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2021-12-18

Agree

Wedbush's Dan Ives: Don't throw in the towel on tech

2021-11-12

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$Bull

2021-11-11

$Alibaba(09988)$Bull

2021-11-10

$SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LIMITED(S68.SI)$Patience

2021-11-09

$Alibaba(09988)$Bullish

2021-11-09

$SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LIMITED(S68.SI)$Watching

2021-11-08

$SINGTEL(Z74.SI)$Good momentum!

2021-11-07

$SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LIMITED(S68.SI)$Patience

2021-11-06

$SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LIMITED(S68.SI)$Optimistic!

2021-11-06

$SINGTEL(Z74.SI)$Up trend

2021-11-05

$SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LIMITED(S68.SI)$Should I enter?

2021-11-02

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$Up and up

2021-11-01

$CHINA OVERSEAS(00688)$Loading

2021-10-30

$Alibaba(BABA)$Turning around and up next

2021-10-29

$PING AN(02318)$Time to load up

2021-10-28

$Alibaba(09988)$Loading up

2021-10-24

$Alibaba(BABA)$Up and up

2021-10-23

$British American Tobacco PLC(BTI)$loading

2021-10-23

$Alibaba(BABA)$Nice

2021-10-21

$SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LIMITED(S68.SI)$Time to load up!

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told CNBC on Friday.</p>\n<p>Calling the current era \"a fourth industrial revolution,\" Ives backed such stocks as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CYBR\">CyberArk Software </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">Palo Alto Networks </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZS\">Zscaler </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA </a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple </a>.</p>\n<p>\"This is an opportunity, not the start of a downtrend for tech,\" he said.</p>\n<p>Ives argued that a large number of tech names will see significant growth in coming years thanks to heavy spending on technologies like cybersecurity, 5G and further moves into the cloud.</p>\n<p>He estimated that this \"digital transformation\" would fuel another $2T in spending over the next six to seven years.</p>\n<p>That said, Ives warned investors that they had to be selective with their portfolios, as some stocks will lose momentum once the massive pandemic-related stimulus comes to an end.</p>\n<p>\"You have to separate the winners from the losers and the long-term winners versus the ones that benefited from the pandemic,\" he said.</p>\n<p>Rather, Ives suggested investors \"double down on their winners.\"</p>\n<p>Looking at some of the stocks mentioned by Ives, NVDA has done by far the best in 2021, more than doubling over the course of the year. ZS and PANW have both risen nearly 50%. 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWedbush's Dan Ives: Don't throw in the towel on tech\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-18 13:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3781354-dont-throw-in-the-towel-on-tech-wedbushs-dan-ives><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Wedbush Securities managing director Dan Ives advised investors to stick with technology stocks despite the potential valuation crunch that could happen as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates.\n\"...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3781354-dont-throw-in-the-towel-on-tech-wedbushs-dan-ives\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZS":"Zscaler Inc.","CYBR":"Cyber-Ark Software","NVDA":"英伟达","PANW":"Palo Alto Networks"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3781354-dont-throw-in-the-towel-on-tech-wedbushs-dan-ives","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161245886","content_text":"Wedbush Securities managing director Dan Ives advised investors to stick with technology stocks despite the potential valuation crunch that could happen as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates.\n\"This is not the time to throw in the white towel on tech,\" he told CNBC on Friday.\nCalling the current era \"a fourth industrial revolution,\" Ives backed such stocks as CyberArk Software , Palo Alto Networks , Zscaler , NVIDIA  and Apple .\n\"This is an opportunity, not the start of a downtrend for tech,\" he said.\nIves argued that a large number of tech names will see significant growth in coming years thanks to heavy spending on technologies like cybersecurity, 5G and further moves into the cloud.\nHe estimated that this \"digital transformation\" would fuel another $2T in spending over the next six to seven years.\nThat said, Ives warned investors that they had to be selective with their portfolios, as some stocks will lose momentum once the massive pandemic-related stimulus comes to an end.\n\"You have to separate the winners from the losers and the long-term winners versus the ones that benefited from the pandemic,\" he said.\nRather, Ives suggested investors \"double down on their winners.\"\nLooking at some of the stocks mentioned by Ives, NVDA has done by far the best in 2021, more than doubling over the course of the year. ZS and PANW have both risen nearly 50%. AAPL lags behind its smaller rivals, although it has rallied about 30% for 2021.\nThe main laggard in the group is CYBR, which is basically flat on the year:","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":240,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879368813,"gmtCreate":1636682862430,"gmtModify":1636683294095,"author":{"id":"3586055114434039","authorId":"3586055114434039","name":"loychng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb649759892edacaa4759c163304f09d","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Bull","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Bull","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$Bull","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/870189635caa346494a27103fedbd232","width":"1125","height":"3680"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879368813","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":437,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":870191078,"gmtCreate":1636591712949,"gmtModify":1636591712949,"author":{"id":"3586055114434039","authorId":"3586055114434039","name":"loychng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb649759892edacaa4759c163304f09d","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a>Bull&nbsp;","listText":"<a 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now","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/084e2fb9b081c9a084ffb341429f6796","width":"1125","height":"3221"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826641882","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":804558025,"gmtCreate":1627966854267,"gmtModify":1631889529976,"author":{"id":"3586055114434039","authorId":"3586055114434039","name":"loychng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb649759892edacaa4759c163304f09d","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]","listText":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804558025","repostId":"1164932897","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1164932897","pubTimestamp":1627966563,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1164932897?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-03 12:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"电商巨头的好日子到头了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164932897","media":"豹变","summary":"本轮中概股暴跌，大概会让很多人意识到，高波动才是金融市场永恒的特征，没有只涨不跌的股票。\n教育板块不必多说，原来牛股遍地，今年在多重因素共振下暴跌。然而很多人可能没注意，浓眉大眼的电商巨头们股价跌幅也","content":"<p>本轮中概股暴跌，大概会让很多人意识到，高波动才是金融市场永恒的特征，没有只涨不跌的股票。</p>\n<p>教育板块不必多说，原来牛股遍地，今年在多重因素共振下暴跌。然而很多人可能没注意，浓眉大眼的电商巨头们股价跌幅也不小，平均跌幅接近腰斩。有网友调侃，今年618，打折最狠的可能不是你网购的商品，而是电商巨头们的股价。</p>\n<p>如果只是反垄断，电商板块里应该阿里一家公司跌，但从各公司见顶时间点计算，阿里、京东均跌超40%，曾经股价无比坚挺的拼多多，更是跌了近60%，市值跌到了1000亿美元附近。</p>\n<p>过去几年，电商股一直是全球投资机构扎堆配置的重要标的，如今却被不少机构减持。</p>\n<p>电商平台都怎么了？到底是行业出问题了真跌，还是市场的非理性波动？</p>\n<p><b>增速放缓成了“新常态”</b></p>\n<p>“增长是解决一切问题的办法”，这是很多经济学家口中常念叨的。因为只有实现增长，才能够为今后的很多问题提供解决的时间以及思路。</p>\n<p>强生公司前执行总裁拉尔夫·拉森也说过：“增长就像纯净的氧气，是解决一切企业问题的入口。”</p>\n<p>不过从经营数据来看，虽然三大电商平台商品交易总额（GMV）仍在增长，但增速已经放缓。</p>\n<p>最典型的是拼多多，GMV增速已经从过去的200%+以上跌到66%。阿里2020年GMV增速约为15%，刚刚跑赢大盘。根据国家统计局数据，2020年全年实物商品网上零售额9.76万亿元，增长14.8%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70b504e48293a2f51b3fb02fc14ac3ba\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"167\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>为什么GMV增速会下滑？核心来自驱动GMV变化的两个核心变量：年活跃买家数（AAC）、年人均消费金额（ARPU）。</p>\n<p>2018年以来，阿里和拼多多年活跃买家增速总体放缓，阿里由于基数庞大，2020年AAC增速（%）曾跌入个位数，拼多多AAC增速则从70%多跌入31%。京东2018年以来总体增速呈现提升，今年一季度增速略有放缓。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9e34e202b505b124f9bc164ee3b0a7f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"159\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>从年人均消费金额来看，近三年，三家平台几乎无明显增长。京东2020年ARPU值还略有下滑。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3c46aad2dd244b53ffaf78138cba89d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>以上现象显现的背后，是网购用户增长接近饱和。</p>\n<p>根据 QuestMobile数据，中国手机上网用户规模，已经从直线增长进入阶段性波动增长阶段，增长几乎见顶。</p>\n<p>此外，截至2020年年底，国内网购用户规模已经达到7.82亿，这一数据已经占全国总人口的六成、网民总数的八成，增速同样面临放缓。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67caf951c840ef90305722f8ae7f745a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"191\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>不过，GMV增速放缓不是世界末日，如果行业整体还有增长空间，中低速增长也并非不能接受。</p>\n<p>电商行业正是面临这种情况。</p>\n<p>根据国家统计局数据，截至今年5月，中国实物商品线上渗透率只有23.9%，如果排除石油汽车香烟等品类，2020年中国实际线上渗透率也不过30.7%。</p>\n<p>渗透率是个关键指标，它指的是商品现有需求量和商品潜在需求量的比值，而20%出头的渗透率往往表明行业仍有发展机会。</p>\n<p>传播学有一个著名的创新扩散理论：任何新事物，从不为人知到广为人知，它的扩散的速度并不均匀。</p>\n<p>一开始，新事物的传播速度会比较慢，但当接受它的人群规模（也就是渗透率）到了某个临界点（一般为10%-25%），扩散的速度会突然加快。背后的原理来自羊群效应，第一批吃螃蟹的都是少数，但当吃螃蟹的人越来越多达到一定规模时，会出现明显的跟风。</p>\n<p>所以从行业整体来看，电商依然是个有潜力的赛道。</p>\n<p>不过，以上只是一个总体结论，从具体的行业来看，爆发需要依然时间。</p>\n<p>之所以这么说，是因为家电、电子产品和服装鞋包等容易“上网”的品类线上渗透率已经较高，部分渗透率已经接近40%，这是短期GMV增速下滑的关键原因。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36f3339a93fc064aa7ac3b2aacf1415\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"181\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>未来行业的增长，需要美妆、医药保健、生鲜、食品饮料、日用品等新品类渗透率的抬升。</p>\n<p>这也解释了为什么巨头们纷纷押注生鲜电商、社区团购。本质原因是，这一商业模式的出现，让生鲜等高频低单价、容易库存损耗的商品“上网”变为可能。</p>\n<p>以社区团购为例，这一模式的核心逻辑在于“线上预售、以销定采、落地集配、到店自提”。“线上预售、以销定采”能够减低生鲜储存过程中的损耗成本；“落地集配、到店自提”是指总仓收到货之后，就会发往各个自提点，由消费者上门自提，或团长负责 “最后一公里”配送，从而显著降低物流成本和履约成本。</p>\n<p>实际上，对于各电商巨头来讲，当下真正的问题，是来自行业内部和外部的激烈竞争。</p>\n<p><b>内部竞争：下沉与上浮</b></p>\n<p>如今的电商格局，暂时呈现“非对称”的三分天下局面。</p>\n<p>国家统计局数据显示，2020年全国网上零售总额11.76万亿元，而阿里巴巴、京东、拼多多三家的交易额就达到11.3816亿元，占比高达97%。不过份额分布并不均匀，阿里61%、京东22%、拼多多14%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67b1c9c107b756bc951b84fd77ad8d97\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"164\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>三分天下的结构并非天然如此，它是逐渐演化出来的。要知道，2015年时还是阿里一家独大，份额接近8成。</p>\n<p>京东和拼多多之所以能在竞争中撕开电商的两道口子，来自其独特的经营主张。</p>\n<p>京东2007年以来持续自建物流，优化用户体验，在用户心智中植入了“正品、快捷”两个关键词。</p>\n<p>拼多多则通过整合原淘宝低端商家完成上下游的价值网重构，叠加三到六线用户上网的人口红利、微信社交裂变的加持，完成突围。</p>\n<p>从京东、拼多多的突围，我们会发现，如果行业蛋糕仍在做大期，即使领先者市占率领先，但依然留有机会。因为每年释放出的新蛋糕空间大，领先者依然有被同行抢占份额甚至赶超的可能。</p>\n<p>目前来看，三大电商平台的竞争主要围绕阿里、京东的“下沉”，和拼多多的“上浮”展开。</p>\n<p>下沉市场是一块待开垦的土壤，今年一季度，全国网上零售总额达2.81万亿元，同比增长29.9%，然而，农村网络零售额达4397.9亿元，同比增长35.3%，远高于全国总规模。</p>\n<p>对于下沉，阿里的策略是发力社区团购和淘特（原淘宝特价版）。</p>\n<p>据《晚点LatePost》报道，今年3月，阿里成立MMC事业群，聚焦社区团购。事业群将零售通的社区团购业务、盒马集市整合，由阿里合伙人、B2B事业群总裁戴珊负责。7月，盒马事业群还新立成了NB（Neighbor Business）事业部，提供的也是“当日下单、次日自提”服务。阿里的另一动作则是投资了十荟团。</p>\n<p>以阿里的重要棋子盒马集市为例，它是直接下沉到社区的生活服务平台。盒马集市的打法是试图整合国内600万小店和阿里的供应链能力，为小店提供数字化服务，同时根据社区需求，提前对菜品和日用百货提前备货，降低消费者购买成本，提升产品质量。</p>\n<p>淘特则在外界看来是阿里对标拼多多的业务。在2021财年报告中，阿里提到，淘特的年度活跃用户超过1.5亿，贡献了阿里约70%的新增年活跃买家数（AAC）。</p>\n<p>阿里集团副总裁、C2M事业部的总经理汪海曾表示，未来淘特将打造全品类源头直供体系，同时主攻工业消费品和农产品。</p>\n<p>值得注意的是，阿里介入的农产品，一直是拼多多的竞争优势所在。平安证券在报告中提到，农产品在拼多多总GMV的占比大约优于同业5倍，2021年第一季度，涉农订单同比增幅超过300%。</p>\n<p>京东则在去年重组了针对下沉市场的京喜事业群，包括特价购物平台京喜、社区购物平台京喜拼拼、服务中小便利店的京喜通等业务。此外，刘强东还亲自下场督战社区团购业务。据京东财报，截至今年一季度，京喜事业群为京东贡献了约80%的新增年活跃买家数（AAC）。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13a262c0e3557afc3040fcbb2633c29f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"88\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>面对两大巨头的夹击，拼多多一方面发力“多多买菜”巩固下沉市场， 另一方面则在不断提高客单价和营销收入，比如吸引更多的品牌商户入驻。</p>\n<p>此前拼多多管理层曾表示，年初至今，强生、联合利华、美的等品牌已经和拼多多达成深度战略合作。此外，一季度拼多多财报还指出，从3月起，拼多多已经正式对百亿补贴产品抽佣1-3%，同时扩大百亿补贴商品品类，纳入农产品、快销品，以此进一步提升佣金率。</p>\n<p>虽然各家动静都不小，但从财报数据来看，竞争之下，三大平台毛利率集体下滑。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5534ea7a06f68e913300b1208e721eb\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"199\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>毛利率是反应企业盈利能力的关键指标，表示每产生1元收入扣除销售成本后，有多少钱可以用于各项支付经营期各项费用形成盈利。</p>\n<p>毛利率下滑有两种可能：要么意味着企业为了抢份额主动牺牲利润，要么缺乏竞争力而不得不牺牲利润。但不管怎么说，这项数据的变化都是企业在激烈竞争中留下的痕迹。</p>\n<p><b>外部竞争：对手，永远不止同行</b></p>\n<p>三巨头鏖战正酣，或许谁都没想到，更凶悍的对手可能来自隔壁的短视频平台。</p>\n<p>近两年，抖音、快手等短视频平台的兴起，不仅改变了用户流量时长分配，也演化出了自己的直播电商业务。</p>\n<p>根据快手财报，一季度快手直播电商交易总额（GMV）1185.59亿元，是2020年同期的近300%，是快手增速最猛的业务板块。而据抖音电商此前则披露，2020年1-12月，其总体GMV增长11.3倍。</p>\n<p>不过在2019年和2020年，两家平台倒是非常低调。比如，2020年618期间，年GMV已经达到3500亿的快手选择与京东合作，抖音则本着“广结善缘”的思路，利用小程序接入京东、苏宁易购等第三方平台参与618。</p>\n<p>然而，随着反垄断大幕拉开，“二选一”成为历史，2021年的抖音、快手等新晋“电商后浪”格外积极。</p>\n<p>快手一改过去配角姿态，亲自下场联合江苏卫视、浙江卫视举办首届直播电商晚会——“快手616真心夜”。抖音则早在4月22日便在线上举办抖音618招商大会，提前为618招兵买马，还提出了“兴趣电商”的概念。</p>\n<p>事实上，直播电商是个极具空间的电商子赛道。据艾瑞咨询预测，2025年直播电商规模有望达到6.4万亿，渗透率达到23.9%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99955e6aaaa3e4cf903172b950f60bcc\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>为什么直播电商能火？总的来看，除了此前疫情下人们宅家时间变长、以及平台的流量配给红利，更重要的是，直播电商调动了用户更多感官，信息量与冲击力远超图文。</p>\n<p>具体来看，淘宝、抖音、快手三大核心平台的直播电商逻辑各不相同。</p>\n<p>淘宝直播是以“搜索”作为主要的消费路径，即“人找货”模式。</p>\n<p>抖音直播走的是“内容路径”的兴趣电商。通过算法筛选出优质内容，将商品精准推荐、分发给用户，这种以“兴趣标签”为媒介将商品内容精确匹配潜在用户的模式，形成了“边逛边买”的发现式消费，本质是“货找人”。</p>\n<p>快手直播则又走了另一条路，强调主播和粉丝的深度信任。根据快手财报，其电商用户平均复购率由2019年的45%提升至2020年的65%。</p>\n<p>对比下来我们会发现，直播电商虽然呈现出三足鼎立的态势，但各家用的是“错位竞争”的打法。</p>\n<p>错位竞争是个不错的进攻思路，尤其对初创企业。</p>\n<p>混沌大学创始人李善友曾讲过一条创业准则：与其更好，不如不同。这句话说的是，企业要想在残酷的竞争中生存，尽量不要和实力强大的巨头正面竞争，要利用差异化夺取胜利。</p>\n<p>克里斯坦森曾在那本著名的《创新者的窘境》中给出一组数字：初创企业如果和现有巨头正面直接竞争，成功率只有6%，而如果和巨头错开，跳到新的价值网，创业成功率则将提升至37%。</p>\n<p>对应到近几年国内崛起的巨头案例：拼多多早期聚焦五环外下沉市场，和天猫、京东形成错位，随后快速崛起；美团崛起，有很大一部分原因是聚焦外卖等生活服务电商，与阿里的实物电商形成错位。</p>\n<p>可以看出，由于各家打法不同，未来的市场争夺将异常激烈。</p>\n<p>如果我们把视角扩大，直播电商这种新商业形态本身，在某种意义上也和传统的图文、线下超市形成了错位竞争。而凭借着较低的渗透率，直播电商自身未来也必将对其他电商模式形成冲击。</p>\n<p>在这个层面上，现有电商巨头和潜在电商巨头未来必有一战。</p>\n<p>总的来看，由于新品类的渗透率快速提升，电商业未来几年依然能保持一定的增速。但正如刘慈欣在《三体》中写到的“消灭你，与你无关”，新模式的出现，可能使得未来整个行业的竞争格局发生重构，这令当下在场的玩家基本面具有一定不确定性。</p>\n<p>从股价的角度来看，金融市场对股票的定价基于预期，不断超预期的基本面表现，是股价上涨的根本动力。所以对企业而言，如何保持竞争优势？如何稳定并扭转市场预期？是当下需要思考的关键问题。</p>","source":"lsy1596797737369","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>电商巨头的好日子到头了？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n电商巨头的好日子到头了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-03 12:56 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/7bz_d4h5-eVrlbbxwmHbiQ><strong>豹变</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本轮中概股暴跌，大概会让很多人意识到，高波动才是金融市场永恒的特征，没有只涨不跌的股票。\n教育板块不必多说，原来牛股遍地，今年在多重因素共振下暴跌。然而很多人可能没注意，浓眉大眼的电商巨头们股价跌幅也不小，平均跌幅接近腰斩。有网友调侃，今年618，打折最狠的可能不是你网购的商品，而是电商巨头们的股价。\n如果只是反垄断，电商板块里应该阿里一家公司跌，但从各公司见顶时间点计算，阿里、京东均跌超40%，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/7bz_d4h5-eVrlbbxwmHbiQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81fd5f18baea084b0bb1364bbfcefea9","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-SW","PDD":"拼多多"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/7bz_d4h5-eVrlbbxwmHbiQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164932897","content_text":"本轮中概股暴跌，大概会让很多人意识到，高波动才是金融市场永恒的特征，没有只涨不跌的股票。\n教育板块不必多说，原来牛股遍地，今年在多重因素共振下暴跌。然而很多人可能没注意，浓眉大眼的电商巨头们股价跌幅也不小，平均跌幅接近腰斩。有网友调侃，今年618，打折最狠的可能不是你网购的商品，而是电商巨头们的股价。\n如果只是反垄断，电商板块里应该阿里一家公司跌，但从各公司见顶时间点计算，阿里、京东均跌超40%，曾经股价无比坚挺的拼多多，更是跌了近60%，市值跌到了1000亿美元附近。\n过去几年，电商股一直是全球投资机构扎堆配置的重要标的，如今却被不少机构减持。\n电商平台都怎么了？到底是行业出问题了真跌，还是市场的非理性波动？\n增速放缓成了“新常态”\n“增长是解决一切问题的办法”，这是很多经济学家口中常念叨的。因为只有实现增长，才能够为今后的很多问题提供解决的时间以及思路。\n强生公司前执行总裁拉尔夫·拉森也说过：“增长就像纯净的氧气，是解决一切企业问题的入口。”\n不过从经营数据来看，虽然三大电商平台商品交易总额（GMV）仍在增长，但增速已经放缓。\n最典型的是拼多多，GMV增速已经从过去的200%+以上跌到66%。阿里2020年GMV增速约为15%，刚刚跑赢大盘。根据国家统计局数据，2020年全年实物商品网上零售额9.76万亿元，增长14.8%。\n\n为什么GMV增速会下滑？核心来自驱动GMV变化的两个核心变量：年活跃买家数（AAC）、年人均消费金额（ARPU）。\n2018年以来，阿里和拼多多年活跃买家增速总体放缓，阿里由于基数庞大，2020年AAC增速（%）曾跌入个位数，拼多多AAC增速则从70%多跌入31%。京东2018年以来总体增速呈现提升，今年一季度增速略有放缓。\n\n从年人均消费金额来看，近三年，三家平台几乎无明显增长。京东2020年ARPU值还略有下滑。\n\n以上现象显现的背后，是网购用户增长接近饱和。\n根据 QuestMobile数据，中国手机上网用户规模，已经从直线增长进入阶段性波动增长阶段，增长几乎见顶。\n此外，截至2020年年底，国内网购用户规模已经达到7.82亿，这一数据已经占全国总人口的六成、网民总数的八成，增速同样面临放缓。\n\n不过，GMV增速放缓不是世界末日，如果行业整体还有增长空间，中低速增长也并非不能接受。\n电商行业正是面临这种情况。\n根据国家统计局数据，截至今年5月，中国实物商品线上渗透率只有23.9%，如果排除石油汽车香烟等品类，2020年中国实际线上渗透率也不过30.7%。\n渗透率是个关键指标，它指的是商品现有需求量和商品潜在需求量的比值，而20%出头的渗透率往往表明行业仍有发展机会。\n传播学有一个著名的创新扩散理论：任何新事物，从不为人知到广为人知，它的扩散的速度并不均匀。\n一开始，新事物的传播速度会比较慢，但当接受它的人群规模（也就是渗透率）到了某个临界点（一般为10%-25%），扩散的速度会突然加快。背后的原理来自羊群效应，第一批吃螃蟹的都是少数，但当吃螃蟹的人越来越多达到一定规模时，会出现明显的跟风。\n所以从行业整体来看，电商依然是个有潜力的赛道。\n不过，以上只是一个总体结论，从具体的行业来看，爆发需要依然时间。\n之所以这么说，是因为家电、电子产品和服装鞋包等容易“上网”的品类线上渗透率已经较高，部分渗透率已经接近40%，这是短期GMV增速下滑的关键原因。\n\n未来行业的增长，需要美妆、医药保健、生鲜、食品饮料、日用品等新品类渗透率的抬升。\n这也解释了为什么巨头们纷纷押注生鲜电商、社区团购。本质原因是，这一商业模式的出现，让生鲜等高频低单价、容易库存损耗的商品“上网”变为可能。\n以社区团购为例，这一模式的核心逻辑在于“线上预售、以销定采、落地集配、到店自提”。“线上预售、以销定采”能够减低生鲜储存过程中的损耗成本；“落地集配、到店自提”是指总仓收到货之后，就会发往各个自提点，由消费者上门自提，或团长负责 “最后一公里”配送，从而显著降低物流成本和履约成本。\n实际上，对于各电商巨头来讲，当下真正的问题，是来自行业内部和外部的激烈竞争。\n内部竞争：下沉与上浮\n如今的电商格局，暂时呈现“非对称”的三分天下局面。\n国家统计局数据显示，2020年全国网上零售总额11.76万亿元，而阿里巴巴、京东、拼多多三家的交易额就达到11.3816亿元，占比高达97%。不过份额分布并不均匀，阿里61%、京东22%、拼多多14%。\n\n三分天下的结构并非天然如此，它是逐渐演化出来的。要知道，2015年时还是阿里一家独大，份额接近8成。\n京东和拼多多之所以能在竞争中撕开电商的两道口子，来自其独特的经营主张。\n京东2007年以来持续自建物流，优化用户体验，在用户心智中植入了“正品、快捷”两个关键词。\n拼多多则通过整合原淘宝低端商家完成上下游的价值网重构，叠加三到六线用户上网的人口红利、微信社交裂变的加持，完成突围。\n从京东、拼多多的突围，我们会发现，如果行业蛋糕仍在做大期，即使领先者市占率领先，但依然留有机会。因为每年释放出的新蛋糕空间大，领先者依然有被同行抢占份额甚至赶超的可能。\n目前来看，三大电商平台的竞争主要围绕阿里、京东的“下沉”，和拼多多的“上浮”展开。\n下沉市场是一块待开垦的土壤，今年一季度，全国网上零售总额达2.81万亿元，同比增长29.9%，然而，农村网络零售额达4397.9亿元，同比增长35.3%，远高于全国总规模。\n对于下沉，阿里的策略是发力社区团购和淘特（原淘宝特价版）。\n据《晚点LatePost》报道，今年3月，阿里成立MMC事业群，聚焦社区团购。事业群将零售通的社区团购业务、盒马集市整合，由阿里合伙人、B2B事业群总裁戴珊负责。7月，盒马事业群还新立成了NB（Neighbor Business）事业部，提供的也是“当日下单、次日自提”服务。阿里的另一动作则是投资了十荟团。\n以阿里的重要棋子盒马集市为例，它是直接下沉到社区的生活服务平台。盒马集市的打法是试图整合国内600万小店和阿里的供应链能力，为小店提供数字化服务，同时根据社区需求，提前对菜品和日用百货提前备货，降低消费者购买成本，提升产品质量。\n淘特则在外界看来是阿里对标拼多多的业务。在2021财年报告中，阿里提到，淘特的年度活跃用户超过1.5亿，贡献了阿里约70%的新增年活跃买家数（AAC）。\n阿里集团副总裁、C2M事业部的总经理汪海曾表示，未来淘特将打造全品类源头直供体系，同时主攻工业消费品和农产品。\n值得注意的是，阿里介入的农产品，一直是拼多多的竞争优势所在。平安证券在报告中提到，农产品在拼多多总GMV的占比大约优于同业5倍，2021年第一季度，涉农订单同比增幅超过300%。\n京东则在去年重组了针对下沉市场的京喜事业群，包括特价购物平台京喜、社区购物平台京喜拼拼、服务中小便利店的京喜通等业务。此外，刘强东还亲自下场督战社区团购业务。据京东财报，截至今年一季度，京喜事业群为京东贡献了约80%的新增年活跃买家数（AAC）。\n\n面对两大巨头的夹击，拼多多一方面发力“多多买菜”巩固下沉市场， 另一方面则在不断提高客单价和营销收入，比如吸引更多的品牌商户入驻。\n此前拼多多管理层曾表示，年初至今，强生、联合利华、美的等品牌已经和拼多多达成深度战略合作。此外，一季度拼多多财报还指出，从3月起，拼多多已经正式对百亿补贴产品抽佣1-3%，同时扩大百亿补贴商品品类，纳入农产品、快销品，以此进一步提升佣金率。\n虽然各家动静都不小，但从财报数据来看，竞争之下，三大平台毛利率集体下滑。\n\n毛利率是反应企业盈利能力的关键指标，表示每产生1元收入扣除销售成本后，有多少钱可以用于各项支付经营期各项费用形成盈利。\n毛利率下滑有两种可能：要么意味着企业为了抢份额主动牺牲利润，要么缺乏竞争力而不得不牺牲利润。但不管怎么说，这项数据的变化都是企业在激烈竞争中留下的痕迹。\n外部竞争：对手，永远不止同行\n三巨头鏖战正酣，或许谁都没想到，更凶悍的对手可能来自隔壁的短视频平台。\n近两年，抖音、快手等短视频平台的兴起，不仅改变了用户流量时长分配，也演化出了自己的直播电商业务。\n根据快手财报，一季度快手直播电商交易总额（GMV）1185.59亿元，是2020年同期的近300%，是快手增速最猛的业务板块。而据抖音电商此前则披露，2020年1-12月，其总体GMV增长11.3倍。\n不过在2019年和2020年，两家平台倒是非常低调。比如，2020年618期间，年GMV已经达到3500亿的快手选择与京东合作，抖音则本着“广结善缘”的思路，利用小程序接入京东、苏宁易购等第三方平台参与618。\n然而，随着反垄断大幕拉开，“二选一”成为历史，2021年的抖音、快手等新晋“电商后浪”格外积极。\n快手一改过去配角姿态，亲自下场联合江苏卫视、浙江卫视举办首届直播电商晚会——“快手616真心夜”。抖音则早在4月22日便在线上举办抖音618招商大会，提前为618招兵买马，还提出了“兴趣电商”的概念。\n事实上，直播电商是个极具空间的电商子赛道。据艾瑞咨询预测，2025年直播电商规模有望达到6.4万亿，渗透率达到23.9%。\n\n为什么直播电商能火？总的来看，除了此前疫情下人们宅家时间变长、以及平台的流量配给红利，更重要的是，直播电商调动了用户更多感官，信息量与冲击力远超图文。\n具体来看，淘宝、抖音、快手三大核心平台的直播电商逻辑各不相同。\n淘宝直播是以“搜索”作为主要的消费路径，即“人找货”模式。\n抖音直播走的是“内容路径”的兴趣电商。通过算法筛选出优质内容，将商品精准推荐、分发给用户，这种以“兴趣标签”为媒介将商品内容精确匹配潜在用户的模式，形成了“边逛边买”的发现式消费，本质是“货找人”。\n快手直播则又走了另一条路，强调主播和粉丝的深度信任。根据快手财报，其电商用户平均复购率由2019年的45%提升至2020年的65%。\n对比下来我们会发现，直播电商虽然呈现出三足鼎立的态势，但各家用的是“错位竞争”的打法。\n错位竞争是个不错的进攻思路，尤其对初创企业。\n混沌大学创始人李善友曾讲过一条创业准则：与其更好，不如不同。这句话说的是，企业要想在残酷的竞争中生存，尽量不要和实力强大的巨头正面竞争，要利用差异化夺取胜利。\n克里斯坦森曾在那本著名的《创新者的窘境》中给出一组数字：初创企业如果和现有巨头正面直接竞争，成功率只有6%，而如果和巨头错开，跳到新的价值网，创业成功率则将提升至37%。\n对应到近几年国内崛起的巨头案例：拼多多早期聚焦五环外下沉市场，和天猫、京东形成错位，随后快速崛起；美团崛起，有很大一部分原因是聚焦外卖等生活服务电商，与阿里的实物电商形成错位。\n可以看出，由于各家打法不同，未来的市场争夺将异常激烈。\n如果我们把视角扩大，直播电商这种新商业形态本身，在某种意义上也和传统的图文、线下超市形成了错位竞争。而凭借着较低的渗透率，直播电商自身未来也必将对其他电商模式形成冲击。\n在这个层面上，现有电商巨头和潜在电商巨头未来必有一战。\n总的来看，由于新品类的渗透率快速提升，电商业未来几年依然能保持一定的增速。但正如刘慈欣在《三体》中写到的“消灭你，与你无关”，新模式的出现，可能使得未来整个行业的竞争格局发生重构，这令当下在场的玩家基本面具有一定不确定性。\n从股价的角度来看，金融市场对股票的定价基于预期，不断超预期的基本面表现，是股价上涨的根本动力。所以对企业而言，如何保持竞争优势？如何稳定并扭转市场预期？是当下需要思考的关键问题。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842854374,"gmtCreate":1636164519586,"gmtModify":1636164593904,"author":{"id":"3586055114434039","authorId":"3586055114434039","name":"loychng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb649759892edacaa4759c163304f09d","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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