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Don't worry (too much) about an October market crash

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2021 Global Market Outlook - Q4 Update: Growing Pains

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10:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't worry (too much) about an October market crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103782575","media":"CNN Business","summary":"New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously cras","content":"<p><b>New York (CNN Business)&nbsp;-&nbsp;</b>October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008.</p>\n<p>But&nbsp;the marketisn't always a terrifying place to be just before Halloween. In fact,stocks typically go up&nbsp;in October.</p>\n<p>According to data from Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, October is just about in the middle of the pack: It has been the 7th best month for the S&amp;P 500 since 1950 and the 4th best over the past 10 and 20 years.</p>\n<p>\"October is known for some spectacular crashes and many expect bad things to happen again this year,\" Detrick said in a report last week. \"But the truth is this month is simply misunderstood, as historically it is about an average month.\"</p>\n<p>And it could be better than average this October, because there are no potentially game-changing election results coming in November.</p>\n<p>Since 1999, the S&amp;P 500 has gained 3.6% in odd-year Octobers and fallen 1.1% in even-numbered ones, corresponding to the US election schedule.</p>\n<p>\"It turns out stocks don't like politics much,\" Detrick said.</p>\n<p><b>Many risks remain but outlook still promising for stocks</b></p>\n<p>Of course DC headlines could still roil the market this year, albeit not because of an election.</p>\n<p>The debt ceiling debate has yet to be resolved, and Congress still hasn't passed President Joe Biden's infrastructure and social spending plans. Meanwhile Biden also must soon decide whether he wants to nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed chairman or pick someone else.</p>\n<p>\"The fourth quarter — like the conclusion of sporting events or Broadway plays — is where the drama lies,\" Louis Navellier, chairman of Navellier &amp; Associates, said in a report last week.</p>\n<p>That said, Navellier is hopeful the usual seasonal tailwinds for the markets and the broader economy will lift stocks this year.</p>\n<p>Stocks tend to enjoy not just solid gains in October, but also for the remainder of the fourth quarter. Consumer spending surges during the holiday shopping season and businesses often look to boost investments before annual budgets run out.</p>\n<p>With that in mind, some strategists think that investors will continue to focus on the positive when looking ahead to earnings for Q4 and 2022.</p>\n<p>Yes, worries remain about Covid-19, Fed policy, inflation, global shipping delays and numerous other economic warning signs.</p>\n<p>But although this could create more volatility than usual in October and the rest of the fourth quarter, few expect that these challenges will lead to another recession. So the path of least resistance for stocks is still upward.</p>\n<p>\"Virtually all of these problems are showing tangible signs toward resolution,\" Robert Teeter, managing director at Silvercrest Asset Management, said in a report Monday, \"and should not inflict any long-term damage to stock valuations.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't worry (too much) about an October market crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't worry (too much) about an October market crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-06 10:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html><strong>CNN Business</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008.\nBut the marketisn't always a terrifying place to...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103782575","content_text":"New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008.\nBut the marketisn't always a terrifying place to be just before Halloween. In fact,stocks typically go up in October.\nAccording to data from Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, October is just about in the middle of the pack: It has been the 7th best month for the S&P 500 since 1950 and the 4th best over the past 10 and 20 years.\n\"October is known for some spectacular crashes and many expect bad things to happen again this year,\" Detrick said in a report last week. \"But the truth is this month is simply misunderstood, as historically it is about an average month.\"\nAnd it could be better than average this October, because there are no potentially game-changing election results coming in November.\nSince 1999, the S&P 500 has gained 3.6% in odd-year Octobers and fallen 1.1% in even-numbered ones, corresponding to the US election schedule.\n\"It turns out stocks don't like politics much,\" Detrick said.\nMany risks remain but outlook still promising for stocks\nOf course DC headlines could still roil the market this year, albeit not because of an election.\nThe debt ceiling debate has yet to be resolved, and Congress still hasn't passed President Joe Biden's infrastructure and social spending plans. Meanwhile Biden also must soon decide whether he wants to nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed chairman or pick someone else.\n\"The fourth quarter — like the conclusion of sporting events or Broadway plays — is where the drama lies,\" Louis Navellier, chairman of Navellier & Associates, said in a report last week.\nThat said, Navellier is hopeful the usual seasonal tailwinds for the markets and the broader economy will lift stocks this year.\nStocks tend to enjoy not just solid gains in October, but also for the remainder of the fourth quarter. Consumer spending surges during the holiday shopping season and businesses often look to boost investments before annual budgets run out.\nWith that in mind, some strategists think that investors will continue to focus on the positive when looking ahead to earnings for Q4 and 2022.\nYes, worries remain about Covid-19, Fed policy, inflation, global shipping delays and numerous other economic warning signs.\nBut although this could create more volatility than usual in October and the rest of the fourth quarter, few expect that these challenges will lead to another recession. So the path of least resistance for stocks is still upward.\n\"Virtually all of these problems are showing tangible signs toward resolution,\" Robert Teeter, managing director at Silvercrest Asset Management, said in a report Monday, \"and should not inflict any long-term damage to stock valuations.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":865253694,"gmtCreate":1632990877243,"gmtModify":1632990877517,"author":{"id":"3583974243419968","authorId":"3583974243419968","name":"klo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d3dcf83877ea1c1bf83a2ba2b540df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865253694","repostId":"1104172212","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104172212","pubTimestamp":1632965278,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104172212?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-30 09:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2021 Global Market Outlook - Q4 Update: Growing Pains","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104172212","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows.</li>\n <li>The reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor.</li>\n <li>The key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The COVID-19 delta variant, inflation and central bank tapering are unnerving investors. <b>We expect the pandemic-recovery trade to resume as inflation subsides, infection rates decline and tapering turns out to not equal tightening. Amid this backdrop, our outlook favors equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-U.S. stocks over U.S. stocks.</b></p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>The post-lockdown recovery has transitioned from energetic youthfulness to awkward adolescence. It’s still growing, although at a slower pace, and there are worries about what happens next, particularly about monetary policy and the outlook for inflation. Theinflation spikehas been larger than expected, but we still think it istransitory, caused by base effects from when the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) fell during the lockdown last year and by temporary supply bottlenecks. Inflation may remain high over the remainder of 2021 but should decline in early 2022. This means that even though the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to begin tapering back on asset purchases before the end of the year, rate hikes are unlikely before the second half of 2023.</p>\n<p>Another worry is thehighly contagious COVID-19 delta variant. The evidence so far is that vaccines are effective in preventing serious COVID-19 infections. Vaccination rates are accelerating globally, and emerging economies are catching up with developed markets. Infection rates appear to have peaked globally in early September. This means the reopening of economies should continue over the remainder of 2021. The onset of winter in the northern hemisphere will be a test, but the rollout of booster vaccination shots should help prevent widescale renewed lockdowns.</p>\n<p>The conclusions from our cycle, value and sentiment (CVS) investment decision-making process are broadly unchanged from our previous quarterly report. Global equities remain expensive, with the very expensive U.S. market offsetting better value elsewhere. Sentiment is slightly overbought, but not close to dangerous levels of euphoria. The strong cycle delivers a preference for equities over bonds for at least the next 12 months, despite expensive valuations. It also reinforces our preference for thevalue equity factor over the growth factorand for non-U.S. equities to outperform the U.S. market.</p>\n<p><b>Cycle still in recovery phase</b></p>\n<p>The post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows. Even so, we think the cycle is still in the recovery phase, although it is maturing. Despite strong growth, there is plenty of spare capacity. This can be seen in the employment-to-population ratio for prime-age workers in the United States. The chart below shows the ratio has recovered from the pandemic lows, but only to levels reached during the relatively mild recessions in the early 1990s and 2000s. We expect theU.S. labor-market recoveryshould still resemble a typical post-recession recovery over the next few quarters.</p>\n<p><b>U.S. EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO FOR PRIME-AGE WORKERS</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a91fe2991463e2285879c32cb1b8c7\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The U.S. recovery, however, is more advanced than that of other developed economies. The following chart shows how far GDP has recovered, relative to the pre-COVID-19 peak in 2019. GDP is 0.8% higher in the U.S., although this level is still short relative to the pre-COVID-19 trend. GDP is 2.5% below 2019 levels in the euro area and 4.5% below in the United Kingdom. We expect more cyclical upside for economic growth outside the U.S., and this should allow market leadership to rotate toward the rest of the world.</p>\n<p><b>GDP IN Q2 2021 RELATIVE TO PRE-COVID-19 PEAK IN 2019</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/577d1b96aef08b71c9bdb6665a21b2ac\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Two key indicators</b></p>\n<p>Last quarter, we listed two indicators that should offer a guide to the Fed’s expected reaction to the inflation spike.</p>\n<p>The first is five-year/five-year breakeven inflation expectations, based on the pricing of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). This is the market’s forecast for average inflation over five years in five years’ time. It tells us that investors expect inflation will average 2.17% in the five years from late 2026 to late 2031. The TIPS yields are based on the CPI, while the Fed targets inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator. The two move together over time, but CPI inflation is generally around 0.25% higher than PCE inflation. A breakeven rate of 2.75% would suggest the market sees PCE inflation above 2.5% in five years’ time. Market inflation expectations are currently comfortably below the Fed’s worry point.</p>\n<p><b>WATCHPOINT INDICATOR #1: U.S. 5-YEAR/5-YEAR BREAKEVEN INFLATION RATE</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13f3cf57b58f600fe6681e9015779e85\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The second indicator is the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker, and this has a less-comforting message about inflation risks. It reached 3.9% in August, which isclose to the 4% thresholdwhere we judge that the Fed will become concerned about the inflationary impact on the growth of wages. A breakdown shows that the spike has been mostly driven by wages for low-skilled, young people in the leisure and hospitality industry. This suggests the surge has been caused by temporary labor supply shortages and that wage pressures should subside as economic activity normalizes. This indicator, however, will be an important watchpoint over the next few months.</p>\n<p><b>WATCHPOINT INDICATOR #2: ATLANTA FED WAGE GROWTH TRACKER</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d3ff1ca26f6d29a28f919c65531c9a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Reopening trade still makes sense</b></p>\n<p>The reopening trade, which lifts long-term interest rates and favors cyclical and value stocks over technology and growth stocks, worked well for several months following the vaccine announcement last November. Value outperformed growth and yield curves steepened. The trade has reversed in recent months, however, amid fears that the delta variant might derail the economic recovery. The impact has been magnified by short covering in bond markets as investors, who have been short or underweight, have been forced by the rally to buy back into the market, pushing bond yields even lower.</p>\n<p>The reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor. Financial stocks comprise the largest sector in the MSCI World Value Index, and they should benefit from further yield-curve steepening, which boosts the profitability of banks. Long-term interest rates should rise as global growth remains above trend, delta-variant fears fade, the short squeeze unwinds and central banks begin tapering back on bond purchases.</p>\n<p>The rotation in economic growth leadership away from the United States should also help the reopening trade. The rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks relative to the U.S., which has a higher weight to technology stocks.</p>\n<p>Emerging market (EM) equities have been poor performers since the vaccine announcement, but there are some encouraging signs. Initially, they were held back by the exposure to technology stocks in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the slow rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. More recently, they have come under pressure from the slowdown in the Chinese economy and theregulatory crackdown on Chinese tech companies. The vaccine rollout across emerging markets has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon improve the growth outlook. The path of Chinese regulation is harder to predict, but it is now largely priced in, with Chinese technology companies underperforming their global peers by nearly 50% from February 2021 through mid-September.</p>\n<p>The resumption of the reopening trade should also result in U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has traded sideways since the vaccine announcement. It should weaken once investors have confidence that delta-variant risks are subsiding and realize that the Fed is likely to remain dovish as inflation risks decline. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. Dollar weakness should support the performance of non-U.S. markets, particularly emerging markets.</p>\n<p><b>Risks: variants, inflation, China weakness</b></p>\n<p>The key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter. The evidence so far is that vaccinations are highly effective in preventing serious illness. In Israel, booster shots appear to have slowed the rate of new cases.</p>\n<p>Another watchpoint is inflation and the response of central banks. Our expectation is that this year’s inflation spike is mostly transitory and that the major central banks, led by the Fed, are still two years from raising interest rates.</p>\n<p>Finally, there is the risk of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China.Credit growth has slowed this yearand the purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI) have trended lower. Monetary and fiscal policy have been eased, however, and senior officials have signaled that more stimulus is on the way. China policy direction and credit trends will be an important watchpoint over coming months.</p>\n<p><b>Regional snapshotsUnited States</b></p>\n<p>The U.S. economy is likely to sustain above-trend growth into 2022. However, the easiest gains appear in the rear-view mirror at the end of the third quarter as the recovery phase of the business cycle matures. This is most visible for corporate earnings, where S&amp;P 500® Index earnings-per-share already sit 20% above their previous cyclical high.</p>\n<p>Strong fundamentals have helped power the stock market to new highs. Early evidence that the delta-variant wave may be fading and the potential for greater vaccine access for children are positives for a more complete recovery in the quarters ahead. The Fedlooks poised to start tapering its asset purchasesaround the end of 2021. The timing of the first rate hike will then hinge on what happens to inflation next year. Our models suggest that inflation is likely to drop back below the Fed’s 2% target in 2022. If that is correct, the Fed is likely to remain on hold into the second half of 2023.</p>\n<p>Wage inflation is a key risk to this view. It is running unusually strong for this stage of the cycle, and record hiring intentions from businesses could exhaust spare capacity in the year ahead. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise moderately from 1.37% in mid-September to 1.75% in coming months.</p>\n<p>Fiscal stimulus negotiations continue to grab headlines in Washington, D.C. Thetax provisions in these billsare likely to be the most impactful for financial markets. We estimate thathigher corporate taxescould subtract about four percentage points from S&amp;P 500 earnings growth in 2022. This could create volatility and opportunity in markets. Given our strong cyclical outlook, our bias continues to be a<i>risk-on</i>preference for equities over bonds for the medium-term.</p>\n<p><b>Eurozone</b></p>\n<p>Euro area growthslowed through the third quarter but looks on track for a return to above-trend growth over the fourth quarter and into 2022. Vaccination rates are high, and the euro area has more catch-up potential than other major economies, particularly the United States. The euro area is also set to receive more fiscal support than other regions, with the European Union’s pandemic recovery fund only just starting to disburse stimulus, which will provide significant support in southern Europe. Polls in advance of Germany’s federal election on Sept. 26 suggested the electorate was moving toward the political left, which means the new government is likely to support expansionary fiscal policy and a continued dovish stance by the European Central Bank (ECB).</p>\n<p>The MSCI EMU Index, which reflects the European Economic and Monetary Union, has performed broadly in line with the S&amp;P 500 so far in 2021. We think it has potential to outperform in coming quarters. Europe’s exposure to financials and cyclically sensitive sectors such as industrials, materials and energy, and its relatively small exposure to technology, gives it the potential to outperform as delta-variant fears subside, economic activity picks up and yield curves in Europe steepen.</p>\n<p><b>United Kingdom</b></p>\n<p>As of mid-year, UK GDP was still nearly 4.5% below its pre-pandemic peak. We see plenty of scope for strong catch-up growth as borders are fully reopened and activity normalizes. Supply bottlenecks and labor shortages have triggered a sharp rise in underlying inflation and created concerns that the Bank of England (BoE) may start rate hikes in the first half of 2022. We think the BoE is unlikely to be that aggressive. We expect inflation to decline in early 2022 as supply constraints ease, which should convince the BoE to delay rate hikes.</p>\n<p>The FTSE 100 Index is the cheapest of the major developed equity markets in late 2021, and this should help it reflect higher returns than other markets over the next decade. Around 70% of UK corporate earnings come from offshore, so one near-term risk is that further strengthening of British sterling dampens earnings growth. The other risks are mostly around policy missteps, for example, early tightening by the Bank of England.</p>\n<p><b>Japan</b></p>\n<p>The Japanese economy is expected to get a shot in the arm as rising vaccination rates improve mobility and reduce the risk of further lockdowns, and as political leadership changes result in more fiscal stimulus: the Japanese election is due to be held before Nov. 28. Japanese equities look slightly more expensive than other regions such as the UK and Europe. We maintain our view that the Bank of Japan will significantly lag other central banks in normalizing policy.</p>\n<p><b>China</b></p>\n<p>We expect Chinese economic growth to berobust over the next 12 months, supported by a post-lockdown jump in consumer spending and incremental fiscal and monetary easing. Despite a big improvement in vaccination rates,COVID-19 outbreaks remain a riskgiven the Chinese government’s zero-tolerance approach. The major consumer technology companies have seen significant drops in stock prices recently due to more aggressive regulation. Some uncertainty remains around thepath of future regulation, especially as it relates to technology companies, and as a result we expect investors will remain cautious on Chinese equities in the coming months. The property market, particularly property developers as recently highlighted by Evergrande’s debt crisis, remains a risk that we are monitoring closely.</p>\n<p><b>Canada</b></p>\n<p>Canada leads the G71countries in terms of the vaccination rollout, which should minimize the risk of large-scale lockdowns over winter. The delta variant has taken an economic toll, however, with industry consensus projections now predicting 5% GDP growth in 2021 versus estimates of more than 6% just three months ago. Even so, growth remains above-trend and the odds of additional fiscal expenditures to support the economy have increased. This means that weaker growth due to COVID-19 is unlikely to change the Bank of Canada's (BoC) tightening bias.</p>\n<p>Tapering of asset purchasesshould be complete by the end of the first quarter of 2022. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has indicated that the reinvestment phase of the bonds held by the central bank will commence once quantitative easing has ended. This should generate an estimated C$1 billion in weekly bond purchases, down from the current pace of C$2 billion. The BoC will likely only consider shrinking its balance sheet after it has started lifting interest rates. The BoC projects that the output gap will close sometime over the second half of 2022, and that rate hikes will be considered after economic slack has disappeared. We believe that the timeline may be a tad aggressive, and a delay to 2023 for liftoff is more likely. This would better align the Canadian central bank with its American counterpart.</p>\n<p><b>Australia/New Zealand</b></p>\n<p>The Australian economy is set to return to life, with lockdowns likely to be eased in October and November. Consumer and business balance sheets continue to look healthy, which should facilitate a strong recovery. The reopening of the international border in 2022 will provide a further boost. Fiscal policy has supported the economy through the downturn, and there is potential for further stimulus in the lead-up to the federal election, which is due before the end of 2022. The Reserve Bank of Australia has begun the process of tapering its bond-purchase program, but we expect that a rise in the cash rate is unlikely until at least the second half of 2023.</p>\n<p>New Zealand’s most recent lockdown will drag on Q3 GDP, but similar to Australia, we expect a solid rebound as the economy reopens. The government aims to provide a vaccine to all adults by the end of 2021, after which borders will gradually reopen. This will provide a boost, particularly to tourism-exposed sectors. Despite having recently put off hiking interest rates due to the recent lockdown, we expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will start raising rates this year. Even though they have significantly underperformed global equities this year, New Zealand equities still screen as relatively expensive compared to other regions.</p>\n<p><b>Asset-class preferences</b></p>\n<p>Our cycle, value and sentiment investment decision-making process in late September 2021 has a moderately positive medium-term view on global equities. Value is expensive across most markets except for UK equities, which are near fair value. The cycle is risk-asset supportive for the medium-term. The major economies still have spare capacity and inflation pressures appear transitory, caused by COVID-19-related supply shortages. Rate hikes by the U.S. Fed seem unlikely before the second half of 2023. Sentiment, after reaching overbought levels earlier in the year, has returned to more neutral levels.</p>\n<p><b>COMPOSITE CONTRARIAN INDICATOR: SENTIMENT SHIFTS TOWARD NEUTRAL</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c527955abbc9e770d200c1d709f80d8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<ul>\n <li>We prefer<b>non-U.S. equities</b>to U.S. equities. Stronger economic growth and steeper yield curves after the third-quarter slowdown should favor undervalued cyclical value stocks over expensive technology and growth stocks. Relative to the U.S., the rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks.</li>\n <li><b>Emerging markets equities</b>have been relatively poor performers this year, but there are some encouraging signs. The vaccine rollout across EM has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon boost the economic growth outlook.China’s regulatory crackdownhas caused significant underperformance by Chinese technology companies, but this should be less of a headwind going forward now that it is priced in.</li>\n <li><b>High yield</b>and<b>investment grade credit</b>are expensive on a spread basis but have support from a positive cycle view that accommodates corporate profit growth and keeps default rates low. U.S. dollar-denominated<b>emerging markets debt</b>is close to fair value in spread terms and will gain support on U.S. dollar weakness.</li>\n <li><b>Government bonds</b>are expensive, and yields should come under upward pressure as output gaps close and central banks look to taper back asset purchases. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise toward 1.75% in coming months.</li>\n <li><b>Real assets</b>: Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have significantly outperformed Global Listed Infrastructure (GLI) so far this year, to the extent that REITS are now expensive relative to GLI. Both should benefit from the pandemic recovery, but GLI has some catch-up potential. GLI should benefit from the global re-opening boosting domestic and international travel.<b>Commodities</b>have been the best-performing asset class this year amid strong demand and supply bottlenecks. The gains have been led by industrial metals and energy. The pace of increase should ease as supply issues are resolved, butcommodities should retain supportfrom above-trend global demand.</li>\n <li>The<b>U.S. dollar</b>has been supported this year by expectations for early Fed tightening and U.S. economic growth leadership. It should weaken as global growth leadership rotates away from the U.S. and toward Europe and other developed economies. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. The main beneficiary is likely to be the<b>euro</b>, which is still undervalued. We also believe<b>British sterling</b>and the economically sensitive<i>commodity currencies</i>—the<b>Australian dollar</b>, the<b>New Zealand dollar</b>and the<b>Canadian dollar</b>—can make further gains, although these currencies are not undervalued from a longer-term perspective.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>ASSET PERFORMANCE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2021</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e253becd38bd122d9fc211e7b0f583\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>1The Group of Seven is an inter-governmental political forum consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.</p>\n<p><b>Important Information</b></p>\n<p>The views in this Global Market Outlook report are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and are current as of September 27, 2021. While all material is deemed to be reliable, accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.</p>\n<p>Please remember that all investments carry some level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. They do not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns.</p>\n<p>Keep in mind that, like all investing, multi-asset investing does not assure a profit or protect against loss.</p>\n<p>No model or group of models can offer a precise estimate of future returns available from capital markets. We remain cautious that rational analytical techniques cannot predict extremes in financial behavior, such as periods of financial euphoria or investor panic. Our models rest on the assumptions of normal and rational financial behavior. Forecasting models are inherently uncertain, subject to change at any time based on a variety of factors and can be inaccurate. Russell believes that the utility of this information is highest in evaluating the relative relationships of various components of a globally diversified portfolio. As such, the models may offer insights into the prudence of over or under weighting those components from time to time or under periods of extreme dislocation. The models are explicitly not intended as market timing signals.</p>\n<p>Forecasting represents predictions of market prices and/or volume patterns utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment.</p>\n<p>Investment in global, international or emerging markets may be significantly affected by political or economic conditions and regulatory requirements in a particular country. Investments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation. Such securities may be less liquid and more volatile. Investments in emerging or developing markets involve exposure to economic structures that are generally less diverse and mature, and political systems with less stability than in more developed countries.</p>\n<p>Currency investing involves risks including fluctuations in currency values, whether the home currency or the foreign currency. They can either enhance or reduce the returns associated with foreign investments.</p>\n<p>Investments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation.</p>\n<p>Bond investors should carefully consider risks such as interest rate, credit, default and duration risks. Greater risk, such as increased volatility, limited liquidity, prepayment, non-payment and increased default risk, is inherent in portfolios that invest in high yield (“junk”) bonds or mortgage-backed securities, especially mortgage-backed securities with exposure to sub-prime mortgages. Generally, when interest rates rise, prices of fixed income securities fall. Interest rates in the United States are at, or near, historic lows, which may increase a Fund’s exposure to risks associated with rising rates. Investment in non-U.S. and emerging market securities is subject to the risk of currency fluctuations and to economic and political risks associated with such foreign countries.</p>\n<p>Performance quoted represents past performance and should not be viewed as a guarantee of future results.</p>\n<p>The FTSE 100 Index is a market-capitalization weighted index of UK-listed blue chip companies.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500® Index, or the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500, is a stock market index based on the market capitalizations of 500 large companies having common stock listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ.</p>\n<p>The MSCI EMU Index (European Economic and Monetary Union) captures large and mid cap representation across the 10 developed markets countries in the EMU. With 246 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization of the EMU.</p>\n<p>Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.</p>\n<p>Copyright © Russell Investments 2021. All rights reserved. This material is proprietary and may not be reproduced, transferred, or distributed in any form without prior written permission from Russell Investments. It is delivered on an “as is” basis without warranty.</p>\n<p>Frank Russell Company is the owner of the Russell trademarks contained in this material and all trademark rights related to the Russell trademarks, which the members of the Russell Investments group of companies are permitted to use under license from Frank Russell Company. The members of the Russell Investments group of companies are not affiliated in any manner with Frank Russell Company or any entity operating under the “FTSE RUSSELL” brand.</p>\n<p>Products and services described on this website are intended for<b>United States residents only</b>. Nothing contained in this material is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. The general information contained on this website should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional. Persons outside the United States may find more information about products and services available within their jurisdictions by going to Russell Investments' Worldwide site.</p>\n<p>Russell Investments is committed to ensuring digital accessibility for people with disabilities. We are continually improving the user experience for everyone, and applying the relevant accessibility standards.</p>\n<p>Russell Investments' ownership is composed of a majority stake held by funds managed by TA Associates, with a significant minority stake held by funds managed by Reverence Capital Partners. Russell Investments' employees and Hamilton Lane Advisors, LLC also hold minority, non-controlling, ownership stakes.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2021 Global Market Outlook - Q4 Update: Growing Pains</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2021 Global Market Outlook - Q4 Update: Growing Pains\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-30 09:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457651-2021-global-market-outlook-q4-update-growing-pains><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows.\nThe reopening trade should resume in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457651-2021-global-market-outlook-q4-update-growing-pains\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457651-2021-global-market-outlook-q4-update-growing-pains","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104172212","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows.\nThe reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor.\nThe key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter.\n\nThe COVID-19 delta variant, inflation and central bank tapering are unnerving investors. We expect the pandemic-recovery trade to resume as inflation subsides, infection rates decline and tapering turns out to not equal tightening. Amid this backdrop, our outlook favors equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-U.S. stocks over U.S. stocks.\nIntroduction\nThe post-lockdown recovery has transitioned from energetic youthfulness to awkward adolescence. It’s still growing, although at a slower pace, and there are worries about what happens next, particularly about monetary policy and the outlook for inflation. Theinflation spikehas been larger than expected, but we still think it istransitory, caused by base effects from when the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) fell during the lockdown last year and by temporary supply bottlenecks. Inflation may remain high over the remainder of 2021 but should decline in early 2022. This means that even though the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to begin tapering back on asset purchases before the end of the year, rate hikes are unlikely before the second half of 2023.\nAnother worry is thehighly contagious COVID-19 delta variant. The evidence so far is that vaccines are effective in preventing serious COVID-19 infections. Vaccination rates are accelerating globally, and emerging economies are catching up with developed markets. Infection rates appear to have peaked globally in early September. This means the reopening of economies should continue over the remainder of 2021. The onset of winter in the northern hemisphere will be a test, but the rollout of booster vaccination shots should help prevent widescale renewed lockdowns.\nThe conclusions from our cycle, value and sentiment (CVS) investment decision-making process are broadly unchanged from our previous quarterly report. Global equities remain expensive, with the very expensive U.S. market offsetting better value elsewhere. Sentiment is slightly overbought, but not close to dangerous levels of euphoria. The strong cycle delivers a preference for equities over bonds for at least the next 12 months, despite expensive valuations. It also reinforces our preference for thevalue equity factor over the growth factorand for non-U.S. equities to outperform the U.S. market.\nCycle still in recovery phase\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows. Even so, we think the cycle is still in the recovery phase, although it is maturing. Despite strong growth, there is plenty of spare capacity. This can be seen in the employment-to-population ratio for prime-age workers in the United States. The chart below shows the ratio has recovered from the pandemic lows, but only to levels reached during the relatively mild recessions in the early 1990s and 2000s. We expect theU.S. labor-market recoveryshould still resemble a typical post-recession recovery over the next few quarters.\nU.S. EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO FOR PRIME-AGE WORKERS\n\nThe U.S. recovery, however, is more advanced than that of other developed economies. The following chart shows how far GDP has recovered, relative to the pre-COVID-19 peak in 2019. GDP is 0.8% higher in the U.S., although this level is still short relative to the pre-COVID-19 trend. GDP is 2.5% below 2019 levels in the euro area and 4.5% below in the United Kingdom. We expect more cyclical upside for economic growth outside the U.S., and this should allow market leadership to rotate toward the rest of the world.\nGDP IN Q2 2021 RELATIVE TO PRE-COVID-19 PEAK IN 2019\n\nTwo key indicators\nLast quarter, we listed two indicators that should offer a guide to the Fed’s expected reaction to the inflation spike.\nThe first is five-year/five-year breakeven inflation expectations, based on the pricing of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). This is the market’s forecast for average inflation over five years in five years’ time. It tells us that investors expect inflation will average 2.17% in the five years from late 2026 to late 2031. The TIPS yields are based on the CPI, while the Fed targets inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator. The two move together over time, but CPI inflation is generally around 0.25% higher than PCE inflation. A breakeven rate of 2.75% would suggest the market sees PCE inflation above 2.5% in five years’ time. Market inflation expectations are currently comfortably below the Fed’s worry point.\nWATCHPOINT INDICATOR #1: U.S. 5-YEAR/5-YEAR BREAKEVEN INFLATION RATE\n\nThe second indicator is the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker, and this has a less-comforting message about inflation risks. It reached 3.9% in August, which isclose to the 4% thresholdwhere we judge that the Fed will become concerned about the inflationary impact on the growth of wages. A breakdown shows that the spike has been mostly driven by wages for low-skilled, young people in the leisure and hospitality industry. This suggests the surge has been caused by temporary labor supply shortages and that wage pressures should subside as economic activity normalizes. This indicator, however, will be an important watchpoint over the next few months.\nWATCHPOINT INDICATOR #2: ATLANTA FED WAGE GROWTH TRACKER\n\nReopening trade still makes sense\nThe reopening trade, which lifts long-term interest rates and favors cyclical and value stocks over technology and growth stocks, worked well for several months following the vaccine announcement last November. Value outperformed growth and yield curves steepened. The trade has reversed in recent months, however, amid fears that the delta variant might derail the economic recovery. The impact has been magnified by short covering in bond markets as investors, who have been short or underweight, have been forced by the rally to buy back into the market, pushing bond yields even lower.\nThe reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor. Financial stocks comprise the largest sector in the MSCI World Value Index, and they should benefit from further yield-curve steepening, which boosts the profitability of banks. Long-term interest rates should rise as global growth remains above trend, delta-variant fears fade, the short squeeze unwinds and central banks begin tapering back on bond purchases.\nThe rotation in economic growth leadership away from the United States should also help the reopening trade. The rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks relative to the U.S., which has a higher weight to technology stocks.\nEmerging market (EM) equities have been poor performers since the vaccine announcement, but there are some encouraging signs. Initially, they were held back by the exposure to technology stocks in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the slow rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. More recently, they have come under pressure from the slowdown in the Chinese economy and theregulatory crackdown on Chinese tech companies. The vaccine rollout across emerging markets has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon improve the growth outlook. The path of Chinese regulation is harder to predict, but it is now largely priced in, with Chinese technology companies underperforming their global peers by nearly 50% from February 2021 through mid-September.\nThe resumption of the reopening trade should also result in U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has traded sideways since the vaccine announcement. It should weaken once investors have confidence that delta-variant risks are subsiding and realize that the Fed is likely to remain dovish as inflation risks decline. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. Dollar weakness should support the performance of non-U.S. markets, particularly emerging markets.\nRisks: variants, inflation, China weakness\nThe key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter. The evidence so far is that vaccinations are highly effective in preventing serious illness. In Israel, booster shots appear to have slowed the rate of new cases.\nAnother watchpoint is inflation and the response of central banks. Our expectation is that this year’s inflation spike is mostly transitory and that the major central banks, led by the Fed, are still two years from raising interest rates.\nFinally, there is the risk of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China.Credit growth has slowed this yearand the purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI) have trended lower. Monetary and fiscal policy have been eased, however, and senior officials have signaled that more stimulus is on the way. China policy direction and credit trends will be an important watchpoint over coming months.\nRegional snapshotsUnited States\nThe U.S. economy is likely to sustain above-trend growth into 2022. However, the easiest gains appear in the rear-view mirror at the end of the third quarter as the recovery phase of the business cycle matures. This is most visible for corporate earnings, where S&P 500® Index earnings-per-share already sit 20% above their previous cyclical high.\nStrong fundamentals have helped power the stock market to new highs. Early evidence that the delta-variant wave may be fading and the potential for greater vaccine access for children are positives for a more complete recovery in the quarters ahead. The Fedlooks poised to start tapering its asset purchasesaround the end of 2021. The timing of the first rate hike will then hinge on what happens to inflation next year. Our models suggest that inflation is likely to drop back below the Fed’s 2% target in 2022. If that is correct, the Fed is likely to remain on hold into the second half of 2023.\nWage inflation is a key risk to this view. It is running unusually strong for this stage of the cycle, and record hiring intentions from businesses could exhaust spare capacity in the year ahead. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise moderately from 1.37% in mid-September to 1.75% in coming months.\nFiscal stimulus negotiations continue to grab headlines in Washington, D.C. Thetax provisions in these billsare likely to be the most impactful for financial markets. We estimate thathigher corporate taxescould subtract about four percentage points from S&P 500 earnings growth in 2022. This could create volatility and opportunity in markets. Given our strong cyclical outlook, our bias continues to be arisk-onpreference for equities over bonds for the medium-term.\nEurozone\nEuro area growthslowed through the third quarter but looks on track for a return to above-trend growth over the fourth quarter and into 2022. Vaccination rates are high, and the euro area has more catch-up potential than other major economies, particularly the United States. The euro area is also set to receive more fiscal support than other regions, with the European Union’s pandemic recovery fund only just starting to disburse stimulus, which will provide significant support in southern Europe. Polls in advance of Germany’s federal election on Sept. 26 suggested the electorate was moving toward the political left, which means the new government is likely to support expansionary fiscal policy and a continued dovish stance by the European Central Bank (ECB).\nThe MSCI EMU Index, which reflects the European Economic and Monetary Union, has performed broadly in line with the S&P 500 so far in 2021. We think it has potential to outperform in coming quarters. Europe’s exposure to financials and cyclically sensitive sectors such as industrials, materials and energy, and its relatively small exposure to technology, gives it the potential to outperform as delta-variant fears subside, economic activity picks up and yield curves in Europe steepen.\nUnited Kingdom\nAs of mid-year, UK GDP was still nearly 4.5% below its pre-pandemic peak. We see plenty of scope for strong catch-up growth as borders are fully reopened and activity normalizes. Supply bottlenecks and labor shortages have triggered a sharp rise in underlying inflation and created concerns that the Bank of England (BoE) may start rate hikes in the first half of 2022. We think the BoE is unlikely to be that aggressive. We expect inflation to decline in early 2022 as supply constraints ease, which should convince the BoE to delay rate hikes.\nThe FTSE 100 Index is the cheapest of the major developed equity markets in late 2021, and this should help it reflect higher returns than other markets over the next decade. Around 70% of UK corporate earnings come from offshore, so one near-term risk is that further strengthening of British sterling dampens earnings growth. The other risks are mostly around policy missteps, for example, early tightening by the Bank of England.\nJapan\nThe Japanese economy is expected to get a shot in the arm as rising vaccination rates improve mobility and reduce the risk of further lockdowns, and as political leadership changes result in more fiscal stimulus: the Japanese election is due to be held before Nov. 28. Japanese equities look slightly more expensive than other regions such as the UK and Europe. We maintain our view that the Bank of Japan will significantly lag other central banks in normalizing policy.\nChina\nWe expect Chinese economic growth to berobust over the next 12 months, supported by a post-lockdown jump in consumer spending and incremental fiscal and monetary easing. Despite a big improvement in vaccination rates,COVID-19 outbreaks remain a riskgiven the Chinese government’s zero-tolerance approach. The major consumer technology companies have seen significant drops in stock prices recently due to more aggressive regulation. Some uncertainty remains around thepath of future regulation, especially as it relates to technology companies, and as a result we expect investors will remain cautious on Chinese equities in the coming months. The property market, particularly property developers as recently highlighted by Evergrande’s debt crisis, remains a risk that we are monitoring closely.\nCanada\nCanada leads the G71countries in terms of the vaccination rollout, which should minimize the risk of large-scale lockdowns over winter. The delta variant has taken an economic toll, however, with industry consensus projections now predicting 5% GDP growth in 2021 versus estimates of more than 6% just three months ago. Even so, growth remains above-trend and the odds of additional fiscal expenditures to support the economy have increased. This means that weaker growth due to COVID-19 is unlikely to change the Bank of Canada's (BoC) tightening bias.\nTapering of asset purchasesshould be complete by the end of the first quarter of 2022. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has indicated that the reinvestment phase of the bonds held by the central bank will commence once quantitative easing has ended. This should generate an estimated C$1 billion in weekly bond purchases, down from the current pace of C$2 billion. The BoC will likely only consider shrinking its balance sheet after it has started lifting interest rates. The BoC projects that the output gap will close sometime over the second half of 2022, and that rate hikes will be considered after economic slack has disappeared. We believe that the timeline may be a tad aggressive, and a delay to 2023 for liftoff is more likely. This would better align the Canadian central bank with its American counterpart.\nAustralia/New Zealand\nThe Australian economy is set to return to life, with lockdowns likely to be eased in October and November. Consumer and business balance sheets continue to look healthy, which should facilitate a strong recovery. The reopening of the international border in 2022 will provide a further boost. Fiscal policy has supported the economy through the downturn, and there is potential for further stimulus in the lead-up to the federal election, which is due before the end of 2022. The Reserve Bank of Australia has begun the process of tapering its bond-purchase program, but we expect that a rise in the cash rate is unlikely until at least the second half of 2023.\nNew Zealand’s most recent lockdown will drag on Q3 GDP, but similar to Australia, we expect a solid rebound as the economy reopens. The government aims to provide a vaccine to all adults by the end of 2021, after which borders will gradually reopen. This will provide a boost, particularly to tourism-exposed sectors. Despite having recently put off hiking interest rates due to the recent lockdown, we expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will start raising rates this year. Even though they have significantly underperformed global equities this year, New Zealand equities still screen as relatively expensive compared to other regions.\nAsset-class preferences\nOur cycle, value and sentiment investment decision-making process in late September 2021 has a moderately positive medium-term view on global equities. Value is expensive across most markets except for UK equities, which are near fair value. The cycle is risk-asset supportive for the medium-term. The major economies still have spare capacity and inflation pressures appear transitory, caused by COVID-19-related supply shortages. Rate hikes by the U.S. Fed seem unlikely before the second half of 2023. Sentiment, after reaching overbought levels earlier in the year, has returned to more neutral levels.\nCOMPOSITE CONTRARIAN INDICATOR: SENTIMENT SHIFTS TOWARD NEUTRAL\n\n\nWe prefernon-U.S. equitiesto U.S. equities. Stronger economic growth and steeper yield curves after the third-quarter slowdown should favor undervalued cyclical value stocks over expensive technology and growth stocks. Relative to the U.S., the rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks.\nEmerging markets equitieshave been relatively poor performers this year, but there are some encouraging signs. The vaccine rollout across EM has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon boost the economic growth outlook.China’s regulatory crackdownhas caused significant underperformance by Chinese technology companies, but this should be less of a headwind going forward now that it is priced in.\nHigh yieldandinvestment grade creditare expensive on a spread basis but have support from a positive cycle view that accommodates corporate profit growth and keeps default rates low. U.S. dollar-denominatedemerging markets debtis close to fair value in spread terms and will gain support on U.S. dollar weakness.\nGovernment bondsare expensive, and yields should come under upward pressure as output gaps close and central banks look to taper back asset purchases. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise toward 1.75% in coming months.\nReal assets: Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have significantly outperformed Global Listed Infrastructure (GLI) so far this year, to the extent that REITS are now expensive relative to GLI. Both should benefit from the pandemic recovery, but GLI has some catch-up potential. GLI should benefit from the global re-opening boosting domestic and international travel.Commoditieshave been the best-performing asset class this year amid strong demand and supply bottlenecks. The gains have been led by industrial metals and energy. The pace of increase should ease as supply issues are resolved, butcommodities should retain supportfrom above-trend global demand.\nTheU.S. dollarhas been supported this year by expectations for early Fed tightening and U.S. economic growth leadership. It should weaken as global growth leadership rotates away from the U.S. and toward Europe and other developed economies. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. The main beneficiary is likely to be theeuro, which is still undervalued. We also believeBritish sterlingand the economically sensitivecommodity currencies—theAustralian dollar, theNew Zealand dollarand theCanadian dollar—can make further gains, although these currencies are not undervalued from a longer-term perspective.\n\nASSET PERFORMANCE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2021\n\n1The Group of Seven is an inter-governmental political forum consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.\nImportant Information\nThe views in this Global Market Outlook report are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and are current as of September 27, 2021. While all material is deemed to be reliable, accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.\nPlease remember that all investments carry some level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. They do not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns.\nKeep in mind that, like all investing, multi-asset investing does not assure a profit or protect against loss.\nNo model or group of models can offer a precise estimate of future returns available from capital markets. We remain cautious that rational analytical techniques cannot predict extremes in financial behavior, such as periods of financial euphoria or investor panic. Our models rest on the assumptions of normal and rational financial behavior. Forecasting models are inherently uncertain, subject to change at any time based on a variety of factors and can be inaccurate. Russell believes that the utility of this information is highest in evaluating the relative relationships of various components of a globally diversified portfolio. As such, the models may offer insights into the prudence of over or under weighting those components from time to time or under periods of extreme dislocation. The models are explicitly not intended as market timing signals.\nForecasting represents predictions of market prices and/or volume patterns utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment.\nInvestment in global, international or emerging markets may be significantly affected by political or economic conditions and regulatory requirements in a particular country. Investments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation. Such securities may be less liquid and more volatile. Investments in emerging or developing markets involve exposure to economic structures that are generally less diverse and mature, and political systems with less stability than in more developed countries.\nCurrency investing involves risks including fluctuations in currency values, whether the home currency or the foreign currency. They can either enhance or reduce the returns associated with foreign investments.\nInvestments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation.\nBond investors should carefully consider risks such as interest rate, credit, default and duration risks. Greater risk, such as increased volatility, limited liquidity, prepayment, non-payment and increased default risk, is inherent in portfolios that invest in high yield (“junk”) bonds or mortgage-backed securities, especially mortgage-backed securities with exposure to sub-prime mortgages. Generally, when interest rates rise, prices of fixed income securities fall. Interest rates in the United States are at, or near, historic lows, which may increase a Fund’s exposure to risks associated with rising rates. Investment in non-U.S. and emerging market securities is subject to the risk of currency fluctuations and to economic and political risks associated with such foreign countries.\nPerformance quoted represents past performance and should not be viewed as a guarantee of future results.\nThe FTSE 100 Index is a market-capitalization weighted index of UK-listed blue chip companies.\nThe S&P 500® Index, or the Standard & Poor’s 500, is a stock market index based on the market capitalizations of 500 large companies having common stock listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ.\nThe MSCI EMU Index (European Economic and Monetary Union) captures large and mid cap representation across the 10 developed markets countries in the EMU. With 246 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization of the EMU.\nIndexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.\nCopyright © Russell Investments 2021. All rights reserved. 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Russell Investments' employees and Hamilton Lane Advisors, LLC also hold minority, non-controlling, ownership stakes.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":510,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862819411,"gmtCreate":1632868177453,"gmtModify":1632868177587,"author":{"id":"3583974243419968","authorId":"3583974243419968","name":"klo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d3dcf83877ea1c1bf83a2ba2b540df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"J","listText":"J","text":"J","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862819411","repostId":"1112583450","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112583450","pubTimestamp":1632842868,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112583450?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 23:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Electronic Arts: Strong Fundamentals Continue Amid Dip Buying Opportunity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112583450","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nElectronic Arts Fiscal Q1 results were solid compared to a strong 2020 period.\nEA recently ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Electronic Arts Fiscal Q1 results were solid compared to a strong 2020 period.</li>\n <li>EA recently delayed its big fall release Battlefield 2042, but the move provides a strong buying opportunity.</li>\n <li>EA has strengthened its mobile gaming talent over the past year and has a stronger pipeline for mobile revenue than ever.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc8344f36d2d49a7e957c065340be2cb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Electronic Arts (EA) is a household name with great fundamentals. 70%+ long-term margins and stable revenue streams have led to strong shareholder returns over time. The stock has underperformed since mid-2018 but now the gaming companies are being priced near value stock levels. They have recently had a significant dip in the stock price, due to the&nbsp;delay of their big release of the year, Battlefield 2042 to November 19th. This is giving a great entry point into EA stock, with most of those sales still able to be captured with a later release date. EA has a great technical setup with the stock pushing near its all-time high of $148.97 several times in 2021 since first reaching the level in mid-2018. As you can see below, revenue has increased significantly to 5.7B in the past year, with 2022 GAAP revenue guidance at $6.8 Billion, yet the stock is still consolidating since mid-2018. This gives potential for an outsized move upwards when those highs are broken. Higher lows have been encouraging and this may be the last significant 15%+ dip before breaking out to all-time highs.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7506972cadc0be0701c77d20ad10d4ff\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"447\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Great Fiscal Q1</b></p>\n<p>Electronic Arts had a strong&nbsp;Fiscal Q1, even with comparison to a very strong 2020 period. Net bookings which are the most accurate indicator of business performance were up 3% over the prior year to $6.136 Billion USD. Guidance for 2022 was to $7.4 Billion in billings - or 20.6% growth. Revenue follows billings so we will see Revenue and earnings flow through next year from the strong results of late. The sports franchises of Madden, NHL, and especially FIFA continue to lead the way for EA with consistent performance. The sports franchises had a combined 140 million players in the past year, with over 31 million playing the newest FIFA 2021 iteration. Sports are predictable and popular games, something that adds stability to revenue and earnings over time. FUT matches are still growing at a strong pace with 48% growth over last year in Q1. Battlefield's delay may hurt the billings number as some sales will be lost to competitors such as Call of Duty Vanguard from Activision Blizzard (ATVI). However, game delays in recent years have not negatively impacted sales much for those titles. These delays due to tough deadlines are very commonplace in the industry and I believe the negative reaction in EA stock on a one-month delay is overdone. All the while, Apex Legends has seen a resurgence with many players going back to the game and it proved to be a more lasting title than many had expected. The game actually had the most players ever in the recent season, impressive for a game that has been out for several years now.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63da6c1ee87d6951184b6ba11ea0ab01\" tg-width=\"382\" tg-height=\"421\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>As you can see above, the fiscal year billings growth has been lumpy but overall, I expect high single digits to low double digits growth over time. The increase to FY 2021 was at least partially due to the coronavirus, although the environment continues to be very supportive there. Restrictions on travel and other entertainment worldwide continue to be a significant tailwind on gaming hours played. Live services which include microtransactions and game passes continue to become a larger part of EA's business. FIFA's success is a big portion of this, and EA announces 4 seasons for Battlefield 2042 per year with passes to purchase. This should give a solid income stream for the years after the game's release. The announced Battlefield Portal allowing people to create new maps using old releases seems great to foster engagement in paid season passes. The new Hazard Zone mode adds additional content as well with an Escape from Tarkov-like squad survival scenario. One thing is clear - EA put more effort into Battlefield 2042 and keeping it interesting for 2+ years than the past few series titles. EA confirmed it would be an every other year release, with things like Battlefield Portal likely working with multiple releases. These, plus the new mobile Battlefield game that's to come, make me more bullish for the future to take some share from Call of Duty. Some investors may be worried about the $7.4 Billion billings number for Fiscal 2022 with the game delay, but matching that bar should give the stock a very significant boost over the next 12 months.</p>\n<p>The company does also have a significant share buyback program which is helping to support the stock during any dips. EA bought back 976 million in stock over the past year - just under 3% of the total market cap of 36 Billion US. Expect more significant buyback activity in the coming weeks with the stock having dipped again due to the Battlefield 2042 delay. EA also pays a small dividend at 17 cents per quarter. While this is a yield of around 0.5%, it can grow significantly over time and shows the ongoing commitment to shareholders by the management team.</p>\n<p><b>Continued Growth in Mobile</b></p>\n<p>EA has continued to try to catch up to its competition like Activision Blizzard in the mobile area. EA had already purchased Glu Mobile earlier this year to expand their growing stable of casual mobile games. Now, EA recently completed the&nbsp;purchase of Playdemic&nbsp;for 1.4 Billion, the makers of golf clash. According to Sensor Tower, during the strong pandemic period,Golf Clash did an impressive $132.8 million USD of revenue. 10x sales is a reasonable price to pay for a game that has a very strong and growing userbase and a talented team behind it. EA is thinking long term with Playdemic likely to work on other IP from EA's stable in the coming years. They hinted on the conference call at a global Madden or FIFA mobile game where they have the license already - a tantalizing thought for investors. Mobile is growing for EA with 16% growth over 2019 levels in 2021, but they continue to invest heavily in this area. Casual games have a very long tail and are among the most profitable due to the lower operating expenses associated with the game creation. EA has also announced they are making a mobile game for the popular Apex Legends Battle Royale game, as well as the beforementioned one for Battlefield. This is likely after having seen Activision succeed with its mobile Call of Duty game, and the fact they haven't monetized many franchises in mobile yet. This is a chance for EA to really grow mobile as a portion of the business, with it only representing 13.5% of bookings over the last year. However, the growth rate for mobile will accelerate with it at 20% in Fiscal Q1 and likely to provide a big boost in coming years.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>The recent dip is an excellent buying opportunity for those that don't own any EA stock. The stock has been pushing against its all-time high level near 150, and when it breaks through to the upside should see significant gains. It is trading at a very inexpensive 16x Forward P/E - giving it near value stock status in the current market. Any additional lockdowns or restrictions would be bullish for EA as well, as many young people continue to spend heavily on gaming. EA has set itself up well for the long term, by focusing on their weakness in the mobile category with acquisitions and use of existing IP. Mobile is an area where EA has significantly lagged its major competition, but the moves made in 2021 will pay big dividends in future years - with shareholders likely to benefit.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Electronic Arts: Strong Fundamentals Continue Amid Dip Buying Opportunity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nElectronic Arts: Strong Fundamentals Continue Amid Dip Buying Opportunity\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-28 23:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457473-electronic-arts-strong-fundamentals-continue-amid-dip-buying-opportunity><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nElectronic Arts Fiscal Q1 results were solid compared to a strong 2020 period.\nEA recently delayed its big fall release Battlefield 2042, but the move provides a strong buying opportunity.\nEA...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457473-electronic-arts-strong-fundamentals-continue-amid-dip-buying-opportunity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"EA":"艺电"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457473-electronic-arts-strong-fundamentals-continue-amid-dip-buying-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112583450","content_text":"Summary\n\nElectronic Arts Fiscal Q1 results were solid compared to a strong 2020 period.\nEA recently delayed its big fall release Battlefield 2042, but the move provides a strong buying opportunity.\nEA has strengthened its mobile gaming talent over the past year and has a stronger pipeline for mobile revenue than ever.\n\nSundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nElectronic Arts (EA) is a household name with great fundamentals. 70%+ long-term margins and stable revenue streams have led to strong shareholder returns over time. The stock has underperformed since mid-2018 but now the gaming companies are being priced near value stock levels. They have recently had a significant dip in the stock price, due to the delay of their big release of the year, Battlefield 2042 to November 19th. This is giving a great entry point into EA stock, with most of those sales still able to be captured with a later release date. EA has a great technical setup with the stock pushing near its all-time high of $148.97 several times in 2021 since first reaching the level in mid-2018. As you can see below, revenue has increased significantly to 5.7B in the past year, with 2022 GAAP revenue guidance at $6.8 Billion, yet the stock is still consolidating since mid-2018. This gives potential for an outsized move upwards when those highs are broken. Higher lows have been encouraging and this may be the last significant 15%+ dip before breaking out to all-time highs.\nData by YCharts\nGreat Fiscal Q1\nElectronic Arts had a strong Fiscal Q1, even with comparison to a very strong 2020 period. Net bookings which are the most accurate indicator of business performance were up 3% over the prior year to $6.136 Billion USD. Guidance for 2022 was to $7.4 Billion in billings - or 20.6% growth. Revenue follows billings so we will see Revenue and earnings flow through next year from the strong results of late. The sports franchises of Madden, NHL, and especially FIFA continue to lead the way for EA with consistent performance. The sports franchises had a combined 140 million players in the past year, with over 31 million playing the newest FIFA 2021 iteration. Sports are predictable and popular games, something that adds stability to revenue and earnings over time. FUT matches are still growing at a strong pace with 48% growth over last year in Q1. Battlefield's delay may hurt the billings number as some sales will be lost to competitors such as Call of Duty Vanguard from Activision Blizzard (ATVI). However, game delays in recent years have not negatively impacted sales much for those titles. These delays due to tough deadlines are very commonplace in the industry and I believe the negative reaction in EA stock on a one-month delay is overdone. All the while, Apex Legends has seen a resurgence with many players going back to the game and it proved to be a more lasting title than many had expected. The game actually had the most players ever in the recent season, impressive for a game that has been out for several years now.\n\nAs you can see above, the fiscal year billings growth has been lumpy but overall, I expect high single digits to low double digits growth over time. The increase to FY 2021 was at least partially due to the coronavirus, although the environment continues to be very supportive there. Restrictions on travel and other entertainment worldwide continue to be a significant tailwind on gaming hours played. Live services which include microtransactions and game passes continue to become a larger part of EA's business. FIFA's success is a big portion of this, and EA announces 4 seasons for Battlefield 2042 per year with passes to purchase. This should give a solid income stream for the years after the game's release. The announced Battlefield Portal allowing people to create new maps using old releases seems great to foster engagement in paid season passes. The new Hazard Zone mode adds additional content as well with an Escape from Tarkov-like squad survival scenario. One thing is clear - EA put more effort into Battlefield 2042 and keeping it interesting for 2+ years than the past few series titles. EA confirmed it would be an every other year release, with things like Battlefield Portal likely working with multiple releases. These, plus the new mobile Battlefield game that's to come, make me more bullish for the future to take some share from Call of Duty. Some investors may be worried about the $7.4 Billion billings number for Fiscal 2022 with the game delay, but matching that bar should give the stock a very significant boost over the next 12 months.\nThe company does also have a significant share buyback program which is helping to support the stock during any dips. EA bought back 976 million in stock over the past year - just under 3% of the total market cap of 36 Billion US. Expect more significant buyback activity in the coming weeks with the stock having dipped again due to the Battlefield 2042 delay. EA also pays a small dividend at 17 cents per quarter. While this is a yield of around 0.5%, it can grow significantly over time and shows the ongoing commitment to shareholders by the management team.\nContinued Growth in Mobile\nEA has continued to try to catch up to its competition like Activision Blizzard in the mobile area. EA had already purchased Glu Mobile earlier this year to expand their growing stable of casual mobile games. Now, EA recently completed the purchase of Playdemic for 1.4 Billion, the makers of golf clash. According to Sensor Tower, during the strong pandemic period,Golf Clash did an impressive $132.8 million USD of revenue. 10x sales is a reasonable price to pay for a game that has a very strong and growing userbase and a talented team behind it. EA is thinking long term with Playdemic likely to work on other IP from EA's stable in the coming years. They hinted on the conference call at a global Madden or FIFA mobile game where they have the license already - a tantalizing thought for investors. Mobile is growing for EA with 16% growth over 2019 levels in 2021, but they continue to invest heavily in this area. Casual games have a very long tail and are among the most profitable due to the lower operating expenses associated with the game creation. EA has also announced they are making a mobile game for the popular Apex Legends Battle Royale game, as well as the beforementioned one for Battlefield. This is likely after having seen Activision succeed with its mobile Call of Duty game, and the fact they haven't monetized many franchises in mobile yet. This is a chance for EA to really grow mobile as a portion of the business, with it only representing 13.5% of bookings over the last year. However, the growth rate for mobile will accelerate with it at 20% in Fiscal Q1 and likely to provide a big boost in coming years.\nConclusion\nThe recent dip is an excellent buying opportunity for those that don't own any EA stock. The stock has been pushing against its all-time high level near 150, and when it breaks through to the upside should see significant gains. It is trading at a very inexpensive 16x Forward P/E - giving it near value stock status in the current market. Any additional lockdowns or restrictions would be bullish for EA as well, as many young people continue to spend heavily on gaming. EA has set itself up well for the long term, by focusing on their weakness in the mobile category with acquisitions and use of existing IP. Mobile is an area where EA has significantly lagged its major competition, but the moves made in 2021 will pay big dividends in future years - with shareholders likely to benefit.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862922677,"gmtCreate":1632831835535,"gmtModify":1632831835615,"author":{"id":"3583974243419968","authorId":"3583974243419968","name":"klo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d3dcf83877ea1c1bf83a2ba2b540df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"J","listText":"J","text":"J","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862922677","repostId":"2170705176","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":628,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":861615903,"gmtCreate":1632491554402,"gmtModify":1632717579429,"author":{"id":"3583974243419968","authorId":"3583974243419968","name":"klo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d3dcf83877ea1c1bf83a2ba2b540df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/861615903","repostId":"1101828608","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":605,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":861615903,"gmtCreate":1632491554402,"gmtModify":1632717579429,"author":{"id":"3583974243419968","authorId":"3583974243419968","name":"klo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d3dcf83877ea1c1bf83a2ba2b540df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/861615903","repostId":"1101828608","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101828608","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1632490246,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101828608?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-24 21:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite kick off Friday trade modestly lower after two-day rally","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101828608","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Sept 24) Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite kick off Friday trade modestly lower after two-day rally. B","content":"<p>(Sept 24)&nbsp;Dow, S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq Composite kick off Friday trade modestly lower after two-day rally.&nbsp;Blockchain stocks plunge in morning trading,&nbsp;after the PBOC says all crypto-related transactions are illegal.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d29b68e35bb71d87b1d5907571b54de\" tg-width=\"345\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Meanwhile Nike validated the fears of investors worried about the pandemic wreaking havoc with supply chains and raising costs for companies, especially multinationals.&nbsp;Nike&nbsp;shares fell nearly 6% after the sneaker giant lowered its fiscal 2022 outlook because of a prolonged production shutdown in Vietnam, labor shortages and lengthy transit times. Nike expects full-year sales to rise at a mid-single-digit pace, compared to low double-digit growth it forecast before.</p>\n<p>The company also&nbsp;reported quarterly revenue&nbsp;that missed analysts’ expectations due to softening demand in North America as the delta variant flared up. Other apparel makers and retailers fell. Under Armour shed 2%.</p>\n<p>Some China concepts stocks retreated in morning trading.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ec143b47433a8b4c97052825c85a274\" tg-width=\"345\" tg-height=\"836\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Airline shares, Carnival stocks rally in morning trading.&nbsp;Carnival announce&nbsp;that&nbsp;FQ3 GAAP net loss of $2.8B and adjusted net loss of $2B,&nbsp;voyages for the quarter were cash flow positive and the company expects this to continue.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a75eacf55c68a056a346c93823be085f\" tg-width=\"339\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite kick off Friday trade modestly lower after two-day rally</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite kick off Friday trade modestly lower after two-day rally\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-24 21:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Sept 24)&nbsp;Dow, S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq Composite kick off Friday trade modestly lower after two-day rally.&nbsp;Blockchain stocks plunge in morning trading,&nbsp;after the PBOC says all crypto-related transactions are illegal.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d29b68e35bb71d87b1d5907571b54de\" tg-width=\"345\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Meanwhile Nike validated the fears of investors worried about the pandemic wreaking havoc with supply chains and raising costs for companies, especially multinationals.&nbsp;Nike&nbsp;shares fell nearly 6% after the sneaker giant lowered its fiscal 2022 outlook because of a prolonged production shutdown in Vietnam, labor shortages and lengthy transit times. Nike expects full-year sales to rise at a mid-single-digit pace, compared to low double-digit growth it forecast before.</p>\n<p>The company also&nbsp;reported quarterly revenue&nbsp;that missed analysts’ expectations due to softening demand in North America as the delta variant flared up. Other apparel makers and retailers fell. Under Armour shed 2%.</p>\n<p>Some China concepts stocks retreated in morning trading.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ec143b47433a8b4c97052825c85a274\" tg-width=\"345\" tg-height=\"836\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Airline shares, Carnival stocks rally in morning trading.&nbsp;Carnival announce&nbsp;that&nbsp;FQ3 GAAP net loss of $2.8B and adjusted net loss of $2B,&nbsp;voyages for the quarter were cash flow positive and the company expects this to continue.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a75eacf55c68a056a346c93823be085f\" tg-width=\"339\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101828608","content_text":"(Sept 24) Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite kick off Friday trade modestly lower after two-day rally. Blockchain stocks plunge in morning trading, after the PBOC says all crypto-related transactions are illegal.\nMeanwhile Nike validated the fears of investors worried about the pandemic wreaking havoc with supply chains and raising costs for companies, especially multinationals. Nike shares fell nearly 6% after the sneaker giant lowered its fiscal 2022 outlook because of a prolonged production shutdown in Vietnam, labor shortages and lengthy transit times. Nike expects full-year sales to rise at a mid-single-digit pace, compared to low double-digit growth it forecast before.\nThe company also reported quarterly revenue that missed analysts’ expectations due to softening demand in North America as the delta variant flared up. Other apparel makers and retailers fell. Under Armour shed 2%.\nSome China concepts stocks retreated in morning trading.\n\nAirline shares, Carnival stocks rally in morning trading. Carnival announce that FQ3 GAAP net loss of $2.8B and adjusted net loss of $2B, voyages for the quarter were cash flow positive and the company expects this to continue.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":605,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829631644,"gmtCreate":1633496154512,"gmtModify":1633496154760,"author":{"id":"3583974243419968","authorId":"3583974243419968","name":"klo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d3dcf83877ea1c1bf83a2ba2b540df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829631644","repostId":"1103782575","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103782575","pubTimestamp":1633486462,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103782575?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-06 10:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't worry (too much) about an October market crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103782575","media":"CNN Business","summary":"New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously cras","content":"<p><b>New York (CNN Business)&nbsp;-&nbsp;</b>October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008.</p>\n<p>But&nbsp;the marketisn't always a terrifying place to be just before Halloween. In fact,stocks typically go up&nbsp;in October.</p>\n<p>According to data from Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, October is just about in the middle of the pack: It has been the 7th best month for the S&amp;P 500 since 1950 and the 4th best over the past 10 and 20 years.</p>\n<p>\"October is known for some spectacular crashes and many expect bad things to happen again this year,\" Detrick said in a report last week. \"But the truth is this month is simply misunderstood, as historically it is about an average month.\"</p>\n<p>And it could be better than average this October, because there are no potentially game-changing election results coming in November.</p>\n<p>Since 1999, the S&amp;P 500 has gained 3.6% in odd-year Octobers and fallen 1.1% in even-numbered ones, corresponding to the US election schedule.</p>\n<p>\"It turns out stocks don't like politics much,\" Detrick said.</p>\n<p><b>Many risks remain but outlook still promising for stocks</b></p>\n<p>Of course DC headlines could still roil the market this year, albeit not because of an election.</p>\n<p>The debt ceiling debate has yet to be resolved, and Congress still hasn't passed President Joe Biden's infrastructure and social spending plans. Meanwhile Biden also must soon decide whether he wants to nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed chairman or pick someone else.</p>\n<p>\"The fourth quarter — like the conclusion of sporting events or Broadway plays — is where the drama lies,\" Louis Navellier, chairman of Navellier &amp; Associates, said in a report last week.</p>\n<p>That said, Navellier is hopeful the usual seasonal tailwinds for the markets and the broader economy will lift stocks this year.</p>\n<p>Stocks tend to enjoy not just solid gains in October, but also for the remainder of the fourth quarter. Consumer spending surges during the holiday shopping season and businesses often look to boost investments before annual budgets run out.</p>\n<p>With that in mind, some strategists think that investors will continue to focus on the positive when looking ahead to earnings for Q4 and 2022.</p>\n<p>Yes, worries remain about Covid-19, Fed policy, inflation, global shipping delays and numerous other economic warning signs.</p>\n<p>But although this could create more volatility than usual in October and the rest of the fourth quarter, few expect that these challenges will lead to another recession. So the path of least resistance for stocks is still upward.</p>\n<p>\"Virtually all of these problems are showing tangible signs toward resolution,\" Robert Teeter, managing director at Silvercrest Asset Management, said in a report Monday, \"and should not inflict any long-term damage to stock valuations.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't worry (too much) about an October market crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't worry (too much) about an October market crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-06 10:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html><strong>CNN Business</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008.\nBut the marketisn't always a terrifying place to...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103782575","content_text":"New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008.\nBut the marketisn't always a terrifying place to be just before Halloween. In fact,stocks typically go up in October.\nAccording to data from Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, October is just about in the middle of the pack: It has been the 7th best month for the S&P 500 since 1950 and the 4th best over the past 10 and 20 years.\n\"October is known for some spectacular crashes and many expect bad things to happen again this year,\" Detrick said in a report last week. \"But the truth is this month is simply misunderstood, as historically it is about an average month.\"\nAnd it could be better than average this October, because there are no potentially game-changing election results coming in November.\nSince 1999, the S&P 500 has gained 3.6% in odd-year Octobers and fallen 1.1% in even-numbered ones, corresponding to the US election schedule.\n\"It turns out stocks don't like politics much,\" Detrick said.\nMany risks remain but outlook still promising for stocks\nOf course DC headlines could still roil the market this year, albeit not because of an election.\nThe debt ceiling debate has yet to be resolved, and Congress still hasn't passed President Joe Biden's infrastructure and social spending plans. Meanwhile Biden also must soon decide whether he wants to nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed chairman or pick someone else.\n\"The fourth quarter — like the conclusion of sporting events or Broadway plays — is where the drama lies,\" Louis Navellier, chairman of Navellier & Associates, said in a report last week.\nThat said, Navellier is hopeful the usual seasonal tailwinds for the markets and the broader economy will lift stocks this year.\nStocks tend to enjoy not just solid gains in October, but also for the remainder of the fourth quarter. Consumer spending surges during the holiday shopping season and businesses often look to boost investments before annual budgets run out.\nWith that in mind, some strategists think that investors will continue to focus on the positive when looking ahead to earnings for Q4 and 2022.\nYes, worries remain about Covid-19, Fed policy, inflation, global shipping delays and numerous other economic warning signs.\nBut although this could create more volatility than usual in October and the rest of the fourth quarter, few expect that these challenges will lead to another recession. So the path of least resistance for stocks is still upward.\n\"Virtually all of these problems are showing tangible signs toward resolution,\" Robert Teeter, managing director at Silvercrest Asset Management, said in a report Monday, \"and should not inflict any long-term damage to stock valuations.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":823268579,"gmtCreate":1633638480662,"gmtModify":1633638480983,"author":{"id":"3583974243419968","authorId":"3583974243419968","name":"klo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d3dcf83877ea1c1bf83a2ba2b540df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823268579","repostId":"1194460907","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194460907","pubTimestamp":1633610916,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194460907?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-07 20:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett’s folksy investing advice is just what you need in this unfriendly stock market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194460907","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Fundamentals apply, no matter what financial fads are capturing stock investors’ attention.\n\nIndivid","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Fundamentals apply, no matter what financial fads are capturing stock investors’ attention.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Individual investors are back.&nbsp;Throughout 2021, they directly invested billions of dollars in U.S. stocks and real estate. But&nbsp;these assets are now priced&nbsp;at troublingly high levels,&nbsp;and fears of a correction are feeding volatility. Rising U.S. inflation, taxes, and government debt present systemic challenges. Political and social discord prevail. And there’s COVID.</p>\n<p>Facing such turmoil, individual investors are eager for guidance. There are few better sources than Berkshire Hathaway’sBRK.A,+0.80%BRK.B,+0.78%Warren Buffett, renowned for a matchless investment record across six volatile decades as well as for his savvy, accessible advice for investors. On point is this gem from 1994:</p>\n<p>“Thirty years ago, no one could have foreseen the huge expansion of the Vietnam War, wage and price controls, two oil shocks, the resignation of a president, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a one-day drop in the Dow of 508 points, or treasury bill yields fluctuating between 2.8% and 17.4%. But, surprise — none of these blockbuster events made the slightest dent in [fundamental] investment principles.”</p>\n<p>As unprecedented as these times may seem, from angst to innovation, another Buffett gem reminds us that we’ve been here before. In 2018, Buffett wrote again of how the fundamentals of investing are timeless:</p>\n<p>“Since 1942… the country contended at various times with a long period of viral inflation, a 21% prime rate, several controversial and costly wars, the resignation of a president, a pervasive collapse in home values, a paralyzing financial panic and a host of other problems.”</p>\n<p>Buffett has always believed that the fundamentals of investing remain intact even in the face of financial fads or innovations, from the tech bubble of the late 1990s to today’s meme stocks or social investing funds.</p>\n<p>The fundamentals of investing are collated in homespun and humorous essays Buffett has been writing for the shareholders of his company, Berkshire Hathaway, for six decades.&nbsp;Since 1996, with Buffett’s support, I have&nbsp;published a collection&nbsp;of the best of these, representing a comprehensive, non-repetitive and compact mini-course useful to any individual investor.</p>\n<p>In this year’s essay, Buffett warned about the perils of investing by individuals, particularly now in a period brimming with “promoters” telling “stories” that create “illusions” for the gullible. Springing to mind are SPACs, ETFs, ESG funds, and other fashionable offerings. Buffett cautions against “speculators” peddling “enticing ideas” and “calls for action” that “never stop.”</p>\n<p>Buffett advises avoiding such lures. In contrast, he uses two examples from his own investing experience to highlight the appeal for investing of common sense, simplicity and business focus. The examples are his investments in an Omaha farm (in 1986) and a New York City apartment building (in 1993) in which he earned outsized returns by adhering to just a few fundamentals.</p>\n<p>First,&nbsp;Buffett has long said&nbsp;the three most important words in investing are “margin of safety.” He refers to the phrase coined by his mentor, Benjamin Graham, who stressed that investment opportunities arise when priced below value. Buffett purchased the farm from a failed banker, and the building from a government receiver.&nbsp;They were eager&nbsp;sellers offering low prices given market conditions. Hunting for such safety is especially important in current highly-priced markets.</p>\n<p>Second, Buffett says “keep it simple” and “don’t swing for the fences.” He isn’t an expert in farming or real estate. But he understood enough to estimate revenues and expenses on these assets over a decade-long holding period. Buffett estimated a 10% return, which he judged reasonable for the moderate risk. In fact, both of these investments saw earnings triple estimates and their value quintuple. If you keep it simple, meaning invest in things you understand, you only need basic competence to comfortably make economic estimates.</p>\n<p>Finally, Buffett advises to “focus on the playing field, not the scoreboard.”&nbsp; By this he means to study the asset and related business prospects rather than any market price.&nbsp;In stocks, for example, focus on the value of the expected cash flows over the next 10 years, not on today’s closing price; for an office building, focus on the value of the expected rent rolls, not on the sales price of the building down the block.</p>\n<p>Individual investors know that investing is not easy and that choppy waters can make things uncomfortable. Following the fundamentals helps, as does the perspective that history provides.</p>\n<p><i>Lawrence A.&nbsp;Cunningham&nbsp;is a professor at George Washington University, founder of the&nbsp;Quality Shareholders Group, and publisher, since 1997, of&nbsp;“The Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America.”&nbsp;Cunningham owns shares of&nbsp;Berkshire Hathaway.</i></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett’s folksy investing advice is just what you need in this unfriendly stock market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett’s folksy investing advice is just what you need in this unfriendly stock market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-07 20:48 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffetts-folksy-investing-advice-is-just-what-you-need-in-this-unfriendly-stock-market-11633589615?siteid=yhoof2><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Fundamentals apply, no matter what financial fads are capturing stock investors’ attention.\n\nIndividual investors are back. Throughout 2021, they directly invested billions of dollars in U.S. stocks ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffetts-folksy-investing-advice-is-just-what-you-need-in-this-unfriendly-stock-market-11633589615?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffetts-folksy-investing-advice-is-just-what-you-need-in-this-unfriendly-stock-market-11633589615?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1194460907","content_text":"Fundamentals apply, no matter what financial fads are capturing stock investors’ attention.\n\nIndividual investors are back. Throughout 2021, they directly invested billions of dollars in U.S. stocks and real estate. But these assets are now priced at troublingly high levels, and fears of a correction are feeding volatility. Rising U.S. inflation, taxes, and government debt present systemic challenges. Political and social discord prevail. And there’s COVID.\nFacing such turmoil, individual investors are eager for guidance. There are few better sources than Berkshire Hathaway’sBRK.A,+0.80%BRK.B,+0.78%Warren Buffett, renowned for a matchless investment record across six volatile decades as well as for his savvy, accessible advice for investors. On point is this gem from 1994:\n“Thirty years ago, no one could have foreseen the huge expansion of the Vietnam War, wage and price controls, two oil shocks, the resignation of a president, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a one-day drop in the Dow of 508 points, or treasury bill yields fluctuating between 2.8% and 17.4%. But, surprise — none of these blockbuster events made the slightest dent in [fundamental] investment principles.”\nAs unprecedented as these times may seem, from angst to innovation, another Buffett gem reminds us that we’ve been here before. In 2018, Buffett wrote again of how the fundamentals of investing are timeless:\n“Since 1942… the country contended at various times with a long period of viral inflation, a 21% prime rate, several controversial and costly wars, the resignation of a president, a pervasive collapse in home values, a paralyzing financial panic and a host of other problems.”\nBuffett has always believed that the fundamentals of investing remain intact even in the face of financial fads or innovations, from the tech bubble of the late 1990s to today’s meme stocks or social investing funds.\nThe fundamentals of investing are collated in homespun and humorous essays Buffett has been writing for the shareholders of his company, Berkshire Hathaway, for six decades. Since 1996, with Buffett’s support, I have published a collection of the best of these, representing a comprehensive, non-repetitive and compact mini-course useful to any individual investor.\nIn this year’s essay, Buffett warned about the perils of investing by individuals, particularly now in a period brimming with “promoters” telling “stories” that create “illusions” for the gullible. Springing to mind are SPACs, ETFs, ESG funds, and other fashionable offerings. Buffett cautions against “speculators” peddling “enticing ideas” and “calls for action” that “never stop.”\nBuffett advises avoiding such lures. In contrast, he uses two examples from his own investing experience to highlight the appeal for investing of common sense, simplicity and business focus. The examples are his investments in an Omaha farm (in 1986) and a New York City apartment building (in 1993) in which he earned outsized returns by adhering to just a few fundamentals.\nFirst, Buffett has long said the three most important words in investing are “margin of safety.” He refers to the phrase coined by his mentor, Benjamin Graham, who stressed that investment opportunities arise when priced below value. Buffett purchased the farm from a failed banker, and the building from a government receiver. They were eager sellers offering low prices given market conditions. Hunting for such safety is especially important in current highly-priced markets.\nSecond, Buffett says “keep it simple” and “don’t swing for the fences.” He isn’t an expert in farming or real estate. But he understood enough to estimate revenues and expenses on these assets over a decade-long holding period. Buffett estimated a 10% return, which he judged reasonable for the moderate risk. In fact, both of these investments saw earnings triple estimates and their value quintuple. If you keep it simple, meaning invest in things you understand, you only need basic competence to comfortably make economic estimates.\nFinally, Buffett advises to “focus on the playing field, not the scoreboard.”  By this he means to study the asset and related business prospects rather than any market price. In stocks, for example, focus on the value of the expected cash flows over the next 10 years, not on today’s closing price; for an office building, focus on the value of the expected rent rolls, not on the sales price of the building down the block.\nIndividual investors know that investing is not easy and that choppy waters can make things uncomfortable. Following the fundamentals helps, as does the perspective that history provides.\nLawrence A. Cunningham is a professor at George Washington University, founder of the Quality Shareholders Group, and publisher, since 1997, of “The Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America.” Cunningham owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828911488,"gmtCreate":1633831759604,"gmtModify":1633831759690,"author":{"id":"3583974243419968","authorId":"3583974243419968","name":"klo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d3dcf83877ea1c1bf83a2ba2b540df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828911488","repostId":"1194780749","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194780749","pubTimestamp":1633828304,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194780749?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-10 09:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2022 Could Be A Great Year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194780749","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Economies are reaccelerating as the number of Delta cases and death have peaked.We could have a great year in 2022 if our government could get its act together.We have concentrated on the producers that will benefit from a robust global economy and tech companies benefitting from the digitalization boom.Even though we are rapidly putting the delta variant in the rear-view mirror, financial markets are struggling due to a lack of leadership in D.C. We have shortages and supply line issues that ha","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Economies are reaccelerating as the number of Delta cases and death have peaked.</li>\n <li>We could have a great year in 2022 if our government could get its act together.</li>\n <li>We have concentrated on the producers that will benefit from a robust global economy and tech companies benefitting from the digitalization boom.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Even though we are rapidly putting the delta variant in the rear-view mirror, financial markets are struggling due to a lack of leadership in D.C. We have shortages and supply line issues that hamper production and profitability. All of this will pass.</p>\n<p>What is the problem? Our government is dysfunctional, and we need leadership, especially now, to handle the myriad of domestic and foreign issues facing all of us. We will muddle through and finally get a much-needed traditional infrastructure bill and possibly a scaled-down $2 trillion social spending bill along with lower-than-expected punitive tax increases, this year but 2022 could be a great year, not just a very good year, if only we worked together.</p>\n<p>We have not altered our view that S&amp;P earnings could exceed $220/share in 2022 and $235/share in 2023 as operating margins hit nearly 14% in 2023, up from 11.5% in 2019. Why? Corporations have learned to do more with less during the pandemic; shortages and supply line issues will ease, and substantial increases in technology spending will go a long way, offsetting higher labor costs while improving operations/efficiencies on all levels. Powell will be right that higher inflationary pressures will be transitory, but it may take longer to normalize. We will continue to have accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in 2022. Not a bad market scenario, so use corrections as opportunities to add to your positions. So, as I've said before, invest, don't trade.</p>\n<p>Economies are reaccelerating as the number of Delta cases and death have peaked. Domestic cases have declined 23% and deaths 13% over the 14 days and 17% and 14%, respectively, globally. More than 6.43 billion doses have been administered globally across 184 countries at a daily rate of 28.7 million doses per day. In the U.S., 398 million doses have been given so far at an elevated rate of 931,983 doses per day.</p>\n<p>We still see over 75% of the global population vaccinated within six months and herd immunity sooner. Pfizer(NYSE:PFE)filed Thursday with the FDA its vaccine for children ages 5-11, bringing shots for all school-age children closer, which will boost the economy as parents can return to work. We expect that both Pfizer and Merck's(NYSE:MRK)filings with the FDA will be approved well before year-end. All good news!</p>\n<p>The Fed is itching to start tapering, ending its extraordinary monetary support, which is no longer needed as the economy is on firm footing, and it appears that the Delta variant is subsiding. Unfortunately, Powell and the Fed have been called out for oversight over board members' trading. Two governors have already resigned, and we expect one more may leave shortly. Tapering will probably begin before year-end if the next employment report improves from September and be finished by the third quarter of 2022.</p>\n<p>Again, tapering is NOT tightening, and we do not expect the Fed to start hiking the funds' rate until early 2023. The \"real\" funds' rate will be negative for some time which is NOT tightening at all. By the way, we disagree with Elizabeth Warren's criticism of Chairman Powell and hope that he is renominated next year. The bottom line is that the Fed will remain your friend for at least another 18 months. Don't fight the Fed!</p>\n<p>We are so frustrated by what is happening in D.C. It is all about politics, no surprise, and not about doing what is best for this country. Why do we always have to go to the brink before action is taken? That is precisely what happened this week when the Republicans caved and offered a two-month short-term debt limit extension letting the Dems off the hook from going the route of reconciliation. It passed Thursday night. Daily negotiations continue for the massive social infrastructure program. It will be much smaller than initially proposed, closer to $2 trillion rather than $3.5 trillion. We expect the individual and corporate tax increases to be much more reasonable than initially proposed, which is a clear positive for the economy and financial markets.</p>\n<p>The domestic economy is recovering from the Delta variant, which penalized growth during the summer months. The areas hit most over the summer; travel, dining, and leisure are coming back strongly, as evidenced by the recovery in the high-frequency data.</p>\n<p>Other recent data points include: initial jobless claims fell more than expected to 326,000; the index of consumer sentiment rose in September to 72.9, current economic conditions increased to 80.1, and consumer expectations rose to 68.1; the September Manufacturing PMI increased to 61.1, new orders to 66.7, employment up to 50.1, supplier deliveries to 73.4 and prices index increased to 81.2; the services index grew for the 15th month hitting 60.1, new orders at 63.2, employment at 53.7 and supplier deliveries at 69.6; new orders for manufactured goods increased 1.2% while shipments rose 0.1% and unfilled orders increased 1.0%; and the trade deficit widened to $73.3 billion as imports increased more rapidly than exports due to the strength of the domestic economy.</p>\n<p>Growth and profitability would be even more robust if not for shortages and supply line issues. But that will turn around in 2022 and be a big plus. The September employment data was disappointing with only 194,000 jobs created. The private sector did better adding 317,000 jobs while the public sector lost 123,000 jobs. Interestingly the unemployment rate fell to 4.8% which is the Fed's year-end target as the participation rate declined to 61.6. Hourly earnings rose 0.6% and are up 4.3% in the year through August. The Fed will most likely wait to see the next employment report before beginning tapering.</p>\n<p>The Eurozone economy has finally exceeded pre-covid levels, with most of the 20 indices that we monitor accelerating in recent weeks as cases/deaths have declined meaningfully. Shortages and supply line issues have hampered production while increasing inflationary pressures and won't ease until mid-2022. Energy costs are a real problem and may penalize growth next year. Unfortunately, OPEC opted against a big output boost lifting production by only 400,000 barrels/day, which will not be enough to limit further price increases, especially if we have a cold winter. And natural gas prices have gone through the roof, which will crimp consumer spending and hurt corporate operating margins.</p>\n<p>The global economy is improving as the number of covid cases, and deaths have peaked. Growth would even be more robust if not for shortages and supply line issues, but that will reverse as we move through 2022.</p>\n<p>Investment Conclusions</p>\n<p>Thursday, there was a massive sigh of relief when Congress agreed to extend the debt limit two months, ending the stalemate. We expect the Dems to coalesce around a roughly $2 trillion social infrastructure bill that will permit passage of the much-needed $1 trillion traditional infrastructure bill. What is a government? Fiscal policy will remain stimulative for years to come.</p>\n<p>Then we have a monetary policy. We expect the Fed to remain accommodative for a few more years. We do expect tapering to begin before year-end if the November employment report improves from the last one, but we do&nbsp;<b>not</b>&nbsp;see a rate hike until 2023, and even then, the \"real\" funds' rate will be negative, which is not restrictive at all.</p>\n<p>Shortages and supply line issues have played havoc on production and profitability for many industries/companies around the world in 2021, but this will reverse as we move through 2022, creating opportunities for investors willing to look over the valley.</p>\n<p>The bottom line is that we could have a great year in 2022 if our government could get its act together. The key remains keeping the coronavirus out of the picture, so we must vaccinate all the unvaccinated.</p>\n<p>While we have not seen many changes in our portfolio over the last few months, we have concentrated on the producers that will benefit from a robust global economy and tech companies benefitting from the digitalization boom. We recently added some financials and energy companies as we expect the yield curve to steepen more than previously anticipated. Higher energy prices are immediately ahead as demand outstrips supply. Next year, the big story will be the significant increase in dividends and buybacks well above the historical trend.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2022 Could Be A Great Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2022 Could Be A Great Year\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-10 09:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459137-2022-could-be-a-great-year><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nEconomies are reaccelerating as the number of Delta cases and death have peaked.\nWe could have a great year in 2022 if our government could get its act together.\nWe have concentrated on the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459137-2022-could-be-a-great-year\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459137-2022-could-be-a-great-year","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1194780749","content_text":"Summary\n\nEconomies are reaccelerating as the number of Delta cases and death have peaked.\nWe could have a great year in 2022 if our government could get its act together.\nWe have concentrated on the producers that will benefit from a robust global economy and tech companies benefitting from the digitalization boom.\n\nEven though we are rapidly putting the delta variant in the rear-view mirror, financial markets are struggling due to a lack of leadership in D.C. We have shortages and supply line issues that hamper production and profitability. All of this will pass.\nWhat is the problem? Our government is dysfunctional, and we need leadership, especially now, to handle the myriad of domestic and foreign issues facing all of us. We will muddle through and finally get a much-needed traditional infrastructure bill and possibly a scaled-down $2 trillion social spending bill along with lower-than-expected punitive tax increases, this year but 2022 could be a great year, not just a very good year, if only we worked together.\nWe have not altered our view that S&P earnings could exceed $220/share in 2022 and $235/share in 2023 as operating margins hit nearly 14% in 2023, up from 11.5% in 2019. Why? Corporations have learned to do more with less during the pandemic; shortages and supply line issues will ease, and substantial increases in technology spending will go a long way, offsetting higher labor costs while improving operations/efficiencies on all levels. Powell will be right that higher inflationary pressures will be transitory, but it may take longer to normalize. We will continue to have accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in 2022. Not a bad market scenario, so use corrections as opportunities to add to your positions. So, as I've said before, invest, don't trade.\nEconomies are reaccelerating as the number of Delta cases and death have peaked. Domestic cases have declined 23% and deaths 13% over the 14 days and 17% and 14%, respectively, globally. More than 6.43 billion doses have been administered globally across 184 countries at a daily rate of 28.7 million doses per day. In the U.S., 398 million doses have been given so far at an elevated rate of 931,983 doses per day.\nWe still see over 75% of the global population vaccinated within six months and herd immunity sooner. Pfizer(NYSE:PFE)filed Thursday with the FDA its vaccine for children ages 5-11, bringing shots for all school-age children closer, which will boost the economy as parents can return to work. We expect that both Pfizer and Merck's(NYSE:MRK)filings with the FDA will be approved well before year-end. All good news!\nThe Fed is itching to start tapering, ending its extraordinary monetary support, which is no longer needed as the economy is on firm footing, and it appears that the Delta variant is subsiding. Unfortunately, Powell and the Fed have been called out for oversight over board members' trading. Two governors have already resigned, and we expect one more may leave shortly. Tapering will probably begin before year-end if the next employment report improves from September and be finished by the third quarter of 2022.\nAgain, tapering is NOT tightening, and we do not expect the Fed to start hiking the funds' rate until early 2023. The \"real\" funds' rate will be negative for some time which is NOT tightening at all. By the way, we disagree with Elizabeth Warren's criticism of Chairman Powell and hope that he is renominated next year. The bottom line is that the Fed will remain your friend for at least another 18 months. Don't fight the Fed!\nWe are so frustrated by what is happening in D.C. It is all about politics, no surprise, and not about doing what is best for this country. Why do we always have to go to the brink before action is taken? That is precisely what happened this week when the Republicans caved and offered a two-month short-term debt limit extension letting the Dems off the hook from going the route of reconciliation. It passed Thursday night. Daily negotiations continue for the massive social infrastructure program. It will be much smaller than initially proposed, closer to $2 trillion rather than $3.5 trillion. We expect the individual and corporate tax increases to be much more reasonable than initially proposed, which is a clear positive for the economy and financial markets.\nThe domestic economy is recovering from the Delta variant, which penalized growth during the summer months. The areas hit most over the summer; travel, dining, and leisure are coming back strongly, as evidenced by the recovery in the high-frequency data.\nOther recent data points include: initial jobless claims fell more than expected to 326,000; the index of consumer sentiment rose in September to 72.9, current economic conditions increased to 80.1, and consumer expectations rose to 68.1; the September Manufacturing PMI increased to 61.1, new orders to 66.7, employment up to 50.1, supplier deliveries to 73.4 and prices index increased to 81.2; the services index grew for the 15th month hitting 60.1, new orders at 63.2, employment at 53.7 and supplier deliveries at 69.6; new orders for manufactured goods increased 1.2% while shipments rose 0.1% and unfilled orders increased 1.0%; and the trade deficit widened to $73.3 billion as imports increased more rapidly than exports due to the strength of the domestic economy.\nGrowth and profitability would be even more robust if not for shortages and supply line issues. But that will turn around in 2022 and be a big plus. The September employment data was disappointing with only 194,000 jobs created. The private sector did better adding 317,000 jobs while the public sector lost 123,000 jobs. Interestingly the unemployment rate fell to 4.8% which is the Fed's year-end target as the participation rate declined to 61.6. Hourly earnings rose 0.6% and are up 4.3% in the year through August. The Fed will most likely wait to see the next employment report before beginning tapering.\nThe Eurozone economy has finally exceeded pre-covid levels, with most of the 20 indices that we monitor accelerating in recent weeks as cases/deaths have declined meaningfully. Shortages and supply line issues have hampered production while increasing inflationary pressures and won't ease until mid-2022. Energy costs are a real problem and may penalize growth next year. Unfortunately, OPEC opted against a big output boost lifting production by only 400,000 barrels/day, which will not be enough to limit further price increases, especially if we have a cold winter. And natural gas prices have gone through the roof, which will crimp consumer spending and hurt corporate operating margins.\nThe global economy is improving as the number of covid cases, and deaths have peaked. Growth would even be more robust if not for shortages and supply line issues, but that will reverse as we move through 2022.\nInvestment Conclusions\nThursday, there was a massive sigh of relief when Congress agreed to extend the debt limit two months, ending the stalemate. We expect the Dems to coalesce around a roughly $2 trillion social infrastructure bill that will permit passage of the much-needed $1 trillion traditional infrastructure bill. What is a government? Fiscal policy will remain stimulative for years to come.\nThen we have a monetary policy. We expect the Fed to remain accommodative for a few more years. We do expect tapering to begin before year-end if the November employment report improves from the last one, but we do not see a rate hike until 2023, and even then, the \"real\" funds' rate will be negative, which is not restrictive at all.\nShortages and supply line issues have played havoc on production and profitability for many industries/companies around the world in 2021, but this will reverse as we move through 2022, creating opportunities for investors willing to look over the valley.\nThe bottom line is that we could have a great year in 2022 if our government could get its act together. The key remains keeping the coronavirus out of the picture, so we must vaccinate all the unvaccinated.\nWhile we have not seen many changes in our portfolio over the last few months, we have concentrated on the producers that will benefit from a robust global economy and tech companies benefitting from the digitalization boom. We recently added some financials and energy companies as we expect the yield curve to steepen more than previously anticipated. Higher energy prices are immediately ahead as demand outstrips supply. Next year, the big story will be the significant increase in dividends and buybacks well above the historical trend.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690679137,"gmtCreate":1639666525243,"gmtModify":1639666564024,"author":{"id":"3583974243419968","authorId":"3583974243419968","name":"klo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d3dcf83877ea1c1bf83a2ba2b540df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"R","listText":"R","text":"R","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690679137","repostId":"1171328517","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171328517","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1639666148,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1171328517?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-16 22:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Kaixin Auto rose 25% in morning trading as it won an order agreement for 10,000 new energy trucks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171328517","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Kaixin Auto rose 25% in morning trading as it won an order agreement for 10,000 new energy trucks.Be","content":"<p>Kaixin Auto rose 25% in morning trading as it won an order agreement for 10,000 new energy trucks.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d374503429ec3624076f5d7dbddb0bec\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"557\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Beijing Bujia International Logistics Limited has agreed to order at least 10,000 new energy trucks over the next five years, with a deal worth more than $500 million, it said.</p>\n<p>Lin Mingjun, chairman and CEO of Kaixin Auto Group, said that the company's R&amp;D team is working on product design to meet Bujia's needs, which is expected to be released in the first quarter of next year.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Kaixin Auto rose 25% in morning trading as it won an order agreement for 10,000 new energy trucks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nKaixin Auto rose 25% in morning trading as it won an order agreement for 10,000 new energy trucks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-12-16 22:49</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Kaixin Auto rose 25% in morning trading as it won an order agreement for 10,000 new energy trucks.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d374503429ec3624076f5d7dbddb0bec\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"557\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Beijing Bujia International Logistics Limited has agreed to order at least 10,000 new energy trucks over the next five years, with a deal worth more than $500 million, it said.</p>\n<p>Lin Mingjun, chairman and CEO of Kaixin Auto Group, said that the company's R&amp;D team is working on product design to meet Bujia's needs, which is expected to be released in the first quarter of next year.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"KXIN":"开心汽车"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171328517","content_text":"Kaixin Auto rose 25% in morning trading as it won an order agreement for 10,000 new energy trucks.Beijing Bujia International Logistics Limited has agreed to order at least 10,000 new energy trucks over the next five years, with a deal worth more than $500 million, it said.\nLin Mingjun, chairman and CEO of Kaixin Auto Group, said that the company's R&D team is working on product design to meet Bujia's needs, which is expected to be released in the first quarter of next year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":467,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":865253694,"gmtCreate":1632990877243,"gmtModify":1632990877517,"author":{"id":"3583974243419968","authorId":"3583974243419968","name":"klo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d3dcf83877ea1c1bf83a2ba2b540df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865253694","repostId":"1104172212","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104172212","pubTimestamp":1632965278,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104172212?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-30 09:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2021 Global Market Outlook - Q4 Update: Growing Pains","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104172212","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows.</li>\n <li>The reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor.</li>\n <li>The key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The COVID-19 delta variant, inflation and central bank tapering are unnerving investors. <b>We expect the pandemic-recovery trade to resume as inflation subsides, infection rates decline and tapering turns out to not equal tightening. Amid this backdrop, our outlook favors equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-U.S. stocks over U.S. stocks.</b></p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>The post-lockdown recovery has transitioned from energetic youthfulness to awkward adolescence. It’s still growing, although at a slower pace, and there are worries about what happens next, particularly about monetary policy and the outlook for inflation. Theinflation spikehas been larger than expected, but we still think it istransitory, caused by base effects from when the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) fell during the lockdown last year and by temporary supply bottlenecks. Inflation may remain high over the remainder of 2021 but should decline in early 2022. This means that even though the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to begin tapering back on asset purchases before the end of the year, rate hikes are unlikely before the second half of 2023.</p>\n<p>Another worry is thehighly contagious COVID-19 delta variant. The evidence so far is that vaccines are effective in preventing serious COVID-19 infections. Vaccination rates are accelerating globally, and emerging economies are catching up with developed markets. Infection rates appear to have peaked globally in early September. This means the reopening of economies should continue over the remainder of 2021. The onset of winter in the northern hemisphere will be a test, but the rollout of booster vaccination shots should help prevent widescale renewed lockdowns.</p>\n<p>The conclusions from our cycle, value and sentiment (CVS) investment decision-making process are broadly unchanged from our previous quarterly report. Global equities remain expensive, with the very expensive U.S. market offsetting better value elsewhere. Sentiment is slightly overbought, but not close to dangerous levels of euphoria. The strong cycle delivers a preference for equities over bonds for at least the next 12 months, despite expensive valuations. It also reinforces our preference for thevalue equity factor over the growth factorand for non-U.S. equities to outperform the U.S. market.</p>\n<p><b>Cycle still in recovery phase</b></p>\n<p>The post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows. Even so, we think the cycle is still in the recovery phase, although it is maturing. Despite strong growth, there is plenty of spare capacity. This can be seen in the employment-to-population ratio for prime-age workers in the United States. The chart below shows the ratio has recovered from the pandemic lows, but only to levels reached during the relatively mild recessions in the early 1990s and 2000s. We expect theU.S. labor-market recoveryshould still resemble a typical post-recession recovery over the next few quarters.</p>\n<p><b>U.S. EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO FOR PRIME-AGE WORKERS</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a91fe2991463e2285879c32cb1b8c7\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The U.S. recovery, however, is more advanced than that of other developed economies. The following chart shows how far GDP has recovered, relative to the pre-COVID-19 peak in 2019. GDP is 0.8% higher in the U.S., although this level is still short relative to the pre-COVID-19 trend. GDP is 2.5% below 2019 levels in the euro area and 4.5% below in the United Kingdom. We expect more cyclical upside for economic growth outside the U.S., and this should allow market leadership to rotate toward the rest of the world.</p>\n<p><b>GDP IN Q2 2021 RELATIVE TO PRE-COVID-19 PEAK IN 2019</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/577d1b96aef08b71c9bdb6665a21b2ac\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Two key indicators</b></p>\n<p>Last quarter, we listed two indicators that should offer a guide to the Fed’s expected reaction to the inflation spike.</p>\n<p>The first is five-year/five-year breakeven inflation expectations, based on the pricing of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). This is the market’s forecast for average inflation over five years in five years’ time. It tells us that investors expect inflation will average 2.17% in the five years from late 2026 to late 2031. The TIPS yields are based on the CPI, while the Fed targets inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator. The two move together over time, but CPI inflation is generally around 0.25% higher than PCE inflation. A breakeven rate of 2.75% would suggest the market sees PCE inflation above 2.5% in five years’ time. Market inflation expectations are currently comfortably below the Fed’s worry point.</p>\n<p><b>WATCHPOINT INDICATOR #1: U.S. 5-YEAR/5-YEAR BREAKEVEN INFLATION RATE</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13f3cf57b58f600fe6681e9015779e85\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The second indicator is the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker, and this has a less-comforting message about inflation risks. It reached 3.9% in August, which isclose to the 4% thresholdwhere we judge that the Fed will become concerned about the inflationary impact on the growth of wages. A breakdown shows that the spike has been mostly driven by wages for low-skilled, young people in the leisure and hospitality industry. This suggests the surge has been caused by temporary labor supply shortages and that wage pressures should subside as economic activity normalizes. This indicator, however, will be an important watchpoint over the next few months.</p>\n<p><b>WATCHPOINT INDICATOR #2: ATLANTA FED WAGE GROWTH TRACKER</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d3ff1ca26f6d29a28f919c65531c9a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Reopening trade still makes sense</b></p>\n<p>The reopening trade, which lifts long-term interest rates and favors cyclical and value stocks over technology and growth stocks, worked well for several months following the vaccine announcement last November. Value outperformed growth and yield curves steepened. The trade has reversed in recent months, however, amid fears that the delta variant might derail the economic recovery. The impact has been magnified by short covering in bond markets as investors, who have been short or underweight, have been forced by the rally to buy back into the market, pushing bond yields even lower.</p>\n<p>The reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor. Financial stocks comprise the largest sector in the MSCI World Value Index, and they should benefit from further yield-curve steepening, which boosts the profitability of banks. Long-term interest rates should rise as global growth remains above trend, delta-variant fears fade, the short squeeze unwinds and central banks begin tapering back on bond purchases.</p>\n<p>The rotation in economic growth leadership away from the United States should also help the reopening trade. The rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks relative to the U.S., which has a higher weight to technology stocks.</p>\n<p>Emerging market (EM) equities have been poor performers since the vaccine announcement, but there are some encouraging signs. Initially, they were held back by the exposure to technology stocks in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the slow rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. More recently, they have come under pressure from the slowdown in the Chinese economy and theregulatory crackdown on Chinese tech companies. The vaccine rollout across emerging markets has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon improve the growth outlook. The path of Chinese regulation is harder to predict, but it is now largely priced in, with Chinese technology companies underperforming their global peers by nearly 50% from February 2021 through mid-September.</p>\n<p>The resumption of the reopening trade should also result in U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has traded sideways since the vaccine announcement. It should weaken once investors have confidence that delta-variant risks are subsiding and realize that the Fed is likely to remain dovish as inflation risks decline. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. Dollar weakness should support the performance of non-U.S. markets, particularly emerging markets.</p>\n<p><b>Risks: variants, inflation, China weakness</b></p>\n<p>The key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter. The evidence so far is that vaccinations are highly effective in preventing serious illness. In Israel, booster shots appear to have slowed the rate of new cases.</p>\n<p>Another watchpoint is inflation and the response of central banks. Our expectation is that this year’s inflation spike is mostly transitory and that the major central banks, led by the Fed, are still two years from raising interest rates.</p>\n<p>Finally, there is the risk of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China.Credit growth has slowed this yearand the purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI) have trended lower. Monetary and fiscal policy have been eased, however, and senior officials have signaled that more stimulus is on the way. China policy direction and credit trends will be an important watchpoint over coming months.</p>\n<p><b>Regional snapshotsUnited States</b></p>\n<p>The U.S. economy is likely to sustain above-trend growth into 2022. However, the easiest gains appear in the rear-view mirror at the end of the third quarter as the recovery phase of the business cycle matures. This is most visible for corporate earnings, where S&amp;P 500® Index earnings-per-share already sit 20% above their previous cyclical high.</p>\n<p>Strong fundamentals have helped power the stock market to new highs. Early evidence that the delta-variant wave may be fading and the potential for greater vaccine access for children are positives for a more complete recovery in the quarters ahead. The Fedlooks poised to start tapering its asset purchasesaround the end of 2021. The timing of the first rate hike will then hinge on what happens to inflation next year. Our models suggest that inflation is likely to drop back below the Fed’s 2% target in 2022. If that is correct, the Fed is likely to remain on hold into the second half of 2023.</p>\n<p>Wage inflation is a key risk to this view. It is running unusually strong for this stage of the cycle, and record hiring intentions from businesses could exhaust spare capacity in the year ahead. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise moderately from 1.37% in mid-September to 1.75% in coming months.</p>\n<p>Fiscal stimulus negotiations continue to grab headlines in Washington, D.C. Thetax provisions in these billsare likely to be the most impactful for financial markets. We estimate thathigher corporate taxescould subtract about four percentage points from S&amp;P 500 earnings growth in 2022. This could create volatility and opportunity in markets. Given our strong cyclical outlook, our bias continues to be a<i>risk-on</i>preference for equities over bonds for the medium-term.</p>\n<p><b>Eurozone</b></p>\n<p>Euro area growthslowed through the third quarter but looks on track for a return to above-trend growth over the fourth quarter and into 2022. Vaccination rates are high, and the euro area has more catch-up potential than other major economies, particularly the United States. The euro area is also set to receive more fiscal support than other regions, with the European Union’s pandemic recovery fund only just starting to disburse stimulus, which will provide significant support in southern Europe. Polls in advance of Germany’s federal election on Sept. 26 suggested the electorate was moving toward the political left, which means the new government is likely to support expansionary fiscal policy and a continued dovish stance by the European Central Bank (ECB).</p>\n<p>The MSCI EMU Index, which reflects the European Economic and Monetary Union, has performed broadly in line with the S&amp;P 500 so far in 2021. We think it has potential to outperform in coming quarters. Europe’s exposure to financials and cyclically sensitive sectors such as industrials, materials and energy, and its relatively small exposure to technology, gives it the potential to outperform as delta-variant fears subside, economic activity picks up and yield curves in Europe steepen.</p>\n<p><b>United Kingdom</b></p>\n<p>As of mid-year, UK GDP was still nearly 4.5% below its pre-pandemic peak. We see plenty of scope for strong catch-up growth as borders are fully reopened and activity normalizes. Supply bottlenecks and labor shortages have triggered a sharp rise in underlying inflation and created concerns that the Bank of England (BoE) may start rate hikes in the first half of 2022. We think the BoE is unlikely to be that aggressive. We expect inflation to decline in early 2022 as supply constraints ease, which should convince the BoE to delay rate hikes.</p>\n<p>The FTSE 100 Index is the cheapest of the major developed equity markets in late 2021, and this should help it reflect higher returns than other markets over the next decade. Around 70% of UK corporate earnings come from offshore, so one near-term risk is that further strengthening of British sterling dampens earnings growth. The other risks are mostly around policy missteps, for example, early tightening by the Bank of England.</p>\n<p><b>Japan</b></p>\n<p>The Japanese economy is expected to get a shot in the arm as rising vaccination rates improve mobility and reduce the risk of further lockdowns, and as political leadership changes result in more fiscal stimulus: the Japanese election is due to be held before Nov. 28. Japanese equities look slightly more expensive than other regions such as the UK and Europe. We maintain our view that the Bank of Japan will significantly lag other central banks in normalizing policy.</p>\n<p><b>China</b></p>\n<p>We expect Chinese economic growth to berobust over the next 12 months, supported by a post-lockdown jump in consumer spending and incremental fiscal and monetary easing. Despite a big improvement in vaccination rates,COVID-19 outbreaks remain a riskgiven the Chinese government’s zero-tolerance approach. The major consumer technology companies have seen significant drops in stock prices recently due to more aggressive regulation. Some uncertainty remains around thepath of future regulation, especially as it relates to technology companies, and as a result we expect investors will remain cautious on Chinese equities in the coming months. The property market, particularly property developers as recently highlighted by Evergrande’s debt crisis, remains a risk that we are monitoring closely.</p>\n<p><b>Canada</b></p>\n<p>Canada leads the G71countries in terms of the vaccination rollout, which should minimize the risk of large-scale lockdowns over winter. The delta variant has taken an economic toll, however, with industry consensus projections now predicting 5% GDP growth in 2021 versus estimates of more than 6% just three months ago. Even so, growth remains above-trend and the odds of additional fiscal expenditures to support the economy have increased. This means that weaker growth due to COVID-19 is unlikely to change the Bank of Canada's (BoC) tightening bias.</p>\n<p>Tapering of asset purchasesshould be complete by the end of the first quarter of 2022. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has indicated that the reinvestment phase of the bonds held by the central bank will commence once quantitative easing has ended. This should generate an estimated C$1 billion in weekly bond purchases, down from the current pace of C$2 billion. The BoC will likely only consider shrinking its balance sheet after it has started lifting interest rates. The BoC projects that the output gap will close sometime over the second half of 2022, and that rate hikes will be considered after economic slack has disappeared. We believe that the timeline may be a tad aggressive, and a delay to 2023 for liftoff is more likely. This would better align the Canadian central bank with its American counterpart.</p>\n<p><b>Australia/New Zealand</b></p>\n<p>The Australian economy is set to return to life, with lockdowns likely to be eased in October and November. Consumer and business balance sheets continue to look healthy, which should facilitate a strong recovery. The reopening of the international border in 2022 will provide a further boost. Fiscal policy has supported the economy through the downturn, and there is potential for further stimulus in the lead-up to the federal election, which is due before the end of 2022. The Reserve Bank of Australia has begun the process of tapering its bond-purchase program, but we expect that a rise in the cash rate is unlikely until at least the second half of 2023.</p>\n<p>New Zealand’s most recent lockdown will drag on Q3 GDP, but similar to Australia, we expect a solid rebound as the economy reopens. The government aims to provide a vaccine to all adults by the end of 2021, after which borders will gradually reopen. This will provide a boost, particularly to tourism-exposed sectors. Despite having recently put off hiking interest rates due to the recent lockdown, we expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will start raising rates this year. Even though they have significantly underperformed global equities this year, New Zealand equities still screen as relatively expensive compared to other regions.</p>\n<p><b>Asset-class preferences</b></p>\n<p>Our cycle, value and sentiment investment decision-making process in late September 2021 has a moderately positive medium-term view on global equities. Value is expensive across most markets except for UK equities, which are near fair value. The cycle is risk-asset supportive for the medium-term. The major economies still have spare capacity and inflation pressures appear transitory, caused by COVID-19-related supply shortages. Rate hikes by the U.S. Fed seem unlikely before the second half of 2023. Sentiment, after reaching overbought levels earlier in the year, has returned to more neutral levels.</p>\n<p><b>COMPOSITE CONTRARIAN INDICATOR: SENTIMENT SHIFTS TOWARD NEUTRAL</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c527955abbc9e770d200c1d709f80d8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<ul>\n <li>We prefer<b>non-U.S. equities</b>to U.S. equities. Stronger economic growth and steeper yield curves after the third-quarter slowdown should favor undervalued cyclical value stocks over expensive technology and growth stocks. Relative to the U.S., the rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks.</li>\n <li><b>Emerging markets equities</b>have been relatively poor performers this year, but there are some encouraging signs. The vaccine rollout across EM has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon boost the economic growth outlook.China’s regulatory crackdownhas caused significant underperformance by Chinese technology companies, but this should be less of a headwind going forward now that it is priced in.</li>\n <li><b>High yield</b>and<b>investment grade credit</b>are expensive on a spread basis but have support from a positive cycle view that accommodates corporate profit growth and keeps default rates low. U.S. dollar-denominated<b>emerging markets debt</b>is close to fair value in spread terms and will gain support on U.S. dollar weakness.</li>\n <li><b>Government bonds</b>are expensive, and yields should come under upward pressure as output gaps close and central banks look to taper back asset purchases. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise toward 1.75% in coming months.</li>\n <li><b>Real assets</b>: Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have significantly outperformed Global Listed Infrastructure (GLI) so far this year, to the extent that REITS are now expensive relative to GLI. Both should benefit from the pandemic recovery, but GLI has some catch-up potential. GLI should benefit from the global re-opening boosting domestic and international travel.<b>Commodities</b>have been the best-performing asset class this year amid strong demand and supply bottlenecks. The gains have been led by industrial metals and energy. The pace of increase should ease as supply issues are resolved, butcommodities should retain supportfrom above-trend global demand.</li>\n <li>The<b>U.S. dollar</b>has been supported this year by expectations for early Fed tightening and U.S. economic growth leadership. It should weaken as global growth leadership rotates away from the U.S. and toward Europe and other developed economies. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. The main beneficiary is likely to be the<b>euro</b>, which is still undervalued. We also believe<b>British sterling</b>and the economically sensitive<i>commodity currencies</i>—the<b>Australian dollar</b>, the<b>New Zealand dollar</b>and the<b>Canadian dollar</b>—can make further gains, although these currencies are not undervalued from a longer-term perspective.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>ASSET PERFORMANCE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2021</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e253becd38bd122d9fc211e7b0f583\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>1The Group of Seven is an inter-governmental political forum consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.</p>\n<p><b>Important Information</b></p>\n<p>The views in this Global Market Outlook report are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and are current as of September 27, 2021. While all material is deemed to be reliable, accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.</p>\n<p>Please remember that all investments carry some level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. They do not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns.</p>\n<p>Keep in mind that, like all investing, multi-asset investing does not assure a profit or protect against loss.</p>\n<p>No model or group of models can offer a precise estimate of future returns available from capital markets. We remain cautious that rational analytical techniques cannot predict extremes in financial behavior, such as periods of financial euphoria or investor panic. Our models rest on the assumptions of normal and rational financial behavior. Forecasting models are inherently uncertain, subject to change at any time based on a variety of factors and can be inaccurate. Russell believes that the utility of this information is highest in evaluating the relative relationships of various components of a globally diversified portfolio. As such, the models may offer insights into the prudence of over or under weighting those components from time to time or under periods of extreme dislocation. The models are explicitly not intended as market timing signals.</p>\n<p>Forecasting represents predictions of market prices and/or volume patterns utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment.</p>\n<p>Investment in global, international or emerging markets may be significantly affected by political or economic conditions and regulatory requirements in a particular country. Investments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation. Such securities may be less liquid and more volatile. Investments in emerging or developing markets involve exposure to economic structures that are generally less diverse and mature, and political systems with less stability than in more developed countries.</p>\n<p>Currency investing involves risks including fluctuations in currency values, whether the home currency or the foreign currency. They can either enhance or reduce the returns associated with foreign investments.</p>\n<p>Investments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation.</p>\n<p>Bond investors should carefully consider risks such as interest rate, credit, default and duration risks. Greater risk, such as increased volatility, limited liquidity, prepayment, non-payment and increased default risk, is inherent in portfolios that invest in high yield (“junk”) bonds or mortgage-backed securities, especially mortgage-backed securities with exposure to sub-prime mortgages. Generally, when interest rates rise, prices of fixed income securities fall. Interest rates in the United States are at, or near, historic lows, which may increase a Fund’s exposure to risks associated with rising rates. Investment in non-U.S. and emerging market securities is subject to the risk of currency fluctuations and to economic and political risks associated with such foreign countries.</p>\n<p>Performance quoted represents past performance and should not be viewed as a guarantee of future results.</p>\n<p>The FTSE 100 Index is a market-capitalization weighted index of UK-listed blue chip companies.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500® Index, or the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500, is a stock market index based on the market capitalizations of 500 large companies having common stock listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ.</p>\n<p>The MSCI EMU Index (European Economic and Monetary Union) captures large and mid cap representation across the 10 developed markets countries in the EMU. With 246 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization of the EMU.</p>\n<p>Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.</p>\n<p>Copyright © Russell Investments 2021. 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The general information contained on this website should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional. Persons outside the United States may find more information about products and services available within their jurisdictions by going to Russell Investments' Worldwide site.</p>\n<p>Russell Investments is committed to ensuring digital accessibility for people with disabilities. We are continually improving the user experience for everyone, and applying the relevant accessibility standards.</p>\n<p>Russell Investments' ownership is composed of a majority stake held by funds managed by TA Associates, with a significant minority stake held by funds managed by Reverence Capital Partners. Russell Investments' employees and Hamilton Lane Advisors, LLC also hold minority, non-controlling, ownership stakes.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2021 Global Market Outlook - Q4 Update: Growing Pains</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2021 Global Market Outlook - Q4 Update: Growing Pains\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-30 09:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457651-2021-global-market-outlook-q4-update-growing-pains><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows.\nThe reopening trade should resume in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457651-2021-global-market-outlook-q4-update-growing-pains\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457651-2021-global-market-outlook-q4-update-growing-pains","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104172212","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows.\nThe reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor.\nThe key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter.\n\nThe COVID-19 delta variant, inflation and central bank tapering are unnerving investors. We expect the pandemic-recovery trade to resume as inflation subsides, infection rates decline and tapering turns out to not equal tightening. Amid this backdrop, our outlook favors equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-U.S. stocks over U.S. stocks.\nIntroduction\nThe post-lockdown recovery has transitioned from energetic youthfulness to awkward adolescence. It’s still growing, although at a slower pace, and there are worries about what happens next, particularly about monetary policy and the outlook for inflation. Theinflation spikehas been larger than expected, but we still think it istransitory, caused by base effects from when the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) fell during the lockdown last year and by temporary supply bottlenecks. Inflation may remain high over the remainder of 2021 but should decline in early 2022. This means that even though the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to begin tapering back on asset purchases before the end of the year, rate hikes are unlikely before the second half of 2023.\nAnother worry is thehighly contagious COVID-19 delta variant. The evidence so far is that vaccines are effective in preventing serious COVID-19 infections. Vaccination rates are accelerating globally, and emerging economies are catching up with developed markets. Infection rates appear to have peaked globally in early September. This means the reopening of economies should continue over the remainder of 2021. The onset of winter in the northern hemisphere will be a test, but the rollout of booster vaccination shots should help prevent widescale renewed lockdowns.\nThe conclusions from our cycle, value and sentiment (CVS) investment decision-making process are broadly unchanged from our previous quarterly report. Global equities remain expensive, with the very expensive U.S. market offsetting better value elsewhere. Sentiment is slightly overbought, but not close to dangerous levels of euphoria. The strong cycle delivers a preference for equities over bonds for at least the next 12 months, despite expensive valuations. It also reinforces our preference for thevalue equity factor over the growth factorand for non-U.S. equities to outperform the U.S. market.\nCycle still in recovery phase\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows. Even so, we think the cycle is still in the recovery phase, although it is maturing. Despite strong growth, there is plenty of spare capacity. This can be seen in the employment-to-population ratio for prime-age workers in the United States. The chart below shows the ratio has recovered from the pandemic lows, but only to levels reached during the relatively mild recessions in the early 1990s and 2000s. We expect theU.S. labor-market recoveryshould still resemble a typical post-recession recovery over the next few quarters.\nU.S. EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO FOR PRIME-AGE WORKERS\n\nThe U.S. recovery, however, is more advanced than that of other developed economies. The following chart shows how far GDP has recovered, relative to the pre-COVID-19 peak in 2019. GDP is 0.8% higher in the U.S., although this level is still short relative to the pre-COVID-19 trend. GDP is 2.5% below 2019 levels in the euro area and 4.5% below in the United Kingdom. We expect more cyclical upside for economic growth outside the U.S., and this should allow market leadership to rotate toward the rest of the world.\nGDP IN Q2 2021 RELATIVE TO PRE-COVID-19 PEAK IN 2019\n\nTwo key indicators\nLast quarter, we listed two indicators that should offer a guide to the Fed’s expected reaction to the inflation spike.\nThe first is five-year/five-year breakeven inflation expectations, based on the pricing of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). This is the market’s forecast for average inflation over five years in five years’ time. It tells us that investors expect inflation will average 2.17% in the five years from late 2026 to late 2031. The TIPS yields are based on the CPI, while the Fed targets inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator. The two move together over time, but CPI inflation is generally around 0.25% higher than PCE inflation. A breakeven rate of 2.75% would suggest the market sees PCE inflation above 2.5% in five years’ time. Market inflation expectations are currently comfortably below the Fed’s worry point.\nWATCHPOINT INDICATOR #1: U.S. 5-YEAR/5-YEAR BREAKEVEN INFLATION RATE\n\nThe second indicator is the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker, and this has a less-comforting message about inflation risks. It reached 3.9% in August, which isclose to the 4% thresholdwhere we judge that the Fed will become concerned about the inflationary impact on the growth of wages. A breakdown shows that the spike has been mostly driven by wages for low-skilled, young people in the leisure and hospitality industry. This suggests the surge has been caused by temporary labor supply shortages and that wage pressures should subside as economic activity normalizes. This indicator, however, will be an important watchpoint over the next few months.\nWATCHPOINT INDICATOR #2: ATLANTA FED WAGE GROWTH TRACKER\n\nReopening trade still makes sense\nThe reopening trade, which lifts long-term interest rates and favors cyclical and value stocks over technology and growth stocks, worked well for several months following the vaccine announcement last November. Value outperformed growth and yield curves steepened. The trade has reversed in recent months, however, amid fears that the delta variant might derail the economic recovery. The impact has been magnified by short covering in bond markets as investors, who have been short or underweight, have been forced by the rally to buy back into the market, pushing bond yields even lower.\nThe reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor. Financial stocks comprise the largest sector in the MSCI World Value Index, and they should benefit from further yield-curve steepening, which boosts the profitability of banks. Long-term interest rates should rise as global growth remains above trend, delta-variant fears fade, the short squeeze unwinds and central banks begin tapering back on bond purchases.\nThe rotation in economic growth leadership away from the United States should also help the reopening trade. The rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks relative to the U.S., which has a higher weight to technology stocks.\nEmerging market (EM) equities have been poor performers since the vaccine announcement, but there are some encouraging signs. Initially, they were held back by the exposure to technology stocks in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the slow rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. More recently, they have come under pressure from the slowdown in the Chinese economy and theregulatory crackdown on Chinese tech companies. The vaccine rollout across emerging markets has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon improve the growth outlook. The path of Chinese regulation is harder to predict, but it is now largely priced in, with Chinese technology companies underperforming their global peers by nearly 50% from February 2021 through mid-September.\nThe resumption of the reopening trade should also result in U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has traded sideways since the vaccine announcement. It should weaken once investors have confidence that delta-variant risks are subsiding and realize that the Fed is likely to remain dovish as inflation risks decline. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. Dollar weakness should support the performance of non-U.S. markets, particularly emerging markets.\nRisks: variants, inflation, China weakness\nThe key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter. The evidence so far is that vaccinations are highly effective in preventing serious illness. In Israel, booster shots appear to have slowed the rate of new cases.\nAnother watchpoint is inflation and the response of central banks. Our expectation is that this year’s inflation spike is mostly transitory and that the major central banks, led by the Fed, are still two years from raising interest rates.\nFinally, there is the risk of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China.Credit growth has slowed this yearand the purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI) have trended lower. Monetary and fiscal policy have been eased, however, and senior officials have signaled that more stimulus is on the way. China policy direction and credit trends will be an important watchpoint over coming months.\nRegional snapshotsUnited States\nThe U.S. economy is likely to sustain above-trend growth into 2022. However, the easiest gains appear in the rear-view mirror at the end of the third quarter as the recovery phase of the business cycle matures. This is most visible for corporate earnings, where S&P 500® Index earnings-per-share already sit 20% above their previous cyclical high.\nStrong fundamentals have helped power the stock market to new highs. Early evidence that the delta-variant wave may be fading and the potential for greater vaccine access for children are positives for a more complete recovery in the quarters ahead. The Fedlooks poised to start tapering its asset purchasesaround the end of 2021. The timing of the first rate hike will then hinge on what happens to inflation next year. Our models suggest that inflation is likely to drop back below the Fed’s 2% target in 2022. If that is correct, the Fed is likely to remain on hold into the second half of 2023.\nWage inflation is a key risk to this view. It is running unusually strong for this stage of the cycle, and record hiring intentions from businesses could exhaust spare capacity in the year ahead. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise moderately from 1.37% in mid-September to 1.75% in coming months.\nFiscal stimulus negotiations continue to grab headlines in Washington, D.C. Thetax provisions in these billsare likely to be the most impactful for financial markets. We estimate thathigher corporate taxescould subtract about four percentage points from S&P 500 earnings growth in 2022. This could create volatility and opportunity in markets. Given our strong cyclical outlook, our bias continues to be arisk-onpreference for equities over bonds for the medium-term.\nEurozone\nEuro area growthslowed through the third quarter but looks on track for a return to above-trend growth over the fourth quarter and into 2022. Vaccination rates are high, and the euro area has more catch-up potential than other major economies, particularly the United States. The euro area is also set to receive more fiscal support than other regions, with the European Union’s pandemic recovery fund only just starting to disburse stimulus, which will provide significant support in southern Europe. Polls in advance of Germany’s federal election on Sept. 26 suggested the electorate was moving toward the political left, which means the new government is likely to support expansionary fiscal policy and a continued dovish stance by the European Central Bank (ECB).\nThe MSCI EMU Index, which reflects the European Economic and Monetary Union, has performed broadly in line with the S&P 500 so far in 2021. We think it has potential to outperform in coming quarters. Europe’s exposure to financials and cyclically sensitive sectors such as industrials, materials and energy, and its relatively small exposure to technology, gives it the potential to outperform as delta-variant fears subside, economic activity picks up and yield curves in Europe steepen.\nUnited Kingdom\nAs of mid-year, UK GDP was still nearly 4.5% below its pre-pandemic peak. We see plenty of scope for strong catch-up growth as borders are fully reopened and activity normalizes. Supply bottlenecks and labor shortages have triggered a sharp rise in underlying inflation and created concerns that the Bank of England (BoE) may start rate hikes in the first half of 2022. We think the BoE is unlikely to be that aggressive. We expect inflation to decline in early 2022 as supply constraints ease, which should convince the BoE to delay rate hikes.\nThe FTSE 100 Index is the cheapest of the major developed equity markets in late 2021, and this should help it reflect higher returns than other markets over the next decade. Around 70% of UK corporate earnings come from offshore, so one near-term risk is that further strengthening of British sterling dampens earnings growth. The other risks are mostly around policy missteps, for example, early tightening by the Bank of England.\nJapan\nThe Japanese economy is expected to get a shot in the arm as rising vaccination rates improve mobility and reduce the risk of further lockdowns, and as political leadership changes result in more fiscal stimulus: the Japanese election is due to be held before Nov. 28. Japanese equities look slightly more expensive than other regions such as the UK and Europe. We maintain our view that the Bank of Japan will significantly lag other central banks in normalizing policy.\nChina\nWe expect Chinese economic growth to berobust over the next 12 months, supported by a post-lockdown jump in consumer spending and incremental fiscal and monetary easing. Despite a big improvement in vaccination rates,COVID-19 outbreaks remain a riskgiven the Chinese government’s zero-tolerance approach. The major consumer technology companies have seen significant drops in stock prices recently due to more aggressive regulation. Some uncertainty remains around thepath of future regulation, especially as it relates to technology companies, and as a result we expect investors will remain cautious on Chinese equities in the coming months. The property market, particularly property developers as recently highlighted by Evergrande’s debt crisis, remains a risk that we are monitoring closely.\nCanada\nCanada leads the G71countries in terms of the vaccination rollout, which should minimize the risk of large-scale lockdowns over winter. The delta variant has taken an economic toll, however, with industry consensus projections now predicting 5% GDP growth in 2021 versus estimates of more than 6% just three months ago. Even so, growth remains above-trend and the odds of additional fiscal expenditures to support the economy have increased. This means that weaker growth due to COVID-19 is unlikely to change the Bank of Canada's (BoC) tightening bias.\nTapering of asset purchasesshould be complete by the end of the first quarter of 2022. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has indicated that the reinvestment phase of the bonds held by the central bank will commence once quantitative easing has ended. This should generate an estimated C$1 billion in weekly bond purchases, down from the current pace of C$2 billion. The BoC will likely only consider shrinking its balance sheet after it has started lifting interest rates. The BoC projects that the output gap will close sometime over the second half of 2022, and that rate hikes will be considered after economic slack has disappeared. We believe that the timeline may be a tad aggressive, and a delay to 2023 for liftoff is more likely. This would better align the Canadian central bank with its American counterpart.\nAustralia/New Zealand\nThe Australian economy is set to return to life, with lockdowns likely to be eased in October and November. Consumer and business balance sheets continue to look healthy, which should facilitate a strong recovery. The reopening of the international border in 2022 will provide a further boost. Fiscal policy has supported the economy through the downturn, and there is potential for further stimulus in the lead-up to the federal election, which is due before the end of 2022. The Reserve Bank of Australia has begun the process of tapering its bond-purchase program, but we expect that a rise in the cash rate is unlikely until at least the second half of 2023.\nNew Zealand’s most recent lockdown will drag on Q3 GDP, but similar to Australia, we expect a solid rebound as the economy reopens. The government aims to provide a vaccine to all adults by the end of 2021, after which borders will gradually reopen. This will provide a boost, particularly to tourism-exposed sectors. Despite having recently put off hiking interest rates due to the recent lockdown, we expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will start raising rates this year. Even though they have significantly underperformed global equities this year, New Zealand equities still screen as relatively expensive compared to other regions.\nAsset-class preferences\nOur cycle, value and sentiment investment decision-making process in late September 2021 has a moderately positive medium-term view on global equities. Value is expensive across most markets except for UK equities, which are near fair value. The cycle is risk-asset supportive for the medium-term. The major economies still have spare capacity and inflation pressures appear transitory, caused by COVID-19-related supply shortages. Rate hikes by the U.S. Fed seem unlikely before the second half of 2023. Sentiment, after reaching overbought levels earlier in the year, has returned to more neutral levels.\nCOMPOSITE CONTRARIAN INDICATOR: SENTIMENT SHIFTS TOWARD NEUTRAL\n\n\nWe prefernon-U.S. equitiesto U.S. equities. Stronger economic growth and steeper yield curves after the third-quarter slowdown should favor undervalued cyclical value stocks over expensive technology and growth stocks. Relative to the U.S., the rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks.\nEmerging markets equitieshave been relatively poor performers this year, but there are some encouraging signs. The vaccine rollout across EM has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon boost the economic growth outlook.China’s regulatory crackdownhas caused significant underperformance by Chinese technology companies, but this should be less of a headwind going forward now that it is priced in.\nHigh yieldandinvestment grade creditare expensive on a spread basis but have support from a positive cycle view that accommodates corporate profit growth and keeps default rates low. U.S. dollar-denominatedemerging markets debtis close to fair value in spread terms and will gain support on U.S. dollar weakness.\nGovernment bondsare expensive, and yields should come under upward pressure as output gaps close and central banks look to taper back asset purchases. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise toward 1.75% in coming months.\nReal assets: Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have significantly outperformed Global Listed Infrastructure (GLI) so far this year, to the extent that REITS are now expensive relative to GLI. Both should benefit from the pandemic recovery, but GLI has some catch-up potential. GLI should benefit from the global re-opening boosting domestic and international travel.Commoditieshave been the best-performing asset class this year amid strong demand and supply bottlenecks. The gains have been led by industrial metals and energy. The pace of increase should ease as supply issues are resolved, butcommodities should retain supportfrom above-trend global demand.\nTheU.S. dollarhas been supported this year by expectations for early Fed tightening and U.S. economic growth leadership. It should weaken as global growth leadership rotates away from the U.S. and toward Europe and other developed economies. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. The main beneficiary is likely to be theeuro, which is still undervalued. We also believeBritish sterlingand the economically sensitivecommodity currencies—theAustralian dollar, theNew Zealand dollarand theCanadian dollar—can make further gains, although these currencies are not undervalued from a longer-term perspective.\n\nASSET PERFORMANCE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2021\n\n1The Group of Seven is an inter-governmental political forum consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.\nImportant Information\nThe views in this Global Market Outlook report are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and are current as of September 27, 2021. While all material is deemed to be reliable, accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.\nPlease remember that all investments carry some level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. They do not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns.\nKeep in mind that, like all investing, multi-asset investing does not assure a profit or protect against loss.\nNo model or group of models can offer a precise estimate of future returns available from capital markets. We remain cautious that rational analytical techniques cannot predict extremes in financial behavior, such as periods of financial euphoria or investor panic. Our models rest on the assumptions of normal and rational financial behavior. Forecasting models are inherently uncertain, subject to change at any time based on a variety of factors and can be inaccurate. Russell believes that the utility of this information is highest in evaluating the relative relationships of various components of a globally diversified portfolio. As such, the models may offer insights into the prudence of over or under weighting those components from time to time or under periods of extreme dislocation. The models are explicitly not intended as market timing signals.\nForecasting represents predictions of market prices and/or volume patterns utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment.\nInvestment in global, international or emerging markets may be significantly affected by political or economic conditions and regulatory requirements in a particular country. Investments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation. Such securities may be less liquid and more volatile. Investments in emerging or developing markets involve exposure to economic structures that are generally less diverse and mature, and political systems with less stability than in more developed countries.\nCurrency investing involves risks including fluctuations in currency values, whether the home currency or the foreign currency. They can either enhance or reduce the returns associated with foreign investments.\nInvestments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation.\nBond investors should carefully consider risks such as interest rate, credit, default and duration risks. Greater risk, such as increased volatility, limited liquidity, prepayment, non-payment and increased default risk, is inherent in portfolios that invest in high yield (“junk”) bonds or mortgage-backed securities, especially mortgage-backed securities with exposure to sub-prime mortgages. Generally, when interest rates rise, prices of fixed income securities fall. Interest rates in the United States are at, or near, historic lows, which may increase a Fund’s exposure to risks associated with rising rates. 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Russell Investments' employees and Hamilton Lane Advisors, LLC also hold minority, non-controlling, ownership stakes.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":510,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862819411,"gmtCreate":1632868177453,"gmtModify":1632868177587,"author":{"id":"3583974243419968","authorId":"3583974243419968","name":"klo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d3dcf83877ea1c1bf83a2ba2b540df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"J","listText":"J","text":"J","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862819411","repostId":"1112583450","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112583450","pubTimestamp":1632842868,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112583450?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 23:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Electronic Arts: Strong Fundamentals Continue Amid Dip Buying Opportunity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112583450","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nElectronic Arts Fiscal Q1 results were solid compared to a strong 2020 period.\nEA recently ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Electronic Arts Fiscal Q1 results were solid compared to a strong 2020 period.</li>\n <li>EA recently delayed its big fall release Battlefield 2042, but the move provides a strong buying opportunity.</li>\n <li>EA has strengthened its mobile gaming talent over the past year and has a stronger pipeline for mobile revenue than ever.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc8344f36d2d49a7e957c065340be2cb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Electronic Arts (EA) is a household name with great fundamentals. 70%+ long-term margins and stable revenue streams have led to strong shareholder returns over time. The stock has underperformed since mid-2018 but now the gaming companies are being priced near value stock levels. They have recently had a significant dip in the stock price, due to the&nbsp;delay of their big release of the year, Battlefield 2042 to November 19th. This is giving a great entry point into EA stock, with most of those sales still able to be captured with a later release date. EA has a great technical setup with the stock pushing near its all-time high of $148.97 several times in 2021 since first reaching the level in mid-2018. As you can see below, revenue has increased significantly to 5.7B in the past year, with 2022 GAAP revenue guidance at $6.8 Billion, yet the stock is still consolidating since mid-2018. This gives potential for an outsized move upwards when those highs are broken. Higher lows have been encouraging and this may be the last significant 15%+ dip before breaking out to all-time highs.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7506972cadc0be0701c77d20ad10d4ff\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"447\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Great Fiscal Q1</b></p>\n<p>Electronic Arts had a strong&nbsp;Fiscal Q1, even with comparison to a very strong 2020 period. Net bookings which are the most accurate indicator of business performance were up 3% over the prior year to $6.136 Billion USD. Guidance for 2022 was to $7.4 Billion in billings - or 20.6% growth. Revenue follows billings so we will see Revenue and earnings flow through next year from the strong results of late. The sports franchises of Madden, NHL, and especially FIFA continue to lead the way for EA with consistent performance. The sports franchises had a combined 140 million players in the past year, with over 31 million playing the newest FIFA 2021 iteration. Sports are predictable and popular games, something that adds stability to revenue and earnings over time. FUT matches are still growing at a strong pace with 48% growth over last year in Q1. Battlefield's delay may hurt the billings number as some sales will be lost to competitors such as Call of Duty Vanguard from Activision Blizzard (ATVI). However, game delays in recent years have not negatively impacted sales much for those titles. These delays due to tough deadlines are very commonplace in the industry and I believe the negative reaction in EA stock on a one-month delay is overdone. All the while, Apex Legends has seen a resurgence with many players going back to the game and it proved to be a more lasting title than many had expected. The game actually had the most players ever in the recent season, impressive for a game that has been out for several years now.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63da6c1ee87d6951184b6ba11ea0ab01\" tg-width=\"382\" tg-height=\"421\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>As you can see above, the fiscal year billings growth has been lumpy but overall, I expect high single digits to low double digits growth over time. The increase to FY 2021 was at least partially due to the coronavirus, although the environment continues to be very supportive there. Restrictions on travel and other entertainment worldwide continue to be a significant tailwind on gaming hours played. Live services which include microtransactions and game passes continue to become a larger part of EA's business. FIFA's success is a big portion of this, and EA announces 4 seasons for Battlefield 2042 per year with passes to purchase. This should give a solid income stream for the years after the game's release. The announced Battlefield Portal allowing people to create new maps using old releases seems great to foster engagement in paid season passes. The new Hazard Zone mode adds additional content as well with an Escape from Tarkov-like squad survival scenario. One thing is clear - EA put more effort into Battlefield 2042 and keeping it interesting for 2+ years than the past few series titles. EA confirmed it would be an every other year release, with things like Battlefield Portal likely working with multiple releases. These, plus the new mobile Battlefield game that's to come, make me more bullish for the future to take some share from Call of Duty. Some investors may be worried about the $7.4 Billion billings number for Fiscal 2022 with the game delay, but matching that bar should give the stock a very significant boost over the next 12 months.</p>\n<p>The company does also have a significant share buyback program which is helping to support the stock during any dips. EA bought back 976 million in stock over the past year - just under 3% of the total market cap of 36 Billion US. Expect more significant buyback activity in the coming weeks with the stock having dipped again due to the Battlefield 2042 delay. EA also pays a small dividend at 17 cents per quarter. While this is a yield of around 0.5%, it can grow significantly over time and shows the ongoing commitment to shareholders by the management team.</p>\n<p><b>Continued Growth in Mobile</b></p>\n<p>EA has continued to try to catch up to its competition like Activision Blizzard in the mobile area. EA had already purchased Glu Mobile earlier this year to expand their growing stable of casual mobile games. Now, EA recently completed the&nbsp;purchase of Playdemic&nbsp;for 1.4 Billion, the makers of golf clash. According to Sensor Tower, during the strong pandemic period,Golf Clash did an impressive $132.8 million USD of revenue. 10x sales is a reasonable price to pay for a game that has a very strong and growing userbase and a talented team behind it. EA is thinking long term with Playdemic likely to work on other IP from EA's stable in the coming years. They hinted on the conference call at a global Madden or FIFA mobile game where they have the license already - a tantalizing thought for investors. Mobile is growing for EA with 16% growth over 2019 levels in 2021, but they continue to invest heavily in this area. Casual games have a very long tail and are among the most profitable due to the lower operating expenses associated with the game creation. EA has also announced they are making a mobile game for the popular Apex Legends Battle Royale game, as well as the beforementioned one for Battlefield. This is likely after having seen Activision succeed with its mobile Call of Duty game, and the fact they haven't monetized many franchises in mobile yet. This is a chance for EA to really grow mobile as a portion of the business, with it only representing 13.5% of bookings over the last year. However, the growth rate for mobile will accelerate with it at 20% in Fiscal Q1 and likely to provide a big boost in coming years.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>The recent dip is an excellent buying opportunity for those that don't own any EA stock. The stock has been pushing against its all-time high level near 150, and when it breaks through to the upside should see significant gains. It is trading at a very inexpensive 16x Forward P/E - giving it near value stock status in the current market. Any additional lockdowns or restrictions would be bullish for EA as well, as many young people continue to spend heavily on gaming. EA has set itself up well for the long term, by focusing on their weakness in the mobile category with acquisitions and use of existing IP. Mobile is an area where EA has significantly lagged its major competition, but the moves made in 2021 will pay big dividends in future years - with shareholders likely to benefit.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Electronic Arts: Strong Fundamentals Continue Amid Dip Buying Opportunity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nElectronic Arts: Strong Fundamentals Continue Amid Dip Buying Opportunity\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-28 23:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457473-electronic-arts-strong-fundamentals-continue-amid-dip-buying-opportunity><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nElectronic Arts Fiscal Q1 results were solid compared to a strong 2020 period.\nEA recently delayed its big fall release Battlefield 2042, but the move provides a strong buying opportunity.\nEA...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457473-electronic-arts-strong-fundamentals-continue-amid-dip-buying-opportunity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"EA":"艺电"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457473-electronic-arts-strong-fundamentals-continue-amid-dip-buying-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112583450","content_text":"Summary\n\nElectronic Arts Fiscal Q1 results were solid compared to a strong 2020 period.\nEA recently delayed its big fall release Battlefield 2042, but the move provides a strong buying opportunity.\nEA has strengthened its mobile gaming talent over the past year and has a stronger pipeline for mobile revenue than ever.\n\nSundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nElectronic Arts (EA) is a household name with great fundamentals. 70%+ long-term margins and stable revenue streams have led to strong shareholder returns over time. The stock has underperformed since mid-2018 but now the gaming companies are being priced near value stock levels. They have recently had a significant dip in the stock price, due to the delay of their big release of the year, Battlefield 2042 to November 19th. This is giving a great entry point into EA stock, with most of those sales still able to be captured with a later release date. EA has a great technical setup with the stock pushing near its all-time high of $148.97 several times in 2021 since first reaching the level in mid-2018. As you can see below, revenue has increased significantly to 5.7B in the past year, with 2022 GAAP revenue guidance at $6.8 Billion, yet the stock is still consolidating since mid-2018. This gives potential for an outsized move upwards when those highs are broken. Higher lows have been encouraging and this may be the last significant 15%+ dip before breaking out to all-time highs.\nData by YCharts\nGreat Fiscal Q1\nElectronic Arts had a strong Fiscal Q1, even with comparison to a very strong 2020 period. Net bookings which are the most accurate indicator of business performance were up 3% over the prior year to $6.136 Billion USD. Guidance for 2022 was to $7.4 Billion in billings - or 20.6% growth. Revenue follows billings so we will see Revenue and earnings flow through next year from the strong results of late. The sports franchises of Madden, NHL, and especially FIFA continue to lead the way for EA with consistent performance. The sports franchises had a combined 140 million players in the past year, with over 31 million playing the newest FIFA 2021 iteration. Sports are predictable and popular games, something that adds stability to revenue and earnings over time. FUT matches are still growing at a strong pace with 48% growth over last year in Q1. Battlefield's delay may hurt the billings number as some sales will be lost to competitors such as Call of Duty Vanguard from Activision Blizzard (ATVI). However, game delays in recent years have not negatively impacted sales much for those titles. These delays due to tough deadlines are very commonplace in the industry and I believe the negative reaction in EA stock on a one-month delay is overdone. All the while, Apex Legends has seen a resurgence with many players going back to the game and it proved to be a more lasting title than many had expected. The game actually had the most players ever in the recent season, impressive for a game that has been out for several years now.\n\nAs you can see above, the fiscal year billings growth has been lumpy but overall, I expect high single digits to low double digits growth over time. The increase to FY 2021 was at least partially due to the coronavirus, although the environment continues to be very supportive there. Restrictions on travel and other entertainment worldwide continue to be a significant tailwind on gaming hours played. Live services which include microtransactions and game passes continue to become a larger part of EA's business. FIFA's success is a big portion of this, and EA announces 4 seasons for Battlefield 2042 per year with passes to purchase. This should give a solid income stream for the years after the game's release. The announced Battlefield Portal allowing people to create new maps using old releases seems great to foster engagement in paid season passes. The new Hazard Zone mode adds additional content as well with an Escape from Tarkov-like squad survival scenario. One thing is clear - EA put more effort into Battlefield 2042 and keeping it interesting for 2+ years than the past few series titles. EA confirmed it would be an every other year release, with things like Battlefield Portal likely working with multiple releases. These, plus the new mobile Battlefield game that's to come, make me more bullish for the future to take some share from Call of Duty. Some investors may be worried about the $7.4 Billion billings number for Fiscal 2022 with the game delay, but matching that bar should give the stock a very significant boost over the next 12 months.\nThe company does also have a significant share buyback program which is helping to support the stock during any dips. EA bought back 976 million in stock over the past year - just under 3% of the total market cap of 36 Billion US. Expect more significant buyback activity in the coming weeks with the stock having dipped again due to the Battlefield 2042 delay. EA also pays a small dividend at 17 cents per quarter. While this is a yield of around 0.5%, it can grow significantly over time and shows the ongoing commitment to shareholders by the management team.\nContinued Growth in Mobile\nEA has continued to try to catch up to its competition like Activision Blizzard in the mobile area. EA had already purchased Glu Mobile earlier this year to expand their growing stable of casual mobile games. Now, EA recently completed the purchase of Playdemic for 1.4 Billion, the makers of golf clash. According to Sensor Tower, during the strong pandemic period,Golf Clash did an impressive $132.8 million USD of revenue. 10x sales is a reasonable price to pay for a game that has a very strong and growing userbase and a talented team behind it. EA is thinking long term with Playdemic likely to work on other IP from EA's stable in the coming years. They hinted on the conference call at a global Madden or FIFA mobile game where they have the license already - a tantalizing thought for investors. Mobile is growing for EA with 16% growth over 2019 levels in 2021, but they continue to invest heavily in this area. Casual games have a very long tail and are among the most profitable due to the lower operating expenses associated with the game creation. EA has also announced they are making a mobile game for the popular Apex Legends Battle Royale game, as well as the beforementioned one for Battlefield. This is likely after having seen Activision succeed with its mobile Call of Duty game, and the fact they haven't monetized many franchises in mobile yet. This is a chance for EA to really grow mobile as a portion of the business, with it only representing 13.5% of bookings over the last year. However, the growth rate for mobile will accelerate with it at 20% in Fiscal Q1 and likely to provide a big boost in coming years.\nConclusion\nThe recent dip is an excellent buying opportunity for those that don't own any EA stock. The stock has been pushing against its all-time high level near 150, and when it breaks through to the upside should see significant gains. It is trading at a very inexpensive 16x Forward P/E - giving it near value stock status in the current market. Any additional lockdowns or restrictions would be bullish for EA as well, as many young people continue to spend heavily on gaming. EA has set itself up well for the long term, by focusing on their weakness in the mobile category with acquisitions and use of existing IP. Mobile is an area where EA has significantly lagged its major competition, but the moves made in 2021 will pay big dividends in future years - with shareholders likely to benefit.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862922677,"gmtCreate":1632831835535,"gmtModify":1632831835615,"author":{"id":"3583974243419968","authorId":"3583974243419968","name":"klo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d3dcf83877ea1c1bf83a2ba2b540df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"J","listText":"J","text":"J","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862922677","repostId":"2170705176","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2170705176","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1632830390,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2170705176?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 19:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Barilla, Unilever's Algida team up to sell ice cream, snacks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2170705176","media":"Reuters","summary":"MILAN (Reuters) - Italian food company Barilla and Unilever's brand Algida have signed a strategic p","content":"<p>MILAN (Reuters) - Italian food company Barilla and Unilever's brand Algida have signed a strategic partnership to sell ice cream and snacks in Italy, the two groups said on Tuesday.</p>\n<p>Barilla, whose Gocciole biscuits are the best sellers in Italy, said the partnership would increase demand for its cookie and snack brands especially in the summer season.</p>\n<p>It will also help the group be more competitive in selling both sweet and salted snacks in the out-of-home channels where it competes with large foreign groups and chocolate confectioner Ferrero.</p>\n<p>\"We are convinced that the ice cream market offers interesting prospects and we know that we have brands and products that are of great interest to the Italian consumer,\" Barilla's Head of Italy Region Francesco Del Porto said.</p>\n<p>\"Our ambition is also to be increasingly present in the out-of-home sector, thanks to the Unilever Group, which has very long experience and an extensive distribution network.\"</p>\n<p>Ice creams developed together with Cornetto-seller Algida will build on the successful launch of Barilla's cookies filled with chocolate spread and the sale of cereal bars, which have built the Parma-based group's presence in the snack segment.</p>\n<p>The partnership will be operational from January 2022 and will initially cover Italy, with the aim of expanding to other European countries, the two groups said.</p>\n<p>For Unilever the agreement is an opportunity to offer new products in a sector that is increasingly competitive.</p>\n<p>In 2017 Unilever clinched a similar alliance with Barilla's rival Ferrero, helping the confectioner enter the frozen sweet sector both in Italy and abroad.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Barilla, Unilever's Algida team up to sell ice cream, snacks</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBarilla, Unilever's Algida team up to sell ice cream, snacks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-28 19:59</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>MILAN (Reuters) - Italian food company Barilla and Unilever's brand Algida have signed a strategic partnership to sell ice cream and snacks in Italy, the two groups said on Tuesday.</p>\n<p>Barilla, whose Gocciole biscuits are the best sellers in Italy, said the partnership would increase demand for its cookie and snack brands especially in the summer season.</p>\n<p>It will also help the group be more competitive in selling both sweet and salted snacks in the out-of-home channels where it competes with large foreign groups and chocolate confectioner Ferrero.</p>\n<p>\"We are convinced that the ice cream market offers interesting prospects and we know that we have brands and products that are of great interest to the Italian consumer,\" Barilla's Head of Italy Region Francesco Del Porto said.</p>\n<p>\"Our ambition is also to be increasingly present in the out-of-home sector, thanks to the Unilever Group, which has very long experience and an extensive distribution network.\"</p>\n<p>Ice creams developed together with Cornetto-seller Algida will build on the successful launch of Barilla's cookies filled with chocolate spread and the sale of cereal bars, which have built the Parma-based group's presence in the snack segment.</p>\n<p>The partnership will be operational from January 2022 and will initially cover Italy, with the aim of expanding to other European countries, the two groups said.</p>\n<p>For Unilever the agreement is an opportunity to offer new products in a sector that is increasingly competitive.</p>\n<p>In 2017 Unilever clinched a similar alliance with Barilla's rival Ferrero, helping the confectioner enter the frozen sweet sector both in Italy and abroad.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UNLYF":"Unilever, PLC","UL":"联合利华(英国)"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2170705176","content_text":"MILAN (Reuters) - Italian food company Barilla and Unilever's brand Algida have signed a strategic partnership to sell ice cream and snacks in Italy, the two groups said on Tuesday.\nBarilla, whose Gocciole biscuits are the best sellers in Italy, said the partnership would increase demand for its cookie and snack brands especially in the summer season.\nIt will also help the group be more competitive in selling both sweet and salted snacks in the out-of-home channels where it competes with large foreign groups and chocolate confectioner Ferrero.\n\"We are convinced that the ice cream market offers interesting prospects and we know that we have brands and products that are of great interest to the Italian consumer,\" Barilla's Head of Italy Region Francesco Del Porto said.\n\"Our ambition is also to be increasingly present in the out-of-home sector, thanks to the Unilever Group, which has very long experience and an extensive distribution network.\"\nIce creams developed together with Cornetto-seller Algida will build on the successful launch of Barilla's cookies filled with chocolate spread and the sale of cereal bars, which have built the Parma-based group's presence in the snack segment.\nThe partnership will be operational from January 2022 and will initially cover Italy, with the aim of expanding to other European countries, the two groups said.\nFor Unilever the agreement is an opportunity to offer new products in a sector that is increasingly competitive.\nIn 2017 Unilever clinched a similar alliance with Barilla's rival Ferrero, helping the confectioner enter the frozen sweet sector both in Italy and abroad.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":628,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}