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千里独行侠
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IP属地:北京
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热门
千里独行侠
10-10
$京东物流(02618)$
下周三之前会有一个不错的涨势
千里独行侠
09-23
电子产品买了就是消费品,所以性能和价格匹配才好。
小米股价创近三年新高!雷军:Note14系列定档9月26日
千里独行侠
09-23
希望小米继续涨,已经持仓很多年了,这次终于看到点希望了
千里独行侠
05-18
经营状况往往和股市并不完全匹配
千里独行侠
02-05
$商汤-W(00020)$
估计一时半会起不来
千里独行侠
2023-12-06
估计会掉到0点几
$商汤-W(00020)$
千里独行侠
2023-09-26
$商汤-W(00020)$
[微笑] [微笑]
千里独行侠
2023-07-06
$拼多多(PDD)$
大环境不好,跌跌有助于筑底
千里独行侠
2023-06-16
$标普500(.SPX)$
[开心]
千里独行侠
2023-05-26
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
看看会不会受政府影响
千里独行侠
2023-05-14
六一儿童节快乐,儿童节你还好吗?[开心] [开心]
债务违约倒计时?耶伦最新警告,全球金融恐慌正“暗潮汹涌”
千里独行侠
2023-05-12
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
覆巢之下无完卵
千里独行侠
2023-04-26
有钱咱们也可以玩一把,预计真正商业化时间不会太短
十年内有望突破?千倍回报?盖茨、贝索斯们正在下注
千里独行侠
2023-04-24
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
不空不买
千里独行侠
2023-04-17
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
周末前必跌到90以下,呵呵
千里独行侠
2023-04-04
$标普500(.SPX)$
今晚估计要跌
千里独行侠
2023-03-28
看看这几个股票啥时候跌到谷底
热门中概股多数下跌,拼多多跌4%,百度、爱奇艺跌超3%,京东跌超2%
千里独行侠
2023-03-28
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
[开心] [龇牙] 不跌不买
千里独行侠
2023-03-13
😅😅😅🐂🍺🐂🍺
@投资界:彼真科技获数千万天使+轮投资,线性资本、红杉中国种子基金、凯辉基金投资
千里独行侠
2023-03-07
$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$
[惊讶] [开心] [生气]
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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10:18</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>9月23日,港股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米集团-W</a>涨超4%,报20.7港元,股价创近三年来新高。消息面:小米雷军发布微博称,Note 14系列,定档9月26日晚7点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7fd93411211b63c2fde9f5a80719648\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29efaf44367879398c511ebfd767635d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"927\" tg-height=\"613\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b330c7a5fe2b62c4d008bd67f85ddd","relate_stocks":{"LU2097828557.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2097828631.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC","LU1770034418.SGD":"ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2097828714.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"BAZ\" (EUR) ACC","XIACY":"小米集团ADR","LU1813983027.USD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU0314109678.HKD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON 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[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/656715309","repostId":"1130382361","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130382361","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d"},"pubTimestamp":1684021631,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130382361?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-05-14 07:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"债务违约倒计时?耶伦最新警告,全球金融恐慌正“暗潮汹涌”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130382361","media":"格隆汇","summary":"不提高债务上限,拜登政府就“无米下锅”了眼下,美国债务违约风险正不断逼近。美国财政部长耶伦最新透露,美国政府可能“最早在6月1日”发生债务违约,这将成为美国历史上的首次债务违约。同日,美国国会预算办公","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>不提高债务上限,拜登政府就“无米下锅”了</blockquote><p>眼下,美国债务违约风险正不断逼近。</p><p>美国财政部长耶伦最新透露,美国政府可能“最早在6月1日”发生债务违约,这将成为美国历史上的首次债务违约。同日,美国国会预算办公室也发出警告称,如果债务上限保持不变,那么可能在 6 月的前两周,美政府将无法再支付所有债务。</p><p>今年1月,美国联邦政府债务已达到约31.4万亿美元的法定上限。虽然随后美财政部部署了相关措施,不过却只能维持到6月初,而当下距离这个时间点,已经所剩无几。</p><p>据美国财政部在周五的一份声明中表示,截至5月10日,帮助维系政府账单支付的特别措施只剩下了880亿美元,一周前的余额约为1100亿美元。</p><p>这也意味着在3330亿美元的授权措施中,只有略超过四分之一还可以用来防止美国政府在法定债务上限范围内耗尽借贷空间。</p><p>如果接下来美国未能提高债务上限而产生违约,届时将引发一场“经济和金融灾难”。</p><p><strong>耶伦:最早将在6月1日</strong></p><p>当地时间周五(5月12日),美国财政部长耶伦最新表示,<strong>如果国会不能及时调高债务上限,美国最早将在6月1日发生债务违约</strong>。她预计将在接下来两周内向国会更新债务违约的“X日期”。</p><p>但是目前,美国两党在提高债务上限问题上存在巨大分歧,白宫方面和民主党希望迅速提高债务上限,共和党则希望在提高借款上限之前削减开支。</p><p>耶伦表示,拜登政府正在夜以继日地工作,以避免因国会未能提高31.4万亿美元债务上限,而引发经济动荡。她指,最近几星期与商界领袖讨论这个问题,并将在下星期与华尔街高级银行家会面,<strong>讨论美国或自1789年以来首次出现债务违约的可能性。</strong></p><p>她指出,如果国会不能提高债务上限会损害美国信用评级,亦难免在某些义务上违约,无论是国债偿付,还是支付给社会保障金领取者的款项。<strong>除了国会提高债务上限,没有更好的选择,自1960年以来国会已经提高债务上限近80次。</strong></p><p>本周二,拜登与国会领导人在白宫举行了2月份以来关于债务上限和支出问题的首次实质性讨论,当时会谈未能取得突破。</p><p>而原定于本周五举行的债务上限会议则被推迟到了下周。有分析称,会议推迟表明,双方工作人员级别的谈判取得了进展。</p><p><strong>美国国会预算办公室也发出警告!</strong></p><p>周五,美国国会预算办公室(CBO)也发布的最新报告显示,如<strong>果债务上限保持不变,则存在重大风险,即在 6 月的前两周的某个时候,政府将无法再支付所有债务。</strong></p><p>即使财政部最终在 6 月初耗尽资金,整个 5 月财政部能够为政府持续运作提供资金的程度仍不确定。</p><p>如果在财政部的现金和非常措施用尽之前不提高或暂停债务限额,<strong>政府将不得不延迟支付某些活动的款项,拖欠债务,或两者兼而有之</strong>。如果财政部能够度过6月份的现金危机,则预期的季度税收收入和额外的非常规措施可能会让政府<strong>至少在 7 月底之前继续融资。</strong></p><p>国会预算办公室透露,在颁布提高或暂停债务上限的立法之前,财政部必须使用其现金余额和可用的非常措施来为正在进行的政府活动提供资金。财政部可以减少其现金余额以延长它可以在不发行债务的情况下继续为政府运作提供资金。2023 年 4 月 30 日,财政部拥有 3160 亿美元现金。</p><p>另外,国会预算办公室还发布了 <strong>2023 年联邦预算赤字的更新预测,将其提高到1.5万亿美元</strong>,比此前 2 月份的估计多出 0.1 万亿美元。不过,该估计存在相当大的不确定性,部分原因是近期税收收入不足。</p><p>对2024 年到 2033 年的预算,该机构的最新预测显示,未来十年的年度赤字将增加近一倍,到 2033 年将达到 2.7 万亿美元。预计 2024 年至 2033 年期间的累计赤字为 20.2 万亿美元,与 CBO 在 2 月份预测的赤字大致相同。根据经济规模衡量,赤字从明年占国内生产总值 (GDP) 的 6.0% 增长到 2033 年的 6.9%,远高于 50 年来占 GDP 3.6% 的平均水平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec4b1b348cdcecab6ed97edf0d6518ca\" tg-width=\"670\" tg-height=\"401\"/></p><p>由于这些赤字,CBO 预测公众持有的债务也会增加,从今年年底占 GDP 的 98% 增加到 2033 年底的 119%。届时,债务占 GDP 的比重将达到美国有史以来的最高水平,并且有望进一步上升。<br/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01c792b25da2cf71ebde5de6076a41eb\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"412\"/></p><p><strong>全球经济困境加剧</strong></p><p>随着美债逼近违约,或将引发新一轮市场恐慌,甚至波及全球金融市场。</p><p>摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)表示,<strong>随着美国主权债务越来越逼近违约,市场将一步步陷入恐慌</strong>。他还警告称,假如美国主权债真的陷入违约,对美国来说将是“潜在的灾难”。</p><blockquote>“如果达到恐慌点,人们必须做出反应,我们以前见过这种情况,但“这真的是个坏主意,因为恐慌会导致糟糕的情况出现,这可能会影响全球其他市场。”</blockquote><p>他表示,希望美国两大政党的政界人士尽快做出妥协,避免出现灾难性的结果。</p><p>世界银行行长马尔帕斯日前表示,美债违约风险正在加剧全球经济所面临的问题,不断上升的利率和较高债务水平已经扼杀了促进产出增长所需的投资。</p><blockquote>“很显然,</blockquote><blockquote><strong>世界上最大的经济体(美国)的困境对所有人都不利</strong></blockquote><blockquote>如果不解决这个问题,后果会很糟糕。”</blockquote><p>马尔帕斯表示,全球经济增长预计在2023年降至2%以下,并且可能在几年内保持低增长。其中一个巨大的挑战是,发达经济体承担了如此多的债务,需要大量资本来偿还,留给发展中国家的投资太少。</p><p>国际货币基金组织(IMF)也警告称,美国如果出现债务违约,将对美经济造成非常严重影响,并拖累全球经济;当前多国经济已受到美国加息伤害,使得未来全球经济增长处于不利预期中。</p><p>IMF表示,美国债务违约的潜在后果包括将导致更高的利率、经济上更广泛的不稳定;加之过去数年来各类危机带来的冲击,经济将面临严峻形势。到目前为止,<strong>美国不断加息已经伤害了不少国家,尤其是那些陷入债务困境和经济面临脆弱性的国家。</strong></p><p>IMF估计,全球15%的低收入国家因美国不断加息而处于债务困境中,45%处于风险之中。基于上述经济现状,IMF已经将未来五年的全球增长视为三十多年来最弱势的增长。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n债务违约倒计时?耶伦最新警告,全球金融恐慌正“暗潮汹涌”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-05-14 07:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote>不提高债务上限,拜登政府就“无米下锅”了</blockquote><p>眼下,美国债务违约风险正不断逼近。</p><p>美国财政部长耶伦最新透露,美国政府可能“最早在6月1日”发生债务违约,这将成为美国历史上的首次债务违约。同日,美国国会预算办公室也发出警告称,如果债务上限保持不变,那么可能在 6 月的前两周,美政府将无法再支付所有债务。</p><p>今年1月,美国联邦政府债务已达到约31.4万亿美元的法定上限。虽然随后美财政部部署了相关措施,不过却只能维持到6月初,而当下距离这个时间点,已经所剩无几。</p><p>据美国财政部在周五的一份声明中表示,截至5月10日,帮助维系政府账单支付的特别措施只剩下了880亿美元,一周前的余额约为1100亿美元。</p><p>这也意味着在3330亿美元的授权措施中,只有略超过四分之一还可以用来防止美国政府在法定债务上限范围内耗尽借贷空间。</p><p>如果接下来美国未能提高债务上限而产生违约,届时将引发一场“经济和金融灾难”。</p><p><strong>耶伦:最早将在6月1日</strong></p><p>当地时间周五(5月12日),美国财政部长耶伦最新表示,<strong>如果国会不能及时调高债务上限,美国最早将在6月1日发生债务违约</strong>。她预计将在接下来两周内向国会更新债务违约的“X日期”。</p><p>但是目前,美国两党在提高债务上限问题上存在巨大分歧,白宫方面和民主党希望迅速提高债务上限,共和党则希望在提高借款上限之前削减开支。</p><p>耶伦表示,拜登政府正在夜以继日地工作,以避免因国会未能提高31.4万亿美元债务上限,而引发经济动荡。她指,最近几星期与商界领袖讨论这个问题,并将在下星期与华尔街高级银行家会面,<strong>讨论美国或自1789年以来首次出现债务违约的可能性。</strong></p><p>她指出,如果国会不能提高债务上限会损害美国信用评级,亦难免在某些义务上违约,无论是国债偿付,还是支付给社会保障金领取者的款项。<strong>除了国会提高债务上限,没有更好的选择,自1960年以来国会已经提高债务上限近80次。</strong></p><p>本周二,拜登与国会领导人在白宫举行了2月份以来关于债务上限和支出问题的首次实质性讨论,当时会谈未能取得突破。</p><p>而原定于本周五举行的债务上限会议则被推迟到了下周。有分析称,会议推迟表明,双方工作人员级别的谈判取得了进展。</p><p><strong>美国国会预算办公室也发出警告!</strong></p><p>周五,美国国会预算办公室(CBO)也发布的最新报告显示,如<strong>果债务上限保持不变,则存在重大风险,即在 6 月的前两周的某个时候,政府将无法再支付所有债务。</strong></p><p>即使财政部最终在 6 月初耗尽资金,整个 5 月财政部能够为政府持续运作提供资金的程度仍不确定。</p><p>如果在财政部的现金和非常措施用尽之前不提高或暂停债务限额,<strong>政府将不得不延迟支付某些活动的款项,拖欠债务,或两者兼而有之</strong>。如果财政部能够度过6月份的现金危机,则预期的季度税收收入和额外的非常规措施可能会让政府<strong>至少在 7 月底之前继续融资。</strong></p><p>国会预算办公室透露,在颁布提高或暂停债务上限的立法之前,财政部必须使用其现金余额和可用的非常措施来为正在进行的政府活动提供资金。财政部可以减少其现金余额以延长它可以在不发行债务的情况下继续为政府运作提供资金。2023 年 4 月 30 日,财政部拥有 3160 亿美元现金。</p><p>另外,国会预算办公室还发布了 <strong>2023 年联邦预算赤字的更新预测,将其提高到1.5万亿美元</strong>,比此前 2 月份的估计多出 0.1 万亿美元。不过,该估计存在相当大的不确定性,部分原因是近期税收收入不足。</p><p>对2024 年到 2033 年的预算,该机构的最新预测显示,未来十年的年度赤字将增加近一倍,到 2033 年将达到 2.7 万亿美元。预计 2024 年至 2033 年期间的累计赤字为 20.2 万亿美元,与 CBO 在 2 月份预测的赤字大致相同。根据经济规模衡量,赤字从明年占国内生产总值 (GDP) 的 6.0% 增长到 2033 年的 6.9%,远高于 50 年来占 GDP 3.6% 的平均水平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec4b1b348cdcecab6ed97edf0d6518ca\" tg-width=\"670\" tg-height=\"401\"/></p><p>由于这些赤字,CBO 预测公众持有的债务也会增加,从今年年底占 GDP 的 98% 增加到 2033 年底的 119%。届时,债务占 GDP 的比重将达到美国有史以来的最高水平,并且有望进一步上升。<br/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01c792b25da2cf71ebde5de6076a41eb\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"412\"/></p><p><strong>全球经济困境加剧</strong></p><p>随着美债逼近违约,或将引发新一轮市场恐慌,甚至波及全球金融市场。</p><p>摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)表示,<strong>随着美国主权债务越来越逼近违约,市场将一步步陷入恐慌</strong>。他还警告称,假如美国主权债真的陷入违约,对美国来说将是“潜在的灾难”。</p><blockquote>“如果达到恐慌点,人们必须做出反应,我们以前见过这种情况,但“这真的是个坏主意,因为恐慌会导致糟糕的情况出现,这可能会影响全球其他市场。”</blockquote><p>他表示,希望美国两大政党的政界人士尽快做出妥协,避免出现灾难性的结果。</p><p>世界银行行长马尔帕斯日前表示,美债违约风险正在加剧全球经济所面临的问题,不断上升的利率和较高债务水平已经扼杀了促进产出增长所需的投资。</p><blockquote>“很显然,</blockquote><blockquote><strong>世界上最大的经济体(美国)的困境对所有人都不利</strong></blockquote><blockquote>如果不解决这个问题,后果会很糟糕。”</blockquote><p>马尔帕斯表示,全球经济增长预计在2023年降至2%以下,并且可能在几年内保持低增长。其中一个巨大的挑战是,发达经济体承担了如此多的债务,需要大量资本来偿还,留给发展中国家的投资太少。</p><p>国际货币基金组织(IMF)也警告称,美国如果出现债务违约,将对美经济造成非常严重影响,并拖累全球经济;当前多国经济已受到美国加息伤害,使得未来全球经济增长处于不利预期中。</p><p>IMF表示,美国债务违约的潜在后果包括将导致更高的利率、经济上更广泛的不稳定;加之过去数年来各类危机带来的冲击,经济将面临严峻形势。到目前为止,<strong>美国不断加息已经伤害了不少国家,尤其是那些陷入债务困境和经济面临脆弱性的国家。</strong></p><p>IMF估计,全球15%的低收入国家因美国不断加息而处于债务困境中,45%处于风险之中。基于上述经济现状,IMF已经将未来五年的全球增长视为三十多年来最弱势的增长。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b635f5477b737798a711b1fe171f5d50","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130382361","content_text":"不提高债务上限,拜登政府就“无米下锅”了眼下,美国债务违约风险正不断逼近。美国财政部长耶伦最新透露,美国政府可能“最早在6月1日”发生债务违约,这将成为美国历史上的首次债务违约。同日,美国国会预算办公室也发出警告称,如果债务上限保持不变,那么可能在 6 月的前两周,美政府将无法再支付所有债务。今年1月,美国联邦政府债务已达到约31.4万亿美元的法定上限。虽然随后美财政部部署了相关措施,不过却只能维持到6月初,而当下距离这个时间点,已经所剩无几。据美国财政部在周五的一份声明中表示,截至5月10日,帮助维系政府账单支付的特别措施只剩下了880亿美元,一周前的余额约为1100亿美元。这也意味着在3330亿美元的授权措施中,只有略超过四分之一还可以用来防止美国政府在法定债务上限范围内耗尽借贷空间。如果接下来美国未能提高债务上限而产生违约,届时将引发一场“经济和金融灾难”。耶伦:最早将在6月1日当地时间周五(5月12日),美国财政部长耶伦最新表示,如果国会不能及时调高债务上限,美国最早将在6月1日发生债务违约。她预计将在接下来两周内向国会更新债务违约的“X日期”。但是目前,美国两党在提高债务上限问题上存在巨大分歧,白宫方面和民主党希望迅速提高债务上限,共和党则希望在提高借款上限之前削减开支。耶伦表示,拜登政府正在夜以继日地工作,以避免因国会未能提高31.4万亿美元债务上限,而引发经济动荡。她指,最近几星期与商界领袖讨论这个问题,并将在下星期与华尔街高级银行家会面,讨论美国或自1789年以来首次出现债务违约的可能性。她指出,如果国会不能提高债务上限会损害美国信用评级,亦难免在某些义务上违约,无论是国债偿付,还是支付给社会保障金领取者的款项。除了国会提高债务上限,没有更好的选择,自1960年以来国会已经提高债务上限近80次。本周二,拜登与国会领导人在白宫举行了2月份以来关于债务上限和支出问题的首次实质性讨论,当时会谈未能取得突破。而原定于本周五举行的债务上限会议则被推迟到了下周。有分析称,会议推迟表明,双方工作人员级别的谈判取得了进展。美国国会预算办公室也发出警告!周五,美国国会预算办公室(CBO)也发布的最新报告显示,如果债务上限保持不变,则存在重大风险,即在 6 月的前两周的某个时候,政府将无法再支付所有债务。即使财政部最终在 6 月初耗尽资金,整个 5 月财政部能够为政府持续运作提供资金的程度仍不确定。如果在财政部的现金和非常措施用尽之前不提高或暂停债务限额,政府将不得不延迟支付某些活动的款项,拖欠债务,或两者兼而有之。如果财政部能够度过6月份的现金危机,则预期的季度税收收入和额外的非常规措施可能会让政府至少在 7 月底之前继续融资。国会预算办公室透露,在颁布提高或暂停债务上限的立法之前,财政部必须使用其现金余额和可用的非常措施来为正在进行的政府活动提供资金。财政部可以减少其现金余额以延长它可以在不发行债务的情况下继续为政府运作提供资金。2023 年 4 月 30 日,财政部拥有 3160 亿美元现金。另外,国会预算办公室还发布了 2023 年联邦预算赤字的更新预测,将其提高到1.5万亿美元,比此前 2 月份的估计多出 0.1 万亿美元。不过,该估计存在相当大的不确定性,部分原因是近期税收收入不足。对2024 年到 2033 年的预算,该机构的最新预测显示,未来十年的年度赤字将增加近一倍,到 2033 年将达到 2.7 万亿美元。预计 2024 年至 2033 年期间的累计赤字为 20.2 万亿美元,与 CBO 在 2 月份预测的赤字大致相同。根据经济规模衡量,赤字从明年占国内生产总值 (GDP) 的 6.0% 增长到 2033 年的 6.9%,远高于 50 年来占 GDP 3.6% 的平均水平。由于这些赤字,CBO 预测公众持有的债务也会增加,从今年年底占 GDP 的 98% 增加到 2033 年底的 119%。届时,债务占 GDP 的比重将达到美国有史以来的最高水平,并且有望进一步上升。全球经济困境加剧随着美债逼近违约,或将引发新一轮市场恐慌,甚至波及全球金融市场。摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)表示,随着美国主权债务越来越逼近违约,市场将一步步陷入恐慌。他还警告称,假如美国主权债真的陷入违约,对美国来说将是“潜在的灾难”。“如果达到恐慌点,人们必须做出反应,我们以前见过这种情况,但“这真的是个坏主意,因为恐慌会导致糟糕的情况出现,这可能会影响全球其他市场。”他表示,希望美国两大政党的政界人士尽快做出妥协,避免出现灾难性的结果。世界银行行长马尔帕斯日前表示,美债违约风险正在加剧全球经济所面临的问题,不断上升的利率和较高债务水平已经扼杀了促进产出增长所需的投资。“很显然,世界上最大的经济体(美国)的困境对所有人都不利如果不解决这个问题,后果会很糟糕。”马尔帕斯表示,全球经济增长预计在2023年降至2%以下,并且可能在几年内保持低增长。其中一个巨大的挑战是,发达经济体承担了如此多的债务,需要大量资本来偿还,留给发展中国家的投资太少。国际货币基金组织(IMF)也警告称,美国如果出现债务违约,将对美经济造成非常严重影响,并拖累全球经济;当前多国经济已受到美国加息伤害,使得未来全球经济增长处于不利预期中。IMF表示,美国债务违约的潜在后果包括将导致更高的利率、经济上更广泛的不稳定;加之过去数年来各类危机带来的冲击,经济将面临严峻形势。到目前为止,美国不断加息已经伤害了不少国家,尤其是那些陷入债务困境和经济面临脆弱性的国家。IMF估计,全球15%的低收入国家因美国不断加息而处于债务困境中,45%处于风险之中。基于上述经济现状,IMF已经将未来五年的全球增长视为三十多年来最弱势的增长。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1867,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":656554261,"gmtCreate":1683838149153,"gmtModify":1683838150470,"author":{"id":"3583544396400063","authorId":"3583544396400063","name":"千里独行侠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1903c41ef8ea076dd0a596a6c4b87842","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583544396400063","authorIdStr":"3583544396400063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>覆巢之下无完卵","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>覆巢之下无完卵","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 覆巢之下无完卵","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/656554261","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1435,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":658139846,"gmtCreate":1682460186785,"gmtModify":1682460188532,"author":{"id":"3583544396400063","authorId":"3583544396400063","name":"千里独行侠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1903c41ef8ea076dd0a596a6c4b87842","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583544396400063","authorIdStr":"3583544396400063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"有钱咱们也可以玩一把,预计真正商业化时间不会太短","listText":"有钱咱们也可以玩一把,预计真正商业化时间不会太短","text":"有钱咱们也可以玩一把,预计真正商业化时间不会太短","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/658139846","repostId":"1154400387","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154400387","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1682419663,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1154400387?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-04-25 18:47","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"十年内有望突破?千倍回报?盖茨、贝索斯们正在下注","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154400387","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"AI之后,更热门的赛道诞生!","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><strong>AI之后,更热门的赛道诞生!</strong></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">回到两周前,由我国自主研制的新一代可控核聚变研究装置EAST实现等离子体稳定运行403秒,创造了托卡马克装置稳态高约束模式运行新的世界纪录。403秒,也意味着我们距离核聚变商业化又近了一步。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23f286c946b6f9135ff5d5e70ff77633\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"446\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">研究认为可能还需要几十年才能实现这一目标,<strong>但在投资领域,大佬们可能更加乐观。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而事实上,大佬们正押注核聚变商业化将在未来几年内成为现实,<strong>核聚变领域正上演一场投资盛宴</strong>:</p><blockquote>OpenAI首席执行官Sam Altman向一家名为Helion Energy的核聚变初创公司投入了3.75亿美元,硅谷“创投教父”Peter Thiel也投资了这家公司,微软创始人比尔·盖茨和Salesforce联合创始人Marc Benioff投资了从麻省理工学院独立出来的核聚变初创公司Commonwealth Fusion Systems,亚马逊创始人杰夫·贝索斯则投资了加拿大核聚变公司General Fusion。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外,核聚变工业协会(Fusion Industry Association)发现,<strong>核聚变企业获得了超过50亿美元的私人融资,其中7家公司至少筹集了2亿美元。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">硅谷数据研究机构Pitch Book的数据显示,<strong>自2021年以来,核聚变领域75%的融合资金筹集活动已经开启。</strong></p><h2>核聚变是什么?十年内实现商业化?</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">简单来说,两个较轻的原子核聚合成一个较重的原子核,并释放巨大的能量,这一过程就叫做核聚变,又称核融合。太阳就是靠核聚变反应给太阳系带来光和热。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2286a4c5f37b55d4b6071cef2c5e015f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"403\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">由于核聚变反应产生的放射性废物要远少于核裂变反应,也没有熔毁风险,长期以来,核聚变能源被外界视为一种清洁能源,能够替代石油、天然气、煤炭等化石燃料。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不仅如此,<strong>核聚变能源还是一种”取之不尽用之不竭”的能源。</strong>核聚变产生的能量是核裂变反应的四倍。理论上只要有几克反应物,就有可能产生一太(万亿)焦耳的能量,大约是发达国家的一个人在60年内所需要的能量。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f9f13d431827a8385b1a0677230b331\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"399\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但由于技术难度空前,商业核聚变发电何时实现这一问题的答案依然模糊不清,10年、20年还是50年?</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">以至于业内长期流传着这样一个笑话:<strong>核聚变是一项距离成功“永远还有50年”的技术。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">直到去年年底,核聚变迎来了一项历时性转折。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国加州劳伦斯利弗莫尔国家实验室(LLNL)的科学家们从一个实验性核聚变反应堆中实现了净能量增益,即产生的能源大于消耗的能源。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当时,美国能源部长Jennifer M. Granholm兴奋地表示,如果核融合能源推进顺利的话,就能用它为交通、工业提供燃料。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">格兰霍姆还说,<strong>美国计划在10年内实现核聚变能源商业化。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过,LLNL实验室主任Kim Budil则表示,<strong>该技术可能需要“数十年”才能实现商业化。</strong></p><h2>乐观的投资人:赚一千倍?</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">投资机构Lowercarbon Capital公司创始合伙人Clay Dumas表示,<strong>核聚变正处于一个转折点</strong>,因为无论设计如何,它都在取得里程碑式的技术成就。</p><blockquote>计算能力的增长和材料科学的突破加速了他们的进步,比任何人预期的都要快。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Lowercarbon Capital由Twitter和Uber早期风险投资人Chris Sacca创立,去年推出了一只核聚变基金,投资者包括捐赠基金、企业和家族理财室。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在该机构的投资名单中,有一家名叫Avalanche Energy的<strong>微型核聚变装置</strong>开发公司,目前已完成了4000万美元的首轮融资。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3499f4517553093260ebc0d9e46ef28\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"488\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Avalanche Energy首席执行官Robin Langtry说:</p><blockquote>我们想建造世界上最小的核聚变反应堆。我们谈论的项目可能是数千万美元,而不是数十亿美元,你实际上可以用一个小团队做到这一点。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前,Avalanche Energy已经拿到了美国国防部的订单。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国国防部等离子体物理学家、空军少校Ryan Weed说,希望在未来五年内的某个时候,能够利用一个烤箱或微波炉大小的设备提供电力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在投资人看来,核聚变一旦实现商业化,其带来的利润将是天量的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">软件公司太阳微系统公司创始人Vinod Khosla,OpenAI的投资人,核聚变私人企业的早期投资者,他说:</p><blockquote><strong>在财务上,要么损失一倍的钱,要么赚一千倍的钱。这就是核聚变的数学。</strong></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Khosl希望能建造一个大型高温超导磁体核聚变反应堆,目前正在投资从威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校独立出来的核聚变公司Realta Fusion。</p><h2>谁能成为下一家OpenAI?</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于这一问题,非营利研究机构Energy Futures Initiative首席执行官、前美国能源部长、物理学家Ernest Moniz表示:</p><blockquote>合理的情况是,在这十年里,至少有一两家公司开发出(可商用)核聚变装置。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Moniz说,大规模机器学习加速了实验进程,并帮助几家公司达到或接近聚变反应所需的极端温度和压力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">那么,哪一家公司能够脱颖而出成为核聚变领域的OpenAI呢?对此,华尔街见闻整理了当前最炙手可热的核聚变初创公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Helion Energy</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">创立于2013年,总部在华盛顿州,Helion Energy计划在2024年早出核聚变发电机。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Helion Energy采用的是一种叫磁惯性的技术引发聚变反应,首席商务官Scott Krisiloff曾说,这种方法相较于大型托卡马克或蒸汽循环能更有效地利用能量。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/020be88b8ce5542c3bc4e7cfc1e60630\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"287\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"> </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">截至目前,Helion Energy已经筹集了5.77亿美元,除了Altman之外,Peter Thiel、eBay前总裁Jeff Skoll、Facebook联合创始人Dustin Moskovitz都是它的投资人。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Zap Energy</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Zap Energy成立于2017年,总部位于西雅图,是华盛顿大学和LLNL的衍生公司,致力于通过模块化、车库大小的反应堆使其商业化。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5616fb8a554fbc0554f51af98e785ed\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"528\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Zap Energy采用一种叫剪切流的技术实现聚变反应,据称,这种方法将能够使公司生产50兆瓦的小型反应堆,足以为大约4万户美国家庭供电。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">截至目前,Zap Energy已经筹集了2.03亿美元资金,投资人包括盖茨和石油巨头壳牌。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tokamak Energy</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">成立于2009年,总部位于英国牛津郡,Tokamak Energy正在研究世界上第一个大规模使用HTS磁体的球形托卡马克,并计划在2030年代初期建立一个聚变试验工厂。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36e97887a70447b8b7b76c3c3ae861cd\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"706\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">为实现这一目标,Tokamak Energy计划在2026年完成建造ST80-HTS原型聚变装置。 </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/816d598d420e2d702988b531f4d4dc0c\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"575\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">今年2月份,Tokamak Energy完成建造了世界第一套新一代HTS磁体,可在聚变电厂相关场景中进行组装和测试。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Tokamak Energy目前已经筹集2.5亿美元,它还接受了美国、英国政府的多项资助。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Marvel Fusion</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">成立仅4年时间,总部位于德国慕尼黑,Marvel Fusion正在开发激光驱动的聚变技术(该技术可追溯到1960年代),包括使用激光束来创造“人造太阳”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e4b765aaf2d4dcdc7bc62d32875950d\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"312\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公司称,其聚变技术比美国国家点火设施(NIF)的激光器要领先20年,目标在未来5-10年内将其技术商业化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Marvel Fusion计划在年底前完成建造其第一座聚变反应堆原型。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">迄今为止,Marvel Fusion已累计融资超6000万欧元,而该公司希望再筹集3.5亿欧元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>General Fusion</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">General Fusion成立于2002年,总部位于加拿大温哥华。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公司正在研究通过美国海军研究实验室于1970年代提出的磁化目标聚变 (MTF) 方法产生能量,并计划在2030年代初期建造一座聚变能源发电厂。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">今年1月,General Fusion位于英国牛津郡附近的聚变示范工厂 (FDP) 获得规划许可,预计年内动工,不过该工厂不会用于发电。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5609763e5d76cc3abcbdd2f69f1d22\" tg-width=\"555\" tg-height=\"406\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"> </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">截至目前,General Fusion已经获得了3亿美元的投资,投资人包括Shopify创始人Tobias Lütke、贝索斯。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>TAE Technologies</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">TAE Technologies,原名Tri Alpha Energy,成立于1998年,总部位于美国加利福尼亚州,主要专注于核聚变发电、电能储存与管理技术、粒子加速器技术等方面实现核聚变商用。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>TAE是目前全球最大的核聚变私营公司,目前有两代平台仍在持续研发中,</strong>分别是Copernicus平台和国家实验室规格的Norman平台。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17917dceac0b526fc15d518ab28728e1\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"295\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5135aaae468d34fdb03b4804d35ffc04\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"310\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公司旗下Da Vinci装置计划将在2030年代初开始向电网供电。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">TAE正在研究让氢与硼发生核聚变反应来发电,为此,公司开发了场反转配置技术实现对核聚变等离子体的高温稳定控制。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">今年2月,TAE 宣布和日本国家聚变科学研究所完成了磁约束等离子体中氢硼燃料循环的首次测试,这一新燃料循环比传统的氘氚基工艺生产的更清洁、更廉价。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">截至目前,TAE获得了12亿美元的投资,主要投资方包括谷歌、雪佛龙和日本住友商事。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Commonwealth Fusion Systems</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Commonwealth Fusion Systems(CFS)是麻省理工学院独立出来的核聚变初创企业,成立于2018年,总部位于美国马萨诸塞州。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">CFS正在开发一个ARC核聚变反应堆(一种托卡马克反应堆)设计的聚变发电装置,该发电装置使用高温超导磁铁来限制等离子体。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">CFS计划到2025年建造一个名为SPARC的原型反应堆,并在30年代建造一座商业聚变发电厂ARC。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4525bf8aca754f6ce4dd932b6ec8c7da\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"311\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">截至目前,CFS已经获得22亿美元的投资,背后投资方包括盖茨、索罗斯、Marc Benioff、谷歌母公司Alphabet、意大利能源公司Eni等多位大佬和巨头。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>核聚变投资,国外热闹非凡,国内也并不安静。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">去年2月,<strong>能量奇点宣布获得近4亿元投资,</strong>米哈游和蔚来共同领投,红杉种子基金也有投资。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">彼时,距离能量奇点成立才仅仅半年。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">资料显示,能量奇点成立于2021年6月,“聚焦于研制有商业发电潜力的高磁场、高参数、标准化的高温超导托卡马克装置及其运行控制软件系统,为未来商业聚变发电堆提供高性价比、高可靠性的核心组件和服务”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2022年3月,能量奇点宣布与我国老牌研究机构核工业西南物理研究院签署了协议,双方计划共同研发全球首台基于全高温超导磁体的托卡马克,以实现长时稳态运行的科学和工程目标。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同年6月,<strong>星环聚能宣布完成天使轮融资</strong>,投资机构包括中科创星、顺为资本、红杉种子基金等知名投资机构。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">星环聚能成立于2021年,目标是建成商业可控聚变堆,开发小型化、商业化、快速迭代的可控聚变能装置。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>十年内有望突破?千倍回报?盖茨、贝索斯们正在下注</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n十年内有望突破?千倍回报?盖茨、贝索斯们正在下注\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-25 18:47 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687400><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AI之后,更热门的赛道诞生!回到两周前,由我国自主研制的新一代可控核聚变研究装置EAST实现等离子体稳定运行403秒,创造了托卡马克装置稳态高约束模式运行新的世界纪录。403秒,也意味着我们距离核聚变商业化又近了一步。研究认为可能还需要几十年才能实现这一目标,但在投资领域,大佬们可能更加乐观。而事实上,大佬们正押注核聚变商业化将在未来几年内成为现实,核聚变领域正上演一场投资盛宴:OpenAI首席...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687400\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2286a4c5f37b55d4b6071cef2c5e015f","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687400","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154400387","content_text":"AI之后,更热门的赛道诞生!回到两周前,由我国自主研制的新一代可控核聚变研究装置EAST实现等离子体稳定运行403秒,创造了托卡马克装置稳态高约束模式运行新的世界纪录。403秒,也意味着我们距离核聚变商业化又近了一步。研究认为可能还需要几十年才能实现这一目标,但在投资领域,大佬们可能更加乐观。而事实上,大佬们正押注核聚变商业化将在未来几年内成为现实,核聚变领域正上演一场投资盛宴:OpenAI首席执行官Sam Altman向一家名为Helion Energy的核聚变初创公司投入了3.75亿美元,硅谷“创投教父”Peter Thiel也投资了这家公司,微软创始人比尔·盖茨和Salesforce联合创始人Marc Benioff投资了从麻省理工学院独立出来的核聚变初创公司Commonwealth Fusion Systems,亚马逊创始人杰夫·贝索斯则投资了加拿大核聚变公司General Fusion。此外,核聚变工业协会(Fusion Industry Association)发现,核聚变企业获得了超过50亿美元的私人融资,其中7家公司至少筹集了2亿美元。硅谷数据研究机构Pitch Book的数据显示,自2021年以来,核聚变领域75%的融合资金筹集活动已经开启。核聚变是什么?十年内实现商业化?简单来说,两个较轻的原子核聚合成一个较重的原子核,并释放巨大的能量,这一过程就叫做核聚变,又称核融合。太阳就是靠核聚变反应给太阳系带来光和热。由于核聚变反应产生的放射性废物要远少于核裂变反应,也没有熔毁风险,长期以来,核聚变能源被外界视为一种清洁能源,能够替代石油、天然气、煤炭等化石燃料。不仅如此,核聚变能源还是一种”取之不尽用之不竭”的能源。核聚变产生的能量是核裂变反应的四倍。理论上只要有几克反应物,就有可能产生一太(万亿)焦耳的能量,大约是发达国家的一个人在60年内所需要的能量。但由于技术难度空前,商业核聚变发电何时实现这一问题的答案依然模糊不清,10年、20年还是50年?以至于业内长期流传着这样一个笑话:核聚变是一项距离成功“永远还有50年”的技术。直到去年年底,核聚变迎来了一项历时性转折。美国加州劳伦斯利弗莫尔国家实验室(LLNL)的科学家们从一个实验性核聚变反应堆中实现了净能量增益,即产生的能源大于消耗的能源。当时,美国能源部长Jennifer M. Granholm兴奋地表示,如果核融合能源推进顺利的话,就能用它为交通、工业提供燃料。格兰霍姆还说,美国计划在10年内实现核聚变能源商业化。不过,LLNL实验室主任Kim Budil则表示,该技术可能需要“数十年”才能实现商业化。乐观的投资人:赚一千倍?投资机构Lowercarbon Capital公司创始合伙人Clay Dumas表示,核聚变正处于一个转折点,因为无论设计如何,它都在取得里程碑式的技术成就。计算能力的增长和材料科学的突破加速了他们的进步,比任何人预期的都要快。Lowercarbon Capital由Twitter和Uber早期风险投资人Chris Sacca创立,去年推出了一只核聚变基金,投资者包括捐赠基金、企业和家族理财室。在该机构的投资名单中,有一家名叫Avalanche Energy的微型核聚变装置开发公司,目前已完成了4000万美元的首轮融资。Avalanche Energy首席执行官Robin Langtry说:我们想建造世界上最小的核聚变反应堆。我们谈论的项目可能是数千万美元,而不是数十亿美元,你实际上可以用一个小团队做到这一点。目前,Avalanche Energy已经拿到了美国国防部的订单。美国国防部等离子体物理学家、空军少校Ryan Weed说,希望在未来五年内的某个时候,能够利用一个烤箱或微波炉大小的设备提供电力。在投资人看来,核聚变一旦实现商业化,其带来的利润将是天量的。软件公司太阳微系统公司创始人Vinod Khosla,OpenAI的投资人,核聚变私人企业的早期投资者,他说:在财务上,要么损失一倍的钱,要么赚一千倍的钱。这就是核聚变的数学。Khosl希望能建造一个大型高温超导磁体核聚变反应堆,目前正在投资从威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校独立出来的核聚变公司Realta Fusion。谁能成为下一家OpenAI?对于这一问题,非营利研究机构Energy Futures Initiative首席执行官、前美国能源部长、物理学家Ernest Moniz表示:合理的情况是,在这十年里,至少有一两家公司开发出(可商用)核聚变装置。Moniz说,大规模机器学习加速了实验进程,并帮助几家公司达到或接近聚变反应所需的极端温度和压力。那么,哪一家公司能够脱颖而出成为核聚变领域的OpenAI呢?对此,华尔街见闻整理了当前最炙手可热的核聚变初创公司。Helion Energy创立于2013年,总部在华盛顿州,Helion Energy计划在2024年早出核聚变发电机。Helion Energy采用的是一种叫磁惯性的技术引发聚变反应,首席商务官Scott Krisiloff曾说,这种方法相较于大型托卡马克或蒸汽循环能更有效地利用能量。 截至目前,Helion Energy已经筹集了5.77亿美元,除了Altman之外,Peter Thiel、eBay前总裁Jeff Skoll、Facebook联合创始人Dustin Moskovitz都是它的投资人。Zap EnergyZap Energy成立于2017年,总部位于西雅图,是华盛顿大学和LLNL的衍生公司,致力于通过模块化、车库大小的反应堆使其商业化。Zap Energy采用一种叫剪切流的技术实现聚变反应,据称,这种方法将能够使公司生产50兆瓦的小型反应堆,足以为大约4万户美国家庭供电。截至目前,Zap Energy已经筹集了2.03亿美元资金,投资人包括盖茨和石油巨头壳牌。Tokamak Energy成立于2009年,总部位于英国牛津郡,Tokamak Energy正在研究世界上第一个大规模使用HTS磁体的球形托卡马克,并计划在2030年代初期建立一个聚变试验工厂。为实现这一目标,Tokamak Energy计划在2026年完成建造ST80-HTS原型聚变装置。 今年2月份,Tokamak Energy完成建造了世界第一套新一代HTS磁体,可在聚变电厂相关场景中进行组装和测试。Tokamak Energy目前已经筹集2.5亿美元,它还接受了美国、英国政府的多项资助。Marvel Fusion成立仅4年时间,总部位于德国慕尼黑,Marvel Fusion正在开发激光驱动的聚变技术(该技术可追溯到1960年代),包括使用激光束来创造“人造太阳”。公司称,其聚变技术比美国国家点火设施(NIF)的激光器要领先20年,目标在未来5-10年内将其技术商业化。Marvel Fusion计划在年底前完成建造其第一座聚变反应堆原型。迄今为止,Marvel Fusion已累计融资超6000万欧元,而该公司希望再筹集3.5亿欧元。General FusionGeneral Fusion成立于2002年,总部位于加拿大温哥华。公司正在研究通过美国海军研究实验室于1970年代提出的磁化目标聚变 (MTF) 方法产生能量,并计划在2030年代初期建造一座聚变能源发电厂。今年1月,General Fusion位于英国牛津郡附近的聚变示范工厂 (FDP) 获得规划许可,预计年内动工,不过该工厂不会用于发电。 截至目前,General Fusion已经获得了3亿美元的投资,投资人包括Shopify创始人Tobias Lütke、贝索斯。TAE TechnologiesTAE Technologies,原名Tri Alpha Energy,成立于1998年,总部位于美国加利福尼亚州,主要专注于核聚变发电、电能储存与管理技术、粒子加速器技术等方面实现核聚变商用。TAE是目前全球最大的核聚变私营公司,目前有两代平台仍在持续研发中,分别是Copernicus平台和国家实验室规格的Norman平台。公司旗下Da Vinci装置计划将在2030年代初开始向电网供电。TAE正在研究让氢与硼发生核聚变反应来发电,为此,公司开发了场反转配置技术实现对核聚变等离子体的高温稳定控制。今年2月,TAE 宣布和日本国家聚变科学研究所完成了磁约束等离子体中氢硼燃料循环的首次测试,这一新燃料循环比传统的氘氚基工艺生产的更清洁、更廉价。截至目前,TAE获得了12亿美元的投资,主要投资方包括谷歌、雪佛龙和日本住友商事。Commonwealth Fusion SystemsCommonwealth Fusion Systems(CFS)是麻省理工学院独立出来的核聚变初创企业,成立于2018年,总部位于美国马萨诸塞州。CFS正在开发一个ARC核聚变反应堆(一种托卡马克反应堆)设计的聚变发电装置,该发电装置使用高温超导磁铁来限制等离子体。CFS计划到2025年建造一个名为SPARC的原型反应堆,并在30年代建造一座商业聚变发电厂ARC。截至目前,CFS已经获得22亿美元的投资,背后投资方包括盖茨、索罗斯、Marc Benioff、谷歌母公司Alphabet、意大利能源公司Eni等多位大佬和巨头。核聚变投资,国外热闹非凡,国内也并不安静。去年2月,能量奇点宣布获得近4亿元投资,米哈游和蔚来共同领投,红杉种子基金也有投资。彼时,距离能量奇点成立才仅仅半年。资料显示,能量奇点成立于2021年6月,“聚焦于研制有商业发电潜力的高磁场、高参数、标准化的高温超导托卡马克装置及其运行控制软件系统,为未来商业聚变发电堆提供高性价比、高可靠性的核心组件和服务”。2022年3月,能量奇点宣布与我国老牌研究机构核工业西南物理研究院签署了协议,双方计划共同研发全球首台基于全高温超导磁体的托卡马克,以实现长时稳态运行的科学和工程目标。同年6月,星环聚能宣布完成天使轮融资,投资机构包括中科创星、顺为资本、红杉种子基金等知名投资机构。星环聚能成立于2021年,目标是建成商业可控聚变堆,开发小型化、商业化、快速迭代的可控聚变能装置。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1558,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":658914482,"gmtCreate":1682333257646,"gmtModify":1682333258991,"author":{"id":"3583544396400063","authorId":"3583544396400063","name":"千里独行侠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1903c41ef8ea076dd0a596a6c4b87842","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583544396400063","authorIdStr":"3583544396400063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ </a><v-v 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今晚估计要跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/653114825","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":659810159,"gmtCreate":1679948138871,"gmtModify":1679948140336,"author":{"id":"3583544396400063","authorId":"3583544396400063","name":"千里独行侠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1903c41ef8ea076dd0a596a6c4b87842","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583544396400063","authorIdStr":"3583544396400063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看看这几个股票啥时候跌到谷底","listText":"看看这几个股票啥时候跌到谷底","text":"看看这几个股票啥时候跌到谷底","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/659810159","repostId":"2322557424","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2322557424","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1679923999,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2322557424?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-27 21:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"热门中概股多数下跌,拼多多跌4%,百度、爱奇艺跌超3%,京东跌超2%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2322557424","media":"和讯","summary":"快讯摘要热门中概股多数下跌,拼多多跌4%,百度、爱奇艺跌超3%,京东跌超2%。快讯正文热门中概股多数下跌,拼多多跌4%,百度、爱奇艺跌超3%,京东跌超2%。下载和讯APP查看快讯,体验更佳>>","content":"<html><body><article><p><strong>快讯摘要</strong></p><p>热门中概股多数下跌,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>跌4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>跌超3%,京东跌超2%。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20230327213806510v1848tan397nrsr\"/><p><strong>快讯正文</strong></p><p>热门中概股多数下跌,拼多多跌4%,百度、爱奇艺跌超3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>跌超2%。下载和讯APP查看快讯,体验更佳>></p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20230327213808841ede29&s=b><strong>和讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>快讯摘要热门中概股多数下跌,拼多多跌4%,百度、爱奇艺跌超3%,京东跌超2%。快讯正文热门中概股多数下跌,拼多多跌4%,百度、爱奇艺跌超3%,京东跌超2%。下载和讯APP查看快讯,体验更佳>></p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20230327213808841ede29&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0516422952.EUR":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"I\" (EUR) ACC","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00B0JY6N72.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE0034224299.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China 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21:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"开盘 | 阿里巴巴涨逾5%,Affirm Holdings跌近12%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180411900","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月26日,美股三大指数几乎平开,道指上涨0.11%,纳指跌0.07%,标普500指数涨0.05%。中概股普遍走强,拼多多、阿里巴巴涨约5%,京东涨约3%。此前中美监管机构签署合作协议,依法推进跨境审","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>8月26日,美股三大指数几乎平开,道指上涨0.11%,纳指跌0.07%,标普500指数涨0.05%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6de54532b1a70109d7da87a588f8326b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>中概股普遍走强,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>涨约5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>涨约3%。此前中美监管机构签署合作协议,依法推进跨境审计监管合作。</p><p>抗癌药生产商Seagen跌近8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">默沙东</a>(MRK.N)收购Seagen的谈判据悉陷入僵局,仍未就价格达成一致。</p><p>Affirm Holdings跌近12%,2023财年Q1及全年业绩指引不及预期。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-08-26 21:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>8月26日,美股三大指数几乎平开,道指上涨0.11%,纳指跌0.07%,标普500指数涨0.05%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6de54532b1a70109d7da87a588f8326b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>中概股普遍走强,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>涨约5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>涨约3%。此前中美监管机构签署合作协议,依法推进跨境审计监管合作。</p><p>抗癌药生产商Seagen跌近8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">默沙东</a>(MRK.N)收购Seagen的谈判据悉陷入僵局,仍未就价格达成一致。</p><p>Affirm Holdings跌近12%,2023财年Q1及全年业绩指引不及预期。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4503":"景林资产持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4502":"阿里概念","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","AFRM":"Affirm Holdings, Inc.","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4565":"NFT概念","BABA":"阿里巴巴","BK4106":"数据处理与外包服务","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4558":"双十一","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4524":"宅经济概念",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180411900","content_text":"8月26日,美股三大指数几乎平开,道指上涨0.11%,纳指跌0.07%,标普500指数涨0.05%。中概股普遍走强,拼多多、阿里巴巴涨约5%,京东涨约3%。此前中美监管机构签署合作协议,依法推进跨境审计监管合作。抗癌药生产商Seagen跌近8%,默沙东(MRK.N)收购Seagen的谈判据悉陷入僵局,仍未就价格达成一致。Affirm 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