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田可
2023-08-04
瞎编得离谱了
抱歉，原内容已删除
田可
2023-04-11
误导。微软的首要目标明显是扩大云计算的份额。
抱歉，原内容已删除
田可
2021-11-09
$奇景光电(HIMX)$
可以改名叫“奇葩光电”吗？
田可
2021-01-11
**文章
断供的后果出现了！新正式消息传来，台积电也没跑了
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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[贱笑]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":332683191,"gmtCreate":1610378670913,"gmtModify":1703743976723,"author":{"id":"36647787590447","authorId":"36647787590447","name":"田可","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36647787590447","authorIdStr":"36647787590447"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"**文章","listText":"**文章","text":"**文章","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/332683191","repostId":"2102996384","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2102996384","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1610356721,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2102996384?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-01-11 17:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"断供的后果出现了！新正式消息传来，台积电也没跑了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2102996384","media":"老王哥","summary":"但如今看来，台积电刘德音太过于自信，因为新消息正式传来，断供的后果出现了，台积电也没跑了。首先，台积电全年营收没有到达预期。最新的消息称，台积电12月份营收为41.亿美元，环比下降 6%，同比增长 13.6%。据悉，台积电先是宣布在美国投资120亿美元建设5nm芯片的生产线，随后有消息称，台积电将会在日本建设先进的封测厂。最后，三星向台积电全面开火。新正式消息传来，台积电也没跑了。","content":"<html><body><article><p>在芯片技术方面，美国掌握了大量的技术和专利，即便是ASML、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>等这样的半导体巨头，也采用了不少美国技术。</p><p>也正是因为如此，美国才能“挟技术以令众多半导体芯片企业”，在没有许可的情况下，均不能自由<span>出货</span>。</p><p>对于美国修改规则，华为余承东则表示，美国一旦打开<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQC.UK\">潘多拉</a>魔盒，全球产业链都将受到损失。</p><p>一方面是因为芯片产业全球化已经形成，任何一个环节出现问题，整个产业都会受到影响；另外一方面是华为需求巨大，毕竟华为每年的营收都高达万亿元左右。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210111172651668v173qrh42ynjubl\"/><p>意外的是，台积电刘德音却表示，美国修改规则，虽然导致台积电失去了超360亿元的订单，但这不会给台积电带来影响，因为空出的产能有其它厂商的订单填补。</p><p>还有就是，台积电还发布消息称，空出来的产能基本上瓜分完毕，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>是5nm芯片的最大客户，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>则是7nm芯片的最大客户，2021年的产能也被预定空了。</p><p>但如今看来，台积电刘德音太过于自信，因为新消息正式传来，断供的后果出现了，台积电也没跑了。情况是这样的。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210111172652696v173zb7ezg5ccc2\"/><p>首先，台积电全年营收没有到达预期。</p><p>据悉，之前台积电曾放出消息称，2020年的营收预计将达到454.2亿美元，较2019年的346.68亿美元增加107.52亿美元，同比增长率将达到31%。</p><p>但台积电的实际营收并没有这么高。</p><p>最新的消息称，台积电12月份营收为41.亿美元，环比下降 6%，同比增长 13.6%。</p><p>另外，台积电全年营收为1.34万亿新台币，同比增长25.2%，与预期的同比增长31%，还有与一段差距的。</p><p>最主要的是，台积电在9月中旬不能自由出货后，其营收都在环比下跌。</p><p>数据显示，台积电9月的营收创下新高，约为45.6亿美元，而10月份、11月份、12月份的营收分别是41.78美元 、44.6亿美元、41亿美元。</p><p>也就是说，相比9月份的营收，从10月份开始，台积电的营收都在下滑，这也是在失去华为订单后。</p><p>据了解，美国修改规则后，就有机构表示，对台积电的影响将会在2020年第四季度和2021年第一季度出现，如今看来，果然如此。</p><p>其次，台积电先后在美国、日本建厂。</p><p>据悉，无论是美国还是日本都曾邀请台积电建厂，台积电都明确表示拒绝了，但美国修改规则后，台积电的态度却180度大转弯。</p><p>据悉，台积电先是宣布在美国投资120亿美元建设5nm芯片的生产线，随后有消息称，台积电将会在日本建设先进的封测厂。</p><p>据了解，台积电在美国建厂，是为了许可，也是为了美国企业的订单；在日本建厂，则是为了完整的产业链，毕竟日本的封测技术领先。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210111172655687v1738e3ka8cwfbl\"/><p>但台积电建厂的最终目的都是为了营收，如果断供对台积电没有影响的话，其又何必出尔反尔，先后在美国、日本建厂保证营收呢。</p><p>最后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>向台积电全面开火。</p><p>三星与台积电虽然都是芯片制造企业，但两者的竞争并不激烈，因为三星没有全面开放晶圆代工，仅代工苹果、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>以及自家芯片等。</p><p>但在美国修改规则后，三星已经正式宣布，向全球芯片企业开放晶圆代工业务，为了提高产能和良品率，三星李在镕更是亲自前往ASML，协商购买更多EUV光刻机。</p><p>在这样的情况下，必然会有大量的订单流向三星，而三星已经发布消息称，14nm等以上的芯片订单已经超过了预期。</p><p>可以说，这也断供对台积电带来的影响，如果没有断供，三星或许就不会这么做了。</p><p>也正是因为如此，才说断供的后果出现了！新正式消息传来，台积电也没跑了。对此你们怎么看，欢迎留言、点赞、分享。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>断供的后果出现了！新正式消息传来，台积电也没跑了</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n断供的后果出现了！新正式消息传来，台积电也没跑了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-01-11 17:18 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20210111172657798adade&s=b><strong>老王哥</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在芯片技术方面，美国掌握了大量的技术和专利，即便是ASML、台积电等这样的半导体巨头，也采用了不少美国技术。也正是因为如此，美国才能“挟技术以令众多半导体芯片企业”，在没有许可的情况下，均不能自由出货。对于美国修改规则，华为余承东则表示，美国一旦打开潘多拉魔盒，全球产业链都将受到损失。一方面是因为芯片产业全球化已经形成，任何一个环节出现问题，整个产业都会受到影响；另外一方面是华为需求巨大，毕竟华为...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20210111172657798adade&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/975836d8c6eb511241583dccb0d387f2","relate_stocks":{"EWT":"台湾ETF-iShares MSCI","03145":"华夏亚洲高息股","TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20210111172657798adade&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2102996384","content_text":"在芯片技术方面，美国掌握了大量的技术和专利，即便是ASML、台积电等这样的半导体巨头，也采用了不少美国技术。也正是因为如此，美国才能“挟技术以令众多半导体芯片企业”，在没有许可的情况下，均不能自由出货。对于美国修改规则，华为余承东则表示，美国一旦打开潘多拉魔盒，全球产业链都将受到损失。一方面是因为芯片产业全球化已经形成，任何一个环节出现问题，整个产业都会受到影响；另外一方面是华为需求巨大，毕竟华为每年的营收都高达万亿元左右。意外的是，台积电刘德音却表示，美国修改规则，虽然导致台积电失去了超360亿元的订单，但这不会给台积电带来影响，因为空出的产能有其它厂商的订单填补。还有就是，台积电还发布消息称，空出来的产能基本上瓜分完毕，苹果是5nm芯片的最大客户，而AMD则是7nm芯片的最大客户，2021年的产能也被预定空了。但如今看来，台积电刘德音太过于自信，因为新消息正式传来，断供的后果出现了，台积电也没跑了。情况是这样的。首先，台积电全年营收没有到达预期。据悉，之前台积电曾放出消息称，2020年的营收预计将达到454.2亿美元，较2019年的346.68亿美元增加107.52亿美元，同比增长率将达到31%。但台积电的实际营收并没有这么高。最新的消息称，台积电12月份营收为41.亿美元，环比下降 6%，同比增长 13.6%。另外，台积电全年营收为1.34万亿新台币，同比增长25.2%，与预期的同比增长31%，还有与一段差距的。最主要的是，台积电在9月中旬不能自由出货后，其营收都在环比下跌。数据显示，台积电9月的营收创下新高，约为45.6亿美元，而10月份、11月份、12月份的营收分别是41.78美元 、44.6亿美元、41亿美元。也就是说，相比9月份的营收，从10月份开始，台积电的营收都在下滑，这也是在失去华为订单后。据了解，美国修改规则后，就有机构表示，对台积电的影响将会在2020年第四季度和2021年第一季度出现，如今看来，果然如此。其次，台积电先后在美国、日本建厂。据悉，无论是美国还是日本都曾邀请台积电建厂，台积电都明确表示拒绝了，但美国修改规则后，台积电的态度却180度大转弯。据悉，台积电先是宣布在美国投资120亿美元建设5nm芯片的生产线，随后有消息称，台积电将会在日本建设先进的封测厂。据了解，台积电在美国建厂，是为了许可，也是为了美国企业的订单；在日本建厂，则是为了完整的产业链，毕竟日本的封测技术领先。但台积电建厂的最终目的都是为了营收，如果断供对台积电没有影响的话，其又何必出尔反尔，先后在美国、日本建厂保证营收呢。最后，三星向台积电全面开火。三星与台积电虽然都是芯片制造企业，但两者的竞争并不激烈，因为三星没有全面开放晶圆代工，仅代工苹果、高通以及自家芯片等。但在美国修改规则后，三星已经正式宣布，向全球芯片企业开放晶圆代工业务，为了提高产能和良品率，三星李在镕更是亲自前往ASML，协商购买更多EUV光刻机。在这样的情况下，必然会有大量的订单流向三星，而三星已经发布消息称，14nm等以上的芯片订单已经超过了预期。可以说，这也断供对台积电带来的影响，如果没有断供，三星或许就不会这么做了。也正是因为如此，才说断供的后果出现了！新正式消息传来，台积电也没跑了。对此你们怎么看，欢迎留言、点赞、分享。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1604,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":847070318,"gmtCreate":1636469972789,"gmtModify":1636469972789,"author":{"id":"36647787590447","authorId":"36647787590447","name":"田可","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36647787590447","authorIdStr":"36647787590447"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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17:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"QuestMobile：淘宝日活超4亿","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131068168","media":"新浪科技","summary":"消费者大促参与意愿继续上升，消费回暖趋势明显。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>新浪科技讯 第三方平台QuestMobile报告显示，淘宝APP6月平均日活跃用户数达4.02亿。今年618大促期间，总活跃用户数达9.15亿，稳居电商平台第一位，领先优势扩大至2.5亿。显示消费者大促参与意愿继续上升，消费回暖趋势明显。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">根据报告，618大促期间，淘宝平均每天分别获得450万增量用户，持续活跃用户占比达84.8%，在所有电商平台中排名最高。最新监测数据显示，今年3月以来淘宝app日活用户数已连续5个月高位增长，目前是唯一DAU破4亿的电商平台，领先优势持续扩大。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ea4eee5667a1bd37b8d1dbb8bf2396d\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"496\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">这一趋势与近期其他市场机构的数据相吻合。第三方监测机构MoonFox近期公布数据显示，主流电商APP在2023年二季度月活数据攀升明显，淘宝环比增幅最为明显，月活总数逼近8.77亿，京东次之。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">此外，近期高盛研报显示，<strong>淘宝月活数据比拼多多领先2.58亿，领先优势比去年同期扩大3000万量级，拼多多6月的日活用户则下跌21%。</strong>（原祎鸣）</p></body></html>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>QuestMobile：淘宝日活超4亿</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuestMobile：淘宝日活超4亿\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-08-04 17:47 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2023-08-04/doc-imzezsqt8794475.shtml><strong>新浪科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>新浪科技讯 第三方平台QuestMobile报告显示，淘宝APP6月平均日活跃用户数达4.02亿。今年618大促期间，总活跃用户数达9.15亿，稳居电商平台第一位，领先优势扩大至2.5亿。显示消费者大促参与意愿继续上升，消费回暖趋势明显。根据报告，618大促期间，淘宝平均每天分别获得450万增量用户，持续活跃用户占比达84.8%，在所有电商平台中排名最高。最新监测数据显示，今年3月以来淘宝app...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2023-08-04/doc-imzezsqt8794475.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c519070381b0b1b184dce8848ef815","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","PDD":"拼多多"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2023-08-04/doc-imzezsqt8794475.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131068168","content_text":"新浪科技讯 第三方平台QuestMobile报告显示，淘宝APP6月平均日活跃用户数达4.02亿。今年618大促期间，总活跃用户数达9.15亿，稳居电商平台第一位，领先优势扩大至2.5亿。显示消费者大促参与意愿继续上升，消费回暖趋势明显。根据报告，618大促期间，淘宝平均每天分别获得450万增量用户，持续活跃用户占比达84.8%，在所有电商平台中排名最高。最新监测数据显示，今年3月以来淘宝app日活用户数已连续5个月高位增长，目前是唯一DAU破4亿的电商平台，领先优势持续扩大。这一趋势与近期其他市场机构的数据相吻合。第三方监测机构MoonFox近期公布数据显示，主流电商APP在2023年二季度月活数据攀升明显，淘宝环比增幅最为明显，月活总数逼近8.77亿，京东次之。此外，近期高盛研报显示，淘宝月活数据比拼多多领先2.58亿，领先优势比去年同期扩大3000万量级，拼多多6月的日活用户则下跌21%。（原祎鸣）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":685,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":653540286,"gmtCreate":1681147010945,"gmtModify":1681147618732,"author":{"id":"36647787590447","authorId":"36647787590447","name":"田可","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36647787590447","authorIdStr":"36647787590447"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"误导。微软的首要目标明显是扩大云计算的份额。","listText":"误导。微软的首要目标明显是扩大云计算的份额。","text":"误导。微软的首要目标明显是扩大云计算的份额。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/653540286","repostId":"2325525469","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2325525469","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1680953880,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2325525469?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-04-08 19:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"微软：及时止损才是上策","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2325525469","media":"美股研究社","summary":"然而，所有这些并不能证实微软是一项伟大的投资。YCharts数据微软近期股价上涨的最大推动力是预期必应将从谷歌手中夺取搜索引擎领域的市场份额。但这是在连续 5 个月失去市场份额之后发生的。目前，微软的市盈率是 32 倍。YCharts数据03结论到目前为止，微软公司并不是一家有风险或糟糕的企业，但是，按照这些估值，该股票是一项风险投资。如果必应无法夺走任何市场份额，并且微软保持最近一个季度的缓慢增长，那么回调将迫在眉睫。","content":"<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12042315562648ffa339b15c0268fe15\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"499\"></p><p>作者 |Friso Alenus</p><p>编译 | 华尔街大事件</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>(NASDAQ:MSFT)在公司大力投资OpenAI的消息传出后股价大幅上涨。微软已将 AI <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>集成到他们的搜索引擎 Bing 中，并计划在 Office 365 中做同样的事情。另一方面，收购 Activision Blizzard的可能性正在增加，因为日本监管机构表示该交易是对竞争无害。然而，所有这些并不能证实微软是一项伟大的投资。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb0de4b964b8b8fd378fef473d332980\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\"></p><p>YCharts数据</p><p>微软近期股价上涨的最大推动力是预期必应将从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>手中夺取搜索引擎领域的市场份额。2021 年，全球搜索引擎市场规模接近 1700 亿美元，因此市场份额的任何变化都可能赚取或损失大量资金。到目前为止，指针根本没有向有利于必应的方向移动。</p><p>3 月份，必应略微增加了其全球搜索引擎市场份额。但这是在连续 5 个月失去市场份额之后发生的。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43ecbe008f5bdacadbf3e27e0212f358\" tg-width=\"538\" tg-height=\"281\"></p><p>Statcounter（作者制作）</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b0c8807446cbfdc2041c3192cd6b4a5\" tg-width=\"517\" tg-height=\"61\"></p><p>Statcounter（作者制作）</p><p>放大桌面搜索引擎市场，必应在该市场的市场份额高于其他细分市场，可以看到过去几个月的市场份额出现了类似的下降。与之前的跌幅相比，3月份的涨幅相对较低。桌面市场份额应该是ChatGPT实施的最大受益者；仍然，没有太多的运动可以检测到。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828248c435baace2d51a168bc3f8746a\" tg-width=\"534\" tg-height=\"280\"></p><p>Statcounter（作者制作）</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b02d5070da291f4cd6c4d5635f6a9ea\" tg-width=\"519\" tg-height=\"62\"></p><p>Statcounter（作者制作）</p><p>移动搜索引擎市场由谷歌高度主导，并且在很长一段时间内一直保持稳定。即使在 3 月份，必应也不断从谷歌和其他供应商手中夺走市场份额。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5f6c39fd682d3ce1fac37608c12ce46\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"279\"></p><p>Statcounter（作者制作）</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2ce42f0d3da9d2b3a5c1bc9863792ca\" tg-width=\"518\" tg-height=\"59\"></p><p>Statcounter（作者制作）</p><p>如果您曾经使用过必应，就会明白为什么必应没有占据任何市场份额。每当搜索某些内容时，都无法获得最佳结果。这是一个巨大的问题……此外，ChatGPT仍然可以通过谷歌获得，因此也没有动力转向必应。</p><p>02</p><p>估值与增长</p><p>尽管华尔街仍然极度乐观，但重要的是要保持高度现实，不要陷入炒作之中。在最近一个季度，微软报告收入增长 2%，净收入下降 8%，表明该公司在不断变化的环境中也并非毫发无伤。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08ac7ef22136cec264ad1f24c00e2d3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"207\"></p><p>目前，微软的市盈率是 32 倍。与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、Meta和谷歌相比，微软股票的交易溢价很高。这意味着投资者押注公司未来的增长。估计增长数字中的任何遗漏都可能导致一些严重的重新评估。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b3d70c7126cb6c030d6675a2d36bb1\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\"></p><p>YCharts数据</p><p>此外，就自由现金流的价格而言，该股票的估值更高。除此之外，股息和回购的百分比将大大降低，因为它们取决于自由现金流。在过去的十二个月里，公司回购了只有 1% 的流通股，不是因为回购量少，而是因为微软回购自己的股票的价格很高，包括 2022 年用于股票薪酬（“SBC”）的 75 亿美元将进一步降低回购比例。</p><p>该公司在股票回购 (TTM) 上花费了 248 亿美元，占其自由现金流的 41%。除此之外，目前的股息收益率低于 1%（192 亿美元），并消耗了另外 32% 的自由现金流（“FCF”）。如果不是因为他们庞大的资产负债表，这将无法持续很长时间。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eeb5ed6a37ef6d6533f100e775ca552\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\"></p><p>YCharts数据</p><p>03</p><p>结论</p><p>到目前为止，微软公司并不是一家有风险或糟糕的企业，但是，按照这些估值，该股票是一项风险投资。如果必应无法夺走任何市场份额，并且微软保持最近一个季度的缓慢增长，那么回调将迫在眉睫。价格越高，越难超越其他产品。反之亦然。现在，坐在场边会更安全。因此，分析师将该股评级为卖出。更好的入市价是自由现金流为 20-25，这至少导致每股 215 美元的价格，并且至少比当前价格下跌 30%。</p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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华尔街大事件微软(NASDAQ:MSFT)在公司大力投资OpenAI的消息传出后股价大幅上涨。微软已将 AI 机器人集成到他们的搜索引擎 Bing 中，并计划在 Office 365 中做同样的事情。另一方面，收购 Activision Blizzard的可能性正在增加，因为日本监管机构表示该交易是对竞争无害。然而，所有这些并不能证实微软是一项伟大的投资。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-04-08/doc-imypspff5152184.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4097":"系统软件","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) 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ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4538":"云计算","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-04-08/doc-imypspff5152184.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2325525469","content_text":"作者 |Friso Alenus编译 | 华尔街大事件微软(NASDAQ:MSFT)在公司大力投资OpenAI的消息传出后股价大幅上涨。微软已将 AI 机器人集成到他们的搜索引擎 Bing 中，并计划在 Office 365 中做同样的事情。另一方面，收购 Activision Blizzard的可能性正在增加，因为日本监管机构表示该交易是对竞争无害。然而，所有这些并不能证实微软是一项伟大的投资。YCharts数据微软近期股价上涨的最大推动力是预期必应将从谷歌手中夺取搜索引擎领域的市场份额。2021 年，全球搜索引擎市场规模接近 1700 亿美元，因此市场份额的任何变化都可能赚取或损失大量资金。到目前为止，指针根本没有向有利于必应的方向移动。3 月份，必应略微增加了其全球搜索引擎市场份额。但这是在连续 5 个月失去市场份额之后发生的。Statcounter（作者制作）Statcounter（作者制作）放大桌面搜索引擎市场，必应在该市场的市场份额高于其他细分市场，可以看到过去几个月的市场份额出现了类似的下降。与之前的跌幅相比，3月份的涨幅相对较低。桌面市场份额应该是ChatGPT实施的最大受益者；仍然，没有太多的运动可以检测到。Statcounter（作者制作）Statcounter（作者制作）移动搜索引擎市场由谷歌高度主导，并且在很长一段时间内一直保持稳定。即使在 3 月份，必应也不断从谷歌和其他供应商手中夺走市场份额。Statcounter（作者制作）Statcounter（作者制作）如果您曾经使用过必应，就会明白为什么必应没有占据任何市场份额。每当搜索某些内容时，都无法获得最佳结果。这是一个巨大的问题……此外，ChatGPT仍然可以通过谷歌获得，因此也没有动力转向必应。02估值与增长尽管华尔街仍然极度乐观，但重要的是要保持高度现实，不要陷入炒作之中。在最近一个季度，微软报告收入增长 2%，净收入下降 8%，表明该公司在不断变化的环境中也并非毫发无伤。目前，微软的市盈率是 32 倍。与苹果、Meta和谷歌相比，微软股票的交易溢价很高。这意味着投资者押注公司未来的增长。估计增长数字中的任何遗漏都可能导致一些严重的重新评估。YCharts数据此外，就自由现金流的价格而言，该股票的估值更高。除此之外，股息和回购的百分比将大大降低，因为它们取决于自由现金流。在过去的十二个月里，公司回购了只有 1% 的流通股，不是因为回购量少，而是因为微软回购自己的股票的价格很高，包括 2022 年用于股票薪酬（“SBC”）的 75 亿美元将进一步降低回购比例。该公司在股票回购 (TTM) 上花费了 248 亿美元，占其自由现金流的 41%。除此之外，目前的股息收益率低于 1%（192 亿美元），并消耗了另外 32% 的自由现金流（“FCF”）。如果不是因为他们庞大的资产负债表，这将无法持续很长时间。YCharts数据03结论到目前为止，微软公司并不是一家有风险或糟糕的企业，但是，按照这些估值，该股票是一项风险投资。如果必应无法夺走任何市场份额，并且微软保持最近一个季度的缓慢增长，那么回调将迫在眉睫。价格越高，越难超越其他产品。反之亦然。现在，坐在场边会更安全。因此，分析师将该股评级为卖出。更好的入市价是自由现金流为 20-25，这至少导致每股 215 美元的价格，并且至少比当前价格下跌 30%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":676,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":332683191,"gmtCreate":1610378670913,"gmtModify":1703743976723,"author":{"id":"36647787590447","authorId":"36647787590447","name":"田可","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36647787590447","authorIdStr":"36647787590447"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"**文章","listText":"**文章","text":"**文章","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/332683191","repostId":"2102996384","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1604,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
