盏里的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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11-07

11.7

11-07

老虎社区 - 优质内容创作

查看详情：老虎社区 - 优质内容创作查看本周热门主题，发帖即有机会赢取奖励此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户

老虎社区 - 优质内容创作

11-05

11.5

10-18

10.18

09-12

9.12

2022-06-23

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

一场发生在中美顶级投资人之间的对话！

2022-06-17

$新东方在线(01797)$资本市场不过如此

2022-01-06

$商汤-W(00020)$下注了下注了[举爪] 猜猜今天是跌是涨[看涨] [看跌]

2022-01-04

$商汤-W(00020)$都跑啊doge[梭哈]

2021-12-24

$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$美股都涨你还不涨？

2021-12-09

$蔚来(NIO)$38入局，丝毫不慌，因我相信，蔚来可期

2021-11-25

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$还能拉上去了吗今天

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22:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"一场发生在中美顶级投资人之间的对话！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164783484","media":"每日经济新闻","summary":"一场发生在中美顶级投资人之间的对话：桥水达利欧与红杉沈南鹏眼中的现在和未来是什么样？《每日经济新闻》获悉，6月23日晚间，桥水创始人瑞·达利欧和红杉全球执行合伙人沈南鹏进行了一场线上对话。这两位具有世","content":"<div>\n<p>一场发生在中美顶级投资人之间的对话：桥水达利欧与红杉沈南鹏眼中的现在和未来是什么样？《每日经济新闻》获悉，6月23日晚间，桥水创始人瑞·达利欧和红杉全球执行合伙人沈南鹏进行了一场线上对话。这两位具有世界级影响力的投资人，同样也是成功穿越了数次经济周期的参与者。在这场时长1个小时的对话中，也有很多非常有意思、对行业来说也颇具参考意义的观点出现。例如，谈到当前世界宏观形势的成因，瑞·达利欧在历史经验中...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2022-06-23/2337569.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"mrjjxw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>一场发生在中美顶级投资人之间的对话！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n一场发生在中美顶级投资人之间的对话！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-23 22:37 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2022-06-23/2337569.html><strong>每日经济新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一场发生在中美顶级投资人之间的对话：桥水达利欧与红杉沈南鹏眼中的现在和未来是什么样？《每日经济新闻》获悉，6月23日晚间，桥水创始人瑞·达利欧和红杉全球执行合伙人沈南鹏进行了一场线上对话。这两位具有世界级影响力的投资人，同样也是成功穿越了数次经济周期的参与者。在这场时长1个小时的对话中，也有很多非常有意思、对行业来说也颇具参考意义的观点出现。例如，谈到当前世界宏观形势的成因，瑞·达利欧在历史经验中...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2022-06-23/2337569.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b6da5e39bcfbdfe1e1d70e5ec93da08","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2022-06-23/2337569.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164783484","content_text":"一场发生在中美顶级投资人之间的对话：桥水达利欧与红杉沈南鹏眼中的现在和未来是什么样？《每日经济新闻》获悉，6月23日晚间，桥水创始人瑞·达利欧和红杉全球执行合伙人沈南鹏进行了一场线上对话。这两位具有世界级影响力的投资人，同样也是成功穿越了数次经济周期的参与者。在这场时长1个小时的对话中，也有很多非常有意思、对行业来说也颇具参考意义的观点出现。例如，谈到当前世界宏观形势的成因，瑞·达利欧在历史经验中总结了三点：债务货币化、贫富悬殊、大国竞争。关于当下环境的投资方法论，他则建议画好四个象限，投资者要建立“全天候策略”。另一方面，针对宏观环境对创投行业的影响，沈南鹏表示，技术发展有其自身周期，与宏观经济的周期并不同步。“技术市场虽然起起落落，但我们应该相信科技创新的潜力。”谈到在中国投资的核心理念时，他表示投资的核心不是资产而是人，要永远对市场怀有敬畏之心。以下为对话内容的部分节选：沈南鹏：美联储的资产负债表已经扩张，2008年是1万亿美元，2020年是4万亿美元，2021年是9万亿美元，短短一年内就创造了5万亿美元。欧美地区几乎所有的央行，都在急剧地提高利率。同时还发生了新冠肺炎疫情等。所有这些情况都同时以史无前例的规模发生。瑞，你认为金融市场上会出现什么样的风险？达利欧：我喜欢以机制化的方式来解释这个问题。已经发生的情况是货币不够，印钞增加，这导致货币的价值相对于商品和服务下降，通胀率上升。通胀率上升导致民众购买力下降，民众拥有的实际财富减少。在我们思考什么是安全的投资时，人们认为持有现金是安全的投资，也许是持有安全的政府债券。（这一切都）不再如此了。为了避免通胀带来的经济损失，政府会拿走一些他们曾经给予的购买力，如美联储出售1.1万亿美元的债券，同时让利率上升，这就导致民众购买力下降，出现一种滞胀的环境，而停滞和通胀都会导致民众购买力受损。这就是我们当前在周期中所处的位置，这是很典型的情况。提高生活水平的唯一途径是扩大生产，通过印钱和提供信贷是不能提高生活水平的，因为信贷总是要偿还的。一个人的债务就是另一个人的资产，所以必须设定好二者的平衡，否则就会出问题。我们曾经处于这样的形势中，目前依然处于其中，那些持有债务工具的贷款人将会遭受很严重的损失。因此，人们无法把利率提高到足以遏制通胀的程度，也无法使那些受通胀影响的资产持有者获得偿还，硬要把利率提到那么高的话就必然对经济活动产生负面影响。因此，滞胀机制将会造成其必然的影响。沈南鹏：基于我们刚刚讨论的经济趋势和条件，你对未来的投资策略有何建议？达利欧：这取决于人们投资于什么方面、可以投资于什么方面。但一般而言，在全球来说，现金投资，换言之，短期或更长期的政府债券和一般债券，将带来负的实际收益，即经通胀调整后的收益。因此这些资产不适合持有。因此，很重要的是拥有多元化的投资组合，即平衡的投资组合。我们有一种策略，称为“全天候策略”，其基础是平衡不同的资产类别，因为财富会在一些地方缩水，在另一些地方增长。例如，在通胀环境中，你持有大宗商品、黄金等抗通胀资产，这将抵消其他资产的负收益。因此，一开始就持有平衡的投资组合是很重要的。一旦你实现有效的多元化，你就能以很低的风险维持良好的收益。所以，第一，不要只持有现金等资产；第二，进行合理的多元化，以创造出平衡的局面；第三，如果你像我一样是全球投资者，要在不同的地方、国家和产业之间进行多元化投资。沈南鹏：具体就不同资产类别而言，有什么主要类别，全球投资者应当持有？达利欧：我思考这一点的方式是，这就像是四个象限，有两个主要变量。这两个主要变量是通货膨胀和增长率，会上升，也会下降。给每一个象限分配25%的风险，然后联想在每个象限，你希望拥有什么资产。例如，假如增长率比预计的快，即第一象限，你应该要拥有股权和信用差价，因为当这种条件存在时，信用差价下跌，股权上涨，这将是你想要看到的情况。如果在另一个象限，增长率下降，这时你应该拥有抗通胀的资产，通常是债券，高质量的债券。如果你在右上方的象限，再如果通货膨胀高于预期，这时你应该拥有经通胀调整后的资产，比如大宗商品、黄金、通胀挂钩债券等。在通胀较低的象限，你要进行同样的权衡。这样的象限是一种对如何实现平衡的指引。投资人应该对这些因素进行风险平衡。这只是开始，一旦你拥有平衡，你要经营这种平衡。这意味着不管发生什么，你的风险是受控的，这是由平衡的性质决定的。然后你根据环境变化采取战术行动。这种情况在全世界都适用。达利欧：红杉在中国有很多成功的投资，你们能近距离观察。你能否告诉我现在的情况如何，环境如何，机会如何？沈南鹏：我们很幸运地能与许多很了不起的创业者合作，他们为投资者创造了巨大价值。在此过程中，我们也在投资中犯过许多错误，并且努力从这些错误中汲取教训。这其中有技术风险导致的失败，有执行不力导致的失败，也有公开市场的剧烈波动引发的挑战。面对市场，我们需要有敬畏之心。对许多人来说，我们做的是管理“资产”的金融服务业，但我们其实做的是“人”的业务，对内和对外都是如此。对内，我们向团队成员提供很好的职业发展机会，这基于他们的优势、兴趣，作为团队整体我们不断学习和成长。对外，有别于二级市场投资者，我们有不同的自我定位。我们的定位其实可以归结为一个词——服务，我们服务创业者。我们与他们的合作方式将很大程度决定我们的业绩，这也将形成我们的品牌和声誉。风险投资和成长期投资是我们的主要产品和业务，而且我们高度聚焦科技领域，其路径与对冲基金或传统并购不同。在我听你描述宏观环境挑战时，我觉得很幸运，因为宏观环境的变化对我们的一部分风险投资业务影响相对较小。富有挑战性的宏观环境肯定会对许多企业造成影响，但技术发展有其自身的周期，例如在过去的十年里，随着安全性能的提升，成本的下降，锂电池在电动车和储能行业得到大规模应用，不仅在中国，也在全球。这样的技术突破的时机与经济的起落关系不大，需要完全不同的技能来预测正在出现的技术趋势，这正是我们的工作的重要组成部分。达利欧：你是否发现，当存在大量流动性时，购买资产是代价高昂的？你是否认为流动性的减少正在产生一定的影响，就像对世界各地的其他科技公司的影响一样？沈南鹏：事实上，在过去五年里，大多数时候我们都能看到大量的流动性，不仅仅在中国市场，也在世界各地，尤其在科技领域。因为这一点，投资者发现企业估值变得越来越昂贵，同时企业也得到了更多的资金，甚至多于其本来需要的资金，这也让竞争变得更激烈了。最近的6~9个月里，全球科技行业趋向平和。我们首次看到，投资者在实际投资私人企业时能得到更合理的估值。坦率地说，科技公司自身之间的竞争因此变得更理性了。我希望这能带来更健康的环境，不仅有利于科技创新，而且有利于投资者。沈南鹏：你曾多次来中国。20年前，你对中国的印象是什么？上次你来中国似乎是在3年前？达利欧：1984年，我受到中国国际信托投资公司的邀请来到中国讲金融市场。那时的中国与现在完全不同。现在，无论在人工智能还是云计算方面，中国都有长足的发展。自我首次来中国以来，中国的人均收入提高了26倍，人均寿命提高了10年，贫困率从88%降到了1%以下。我和你们一样看到全国范围内的蓬勃发展。中国现在在各方面都是一个可观的大国，我不仅目睹了这一点，还在一段时间里亲身经历中国的进化。我认为这是有史以来发生过的最大规模的经济进化。沈南鹏：回到中国业务的问题上，我知道你正在打造一个在中国国内运行的团队，而且在中国推出了产品。这些战略与你的全球战略有何不同？达利欧：是的，我们在中国有两个办公室，一个在上海，一个在北京。在过去三年左右的时间里，我们为中国的投资者进行在岸投资。我的战略是这样。首先，各国都存在一些永恒普适的规律，就像前面四个象限的例子。事物会按这样的规律发展，因为在所有国家，投资是为了获得未来现金流的一次性支付。用贴现率和未来的现金流可以计算出你想要的数值，这是一个永恒普适的真理。所以我们有这些永恒普适的规律，适用于所有国家，这是我们的出发点。然后我们深入当地的事态。例如中国的一些政策变化会起到一些重要的作用，这个情况也可能在其他国家发生。所以如何把这一点纳入考虑？金钱如何流动？谁在购买什么？为什么购买？这些问题都是很细节化的地方性问题。我们应对这些问题的方式是分析，分析标准依然是：管理者怎么样，资产负债表和损益表怎么样，等等。事实是，对其中的大多数而言，永恒普适的规律是有帮助的。在你和红杉合作之前，红杉有一种投资理念，关于怎么把投资做好，你和红杉合作之后，又把这种理念融入当地环境。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":689182982,"gmtCreate":1655429719148,"gmtModify":1704862315539,"author":{"id":"4100607978115520","authorId":"4100607978115520","name":"盏里","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e929836e4898255bf8e4342ba9db1ba6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100607978115520","authorIdStr":"4100607978115520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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