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2021-07-19

Good[真香]

Goodhart's Law: When Investors Mistake The Distortions Of The Wall Of Money For Wisdom

2021-07-19

[惊讶]

Chinese electric carmaker Xpeng prices its new sedan at $24,700 undercutting Tesla

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But once they targeted that optimal range, M1 lost its value as a measure.</p>\n<p>Market and economic actors adjusted their behavior to game the M1 system. So central bankers shifted to M2, then M3, and M4.</p>\n<p>“Investing is obviously not a science, but if it were, we would say that you can’t act on something and observe it at the same time.” French colonialists discovered this in rat infested Hanoi, when they offered a bounty for killing rodents. To receive the reward, the Vietnamese were required to produce severed tails.</p>\n<p>Soon thereafter, tail-less rats scurried throughout the city. The bounty hunters removed their tails and released them to the filthy sewers to breed. Boosting their bounty.</p>\n<p><b>“Investors discover pricing anomalies from the past. And they pile into them, ensuring that for a time they persist.”</b>They mistake the distortions of their wall of money for the wisdom of their observations.</p>\n<p>They interact with the market as if they’re exogenous, when, in fact, they’ve become endogenous. “Today’s greatest example of Goodhart’s Law in action can be found in volatility markets.”</p>\n<p>The VIX index measures the expected volatility of the S&amp;P 500, and is calculated by multiplying expected 30-day variance by 100. As a measure of market fear, it was quite useful, until it became something that could be traded.</p>\n<p>“The sheer size of outstanding positions in VIX futures, VIX options, ETFs, ETNs and bank volatility selling programs is such that those trading these markets can no longer separate the true measure of volatility from their own actions.”</p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goodhart's Law: When Investors Mistake The Distortions Of The Wall Of Money For Wisdom</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoodhart's Law: When Investors Mistake The Distortions Of The Wall Of Money For Wisdom\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 13:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goodharts-law-when-investors-mistake-distortions-wall-money-wisdom><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure,” said the Englishman, stepping outside of himself. “That’s Goodhart’s Law.”\nCharles Goodhart observed that central banks measured ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goodharts-law-when-investors-mistake-distortions-wall-money-wisdom\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goodharts-law-when-investors-mistake-distortions-wall-money-wisdom","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174765989","content_text":"“When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure,” said the Englishman, stepping outside of himself. “That’s Goodhart’s Law.”\nCharles Goodhart observed that central banks measured money supply, and found certain M1 growth rates to be optimal. But once they targeted that optimal range, M1 lost its value as a measure.\nMarket and economic actors adjusted their behavior to game the M1 system. So central bankers shifted to M2, then M3, and M4.\n“Investing is obviously not a science, but if it were, we would say that you can’t act on something and observe it at the same time.” French colonialists discovered this in rat infested Hanoi, when they offered a bounty for killing rodents. To receive the reward, the Vietnamese were required to produce severed tails.\nSoon thereafter, tail-less rats scurried throughout the city. The bounty hunters removed their tails and released them to the filthy sewers to breed. Boosting their bounty.\n“Investors discover pricing anomalies from the past. And they pile into them, ensuring that for a time they persist.”They mistake the distortions of their wall of money for the wisdom of their observations.\nThey interact with the market as if they’re exogenous, when, in fact, they’ve become endogenous. “Today’s greatest example of Goodhart’s Law in action can be found in volatility markets.”\nThe VIX index measures the expected volatility of the S&P 500, and is calculated by multiplying expected 30-day variance by 100. As a measure of market fear, it was quite useful, until it became something that could be traded.\n“The sheer size of outstanding positions in VIX futures, VIX options, ETFs, ETNs and bank volatility selling programs is such that those trading these markets can no longer separate the true measure of volatility from their own actions.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":77,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":173459125,"gmtCreate":1626682099267,"gmtModify":1633924973112,"author":{"id":"4089782286698550","authorId":"4089782286698550","name":"jp1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/582acb757640747714d17c7565761c11","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173459125","repostId":"1171640883","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171640883","pubTimestamp":1626675300,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1171640883?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 14:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chinese electric carmaker Xpeng prices its new sedan at $24,700 undercutting Tesla","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171640883","media":"CNBC","summary":"GUANGZHOU, China — Chinese electric carmaker Xpeng Inc. has priced its new P5 sedan as low as 160,00","content":"<div>\n<p>GUANGZHOU, China — Chinese electric carmaker Xpeng Inc. has priced its new P5 sedan as low as 160,000 yuan ($24,694) days after Tesla launched a cheaper version of its Model Y sports utility vehicle\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/19/xpeng-p5-price-starts-at-24700-undercutting-tesla-model-3-in-china.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese electric carmaker Xpeng prices its new sedan at $24,700 undercutting Tesla</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese electric carmaker Xpeng prices its new sedan at $24,700 undercutting Tesla\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 14:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/19/xpeng-p5-price-starts-at-24700-undercutting-tesla-model-3-in-china.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>GUANGZHOU, China — Chinese electric carmaker Xpeng Inc. has priced its new P5 sedan as low as 160,000 yuan ($24,694) days after Tesla launched a cheaper version of its Model Y sports utility vehicle\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/19/xpeng-p5-price-starts-at-24700-undercutting-tesla-model-3-in-china.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/19/xpeng-p5-price-starts-at-24700-undercutting-tesla-model-3-in-china.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1171640883","content_text":"GUANGZHOU, China — Chinese electric carmaker Xpeng Inc. has priced its new P5 sedan as low as 160,000 yuan ($24,694) days after Tesla launched a cheaper version of its Model Y sports utility vehicle\nThe aggressive pricing from Xpeng comes as China's electric vehicle market continues to heat up with an increasing number of players.\nThe P5 — Xpeng's third production model and second sedan after the P7— was launched earlier this year. There are six different versions of the car with different features, and prices range from 160,000 yuan to 230,000 yuan.\nXpeng's P7 sedan starts from 229,900 yuan after subsidies. Tesla's Model 3 starts from 250,900 yuan in China.\nThe Guangzhou-headquartered company is using Lidar, or light detection and ranging technology, in the P5 to boost some of its semi-autonomous driving features. Lidar uses laser beams to map out the surrounding environment, and measure the distance of objects to help the car determine obstacles in its pathway.\nFour out of the six P5 models come fitted with Lidar and Xpeng's advanced driver-assistancesystem (ADAS) called XPILOT.\nXpeng is one of a number of players in China's electric vehicle industry which spans from established automakers through to start-ups.\nTesla, which has facedweeks of bad press in China, introduced a cheaper version of its Model Y SUV with a shorter driving range this month, which starts at 276,000 yuan after subsidies.\nXpeng delivered 17,398 vehicles in the second quarter of the year, a 439% increase year-over-year. The company will be hoping the P5 can help it to continue to grow sales in a new price segment.\nThis month, Xpeng, which is already listed in New York, carried out a so-calleddual primary listing in Hong Kongand raised 14.02 billion Hong Kong dollars ($1.8 billion).","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":89,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}