+关注
Jasonteo
暂无个人介绍
IP属地：未知
151
关注
1
粉丝
0
主题
0
勋章
主贴
热门
Jasonteo
2021-08-01
Good
抱歉，原内容已删除
Jasonteo
2021-06-29
Good
The Most Epic Back-to-School Season Ever: 2 Stocks to Watch
Jasonteo
2021-07-16
Good [财迷]
财报前瞻 | 爱立信：业绩股价双丰收？
Jasonteo
2021-07-12
Excited
抱歉，原内容已删除
Jasonteo
2021-07-20
👍👍
大白马们，终究还是一地鸡毛
Jasonteo
2021-07-13
Good
开盘：恒指开涨0.65%，两新股首挂双双破发
Jasonteo
2021-07-12
Nice
抱歉，原内容已删除
Jasonteo
2021-07-12
Excited
抱歉，原内容已删除
Jasonteo
2021-06-28
Good
抱歉，原内容已删除
去老虎APP查看更多动态
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3586549737202999","uuid":"3586549737202999","gmtCreate":1623455910792,"gmtModify":1626058703601,"name":"Jasonteo","pinyin":"jasonteo","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c65e51a6c7aa32f9d87734f24dea5af2","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":1,"headSize":151,"tweetSize":9,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-1","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"出道虎友","description":"加入老虎社区500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.10.27","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":2,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":802614170,"gmtCreate":1627776593790,"gmtModify":1633756574881,"author":{"id":"3586549737202999","authorId":"3586549737202999","name":"Jasonteo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c65e51a6c7aa32f9d87734f24dea5af2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586549737202999","idStr":"3586549737202999"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802614170","repostId":"1165085669","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171283674,"gmtCreate":1626746246698,"gmtModify":1633771455608,"author":{"id":"3586549737202999","authorId":"3586549737202999","name":"Jasonteo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c65e51a6c7aa32f9d87734f24dea5af2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586549737202999","idStr":"3586549737202999"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍","listText":"👍👍","text":"👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171283674","repostId":"2152955658","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2152955658","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626743134,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2152955658?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 09:05","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"大白马们，终究还是一地鸡毛","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2152955658","media":"格隆汇","summary":"大白马暴跌大多都是从今年2月18日开始的，短短5个月蒸发市值高达数万亿人民币。","content":"<p>上周五，欧美股市集体大跌。今日，亚太股市跟随之，表现不佳。其中，港股恒指大跌近2%，互联网巨头们再度狂泻。A股沪指和深成指盘中跌近1%但给V回来了，但整体还是处于盘整弱势的状态。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb01eecc9957ad13104a045303839fc2\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">这让股友们想起前几天李大霄同志极度罕见的看空言论。他在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>发文说到，当前A股整体风险还不明显，但局部已经出现了一些明显的风险。他列了5条看空理由，<b>其中一条直指创业板估值过高，已经渐渐接近2015年5178点的水平。</b></p>\n<p>是的，创业板指风险很大，当前PE高达61.7倍，几乎位列全球主流股指估值的NO.1。权重占比15%的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>持续大涨，带动创业板指持续飙升。但有没有想过一个问题，如果宁德开启回调，创业板指会不会崩得很难看？<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8548724e2b26f9b3aba65279d8b9f71\" tg-width=\"1001\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>按照机构预测，宁德2021年大致有100亿利润，但现在却支撑了1.2万亿市值，多少有些头重脚轻。7月15日，是创业板公司发布业绩预告的截止时间。宁德没有发预告，最有可能的因素是中期利润同比幅度不超过50%，而一季度同比增长112%。大家怎么看？</p>\n<p>其实，包括宁德在内的少数白马暴走的同时，A股一大批白马早已经跌得溃不成军了。</p>\n<h3>1</h3>\n<h3><b>白马神话破灭</b></h3>\n<p>传统行业中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000876\">新希望</a>自从高点下跌70%，永辉跌60%，三一、双汇、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600872\">中炬高新</a>跌逾50%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300999\">金龙鱼</a>、顺丰、上机跌逾45%，牧原跌42%，平安、海螺跌逾35%，伊利、万科、美的跌逾30%。格力跌了26%，跌幅不算多，但股价4年没涨了。</p>\n<p>互联网行业中，快手跌65%，美团跌38%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>跌30%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>跌27%，阿里跌22%。大医药行业中，恒瑞暴跌38%，体检茅<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002044\">美年健康</a>跌56%。</p>\n<p><b>这批大白马暴跌大多都是从今年2月18日开始的，短短5个月蒸发市值高达数万亿人民币。</b>它们均是各大行业的龙头，也就是这几年被投资者挂在嘴边的核心资产。</p>\n<p>那么，问题来了，这批白马去年被极度看好，绝大多数公司股价还创下历史新高。短短几个月，风云突变，被市场大幅抛弃，究竟为何？</p>\n<p>市值大跌，无非两个层面的因素，一个是基本面，一个是估值，前者往往决定着后者的表现。</p>\n<p>传统行业中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000333\">美的集团</a>是典型代表。在218年崩盘之前，估值倍数去到了30倍+，创下了美的2013年上市以来的最高记录。<b>估值高，无非是市场预期业绩能够保持高速增长，且能够有持续性，但这样的逻辑并不可靠，今年被证伪了。</b></p>\n<p>2017-2020年，美的营收同比增速为51.35%、8.23%、6.71%、2.27%，归母净利润增速分别为17.7%、17%、19.7%、12.44%。今年一季度，归母净利润为64.7亿，同比增速34.5%，主要因素是去年一季度基数太低导致的，2019年Q1净利润就有61.3亿，相当于2年时间累增5.5%，平均增速仅为2.7%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e348fc2c3801b34df6fe1a15b3ea616e\" tg-width=\"1002\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>业绩增速不断下台阶，正常情况下，估值应该持续往下走，但去年由于市场作妖，疯狂抱团，美的估值却逆向大涨。<b>显然，疯狂的投机游戏结束了，一地鸡毛。</b></p>\n<p>大医药行业中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600276\">恒瑞医药</a>去年累涨53%。到今年年初，估值倍数一度去到了103倍，同样是历史最高水平。</p>\n<p>一季度，恒瑞营收69.3亿，同比增速25%，归母净利润14.97亿，同比增长13.77%。这个成绩相对过往其实是不合格的，因为去年一季度受到疫情影响，营收和利润受到较大冲击，基数较低。要知道，在疫情之前的9年间（2011-2019年）的增速处在20%-43%之间，唯有2013年和2016年稍低于20%。</p>\n<p>恒瑞业绩表现不及预期，主要逻辑是研发费用大增。一季度研发费用达到13.16亿元，同比增长62.3%。一季度的研发费用比2017年以前每年的费用还要高得多。这从侧面也说明一个问题，<b>当前的创新药的大背景竞争非常激烈，不得不投入高研发才能维持业绩的增长。</b></p>\n<p>很残酷的是，今年将会是PD-1最后的红利期。2022年的PD-1国家医保谈判将更加惨烈，不论是竞争的企业数量还是大适应症的数量均达到空前激烈的程度。恒瑞在接下来的这一轮又一轮的恶战中，并不占优，且面临大幅降价的困扰，后续恒瑞没有类似PD-1的大单品接龙，业绩增速将会下一个台阶。</p>\n<p>互联网行业，腾讯年初估值倍数去到了52倍，创下3年多新高。但股价持续下跌，也反应出市场对于业绩的增长预期发生了一些变化。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a22ce9c2708667e7793e30dd1d9a31e\" tg-width=\"1001\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>去年，市场造就了一个又一个的白马神话，给投资者带来了足够惊人的回报率。<b>但市场终究要回归理性，估值泡沫在今年被挤破了。</b>并且伴随的是，大多白马业绩基本面出现了一些边际恶化的迹象，并不是去年预期那样所向披靡的业绩大增。</p>\n<h3>2</h3>\n<h3><b>行业内卷化</b></h3>\n<p>按照股票定价模型，现值是公司未来所有现金流总和进行折现的结果。很显然，要维持高估值，唯有未来利润高速增长，且具备持续性才可以。</p>\n<p><b>但中国宏观经济环境，已经不能支撑各大行业的龙头们持续高增长了。</b>这是一个非常现实的问题。</p>\n<p>纵观过去数10年，中国经济增速最为辉煌的是2007年，那一年GDP同比高达14.23%，后基本保持一路下滑的态势——10%、9%、7%，到疫情之前的2019年仅有6.1%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17d98d552496248010a70e1035d64986\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>2020年，中国GDP增速仅有2.3%，可见去年绝大多数行业受到疫情非常大的冲击。今年经济增长压力也很大，在去年低基数的情况下，目标只是维持6%以上的增长。如果把疫情特殊期间拉平看，2021年GDP目标相较于2019年仅增长8.6%，两年平均增速仅为4.3%。由此可见，中国宏观经济增速下台阶较为明显。</p>\n<p>GDP是所有行业平均增长的标尺，有的行业已经负增长，大多数行业则会维持不足5%的增长，而只有小部分行业才可以维持10%，乃至20%的高增长了。<b>当然，传统行业增速大多只有个位数，甚至不增长，期望着行业龙头们动不动20%，乃至30%的高增长其实不太现实了。</b></p>\n<p>万科历史最高股价，定格在2018年1月，格力当前价格与2018年1月基本持平。这两家是房地产、家电行业最具代表性的超级龙头。为什么2018年之后股价就涨不动了呢？<b>答案在行业上，自从2018年以后，宏观层面很显然是受到了房地产周期的影响和冲击。</b></p>\n<p>2016年，中国商品房销售面积同比增速高达22.5%，房地产景气度非常高。在此高基数的背景下，2017年仍然取得7.7%的同比增速。但2018年增速大幅下滑至1.3%，2019年则变为-0.1%。可见，2017年、2018年是这一轮房地产高景气度的高点，此后便走下坡路了。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07858fd8da65a4c3a295f008318fe3ca\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>房地产、家电是传统行业最为典型的代表，当然银行、重工机械、水泥、传统商超、保险、食品饮料（部分）行业的周期早早迈过了成长性，进入成熟期，必然会跟着宏观经济增速继续下台阶。</p>\n<p><b>增长不动了（基本面边际恶化），估值就会下移，回报率就会大打折扣，自然而然会被主流市场抛弃。</b>当然，即便是增速很慢的行业，却企业能够力挽狂澜，抢占对手市场份额实现高增长，但这样的企业实在太少太少，手指头都能数得过来。招行是其中一个典型代表。</p>\n<p>天下大势，浩浩汤汤，顺之者昌，逆之者亡。<b>多数企业，包括龙头会随着行业增速见顶下移，陷入激烈的存量竞争，市场也会毫不犹豫给出难以置信的低估值倍数。</b></p>\n<p>那么，有人会问了，相别于传统行业，互联网行业前景非常好，为什么巨头们也会被市场狠狠踩在脚下呢？</p>\n<p>这些年，互联网行业早已把人口、流量红利给吃完了。互联网无疑也进入了存量竞争。在这一环境下，互联网巨头们想要维持高增长，唯有突破原有的边界，去蚕食更多传统行业的蛋糕，来满足自己的高速扩张。社区团购就是一个典型。</p>\n<p>但这不利于政府的目标函数，不利于大多数人的广泛利益。很快，监管层重拳出手了。 今年4月，阿里被罚181亿。这是一个标志性事件，代表着中国互联网最野蛮生长的时代结束了。从此往后，强监管将会是一个常态，也给互联网行业的发展带上了紧箍咒。<b>从一度程度上讲，这也意味着互联网行业也越来越像“传统行业”靠齐。 </b></p>\n<p>监管频频出手背后，中国互联网的发展前景都不会再如去年之前那般光明。高速、持续增长的前景已经发生了较为深刻的变化。这波互联网巨头大跌也在预期这种宏观行业层面的变化。</p>\n<p>不管是传统行业，还是看起来前景不错的互联网行业，随着宏观经济的持续下台阶，几乎不可避免会进入内卷状态，未来这些行业的龙头们的业绩增速也不会有此前预期那么乐观，逐渐下台阶才是大势所趋。当然股价不可避免会很萎靡，投资者会很煎熬。</p>\n<p><b>一代新人换旧人，随便买入市场公认白马股而躺赚的时代过去了。</b>这有点类似投资房产。过去10多年，闭着眼睛随便买房子怎么都是赚。但当前，投资买房已经发生了明显的逻辑变化，再逆势而流，必将撞得头破血流。</p>\n<h3>3</h3>\n<h3><b>未来方向</b></h3>\n<p>未来，市场结构性分化将会是常态。因为我们的经济体，本身就有产业兴，有产业落，有公司兴，有公司落，有产业正处在顺周期，有产业处在逆周期。<b>普涨是奢望，分化才是常态。</b></p>\n<p>前文所提行业，不知不觉都进入了行业的成熟周期。但产业更替，一定还有不少行业正在孕育新的投资机会。当前，光伏、新能源汽车、医疗医美为什么反复被市场追捧，不断上涨？答案很简单，行业处在高速成长期（下图萌芽期），增量蛋糕很大，龙头们增速更快，自然会给到非常高的估值。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b80046927a879d08450c3a02bf5368\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"647\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>今年6月，新能源汽车销量为25.6万辆，整个汽车销量为201.5万辆，新能源车的渗透率已经达到12.7%，跨过10%的重要分水岭。新能源车未来几年的景气度会很高，成长性会很强。这是最近2年市场疯狂炒新能源车的重要逻辑。</p>\n<p>当然了，饭要一口一口吃，高估值还要等一等没有上来业绩灵魂。比如当前，宁德时代不足100亿的利润支撑起了1.2万的市值，怎么看都觉得疯狂了些。</p>\n<p><b>抓住那些未来高增长、且有持续性的行业，配置有潜力的公司，才是未来投资的大方向。</b>新能源、医疗医美、光伏等行业有长长的坡，厚厚的雪，机会众多，牛股会倍出。</p>\n<p>不光是投资者，本身处在传统行业的巨头们也在积极自救，通过资本的方式扩张新赛道，想要曲线实现业绩增长。2017年，美的斥资近300亿收购库卡公司，正式进入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>领域，但天有不测风云，最后结果不尽如意。</p>\n<p>但美的还在行动，今年2月斥资23亿入主<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600055\">万东医疗</a>，7月初全额认购不超过20.83亿定增份额，两次动作之后，持股比例已经超过40%，成为公司控股股东。万东医疗主营影像类医疗器械的研发、制造、生产，及影像诊断服务，是一个妥妥的好赛道啊。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6486ad33af5da7eee10120bcd9effb93\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"642\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>未来主流配置方向，市场已经较为有效地指明了方向。</b>但这并不意味着要马上就要去配置，还要考虑估值，否者短期可能面临巨大的回撤风险。</p>\n<p>未来，投资赚钱难度更大，因为多数行业陷入内卷，多数个股会走向香港化，持续阴跌会是常态，投资者要做好心理准备。</p>","source":"stock_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大白马们，终究还是一地鸡毛</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大白马们，终究还是一地鸡毛\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-20 09:05 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/476426><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>上周五，欧美股市集体大跌。今日，亚太股市跟随之，表现不佳。其中，港股恒指大跌近2%，互联网巨头们再度狂泻。A股沪指和深成指盘中跌近1%但给V回来了，但整体还是处于盘整弱势的状态。这让股友们想起前几天李大霄同志极度罕见的看空言论。他在微博发文说到，当前A股整体风险还不明显，但局部已经出现了一些明显的风险。他列了5条看空理由，其中一条直指创业板估值过高，已经渐渐接近2015年5178点的水平。\n是的，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/476426\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/476426","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2152955658","content_text":"上周五，欧美股市集体大跌。今日，亚太股市跟随之，表现不佳。其中，港股恒指大跌近2%，互联网巨头们再度狂泻。A股沪指和深成指盘中跌近1%但给V回来了，但整体还是处于盘整弱势的状态。这让股友们想起前几天李大霄同志极度罕见的看空言论。他在微博发文说到，当前A股整体风险还不明显，但局部已经出现了一些明显的风险。他列了5条看空理由，其中一条直指创业板估值过高，已经渐渐接近2015年5178点的水平。\n是的，创业板指风险很大，当前PE高达61.7倍，几乎位列全球主流股指估值的NO.1。权重占比15%的宁德时代持续大涨，带动创业板指持续飙升。但有没有想过一个问题，如果宁德开启回调，创业板指会不会崩得很难看？\n按照机构预测，宁德2021年大致有100亿利润，但现在却支撑了1.2万亿市值，多少有些头重脚轻。7月15日，是创业板公司发布业绩预告的截止时间。宁德没有发预告，最有可能的因素是中期利润同比幅度不超过50%，而一季度同比增长112%。大家怎么看？\n其实，包括宁德在内的少数白马暴走的同时，A股一大批白马早已经跌得溃不成军了。\n1\n白马神话破灭\n传统行业中，新希望自从高点下跌70%，永辉跌60%，三一、双汇、中炬高新跌逾50%，金龙鱼、顺丰、上机跌逾45%，牧原跌42%，平安、海螺跌逾35%，伊利、万科、美的跌逾30%。格力跌了26%，跌幅不算多，但股价4年没涨了。\n互联网行业中，快手跌65%，美团跌38%，京东跌30%，腾讯跌27%，阿里跌22%。大医药行业中，恒瑞暴跌38%，体检茅美年健康跌56%。\n这批大白马暴跌大多都是从今年2月18日开始的，短短5个月蒸发市值高达数万亿人民币。它们均是各大行业的龙头，也就是这几年被投资者挂在嘴边的核心资产。\n那么，问题来了，这批白马去年被极度看好，绝大多数公司股价还创下历史新高。短短几个月，风云突变，被市场大幅抛弃，究竟为何？\n市值大跌，无非两个层面的因素，一个是基本面，一个是估值，前者往往决定着后者的表现。\n传统行业中，美的集团是典型代表。在218年崩盘之前，估值倍数去到了30倍+，创下了美的2013年上市以来的最高记录。估值高，无非是市场预期业绩能够保持高速增长，且能够有持续性，但这样的逻辑并不可靠，今年被证伪了。\n2017-2020年，美的营收同比增速为51.35%、8.23%、6.71%、2.27%，归母净利润增速分别为17.7%、17%、19.7%、12.44%。今年一季度，归母净利润为64.7亿，同比增速34.5%，主要因素是去年一季度基数太低导致的，2019年Q1净利润就有61.3亿，相当于2年时间累增5.5%，平均增速仅为2.7%。\n\n业绩增速不断下台阶，正常情况下，估值应该持续往下走，但去年由于市场作妖，疯狂抱团，美的估值却逆向大涨。显然，疯狂的投机游戏结束了，一地鸡毛。\n大医药行业中，恒瑞医药去年累涨53%。到今年年初，估值倍数一度去到了103倍，同样是历史最高水平。\n一季度，恒瑞营收69.3亿，同比增速25%，归母净利润14.97亿，同比增长13.77%。这个成绩相对过往其实是不合格的，因为去年一季度受到疫情影响，营收和利润受到较大冲击，基数较低。要知道，在疫情之前的9年间（2011-2019年）的增速处在20%-43%之间，唯有2013年和2016年稍低于20%。\n恒瑞业绩表现不及预期，主要逻辑是研发费用大增。一季度研发费用达到13.16亿元，同比增长62.3%。一季度的研发费用比2017年以前每年的费用还要高得多。这从侧面也说明一个问题，当前的创新药的大背景竞争非常激烈，不得不投入高研发才能维持业绩的增长。\n很残酷的是，今年将会是PD-1最后的红利期。2022年的PD-1国家医保谈判将更加惨烈，不论是竞争的企业数量还是大适应症的数量均达到空前激烈的程度。恒瑞在接下来的这一轮又一轮的恶战中，并不占优，且面临大幅降价的困扰，后续恒瑞没有类似PD-1的大单品接龙，业绩增速将会下一个台阶。\n互联网行业，腾讯年初估值倍数去到了52倍，创下3年多新高。但股价持续下跌，也反应出市场对于业绩的增长预期发生了一些变化。\n\n去年，市场造就了一个又一个的白马神话，给投资者带来了足够惊人的回报率。但市场终究要回归理性，估值泡沫在今年被挤破了。并且伴随的是，大多白马业绩基本面出现了一些边际恶化的迹象，并不是去年预期那样所向披靡的业绩大增。\n2\n行业内卷化\n按照股票定价模型，现值是公司未来所有现金流总和进行折现的结果。很显然，要维持高估值，唯有未来利润高速增长，且具备持续性才可以。\n但中国宏观经济环境，已经不能支撑各大行业的龙头们持续高增长了。这是一个非常现实的问题。\n纵观过去数10年，中国经济增速最为辉煌的是2007年，那一年GDP同比高达14.23%，后基本保持一路下滑的态势——10%、9%、7%，到疫情之前的2019年仅有6.1%。\n\n2020年，中国GDP增速仅有2.3%，可见去年绝大多数行业受到疫情非常大的冲击。今年经济增长压力也很大，在去年低基数的情况下，目标只是维持6%以上的增长。如果把疫情特殊期间拉平看，2021年GDP目标相较于2019年仅增长8.6%，两年平均增速仅为4.3%。由此可见，中国宏观经济增速下台阶较为明显。\nGDP是所有行业平均增长的标尺，有的行业已经负增长，大多数行业则会维持不足5%的增长，而只有小部分行业才可以维持10%，乃至20%的高增长了。当然，传统行业增速大多只有个位数，甚至不增长，期望着行业龙头们动不动20%，乃至30%的高增长其实不太现实了。\n万科历史最高股价，定格在2018年1月，格力当前价格与2018年1月基本持平。这两家是房地产、家电行业最具代表性的超级龙头。为什么2018年之后股价就涨不动了呢？答案在行业上，自从2018年以后，宏观层面很显然是受到了房地产周期的影响和冲击。\n2016年，中国商品房销售面积同比增速高达22.5%，房地产景气度非常高。在此高基数的背景下，2017年仍然取得7.7%的同比增速。但2018年增速大幅下滑至1.3%，2019年则变为-0.1%。可见，2017年、2018年是这一轮房地产高景气度的高点，此后便走下坡路了。\n\n房地产、家电是传统行业最为典型的代表，当然银行、重工机械、水泥、传统商超、保险、食品饮料（部分）行业的周期早早迈过了成长性，进入成熟期，必然会跟着宏观经济增速继续下台阶。\n增长不动了（基本面边际恶化），估值就会下移，回报率就会大打折扣，自然而然会被主流市场抛弃。当然，即便是增速很慢的行业，却企业能够力挽狂澜，抢占对手市场份额实现高增长，但这样的企业实在太少太少，手指头都能数得过来。招行是其中一个典型代表。\n天下大势，浩浩汤汤，顺之者昌，逆之者亡。多数企业，包括龙头会随着行业增速见顶下移，陷入激烈的存量竞争，市场也会毫不犹豫给出难以置信的低估值倍数。\n那么，有人会问了，相别于传统行业，互联网行业前景非常好，为什么巨头们也会被市场狠狠踩在脚下呢？\n这些年，互联网行业早已把人口、流量红利给吃完了。互联网无疑也进入了存量竞争。在这一环境下，互联网巨头们想要维持高增长，唯有突破原有的边界，去蚕食更多传统行业的蛋糕，来满足自己的高速扩张。社区团购就是一个典型。\n但这不利于政府的目标函数，不利于大多数人的广泛利益。很快，监管层重拳出手了。 今年4月，阿里被罚181亿。这是一个标志性事件，代表着中国互联网最野蛮生长的时代结束了。从此往后，强监管将会是一个常态，也给互联网行业的发展带上了紧箍咒。从一度程度上讲，这也意味着互联网行业也越来越像“传统行业”靠齐。 \n监管频频出手背后，中国互联网的发展前景都不会再如去年之前那般光明。高速、持续增长的前景已经发生了较为深刻的变化。这波互联网巨头大跌也在预期这种宏观行业层面的变化。\n不管是传统行业，还是看起来前景不错的互联网行业，随着宏观经济的持续下台阶，几乎不可避免会进入内卷状态，未来这些行业的龙头们的业绩增速也不会有此前预期那么乐观，逐渐下台阶才是大势所趋。当然股价不可避免会很萎靡，投资者会很煎熬。\n一代新人换旧人，随便买入市场公认白马股而躺赚的时代过去了。这有点类似投资房产。过去10多年，闭着眼睛随便买房子怎么都是赚。但当前，投资买房已经发生了明显的逻辑变化，再逆势而流，必将撞得头破血流。\n3\n未来方向\n未来，市场结构性分化将会是常态。因为我们的经济体，本身就有产业兴，有产业落，有公司兴，有公司落，有产业正处在顺周期，有产业处在逆周期。普涨是奢望，分化才是常态。\n前文所提行业，不知不觉都进入了行业的成熟周期。但产业更替，一定还有不少行业正在孕育新的投资机会。当前，光伏、新能源汽车、医疗医美为什么反复被市场追捧，不断上涨？答案很简单，行业处在高速成长期（下图萌芽期），增量蛋糕很大，龙头们增速更快，自然会给到非常高的估值。\n\n今年6月，新能源汽车销量为25.6万辆，整个汽车销量为201.5万辆，新能源车的渗透率已经达到12.7%，跨过10%的重要分水岭。新能源车未来几年的景气度会很高，成长性会很强。这是最近2年市场疯狂炒新能源车的重要逻辑。\n当然了，饭要一口一口吃，高估值还要等一等没有上来业绩灵魂。比如当前，宁德时代不足100亿的利润支撑起了1.2万的市值，怎么看都觉得疯狂了些。\n抓住那些未来高增长、且有持续性的行业，配置有潜力的公司，才是未来投资的大方向。新能源、医疗医美、光伏等行业有长长的坡，厚厚的雪，机会众多，牛股会倍出。\n不光是投资者，本身处在传统行业的巨头们也在积极自救，通过资本的方式扩张新赛道，想要曲线实现业绩增长。2017年，美的斥资近300亿收购库卡公司，正式进入机器人领域，但天有不测风云，最后结果不尽如意。\n但美的还在行动，今年2月斥资23亿入主万东医疗，7月初全额认购不超过20.83亿定增份额，两次动作之后，持股比例已经超过40%，成为公司控股股东。万东医疗主营影像类医疗器械的研发、制造、生产，及影像诊断服务，是一个妥妥的好赛道啊。\n\n未来主流配置方向，市场已经较为有效地指明了方向。但这并不意味着要马上就要去配置，还要考虑估值，否者短期可能面临巨大的回撤风险。\n未来，投资赚钱难度更大，因为多数行业陷入内卷，多数个股会走向香港化，持续阴跌会是常态，投资者要做好心理准备。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170325079,"gmtCreate":1626406213191,"gmtModify":1633927022045,"author":{"id":"3586549737202999","authorId":"3586549737202999","name":"Jasonteo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c65e51a6c7aa32f9d87734f24dea5af2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586549737202999","idStr":"3586549737202999"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good [财迷] ","listText":"Good [财迷] ","text":"Good [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170325079","repostId":"2151574294","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151574294","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626405726,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2151574294?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-16 11:22","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"财报前瞻 | 爱立信：业绩股价双丰收？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151574294","media":"智通财经","summary":"爱立信将于7月16日(周五)美股盘前公布2021年第二季度财务业绩。\n市场预期爱立信Q2营收将达66.5亿美元，上一季度为57亿美元，环比增长16.67%；GAAP每股收益为0.15美元，上一季度为0","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ERIC\">爱立信</a>将于7月16日(周五)美股盘前公布2021年第二季度财务业绩。</p>\n<p>市场预期爱立信Q2营收将达66.5亿美元，上一季度为57亿美元，环比增长16.67%；GAAP每股收益为0.15美元，上一季度为0.11美元，环比增长36.00%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1308484142330e87da7be7ec375681\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"342\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在过往的时间里，业绩公布当日，爱立信股价表现都非常强势。</p>\n<p>在过去的12个季度业绩公布日期间，83%的时间里，该股均出现显著的上涨，当日的回报率中值为+5.6%。</p>\n<p>在过去3年的数据中，该股仅两次出现下跌，其中在2019年7月17日，最大跌幅达-11.0%。</p>\n<p>而在2020年7月17日，该股录得最大涨幅13.2%。</p>\n<p>从过往的表现可以看到，股价波动主要由业绩表现和开盘跳空缺口相关，但似乎与实际业绩数据和预期值之前差距没有太大关系。</p>\n<p>例如，该股出现最大涨幅(+13.2%)时，其每股收益超出预期0.01美元，销售额超出预期1.83亿美元。</p>\n<p>但是，当该股出现最大跌幅(-11.0%)时，其每股收益低于预期0.02美元，但销售额却超出预期3.49亿美元。在该股出现第二大跌幅(-7.2%)期间，其每股收益超出预期0.01美元，销售额超出预期1.35亿美元，这或许表明该公司的业绩指引可能是该股价格走势的另一个促成因素。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d075a73438768ff55cadef1bd880b342\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>另外，在业绩公布后的交易日中，从统计数据来看，爱立信股价表现往往呈现下降趋势。大多数统计结果都倾向于下跌，在每一个统计区间都回报率中值都为负数。不过，当股价走势为正时，上升趋势更为明显，2周后的最大正回报率可达+9.5%，而最大负回报率为-7.4%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fba29f7802b936d7e3fe013c51f83c8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"771\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻 | 爱立信：业绩股价双丰收？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻 | 爱立信：业绩股价双丰收？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-16 11:22 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/515525.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>爱立信将于7月16日(周五)美股盘前公布2021年第二季度财务业绩。\n市场预期爱立信Q2营收将达66.5亿美元，上一季度为57亿美元，环比增长16.67%；GAAP每股收益为0.15美元，上一季度为0.11美元，环比增长36.00%。\n\n在过往的时间里，业绩公布当日，爱立信股价表现都非常强势。\n在过去的12个季度业绩公布日期间，83%的时间里，该股均出现显著的上涨，当日的回报率中值为+5.6%。\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/515525.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012ea6b400e3c70cdfb6e24e78e71a62","relate_stocks":{"ERIC":"爱立信"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/515525.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2151574294","content_text":"爱立信将于7月16日(周五)美股盘前公布2021年第二季度财务业绩。\n市场预期爱立信Q2营收将达66.5亿美元，上一季度为57亿美元，环比增长16.67%；GAAP每股收益为0.15美元，上一季度为0.11美元，环比增长36.00%。\n\n在过往的时间里，业绩公布当日，爱立信股价表现都非常强势。\n在过去的12个季度业绩公布日期间，83%的时间里，该股均出现显著的上涨，当日的回报率中值为+5.6%。\n在过去3年的数据中，该股仅两次出现下跌，其中在2019年7月17日，最大跌幅达-11.0%。\n而在2020年7月17日，该股录得最大涨幅13.2%。\n从过往的表现可以看到，股价波动主要由业绩表现和开盘跳空缺口相关，但似乎与实际业绩数据和预期值之前差距没有太大关系。\n例如，该股出现最大涨幅(+13.2%)时，其每股收益超出预期0.01美元，销售额超出预期1.83亿美元。\n但是，当该股出现最大跌幅(-11.0%)时，其每股收益低于预期0.02美元，但销售额却超出预期3.49亿美元。在该股出现第二大跌幅(-7.2%)期间，其每股收益超出预期0.01美元，销售额超出预期1.35亿美元，这或许表明该公司的业绩指引可能是该股价格走势的另一个促成因素。\n\n另外，在业绩公布后的交易日中，从统计数据来看，爱立信股价表现往往呈现下降趋势。大多数统计结果都倾向于下跌，在每一个统计区间都回报率中值都为负数。不过，当股价走势为正时，上升趋势更为明显，2周后的最大正回报率可达+9.5%，而最大负回报率为-7.4%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1060,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":142818216,"gmtCreate":1626140518635,"gmtModify":1633929737412,"author":{"id":"3586549737202999","authorId":"3586549737202999","name":"Jasonteo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c65e51a6c7aa32f9d87734f24dea5af2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586549737202999","idStr":"3586549737202999"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142818216","repostId":"1199045893","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199045893","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626139221,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199045893?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-13 09:20","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"开盘：恒指开涨0.65%，两新股首挂双双破发","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199045893","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月13日，恒生指数开盘上涨178.79点，涨幅0.65%，报27694.03点；国企指数开盘上涨49.98点，涨幅0.5%，报9995.71点；红筹指数开盘上涨18.1点，涨幅0.47%，报3867","content":"<p>7月13日，恒生指数开盘上涨178.79点，涨幅0.65%，报27694.03点；国企指数开盘上涨49.98点，涨幅0.5%，报9995.71点；红筹指数开盘上涨18.1点，涨幅0.47%，报3867.61点。</p>\n<p>恒生科技指数涨0.54%，大型科技股反弹，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">京东集团-SW</a>均涨逾1%；</p>\n<p>港股手游股涨幅居前，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02660\">禅游科技</a>涨3.36%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">网易-S</a>涨2.13%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00302\">中手游</a>涨0.52%；</p>\n<p>新股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06913\">华南职业教育</a>上市首日破发，开跌8.8%，发行价为1.59港元/股；</p>\n<p>新股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02137\">腾盛博药-B</a>上市首日破发，开跌近4%，发行价22.25港元/股；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01799\">新特能源</a>高开5.75% 预期上半年拥有人应占利润不少于11.5亿元；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09969\">诺诚健华-B</a>高开超4%创新高 与渤健就奥布替尼达成许可及合作协议。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>开盘：恒指开涨0.65%，两新股首挂双双破发</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n开盘：恒指开涨0.65%，两新股首挂双双破发\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-13 09:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>7月13日，恒生指数开盘上涨178.79点，涨幅0.65%，报27694.03点；国企指数开盘上涨49.98点，涨幅0.5%，报9995.71点；红筹指数开盘上涨18.1点，涨幅0.47%，报3867.61点。</p>\n<p>恒生科技指数涨0.54%，大型科技股反弹，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">京东集团-SW</a>均涨逾1%；</p>\n<p>港股手游股涨幅居前，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02660\">禅游科技</a>涨3.36%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">网易-S</a>涨2.13%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00302\">中手游</a>涨0.52%；</p>\n<p>新股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06913\">华南职业教育</a>上市首日破发，开跌8.8%，发行价为1.59港元/股；</p>\n<p>新股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02137\">腾盛博药-B</a>上市首日破发，开跌近4%，发行价22.25港元/股；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01799\">新特能源</a>高开5.75% 预期上半年拥有人应占利润不少于11.5亿元；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09969\">诺诚健华-B</a>高开超4%创新高 与渤健就奥布替尼达成许可及合作协议。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"513600":"恒生指数ETF","HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSI":"恒生指数","HSCEI":"国企指数","02833":"恒指ETF","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199045893","content_text":"7月13日，恒生指数开盘上涨178.79点，涨幅0.65%，报27694.03点；国企指数开盘上涨49.98点，涨幅0.5%，报9995.71点；红筹指数开盘上涨18.1点，涨幅0.47%，报3867.61点。\n恒生科技指数涨0.54%，大型科技股反弹，腾讯控股、阿里巴巴、百度集团-SW、京东集团-SW均涨逾1%；\n港股手游股涨幅居前，禅游科技涨3.36%，网易-S涨2.13%，中手游涨0.52%；\n新股华南职业教育上市首日破发，开跌8.8%，发行价为1.59港元/股；\n新股腾盛博药-B上市首日破发，开跌近4%，发行价22.25港元/股；\n新特能源高开5.75% 预期上半年拥有人应占利润不少于11.5亿元；\n诺诚健华-B高开超4%创新高 与渤健就奥布替尼达成许可及合作协议。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146119600,"gmtCreate":1626058265900,"gmtModify":1633930548201,"author":{"id":"3586549737202999","authorId":"3586549737202999","name":"Jasonteo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c65e51a6c7aa32f9d87734f24dea5af2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586549737202999","idStr":"3586549737202999"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146119600","repostId":"2150309877","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146194630,"gmtCreate":1626057548420,"gmtModify":1633930558469,"author":{"id":"3586549737202999","authorId":"3586549737202999","name":"Jasonteo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c65e51a6c7aa32f9d87734f24dea5af2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586549737202999","idStr":"3586549737202999"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Excited ","listText":"Excited ","text":"Excited","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146194630","repostId":"1128521631","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146196580,"gmtCreate":1626057341740,"gmtModify":1633930560498,"author":{"id":"3586549737202999","authorId":"3586549737202999","name":"Jasonteo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c65e51a6c7aa32f9d87734f24dea5af2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586549737202999","idStr":"3586549737202999"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Excited ","listText":"Excited ","text":"Excited","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146196580","repostId":"2150583935","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159861167,"gmtCreate":1624956261359,"gmtModify":1633946546969,"author":{"id":"3586549737202999","authorId":"3586549737202999","name":"Jasonteo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c65e51a6c7aa32f9d87734f24dea5af2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586549737202999","idStr":"3586549737202999"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159861167","repostId":"1176326573","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176326573","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624955903,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176326573?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-29 16:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Most Epic Back-to-School Season Ever: 2 Stocks to Watch","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176326573","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Spending usually increases with back-to-school shopping. That effect could be magnified this year.","content":"<p>The 2021 back-to-school shopping season could be the most epic ever. Millions of students worldwide will be preparing to return to in-person learning for the first time since March 2020.</p>\n<p>The coronavirus pandemic forced an abrupt shift to online instruction for students of all ages. The return has been more gradual, as some states and countries have already brought students back to in-person learning. Still, the fall semester of school will see the biggest group yet returning from remote instruction.</p>\n<p>Two companies that are in a position to benefit from students returning to school are <b>Target</b>(NYSE:TGT) and <b>Chegg</b>(NYSE:CHGG). Let's take a closer look at why investors should keep an eye on these two stocks.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2446f442d6523793c8a0dc8b18bda9c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p>\n<p><b>1. Target</b></p>\n<p>A return to in-person learning can create the need for students to buy school supplies, clothes, and electronics, all of which can be found in one trip to Target. My son started the pandemic in kindergarten, and when he goes back to school in August, he will be a second-grader. He will need new clothes, new shoes, and other school supplies.</p>\n<p>Surely, that will be the case for millions of students worldwide. What's different for this year is the especially longer time it has been since kids were last in school. In a typical back-to-school season, sales are brisk, even though students were out of school for a few months through summer. This time around, kids haven't been in school for over a year, so sales could be even greater. Investors should keep an eye on how that plays out.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d614dbcb6f3f07da000561aa012342fb\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>COLLEGE ENROLLMENT FELL BY 603,000 STUDENTS IN SPRING 2021. IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p>\n<p><b>2. Chegg</b></p>\n<p>Chegg, the online student learning aid, experienced a surge in demand during the pandemic. The company serves mostly college and high school students, and when instruction moved online, students were missing the vital interaction with instructors and teachers. Still, subscriber growth was robust even in the years before the pandemic. Studentsfind its services helpfuland a relative bargain at less than $20 per month.</p>\n<p>The pandemic wasn't all positive for Chegg's business. Many college students with the choice of going through remote instruction or taking time off chose the latter. Indeed, college enrollment fell by 603,000 students in the spring semester of 2021, the biggest decline in a decade. Further, many students who chose to attend college instead of taking a semester off registered for fewer classes than they normally would.</p>\n<p>With nearly all colleges offering in-person instruction in the fall semester, enrollment will likely increase; students are also likely to take more classes to make up for the lost time. That means more potentialstudents that could benefitfrom Chegg's services.</p>\n<p><b>Investor takeaway</b></p>\n<p>The back-to-school surge in spending at Target and Chegg could be an extension of a COVID-induced increase in revenue. As economies reopened, there was a worry amonginvestorsof a snapback of spending at businesses like Target and Chegg that benefited during the pandemic. The thesis has not played out, and it could be giving credence to the counterargument that habits formed during the pandemic are going to stick around long term. Target and Chegg are certainly working at helping consumers maintain those habits and stick with them.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Most Epic Back-to-School Season Ever: 2 Stocks to Watch</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Most Epic Back-to-School Season Ever: 2 Stocks to Watch\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-29 16:38 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/28/back-to-school-season-stocks-watch-target-chegg/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The 2021 back-to-school shopping season could be the most epic ever. Millions of students worldwide will be preparing to return to in-person learning for the first time since March 2020.\nThe ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/28/back-to-school-season-stocks-watch-target-chegg/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CHGG":"Chegg Inc","TGT":"塔吉特"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/28/back-to-school-season-stocks-watch-target-chegg/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176326573","content_text":"The 2021 back-to-school shopping season could be the most epic ever. Millions of students worldwide will be preparing to return to in-person learning for the first time since March 2020.\nThe coronavirus pandemic forced an abrupt shift to online instruction for students of all ages. The return has been more gradual, as some states and countries have already brought students back to in-person learning. Still, the fall semester of school will see the biggest group yet returning from remote instruction.\nTwo companies that are in a position to benefit from students returning to school are Target(NYSE:TGT) and Chegg(NYSE:CHGG). Let's take a closer look at why investors should keep an eye on these two stocks.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n1. Target\nA return to in-person learning can create the need for students to buy school supplies, clothes, and electronics, all of which can be found in one trip to Target. My son started the pandemic in kindergarten, and when he goes back to school in August, he will be a second-grader. He will need new clothes, new shoes, and other school supplies.\nSurely, that will be the case for millions of students worldwide. What's different for this year is the especially longer time it has been since kids were last in school. In a typical back-to-school season, sales are brisk, even though students were out of school for a few months through summer. This time around, kids haven't been in school for over a year, so sales could be even greater. Investors should keep an eye on how that plays out.\nCOLLEGE ENROLLMENT FELL BY 603,000 STUDENTS IN SPRING 2021. IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n2. Chegg\nChegg, the online student learning aid, experienced a surge in demand during the pandemic. The company serves mostly college and high school students, and when instruction moved online, students were missing the vital interaction with instructors and teachers. Still, subscriber growth was robust even in the years before the pandemic. Studentsfind its services helpfuland a relative bargain at less than $20 per month.\nThe pandemic wasn't all positive for Chegg's business. Many college students with the choice of going through remote instruction or taking time off chose the latter. Indeed, college enrollment fell by 603,000 students in the spring semester of 2021, the biggest decline in a decade. Further, many students who chose to attend college instead of taking a semester off registered for fewer classes than they normally would.\nWith nearly all colleges offering in-person instruction in the fall semester, enrollment will likely increase; students are also likely to take more classes to make up for the lost time. That means more potentialstudents that could benefitfrom Chegg's services.\nInvestor takeaway\nThe back-to-school surge in spending at Target and Chegg could be an extension of a COVID-induced increase in revenue. As economies reopened, there was a worry amonginvestorsof a snapback of spending at businesses like Target and Chegg that benefited during the pandemic. The thesis has not played out, and it could be giving credence to the counterargument that habits formed during the pandemic are going to stick around long term. Target and Chegg are certainly working at helping consumers maintain those habits and stick with them.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127853167,"gmtCreate":1624843997359,"gmtModify":1633948110706,"author":{"id":"3586549737202999","authorId":"3586549737202999","name":"Jasonteo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c65e51a6c7aa32f9d87734f24dea5af2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586549737202999","idStr":"3586549737202999"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good ","listText":"Good ","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127853167","repostId":"2146007781","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":435,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":802614170,"gmtCreate":1627776593790,"gmtModify":1633756574881,"author":{"id":"3586549737202999","authorId":"3586549737202999","name":"Jasonteo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c65e51a6c7aa32f9d87734f24dea5af2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586549737202999","idStr":"3586549737202999"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802614170","repostId":"1165085669","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159861167,"gmtCreate":1624956261359,"gmtModify":1633946546969,"author":{"id":"3586549737202999","authorId":"3586549737202999","name":"Jasonteo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c65e51a6c7aa32f9d87734f24dea5af2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586549737202999","idStr":"3586549737202999"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159861167","repostId":"1176326573","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176326573","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624955903,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176326573?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-29 16:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Most Epic Back-to-School Season Ever: 2 Stocks to Watch","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176326573","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Spending usually increases with back-to-school shopping. That effect could be magnified this year.","content":"<p>The 2021 back-to-school shopping season could be the most epic ever. Millions of students worldwide will be preparing to return to in-person learning for the first time since March 2020.</p>\n<p>The coronavirus pandemic forced an abrupt shift to online instruction for students of all ages. The return has been more gradual, as some states and countries have already brought students back to in-person learning. Still, the fall semester of school will see the biggest group yet returning from remote instruction.</p>\n<p>Two companies that are in a position to benefit from students returning to school are <b>Target</b>(NYSE:TGT) and <b>Chegg</b>(NYSE:CHGG). Let's take a closer look at why investors should keep an eye on these two stocks.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2446f442d6523793c8a0dc8b18bda9c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p>\n<p><b>1. Target</b></p>\n<p>A return to in-person learning can create the need for students to buy school supplies, clothes, and electronics, all of which can be found in one trip to Target. My son started the pandemic in kindergarten, and when he goes back to school in August, he will be a second-grader. He will need new clothes, new shoes, and other school supplies.</p>\n<p>Surely, that will be the case for millions of students worldwide. What's different for this year is the especially longer time it has been since kids were last in school. In a typical back-to-school season, sales are brisk, even though students were out of school for a few months through summer. This time around, kids haven't been in school for over a year, so sales could be even greater. Investors should keep an eye on how that plays out.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d614dbcb6f3f07da000561aa012342fb\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>COLLEGE ENROLLMENT FELL BY 603,000 STUDENTS IN SPRING 2021. IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p>\n<p><b>2. Chegg</b></p>\n<p>Chegg, the online student learning aid, experienced a surge in demand during the pandemic. The company serves mostly college and high school students, and when instruction moved online, students were missing the vital interaction with instructors and teachers. Still, subscriber growth was robust even in the years before the pandemic. Studentsfind its services helpfuland a relative bargain at less than $20 per month.</p>\n<p>The pandemic wasn't all positive for Chegg's business. Many college students with the choice of going through remote instruction or taking time off chose the latter. Indeed, college enrollment fell by 603,000 students in the spring semester of 2021, the biggest decline in a decade. Further, many students who chose to attend college instead of taking a semester off registered for fewer classes than they normally would.</p>\n<p>With nearly all colleges offering in-person instruction in the fall semester, enrollment will likely increase; students are also likely to take more classes to make up for the lost time. That means more potentialstudents that could benefitfrom Chegg's services.</p>\n<p><b>Investor takeaway</b></p>\n<p>The back-to-school surge in spending at Target and Chegg could be an extension of a COVID-induced increase in revenue. As economies reopened, there was a worry amonginvestorsof a snapback of spending at businesses like Target and Chegg that benefited during the pandemic. The thesis has not played out, and it could be giving credence to the counterargument that habits formed during the pandemic are going to stick around long term. Target and Chegg are certainly working at helping consumers maintain those habits and stick with them.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Most Epic Back-to-School Season Ever: 2 Stocks to Watch</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Most Epic Back-to-School Season Ever: 2 Stocks to Watch\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-29 16:38 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/28/back-to-school-season-stocks-watch-target-chegg/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The 2021 back-to-school shopping season could be the most epic ever. Millions of students worldwide will be preparing to return to in-person learning for the first time since March 2020.\nThe ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/28/back-to-school-season-stocks-watch-target-chegg/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CHGG":"Chegg Inc","TGT":"塔吉特"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/28/back-to-school-season-stocks-watch-target-chegg/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176326573","content_text":"The 2021 back-to-school shopping season could be the most epic ever. Millions of students worldwide will be preparing to return to in-person learning for the first time since March 2020.\nThe coronavirus pandemic forced an abrupt shift to online instruction for students of all ages. The return has been more gradual, as some states and countries have already brought students back to in-person learning. Still, the fall semester of school will see the biggest group yet returning from remote instruction.\nTwo companies that are in a position to benefit from students returning to school are Target(NYSE:TGT) and Chegg(NYSE:CHGG). Let's take a closer look at why investors should keep an eye on these two stocks.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n1. Target\nA return to in-person learning can create the need for students to buy school supplies, clothes, and electronics, all of which can be found in one trip to Target. My son started the pandemic in kindergarten, and when he goes back to school in August, he will be a second-grader. He will need new clothes, new shoes, and other school supplies.\nSurely, that will be the case for millions of students worldwide. What's different for this year is the especially longer time it has been since kids were last in school. In a typical back-to-school season, sales are brisk, even though students were out of school for a few months through summer. This time around, kids haven't been in school for over a year, so sales could be even greater. Investors should keep an eye on how that plays out.\nCOLLEGE ENROLLMENT FELL BY 603,000 STUDENTS IN SPRING 2021. IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n2. Chegg\nChegg, the online student learning aid, experienced a surge in demand during the pandemic. The company serves mostly college and high school students, and when instruction moved online, students were missing the vital interaction with instructors and teachers. Still, subscriber growth was robust even in the years before the pandemic. Studentsfind its services helpfuland a relative bargain at less than $20 per month.\nThe pandemic wasn't all positive for Chegg's business. Many college students with the choice of going through remote instruction or taking time off chose the latter. Indeed, college enrollment fell by 603,000 students in the spring semester of 2021, the biggest decline in a decade. Further, many students who chose to attend college instead of taking a semester off registered for fewer classes than they normally would.\nWith nearly all colleges offering in-person instruction in the fall semester, enrollment will likely increase; students are also likely to take more classes to make up for the lost time. That means more potentialstudents that could benefitfrom Chegg's services.\nInvestor takeaway\nThe back-to-school surge in spending at Target and Chegg could be an extension of a COVID-induced increase in revenue. As economies reopened, there was a worry amonginvestorsof a snapback of spending at businesses like Target and Chegg that benefited during the pandemic. The thesis has not played out, and it could be giving credence to the counterargument that habits formed during the pandemic are going to stick around long term. Target and Chegg are certainly working at helping consumers maintain those habits and stick with them.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170325079,"gmtCreate":1626406213191,"gmtModify":1633927022045,"author":{"id":"3586549737202999","authorId":"3586549737202999","name":"Jasonteo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c65e51a6c7aa32f9d87734f24dea5af2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586549737202999","idStr":"3586549737202999"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good [财迷] ","listText":"Good [财迷] ","text":"Good [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170325079","repostId":"2151574294","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151574294","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626405726,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2151574294?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-16 11:22","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"财报前瞻 | 爱立信：业绩股价双丰收？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151574294","media":"智通财经","summary":"爱立信将于7月16日(周五)美股盘前公布2021年第二季度财务业绩。\n市场预期爱立信Q2营收将达66.5亿美元，上一季度为57亿美元，环比增长16.67%；GAAP每股收益为0.15美元，上一季度为0","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ERIC\">爱立信</a>将于7月16日(周五)美股盘前公布2021年第二季度财务业绩。</p>\n<p>市场预期爱立信Q2营收将达66.5亿美元，上一季度为57亿美元，环比增长16.67%；GAAP每股收益为0.15美元，上一季度为0.11美元，环比增长36.00%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1308484142330e87da7be7ec375681\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"342\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在过往的时间里，业绩公布当日，爱立信股价表现都非常强势。</p>\n<p>在过去的12个季度业绩公布日期间，83%的时间里，该股均出现显著的上涨，当日的回报率中值为+5.6%。</p>\n<p>在过去3年的数据中，该股仅两次出现下跌，其中在2019年7月17日，最大跌幅达-11.0%。</p>\n<p>而在2020年7月17日，该股录得最大涨幅13.2%。</p>\n<p>从过往的表现可以看到，股价波动主要由业绩表现和开盘跳空缺口相关，但似乎与实际业绩数据和预期值之前差距没有太大关系。</p>\n<p>例如，该股出现最大涨幅(+13.2%)时，其每股收益超出预期0.01美元，销售额超出预期1.83亿美元。</p>\n<p>但是，当该股出现最大跌幅(-11.0%)时，其每股收益低于预期0.02美元，但销售额却超出预期3.49亿美元。在该股出现第二大跌幅(-7.2%)期间，其每股收益超出预期0.01美元，销售额超出预期1.35亿美元，这或许表明该公司的业绩指引可能是该股价格走势的另一个促成因素。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d075a73438768ff55cadef1bd880b342\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>另外，在业绩公布后的交易日中，从统计数据来看，爱立信股价表现往往呈现下降趋势。大多数统计结果都倾向于下跌，在每一个统计区间都回报率中值都为负数。不过，当股价走势为正时，上升趋势更为明显，2周后的最大正回报率可达+9.5%，而最大负回报率为-7.4%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fba29f7802b936d7e3fe013c51f83c8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"771\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻 | 爱立信：业绩股价双丰收？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻 | 爱立信：业绩股价双丰收？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-16 11:22 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/515525.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>爱立信将于7月16日(周五)美股盘前公布2021年第二季度财务业绩。\n市场预期爱立信Q2营收将达66.5亿美元，上一季度为57亿美元，环比增长16.67%；GAAP每股收益为0.15美元，上一季度为0.11美元，环比增长36.00%。\n\n在过往的时间里，业绩公布当日，爱立信股价表现都非常强势。\n在过去的12个季度业绩公布日期间，83%的时间里，该股均出现显著的上涨，当日的回报率中值为+5.6%。\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/515525.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012ea6b400e3c70cdfb6e24e78e71a62","relate_stocks":{"ERIC":"爱立信"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/515525.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2151574294","content_text":"爱立信将于7月16日(周五)美股盘前公布2021年第二季度财务业绩。\n市场预期爱立信Q2营收将达66.5亿美元，上一季度为57亿美元，环比增长16.67%；GAAP每股收益为0.15美元，上一季度为0.11美元，环比增长36.00%。\n\n在过往的时间里，业绩公布当日，爱立信股价表现都非常强势。\n在过去的12个季度业绩公布日期间，83%的时间里，该股均出现显著的上涨，当日的回报率中值为+5.6%。\n在过去3年的数据中，该股仅两次出现下跌，其中在2019年7月17日，最大跌幅达-11.0%。\n而在2020年7月17日，该股录得最大涨幅13.2%。\n从过往的表现可以看到，股价波动主要由业绩表现和开盘跳空缺口相关，但似乎与实际业绩数据和预期值之前差距没有太大关系。\n例如，该股出现最大涨幅(+13.2%)时，其每股收益超出预期0.01美元，销售额超出预期1.83亿美元。\n但是，当该股出现最大跌幅(-11.0%)时，其每股收益低于预期0.02美元，但销售额却超出预期3.49亿美元。在该股出现第二大跌幅(-7.2%)期间，其每股收益超出预期0.01美元，销售额超出预期1.35亿美元，这或许表明该公司的业绩指引可能是该股价格走势的另一个促成因素。\n\n另外，在业绩公布后的交易日中，从统计数据来看，爱立信股价表现往往呈现下降趋势。大多数统计结果都倾向于下跌，在每一个统计区间都回报率中值都为负数。不过，当股价走势为正时，上升趋势更为明显，2周后的最大正回报率可达+9.5%，而最大负回报率为-7.4%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1060,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":146194630,"gmtCreate":1626057548420,"gmtModify":1633930558469,"author":{"id":"3586549737202999","authorId":"3586549737202999","name":"Jasonteo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c65e51a6c7aa32f9d87734f24dea5af2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586549737202999","idStr":"3586549737202999"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Excited ","listText":"Excited ","text":"Excited","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146194630","repostId":"1128521631","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171283674,"gmtCreate":1626746246698,"gmtModify":1633771455608,"author":{"id":"3586549737202999","authorId":"3586549737202999","name":"Jasonteo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c65e51a6c7aa32f9d87734f24dea5af2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586549737202999","idStr":"3586549737202999"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍","listText":"👍👍","text":"👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171283674","repostId":"2152955658","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2152955658","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626743134,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2152955658?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 09:05","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"大白马们，终究还是一地鸡毛","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2152955658","media":"格隆汇","summary":"大白马暴跌大多都是从今年2月18日开始的，短短5个月蒸发市值高达数万亿人民币。","content":"<p>上周五，欧美股市集体大跌。今日，亚太股市跟随之，表现不佳。其中，港股恒指大跌近2%，互联网巨头们再度狂泻。A股沪指和深成指盘中跌近1%但给V回来了，但整体还是处于盘整弱势的状态。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb01eecc9957ad13104a045303839fc2\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">这让股友们想起前几天李大霄同志极度罕见的看空言论。他在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>发文说到，当前A股整体风险还不明显，但局部已经出现了一些明显的风险。他列了5条看空理由，<b>其中一条直指创业板估值过高，已经渐渐接近2015年5178点的水平。</b></p>\n<p>是的，创业板指风险很大，当前PE高达61.7倍，几乎位列全球主流股指估值的NO.1。权重占比15%的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>持续大涨，带动创业板指持续飙升。但有没有想过一个问题，如果宁德开启回调，创业板指会不会崩得很难看？<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8548724e2b26f9b3aba65279d8b9f71\" tg-width=\"1001\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>按照机构预测，宁德2021年大致有100亿利润，但现在却支撑了1.2万亿市值，多少有些头重脚轻。7月15日，是创业板公司发布业绩预告的截止时间。宁德没有发预告，最有可能的因素是中期利润同比幅度不超过50%，而一季度同比增长112%。大家怎么看？</p>\n<p>其实，包括宁德在内的少数白马暴走的同时，A股一大批白马早已经跌得溃不成军了。</p>\n<h3>1</h3>\n<h3><b>白马神话破灭</b></h3>\n<p>传统行业中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000876\">新希望</a>自从高点下跌70%，永辉跌60%，三一、双汇、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600872\">中炬高新</a>跌逾50%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300999\">金龙鱼</a>、顺丰、上机跌逾45%，牧原跌42%，平安、海螺跌逾35%，伊利、万科、美的跌逾30%。格力跌了26%，跌幅不算多，但股价4年没涨了。</p>\n<p>互联网行业中，快手跌65%，美团跌38%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>跌30%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>跌27%，阿里跌22%。大医药行业中，恒瑞暴跌38%，体检茅<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002044\">美年健康</a>跌56%。</p>\n<p><b>这批大白马暴跌大多都是从今年2月18日开始的，短短5个月蒸发市值高达数万亿人民币。</b>它们均是各大行业的龙头，也就是这几年被投资者挂在嘴边的核心资产。</p>\n<p>那么，问题来了，这批白马去年被极度看好，绝大多数公司股价还创下历史新高。短短几个月，风云突变，被市场大幅抛弃，究竟为何？</p>\n<p>市值大跌，无非两个层面的因素，一个是基本面，一个是估值，前者往往决定着后者的表现。</p>\n<p>传统行业中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000333\">美的集团</a>是典型代表。在218年崩盘之前，估值倍数去到了30倍+，创下了美的2013年上市以来的最高记录。<b>估值高，无非是市场预期业绩能够保持高速增长，且能够有持续性，但这样的逻辑并不可靠，今年被证伪了。</b></p>\n<p>2017-2020年，美的营收同比增速为51.35%、8.23%、6.71%、2.27%，归母净利润增速分别为17.7%、17%、19.7%、12.44%。今年一季度，归母净利润为64.7亿，同比增速34.5%，主要因素是去年一季度基数太低导致的，2019年Q1净利润就有61.3亿，相当于2年时间累增5.5%，平均增速仅为2.7%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e348fc2c3801b34df6fe1a15b3ea616e\" tg-width=\"1002\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>业绩增速不断下台阶，正常情况下，估值应该持续往下走，但去年由于市场作妖，疯狂抱团，美的估值却逆向大涨。<b>显然，疯狂的投机游戏结束了，一地鸡毛。</b></p>\n<p>大医药行业中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600276\">恒瑞医药</a>去年累涨53%。到今年年初，估值倍数一度去到了103倍，同样是历史最高水平。</p>\n<p>一季度，恒瑞营收69.3亿，同比增速25%，归母净利润14.97亿，同比增长13.77%。这个成绩相对过往其实是不合格的，因为去年一季度受到疫情影响，营收和利润受到较大冲击，基数较低。要知道，在疫情之前的9年间（2011-2019年）的增速处在20%-43%之间，唯有2013年和2016年稍低于20%。</p>\n<p>恒瑞业绩表现不及预期，主要逻辑是研发费用大增。一季度研发费用达到13.16亿元，同比增长62.3%。一季度的研发费用比2017年以前每年的费用还要高得多。这从侧面也说明一个问题，<b>当前的创新药的大背景竞争非常激烈，不得不投入高研发才能维持业绩的增长。</b></p>\n<p>很残酷的是，今年将会是PD-1最后的红利期。2022年的PD-1国家医保谈判将更加惨烈，不论是竞争的企业数量还是大适应症的数量均达到空前激烈的程度。恒瑞在接下来的这一轮又一轮的恶战中，并不占优，且面临大幅降价的困扰，后续恒瑞没有类似PD-1的大单品接龙，业绩增速将会下一个台阶。</p>\n<p>互联网行业，腾讯年初估值倍数去到了52倍，创下3年多新高。但股价持续下跌，也反应出市场对于业绩的增长预期发生了一些变化。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a22ce9c2708667e7793e30dd1d9a31e\" tg-width=\"1001\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>去年，市场造就了一个又一个的白马神话，给投资者带来了足够惊人的回报率。<b>但市场终究要回归理性，估值泡沫在今年被挤破了。</b>并且伴随的是，大多白马业绩基本面出现了一些边际恶化的迹象，并不是去年预期那样所向披靡的业绩大增。</p>\n<h3>2</h3>\n<h3><b>行业内卷化</b></h3>\n<p>按照股票定价模型，现值是公司未来所有现金流总和进行折现的结果。很显然，要维持高估值，唯有未来利润高速增长，且具备持续性才可以。</p>\n<p><b>但中国宏观经济环境，已经不能支撑各大行业的龙头们持续高增长了。</b>这是一个非常现实的问题。</p>\n<p>纵观过去数10年，中国经济增速最为辉煌的是2007年，那一年GDP同比高达14.23%，后基本保持一路下滑的态势——10%、9%、7%，到疫情之前的2019年仅有6.1%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17d98d552496248010a70e1035d64986\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>2020年，中国GDP增速仅有2.3%，可见去年绝大多数行业受到疫情非常大的冲击。今年经济增长压力也很大，在去年低基数的情况下，目标只是维持6%以上的增长。如果把疫情特殊期间拉平看，2021年GDP目标相较于2019年仅增长8.6%，两年平均增速仅为4.3%。由此可见，中国宏观经济增速下台阶较为明显。</p>\n<p>GDP是所有行业平均增长的标尺，有的行业已经负增长，大多数行业则会维持不足5%的增长，而只有小部分行业才可以维持10%，乃至20%的高增长了。<b>当然，传统行业增速大多只有个位数，甚至不增长，期望着行业龙头们动不动20%，乃至30%的高增长其实不太现实了。</b></p>\n<p>万科历史最高股价，定格在2018年1月，格力当前价格与2018年1月基本持平。这两家是房地产、家电行业最具代表性的超级龙头。为什么2018年之后股价就涨不动了呢？<b>答案在行业上，自从2018年以后，宏观层面很显然是受到了房地产周期的影响和冲击。</b></p>\n<p>2016年，中国商品房销售面积同比增速高达22.5%，房地产景气度非常高。在此高基数的背景下，2017年仍然取得7.7%的同比增速。但2018年增速大幅下滑至1.3%，2019年则变为-0.1%。可见，2017年、2018年是这一轮房地产高景气度的高点，此后便走下坡路了。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07858fd8da65a4c3a295f008318fe3ca\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>房地产、家电是传统行业最为典型的代表，当然银行、重工机械、水泥、传统商超、保险、食品饮料（部分）行业的周期早早迈过了成长性，进入成熟期，必然会跟着宏观经济增速继续下台阶。</p>\n<p><b>增长不动了（基本面边际恶化），估值就会下移，回报率就会大打折扣，自然而然会被主流市场抛弃。</b>当然，即便是增速很慢的行业，却企业能够力挽狂澜，抢占对手市场份额实现高增长，但这样的企业实在太少太少，手指头都能数得过来。招行是其中一个典型代表。</p>\n<p>天下大势，浩浩汤汤，顺之者昌，逆之者亡。<b>多数企业，包括龙头会随着行业增速见顶下移，陷入激烈的存量竞争，市场也会毫不犹豫给出难以置信的低估值倍数。</b></p>\n<p>那么，有人会问了，相别于传统行业，互联网行业前景非常好，为什么巨头们也会被市场狠狠踩在脚下呢？</p>\n<p>这些年，互联网行业早已把人口、流量红利给吃完了。互联网无疑也进入了存量竞争。在这一环境下，互联网巨头们想要维持高增长，唯有突破原有的边界，去蚕食更多传统行业的蛋糕，来满足自己的高速扩张。社区团购就是一个典型。</p>\n<p>但这不利于政府的目标函数，不利于大多数人的广泛利益。很快，监管层重拳出手了。 今年4月，阿里被罚181亿。这是一个标志性事件，代表着中国互联网最野蛮生长的时代结束了。从此往后，强监管将会是一个常态，也给互联网行业的发展带上了紧箍咒。<b>从一度程度上讲，这也意味着互联网行业也越来越像“传统行业”靠齐。 </b></p>\n<p>监管频频出手背后，中国互联网的发展前景都不会再如去年之前那般光明。高速、持续增长的前景已经发生了较为深刻的变化。这波互联网巨头大跌也在预期这种宏观行业层面的变化。</p>\n<p>不管是传统行业，还是看起来前景不错的互联网行业，随着宏观经济的持续下台阶，几乎不可避免会进入内卷状态，未来这些行业的龙头们的业绩增速也不会有此前预期那么乐观，逐渐下台阶才是大势所趋。当然股价不可避免会很萎靡，投资者会很煎熬。</p>\n<p><b>一代新人换旧人，随便买入市场公认白马股而躺赚的时代过去了。</b>这有点类似投资房产。过去10多年，闭着眼睛随便买房子怎么都是赚。但当前，投资买房已经发生了明显的逻辑变化，再逆势而流，必将撞得头破血流。</p>\n<h3>3</h3>\n<h3><b>未来方向</b></h3>\n<p>未来，市场结构性分化将会是常态。因为我们的经济体，本身就有产业兴，有产业落，有公司兴，有公司落，有产业正处在顺周期，有产业处在逆周期。<b>普涨是奢望，分化才是常态。</b></p>\n<p>前文所提行业，不知不觉都进入了行业的成熟周期。但产业更替，一定还有不少行业正在孕育新的投资机会。当前，光伏、新能源汽车、医疗医美为什么反复被市场追捧，不断上涨？答案很简单，行业处在高速成长期（下图萌芽期），增量蛋糕很大，龙头们增速更快，自然会给到非常高的估值。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b80046927a879d08450c3a02bf5368\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"647\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>今年6月，新能源汽车销量为25.6万辆，整个汽车销量为201.5万辆，新能源车的渗透率已经达到12.7%，跨过10%的重要分水岭。新能源车未来几年的景气度会很高，成长性会很强。这是最近2年市场疯狂炒新能源车的重要逻辑。</p>\n<p>当然了，饭要一口一口吃，高估值还要等一等没有上来业绩灵魂。比如当前，宁德时代不足100亿的利润支撑起了1.2万的市值，怎么看都觉得疯狂了些。</p>\n<p><b>抓住那些未来高增长、且有持续性的行业，配置有潜力的公司，才是未来投资的大方向。</b>新能源、医疗医美、光伏等行业有长长的坡，厚厚的雪，机会众多，牛股会倍出。</p>\n<p>不光是投资者，本身处在传统行业的巨头们也在积极自救，通过资本的方式扩张新赛道，想要曲线实现业绩增长。2017年，美的斥资近300亿收购库卡公司，正式进入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>领域，但天有不测风云，最后结果不尽如意。</p>\n<p>但美的还在行动，今年2月斥资23亿入主<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600055\">万东医疗</a>，7月初全额认购不超过20.83亿定增份额，两次动作之后，持股比例已经超过40%，成为公司控股股东。万东医疗主营影像类医疗器械的研发、制造、生产，及影像诊断服务，是一个妥妥的好赛道啊。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6486ad33af5da7eee10120bcd9effb93\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"642\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>未来主流配置方向，市场已经较为有效地指明了方向。</b>但这并不意味着要马上就要去配置，还要考虑估值，否者短期可能面临巨大的回撤风险。</p>\n<p>未来，投资赚钱难度更大，因为多数行业陷入内卷，多数个股会走向香港化，持续阴跌会是常态，投资者要做好心理准备。</p>","source":"stock_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大白马们，终究还是一地鸡毛</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大白马们，终究还是一地鸡毛\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-20 09:05 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/476426><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>上周五，欧美股市集体大跌。今日，亚太股市跟随之，表现不佳。其中，港股恒指大跌近2%，互联网巨头们再度狂泻。A股沪指和深成指盘中跌近1%但给V回来了，但整体还是处于盘整弱势的状态。这让股友们想起前几天李大霄同志极度罕见的看空言论。他在微博发文说到，当前A股整体风险还不明显，但局部已经出现了一些明显的风险。他列了5条看空理由，其中一条直指创业板估值过高，已经渐渐接近2015年5178点的水平。\n是的，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/476426\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/476426","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2152955658","content_text":"上周五，欧美股市集体大跌。今日，亚太股市跟随之，表现不佳。其中，港股恒指大跌近2%，互联网巨头们再度狂泻。A股沪指和深成指盘中跌近1%但给V回来了，但整体还是处于盘整弱势的状态。这让股友们想起前几天李大霄同志极度罕见的看空言论。他在微博发文说到，当前A股整体风险还不明显，但局部已经出现了一些明显的风险。他列了5条看空理由，其中一条直指创业板估值过高，已经渐渐接近2015年5178点的水平。\n是的，创业板指风险很大，当前PE高达61.7倍，几乎位列全球主流股指估值的NO.1。权重占比15%的宁德时代持续大涨，带动创业板指持续飙升。但有没有想过一个问题，如果宁德开启回调，创业板指会不会崩得很难看？\n按照机构预测，宁德2021年大致有100亿利润，但现在却支撑了1.2万亿市值，多少有些头重脚轻。7月15日，是创业板公司发布业绩预告的截止时间。宁德没有发预告，最有可能的因素是中期利润同比幅度不超过50%，而一季度同比增长112%。大家怎么看？\n其实，包括宁德在内的少数白马暴走的同时，A股一大批白马早已经跌得溃不成军了。\n1\n白马神话破灭\n传统行业中，新希望自从高点下跌70%，永辉跌60%，三一、双汇、中炬高新跌逾50%，金龙鱼、顺丰、上机跌逾45%，牧原跌42%，平安、海螺跌逾35%，伊利、万科、美的跌逾30%。格力跌了26%，跌幅不算多，但股价4年没涨了。\n互联网行业中，快手跌65%，美团跌38%，京东跌30%，腾讯跌27%，阿里跌22%。大医药行业中，恒瑞暴跌38%，体检茅美年健康跌56%。\n这批大白马暴跌大多都是从今年2月18日开始的，短短5个月蒸发市值高达数万亿人民币。它们均是各大行业的龙头，也就是这几年被投资者挂在嘴边的核心资产。\n那么，问题来了，这批白马去年被极度看好，绝大多数公司股价还创下历史新高。短短几个月，风云突变，被市场大幅抛弃，究竟为何？\n市值大跌，无非两个层面的因素，一个是基本面，一个是估值，前者往往决定着后者的表现。\n传统行业中，美的集团是典型代表。在218年崩盘之前，估值倍数去到了30倍+，创下了美的2013年上市以来的最高记录。估值高，无非是市场预期业绩能够保持高速增长，且能够有持续性，但这样的逻辑并不可靠，今年被证伪了。\n2017-2020年，美的营收同比增速为51.35%、8.23%、6.71%、2.27%，归母净利润增速分别为17.7%、17%、19.7%、12.44%。今年一季度，归母净利润为64.7亿，同比增速34.5%，主要因素是去年一季度基数太低导致的，2019年Q1净利润就有61.3亿，相当于2年时间累增5.5%，平均增速仅为2.7%。\n\n业绩增速不断下台阶，正常情况下，估值应该持续往下走，但去年由于市场作妖，疯狂抱团，美的估值却逆向大涨。显然，疯狂的投机游戏结束了，一地鸡毛。\n大医药行业中，恒瑞医药去年累涨53%。到今年年初，估值倍数一度去到了103倍，同样是历史最高水平。\n一季度，恒瑞营收69.3亿，同比增速25%，归母净利润14.97亿，同比增长13.77%。这个成绩相对过往其实是不合格的，因为去年一季度受到疫情影响，营收和利润受到较大冲击，基数较低。要知道，在疫情之前的9年间（2011-2019年）的增速处在20%-43%之间，唯有2013年和2016年稍低于20%。\n恒瑞业绩表现不及预期，主要逻辑是研发费用大增。一季度研发费用达到13.16亿元，同比增长62.3%。一季度的研发费用比2017年以前每年的费用还要高得多。这从侧面也说明一个问题，当前的创新药的大背景竞争非常激烈，不得不投入高研发才能维持业绩的增长。\n很残酷的是，今年将会是PD-1最后的红利期。2022年的PD-1国家医保谈判将更加惨烈，不论是竞争的企业数量还是大适应症的数量均达到空前激烈的程度。恒瑞在接下来的这一轮又一轮的恶战中，并不占优，且面临大幅降价的困扰，后续恒瑞没有类似PD-1的大单品接龙，业绩增速将会下一个台阶。\n互联网行业，腾讯年初估值倍数去到了52倍，创下3年多新高。但股价持续下跌，也反应出市场对于业绩的增长预期发生了一些变化。\n\n去年，市场造就了一个又一个的白马神话，给投资者带来了足够惊人的回报率。但市场终究要回归理性，估值泡沫在今年被挤破了。并且伴随的是，大多白马业绩基本面出现了一些边际恶化的迹象，并不是去年预期那样所向披靡的业绩大增。\n2\n行业内卷化\n按照股票定价模型，现值是公司未来所有现金流总和进行折现的结果。很显然，要维持高估值，唯有未来利润高速增长，且具备持续性才可以。\n但中国宏观经济环境，已经不能支撑各大行业的龙头们持续高增长了。这是一个非常现实的问题。\n纵观过去数10年，中国经济增速最为辉煌的是2007年，那一年GDP同比高达14.23%，后基本保持一路下滑的态势——10%、9%、7%，到疫情之前的2019年仅有6.1%。\n\n2020年，中国GDP增速仅有2.3%，可见去年绝大多数行业受到疫情非常大的冲击。今年经济增长压力也很大，在去年低基数的情况下，目标只是维持6%以上的增长。如果把疫情特殊期间拉平看，2021年GDP目标相较于2019年仅增长8.6%，两年平均增速仅为4.3%。由此可见，中国宏观经济增速下台阶较为明显。\nGDP是所有行业平均增长的标尺，有的行业已经负增长，大多数行业则会维持不足5%的增长，而只有小部分行业才可以维持10%，乃至20%的高增长了。当然，传统行业增速大多只有个位数，甚至不增长，期望着行业龙头们动不动20%，乃至30%的高增长其实不太现实了。\n万科历史最高股价，定格在2018年1月，格力当前价格与2018年1月基本持平。这两家是房地产、家电行业最具代表性的超级龙头。为什么2018年之后股价就涨不动了呢？答案在行业上，自从2018年以后，宏观层面很显然是受到了房地产周期的影响和冲击。\n2016年，中国商品房销售面积同比增速高达22.5%，房地产景气度非常高。在此高基数的背景下，2017年仍然取得7.7%的同比增速。但2018年增速大幅下滑至1.3%，2019年则变为-0.1%。可见，2017年、2018年是这一轮房地产高景气度的高点，此后便走下坡路了。\n\n房地产、家电是传统行业最为典型的代表，当然银行、重工机械、水泥、传统商超、保险、食品饮料（部分）行业的周期早早迈过了成长性，进入成熟期，必然会跟着宏观经济增速继续下台阶。\n增长不动了（基本面边际恶化），估值就会下移，回报率就会大打折扣，自然而然会被主流市场抛弃。当然，即便是增速很慢的行业，却企业能够力挽狂澜，抢占对手市场份额实现高增长，但这样的企业实在太少太少，手指头都能数得过来。招行是其中一个典型代表。\n天下大势，浩浩汤汤，顺之者昌，逆之者亡。多数企业，包括龙头会随着行业增速见顶下移，陷入激烈的存量竞争，市场也会毫不犹豫给出难以置信的低估值倍数。\n那么，有人会问了，相别于传统行业，互联网行业前景非常好，为什么巨头们也会被市场狠狠踩在脚下呢？\n这些年，互联网行业早已把人口、流量红利给吃完了。互联网无疑也进入了存量竞争。在这一环境下，互联网巨头们想要维持高增长，唯有突破原有的边界，去蚕食更多传统行业的蛋糕，来满足自己的高速扩张。社区团购就是一个典型。\n但这不利于政府的目标函数，不利于大多数人的广泛利益。很快，监管层重拳出手了。 今年4月，阿里被罚181亿。这是一个标志性事件，代表着中国互联网最野蛮生长的时代结束了。从此往后，强监管将会是一个常态，也给互联网行业的发展带上了紧箍咒。从一度程度上讲，这也意味着互联网行业也越来越像“传统行业”靠齐。 \n监管频频出手背后，中国互联网的发展前景都不会再如去年之前那般光明。高速、持续增长的前景已经发生了较为深刻的变化。这波互联网巨头大跌也在预期这种宏观行业层面的变化。\n不管是传统行业，还是看起来前景不错的互联网行业，随着宏观经济的持续下台阶，几乎不可避免会进入内卷状态，未来这些行业的龙头们的业绩增速也不会有此前预期那么乐观，逐渐下台阶才是大势所趋。当然股价不可避免会很萎靡，投资者会很煎熬。\n一代新人换旧人，随便买入市场公认白马股而躺赚的时代过去了。这有点类似投资房产。过去10多年，闭着眼睛随便买房子怎么都是赚。但当前，投资买房已经发生了明显的逻辑变化，再逆势而流，必将撞得头破血流。\n3\n未来方向\n未来，市场结构性分化将会是常态。因为我们的经济体，本身就有产业兴，有产业落，有公司兴，有公司落，有产业正处在顺周期，有产业处在逆周期。普涨是奢望，分化才是常态。\n前文所提行业，不知不觉都进入了行业的成熟周期。但产业更替，一定还有不少行业正在孕育新的投资机会。当前，光伏、新能源汽车、医疗医美为什么反复被市场追捧，不断上涨？答案很简单，行业处在高速成长期（下图萌芽期），增量蛋糕很大，龙头们增速更快，自然会给到非常高的估值。\n\n今年6月，新能源汽车销量为25.6万辆，整个汽车销量为201.5万辆，新能源车的渗透率已经达到12.7%，跨过10%的重要分水岭。新能源车未来几年的景气度会很高，成长性会很强。这是最近2年市场疯狂炒新能源车的重要逻辑。\n当然了，饭要一口一口吃，高估值还要等一等没有上来业绩灵魂。比如当前，宁德时代不足100亿的利润支撑起了1.2万的市值，怎么看都觉得疯狂了些。\n抓住那些未来高增长、且有持续性的行业，配置有潜力的公司，才是未来投资的大方向。新能源、医疗医美、光伏等行业有长长的坡，厚厚的雪，机会众多，牛股会倍出。\n不光是投资者，本身处在传统行业的巨头们也在积极自救，通过资本的方式扩张新赛道，想要曲线实现业绩增长。2017年，美的斥资近300亿收购库卡公司，正式进入机器人领域，但天有不测风云，最后结果不尽如意。\n但美的还在行动，今年2月斥资23亿入主万东医疗，7月初全额认购不超过20.83亿定增份额，两次动作之后，持股比例已经超过40%，成为公司控股股东。万东医疗主营影像类医疗器械的研发、制造、生产，及影像诊断服务，是一个妥妥的好赛道啊。\n\n未来主流配置方向，市场已经较为有效地指明了方向。但这并不意味着要马上就要去配置，还要考虑估值，否者短期可能面临巨大的回撤风险。\n未来，投资赚钱难度更大，因为多数行业陷入内卷，多数个股会走向香港化，持续阴跌会是常态，投资者要做好心理准备。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142818216,"gmtCreate":1626140518635,"gmtModify":1633929737412,"author":{"id":"3586549737202999","authorId":"3586549737202999","name":"Jasonteo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c65e51a6c7aa32f9d87734f24dea5af2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586549737202999","idStr":"3586549737202999"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142818216","repostId":"1199045893","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199045893","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626139221,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199045893?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-13 09:20","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"开盘：恒指开涨0.65%，两新股首挂双双破发","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199045893","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月13日，恒生指数开盘上涨178.79点，涨幅0.65%，报27694.03点；国企指数开盘上涨49.98点，涨幅0.5%，报9995.71点；红筹指数开盘上涨18.1点，涨幅0.47%，报3867","content":"<p>7月13日，恒生指数开盘上涨178.79点，涨幅0.65%，报27694.03点；国企指数开盘上涨49.98点，涨幅0.5%，报9995.71点；红筹指数开盘上涨18.1点，涨幅0.47%，报3867.61点。</p>\n<p>恒生科技指数涨0.54%，大型科技股反弹，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">京东集团-SW</a>均涨逾1%；</p>\n<p>港股手游股涨幅居前，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02660\">禅游科技</a>涨3.36%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">网易-S</a>涨2.13%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00302\">中手游</a>涨0.52%；</p>\n<p>新股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06913\">华南职业教育</a>上市首日破发，开跌8.8%，发行价为1.59港元/股；</p>\n<p>新股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02137\">腾盛博药-B</a>上市首日破发，开跌近4%，发行价22.25港元/股；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01799\">新特能源</a>高开5.75% 预期上半年拥有人应占利润不少于11.5亿元；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09969\">诺诚健华-B</a>高开超4%创新高 与渤健就奥布替尼达成许可及合作协议。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>开盘：恒指开涨0.65%，两新股首挂双双破发</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n开盘：恒指开涨0.65%，两新股首挂双双破发\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-13 09:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>7月13日，恒生指数开盘上涨178.79点，涨幅0.65%，报27694.03点；国企指数开盘上涨49.98点，涨幅0.5%，报9995.71点；红筹指数开盘上涨18.1点，涨幅0.47%，报3867.61点。</p>\n<p>恒生科技指数涨0.54%，大型科技股反弹，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">京东集团-SW</a>均涨逾1%；</p>\n<p>港股手游股涨幅居前，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02660\">禅游科技</a>涨3.36%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">网易-S</a>涨2.13%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00302\">中手游</a>涨0.52%；</p>\n<p>新股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06913\">华南职业教育</a>上市首日破发，开跌8.8%，发行价为1.59港元/股；</p>\n<p>新股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02137\">腾盛博药-B</a>上市首日破发，开跌近4%，发行价22.25港元/股；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01799\">新特能源</a>高开5.75% 预期上半年拥有人应占利润不少于11.5亿元；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09969\">诺诚健华-B</a>高开超4%创新高 与渤健就奥布替尼达成许可及合作协议。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"513600":"恒生指数ETF","HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSI":"恒生指数","HSCEI":"国企指数","02833":"恒指ETF","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199045893","content_text":"7月13日，恒生指数开盘上涨178.79点，涨幅0.65%，报27694.03点；国企指数开盘上涨49.98点，涨幅0.5%，报9995.71点；红筹指数开盘上涨18.1点，涨幅0.47%，报3867.61点。\n恒生科技指数涨0.54%，大型科技股反弹，腾讯控股、阿里巴巴、百度集团-SW、京东集团-SW均涨逾1%；\n港股手游股涨幅居前，禅游科技涨3.36%，网易-S涨2.13%，中手游涨0.52%；\n新股华南职业教育上市首日破发，开跌8.8%，发行价为1.59港元/股；\n新股腾盛博药-B上市首日破发，开跌近4%，发行价22.25港元/股；\n新特能源高开5.75% 预期上半年拥有人应占利润不少于11.5亿元；\n诺诚健华-B高开超4%创新高 与渤健就奥布替尼达成许可及合作协议。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146119600,"gmtCreate":1626058265900,"gmtModify":1633930548201,"author":{"id":"3586549737202999","authorId":"3586549737202999","name":"Jasonteo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c65e51a6c7aa32f9d87734f24dea5af2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586549737202999","idStr":"3586549737202999"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146119600","repostId":"2150309877","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146196580,"gmtCreate":1626057341740,"gmtModify":1633930560498,"author":{"id":"3586549737202999","authorId":"3586549737202999","name":"Jasonteo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c65e51a6c7aa32f9d87734f24dea5af2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586549737202999","idStr":"3586549737202999"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Excited ","listText":"Excited ","text":"Excited","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146196580","repostId":"2150583935","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127853167,"gmtCreate":1624843997359,"gmtModify":1633948110706,"author":{"id":"3586549737202999","authorId":"3586549737202999","name":"Jasonteo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c65e51a6c7aa32f9d87734f24dea5af2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586549737202999","idStr":"3586549737202999"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good ","listText":"Good ","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127853167","repostId":"2146007781","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":435,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
