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猫头怪咪
06-24
$恒生指数(HSI)$
致敬传奇护盘师 3:20暴力拉升100点
猫头怪咪
05-29
夜盘你都不看吗
猫头怪咪
05-21
高盛和汇丰如果没说这些 李笑寅的咖喱人必须4一个
中国股市大反弹可持续吗？高盛、汇丰说了同一句话：别离场！
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3:20暴力拉升100点","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320253883121832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":343,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":310957392752672,"gmtCreate":1716944659841,"gmtModify":1716947726723,"author":{"id":"4109797148458690","authorId":"4109797148458690","name":"猫头怪咪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9a76f7ba736a37798225a3cf7cdcbfa","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"夜盘你都不看吗","listText":"夜盘你都不看吗","text":"夜盘你都不看吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/310957392752672","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":308316347793424,"gmtCreate":1716294527862,"gmtModify":1716299524092,"author":{"id":"4109797148458690","authorId":"4109797148458690","name":"猫头怪咪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9a76f7ba736a37798225a3cf7cdcbfa","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"高盛和汇丰如果没说这些 李笑寅的咖喱人必须4一个","listText":"高盛和汇丰如果没说这些 李笑寅的咖喱人必须4一个","text":"高盛和汇丰如果没说这些 李笑寅的咖喱人必须4一个","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308316347793424","repostId":"1156581561","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156581561","pubTimestamp":1716266240,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156581561?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-05-21 12:37","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"中国股市大反弹可持续吗？高盛、汇丰说了同一句话：别离场！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156581561","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"接下来6个月的最大回报率平均能达到35%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者：李笑寅</p><p>大反弹后，谈离场仍为时尚早。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近月以来，中国股市涨势凌厉，A股沪指从2月初的低点以来反弹逾17%，港股恒指更是稳步进入技术性牛市（即涨幅超过20%），实现全面“大反攻”。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b6b59161a9cca1340ec3650a9e9b3f9\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对投资者来说，下一个问题是：是趁高卖出还是继续持有？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛、汇丰分别在5月20日发布最新研报，称从历史数据的角度出发，本轮反弹行情尚处中期阶段，股市仍有上行空间。</p><h2 id=\"id_3740214401\" style=\"text-align: start;\">历史证明，反弹尚未结束</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从历史数据来看，中国市场的反弹可能还没到结束的时候。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛表示，过去20年来的数据显示，<strong>进入技术性牛市后，市场有60%的可能会继续上涨，接下来6个月的最大回报率平均能达到35%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">汇丰指出，2000年以来，恒生国企指数出现过12次平均5个月内反弹超过30%的情形，而每次反弹后，该指数的涨势又持续了四个月，平均回报率为27%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这意味着，<strong>恒生国企指数2000年以来的每次大反弹都会持续九个月，平均回报率为40-50%</strong>。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2beb66401981b1ec23e1ca2591c784f1\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"503\" tg-height=\"271\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">那么接下来，继续支撑股市反弹的动力何在？汇丰认为有以下因素：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1）中国股市的整体估值仍低于5年前的平均水平，便宜的估值会带来相应的支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2）企业股票回购规模可能会有所增加，“降息降准”年内仍有空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">3）港股市场有高达四分之一的买盘来自南向资金，外资的买入空间还很大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">4）支持性政策持续发力。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛在报告中总结道，在政策支持、估值吸引力及盈利潜力的三重利好下，对中国市场的展望依然积极。</p><h2 id=\"id_3520762643\" style=\"text-align: start;\">下一个关键驱动因素：盈利</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛指出，随着反弹行情持续，<strong>驱动涨势的关键因素将会从估值扩张转向盈利修正</strong>，这预示着盈利业绩将对牛市持续性产生重要影响。</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们对共23个案例的研究表明，估值扩张是最初20%涨幅背后的主要推动力，但到达20%临界点后，涨势的延续部分取决于共识盈利修正，在7个案例中，共识盈利修正平均提高了10%，在随后的6个月中，指数又反弹了 35%，达到峰值。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">汇丰指出，就短期来看，目前任何有关盈利的利好消息都会给股市带来一定支撑。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1e9ccf4a380b8c799ee464ce262f2c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"280\" tg-height=\"274\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">长期看，确实存在共识盈利预期下调的风险，但可能要到2024年四季度才会显露，在此之前股市仍有很大支撑。</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2023年，受到房地产和商品部门的拖累，中国企业的EPS增长率为7%，但如果剔除这两个部门的影响，其他行业的整体EPS增长了15%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">虽然一季度盈利总体情况不及预期，导致对全年盈利的预期有所下调，但全年的盈利预期主要取决于四季度的盈利情况。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a797b63fa70197a7f97a77ee2a1d10f1\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"529\" tg-height=\"297\"/></p></blockquote></body></html>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中国股市大反弹可持续吗？高盛、汇丰说了同一句话：别离场！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中国股市大反弹可持续吗？高盛、汇丰说了同一句话：别离场！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-05-21 12:37 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3715353><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：李笑寅大反弹后，谈离场仍为时尚早。近月以来，中国股市涨势凌厉，A股沪指从2月初的低点以来反弹逾17%，港股恒指更是稳步进入技术性牛市（即涨幅超过20%），实现全面“大反攻”。对投资者来说，下一个问题是：是趁高卖出还是继续持有？高盛、汇丰分别在5月20日发布最新研报，称从历史数据的角度出发，本轮反弹行情尚处中期阶段，股市仍有上行空间。历史证明，反弹尚未结束从历史数据来看，中国市场的反弹可能还...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3715353\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2ed00ac5de2097917e40947bc4a36a","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3715353","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1156581561","content_text":"作者：李笑寅大反弹后，谈离场仍为时尚早。近月以来，中国股市涨势凌厉，A股沪指从2月初的低点以来反弹逾17%，港股恒指更是稳步进入技术性牛市（即涨幅超过20%），实现全面“大反攻”。对投资者来说，下一个问题是：是趁高卖出还是继续持有？高盛、汇丰分别在5月20日发布最新研报，称从历史数据的角度出发，本轮反弹行情尚处中期阶段，股市仍有上行空间。历史证明，反弹尚未结束从历史数据来看，中国市场的反弹可能还没到结束的时候。高盛表示，过去20年来的数据显示，进入技术性牛市后，市场有60%的可能会继续上涨，接下来6个月的最大回报率平均能达到35%。汇丰指出，2000年以来，恒生国企指数出现过12次平均5个月内反弹超过30%的情形，而每次反弹后，该指数的涨势又持续了四个月，平均回报率为27%。这意味着，恒生国企指数2000年以来的每次大反弹都会持续九个月，平均回报率为40-50%。那么接下来，继续支撑股市反弹的动力何在？汇丰认为有以下因素：1）中国股市的整体估值仍低于5年前的平均水平，便宜的估值会带来相应的支撑。2）企业股票回购规模可能会有所增加，“降息降准”年内仍有空间。3）港股市场有高达四分之一的买盘来自南向资金，外资的买入空间还很大。4）支持性政策持续发力。高盛在报告中总结道，在政策支持、估值吸引力及盈利潜力的三重利好下，对中国市场的展望依然积极。下一个关键驱动因素：盈利高盛指出，随着反弹行情持续，驱动涨势的关键因素将会从估值扩张转向盈利修正，这预示着盈利业绩将对牛市持续性产生重要影响。我们对共23个案例的研究表明，估值扩张是最初20%涨幅背后的主要推动力，但到达20%临界点后，涨势的延续部分取决于共识盈利修正，在7个案例中，共识盈利修正平均提高了10%，在随后的6个月中，指数又反弹了 35%，达到峰值。汇丰指出，就短期来看，目前任何有关盈利的利好消息都会给股市带来一定支撑。长期看，确实存在共识盈利预期下调的风险，但可能要到2024年四季度才会显露，在此之前股市仍有很大支撑。2023年，受到房地产和商品部门的拖累，中国企业的EPS增长率为7%，但如果剔除这两个部门的影响，其他行业的整体EPS增长了15%。虽然一季度盈利总体情况不及预期，导致对全年盈利的预期有所下调，但全年的盈利预期主要取决于四季度的盈利情况。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":320253883121832,"gmtCreate":1719216881219,"gmtModify":1719217606452,"author":{"id":"4109797148458690","authorId":"4109797148458690","name":"猫头怪咪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9a76f7ba736a37798225a3cf7cdcbfa","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$ </a> 致敬传奇护盘师 3:20暴力拉升100点","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$ </a> 致敬传奇护盘师 3:20暴力拉升100点","text":"$恒生指数(HSI)$ 致敬传奇护盘师 3:20暴力拉升100点","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320253883121832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":343,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":310957392752672,"gmtCreate":1716944659841,"gmtModify":1716947726723,"author":{"id":"4109797148458690","authorId":"4109797148458690","name":"猫头怪咪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9a76f7ba736a37798225a3cf7cdcbfa","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"夜盘你都不看吗","listText":"夜盘你都不看吗","text":"夜盘你都不看吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/310957392752672","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":308316347793424,"gmtCreate":1716294527862,"gmtModify":1716299524092,"author":{"id":"4109797148458690","authorId":"4109797148458690","name":"猫头怪咪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9a76f7ba736a37798225a3cf7cdcbfa","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"高盛和汇丰如果没说这些 李笑寅的咖喱人必须4一个","listText":"高盛和汇丰如果没说这些 李笑寅的咖喱人必须4一个","text":"高盛和汇丰如果没说这些 李笑寅的咖喱人必须4一个","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308316347793424","repostId":"1156581561","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156581561","pubTimestamp":1716266240,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156581561?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-05-21 12:37","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"中国股市大反弹可持续吗？高盛、汇丰说了同一句话：别离场！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156581561","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"接下来6个月的最大回报率平均能达到35%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者：李笑寅</p><p>大反弹后，谈离场仍为时尚早。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近月以来，中国股市涨势凌厉，A股沪指从2月初的低点以来反弹逾17%，港股恒指更是稳步进入技术性牛市（即涨幅超过20%），实现全面“大反攻”。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b6b59161a9cca1340ec3650a9e9b3f9\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对投资者来说，下一个问题是：是趁高卖出还是继续持有？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛、汇丰分别在5月20日发布最新研报，称从历史数据的角度出发，本轮反弹行情尚处中期阶段，股市仍有上行空间。</p><h2 id=\"id_3740214401\" style=\"text-align: start;\">历史证明，反弹尚未结束</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从历史数据来看，中国市场的反弹可能还没到结束的时候。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛表示，过去20年来的数据显示，<strong>进入技术性牛市后，市场有60%的可能会继续上涨，接下来6个月的最大回报率平均能达到35%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">汇丰指出，2000年以来，恒生国企指数出现过12次平均5个月内反弹超过30%的情形，而每次反弹后，该指数的涨势又持续了四个月，平均回报率为27%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这意味着，<strong>恒生国企指数2000年以来的每次大反弹都会持续九个月，平均回报率为40-50%</strong>。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2beb66401981b1ec23e1ca2591c784f1\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"503\" tg-height=\"271\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">那么接下来，继续支撑股市反弹的动力何在？汇丰认为有以下因素：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1）中国股市的整体估值仍低于5年前的平均水平，便宜的估值会带来相应的支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2）企业股票回购规模可能会有所增加，“降息降准”年内仍有空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">3）港股市场有高达四分之一的买盘来自南向资金，外资的买入空间还很大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">4）支持性政策持续发力。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛在报告中总结道，在政策支持、估值吸引力及盈利潜力的三重利好下，对中国市场的展望依然积极。</p><h2 id=\"id_3520762643\" style=\"text-align: start;\">下一个关键驱动因素：盈利</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛指出，随着反弹行情持续，<strong>驱动涨势的关键因素将会从估值扩张转向盈利修正</strong>，这预示着盈利业绩将对牛市持续性产生重要影响。</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们对共23个案例的研究表明，估值扩张是最初20%涨幅背后的主要推动力，但到达20%临界点后，涨势的延续部分取决于共识盈利修正，在7个案例中，共识盈利修正平均提高了10%，在随后的6个月中，指数又反弹了 35%，达到峰值。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">汇丰指出，就短期来看，目前任何有关盈利的利好消息都会给股市带来一定支撑。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1e9ccf4a380b8c799ee464ce262f2c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"280\" tg-height=\"274\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">长期看，确实存在共识盈利预期下调的风险，但可能要到2024年四季度才会显露，在此之前股市仍有很大支撑。</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2023年，受到房地产和商品部门的拖累，中国企业的EPS增长率为7%，但如果剔除这两个部门的影响，其他行业的整体EPS增长了15%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">虽然一季度盈利总体情况不及预期，导致对全年盈利的预期有所下调，但全年的盈利预期主要取决于四季度的盈利情况。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a797b63fa70197a7f97a77ee2a1d10f1\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"529\" tg-height=\"297\"/></p></blockquote></body></html>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中国股市大反弹可持续吗？高盛、汇丰说了同一句话：别离场！</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中国股市大反弹可持续吗？高盛、汇丰说了同一句话：别离场！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-05-21 12:37 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3715353><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：李笑寅大反弹后，谈离场仍为时尚早。近月以来，中国股市涨势凌厉，A股沪指从2月初的低点以来反弹逾17%，港股恒指更是稳步进入技术性牛市（即涨幅超过20%），实现全面“大反攻”。对投资者来说，下一个问题是：是趁高卖出还是继续持有？高盛、汇丰分别在5月20日发布最新研报，称从历史数据的角度出发，本轮反弹行情尚处中期阶段，股市仍有上行空间。历史证明，反弹尚未结束从历史数据来看，中国市场的反弹可能还...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3715353\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2ed00ac5de2097917e40947bc4a36a","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3715353","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1156581561","content_text":"作者：李笑寅大反弹后，谈离场仍为时尚早。近月以来，中国股市涨势凌厉，A股沪指从2月初的低点以来反弹逾17%，港股恒指更是稳步进入技术性牛市（即涨幅超过20%），实现全面“大反攻”。对投资者来说，下一个问题是：是趁高卖出还是继续持有？高盛、汇丰分别在5月20日发布最新研报，称从历史数据的角度出发，本轮反弹行情尚处中期阶段，股市仍有上行空间。历史证明，反弹尚未结束从历史数据来看，中国市场的反弹可能还没到结束的时候。高盛表示，过去20年来的数据显示，进入技术性牛市后，市场有60%的可能会继续上涨，接下来6个月的最大回报率平均能达到35%。汇丰指出，2000年以来，恒生国企指数出现过12次平均5个月内反弹超过30%的情形，而每次反弹后，该指数的涨势又持续了四个月，平均回报率为27%。这意味着，恒生国企指数2000年以来的每次大反弹都会持续九个月，平均回报率为40-50%。那么接下来，继续支撑股市反弹的动力何在？汇丰认为有以下因素：1）中国股市的整体估值仍低于5年前的平均水平，便宜的估值会带来相应的支撑。2）企业股票回购规模可能会有所增加，“降息降准”年内仍有空间。3）港股市场有高达四分之一的买盘来自南向资金，外资的买入空间还很大。4）支持性政策持续发力。高盛在报告中总结道，在政策支持、估值吸引力及盈利潜力的三重利好下，对中国市场的展望依然积极。下一个关键驱动因素：盈利高盛指出，随着反弹行情持续，驱动涨势的关键因素将会从估值扩张转向盈利修正，这预示着盈利业绩将对牛市持续性产生重要影响。我们对共23个案例的研究表明，估值扩张是最初20%涨幅背后的主要推动力，但到达20%临界点后，涨势的延续部分取决于共识盈利修正，在7个案例中，共识盈利修正平均提高了10%，在随后的6个月中，指数又反弹了 35%，达到峰值。汇丰指出，就短期来看，目前任何有关盈利的利好消息都会给股市带来一定支撑。长期看，确实存在共识盈利预期下调的风险，但可能要到2024年四季度才会显露，在此之前股市仍有很大支撑。2023年，受到房地产和商品部门的拖累，中国企业的EPS增长率为7%，但如果剔除这两个部门的影响，其他行业的整体EPS增长了15%。虽然一季度盈利总体情况不及预期，导致对全年盈利的预期有所下调，但全年的盈利预期主要取决于四季度的盈利情况。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
