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投资是生活的一部分
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LIMSIAWTONG
2021-10-27
$斗鱼(DOYU)$
可以考虑
LIMSIAWTONG
2021-10-27
$Outlook Therapeutics, Inc.(OTLK)$
心态要稳
LIMSIAWTONG
2021-10-27
$RLX科技(RLX)$
跌了
LIMSIAWTONG
2021-10-12
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@Joyce5914:
$Visa(V)$
after PayPal, Square and other online payment company grown up, Visa has affected a lot.
LIMSIAWTONG
2021-10-12
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@许亚鑫:债务危机只是表象,本质的问题决定了美债和黄金的走向
LIMSIAWTONG
2021-10-12
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@MilkTeaBro:
$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$
STI booster is coming, 1% up today.
LIMSIAWTONG
2021-10-12
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@Miaka:
$Alphabet(GOOG)$
do you feel Google is expensive stock to own?
LIMSIAWTONG
2021-10-12
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@程俊Dream:通胀成为了大问题:油价取得重磅突破,美股多头面临关键一周
LIMSIAWTONG
2021-08-02
这个就是靠我们的观察来稳住
美股最惨的“时节”要来了
LIMSIAWTONG
2021-08-01
支持
抱歉,原内容已删除
LIMSIAWTONG
2021-07-31
上半场这样已经很不错了
抱歉,原内容已删除
LIMSIAWTONG
2021-07-31
已经开发就好
抱歉,原内容已删除
LIMSIAWTONG
2021-07-31
看来收割时间差不多了
抱歉,原内容已删除
LIMSIAWTONG
2021-07-31
加油
抱歉,原内容已删除
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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lot.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcbfc010f490e53d4044d86858599c2c","width":"1080","height":"3472"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867344278","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":876,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826609610,"gmtCreate":1634008205930,"gmtModify":1634008205930,"author":{"id":"4090551950961780","authorId":"4090551950961780","name":"LIMSIAWTONG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c81c243d84bad5171a9e253bcc16567","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090551950961780","idStr":"4090551950961780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826609610","repostId":"829429039","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":829429039,"gmtCreate":1633534932846,"gmtModify":1633959819576,"author":{"id":"3532831849818465","authorId":"3532831849818465","name":"许亚鑫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72cbe26a31edf2913e619f4aa762d2d4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532831849818465","idStr":"3532831849818465"},"themes":[],"title":"债务危机只是表象,本质的问题决定了美债和黄金的走向","htmlText":"近期市场担忧美国的债务上限问题只是表面现象,本质上是个啥呢?那俩个字是敏感词,我不能写,因为曾经写过这方面的文章直接被系统和谐了,不过我希望各位今天各位看完这篇文章后,能猜得出来那俩个字是啥。 许导在前文《1005:今夜,黑金是全场最靓的那个仔!》说到: 当然,美股的回升也让市场的风险偏好重新抬头,事实上美国的债务上限问题仍然悬而未决,此事要说起来又得长篇大论... 美国的债务上限问题,可以追溯到第一次世界大战。1917年之前,每次美国政府需要借款时,都要获得国会授权。一战期间,为了提高国家机器的灵活度,国会便把举债的权力下放给**。只不过打仗烧钱的速度实在是太快,为了能够限制政府的胡乱开支,就提出了举债的上限,就好比我们的天花板一样,就是图中的Debt ceiling。 事实上,美国的债务问题由来已久,主要是由于长期的财政赤字造成的。美国历史上大多数时候均出现赤字,最近的一次财政盈余还是在二十多年前的克林顿总统时期。这就导致了债务到期后,不得不发新债以偿还旧债。如果债务上限的问题不解决,就意味着美国财政部不能借新债,就会出现违约。USA立国二百多年,还未出现过债务违约,这也是美元安身立命的信用基础之一,一旦这样的事情发生,那边搞不好就得变成USB。(熟悉黄金交易的投资者朋友们,应该都记得2011年8月金价的暴涨,直接的导火索就是三大评级机构之一的标普下调了美债3A评级) 如上图所示,过去十年期间,美国的债务上限有五次出现突破,每一次国会博弈到最后的结果,便是调高债务上限。历史上最惊心动魄的一次,是2013年奥巴马时代,一度距离美债违约仅有几个小时,最终国会才授权通过债务上限的协议。 回到离我们现在时间节点最近的一次债务上限问题,即2019年。 当时国会通过了一项决议,即暂停债务上限至2021年8月,彼时整体的债务规模大概在22万亿美元左右。后面的剧情各位就很熟悉了,新","listText":"近期市场担忧美国的债务上限问题只是表面现象,本质上是个啥呢?那俩个字是敏感词,我不能写,因为曾经写过这方面的文章直接被系统和谐了,不过我希望各位今天各位看完这篇文章后,能猜得出来那俩个字是啥。 许导在前文《1005:今夜,黑金是全场最靓的那个仔!》说到: 当然,美股的回升也让市场的风险偏好重新抬头,事实上美国的债务上限问题仍然悬而未决,此事要说起来又得长篇大论... 美国的债务上限问题,可以追溯到第一次世界大战。1917年之前,每次美国政府需要借款时,都要获得国会授权。一战期间,为了提高国家机器的灵活度,国会便把举债的权力下放给**。只不过打仗烧钱的速度实在是太快,为了能够限制政府的胡乱开支,就提出了举债的上限,就好比我们的天花板一样,就是图中的Debt ceiling。 事实上,美国的债务问题由来已久,主要是由于长期的财政赤字造成的。美国历史上大多数时候均出现赤字,最近的一次财政盈余还是在二十多年前的克林顿总统时期。这就导致了债务到期后,不得不发新债以偿还旧债。如果债务上限的问题不解决,就意味着美国财政部不能借新债,就会出现违约。USA立国二百多年,还未出现过债务违约,这也是美元安身立命的信用基础之一,一旦这样的事情发生,那边搞不好就得变成USB。(熟悉黄金交易的投资者朋友们,应该都记得2011年8月金价的暴涨,直接的导火索就是三大评级机构之一的标普下调了美债3A评级) 如上图所示,过去十年期间,美国的债务上限有五次出现突破,每一次国会博弈到最后的结果,便是调高债务上限。历史上最惊心动魄的一次,是2013年奥巴马时代,一度距离美债违约仅有几个小时,最终国会才授权通过债务上限的协议。 回到离我们现在时间节点最近的一次债务上限问题,即2019年。 当时国会通过了一项决议,即暂停债务上限至2021年8月,彼时整体的债务规模大概在22万亿美元左右。后面的剧情各位就很熟悉了,新","text":"近期市场担忧美国的债务上限问题只是表面现象,本质上是个啥呢?那俩个字是敏感词,我不能写,因为曾经写过这方面的文章直接被系统和谐了,不过我希望各位今天各位看完这篇文章后,能猜得出来那俩个字是啥。 许导在前文《1005:今夜,黑金是全场最靓的那个仔!》说到: 当然,美股的回升也让市场的风险偏好重新抬头,事实上美国的债务上限问题仍然悬而未决,此事要说起来又得长篇大论... 美国的债务上限问题,可以追溯到第一次世界大战。1917年之前,每次美国政府需要借款时,都要获得国会授权。一战期间,为了提高国家机器的灵活度,国会便把举债的权力下放给**。只不过打仗烧钱的速度实在是太快,为了能够限制政府的胡乱开支,就提出了举债的上限,就好比我们的天花板一样,就是图中的Debt ceiling。 事实上,美国的债务问题由来已久,主要是由于长期的财政赤字造成的。美国历史上大多数时候均出现赤字,最近的一次财政盈余还是在二十多年前的克林顿总统时期。这就导致了债务到期后,不得不发新债以偿还旧债。如果债务上限的问题不解决,就意味着美国财政部不能借新债,就会出现违约。USA立国二百多年,还未出现过债务违约,这也是美元安身立命的信用基础之一,一旦这样的事情发生,那边搞不好就得变成USB。(熟悉黄金交易的投资者朋友们,应该都记得2011年8月金价的暴涨,直接的导火索就是三大评级机构之一的标普下调了美债3A评级) 如上图所示,过去十年期间,美国的债务上限有五次出现突破,每一次国会博弈到最后的结果,便是调高债务上限。历史上最惊心动魄的一次,是2013年奥巴马时代,一度距离美债违约仅有几个小时,最终国会才授权通过债务上限的协议。 回到离我们现在时间节点最近的一次债务上限问题,即2019年。 当时国会通过了一项决议,即暂停债务上限至2021年8月,彼时整体的债务规模大概在22万亿美元左右。后面的剧情各位就很熟悉了,新","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9793283324bdcb1b4f4975d7b2b929d","width":"560","height":"599"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9793283324bdcb1b4f4975d7b2b929d","width":"560","height":"599"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4ad058370063e679435c366ea25308","width":"688","height":"209"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829429039","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":963,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826609904,"gmtCreate":1634008199428,"gmtModify":1634008199428,"author":{"id":"4090551950961780","authorId":"4090551950961780","name":"LIMSIAWTONG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c81c243d84bad5171a9e253bcc16567","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090551950961780","idStr":"4090551950961780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826609904","repostId":"882181924","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":882181924,"gmtCreate":1631667152368,"gmtModify":1631885568303,"author":{"id":"3581820976934736","authorId":"3581820976934736","name":"MilkTeaBro","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f96ac4963a3566e7f4d22e78cc23ef9","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581820976934736","idStr":"3581820976934736"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>STI booster is coming, 1% up today.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>STI booster is coming, 1% up today.","text":"$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$STI booster is coming, 1% up today.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a884703306e8c45db74db0659e8fce0a","width":"1057","height":"1671"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/882181924","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826600771,"gmtCreate":1634008189855,"gmtModify":1634008189855,"author":{"id":"4090551950961780","authorId":"4090551950961780","name":"LIMSIAWTONG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c81c243d84bad5171a9e253bcc16567","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090551950961780","idStr":"4090551950961780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826600771","repostId":"867100845","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":867100845,"gmtCreate":1633222625771,"gmtModify":1633222753918,"author":{"id":"3571829172898870","authorId":"3571829172898870","name":"Miaka","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a12ca8f946949499400ef1b9182e2a97","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571829172898870","idStr":"3571829172898870"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$Alphabet(GOOG)$</a>do you feel Google is expensive stock to own?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$Alphabet(GOOG)$</a>do you feel Google is expensive stock to own?","text":"$Alphabet(GOOG)$do you feel Google is expensive stock to own?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c962d34394d5b2c11d157a740bcbf4","width":"1080","height":"3472"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867100845","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826600453,"gmtCreate":1634008184496,"gmtModify":1634008184496,"author":{"id":"4090551950961780","authorId":"4090551950961780","name":"LIMSIAWTONG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c81c243d84bad5171a9e253bcc16567","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090551950961780","idStr":"4090551950961780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826600453","repostId":"828535728","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":828535728,"gmtCreate":1633922942961,"gmtModify":1634030561249,"author":{"id":"3534312667271286","authorId":"3534312667271286","name":"程俊Dream","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a751a4f333aa358f9ddfe4404800ee2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3534312667271286","idStr":"3534312667271286"},"themes":[],"title":"通胀成为了大问题:油价取得重磅突破,美股多头面临关键一周","htmlText":"上周五公布的非农数据大幅不及预期,但并未引发市场过度的动荡,因此前美联储已经明确淡化就业数据因素。与此同时,油价持续上涨突破关键性压制,通胀压力似乎也被鲍威尔提前预知。可以预见,通胀即将成为短中期引发变局的重要因素,而这是否会和全球关系产生关联,也值得投资者关注。 油价取得突破 通胀成为大问题 密切留意的76/77压制区域在上周被原油多头成功突破并站稳,消息面上并无太多推动因素。OPEC+周一会议维持11月增产40万桶/日的既定计划以及美国现在暂无计划释放战略石油储备的消息都被视为被动利好。 此前文章曾经提及过原油能否突破将决定风险资产的行径路线。上行突破意味着市场的热情将会得到一次最后的释放,随后随着通胀的无法控制引发货币政策加速而出现逆转。 联想到9月FOMC上鲍威尔的表态,有理由怀疑美联储已经意识到通胀是个棘手并且必须认真对待的大问题。这也解释了为什么在TAPER的速率上有提速的预期。基于此,11月启动TAPER并给出较为激进的削减规模将是可能性较大的结果。 回到油价本身,突破的有效性目前来看还是比较可靠的,上周的阳线实体充实。除非本周出现反转型的组合形态,否则应该考虑的就是本轮涨势的高度问题了。第一个目标可以看向90附近,随后则是100-105区域。不管哪个价格,都会带来其他大宗商品和通胀的升温压力。当一个通胀阈值触发之后,市场才会出现趋势性逆转。 此前的买跨选择现在来看还是比单边的猜测见顶回落安全系数更高一些。看跌的期权已经基本等于报废状态,看涨期权建议继续持有2周左右时间,看看是否有机会对90的价格进行测试,85附近保守的可以削减头寸或者做一些对冲。 美股会受到怎么样的影响? 大体上,在油价见顶回落之前,美股还将保持其原先的慢牛格局。本周对于美股多头来说是一个比较重要的时间节点,回到4450上方的话将明确阶段性的调整结束并重试涨势。反之,市场则有可能继续三周左右","listText":"上周五公布的非农数据大幅不及预期,但并未引发市场过度的动荡,因此前美联储已经明确淡化就业数据因素。与此同时,油价持续上涨突破关键性压制,通胀压力似乎也被鲍威尔提前预知。可以预见,通胀即将成为短中期引发变局的重要因素,而这是否会和全球关系产生关联,也值得投资者关注。 油价取得突破 通胀成为大问题 密切留意的76/77压制区域在上周被原油多头成功突破并站稳,消息面上并无太多推动因素。OPEC+周一会议维持11月增产40万桶/日的既定计划以及美国现在暂无计划释放战略石油储备的消息都被视为被动利好。 此前文章曾经提及过原油能否突破将决定风险资产的行径路线。上行突破意味着市场的热情将会得到一次最后的释放,随后随着通胀的无法控制引发货币政策加速而出现逆转。 联想到9月FOMC上鲍威尔的表态,有理由怀疑美联储已经意识到通胀是个棘手并且必须认真对待的大问题。这也解释了为什么在TAPER的速率上有提速的预期。基于此,11月启动TAPER并给出较为激进的削减规模将是可能性较大的结果。 回到油价本身,突破的有效性目前来看还是比较可靠的,上周的阳线实体充实。除非本周出现反转型的组合形态,否则应该考虑的就是本轮涨势的高度问题了。第一个目标可以看向90附近,随后则是100-105区域。不管哪个价格,都会带来其他大宗商品和通胀的升温压力。当一个通胀阈值触发之后,市场才会出现趋势性逆转。 此前的买跨选择现在来看还是比单边的猜测见顶回落安全系数更高一些。看跌的期权已经基本等于报废状态,看涨期权建议继续持有2周左右时间,看看是否有机会对90的价格进行测试,85附近保守的可以削减头寸或者做一些对冲。 美股会受到怎么样的影响? 大体上,在油价见顶回落之前,美股还将保持其原先的慢牛格局。本周对于美股多头来说是一个比较重要的时间节点,回到4450上方的话将明确阶段性的调整结束并重试涨势。反之,市场则有可能继续三周左右","text":"上周五公布的非农数据大幅不及预期,但并未引发市场过度的动荡,因此前美联储已经明确淡化就业数据因素。与此同时,油价持续上涨突破关键性压制,通胀压力似乎也被鲍威尔提前预知。可以预见,通胀即将成为短中期引发变局的重要因素,而这是否会和全球关系产生关联,也值得投资者关注。 油价取得突破 通胀成为大问题 密切留意的76/77压制区域在上周被原油多头成功突破并站稳,消息面上并无太多推动因素。OPEC+周一会议维持11月增产40万桶/日的既定计划以及美国现在暂无计划释放战略石油储备的消息都被视为被动利好。 此前文章曾经提及过原油能否突破将决定风险资产的行径路线。上行突破意味着市场的热情将会得到一次最后的释放,随后随着通胀的无法控制引发货币政策加速而出现逆转。 联想到9月FOMC上鲍威尔的表态,有理由怀疑美联储已经意识到通胀是个棘手并且必须认真对待的大问题。这也解释了为什么在TAPER的速率上有提速的预期。基于此,11月启动TAPER并给出较为激进的削减规模将是可能性较大的结果。 回到油价本身,突破的有效性目前来看还是比较可靠的,上周的阳线实体充实。除非本周出现反转型的组合形态,否则应该考虑的就是本轮涨势的高度问题了。第一个目标可以看向90附近,随后则是100-105区域。不管哪个价格,都会带来其他大宗商品和通胀的升温压力。当一个通胀阈值触发之后,市场才会出现趋势性逆转。 此前的买跨选择现在来看还是比单边的猜测见顶回落安全系数更高一些。看跌的期权已经基本等于报废状态,看涨期权建议继续持有2周左右时间,看看是否有机会对90的价格进行测试,85附近保守的可以削减头寸或者做一些对冲。 美股会受到怎么样的影响? 大体上,在油价见顶回落之前,美股还将保持其原先的慢牛格局。本周对于美股多头来说是一个比较重要的时间节点,回到4450上方的话将明确阶段性的调整结束并重试涨势。反之,市场则有可能继续三周左右","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de38267b4ebe267e27fea685234d1947","width":"1055","height":"563"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828535728","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":899,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":805346084,"gmtCreate":1627862968548,"gmtModify":1633755907202,"author":{"id":"4090551950961780","authorId":"4090551950961780","name":"LIMSIAWTONG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c81c243d84bad5171a9e253bcc16567","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090551950961780","idStr":"4090551950961780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这个就是靠我们的观察来稳住","listText":"这个就是靠我们的观察来稳住","text":"这个就是靠我们的观察来稳住","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805346084","repostId":"2155894163","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2155894163","pubTimestamp":1627778319,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2155894163?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-01 08:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股最惨的“时节”要来了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2155894163","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在经历了7月1日到7月15日历史数据统计的“史上最强劲两周”后,美股即将迎来统计数据上的最糟糕月份——八月。\n\n正如高盛信贷策略师Scott Rubner所统计的那样,整个八月份市场趋势都在走低,这是","content":"<p>在经历了7月1日到7月15日历史数据统计的“史上最强劲两周”后,美股即将迎来统计数据上的最糟糕月份——八月。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4aa20635c056c2425c903c7bfa9919\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>正如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>信贷策略师Scott Rubner所统计的那样,整个八月份市场趋势都在走低,这是一年中最糟糕的时节之一,并在杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议上达到高潮和拐点。目前,人们预计鲍威尔将在这次会议上宣布taper。</p>\n<p>具体来看,自1950年以来,标准普尔500指数在72年里有19次在上半年上涨超过10%,但在强劲的上半年之后,8月份的回报率中值通常会下降51个基点。</p>\n<p>Rubner还指出,今年上半年没有出现戏剧性的大跌,标准普尔500指数连续第6个月上涨,创下2018年以来最长的上涨时间。然而,与上述观察相呼应这并不是什么好事,毕竟自2010年8月以来,此前的11个8月中有6次下跌。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca60b07fac07ccd13faa80796c2df34d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>尽管如此,Rubner指出,即便不回顾历史,今年的状况也能得出同样的结论,美联储的资产负债表就应该能解释得很清楚清楚。随着美联储政策的逐步推出,市场将更加缺乏流动性,因此8月的下跌效应会加剧,任何负面消息都会被放大。</p>\n<p>此外,Rubner还回顾了此前的两次“8月危机”,这两次危机分别发生在2011年和2015年:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>2011年,恰逢美国在债务上限问题上的争论不休。尽管这个问题在8月初得到了解决,但标准普尔随后将美国信用评级从AAA下调至AA+。与此同时,对欧洲主权债务危机的担忧持续发酵,最终导致8月股市大跌。</li>\n <li>2015年,新兴市场出现了动荡,进而蔓延到包括美国和欧洲在内的其他地区。</li>\n</ul>\n<p>对于接下来的8月,Rubner表示,人们关注的焦点将集中于杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议,以及宏观变量(尤其是通胀)的变化。他同时表示,我们需要对市场中的任何意外保持警惕。</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股最惨的“时节”要来了</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股最惨的“时节”要来了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-01 08:38 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3636809><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在经历了7月1日到7月15日历史数据统计的“史上最强劲两周”后,美股即将迎来统计数据上的最糟糕月份——八月。\n\n正如高盛信贷策略师Scott Rubner所统计的那样,整个八月份市场趋势都在走低,这是一年中最糟糕的时节之一,并在杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议上达到高潮和拐点。目前,人们预计鲍威尔将在这次会议上宣布taper。\n具体来看,自1950年以来,标准普尔500指数在72年里有19次在上半年上涨超过...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3636809\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37d43f47ff4637f33c2675f14c1cc937","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3636809","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2155894163","content_text":"在经历了7月1日到7月15日历史数据统计的“史上最强劲两周”后,美股即将迎来统计数据上的最糟糕月份——八月。\n\n正如高盛信贷策略师Scott Rubner所统计的那样,整个八月份市场趋势都在走低,这是一年中最糟糕的时节之一,并在杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议上达到高潮和拐点。目前,人们预计鲍威尔将在这次会议上宣布taper。\n具体来看,自1950年以来,标准普尔500指数在72年里有19次在上半年上涨超过10%,但在强劲的上半年之后,8月份的回报率中值通常会下降51个基点。\nRubner还指出,今年上半年没有出现戏剧性的大跌,标准普尔500指数连续第6个月上涨,创下2018年以来最长的上涨时间。然而,与上述观察相呼应这并不是什么好事,毕竟自2010年8月以来,此前的11个8月中有6次下跌。\n\n尽管如此,Rubner指出,即便不回顾历史,今年的状况也能得出同样的结论,美联储的资产负债表就应该能解释得很清楚清楚。随着美联储政策的逐步推出,市场将更加缺乏流动性,因此8月的下跌效应会加剧,任何负面消息都会被放大。\n此外,Rubner还回顾了此前的两次“8月危机”,这两次危机分别发生在2011年和2015年:\n\n2011年,恰逢美国在债务上限问题上的争论不休。尽管这个问题在8月初得到了解决,但标准普尔随后将美国信用评级从AAA下调至AA+。与此同时,对欧洲主权债务危机的担忧持续发酵,最终导致8月股市大跌。\n2015年,新兴市场出现了动荡,进而蔓延到包括美国和欧洲在内的其他地区。\n\n对于接下来的8月,Rubner表示,人们关注的焦点将集中于杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议,以及宏观变量(尤其是通胀)的变化。他同时表示,我们需要对市场中的任何意外保持警惕。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":769,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":802874844,"gmtCreate":1627772601188,"gmtModify":1633756611092,"author":{"id":"4090551950961780","authorId":"4090551950961780","name":"LIMSIAWTONG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c81c243d84bad5171a9e253bcc16567","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090551950961780","idStr":"4090551950961780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"支持","listText":"支持","text":"支持","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802874844","repostId":"1165085669","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":692,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":802943395,"gmtCreate":1627710796717,"gmtModify":1633756875086,"author":{"id":"4090551950961780","authorId":"4090551950961780","name":"LIMSIAWTONG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c81c243d84bad5171a9e253bcc16567","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090551950961780","idStr":"4090551950961780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"上半场这样已经很不错了","listText":"上半场这样已经很不错了","text":"上半场这样已经很不错了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802943395","repostId":"2155236168","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":802959260,"gmtCreate":1627709679050,"gmtModify":1633756883976,"author":{"id":"4090551950961780","authorId":"4090551950961780","name":"LIMSIAWTONG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c81c243d84bad5171a9e253bcc16567","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090551950961780","idStr":"4090551950961780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"已经开发就好","listText":"已经开发就好","text":"已经开发就好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802959260","repostId":"2155616846","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":802926941,"gmtCreate":1627708865583,"gmtModify":1633756889614,"author":{"id":"4090551950961780","authorId":"4090551950961780","name":"LIMSIAWTONG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c81c243d84bad5171a9e253bcc16567","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090551950961780","idStr":"4090551950961780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看来收割时间差不多了","listText":"看来收割时间差不多了","text":"看来收割时间差不多了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802926941","repostId":"1142769496","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":159,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":802923411,"gmtCreate":1627708551333,"gmtModify":1633756891752,"author":{"id":"4090551950961780","authorId":"4090551950961780","name":"LIMSIAWTONG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c81c243d84bad5171a9e253bcc16567","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090551950961780","idStr":"4090551950961780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"加油","listText":"加油","text":"加油","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802923411","repostId":"2155688721","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":802874844,"gmtCreate":1627772601188,"gmtModify":1633756611092,"author":{"id":"4090551950961780","authorId":"4090551950961780","name":"LIMSIAWTONG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c81c243d84bad5171a9e253bcc16567","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090551950961780","authorIdStr":"4090551950961780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"支持","listText":"支持","text":"支持","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"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11:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"百度放不下游戏","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2155688721","media":"镜像娱乐","summary":"百度再一次“杀”回了游戏市场。\n7月28日,百度游戏品牌发布会正式召开,现场对外发布了23款游戏新品。其中包括《Island Crossing》《Call of Mini:Zombies Return","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>再一次“杀”回了游戏市场。</p>\n<p>7月28日,百度游戏品牌发布会正式召开,现场对外发布了23款游戏新品。其中包括《Island Crossing》《Call of Mini:Zombies Return》《Garden》等14款休闲游戏,以及《武庚纪》《梦想<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000997\">新大陆</a>》等9款重度游戏。可以看出,百度游戏未来将着力于休闲+重度游戏两条赛道,尝试跳出以发行为主的模式,转而以发行、自研并重,同时探索国际市场。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03a57d99cd21d4a4e96e39ef0a7df836\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>从战略到产品,百度游戏此举可以视作其重返赛场的一个重要举动。作为一个拥有巨大流量池的互联网巨头,百度做游戏其实一直被业内看好。然而,直到2017年百度剥离游戏业务时,平台也没有找到适合自己的发展模式。</p>\n<p>而今,游戏行业风云变幻,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>分走大块蛋糕,阿里、字节跳动、B站等头部势力加码,海外市场竞争愈演愈烈,游戏行业新势力更是如雨后春笋……选择此时返场的百度游戏,也让当下的竞争环境变得更加复杂。</p>\n<h3><b>流量变现的重头戏</b></h3>\n<p>发布会上,百度游戏总经理徐建将未来的发展方向归纳为两点:一点是做服务,即基于自身流量生态和产品矩阵,为游戏厂商提供发行服务;另一点则在于做产品,或与行业伙伴合作、或自主研发,推出具备竞争力的游戏产品。</p>\n<p>从这两点来看,百度游戏此次返场,步子相对稳健,布局方向都建立在自身优势上。</p>\n<p>其一,游戏一直都是流量变现的重头戏,而百度是一个拥有10亿用户的流量生态,仅在百度APP,月活便超过5.4亿。并且,据官方披露,用户在百度搜索游戏相关内容的日均次数达到1亿次,其中为找游戏的用户占比为25.3%,玩游戏的占比为45.5%,找服务的占比为29.2%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d82ae2c46c176ed12cdee8a4ee00afbb\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>换言之,百度目前仍是网民接触游戏的一个重要入口,生态内每天产生的亿级流量都与游戏相关,这也是百度不可能轻易放掉游戏业务的关键所在。</p>\n<p>其二,围绕百度自身的流量生态,一方面,搜索业务的服务能力,使平台与国内诸多游戏厂商都存在合作关系;另一方面,百度在剥离游戏业务之前,其游戏发行也有过一些高光时刻。2011年时,百度基于贴吧生态搭建“社区化小游戏平台”,涉足游戏分发,3天累计用户便超过7000万。</p>\n<p>从广告到发行,百度在游戏行业的连接能力,使之能够更便捷地找到合作伙伴,为之后的联运、发行等业务打下基础。此次发布会上,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09990\">祖龙娱乐</a>、悠米互娱等都是百度游戏联合开发产品的合作方。徐建还透露,百度游戏也准备构建新的开发者平台,将给出诸多策略扶持和让利。</p>\n<p>其三,尽管百度目前已经与腾讯、阿里拉开了距离,但百度仍是处在第一梯队的互联网巨头,若平台将资本向游戏倾斜,在财力支持下未必没有与其他平台一战的实力。目前,百度游戏已经完成了两个自研团队的搭建,正式进入开发阶段。</p>\n<p>但是,从百度游戏发布的产品来看,休闲游戏仍占据更大比例,而在用户粘性更高的重度游戏中,“代号”产品居多,落地时间并不明朗。这意味着百度在真正形成竞争力之前,还有一段很长的路要走,且这条路并不容易。</p>\n<h3><b>不能“丢”的游戏业务</b></h3>\n<p>百度重拾游戏业务并不让人意外,尤其是在近几年,百度一直都在搜索业务之外,寻找新的收入增长点。</p>\n<p>回到2017年,百度以近12亿的价格出售了百度游戏,这一动作是百度实施“航母计划”的一环。当时,百度通过业务“分拆”,将文学、视频、游戏、音乐、地图、外卖等版块独立运营,业内对此普遍认为,百度在尝试摆脱对搜索业务的依赖。同一时期,百度也进一步发力人工<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>的新方向,尝试向智能科技公司转型。沿着这一发展脉络来看,如今的百度,或许更需要游戏了。</p>\n<p>首先,从其内部发展而言,业务“分拆”的思路并没有帮助百度在多领域建立优势。</p>\n<p>在这之中,百度发展最好的视频业务孵化出<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>,但爱奇艺至今累计亏损已达上百亿,不仅不赚钱,还消耗着巨额运营成本。此外,百度地图市场渗透率虽然较高,但地图业务的变现模式尚不清晰。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edc6630b89c5e58130682294de8830bf\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>而在其他业务方面,文学领域至今仍是阅文一家独大;音乐市场中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>占据更大份额,网易云音乐后来居上;外卖行业中,美团、饿了么两强相争……相比之下,百度并没有形成与之相抗的实力,在业绩贡献上也难以成为未来的新支柱。</p>\n<p>其次,在外部竞争环境上,百度面临的压力越来越大。</p>\n<p>近几年,业内开始频繁地讨论,字节跳动会不会取代百度成为第三大互联网巨头?在这背后,双方之间虽然没有正面冲突,但字节跳动却在一步步蚕食曾属于百度的市场。</p>\n<p>说到底,百度和字节跳动所做的都是信息分发,而后者抓住了移动互联网崛起的契机,并以独特的算法抢占市场,后来基于同样的算法体系入局短视频,并建立自身的广告体系和变现模型。在这一过程中,受到冲击最大的便是百度。也就是说,百度搜索业务所覆盖的市场已经受到威胁,寻找新的业绩增长点正变得越来越迫切。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd74003ddc66f316f5a4afa89fa7e74\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>字节跳动游戏《仙境传说RO:新世代的诞生》,月流水达到1.5亿</p>\n<p>再者,对百度自身的发展而言,人工智能的新定位还没有成规模的变现机会。</p>\n<p>财报数据显示,截至2020年第四季度,百度来自搜索服务与交易服务的收入,在总收入中占比将近80%,而公司来自AI及云服务的收入占比则不足20%。</p>\n<p>在人工智能的业绩创造力形成之前,发力流量变现效率更高的游戏业务,或许是百度更好的选择。且就技术发展对云游戏的赋能来看,提前布局游戏业务,未来也能更高效地与公司的技术实力共振。</p>\n<h3><b>微妙的返场时机</b></h3>\n<p>实际上,尽管百度曾高调出售百度游戏,但从未真正离开过这个市场。</p>\n<p>当初,百度游戏被剥离后更名为多酷游戏,仍然作为百度在游戏业务上唯一的平台级入口,与百度保持紧密的合作关系。同一年,百度APP接入智能小游戏入口;2019年,百度则投资了游戏公司蝴蝶互动;直到今年,百度申请注册“百度游戏”、“百度游戏 MG.BAIDU.COM DU”等商标,并于前不久召开品牌发布会,正式在这一赛道上“重启”。百度似乎一直在等待机会,但选择此时返场,这个时机还是有些微妙。</p>\n<p>从表面上看,当下,游戏市场的竞争越来越激烈。腾讯、网易两大头部势力仍无可撼动,阿里、字节跳动、B站等互联网巨头也开始在这一市场划分势力范围。</p>\n<p>在国内,阿里在游戏领域持续深耕之后,孵化出的《三国志·战略版》《三国志幻想大陆》表现亮眼,双双登上App Store手游收入排行榜TOP10。其中,仅在2020上半年,《三国志·战略版》的总流水便达到37亿。以此为起点,阿里逐渐在游戏领域站稳脚跟;字节跳动近来在游戏市场的步子也越来越大。今年3月,公司以260亿元的高价收购游戏公司沐瞳科技,将东南亚影响力最大的MOBA游戏《无尽对决》收入囊中;此外,B站也通过资本布局,在二次元游戏赛道上持续巩固实力。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2557f4955deb03cc8a5e455e81407a4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>在国外,伴随着<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00799\">IGG</a>、莉莉丝等游戏厂商从海外市场涌现出来,这一市场也成为更多国内头部势力的布局范围,原本的蓝海优势正在激烈的竞争中逐渐消退,新入场者抢占市场份额的难度也在加大。</p>\n<p>然而,在这样的发展环境下,一些新势力还是“冒出头来”。尤其是《原神》的出现,在上线30天内收入便达到2.45亿美元,一度超越《王者荣耀》《和平精英》同期收入,位列全球手游收入榜首位。背后的公司米哈游也随之变得炙手可热。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa4d5c6dc9ad9c4c73abc473abf4cd38\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>这一现象的出现,刺激了头部势力的敏感神经,也加速了巨头“围猎”的脚步。以动作最大的腾讯为例,据镜像娱乐统计,2021年上半年,腾讯参与投资的游戏公司多达49家,平均每4天便投资一家公司。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/643cf0b0e11b9df8d22b62da650634e1\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"2866\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>然而,透过这一现象,其实也反映出,一方面,当下的游戏市场还远未饱和,市场能够容下更多爆款游戏产品;另一方面,激烈的竞争环境,也为当下的游戏市场带来更多变数。在爆款终会被新的爆款替代的行业规律之下,新入局者并非没有机会,或许这才是百度选择此时返场的关键所在。</p>\n<p>但是,机会都是留给有准备的人,百度显然落后太多。发布会现场,百度游戏副总经理王慧也坦言:“重启后的百度团队优势仍不明显,团队一直在思考如何利用百度的资源,走出百度游戏自己的路。”但在变幻莫测的游戏市场之上,留给百度思考的时间已然不多了。</p>","source":"36kr_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>百度放不下游戏</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n百度放不下游戏\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-31 11:13 北京时间 <a href=https://36kr.com/p/1333416961169408><strong>镜像娱乐</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>百度再一次“杀”回了游戏市场。\n7月28日,百度游戏品牌发布会正式召开,现场对外发布了23款游戏新品。其中包括《Island Crossing》《Call of Mini:Zombies Return》《Garden》等14款休闲游戏,以及《武庚纪》《梦想新大陆》等9款重度游戏。可以看出,百度游戏未来将着力于休闲+重度游戏两条赛道,尝试跳出以发行为主的模式,转而以发行、自研并重,同时探索国际市场。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://36kr.com/p/1333416961169408\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d671f82579a0f7a86039a21fe8fc002","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BIDU":"百度"},"source_url":"https://36kr.com/p/1333416961169408","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2155688721","content_text":"百度再一次“杀”回了游戏市场。\n7月28日,百度游戏品牌发布会正式召开,现场对外发布了23款游戏新品。其中包括《Island Crossing》《Call of Mini:Zombies Return》《Garden》等14款休闲游戏,以及《武庚纪》《梦想新大陆》等9款重度游戏。可以看出,百度游戏未来将着力于休闲+重度游戏两条赛道,尝试跳出以发行为主的模式,转而以发行、自研并重,同时探索国际市场。\n\n从战略到产品,百度游戏此举可以视作其重返赛场的一个重要举动。作为一个拥有巨大流量池的互联网巨头,百度做游戏其实一直被业内看好。然而,直到2017年百度剥离游戏业务时,平台也没有找到适合自己的发展模式。\n而今,游戏行业风云变幻,腾讯、网易分走大块蛋糕,阿里、字节跳动、B站等头部势力加码,海外市场竞争愈演愈烈,游戏行业新势力更是如雨后春笋……选择此时返场的百度游戏,也让当下的竞争环境变得更加复杂。\n流量变现的重头戏\n发布会上,百度游戏总经理徐建将未来的发展方向归纳为两点:一点是做服务,即基于自身流量生态和产品矩阵,为游戏厂商提供发行服务;另一点则在于做产品,或与行业伙伴合作、或自主研发,推出具备竞争力的游戏产品。\n从这两点来看,百度游戏此次返场,步子相对稳健,布局方向都建立在自身优势上。\n其一,游戏一直都是流量变现的重头戏,而百度是一个拥有10亿用户的流量生态,仅在百度APP,月活便超过5.4亿。并且,据官方披露,用户在百度搜索游戏相关内容的日均次数达到1亿次,其中为找游戏的用户占比为25.3%,玩游戏的占比为45.5%,找服务的占比为29.2%。\n\n换言之,百度目前仍是网民接触游戏的一个重要入口,生态内每天产生的亿级流量都与游戏相关,这也是百度不可能轻易放掉游戏业务的关键所在。\n其二,围绕百度自身的流量生态,一方面,搜索业务的服务能力,使平台与国内诸多游戏厂商都存在合作关系;另一方面,百度在剥离游戏业务之前,其游戏发行也有过一些高光时刻。2011年时,百度基于贴吧生态搭建“社区化小游戏平台”,涉足游戏分发,3天累计用户便超过7000万。\n从广告到发行,百度在游戏行业的连接能力,使之能够更便捷地找到合作伙伴,为之后的联运、发行等业务打下基础。此次发布会上,祖龙娱乐、悠米互娱等都是百度游戏联合开发产品的合作方。徐建还透露,百度游戏也准备构建新的开发者平台,将给出诸多策略扶持和让利。\n其三,尽管百度目前已经与腾讯、阿里拉开了距离,但百度仍是处在第一梯队的互联网巨头,若平台将资本向游戏倾斜,在财力支持下未必没有与其他平台一战的实力。目前,百度游戏已经完成了两个自研团队的搭建,正式进入开发阶段。\n但是,从百度游戏发布的产品来看,休闲游戏仍占据更大比例,而在用户粘性更高的重度游戏中,“代号”产品居多,落地时间并不明朗。这意味着百度在真正形成竞争力之前,还有一段很长的路要走,且这条路并不容易。\n不能“丢”的游戏业务\n百度重拾游戏业务并不让人意外,尤其是在近几年,百度一直都在搜索业务之外,寻找新的收入增长点。\n回到2017年,百度以近12亿的价格出售了百度游戏,这一动作是百度实施“航母计划”的一环。当时,百度通过业务“分拆”,将文学、视频、游戏、音乐、地图、外卖等版块独立运营,业内对此普遍认为,百度在尝试摆脱对搜索业务的依赖。同一时期,百度也进一步发力人工智能的新方向,尝试向智能科技公司转型。沿着这一发展脉络来看,如今的百度,或许更需要游戏了。\n首先,从其内部发展而言,业务“分拆”的思路并没有帮助百度在多领域建立优势。\n在这之中,百度发展最好的视频业务孵化出爱奇艺,但爱奇艺至今累计亏损已达上百亿,不仅不赚钱,还消耗着巨额运营成本。此外,百度地图市场渗透率虽然较高,但地图业务的变现模式尚不清晰。\n\n而在其他业务方面,文学领域至今仍是阅文一家独大;音乐市场中腾讯音乐占据更大份额,网易云音乐后来居上;外卖行业中,美团、饿了么两强相争……相比之下,百度并没有形成与之相抗的实力,在业绩贡献上也难以成为未来的新支柱。\n其次,在外部竞争环境上,百度面临的压力越来越大。\n近几年,业内开始频繁地讨论,字节跳动会不会取代百度成为第三大互联网巨头?在这背后,双方之间虽然没有正面冲突,但字节跳动却在一步步蚕食曾属于百度的市场。\n说到底,百度和字节跳动所做的都是信息分发,而后者抓住了移动互联网崛起的契机,并以独特的算法抢占市场,后来基于同样的算法体系入局短视频,并建立自身的广告体系和变现模型。在这一过程中,受到冲击最大的便是百度。也就是说,百度搜索业务所覆盖的市场已经受到威胁,寻找新的业绩增长点正变得越来越迫切。\n\n字节跳动游戏《仙境传说RO:新世代的诞生》,月流水达到1.5亿\n再者,对百度自身的发展而言,人工智能的新定位还没有成规模的变现机会。\n财报数据显示,截至2020年第四季度,百度来自搜索服务与交易服务的收入,在总收入中占比将近80%,而公司来自AI及云服务的收入占比则不足20%。\n在人工智能的业绩创造力形成之前,发力流量变现效率更高的游戏业务,或许是百度更好的选择。且就技术发展对云游戏的赋能来看,提前布局游戏业务,未来也能更高效地与公司的技术实力共振。\n微妙的返场时机\n实际上,尽管百度曾高调出售百度游戏,但从未真正离开过这个市场。\n当初,百度游戏被剥离后更名为多酷游戏,仍然作为百度在游戏业务上唯一的平台级入口,与百度保持紧密的合作关系。同一年,百度APP接入智能小游戏入口;2019年,百度则投资了游戏公司蝴蝶互动;直到今年,百度申请注册“百度游戏”、“百度游戏 MG.BAIDU.COM DU”等商标,并于前不久召开品牌发布会,正式在这一赛道上“重启”。百度似乎一直在等待机会,但选择此时返场,这个时机还是有些微妙。\n从表面上看,当下,游戏市场的竞争越来越激烈。腾讯、网易两大头部势力仍无可撼动,阿里、字节跳动、B站等互联网巨头也开始在这一市场划分势力范围。\n在国内,阿里在游戏领域持续深耕之后,孵化出的《三国志·战略版》《三国志幻想大陆》表现亮眼,双双登上App Store手游收入排行榜TOP10。其中,仅在2020上半年,《三国志·战略版》的总流水便达到37亿。以此为起点,阿里逐渐在游戏领域站稳脚跟;字节跳动近来在游戏市场的步子也越来越大。今年3月,公司以260亿元的高价收购游戏公司沐瞳科技,将东南亚影响力最大的MOBA游戏《无尽对决》收入囊中;此外,B站也通过资本布局,在二次元游戏赛道上持续巩固实力。\n\n在国外,伴随着IGG、莉莉丝等游戏厂商从海外市场涌现出来,这一市场也成为更多国内头部势力的布局范围,原本的蓝海优势正在激烈的竞争中逐渐消退,新入场者抢占市场份额的难度也在加大。\n然而,在这样的发展环境下,一些新势力还是“冒出头来”。尤其是《原神》的出现,在上线30天内收入便达到2.45亿美元,一度超越《王者荣耀》《和平精英》同期收入,位列全球手游收入榜首位。背后的公司米哈游也随之变得炙手可热。\n\n这一现象的出现,刺激了头部势力的敏感神经,也加速了巨头“围猎”的脚步。以动作最大的腾讯为例,据镜像娱乐统计,2021年上半年,腾讯参与投资的游戏公司多达49家,平均每4天便投资一家公司。\n\n然而,透过这一现象,其实也反映出,一方面,当下的游戏市场还远未饱和,市场能够容下更多爆款游戏产品;另一方面,激烈的竞争环境,也为当下的游戏市场带来更多变数。在爆款终会被新的爆款替代的行业规律之下,新入局者并非没有机会,或许这才是百度选择此时返场的关键所在。\n但是,机会都是留给有准备的人,百度显然落后太多。发布会现场,百度游戏副总经理王慧也坦言:“重启后的百度团队优势仍不明显,团队一直在思考如何利用百度的资源,走出百度游戏自己的路。”但在变幻莫测的游戏市场之上,留给百度思考的时间已然不多了。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":855326336,"gmtCreate":1635338662521,"gmtModify":1635338662521,"author":{"id":"4090551950961780","authorId":"4090551950961780","name":"LIMSIAWTONG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c81c243d84bad5171a9e253bcc16567","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090551950961780","authorIdStr":"4090551950961780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">$Visa(V)$</a>after PayPal, Square and other online payment company grown up, Visa has affected a lot.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">$Visa(V)$</a>after PayPal, Square and other online payment company grown up, Visa has affected a lot.","text":"$Visa(V)$after PayPal, Square and other online payment company grown up, Visa has affected a lot.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcbfc010f490e53d4044d86858599c2c","width":"1080","height":"3472"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867344278","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":876,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826609610,"gmtCreate":1634008205930,"gmtModify":1634008205930,"author":{"id":"4090551950961780","authorId":"4090551950961780","name":"LIMSIAWTONG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c81c243d84bad5171a9e253bcc16567","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090551950961780","authorIdStr":"4090551950961780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826609610","repostId":"829429039","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":829429039,"gmtCreate":1633534932846,"gmtModify":1633959819576,"author":{"id":"3532831849818465","authorId":"3532831849818465","name":"许亚鑫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72cbe26a31edf2913e619f4aa762d2d4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532831849818465","authorIdStr":"3532831849818465"},"themes":[],"title":"债务危机只是表象,本质的问题决定了美债和黄金的走向","htmlText":"近期市场担忧美国的债务上限问题只是表面现象,本质上是个啥呢?那俩个字是敏感词,我不能写,因为曾经写过这方面的文章直接被系统和谐了,不过我希望各位今天各位看完这篇文章后,能猜得出来那俩个字是啥。 许导在前文《1005:今夜,黑金是全场最靓的那个仔!》说到: 当然,美股的回升也让市场的风险偏好重新抬头,事实上美国的债务上限问题仍然悬而未决,此事要说起来又得长篇大论... 美国的债务上限问题,可以追溯到第一次世界大战。1917年之前,每次美国政府需要借款时,都要获得国会授权。一战期间,为了提高国家机器的灵活度,国会便把举债的权力下放给**。只不过打仗烧钱的速度实在是太快,为了能够限制政府的胡乱开支,就提出了举债的上限,就好比我们的天花板一样,就是图中的Debt ceiling。 事实上,美国的债务问题由来已久,主要是由于长期的财政赤字造成的。美国历史上大多数时候均出现赤字,最近的一次财政盈余还是在二十多年前的克林顿总统时期。这就导致了债务到期后,不得不发新债以偿还旧债。如果债务上限的问题不解决,就意味着美国财政部不能借新债,就会出现违约。USA立国二百多年,还未出现过债务违约,这也是美元安身立命的信用基础之一,一旦这样的事情发生,那边搞不好就得变成USB。(熟悉黄金交易的投资者朋友们,应该都记得2011年8月金价的暴涨,直接的导火索就是三大评级机构之一的标普下调了美债3A评级) 如上图所示,过去十年期间,美国的债务上限有五次出现突破,每一次国会博弈到最后的结果,便是调高债务上限。历史上最惊心动魄的一次,是2013年奥巴马时代,一度距离美债违约仅有几个小时,最终国会才授权通过债务上限的协议。 回到离我们现在时间节点最近的一次债务上限问题,即2019年。 当时国会通过了一项决议,即暂停债务上限至2021年8月,彼时整体的债务规模大概在22万亿美元左右。后面的剧情各位就很熟悉了,新","listText":"近期市场担忧美国的债务上限问题只是表面现象,本质上是个啥呢?那俩个字是敏感词,我不能写,因为曾经写过这方面的文章直接被系统和谐了,不过我希望各位今天各位看完这篇文章后,能猜得出来那俩个字是啥。 许导在前文《1005:今夜,黑金是全场最靓的那个仔!》说到: 当然,美股的回升也让市场的风险偏好重新抬头,事实上美国的债务上限问题仍然悬而未决,此事要说起来又得长篇大论... 美国的债务上限问题,可以追溯到第一次世界大战。1917年之前,每次美国政府需要借款时,都要获得国会授权。一战期间,为了提高国家机器的灵活度,国会便把举债的权力下放给**。只不过打仗烧钱的速度实在是太快,为了能够限制政府的胡乱开支,就提出了举债的上限,就好比我们的天花板一样,就是图中的Debt ceiling。 事实上,美国的债务问题由来已久,主要是由于长期的财政赤字造成的。美国历史上大多数时候均出现赤字,最近的一次财政盈余还是在二十多年前的克林顿总统时期。这就导致了债务到期后,不得不发新债以偿还旧债。如果债务上限的问题不解决,就意味着美国财政部不能借新债,就会出现违约。USA立国二百多年,还未出现过债务违约,这也是美元安身立命的信用基础之一,一旦这样的事情发生,那边搞不好就得变成USB。(熟悉黄金交易的投资者朋友们,应该都记得2011年8月金价的暴涨,直接的导火索就是三大评级机构之一的标普下调了美债3A评级) 如上图所示,过去十年期间,美国的债务上限有五次出现突破,每一次国会博弈到最后的结果,便是调高债务上限。历史上最惊心动魄的一次,是2013年奥巴马时代,一度距离美债违约仅有几个小时,最终国会才授权通过债务上限的协议。 回到离我们现在时间节点最近的一次债务上限问题,即2019年。 当时国会通过了一项决议,即暂停债务上限至2021年8月,彼时整体的债务规模大概在22万亿美元左右。后面的剧情各位就很熟悉了,新","text":"近期市场担忧美国的债务上限问题只是表面现象,本质上是个啥呢?那俩个字是敏感词,我不能写,因为曾经写过这方面的文章直接被系统和谐了,不过我希望各位今天各位看完这篇文章后,能猜得出来那俩个字是啥。 许导在前文《1005:今夜,黑金是全场最靓的那个仔!》说到: 当然,美股的回升也让市场的风险偏好重新抬头,事实上美国的债务上限问题仍然悬而未决,此事要说起来又得长篇大论... 美国的债务上限问题,可以追溯到第一次世界大战。1917年之前,每次美国政府需要借款时,都要获得国会授权。一战期间,为了提高国家机器的灵活度,国会便把举债的权力下放给**。只不过打仗烧钱的速度实在是太快,为了能够限制政府的胡乱开支,就提出了举债的上限,就好比我们的天花板一样,就是图中的Debt ceiling。 事实上,美国的债务问题由来已久,主要是由于长期的财政赤字造成的。美国历史上大多数时候均出现赤字,最近的一次财政盈余还是在二十多年前的克林顿总统时期。这就导致了债务到期后,不得不发新债以偿还旧债。如果债务上限的问题不解决,就意味着美国财政部不能借新债,就会出现违约。USA立国二百多年,还未出现过债务违约,这也是美元安身立命的信用基础之一,一旦这样的事情发生,那边搞不好就得变成USB。(熟悉黄金交易的投资者朋友们,应该都记得2011年8月金价的暴涨,直接的导火索就是三大评级机构之一的标普下调了美债3A评级) 如上图所示,过去十年期间,美国的债务上限有五次出现突破,每一次国会博弈到最后的结果,便是调高债务上限。历史上最惊心动魄的一次,是2013年奥巴马时代,一度距离美债违约仅有几个小时,最终国会才授权通过债务上限的协议。 回到离我们现在时间节点最近的一次债务上限问题,即2019年。 当时国会通过了一项决议,即暂停债务上限至2021年8月,彼时整体的债务规模大概在22万亿美元左右。后面的剧情各位就很熟悉了,新","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9793283324bdcb1b4f4975d7b2b929d","width":"560","height":"599"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9793283324bdcb1b4f4975d7b2b929d","width":"560","height":"599"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4ad058370063e679435c366ea25308","width":"688","height":"209"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829429039","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":963,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826609904,"gmtCreate":1634008199428,"gmtModify":1634008199428,"author":{"id":"4090551950961780","authorId":"4090551950961780","name":"LIMSIAWTONG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c81c243d84bad5171a9e253bcc16567","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090551950961780","authorIdStr":"4090551950961780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826609904","repostId":"882181924","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":882181924,"gmtCreate":1631667152368,"gmtModify":1631885568303,"author":{"id":"3581820976934736","authorId":"3581820976934736","name":"MilkTeaBro","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f96ac4963a3566e7f4d22e78cc23ef9","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581820976934736","authorIdStr":"3581820976934736"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>STI booster is coming, 1% up today.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>STI booster is coming, 1% up today.","text":"$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$STI booster is coming, 1% up today.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a884703306e8c45db74db0659e8fce0a","width":"1057","height":"1671"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/882181924","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826600771,"gmtCreate":1634008189855,"gmtModify":1634008189855,"author":{"id":"4090551950961780","authorId":"4090551950961780","name":"LIMSIAWTONG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c81c243d84bad5171a9e253bcc16567","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090551950961780","authorIdStr":"4090551950961780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826600771","repostId":"867100845","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":867100845,"gmtCreate":1633222625771,"gmtModify":1633222753918,"author":{"id":"3571829172898870","authorId":"3571829172898870","name":"Miaka","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a12ca8f946949499400ef1b9182e2a97","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571829172898870","authorIdStr":"3571829172898870"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$Alphabet(GOOG)$</a>do you feel Google is expensive stock to own?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$Alphabet(GOOG)$</a>do you feel Google is expensive stock to own?","text":"$Alphabet(GOOG)$do you feel Google is expensive stock to own?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c962d34394d5b2c11d157a740bcbf4","width":"1080","height":"3472"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867100845","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826600453,"gmtCreate":1634008184496,"gmtModify":1634008184496,"author":{"id":"4090551950961780","authorId":"4090551950961780","name":"LIMSIAWTONG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c81c243d84bad5171a9e253bcc16567","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090551950961780","authorIdStr":"4090551950961780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826600453","repostId":"828535728","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":828535728,"gmtCreate":1633922942961,"gmtModify":1634030561249,"author":{"id":"3534312667271286","authorId":"3534312667271286","name":"程俊Dream","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a751a4f333aa358f9ddfe4404800ee2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3534312667271286","authorIdStr":"3534312667271286"},"themes":[],"title":"通胀成为了大问题:油价取得重磅突破,美股多头面临关键一周","htmlText":"上周五公布的非农数据大幅不及预期,但并未引发市场过度的动荡,因此前美联储已经明确淡化就业数据因素。与此同时,油价持续上涨突破关键性压制,通胀压力似乎也被鲍威尔提前预知。可以预见,通胀即将成为短中期引发变局的重要因素,而这是否会和全球关系产生关联,也值得投资者关注。 油价取得突破 通胀成为大问题 密切留意的76/77压制区域在上周被原油多头成功突破并站稳,消息面上并无太多推动因素。OPEC+周一会议维持11月增产40万桶/日的既定计划以及美国现在暂无计划释放战略石油储备的消息都被视为被动利好。 此前文章曾经提及过原油能否突破将决定风险资产的行径路线。上行突破意味着市场的热情将会得到一次最后的释放,随后随着通胀的无法控制引发货币政策加速而出现逆转。 联想到9月FOMC上鲍威尔的表态,有理由怀疑美联储已经意识到通胀是个棘手并且必须认真对待的大问题。这也解释了为什么在TAPER的速率上有提速的预期。基于此,11月启动TAPER并给出较为激进的削减规模将是可能性较大的结果。 回到油价本身,突破的有效性目前来看还是比较可靠的,上周的阳线实体充实。除非本周出现反转型的组合形态,否则应该考虑的就是本轮涨势的高度问题了。第一个目标可以看向90附近,随后则是100-105区域。不管哪个价格,都会带来其他大宗商品和通胀的升温压力。当一个通胀阈值触发之后,市场才会出现趋势性逆转。 此前的买跨选择现在来看还是比单边的猜测见顶回落安全系数更高一些。看跌的期权已经基本等于报废状态,看涨期权建议继续持有2周左右时间,看看是否有机会对90的价格进行测试,85附近保守的可以削减头寸或者做一些对冲。 美股会受到怎么样的影响? 大体上,在油价见顶回落之前,美股还将保持其原先的慢牛格局。本周对于美股多头来说是一个比较重要的时间节点,回到4450上方的话将明确阶段性的调整结束并重试涨势。反之,市场则有可能继续三周左右","listText":"上周五公布的非农数据大幅不及预期,但并未引发市场过度的动荡,因此前美联储已经明确淡化就业数据因素。与此同时,油价持续上涨突破关键性压制,通胀压力似乎也被鲍威尔提前预知。可以预见,通胀即将成为短中期引发变局的重要因素,而这是否会和全球关系产生关联,也值得投资者关注。 油价取得突破 通胀成为大问题 密切留意的76/77压制区域在上周被原油多头成功突破并站稳,消息面上并无太多推动因素。OPEC+周一会议维持11月增产40万桶/日的既定计划以及美国现在暂无计划释放战略石油储备的消息都被视为被动利好。 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回到油价本身,突破的有效性目前来看还是比较可靠的,上周的阳线实体充实。除非本周出现反转型的组合形态,否则应该考虑的就是本轮涨势的高度问题了。第一个目标可以看向90附近,随后则是100-105区域。不管哪个价格,都会带来其他大宗商品和通胀的升温压力。当一个通胀阈值触发之后,市场才会出现趋势性逆转。 此前的买跨选择现在来看还是比单边的猜测见顶回落安全系数更高一些。看跌的期权已经基本等于报废状态,看涨期权建议继续持有2周左右时间,看看是否有机会对90的价格进行测试,85附近保守的可以削减头寸或者做一些对冲。 美股会受到怎么样的影响? 大体上,在油价见顶回落之前,美股还将保持其原先的慢牛格局。本周对于美股多头来说是一个比较重要的时间节点,回到4450上方的话将明确阶段性的调整结束并重试涨势。反之,市场则有可能继续三周左右","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de38267b4ebe267e27fea685234d1947","width":"1055","height":"563"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828535728","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":899,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":805346084,"gmtCreate":1627862968548,"gmtModify":1633755907202,"author":{"id":"4090551950961780","authorId":"4090551950961780","name":"LIMSIAWTONG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c81c243d84bad5171a9e253bcc16567","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090551950961780","authorIdStr":"4090551950961780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这个就是靠我们的观察来稳住","listText":"这个就是靠我们的观察来稳住","text":"这个就是靠我们的观察来稳住","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805346084","repostId":"2155894163","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":769,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":802943395,"gmtCreate":1627710796717,"gmtModify":1633756875086,"author":{"id":"4090551950961780","authorId":"4090551950961780","name":"LIMSIAWTONG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c81c243d84bad5171a9e253bcc16567","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090551950961780","authorIdStr":"4090551950961780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"上半场这样已经很不错了","listText":"上半场这样已经很不错了","text":"上半场这样已经很不错了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802943395","repostId":"2155236168","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":802959260,"gmtCreate":1627709679050,"gmtModify":1633756883976,"author":{"id":"4090551950961780","authorId":"4090551950961780","name":"LIMSIAWTONG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c81c243d84bad5171a9e253bcc16567","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090551950961780","authorIdStr":"4090551950961780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"已经开发就好","listText":"已经开发就好","text":"已经开发就好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802959260","repostId":"2155616846","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2155616846","pubTimestamp":1627707909,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2155616846?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-31 13:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉中国第900座超级充电站现已上线开放","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2155616846","media":"太平洋汽车网","summary":"前不久,特斯拉首席执行官(CEO)埃隆·马斯克就曾公开表示:“公司计划在今年晚些时候向其他电动汽车开放特斯拉的超级充电站网络,之后会将特斯拉充电网络向所有国家的其他电动汽车开放”。截止2021年上半年,特斯拉已在全球建设开放了超25000座超级充电站;其中在中国大陆开放了超过870座超级充电站、超6700个超级充电桩;特斯拉充电网络已全面覆盖中国大陆320座以上城市。(图/文:太平洋汽车网 柳昀青)","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/13833830714/0\"/><p>前不久,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>首席执行官(CEO)埃隆·马斯克就曾公开表示:“公司计划在今年晚些时候向其他电动汽车开放特斯拉的超级充电站网络,之后会将特斯拉充电网络向所有国家的其他电动汽车开放”。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/13462735617/0\"/><p>截止2021年上半年,特斯拉已在全球建设开放了超25000座超级充电站;其中在中国大陆开放了超过870座超级充电站、超6700个超级充电桩;特斯拉充电网络已全面覆盖中国大陆320座以上城市。(图/文:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">太平洋</a>汽车网 柳昀青)</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉中国第900座超级充电站现已上线开放</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉中国第900座超级充电站现已上线开放\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-31 13:05 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021073113061579da940d&s=b><strong>太平洋汽车网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>前不久,特斯拉首席执行官(CEO)埃隆·马斯克就曾公开表示:“公司计划在今年晚些时候向其他电动汽车开放特斯拉的超级充电站网络,之后会将特斯拉充电网络向所有国家的其他电动汽车开放”。截止2021年上半年,特斯拉已在全球建设开放了超25000座超级充电站;其中在中国大陆开放了超过870座超级充电站、超6700个超级充电桩;特斯拉充电网络已全面覆盖中国大陆320座以上城市。(图/文:太平洋汽车网 柳昀青...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021073113061579da940d&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78edc8337704ffd6760fab4583246af8","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021073113061579da940d&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2155616846","content_text":"前不久,特斯拉首席执行官(CEO)埃隆·马斯克就曾公开表示:“公司计划在今年晚些时候向其他电动汽车开放特斯拉的超级充电站网络,之后会将特斯拉充电网络向所有国家的其他电动汽车开放”。截止2021年上半年,特斯拉已在全球建设开放了超25000座超级充电站;其中在中国大陆开放了超过870座超级充电站、超6700个超级充电桩;特斯拉充电网络已全面覆盖中国大陆320座以上城市。(图/文:太平洋汽车网 柳昀青)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}