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2021-07-12

Is it on peak?

Is It Too Late to Buy NVIDIA Stock?

2021-07-12

Future for this stock?

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Thechip stockhas rallied by nearly 240% since January 2020.</p>\n<p>The magnitude of that surge has plenty of investors questioning whether there's still a chance to buy in, or if they have essentially missed out on their opportunity to profit from this particular rally. Let's take a closer look at NVIDIA and attempt to provide an answer.</p>\n<p><b>The state of the stock</b></p>\n<p>NVIDIA's share price has increased by just over 100% in the last 12 months, and its scheduled four-for-onestock split is less than two weeks away.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/559f2527ced6eebe92cebc5c4bff9bbe\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>That stock price surge has taken NVIDIA's P/E ratio to almost 95. The stock has not seen such high valuations since the early 2000s. Moreover, when NVIDIA rallied in late 2016 and early 2018, P/E multiples above 50 amounted to sell signals -- the stock plummeted soon after hitting those levels.</p>\n<p>Additionally, it has become expensive compared to its peers. Archrival<b>AMD</b>sells for under 40 times earnings,<b>Qualcomm</b>trades at 20 times earnings, and<b>Intel</b>sports a P/E ratio of less than 13.</p>\n<p><b>Competitive advantages</b></p>\n<p>On the positive side, NVIDIA possessives competitive edges in a number of tech niches. It has gained traction in the cryptocurrency space with a popular and powerful GPU specifically designed for mining digital tokens. It has built a presence in the realm of supercomputers -- its Cambridge-1 supercomputer will be used by businesses and academics to accelerate research in healthcare and genomics. Furthermore, assuming its proposed acquisition of Arm Holdings goes through, it could further widen its competitive moat, as many manufacturers use Arm's chips in devices such as digital TVs and smartphones.</p>\n<p>And its longtime core products -- GPUs for video gaming -- are helping it foster innovations in the growing market for artificial intelligence systems. Its chips will power key applications in self-driving cars, data centers, and cloud computing, among others. Additionally, its AI-on-5G platform will also aid in deploying AI-based applications across 5G networks.</p>\n<p><b>Financials and outlook</b></p>\n<p>Given these innovations, investors can easily understand how NVIDIA's successes have boosted its financials. In its fiscal 2022 first quarter, which ended May 2, revenue rose 84% year over year to $5.66 billion. This included a 106% increase in gaming revenue and a 79% surge in data center revenue.</p>\n<p>That lifted its GAAP net income by 109% to over $1.9 billion. Slower growth in operating expenses along with a boost in earnings from unrealized gains contributed to the bottom-line gains.</p>\n<p>That performance for the most recently reported quarter also outpaced NVIDIA's results for its full fiscal 2021, when revenue rose 53% and GAAP net income increased 55%.</p>\n<p>The company saw nearly $1.6 billion in free cash flow in the latest quarter, and close to $4.7 billion in fiscal 2021.</p>\n<p>Nonetheless, its outlook may give investors pause. For its fiscal Q2, the company expects revenue to be within 2 percentage points of $6.3 billion, a massive increase from the $3.9 billion it reported in the same quarter last year. However, the company declined to offer an outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2022. This could reflect management's uncertainty about macro conditions as global economies attempt to emerge from the shadow of the pandemic.</p>\n<p><b>Should I still consider NVIDIA?</b></p>\n<p>Although the company's long-term growth story could easily continue, investors may want to avoid NVIDIA stock for now. Management's decision not to provide an outlook beyond Q2 indicates it could hit a rough patch ahead. Moreover, it doesn't appear wise to pay almost 95 times earnings for this chipmaker under current conditions, especially when the stock rarely traded at a P/E ratio above 50 before 2021. While it may not be too late to buy NVIDIA stock, investors should probably assume that they have missed out on the chance to benefit from this rally.</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is It Too Late to Buy NVIDIA Stock?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs It Too Late to Buy NVIDIA Stock?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-12 10:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/11/is-it-too-late-to-buy-nvidia-stock/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The chipmaking giant has posted some serious share price gains over the past year.\n\nKey Points\n\nNVIDIA trades close to record valuations.\nGPUs continue to become an increasingly important component of...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/11/is-it-too-late-to-buy-nvidia-stock/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/11/is-it-too-late-to-buy-nvidia-stock/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154588051","content_text":"The chipmaking giant has posted some serious share price gains over the past year.\n\nKey Points\n\nNVIDIA trades close to record valuations.\nGPUs continue to become an increasingly important component of tech innovation.\nA limited outlook gives investors little visibility beyond the second quarter.\n\nNVIDIA(NASDAQ:NVDA)shareholders have been benefiting mightily from the ongoing chip shortage, as well as from the popularity of the company's offerings for GPU-based applications. Thechip stockhas rallied by nearly 240% since January 2020.\nThe magnitude of that surge has plenty of investors questioning whether there's still a chance to buy in, or if they have essentially missed out on their opportunity to profit from this particular rally. Let's take a closer look at NVIDIA and attempt to provide an answer.\nThe state of the stock\nNVIDIA's share price has increased by just over 100% in the last 12 months, and its scheduled four-for-onestock split is less than two weeks away.\n\nThat stock price surge has taken NVIDIA's P/E ratio to almost 95. The stock has not seen such high valuations since the early 2000s. Moreover, when NVIDIA rallied in late 2016 and early 2018, P/E multiples above 50 amounted to sell signals -- the stock plummeted soon after hitting those levels.\nAdditionally, it has become expensive compared to its peers. ArchrivalAMDsells for under 40 times earnings,Qualcommtrades at 20 times earnings, andIntelsports a P/E ratio of less than 13.\nCompetitive advantages\nOn the positive side, NVIDIA possessives competitive edges in a number of tech niches. It has gained traction in the cryptocurrency space with a popular and powerful GPU specifically designed for mining digital tokens. It has built a presence in the realm of supercomputers -- its Cambridge-1 supercomputer will be used by businesses and academics to accelerate research in healthcare and genomics. Furthermore, assuming its proposed acquisition of Arm Holdings goes through, it could further widen its competitive moat, as many manufacturers use Arm's chips in devices such as digital TVs and smartphones.\nAnd its longtime core products -- GPUs for video gaming -- are helping it foster innovations in the growing market for artificial intelligence systems. Its chips will power key applications in self-driving cars, data centers, and cloud computing, among others. Additionally, its AI-on-5G platform will also aid in deploying AI-based applications across 5G networks.\nFinancials and outlook\nGiven these innovations, investors can easily understand how NVIDIA's successes have boosted its financials. In its fiscal 2022 first quarter, which ended May 2, revenue rose 84% year over year to $5.66 billion. This included a 106% increase in gaming revenue and a 79% surge in data center revenue.\nThat lifted its GAAP net income by 109% to over $1.9 billion. Slower growth in operating expenses along with a boost in earnings from unrealized gains contributed to the bottom-line gains.\nThat performance for the most recently reported quarter also outpaced NVIDIA's results for its full fiscal 2021, when revenue rose 53% and GAAP net income increased 55%.\nThe company saw nearly $1.6 billion in free cash flow in the latest quarter, and close to $4.7 billion in fiscal 2021.\nNonetheless, its outlook may give investors pause. For its fiscal Q2, the company expects revenue to be within 2 percentage points of $6.3 billion, a massive increase from the $3.9 billion it reported in the same quarter last year. However, the company declined to offer an outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2022. This could reflect management's uncertainty about macro conditions as global economies attempt to emerge from the shadow of the pandemic.\nShould I still consider NVIDIA?\nAlthough the company's long-term growth story could easily continue, investors may want to avoid NVIDIA stock for now. Management's decision not to provide an outlook beyond Q2 indicates it could hit a rough patch ahead. Moreover, it doesn't appear wise to pay almost 95 times earnings for this chipmaker under current conditions, especially when the stock rarely traded at a P/E ratio above 50 before 2021. While it may not be too late to buy NVIDIA stock, investors should probably assume that they have missed out on the chance to benefit from this rally.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":27,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146888245,"gmtCreate":1626066278687,"gmtModify":1631889103316,"author":{"id":"4089032791443960","authorId":"4089032791443960","authorIdStr":"4089032791443960","name":"Prasanthkoni","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089032791443960"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Future for this stock?&nbsp;","listText":"Future for this stock?&nbsp;","text":"Future for this stock?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146888245","repostId":"1155038838","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":43,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":146888245,"gmtCreate":1626066278687,"gmtModify":1631889103316,"author":{"id":"4089032791443960","authorId":"4089032791443960","authorIdStr":"4089032791443960","name":"Prasanthkoni","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089032791443960"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Future for this stock?&nbsp;","listText":"Future for this stock?&nbsp;","text":"Future for this stock?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146888245","repostId":"1155038838","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155038838","pubTimestamp":1626057810,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155038838?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-12 10:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: New Highs, But Now What?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155038838","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple hit an all-time new high last Friday, but where do we go from here?There is one chart in particular that every investor should be watching as it could dictate the stock's next move!AAPL has the potential to produce 12%+ annualized income with a decent margin of safety using the Triple Income Wheel strategy.Looking for more investing ideas like this one?Get them exclusively at Option Income Advisor.Learn More. So Apple Inc.  is at a new high... again. But this time feels a little different.","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple hit an all-time new high last Friday, but where do we go from here?</li>\n <li>There is one chart in particular that every investor should be watching as it could dictate the stock's next move!</li>\n <li>AAPL has the potential to produce 12%+ annualized income with a decent margin of safety using the Triple Income Wheel strategy.</li>\n <li>Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Option Income Advisor.Learn More »</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24b65798f03c6f9376257bba2741e588\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</p>\n<p>So Apple Inc. (AAPL) is at a new high... again. But this time feels a little different.</p>\n<p>Market valuations, in general, are stretched, as stocks just notched the 2nd best first half of the year performance in history (up ~14%).</p>\n<p>Interest rates don't seem to know where they are going.</p>\n<p>Inflation is spiking (although many think this is \"transitory\").</p>\n<p>Unemployment is still stubbornly high.</p>\n<p>You get the picture... there's uncertainty.</p>\n<p>All that said, I could make a case for Apple to go either higher or lower over the short term... and there is one chart, in particular, that could dictate that!</p>\n<p><b>The Most Important Chart For Apple</b></p>\n<p>As much as we all like to talk about 5G rollouts and the growth of Apple's wearables segment, nothing will be more important to the stock over the next 12 months than what is in the chart below.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8b9e7dd9a7a29241bc334872748b52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Yes, this is a chart of Apple's stock price vs. the 10 Year Treasury rate. We are at that point in the cycle, folks. Growth stocks are already starting to react to movements in rates... and even Apple has not been able to hide from it.</p>\n<p>The good and the bad of this is that if interest rates stay low (the good), Apple will likely continue to trend higher... but if rates spike (the bad), Apple will get crushed along with the rest of the growth stocks. Unfortunately, the consensus is that rates will certainly increase over the next 12-24 months. That said, the short-term is up in the air. So keep this chart on your radar.</p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>We primarily trade an income strategy that we call the Triple Income Wheel, which starts with writing cash-secured puts on high-quality stocks that you would like to own at a lower price. We won't go into full detail here, but the diagram below is a good summary of the strategy.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdd16ba25690201bcb1771ec8a557b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Since cash-secured puts are short-term trades in nature (typically less than 60 days until maturity), our analysis certainly depends more on short-term catalysts and technical support levels, but we also like to be long-term neutral or bullish on the stock as well.</p>\n<p>Here is our typical framework for analysis (which is a good outline for the article):</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Long-Term Thesis (Dividend, Safety, Value)</li>\n <li>Short-Term Thesis (Strike Zone, EPS Risk, Technical Support)</li>\n <li>Cash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)</li>\n <li>Downside Considerations</li>\n <li>Conclusion</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Apple designs a wide variety of consumer electronic devices, including smartphones (iPhone), tablets (iPad), PCs (MAC), smartwatches (Apple Watch), and TV boxes (Apple TV), among others. The iPhone makes up the majority of Apple’s total revenue. In addition, Apple offers its customers a variety of services such as Apple Music, iCloud, Apple Care, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple Card, and Apple Pay, among others. Apple's products run internally developed software and semiconductors, and the firm is well known for its integration of hardware, software, and services. Apple's products are distributed online as well as through company-owned stores and third-party retailers. The company generates roughly 40% of its revenue from the Americas, with the remainder earned internationally.</p>\n<p><i>(Source: YCharts)</i></p>\n<p>Long-Term Thesis (Dividend, Safety, Value)</p>\n<p>In general, our high-level long-term investment thesis on a stock is more quantitative in nature than qualitative.</p>\n<p>That said, here is how Apple currently ranks across our key long-term ranking measures: Dividend (4), Safety (9), Value (3).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30644bfee0b070e2d9015bff11598f30\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"122\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Note that our rankings are from 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest).</i></p>\n<p><b>Dividend</b></p>\n<p>We all know that Apple has the potential to be the greatest dividend stock of all time...it just isn't ready yet! That said, the company has raised its dividend in each of the past 8 years and currently yields 0.61% with a really low payout ratio of 17.0%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ee1e06934335af3e4f5201e9e7957e3\" tg-width=\"564\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>In addition, the company has steadily been growing its annual payout, with 1-year and 5-year compound annual growth rates of 6.0% and 9.9%, respectively. Basically, everything looks pretty good except for the yield!</p>\n<p><b>Safety</b></p>\n<p>Apple's historical sales and EPS growth charts have always been a thing of beauty (hence the Safety Rating of 9)! Although some sales were certainly pulled forward during the pandemic, the company is expected to earn $5.17 per share in 2021 (a 58% increase over 2020). However, EPS is expected to stabilize in 2022 with projected EPS of $5.30.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9bfeb0d3855a566e05ec26e7af849a8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">That said, the company's balance sheet is also extremely strong with $69.8 billion of cash/short-term investments and management is producing an amazing return on invested capital of 141.5%!</p>\n<p>Apple's reasonable historical stock volatility, with a 5-year standard deviation of 29.4% and beta of 1.2, is also helping to maintain its high Safety Ranking.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>Apple currently carries a low rating of 3 for valuation. As shown in the table below, the company is trading at a premium (even on a forward basis) compared to its historical averages for price/sales, price/earnings, and EV/EBITDA. That said, the market has \"repriced\" Apple over the past few years as the company has transitioned from a hardware business to more of a services business. As such, historical valuations are not a good proxy or comparison for future valuations.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a83b3d7c6ac8daaf28bd3b7266725a04\" tg-width=\"564\" tg-height=\"226\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Despite having a really low dividend yield, Apple actually has a decent shareholder yield of 3.8%.<i>Note that shareholder yield is the combination of buyback yield and dividend yield.</i></p>\n<p><b>Long-term View</b></p>\n<p>Based on the data above and our various rankings, we have a Neutral long-term perspective on Apple. As sales and earnings growth stabilize and slow post-pandemic, the catalyst for earnings surprises may be limited. In addition, the company's valuation feels full at current levels.</p>\n<p><b>Short-Term Thesis (Strike Zone, EPS Risk, Technical Support)</b></p>\n<p>From a short-term perspective (especially as it is related to selling cash-secured puts), estimating a good \"strike zone\" is key to our analysis. Our strike zone takes into account (1) the stock's volatility, (2) recent performance (i.e., how much has it already pulled back from its recent highs), (3) near-term EPS risk, and (4) the overall volatility of the market (i.e., VIX level).</p>\n<p>As shown in the table below, our strike zone for Apple is currently $119.00-$133.00, representing a required minimum margin of safety of 8.5%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac7007040b92ed0d32a8eb27c8620c3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"164\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>As discussed in the safety ranking analysis above, Apple ranks positively on a relative basis for Volatility/Risk (rating of 8). However, the stock just made a new 52-week high last Friday (so its Pullback Indicator of 2 has a negative effect on minimum required margin of safety, which is currently at 8.5%).</p>\n<p>That said, AAPL also reports earnings within the next 30 days, so that will need to be on our radar for the option analysis.</p>\n<p>As shown in the chart below, the stock is still in a very strong uptrend with its 50-day moving average (blue line) trading above its 200-day moving average (red line). We now have three good levels of support to watch:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>50-day MA (~$130.00)</li>\n <li>200-day MA (~$126.00)</li>\n <li>Recent low in March 2021 (~$120.00)</li>\n</ol>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b4071baef483a8e8478deb78e45bb73\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Short-Term View</b></p>\n<p>There appears to be some decent technical support around our strike zone of $119.00-$133.00, which obviously makes us feel relatively good about selling a cash-secured put in the strike zone if we can.</p>\n<p>Cash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)</p>\n<p>Ideally, when we sell a cash-secured put and start the Triple Income Wheel process, our put is in our \"Strike Zone\" for that stock. In our opinion, that puts the odds of long-term success in our favor.</p>\n<p>The three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Premium Yield% (or Average Monthly Yield%):</b>Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).<i>Assumes that the option is fully cash-secured.</i></li>\n <li><b>Margin-of-Safety %:</b>Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.</li>\n <li><b>Delta:</b>A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><i>Note that there is always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.</i></p>\n<p><i>An investor should always be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance! The Triple Income Wheel can be adapted to suit your needs.</i></p>\n<p>Now let's look at the cash-secured put analysis for Apple. We are focused on the August monthly contract that expires on 8/20/21.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b192ce564ff2fe4aaaf8abf9f4c7542\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>We have highlighted 3 levels of trades based on various risk profiles: Aggressive (-A-), Base (-B-), and Conservative (-C-).</p>\n<p>Ideally, we like to stick with our target levels for our Base portfolio:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Average Monthly Yield % (AMY%): 1.0%-1.5%</li>\n <li>Strike price that is in the strike zone (i.e., margin of safety above the required minimum)</li>\n <li>Delta &lt; 30</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>The AAPL Aug 20th $135.00 put option @ ~$1.92 meets all of our criteria with an AMY% of 1.0%, a Margin-of-Safety of 7.0%, and a Delta of 22</b>.</p>\n<p><i>Again, based on your risk tolerance, you could choose a strike price that is more aggressive ($140.00 strike) or more conservative ($130.00 strike) than the base trade.</i></p>\n<p><b>Downside Considerations</b></p>\n<p>Assuming we sold the AAPL Aug20th $135.00 strike put option @ $1.92, we would collect $192.00 of premium for each option contract sold. In return for this premium, we agree (and are obligated) to buy 100 shares of AAPL stock for each contract sold at the strike price of $135.00.</p>\n<p>If the stock stays above $135.00 between now and expiration (8/20/21), the option expires worthless and we keep the premium of $1.92.</p>\n<p>However,<i>the downside of this trade comes into play if the stock closes below $135.00 on expiration (8/20/21). Since we are obligated to buy the stock at $135.00, we would have a potential unrealized capital loss on our hands (depending on how low the stock closed on expiration)</i>. We do get to keep the premium either way though, so our breakeven cost basis would be $133.08 ($135.00 - $1.92).</p>\n<p>All that said, when managing the Triple Income Wheel, you should expect to take assignment (buy the stock) on 5-10% of your cash-secured put trades.</p>\n<p>But when this happens, we get to move to step 3 in the diagram above and sell some covered calls on our stock position to start the income flowing again and start mitigating our risk right away.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Based on our long-term and short-term views on Apple, we believe that a cash-secured put strategy makes a lot of sense right now for investors interested in a new position in the stock. The AAPL Aug 20th $135.00 put option would generate an average monthly yield of 1.0% (or 1.4% over the next 42 days) with a margin-of-safety of 7.0%.</p>\n<p>Assuming you could continue to roll this position every 45-60 days with similar risk/reward parameters, you could build 12%+ annualized income from Apple over the next 12 months (no bad for a stock that currently has a dividend yield under 1.0%).</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: New Highs, But Now What?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: New Highs, But Now What?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-12 10:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438692-apple-new-highs-but-now-what><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple hit an all-time new high last Friday, but where do we go from here?\nThere is one chart in particular that every investor should be watching as it could dictate the stock's next move!\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438692-apple-new-highs-but-now-what\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438692-apple-new-highs-but-now-what","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1155038838","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple hit an all-time new high last Friday, but where do we go from here?\nThere is one chart in particular that every investor should be watching as it could dictate the stock's next move!\nAAPL has the potential to produce 12%+ annualized income with a decent margin of safety using the Triple Income Wheel strategy.\nLooking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Option Income Advisor.Learn More »\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nSo Apple Inc. (AAPL) is at a new high... again. But this time feels a little different.\nMarket valuations, in general, are stretched, as stocks just notched the 2nd best first half of the year performance in history (up ~14%).\nInterest rates don't seem to know where they are going.\nInflation is spiking (although many think this is \"transitory\").\nUnemployment is still stubbornly high.\nYou get the picture... there's uncertainty.\nAll that said, I could make a case for Apple to go either higher or lower over the short term... and there is one chart, in particular, that could dictate that!\nThe Most Important Chart For Apple\nAs much as we all like to talk about 5G rollouts and the growth of Apple's wearables segment, nothing will be more important to the stock over the next 12 months than what is in the chart below.\nYes, this is a chart of Apple's stock price vs. the 10 Year Treasury rate. We are at that point in the cycle, folks. Growth stocks are already starting to react to movements in rates... and even Apple has not been able to hide from it.\nThe good and the bad of this is that if interest rates stay low (the good), Apple will likely continue to trend higher... but if rates spike (the bad), Apple will get crushed along with the rest of the growth stocks. Unfortunately, the consensus is that rates will certainly increase over the next 12-24 months. That said, the short-term is up in the air. So keep this chart on your radar.\nIntroduction\nWe primarily trade an income strategy that we call the Triple Income Wheel, which starts with writing cash-secured puts on high-quality stocks that you would like to own at a lower price. We won't go into full detail here, but the diagram below is a good summary of the strategy.\n\nSince cash-secured puts are short-term trades in nature (typically less than 60 days until maturity), our analysis certainly depends more on short-term catalysts and technical support levels, but we also like to be long-term neutral or bullish on the stock as well.\nHere is our typical framework for analysis (which is a good outline for the article):\n\nLong-Term Thesis (Dividend, Safety, Value)\nShort-Term Thesis (Strike Zone, EPS Risk, Technical Support)\nCash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)\nDownside Considerations\nConclusion\n\nApple designs a wide variety of consumer electronic devices, including smartphones (iPhone), tablets (iPad), PCs (MAC), smartwatches (Apple Watch), and TV boxes (Apple TV), among others. The iPhone makes up the majority of Apple’s total revenue. In addition, Apple offers its customers a variety of services such as Apple Music, iCloud, Apple Care, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple Card, and Apple Pay, among others. Apple's products run internally developed software and semiconductors, and the firm is well known for its integration of hardware, software, and services. Apple's products are distributed online as well as through company-owned stores and third-party retailers. The company generates roughly 40% of its revenue from the Americas, with the remainder earned internationally.\n(Source: YCharts)\nLong-Term Thesis (Dividend, Safety, Value)\nIn general, our high-level long-term investment thesis on a stock is more quantitative in nature than qualitative.\nThat said, here is how Apple currently ranks across our key long-term ranking measures: Dividend (4), Safety (9), Value (3).\n\nNote that our rankings are from 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest).\nDividend\nWe all know that Apple has the potential to be the greatest dividend stock of all time...it just isn't ready yet! That said, the company has raised its dividend in each of the past 8 years and currently yields 0.61% with a really low payout ratio of 17.0%.\n\nIn addition, the company has steadily been growing its annual payout, with 1-year and 5-year compound annual growth rates of 6.0% and 9.9%, respectively. Basically, everything looks pretty good except for the yield!\nSafety\nApple's historical sales and EPS growth charts have always been a thing of beauty (hence the Safety Rating of 9)! Although some sales were certainly pulled forward during the pandemic, the company is expected to earn $5.17 per share in 2021 (a 58% increase over 2020). However, EPS is expected to stabilize in 2022 with projected EPS of $5.30.\nThat said, the company's balance sheet is also extremely strong with $69.8 billion of cash/short-term investments and management is producing an amazing return on invested capital of 141.5%!\nApple's reasonable historical stock volatility, with a 5-year standard deviation of 29.4% and beta of 1.2, is also helping to maintain its high Safety Ranking.\nValuation\nApple currently carries a low rating of 3 for valuation. As shown in the table below, the company is trading at a premium (even on a forward basis) compared to its historical averages for price/sales, price/earnings, and EV/EBITDA. That said, the market has \"repriced\" Apple over the past few years as the company has transitioned from a hardware business to more of a services business. As such, historical valuations are not a good proxy or comparison for future valuations.\n\nDespite having a really low dividend yield, Apple actually has a decent shareholder yield of 3.8%.Note that shareholder yield is the combination of buyback yield and dividend yield.\nLong-term View\nBased on the data above and our various rankings, we have a Neutral long-term perspective on Apple. As sales and earnings growth stabilize and slow post-pandemic, the catalyst for earnings surprises may be limited. In addition, the company's valuation feels full at current levels.\nShort-Term Thesis (Strike Zone, EPS Risk, Technical Support)\nFrom a short-term perspective (especially as it is related to selling cash-secured puts), estimating a good \"strike zone\" is key to our analysis. Our strike zone takes into account (1) the stock's volatility, (2) recent performance (i.e., how much has it already pulled back from its recent highs), (3) near-term EPS risk, and (4) the overall volatility of the market (i.e., VIX level).\nAs shown in the table below, our strike zone for Apple is currently $119.00-$133.00, representing a required minimum margin of safety of 8.5%.\n\nAs discussed in the safety ranking analysis above, Apple ranks positively on a relative basis for Volatility/Risk (rating of 8). However, the stock just made a new 52-week high last Friday (so its Pullback Indicator of 2 has a negative effect on minimum required margin of safety, which is currently at 8.5%).\nThat said, AAPL also reports earnings within the next 30 days, so that will need to be on our radar for the option analysis.\nAs shown in the chart below, the stock is still in a very strong uptrend with its 50-day moving average (blue line) trading above its 200-day moving average (red line). We now have three good levels of support to watch:\n\n50-day MA (~$130.00)\n200-day MA (~$126.00)\nRecent low in March 2021 (~$120.00)\n\n\nShort-Term View\nThere appears to be some decent technical support around our strike zone of $119.00-$133.00, which obviously makes us feel relatively good about selling a cash-secured put in the strike zone if we can.\nCash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)\nIdeally, when we sell a cash-secured put and start the Triple Income Wheel process, our put is in our \"Strike Zone\" for that stock. In our opinion, that puts the odds of long-term success in our favor.\nThe three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:\n\nPremium Yield% (or Average Monthly Yield%):Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).Assumes that the option is fully cash-secured.\nMargin-of-Safety %:Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.\nDelta:A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.\n\nNote that there is always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.\nAn investor should always be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance! The Triple Income Wheel can be adapted to suit your needs.\nNow let's look at the cash-secured put analysis for Apple. We are focused on the August monthly contract that expires on 8/20/21.\n\nWe have highlighted 3 levels of trades based on various risk profiles: Aggressive (-A-), Base (-B-), and Conservative (-C-).\nIdeally, we like to stick with our target levels for our Base portfolio:\n\nAverage Monthly Yield % (AMY%): 1.0%-1.5%\nStrike price that is in the strike zone (i.e., margin of safety above the required minimum)\nDelta < 30\n\nThe AAPL Aug 20th $135.00 put option @ ~$1.92 meets all of our criteria with an AMY% of 1.0%, a Margin-of-Safety of 7.0%, and a Delta of 22.\nAgain, based on your risk tolerance, you could choose a strike price that is more aggressive ($140.00 strike) or more conservative ($130.00 strike) than the base trade.\nDownside Considerations\nAssuming we sold the AAPL Aug20th $135.00 strike put option @ $1.92, we would collect $192.00 of premium for each option contract sold. In return for this premium, we agree (and are obligated) to buy 100 shares of AAPL stock for each contract sold at the strike price of $135.00.\nIf the stock stays above $135.00 between now and expiration (8/20/21), the option expires worthless and we keep the premium of $1.92.\nHowever,the downside of this trade comes into play if the stock closes below $135.00 on expiration (8/20/21). Since we are obligated to buy the stock at $135.00, we would have a potential unrealized capital loss on our hands (depending on how low the stock closed on expiration). We do get to keep the premium either way though, so our breakeven cost basis would be $133.08 ($135.00 - $1.92).\nAll that said, when managing the Triple Income Wheel, you should expect to take assignment (buy the stock) on 5-10% of your cash-secured put trades.\nBut when this happens, we get to move to step 3 in the diagram above and sell some covered calls on our stock position to start the income flowing again and start mitigating our risk right away.\nConclusion\nBased on our long-term and short-term views on Apple, we believe that a cash-secured put strategy makes a lot of sense right now for investors interested in a new position in the stock. The AAPL Aug 20th $135.00 put option would generate an average monthly yield of 1.0% (or 1.4% over the next 42 days) with a margin-of-safety of 7.0%.\nAssuming you could continue to roll this position every 45-60 days with similar risk/reward parameters, you could build 12%+ annualized income from Apple over the next 12 months (no bad for a stock that currently has a dividend yield under 1.0%).","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":43,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146882277,"gmtCreate":1626066430999,"gmtModify":1633930460162,"author":{"id":"4089032791443960","authorId":"4089032791443960","authorIdStr":"4089032791443960","name":"Prasanthkoni","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089032791443960"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is it on peak?&nbsp;","listText":"Is it on peak?&nbsp;","text":"Is it on peak?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146882277","repostId":"1154588051","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":27,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}