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liva
2021-08-05
南厂阴云密布,北厂多窗事发。
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liva
2021-08-04
[财迷]
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liva
2021-08-04
市场呈现多事之秋。
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liva
2021-07-31
双向暴力
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liva
2021-07-16
嚯嚯嚯,磨刀声起。
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height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>近期港股市场波动加大也使得南下资金持续净流出,截至8月3日,南下资金已连续12个交易日持续净流出港股市场,为历史最长的南下净流出</b>。具体来看,7月19日当天南下资金单日净流出17.8亿港元,此后12个交易日南下资金持续净流出,截至8月3日,12个交易日南下资金累计净流出502.4亿港元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6099cbb7d130e749d65df46979b6a15a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>从港股通持仓行业配置看,截至8月3日,金融、信息技术、可选消费、医疗保健等行业港股通持股市值大幅靠前,而公用事业、材料、能源和日常消费等行业外资持仓市值较为靠后。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e780fb918c88bb05a3b6cb60a4b0565\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"694\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>从港股通持仓市值占总市值比重来看,截至8月3日,首控集团、民众金融科技、神州控股、东岳集团、嘉年华国际、维亚生物、敏华控股、中粮家佳康、保利协鑫能源和海吉亚医疗等个股港股通持仓市值占其总市值比重较为靠前。 从港股通持股总市值来看,截至8月3日,腾讯控股、建设银行、工商银行、汇丰控股、小米集团、中国移动、美团、安踏体育、长城汽车和药明生物等个股港股通持仓总市值较为靠前。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b175e1ed183d3e09fa6656b9fc242441\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"2049\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c43bc1aaae0191e6c1491f82f5e0a781\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"2049\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","source":"zxjzzl","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>史上最长的南下净流出,说明了什么?</title>\n<style 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e1ae3d0f75bebef8011736e9031acae","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637169","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136638398","content_text":"本轮南下资金持续流出的天数和流出规模在历史上均处于十分靠前的位置,反映出当前市场情绪已经极度悲观,往后会随着短期事件性冲击影响逐渐消退,市场行情会有所好转。\n2021年7月份以来A股、港股市场指数在全球主要市场指数中表现大幅垫底,而近期港股市场波动加大也使得南下资金持续净流出,截至8月3日,南下资金已连续12个交易日持续净流出港股市场,累计净流出502亿港元,为2014年有数据以来最长的南下净流出。本文详细梳理了历史上南下资金持续净流出时间较为靠前的情况,从统计结果来看,本轮南下资金无论是持续流出的天数还是流出规模在历史上均处于十分靠前的位置,由此反映出了当前市场情绪已经极度悲观,往后看我们认为随着短期事件性冲击影响逐渐消退,市场行情会有所好转。\n2021年7月份以来A股、港股市场指数在全球主要市场指数中表现大幅垫底。具体看,7月初至今,法国CAC40指数、标普500指数、孟买SENSEX30指数累计涨幅分别为3.3%、2.9%和2.6%,在我们统计的全球主要指数中表现靠前。而上证指数和沪深300指数累计分别下跌4.0%和5.5%,恒生指数和恒生科技指数跌幅更是高达9%和18%,在我们统计的主要指数中表现大幅垫底。\n\n近期港股市场波动加大也使得南下资金持续净流出,截至8月3日,南下资金已连续12个交易日持续净流出港股市场,为历史最长的南下净流出。具体来看,7月19日当天南下资金单日净流出17.8亿港元,此后12个交易日南下资金持续净流出,截至8月3日,12个交易日南下资金累计净流出502.4亿港元。\n\n从港股通持仓行业配置看,截至8月3日,金融、信息技术、可选消费、医疗保健等行业港股通持股市值大幅靠前,而公用事业、材料、能源和日常消费等行业外资持仓市值较为靠后。\n\n从港股通持仓市值占总市值比重来看,截至8月3日,首控集团、民众金融科技、神州控股、东岳集团、嘉年华国际、维亚生物、敏华控股、中粮家佳康、保利协鑫能源和海吉亚医疗等个股港股通持仓市值占其总市值比重较为靠前。 从港股通持股总市值来看,截至8月3日,腾讯控股、建设银行、工商银行、汇丰控股、小米集团、中国移动、美团、安踏体育、长城汽车和药明生物等个股港股通持仓总市值较为靠前。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":802320434,"gmtCreate":1627720374228,"gmtModify":1627730714993,"author":{"id":"4087792920976810","authorId":"4087792920976810","name":"liva","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce0df2f7f9f4654496a206617cf0e08c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087792920976810","authorIdStr":"4087792920976810"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"双向暴力","listText":"双向暴力","text":"双向暴力","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802320434","repostId":"1154964430","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154964430","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627698043,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1154964430?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-31 10:20","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"价值重塑:中概股的估值体系可能会发生变化","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154964430","media":" 付鹏的财经世界","summary":"和外部一些投资机构电话交流后的记录:\nDIDI的事件确实是比较的突然,这个准备是不足的,但对于海外二级市场资金的影响远不如对于那些一级市场的初始参与者以及风投资金影响更大,当然海外的一些资金也比较认同","content":"<p>和外部一些投资机构电话交流后的记录:</p>\n<p>DIDI的事件确实是比较的突然,这个准备是不足的,但对于海外二级市场资金的影响远不如对于那些一级市场的初始参与者以及风投资金影响更大,当然海外的一些资金也比较认同的就是,中国在DIDI上市后很短的时间里立刻就宣布重大政策,也某种角度上减少了对于二级市场参与机构和资金的潜在风险,如果DIDI上市一年后再忽然来这么一出,那可能影响就真的比较大了;</p>\n<p>对于教育类中概股的冲击,谈不上是完全没有预期,如果说完全没有预期,要么是中国政策的推出是完全没有征兆的突发的,要么就是投资机构自己内部的Risk管理不到位,中国对于教育类企业的政策在过去的一年里已经是不断地加码的,最近风口浪尖上的新政策,都不是突发性的,基本都是循循渐进有迹可循的;</p>\n<p>对于市场中参与的资金来讲,他的一个大问题是要么完全前期就忽略了这个风险,但我觉得这个对于比较大的资金来说,这种风控失误完全忽略风险的可能性很小,事实上你从这些中概股二级市场表现也能看出来,资金在过去的半年都是在不断的减持的,也就是说,肯定是早就考虑过政策的风险并且按照公司的要求不断地进行着降低头寸的减仓;</p>\n<p>这一点在Q1季度一些资金机构透漏出了的点滴信息来看,也是吻合的,基本上都已经在对于政策作出相应的风控调仓;</p>\n<p>现在的情况其实谈不上媒体所说的国内政策突袭,资本开始不信任等这些因素,现在的调仓的底层逻辑和之前的底层逻辑是不太一样的;</p>\n<p>之前呢,资金认为中国一系列针对互联网垄断,房地产,教育,医疗,甚至是可能的医美,娱乐等政策出台的一系列的管理趋近的政策可能只是一个短暂的打压,从资金角度来看这些从严的政策本质上可能会影响到企业的营收,增长性等,但是也判断中方政策本质并不会真的破坏所谓的背后商业模式底层,基于这个逻辑,那么早期随着中国政策一点点出台,对应市场上的减仓降头还真是一点点的评估可能带来的盈利和增长的影响预估,但都并不真正的去考虑“如果最终整个商业模式的本质都发生变化的话,那么你的二级市场定价模式还能延用之前的吗?真的只是做一个简单的修正么?”</p>\n<p>此次教育双减的细节内容让资金们无法淡定的核心,就是这个问题,随着最近的政策不断的深化和完善以后,越来越多的资金开始深思的并不是推特上那种抱怨政策透明、对政策不信任等这些,深思的是中国是不是玩真的了?如果是玩真的,那核心的问题是,这种假设条件下延申的重要考量就是:整个商业模式的本质是否需要重新审视了?</p>\n<p>如果这个答案是yes的话,那么中概股的调整更重要的是在于,这不是一个简单减仓,他可能要对这一类的资产的定价方式要做一个重要的转变(从一级市场到二级市场),商业模式如果发生巨大的变化了,那整个估值和市值的定价方式就完全是不同的,如果只是一个政策的冲击,你冲击的可能是对盈利的判断,但这个还都在正常的逻辑下,但是如果你的整个商业模式都发生重大的变化了,那你可能甚至是说,整个商业模式在中国的政策目标里未来都转向一个公共服务类,甚至带有一定这个这个公益性质的行业的话,那这可不是一个简单的光盈利预期下修的问题;</p>\n<p>所以,这几天的剧烈下跌,无论是中概股还是港股市场的这些投资者在快速的做出重新的定价和反应,这和前面的下跌,本质上的原因是有着完全不同的考量,虽然都是风控减仓,但内核是完全不同的;</p>\n<p>对中国目前来讲,穿透过去资金已经迅速的接受并认定了国内政策的本质就是要对这些行业进行一个value remodeling,那这样的话,很多的支撑之前估值、市值的商业模式是要发生根本变化的,所以对于资金来说,现在是完全要对这些已经甚至是可能未来受到中国政策影响的公司要进行重新的估值体系的定价;</p>","source":"fpdcjsj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>价值重塑:中概股的估值体系可能会发生变化</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n价值重塑:中概股的估值体系可能会发生变化\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-31 10:20 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/4Prkn7NaAzDRzembCzF0TQ><strong> 付鹏的财经世界</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>和外部一些投资机构电话交流后的记录:\nDIDI的事件确实是比较的突然,这个准备是不足的,但对于海外二级市场资金的影响远不如对于那些一级市场的初始参与者以及风投资金影响更大,当然海外的一些资金也比较认同的就是,中国在DIDI上市后很短的时间里立刻就宣布重大政策,也某种角度上减少了对于二级市场参与机构和资金的潜在风险,如果DIDI上市一年后再忽然来这么一出,那可能影响就真的比较大了;\n对于教育类中概股...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/4Prkn7NaAzDRzembCzF0TQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7221d934f1008e531bdf79c8cfe0ee","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","EDU":"新东方"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/4Prkn7NaAzDRzembCzF0TQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154964430","content_text":"和外部一些投资机构电话交流后的记录:\nDIDI的事件确实是比较的突然,这个准备是不足的,但对于海外二级市场资金的影响远不如对于那些一级市场的初始参与者以及风投资金影响更大,当然海外的一些资金也比较认同的就是,中国在DIDI上市后很短的时间里立刻就宣布重大政策,也某种角度上减少了对于二级市场参与机构和资金的潜在风险,如果DIDI上市一年后再忽然来这么一出,那可能影响就真的比较大了;\n对于教育类中概股的冲击,谈不上是完全没有预期,如果说完全没有预期,要么是中国政策的推出是完全没有征兆的突发的,要么就是投资机构自己内部的Risk管理不到位,中国对于教育类企业的政策在过去的一年里已经是不断地加码的,最近风口浪尖上的新政策,都不是突发性的,基本都是循循渐进有迹可循的;\n对于市场中参与的资金来讲,他的一个大问题是要么完全前期就忽略了这个风险,但我觉得这个对于比较大的资金来说,这种风控失误完全忽略风险的可能性很小,事实上你从这些中概股二级市场表现也能看出来,资金在过去的半年都是在不断的减持的,也就是说,肯定是早就考虑过政策的风险并且按照公司的要求不断地进行着降低头寸的减仓;\n这一点在Q1季度一些资金机构透漏出了的点滴信息来看,也是吻合的,基本上都已经在对于政策作出相应的风控调仓;\n现在的情况其实谈不上媒体所说的国内政策突袭,资本开始不信任等这些因素,现在的调仓的底层逻辑和之前的底层逻辑是不太一样的;\n之前呢,资金认为中国一系列针对互联网垄断,房地产,教育,医疗,甚至是可能的医美,娱乐等政策出台的一系列的管理趋近的政策可能只是一个短暂的打压,从资金角度来看这些从严的政策本质上可能会影响到企业的营收,增长性等,但是也判断中方政策本质并不会真的破坏所谓的背后商业模式底层,基于这个逻辑,那么早期随着中国政策一点点出台,对应市场上的减仓降头还真是一点点的评估可能带来的盈利和增长的影响预估,但都并不真正的去考虑“如果最终整个商业模式的本质都发生变化的话,那么你的二级市场定价模式还能延用之前的吗?真的只是做一个简单的修正么?”\n此次教育双减的细节内容让资金们无法淡定的核心,就是这个问题,随着最近的政策不断的深化和完善以后,越来越多的资金开始深思的并不是推特上那种抱怨政策透明、对政策不信任等这些,深思的是中国是不是玩真的了?如果是玩真的,那核心的问题是,这种假设条件下延申的重要考量就是:整个商业模式的本质是否需要重新审视了?\n如果这个答案是yes的话,那么中概股的调整更重要的是在于,这不是一个简单减仓,他可能要对这一类的资产的定价方式要做一个重要的转变(从一级市场到二级市场),商业模式如果发生巨大的变化了,那整个估值和市值的定价方式就完全是不同的,如果只是一个政策的冲击,你冲击的可能是对盈利的判断,但这个还都在正常的逻辑下,但是如果你的整个商业模式都发生重大的变化了,那你可能甚至是说,整个商业模式在中国的政策目标里未来都转向一个公共服务类,甚至带有一定这个这个公益性质的行业的话,那这可不是一个简单的光盈利预期下修的问题;\n所以,这几天的剧烈下跌,无论是中概股还是港股市场的这些投资者在快速的做出重新的定价和反应,这和前面的下跌,本质上的原因是有着完全不同的考量,虽然都是风控减仓,但内核是完全不同的;\n对中国目前来讲,穿透过去资金已经迅速的接受并认定了国内政策的本质就是要对这些行业进行一个value 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