WD的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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IP属地：上海

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0勋章

2019-05-22

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 看来以后坚持做空中概股才能赚钱

2018-10-10

$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$大神能简单讲讲这货为啥涨为啥跌吗？

2020-02-14

$Viveve Medical Inc.(VIVE)$ 我站在高岗上向下望。。。

2017-02-15

$58同城(WUBA)$ 这不科学😔

2019-05-28

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 难怪猛跌📉，原来早就有消息

2018-08-06

uvxy分分钟教你做人

$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$ 不敢碰了，😫

uvxy分分钟教你做人

2020-06-02

呵呵，人家一点都不乱，游行本来就是常态

抱歉，原内容已删除

2019-05-14

$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$ 还是美股靠谱

2019-04-12

$Draper Oakwood Technology Acquisition, Inc.(RBZ)$我靠，从盈利200%到亏40%[喷血]

2017-04-18

$58同城(WUBA)$ 我就不信空58赚不到

2020-11-04

$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$兄弟们，要不咱赌一把试试？

2019-01-31

$AMD(AMD)$总算回本了，上次栽在财报上，这次不会了

2018-06-08

这心脏受不了，先撤了。

$三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$ 这过山车。。。。。

这心脏受不了，先撤了。

2019-04-16

$Achaogen Inc(AKAO)$吓唬人呗

2019-04-02

$AVEO制药公司(AVEO)$现在跑来得及吗？

2019-03-28

$Draper Oakwood Technology Acquisition, Inc.(RBZ)$我居然睡着了。。。

2019-03-01

$58同城(WUBA)$好像又错过了什么，现在起飞还来得及吗？

2019-02-01

$AMD(AMD)$撤了，不求暴富，但求稳定

2018-10-11

$金矿指数三倍做多ETF(JNUG)$12.7的本，今年能不能回本啊😯

2018-09-14

$蔚来汽车(NIO)$喂，来。看老子不玩死你！

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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Inc.(APTX)$总算等到今天","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/303580319","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":979017355,"gmtCreate":1597932361177,"gmtModify":1704217315540,"author":{"id":"39518150190083","authorId":"39518150190083","name":"WD","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"39518150190083","idStr":"39518150190083"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LABD\">$Direxion每日三倍做空标普生物(LABD)$</a>大家注意要合股了[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$</a>感觉要被玩死[难过]&nbsp;","text":"$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$感觉要被玩死[难过]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/944433742","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2549,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":958907458,"gmtCreate":1591110098074,"gmtModify":1704194441130,"author":{"id":"39518150190083","authorId":"39518150190083","name":"WD","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"39518150190083","idStr":"39518150190083"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"呵呵，人家一点都不乱，游行本来就是常态","listText":"呵呵，人家一点都不乱，游行本来就是常态","text":"呵呵，人家一点都不乱，游行本来就是常态","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/958907458","repostId":"1178958338","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178958338","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国最具影响力的财经新闻媒体《财经》携手道琼斯媒体集团，引入百年历史的《巴伦》（Barron's）独家内容，打造涵盖全球金融信息、市场动态、行业分析、公司研究及理财顾问评估的全球投资平台。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"巴伦周刊","id":"1063202233","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab"},"pubTimestamp":1591086007,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178958338?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-06-02 16:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国乱成一锅粥，股市为啥还在涨？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178958338","media":"巴伦周刊","summary":"华尔街在看待股价时过滤掉了大部分新闻，股市更关注的是上市公司未来的盈利情况。\n5月25日美国阵亡将士纪念日当天，明尼苏达州非裔男子乔治·弗洛伊德(George Floyd)因涉嫌使用假币被警察逮捕，警","content":"<p><span>华尔街在看待股价时过滤掉了大部分新闻，股市更关注的是上市公司未来的盈利情况。</span></p>\n<p><span>5月25日美国阵亡将士纪念日当天，明尼苏达州非裔男子乔治·弗洛伊德(George Floyd)因涉嫌使用假币被警察逮捕，警察在此期间的暴力执法行为导致弗洛伊德不幸窒息身亡，之后美国多个城市爆发反对种族歧视的示威活动。</span></p>\n<p><span>在接下来的几天里，示威活动愈演愈烈，美国多地出现暴乱。美国总统特朗普上周末称，他正在派遣“上千名全副武装的士兵、军事人员和执法人员来阻止骚乱、抢劫、破坏、袭击和肆意破坏财产的行为。”特朗普在白宫玫瑰园发表讲话还表示，华盛顿将从傍晚7点开始实施宵禁。特朗普周一（6月1日）和几个州的州长进行了视频通话，他呼吁各州加大力度平息暴乱。据CBS News报道，特朗普说：“你们必须获得控制权，如果无法控制局面你们就是在浪费时间。”据美联社报道，特朗普对州长们说：“你们大多数人都太软弱，必须逮捕暴徒。”</span></p>\n<p><span>在美国国内乱成一锅粥之际，美国股市的反应却很平淡。6月1日，道指收盘上涨0.36%，收于25475.02点；标普500指数上涨0.38%，收于3055.73点；纳指上涨0.66点，收于9552.05点。这是为什么？</span></p>\n<p>股市与社会动荡“脱节”现象很常见</p>\n<p><span>其实从历史上来看，美国股市对社会动荡“无动于衷”这种现象并不少见。以1963年肯尼迪(JFK)总统遇刺、1965年阿拉巴马州塞尔玛（Selma）的民权游行、1967年华盛顿发生的大规模反越战示威(Vietnam)、1968年马丁-路德·金（Dr. King）遇刺和1992年因殴打非裔男子罗德尼·金(Rodney King)而被捕的白人警察最终被无罪释放引发的洛杉矶暴乱为例，在上述任何事件发生后的几个月里，美国股市的波动性都没有明显上升。实际上，</span><span><b>标普500指数在这些事件发生的当年都累计上涨，不包括股息的年涨幅在4%到20%之间。</b></span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4826ce8f07dbea9755aa44e8470950d1\" tg-width=\"338\" tg-height=\"421\"></p>\n<p><span>投资研究公司New Constructs首席执行官大卫·特雷纳(David Trainer)周一在研报中写道：“社会动荡对股市的长期影响其实很小”。</span></p>\n<p><span>金融服务公司Edward Jones的内拉·理查森(Nela Richardson)称，股市一直更关注美联储和联邦政府为经济提供的前所未见的支持措施的效果，“而不是美国目前面临的短期挑战，无论是经济方面的挑战（例如二季度GDP下滑）还是政治方面的挑战（例如大选年美国国内的两极分化）。”</span></p>\n<p><span>从一个方面来说，股市缺乏反应的现象并不令人意外：</span><span><b>华尔街在看待股价时过滤掉了大部分新闻，股市更关注的是上市公司未来的盈利情况。</b></span></p>\n<p><span>此外，一些人认为疫情给经济造成的最严重打击已经结束，5月份美国消费者信心的反弹就反映了这一点。世界大企业联合会公布的数据显示，5月份消费者信心指数从4月份修正后的85.7上升至86.6。</span></p>\n<p><span>虽然数据升幅不大，没有达到一些经济学家的预期，但消费者信心反弹似乎标志着经济重启的第一个里程碑，给人们带来了一些希望，让人们认为消费者支出的回升速度要比之前担心的快一些，有利于推动美国经济复苏。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>股市或难以进一步上涨</b></span></p>\n<p><span>但美国的疫情形势依然严峻，在美国重启经济之后就已经出现了新增感染病例。</span><span><b>一些分析师认为，此次暴乱可能会导致疫情再次升级，进而破坏美国为重启经济所做的努力，并可能导致更多人失业，进一步加剧社会矛盾。</b></span></p>\n<p><span>加皇银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管卡尔·瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)周一称，一些人担心“大规模集会可能引发疫情二次暴发，如果出现这样的情况，经济重启将暂停。”</span></p>\n<p><span>尽管最近几周股市没有受到表现糟糕的失业数据太大影响，但理查森表示应关注本周四公布的最新首次申请失业救济人数。她说：“如果有迹象显示暂时失业现象开始变成长期失业的话，那么股市可能会受到影响。”</span></p>\n<p><span>Fundstrat执行合伙人托马斯·李(Thomas Lee)在周一发电子邮件中说：“全国范围内的抗议活动实际上等于取消了居家隔离令”，</span><span><b>感染率可能上升是一个新的风险因素，就算股市目前仍在上涨，这也是投资者应该考虑到的一个风险。</b></span></p>\n<p><span>Avatrade首席市场分析师纳伊姆·阿斯拉姆(Naeem Aslam)在周一发布的研报中说：“我们认为持续不断的抗议和骚乱确实对美国金融市场构成了威胁，因为这会削弱本已疲弱的投资者信心。”</span></p>\n<p><span>奥本海默(Oppenheimer)首席投资策略师约翰·斯托尔茨<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FLS\">福斯</a>(John Stoltzfus)说：“投资者需要权衡上述所有因素，以及未来公布的经济数据，来判断股市下一步将走向何方。此外，投资者还要关注接下的大选动态。”</span></p>\n<p><span>在美国总统大选临近之际，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>证券(UBS Securities)日本地区首席投资官青木(Daiju Aoki)指出：“疫情和暴乱导致特朗普的支持率下降，拜登赢得美国总统大选的可能性越来越大，但是围绕这一点以及拜登将选择谁担任副总统还存在诸多不确定性。就算拜登获胜，美国和中国之间的技术之争也可能影响股市。虽然</span><span><b>我们认为美国股市或许从目前水平进一步走高变得越来越困难，</b></span><span>但与此同时，我们也预计股市不会出现大幅下跌，标普500指数未来可能会呈现区间波动。”</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国乱成一锅粥，股市为啥还在涨？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国乱成一锅粥，股市为啥还在涨？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1063202233\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">巴伦周刊 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-06-02 16:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><span>华尔街在看待股价时过滤掉了大部分新闻，股市更关注的是上市公司未来的盈利情况。</span></p>\n<p><span>5月25日美国阵亡将士纪念日当天，明尼苏达州非裔男子乔治·弗洛伊德(George Floyd)因涉嫌使用假币被警察逮捕，警察在此期间的暴力执法行为导致弗洛伊德不幸窒息身亡，之后美国多个城市爆发反对种族歧视的示威活动。</span></p>\n<p><span>在接下来的几天里，示威活动愈演愈烈，美国多地出现暴乱。美国总统特朗普上周末称，他正在派遣“上千名全副武装的士兵、军事人员和执法人员来阻止骚乱、抢劫、破坏、袭击和肆意破坏财产的行为。”特朗普在白宫玫瑰园发表讲话还表示，华盛顿将从傍晚7点开始实施宵禁。特朗普周一（6月1日）和几个州的州长进行了视频通话，他呼吁各州加大力度平息暴乱。据CBS News报道，特朗普说：“你们必须获得控制权，如果无法控制局面你们就是在浪费时间。”据美联社报道，特朗普对州长们说：“你们大多数人都太软弱，必须逮捕暴徒。”</span></p>\n<p><span>在美国国内乱成一锅粥之际，美国股市的反应却很平淡。6月1日，道指收盘上涨0.36%，收于25475.02点；标普500指数上涨0.38%，收于3055.73点；纳指上涨0.66点，收于9552.05点。这是为什么？</span></p>\n<p>股市与社会动荡“脱节”现象很常见</p>\n<p><span>其实从历史上来看，美国股市对社会动荡“无动于衷”这种现象并不少见。以1963年肯尼迪(JFK)总统遇刺、1965年阿拉巴马州塞尔玛（Selma）的民权游行、1967年华盛顿发生的大规模反越战示威(Vietnam)、1968年马丁-路德·金（Dr. King）遇刺和1992年因殴打非裔男子罗德尼·金(Rodney King)而被捕的白人警察最终被无罪释放引发的洛杉矶暴乱为例，在上述任何事件发生后的几个月里，美国股市的波动性都没有明显上升。实际上，</span><span><b>标普500指数在这些事件发生的当年都累计上涨，不包括股息的年涨幅在4%到20%之间。</b></span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4826ce8f07dbea9755aa44e8470950d1\" tg-width=\"338\" tg-height=\"421\"></p>\n<p><span>投资研究公司New Constructs首席执行官大卫·特雷纳(David Trainer)周一在研报中写道：“社会动荡对股市的长期影响其实很小”。</span></p>\n<p><span>金融服务公司Edward Jones的内拉·理查森(Nela Richardson)称，股市一直更关注美联储和联邦政府为经济提供的前所未见的支持措施的效果，“而不是美国目前面临的短期挑战，无论是经济方面的挑战（例如二季度GDP下滑）还是政治方面的挑战（例如大选年美国国内的两极分化）。”</span></p>\n<p><span>从一个方面来说，股市缺乏反应的现象并不令人意外：</span><span><b>华尔街在看待股价时过滤掉了大部分新闻，股市更关注的是上市公司未来的盈利情况。</b></span></p>\n<p><span>此外，一些人认为疫情给经济造成的最严重打击已经结束，5月份美国消费者信心的反弹就反映了这一点。世界大企业联合会公布的数据显示，5月份消费者信心指数从4月份修正后的85.7上升至86.6。</span></p>\n<p><span>虽然数据升幅不大，没有达到一些经济学家的预期，但消费者信心反弹似乎标志着经济重启的第一个里程碑，给人们带来了一些希望，让人们认为消费者支出的回升速度要比之前担心的快一些，有利于推动美国经济复苏。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>股市或难以进一步上涨</b></span></p>\n<p><span>但美国的疫情形势依然严峻，在美国重启经济之后就已经出现了新增感染病例。</span><span><b>一些分析师认为，此次暴乱可能会导致疫情再次升级，进而破坏美国为重启经济所做的努力，并可能导致更多人失业，进一步加剧社会矛盾。</b></span></p>\n<p><span>加皇银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管卡尔·瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)周一称，一些人担心“大规模集会可能引发疫情二次暴发，如果出现这样的情况，经济重启将暂停。”</span></p>\n<p><span>尽管最近几周股市没有受到表现糟糕的失业数据太大影响，但理查森表示应关注本周四公布的最新首次申请失业救济人数。她说：“如果有迹象显示暂时失业现象开始变成长期失业的话，那么股市可能会受到影响。”</span></p>\n<p><span>Fundstrat执行合伙人托马斯·李(Thomas Lee)在周一发电子邮件中说：“全国范围内的抗议活动实际上等于取消了居家隔离令”，</span><span><b>感染率可能上升是一个新的风险因素，就算股市目前仍在上涨，这也是投资者应该考虑到的一个风险。</b></span></p>\n<p><span>Avatrade首席市场分析师纳伊姆·阿斯拉姆(Naeem Aslam)在周一发布的研报中说：“我们认为持续不断的抗议和骚乱确实对美国金融市场构成了威胁，因为这会削弱本已疲弱的投资者信心。”</span></p>\n<p><span>奥本海默(Oppenheimer)首席投资策略师约翰·斯托尔茨<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FLS\">福斯</a>(John Stoltzfus)说：“投资者需要权衡上述所有因素，以及未来公布的经济数据，来判断股市下一步将走向何方。此外，投资者还要关注接下的大选动态。”</span></p>\n<p><span>在美国总统大选临近之际，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>证券(UBS Securities)日本地区首席投资官青木(Daiju Aoki)指出：“疫情和暴乱导致特朗普的支持率下降，拜登赢得美国总统大选的可能性越来越大，但是围绕这一点以及拜登将选择谁担任副总统还存在诸多不确定性。就算拜登获胜，美国和中国之间的技术之争也可能影响股市。虽然</span><span><b>我们认为美国股市或许从目前水平进一步走高变得越来越困难，</b></span><span>但与此同时，我们也预计股市不会出现大幅下跌，标普500指数未来可能会呈现区间波动。”</span></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8effccd1ec9cd7dcf99c09781659ff15","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178958338","content_text":"华尔街在看待股价时过滤掉了大部分新闻，股市更关注的是上市公司未来的盈利情况。\n5月25日美国阵亡将士纪念日当天，明尼苏达州非裔男子乔治·弗洛伊德(George Floyd)因涉嫌使用假币被警察逮捕，警察在此期间的暴力执法行为导致弗洛伊德不幸窒息身亡，之后美国多个城市爆发反对种族歧视的示威活动。\n在接下来的几天里，示威活动愈演愈烈，美国多地出现暴乱。美国总统特朗普上周末称，他正在派遣“上千名全副武装的士兵、军事人员和执法人员来阻止骚乱、抢劫、破坏、袭击和肆意破坏财产的行为。”特朗普在白宫玫瑰园发表讲话还表示，华盛顿将从傍晚7点开始实施宵禁。特朗普周一（6月1日）和几个州的州长进行了视频通话，他呼吁各州加大力度平息暴乱。据CBS News报道，特朗普说：“你们必须获得控制权，如果无法控制局面你们就是在浪费时间。”据美联社报道，特朗普对州长们说：“你们大多数人都太软弱，必须逮捕暴徒。”\n在美国国内乱成一锅粥之际，美国股市的反应却很平淡。6月1日，道指收盘上涨0.36%，收于25475.02点；标普500指数上涨0.38%，收于3055.73点；纳指上涨0.66点，收于9552.05点。这是为什么？\n股市与社会动荡“脱节”现象很常见\n其实从历史上来看，美国股市对社会动荡“无动于衷”这种现象并不少见。以1963年肯尼迪(JFK)总统遇刺、1965年阿拉巴马州塞尔玛（Selma）的民权游行、1967年华盛顿发生的大规模反越战示威(Vietnam)、1968年马丁-路德·金（Dr. King）遇刺和1992年因殴打非裔男子罗德尼·金(Rodney King)而被捕的白人警察最终被无罪释放引发的洛杉矶暴乱为例，在上述任何事件发生后的几个月里，美国股市的波动性都没有明显上升。实际上，标普500指数在这些事件发生的当年都累计上涨，不包括股息的年涨幅在4%到20%之间。\n\n投资研究公司New Constructs首席执行官大卫·特雷纳(David Trainer)周一在研报中写道：“社会动荡对股市的长期影响其实很小”。\n金融服务公司Edward Jones的内拉·理查森(Nela Richardson)称，股市一直更关注美联储和联邦政府为经济提供的前所未见的支持措施的效果，“而不是美国目前面临的短期挑战，无论是经济方面的挑战（例如二季度GDP下滑）还是政治方面的挑战（例如大选年美国国内的两极分化）。”\n从一个方面来说，股市缺乏反应的现象并不令人意外：华尔街在看待股价时过滤掉了大部分新闻，股市更关注的是上市公司未来的盈利情况。\n此外，一些人认为疫情给经济造成的最严重打击已经结束，5月份美国消费者信心的反弹就反映了这一点。世界大企业联合会公布的数据显示，5月份消费者信心指数从4月份修正后的85.7上升至86.6。\n虽然数据升幅不大，没有达到一些经济学家的预期，但消费者信心反弹似乎标志着经济重启的第一个里程碑，给人们带来了一些希望，让人们认为消费者支出的回升速度要比之前担心的快一些，有利于推动美国经济复苏。\n股市或难以进一步上涨\n但美国的疫情形势依然严峻，在美国重启经济之后就已经出现了新增感染病例。一些分析师认为，此次暴乱可能会导致疫情再次升级，进而破坏美国为重启经济所做的努力，并可能导致更多人失业，进一步加剧社会矛盾。\n加皇银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管卡尔·瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)周一称，一些人担心“大规模集会可能引发疫情二次暴发，如果出现这样的情况，经济重启将暂停。”\n尽管最近几周股市没有受到表现糟糕的失业数据太大影响，但理查森表示应关注本周四公布的最新首次申请失业救济人数。她说：“如果有迹象显示暂时失业现象开始变成长期失业的话，那么股市可能会受到影响。”\nFundstrat执行合伙人托马斯·李(Thomas Lee)在周一发电子邮件中说：“全国范围内的抗议活动实际上等于取消了居家隔离令”，感染率可能上升是一个新的风险因素，就算股市目前仍在上涨，这也是投资者应该考虑到的一个风险。\nAvatrade首席市场分析师纳伊姆·阿斯拉姆(Naeem Aslam)在周一发布的研报中说：“我们认为持续不断的抗议和骚乱确实对美国金融市场构成了威胁，因为这会削弱本已疲弱的投资者信心。”\n奥本海默(Oppenheimer)首席投资策略师约翰·斯托尔茨福斯(John Stoltzfus)说：“投资者需要权衡上述所有因素，以及未来公布的经济数据，来判断股市下一步将走向何方。此外，投资者还要关注接下的大选动态。”\n在美国总统大选临近之际，瑞银证券(UBS Securities)日本地区首席投资官青木(Daiju Aoki)指出：“疫情和暴乱导致特朗普的支持率下降，拜登赢得美国总统大选的可能性越来越大，但是围绕这一点以及拜登将选择谁担任副总统还存在诸多不确定性。就算拜登获胜，美国和中国之间的技术之争也可能影响股市。虽然我们认为美国股市或许从目前水平进一步走高变得越来越困难，但与此同时，我们也预计股市不会出现大幅下跌，标普500指数未来可能会呈现区间波动。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1802,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":924647568,"gmtCreate":1588342764654,"gmtModify":1704367458011,"author":{"id":"39518150190083","authorId":"39518150190083","name":"WD","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"39518150190083","idStr":"39518150190083"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$</a>想问问各位最近有在老虎或者其它券商出金（中国大陆）的吗？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$</a>想问问各位最近有在老虎或者其它券商出金（中国大陆）的吗？","text":"$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$想问问各位最近有在老虎或者其它券商出金（中国大陆）的吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/924647568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2056,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":967963569,"gmtCreate":1584524608851,"gmtModify":1704354610901,"author":{"id":"39518150190083","authorId":"39518150190083","name":"WD","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"39518150190083","idStr":"39518150190083"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$</a>可以开始空了吧[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$</a>可以开始空了吧[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$可以开始空了吧[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967963569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":965557972,"gmtCreate":1584025826296,"gmtModify":1704352679086,"author":{"id":"39518150190083","authorId":"39518150190083","name":"WD","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"39518150190083","idStr":"39518150190083"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"别闹了，08年有这样？","listText":"别闹了，08年有这样？","text":"别闹了，08年有这样？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/965557972","repostId":"2018575941","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2018575941","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1584018982,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2018575941?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-12 21:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"欧央行称现在像极了2008年，那年3月有多“恐怖”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2018575941","media":"金融界网站 ","summary":"2008年金融危机，已经成了全球政策制定者们的一个参考依据。","content":"<p>2019新冠疫情在全球迅速爆发，原油市场黑天鹅再次袭击全球市场疲弱的神经。欧洲央行行长拉加德甚至在本周三警告称，如果不采取紧急措施，欧洲将面临如同2008年一般的大型危机。</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2020/03/cms_20200312204816429.jpg\" /></p><p>当地时间3月11日，拉加德在一场会议上向欧盟官员们表示，她的预测可能很快就会得到验证。她还表明，欧洲央行将最快在本周内采取行动，政策制定者正在研究本周会议上可以动用的所有工具，特别是可以提供“超低成本”资金以及确保流动性和信贷不会枯竭的工具。</p><p>拉加德在2008年金融危机期间是法国财长，全程参与了应对危机的决策过程和救市计划，是欧洲应对金融危机的领袖人物。其言论举足轻重。</p><p>无独有偶，宣布紧急降息50BP的英国央行卡尼也在本周三的新闻发布会上也表达了相似的观点，他表示，如果全球央行们采取针对性的支持措施，没有理由认为此次情况会如2008年的情况那样糟糕。言外之意，如果全球的货币政策制定者们没有采取有效的采取针对性支持措施，那么2008年的危机很有可能重演。</p><p>简而言之，2008年金融危机，已经成了全球政策制定者们的一个参考依据。</p><p>12年前与现在究竟有何异同？</p><p>2008年的金融危机由美国次贷危机引起，随后蔓延至全球，市场大跌，经济遭受重创。12年后的今天，2019新型冠状病毒在全世界多个国家同时爆发，打击经济复苏，造成巨大的市场冲击。</p><p>从经济数据上看，无论是2008年还是2020年，全球经济都遭受了巨大冲击。2008年，全球经济因信贷收缩，经济活动大受打击，全球PMI数据几乎跌近40，远远位于枯荣线之下。</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2020/03/cms_20200312204818309.jpg\" /></p><p>2020年，受新冠病毒爆发影响，多个国家因此宣布停工停产，且一切还在进行中，经济损失暂时还难以估量。作为全球经济的景气指标，原油已经大跌不休，在沙特和俄罗斯”斗法之前，布油已经年初的71美元跌至45美元。</p><p>市场表现方面，2008年全球主要股市全线大跌，无一例外。</p><p>当年欧美国家股市以及中国香港股市均出现大幅回调，其后美国、德国、英国证券市场不约而同创出历史新高。</p><p>A股市场在危机发生前，经历了一轮大牛市。上证指数2007年10月份创出历史高点6124点，在2006年和2007年，A股的涨幅分别达到130.43%和96.66%。不过次贷危机爆发后，下跌幅度也最深，跌至2008年10月份的1664点，跌幅高达73%。</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2020/03/cms_20200312204820298.jpg\" /></p><p>2020年，全球市场受到冲击，但情况与2008年有所不同。</p><p>目前来看，黄金大涨，原油大跌。发达国家市场跌幅较大，特别是疫情还比较严重的欧洲国家。而疫情发现较早，且得到有效控制，情况有明显好转的亚洲市场，市场表现要好得多。其中，中国创业板指数涨幅最大，超过传统避险资产黄金的表现。深圳成指表现到目前为止，涨幅与黄金年初至今涨幅比较接近。</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2020/03/cms_20200312204822322.jpg\" /></p><p>从货币政策方面看，两次全球央行联手降息，刺激经济。</p><p>不同的是，各国央行的政策空间远远不如2008年。以英国央行为例，2008年金融危机发生之前，利率为5.75%。而在2020年3月紧急降息50bp之前，利率只有0.75%，政策空间简直可用天壤地别来形容。</p><p>美联储也是如此，2008年1月22日，美国联邦基准利率为4.25%。而在2020年3月紧急降息之前，美联储基准利率为1.75%。欧洲和日本央行已经实行负利率，货币政策可用工具已经非常有限。</p><p>第四，公司经营方面，2020年比2008年要好得多。</p><p>2008年，贝尔斯登、雷曼等跨国大公司倒闭，对全球经济信心造成巨大打击。2020年，尽管多项展会和活动会议取消，大公司如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>等开始预警营收受到疫情影响减少，但还没有出现大规模的破产潮。</p><p>分析认为，出现这样不同现象，是因为导致危机出现的原因不同。2008年金融危机是由于美国次级贷款长期日积月累所致，是系统性的根源问题。</p><p>早期次级房屋信贷危机所引发的。英国的主流银行北岩银行是首批遭遇冲击的对象之一，该行借不到额外资金来偿还2007年9月中旬产生的到期债务。由于没有持续现金注入，其所经营的高杠杆性质的业务无法持续，最终导致其被接管。这种状况很快也在全球其他银行和金融机构中出现，最终形成多米诺牌效应，导致一批耳熟能详的大公司、大银行破产或者被并购。</p><p>而2020年的困境则是新型冠状病毒爆发，是突发事件，对经济冲击理论上来说是短期的，而且是一次性的。</p><p>2008年3月及以后发生了什么？</p><p>2008年3月12日，贝尔斯登还在媒体上安抚投资者情绪，称公司目前流动性充足，并预计公司将在第一财季实现盈利。2008年3月18日，美联储降息75bp，将利率降至2.25%。金融危机已经拉开序幕。</p><p>同年3月24日，北京奥运会圣火在希腊奥林匹亚成功点燃，火炬接力传递仪式正式拉开序幕。</p><p>2008年3月之后，全球金融危机全面爆发：贝尔斯登被<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>收购、雷曼破产、美联储降息至0.25%、英国央行降息至0.25%……</p><p>在美国，Timothy Geithner（时任纽约联储主席）、Ben Bernanke（时任美联储主席）和Henry Paulson （时任美财政部长）组成了救市三人组。他们挽救了美国的大银行，”大而不能到“的说法也由此诞生。</p><p>10年后，Henry Paulson 和Ben Bernanke都认为，一旦严重的金融危机发生，FDIC（联邦存款保险公司）和财政部外汇稳定基金并没有足够的自由度（权力）来应对。美联储方面，利率仍然很低，限制了央行在危机爆发时的作为空间。同时，“估值压力上升”（从股票到住宅的估值等）和极端的消费者债务水平，都给“救市”增加压力。</p><p>“救市三人组”都承认，在金融危机时，他们犯了一个错误，那就是向大银行们注入大量资金。</p><p>全球市场在2020年会不会重蹈2008年的覆辙？未必，但当前大央行们弹药严重不足了。</p><p>正如达里奥近期的文章所言：欧洲和日本，货币政策实际上已经没有空间，因此很难想象纯粹的货币政策将如何发挥作用。在欧洲，在这样的政治环境下，财政政策刺激能否起到作用有待观察……，你需要呵护的、最重要的资产是你自己和你的家人。至于投资，我希望你能够预料最坏的情况，但让自己远离最坏的结果。</p>","source":"jinrongjie_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>欧央行称现在像极了2008年，那年3月有多“恐怖”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n欧央行称现在像极了2008年，那年3月有多“恐怖”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-12 21:16 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2020/03/12204829012018.shtml><strong>金融界网站 </strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2019新冠疫情在全球迅速爆发，原油市场黑天鹅再次袭击全球市场疲弱的神经。欧洲央行行长拉加德甚至在本周三警告称，如果不采取紧急措施，欧洲将面临如同2008年一般的大型危机。当地时间3月11日，拉加德在一场会议上向欧盟官员们表示，她的预测可能很快就会得到验证。她还表明，欧洲央行将最快在本周内采取行动，政策制定者正在研究本周会议上可以动用的所有工具，特别是可以提供“超低成本”资金以及确保流动性和信贷...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2020/03/12204829012018.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d632e152ffd963cb453354c318ae39c","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2020/03/12204829012018.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2018575941","content_text":"2019新冠疫情在全球迅速爆发，原油市场黑天鹅再次袭击全球市场疲弱的神经。欧洲央行行长拉加德甚至在本周三警告称，如果不采取紧急措施，欧洲将面临如同2008年一般的大型危机。当地时间3月11日，拉加德在一场会议上向欧盟官员们表示，她的预测可能很快就会得到验证。她还表明，欧洲央行将最快在本周内采取行动，政策制定者正在研究本周会议上可以动用的所有工具，特别是可以提供“超低成本”资金以及确保流动性和信贷不会枯竭的工具。拉加德在2008年金融危机期间是法国财长，全程参与了应对危机的决策过程和救市计划，是欧洲应对金融危机的领袖人物。其言论举足轻重。无独有偶，宣布紧急降息50BP的英国央行卡尼也在本周三的新闻发布会上也表达了相似的观点，他表示，如果全球央行们采取针对性的支持措施，没有理由认为此次情况会如2008年的情况那样糟糕。言外之意，如果全球的货币政策制定者们没有采取有效的采取针对性支持措施，那么2008年的危机很有可能重演。简而言之，2008年金融危机，已经成了全球政策制定者们的一个参考依据。12年前与现在究竟有何异同？2008年的金融危机由美国次贷危机引起，随后蔓延至全球，市场大跌，经济遭受重创。12年后的今天，2019新型冠状病毒在全世界多个国家同时爆发，打击经济复苏，造成巨大的市场冲击。从经济数据上看，无论是2008年还是2020年，全球经济都遭受了巨大冲击。2008年，全球经济因信贷收缩，经济活动大受打击，全球PMI数据几乎跌近40，远远位于枯荣线之下。2020年，受新冠病毒爆发影响，多个国家因此宣布停工停产，且一切还在进行中，经济损失暂时还难以估量。作为全球经济的景气指标，原油已经大跌不休，在沙特和俄罗斯”斗法之前，布油已经年初的71美元跌至45美元。市场表现方面，2008年全球主要股市全线大跌，无一例外。当年欧美国家股市以及中国香港股市均出现大幅回调，其后美国、德国、英国证券市场不约而同创出历史新高。A股市场在危机发生前，经历了一轮大牛市。上证指数2007年10月份创出历史高点6124点，在2006年和2007年，A股的涨幅分别达到130.43%和96.66%。不过次贷危机爆发后，下跌幅度也最深，跌至2008年10月份的1664点，跌幅高达73%。2020年，全球市场受到冲击，但情况与2008年有所不同。目前来看，黄金大涨，原油大跌。发达国家市场跌幅较大，特别是疫情还比较严重的欧洲国家。而疫情发现较早，且得到有效控制，情况有明显好转的亚洲市场，市场表现要好得多。其中，中国创业板指数涨幅最大，超过传统避险资产黄金的表现。深圳成指表现到目前为止，涨幅与黄金年初至今涨幅比较接近。从货币政策方面看，两次全球央行联手降息，刺激经济。不同的是，各国央行的政策空间远远不如2008年。以英国央行为例，2008年金融危机发生之前，利率为5.75%。而在2020年3月紧急降息50bp之前，利率只有0.75%，政策空间简直可用天壤地别来形容。美联储也是如此，2008年1月22日，美国联邦基准利率为4.25%。而在2020年3月紧急降息之前，美联储基准利率为1.75%。欧洲和日本央行已经实行负利率，货币政策可用工具已经非常有限。第四，公司经营方面，2020年比2008年要好得多。2008年，贝尔斯登、雷曼等跨国大公司倒闭，对全球经济信心造成巨大打击。2020年，尽管多项展会和活动会议取消，大公司如微软和苹果等开始预警营收受到疫情影响减少，但还没有出现大规模的破产潮。分析认为，出现这样不同现象，是因为导致危机出现的原因不同。2008年金融危机是由于美国次级贷款长期日积月累所致，是系统性的根源问题。早期次级房屋信贷危机所引发的。英国的主流银行北岩银行是首批遭遇冲击的对象之一，该行借不到额外资金来偿还2007年9月中旬产生的到期债务。由于没有持续现金注入，其所经营的高杠杆性质的业务无法持续，最终导致其被接管。这种状况很快也在全球其他银行和金融机构中出现，最终形成多米诺牌效应，导致一批耳熟能详的大公司、大银行破产或者被并购。而2020年的困境则是新型冠状病毒爆发，是突发事件，对经济冲击理论上来说是短期的，而且是一次性的。2008年3月及以后发生了什么？2008年3月12日，贝尔斯登还在媒体上安抚投资者情绪，称公司目前流动性充足，并预计公司将在第一财季实现盈利。2008年3月18日，美联储降息75bp，将利率降至2.25%。金融危机已经拉开序幕。同年3月24日，北京奥运会圣火在希腊奥林匹亚成功点燃，火炬接力传递仪式正式拉开序幕。2008年3月之后，全球金融危机全面爆发：贝尔斯登被摩根大通收购、雷曼破产、美联储降息至0.25%、英国央行降息至0.25%……在美国，Timothy 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