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yonnechua
2021-12-31
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@鉴投虎:2021年投资大复盘
yonnechua
2021-08-24
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@孟浩:20倍PE的腾讯便宜吗？买不买？
yonnechua
2021-08-24
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There's a market conundrum developing that casts a shadow over risk taking
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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先来说说市场上看多的观点 看好腾讯的观点这一点主要体现在回购上，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3440721572920950\">@小虎消息</a> 在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/836114099\" target=\"_blank\">《自己人来了！腾讯再次开启回购，历史从未失手！》</a>一文中有提到，腾讯公司从8月19日开始开启了进入移动互联网时代以后的第四次回购。向前看，腾讯上市以来的每一次回购，都成为了日后相谈甚欢的“黄金买点”。每次腾讯在连续回购之后，股价均能在1个月内企稳，并继续向上创下新高。除了回购之外，大家看好腾讯的观点还集中在估值方面，不管是市盈率PE还是市销率，市净率都接近或低于2018年，当时国家很长时间不发游戏版号，要知道游戏行业只有取得游戏版号，才可以上线收费运营，大家一度以为腾讯的游戏业务要挂了，从目前的市场情况来说，与2018年还是无法比的，目前来看市场反应过度，腾讯估值偏低。 我的一点拙见 其实在探讨估值的时候，我们可以参考历史平均水平，但却不能依赖这些指标，因为市场是动态的，股票的基本面也在时刻变化，就以市盈率指标来看，市盈率 = 当前股票价格/每股收益=公司市值/公司净利润。 我们现在得出来的市盈率中的\"E\"(公司净利润)常常用的是近期的净利润表现，或者是我们根据现在的净利润表现预估的未来净利表现，而当政策或者市场形势发生变化，导致盈利减少时，并没有体现在这个指标，从一定程度上这种指标具有滞后性。常常会表现为明明很便宜了，但没想到他会更便宜。 如果你觉得20倍PE的腾讯很便宜，不如你再看看阿里的PE多少？你再看看新东方的PE多少？耳边仍然回旋着凯恩斯的那句诘语：","listText":"最近看到好几篇写腾讯估值合理，适合抄底的文章，于是也看了一下腾讯的近况，这篇文章想跟大家理性探讨一下腾讯的投资价值。 先来说说市场上看多的观点 看好腾讯的观点这一点主要体现在回购上，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3440721572920950\">@小虎消息</a> 在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/836114099\" target=\"_blank\">《自己人来了！腾讯再次开启回购，历史从未失手！》</a>一文中有提到，腾讯公司从8月19日开始开启了进入移动互联网时代以后的第四次回购。向前看，腾讯上市以来的每一次回购，都成为了日后相谈甚欢的“黄金买点”。每次腾讯在连续回购之后，股价均能在1个月内企稳，并继续向上创下新高。除了回购之外，大家看好腾讯的观点还集中在估值方面，不管是市盈率PE还是市销率，市净率都接近或低于2018年，当时国家很长时间不发游戏版号，要知道游戏行业只有取得游戏版号，才可以上线收费运营，大家一度以为腾讯的游戏业务要挂了，从目前的市场情况来说，与2018年还是无法比的，目前来看市场反应过度，腾讯估值偏低。 我的一点拙见 其实在探讨估值的时候，我们可以参考历史平均水平，但却不能依赖这些指标，因为市场是动态的，股票的基本面也在时刻变化，就以市盈率指标来看，市盈率 = 当前股票价格/每股收益=公司市值/公司净利润。 我们现在得出来的市盈率中的\"E\"(公司净利润)常常用的是近期的净利润表现，或者是我们根据现在的净利润表现预估的未来净利表现，而当政策或者市场形势发生变化，导致盈利减少时，并没有体现在这个指标，从一定程度上这种指标具有滞后性。常常会表现为明明很便宜了，但没想到他会更便宜。 如果你觉得20倍PE的腾讯很便宜，不如你再看看阿里的PE多少？你再看看新东方的PE多少？耳边仍然回旋着凯恩斯的那句诘语：","text":"最近看到好几篇写腾讯估值合理，适合抄底的文章，于是也看了一下腾讯的近况，这篇文章想跟大家理性探讨一下腾讯的投资价值。 先来说说市场上看多的观点 看好腾讯的观点这一点主要体现在回购上，@小虎消息 在《自己人来了！腾讯再次开启回购，历史从未失手！》一文中有提到，腾讯公司从8月19日开始开启了进入移动互联网时代以后的第四次回购。向前看，腾讯上市以来的每一次回购，都成为了日后相谈甚欢的“黄金买点”。每次腾讯在连续回购之后，股价均能在1个月内企稳，并继续向上创下新高。除了回购之外，大家看好腾讯的观点还集中在估值方面，不管是市盈率PE还是市销率，市净率都接近或低于2018年，当时国家很长时间不发游戏版号，要知道游戏行业只有取得游戏版号，才可以上线收费运营，大家一度以为腾讯的游戏业务要挂了，从目前的市场情况来说，与2018年还是无法比的，目前来看市场反应过度，腾讯估值偏低。 我的一点拙见 其实在探讨估值的时候，我们可以参考历史平均水平，但却不能依赖这些指标，因为市场是动态的，股票的基本面也在时刻变化，就以市盈率指标来看，市盈率 = 当前股票价格/每股收益=公司市值/公司净利润。 我们现在得出来的市盈率中的\"E\"(公司净利润)常常用的是近期的净利润表现，或者是我们根据现在的净利润表现预估的未来净利表现，而当政策或者市场形势发生变化，导致盈利减少时，并没有体现在这个指标，从一定程度上这种指标具有滞后性。常常会表现为明明很便宜了，但没想到他会更便宜。 如果你觉得20倍PE的腾讯很便宜，不如你再看看阿里的PE多少？你再看看新东方的PE多少？耳边仍然回旋着凯恩斯的那句诘语：","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d1ceab5ed21b0a37efc28ece612854a","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3783cbd9c81658354292e9079aa7f86b","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6b833e2562b2296c4da409b735f3c3d","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835282607","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834293066,"gmtCreate":1629804309255,"gmtModify":1633682340566,"author":{"id":"4091542321294860","authorId":"4091542321294860","name":"yonnechua","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/500ed0c0a43d0664eac5b23d91b3e719","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091542321294860","idStr":"4091542321294860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834293066","repostId":"2161088789","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2161088789","pubTimestamp":1629803445,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2161088789?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-24 19:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"There's a market conundrum developing that casts a shadow over risk taking","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2161088789","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The market optimism switch has been turned back on, judging by the performance in markets on Monday ","content":"<p>The market optimism switch has been turned back on, judging by the performance in markets on Monday -- where the S&P 500 ended at its second-highest level ever -- and the early moves on Tuesday.</p>\n<p>But the technical outlook across multiple markets isn't conducive for risky assets, according to Paul Ciana, the chief global fixed income, currencies and commodities technical strategist at Bank of America.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9f01a1f0e0b6743ce3810783541dc8d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>The ratio of the U.S. treasury bond future vs. Russell 2000 index reached a new all-time low in March, and has since turned higher. When this ratio has turned up from such low levels before, it has preceded a period when the bond market outperformed the Russell 2000, he says.</p>\n<p>Bonds also have turned up vs. copper and oil.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df16bd6d903f67be495727e1b0b4b7e1\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"642\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Moreover, the charts of the U.S. dollar suggest the greenback is positioned to outperform bonds, the Russell 2000, copper and oil. The last time the dollar \"double-bottomed\" vs. the Russell 2000, it outperformed in 2018 and 2014.</p>\n<p>\"This cross-asset conundrum casts a shadow over risk taking in the second half of 2021,\" he says.</p>\n<p>Technical analysis by its very definition excludes fundamental analysis, but a world where bonds and the dollar rally would be consistent with a global economy struggling to maintain its momentum. Recent economic data have disappointed analysts, including Monday's report showing a drop in the U.S. composite purchasing managers index to an eight-month low.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>There's a market conundrum developing that casts a shadow over risk taking</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThere's a market conundrum developing that casts a shadow over risk taking\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-24 19:10 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/theres-a-market-conundrum-developing-that-casts-a-shadow-over-risk-taking-bank-of-america-technical-analyst-says-11629802619?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The market optimism switch has been turned back on, judging by the performance in markets on Monday -- where the S&P 500 ended at its second-highest level ever -- and the early moves on Tuesday.\nBut ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/theres-a-market-conundrum-developing-that-casts-a-shadow-over-risk-taking-bank-of-america-technical-analyst-says-11629802619?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/theres-a-market-conundrum-developing-that-casts-a-shadow-over-risk-taking-bank-of-america-technical-analyst-says-11629802619?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2161088789","content_text":"The market optimism switch has been turned back on, judging by the performance in markets on Monday -- where the S&P 500 ended at its second-highest level ever -- and the early moves on Tuesday.\nBut the technical outlook across multiple markets isn't conducive for risky assets, according to Paul Ciana, the chief global fixed income, currencies and commodities technical strategist at Bank of America.\n\nThe ratio of the U.S. treasury bond future vs. Russell 2000 index reached a new all-time low in March, and has since turned higher. When this ratio has turned up from such low levels before, it has preceded a period when the bond market outperformed the Russell 2000, he says.\nBonds also have turned up vs. copper and oil.\n\nMoreover, the charts of the U.S. dollar suggest the greenback is positioned to outperform bonds, the Russell 2000, copper and oil. The last time the dollar \"double-bottomed\" vs. the Russell 2000, it outperformed in 2018 and 2014.\n\"This cross-asset conundrum casts a shadow over risk taking in the second half of 2021,\" he says.\nTechnical analysis by its very definition excludes fundamental analysis, but a world where bonds and the dollar rally would be consistent with a global economy struggling to maintain its momentum. Recent economic data have disappointed analysts, including Monday's report showing a drop in the U.S. composite purchasing managers index to an eight-month low.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":224,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":834293066,"gmtCreate":1629804309255,"gmtModify":1633682340566,"author":{"id":"4091542321294860","authorId":"4091542321294860","name":"yonnechua","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/500ed0c0a43d0664eac5b23d91b3e719","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091542321294860","idStr":"4091542321294860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834293066","repostId":"2161088789","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2161088789","pubTimestamp":1629803445,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2161088789?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-24 19:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"There's a market conundrum developing that casts a shadow over risk taking","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2161088789","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The market optimism switch has been turned back on, judging by the performance in markets on Monday ","content":"<p>The market optimism switch has been turned back on, judging by the performance in markets on Monday -- where the S&P 500 ended at its second-highest level ever -- and the early moves on Tuesday.</p>\n<p>But the technical outlook across multiple markets isn't conducive for risky assets, according to Paul Ciana, the chief global fixed income, currencies and commodities technical strategist at Bank of America.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9f01a1f0e0b6743ce3810783541dc8d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>The ratio of the U.S. treasury bond future vs. Russell 2000 index reached a new all-time low in March, and has since turned higher. When this ratio has turned up from such low levels before, it has preceded a period when the bond market outperformed the Russell 2000, he says.</p>\n<p>Bonds also have turned up vs. copper and oil.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df16bd6d903f67be495727e1b0b4b7e1\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"642\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Moreover, the charts of the U.S. dollar suggest the greenback is positioned to outperform bonds, the Russell 2000, copper and oil. The last time the dollar \"double-bottomed\" vs. the Russell 2000, it outperformed in 2018 and 2014.</p>\n<p>\"This cross-asset conundrum casts a shadow over risk taking in the second half of 2021,\" he says.</p>\n<p>Technical analysis by its very definition excludes fundamental analysis, but a world where bonds and the dollar rally would be consistent with a global economy struggling to maintain its momentum. Recent economic data have disappointed analysts, including Monday's report showing a drop in the U.S. composite purchasing managers index to an eight-month low.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>There's a market conundrum developing that casts a shadow over risk taking</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThere's a market conundrum developing that casts a shadow over risk taking\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-24 19:10 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/theres-a-market-conundrum-developing-that-casts-a-shadow-over-risk-taking-bank-of-america-technical-analyst-says-11629802619?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The market optimism switch has been turned back on, judging by the performance in markets on Monday -- where the S&P 500 ended at its second-highest level ever -- and the early moves on Tuesday.\nBut ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/theres-a-market-conundrum-developing-that-casts-a-shadow-over-risk-taking-bank-of-america-technical-analyst-says-11629802619?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/theres-a-market-conundrum-developing-that-casts-a-shadow-over-risk-taking-bank-of-america-technical-analyst-says-11629802619?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2161088789","content_text":"The market optimism switch has been turned back on, judging by the performance in markets on Monday -- where the S&P 500 ended at its second-highest level ever -- and the early moves on Tuesday.\nBut the technical outlook across multiple markets isn't conducive for risky assets, according to Paul Ciana, the chief global fixed income, currencies and commodities technical strategist at Bank of America.\n\nThe ratio of the U.S. treasury bond future vs. Russell 2000 index reached a new all-time low in March, and has since turned higher. When this ratio has turned up from such low levels before, it has preceded a period when the bond market outperformed the Russell 2000, he says.\nBonds also have turned up vs. copper and oil.\n\nMoreover, the charts of the U.S. dollar suggest the greenback is positioned to outperform bonds, the Russell 2000, copper and oil. The last time the dollar \"double-bottomed\" vs. the Russell 2000, it outperformed in 2018 and 2014.\n\"This cross-asset conundrum casts a shadow over risk taking in the second half of 2021,\" he says.\nTechnical analysis by its very definition excludes fundamental analysis, but a world where bonds and the dollar rally would be consistent with a global economy struggling to maintain its momentum. Recent economic data have disappointed analysts, including Monday's report showing a drop in the U.S. composite purchasing managers index to an eight-month low.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":224,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":692156664,"gmtCreate":1640880884184,"gmtModify":1640883614561,"author":{"id":"4091542321294860","authorId":"4091542321294860","name":"yonnechua","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/500ed0c0a43d0664eac5b23d91b3e719","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091542321294860","idStr":"4091542321294860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692156664","repostId":"696264554","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":696264554,"gmtCreate":1640705729638,"gmtModify":1720700559153,"author":{"id":"3517430212327987","authorId":"3517430212327987","name":"鉴投虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35680208358c33acb50a099201e60b5d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3517430212327987","idStr":"3517430212327987"},"themes":[],"title":"2021年投资大复盘","htmlText":"一、全年收益图（如上），最高收益177%，目前回落至66%2021年收益率二、全年最亮眼的操作（维珍银河），一月不到股价翻番，而且成功逃顶。高光时刻三、在这之后的高峰是过山车（融创中国），可惜没有止盈。过山车四、然后就是全仓18-A创新医药，一路被割。溃败瓦解2021年投资总结：一、2021年账户的主要交易市场偏好：美股偏向高科技、港股偏向18-A医药。因为老虎是横跨多个市场的券商，但是散户在踏错方向后一时间难以察觉，所以操作前尽量慎重而为。二、不要与政策（趋势）作对，政策对地产的打压是显而易见的，但是我好像入坑了2年之久。如果说政策的解读做不到，那么K线的趋势总归是简单的。但是K线是完全滞后的产物，例如（维珍银河）可以说他没有光明的未来，但是在我交易之时，他刚好是第一个上市太空飞行器企业成功载人太空飞行（其实后面的蓝色起源和spaceX比维珍技术更好），利好拉升而已。如果后期蓝色起源和spaceX上市，那么维珍虽然身处巨大的想象力行业，但其自身价值不行也难免边缘化。三、要吃透产业链的逻辑、社会需求关系。例如：（特斯拉）首先他是朝阳即代表未来的产品方向（有颠覆的可能），其次是特斯拉产品过硬供不应求。前车之鉴、后者之师。蔚来作为国内NO 1，股价在极度低迷、低估时 ，理应作为风投仓位进行投资。在一个拥有巨大未来空间的行业里，首先要做的是从人类供需关系从发，而不是从企业本身（因为创新企业的估值本身就很魔幻），如果社会存在供需且大、企业有能力提**品或服务且优，那么这时候的主要矛盾点已经解决。作为投资人可以依据企业现状建立风投仓<小仓位<大仓位。2022年展望：基于对医药巨大空间及18-A创新药药企产业，我决定接下来全面做多港股18-A药企，理由是创新药企具有广阔的成长空间，且经过2021年的板块下跌，挑选一些已经有成品上市的优质企业。另外目前持仓是stne，看多股价","listText":"一、全年收益图（如上），最高收益177%，目前回落至66%2021年收益率二、全年最亮眼的操作（维珍银河），一月不到股价翻番，而且成功逃顶。高光时刻三、在这之后的高峰是过山车（融创中国），可惜没有止盈。过山车四、然后就是全仓18-A创新医药，一路被割。溃败瓦解2021年投资总结：一、2021年账户的主要交易市场偏好：美股偏向高科技、港股偏向18-A医药。因为老虎是横跨多个市场的券商，但是散户在踏错方向后一时间难以察觉，所以操作前尽量慎重而为。二、不要与政策（趋势）作对，政策对地产的打压是显而易见的，但是我好像入坑了2年之久。如果说政策的解读做不到，那么K线的趋势总归是简单的。但是K线是完全滞后的产物，例如（维珍银河）可以说他没有光明的未来，但是在我交易之时，他刚好是第一个上市太空飞行器企业成功载人太空飞行（其实后面的蓝色起源和spaceX比维珍技术更好），利好拉升而已。如果后期蓝色起源和spaceX上市，那么维珍虽然身处巨大的想象力行业，但其自身价值不行也难免边缘化。三、要吃透产业链的逻辑、社会需求关系。例如：（特斯拉）首先他是朝阳即代表未来的产品方向（有颠覆的可能），其次是特斯拉产品过硬供不应求。前车之鉴、后者之师。蔚来作为国内NO 1，股价在极度低迷、低估时 ，理应作为风投仓位进行投资。在一个拥有巨大未来空间的行业里，首先要做的是从人类供需关系从发，而不是从企业本身（因为创新企业的估值本身就很魔幻），如果社会存在供需且大、企业有能力提**品或服务且优，那么这时候的主要矛盾点已经解决。作为投资人可以依据企业现状建立风投仓<小仓位<大仓位。2022年展望：基于对医药巨大空间及18-A创新药药企产业，我决定接下来全面做多港股18-A药企，理由是创新药企具有广阔的成长空间，且经过2021年的板块下跌，挑选一些已经有成品上市的优质企业。另外目前持仓是stne，看多股价","text":"一、全年收益图（如上），最高收益177%，目前回落至66%2021年收益率二、全年最亮眼的操作（维珍银河），一月不到股价翻番，而且成功逃顶。高光时刻三、在这之后的高峰是过山车（融创中国），可惜没有止盈。过山车四、然后就是全仓18-A创新医药，一路被割。溃败瓦解2021年投资总结：一、2021年账户的主要交易市场偏好：美股偏向高科技、港股偏向18-A医药。因为老虎是横跨多个市场的券商，但是散户在踏错方向后一时间难以察觉，所以操作前尽量慎重而为。二、不要与政策（趋势）作对，政策对地产的打压是显而易见的，但是我好像入坑了2年之久。如果说政策的解读做不到，那么K线的趋势总归是简单的。但是K线是完全滞后的产物，例如（维珍银河）可以说他没有光明的未来，但是在我交易之时，他刚好是第一个上市太空飞行器企业成功载人太空飞行（其实后面的蓝色起源和spaceX比维珍技术更好），利好拉升而已。如果后期蓝色起源和spaceX上市，那么维珍虽然身处巨大的想象力行业，但其自身价值不行也难免边缘化。三、要吃透产业链的逻辑、社会需求关系。例如：（特斯拉）首先他是朝阳即代表未来的产品方向（有颠覆的可能），其次是特斯拉产品过硬供不应求。前车之鉴、后者之师。蔚来作为国内NO 1，股价在极度低迷、低估时 ，理应作为风投仓位进行投资。在一个拥有巨大未来空间的行业里，首先要做的是从人类供需关系从发，而不是从企业本身（因为创新企业的估值本身就很魔幻），如果社会存在供需且大、企业有能力提**品或服务且优，那么这时候的主要矛盾点已经解决。作为投资人可以依据企业现状建立风投仓<小仓位<大仓位。2022年展望：基于对医药巨大空间及18-A创新药药企产业，我决定接下来全面做多港股18-A药企，理由是创新药企具有广阔的成长空间，且经过2021年的板块下跌，挑选一些已经有成品上市的优质企业。另外目前持仓是stne，看多股价","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ace373b8d45ed7b341c2215618959810","width":"998","height":"1227"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/723937a1904700e49b83bf8a1e4b3d5e","width":"2400","height":"1080"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214ab44d3168f596003275885f0ae2ae","width":"2400","height":"1080"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696264554","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":834293595,"gmtCreate":1629804356317,"gmtModify":1633682339939,"author":{"id":"4091542321294860","authorId":"4091542321294860","name":"yonnechua","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/500ed0c0a43d0664eac5b23d91b3e719","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091542321294860","idStr":"4091542321294860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834293595","repostId":"835282607","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":835282607,"gmtCreate":1629720803407,"gmtModify":1629724389503,"author":{"id":"58341441844653","authorId":"58341441844653","name":"孟浩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3af5b59c3e4676ee72cb6e0fea0279b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"58341441844653","idStr":"58341441844653"},"themes":[],"title":"20倍PE的腾讯便宜吗？买不买？","htmlText":"最近看到好几篇写腾讯估值合理，适合抄底的文章，于是也看了一下腾讯的近况，这篇文章想跟大家理性探讨一下腾讯的投资价值。 先来说说市场上看多的观点 看好腾讯的观点这一点主要体现在回购上，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3440721572920950\">@小虎消息</a> 在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/836114099\" target=\"_blank\">《自己人来了！腾讯再次开启回购，历史从未失手！》</a>一文中有提到，腾讯公司从8月19日开始开启了进入移动互联网时代以后的第四次回购。向前看，腾讯上市以来的每一次回购，都成为了日后相谈甚欢的“黄金买点”。每次腾讯在连续回购之后，股价均能在1个月内企稳，并继续向上创下新高。除了回购之外，大家看好腾讯的观点还集中在估值方面，不管是市盈率PE还是市销率，市净率都接近或低于2018年，当时国家很长时间不发游戏版号，要知道游戏行业只有取得游戏版号，才可以上线收费运营，大家一度以为腾讯的游戏业务要挂了，从目前的市场情况来说，与2018年还是无法比的，目前来看市场反应过度，腾讯估值偏低。 我的一点拙见 其实在探讨估值的时候，我们可以参考历史平均水平，但却不能依赖这些指标，因为市场是动态的，股票的基本面也在时刻变化，就以市盈率指标来看，市盈率 = 当前股票价格/每股收益=公司市值/公司净利润。 我们现在得出来的市盈率中的\"E\"(公司净利润)常常用的是近期的净利润表现，或者是我们根据现在的净利润表现预估的未来净利表现，而当政策或者市场形势发生变化，导致盈利减少时，并没有体现在这个指标，从一定程度上这种指标具有滞后性。常常会表现为明明很便宜了，但没想到他会更便宜。 如果你觉得20倍PE的腾讯很便宜，不如你再看看阿里的PE多少？你再看看新东方的PE多少？耳边仍然回旋着凯恩斯的那句诘语：","listText":"最近看到好几篇写腾讯估值合理，适合抄底的文章，于是也看了一下腾讯的近况，这篇文章想跟大家理性探讨一下腾讯的投资价值。 先来说说市场上看多的观点 看好腾讯的观点这一点主要体现在回购上，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3440721572920950\">@小虎消息</a> 在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/836114099\" target=\"_blank\">《自己人来了！腾讯再次开启回购，历史从未失手！》</a>一文中有提到，腾讯公司从8月19日开始开启了进入移动互联网时代以后的第四次回购。向前看，腾讯上市以来的每一次回购，都成为了日后相谈甚欢的“黄金买点”。每次腾讯在连续回购之后，股价均能在1个月内企稳，并继续向上创下新高。除了回购之外，大家看好腾讯的观点还集中在估值方面，不管是市盈率PE还是市销率，市净率都接近或低于2018年，当时国家很长时间不发游戏版号，要知道游戏行业只有取得游戏版号，才可以上线收费运营，大家一度以为腾讯的游戏业务要挂了，从目前的市场情况来说，与2018年还是无法比的，目前来看市场反应过度，腾讯估值偏低。 我的一点拙见 其实在探讨估值的时候，我们可以参考历史平均水平，但却不能依赖这些指标，因为市场是动态的，股票的基本面也在时刻变化，就以市盈率指标来看，市盈率 = 当前股票价格/每股收益=公司市值/公司净利润。 我们现在得出来的市盈率中的\"E\"(公司净利润)常常用的是近期的净利润表现，或者是我们根据现在的净利润表现预估的未来净利表现，而当政策或者市场形势发生变化，导致盈利减少时，并没有体现在这个指标，从一定程度上这种指标具有滞后性。常常会表现为明明很便宜了，但没想到他会更便宜。 如果你觉得20倍PE的腾讯很便宜，不如你再看看阿里的PE多少？你再看看新东方的PE多少？耳边仍然回旋着凯恩斯的那句诘语：","text":"最近看到好几篇写腾讯估值合理，适合抄底的文章，于是也看了一下腾讯的近况，这篇文章想跟大家理性探讨一下腾讯的投资价值。 先来说说市场上看多的观点 看好腾讯的观点这一点主要体现在回购上，@小虎消息 在《自己人来了！腾讯再次开启回购，历史从未失手！》一文中有提到，腾讯公司从8月19日开始开启了进入移动互联网时代以后的第四次回购。向前看，腾讯上市以来的每一次回购，都成为了日后相谈甚欢的“黄金买点”。每次腾讯在连续回购之后，股价均能在1个月内企稳，并继续向上创下新高。除了回购之外，大家看好腾讯的观点还集中在估值方面，不管是市盈率PE还是市销率，市净率都接近或低于2018年，当时国家很长时间不发游戏版号，要知道游戏行业只有取得游戏版号，才可以上线收费运营，大家一度以为腾讯的游戏业务要挂了，从目前的市场情况来说，与2018年还是无法比的，目前来看市场反应过度，腾讯估值偏低。 我的一点拙见 其实在探讨估值的时候，我们可以参考历史平均水平，但却不能依赖这些指标，因为市场是动态的，股票的基本面也在时刻变化，就以市盈率指标来看，市盈率 = 当前股票价格/每股收益=公司市值/公司净利润。 我们现在得出来的市盈率中的\"E\"(公司净利润)常常用的是近期的净利润表现，或者是我们根据现在的净利润表现预估的未来净利表现，而当政策或者市场形势发生变化，导致盈利减少时，并没有体现在这个指标，从一定程度上这种指标具有滞后性。常常会表现为明明很便宜了，但没想到他会更便宜。 如果你觉得20倍PE的腾讯很便宜，不如你再看看阿里的PE多少？你再看看新东方的PE多少？耳边仍然回旋着凯恩斯的那句诘语：","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d1ceab5ed21b0a37efc28ece612854a","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3783cbd9c81658354292e9079aa7f86b","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6b833e2562b2296c4da409b735f3c3d","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835282607","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
