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leema123
2021-12-19
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大摩：美联储加息对大类资产意味着什么？
leema123
2022-01-27
good
@SCLOW:Alibaba, JD.com pace stock losses in Hong Kong
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The Hang Seng Tech Index lost 2.8 per cent at the close of Monday trading, the steepest in two weeks as Alibaba Group Holding and JD.com led the pullback for a second day. The Hang Seng Index retreated 1.2 per cent, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index erassed losses to end little changed. Major Asian markets were mixed. Shares in South Korea retreated by 1.5 per cent, while Australian stocks lost 0.5 per cent. The Japanese benchmark rose 0.2 per cent. “The start of Fed hiking cycles tends to pose a modest headwind to Asian equities,” strategists at Goldman Sachs wrote in a report","listText":"Chinese technology stocks tumbled in Hong Kong, tracking a slump in US peers and digital assets as traders turned cautious on policy tightening risks and the city recorded the most Covid-19 cases in 18 months. The Hang Seng Tech Index lost 2.8 per cent at the close of Monday trading, the steepest in two weeks as Alibaba Group Holding and JD.com led the pullback for a second day. The Hang Seng Index retreated 1.2 per cent, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index erassed losses to end little changed. Major Asian markets were mixed. Shares in South Korea retreated by 1.5 per cent, while Australian stocks lost 0.5 per cent. The Japanese benchmark rose 0.2 per cent. “The start of Fed hiking cycles tends to pose a modest headwind to Asian equities,” strategists at Goldman Sachs wrote in a report","text":"Chinese technology stocks tumbled in Hong Kong, tracking a slump in US peers and digital assets as traders turned cautious on policy tightening risks and the city recorded the most Covid-19 cases in 18 months. The Hang Seng Tech Index lost 2.8 per cent at the close of Monday trading, the steepest in two weeks as Alibaba Group Holding and JD.com led the pullback for a second day. The Hang Seng Index retreated 1.2 per cent, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index erassed losses to end little changed. Major Asian markets were mixed. Shares in South Korea retreated by 1.5 per cent, while Australian stocks lost 0.5 per cent. The Japanese benchmark rose 0.2 per cent. “The start of Fed hiking cycles tends to pose a modest headwind to Asian equities,” strategists at Goldman Sachs wrote in a report","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639380035","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699719811,"gmtCreate":1639892675749,"gmtModify":1639892675905,"author":{"id":"4096995948990380","authorId":"4096995948990380","name":"leema123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07373ef431ea86ac4c4d92fe8616e713","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[无语] ","listText":"[无语] ","text":"[无语]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699719811","repostId":"1176448765","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":699719811,"gmtCreate":1639892675749,"gmtModify":1639892675905,"author":{"id":"4096995948990380","authorId":"4096995948990380","name":"leema123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07373ef431ea86ac4c4d92fe8616e713","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[无语] ","listText":"[无语] ","text":"[无语]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699719811","repostId":"1176448765","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176448765","pubTimestamp":1639882229,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176448765?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-19 10:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"大摩：美联储加息对大类资产意味着什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176448765","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"看跌黄金、看涨能源、相对于新兴市场更偏向于欧盟和日本。","content":"<p>作者：赵颖</p>\n<p>近期，摩根士丹利在报告中指出，美联储转向鹰派，正以更快的速度缩紧货币政策。大摩将首次加息预期提前到2022年9月，并预计2023年底前累计加息125个基点。</p>\n<p>摩根士丹利认为，这并不会改变大局，而是步伐上的一个调整。大摩基于美国经济强劲增长、通胀高企和美联储一开始的态度极其鹰派的假设，<b>在报告中表达了收紧货币政策时间缩短、美元指数（DXY）保持多头趋势、看跌黄金、看涨能源、相对于新兴市场更偏向于欧盟和日本，美国市场仍然是核心等观点，并认为全球经济增长会更好和政策会更加紧缩。</b></p>\n<p><b>在美联储第一次加息前后会发生什么呢？</b>大摩认为，美国国债和公司债券在第一次加息前后都会较弱。而美国股市，科技板块和非必需消费板块在加息前表现强劲，但在加息后表现不佳。DXY在第一次加息时保持强劲，但在加息后的几个月内有所减弱。铜和布伦特原油走势更强，黄金较弱，尤其是在加息前。</p>\n<p>同样的故事，不同的道路</p>\n<p><b>1. 美联储加快步伐影响有限</b></p>\n<p>美联储政策声明和鲍威尔言论表明，对通胀的容忍度降低，这一转变意味着加息将提前开始。</p>\n<p>摩根士丹利认为一方面，这些变化是巨大的，但另一方面，其对大摩的市场战略的影响相对有限。原因有两方面：</p>\n<p>首先，考虑到高通胀水平，市场一直看不到美联储在短期内采取鸽派行动的动机。只有通胀数据在3月至5月开始缓和后，美联储才会开始指导以后的加息。这也正是大摩看涨DXY，而对新型市场资产持冷淡态度的原因。</p>\n<p>第二，如果美联储在2022年不加息，市场会认为2023或2024年有必要进一步加息。</p>\n<p><b>2. 货币紧缩时期各类资产表现</b></p>\n<p>大摩预计在一个经济良好增长而政策较为紧缩的世界中：</p>\n<ul>\n <li>核心利率和实际债券收益率更高；</li>\n <li>公司债和政府债券等资产表现较好；</li>\n <li>欧洲和日本股市相对于其他地区的回报率更高，因为全球经济增长强劲，受美联储紧缩政策影响较小；</li>\n <li>美国大盘防御性优质股票表现较好；美元走强；</li>\n <li>石油走强，黄金走弱，经济增长，石油需求增加，而加息时黄金承压。</li>\n</ul>\n<p>以史为鉴，资产有什么表现？</p>\n<p>随着美联储反应和利率路径的重大变化，大摩称应为更高的利率定位投资组合。</p>\n<p>大摩对最终利率的预期不变，<b>将2022年第四季度10年期美债收益率预测保持在2.10%。</b></p>\n<p>大摩分析师预计，到2022年第四季度，<b>两年期美债收益率将达到1.25%，</b>比之前的预期高出25个基点。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41e5f4f6b6913cf1e370a4750416e788\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>大摩回顾过去加息周期中的跨资产表现和估值，指出了以下五点：</p>\n<p>1. 美联储加息一个月后，股票回报基本为负，<b>能源、电信和公用事业表现优于大盘。</b>此后回报率趋于恢复，尤其是在新兴市场。</p>\n<p>2.<b>DXY在加息中反弹</b>，可能是由于市场预期更高利率。美元在加息后横盘移动，并在六个月后走弱。</p>\n<p>3. 加息推高债券收益率，<b>而美国国债和德国国债的总回报率则下降。</b></p>\n<p>4. 信贷超额收益的情况更为复杂，一旦市场消化了第一次加息，收益率就会走强。</p>\n<p>5.<b>大宗商品在第一次加息前往往表现不佳，在第一次加息后往往表现出色。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56cc77d0d4de73ad3c764d1a1853d14f\" tg-width=\"1052\" tg-height=\"1142\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>从初始估值来看，大摩发现现今比以往加息周期开始的估值要高得多，而美国除外。这是大摩偏好欧洲和日本股票而非美国股票的一个关键因素。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ce27e5932b36a23137ffd6111fde589\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"806\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大摩：美联储加息对大类资产意味着什么？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大摩：美联储加息对大类资产意味着什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-19 10:50 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3647626><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：赵颖\n近期，摩根士丹利在报告中指出，美联储转向鹰派，正以更快的速度缩紧货币政策。大摩将首次加息预期提前到2022年9月，并预计2023年底前累计加息125个基点。\n摩根士丹利认为，这并不会改变大局，而是步伐上的一个调整。大摩基于美国经济强劲增长、通胀高企和美联储一开始的态度极其鹰派的假设，在报告中表达了收紧货币政策时间缩短、美元指数（DXY）保持多头趋势、看跌黄金、看涨能源、相对于新兴市场更...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3647626\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9633a143b9cb18ac0eee96f40860b568","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3647626","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1176448765","content_text":"作者：赵颖\n近期，摩根士丹利在报告中指出，美联储转向鹰派，正以更快的速度缩紧货币政策。大摩将首次加息预期提前到2022年9月，并预计2023年底前累计加息125个基点。\n摩根士丹利认为，这并不会改变大局，而是步伐上的一个调整。大摩基于美国经济强劲增长、通胀高企和美联储一开始的态度极其鹰派的假设，在报告中表达了收紧货币政策时间缩短、美元指数（DXY）保持多头趋势、看跌黄金、看涨能源、相对于新兴市场更偏向于欧盟和日本，美国市场仍然是核心等观点，并认为全球经济增长会更好和政策会更加紧缩。\n在美联储第一次加息前后会发生什么呢？大摩认为，美国国债和公司债券在第一次加息前后都会较弱。而美国股市，科技板块和非必需消费板块在加息前表现强劲，但在加息后表现不佳。DXY在第一次加息时保持强劲，但在加息后的几个月内有所减弱。铜和布伦特原油走势更强，黄金较弱，尤其是在加息前。\n同样的故事，不同的道路\n1. 美联储加快步伐影响有限\n美联储政策声明和鲍威尔言论表明，对通胀的容忍度降低，这一转变意味着加息将提前开始。\n摩根士丹利认为一方面，这些变化是巨大的，但另一方面，其对大摩的市场战略的影响相对有限。原因有两方面：\n首先，考虑到高通胀水平，市场一直看不到美联储在短期内采取鸽派行动的动机。只有通胀数据在3月至5月开始缓和后，美联储才会开始指导以后的加息。这也正是大摩看涨DXY，而对新型市场资产持冷淡态度的原因。\n第二，如果美联储在2022年不加息，市场会认为2023或2024年有必要进一步加息。\n2. 货币紧缩时期各类资产表现\n大摩预计在一个经济良好增长而政策较为紧缩的世界中：\n\n核心利率和实际债券收益率更高；\n公司债和政府债券等资产表现较好；\n欧洲和日本股市相对于其他地区的回报率更高，因为全球经济增长强劲，受美联储紧缩政策影响较小；\n美国大盘防御性优质股票表现较好；美元走强；\n石油走强，黄金走弱，经济增长，石油需求增加，而加息时黄金承压。\n\n以史为鉴，资产有什么表现？\n随着美联储反应和利率路径的重大变化，大摩称应为更高的利率定位投资组合。\n大摩对最终利率的预期不变，将2022年第四季度10年期美债收益率预测保持在2.10%。\n大摩分析师预计，到2022年第四季度，两年期美债收益率将达到1.25%，比之前的预期高出25个基点。\n\n大摩回顾过去加息周期中的跨资产表现和估值，指出了以下五点：\n1. 美联储加息一个月后，股票回报基本为负，能源、电信和公用事业表现优于大盘。此后回报率趋于恢复，尤其是在新兴市场。\n2.DXY在加息中反弹，可能是由于市场预期更高利率。美元在加息后横盘移动，并在六个月后走弱。\n3. 加息推高债券收益率，而美国国债和德国国债的总回报率则下降。\n4. 信贷超额收益的情况更为复杂，一旦市场消化了第一次加息，收益率就会走强。\n5.大宗商品在第一次加息前往往表现不佳，在第一次加息后往往表现出色。\n\n从初始估值来看，大摩发现现今比以往加息周期开始的估值要高得多，而美国除外。这是大摩偏好欧洲和日本股票而非美国股票的一个关键因素。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":639677709,"gmtCreate":1643293588801,"gmtModify":1643293588958,"author":{"id":"4096995948990380","authorId":"4096995948990380","name":"leema123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07373ef431ea86ac4c4d92fe8616e713","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639677709","repostId":"639380035","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":639380035,"gmtCreate":1643165341270,"gmtModify":1643202705906,"author":{"id":"3572034257249930","authorId":"3572034257249930","name":"SCLOW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"Alibaba, JD.com pace stock losses in Hong Kong","htmlText":"Chinese technology stocks tumbled in Hong Kong, tracking a slump in US peers and digital assets as traders turned cautious on policy tightening risks and the city recorded the most Covid-19 cases in 18 months. The Hang Seng Tech Index lost 2.8 per cent at the close of Monday trading, the steepest in two weeks as Alibaba Group Holding and JD.com led the pullback for a second day. The Hang Seng Index retreated 1.2 per cent, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index erassed losses to end little changed. Major Asian markets were mixed. Shares in South Korea retreated by 1.5 per cent, while Australian stocks lost 0.5 per cent. The Japanese benchmark rose 0.2 per cent. “The start of Fed hiking cycles tends to pose a modest headwind to Asian equities,” strategists at Goldman Sachs wrote in a report","listText":"Chinese technology stocks tumbled in Hong Kong, tracking a slump in US peers and digital assets as traders turned cautious on policy tightening risks and the city recorded the most Covid-19 cases in 18 months. The Hang Seng Tech Index lost 2.8 per cent at the close of Monday trading, the steepest in two weeks as Alibaba Group Holding and JD.com led the pullback for a second day. The Hang Seng Index retreated 1.2 per cent, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index erassed losses to end little changed. Major Asian markets were mixed. Shares in South Korea retreated by 1.5 per cent, while Australian stocks lost 0.5 per cent. The Japanese benchmark rose 0.2 per cent. “The start of Fed hiking cycles tends to pose a modest headwind to Asian equities,” strategists at Goldman Sachs wrote in a report","text":"Chinese technology stocks tumbled in Hong Kong, tracking a slump in US peers and digital assets as traders turned cautious on policy tightening risks and the city recorded the most Covid-19 cases in 18 months. The Hang Seng Tech Index lost 2.8 per cent at the close of Monday trading, the steepest in two weeks as Alibaba Group Holding and JD.com led the pullback for a second day. The Hang Seng Index retreated 1.2 per cent, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index erassed losses to end little changed. Major Asian markets were mixed. Shares in South Korea retreated by 1.5 per cent, while Australian stocks lost 0.5 per cent. The Japanese benchmark rose 0.2 per cent. “The start of Fed hiking cycles tends to pose a modest headwind to Asian equities,” strategists at Goldman Sachs wrote in a report","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639380035","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
