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2021-06-15
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2021-06-15
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There’s a Big Divergence Developing in Inflation Expectations
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2021-06-15
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15:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"There’s a Big Divergence Developing in Inflation Expectations","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180935322","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Older people who remember bouts of high inflation see much stronger price pressures ahead.","content":"<p>Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, according to Milton Friedman. It’s also a massively subjective experience.</p>\n<p>People might have different impressions of inflation depending on their own personal ‘baskets’ of recurrent items, but they can also have different concerns based on their personal history with price pressures. Those who lived through the 1970s, for instance, might be far more inclined to seeWeimar-esque hyperinflationlurking around the corner, while those who’ve never witnessed inflation hit 2% are far more sanguine.</p>\n<p>As Ulrike Malmendierand Stefan Nagelput it in their seminal 2016 paper examining how people actually form inflation expectations:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “Such learning from experience carries two central implications. First, expectations are history-dependent. Cohorts that have lived through periods of high inflation for a substantial amount of time have higher inflation expectations than individuals who have mostly experienced low inflation.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Second, beliefs are heterogeneous. Young individuals place more weight on recent data than older individuals since recent experiences make up a larger part of their life-times so far. As a result, different generations tend to disagree about the future.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>That dynamic is now fully apparent, according to data from the New York Fed, with a schism now developing between younger survey respondents who expect inflation to hit 3.19% in a year, and an older generation who sees it getting close to 5% within the same time period.</p>\n<p>So while respondents across the spectrum of ages do see inflation trending higher, the olds expect a much higher rate than the youngs.</p>\n<p>Median one-year ahead expected inflation rate by age group</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29689a621effc70feb1657ffbfb870d9\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"303\">Now would be a good time to ask whether economic policy takes into account age-like schisms and whether the impression of higher inflation from those over 60 might be the latest thing for members of the FOMC to strip out of inflation data as transitory or otherwise ‘noisy.’</p>\n<p>It’s also worth mentioning that Malmendier’slatest workfocuses on central bankers’ own history with inflation, concluding that “personal lifetime experiences significantly affect the inflation forecasts, voting behavior, tone of speeches, and federal funds target rate decisions of FOMC members.”</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>There’s a Big Divergence Developing in Inflation Expectations</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThere’s a Big Divergence Developing in Inflation Expectations\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 15:53 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-15/there-s-a-big-divergence-developing-in-inflation-expectations><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, according to Milton Friedman. It’s also a massively subjective experience.\nPeople might have different impressions of inflation depending on ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-15/there-s-a-big-divergence-developing-in-inflation-expectations\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-15/there-s-a-big-divergence-developing-in-inflation-expectations","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180935322","content_text":"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, according to Milton Friedman. It’s also a massively subjective experience.\nPeople might have different impressions of inflation depending on their own personal ‘baskets’ of recurrent items, but they can also have different concerns based on their personal history with price pressures. Those who lived through the 1970s, for instance, might be far more inclined to seeWeimar-esque hyperinflationlurking around the corner, while those who’ve never witnessed inflation hit 2% are far more sanguine.\nAs Ulrike Malmendierand Stefan Nagelput it in their seminal 2016 paper examining how people actually form inflation expectations:\n\n “Such learning from experience carries two central implications. First, expectations are history-dependent. Cohorts that have lived through periods of high inflation for a substantial amount of time have higher inflation expectations than individuals who have mostly experienced low inflation.\n\n\n Second, beliefs are heterogeneous. Young individuals place more weight on recent data than older individuals since recent experiences make up a larger part of their life-times so far. As a result, different generations tend to disagree about the future.”\n\nThat dynamic is now fully apparent, according to data from the New York Fed, with a schism now developing between younger survey respondents who expect inflation to hit 3.19% in a year, and an older generation who sees it getting close to 5% within the same time period.\nSo while respondents across the spectrum of ages do see inflation trending higher, the olds expect a much higher rate than the youngs.\nMedian one-year ahead expected inflation rate by age group\nNow would be a good time to ask whether economic policy takes into account age-like schisms and whether the impression of higher inflation from those over 60 might be the latest thing for members of the FOMC to strip out of inflation data as transitory or otherwise ‘noisy.’\nIt’s also worth mentioning that Malmendier’slatest workfocuses on central bankers’ own history with inflation, concluding that “personal lifetime experiences significantly affect the inflation forecasts, voting behavior, tone of speeches, and federal funds target rate decisions of FOMC members.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187273987,"gmtCreate":1623757033349,"gmtModify":1634028921372,"author":{"id":"3586848009120054","authorId":"3586848009120054","name":"NizamMarican","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586848009120054","idStr":"3586848009120054"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"about time","listText":"about time","text":"about time","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187273987","repostId":"1124987614","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124987614","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623743828,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124987614?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 15:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EU Set to Lift Travel Curbs for U.S. Residents This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124987614","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"U.S., Saudi Arabia to be added to bloc’s travel ‘white list’\nMove comes amid warnings about spread o","content":"<ul>\n <li>U.S., Saudi Arabia to be added to bloc’s travel ‘white list’</li>\n <li>Move comes amid warnings about spread of coronavirus variants</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The European Union is set to lift travel restrictions for U.S. residents as soon as this week, in the latest step toward a return to normal despite concerns over the spread of potentially dangerous coronavirus variants.</p>\n<p>Portugal, which holds the rotating presidency of the EU, proposed adding the U.S., Albania, Hong Kong, Lebanon, Macau, the Republic of NorthernMacedonia, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, and Taiwan to a so-called “white list” of countries from which non-essential travel to the bloc is allowed, according to a diplomat familiar with the matter. Assuming no objections, EU government envoys in Brussels will approve the expanded white list on Wednesday, the diplomat said, asking not to be named, in line with policy.</p>\n<p>The move will provide a boost for major EU airlines such as Air France-KLM and Deutsche Lufthansa AG, which along with their American counterparts rely on the profitable trans-Atlantic corridors. Long-distance travel has been hit hard by restrictions brought on by the pandemic.</p>\n<p>While some EU member states already allow vaccinated Americans to visit, inclusion in the white list means that restrictions will be lifted across the bloc. It also means that member states are free to allow quarantine-free travel from the U.S independently of vaccination status.</p>\n<p>Despite the progress, trans-Atlantic travel won’t be fully open until the U.S. reciprocates and lifts a ban on most EU residents from entering the country.</p>\n<p><b>Free Movement</b></p>\n<p>The expansion of EU’s white listof external countries, which already includes Japan, comes as internal travel within the bloc is being restored for those who are vaccinated or can prove that they have recently recovered from the virus. As of July 1, holders of so-called digital Covid certificates will be able to move freely anywhere in the EU’s 27 member states 14 days after the last shot.</p>\n<p>The continued easing of pandemic-induced restrictions in the EU marks a stark contrast with Britain, where prime minister Boris Johnson decided to delay a full reopening for England due to a surge in infections with the delta variant of the coronavirus. The spike in infections, even as the U.K. has inoculated a larger share of its population than the EU, has alarmed some officials in Brussels.</p>\n<p>EU health commissioner Stella Kyriakides will tell the bloc’s health ministers in a meeting on Tuesday that they need to fully inoculate as many people as possible as quickly as possible, in the face of mounting evidence that the protective shield of vaccines is weaker against the delta variant, especially for those who haven’t received both doses. Kyriakides will urge ministers to take the threat of more contagious variants seriously, according to an official familiar with the matter.</p>\n<p>Still, the number of infections and hospitalizations in the EU keeps falling over the past nine weeks, and with the vaccine rollout accelerating, the EU’s tourism-dependent economies are eager to restore travel and normalcy, ahead of this summer’s season.</p>\n<p>EU leaders will discuss the epidemiological situation when they meet in Brussels next week, pledging a “full return to free movement as soon as the public health situation allows,” according to a draft of their joint statement seen by Bloomberg.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EU Set to Lift Travel Curbs for U.S. Residents This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEU Set to Lift Travel Curbs for U.S. Residents This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 15:57 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-15/eu-set-to-lift-travel-curbs-for-u-s-residents-this-week-kpxnj53y?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>U.S., Saudi Arabia to be added to bloc’s travel ‘white list’\nMove comes amid warnings about spread of coronavirus variants\n\nThe European Union is set to lift travel restrictions for U.S. residents as ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-15/eu-set-to-lift-travel-curbs-for-u-s-residents-this-week-kpxnj53y?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-15/eu-set-to-lift-travel-curbs-for-u-s-residents-this-week-kpxnj53y?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124987614","content_text":"U.S., Saudi Arabia to be added to bloc’s travel ‘white list’\nMove comes amid warnings about spread of coronavirus variants\n\nThe European Union is set to lift travel restrictions for U.S. residents as soon as this week, in the latest step toward a return to normal despite concerns over the spread of potentially dangerous coronavirus variants.\nPortugal, which holds the rotating presidency of the EU, proposed adding the U.S., Albania, Hong Kong, Lebanon, Macau, the Republic of NorthernMacedonia, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, and Taiwan to a so-called “white list” of countries from which non-essential travel to the bloc is allowed, according to a diplomat familiar with the matter. Assuming no objections, EU government envoys in Brussels will approve the expanded white list on Wednesday, the diplomat said, asking not to be named, in line with policy.\nThe move will provide a boost for major EU airlines such as Air France-KLM and Deutsche Lufthansa AG, which along with their American counterparts rely on the profitable trans-Atlantic corridors. Long-distance travel has been hit hard by restrictions brought on by the pandemic.\nWhile some EU member states already allow vaccinated Americans to visit, inclusion in the white list means that restrictions will be lifted across the bloc. It also means that member states are free to allow quarantine-free travel from the U.S independently of vaccination status.\nDespite the progress, trans-Atlantic travel won’t be fully open until the U.S. reciprocates and lifts a ban on most EU residents from entering the country.\nFree Movement\nThe expansion of EU’s white listof external countries, which already includes Japan, comes as internal travel within the bloc is being restored for those who are vaccinated or can prove that they have recently recovered from the virus. As of July 1, holders of so-called digital Covid certificates will be able to move freely anywhere in the EU’s 27 member states 14 days after the last shot.\nThe continued easing of pandemic-induced restrictions in the EU marks a stark contrast with Britain, where prime minister Boris Johnson decided to delay a full reopening for England due to a surge in infections with the delta variant of the coronavirus. The spike in infections, even as the U.K. has inoculated a larger share of its population than the EU, has alarmed some officials in Brussels.\nEU health commissioner Stella Kyriakides will tell the bloc’s health ministers in a meeting on Tuesday that they need to fully inoculate as many people as possible as quickly as possible, in the face of mounting evidence that the protective shield of vaccines is weaker against the delta variant, especially for those who haven’t received both doses. Kyriakides will urge ministers to take the threat of more contagious variants seriously, according to an official familiar with the matter.\nStill, the number of infections and hospitalizations in the EU keeps falling over the past nine weeks, and with the vaccine rollout accelerating, the EU’s tourism-dependent economies are eager to restore travel and normalcy, ahead of this summer’s season.\nEU leaders will discuss the epidemiological situation when they meet in Brussels next week, pledging a “full return to free movement as soon as the public health situation allows,” according to a draft of their joint statement seen by Bloomberg.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":60,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187270814,"gmtCreate":1623756992138,"gmtModify":1634028922981,"author":{"id":"3586848009120054","authorId":"3586848009120054","name":"NizamMarican","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586848009120054","idStr":"3586848009120054"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good news","listText":"good news","text":"good news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187270814","repostId":"1181891821","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
