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2023-03-15
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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高通胀和银行流动性危机两难下，美联储紧盯今晚2月CPI数据\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-14 12:26 北京时间 <a href=https://www.yicai.com/news/101700862.html><strong>第一财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>经济学家预期，美国2月消费者物价指数（CPI）将同比上涨6%。美国银行流动性危机愈演愈烈，对美国经济至关重要的通胀报告也将于今晚出炉。据道琼斯公司数据，经济学家预期，美国2月消费者物价指数（CPI）将同比上涨6%，较前值6.4%有所下降；环比来看，预计2月CPI月率为0.4%，前值为0.5%。剔除波动性较大的食品和能源价格后，市场预期2月核心CPI将同比上涨5.5%，仍远高于美联储2%的政策目标，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101700862.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8642475395bb363eacb86148917e7b","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101700862.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141601014","content_text":"经济学家预期，美国2月消费者物价指数（CPI）将同比上涨6%。美国银行流动性危机愈演愈烈，对美国经济至关重要的通胀报告也将于今晚出炉。据道琼斯公司数据，经济学家预期，美国2月消费者物价指数（CPI）将同比上涨6%，较前值6.4%有所下降；环比来看，预计2月CPI月率为0.4%，前值为0.5%。剔除波动性较大的食品和能源价格后，市场预期2月核心CPI将同比上涨5.5%，仍远高于美联储2%的政策目标，前值为5.6%，是2021年12月以来的最小涨幅；环比来看，经济学家预计2月核心CPI将环比上涨0.4%，与前值持平。惠誉评级对第一财经记者表示，虽然整体通胀看起来已经见顶，但核心通胀仍然居高不下，1月数据显示，服务业CPI同比涨幅依然高达7.2%，薪资压力的来源—劳动力市场失衡—没有改善，美联储更加担忧通胀将会根深蒂固，该机构预计，利率峰值为5.5%。“今年开年以来，就业市场强劲和名义工资增长使得家庭持续开支，进而推高通胀，不过疫情期间建立的超额储蓄已经显著减少，不大可能在今年三季度之后继续提供缓冲，届时美国也将步入衰退。”惠誉评级首席经济学家库尔顿（Brian Coulton）表示。3月不加息概率陡升在美国银行流动性危机发生之前，市场曾经预期，如果上述报告依旧火热将促使美联储加息50个基点。然而，8日至12日短短五日间，Silvergate银行、硅谷银行以及Signature银行接连倒闭，且事件正在引发连锁效应，华尔街也迅速调整预期。截至记者发稿，据利率观察工具（FedWatch Tool），3月22日美联储宣布不加息的概率陡升至31.4%，加息25个基点至4.75%～5.00%的概率为68.6%，交易员不再押注加息50个基点，要知道就在一天前，预期加息50个基点的概率高达40.2%。美联储3月不加息概率陡升（图源：芝商所官网）隔夜指数互换（Overnight Index Swap, OIS）最新定价显示，交易员押注联邦基金利率将在5月会议达到4.83%左右的峰值，到12月，则会有大约三次每次25个基点的降息。流动性危机浇灭华尔街加息预期蒙特利尔银行美国利率策略主管林根（Ian Lyngen）对第一财经记者表示：“如果议息会议发生于这两日，鉴于事态发展的速度和严峻程度，美联储很可能暂停加息，争取时间让局势稳定，并允许监管者和投资者重新评估事态和加息节奏。然而，距离利率决议日还有一周时间，且CPI报告尚未公布，如果联储官员仍然决意对抗通胀，那么坚持到底是最稳妥的做法。话虽如此，我们目前倾向于认为，三月稍作喘息以更好地了解银行传染风险，并在五月重启加息，是有好处的。”除了蒙特利尔银行，高盛同样支持本月暂停加息。该行在最新报告中表示，银行风波令美联储等监管机构意识到，加息政策对银行系统造成压力，因此预期美联储下周不会加息，但考虑到3月后经济前景仍存相当大不确定性，维持5月、6月和7月加息25个基点的预期不变，终端利率较此前预期下降25个基点至5.25%～5.5%。摩根大通则维持美联储下周加息25个基点的预测，该行首席美国经济学家费罗利（Michael Feroli）在一份报告中表示：“在硅谷银行出现问题之前，我们就认为50个基点的调整幅度是不明智的，我们仍然认为事实如此。”但他表示，下周加息的前提是银行系统运行平稳。 “我们密切关注政府支持是否足以平息市场担忧，如果成功救市，我认为美联储会希望继续收紧货币政策。”无论如何，美联储正深陷通胀高企和银行流动性危机两难境地。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
