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Frank Lyu
2023-05-05
有理有据
Tesla: Charles Munger Made Some Good Points
Frank Lyu
2023-04-20
不怕跌倒，爬起继续前行，人类就是在这一次又一次跌倒爬起中，前行至今的！！
SpaceX星舰发射失败，升空后不久发生爆炸！马斯克最新发声
Frank Lyu
2023-03-14
一派胡言！居然还有这种东西？！
美联储为硅谷银行买单：能否防止金融危机？
Frank Lyu
2022-05-06
分析精准
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Lyu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"有理有据","listText":"有理有据","text":"有理有据","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/656077315","repostId":"2332196408","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2332196408","pubTimestamp":1683271892,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2332196408?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-05-05 15:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Charles Munger Made Some Good Points","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2332196408","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryIt is common knowledge that Charles Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, has concerns","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><ul><li><p>It is common knowledge that Charles Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, has concerns about Tesla, Inc.</p></li><li><p>As a bull on Tesla, I will analyze two of his points to argue against my own thesis.</p></li><li><p>The first point concerns the profit margin, especially when compared to BYD Company Limited.</p></li><li><p>And the second involves Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s execution ability, again especially when compared to BYD CEO Chuanfu Wang.</p></li><li><p>After all, Munger also advised us not to comment on a topic until we can argue against ourselves better than others.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7f84ec515f09c2be8ea04321ba3807\" alt=\"winhorse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\" title=\"winhorse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>winhorse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><h2>Thesis</h2><p>Readers familiar with my writings probably already figured out the following two things about me. First, I have been a long-term bull on <strong>Tesla, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:TSLA). I have authored a series of articles arguing for its long-term potential, not as a car manufacturer, but as a platform. And second, I am very fond of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A) vice chairman Charles Munger both as a person and as an investor. When he speaks, I listen attentively both for life wisdom and investment insights. And a heads-up: you will see me quoting Munger a few times in the remainder of this article. Probably not the best article for you if you hate the man and/or what he says.</p><p>And it just so happens that Charles Munger has made some pretty strong comments regarding Tesla. So, following his tip on fighting ignorance, the thesis of this article is to address two of his points and argue against my own thesis. The purpose is to look for disconfirming evidence for my thesis rather than confirmatory evidence (which is human nature) so that I am more conscious of the risks. And here comes the first Munger quote on fighting ignorance:</p><blockquote><em>Charlie Munger: At times in my life, I have put myself to a standard that I think has helped me: I think I’m not really equipped to comment on this subject until I can state the arguments against my conclusion better than the people on the other side. If you do that all the time; if you’re looking for disconfirming evidence and putting yourself on a grill, that’s a good way to help remove ignorance.</em></blockquote><p>In the remainder of this article, I will concentrate on the following two points: one regarding the profit of Tesla compared to BYD Company Limited (OTCPK:BYDDF), and the other regarding Elon Musk compared to BYD CEO Chuanfu Wang. He’s made many other comments on Tesla, which are also valid. But I think these two are the most relevant ones. And also, it helps to limit the length of this article by focusing on them only.</p><blockquote><strong><em>TSLA’s profit vs BYD’s.</em></strong><em> Munger lauded (see this BusinessInsider report) BYD for growing rapidly in its home market and leaving Musk in the dust. "BYD is so much ahead of Tesla in China it's almost ridiculous," The billionaire investor pointed out that Tesla cut its car prices in China last year, while BYD was able to raise prices.</em> <strong><em>Elon Musk vs. Chuanfu Wang</em></strong><em>: Munger had mixed comments about Musk. And the latest comments made during Daily Journal's annual meeting probably summarized his overall thoughts. He said that "My policy on Elon Musk is that he's a very talented man but also peculiar, so I don't buy him and I don't sell him short." On the other hand, his comments on Wang are one-sided. He praised the man as “a combination of Thomas Edison and Jack Welch – something like Edison in solving technical problems, and something like Welch in getting done what he needs to do. I have never seen anything like it.”</em></blockquote><p>And next, I will elaborate on my thoughts regarding both points. And per my usual style, I will use objective data whenever possible in my analysis.</p><h2>Profit: Hardware vs. Software</h2><p>As Munger commented, it is certainly true that BYD had raised its car prices when TSLA had to cut its prices. However, what has happened in the past two or three years is really not representative given the pandemic, China’s lockdowns, and also the dramatic changes in raw material prices. Furthermore, Tesla has also demonstrated its ability to successfully raise prices without hurting sales.</p><p>Overall, Tesla's profit margin was higher than that of BYD (or other EV makers) as seen from the chart below since 2020. To wit, BYD has been maintaining an average margin of 3% ~ 4%. It is a remarkable margin compared to traditional car makers like Ford Motor Company (F). And the fact that BYD was able to maintain it consistently in a highly competitive and cyclical sector shows its strength. However, since 2020 after Tesla has become profitable, TSLA’s margin is significantly higher than BYD.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/561d0cc018b33c484ff802c46f94ea62\" alt=\"Source: Seeking Alpha data\" title=\"Source: Seeking Alpha data\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha data</span></p><p>Another factor that Munger may have ignored is that the business model for electric vehicles ("EVs") may be very different from traditional cars. As detailed in my earlier article comparing TSLA to YouTube, traditional cars have always been a hardware business. However, the future EV industry could be a platform business, more like the operation software for the PC industry. Musk’s recent comments echoed, and probably also exaggerated this point. He said on a conference call that:</p><blockquote><em>Tesla has the wherewithal to sell cars at zero profit and then earn immense sums later off driverless software. And that “We’re the only ones making cars that technically we could sell for zero profit for now, and then yield actually tremendous economics in the future through autonomy.”</em></blockquote><p>I think it’s too early for TSLA to sell EVs at zero profit. It is well-known that Musk has his own timescale. But I think he is seeing the eventual direction correctly and Tesla is well-poised to capitalize on this potential. As an example, with the rapid maturation and expansion of its autonomous driving technology such as its Full Self-Driving ("FSD") platform (see the chart below), TSLA does have tremendous potential to profit in many related areas. Possibilities are truly limitless. A few immediate ideas include the autonomy software itself, its applications in other autonomous and robotics applications, auto insurance, and also auto-maintenance and after-sell services.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/092b71fd6782d87ee5246db7c23096d2\" alt=\"Source: TESLA.com\" title=\"Source: TESLA.com\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"655\"/><span>Source: TESLA.com</span></p><h2>Chuanfu Wang vs. Elon Musk</h2><p>First, I totally agree with Munger’s comments on both men. I admire Wang as much as Munger. And Munger’s comment that Wang is a combination of Edison and Welch is more insightful than any other comments I’ve heard about Wang. And I also agree that Musk is more peculiar and colorful than Wang, and many of the things that he did/said are simply unlikeable.</p><p>Therefore, the focus here is not on their personalities or vision. Discussions along these lines eventually boil down to objective judgment. Here I will focus more on execution ability, which could be better anchored by data.</p><p>It is well known that Elon Musk's compensation at Tesla is evaluated based on a performance-based compensation plan that was approved by Tesla's shareholders. The compensation plan is designed to incentivize Musk to achieve specific and measurable milestones that are critical to Tesla's success. And Musk has successfully achieved 11 out of the 12 tranches, a good testimony of his executive ability.</p><p>And if you look a bit closer, you will see that Wang and Musk are remarkably similar in their execution and capital allocation. CEO has a couple of knobs to adjust to run their business and two of the key knobs are asset turnover ratio (“ATR”) and leverage. And the next two charts show how these two CEOs are turning these knobs over the years.</p><p>The trends are just remarkably similar – both quantitatively and qualitatively. To wit, both BYD and TSLA have been consistently improving their ATR over the years. Their ATR both hovered around 0.6x a few years ago. And both have steadily improved to ~1.1x now, an improvement of around twofold. To better contextualize things, the ATRs for traditional automakers such as Ford and General Motors (GM) are on average ~0.5x.</p><p>And both CEOs are masters of capital allocation as seen in the second chart. Both BYD and TSLA have dramatically reduced their leverage from the peak level in 2020 (right before the rate hikes began). Among the knobs that CEOs can turn, leverage is a double-edged sword. And I'm always suspicious when a company’s profitability goes up because of the use of more leverage. But clearly, it is not the case here for either one of them. Both CEOs were able to improve profitability (as shown in earlier charts) while reducing leverage significantly.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05f4c8c88daa500b8ad9a6c3352473c5\" alt=\"Source: Seeking Alpha data\" title=\"Source: Seeking Alpha data\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha data</span></p><h2>Risks and final thoughts</h2><p>To conclude, Charlie Munger has made some very good points about Tesla. And he has good reasons to like BYD better. Overall, both stocks have rewarded investors spectacularly over the years, as seen from the chart below. TSLA’s price has appreciated by 755% in the past 5 years, and BYD's price by 344%. Munger and Berkshire entry points into BYD are even earlier and better. The conglomerate invested $232 million into BYD in 2008, and the market value of the investment soared by more than 30 times in 15 years. In Munger’s words, "That's a pretty good rate of return."</p><p>To reiterate, the goal here is not to dismiss Munger’s concerns or to prove him wrong. His comments are valid. The goal is to provide a full view so both bears and bulls are aware of both the upside and downside risks. The downside risks Munger pointed out are 100% valid. TSLA certainly faces fierce competition risks, especially in China. And Musk himself is an uncertainty. In the meantime, due to TSLA’s larger price rally in recent years, the stock is trading at a substantial premium relative to BYD and other EV stocks (see the second chart below).</p><p>However, I won’t recommend investors to be bearish purely on the basis of the valuation metrics for growth stocks. Especially nonlinear growth stocks like TSLA that have the potential to enjoy the platform benefits.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a5e827be8d88abed85f59684615ce94\" alt=\"Source: Seeking Alpha data\" title=\"Source: Seeking Alpha data\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha data</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cefb304c2185442e15105244ccaca800\" alt=\"Source: Seeking Alpha data\" title=\"Source: Seeking Alpha data\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha data</span></p><p>Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Charles Munger Made Some Good Points</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Charles Munger Made Some Good Points\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-05 15:31 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4599905-tesla-charles-munger-made-some-good-points><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryIt is common knowledge that Charles Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, has concerns about Tesla, Inc.As a bull on Tesla, I will analyze two of his points to argue against my own ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4599905-tesla-charles-munger-made-some-good-points\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU0130103400.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA USD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU1201861165.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity PA SGD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU0648000940.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA SGD","BK4176":"多领域控股","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4599905-tesla-charles-munger-made-some-good-points","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2332196408","content_text":"SummaryIt is common knowledge that Charles Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, has concerns about Tesla, Inc.As a bull on Tesla, I will analyze two of his points to argue against my own thesis.The first point concerns the profit margin, especially when compared to BYD Company Limited.And the second involves Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s execution ability, again especially when compared to BYD CEO Chuanfu Wang.After all, Munger also advised us not to comment on a topic until we can argue against ourselves better than others.winhorse/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesThesisReaders familiar with my writings probably already figured out the following two things about me. First, I have been a long-term bull on Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA). I have authored a series of articles arguing for its long-term potential, not as a car manufacturer, but as a platform. And second, I am very fond of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A) vice chairman Charles Munger both as a person and as an investor. When he speaks, I listen attentively both for life wisdom and investment insights. And a heads-up: you will see me quoting Munger a few times in the remainder of this article. Probably not the best article for you if you hate the man and/or what he says.And it just so happens that Charles Munger has made some pretty strong comments regarding Tesla. So, following his tip on fighting ignorance, the thesis of this article is to address two of his points and argue against my own thesis. The purpose is to look for disconfirming evidence for my thesis rather than confirmatory evidence (which is human nature) so that I am more conscious of the risks. And here comes the first Munger quote on fighting ignorance:Charlie Munger: At times in my life, I have put myself to a standard that I think has helped me: I think I’m not really equipped to comment on this subject until I can state the arguments against my conclusion better than the people on the other side. If you do that all the time; if you’re looking for disconfirming evidence and putting yourself on a grill, that’s a good way to help remove ignorance.In the remainder of this article, I will concentrate on the following two points: one regarding the profit of Tesla compared to BYD Company Limited (OTCPK:BYDDF), and the other regarding Elon Musk compared to BYD CEO Chuanfu Wang. He’s made many other comments on Tesla, which are also valid. But I think these two are the most relevant ones. And also, it helps to limit the length of this article by focusing on them only.TSLA’s profit vs BYD’s. Munger lauded (see this BusinessInsider report) BYD for growing rapidly in its home market and leaving Musk in the dust. \"BYD is so much ahead of Tesla in China it's almost ridiculous,\" The billionaire investor pointed out that Tesla cut its car prices in China last year, while BYD was able to raise prices. Elon Musk vs. Chuanfu Wang: Munger had mixed comments about Musk. And the latest comments made during Daily Journal's annual meeting probably summarized his overall thoughts. He said that \"My policy on Elon Musk is that he's a very talented man but also peculiar, so I don't buy him and I don't sell him short.\" On the other hand, his comments on Wang are one-sided. He praised the man as “a combination of Thomas Edison and Jack Welch – something like Edison in solving technical problems, and something like Welch in getting done what he needs to do. I have never seen anything like it.”And next, I will elaborate on my thoughts regarding both points. And per my usual style, I will use objective data whenever possible in my analysis.Profit: Hardware vs. SoftwareAs Munger commented, it is certainly true that BYD had raised its car prices when TSLA had to cut its prices. However, what has happened in the past two or three years is really not representative given the pandemic, China’s lockdowns, and also the dramatic changes in raw material prices. Furthermore, Tesla has also demonstrated its ability to successfully raise prices without hurting sales.Overall, Tesla's profit margin was higher than that of BYD (or other EV makers) as seen from the chart below since 2020. To wit, BYD has been maintaining an average margin of 3% ~ 4%. It is a remarkable margin compared to traditional car makers like Ford Motor Company (F). And the fact that BYD was able to maintain it consistently in a highly competitive and cyclical sector shows its strength. However, since 2020 after Tesla has become profitable, TSLA’s margin is significantly higher than BYD.Source: Seeking Alpha dataAnother factor that Munger may have ignored is that the business model for electric vehicles (\"EVs\") may be very different from traditional cars. As detailed in my earlier article comparing TSLA to YouTube, traditional cars have always been a hardware business. However, the future EV industry could be a platform business, more like the operation software for the PC industry. Musk’s recent comments echoed, and probably also exaggerated this point. He said on a conference call that:Tesla has the wherewithal to sell cars at zero profit and then earn immense sums later off driverless software. And that “We’re the only ones making cars that technically we could sell for zero profit for now, and then yield actually tremendous economics in the future through autonomy.”I think it’s too early for TSLA to sell EVs at zero profit. It is well-known that Musk has his own timescale. But I think he is seeing the eventual direction correctly and Tesla is well-poised to capitalize on this potential. As an example, with the rapid maturation and expansion of its autonomous driving technology such as its Full Self-Driving (\"FSD\") platform (see the chart below), TSLA does have tremendous potential to profit in many related areas. Possibilities are truly limitless. A few immediate ideas include the autonomy software itself, its applications in other autonomous and robotics applications, auto insurance, and also auto-maintenance and after-sell services.Source: TESLA.comChuanfu Wang vs. Elon MuskFirst, I totally agree with Munger’s comments on both men. I admire Wang as much as Munger. And Munger’s comment that Wang is a combination of Edison and Welch is more insightful than any other comments I’ve heard about Wang. And I also agree that Musk is more peculiar and colorful than Wang, and many of the things that he did/said are simply unlikeable.Therefore, the focus here is not on their personalities or vision. Discussions along these lines eventually boil down to objective judgment. Here I will focus more on execution ability, which could be better anchored by data.It is well known that Elon Musk's compensation at Tesla is evaluated based on a performance-based compensation plan that was approved by Tesla's shareholders. The compensation plan is designed to incentivize Musk to achieve specific and measurable milestones that are critical to Tesla's success. And Musk has successfully achieved 11 out of the 12 tranches, a good testimony of his executive ability.And if you look a bit closer, you will see that Wang and Musk are remarkably similar in their execution and capital allocation. CEO has a couple of knobs to adjust to run their business and two of the key knobs are asset turnover ratio (“ATR”) and leverage. And the next two charts show how these two CEOs are turning these knobs over the years.The trends are just remarkably similar – both quantitatively and qualitatively. To wit, both BYD and TSLA have been consistently improving their ATR over the years. Their ATR both hovered around 0.6x a few years ago. And both have steadily improved to ~1.1x now, an improvement of around twofold. To better contextualize things, the ATRs for traditional automakers such as Ford and General Motors (GM) are on average ~0.5x.And both CEOs are masters of capital allocation as seen in the second chart. Both BYD and TSLA have dramatically reduced their leverage from the peak level in 2020 (right before the rate hikes began). Among the knobs that CEOs can turn, leverage is a double-edged sword. And I'm always suspicious when a company’s profitability goes up because of the use of more leverage. But clearly, it is not the case here for either one of them. Both CEOs were able to improve profitability (as shown in earlier charts) while reducing leverage significantly.Source: Seeking Alpha dataRisks and final thoughtsTo conclude, Charlie Munger has made some very good points about Tesla. And he has good reasons to like BYD better. Overall, both stocks have rewarded investors spectacularly over the years, as seen from the chart below. TSLA’s price has appreciated by 755% in the past 5 years, and BYD's price by 344%. Munger and Berkshire entry points into BYD are even earlier and better. The conglomerate invested $232 million into BYD in 2008, and the market value of the investment soared by more than 30 times in 15 years. In Munger’s words, \"That's a pretty good rate of return.\"To reiterate, the goal here is not to dismiss Munger’s concerns or to prove him wrong. His comments are valid. The goal is to provide a full view so both bears and bulls are aware of both the upside and downside risks. The downside risks Munger pointed out are 100% valid. TSLA certainly faces fierce competition risks, especially in China. And Musk himself is an uncertainty. In the meantime, due to TSLA’s larger price rally in recent years, the stock is trading at a substantial premium relative to BYD and other EV stocks (see the second chart below).However, I won’t recommend investors to be bearish purely on the basis of the valuation metrics for growth stocks. Especially nonlinear growth stocks like TSLA that have the potential to enjoy the platform benefits.Source: Seeking Alpha dataSource: Seeking Alpha dataEditor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":581,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":651438130,"gmtCreate":1682000315020,"gmtModify":1682000601330,"author":{"id":"4113970338725900","authorId":"4113970338725900","name":"Frank Lyu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不怕跌倒，爬起继续前行，人类就是在这一次又一次跌倒爬起中，前行至今的！！","listText":"不怕跌倒，爬起继续前行，人类就是在这一次又一次跌倒爬起中，前行至今的！！","text":"不怕跌倒，爬起继续前行，人类就是在这一次又一次跌倒爬起中，前行至今的！！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/651438130","repostId":"1149873880","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149873880","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1681998133,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149873880?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-04-20 21:42","market":"other","language":"zh","title":" SpaceX星舰发射失败，升空后不久发生爆炸！马斯克最新发声","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149873880","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"今晚，全球瞩目，马斯克的最强火箭——星舰发射升空！北京时间4月20日21时33分，“星舰”在美国得克萨斯州发射升空，但在升空后不久发生爆炸。随后SpaceX宣布，SpaceX的星舰和推进器未能分离。疑似是对此次发射失败的原因分析。北京时间22时01分，马斯克在社交媒体上表示，祝贺SpaceX团队完成了激动人心的星舰首次飞行测试，为几个月后的下一次发射测试学到了很多东西。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>今晚，全球瞩目，马斯克的最强火箭——星舰发射升空！不过，失败了。</p><p>北京时间4月20日21时33分，“星舰”在美国得克萨斯州发射升空，但在升空后不久发生爆炸。随后SpaceX宣布，SpaceX的星舰和推进器未能分离。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd4c345cc8d1f833bb1fed28ab2531a8\" alt=\"图片\"/></p><p>在火箭爆炸后，北京时间21时45分，太空探索技术公司发文称，“今天的测试将帮助我们提高星舰的可靠性，我们致力于让生命在不同的星球上生存。”随后，该公司又发文称，“仿佛飞行测试还不够刺激，星舰在分离阶段之前经历了一次猛烈的计划外解体（unscheduled disassembly）。”疑似是对此次发射失败的原因分析。</p><p>北京时间22时01分，马斯克在社交媒体上表示，祝贺SpaceX团队完成了激动人心的星舰首次飞行测试，为几个月后的下一次发射测试学到了很多东西。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d2c6359c0246b8aa75385345a70c02\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"597\" tg-height=\"433\"/></p><p>“星舰”是SpaceX公司正在研发的一款重型运载火箭，采用可重复使用设计，该火箭由两部分组成：起飞级和第二级的“星舰”飞船，起飞级被命名为“超级重型助推器”，并联安装了33台，火箭整体高120米，最大推力约7600吨，最大运载能力超过200吨，被认为是人类史上运载能力最大的火箭。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">星舰官方全称为“星舰深空火箭系统（Starship Deep-Space Rocket System）”，由一级助推器“超重（Super Heavy）”和上面级“星舰”组成。所以实际上“星舰”可以指整个系统，也可以是指上面级。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">星舰的一级助推器高69米，直径9米，搭配了多达33台第二代海平面版猛禽发动机，发动机采用液氧/甲烷作为推进剂，每台发动机可以产生约230吨的推力，星舰整个一级助推器最高可以产生高达7590吨推力，是曾经世界上最大的火箭——土星五号推力的2.5倍。作为人类历史上最大推力的火箭，这也是今天发射的最大亮点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">星舰上面级高度50米，直径9米，配备了3台海平面版猛禽发动机和3台真空版猛禽发动机。上面级也是提供集成有效载荷的部分，有能力搭载100-150吨的载荷送入LEO轨道，将人员和货物运送到地球轨道、甚至月球、火星等地方。星舰还能够在地球上进行点对点运输，可以一个小时内到达地球上任何一个地方。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1530848c42f71201dd6f75e3f85f553c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"517\" tg-height=\"593\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>所以星舰系统的最终目标，就是带着人和货物前往火星并建立基地。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在17日之前，星舰上面级已经单独完成了多次高空飞行测试，而这次进行的发射是“星舰深空火箭系统（Starship Deep-Space Rocket System）”首次轨道级测试，星舰第一次以“完全体”的姿态进行发射测试。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44ce048fbbe7e3ac15c00dad257d17b8\" title=\"配备 33 个发动机的助推器\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\"/><span>配备 33 个发动机的助推器</span></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title> SpaceX星舰发射失败，升空后不久发生爆炸！马斯克最新发声</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n SpaceX星舰发射失败，升空后不久发生爆炸！马斯克最新发声\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-04-20 21:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>今晚，全球瞩目，马斯克的最强火箭——星舰发射升空！不过，失败了。</p><p>北京时间4月20日21时33分，“星舰”在美国得克萨斯州发射升空，但在升空后不久发生爆炸。随后SpaceX宣布，SpaceX的星舰和推进器未能分离。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd4c345cc8d1f833bb1fed28ab2531a8\" alt=\"图片\"/></p><p>在火箭爆炸后，北京时间21时45分，太空探索技术公司发文称，“今天的测试将帮助我们提高星舰的可靠性，我们致力于让生命在不同的星球上生存。”随后，该公司又发文称，“仿佛飞行测试还不够刺激，星舰在分离阶段之前经历了一次猛烈的计划外解体（unscheduled disassembly）。”疑似是对此次发射失败的原因分析。</p><p>北京时间22时01分，马斯克在社交媒体上表示，祝贺SpaceX团队完成了激动人心的星舰首次飞行测试，为几个月后的下一次发射测试学到了很多东西。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d2c6359c0246b8aa75385345a70c02\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"597\" tg-height=\"433\"/></p><p>“星舰”是SpaceX公司正在研发的一款重型运载火箭，采用可重复使用设计，该火箭由两部分组成：起飞级和第二级的“星舰”飞船，起飞级被命名为“超级重型助推器”，并联安装了33台，火箭整体高120米，最大推力约7600吨，最大运载能力超过200吨，被认为是人类史上运载能力最大的火箭。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">星舰官方全称为“星舰深空火箭系统（Starship Deep-Space Rocket System）”，由一级助推器“超重（Super Heavy）”和上面级“星舰”组成。所以实际上“星舰”可以指整个系统，也可以是指上面级。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">星舰的一级助推器高69米，直径9米，搭配了多达33台第二代海平面版猛禽发动机，发动机采用液氧/甲烷作为推进剂，每台发动机可以产生约230吨的推力，星舰整个一级助推器最高可以产生高达7590吨推力，是曾经世界上最大的火箭——土星五号推力的2.5倍。作为人类历史上最大推力的火箭，这也是今天发射的最大亮点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">星舰上面级高度50米，直径9米，配备了3台海平面版猛禽发动机和3台真空版猛禽发动机。上面级也是提供集成有效载荷的部分，有能力搭载100-150吨的载荷送入LEO轨道，将人员和货物运送到地球轨道、甚至月球、火星等地方。星舰还能够在地球上进行点对点运输，可以一个小时内到达地球上任何一个地方。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1530848c42f71201dd6f75e3f85f553c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"517\" tg-height=\"593\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>所以星舰系统的最终目标，就是带着人和货物前往火星并建立基地。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在17日之前，星舰上面级已经单独完成了多次高空飞行测试，而这次进行的发射是“星舰深空火箭系统（Starship Deep-Space Rocket System）”首次轨道级测试，星舰第一次以“完全体”的姿态进行发射测试。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44ce048fbbe7e3ac15c00dad257d17b8\" title=\"配备 33 个发动机的助推器\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\"/><span>配备 33 个发动机的助推器</span></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ce7edd5f87306c0e8062bd108670952","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149873880","content_text":"今晚，全球瞩目，马斯克的最强火箭——星舰发射升空！不过，失败了。北京时间4月20日21时33分，“星舰”在美国得克萨斯州发射升空，但在升空后不久发生爆炸。随后SpaceX宣布，SpaceX的星舰和推进器未能分离。在火箭爆炸后，北京时间21时45分，太空探索技术公司发文称，“今天的测试将帮助我们提高星舰的可靠性，我们致力于让生命在不同的星球上生存。”随后，该公司又发文称，“仿佛飞行测试还不够刺激，星舰在分离阶段之前经历了一次猛烈的计划外解体（unscheduled disassembly）。”疑似是对此次发射失败的原因分析。北京时间22时01分，马斯克在社交媒体上表示，祝贺SpaceX团队完成了激动人心的星舰首次飞行测试，为几个月后的下一次发射测试学到了很多东西。“星舰”是SpaceX公司正在研发的一款重型运载火箭，采用可重复使用设计，该火箭由两部分组成：起飞级和第二级的“星舰”飞船，起飞级被命名为“超级重型助推器”，并联安装了33台，火箭整体高120米，最大推力约7600吨，最大运载能力超过200吨，被认为是人类史上运载能力最大的火箭。星舰官方全称为“星舰深空火箭系统（Starship Deep-Space Rocket System）”，由一级助推器“超重（Super Heavy）”和上面级“星舰”组成。所以实际上“星舰”可以指整个系统，也可以是指上面级。星舰的一级助推器高69米，直径9米，搭配了多达33台第二代海平面版猛禽发动机，发动机采用液氧/甲烷作为推进剂，每台发动机可以产生约230吨的推力，星舰整个一级助推器最高可以产生高达7590吨推力，是曾经世界上最大的火箭——土星五号推力的2.5倍。作为人类历史上最大推力的火箭，这也是今天发射的最大亮点。星舰上面级高度50米，直径9米，配备了3台海平面版猛禽发动机和3台真空版猛禽发动机。上面级也是提供集成有效载荷的部分，有能力搭载100-150吨的载荷送入LEO轨道，将人员和货物运送到地球轨道、甚至月球、火星等地方。星舰还能够在地球上进行点对点运输，可以一个小时内到达地球上任何一个地方。所以星舰系统的最终目标，就是带着人和货物前往火星并建立基地。在17日之前，星舰上面级已经单独完成了多次高空飞行测试，而这次进行的发射是“星舰深空火箭系统（Starship Deep-Space Rocket System）”首次轨道级测试，星舰第一次以“完全体”的姿态进行发射测试。配备 33 个发动机的助推器","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":623,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":650905492,"gmtCreate":1678798860616,"gmtModify":1678799306893,"author":{"id":"4113970338725900","authorId":"4113970338725900","name":"Frank Lyu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"一派胡言！居然还有这种东西？！","listText":"一派胡言！居然还有这种东西？！","text":"一派胡言！居然还有这种东西？！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/650905492","repostId":"1185555153","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185555153","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"预判经济形势，解读公共政策，提供及时信息，推送专业报告。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"泽平宏观","id":"49","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/947583bee22e443aa795464217837990"},"pubTimestamp":1678761902,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185555153?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-14 10:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储为硅谷银行买单：能否防止金融危机？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185555153","media":"泽平宏观","summary":"美国时间2023年3月12日晚，美国财政部、美联储和联邦存款保险公司联合发表声明：1、允许联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）以全额保护所有存款人的方式完成对硅谷银行的清算。存款人将从3月13日开始获得他们的","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美国时间2023年3月12日晚，美国财政部、美联储和联邦存款保险公司联合发表声明：</p><blockquote>1、允许联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）以全额保护所有存款人的方式完成对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">硅谷银行</a>的清算。存款人将从3月13日开始获得他们的全额资金，硅谷银行的清算不会由纳税人承担任何损失。同样应用于今天关闭的纽约市<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBNY\">Signature Bank</a>。</blockquote><blockquote>2、相对应的，股东和部分次级债权(unsecured)拥有人则无法获得保护，高级管理人员也已经被撤职。</blockquote><blockquote>3、美联储宣布，将向符合条件的存款机构提供额外资金。美联储将创建新的银行期限资金计划（BTFP），向银行、储蓄协会、信用合作社和在美国的国外银行分行等存款机构提供最长为一年的贷款。</blockquote><blockquote>4、财政部将从外汇稳定基金中提供高达250亿美元的资金支持BTFP。</blockquote><p><b>1、美国财政部、美联储、联邦存款保险公司联合出手，为硅谷银行储户兜底，遏制危机升级</b></p><p><b>针对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>风险事件，美国应对措施：1）联邦存款保险公司（FDIC)释放存款保险基金（DIF），为储户兜底；2）推出银行期限资金计划（BTFP），为银行提供流动性支持。短期看，两项措施或较有效的解决初现苗头的美国银行挤兑潮，同时缓和市场情绪。</b></p><p>具体来看：</p><p><b>1）针对已经被托管的银行，除开将其资产变卖以筹措资金外，其余的资金缺口将通过FDIC的存款保险基金（DIF）补齐，保证了储户的资产。</b>截至2022年底，FDIC共有保费1288亿美元。</p><p><b>但也会带来一定的风险。如果未来FDIC需要获得更多的保费收入，可能会促使银行系统储备更多的现金及其等价物，银行中期来看面临隐性流动性问题。</b></p><p>举例来说，DIF保费有三个补充的渠道，第一是收取一次性特别保费，第二是提前收取保费，第三个是向财政部借款。2009年6月，FDIC收取了特别保费共计55亿美元，对整体银行业流动性带来了一定压力；2009年12月，FDIC收取了提前保费共计45.7亿美元，进一步限制了在危机情形下银行的信贷能力。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f73556cb9b98de09bec3bbc0f7200b57\" tg-width=\"1033\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2）美联储新推出的银行期限资金计划（BTFP），通过高质量证券抵押贴现的方式向银行的准备金账户注入流动性。</b>抵押品主要以美债、机构债和抵押贷款支持证券等资产为主；且这些资产的抵押价值将以面值计算，利率为OIS + 10bp；不设置单一机构使用的上限，且允许机构提前还款。<b>这意味着，相较于贴现窗口（Discount Window）和常规回购工具（Standing Repo Facility），向BTFP借款可以获得更多的现金流动性。</b></p><p><b>在当前金融环境收紧和流动性压力增加的时期，BTFP缓解<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">金融机构</a>在市场上折价出售这些高质量证券回升流动性的压力。同时，美联储的资产端收到抵押的证券，负债端增加银行等金融机构的准备金，整个资产负债表也会再次小幅扩张。</b></p><p><b>2、厨房里不止一只蟑螂：美国面临的是整个银行业危机和流动性危机</b></p><p><b>美国硅谷银行、Signature银行、以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">第一共和银行</a>连续暴雷。这仅仅是美国银行业风险的冰山一角，美联储面临的是整个银行业危机和流动性危机。</b></p><p><b>美联储过去两年直升机撒钱。</b>2020年3月美联储推出无限量量化宽松，随后承诺将长时间维持0利率水平。截至2022年3月美联储宣布加息时，其资产负债表累计增长110%，达到9万亿峰值。其中准备金、财政部一般账户以及衡量剩余流动性的隔夜逆回购用量分别增长135%、57%以及712%。</p><p><b>银行在流动性过剩的环境下大量购入美国国债。</b>在2020年全球大放水的环境下，银行贷款需求疲软，银行资金无处可去。2019年第四季度至2022年第四季度期间，美国银行业存款增加了超过5万亿美元，其中仅14%被用于贷款。同时，隔夜逆回购账户、货币市场基金和T-Bills等收益较低。现金存入美联储隔夜逆回购账户只能获得约5bp-15bp的年化收益，货币市场基金与T-Bills也仅有不到20bp的年化收益。截至2022年3月15日美联储宣布加息前，美国商业银行持有国债约4.6万亿美元，较量化宽松开始前增加53%。</p><p><b>2022年3月，美联储开启激进加息，银行资产端缩水、负债端储蓄流出，陷入流动性紧张。</b>截至2023年3月，美联储累计加息450个基点，导致美债收益率快速飙升。此前在流动性宽松背景下大量购买的美债资产价格出现大幅下跌，被归类为可出售资产（AFS）的美国国债开始出现浮亏。根据FDIC数据，截至2022年第四季度，美国银行系统内未实现损失约为6200亿美元，其中可售国债及证券约为2795亿美元。</p><p><b>从目前美联储公布的工具以及解决方案来看，仅对银行资产端起到了托底的作用，但对负债端储蓄流出的风险没有进行有效抑制。</b></p><p><b>美联储要打扫所有战场，能否防止金融危机，取决于美联储能否应对及时、阻止传染链条、以及获取市场信任。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbdcfb5edabd0bdc3b8c18e9e2ec9695\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3、美联储宣称不必纳税人负担，究竟谁买单？</b></p><p><b>美国财长耶伦表示“硅谷银行的清算不会由纳税人承担任何损失”，从表象上确实如此：无论是救助被托管银行的FDIC保费收入，还是对流动性进行补充的BTFP都不直接来自于政府支出。</b></p><p><b>事实是，所有的债务重组多数是债务货币化，最终都由超发货币进而稀释纳税人承担。</b></p><p>历史经验表明，硅谷银行等被托管银行进行债务重组和处置的过程往往需要货币化，即获得财政部、美联储、FDIC为其提供的额外资本。属于变相超发货币的行为。</p><p><b>货币超发带来高通胀，稀释居民购买力。同时，为了抑制高通胀，美国加息，带来强美元周期，全球买单。</b></p><p>疫情以来，美联储的资产负债表翻了近三倍，最高达到了超9万亿美元，导致了美国通胀高企、激进加息、强美元周期。高通胀严重损害了美国居民部门的购买力。同时，美国在收割全球非美经济体、压制非美经济体的经济增长动能。</p><p><b>这背后是美元霸权。</b>美国经济占世界经济22%左右，贸易量占全球贸易13%左右，但以美元计价的交易占了50%，美元外汇储备占了60%，以美元计价的跨境信贷占了50%。</p><p><b>美元霸权存在深层次问题，给美国自身和外围国家均施加桎梏，短期难以撼动，但长期难以维系。</b>对内，低储蓄和高消费模式下，美国深受贸易逆差、产业空心化困扰，巨额债务和财政赤字攀升，收入差距拉大。对外，美国控制全球跨境支付系统，频繁实施金融制裁，冻结资产，利用对国际组织的表决权，限制他国的融资渠道和融资条件，<b>向全世界征收铸币税，输出通胀使债务贬值，稀释各国积累的外汇储备，其他经济体被迫承受输入性通货膨胀、债权贬值和金融波动。</b></p><p><b>而现在硅谷银行的暴雷正是对其金融业和新贵资本的反噬，以及对美联储无限量QE的清算。</b></p><p><b>当前中国正处于复苏的通道，打铁还得自身硬，中国当务之急是发展经济，全力拼经济。发展是防风险最好的根基。如果能够启动以新基建新能源领先的扩大内需经济复苏计划，有望化危为机，就像2009年一样，如果应对有力，2023年中国经济有望重新引领全球。</b></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储为硅谷银行买单：能否防止金融危机？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/49\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/947583bee22e443aa795464217837990);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">泽平宏观 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-03-14 10:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>美国时间2023年3月12日晚，美国财政部、美联储和联邦存款保险公司联合发表声明：</p><blockquote>1、允许联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）以全额保护所有存款人的方式完成对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">硅谷银行</a>的清算。存款人将从3月13日开始获得他们的全额资金，硅谷银行的清算不会由纳税人承担任何损失。同样应用于今天关闭的纽约市<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBNY\">Signature Bank</a>。</blockquote><blockquote>2、相对应的，股东和部分次级债权(unsecured)拥有人则无法获得保护，高级管理人员也已经被撤职。</blockquote><blockquote>3、美联储宣布，将向符合条件的存款机构提供额外资金。美联储将创建新的银行期限资金计划（BTFP），向银行、储蓄协会、信用合作社和在美国的国外银行分行等存款机构提供最长为一年的贷款。</blockquote><blockquote>4、财政部将从外汇稳定基金中提供高达250亿美元的资金支持BTFP。</blockquote><p><b>1、美国财政部、美联储、联邦存款保险公司联合出手，为硅谷银行储户兜底，遏制危机升级</b></p><p><b>针对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>风险事件，美国应对措施：1）联邦存款保险公司（FDIC)释放存款保险基金（DIF），为储户兜底；2）推出银行期限资金计划（BTFP），为银行提供流动性支持。短期看，两项措施或较有效的解决初现苗头的美国银行挤兑潮，同时缓和市场情绪。</b></p><p>具体来看：</p><p><b>1）针对已经被托管的银行，除开将其资产变卖以筹措资金外，其余的资金缺口将通过FDIC的存款保险基金（DIF）补齐，保证了储户的资产。</b>截至2022年底，FDIC共有保费1288亿美元。</p><p><b>但也会带来一定的风险。如果未来FDIC需要获得更多的保费收入，可能会促使银行系统储备更多的现金及其等价物，银行中期来看面临隐性流动性问题。</b></p><p>举例来说，DIF保费有三个补充的渠道，第一是收取一次性特别保费，第二是提前收取保费，第三个是向财政部借款。2009年6月，FDIC收取了特别保费共计55亿美元，对整体银行业流动性带来了一定压力；2009年12月，FDIC收取了提前保费共计45.7亿美元，进一步限制了在危机情形下银行的信贷能力。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f73556cb9b98de09bec3bbc0f7200b57\" tg-width=\"1033\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2）美联储新推出的银行期限资金计划（BTFP），通过高质量证券抵押贴现的方式向银行的准备金账户注入流动性。</b>抵押品主要以美债、机构债和抵押贷款支持证券等资产为主；且这些资产的抵押价值将以面值计算，利率为OIS + 10bp；不设置单一机构使用的上限，且允许机构提前还款。<b>这意味着，相较于贴现窗口（Discount Window）和常规回购工具（Standing Repo Facility），向BTFP借款可以获得更多的现金流动性。</b></p><p><b>在当前金融环境收紧和流动性压力增加的时期，BTFP缓解<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">金融机构</a>在市场上折价出售这些高质量证券回升流动性的压力。同时，美联储的资产端收到抵押的证券，负债端增加银行等金融机构的准备金，整个资产负债表也会再次小幅扩张。</b></p><p><b>2、厨房里不止一只蟑螂：美国面临的是整个银行业危机和流动性危机</b></p><p><b>美国硅谷银行、Signature银行、以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">第一共和银行</a>连续暴雷。这仅仅是美国银行业风险的冰山一角，美联储面临的是整个银行业危机和流动性危机。</b></p><p><b>美联储过去两年直升机撒钱。</b>2020年3月美联储推出无限量量化宽松，随后承诺将长时间维持0利率水平。截至2022年3月美联储宣布加息时，其资产负债表累计增长110%，达到9万亿峰值。其中准备金、财政部一般账户以及衡量剩余流动性的隔夜逆回购用量分别增长135%、57%以及712%。</p><p><b>银行在流动性过剩的环境下大量购入美国国债。</b>在2020年全球大放水的环境下，银行贷款需求疲软，银行资金无处可去。2019年第四季度至2022年第四季度期间，美国银行业存款增加了超过5万亿美元，其中仅14%被用于贷款。同时，隔夜逆回购账户、货币市场基金和T-Bills等收益较低。现金存入美联储隔夜逆回购账户只能获得约5bp-15bp的年化收益，货币市场基金与T-Bills也仅有不到20bp的年化收益。截至2022年3月15日美联储宣布加息前，美国商业银行持有国债约4.6万亿美元，较量化宽松开始前增加53%。</p><p><b>2022年3月，美联储开启激进加息，银行资产端缩水、负债端储蓄流出，陷入流动性紧张。</b>截至2023年3月，美联储累计加息450个基点，导致美债收益率快速飙升。此前在流动性宽松背景下大量购买的美债资产价格出现大幅下跌，被归类为可出售资产（AFS）的美国国债开始出现浮亏。根据FDIC数据，截至2022年第四季度，美国银行系统内未实现损失约为6200亿美元，其中可售国债及证券约为2795亿美元。</p><p><b>从目前美联储公布的工具以及解决方案来看，仅对银行资产端起到了托底的作用，但对负债端储蓄流出的风险没有进行有效抑制。</b></p><p><b>美联储要打扫所有战场，能否防止金融危机，取决于美联储能否应对及时、阻止传染链条、以及获取市场信任。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbdcfb5edabd0bdc3b8c18e9e2ec9695\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3、美联储宣称不必纳税人负担，究竟谁买单？</b></p><p><b>美国财长耶伦表示“硅谷银行的清算不会由纳税人承担任何损失”，从表象上确实如此：无论是救助被托管银行的FDIC保费收入，还是对流动性进行补充的BTFP都不直接来自于政府支出。</b></p><p><b>事实是，所有的债务重组多数是债务货币化，最终都由超发货币进而稀释纳税人承担。</b></p><p>历史经验表明，硅谷银行等被托管银行进行债务重组和处置的过程往往需要货币化，即获得财政部、美联储、FDIC为其提供的额外资本。属于变相超发货币的行为。</p><p><b>货币超发带来高通胀，稀释居民购买力。同时，为了抑制高通胀，美国加息，带来强美元周期，全球买单。</b></p><p>疫情以来，美联储的资产负债表翻了近三倍，最高达到了超9万亿美元，导致了美国通胀高企、激进加息、强美元周期。高通胀严重损害了美国居民部门的购买力。同时，美国在收割全球非美经济体、压制非美经济体的经济增长动能。</p><p><b>这背后是美元霸权。</b>美国经济占世界经济22%左右，贸易量占全球贸易13%左右，但以美元计价的交易占了50%，美元外汇储备占了60%，以美元计价的跨境信贷占了50%。</p><p><b>美元霸权存在深层次问题，给美国自身和外围国家均施加桎梏，短期难以撼动，但长期难以维系。</b>对内，低储蓄和高消费模式下，美国深受贸易逆差、产业空心化困扰，巨额债务和财政赤字攀升，收入差距拉大。对外，美国控制全球跨境支付系统，频繁实施金融制裁，冻结资产，利用对国际组织的表决权，限制他国的融资渠道和融资条件，<b>向全世界征收铸币税，输出通胀使债务贬值，稀释各国积累的外汇储备，其他经济体被迫承受输入性通货膨胀、债权贬值和金融波动。</b></p><p><b>而现在硅谷银行的暴雷正是对其金融业和新贵资本的反噬，以及对美联储无限量QE的清算。</b></p><p><b>当前中国正处于复苏的通道，打铁还得自身硬，中国当务之急是发展经济，全力拼经济。发展是防风险最好的根基。如果能够启动以新基建新能源领先的扩大内需经济复苏计划，有望化危为机，就像2009年一样，如果应对有力，2023年中国经济有望重新引领全球。</b></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","LU1861217088.USD":"贝莱德金融科技A2","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","LU1861220207.SGD":"Blackrock FinTech A2 SGD-H",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","LU0390134368.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","DOG":"道指反向ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","DJX":"1/100道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185555153","content_text":"美国时间2023年3月12日晚，美国财政部、美联储和联邦存款保险公司联合发表声明：1、允许联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）以全额保护所有存款人的方式完成对硅谷银行的清算。存款人将从3月13日开始获得他们的全额资金，硅谷银行的清算不会由纳税人承担任何损失。同样应用于今天关闭的纽约市Signature Bank。2、相对应的，股东和部分次级债权(unsecured)拥有人则无法获得保护，高级管理人员也已经被撤职。3、美联储宣布，将向符合条件的存款机构提供额外资金。美联储将创建新的银行期限资金计划（BTFP），向银行、储蓄协会、信用合作社和在美国的国外银行分行等存款机构提供最长为一年的贷款。4、财政部将从外汇稳定基金中提供高达250亿美元的资金支持BTFP。1、美国财政部、美联储、联邦存款保险公司联合出手，为硅谷银行储户兜底，遏制危机升级针对美国银行风险事件，美国应对措施：1）联邦存款保险公司（FDIC)释放存款保险基金（DIF），为储户兜底；2）推出银行期限资金计划（BTFP），为银行提供流动性支持。短期看，两项措施或较有效的解决初现苗头的美国银行挤兑潮，同时缓和市场情绪。具体来看：1）针对已经被托管的银行，除开将其资产变卖以筹措资金外，其余的资金缺口将通过FDIC的存款保险基金（DIF）补齐，保证了储户的资产。截至2022年底，FDIC共有保费1288亿美元。但也会带来一定的风险。如果未来FDIC需要获得更多的保费收入，可能会促使银行系统储备更多的现金及其等价物，银行中期来看面临隐性流动性问题。举例来说，DIF保费有三个补充的渠道，第一是收取一次性特别保费，第二是提前收取保费，第三个是向财政部借款。2009年6月，FDIC收取了特别保费共计55亿美元，对整体银行业流动性带来了一定压力；2009年12月，FDIC收取了提前保费共计45.7亿美元，进一步限制了在危机情形下银行的信贷能力。2）美联储新推出的银行期限资金计划（BTFP），通过高质量证券抵押贴现的方式向银行的准备金账户注入流动性。抵押品主要以美债、机构债和抵押贷款支持证券等资产为主；且这些资产的抵押价值将以面值计算，利率为OIS + 10bp；不设置单一机构使用的上限，且允许机构提前还款。这意味着，相较于贴现窗口（Discount Window）和常规回购工具（Standing Repo Facility），向BTFP借款可以获得更多的现金流动性。在当前金融环境收紧和流动性压力增加的时期，BTFP缓解金融机构在市场上折价出售这些高质量证券回升流动性的压力。同时，美联储的资产端收到抵押的证券，负债端增加银行等金融机构的准备金，整个资产负债表也会再次小幅扩张。2、厨房里不止一只蟑螂：美国面临的是整个银行业危机和流动性危机美国硅谷银行、Signature银行、以及第一共和银行连续暴雷。这仅仅是美国银行业风险的冰山一角，美联储面临的是整个银行业危机和流动性危机。美联储过去两年直升机撒钱。2020年3月美联储推出无限量量化宽松，随后承诺将长时间维持0利率水平。截至2022年3月美联储宣布加息时，其资产负债表累计增长110%，达到9万亿峰值。其中准备金、财政部一般账户以及衡量剩余流动性的隔夜逆回购用量分别增长135%、57%以及712%。银行在流动性过剩的环境下大量购入美国国债。在2020年全球大放水的环境下，银行贷款需求疲软，银行资金无处可去。2019年第四季度至2022年第四季度期间，美国银行业存款增加了超过5万亿美元，其中仅14%被用于贷款。同时，隔夜逆回购账户、货币市场基金和T-Bills等收益较低。现金存入美联储隔夜逆回购账户只能获得约5bp-15bp的年化收益，货币市场基金与T-Bills也仅有不到20bp的年化收益。截至2022年3月15日美联储宣布加息前，美国商业银行持有国债约4.6万亿美元，较量化宽松开始前增加53%。2022年3月，美联储开启激进加息，银行资产端缩水、负债端储蓄流出，陷入流动性紧张。截至2023年3月，美联储累计加息450个基点，导致美债收益率快速飙升。此前在流动性宽松背景下大量购买的美债资产价格出现大幅下跌，被归类为可出售资产（AFS）的美国国债开始出现浮亏。根据FDIC数据，截至2022年第四季度，美国银行系统内未实现损失约为6200亿美元，其中可售国债及证券约为2795亿美元。从目前美联储公布的工具以及解决方案来看，仅对银行资产端起到了托底的作用，但对负债端储蓄流出的风险没有进行有效抑制。美联储要打扫所有战场，能否防止金融危机，取决于美联储能否应对及时、阻止传染链条、以及获取市场信任。3、美联储宣称不必纳税人负担，究竟谁买单？美国财长耶伦表示“硅谷银行的清算不会由纳税人承担任何损失”，从表象上确实如此：无论是救助被托管银行的FDIC保费收入，还是对流动性进行补充的BTFP都不直接来自于政府支出。事实是，所有的债务重组多数是债务货币化，最终都由超发货币进而稀释纳税人承担。历史经验表明，硅谷银行等被托管银行进行债务重组和处置的过程往往需要货币化，即获得财政部、美联储、FDIC为其提供的额外资本。属于变相超发货币的行为。货币超发带来高通胀，稀释居民购买力。同时，为了抑制高通胀，美国加息，带来强美元周期，全球买单。疫情以来，美联储的资产负债表翻了近三倍，最高达到了超9万亿美元，导致了美国通胀高企、激进加息、强美元周期。高通胀严重损害了美国居民部门的购买力。同时，美国在收割全球非美经济体、压制非美经济体的经济增长动能。这背后是美元霸权。美国经济占世界经济22%左右，贸易量占全球贸易13%左右，但以美元计价的交易占了50%，美元外汇储备占了60%，以美元计价的跨境信贷占了50%。美元霸权存在深层次问题，给美国自身和外围国家均施加桎梏，短期难以撼动，但长期难以维系。对内，低储蓄和高消费模式下，美国深受贸易逆差、产业空心化困扰，巨额债务和财政赤字攀升，收入差距拉大。对外，美国控制全球跨境支付系统，频繁实施金融制裁，冻结资产，利用对国际组织的表决权，限制他国的融资渠道和融资条件，向全世界征收铸币税，输出通胀使债务贬值，稀释各国积累的外汇储备，其他经济体被迫承受输入性通货膨胀、债权贬值和金融波动。而现在硅谷银行的暴雷正是对其金融业和新贵资本的反噬，以及对美联储无限量QE的清算。当前中国正处于复苏的通道，打铁还得自身硬，中国当务之急是发展经济，全力拼经济。发展是防风险最好的根基。如果能够启动以新基建新能源领先的扩大内需经济复苏计划，有望化危为机，就像2009年一样，如果应对有力，2023年中国经济有望重新引领全球。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":763,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":616550653,"gmtCreate":1651841127672,"gmtModify":1651844036544,"author":{"id":"4113970338725900","authorId":"4113970338725900","name":"Frank 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Lyu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不怕跌倒，爬起继续前行，人类就是在这一次又一次跌倒爬起中，前行至今的！！","listText":"不怕跌倒，爬起继续前行，人类就是在这一次又一次跌倒爬起中，前行至今的！！","text":"不怕跌倒，爬起继续前行，人类就是在这一次又一次跌倒爬起中，前行至今的！！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/651438130","repostId":"1149873880","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":623,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":656077315,"gmtCreate":1683255827337,"gmtModify":1683255829032,"author":{"id":"4113970338725900","authorId":"4113970338725900","name":"Frank Lyu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"有理有据","listText":"有理有据","text":"有理有据","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/656077315","repostId":"2332196408","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":581,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":650905492,"gmtCreate":1678798860616,"gmtModify":1678799306893,"author":{"id":"4113970338725900","authorId":"4113970338725900","name":"Frank Lyu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"一派胡言！居然还有这种东西？！","listText":"一派胡言！居然还有这种东西？！","text":"一派胡言！居然还有这种东西？！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/650905492","repostId":"1185555153","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":763,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":616550653,"gmtCreate":1651841127672,"gmtModify":1651844036544,"author":{"id":"4113970338725900","authorId":"4113970338725900","name":"Frank Lyu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"分析精准","listText":"分析精准","text":"分析精准","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/616550653","repostId":"1145571254","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145571254","pubTimestamp":1651805683,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145571254?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-06 10:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股大跌的背后：不只是通胀和美联储，还有更深层次的变化","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145571254","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"数字化浪潮并未真正地提高整体生产效率。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者：赵颖</p><p>美股上演了一场“惊天大逆转”，前一日还暴力拉升、加速上涨，为排除激进加息的可能性而欢呼，次日人们就争先恐后地抛售，美股开始暴跌狂泻。</p><p>美股标普500指数跌超3.9%、道指狂泄逾千点、科技股为主的纳指跌超5%，创下2020年以来的最大单日跌幅。</p><p>而股市下跌的背后，除了高通胀和美联储更激进的“收水”之外，还有更深层次的原因。《华尔街日报》在最新的报道中指出，<b>美国经济已经进入了后疫情时代的新常态，疫情红利逐渐退潮，凶猛的增长势头并不会无限期持续下去。</b></p><p>疫情红利退潮 市场由狂热回归理性</p><p>疫情带来了消费、工作和生活模式的巨变，转向远程办公，数字化商业模式变革，从电子商务再到远程医疗......同时一些公司销售、利润也因这些转变大涨，股价不断飙升。</p><p><b>然而，进入后疫情时代，这一转变基本已经完成，华尔街仍对这场变革会持续多久和能走多远过于乐观。</b></p><p><b>回顾当时，几乎在一夜之间，数百万美国人从线下消费转向线上购买，推动亚马逊高速发展</b>。2020年和2021年，亚马逊年销售额保持20%-40%的高增长，这对于一家年收入已经接近3000亿美元的公司来说是前所未有的。而现在，该公司财报显示，今年第一季度销售增长放缓至7%，其股价较去年的峰值下跌了近三分之一。</p><p>电商公司Shopify Inc.高管们早些时候将疫情描述为一台“时间机器”，<b>将十年来消费习惯的演变压缩为几个月</b>。根据美国商务部的数据，2020年电子商务占零售额（不包括汽车）的比例从2月的16%跃升至4月的22%。</p><p>如今，时间机器的工作已经完成了，<b>电子商务零售占比已稳定在19%左右</b>。今年2月，Shopify首席财务官发出警告，由疫情带来的电商业务加速发展将从2022年起开始消退。目前Shopify股价已经从峰值下跌了四分之三。</p><p>奈飞最近的财报也显示，订阅用户数量意外下降。疫情期间，居家影视娱乐需求激增，奈飞股价大涨，而现在其股价较去年的高点下跌71%。Peloton的智能健身机器在健身房关闭后人气飙升，但如今股价下跌逾80%。</p><p>食品配送初创公司DoorDash 、线上二手车零售商Carvana、Zoom Video和远程医疗服务提供商Teladoc Health这些疫情受益股都失去了疫情带来的红利。自去年7月以来，这些公司的总市值下降了46%，约合1.3万亿美元。相比之下，标普500指数同期仅下跌6%，约2.1万亿美元。</p><p><b>报道指出，这些转变与2000年互联网泡沫破裂有相似之处。</b>在这两次事件中，技术确实从根本上改变了人们的生活方式。在美联储宽松货币政策的助力下，市场将股价推高到假定这些趋势将无限期持续下去的水平，但事实并非如此。</p><p>根据美国劳工部的数据，2020年5月，由于疫情，35%的员工开始远程工作。自那以后，这一比例一直呈下降趋势，在3月份降至10%。<b>这显示了后疫情时代的新常态，即人们比疫情前更多地远程购物、工作和生活，但这一活动的增长并非如此高速。</b></p><p>数字化并未提高生产力</p><p>疫情推动了未来的增长，但这种驱动力作用最终会消失。更重要的是，这两年的数字化发展并未提高生产力。</p><p>尽管经历了大规模数字化浪潮的公司通常都是盈利的企业，拥有可行的商业模式，但这些公司仍在转变完成后仍狂热地追随向数字化生活和工作模式，大力招聘和投资。</p><p>例如，虽说流媒体是一个不断增长的行业，但根据投研公司Moffett Nathanson数据，过去两年，订阅量每季度增长约8%，而上一季度仅增长4%，获客变得越来越困难，但对新内容的投资需求却在增加。</p><p>奈飞联合首席执行官Reed Hastings上个月表示，<b>疫情使我们对于形势的解读有了很多噪音</b>。2021年随着疫情效应的减弱，增长放缓，同时竞争也在加剧。</p><p>而亚马逊在整个疫情期间都在疯狂招聘和投资，但在今年第一季度，其发现招聘和投资过度。首席财务官Brian Olsavsky上个月表示，其运输网络产能存在过剩的问题。</p><p><b>以上这些意味着未来几个月该行业的投资和招聘将减少，但并不一定会拖垮经济，消费者可以回到线下购物、工作和就餐。尽管如此，疫情带来的通货紧缩因素加大了经济衰退压力，如利率上升和能源价格上涨。</b></p><p>更大的问题是，数字化本应提高整体经济的生产率和效率，并带来更高的工资、更高的利润和更低的通胀。<b>然而，当潜在的新客户减少，提供服务的劳动力和设施不断增加时，生产效率就会出现下降。</b></p><p>美国4月ISM制造业PMI创2020年9月来新低，显示就业低迷，价格压力未缓解。此前发布的GDP数据显示，美国经济出现萎缩，年化环比下降1.4%，自2020年年中来首次转负。</p><p>在过去的两年里，人们工作方式发生了根本性的变化，但生产效率并未出现质的提升。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股大跌的背后：不只是通胀和美联储，还有更深层次的变化</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股大跌的背后：不只是通胀和美联储，还有更深层次的变化\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-06 10:54 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3658651><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：赵颖美股上演了一场“惊天大逆转”，前一日还暴力拉升、加速上涨，为排除激进加息的可能性而欢呼，次日人们就争先恐后地抛售，美股开始暴跌狂泻。美股标普500指数跌超3.9%、道指狂泄逾千点、科技股为主的纳指跌超5%，创下2020年以来的最大单日跌幅。而股市下跌的背后，除了高通胀和美联储更激进的“收水”之外，还有更深层次的原因。《华尔街日报》在最新的报道中指出，美国经济已经进入了后疫情时代的新常态，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3658651\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8de43451c68f57a0fdb81f66644722a","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3658651","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1145571254","content_text":"作者：赵颖美股上演了一场“惊天大逆转”，前一日还暴力拉升、加速上涨，为排除激进加息的可能性而欢呼，次日人们就争先恐后地抛售，美股开始暴跌狂泻。美股标普500指数跌超3.9%、道指狂泄逾千点、科技股为主的纳指跌超5%，创下2020年以来的最大单日跌幅。而股市下跌的背后，除了高通胀和美联储更激进的“收水”之外，还有更深层次的原因。《华尔街日报》在最新的报道中指出，美国经济已经进入了后疫情时代的新常态，疫情红利逐渐退潮，凶猛的增长势头并不会无限期持续下去。疫情红利退潮 市场由狂热回归理性疫情带来了消费、工作和生活模式的巨变，转向远程办公，数字化商业模式变革，从电子商务再到远程医疗......同时一些公司销售、利润也因这些转变大涨，股价不断飙升。然而，进入后疫情时代，这一转变基本已经完成，华尔街仍对这场变革会持续多久和能走多远过于乐观。回顾当时，几乎在一夜之间，数百万美国人从线下消费转向线上购买，推动亚马逊高速发展。2020年和2021年，亚马逊年销售额保持20%-40%的高增长，这对于一家年收入已经接近3000亿美元的公司来说是前所未有的。而现在，该公司财报显示，今年第一季度销售增长放缓至7%，其股价较去年的峰值下跌了近三分之一。电商公司Shopify Inc.高管们早些时候将疫情描述为一台“时间机器”，将十年来消费习惯的演变压缩为几个月。根据美国商务部的数据，2020年电子商务占零售额（不包括汽车）的比例从2月的16%跃升至4月的22%。如今，时间机器的工作已经完成了，电子商务零售占比已稳定在19%左右。今年2月，Shopify首席财务官发出警告，由疫情带来的电商业务加速发展将从2022年起开始消退。目前Shopify股价已经从峰值下跌了四分之三。奈飞最近的财报也显示，订阅用户数量意外下降。疫情期间，居家影视娱乐需求激增，奈飞股价大涨，而现在其股价较去年的高点下跌71%。Peloton的智能健身机器在健身房关闭后人气飙升，但如今股价下跌逾80%。食品配送初创公司DoorDash 、线上二手车零售商Carvana、Zoom Video和远程医疗服务提供商Teladoc Health这些疫情受益股都失去了疫情带来的红利。自去年7月以来，这些公司的总市值下降了46%，约合1.3万亿美元。相比之下，标普500指数同期仅下跌6%，约2.1万亿美元。报道指出，这些转变与2000年互联网泡沫破裂有相似之处。在这两次事件中，技术确实从根本上改变了人们的生活方式。在美联储宽松货币政策的助力下，市场将股价推高到假定这些趋势将无限期持续下去的水平，但事实并非如此。根据美国劳工部的数据，2020年5月，由于疫情，35%的员工开始远程工作。自那以后，这一比例一直呈下降趋势，在3月份降至10%。这显示了后疫情时代的新常态，即人们比疫情前更多地远程购物、工作和生活，但这一活动的增长并非如此高速。数字化并未提高生产力疫情推动了未来的增长，但这种驱动力作用最终会消失。更重要的是，这两年的数字化发展并未提高生产力。尽管经历了大规模数字化浪潮的公司通常都是盈利的企业，拥有可行的商业模式，但这些公司仍在转变完成后仍狂热地追随向数字化生活和工作模式，大力招聘和投资。例如，虽说流媒体是一个不断增长的行业，但根据投研公司Moffett Nathanson数据，过去两年，订阅量每季度增长约8%，而上一季度仅增长4%，获客变得越来越困难，但对新内容的投资需求却在增加。奈飞联合首席执行官Reed Hastings上个月表示，疫情使我们对于形势的解读有了很多噪音。2021年随着疫情效应的减弱，增长放缓，同时竞争也在加剧。而亚马逊在整个疫情期间都在疯狂招聘和投资，但在今年第一季度，其发现招聘和投资过度。首席财务官Brian Olsavsky上个月表示，其运输网络产能存在过剩的问题。以上这些意味着未来几个月该行业的投资和招聘将减少，但并不一定会拖垮经济，消费者可以回到线下购物、工作和就餐。尽管如此，疫情带来的通货紧缩因素加大了经济衰退压力，如利率上升和能源价格上涨。更大的问题是，数字化本应提高整体经济的生产率和效率，并带来更高的工资、更高的利润和更低的通胀。然而，当潜在的新客户减少，提供服务的劳动力和设施不断增加时，生产效率就会出现下降。美国4月ISM制造业PMI创2020年9月来新低，显示就业低迷，价格压力未缓解。此前发布的GDP数据显示，美国经济出现萎缩，年化环比下降1.4%，自2020年年中来首次转负。在过去的两年里，人们工作方式发生了根本性的变化，但生产效率并未出现质的提升。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":815,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
