7e040c23的个人主页 - 老虎社区

7e040c23

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IP属地：广东

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2021-06-27

重重的飛啊

2021-06-22

神人

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-21

$洲際交易所(ICE)$放量下跌來到支撐

2021-06-20

油價回條

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-20

$泰利福(TFX)$来到了支撑线

2021-06-19

$阿米斯医疗(AMED)$这股跌破支撑，寻找下个支撑

2021-06-18

$佳禾智能(300793)$所有科技股都暴涨

2021-06-18

科技衝啊

“诺安大涨”上热搜！蔡经理今天或赚7个点

2021-06-15

說的對

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-06

請問如何認證資深投資者？

2021-06-01

[惊讶]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-01

大家對a股今天的看法如何，本人覺得回調是好的

2021-05-31

rip

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-29

Why I cannot buy a share?

2021-05-24

[微笑]

2021年，为何年轻的CEO们都在激流勇退？

2021-05-24

Rip

抱歉，原内容已删除

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href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8Hn7OeeLT1sL0uM_JEf9PQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/753c9aba3202037bc97463c545d5d015","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8Hn7OeeLT1sL0uM_JEf9PQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166346976","content_text":"半导体板块今日大涨近8%，相关概念股掀起涨停潮！\n顶流基金经理蔡嵩松管理的诺安成长混合，估算净值上涨7.28%，秒杀一众大佬，再次引爆热搜。\n\n图片来源：微博\n有基金经理表示，半导体行业供需紧张是近期板块上涨的主逻辑。随着下游多领域需求增长驱动芯片需求爆发，叠加近期市场流动性较为充裕，半导体板块高景气度或将持续。\n半导体板块大涨近8%\n6月17日，A股主要指数反弹。申万二级行业中，半导体、航运、元件涨幅居前，半导体板块更是大涨7.98%，并登上微博热搜。\n\n图片来源：Wind\n个股方面，申万二级半导体行业中46只成分股全部飘红，38只成分股涨逾5%，全志科技、台基股份等涨停。\n\n图片来源：Wind\n诺安蔡嵩松再上热搜\n在此背景下，以重仓半导体板块而闻名的基金经理诺安基金蔡嵩松再次被推上热搜，被网友誉为“长在热搜上的男人”。\n天天基金APP显示，蔡嵩松管理的诺安成长混合基金6月17日估算净值涨幅高达7.28%，秒杀一众大佬。截至6月16日，近1个月诺安成长混合上涨11.17%，今年来上涨3.64%。\n\n图片来源：天天基金APP\n有不少基民打算从今天开始“追随”蔡经理。\n\n图片来源：社交网络\n不过，更多基民表示见多了这样的大风大浪，还是要选择及时止盈。\n\n图片来源：诺安成长混合基金吧\n机构看好半导体板块\n东方基金基金经理李瑞表示，全球缺芯状况正在持续，日本光刻胶供不应求再次拉升半导体板块热度。国内半导体企业预计全年业绩走高，且逻辑更加确定。近期市场流动性较为充裕，市场更偏好成长性强的板块。\n天弘基金股票投资研究部科技组组长陈国光认为，供需紧张主要利好两类企业：一是能够拿到产能的公司，将逐渐占领更多的份额；二是产能分配不足的子领域，可以享受产品涨价带来的利润率提升。\n中信建投证券称，全球半导体设备市场将在2021-2022年进一步增长，半导体设备行业景气周期有望进一步延续。另外，半导体设备企业业绩高增，2021年一季度海外半导体设备龙头企业业绩多实现两连增。展望未来，不少公司认为其业绩上升将持续。\n陈国光表示，行情演绎到现在，需求持续性是最值得关注的指标。继手机销量逐渐疲软之后，近期可以观察到半导体中的涨价品种涨价趋势逐渐收敛。如果供需紧张趋缓的预期形成，未来则主要看好几个方向：一是产能仍然结构性偏紧的赛道，包括电源管理等从8寸往12寸迁移较为困难的产品；二是需求仍然处在爆发期的赛道，包括智能家居在内的万物互联、汽车智能化电气化等方向；三是射频、模拟、半导体设备。\n对于科技板块的操作思路，陈国光表示，半导体板块的配置主要在核心设计公司以及国内顶级设备公司，计算机板块的配置重点在AI龙头和汽车智能化龙头。同时，对消费电子品牌端比较看好。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":661,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":160022981,"gmtCreate":1623767173243,"gmtModify":1634028618948,"author":{"id":"3584739632942904","authorId":"3584739632942904","name":"7e040c23","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584739632942904","authorIdStr":"3584739632942904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"說的對","listText":"說的對","text":"說的對","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160022981","repostId":"1149991028","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":792,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":115886957,"gmtCreate":1622971089279,"gmtModify":1634096475743,"author":{"id":"3584739632942904","authorId":"3584739632942904","name":"7e040c23","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584739632942904","authorIdStr":"3584739632942904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"請問如何認證資深投資者？","listText":"請問如何認證資深投資者？","text":"請問如何認證資深投資者？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e150c8d1ca9418eb67f5d36ed957dec0","width":"640","height":"1136"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115886957","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":119395402,"gmtCreate":1622517808606,"gmtModify":1634100883973,"author":{"id":"3584739632942904","authorId":"3584739632942904","name":"7e040c23","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584739632942904","authorIdStr":"3584739632942904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119395402","repostId":"1108979904","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":119392618,"gmtCreate":1622517724434,"gmtModify":1634100885047,"author":{"id":"3584739632942904","authorId":"3584739632942904","name":"7e040c23","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584739632942904","authorIdStr":"3584739632942904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"大家對a股今天的看法如何，本人覺得回調是好的","listText":"大家對a股今天的看法如何，本人覺得回調是好的","text":"大家對a股今天的看法如何，本人覺得回調是好的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119392618","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":110034487,"gmtCreate":1622416568249,"gmtModify":1634101790274,"author":{"id":"3584739632942904","authorId":"3584739632942904","name":"7e040c23","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crm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share?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/936410dd2bc6b10dd7182b5a8a2400a7","width":"750","height":"1334"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137301797","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":131004788,"gmtCreate":1621815301344,"gmtModify":1634186468577,"author":{"id":"3584739632942904","authorId":"3584739632942904","name":"7e040c23","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584739632942904","authorIdStr":"3584739632942904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/131004788","repostId":"1159987430","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159987430","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621763059,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159987430?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-23 17:44","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"2021年，为何年轻的CEO们都在激流勇退？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159987430","media":"Tech星球","summary":"不愿止步于前，只想不断创造出新的故事。","content":"<p>文/乔雪、王慧莹、翟元元</p>\n<p>在张一鸣宣布卸任CEO后，字节跳动的官网放出了一条怀旧视频，“字节跳动7周年”，公司几位创始元老要一起重回创业的旧岛屿——锦秋家园。</p>\n<p>张一鸣先到，他对随行人员说，梁汝波没来吗？</p>\n<p>随后的镜头给到梁汝波，他白白胖胖的圆脸满是喜悦的回忆，“我去过很多创业团队，很多都有蟑螂，这里没有蟑螂，超出我预期了。”</p>\n<p>当初，相比于现在更广泛被简称为“字节”，这家公司更常被称为“头条”，它的第一个明星产品“今日头条”就于此诞生，由此，开启了不可逆的全球扩张之路。</p>\n<p>如今，字节跳动已经跳动了近10年，业务足迹已经跳过全球几十个国家，拥有地段繁华高级的写字楼，办公地点遍布240多处；张一鸣口中的“梁汝波”，现在成为这家10万人庞大“APP超级工厂”的掌舵者。在此前，梁汝波的身份颇为低调，飞书和效率工程负责人，字节人力资源和管理负责人等工作，与字节中国董事长张利东和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>负责人张楠相比，都显得隐形，而在大学室友张一鸣的心里，他却是最值得信任的CEO人选。</p>\n<p>张一鸣曾经说过，要把公司当成一款产品来运营，如今，字节跳动已成为一艘巨轮，他却选择隐退，去开启一个新旅程，拥抱新的可能性。</p>\n<p>不久前，超速登上富豪榜的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>创始人黄峥也是以这种方式卸下董事长和CEO的光环。这几个剪影让我们看到，新一代的互联网企业CEO们新的管理方式，他们不恋权，不烦恼公司的接班人，不愿止步于前，只想不断创造出新的故事。</p>\n<p><b>急流勇退的80后CEO</b></p>\n<p>五年前，黄峥在央视《对话》栏目中调侃张一鸣：“如果我是张一鸣，我会更加激进地做全球化。”</p>\n<p>一直以狼性居称的张一鸣不甘示弱，现场回怼：“你为什么一定要去做人家已经做好的领域呢，你应该去创新，去做别人没做好的领域。”</p>\n<p>有趣的是，后来，字节跳动用前所未有的速度去出海，2020年3月，字节跳动组织架构升级，张一鸣将中国业务交给张利东、张楠，自己All in 公司全球化。而拼多多，则利用社交裂变的创新在阿里电商帝国的裂缝里撕开了一道缺口，开始了逆袭之路。</p>\n<p>两位80后互联网“新贵”的针锋相对，在五年后却殊途同归，相继上演卸任CEO的相同戏码。</p>\n<p>2020年7月，黄峥辞任拼多多CEO，今年3月，又辞任拼多多董事长，当时，拼多多市值已达到千亿美元，并超越阿里成为中国用户规模最大的电商平台。如今，张一鸣宣布辞任CEO，也恰逢字节估值4000亿美元，频频传出上市传闻之际。</p>\n<p>潮水的涌动似乎暗示着，高处不胜寒。</p>\n<p>张一鸣曾被问过，如果有天被对手全面超越，原因可能是什么。他答：先后顺序是——竞争、政策环境变化、我自己的问题。</p>\n<p>现在的局面似乎在预言般的印证着张一鸣的远见，抖音的6亿月活接近天花板，Tik Tok命运依旧不明朗，字节全球化受阻；在无法更有力的改变对手、政策的情况下，对自己“下手”，或许是更明智的决策。</p>\n<p>一如他在内部信里说的那样，“每天要听很多汇报总结，做很多审批和决策，容易导致内部视角，知识结构更新缓慢。”</p>\n<p>快，曾是张一鸣应对世界的节奏。他喜欢并着迷于可以有迅速见效的事物，就连大学选专业的时候，先是报考了微电子专业，随后又转专业到软件工程。</p>\n<p>“你的行为，你的输出，都要快点看到变化。而计算机是最快的。”这套法则在做公司时也得到了极致地发挥。</p>\n<p>向往“快”“极致”的另一面是，张一鸣也喜欢说延迟满足，“很多人人生中一半的问题都是这个原因造成的——没有延迟满足感。延迟满足感本质是克服人性弱点，而克服弱点，是为了更多的自由。&nbsp;”或许，卸任CEO，是张一鸣在自己人生的延迟满足案例上，又做的一枚显著的注脚。</p>\n<p>“张一鸣真正的梦想是做一个Super Company，一个突破人类过去商业史所有边界和格局的Super Company。”B站董事长陈睿在接受《晚点》采访时如此形容张一鸣的野心，“太阳照得到的地方，都是我（张一鸣）的疆土。”</p>\n<p>不知道，现在的字节是不是张一鸣心中的Super Company，但目前看来，他仍不满意，“未来将系统性思考，为公司下一个十年创造更多可能”。</p>\n<p><b>掰倒巨头，成为巨头</b></p>\n<p>再将时间倒回，以张一鸣和黄峥为代表的这届互联网大厂CEO，都在奋力地赢得牌桌上的一个席位，他们的崛起，是一部野心勃勃，与巨头扳手腕，充满颠覆、挑战、重新建立游戏规则的激流勇敢进击史。</p>\n<p>2015年，字节另一超级App抖音还未上线，张一鸣便已开始用全球化的战略替公司谋划部署，彼时拼多多刚成立。</p>\n<p>一年后，短视频踩中风口，字节开始重点发力短视频，先后推出火山小视频、西瓜视频、抖音。可以说，字节从今日头条成长为字节帝国，几乎都是在2016年完成的无边界扩张。</p>\n<p>同样在2016年，业内有传闻称，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>即将对今日头条进行财务投资，给出高达80亿美元的估值。时任今日头条创始人兼CEO的张一鸣发公开信辟谣，表示“不抱大腿”。当时，张一鸣曾说：“最近有同事郑重地跟我说，他加入头条的目的不是为了成为腾讯员工。我当然也不是，多没意思。”</p>\n<p>在那个互联网格局长期稳定在“BAT”，创业者不得不站队的时代，创业成功的标志是能拿到一张BAT的船票，张一鸣可能是为数不多站在巨头对立面的创业者。</p>\n<p>风口浪尖时，张一鸣参加央视《对话》节目时直言，“创立头条，不是为了成为腾讯的员工。希望能够成为一个对社会有很大价值的平台级公司，头条还是有自己的志向的。”</p>\n<p>此后，字节收购musicly，推出海外版抖音“TIKTOK”，商业版图再增一名得力“战将”。</p>\n<p>拼多多则在这个时期开启疯狂烧钱，抢占用户心智。从“五环外”崛起，到农村包围城市，从下沉市场到反攻一二线城市，崛起路径快速且精准。洗脑歌曲“拼多多，拼多多，拼得多省的多”彷佛开了单曲循环模式。连微信一向克制的生态也为拼多多“砍一刀”网开一面，后者在争议与高速增长的割裂态势下野蛮生长。</p>\n<p>2018年，抖音迎来爆发式增长，日活超越快手，成为短视频赛道第一名。</p>\n<p>字节跳动与腾讯在各个领域的竞争开始公开化。为了抵御抖音进攻，腾讯不得不重启短视频项目“微视”。</p>\n<p>张一鸣与马化腾两位创始人甚至亲自下场在朋友圈开战。张一鸣称 “微信的借口封杀，微视的抄袭搬运挡不住抖音的步伐。”马化腾直接在张一鸣朋友圈底下回应：“可以理解为诽谤。”</p>\n<p>同样是2018年，拼多多上市前的员工大会上，黄峥表示，未来三年要在GMV上超过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>。2019年，黄峥对拼多多新战役进行总结——黄峥对内宣布拼多多真实支付GMV超过京东，比预计时间提前了两年。</p>\n<p>2019年拼多多实现成交额10066亿元，成为最快突破万亿GMV的电商平台。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>突破万亿的时间为14年，京东则用了20年。</p>\n<p>字节跳动虽未上市，据传资本市场已将其估值推高到4000亿美元。今日头条、抖音两大超级App成为字节傲视群雄的“倚天”“屠龙”。张一鸣的对手不再只是马化腾，字节逐渐杀入社交、游戏、教育、金融、电商、搜索，深入每一家巨头原本的腹地。</p>\n<p>在字节跳动九周年的演讲上，张一鸣分享，总有同事和他抱怨，这种竞争怎么没完没了，到底什么时候才结束？张一鸣给出的回答是，把竞争当作常态，不要逃避竞争。</p>\n<p>当自己成为了那只巨龙，放下屠龙刀，成为了这届CEO的新解。当然，这是勇敢者的游戏。</p>\n<p><b>学不来的勇敢者游戏</b></p>\n<p>19岁时，还在美国加州读书的孙正义，给自己立下了一段flag：</p>\n<p>“无论如何，20多岁的时候，正式开创事业、扬名立万；30多岁的时候，至少要赚到1000亿日元；40岁的时候，为干出一番大事业，开始出击；50多岁的时候，成就大业；60多岁，交棒给下任管理者。”</p>\n<p>现年63岁的日本首富孙正义，掌舵着年净利润（2020财年）高达4.9879万亿日元的软银集团，却找不到“下一个孙正义”，迟迟无法将权杖交出。</p>\n<p>与孙正义类似，更多的上一代互联网CEO们选择守成。江湖里已有早已打下的一片江山，但曾经的创始人们并不甘心撤退；于自己，是要自己巩固好这一份基业，于公司，是在关键节点还需要最熟悉它的人去运筹帷幄，放弃的这门哲学并不容易。</p>\n<p>梁建章求学1年短暂离开，2013年便要回归救携程于群雄争霸中，二次卸下重担，4年后仍然重回到携程，甚至亲身下场直播拉订单，不可谓不尽心；李彦宏，虽然早在8年前，就有过退休的想法，但目前来看，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>仍是李彦宏的百度；创业老兵雷军不仅操持小米上上下下，事无巨细，连包装盒都要把控细节，还做起小米代言人，今年更是为了小米能有更漂亮的第二曲线，带头造车。</p>\n<p>互联网的第一代CEO们轻易不下牌桌，将公司牢牢掌握在手中，而反观，第二代的CEO们早已走上另一条道路。在外界看起来极不恋权的背后，是他们区隔前一代人思维的跃迁。</p>\n<p>张一鸣说，自己过去三年都在 “吃老本”，认知也跟不上技术的新发展，而新的技术变革已经在酝酿中。他指出，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>自18年前就开始相关的试验和努力了。卸任 CEO 是为了恢复思考、重拾对生命科学、虚拟现实、科学计算等新技术的敏感度。</p>\n<p>黄峥辞去拼多多则说：“而今一晃已过不惑之年，想成为真正的科学家也许已经不太可能，但如果我努力，把中学里最喜欢的化学、大学里学的计算机、工作中学习的经营管理结合起来，我天真的想，说不定也能再做出点有意思的事儿。”</p>\n<p>张一鸣几年前在一次旅途中，发朋友圈：旅行的部分意义在于时空切换，更容易把主体当作客体， 审视自己和生活本身。</p>\n<p>字节的确面对这这样的战争，虽然版图越来越大，但除了信息流产品和短视频，至今没能找到第三条赛道为互联网江湖再生波澜，当竞争和内卷已经成为常态，真正的创新，也许不在内部，需要跳出原本的内部视角去寻找和思考。</p>\n<p>张一鸣是这样理解浪漫的，“精致的文艺不是浪漫，粗糙的宏大是浪漫，新事物都是粗糙的。晒情怀故意感动别人不是浪漫，独立思考穿越喧嚣是浪漫。有生命力是浪漫，面向未来是浪漫，拥抱不确定性是浪漫，保持可能性是浪漫。”把卸任CEO之后当作一场旅程，用外部视角来观察公司，去探索更多可能，向创新不断求索，才是属于理工男的极致浪漫，这大概真的才是勇敢者的游戏。</p>\n<p>虽然，但竞争不会停止，跳动也不会，但向后一步，或许应验了张一鸣曾说过的“放小自己，放大格局”。</p>","source":"techxq","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2021年，为何年轻的CEO们都在激流勇退？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2021年，为何年轻的CEO们都在激流勇退？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-23 17:44 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2021-05-23/doc-ikmyaawc6980298.shtml><strong>Tech星球</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文/乔雪、王慧莹、翟元元\n在张一鸣宣布卸任CEO后，字节跳动的官网放出了一条怀旧视频，“字节跳动7周年”，公司几位创始元老要一起重回创业的旧岛屿——锦秋家园。\n张一鸣先到，他对随行人员说，梁汝波没来吗？\n随后的镜头给到梁汝波，他白白胖胖的圆脸满是喜悦的回忆，“我去过很多创业团队，很多都有蟑螂，这里没有蟑螂，超出我预期了。”\n当初，相比于现在更广泛被简称为“字节”，这家公司更常被称为“头条”，它的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2021-05-23/doc-ikmyaawc6980298.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc0d9459911bfb890663ce7587256aa0","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2021-05-23/doc-ikmyaawc6980298.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159987430","content_text":"文/乔雪、王慧莹、翟元元\n在张一鸣宣布卸任CEO后，字节跳动的官网放出了一条怀旧视频，“字节跳动7周年”，公司几位创始元老要一起重回创业的旧岛屿——锦秋家园。\n张一鸣先到，他对随行人员说，梁汝波没来吗？\n随后的镜头给到梁汝波，他白白胖胖的圆脸满是喜悦的回忆，“我去过很多创业团队，很多都有蟑螂，这里没有蟑螂，超出我预期了。”\n当初，相比于现在更广泛被简称为“字节”，这家公司更常被称为“头条”，它的第一个明星产品“今日头条”就于此诞生，由此，开启了不可逆的全球扩张之路。\n如今，字节跳动已经跳动了近10年，业务足迹已经跳过全球几十个国家，拥有地段繁华高级的写字楼，办公地点遍布240多处；张一鸣口中的“梁汝波”，现在成为这家10万人庞大“APP超级工厂”的掌舵者。在此前，梁汝波的身份颇为低调，飞书和效率工程负责人，字节人力资源和管理负责人等工作，与字节中国董事长张利东和抖音负责人张楠相比，都显得隐形，而在大学室友张一鸣的心里，他却是最值得信任的CEO人选。\n张一鸣曾经说过，要把公司当成一款产品来运营，如今，字节跳动已成为一艘巨轮，他却选择隐退，去开启一个新旅程，拥抱新的可能性。\n不久前，超速登上富豪榜的拼多多创始人黄峥也是以这种方式卸下董事长和CEO的光环。这几个剪影让我们看到，新一代的互联网企业CEO们新的管理方式，他们不恋权，不烦恼公司的接班人，不愿止步于前，只想不断创造出新的故事。\n急流勇退的80后CEO\n五年前，黄峥在央视《对话》栏目中调侃张一鸣：“如果我是张一鸣，我会更加激进地做全球化。”\n一直以狼性居称的张一鸣不甘示弱，现场回怼：“你为什么一定要去做人家已经做好的领域呢，你应该去创新，去做别人没做好的领域。”\n有趣的是，后来，字节跳动用前所未有的速度去出海，2020年3月，字节跳动组织架构升级，张一鸣将中国业务交给张利东、张楠，自己All in 公司全球化。而拼多多，则利用社交裂变的创新在阿里电商帝国的裂缝里撕开了一道缺口，开始了逆袭之路。\n两位80后互联网“新贵”的针锋相对，在五年后却殊途同归，相继上演卸任CEO的相同戏码。\n2020年7月，黄峥辞任拼多多CEO，今年3月，又辞任拼多多董事长，当时，拼多多市值已达到千亿美元，并超越阿里成为中国用户规模最大的电商平台。如今，张一鸣宣布辞任CEO，也恰逢字节估值4000亿美元，频频传出上市传闻之际。\n潮水的涌动似乎暗示着，高处不胜寒。\n张一鸣曾被问过，如果有天被对手全面超越，原因可能是什么。他答：先后顺序是——竞争、政策环境变化、我自己的问题。\n现在的局面似乎在预言般的印证着张一鸣的远见，抖音的6亿月活接近天花板，Tik Tok命运依旧不明朗，字节全球化受阻；在无法更有力的改变对手、政策的情况下，对自己“下手”，或许是更明智的决策。\n一如他在内部信里说的那样，“每天要听很多汇报总结，做很多审批和决策，容易导致内部视角，知识结构更新缓慢。”\n快，曾是张一鸣应对世界的节奏。他喜欢并着迷于可以有迅速见效的事物，就连大学选专业的时候，先是报考了微电子专业，随后又转专业到软件工程。\n“你的行为，你的输出，都要快点看到变化。而计算机是最快的。”这套法则在做公司时也得到了极致地发挥。\n向往“快”“极致”的另一面是，张一鸣也喜欢说延迟满足，“很多人人生中一半的问题都是这个原因造成的——没有延迟满足感。延迟满足感本质是克服人性弱点，而克服弱点，是为了更多的自由。 ”或许，卸任CEO，是张一鸣在自己人生的延迟满足案例上，又做的一枚显著的注脚。\n“张一鸣真正的梦想是做一个Super Company，一个突破人类过去商业史所有边界和格局的Super Company。”B站董事长陈睿在接受《晚点》采访时如此形容张一鸣的野心，“太阳照得到的地方，都是我（张一鸣）的疆土。”\n不知道，现在的字节是不是张一鸣心中的Super Company，但目前看来，他仍不满意，“未来将系统性思考，为公司下一个十年创造更多可能”。\n掰倒巨头，成为巨头\n再将时间倒回，以张一鸣和黄峥为代表的这届互联网大厂CEO，都在奋力地赢得牌桌上的一个席位，他们的崛起，是一部野心勃勃，与巨头扳手腕，充满颠覆、挑战、重新建立游戏规则的激流勇敢进击史。\n2015年，字节另一超级App抖音还未上线，张一鸣便已开始用全球化的战略替公司谋划部署，彼时拼多多刚成立。\n一年后，短视频踩中风口，字节开始重点发力短视频，先后推出火山小视频、西瓜视频、抖音。可以说，字节从今日头条成长为字节帝国，几乎都是在2016年完成的无边界扩张。\n同样在2016年，业内有传闻称，腾讯即将对今日头条进行财务投资，给出高达80亿美元的估值。时任今日头条创始人兼CEO的张一鸣发公开信辟谣，表示“不抱大腿”。当时，张一鸣曾说：“最近有同事郑重地跟我说，他加入头条的目的不是为了成为腾讯员工。我当然也不是，多没意思。”\n在那个互联网格局长期稳定在“BAT”，创业者不得不站队的时代，创业成功的标志是能拿到一张BAT的船票，张一鸣可能是为数不多站在巨头对立面的创业者。\n风口浪尖时，张一鸣参加央视《对话》节目时直言，“创立头条，不是为了成为腾讯的员工。希望能够成为一个对社会有很大价值的平台级公司，头条还是有自己的志向的。”\n此后，字节收购musicly，推出海外版抖音“TIKTOK”，商业版图再增一名得力“战将”。\n拼多多则在这个时期开启疯狂烧钱，抢占用户心智。从“五环外”崛起，到农村包围城市，从下沉市场到反攻一二线城市，崛起路径快速且精准。洗脑歌曲“拼多多，拼多多，拼得多省的多”彷佛开了单曲循环模式。连微信一向克制的生态也为拼多多“砍一刀”网开一面，后者在争议与高速增长的割裂态势下野蛮生长。\n2018年，抖音迎来爆发式增长，日活超越快手，成为短视频赛道第一名。\n字节跳动与腾讯在各个领域的竞争开始公开化。为了抵御抖音进攻，腾讯不得不重启短视频项目“微视”。\n张一鸣与马化腾两位创始人甚至亲自下场在朋友圈开战。张一鸣称 “微信的借口封杀，微视的抄袭搬运挡不住抖音的步伐。”马化腾直接在张一鸣朋友圈底下回应：“可以理解为诽谤。”\n同样是2018年，拼多多上市前的员工大会上，黄峥表示，未来三年要在GMV上超过京东。2019年，黄峥对拼多多新战役进行总结——黄峥对内宣布拼多多真实支付GMV超过京东，比预计时间提前了两年。\n2019年拼多多实现成交额10066亿元，成为最快突破万亿GMV的电商平台。阿里巴巴突破万亿的时间为14年，京东则用了20年。\n字节跳动虽未上市，据传资本市场已将其估值推高到4000亿美元。今日头条、抖音两大超级App成为字节傲视群雄的“倚天”“屠龙”。张一鸣的对手不再只是马化腾，字节逐渐杀入社交、游戏、教育、金融、电商、搜索，深入每一家巨头原本的腹地。\n在字节跳动九周年的演讲上，张一鸣分享，总有同事和他抱怨，这种竞争怎么没完没了，到底什么时候才结束？张一鸣给出的回答是，把竞争当作常态，不要逃避竞争。\n当自己成为了那只巨龙，放下屠龙刀，成为了这届CEO的新解。当然，这是勇敢者的游戏。\n学不来的勇敢者游戏\n19岁时，还在美国加州读书的孙正义，给自己立下了一段flag：\n“无论如何，20多岁的时候，正式开创事业、扬名立万；30多岁的时候，至少要赚到1000亿日元；40岁的时候，为干出一番大事业，开始出击；50多岁的时候，成就大业；60多岁，交棒给下任管理者。”\n现年63岁的日本首富孙正义，掌舵着年净利润（2020财年）高达4.9879万亿日元的软银集团，却找不到“下一个孙正义”，迟迟无法将权杖交出。\n与孙正义类似，更多的上一代互联网CEO们选择守成。江湖里已有早已打下的一片江山，但曾经的创始人们并不甘心撤退；于自己，是要自己巩固好这一份基业，于公司，是在关键节点还需要最熟悉它的人去运筹帷幄，放弃的这门哲学并不容易。\n梁建章求学1年短暂离开，2013年便要回归救携程于群雄争霸中，二次卸下重担，4年后仍然重回到携程，甚至亲身下场直播拉订单，不可谓不尽心；李彦宏，虽然早在8年前，就有过退休的想法，但目前来看，百度仍是李彦宏的百度；创业老兵雷军不仅操持小米上上下下，事无巨细，连包装盒都要把控细节，还做起小米代言人，今年更是为了小米能有更漂亮的第二曲线，带头造车。\n互联网的第一代CEO们轻易不下牌桌，将公司牢牢掌握在手中，而反观，第二代的CEO们早已走上另一条道路。在外界看起来极不恋权的背后，是他们区隔前一代人思维的跃迁。\n张一鸣说，自己过去三年都在 “吃老本”，认知也跟不上技术的新发展，而新的技术变革已经在酝酿中。他指出，特斯拉自18年前就开始相关的试验和努力了。卸任 CEO 是为了恢复思考、重拾对生命科学、虚拟现实、科学计算等新技术的敏感度。\n黄峥辞去拼多多则说：“而今一晃已过不惑之年，想成为真正的科学家也许已经不太可能，但如果我努力，把中学里最喜欢的化学、大学里学的计算机、工作中学习的经营管理结合起来，我天真的想，说不定也能再做出点有意思的事儿。”\n张一鸣几年前在一次旅途中，发朋友圈：旅行的部分意义在于时空切换，更容易把主体当作客体， 审视自己和生活本身。\n字节的确面对这这样的战争，虽然版图越来越大，但除了信息流产品和短视频，至今没能找到第三条赛道为互联网江湖再生波澜，当竞争和内卷已经成为常态，真正的创新，也许不在内部，需要跳出原本的内部视角去寻找和思考。\n张一鸣是这样理解浪漫的，“精致的文艺不是浪漫，粗糙的宏大是浪漫，新事物都是粗糙的。晒情怀故意感动别人不是浪漫，独立思考穿越喧嚣是浪漫。有生命力是浪漫，面向未来是浪漫，拥抱不确定性是浪漫，保持可能性是浪漫。”把卸任CEO之后当作一场旅程，用外部视角来观察公司，去探索更多可能，向创新不断求索，才是属于理工男的极致浪漫，这大概真的才是勇敢者的游戏。\n虽然，但竞争不会停止，跳动也不会，但向后一步，或许应验了张一鸣曾说过的“放小自己，放大格局”。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":131005939,"gmtCreate":1621815185321,"gmtModify":1634186469742,"author":{"id":"3584739632942904","authorId":"3584739632942904","name":"7e040c23","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584739632942904","authorIdStr":"3584739632942904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Rip","listText":"Rip","text":"Rip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/131005939","repostId":"1128955452","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":120213993,"gmtCreate":1624324387712,"gmtModify":1634007815783,"author":{"id":"3584739632942904","authorId":"3584739632942904","name":"7e040c23","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584739632942904","authorIdStr":"3584739632942904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"神人","listText":"神人","text":"神人","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120213993","repostId":"2145771034","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":964,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":164515050,"gmtCreate":1624229280170,"gmtModify":1631888909835,"author":{"id":"3584739632942904","authorId":"3584739632942904","name":"7e040c23","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584739632942904","authorIdStr":"3584739632942904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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09:49","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"美元指数成为油价前行的绊脚石？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144465706","media":"格隆汇","summary":"从长期考量，如果需求恢复速度比较快，有可能会出现供给端的严重紧缺，这就要看OPEC以及美国等产油国面对如此高油价的诱惑何时开始加大投资。","content":"<p>本周美联储首次暗示将会在2023年底前加息两次，并将隔夜逆回购工具利率和超额准备金利率上调5个基点，这被市场解读为美联储的鹰派态度。受此影响黄金价格大跌两日，铜价格也出现大幅下滑，几乎所有大宗商品都没能幸免。金融市场风向转变给了多头当头一棒，就连最强势的原油也大幅下挫，不过相对于其他商品动辄5%—10%的回调幅度来说，原油依然表现不俗。</p>\n<p>本周原油价格在冲击75美元/桶遇挫之后开始高位窄幅整理，从64美元/桶上行至74美元/桶之后开始调整。除此之外，原油市场的超级周期再次被提及，主要逻辑在于上游投资不足导致未来原油产能不足，一旦原油需求快速恢复，供给端难以在短时间内提供相应的产能。从全球的钻井平台数上我们也能看出这一迹象，在原油价格大幅上行之后，全球钻井平台数并未出现明显的增长，不论是美国还是OPEC均是如此，在经历了超级大跌后，市场对于上游投资明显更加谨慎。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e363c674afba2f3d31d303b6564ccb5e\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>综合来看，美元指数大涨，原油价格也很难脱离周边市场影响，因此价格盘整很正常。目前来看，布伦特油价盘整区间应该为70—75美元/桶，未来依然要紧盯美元指数的变化，倘若美元指数继续大幅上行，那么不排除油价跌破70美元/桶的可能，如果美元指数涨势趋缓甚至走弱，那么原油仍有上涨动能。</p>\n<h3><b>美元指数成为油价前行的绊脚石？</b></h3>\n<p>周四美联储发布了6月FOMC利率决议，随后美元指数出现了久违的大涨，黄金价格从高点暴跌60美元/盎司，美股从高位回落，铜等大宗商品也未能幸免，原油75美元/桶冲关失败，市场的主要逻辑点似乎正在慢慢转变。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b850d8653515001b09d53a14c5fdc955\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9fa632f6ea5c9af8484380afff01e12\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在周四的会议后，鲍威尔还是比较顾及市场感受，未给出缩减QE的具体时间，力图淡化市场上可能存在的“加息恐慌”，称“加息尚在遥远的未来”，同时鲍威尔还表示一旦美联储有收紧货币的政策，将会提前通知市场。美媒分析称，美联储关于疫情和经济风险的措辞更加积极，但随着更多的美联储成员变得鹰派，在今年年底之前，美联储有较大可能会提前缩减购债规模。</p>\n<p>原油价格最近一年之所以能够如此之强，除了与供给收缩，需求恢复有关以外，也与全球通胀预期有着直接的关系。美联储放水直接拉高了原油价格，倘若美国收紧货币政策，那么即便是基本面向好，多头也必须顶着美元指数的压力拉抬油价，这无疑将给多头带来更多的阻力。</p>\n<p>回看几次原油市场的超级周期，布伦特价格在85美元/桶之上时美元指数都在80点之下，原油价格如果想在75美元/桶之上依旧维持牛市行情，需要美元指数保持相对弱势，即便是在某些时间内会出现美元指数和油价同涨的情况，但油价上行的空间比较有限。如果未来原油市场要出现超级周期，美元指数就不能够大幅走强。</p>\n<p>不过根据美联储的预测，即便是加息也会在2023年，因此在很长一段时间内美国都将保持相对较低的市场利率。虽然加息之前原油市场不会受到较大干扰，但短期预期的影响让油价变得更加扑朔迷离。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8a62390685d10bbc30f2623317c86b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图为美元指数与原油价格（来源：WIND）</p>\n<h3><b>投资不足引发超级周期？</b></h3>\n<p>最近市场有一种声音：多头们将目光投向了更远的未来——投资不足。包括沙特、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>、托克等中上游公司纷纷发出警告，在投资不足的当下，未来很有可能会出现原油价格的超级周期。</p>\n<p>沙特阿拉伯能源大臣表示，勘探开采方面缺乏新投资可能会引发全球油价新一轮超级周期。知情人士称，沙特能源大臣周三在Robin Hood投资者大会上表示，他的工作是防止出现这样的超级周期。他过去一直警告投机者当心做空的危险性。在连续出现石油萧条之后，一些国有石油公司和国际勘探公司缩减了勘探开采预算，以节省现金并避免新的供应过剩。包括沙特能源大臣在内的很多人担心资本开支削减过度，在需求反弹的情况下可能导致原油供应吃紧。</p>\n<p>摩根大通石油和天然气研究主管在全球峰会上表示，该银行已确定2021年至2030 年之间有6000亿美元的上游投资缺口，这种短缺将使市场的天平进一步向沙特阿拉伯等欧佩克核心成员国倾斜，但最终可能会引发对传统上主要活跃成员国的闲置产能是否充足的质疑。</p>\n<p>托克石油交易联席主管也表达了对上游投资不足的担忧。他强调：“油市兴奋地摆脱了冠状病毒，但投资也不足。在过去的七年中，我们已经损失了世界三分之二的勘探和生产预算，大规模的投资不足很可能会在全球经济准备好过渡到可再生燃料之前卷土重来。”</p>\n<p>从以上言论我们能够看出供给端目前所面临的问题，虽然短期来看供给端可以和当前的需求相匹配，但一旦需求快速恢复，是否有足够的产能弥补供应缺口将成为重点。我们从钻井平台数也能够看出这一问题，虽然原油价格大幅飙升，但美国的钻井平台数以及美国原油产量并未明显增加、这说明经历了世纪负油价之后，上游的生产商对于投资的态度已经变得十分谨慎。</p>\n<p>由此类推，不仅是美国的生产商变谨慎，全球同样面临着这样的问题，在原油价格回到两年高点之后，全球的钻井平台数依然没有匹配价格增长，主要原因在于暴跌之后油价的反弹速度也比较快，在这么短的时间内开采商所积累的利润没有达到进一步投资的程度，尤其是在刚经历过价格暴跌生死轮回。</p>\n<p>从长期考量，如果需求恢复速度比较快，有可能会出现供给端的严重紧缺，这就要看OPEC以及美国等产油国面对如此高油价的诱惑何时开始加大投资。但即便是开始加大投资，距离产出仍需要较长一段时间，这时候就需要考验OPEC闲置产能的存量了。</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美元指数成为油价前行的绊脚石？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-20 09:49 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/470904><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本周美联储首次暗示将会在2023年底前加息两次，并将隔夜逆回购工具利率和超额准备金利率上调5个基点，这被市场解读为美联储的鹰派态度。受此影响黄金价格大跌两日，铜价格也出现大幅下滑，几乎所有大宗商品都没能幸免。金融市场风向转变给了多头当头一棒，就连最强势的原油也大幅下挫，不过相对于其他商品动辄5%—10%的回调幅度来说，原油依然表现不俗。\n本周原油价格在冲击75美元/桶遇挫之后开始高位窄幅整理，从...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/470904\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de019d346ae215b032b548e12d784857","relate_stocks":{"EUO":"欧元ETF-ProShares两倍做空","FXF":"瑞士法郎ETF-CurrencyShares","FXA":"澳元ETF-CurrencyShares","FXE":"欧元做多ETF-CurrencyShares","FXY":"日元ETF-CurrencyShares","FXB":"英镑ETF-CurrencyShares","FXC":"加元ETF-CurrencyShares","YCS":"日元ETF-ProShares两倍做空"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/470904","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2144465706","content_text":"本周美联储首次暗示将会在2023年底前加息两次，并将隔夜逆回购工具利率和超额准备金利率上调5个基点，这被市场解读为美联储的鹰派态度。受此影响黄金价格大跌两日，铜价格也出现大幅下滑，几乎所有大宗商品都没能幸免。金融市场风向转变给了多头当头一棒，就连最强势的原油也大幅下挫，不过相对于其他商品动辄5%—10%的回调幅度来说，原油依然表现不俗。\n本周原油价格在冲击75美元/桶遇挫之后开始高位窄幅整理，从64美元/桶上行至74美元/桶之后开始调整。除此之外，原油市场的超级周期再次被提及，主要逻辑在于上游投资不足导致未来原油产能不足，一旦原油需求快速恢复，供给端难以在短时间内提供相应的产能。从全球的钻井平台数上我们也能看出这一迹象，在原油价格大幅上行之后，全球钻井平台数并未出现明显的增长，不论是美国还是OPEC均是如此，在经历了超级大跌后，市场对于上游投资明显更加谨慎。\n\n综合来看，美元指数大涨，原油价格也很难脱离周边市场影响，因此价格盘整很正常。目前来看，布伦特油价盘整区间应该为70—75美元/桶，未来依然要紧盯美元指数的变化，倘若美元指数继续大幅上行，那么不排除油价跌破70美元/桶的可能，如果美元指数涨势趋缓甚至走弱，那么原油仍有上涨动能。\n美元指数成为油价前行的绊脚石？\n周四美联储发布了6月FOMC利率决议，随后美元指数出现了久违的大涨，黄金价格从高点暴跌60美元/盎司，美股从高位回落，铜等大宗商品也未能幸免，原油75美元/桶冲关失败，市场的主要逻辑点似乎正在慢慢转变。\n\n\n在周四的会议后，鲍威尔还是比较顾及市场感受，未给出缩减QE的具体时间，力图淡化市场上可能存在的“加息恐慌”，称“加息尚在遥远的未来”，同时鲍威尔还表示一旦美联储有收紧货币的政策，将会提前通知市场。美媒分析称，美联储关于疫情和经济风险的措辞更加积极，但随着更多的美联储成员变得鹰派，在今年年底之前，美联储有较大可能会提前缩减购债规模。\n原油价格最近一年之所以能够如此之强，除了与供给收缩，需求恢复有关以外，也与全球通胀预期有着直接的关系。美联储放水直接拉高了原油价格，倘若美国收紧货币政策，那么即便是基本面向好，多头也必须顶着美元指数的压力拉抬油价，这无疑将给多头带来更多的阻力。\n回看几次原油市场的超级周期，布伦特价格在85美元/桶之上时美元指数都在80点之下，原油价格如果想在75美元/桶之上依旧维持牛市行情，需要美元指数保持相对弱势，即便是在某些时间内会出现美元指数和油价同涨的情况，但油价上行的空间比较有限。如果未来原油市场要出现超级周期，美元指数就不能够大幅走强。\n不过根据美联储的预测，即便是加息也会在2023年，因此在很长一段时间内美国都将保持相对较低的市场利率。虽然加息之前原油市场不会受到较大干扰，但短期预期的影响让油价变得更加扑朔迷离。\n\n图为美元指数与原油价格（来源：WIND）\n投资不足引发超级周期？\n最近市场有一种声音：多头们将目光投向了更远的未来——投资不足。包括沙特、摩根大通、托克等中上游公司纷纷发出警告，在投资不足的当下，未来很有可能会出现原油价格的超级周期。\n沙特阿拉伯能源大臣表示，勘探开采方面缺乏新投资可能会引发全球油价新一轮超级周期。知情人士称，沙特能源大臣周三在Robin Hood投资者大会上表示，他的工作是防止出现这样的超级周期。他过去一直警告投机者当心做空的危险性。在连续出现石油萧条之后，一些国有石油公司和国际勘探公司缩减了勘探开采预算，以节省现金并避免新的供应过剩。包括沙特能源大臣在内的很多人担心资本开支削减过度，在需求反弹的情况下可能导致原油供应吃紧。\n摩根大通石油和天然气研究主管在全球峰会上表示，该银行已确定2021年至2030 年之间有6000亿美元的上游投资缺口，这种短缺将使市场的天平进一步向沙特阿拉伯等欧佩克核心成员国倾斜，但最终可能会引发对传统上主要活跃成员国的闲置产能是否充足的质疑。\n托克石油交易联席主管也表达了对上游投资不足的担忧。他强调：“油市兴奋地摆脱了冠状病毒，但投资也不足。在过去的七年中，我们已经损失了世界三分之二的勘探和生产预算，大规模的投资不足很可能会在全球经济准备好过渡到可再生燃料之前卷土重来。”\n从以上言论我们能够看出供给端目前所面临的问题，虽然短期来看供给端可以和当前的需求相匹配，但一旦需求快速恢复，是否有足够的产能弥补供应缺口将成为重点。我们从钻井平台数也能够看出这一问题，虽然原油价格大幅飙升，但美国的钻井平台数以及美国原油产量并未明显增加、这说明经历了世纪负油价之后，上游的生产商对于投资的态度已经变得十分谨慎。\n由此类推，不仅是美国的生产商变谨慎，全球同样面临着这样的问题，在原油价格回到两年高点之后，全球的钻井平台数依然没有匹配价格增长，主要原因在于暴跌之后油价的反弹速度也比较快，在这么短的时间内开采商所积累的利润没有达到进一步投资的程度，尤其是在刚经历过价格暴跌生死轮回。\n从长期考量，如果需求恢复速度比较快，有可能会出现供给端的严重紧缺，这就要看OPEC以及美国等产油国面对如此高油价的诱惑何时开始加大投资。但即便是开始加大投资，距离产出仍需要较长一段时间，这时候就需要考验OPEC闲置产能的存量了。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":164000848,"gmtCreate":1624159717984,"gmtModify":1631892378458,"author":{"id":"3584739632942904","authorId":"3584739632942904","name":"7e040c23","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584739632942904","authorIdStr":"3584739632942904"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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