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Henryong
2021-06-18
哈哈哈
抱歉，原内容已删除
Henryong
2021-07-01
like
提醒：因美国独立日假期，7月5日美股全天休市
Henryong
2021-06-28
pls like
港交所下午一点半将恢复交易
Henryong
2021-07-13
zan
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Henryong
2021-07-07
👍
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Henryong
2021-07-04
😊
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Henryong
2021-06-30
👍
美联储笔记：美国加息是否会影响新兴市场经济体稳定？
Henryong
2021-06-19
Please like，thank you
Henryong
2021-06-18
T，T，T
Henryong
2021-06-17
帮忙回复 谢谢
Henryong
2021-06-17
可以回复我吗？谢谢
Henryong
2021-06-17
想要T👍
Henryong
2021-06-16
想要T[微笑]
Henryong
2021-06-15
回复评论➕点赞 谢谢
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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n提醒：因美国独立日假期，7月5日美股全天休市\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-30 10:48</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。</b></p>\n<p>港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。</p>\n<p><b>背景简介：</b></p>\n<p><b>独立日</b>是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月4日大陆会议在费城正式通过《独立宣言》。美国的独立日，与宗教、民俗节日一样隆重，老百姓在节日前清洁院落，装饰家居，悬挂国旗。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21dd6adec6b29203b5bca22347419441","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168133884","content_text":"因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月4日大陆会议在费城正式通过《独立宣言》。美国的独立日，与宗教、民俗节日一样隆重，老百姓在节日前清洁院落，装饰家居，悬挂国旗。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151919906,"gmtCreate":1625061395005,"gmtModify":1633945324187,"author":{"id":"3583616639231023","authorId":"3583616639231023","name":"Henryong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8784225fbd5d54cd129efbe31bbeb2cf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583616639231023","authorIdStr":"3583616639231023"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151919906","repostId":"1108833039","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108833039","pubTimestamp":1625057247,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108833039?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-30 20:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储笔记：美国加息是否会影响新兴市场经济体稳定？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108833039","media":"人民币交易与研究","summary":"美联储近日公布最新笔记，分析了美国货币政策对新兴市场的金融溢出效应。相关研究结果帮助解释了最近几个月美国国债收益率的上升对新兴市场经济体金融状况的影响为何相当温和：因为收益率上升似乎主要是受到美国增长","content":"<p>美联储近日公布最新笔记，分析了美国货币政策对新兴市场的金融溢出效应。相关研究结果帮助解释了最近几个月美国国债收益率的上升对新兴市场经济体金融状况的影响为何相当温和：因为收益率上升似乎主要是受到美国增长前景改善的推动。话虽如此，如果未来加息反映了对通胀的担忧加剧，脆弱的新兴市场可能会面临压力。</p>\n<p>美国利率上升通常被认为对新兴市场经济体(EMEs)是个坏消息，因为它们增加了债务负担，引发资本外流，而且通常会导致金融环境收紧，从而可能引发金融危机。事实上，如下面所示，1980年代初沃尔克抗通胀时期联邦基金利率的上升(黑线)与新兴市场国家金融危机发生率的急剧上升(绿条)相关。然而，在其他情况下，比如2000年代中期，新兴市场经济体几乎没有遇到什么困难就经受住了美国利率上升的冲击。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0371fc370fb1dfcdf6532d95bb634ac\" tg-width=\"769\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>美国货币政策对新兴市场的所谓“溢出效应”为何存在差异？我们最近的研究表明，美国货币政策对新兴市场的金融溢出效应取决于两个关键因素：</p>\n<p>第一个是美国利率变化的原因。由良好的增长前景推动的利率上升，可能对新兴金融市场产生相对良性的影响，因为美国贸易伙伴进口需求增加带来的国内生产总值(GDP)增长，以及投资者信心增强带来的好处都应该会抵消加息的成本。相反，如果加息主要是由于对通胀的担忧或美联储政策转向鹰派(我们将其统一称为货币消息)，则可能对新兴市场造成更大的破坏。</p>\n<p>影响美国货币政策溢出效应的第二个关键因素是，新兴市场国家自身的状况；宏观经济脆弱性较高的经济体的金融状况往往对美国利率的上升更为敏感。</p>\n<p>我们的研究结果有助于解释为什么最近几个月美国国债收益率的上升对新兴市场经济体金融状况的影响相当温和。尽管近期通胀数据有所上扬，但这在很大程度上可能是由于对美国经济迅速复苏的预期升温所致，这将有利于全球经济的整体发展。此外,尽管近年来新兴市场经济体债务显著增长，并且因大流行病暴发而加剧，但宏观经济脆弱性仍然低于1990年代和1980年代这些动荡年代：宏观经济政策更审慎，货币在应对危机时更灵活，金融领域也更富有弹性。</p>\n<p>在本报告的其余部分，我们将总结上述发现背后的研究，并提出关于较长期美国国债收益率上升对新兴市场经济体金融状况影响的新证据。我们首先围绕两种不同的事件——联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议和美国就业报告——观察一个小时的窗口期内10年期美国国债收益率的变化，然后我们将FOMC会议和就业报告分类，根据它们主要传达的是增长消息(即关于未来增长前景的信息)，还是货币消息(即关于未来通胀或美联储的反应机制的信息)。</p>\n<p>为了做到这一点，我们研究了标普500指数的同步变动。因此，如果10年期美国国债收益率和标普500指数走势一致，那么FOMC的公告和非农就业数据将被视为主要传达经济增长消息。例如，FOMC的沟通增加了投资者对美国经济增长的信心，可能导致美国国债收益率和股票价格携手上涨，一份表明增长和盈利前景不佳的非常疲弱的就业报告则可能导致收益率和股价下跌。图2中蓝色圆点散点图显示了自2010年以来FOMC所有会议和就业报告引发的10年期美国国债收益率和标普500指数变化的组合，我们将这些数据归类为主要传达增长的消息。这些数据分别占FOMC会议和就业报告的三分之一还多。</p>\n<p>相比之下，如果10年期美国国债收益率和标普500指数在会议后走势相反，我们就将FOMC会议和就业报告视为主要传达货币政策的消息。例如，FOMC宣布通胀压力上升，或许会被解读为政策立场更趋鹰派，这可能推高美国国债收益率，而压低标普500指数，因为实际贴现率上升会对股票估值构成压力。或者，一份就业报告可能会导致收益率下降，但股价上涨，因为投资者可能认为它的疲弱程度足以避免美联储未来收紧货币政策。图2中红色菱形散点图显示了我们将其归类为主要传达货币消息的观察结果。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac675aef97e9cb91189cd5b73ba596f\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>有了这一分类，我们接下来估计新兴市场资产价格--本币债券收益率、股票指数、信用违约互换(CDS)息差和货币--对美国国债收益率走势的反应。我们分别对这四种资产价格与10年期美国国债收益率在FOMC会议和就业报告前后的变化进行面板回归分析，利用一个22个新兴市场经济体从2010年1月至3月22日的样本。我们允许估计反应基于以下情况而有所不同：(1)FOMC或就业报告是根据上述方法归类为传达增长还是货币消息；(2)事件爆发前新兴市场经济体自身的宏观经济脆弱性。为了量化新兴市场经济体的脆弱性，我们使用了Ahmed等人(2017)开发的一种复合衡量方法，该方法结合了六个指标的信息：通胀、经常账户赤字、国际储备、政府债务、外债和私营部门信贷增长。</p>\n<p>我们的主要结果显示在图3中，该图显示了10年期美国国债收益率上升100个基点对新兴市场经济体资产价格的影响。蓝条表示增长消息的溢出效应，红条表示货币消息的溢出效应。这些图表充分说明了我们的两个重要发现：</p>\n<p>(1) 货币消息驱动下的国债收益率变化对新兴市场经济体资产价格的影响要比增长消息驱动下的收益率变化大得多；</p>\n<p>(2) 相对于不那么脆弱的经济体，脆弱经济体的资产价格对美国国债收益率变动更为敏感。货币政策消息推动的收益率上升对较为脆弱的经济体造成了沉重打击：本币债券收益率的升幅是美国国债收益率升幅的两倍多，CDS息差飙升，股价和货币崩溃。相反，当美国国债收益率上升反映的是增长消息时，对新兴市场经济体金融状况的影响一般是有限的，从统计角度讲，在大多数情况下几乎为零。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e50ddae97e535c72e0727c5a8031a6e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"1126\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>综上所述，美国国债收益率上升可能导致新兴市场经济体金融状况明显收紧，但这种影响在很大程度上取决于收益率上升的驱动因素和新兴市场经济体的国内状况。我们的研究结果有助于解释今年迄今美国国债收益率上升对新兴市场的金融溢出效应为何有限，这是因为收益率上升似乎主要是受到美国增长前景改善的推动。话虽如此，如果未来加息反映了对通胀的担忧加剧，脆弱的新兴市场可能会面临压力。</p>","source":"lsy1574157197600","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储笔记：美国加息是否会影响新兴市场经济体稳定？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储笔记：美国加息是否会影响新兴市场经济体稳定？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-30 20:47 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ZTDv9OVSEz0gDGON3XgWgg><strong>人民币交易与研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储近日公布最新笔记，分析了美国货币政策对新兴市场的金融溢出效应。相关研究结果帮助解释了最近几个月美国国债收益率的上升对新兴市场经济体金融状况的影响为何相当温和：因为收益率上升似乎主要是受到美国增长前景改善的推动。话虽如此，如果未来加息反映了对通胀的担忧加剧，脆弱的新兴市场可能会面临压力。\n美国利率上升通常被认为对新兴市场经济体(EMEs)是个坏消息，因为它们增加了债务负担，引发资本外流，而且...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ZTDv9OVSEz0gDGON3XgWgg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指反向ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ZTDv9OVSEz0gDGON3XgWgg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108833039","content_text":"美联储近日公布最新笔记，分析了美国货币政策对新兴市场的金融溢出效应。相关研究结果帮助解释了最近几个月美国国债收益率的上升对新兴市场经济体金融状况的影响为何相当温和：因为收益率上升似乎主要是受到美国增长前景改善的推动。话虽如此，如果未来加息反映了对通胀的担忧加剧，脆弱的新兴市场可能会面临压力。\n美国利率上升通常被认为对新兴市场经济体(EMEs)是个坏消息，因为它们增加了债务负担，引发资本外流，而且通常会导致金融环境收紧，从而可能引发金融危机。事实上，如下面所示，1980年代初沃尔克抗通胀时期联邦基金利率的上升(黑线)与新兴市场国家金融危机发生率的急剧上升(绿条)相关。然而，在其他情况下，比如2000年代中期，新兴市场经济体几乎没有遇到什么困难就经受住了美国利率上升的冲击。\n\n美国货币政策对新兴市场的所谓“溢出效应”为何存在差异？我们最近的研究表明，美国货币政策对新兴市场的金融溢出效应取决于两个关键因素：\n第一个是美国利率变化的原因。由良好的增长前景推动的利率上升，可能对新兴金融市场产生相对良性的影响，因为美国贸易伙伴进口需求增加带来的国内生产总值(GDP)增长，以及投资者信心增强带来的好处都应该会抵消加息的成本。相反，如果加息主要是由于对通胀的担忧或美联储政策转向鹰派(我们将其统一称为货币消息)，则可能对新兴市场造成更大的破坏。\n影响美国货币政策溢出效应的第二个关键因素是，新兴市场国家自身的状况；宏观经济脆弱性较高的经济体的金融状况往往对美国利率的上升更为敏感。\n我们的研究结果有助于解释为什么最近几个月美国国债收益率的上升对新兴市场经济体金融状况的影响相当温和。尽管近期通胀数据有所上扬，但这在很大程度上可能是由于对美国经济迅速复苏的预期升温所致，这将有利于全球经济的整体发展。此外,尽管近年来新兴市场经济体债务显著增长，并且因大流行病暴发而加剧，但宏观经济脆弱性仍然低于1990年代和1980年代这些动荡年代：宏观经济政策更审慎，货币在应对危机时更灵活，金融领域也更富有弹性。\n在本报告的其余部分，我们将总结上述发现背后的研究，并提出关于较长期美国国债收益率上升对新兴市场经济体金融状况影响的新证据。我们首先围绕两种不同的事件——联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议和美国就业报告——观察一个小时的窗口期内10年期美国国债收益率的变化，然后我们将FOMC会议和就业报告分类，根据它们主要传达的是增长消息(即关于未来增长前景的信息)，还是货币消息(即关于未来通胀或美联储的反应机制的信息)。\n为了做到这一点，我们研究了标普500指数的同步变动。因此，如果10年期美国国债收益率和标普500指数走势一致，那么FOMC的公告和非农就业数据将被视为主要传达经济增长消息。例如，FOMC的沟通增加了投资者对美国经济增长的信心，可能导致美国国债收益率和股票价格携手上涨，一份表明增长和盈利前景不佳的非常疲弱的就业报告则可能导致收益率和股价下跌。图2中蓝色圆点散点图显示了自2010年以来FOMC所有会议和就业报告引发的10年期美国国债收益率和标普500指数变化的组合，我们将这些数据归类为主要传达增长的消息。这些数据分别占FOMC会议和就业报告的三分之一还多。\n相比之下，如果10年期美国国债收益率和标普500指数在会议后走势相反，我们就将FOMC会议和就业报告视为主要传达货币政策的消息。例如，FOMC宣布通胀压力上升，或许会被解读为政策立场更趋鹰派，这可能推高美国国债收益率，而压低标普500指数，因为实际贴现率上升会对股票估值构成压力。或者，一份就业报告可能会导致收益率下降，但股价上涨，因为投资者可能认为它的疲弱程度足以避免美联储未来收紧货币政策。图2中红色菱形散点图显示了我们将其归类为主要传达货币消息的观察结果。\n\n有了这一分类，我们接下来估计新兴市场资产价格--本币债券收益率、股票指数、信用违约互换(CDS)息差和货币--对美国国债收益率走势的反应。我们分别对这四种资产价格与10年期美国国债收益率在FOMC会议和就业报告前后的变化进行面板回归分析，利用一个22个新兴市场经济体从2010年1月至3月22日的样本。我们允许估计反应基于以下情况而有所不同：(1)FOMC或就业报告是根据上述方法归类为传达增长还是货币消息；(2)事件爆发前新兴市场经济体自身的宏观经济脆弱性。为了量化新兴市场经济体的脆弱性，我们使用了Ahmed等人(2017)开发的一种复合衡量方法，该方法结合了六个指标的信息：通胀、经常账户赤字、国际储备、政府债务、外债和私营部门信贷增长。\n我们的主要结果显示在图3中，该图显示了10年期美国国债收益率上升100个基点对新兴市场经济体资产价格的影响。蓝条表示增长消息的溢出效应，红条表示货币消息的溢出效应。这些图表充分说明了我们的两个重要发现：\n(1) 货币消息驱动下的国债收益率变化对新兴市场经济体资产价格的影响要比增长消息驱动下的收益率变化大得多；\n(2) 相对于不那么脆弱的经济体，脆弱经济体的资产价格对美国国债收益率变动更为敏感。货币政策消息推动的收益率上升对较为脆弱的经济体造成了沉重打击：本币债券收益率的升幅是美国国债收益率升幅的两倍多，CDS息差飙升，股价和货币崩溃。相反，当美国国债收益率上升反映的是增长消息时，对新兴市场经济体金融状况的影响一般是有限的，从统计角度讲，在大多数情况下几乎为零。\n\n综上所述，美国国债收益率上升可能导致新兴市场经济体金融状况明显收紧，但这种影响在很大程度上取决于收益率上升的驱动因素和新兴市场经济体的国内状况。我们的研究结果有助于解释今年迄今美国国债收益率上升对新兴市场的金融溢出效应为何有限，这是因为收益率上升似乎主要是受到美国增长前景改善的推动。话虽如此，如果未来加息反映了对通胀的担忧加剧，脆弱的新兴市场可能会面临压力。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127258161,"gmtCreate":1624852580553,"gmtModify":1633947936534,"author":{"id":"3583616639231023","authorId":"3583616639231023","name":"Henryong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8784225fbd5d54cd129efbe31bbeb2cf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583616639231023","authorIdStr":"3583616639231023"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"pls like","listText":"pls like","text":"pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127258161","repostId":"1115271775","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115271775","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624849752,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115271775?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 11:09","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"港交所下午一点半将恢复交易","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115271775","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月28日讯，香港天文台改发红色暴雨警告信号（此前为黑色暴雨警告信号），港交所下午一点半将恢复市场交易。\n根据港交所规定，若11:00-11:30解除黑色暴雨警告，下午1:30开市；11:30-12:","content":"<p>6月28日讯，香港天文台改发红色暴雨警告信号（此前为黑色暴雨警告信号），港交所下午一点半将恢复市场交易。</p>\n<p>根据港交所规定，若11:00-11:30解除黑色暴雨警告，下午1:30开市；11:30-12:00解除黑色暴雨警告，下午2:00开市；12:00后解除黑色暴雨警告，则全天休市。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa2358a6b83c103be2c4404bddf61e1a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>港交所下午一点半将恢复交易</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n港交所下午一点半将恢复交易\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-28 11:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>6月28日讯，香港天文台改发红色暴雨警告信号（此前为黑色暴雨警告信号），港交所下午一点半将恢复市场交易。</p>\n<p>根据港交所规定，若11:00-11:30解除黑色暴雨警告，下午1:30开市；11:30-12:00解除黑色暴雨警告，下午2:00开市；12:00后解除黑色暴雨警告，则全天休市。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa2358a6b83c103be2c4404bddf61e1a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1244793084c6388467f46fc7c39784b","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115271775","content_text":"6月28日讯，香港天文台改发红色暴雨警告信号（此前为黑色暴雨警告信号），港交所下午一点半将恢复市场交易。\n根据港交所规定，若11:00-11:30解除黑色暴雨警告，下午1:30开市；11:30-12:00解除黑色暴雨警告，下午2:00开市；12:00后解除黑色暴雨警告，则全天休市。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162213792,"gmtCreate":1624064374516,"gmtModify":1634023380174,"author":{"id":"3583616639231023","authorId":"3583616639231023","name":"Henryong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8784225fbd5d54cd129efbe31bbeb2cf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583616639231023","authorIdStr":"3583616639231023"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please 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10:48</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。</b></p>\n<p>港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。</p>\n<p><b>背景简介：</b></p>\n<p><b>独立日</b>是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月4日大陆会议在费城正式通过《独立宣言》。美国的独立日，与宗教、民俗节日一样隆重，老百姓在节日前清洁院落，装饰家居，悬挂国旗。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21dd6adec6b29203b5bca22347419441","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168133884","content_text":"因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月4日大陆会议在费城正式通过《独立宣言》。美国的独立日，与宗教、民俗节日一样隆重，老百姓在节日前清洁院落，装饰家居，悬挂国旗。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127258161,"gmtCreate":1624852580553,"gmtModify":1633947936534,"author":{"id":"3583616639231023","authorId":"3583616639231023","name":"Henryong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8784225fbd5d54cd129efbe31bbeb2cf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583616639231023","authorIdStr":"3583616639231023"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"pls like","listText":"pls like","text":"pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127258161","repostId":"1115271775","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115271775","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624849752,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115271775?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 11:09","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"港交所下午一点半将恢复交易","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115271775","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月28日讯，香港天文台改发红色暴雨警告信号（此前为黑色暴雨警告信号），港交所下午一点半将恢复市场交易。\n根据港交所规定，若11:00-11:30解除黑色暴雨警告，下午1:30开市；11:30-12:","content":"<p>6月28日讯，香港天文台改发红色暴雨警告信号（此前为黑色暴雨警告信号），港交所下午一点半将恢复市场交易。</p>\n<p>根据港交所规定，若11:00-11:30解除黑色暴雨警告，下午1:30开市；11:30-12:00解除黑色暴雨警告，下午2:00开市；12:00后解除黑色暴雨警告，则全天休市。<img 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n港交所下午一点半将恢复交易\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-28 11:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>6月28日讯，香港天文台改发红色暴雨警告信号（此前为黑色暴雨警告信号），港交所下午一点半将恢复市场交易。</p>\n<p>根据港交所规定，若11:00-11:30解除黑色暴雨警告，下午1:30开市；11:30-12:00解除黑色暴雨警告，下午2:00开市；12:00后解除黑色暴雨警告，则全天休市。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa2358a6b83c103be2c4404bddf61e1a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1244793084c6388467f46fc7c39784b","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115271775","content_text":"6月28日讯，香港天文台改发红色暴雨警告信号（此前为黑色暴雨警告信号），港交所下午一点半将恢复市场交易。\n根据港交所规定，若11:00-11:30解除黑色暴雨警告，下午1:30开市；11:30-12:00解除黑色暴雨警告，下午2:00开市；12:00后解除黑色暴雨警告，则全天休市。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142681016,"gmtCreate":1626146043935,"gmtModify":1633929654808,"author":{"id":"3583616639231023","authorId":"3583616639231023","name":"Henryong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8784225fbd5d54cd129efbe31bbeb2cf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583616639231023","authorIdStr":"3583616639231023"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"zan","listText":"zan","text":"zan","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142681016","repostId":"1120175170","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":225,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140396118,"gmtCreate":1625627670634,"gmtModify":1633938911198,"author":{"id":"3583616639231023","authorId":"3583616639231023","name":"Henryong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8784225fbd5d54cd129efbe31bbeb2cf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583616639231023","authorIdStr":"3583616639231023"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140396118","repostId":"1120175170","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155698469,"gmtCreate":1625408659151,"gmtModify":1633940892453,"author":{"id":"3583616639231023","authorId":"3583616639231023","name":"Henryong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8784225fbd5d54cd129efbe31bbeb2cf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583616639231023","authorIdStr":"3583616639231023"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😊","listText":"😊","text":"😊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155698469","repostId":"2148980089","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151919906,"gmtCreate":1625061395005,"gmtModify":1633945324187,"author":{"id":"3583616639231023","authorId":"3583616639231023","name":"Henryong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8784225fbd5d54cd129efbe31bbeb2cf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583616639231023","authorIdStr":"3583616639231023"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151919906","repostId":"1108833039","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108833039","pubTimestamp":1625057247,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108833039?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-30 20:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储笔记：美国加息是否会影响新兴市场经济体稳定？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108833039","media":"人民币交易与研究","summary":"美联储近日公布最新笔记，分析了美国货币政策对新兴市场的金融溢出效应。相关研究结果帮助解释了最近几个月美国国债收益率的上升对新兴市场经济体金融状况的影响为何相当温和：因为收益率上升似乎主要是受到美国增长","content":"<p>美联储近日公布最新笔记，分析了美国货币政策对新兴市场的金融溢出效应。相关研究结果帮助解释了最近几个月美国国债收益率的上升对新兴市场经济体金融状况的影响为何相当温和：因为收益率上升似乎主要是受到美国增长前景改善的推动。话虽如此，如果未来加息反映了对通胀的担忧加剧，脆弱的新兴市场可能会面临压力。</p>\n<p>美国利率上升通常被认为对新兴市场经济体(EMEs)是个坏消息，因为它们增加了债务负担，引发资本外流，而且通常会导致金融环境收紧，从而可能引发金融危机。事实上，如下面所示，1980年代初沃尔克抗通胀时期联邦基金利率的上升(黑线)与新兴市场国家金融危机发生率的急剧上升(绿条)相关。然而，在其他情况下，比如2000年代中期，新兴市场经济体几乎没有遇到什么困难就经受住了美国利率上升的冲击。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0371fc370fb1dfcdf6532d95bb634ac\" tg-width=\"769\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>美国货币政策对新兴市场的所谓“溢出效应”为何存在差异？我们最近的研究表明，美国货币政策对新兴市场的金融溢出效应取决于两个关键因素：</p>\n<p>第一个是美国利率变化的原因。由良好的增长前景推动的利率上升，可能对新兴金融市场产生相对良性的影响，因为美国贸易伙伴进口需求增加带来的国内生产总值(GDP)增长，以及投资者信心增强带来的好处都应该会抵消加息的成本。相反，如果加息主要是由于对通胀的担忧或美联储政策转向鹰派(我们将其统一称为货币消息)，则可能对新兴市场造成更大的破坏。</p>\n<p>影响美国货币政策溢出效应的第二个关键因素是，新兴市场国家自身的状况；宏观经济脆弱性较高的经济体的金融状况往往对美国利率的上升更为敏感。</p>\n<p>我们的研究结果有助于解释为什么最近几个月美国国债收益率的上升对新兴市场经济体金融状况的影响相当温和。尽管近期通胀数据有所上扬，但这在很大程度上可能是由于对美国经济迅速复苏的预期升温所致，这将有利于全球经济的整体发展。此外,尽管近年来新兴市场经济体债务显著增长，并且因大流行病暴发而加剧，但宏观经济脆弱性仍然低于1990年代和1980年代这些动荡年代：宏观经济政策更审慎，货币在应对危机时更灵活，金融领域也更富有弹性。</p>\n<p>在本报告的其余部分，我们将总结上述发现背后的研究，并提出关于较长期美国国债收益率上升对新兴市场经济体金融状况影响的新证据。我们首先围绕两种不同的事件——联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议和美国就业报告——观察一个小时的窗口期内10年期美国国债收益率的变化，然后我们将FOMC会议和就业报告分类，根据它们主要传达的是增长消息(即关于未来增长前景的信息)，还是货币消息(即关于未来通胀或美联储的反应机制的信息)。</p>\n<p>为了做到这一点，我们研究了标普500指数的同步变动。因此，如果10年期美国国债收益率和标普500指数走势一致，那么FOMC的公告和非农就业数据将被视为主要传达经济增长消息。例如，FOMC的沟通增加了投资者对美国经济增长的信心，可能导致美国国债收益率和股票价格携手上涨，一份表明增长和盈利前景不佳的非常疲弱的就业报告则可能导致收益率和股价下跌。图2中蓝色圆点散点图显示了自2010年以来FOMC所有会议和就业报告引发的10年期美国国债收益率和标普500指数变化的组合，我们将这些数据归类为主要传达增长的消息。这些数据分别占FOMC会议和就业报告的三分之一还多。</p>\n<p>相比之下，如果10年期美国国债收益率和标普500指数在会议后走势相反，我们就将FOMC会议和就业报告视为主要传达货币政策的消息。例如，FOMC宣布通胀压力上升，或许会被解读为政策立场更趋鹰派，这可能推高美国国债收益率，而压低标普500指数，因为实际贴现率上升会对股票估值构成压力。或者，一份就业报告可能会导致收益率下降，但股价上涨，因为投资者可能认为它的疲弱程度足以避免美联储未来收紧货币政策。图2中红色菱形散点图显示了我们将其归类为主要传达货币消息的观察结果。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac675aef97e9cb91189cd5b73ba596f\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>有了这一分类，我们接下来估计新兴市场资产价格--本币债券收益率、股票指数、信用违约互换(CDS)息差和货币--对美国国债收益率走势的反应。我们分别对这四种资产价格与10年期美国国债收益率在FOMC会议和就业报告前后的变化进行面板回归分析，利用一个22个新兴市场经济体从2010年1月至3月22日的样本。我们允许估计反应基于以下情况而有所不同：(1)FOMC或就业报告是根据上述方法归类为传达增长还是货币消息；(2)事件爆发前新兴市场经济体自身的宏观经济脆弱性。为了量化新兴市场经济体的脆弱性，我们使用了Ahmed等人(2017)开发的一种复合衡量方法，该方法结合了六个指标的信息：通胀、经常账户赤字、国际储备、政府债务、外债和私营部门信贷增长。</p>\n<p>我们的主要结果显示在图3中，该图显示了10年期美国国债收益率上升100个基点对新兴市场经济体资产价格的影响。蓝条表示增长消息的溢出效应，红条表示货币消息的溢出效应。这些图表充分说明了我们的两个重要发现：</p>\n<p>(1) 货币消息驱动下的国债收益率变化对新兴市场经济体资产价格的影响要比增长消息驱动下的收益率变化大得多；</p>\n<p>(2) 相对于不那么脆弱的经济体，脆弱经济体的资产价格对美国国债收益率变动更为敏感。货币政策消息推动的收益率上升对较为脆弱的经济体造成了沉重打击：本币债券收益率的升幅是美国国债收益率升幅的两倍多，CDS息差飙升，股价和货币崩溃。相反，当美国国债收益率上升反映的是增长消息时，对新兴市场经济体金融状况的影响一般是有限的，从统计角度讲，在大多数情况下几乎为零。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e50ddae97e535c72e0727c5a8031a6e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"1126\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>综上所述，美国国债收益率上升可能导致新兴市场经济体金融状况明显收紧，但这种影响在很大程度上取决于收益率上升的驱动因素和新兴市场经济体的国内状况。我们的研究结果有助于解释今年迄今美国国债收益率上升对新兴市场的金融溢出效应为何有限，这是因为收益率上升似乎主要是受到美国增长前景改善的推动。话虽如此，如果未来加息反映了对通胀的担忧加剧，脆弱的新兴市场可能会面临压力。</p>","source":"lsy1574157197600","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储笔记：美国加息是否会影响新兴市场经济体稳定？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储笔记：美国加息是否会影响新兴市场经济体稳定？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-30 20:47 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ZTDv9OVSEz0gDGON3XgWgg><strong>人民币交易与研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储近日公布最新笔记，分析了美国货币政策对新兴市场的金融溢出效应。相关研究结果帮助解释了最近几个月美国国债收益率的上升对新兴市场经济体金融状况的影响为何相当温和：因为收益率上升似乎主要是受到美国增长前景改善的推动。话虽如此，如果未来加息反映了对通胀的担忧加剧，脆弱的新兴市场可能会面临压力。\n美国利率上升通常被认为对新兴市场经济体(EMEs)是个坏消息，因为它们增加了债务负担，引发资本外流，而且...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ZTDv9OVSEz0gDGON3XgWgg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指反向ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ZTDv9OVSEz0gDGON3XgWgg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108833039","content_text":"美联储近日公布最新笔记，分析了美国货币政策对新兴市场的金融溢出效应。相关研究结果帮助解释了最近几个月美国国债收益率的上升对新兴市场经济体金融状况的影响为何相当温和：因为收益率上升似乎主要是受到美国增长前景改善的推动。话虽如此，如果未来加息反映了对通胀的担忧加剧，脆弱的新兴市场可能会面临压力。\n美国利率上升通常被认为对新兴市场经济体(EMEs)是个坏消息，因为它们增加了债务负担，引发资本外流，而且通常会导致金融环境收紧，从而可能引发金融危机。事实上，如下面所示，1980年代初沃尔克抗通胀时期联邦基金利率的上升(黑线)与新兴市场国家金融危机发生率的急剧上升(绿条)相关。然而，在其他情况下，比如2000年代中期，新兴市场经济体几乎没有遇到什么困难就经受住了美国利率上升的冲击。\n\n美国货币政策对新兴市场的所谓“溢出效应”为何存在差异？我们最近的研究表明，美国货币政策对新兴市场的金融溢出效应取决于两个关键因素：\n第一个是美国利率变化的原因。由良好的增长前景推动的利率上升，可能对新兴金融市场产生相对良性的影响，因为美国贸易伙伴进口需求增加带来的国内生产总值(GDP)增长，以及投资者信心增强带来的好处都应该会抵消加息的成本。相反，如果加息主要是由于对通胀的担忧或美联储政策转向鹰派(我们将其统一称为货币消息)，则可能对新兴市场造成更大的破坏。\n影响美国货币政策溢出效应的第二个关键因素是，新兴市场国家自身的状况；宏观经济脆弱性较高的经济体的金融状况往往对美国利率的上升更为敏感。\n我们的研究结果有助于解释为什么最近几个月美国国债收益率的上升对新兴市场经济体金融状况的影响相当温和。尽管近期通胀数据有所上扬，但这在很大程度上可能是由于对美国经济迅速复苏的预期升温所致，这将有利于全球经济的整体发展。此外,尽管近年来新兴市场经济体债务显著增长，并且因大流行病暴发而加剧，但宏观经济脆弱性仍然低于1990年代和1980年代这些动荡年代：宏观经济政策更审慎，货币在应对危机时更灵活，金融领域也更富有弹性。\n在本报告的其余部分，我们将总结上述发现背后的研究，并提出关于较长期美国国债收益率上升对新兴市场经济体金融状况影响的新证据。我们首先围绕两种不同的事件——联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议和美国就业报告——观察一个小时的窗口期内10年期美国国债收益率的变化，然后我们将FOMC会议和就业报告分类，根据它们主要传达的是增长消息(即关于未来增长前景的信息)，还是货币消息(即关于未来通胀或美联储的反应机制的信息)。\n为了做到这一点，我们研究了标普500指数的同步变动。因此，如果10年期美国国债收益率和标普500指数走势一致，那么FOMC的公告和非农就业数据将被视为主要传达经济增长消息。例如，FOMC的沟通增加了投资者对美国经济增长的信心，可能导致美国国债收益率和股票价格携手上涨，一份表明增长和盈利前景不佳的非常疲弱的就业报告则可能导致收益率和股价下跌。图2中蓝色圆点散点图显示了自2010年以来FOMC所有会议和就业报告引发的10年期美国国债收益率和标普500指数变化的组合，我们将这些数据归类为主要传达增长的消息。这些数据分别占FOMC会议和就业报告的三分之一还多。\n相比之下，如果10年期美国国债收益率和标普500指数在会议后走势相反，我们就将FOMC会议和就业报告视为主要传达货币政策的消息。例如，FOMC宣布通胀压力上升，或许会被解读为政策立场更趋鹰派，这可能推高美国国债收益率，而压低标普500指数，因为实际贴现率上升会对股票估值构成压力。或者，一份就业报告可能会导致收益率下降，但股价上涨，因为投资者可能认为它的疲弱程度足以避免美联储未来收紧货币政策。图2中红色菱形散点图显示了我们将其归类为主要传达货币消息的观察结果。\n\n有了这一分类，我们接下来估计新兴市场资产价格--本币债券收益率、股票指数、信用违约互换(CDS)息差和货币--对美国国债收益率走势的反应。我们分别对这四种资产价格与10年期美国国债收益率在FOMC会议和就业报告前后的变化进行面板回归分析，利用一个22个新兴市场经济体从2010年1月至3月22日的样本。我们允许估计反应基于以下情况而有所不同：(1)FOMC或就业报告是根据上述方法归类为传达增长还是货币消息；(2)事件爆发前新兴市场经济体自身的宏观经济脆弱性。为了量化新兴市场经济体的脆弱性，我们使用了Ahmed等人(2017)开发的一种复合衡量方法，该方法结合了六个指标的信息：通胀、经常账户赤字、国际储备、政府债务、外债和私营部门信贷增长。\n我们的主要结果显示在图3中，该图显示了10年期美国国债收益率上升100个基点对新兴市场经济体资产价格的影响。蓝条表示增长消息的溢出效应，红条表示货币消息的溢出效应。这些图表充分说明了我们的两个重要发现：\n(1) 货币消息驱动下的国债收益率变化对新兴市场经济体资产价格的影响要比增长消息驱动下的收益率变化大得多；\n(2) 相对于不那么脆弱的经济体，脆弱经济体的资产价格对美国国债收益率变动更为敏感。货币政策消息推动的收益率上升对较为脆弱的经济体造成了沉重打击：本币债券收益率的升幅是美国国债收益率升幅的两倍多，CDS息差飙升，股价和货币崩溃。相反，当美国国债收益率上升反映的是增长消息时，对新兴市场经济体金融状况的影响一般是有限的，从统计角度讲，在大多数情况下几乎为零。\n\n综上所述，美国国债收益率上升可能导致新兴市场经济体金融状况明显收紧，但这种影响在很大程度上取决于收益率上升的驱动因素和新兴市场经济体的国内状况。我们的研究结果有助于解释今年迄今美国国债收益率上升对新兴市场的金融溢出效应为何有限，这是因为收益率上升似乎主要是受到美国增长前景改善的推动。话虽如此，如果未来加息反映了对通胀的担忧加剧，脆弱的新兴市场可能会面临压力。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162213792,"gmtCreate":1624064374516,"gmtModify":1634023380174,"author":{"id":"3583616639231023","authorId":"3583616639231023","name":"Henryong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8784225fbd5d54cd129efbe31bbeb2cf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583616639231023","authorIdStr":"3583616639231023"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like，thank you","listText":"Please like，thank 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