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皈依三宝
2021-07-28
党说茅台太贵族化了
跌去1.12万亿市值的贵州茅台到底怎么了？
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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n跌去1.12万亿市值的贵州茅台到底怎么了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-07-28 14:48 北京时间 <strong>界面新闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A股第一高价股贵州茅台近一周出现了罕见的连续暴跌。截至7月27日，贵州茅台报收1712.89元/股，市值相较农历鼠年末的3.27万亿，已蒸发34.25%，半年内已跌去了1.12万亿。而同期上证指数仅下跌7.49%。\n贵州茅台跑输上证指数并不常见。那么，本轮贵州茅台大跌有什么特殊原因？对于市场而言又意味着什么？\n水井坊是导火索\n7月23日水井坊发布2021年半年度报告，这家公司上半年营业收入...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aba16b4f88c90908701f4ff26fee613c","relate_stocks":{"600519":"贵州茅台"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124999114","content_text":"A股第一高价股贵州茅台近一周出现了罕见的连续暴跌。截至7月27日，贵州茅台报收1712.89元/股，市值相较农历鼠年末的3.27万亿，已蒸发34.25%，半年内已跌去了1.12万亿。而同期上证指数仅下跌7.49%。\n贵州茅台跑输上证指数并不常见。那么，本轮贵州茅台大跌有什么特殊原因？对于市场而言又意味着什么？\n水井坊是导火索\n7月23日水井坊发布2021年半年度报告，这家公司上半年营业收入18.37亿元，比上年同期增长128.44%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润3.77亿元，比上年同期增长266.01%。这份暴增的业绩被市场视为利空。自业绩公布以来，水井坊股价已经连续两天以一字板的形式跌停。\n市场将水井坊的业绩视为利空是合理的。虽然从表面上看，水井坊业绩大幅增长，但实际上公司第二季度单季度净利润为亏损。今年一季度公司净利润为4.19亿元，而半年报净利润为3.77亿元，第二季度单季度公司净利润为亏损0.42亿元。\n从营收来看，由于受疫情影响，2020年同期营收基数较低。2019年上半年水井坊营收为16.9亿元，如今18.37亿元，两年仅增长8%，这显然不符合市场预期。此外，2019年上半年水井坊净利润为3.4亿元，如今3.77亿元，两年增幅仅为10%。\n半年报“不合格”的水井坊加重了市场对白酒股的担忧。\n受2020年疫情因素影响，白酒的主要消费场景--走亲访友及聚会宴请受损严重，而作为该期间宴请消费主力的中高端白酒，受影响最为严重。此外，由于2020年前经销商已经完成铺货，销售端也已完成备货，因此抑制消费而积压的产品库存压力传导到了上游。水井坊2020年第一季度和第二季度净利润便分别下滑13%和下滑173%；区域龙头酒企古井贡酒则下滑19%和下滑17%。\n今年三季度将是白酒股面临的真正考验。受2020年下半年消费反弹、需求复苏等因素影响，彼时各酒企季度净利大增，净利润基数较高，因此下半年酒企净利增速预计将承压。\n估值回归\n大跌之后，贵州茅台估值才达到5年合理估值的上沿。贵州茅台估值中枢在33倍市盈率，其近5年主要估值在20倍至45倍之间。由此看，目前45倍市盈率的估值仍处于高位。\n\n图片来源：WIND、界面科技研究部\n高估值无法匹配贵州茅台业绩的低速增长，头部酒企近年来已呈现增速放缓态势。以今年为例，贵州茅台净利润预计增幅在15%左右，五粮液净利润增幅预计在20%左右。贵州茅台母公司茅台集团“十四五”的收入目标为2000亿元，对应年复合增速在12%左右，由此预计贵州茅台在“十四五”期间业绩增速在15%左右，和今年预计净利润增速相符。\n15%的增速配上45倍的估值，市场已开始用脚投票。沪股通显示，自7月16日起，贵州茅台在8个交易日中有6个交易日呈现资金净流出状态，合计净流出金额高达23.47亿元。其中7月27日净流出净额10.22亿元。\n\n图片来源：WIND、界面新闻研究部\n历史上茅台大跌都是相对的底部\n当贵州茅台股价上涨时，来自市场的声音便确认这是估值回归，仿佛贵州茅台代表了所有价值投资的理念，甚至诞生了以贵州茅台为代表的“茅指数”，以此表示各行业的头部价值股。而大跌面前，来自市场的声音是 “抱团瓦解”、“外资撤离”、“茅台倒了”。\n但事实上，历年来贵州茅台股价的大幅下滑，往往意味着市场接近底部。\n以周为单位，自2015年股市大调整以来，贵州茅台仅有的两次期间周跌幅超过25%，都是阶段低点。第一次是2015年5月底至8月底，贵州茅台股价下跌31.61%，对应上证指数由同期的4657点下跌至3232点，随后上证指数经历3个月反弹后又经历2个月下跌，贵州茅台并未跟随上证指数继续下跌，先于上证指数5个月见底。第二次是2018年1月初至11月底，期间贵州茅台股价下跌29.57%，对应上证指数由同期的3428点下跌至2579点，随后上证指数继续下跌，于2个月后见底，此次贵州茅台未跟随上证指数下跌，先于上证2个月见底。\n本轮受抱团股估值泡沫影响，A股优质白马股皆有较大回落，贵州茅台更是在半年时间内下跌33.65%。\n历史会重演么？","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":813,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":801942547,"gmtCreate":1627481027689,"gmtModify":1627481027689,"author":{"id":"4087560205592140","authorId":"4087560205592140","name":"皈依三宝","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"党说茅台太贵族化了","listText":"党说茅台太贵族化了","text":"党说茅台太贵族化了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801942547","repostId":"1124999114","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":813,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
