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2021-09-15

Hmm 🤔

2021-09-07

Up up n away

Apple Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell? Wait For The Dip First To Buy

2021-09-02

Sharing is Caring

2021-08-31

Malaysia Boleh 👍

2021-08-26

To the moon…

2021-08-24

Gone with the wind 💨

Why is Biden in big trouble now?

2021-08-23

Bitcoins or Stock Market?

2021-08-23

帮忙点赞👍谢谢

Contrarian Investors Should Love Emerging Markets

2021-08-21

Thanks Tiger🤩

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Wait For The Dip First To Buy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139582863","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is facing potential headwinds regarding its App Store take rate, but investors should","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple is facing potential headwinds regarding its App Store take rate, but investors should be reminded that such issues are nothing new for the company.</li>\n <li>Even though iPhone is still the key revenue and profit driver, investors should watch its fast-growing services segment closely.</li>\n <li>Nevertheless, Apple needs to demonstrate that it can grow its services segment quickly moving forward to justify its premium valuation.</li>\n <li>Given its valuation right now, it's hard for us to justify a Buy rating, but we don't encourage readers to bet against the company as well.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)recently celebrated CEO Tim Cook's tenth year in charge since its visionary founder, the late Steve Jobs, stepped down in Aug 2011. Under Tim Cook's stewardship, the iPhone continues to be a key revenue driver since reinventing the smartphone landscape 15 years ago and helped AAPL reached the pinnacle as the world's most valuable company.</p>\n<p>While the media focused their attention on the regulatory concerns regarding its 30% take rate from its App Store, AAPL's investors have largely brushed it aside as they turned their eye to the impending iPhone 13 launch knowing that having to contend with regulators is nothing new, and is largely expected, as they are smart enough to focus on the forest and not the trees.</p>\n<p>In this article, we help our readers to focus on the big picture of Apple's burgeoning services segment, which we think investors don't give enough credit to CEO Tim Cook for, even as the company navigates high expectations with its iPhone 13 sales, 5G ramp and an expected slowdown in revenue and profit growth moving forward.</p>\n<p>We will also present our valuation argument for Apple Inc., from the EBIT and EBITDA perspective, as well as our analysis of AAPL stock's price action to help investors decide whether to add exposure to AAPL now.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Stock YTD Performance</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11254a709c567ca88d28b9b8487819e0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>FAANG YTD performance (as of 2 Sep 21).</i></p>\n<p>AAPL stock's YTD performance has underperformed Invesco QQQ ETF(NASDAQ:QQQ), together with Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)and Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX), as Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)easily outperformed the trio with their fast-growing, highly profitable, and dominant digital advertising duopoly (that we highlighted in a recent The Trade Desk(NASDAQ:TTD)article, appendedhere).</p>\n<p>Theglobal digital advertising marketis expected to continue its stellar expansion as the market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 14.3% from $378B in 2020 to $646B by 2024, while the global smartphone market (by shipment) is only expected to grow by 7.7% YoY in 2021 to 1.38B units, and YoY growth is expected to slow subsequently to 3.8% in 2022 and then to about 2% by 2025 according toIDC forecasts. Therefore we think that the 5G ramp will likely boost sales from Apple's 5G upgrade through 2022 before the going gets tougher moving forward. As a result, AAPL's share price may likely face growth headwinds due to the stock's current valuation, which we will discuss in the subsequent sections.</p>\n<p><b>iPhone is Important, But Apple's Services Segment is Growing Its Clout</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a51d89975f674cdcc4911ec4a9893\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Apple total revenue (by FY and LTM) and revenue forecast mean consensus. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63aa2ec0d4263a3b5ed73478f7241c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Apple revenue by product (By FY). Data source: Company filings</i></p>\n<p>While consistent, Apple's revenue growth from 2016 to 2020 was certainly not spectacular as it grew by a CAGR of just 6.22%, even though 2021 has been a remarkable year as its LTM revenue reached $347B. Readers should also be able to easily glean that the Street is also not optimistic that Apple would be able to continue its stellar 2021 performance moving forward as revenue is expected to increase from $366B in FY21 to $447B by FY25, which represents a CAGR of just about 5.1% over the next 4 years, that's even slower than its FY16 to the FY20 CAGR.</p>\n<p>An important point for investors to note is that iPhone's revenue actually fell in FY19 and FY20, and despite that, the company still managed to eke out an increase in revenue in FY20. Notably, Apple's services segment has been growing remarkably to support the company's revenue growth. Its revenue increased by a CAGR of 20.3% from FY18 to FY20. Its revenue also reached $50.2B based on its collective performance from Q1'21 to Q3'21.</p>\n<p>Therefore, while iPhone continues to be a vital segment for the company as it accounted for 54.2% of the first three quarters' revenue, astute investors have been keeping an eye on the company's fast-growing services segment, which they believe will be the key driver of growth for the company moving forward.</p>\n<p>In fact, we think Roku(NASDAQ:ROKU)might even have found Apple's margins with its hardware segments enviable, as investors in Roku know that the Connected TV (CTV) platform leader uses a low-margin hardware penetration gameplan to attract users onto its platform for the company to leverage their highly effective monetization strategies (we shared this in a recent Roku article, link to the article is appendedhere), that the company was willing to even go into negative margins in Q2 to absorb the costs pressure relating to the semiconductor supply chain issues.</p>\n<p>However, Apple operates with a much higher gross margin for its hardware segments, which has been close to 40% over time, which has not only helped to make a tidy profit off its hardware but has also given the company a huge installed base of Apple devices to monetize through its services segment.</p>\n<p>In our recent article on Digital Turbine(NASDAQ:APPS), we shared that iOS has a global market share of about 26.3%, against an estimated global installed base of 6.2B units in 2021 (link to the article is appendedhere). This means that Apple is expected to have a total iOS installed base of about 1.63B units by the end of this year that the company can leverage, and we think the potential is massive.</p>\n<p>According to Apple's filings, its services segment consists of sales \"from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare®, digital content, and other services. Services net sales also include amortization of the deferred value of Maps, Siri, and free iCloud storage and Apple TV+SM services, which are bundled in the sales price of certain products.\"</p>\n<p>Therefore, it's a segment with huge potential. Currently, the most important sub-segment within services is none other than its lucrative Apps store. Even more amazing is that despite iOS having only a 26% share of the global installed base, Apps store revenue has consistently outperformed Google Play revenue. The same trend is expected to continue as iOS consumers were expected to spend $41.5B in H1'21 compared to $23.4B for Google Play consumers from an earlierstudy in Juneby Sensor Tower. Using a 30% take rate as a basis, the Apps Store was expected to generate about $12.45B in commissions, accounting for 38.1% of H1'21 services revenue of $32.7B. Importantly, this is also a highly profitable segment, ascourt documentson Alphabet showed that its Play store posted an operating margin of 62.5% in 2019 (Google doesn't break out its Play store margins).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74e1421d1674431ff9e387d6ec8d4f62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>App Store profitability estimates analysis. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ, various company filings, Reuters, Alphabet</i></p>\n<p>If we consider Apple's overall LTM operating margin of 28.8%, then we are pretty sure App's store margins are a big deal, even though based on its annual run rate of $25B, it is only expected to account for just 6.8% of FY21 consensus revenue estimates. However, if we look at Apple Inc.'s FY21 EBIT estimates of $108.7B (estimated EBIT margin of 29.7%), the App Store is expected to account for 14.4% of Apple's total EBIT estimates for FY21. It's unequivocally a crucial revenue and profit driver for Apple to protect and sustain, especially since the App Store revenue grew 22.1% YoY in H1'21. Moreover, with Apple's iPhone sales doing extremely well in FY21 so far (iPhone's revenue for Q1-Q3 has already exceeded FY19 and FY20 total iPhone revenue), we think the momentum for App Store is only just getting started.</p>\n<p><b>The App Store is a Key Beneficiary of Mobile Gaming</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f974b56f9fab5f9d406a8a2053249aa6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Mobile gaming content market worldwide. Data source: Capcom; International Development Group</i></p>\n<p>Mobile gaming is expected to grow consistently over the next few years, from $121.1B in 2020 to $169.7B by 2025, representing a CAGR of about 7%. We highlighted in our recent articles on Roblox(NYSE:RBLX)and Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)how mobile gaming's secular growth is not just a COVID-19 phenomenon (link to the articles are appendedhereandhere).</p>\n<p>Therefore, it's clear that the App Store is a key beneficiary of mobile gaming's secular growth, and we can definitely observe in its H1'21 performance as in-game spending increased by 13.5% YoY from $22.9B in H1'20 to $26B in H1'21, which also represented 62.7% of App Store's H1'21 revenue.</p>\n<p>Therefore, we are not surprised that the recent furor over Apple's take rate from the App Store has caused lots of confusion and chatter about whether it will lead to the dismantling of Apple's closely-guarded, highly lucrative revenue stream.</p>\n<p>We think Apple has certainly recognized the need to placate regulators about its supposed \"monopolistic\" behavior by allowing theso-called reader appsto be exempted from its commissions. Still, it is important to note that this does not affect gaming apps and in-app purchases, thus allowing Apple to continue relying on their most lucrative gaming apps to drive revenue growth.</p>\n<p>Despite that, therecent billby the South Korean parliament to disallow app store operators from charging commissions on in-app purchases should be carefully watched, as this may have ramifications around the world if regulators were to follow the signal from South Korea. Nevertheless, we will like to remind our readers not to overreact to such developments but to keep calm and observe. Apple didn't get to become the world's most valuable company without overcoming its fair share of regulatory issues, and we should certainly expect the management to show similar resilience and fortitude as they had in the past.</p>\n<p><b>Advertising is the Trump Card</b></p>\n<p>We highlighted previously in our recent article on Amazon where we discussed why advertising is the most underrated segment for the e-commerce behemoth, as it's the company's fastest-growing segment (link to the article is appendedhere).</p>\n<p>We think likewise for Apple; we encourage investors never to underestimate Apple's ability to monetize its users. We have seen earlier how, despite iOS having just 26% of the global installed base, the App Store revenue easily outsized Google Play's revenue in H1'21. With a global installed base that's 1.6B and growing, there are many monetization opportunities that Apple can certainly leverage.</p>\n<p>For example, in our Digital Turbine articles (the most recent one ishere), we showed how lucrative the content discovery business for APPS is, even though the company mainly worked with the Android OS. Now, the company has a full-stack ad tech platform for its expanded digital media business. Therefore, we think this is a marvelous opportunity for Apple, as the owner of the iOS ecosystem, to expand on its content discovery offerings for its app developers who want to cut through the clutter of apps to appear in front of consumers, which is a $500M business for Digital Turbine's work on the Android OS. Although it's not a big deal for Apple, it shows various opportunities for monetization that the company can expand into.</p>\n<p>In addition, Apple has also been able to capitalize on Google's advertising growth by using Google as the default search engine for iOS. Based onBernstein's estimates, Google paid about $10B to Apple for that in FY20, and thus it is an important revenue driver for the services segment, besides the App Store revenue.</p>\n<p>Importantly, Apple's ad revenue from its own App Store is estimated to account for$3B of FY21's revenue, up from a mere $300M in FY17, a 10x growth in 4 years. We don't find the projections unreasonable if readers refer to our Amazon article. The company grew its ad revenue by a CAGR of 74% from 2017 and 2019 and by 52% YoY even during 2020's pandemic year. The advertising momentum that Amazon has experienced from its e-commerce marketplace is truly phenomenal, which generates 90% of its advertising revenue, which was worth $21.45B in FY20, up from just $4.65B in FY17.</p>\n<p>Therefore we think the advertising potential from the App Store ads is likely to be in the early innings of its growth, and we highly encourage investors to watch this space closely. Even though Bernstein's estimates of about $20B (4.5% of FY25 estimated revenue) worth of ad revenue by FY25 may not be a blockbuster number when we compare it to FY25's estimated revenue of $447B, this is likely going be a highly profitable segment that can garner an operating margin in the range of 35% to 40% (equivalent to about $7b to $8B in operating profits) as we demonstrated in our Amazon article. Against an estimated EBIT of $104.9B by FY25, a 7% potential contribution from advertising that is growing is definitely an important diversification from the troubles brewing over its App Store take rate, as well as a potential slowdown in growth on its hardware segments.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Stock Looks Fairly Valued for Now</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e307e213aa591ed575a94d8d851f02ae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>EBIT multiples valuation comps set. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02c49b9d4862250203a702d7038923cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>EBITDA multiples valuation comps set. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</i></p>\n<p>We think why investors have often found it challenging to understand the valuation for AAPL is because they often compared it to its smartphone peers such as Samsung(OTC:SSNLF)(KRX:A005930) or Xiaomi(OTCPK:XIACY), which trade at much lower valuation multiples (whether EBIT or EBITDA) as compared to AAPL, especially when AAPL is not expected to be growing as fast, moving forward.</p>\n<p>Investors should observe that AAPL is trading as if it's a major player in the digital advertising market like its FAANG peers: Alphabet and Facebook. We think for investors to make sense of Apple's valuation, it really depends on how Apple will be able to monetize its huge installed base and grow its advertising revenue rapidly to convince investors that it's deserving of its premium price, even though it remains a highly profitable business, much more than Xiaomi.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c059c6e6a89d5a187415238276831a5b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>AAPL Street mean target price. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium</i></p>\n<p>We decided to give AAPL the benefit of the doubt and valued the company based on its estimated FY22 trading multiples (EBIT: 20.7x, EBITDA: 18.9x) and derived an implied fair value of around $143.9 based on its EBIT and EBITDA multiples at the midpoint of its fair value range. This suggests that the stock has a potential downside of about 6% (not including the margin of safety) from its last closing price of $153.90. Readers who would like to review our valuation models can refer to themhereandhere.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, based on the Street's mean target price of $164.33, the stock is valued at an FY22 implied EBIT multiple of about 22.1x, which we think looks like a premium valuation that the Street is willing to extend the Cupertino company.</p>\n<p><b>Price Action and Trend Analysis</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06b641ba94ad84041dc4506b96cefb32\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>AAPL stock price action (weekly).</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc9058c67b259dc384c1912b1a5e9074\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>AAPL EV/Fwd EBIT trend.</i></p>\n<p>While we don't find a preferred entry point on AAPL right now, AAPL stock's long-term uptrend is unambivalent no matter how we see it. In addition, investors can easily glean from its EV/Fwd EBIT trend that the stock has never traded cheaply over the last 5 years with a mean EBIT multiple of about 14.6x, even though the market is willing to value AAPL at a much higher valuation now at 22.97x EBIT.</p>\n<p>Therefore, while we are excited about the company's growth prospects around its advertising segment and its App Stores potential given its huge installed base, we are wary of the valuation placed by the market on AAPL right now and encourage investors to wait for a major retracement, before considering adding new exposure to AAPL.</p>\n<p>As a result, we<i>rate AAPL at neutral</i>for now.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell? Wait For The Dip First To Buy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell? Wait For The Dip First To Buy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-07 22:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453887-apple-stock-good-time-buy-sell><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple is facing potential headwinds regarding its App Store take rate, but investors should be reminded that such issues are nothing new for the company.\nEven though iPhone is still the key ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453887-apple-stock-good-time-buy-sell\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453887-apple-stock-good-time-buy-sell","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1139582863","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is facing potential headwinds regarding its App Store take rate, but investors should be reminded that such issues are nothing new for the company.\nEven though iPhone is still the key revenue and profit driver, investors should watch its fast-growing services segment closely.\nNevertheless, Apple needs to demonstrate that it can grow its services segment quickly moving forward to justify its premium valuation.\nGiven its valuation right now, it's hard for us to justify a Buy rating, but we don't encourage readers to bet against the company as well.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nApple(NASDAQ:AAPL)recently celebrated CEO Tim Cook's tenth year in charge since its visionary founder, the late Steve Jobs, stepped down in Aug 2011. Under Tim Cook's stewardship, the iPhone continues to be a key revenue driver since reinventing the smartphone landscape 15 years ago and helped AAPL reached the pinnacle as the world's most valuable company.\nWhile the media focused their attention on the regulatory concerns regarding its 30% take rate from its App Store, AAPL's investors have largely brushed it aside as they turned their eye to the impending iPhone 13 launch knowing that having to contend with regulators is nothing new, and is largely expected, as they are smart enough to focus on the forest and not the trees.\nIn this article, we help our readers to focus on the big picture of Apple's burgeoning services segment, which we think investors don't give enough credit to CEO Tim Cook for, even as the company navigates high expectations with its iPhone 13 sales, 5G ramp and an expected slowdown in revenue and profit growth moving forward.\nWe will also present our valuation argument for Apple Inc., from the EBIT and EBITDA perspective, as well as our analysis of AAPL stock's price action to help investors decide whether to add exposure to AAPL now.\nApple Stock YTD Performance\nFAANG YTD performance (as of 2 Sep 21).\nAAPL stock's YTD performance has underperformed Invesco QQQ ETF(NASDAQ:QQQ), together with Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)and Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX), as Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)easily outperformed the trio with their fast-growing, highly profitable, and dominant digital advertising duopoly (that we highlighted in a recent The Trade Desk(NASDAQ:TTD)article, appendedhere).\nTheglobal digital advertising marketis expected to continue its stellar expansion as the market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 14.3% from $378B in 2020 to $646B by 2024, while the global smartphone market (by shipment) is only expected to grow by 7.7% YoY in 2021 to 1.38B units, and YoY growth is expected to slow subsequently to 3.8% in 2022 and then to about 2% by 2025 according toIDC forecasts. Therefore we think that the 5G ramp will likely boost sales from Apple's 5G upgrade through 2022 before the going gets tougher moving forward. As a result, AAPL's share price may likely face growth headwinds due to the stock's current valuation, which we will discuss in the subsequent sections.\niPhone is Important, But Apple's Services Segment is Growing Its Clout\nApple total revenue (by FY and LTM) and revenue forecast mean consensus. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nApple revenue by product (By FY). Data source: Company filings\nWhile consistent, Apple's revenue growth from 2016 to 2020 was certainly not spectacular as it grew by a CAGR of just 6.22%, even though 2021 has been a remarkable year as its LTM revenue reached $347B. Readers should also be able to easily glean that the Street is also not optimistic that Apple would be able to continue its stellar 2021 performance moving forward as revenue is expected to increase from $366B in FY21 to $447B by FY25, which represents a CAGR of just about 5.1% over the next 4 years, that's even slower than its FY16 to the FY20 CAGR.\nAn important point for investors to note is that iPhone's revenue actually fell in FY19 and FY20, and despite that, the company still managed to eke out an increase in revenue in FY20. Notably, Apple's services segment has been growing remarkably to support the company's revenue growth. Its revenue increased by a CAGR of 20.3% from FY18 to FY20. Its revenue also reached $50.2B based on its collective performance from Q1'21 to Q3'21.\nTherefore, while iPhone continues to be a vital segment for the company as it accounted for 54.2% of the first three quarters' revenue, astute investors have been keeping an eye on the company's fast-growing services segment, which they believe will be the key driver of growth for the company moving forward.\nIn fact, we think Roku(NASDAQ:ROKU)might even have found Apple's margins with its hardware segments enviable, as investors in Roku know that the Connected TV (CTV) platform leader uses a low-margin hardware penetration gameplan to attract users onto its platform for the company to leverage their highly effective monetization strategies (we shared this in a recent Roku article, link to the article is appendedhere), that the company was willing to even go into negative margins in Q2 to absorb the costs pressure relating to the semiconductor supply chain issues.\nHowever, Apple operates with a much higher gross margin for its hardware segments, which has been close to 40% over time, which has not only helped to make a tidy profit off its hardware but has also given the company a huge installed base of Apple devices to monetize through its services segment.\nIn our recent article on Digital Turbine(NASDAQ:APPS), we shared that iOS has a global market share of about 26.3%, against an estimated global installed base of 6.2B units in 2021 (link to the article is appendedhere). This means that Apple is expected to have a total iOS installed base of about 1.63B units by the end of this year that the company can leverage, and we think the potential is massive.\nAccording to Apple's filings, its services segment consists of sales \"from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare®, digital content, and other services. Services net sales also include amortization of the deferred value of Maps, Siri, and free iCloud storage and Apple TV+SM services, which are bundled in the sales price of certain products.\"\nTherefore, it's a segment with huge potential. Currently, the most important sub-segment within services is none other than its lucrative Apps store. Even more amazing is that despite iOS having only a 26% share of the global installed base, Apps store revenue has consistently outperformed Google Play revenue. The same trend is expected to continue as iOS consumers were expected to spend $41.5B in H1'21 compared to $23.4B for Google Play consumers from an earlierstudy in Juneby Sensor Tower. Using a 30% take rate as a basis, the Apps Store was expected to generate about $12.45B in commissions, accounting for 38.1% of H1'21 services revenue of $32.7B. Importantly, this is also a highly profitable segment, ascourt documentson Alphabet showed that its Play store posted an operating margin of 62.5% in 2019 (Google doesn't break out its Play store margins).\nApp Store profitability estimates analysis. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, various company filings, Reuters, Alphabet\nIf we consider Apple's overall LTM operating margin of 28.8%, then we are pretty sure App's store margins are a big deal, even though based on its annual run rate of $25B, it is only expected to account for just 6.8% of FY21 consensus revenue estimates. However, if we look at Apple Inc.'s FY21 EBIT estimates of $108.7B (estimated EBIT margin of 29.7%), the App Store is expected to account for 14.4% of Apple's total EBIT estimates for FY21. It's unequivocally a crucial revenue and profit driver for Apple to protect and sustain, especially since the App Store revenue grew 22.1% YoY in H1'21. Moreover, with Apple's iPhone sales doing extremely well in FY21 so far (iPhone's revenue for Q1-Q3 has already exceeded FY19 and FY20 total iPhone revenue), we think the momentum for App Store is only just getting started.\nThe App Store is a Key Beneficiary of Mobile Gaming\nMobile gaming content market worldwide. Data source: Capcom; International Development Group\nMobile gaming is expected to grow consistently over the next few years, from $121.1B in 2020 to $169.7B by 2025, representing a CAGR of about 7%. We highlighted in our recent articles on Roblox(NYSE:RBLX)and Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)how mobile gaming's secular growth is not just a COVID-19 phenomenon (link to the articles are appendedhereandhere).\nTherefore, it's clear that the App Store is a key beneficiary of mobile gaming's secular growth, and we can definitely observe in its H1'21 performance as in-game spending increased by 13.5% YoY from $22.9B in H1'20 to $26B in H1'21, which also represented 62.7% of App Store's H1'21 revenue.\nTherefore, we are not surprised that the recent furor over Apple's take rate from the App Store has caused lots of confusion and chatter about whether it will lead to the dismantling of Apple's closely-guarded, highly lucrative revenue stream.\nWe think Apple has certainly recognized the need to placate regulators about its supposed \"monopolistic\" behavior by allowing theso-called reader appsto be exempted from its commissions. Still, it is important to note that this does not affect gaming apps and in-app purchases, thus allowing Apple to continue relying on their most lucrative gaming apps to drive revenue growth.\nDespite that, therecent billby the South Korean parliament to disallow app store operators from charging commissions on in-app purchases should be carefully watched, as this may have ramifications around the world if regulators were to follow the signal from South Korea. Nevertheless, we will like to remind our readers not to overreact to such developments but to keep calm and observe. Apple didn't get to become the world's most valuable company without overcoming its fair share of regulatory issues, and we should certainly expect the management to show similar resilience and fortitude as they had in the past.\nAdvertising is the Trump Card\nWe highlighted previously in our recent article on Amazon where we discussed why advertising is the most underrated segment for the e-commerce behemoth, as it's the company's fastest-growing segment (link to the article is appendedhere).\nWe think likewise for Apple; we encourage investors never to underestimate Apple's ability to monetize its users. We have seen earlier how, despite iOS having just 26% of the global installed base, the App Store revenue easily outsized Google Play's revenue in H1'21. With a global installed base that's 1.6B and growing, there are many monetization opportunities that Apple can certainly leverage.\nFor example, in our Digital Turbine articles (the most recent one ishere), we showed how lucrative the content discovery business for APPS is, even though the company mainly worked with the Android OS. Now, the company has a full-stack ad tech platform for its expanded digital media business. Therefore, we think this is a marvelous opportunity for Apple, as the owner of the iOS ecosystem, to expand on its content discovery offerings for its app developers who want to cut through the clutter of apps to appear in front of consumers, which is a $500M business for Digital Turbine's work on the Android OS. Although it's not a big deal for Apple, it shows various opportunities for monetization that the company can expand into.\nIn addition, Apple has also been able to capitalize on Google's advertising growth by using Google as the default search engine for iOS. Based onBernstein's estimates, Google paid about $10B to Apple for that in FY20, and thus it is an important revenue driver for the services segment, besides the App Store revenue.\nImportantly, Apple's ad revenue from its own App Store is estimated to account for$3B of FY21's revenue, up from a mere $300M in FY17, a 10x growth in 4 years. We don't find the projections unreasonable if readers refer to our Amazon article. The company grew its ad revenue by a CAGR of 74% from 2017 and 2019 and by 52% YoY even during 2020's pandemic year. The advertising momentum that Amazon has experienced from its e-commerce marketplace is truly phenomenal, which generates 90% of its advertising revenue, which was worth $21.45B in FY20, up from just $4.65B in FY17.\nTherefore we think the advertising potential from the App Store ads is likely to be in the early innings of its growth, and we highly encourage investors to watch this space closely. Even though Bernstein's estimates of about $20B (4.5% of FY25 estimated revenue) worth of ad revenue by FY25 may not be a blockbuster number when we compare it to FY25's estimated revenue of $447B, this is likely going be a highly profitable segment that can garner an operating margin in the range of 35% to 40% (equivalent to about $7b to $8B in operating profits) as we demonstrated in our Amazon article. Against an estimated EBIT of $104.9B by FY25, a 7% potential contribution from advertising that is growing is definitely an important diversification from the troubles brewing over its App Store take rate, as well as a potential slowdown in growth on its hardware segments.\nApple Stock Looks Fairly Valued for Now\nEBIT multiples valuation comps set. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEBITDA multiples valuation comps set. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe think why investors have often found it challenging to understand the valuation for AAPL is because they often compared it to its smartphone peers such as Samsung(OTC:SSNLF)(KRX:A005930) or Xiaomi(OTCPK:XIACY), which trade at much lower valuation multiples (whether EBIT or EBITDA) as compared to AAPL, especially when AAPL is not expected to be growing as fast, moving forward.\nInvestors should observe that AAPL is trading as if it's a major player in the digital advertising market like its FAANG peers: Alphabet and Facebook. We think for investors to make sense of Apple's valuation, it really depends on how Apple will be able to monetize its huge installed base and grow its advertising revenue rapidly to convince investors that it's deserving of its premium price, even though it remains a highly profitable business, much more than Xiaomi.\nAAPL Street mean target price. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium\nWe decided to give AAPL the benefit of the doubt and valued the company based on its estimated FY22 trading multiples (EBIT: 20.7x, EBITDA: 18.9x) and derived an implied fair value of around $143.9 based on its EBIT and EBITDA multiples at the midpoint of its fair value range. This suggests that the stock has a potential downside of about 6% (not including the margin of safety) from its last closing price of $153.90. Readers who would like to review our valuation models can refer to themhereandhere.\nMeanwhile, based on the Street's mean target price of $164.33, the stock is valued at an FY22 implied EBIT multiple of about 22.1x, which we think looks like a premium valuation that the Street is willing to extend the Cupertino company.\nPrice Action and Trend Analysis\nAAPL stock price action (weekly).\nAAPL EV/Fwd EBIT trend.\nWhile we don't find a preferred entry point on AAPL right now, AAPL stock's long-term uptrend is unambivalent no matter how we see it. In addition, investors can easily glean from its EV/Fwd EBIT trend that the stock has never traded cheaply over the last 5 years with a mean EBIT multiple of about 14.6x, even though the market is willing to value AAPL at a much higher valuation now at 22.97x EBIT.\nTherefore, while we are excited about the company's growth prospects around its advertising segment and its App Stores potential given its huge installed base, we are wary of the valuation placed by the market on AAPL right now and encourage investors to wait for a major retracement, before considering adding new exposure to AAPL.\nAs a result, werate AAPL at neutralfor now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":107,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812955039,"gmtCreate":1630548446221,"gmtModify":1632473241069,"author":{"id":"4092553499610860","authorId":"4092553499610860","name":"SunnyDayz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/147d9d4c2877cd0437791d52bcd7f026","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092553499610860","idStr":"4092553499610860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sharing is Caring&nbsp;","listText":"Sharing is Caring&nbsp;","text":"Sharing is Caring","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0eb4ce77ec182996b6afed0c86a42d","width":"828","height":"1264"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812955039","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":87,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818511574,"gmtCreate":1630418975598,"gmtModify":1633678203577,"author":{"id":"4092553499610860","authorId":"4092553499610860","name":"SunnyDayz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/147d9d4c2877cd0437791d52bcd7f026","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092553499610860","idStr":"4092553499610860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Malaysia Boleh 👍","listText":"Malaysia Boleh 👍","text":"Malaysia Boleh 👍","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/316d433627d6e9e61c5505570eb472d8","width":"450","height":"352"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818511574","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":86,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837477017,"gmtCreate":1629910407239,"gmtModify":1633681525716,"author":{"id":"4092553499610860","authorId":"4092553499610860","name":"SunnyDayz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/147d9d4c2877cd0437791d52bcd7f026","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092553499610860","idStr":"4092553499610860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the moon…","listText":"To the moon…","text":"To the moon…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837477017","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":29,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834099096,"gmtCreate":1629760719415,"gmtModify":1633682723416,"author":{"id":"4092553499610860","authorId":"4092553499610860","name":"SunnyDayz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/147d9d4c2877cd0437791d52bcd7f026","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092553499610860","idStr":"4092553499610860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gone with the wind 💨&nbsp;","listText":"Gone with the wind 💨&nbsp;","text":"Gone with the wind 💨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834099096","repostId":"1194830258","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194830258","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629724597,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194830258?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 21:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why is Biden in big trouble now?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194830258","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Why is Biden in big trouble now? There are three thorny problems that Biden has to face currently. A","content":"<p>Why is Biden in big trouble now? There are three thorny problems that Biden has to face currently. As far as I am concerned, these issues are unsolvable.</p>\n<h3><b>The Crises Hidden Behind Kabul Airport</b></h3>\n<p>The United States quickly evacuated from Afghanistan on August 15. Both sides are suffering but must cut the Gordian knot quickly. It is seemingly that the United States could retain control of the situation if its troops continue to stay in Afghanistan, which, however, is meaningless even harmful for both sides. The decision to withdraw troops was emotionally difficult, but it did relieve many Americans, especially veterans. I once thought that over time, the public opinion supporting Biden's administration would rise instead of falling, but Kabul Airport began to stage scenes of humanitarian crises, which gradually transformed into Biden's first crisis.</p>\n<p>I can say with certainty that if the Taliban quickly started to retaliate and kill people in Afghanistan after the United States withdrew from Afghanistan on August 15, then Biden's next election will surely fail. From a certain perspective, Biden should be grateful to the Taliban. Although the United States has withdrawn its troops, the Taliban did not kill as many people predicted.</p>\n<p>There are now countless Afghans at Kabul Airport, demanding that the US military take them out of the country in turmoil. This scenario is no different from the scene in which many Central American immigrants on the US border strongly demanded to enter the United States when Trump and Biden took office. For Afghans, Kabul Airport and US military planes are the last hurdles to enter the United States, which acts as the US border. The pictures below show the Kabul Airport and the US border,&nbsp;respectively.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a667f0a34f54b1a99bbd143c92ecc7b\" tg-width=\"649\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef492b4fae26fd3576415c1eeb45e831\" tg-width=\"647\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>When Biden assumed office, people in many Central American countries felt that the new president was different from the former one, Trump. Biden would welcome immigrants, so many families decided to move to the United States. But the general public opinion in the United States, including many Democrats, is opposed to immigration. To prevent these Central American people from immigrating, Biden made two decisions: (1) Insisting on the policy issued by Trump; (2) The spread of coronavirus. On this basis, Biden allowed a small number of women and children to immigrate. Even so, it has been considered by American polls to be Biden's most failed policy.</p>\n<p>Unlike those immigrants, the reason for refugees from Afghanistan who requested to enter the United States was directly caused by Biden's decision of withdrawal.</p>\n<p>Biden emphasized that Americans and Afghans who \"helped the US military\" would be withdrawn. However, not all Afghans around the airport are those who helped the United States. Many ordinary people also want to leave Afghanistan and go to the United States. How does the US distinguish between them? (The issue should have been addressed long ago). From various videos, we can see that many Afghans hold documents in their hands, but how does the country distinguish which documents meet the requirements for entering the United States? Will the image of the United States be able to turn around gorgeously by evacuating all the Afghans who have helped the US military? Some international organizations estimate that about 300,000 Afghans helped the US military in the past.</p>\n<p>The longer the delay, the more serious the crisis. Will, the US military shoot back if this group of refugees suddenly rushes into the airport and US military planes? Biden must not serve another term of office if the answer is in the affirmative. Even if this situation does not happen, the likelihood of Biden's re-election will also be significantly reduced if the United States accepts too many Afghan refugees. Under such circumstances, Trump is very likely to regain the presidential seat.</p>\n<p>The first crisis is not completely unsolvable. Biden's only solution now is to delay making a decision. On the one hand, it helps to prevent too many Afghans from entering the United States. On the other hand, the solution allows the domestic media to gradually divert attention. As long as there is nothing bad happens, the crisis can be minimized. But Biden's other two crises cannot be solved by avoiding decisions.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why is Biden in big trouble now? </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy is Biden in big trouble now? \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-23 21:16</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Why is Biden in big trouble now? There are three thorny problems that Biden has to face currently. As far as I am concerned, these issues are unsolvable.</p>\n<h3><b>The Crises Hidden Behind Kabul Airport</b></h3>\n<p>The United States quickly evacuated from Afghanistan on August 15. Both sides are suffering but must cut the Gordian knot quickly. It is seemingly that the United States could retain control of the situation if its troops continue to stay in Afghanistan, which, however, is meaningless even harmful for both sides. The decision to withdraw troops was emotionally difficult, but it did relieve many Americans, especially veterans. I once thought that over time, the public opinion supporting Biden's administration would rise instead of falling, but Kabul Airport began to stage scenes of humanitarian crises, which gradually transformed into Biden's first crisis.</p>\n<p>I can say with certainty that if the Taliban quickly started to retaliate and kill people in Afghanistan after the United States withdrew from Afghanistan on August 15, then Biden's next election will surely fail. From a certain perspective, Biden should be grateful to the Taliban. Although the United States has withdrawn its troops, the Taliban did not kill as many people predicted.</p>\n<p>There are now countless Afghans at Kabul Airport, demanding that the US military take them out of the country in turmoil. This scenario is no different from the scene in which many Central American immigrants on the US border strongly demanded to enter the United States when Trump and Biden took office. For Afghans, Kabul Airport and US military planes are the last hurdles to enter the United States, which acts as the US border. The pictures below show the Kabul Airport and the US border,&nbsp;respectively.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a667f0a34f54b1a99bbd143c92ecc7b\" tg-width=\"649\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef492b4fae26fd3576415c1eeb45e831\" tg-width=\"647\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>When Biden assumed office, people in many Central American countries felt that the new president was different from the former one, Trump. Biden would welcome immigrants, so many families decided to move to the United States. But the general public opinion in the United States, including many Democrats, is opposed to immigration. To prevent these Central American people from immigrating, Biden made two decisions: (1) Insisting on the policy issued by Trump; (2) The spread of coronavirus. On this basis, Biden allowed a small number of women and children to immigrate. Even so, it has been considered by American polls to be Biden's most failed policy.</p>\n<p>Unlike those immigrants, the reason for refugees from Afghanistan who requested to enter the United States was directly caused by Biden's decision of withdrawal.</p>\n<p>Biden emphasized that Americans and Afghans who \"helped the US military\" would be withdrawn. However, not all Afghans around the airport are those who helped the United States. Many ordinary people also want to leave Afghanistan and go to the United States. How does the US distinguish between them? (The issue should have been addressed long ago). From various videos, we can see that many Afghans hold documents in their hands, but how does the country distinguish which documents meet the requirements for entering the United States? Will the image of the United States be able to turn around gorgeously by evacuating all the Afghans who have helped the US military? Some international organizations estimate that about 300,000 Afghans helped the US military in the past.</p>\n<p>The longer the delay, the more serious the crisis. Will, the US military shoot back if this group of refugees suddenly rushes into the airport and US military planes? Biden must not serve another term of office if the answer is in the affirmative. Even if this situation does not happen, the likelihood of Biden's re-election will also be significantly reduced if the United States accepts too many Afghan refugees. Under such circumstances, Trump is very likely to regain the presidential seat.</p>\n<p>The first crisis is not completely unsolvable. Biden's only solution now is to delay making a decision. On the one hand, it helps to prevent too many Afghans from entering the United States. On the other hand, the solution allows the domestic media to gradually divert attention. As long as there is nothing bad happens, the crisis can be minimized. But Biden's other two crises cannot be solved by avoiding decisions.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194830258","content_text":"Why is Biden in big trouble now? There are three thorny problems that Biden has to face currently. As far as I am concerned, these issues are unsolvable.\nThe Crises Hidden Behind Kabul Airport\nThe United States quickly evacuated from Afghanistan on August 15. Both sides are suffering but must cut the Gordian knot quickly. It is seemingly that the United States could retain control of the situation if its troops continue to stay in Afghanistan, which, however, is meaningless even harmful for both sides. The decision to withdraw troops was emotionally difficult, but it did relieve many Americans, especially veterans. I once thought that over time, the public opinion supporting Biden's administration would rise instead of falling, but Kabul Airport began to stage scenes of humanitarian crises, which gradually transformed into Biden's first crisis.\nI can say with certainty that if the Taliban quickly started to retaliate and kill people in Afghanistan after the United States withdrew from Afghanistan on August 15, then Biden's next election will surely fail. From a certain perspective, Biden should be grateful to the Taliban. Although the United States has withdrawn its troops, the Taliban did not kill as many people predicted.\nThere are now countless Afghans at Kabul Airport, demanding that the US military take them out of the country in turmoil. This scenario is no different from the scene in which many Central American immigrants on the US border strongly demanded to enter the United States when Trump and Biden took office. For Afghans, Kabul Airport and US military planes are the last hurdles to enter the United States, which acts as the US border. The pictures below show the Kabul Airport and the US border, respectively.\n\nWhen Biden assumed office, people in many Central American countries felt that the new president was different from the former one, Trump. Biden would welcome immigrants, so many families decided to move to the United States. But the general public opinion in the United States, including many Democrats, is opposed to immigration. To prevent these Central American people from immigrating, Biden made two decisions: (1) Insisting on the policy issued by Trump; (2) The spread of coronavirus. On this basis, Biden allowed a small number of women and children to immigrate. Even so, it has been considered by American polls to be Biden's most failed policy.\nUnlike those immigrants, the reason for refugees from Afghanistan who requested to enter the United States was directly caused by Biden's decision of withdrawal.\nBiden emphasized that Americans and Afghans who \"helped the US military\" would be withdrawn. However, not all Afghans around the airport are those who helped the United States. Many ordinary people also want to leave Afghanistan and go to the United States. How does the US distinguish between them? (The issue should have been addressed long ago). From various videos, we can see that many Afghans hold documents in their hands, but how does the country distinguish which documents meet the requirements for entering the United States? Will the image of the United States be able to turn around gorgeously by evacuating all the Afghans who have helped the US military? Some international organizations estimate that about 300,000 Afghans helped the US military in the past.\nThe longer the delay, the more serious the crisis. Will, the US military shoot back if this group of refugees suddenly rushes into the airport and US military planes? Biden must not serve another term of office if the answer is in the affirmative. Even if this situation does not happen, the likelihood of Biden's re-election will also be significantly reduced if the United States accepts too many Afghan refugees. Under such circumstances, Trump is very likely to regain the presidential seat.\nThe first crisis is not completely unsolvable. Biden's only solution now is to delay making a decision. On the one hand, it helps to prevent too many Afghans from entering the United States. On the other hand, the solution allows the domestic media to gradually divert attention. As long as there is nothing bad happens, the crisis can be minimized. But Biden's other two crises cannot be solved by avoiding decisions.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":57,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835465862,"gmtCreate":1629732836556,"gmtModify":1633682833816,"author":{"id":"4092553499610860","authorId":"4092553499610860","name":"SunnyDayz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/147d9d4c2877cd0437791d52bcd7f026","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092553499610860","idStr":"4092553499610860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bitcoins or Stock Market?","listText":"Bitcoins or Stock Market?","text":"Bitcoins or Stock Market?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8b8c3691c3c4d66eefe2213b70dea90","width":"782","height":"940"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835465862","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":19,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832595006,"gmtCreate":1629649275505,"gmtModify":1633683584249,"author":{"id":"4092553499610860","authorId":"4092553499610860","name":"SunnyDayz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/147d9d4c2877cd0437791d52bcd7f026","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092553499610860","idStr":"4092553499610860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"帮忙点赞👍谢谢","listText":"帮忙点赞👍谢谢","text":"帮忙点赞👍谢谢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832595006","repostId":"1115632642","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115632642","pubTimestamp":1629471872,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115632642?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-20 23:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Contrarian Investors Should Love Emerging Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115632642","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Stocks in developing countries are lagging behind those in the U.S. They could be poised to outperfo","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Stocks in developing countries are&nbsp;lagging behind those in the U.S. They could be poised to outperform in the coming years.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Emerging markets get no respect. Theyaccountfor about two-fifths of global gross domestic product and a quarter of global stocks by market value, and yet they’re a fraction of &nbsp;most U.S. investors’ stock portfolios. If there’s ever a time to give emerging markets another look, this is it.</p>\n<p>That’s because emerging-market stocks are lagging behind those in the U.S. by the biggest margin in two decades. The last time they were beaten this badly was when a wave of crises in developing countries slammed their stock markets during the late 1990s while dot-com mania lifted U.S. stocks to historic heights.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd22e89c12797121db43fe00543e1eb7\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"402\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>This time it’s about profits. U.S. companies have increased earnings at arecord ratein recent years while earnings growth in emerging markets has barely budged. Since 2010, earnings per share for the S&amp;P 500 Index has grown 9.5% a year, compared with just 2.7% for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. It wasn’t always this way. From 1995 to 2009, the first year for which numbers are available for emerging markets, earnings grew at roughly the same pace in developing countries as in the U.S., about 4% a year.</p>\n<p>Given the sharp divergence in earnings growth since 2010, the U.S. may seem like the better place to invest, even when all available earnings numbers are considered. Earnings growth, after all, is a key component of stock returns, and the U.S. is producing more of it. Assuming analysts’ estimates for this year and next are reliable, the S&amp;P 500 will have grown earnings 7.3% a year from 1995 to 2022, compared with just 4.4% a year for emerging markets. If U.S. companies were to maintain that lead, all else equal, expected returns would be 2.9 percentage points a year higher in the U.S. than in emerging markets.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30aba59eba1452ca5a877020ce216bec\" tg-width=\"633\" tg-height=\"418\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">But earnings growth isn’t the only driver of stock returns. Dividends and valuations play a role, too. When all three variables are considered, emerging markets appear to be the better bet. Analysts expect a dividend yield of 3% from emerging markets, compared with 1.5% for the S&amp;P 500. When combined with earnings growth, the advantage for U.S. stocks shrinks to 1.4 percentage points a year.</p>\n<p>Stocks are also much cheaper in emerging markets. They trade at 12 times next year’s earnings, whereas the comparable price-to-earnings ratio for the S&amp;P 500 is 20 times. That valuation gap tips the scale in favor of emerging markets. One way to compare price to expected payoff is to take a ratio of P/E to the sum of expected earnings growth and dividend yield (the lower the ratio the better). Based on the previous numbers, that ratio is 1.7 for emerging markets and 2.3 for the S&amp;P 500.</p>\n<p>And that may be the best case for U.S. stocks because it assumes U.S. companies will continue generating higher earnings growth and commanding much higher valuations than those in emerging markets, both questionable assumptions. It’s not obvious why earnings growth should be higher in the U.S. Investment in research and development, for instance, has beenshown to boost growth, and emerging-market companies spend as much on R&amp;D as a percentage of sales as companies in the U.S. In fact, they may soon spend more, as R&amp;D investment in emerging markets has grown at more than three times the U.S. rate since 1995.</p>\n<p>If anything, it’s more likely that earnings growth in emerging markets will outpace the U.S. in the years ahead. Developing economies are growing faster than the U.S., a tailwind for their companies, particularly as they grab market share in their countries from American companies. Also, given that recent earnings growth has been unusually high in the U.S. and strangely low in emerging markets, the roles may reverse for a while, bringing earnings growth between them closer to parity.</p>\n<p>The valuation gap between emerging markets and the U.S. could also narrow. The U.S. is rightly perceived as the safer place to invest, so it makes sense that investors are willing to pay more for U.S. companies. But how much more? The difference in P/E ratio based on forward earnings has averaged 4.7 times since 2005, the longest period for which numbers are available, and has rarely been as wide as it is today. If the gap were to close, it would be another boost for emerging markets relative to the U.S.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b9fb774ffbe544f200ac13222ee3b5e\" tg-width=\"649\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">All of that may explain why theconsensus among big money managersis that emerging markets will deliver higher returns than the U.S. in coming years. Value stocks in emerging markets may perform even better. With a price tag of just 9 times forward earnings, they could credibly be called the most despised stocks on the planet.</p>\n<p>Contrarian investors have taken note. Boston based money manager GMOestimatesthat emerging-market value stocks will return 3.2% a year after inflation over the next seven years, compared with a negative 8.2% a year for U.S. stocks. Rob Arnott, founder of index provider Research Affiliates, hassaidthat half of his liquid investments are invested in value stocks from developing countries.</p>\n<p>It’s worth noting that the last time emerging market stocks performed this badly relative to the U.S., they went on to beat the S&amp;P 500 by 14 percentage points a year from 2000 to 2007, and value stocks won by 15 percentage points a year. They did it by paying a higher dividend yield than U.S. stocks, generating nearly four times the earnings growth as U.S. companies and expanding their valuations while that of the S&amp;P 500 was cut by more than a third.</p>\n<p>I’m not suggesting investors replace their U.S. stocks with ones in emerging markets. But developing countries now account for about 12% of the MSCI All Country World Index, a widely followed gauge of the global stock market. Stock portfolios that allocate less than that to emerging markets should ask why — and it won’t be easy to answer.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Contrarian Investors Should Love Emerging Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nContrarian Investors Should Love Emerging Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-20 23:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-19/personal-finance-contrarian-investors-should-love-emerging-markets?srnd=opinion><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stocks in developing countries are lagging behind those in the U.S. They could be poised to outperform in the coming years.\n\nEmerging markets get no respect. Theyaccountfor about two-fifths of global ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-19/personal-finance-contrarian-investors-should-love-emerging-markets?srnd=opinion\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-19/personal-finance-contrarian-investors-should-love-emerging-markets?srnd=opinion","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115632642","content_text":"Stocks in developing countries are lagging behind those in the U.S. They could be poised to outperform in the coming years.\n\nEmerging markets get no respect. Theyaccountfor about two-fifths of global gross domestic product and a quarter of global stocks by market value, and yet they’re a fraction of  most U.S. investors’ stock portfolios. If there’s ever a time to give emerging markets another look, this is it.\nThat’s because emerging-market stocks are lagging behind those in the U.S. by the biggest margin in two decades. The last time they were beaten this badly was when a wave of crises in developing countries slammed their stock markets during the late 1990s while dot-com mania lifted U.S. stocks to historic heights.\n\nThis time it’s about profits. U.S. companies have increased earnings at arecord ratein recent years while earnings growth in emerging markets has barely budged. Since 2010, earnings per share for the S&P 500 Index has grown 9.5% a year, compared with just 2.7% for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. It wasn’t always this way. From 1995 to 2009, the first year for which numbers are available for emerging markets, earnings grew at roughly the same pace in developing countries as in the U.S., about 4% a year.\nGiven the sharp divergence in earnings growth since 2010, the U.S. may seem like the better place to invest, even when all available earnings numbers are considered. Earnings growth, after all, is a key component of stock returns, and the U.S. is producing more of it. Assuming analysts’ estimates for this year and next are reliable, the S&P 500 will have grown earnings 7.3% a year from 1995 to 2022, compared with just 4.4% a year for emerging markets. If U.S. companies were to maintain that lead, all else equal, expected returns would be 2.9 percentage points a year higher in the U.S. than in emerging markets.\nBut earnings growth isn’t the only driver of stock returns. Dividends and valuations play a role, too. When all three variables are considered, emerging markets appear to be the better bet. Analysts expect a dividend yield of 3% from emerging markets, compared with 1.5% for the S&P 500. When combined with earnings growth, the advantage for U.S. stocks shrinks to 1.4 percentage points a year.\nStocks are also much cheaper in emerging markets. They trade at 12 times next year’s earnings, whereas the comparable price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is 20 times. That valuation gap tips the scale in favor of emerging markets. One way to compare price to expected payoff is to take a ratio of P/E to the sum of expected earnings growth and dividend yield (the lower the ratio the better). Based on the previous numbers, that ratio is 1.7 for emerging markets and 2.3 for the S&P 500.\nAnd that may be the best case for U.S. stocks because it assumes U.S. companies will continue generating higher earnings growth and commanding much higher valuations than those in emerging markets, both questionable assumptions. It’s not obvious why earnings growth should be higher in the U.S. Investment in research and development, for instance, has beenshown to boost growth, and emerging-market companies spend as much on R&D as a percentage of sales as companies in the U.S. In fact, they may soon spend more, as R&D investment in emerging markets has grown at more than three times the U.S. rate since 1995.\nIf anything, it’s more likely that earnings growth in emerging markets will outpace the U.S. in the years ahead. Developing economies are growing faster than the U.S., a tailwind for their companies, particularly as they grab market share in their countries from American companies. Also, given that recent earnings growth has been unusually high in the U.S. and strangely low in emerging markets, the roles may reverse for a while, bringing earnings growth between them closer to parity.\nThe valuation gap between emerging markets and the U.S. could also narrow. The U.S. is rightly perceived as the safer place to invest, so it makes sense that investors are willing to pay more for U.S. companies. But how much more? The difference in P/E ratio based on forward earnings has averaged 4.7 times since 2005, the longest period for which numbers are available, and has rarely been as wide as it is today. If the gap were to close, it would be another boost for emerging markets relative to the U.S.\nAll of that may explain why theconsensus among big money managersis that emerging markets will deliver higher returns than the U.S. in coming years. Value stocks in emerging markets may perform even better. With a price tag of just 9 times forward earnings, they could credibly be called the most despised stocks on the planet.\nContrarian investors have taken note. Boston based money manager GMOestimatesthat emerging-market value stocks will return 3.2% a year after inflation over the next seven years, compared with a negative 8.2% a year for U.S. stocks. Rob Arnott, founder of index provider Research Affiliates, hassaidthat half of his liquid investments are invested in value stocks from developing countries.\nIt’s worth noting that the last time emerging market stocks performed this badly relative to the U.S., they went on to beat the S&P 500 by 14 percentage points a year from 2000 to 2007, and value stocks won by 15 percentage points a year. They did it by paying a higher dividend yield than U.S. stocks, generating nearly four times the earnings growth as U.S. companies and expanding their valuations while that of the S&P 500 was cut by more than a third.\nI’m not suggesting investors replace their U.S. stocks with ones in emerging markets. But developing countries now account for about 12% of the MSCI All Country World Index, a widely followed gauge of the global stock market. Stock portfolios that allocate less than that to emerging markets should ask why — and it won’t be easy to answer.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":836641239,"gmtCreate":1629482299921,"gmtModify":1633684525678,"author":{"id":"4092553499610860","authorId":"4092553499610860","name":"SunnyDayz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/147d9d4c2877cd0437791d52bcd7f026","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092553499610860","idStr":"4092553499610860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks Tiger🤩","listText":"Thanks Tiger🤩","text":"Thanks Tiger🤩","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836641239","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":63,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":882179503,"gmtCreate":1631669978902,"gmtModify":1632806904747,"author":{"id":"4092553499610860","authorId":"4092553499610860","name":"SunnyDayz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/147d9d4c2877cd0437791d52bcd7f026","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092553499610860","authorIdStr":"4092553499610860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmm 🤔&nbsp;","listText":"Hmm 🤔&nbsp;","text":"Hmm 🤔","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/880510561583095441425088557a08d5","width":"1242","height":"1767"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/882179503","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832595006,"gmtCreate":1629649275505,"gmtModify":1633683584249,"author":{"id":"4092553499610860","authorId":"4092553499610860","name":"SunnyDayz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/147d9d4c2877cd0437791d52bcd7f026","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092553499610860","authorIdStr":"4092553499610860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"帮忙点赞👍谢谢","listText":"帮忙点赞👍谢谢","text":"帮忙点赞👍谢谢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832595006","repostId":"1115632642","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":880179853,"gmtCreate":1631027640072,"gmtModify":1632904472916,"author":{"id":"4092553499610860","authorId":"4092553499610860","name":"SunnyDayz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/147d9d4c2877cd0437791d52bcd7f026","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092553499610860","authorIdStr":"4092553499610860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up up n away&nbsp;","listText":"Up up n away&nbsp;","text":"Up up n away","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880179853","repostId":"1139582863","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139582863","pubTimestamp":1631026413,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139582863?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 22:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell? Wait For The Dip First To Buy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139582863","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is facing potential headwinds regarding its App Store take rate, but investors should","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple is facing potential headwinds regarding its App Store take rate, but investors should be reminded that such issues are nothing new for the company.</li>\n <li>Even though iPhone is still the key revenue and profit driver, investors should watch its fast-growing services segment closely.</li>\n <li>Nevertheless, Apple needs to demonstrate that it can grow its services segment quickly moving forward to justify its premium valuation.</li>\n <li>Given its valuation right now, it's hard for us to justify a Buy rating, but we don't encourage readers to bet against the company as well.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)recently celebrated CEO Tim Cook's tenth year in charge since its visionary founder, the late Steve Jobs, stepped down in Aug 2011. Under Tim Cook's stewardship, the iPhone continues to be a key revenue driver since reinventing the smartphone landscape 15 years ago and helped AAPL reached the pinnacle as the world's most valuable company.</p>\n<p>While the media focused their attention on the regulatory concerns regarding its 30% take rate from its App Store, AAPL's investors have largely brushed it aside as they turned their eye to the impending iPhone 13 launch knowing that having to contend with regulators is nothing new, and is largely expected, as they are smart enough to focus on the forest and not the trees.</p>\n<p>In this article, we help our readers to focus on the big picture of Apple's burgeoning services segment, which we think investors don't give enough credit to CEO Tim Cook for, even as the company navigates high expectations with its iPhone 13 sales, 5G ramp and an expected slowdown in revenue and profit growth moving forward.</p>\n<p>We will also present our valuation argument for Apple Inc., from the EBIT and EBITDA perspective, as well as our analysis of AAPL stock's price action to help investors decide whether to add exposure to AAPL now.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Stock YTD Performance</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11254a709c567ca88d28b9b8487819e0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>FAANG YTD performance (as of 2 Sep 21).</i></p>\n<p>AAPL stock's YTD performance has underperformed Invesco QQQ ETF(NASDAQ:QQQ), together with Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)and Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX), as Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)easily outperformed the trio with their fast-growing, highly profitable, and dominant digital advertising duopoly (that we highlighted in a recent The Trade Desk(NASDAQ:TTD)article, appendedhere).</p>\n<p>Theglobal digital advertising marketis expected to continue its stellar expansion as the market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 14.3% from $378B in 2020 to $646B by 2024, while the global smartphone market (by shipment) is only expected to grow by 7.7% YoY in 2021 to 1.38B units, and YoY growth is expected to slow subsequently to 3.8% in 2022 and then to about 2% by 2025 according toIDC forecasts. Therefore we think that the 5G ramp will likely boost sales from Apple's 5G upgrade through 2022 before the going gets tougher moving forward. As a result, AAPL's share price may likely face growth headwinds due to the stock's current valuation, which we will discuss in the subsequent sections.</p>\n<p><b>iPhone is Important, But Apple's Services Segment is Growing Its Clout</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a51d89975f674cdcc4911ec4a9893\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Apple total revenue (by FY and LTM) and revenue forecast mean consensus. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63aa2ec0d4263a3b5ed73478f7241c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Apple revenue by product (By FY). Data source: Company filings</i></p>\n<p>While consistent, Apple's revenue growth from 2016 to 2020 was certainly not spectacular as it grew by a CAGR of just 6.22%, even though 2021 has been a remarkable year as its LTM revenue reached $347B. Readers should also be able to easily glean that the Street is also not optimistic that Apple would be able to continue its stellar 2021 performance moving forward as revenue is expected to increase from $366B in FY21 to $447B by FY25, which represents a CAGR of just about 5.1% over the next 4 years, that's even slower than its FY16 to the FY20 CAGR.</p>\n<p>An important point for investors to note is that iPhone's revenue actually fell in FY19 and FY20, and despite that, the company still managed to eke out an increase in revenue in FY20. Notably, Apple's services segment has been growing remarkably to support the company's revenue growth. Its revenue increased by a CAGR of 20.3% from FY18 to FY20. Its revenue also reached $50.2B based on its collective performance from Q1'21 to Q3'21.</p>\n<p>Therefore, while iPhone continues to be a vital segment for the company as it accounted for 54.2% of the first three quarters' revenue, astute investors have been keeping an eye on the company's fast-growing services segment, which they believe will be the key driver of growth for the company moving forward.</p>\n<p>In fact, we think Roku(NASDAQ:ROKU)might even have found Apple's margins with its hardware segments enviable, as investors in Roku know that the Connected TV (CTV) platform leader uses a low-margin hardware penetration gameplan to attract users onto its platform for the company to leverage their highly effective monetization strategies (we shared this in a recent Roku article, link to the article is appendedhere), that the company was willing to even go into negative margins in Q2 to absorb the costs pressure relating to the semiconductor supply chain issues.</p>\n<p>However, Apple operates with a much higher gross margin for its hardware segments, which has been close to 40% over time, which has not only helped to make a tidy profit off its hardware but has also given the company a huge installed base of Apple devices to monetize through its services segment.</p>\n<p>In our recent article on Digital Turbine(NASDAQ:APPS), we shared that iOS has a global market share of about 26.3%, against an estimated global installed base of 6.2B units in 2021 (link to the article is appendedhere). This means that Apple is expected to have a total iOS installed base of about 1.63B units by the end of this year that the company can leverage, and we think the potential is massive.</p>\n<p>According to Apple's filings, its services segment consists of sales \"from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare®, digital content, and other services. Services net sales also include amortization of the deferred value of Maps, Siri, and free iCloud storage and Apple TV+SM services, which are bundled in the sales price of certain products.\"</p>\n<p>Therefore, it's a segment with huge potential. Currently, the most important sub-segment within services is none other than its lucrative Apps store. Even more amazing is that despite iOS having only a 26% share of the global installed base, Apps store revenue has consistently outperformed Google Play revenue. The same trend is expected to continue as iOS consumers were expected to spend $41.5B in H1'21 compared to $23.4B for Google Play consumers from an earlierstudy in Juneby Sensor Tower. Using a 30% take rate as a basis, the Apps Store was expected to generate about $12.45B in commissions, accounting for 38.1% of H1'21 services revenue of $32.7B. Importantly, this is also a highly profitable segment, ascourt documentson Alphabet showed that its Play store posted an operating margin of 62.5% in 2019 (Google doesn't break out its Play store margins).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74e1421d1674431ff9e387d6ec8d4f62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>App Store profitability estimates analysis. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ, various company filings, Reuters, Alphabet</i></p>\n<p>If we consider Apple's overall LTM operating margin of 28.8%, then we are pretty sure App's store margins are a big deal, even though based on its annual run rate of $25B, it is only expected to account for just 6.8% of FY21 consensus revenue estimates. However, if we look at Apple Inc.'s FY21 EBIT estimates of $108.7B (estimated EBIT margin of 29.7%), the App Store is expected to account for 14.4% of Apple's total EBIT estimates for FY21. It's unequivocally a crucial revenue and profit driver for Apple to protect and sustain, especially since the App Store revenue grew 22.1% YoY in H1'21. Moreover, with Apple's iPhone sales doing extremely well in FY21 so far (iPhone's revenue for Q1-Q3 has already exceeded FY19 and FY20 total iPhone revenue), we think the momentum for App Store is only just getting started.</p>\n<p><b>The App Store is a Key Beneficiary of Mobile Gaming</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f974b56f9fab5f9d406a8a2053249aa6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Mobile gaming content market worldwide. Data source: Capcom; International Development Group</i></p>\n<p>Mobile gaming is expected to grow consistently over the next few years, from $121.1B in 2020 to $169.7B by 2025, representing a CAGR of about 7%. We highlighted in our recent articles on Roblox(NYSE:RBLX)and Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)how mobile gaming's secular growth is not just a COVID-19 phenomenon (link to the articles are appendedhereandhere).</p>\n<p>Therefore, it's clear that the App Store is a key beneficiary of mobile gaming's secular growth, and we can definitely observe in its H1'21 performance as in-game spending increased by 13.5% YoY from $22.9B in H1'20 to $26B in H1'21, which also represented 62.7% of App Store's H1'21 revenue.</p>\n<p>Therefore, we are not surprised that the recent furor over Apple's take rate from the App Store has caused lots of confusion and chatter about whether it will lead to the dismantling of Apple's closely-guarded, highly lucrative revenue stream.</p>\n<p>We think Apple has certainly recognized the need to placate regulators about its supposed \"monopolistic\" behavior by allowing theso-called reader appsto be exempted from its commissions. Still, it is important to note that this does not affect gaming apps and in-app purchases, thus allowing Apple to continue relying on their most lucrative gaming apps to drive revenue growth.</p>\n<p>Despite that, therecent billby the South Korean parliament to disallow app store operators from charging commissions on in-app purchases should be carefully watched, as this may have ramifications around the world if regulators were to follow the signal from South Korea. Nevertheless, we will like to remind our readers not to overreact to such developments but to keep calm and observe. Apple didn't get to become the world's most valuable company without overcoming its fair share of regulatory issues, and we should certainly expect the management to show similar resilience and fortitude as they had in the past.</p>\n<p><b>Advertising is the Trump Card</b></p>\n<p>We highlighted previously in our recent article on Amazon where we discussed why advertising is the most underrated segment for the e-commerce behemoth, as it's the company's fastest-growing segment (link to the article is appendedhere).</p>\n<p>We think likewise for Apple; we encourage investors never to underestimate Apple's ability to monetize its users. We have seen earlier how, despite iOS having just 26% of the global installed base, the App Store revenue easily outsized Google Play's revenue in H1'21. With a global installed base that's 1.6B and growing, there are many monetization opportunities that Apple can certainly leverage.</p>\n<p>For example, in our Digital Turbine articles (the most recent one ishere), we showed how lucrative the content discovery business for APPS is, even though the company mainly worked with the Android OS. Now, the company has a full-stack ad tech platform for its expanded digital media business. Therefore, we think this is a marvelous opportunity for Apple, as the owner of the iOS ecosystem, to expand on its content discovery offerings for its app developers who want to cut through the clutter of apps to appear in front of consumers, which is a $500M business for Digital Turbine's work on the Android OS. Although it's not a big deal for Apple, it shows various opportunities for monetization that the company can expand into.</p>\n<p>In addition, Apple has also been able to capitalize on Google's advertising growth by using Google as the default search engine for iOS. Based onBernstein's estimates, Google paid about $10B to Apple for that in FY20, and thus it is an important revenue driver for the services segment, besides the App Store revenue.</p>\n<p>Importantly, Apple's ad revenue from its own App Store is estimated to account for$3B of FY21's revenue, up from a mere $300M in FY17, a 10x growth in 4 years. We don't find the projections unreasonable if readers refer to our Amazon article. The company grew its ad revenue by a CAGR of 74% from 2017 and 2019 and by 52% YoY even during 2020's pandemic year. The advertising momentum that Amazon has experienced from its e-commerce marketplace is truly phenomenal, which generates 90% of its advertising revenue, which was worth $21.45B in FY20, up from just $4.65B in FY17.</p>\n<p>Therefore we think the advertising potential from the App Store ads is likely to be in the early innings of its growth, and we highly encourage investors to watch this space closely. Even though Bernstein's estimates of about $20B (4.5% of FY25 estimated revenue) worth of ad revenue by FY25 may not be a blockbuster number when we compare it to FY25's estimated revenue of $447B, this is likely going be a highly profitable segment that can garner an operating margin in the range of 35% to 40% (equivalent to about $7b to $8B in operating profits) as we demonstrated in our Amazon article. Against an estimated EBIT of $104.9B by FY25, a 7% potential contribution from advertising that is growing is definitely an important diversification from the troubles brewing over its App Store take rate, as well as a potential slowdown in growth on its hardware segments.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Stock Looks Fairly Valued for Now</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e307e213aa591ed575a94d8d851f02ae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>EBIT multiples valuation comps set. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02c49b9d4862250203a702d7038923cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>EBITDA multiples valuation comps set. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</i></p>\n<p>We think why investors have often found it challenging to understand the valuation for AAPL is because they often compared it to its smartphone peers such as Samsung(OTC:SSNLF)(KRX:A005930) or Xiaomi(OTCPK:XIACY), which trade at much lower valuation multiples (whether EBIT or EBITDA) as compared to AAPL, especially when AAPL is not expected to be growing as fast, moving forward.</p>\n<p>Investors should observe that AAPL is trading as if it's a major player in the digital advertising market like its FAANG peers: Alphabet and Facebook. We think for investors to make sense of Apple's valuation, it really depends on how Apple will be able to monetize its huge installed base and grow its advertising revenue rapidly to convince investors that it's deserving of its premium price, even though it remains a highly profitable business, much more than Xiaomi.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c059c6e6a89d5a187415238276831a5b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>AAPL Street mean target price. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium</i></p>\n<p>We decided to give AAPL the benefit of the doubt and valued the company based on its estimated FY22 trading multiples (EBIT: 20.7x, EBITDA: 18.9x) and derived an implied fair value of around $143.9 based on its EBIT and EBITDA multiples at the midpoint of its fair value range. This suggests that the stock has a potential downside of about 6% (not including the margin of safety) from its last closing price of $153.90. Readers who would like to review our valuation models can refer to themhereandhere.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, based on the Street's mean target price of $164.33, the stock is valued at an FY22 implied EBIT multiple of about 22.1x, which we think looks like a premium valuation that the Street is willing to extend the Cupertino company.</p>\n<p><b>Price Action and Trend Analysis</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06b641ba94ad84041dc4506b96cefb32\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>AAPL stock price action (weekly).</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc9058c67b259dc384c1912b1a5e9074\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>AAPL EV/Fwd EBIT trend.</i></p>\n<p>While we don't find a preferred entry point on AAPL right now, AAPL stock's long-term uptrend is unambivalent no matter how we see it. In addition, investors can easily glean from its EV/Fwd EBIT trend that the stock has never traded cheaply over the last 5 years with a mean EBIT multiple of about 14.6x, even though the market is willing to value AAPL at a much higher valuation now at 22.97x EBIT.</p>\n<p>Therefore, while we are excited about the company's growth prospects around its advertising segment and its App Stores potential given its huge installed base, we are wary of the valuation placed by the market on AAPL right now and encourage investors to wait for a major retracement, before considering adding new exposure to AAPL.</p>\n<p>As a result, we<i>rate AAPL at neutral</i>for now.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell? Wait For The Dip First To Buy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell? Wait For The Dip First To Buy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-07 22:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453887-apple-stock-good-time-buy-sell><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple is facing potential headwinds regarding its App Store take rate, but investors should be reminded that such issues are nothing new for the company.\nEven though iPhone is still the key ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453887-apple-stock-good-time-buy-sell\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453887-apple-stock-good-time-buy-sell","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1139582863","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is facing potential headwinds regarding its App Store take rate, but investors should be reminded that such issues are nothing new for the company.\nEven though iPhone is still the key revenue and profit driver, investors should watch its fast-growing services segment closely.\nNevertheless, Apple needs to demonstrate that it can grow its services segment quickly moving forward to justify its premium valuation.\nGiven its valuation right now, it's hard for us to justify a Buy rating, but we don't encourage readers to bet against the company as well.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nApple(NASDAQ:AAPL)recently celebrated CEO Tim Cook's tenth year in charge since its visionary founder, the late Steve Jobs, stepped down in Aug 2011. Under Tim Cook's stewardship, the iPhone continues to be a key revenue driver since reinventing the smartphone landscape 15 years ago and helped AAPL reached the pinnacle as the world's most valuable company.\nWhile the media focused their attention on the regulatory concerns regarding its 30% take rate from its App Store, AAPL's investors have largely brushed it aside as they turned their eye to the impending iPhone 13 launch knowing that having to contend with regulators is nothing new, and is largely expected, as they are smart enough to focus on the forest and not the trees.\nIn this article, we help our readers to focus on the big picture of Apple's burgeoning services segment, which we think investors don't give enough credit to CEO Tim Cook for, even as the company navigates high expectations with its iPhone 13 sales, 5G ramp and an expected slowdown in revenue and profit growth moving forward.\nWe will also present our valuation argument for Apple Inc., from the EBIT and EBITDA perspective, as well as our analysis of AAPL stock's price action to help investors decide whether to add exposure to AAPL now.\nApple Stock YTD Performance\nFAANG YTD performance (as of 2 Sep 21).\nAAPL stock's YTD performance has underperformed Invesco QQQ ETF(NASDAQ:QQQ), together with Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)and Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX), as Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)easily outperformed the trio with their fast-growing, highly profitable, and dominant digital advertising duopoly (that we highlighted in a recent The Trade Desk(NASDAQ:TTD)article, appendedhere).\nTheglobal digital advertising marketis expected to continue its stellar expansion as the market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 14.3% from $378B in 2020 to $646B by 2024, while the global smartphone market (by shipment) is only expected to grow by 7.7% YoY in 2021 to 1.38B units, and YoY growth is expected to slow subsequently to 3.8% in 2022 and then to about 2% by 2025 according toIDC forecasts. Therefore we think that the 5G ramp will likely boost sales from Apple's 5G upgrade through 2022 before the going gets tougher moving forward. As a result, AAPL's share price may likely face growth headwinds due to the stock's current valuation, which we will discuss in the subsequent sections.\niPhone is Important, But Apple's Services Segment is Growing Its Clout\nApple total revenue (by FY and LTM) and revenue forecast mean consensus. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nApple revenue by product (By FY). Data source: Company filings\nWhile consistent, Apple's revenue growth from 2016 to 2020 was certainly not spectacular as it grew by a CAGR of just 6.22%, even though 2021 has been a remarkable year as its LTM revenue reached $347B. Readers should also be able to easily glean that the Street is also not optimistic that Apple would be able to continue its stellar 2021 performance moving forward as revenue is expected to increase from $366B in FY21 to $447B by FY25, which represents a CAGR of just about 5.1% over the next 4 years, that's even slower than its FY16 to the FY20 CAGR.\nAn important point for investors to note is that iPhone's revenue actually fell in FY19 and FY20, and despite that, the company still managed to eke out an increase in revenue in FY20. Notably, Apple's services segment has been growing remarkably to support the company's revenue growth. Its revenue increased by a CAGR of 20.3% from FY18 to FY20. Its revenue also reached $50.2B based on its collective performance from Q1'21 to Q3'21.\nTherefore, while iPhone continues to be a vital segment for the company as it accounted for 54.2% of the first three quarters' revenue, astute investors have been keeping an eye on the company's fast-growing services segment, which they believe will be the key driver of growth for the company moving forward.\nIn fact, we think Roku(NASDAQ:ROKU)might even have found Apple's margins with its hardware segments enviable, as investors in Roku know that the Connected TV (CTV) platform leader uses a low-margin hardware penetration gameplan to attract users onto its platform for the company to leverage their highly effective monetization strategies (we shared this in a recent Roku article, link to the article is appendedhere), that the company was willing to even go into negative margins in Q2 to absorb the costs pressure relating to the semiconductor supply chain issues.\nHowever, Apple operates with a much higher gross margin for its hardware segments, which has been close to 40% over time, which has not only helped to make a tidy profit off its hardware but has also given the company a huge installed base of Apple devices to monetize through its services segment.\nIn our recent article on Digital Turbine(NASDAQ:APPS), we shared that iOS has a global market share of about 26.3%, against an estimated global installed base of 6.2B units in 2021 (link to the article is appendedhere). This means that Apple is expected to have a total iOS installed base of about 1.63B units by the end of this year that the company can leverage, and we think the potential is massive.\nAccording to Apple's filings, its services segment consists of sales \"from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare®, digital content, and other services. Services net sales also include amortization of the deferred value of Maps, Siri, and free iCloud storage and Apple TV+SM services, which are bundled in the sales price of certain products.\"\nTherefore, it's a segment with huge potential. Currently, the most important sub-segment within services is none other than its lucrative Apps store. Even more amazing is that despite iOS having only a 26% share of the global installed base, Apps store revenue has consistently outperformed Google Play revenue. The same trend is expected to continue as iOS consumers were expected to spend $41.5B in H1'21 compared to $23.4B for Google Play consumers from an earlierstudy in Juneby Sensor Tower. Using a 30% take rate as a basis, the Apps Store was expected to generate about $12.45B in commissions, accounting for 38.1% of H1'21 services revenue of $32.7B. Importantly, this is also a highly profitable segment, ascourt documentson Alphabet showed that its Play store posted an operating margin of 62.5% in 2019 (Google doesn't break out its Play store margins).\nApp Store profitability estimates analysis. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, various company filings, Reuters, Alphabet\nIf we consider Apple's overall LTM operating margin of 28.8%, then we are pretty sure App's store margins are a big deal, even though based on its annual run rate of $25B, it is only expected to account for just 6.8% of FY21 consensus revenue estimates. However, if we look at Apple Inc.'s FY21 EBIT estimates of $108.7B (estimated EBIT margin of 29.7%), the App Store is expected to account for 14.4% of Apple's total EBIT estimates for FY21. It's unequivocally a crucial revenue and profit driver for Apple to protect and sustain, especially since the App Store revenue grew 22.1% YoY in H1'21. Moreover, with Apple's iPhone sales doing extremely well in FY21 so far (iPhone's revenue for Q1-Q3 has already exceeded FY19 and FY20 total iPhone revenue), we think the momentum for App Store is only just getting started.\nThe App Store is a Key Beneficiary of Mobile Gaming\nMobile gaming content market worldwide. Data source: Capcom; International Development Group\nMobile gaming is expected to grow consistently over the next few years, from $121.1B in 2020 to $169.7B by 2025, representing a CAGR of about 7%. We highlighted in our recent articles on Roblox(NYSE:RBLX)and Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)how mobile gaming's secular growth is not just a COVID-19 phenomenon (link to the articles are appendedhereandhere).\nTherefore, it's clear that the App Store is a key beneficiary of mobile gaming's secular growth, and we can definitely observe in its H1'21 performance as in-game spending increased by 13.5% YoY from $22.9B in H1'20 to $26B in H1'21, which also represented 62.7% of App Store's H1'21 revenue.\nTherefore, we are not surprised that the recent furor over Apple's take rate from the App Store has caused lots of confusion and chatter about whether it will lead to the dismantling of Apple's closely-guarded, highly lucrative revenue stream.\nWe think Apple has certainly recognized the need to placate regulators about its supposed \"monopolistic\" behavior by allowing theso-called reader appsto be exempted from its commissions. Still, it is important to note that this does not affect gaming apps and in-app purchases, thus allowing Apple to continue relying on their most lucrative gaming apps to drive revenue growth.\nDespite that, therecent billby the South Korean parliament to disallow app store operators from charging commissions on in-app purchases should be carefully watched, as this may have ramifications around the world if regulators were to follow the signal from South Korea. Nevertheless, we will like to remind our readers not to overreact to such developments but to keep calm and observe. Apple didn't get to become the world's most valuable company without overcoming its fair share of regulatory issues, and we should certainly expect the management to show similar resilience and fortitude as they had in the past.\nAdvertising is the Trump Card\nWe highlighted previously in our recent article on Amazon where we discussed why advertising is the most underrated segment for the e-commerce behemoth, as it's the company's fastest-growing segment (link to the article is appendedhere).\nWe think likewise for Apple; we encourage investors never to underestimate Apple's ability to monetize its users. We have seen earlier how, despite iOS having just 26% of the global installed base, the App Store revenue easily outsized Google Play's revenue in H1'21. With a global installed base that's 1.6B and growing, there are many monetization opportunities that Apple can certainly leverage.\nFor example, in our Digital Turbine articles (the most recent one ishere), we showed how lucrative the content discovery business for APPS is, even though the company mainly worked with the Android OS. Now, the company has a full-stack ad tech platform for its expanded digital media business. Therefore, we think this is a marvelous opportunity for Apple, as the owner of the iOS ecosystem, to expand on its content discovery offerings for its app developers who want to cut through the clutter of apps to appear in front of consumers, which is a $500M business for Digital Turbine's work on the Android OS. Although it's not a big deal for Apple, it shows various opportunities for monetization that the company can expand into.\nIn addition, Apple has also been able to capitalize on Google's advertising growth by using Google as the default search engine for iOS. Based onBernstein's estimates, Google paid about $10B to Apple for that in FY20, and thus it is an important revenue driver for the services segment, besides the App Store revenue.\nImportantly, Apple's ad revenue from its own App Store is estimated to account for$3B of FY21's revenue, up from a mere $300M in FY17, a 10x growth in 4 years. We don't find the projections unreasonable if readers refer to our Amazon article. The company grew its ad revenue by a CAGR of 74% from 2017 and 2019 and by 52% YoY even during 2020's pandemic year. The advertising momentum that Amazon has experienced from its e-commerce marketplace is truly phenomenal, which generates 90% of its advertising revenue, which was worth $21.45B in FY20, up from just $4.65B in FY17.\nTherefore we think the advertising potential from the App Store ads is likely to be in the early innings of its growth, and we highly encourage investors to watch this space closely. Even though Bernstein's estimates of about $20B (4.5% of FY25 estimated revenue) worth of ad revenue by FY25 may not be a blockbuster number when we compare it to FY25's estimated revenue of $447B, this is likely going be a highly profitable segment that can garner an operating margin in the range of 35% to 40% (equivalent to about $7b to $8B in operating profits) as we demonstrated in our Amazon article. Against an estimated EBIT of $104.9B by FY25, a 7% potential contribution from advertising that is growing is definitely an important diversification from the troubles brewing over its App Store take rate, as well as a potential slowdown in growth on its hardware segments.\nApple Stock Looks Fairly Valued for Now\nEBIT multiples valuation comps set. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEBITDA multiples valuation comps set. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe think why investors have often found it challenging to understand the valuation for AAPL is because they often compared it to its smartphone peers such as Samsung(OTC:SSNLF)(KRX:A005930) or Xiaomi(OTCPK:XIACY), which trade at much lower valuation multiples (whether EBIT or EBITDA) as compared to AAPL, especially when AAPL is not expected to be growing as fast, moving forward.\nInvestors should observe that AAPL is trading as if it's a major player in the digital advertising market like its FAANG peers: Alphabet and Facebook. We think for investors to make sense of Apple's valuation, it really depends on how Apple will be able to monetize its huge installed base and grow its advertising revenue rapidly to convince investors that it's deserving of its premium price, even though it remains a highly profitable business, much more than Xiaomi.\nAAPL Street mean target price. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium\nWe decided to give AAPL the benefit of the doubt and valued the company based on its estimated FY22 trading multiples (EBIT: 20.7x, EBITDA: 18.9x) and derived an implied fair value of around $143.9 based on its EBIT and EBITDA multiples at the midpoint of its fair value range. This suggests that the stock has a potential downside of about 6% (not including the margin of safety) from its last closing price of $153.90. Readers who would like to review our valuation models can refer to themhereandhere.\nMeanwhile, based on the Street's mean target price of $164.33, the stock is valued at an FY22 implied EBIT multiple of about 22.1x, which we think looks like a premium valuation that the Street is willing to extend the Cupertino company.\nPrice Action and Trend Analysis\nAAPL stock price action (weekly).\nAAPL EV/Fwd EBIT trend.\nWhile we don't find a preferred entry point on AAPL right now, AAPL stock's long-term uptrend is unambivalent no matter how we see it. In addition, investors can easily glean from its EV/Fwd EBIT trend that the stock has never traded cheaply over the last 5 years with a mean EBIT multiple of about 14.6x, even though the market is willing to value AAPL at a much higher valuation now at 22.97x EBIT.\nTherefore, while we are excited about the company's growth prospects around its advertising segment and its App Stores potential given its huge installed base, we are wary of the valuation placed by the market on AAPL right now and encourage investors to wait for a major retracement, before considering adding new exposure to AAPL.\nAs a result, werate AAPL at neutralfor 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