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2021-06-25

Nice

Confluent Prepares For $713 Million IPO

2021-07-04

Wow

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-25

Cool

The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer

2021-06-22

Wow thanks

This Big Tech Stock Is Always on Sale

2021-07-03

$Apple(AAPL)$yyess

2021-07-01

$Apple(AAPL)$137 lets go!

2021-06-26

Wow

Bitcoin falls 8.5% to $31,700

2021-06-24

Wow

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-22

Wow

Oil could spike above $100 next year, Bank of America says

2021-05-08

Good stuff

Here comes the stock buyback explosion: Goldman Sachs

2021-07-13

$Apple(AAPL)$yyesssss

2021-07-07

Interesting

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-28

Yeap

Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price

2021-06-25

I see

Confluent IPO: Everything you need to know about Confluent

2021-06-21

$Apple(AAPL)$market open coming

2021-06-13

$Apple(AAPL)$hhi

2021-07-07

Wow

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-05

$Apple(AAPL)$yay

2021-06-29

$Apple(AAPL)$aanother rally? Pls

2021-06-26

Yes

Is Apple A Better Buy Than Other FAANG Stocks?

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Or down?","listText":"Go up? Or down?","text":"Go up? Or down?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151672891","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151670524,"gmtCreate":1625091605668,"gmtModify":1633945025594,"author":{"id":"3582927631820174","authorId":"3582927631820174","name":"mao1e","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69fd482fe5582beb625c519d3f532457","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582927631820174","authorIdStr":"3582927631820174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>137 lets go!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>137 lets go!","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$137 lets go!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2a78fdc4dbdba9eae46ae8283cb7eaf","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151670524","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":40,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153987902,"gmtCreate":1625005279506,"gmtModify":1633946072830,"author":{"id":"3582927631820174","authorId":"3582927631820174","name":"mao1e","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69fd482fe5582beb625c519d3f532457","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582927631820174","authorIdStr":"3582927631820174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>&nbsp;yaya","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>&nbsp;yaya","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ yaya","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd01f3b544208f3eb77c01c7d65736dc","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153987902","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150501044,"gmtCreate":1624919565088,"gmtModify":1633947158373,"author":{"id":"3582927631820174","authorId":"3582927631820174","name":"mao1e","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69fd482fe5582beb625c519d3f532457","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582927631820174","authorIdStr":"3582927631820174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>aanother rally? Pls","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>aanother rally? Pls","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$aanother rally? Pls","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a24e33425af75751bfe3cdce1a6e082","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150501044","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127975280,"gmtCreate":1624832561340,"gmtModify":1633948362698,"author":{"id":"3582927631820174","authorId":"3582927631820174","name":"mao1e","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69fd482fe5582beb625c519d3f532457","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582927631820174","authorIdStr":"3582927631820174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Overvalued?","listText":"Overvalued?","text":"Overvalued?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d13a23884c57a661ab8a1a659e6089c","width":"1080","height":"2273"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127975280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":70,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127972558,"gmtCreate":1624832426974,"gmtModify":1633948363307,"author":{"id":"3582927631820174","authorId":"3582927631820174","name":"mao1e","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69fd482fe5582beb625c519d3f532457","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582927631820174","authorIdStr":"3582927631820174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeap","listText":"Yeap","text":"Yeap","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127972558","repostId":"1184001921","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184001921","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624763737,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184001921?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184001921","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce i","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.</li>\n <li>Unfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.</li>\n <li>This article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.</li>\n <li>I hope you enjoy.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451bc93115fb453c0fcb76434c40f7f4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Today, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82d937a2de3f0709088e1ab4548267b\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"260\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>You might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.</p>\n<p>In this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.</p>\n<p>Something important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.</p>\n<p>This method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.</p>\n<p>But after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are\n <b>margin of safety</b>.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Rule 1 Investing\n</blockquote>\n<p>This model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.</p>\n<p><b>Business Model</b></p>\n<p>Where does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.</p>\n<p>As a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.</p>\n<p>And later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce022c0ecacc3829cf83378211bbfd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p>\n<p>I projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.</p>\n<p>Hopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.</p>\n<p>Here's a look at Amazon's International segment:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d7a5bde370f55e863f58c888abc496\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p>\n<p>For Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.</p>\n<p>And for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769700013871f2cd09e8ce47cfb10966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>AWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about&nbsp;17.5% CAGR&nbsp;until 2025.</p>\n<p>Additionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.</p>\n<p>These projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.</p>\n<p><b>Capital Allocation</b></p>\n<p>How does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f5afa0f641ee1aae39aa69cc150165\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>The biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.</p>\n<blockquote>\n In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.\n <i>There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Source:2020 10-K&nbsp;page 60,\n <i>emphasis added</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>But for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.</p>\n<p>Amazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.</p>\n<p>Amazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>First, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c036264f19bb10fdad477a629b40f803\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>I used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.</p>\n<p>This model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.</p>\n<p>Right now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95c459abcbda43e35b40379a1083ecae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>Down at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fa0846616fdc847a3fe1fdf7a09bed\" tg-width=\"267\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>Today, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.</p>\n<p>These estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.</p>\n<p>Down at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.</p>\n<p>The model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.</p>\n<p>\"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.</p>\n<p>But the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.</p>\n<p><b>Recap</b></p>\n<p>Today, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.</p>\n<p>But if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.</p>\n<p>Even if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.</p>\n<p>Thank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-27 11:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.\nUnfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184001921","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.\nUnfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.\nThis article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.\nI hope you enjoy.\n\nSundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nToday, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.\nSource: Author\nYou might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.\nIn this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.\nSomething important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.\nThis method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.\nBut after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.\n\n Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are\n margin of safety.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.\n\n\n Rule 1 Investing\n\nThis model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.\nBusiness Model\nWhere does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.\nAs a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.\nAnd later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nI projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.\nHopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.\nHere's a look at Amazon's International segment:\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nFor Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.\nAnd for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:\nSource: Author\nAWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about 17.5% CAGR until 2025.\nAdditionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.\nThese projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.\nCapital Allocation\nHow does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.\nSource: Author\nThe biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.\n\n In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.\n There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.\n\n\n Source:2020 10-K page 60,\n emphasis added\n\nBut for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.\nAmazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.\nAmazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.\nValuation\nFirst, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.\nSource: Author\nI used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.\nThis model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.\nRight now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.\nSource: Author\nDown at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.\nSource: Author\nToday, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.\nThese estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.\nDown at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.\nThe model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.\n\"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.\nBut the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.\nRecap\nToday, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.\nBut if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.\nEven if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.\nThank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":126206233,"gmtCreate":1624572693522,"gmtModify":1634004326327,"author":{"id":"3582927631820174","authorId":"3582927631820174","name":"mao1e","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69fd482fe5582beb625c519d3f532457","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582927631820174","authorIdStr":"3582927631820174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126206233","repostId":"1169202537","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169202537","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624549071,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169202537?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 23:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Confluent Prepares For $713 Million IPO","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169202537","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nConfluent has filed proposed terms for its $713 million IPO.\nThe firm provides an IT infras","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Confluent has filed proposed terms for its $713 million IPO.</li>\n <li>The firm provides an IT infrastructure as a service platform to enterprises globally.</li>\n <li>CFLT has grown revenue and gross profit but is generating high operating losses and the IPO appears expensive, so I'll watch it from the sidelines.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Quick Take</b></p>\n<p>Confluent (CFLT) has filed to raise $713 million in an IPO of its Class A common stock, according to an S-1/Aregistration statement.</p>\n<p>The firm provides data infrastructure as a service to enterprises with complex requirements.</p>\n<p>CFLT is generating high operating losses with no credible path to operating breakeven and the IPO appears expensive, so I'll pass on it.</p>\n<p><b>Company &amp; Technology</b></p>\n<p>Mountain View, California-based Confluent was founded to create a platform enabling companies to more easily build and deploy data-driven applications for real-time use.</p>\n<p>Management is headed by co-founder and CEO Jay Kreps, who was previously a software architect at LinkedIn and was one of the creators of Apache Kafka which Confluent uses as the basis for its system.</p>\n<p>Kafka is used by many companies for high-performance data streaming applications, among other uses.</p>\n<p>The company’s primary offerings include:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Confluent Cloud - SaaS platform</li>\n <li>Confluent Platform - Self-managed system</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Confluent has received at least $574 million in equity investment from investors including Benchmark Capital, Index Ventures, Jun Rao, and Sequoia Capital.</p>\n<p><b>Customer/User Acquisition</b></p>\n<p>The firm pursues relationships primarily with large and medium-sized companies through a direct sales and marketing approach.</p>\n<p>As of March 31, 2021, Confluent had over 560 customers with $100,000 or more in annual recurring revenue across numerous industries including financial services, retail and e-commerce, manufacturing, and media &amp; entertainment.</p>\n<p>Sales and Marketing expenses as a percentage of total revenue have fluctuated as revenues have increased, as the figures below indicate:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5cc76d07fa184ab25908af34e003253\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"315\"></p>\n<p>The Sales and Marketing efficiency rate, defined as how many dollars of additional new revenue are generated by each dollar of Sales and Marketing spend, dropped to 0.4x in the most recent reporting period, as shown in the table below:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ade4d8d84c15ad5b405df3eb76062e01\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"247\"></p>\n<p>The Rule of 40 is a software industry rule of thumb that says that as long as the combined revenue growth rate and EBITDA percentage rate equal or exceed 40%, the firm is on an acceptable growth/EBITDA trajectory.</p>\n<p>CFLT’s most recent calculation was negative (7%) as of March 31, 2021, so the firm needs significant improvement in this regard, per the table below:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4cb9e1ff077aaab8fda94762c10a6dd\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"249\"></p>\n<p>The firm’s dollar-based net revenue retention rate for Q1 2021 was 117% and for all of 2020 was 125%, which are both good results.</p>\n<p>The dollar-based net revenue retention rate metric measures how much additional revenue is generated over time from each cohort of customers, so that a figure over 100% means that the company is generating more revenue from the same customer cohort over time, indicating good product/market fit and efficient sales and marketing efforts.</p>\n<p>Market &amp; Competition</p>\n<p>According to a 2020 marketresearch reportby Allied Market Research, the global market for big data as a service was an estimated $5 billion in 2018 and is forecast to exceed $61 billion by 2026.</p>\n<p>This represents a forecast very strong CAGR of 36.9% from 2019 to 2026.</p>\n<p>The main drivers for this expected growth are the continued transition of enterprises to cloud applications and the need to drive efficiencies across all aspects of the enterprise.</p>\n<p>Also, as companies transition to cloud infrastructures, their systems are becoming more complex and there is a substantial need for vendor reduction to improve integration and lower complexity.</p>\n<p>The infrastructure as a service market [IaaS] is expected to grow by $136 billion from 2021 to 2025, representing a CAGR of 27%, according toResearchAndMarkets.</p>\n<p>Major competitive or other industry participants include:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT)</p></li>\n <li><p>Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)</p></li>\n <li><p>Google (GOOG,GOOGL)</p></li>\n <li><p>TIBCO Streaming</p></li>\n <li><p>Cloudera(NYSE:CLDR)</p></li>\n <li><p>Red Hat</p></li>\n <li><p>Oracle(NYSE:ORCL)</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Financial Performance</p>\n<p>Confluent’s recent financial results can be summarized as follows:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>Growing top line revenue</p></li>\n <li><p>Increasing gross profit and gross margin</p></li>\n <li><p>High and increasing operating losses</p></li>\n <li><p>High cash used in operations</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Below are relevant financial results derived from the firm’s registration statement:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5194e46029ac9b822d272939057e2cdf\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"624\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07fa0bff438bb98cc5b56772e6af6d7f\" tg-width=\"621\" tg-height=\"621\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0e045562404b8ffa6569881a2b62d59\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"620\">As of March 31, 2021, Confluent had $44.1 million in cash and $274.4 million in total liabilities.</p>\n<p>Free cash flow during the twelve months ended March 31, 2021, was negative ($74.2 million).</p>\n<p><b>IPO Details</b></p>\n<p>Confluent intends to raise $713 million in gross proceeds from an IPO of its Class A common stock, offering 23 million shares at a proposed midpoint price of $31.00.</p>\n<p>Class A common stockholders will receive one vote per share and Class shareholders will be entitled to ten votes per share.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 Index no longer admits firms with multiple classes of stock into its index.</p>\n<p>Certain existing shareholders have indicated an interest to purchase shares of up to $112 million in the aggregate at the IPO price.</p>\n<p>Assuming a successful IPO, the company’s enterprise value at IPO would approximate $6.9 billion, excluding the effects of underwriter over-allotment options.</p>\n<p>Excluding effects of underwriter options and private placement shares or restricted stock, if any, the float to outstanding shares ratio will be approximately 9.11%. A figure under 10% is generally considered a ‘low float’ stock which can be subject to significant price volatility.</p>\n<p>Management says it will use the net proceeds from the IPO as follows:</p>\n<blockquote>\n The principal purposes of this offering are to increase our capitalization and financial flexibility and create a public market for our Class A common stock. We intend to use the net proceeds we receive from this offering for general corporate purposes, including working capital, operating expenses, and capital expenditures. We cannot specify with certainty all of the particular uses for the remaining net proceeds to us from this offering. We may also use a portion of the net proceeds for acquisitions of, or strategic investments in, complementary businesses, products, services, or technologies. However, we do not have any agreements or commitments to enter into any material acquisitions or investments at this time. (Source)\n</blockquote>\n<p>Management’s presentation of the company roadshow isavailable here.</p>\n<p>Listed bookrunners of the IPO are Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, BofA Securities, Citigroup, Barclays, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank Securities, UBS Investment Bank, Wells Fargo Securities, Cowen, D.A. Davidson &amp; Co., JMP Securities, KeyBanc Capital Markets and Piper Sandler.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation Metrics</b></p>\n<p>Below is a table of relevant capitalization and valuation figures for the company:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e716bb31dd4f9850fb6b2d45ab87f7b3\" tg-width=\"621\" tg-height=\"711\"></p>\n<p>As a reference, a potential partial public comparable to Confluent would be Cloudera; below is a comparison of their primary valuation metrics:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c053081dcc6ad74cba10a936cd27571\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"419\"></p>\n<p>The firm’s last private market valuation was $4.5 billion in April, 2020, so the IPO will represent an increase in valuation of approximately 53% from that valuation.</p>\n<p>Commentary</p>\n<p>Confluent is seeking public investment capital for its general corporate expansion plans and to provide an ultimate exit for its venture capital firm investors.</p>\n<p>Those investors include top tier firms Benchmark and Sequoia Capital.</p>\n<p>The firm’s financials show strong top line revenue growth and gross profit growth, but high operating losses which are a distinct negative in the current IPO market environment.</p>\n<p>Free cash flow for the twelve months ended March 31, 2021, was negative ($74.2 million), so the company is burning through a lot of cash.</p>\n<p>Sales and Marketing expenses as a percentage of total revenue have fluctuated as revenue has increased; its Sales and Marketing efficiency rate dropped to 0.4x in the most recent reporting period.</p>\n<p>The market opportunity for providing data/infrastructure as a service is very large and expected to grow at a high rate of growth over the coming years, so the firm has strong industry growth dynamics in its favor.</p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley is the lead left underwriter and IPOs led by the firm over the last 12-month period have generated an average return of 26.6% since their IPO. This is a mid-tier performance for all major underwriters during the period.</p>\n<p>The primary risk to the company’s outlook is if one or more of its major platform competitors bundles competing offerings into its existing pricing structure, putting substantial pricing pressure and integration complexity pressure onto Confluent.</p>\n<p>As for valuation, compared to already public and larger partial competitor Cloudera, Confluent is seeking a big premium at IPO.</p>\n<p>Of course, CFLT is growing revenue at a far higher rate of growth, so some of that premium is justified.</p>\n<p>Still, the firm has made no credible progress toward operating breakeven and is producing enormous operating losses.</p>\n<p>Since the IPO valuation is not cheap and the firm is generating high operating losses and cash burn, I'll watch the IPO from the sidelines.</p>\n<p>Expected IPO Pricing Date: June 23, 2021</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nConfluent Prepares For $713 Million IPO\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 23:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435355-confluent-prepares-for-713-million-ipo><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nConfluent has filed proposed terms for its $713 million IPO.\nThe firm provides an IT infrastructure as a service platform to enterprises globally.\nCFLT has grown revenue and gross profit but ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435355-confluent-prepares-for-713-million-ipo\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CFLT":"Confluent, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435355-confluent-prepares-for-713-million-ipo","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1169202537","content_text":"Summary\n\nConfluent has filed proposed terms for its $713 million IPO.\nThe firm provides an IT infrastructure as a service platform to enterprises globally.\nCFLT has grown revenue and gross profit but is generating high operating losses and the IPO appears expensive, so I'll watch it from the sidelines.\n\nQuick Take\nConfluent (CFLT) has filed to raise $713 million in an IPO of its Class A common stock, according to an S-1/Aregistration statement.\nThe firm provides data infrastructure as a service to enterprises with complex requirements.\nCFLT is generating high operating losses with no credible path to operating breakeven and the IPO appears expensive, so I'll pass on it.\nCompany & Technology\nMountain View, California-based Confluent was founded to create a platform enabling companies to more easily build and deploy data-driven applications for real-time use.\nManagement is headed by co-founder and CEO Jay Kreps, who was previously a software architect at LinkedIn and was one of the creators of Apache Kafka which Confluent uses as the basis for its system.\nKafka is used by many companies for high-performance data streaming applications, among other uses.\nThe company’s primary offerings include:\n\nConfluent Cloud - SaaS platform\nConfluent Platform - Self-managed system\n\nConfluent has received at least $574 million in equity investment from investors including Benchmark Capital, Index Ventures, Jun Rao, and Sequoia Capital.\nCustomer/User Acquisition\nThe firm pursues relationships primarily with large and medium-sized companies through a direct sales and marketing approach.\nAs of March 31, 2021, Confluent had over 560 customers with $100,000 or more in annual recurring revenue across numerous industries including financial services, retail and e-commerce, manufacturing, and media & entertainment.\nSales and Marketing expenses as a percentage of total revenue have fluctuated as revenues have increased, as the figures below indicate:\n\nThe Sales and Marketing efficiency rate, defined as how many dollars of additional new revenue are generated by each dollar of Sales and Marketing spend, dropped to 0.4x in the most recent reporting period, as shown in the table below:\n\nThe Rule of 40 is a software industry rule of thumb that says that as long as the combined revenue growth rate and EBITDA percentage rate equal or exceed 40%, the firm is on an acceptable growth/EBITDA trajectory.\nCFLT’s most recent calculation was negative (7%) as of March 31, 2021, so the firm needs significant improvement in this regard, per the table below:\n\nThe firm’s dollar-based net revenue retention rate for Q1 2021 was 117% and for all of 2020 was 125%, which are both good results.\nThe dollar-based net revenue retention rate metric measures how much additional revenue is generated over time from each cohort of customers, so that a figure over 100% means that the company is generating more revenue from the same customer cohort over time, indicating good product/market fit and efficient sales and marketing efforts.\nMarket & Competition\nAccording to a 2020 marketresearch reportby Allied Market Research, the global market for big data as a service was an estimated $5 billion in 2018 and is forecast to exceed $61 billion by 2026.\nThis represents a forecast very strong CAGR of 36.9% from 2019 to 2026.\nThe main drivers for this expected growth are the continued transition of enterprises to cloud applications and the need to drive efficiencies across all aspects of the enterprise.\nAlso, as companies transition to cloud infrastructures, their systems are becoming more complex and there is a substantial need for vendor reduction to improve integration and lower complexity.\nThe infrastructure as a service market [IaaS] is expected to grow by $136 billion from 2021 to 2025, representing a CAGR of 27%, according toResearchAndMarkets.\nMajor competitive or other industry participants include:\n\nMicrosoft(NASDAQ:MSFT)\nAmazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)\nGoogle (GOOG,GOOGL)\nTIBCO Streaming\nCloudera(NYSE:CLDR)\nRed Hat\nOracle(NYSE:ORCL)\n\nFinancial Performance\nConfluent’s recent financial results can be summarized as follows:\n\nGrowing top line revenue\nIncreasing gross profit and gross margin\nHigh and increasing operating losses\nHigh cash used in operations\n\nBelow are relevant financial results derived from the firm’s registration statement:\nAs of March 31, 2021, Confluent had $44.1 million in cash and $274.4 million in total liabilities.\nFree cash flow during the twelve months ended March 31, 2021, was negative ($74.2 million).\nIPO Details\nConfluent intends to raise $713 million in gross proceeds from an IPO of its Class A common stock, offering 23 million shares at a proposed midpoint price of $31.00.\nClass A common stockholders will receive one vote per share and Class shareholders will be entitled to ten votes per share.\nThe S&P 500 Index no longer admits firms with multiple classes of stock into its index.\nCertain existing shareholders have indicated an interest to purchase shares of up to $112 million in the aggregate at the IPO price.\nAssuming a successful IPO, the company’s enterprise value at IPO would approximate $6.9 billion, excluding the effects of underwriter over-allotment options.\nExcluding effects of underwriter options and private placement shares or restricted stock, if any, the float to outstanding shares ratio will be approximately 9.11%. A figure under 10% is generally considered a ‘low float’ stock which can be subject to significant price volatility.\nManagement says it will use the net proceeds from the IPO as follows:\n\n The principal purposes of this offering are to increase our capitalization and financial flexibility and create a public market for our Class A common stock. We intend to use the net proceeds we receive from this offering for general corporate purposes, including working capital, operating expenses, and capital expenditures. We cannot specify with certainty all of the particular uses for the remaining net proceeds to us from this offering. We may also use a portion of the net proceeds for acquisitions of, or strategic investments in, complementary businesses, products, services, or technologies. However, we do not have any agreements or commitments to enter into any material acquisitions or investments at this time. (Source)\n\nManagement’s presentation of the company roadshow isavailable here.\nListed bookrunners of the IPO are Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, BofA Securities, Citigroup, Barclays, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank Securities, UBS Investment Bank, Wells Fargo Securities, Cowen, D.A. Davidson & Co., JMP Securities, KeyBanc Capital Markets and Piper Sandler.\nValuation Metrics\nBelow is a table of relevant capitalization and valuation figures for the company:\n\nAs a reference, a potential partial public comparable to Confluent would be Cloudera; below is a comparison of their primary valuation metrics:\n\nThe firm’s last private market valuation was $4.5 billion in April, 2020, so the IPO will represent an increase in valuation of approximately 53% from that valuation.\nCommentary\nConfluent is seeking public investment capital for its general corporate expansion plans and to provide an ultimate exit for its venture capital firm investors.\nThose investors include top tier firms Benchmark and Sequoia Capital.\nThe firm’s financials show strong top line revenue growth and gross profit growth, but high operating losses which are a distinct negative in the current IPO market environment.\nFree cash flow for the twelve months ended March 31, 2021, was negative ($74.2 million), so the company is burning through a lot of cash.\nSales and Marketing expenses as a percentage of total revenue have fluctuated as revenue has increased; its Sales and Marketing efficiency rate dropped to 0.4x in the most recent reporting period.\nThe market opportunity for providing data/infrastructure as a service is very large and expected to grow at a high rate of growth over the coming years, so the firm has strong industry growth dynamics in its favor.\nMorgan Stanley is the lead left underwriter and IPOs led by the firm over the last 12-month period have generated an average return of 26.6% since their IPO. This is a mid-tier performance for all major underwriters during the period.\nThe primary risk to the company’s outlook is if one or more of its major platform competitors bundles competing offerings into its existing pricing structure, putting substantial pricing pressure and integration complexity pressure onto Confluent.\nAs for valuation, compared to already public and larger partial competitor Cloudera, Confluent is seeking a big premium at IPO.\nOf course, CFLT is growing revenue at a far higher rate of growth, so some of that premium is justified.\nStill, the firm has made no credible progress toward operating breakeven and is producing enormous operating losses.\nSince the IPO valuation is not cheap and the firm is generating high operating losses and cash burn, I'll watch the IPO from the sidelines.\nExpected IPO Pricing Date: June 23, 2021","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":182,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152729791,"gmtCreate":1625358613213,"gmtModify":1633941361553,"author":{"id":"3582927631820174","authorId":"3582927631820174","name":"mao1e","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69fd482fe5582beb625c519d3f532457","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582927631820174","authorIdStr":"3582927631820174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152729791","repostId":"1165340887","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126206097,"gmtCreate":1624572650119,"gmtModify":1634004326571,"author":{"id":"3582927631820174","authorId":"3582927631820174","name":"mao1e","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69fd482fe5582beb625c519d3f532457","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582927631820174","authorIdStr":"3582927631820174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126206097","repostId":"1187819280","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187819280","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624529642,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187819280?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 18:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187819280","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pan","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p>\n<p>Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p>\n<p>Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p>\n<p>And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p>\n<p>While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p>\n<p><b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p>\n<p><b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p>\n<p>Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p>\n<p>Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p>\n<p>The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p>\n<p><b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p>\n<p>Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p>\n<p>Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p>\n<p>What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p>\n<p><b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p>\n<p>Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p>\n<p>Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p>\n<p>Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p>\n<p><b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p>\n<p>For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p>\n<p>The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p>\n<p>Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p>\n<p><b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p>\n<p>Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p>\n<p>Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p>\n<p>But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p>\n<p>Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 18:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187819280","content_text":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.\nTake the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.\nLately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.\nAnd some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.\nWhile some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.\nHere are five big reasons why:\n1. The upgrade cycle is over\nLast summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.\nConsider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.\nThe same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.\n2. Valuations are stretched\nSpeaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.\nTake TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.\nWhat’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.\n3. Delays and shortages\nFuture growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.\nHome improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.\nEven if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.\n4. Inflationary pressures\nFor the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.\nThe cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.\nInflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.\n5. Home-equity hubris\nSpeaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.\nSome of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.\nBut here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.\nAnyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120137220,"gmtCreate":1624313831960,"gmtModify":1634008100721,"author":{"id":"3582927631820174","authorId":"3582927631820174","name":"mao1e","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69fd482fe5582beb625c519d3f532457","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582927631820174","authorIdStr":"3582927631820174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow thanks","listText":"Wow thanks","text":"Wow thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120137220","repostId":"1188659531","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188659531","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624286592,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188659531?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 22:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This Big Tech Stock Is Always on Sale","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188659531","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Tencent’s anchor shareholder Prosus has revealed the value of its $39 billion portfolio of startups—","content":"<blockquote>\n Tencent’s anchor shareholder Prosus has revealed the value of its $39 billion portfolio of startups—and the full extent of its discount problem\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7190040397780616cd6d06eb9b8f423c\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"513\">Getting 50% off isn’t such an unmissable opportunity when there is no end to the discounting in sight.</p>\n<p>Prosus is one of the most valuable tech companies listed in Europeby virtue of its big stakein Chinese internet giant Tencent, bought two decades ago for $34 million and now worth $216 billion, even after two share sales. The Amsterdam-based company also owns a portfolio of e-commerce startups that, like Tencent, have mainly thrived during the pandemic. Prosus revealed an estimate by Deloitte of their valuation for the first time Monday. According to the accounting firm, they are worth in aggregate $39 billion, up from roughly $20 billion a year ago.</p>\n<p>The strong valuation is a double-edged sword. It suggests that Prosus’ operations are headed in the right direction, but it also lays painfully bare the gulf between their value and its stock price. If you add the $39 billion to $216 billion for the Tencent stake, roughly $1 billion for a similar minority stake in Russian internet company Mail.ru and almost $12 billion in net cash, you get an implied equity value of $268 billion for Prosus. Its market capitalization is just $162 billion—a discount of 39%.</p>\n<p>The gap widens further if you step further up the ownership chain. Prosus is majority-owned by South African holding companyNaspers,NPSNY-0.70%whose shares trade roughly 23% below the value of its Prosus stake. Overall, Naspers shareholders are getting less than half the value of the internet businesses and stakes owned by Prosus.</p>\n<p>Such financial inefficiency might present an opportunity if the reasons weren’t so intractable. Naspers, which built the portfolio,spun Prosus offto reduce its own heavy weighting on the South African stock market, which gave portfolio managers an ongoing technical reason to sell its stock. Less than two years later, Naspers is as dominant on the exchange as ever.</p>\n<p>Prosus and Naspers have a new plan to address the problem, involving a cross-shareholding structure that will end in Prosus owning almost half of Naspers. The project received pushback from investors partly for its complexity, forcing the company to issue a public defense. Shareholders vote on the deal next month.</p>\n<p>Complexity may itself be one reason for the discount problem at Naspers and Prosus: Tying themselves in knots to answer one question just raises more. The only real resolution is a breakup, but the companies need their Tencent shares to fund bets on cash-draining industries like food delivery. They raised $14.6 billion by selling just 2% in April.</p>\n<p>Naspers and Prosus have an attractive portfolio, but investors can’t expect the current strategy to deliver anything close to full value for it.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Big Tech Stock Is Always on Sale</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Big Tech Stock Is Always on Sale\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 22:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-big-tech-stock-is-always-on-sale-11624283672><strong>The Wall Street Journal</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tencent’s anchor shareholder Prosus has revealed the value of its $39 billion portfolio of startups—and the full extent of its discount problem\n\nGetting 50% off isn’t such an unmissable opportunity ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-big-tech-stock-is-always-on-sale-11624283672\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PROSF":"Prosus NV"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-big-tech-stock-is-always-on-sale-11624283672","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188659531","content_text":"Tencent’s anchor shareholder Prosus has revealed the value of its $39 billion portfolio of startups—and the full extent of its discount problem\n\nGetting 50% off isn’t such an unmissable opportunity when there is no end to the discounting in sight.\nProsus is one of the most valuable tech companies listed in Europeby virtue of its big stakein Chinese internet giant Tencent, bought two decades ago for $34 million and now worth $216 billion, even after two share sales. The Amsterdam-based company also owns a portfolio of e-commerce startups that, like Tencent, have mainly thrived during the pandemic. Prosus revealed an estimate by Deloitte of their valuation for the first time Monday. According to the accounting firm, they are worth in aggregate $39 billion, up from roughly $20 billion a year ago.\nThe strong valuation is a double-edged sword. It suggests that Prosus’ operations are headed in the right direction, but it also lays painfully bare the gulf between their value and its stock price. If you add the $39 billion to $216 billion for the Tencent stake, roughly $1 billion for a similar minority stake in Russian internet company Mail.ru and almost $12 billion in net cash, you get an implied equity value of $268 billion for Prosus. Its market capitalization is just $162 billion—a discount of 39%.\nThe gap widens further if you step further up the ownership chain. Prosus is majority-owned by South African holding companyNaspers,NPSNY-0.70%whose shares trade roughly 23% below the value of its Prosus stake. Overall, Naspers shareholders are getting less than half the value of the internet businesses and stakes owned by Prosus.\nSuch financial inefficiency might present an opportunity if the reasons weren’t so intractable. Naspers, which built the portfolio,spun Prosus offto reduce its own heavy weighting on the South African stock market, which gave portfolio managers an ongoing technical reason to sell its stock. Less than two years later, Naspers is as dominant on the exchange as ever.\nProsus and Naspers have a new plan to address the problem, involving a cross-shareholding structure that will end in Prosus owning almost half of Naspers. The project received pushback from investors partly for its complexity, forcing the company to issue a public defense. Shareholders vote on the deal next month.\nComplexity may itself be one reason for the discount problem at Naspers and Prosus: Tying themselves in knots to answer one question just raises more. The only real resolution is a breakup, but the companies need their Tencent shares to fund bets on cash-draining industries like food delivery. They raised $14.6 billion by selling just 2% in April.\nNaspers and Prosus have an attractive portfolio, but investors can’t expect the current strategy to deliver anything close to full value for it.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":56,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152416309,"gmtCreate":1625325982501,"gmtModify":1633941472340,"author":{"id":"3582927631820174","authorId":"3582927631820174","name":"mao1e","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69fd482fe5582beb625c519d3f532457","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582927631820174","authorIdStr":"3582927631820174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>yyess","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>yyess","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$yyess","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7db4ecbfeb2ca07e0af2303427222ca4","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152416309","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":21,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151670524,"gmtCreate":1625091605668,"gmtModify":1633945025594,"author":{"id":"3582927631820174","authorId":"3582927631820174","name":"mao1e","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69fd482fe5582beb625c519d3f532457","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582927631820174","authorIdStr":"3582927631820174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>137 lets go!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>137 lets go!","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$137 lets go!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2a78fdc4dbdba9eae46ae8283cb7eaf","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151670524","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":40,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125816297,"gmtCreate":1624667549319,"gmtModify":1633949924698,"author":{"id":"3582927631820174","authorId":"3582927631820174","name":"mao1e","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69fd482fe5582beb625c519d3f532457","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582927631820174","authorIdStr":"3582927631820174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125816297","repostId":"2146500392","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2146500392","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1624658618,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2146500392?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-26 06:03","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Bitcoin falls 8.5% to $31,700","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2146500392","media":"Reuters","summary":"June 25 (Reuters) - Bitcoin dipped 8.51% to $31,699.83 at 22:04 GMT on Friday, losing $2,937.27 from","content":"<p>June 25 (Reuters) - Bitcoin dipped 8.51% to $31,699.83 at 22:04 GMT on Friday, losing $2,937.27 from its previous close.</p>\n<p>Bitcoin, the world's biggest and best-known cryptocurrency, is up 14.3% from the year's low of $27,734 on Jan. 4.</p>\n<p>Ether, the coin linked to the ethereum blockchain network, dropped 7.37 % to $1,843.07 on Friday, losing $146.56 from its previous close.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin falls 8.5% to $31,700</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin falls 8.5% to $31,700\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-26 06:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 25 (Reuters) - Bitcoin dipped 8.51% to $31,699.83 at 22:04 GMT on Friday, losing $2,937.27 from its previous close.</p>\n<p>Bitcoin, the world's biggest and best-known cryptocurrency, is up 14.3% from the year's low of $27,734 on Jan. 4.</p>\n<p>Ether, the coin linked to the ethereum blockchain network, dropped 7.37 % to $1,843.07 on Friday, losing $146.56 from its previous close.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2146500392","content_text":"June 25 (Reuters) - Bitcoin dipped 8.51% to $31,699.83 at 22:04 GMT on Friday, losing $2,937.27 from its previous close.\nBitcoin, the world's biggest and best-known cryptocurrency, is up 14.3% from the year's low of $27,734 on Jan. 4.\nEther, the coin linked to the ethereum blockchain network, dropped 7.37 % to $1,843.07 on Friday, losing $146.56 from its previous close.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":42,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121575365,"gmtCreate":1624486475957,"gmtModify":1634005564753,"author":{"id":"3582927631820174","authorId":"3582927631820174","name":"mao1e","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69fd482fe5582beb625c519d3f532457","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582927631820174","authorIdStr":"3582927631820174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121575365","repostId":"1104273824","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":113,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120110267,"gmtCreate":1624313937959,"gmtModify":1634008099800,"author":{"id":"3582927631820174","authorId":"3582927631820174","name":"mao1e","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69fd482fe5582beb625c519d3f532457","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582927631820174","authorIdStr":"3582927631820174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120110267","repostId":"1132969592","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132969592","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624286146,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1132969592?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 22:35","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Oil could spike above $100 next year, Bank of America says","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132969592","media":"CNBC","summary":"Oil could hit $100 per barrel next year as demand outstrips supply, according to Bank of America.\nTh","content":"<div>\n<p>Oil could hit $100 per barrel next year as demand outstrips supply, according to Bank of America.\nThe firm identified three factors on both the demand and supply side that should support prices into ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/21/oil-could-spike-above-100-next-year-bank-of-america-says.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Oil could spike above $100 next year, Bank of America says</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOil could spike above $100 next year, Bank of America says\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 22:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/21/oil-could-spike-above-100-next-year-bank-of-america-says.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Oil could hit $100 per barrel next year as demand outstrips supply, according to Bank of America.\nThe firm identified three factors on both the demand and supply side that should support prices into ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/21/oil-could-spike-above-100-next-year-bank-of-america-says.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/21/oil-could-spike-above-100-next-year-bank-of-america-says.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1132969592","content_text":"Oil could hit $100 per barrel next year as demand outstrips supply, according to Bank of America.\nThe firm identified three factors on both the demand and supply side that should support prices into 2022. Analysts led by Francisco Blanch pointed to pent up travel demand following more than a year of lockdown, and said that consumers forgoing public transit in favor of private cars will also raise demand for fuel.\nFinally, remote work could lead to more miles driven as consumers hit the road without being restricted by in-office work.\nOn the supply side, Bank of America highlighted policy pressure to curb capex to meet goals outlined in the Paris Agreement, as well as calls from ESG-focused investors to shift dollars toward green energy. Judicial pressures to limit emissions are also growing, with aDutch court rulingin May that Shell must reduce carbon emissions by 45% by 2030.\n“In short, demand is poised to bounce back and supply may not fully keep up, placing OPEC in control of the oil market in 2022,” the firm wrote in a note to clients. OPEC and its oil-producing allies implemented historic production cuts of nearly 10 million barrels per day last year as the pandemic sapped worldwide demand for petroleum products.\nWest Texas Intermediate crude futureshave rallied 80% over the last year and traded around $71.30 per barrel on Monday, whileBrent crude futureswere at $73.50. While Bank of America believes the gains are in for this year, the current market conditions could push Brent to $100 in 2022.\nBlanch anticipates oil demand growing by 11.7 million barrels per day year over year during the second quarter. After that, he sees demand rising by 5.6 million barrels per day for the next three quarters, leading to global demand sitting at 101 million barrels per day by the end of 2022.\n“With the oil market likely to remain in deficit due to this rapid sequential demand increase, we expect pressure on inventories to continue. In our projections, the oil market will likely remain in deficit for the foreseeable future, averaging a shortfall of 0.9 million barrels per day over the next six quarters.”\nThe firm now sees Brent and WTI averaging $68 per barrel and $65 per barrel respectively in 2021. In 2022, those numbers go up to $75 and $71. But at that point, the market will likely respond to the higher prices in the form of reduced demand or U.S. supply coming back online, which means Brent should average $65 in 2023, the firm said.\nAmid this backdrop, Bank of America said its top ideas in the oil patch includeExxon,Occidental,Hess CorporationandDevon Energy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":53,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107956326,"gmtCreate":1620440671765,"gmtModify":1634198753902,"author":{"id":"3582927631820174","authorId":"3582927631820174","name":"mao1e","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69fd482fe5582beb625c519d3f532457","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582927631820174","authorIdStr":"3582927631820174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good stuff","listText":"Good stuff","text":"Good stuff","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107956326","repostId":"1195498199","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195498199","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620440437,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195498199?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-08 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here comes the stock buyback explosion: Goldman Sachs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195498199","media":"雅虎金融","summary":"With corporate cash balances looking flush again as businesses recover from the depths of theCOVID-1","content":"<p>With corporate cash balances looking flush again as businesses recover from the depths of theCOVID-19 pandemic, Goldman Sachs (GS) strategistDavid Kostinthinks a stock buyback \"bonanza\" is on the horizon.</p>\n<p>Kostin estimates a 35% increase in share buybacks this year and a 5% pop in 2022. Share buybacks from U.S. companies through April have tallied $484 billion, more than double the pace at this same point last year. It marks the quickest pace of U.S. buyback announcements to kick off a year since 2016 ($400 billion), according to Goldman's research.</p>\n<p>\"Commentary suggests that the main drivers of this increase are excess cash on balance sheets and positive sentiment on the back of strong financial performance,\" Kostin says.</p>\n<p>S&amp;P 500 (^GSPC) companies currently have a record high $2.7 trillion in cash on their balance sheets, according todatafrom Bloomberg Intelligence.</p>\n<p>And to be sure, some of the country's biggest companies are wasting no time in throwing money at buybacks as a means to juice their stock prices further. Stock buybacks have the effect of reducing the number of shares outstanding, which pumps up earnings per share and usually a company's stock price.</p>\n<p>Tech heavyweight Apple (AAPL) just authorized the repurchase of an additional $90 billion in stock following abanner first quarter of iPhone, iPad and AirPod demand. Insurance giant Travelers (TRV) recently lifted its stock buyback plan by $5 billion.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, others in Corporate America have signaled a strong desire to repurchase shares in coming quarters.</p>\n<p>\"We don’t intend to build up a bunch of excess cash on the balance sheet... and we think that share buybacks are a way to return value to shareholders in a way that is responsible steward of capital, but also maintain a level of balance sheet flexibility for us to continue to be strategic,\" Netflix (NFLX) CFO Spence Neumann told analysts on an April 20 earnings call.</p>\n<p>Netflix has a $5 billion stock buyback authorization in place, and plans to begin buying back shares in the second quarter.</p>\n<p>\"We're buying back stock because our cup runneth over,\" JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon said on an April 14 earnings call. In late December 2020, JPMorgan authorized a new $30 billion stock buyback plan. In the first quarter, the company repurchased $4.3 billion of its stock.</p>","source":"yahoofinance_sg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here comes the stock buyback explosion: Goldman Sachs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere comes the stock buyback explosion: Goldman Sachs\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-08 10:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/here-comes-the-stock-buyback-explosion-goldman-sachs-163731245.html><strong>雅虎金融</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>With corporate cash balances looking flush again as businesses recover from the depths of theCOVID-19 pandemic, Goldman Sachs (GS) strategistDavid Kostinthinks a stock buyback \"bonanza\" is on the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/here-comes-the-stock-buyback-explosion-goldman-sachs-163731245.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/here-comes-the-stock-buyback-explosion-goldman-sachs-163731245.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195498199","content_text":"With corporate cash balances looking flush again as businesses recover from the depths of theCOVID-19 pandemic, Goldman Sachs (GS) strategistDavid Kostinthinks a stock buyback \"bonanza\" is on the horizon.\nKostin estimates a 35% increase in share buybacks this year and a 5% pop in 2022. Share buybacks from U.S. companies through April have tallied $484 billion, more than double the pace at this same point last year. It marks the quickest pace of U.S. buyback announcements to kick off a year since 2016 ($400 billion), according to Goldman's research.\n\"Commentary suggests that the main drivers of this increase are excess cash on balance sheets and positive sentiment on the back of strong financial performance,\" Kostin says.\nS&P 500 (^GSPC) companies currently have a record high $2.7 trillion in cash on their balance sheets, according todatafrom Bloomberg Intelligence.\nAnd to be sure, some of the country's biggest companies are wasting no time in throwing money at buybacks as a means to juice their stock prices further. Stock buybacks have the effect of reducing the number of shares outstanding, which pumps up earnings per share and usually a company's stock price.\nTech heavyweight Apple (AAPL) just authorized the repurchase of an additional $90 billion in stock following abanner first quarter of iPhone, iPad and AirPod demand. Insurance giant Travelers (TRV) recently lifted its stock buyback plan by $5 billion.\nMeanwhile, others in Corporate America have signaled a strong desire to repurchase shares in coming quarters.\n\"We don’t intend to build up a bunch of excess cash on the balance sheet... and we think that share buybacks are a way to return value to shareholders in a way that is responsible steward of capital, but also maintain a level of balance sheet flexibility for us to continue to be strategic,\" Netflix (NFLX) CFO Spence Neumann told analysts on an April 20 earnings call.\nNetflix has a $5 billion stock buyback authorization in place, and plans to begin buying back shares in the second quarter.\n\"We're buying back stock because our cup runneth over,\" JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon said on an April 14 earnings call. In late December 2020, JPMorgan authorized a new $30 billion stock buyback plan. In the first quarter, the company repurchased $4.3 billion of its stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145992859,"gmtCreate":1626185308971,"gmtModify":1633929274924,"author":{"id":"3582927631820174","authorId":"3582927631820174","name":"mao1e","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69fd482fe5582beb625c519d3f532457","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582927631820174","authorIdStr":"3582927631820174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>yyesssss","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>yyesssss","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$yyesssss","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cc5e7d7c1b3126c86b3b43dfb60d9db","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145992859","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140442826,"gmtCreate":1625670392065,"gmtModify":1633938490219,"author":{"id":"3582927631820174","authorId":"3582927631820174","name":"mao1e","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69fd482fe5582beb625c519d3f532457","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582927631820174","authorIdStr":"3582927631820174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140442826","repostId":"2149313847","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":172,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127972558,"gmtCreate":1624832426974,"gmtModify":1633948363307,"author":{"id":"3582927631820174","authorId":"3582927631820174","name":"mao1e","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69fd482fe5582beb625c519d3f532457","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582927631820174","authorIdStr":"3582927631820174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeap","listText":"Yeap","text":"Yeap","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127972558","repostId":"1184001921","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184001921","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624763737,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184001921?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184001921","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce i","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.</li>\n <li>Unfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.</li>\n <li>This article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.</li>\n <li>I hope you enjoy.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451bc93115fb453c0fcb76434c40f7f4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Today, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82d937a2de3f0709088e1ab4548267b\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"260\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>You might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.</p>\n<p>In this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.</p>\n<p>Something important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.</p>\n<p>This method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.</p>\n<p>But after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are\n <b>margin of safety</b>.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Rule 1 Investing\n</blockquote>\n<p>This model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.</p>\n<p><b>Business Model</b></p>\n<p>Where does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.</p>\n<p>As a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.</p>\n<p>And later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce022c0ecacc3829cf83378211bbfd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p>\n<p>I projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.</p>\n<p>Hopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.</p>\n<p>Here's a look at Amazon's International segment:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d7a5bde370f55e863f58c888abc496\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p>\n<p>For Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.</p>\n<p>And for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769700013871f2cd09e8ce47cfb10966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>AWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about&nbsp;17.5% CAGR&nbsp;until 2025.</p>\n<p>Additionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.</p>\n<p>These projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.</p>\n<p><b>Capital Allocation</b></p>\n<p>How does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f5afa0f641ee1aae39aa69cc150165\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>The biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.</p>\n<blockquote>\n In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.\n <i>There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Source:2020 10-K&nbsp;page 60,\n <i>emphasis added</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>But for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.</p>\n<p>Amazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.</p>\n<p>Amazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>First, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c036264f19bb10fdad477a629b40f803\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>I used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.</p>\n<p>This model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.</p>\n<p>Right now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95c459abcbda43e35b40379a1083ecae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>Down at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fa0846616fdc847a3fe1fdf7a09bed\" tg-width=\"267\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>Today, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.</p>\n<p>These estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.</p>\n<p>Down at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.</p>\n<p>The model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.</p>\n<p>\"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.</p>\n<p>But the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.</p>\n<p><b>Recap</b></p>\n<p>Today, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.</p>\n<p>But if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.</p>\n<p>Even if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.</p>\n<p>Thank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-27 11:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.\nUnfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184001921","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.\nUnfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.\nThis article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.\nI hope you enjoy.\n\nSundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nToday, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.\nSource: Author\nYou might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.\nIn this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.\nSomething important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.\nThis method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.\nBut after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.\n\n Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are\n margin of safety.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.\n\n\n Rule 1 Investing\n\nThis model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.\nBusiness Model\nWhere does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.\nAs a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.\nAnd later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nI projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.\nHopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.\nHere's a look at Amazon's International segment:\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nFor Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.\nAnd for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:\nSource: Author\nAWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about 17.5% CAGR until 2025.\nAdditionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.\nThese projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.\nCapital Allocation\nHow does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.\nSource: Author\nThe biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.\n\n In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.\n There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.\n\n\n Source:2020 10-K page 60,\n emphasis added\n\nBut for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.\nAmazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.\nAmazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.\nValuation\nFirst, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.\nSource: Author\nI used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.\nThis model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.\nRight now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.\nSource: Author\nDown at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.\nSource: Author\nToday, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.\nThese estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.\nDown at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.\nThe model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.\n\"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.\nBut the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.\nRecap\nToday, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.\nBut if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.\nEven if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.\nThank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126206966,"gmtCreate":1624572662855,"gmtModify":1634004326449,"author":{"id":"3582927631820174","authorId":"3582927631820174","name":"mao1e","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69fd482fe5582beb625c519d3f532457","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582927631820174","authorIdStr":"3582927631820174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I see","listText":"I see","text":"I see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126206966","repostId":"1159660883","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159660883","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624549526,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159660883?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 23:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Confluent IPO: Everything you need to know about Confluent","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159660883","media":"cityindex","summary":"(Update: June 24, 2021 at 00:24 p.m. ET)\nEvent-streaming business Confluent has raised hundred of mi","content":"<p><i><b>(Update: June 24, 2021 at 00:24 p.m. ET)</b></i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00157d15df44b21026df501534932496\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1868\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Event-streaming business Confluent has raised hundred of millions in recent years to fund its march to revolutionise companies’ data usage. Following the company's IPO, discover more about its background and plans.</p>\n<p><b>When was the Confluent IPO?</b></p>\n<p>Confluent's IPO date on Nasdaq was June 24.&nbsp;The company priced its shares at $36 to raise $828&nbsp;million through an offering of 23 million shares, under the ticker CFLT. This was above the expected range of between $29 and $33, and the company may be set for a valuation of more than $9 billion.</p>\n<p><b>What does Confluent do?</b></p>\n<p>Confluent is a Silicon Valley-based tech company that enables enterprises to access and interpret fluid data in the form of real-time streams, in order to better manage their operations. Information is derived from sensors placed in areas such as manufacturing floors and retail stores, which are used to monitor everything from inventory levels to stock capacity. Then, the information is transferred to a data lake for analysis.</p>\n<p>The company was founded in 2014 by LinkedIn engineers Jay Kreps, Jun Rao and Neha Narkhede, who created Apache Kafka, the open source ‘distributed storage system’ on which Confluent is based. With a $500,000 backing from LinkedIn, the trio rolled out the software platform for early use cases at the professional network, handling data streams with billions of messages.</p>\n<p>However, the ambition was bigger, and the same year the founders secured a $6.9 million round of funding led by venture capital firm Benchmark. The company quickly secured the custom of a range of tech luminaries, from Twitter to Netflix to Uber, which used the service for such functions as real-time analytics and fraud prevention.</p>\n<p>Confluent would go on to raise a further four rounds to the present day, totalling some $456 billion, according to Crunchbase.</p>\n<p>As of most recent 2020 figures, the company’s revenues are in excess of $300 million, with revenue in the first quarter of 2021 jumping 51% from the year previous. The company has around 1,500 employees.</p>\n<p><b>What is Confluent’s competition?</b></p>\n<p>Confluent’s competition comes from the likes of Amazon Web Services, Apache Software Foundation, Cloudera and Microsoft. While the company has partnerships with some of the tech giants (see below) it is also faced with the prospect of competing against many of them. However, the edge may be in Kreps’ assertion that the Apache Kafka system is faster than traditional messaging systems, and hence more suited to large volume data streams.</p>\n<p><b>How does Confluent make money?</b></p>\n<p>Confluent makes money through subscriptions of its products Confluent Cloud, a fully-managed cloud-based software as a service offering, as well as its Confluent Platform, its self-managed multicloud software product. It also sells support licenses for its open-source software, as well as proprietary software, freemium services and other miscellaneous licenses.</p>\n<p><b>What is Confluent 's business strategy?</b></p>\n<p>Confluent’s business strategy is based on the concept of combining on-premises services with managed services, as mentioned above. However, the company reportedly sees the coronavirus pandemic, which resulted in customers needing to advance their digital capabilities on less budget, as accelerating a shift to managed services.</p>\n<p>June 2020 saw the company hire new CFO Steffan Tomlinson, former CFO of Google’s cloud division and armed with a demonstrable track record in IPOs, indicating the company’s appetite for flotation and accelerated growth.</p>\n<p>The company has also initiated partnerships with giant tech incumbents to broaden its reach. In April 2019 it partnered with Google Cloud and integrated Confluent’s managed service with Google Cloud Platform.</p>\n<p>Additionally, November 2020 saw the company announce plans for a partnership with IBM, where the computer manufacturer would be reselling Confluent Platform to its own users.</p>\n<p>Finally, in January 2021 Confluent unveiled a strategic alliance with Microsoft that would allow Confluent Cloud to be accessed as a fully managed service directly available on Microsoft Azure.</p>\n<p><b>Is Confluent profitable?</b></p>\n<p>Confluent is not currency profitable; it reportedly lost $229.8 million in 2020. That year, the company’s losses widened following a jump in operating expenses to $122.5 million, although this was caused mainly by equity compensation to investors.</p>\n<p>As with all highly-capitalised businesses with a significant burn rate, investors will be watchful of the scale of losses and if Confluent’s margins look to trend in the right direction soon.</p>\n<p><b>How much is Confluent worth?</b></p>\n<p>The 2021 Confluent IPO could see a valuation of around $9 billion.</p>\n<p>Prior to that, the most recent valuation in April 2020, when it raised a $250 million series E round of funding, saw Confluent worth $4.5 billion, with a 2019 raise of $125 million equalling a $2.5 billion valuation.</p>\n<p><b>Who owns Confluent?</b></p>\n<p>Confluent is owned by a variety of shareholders, with Benchmark as the largest at 15.3% ownership of Confluent's common stock. Other stakes are held by the likes of Sequoia Capital (9.3%), Index Ventures (13%) and Jun Rao (10.6%). The percentage of the business retained by the founders is unclear.</p>\n<p><b>Who are the directors of Confluent?</b></p>\n<p>Confluent has a number of key personnel that have helped progress the company to its current multi-billion dollar valuation. Here are some of them, correct as of June 21 2021.</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p><b>Position</b></p></td>\n   <td><p><b>Name</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Founder and CEO</p></td>\n   <td><p>Jay Kreps</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Co-founder</p></td>\n   <td><p>Jun Rao</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Chief Financial Officer</p></td>\n   <td><p>Steffan Tomlinson</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Chief Marketing Officer</p></td>\n   <td><p>Stephanie Buscemi</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Chief Product and Engineering Officer</p></td>\n   <td><p>Ganesh Srinivasan</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Chief People Officer</p></td>\n   <td><p>Cheryl Dalrymple</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Chief Customer Officer</p></td>\n   <td><p>Roger Scott</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>Related:&nbsp;</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1169202537\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Confluent Prepares For $713 Million IPO</b></a></p>","source":"lsy1624549625256","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Confluent IPO: Everything you need to know about Confluent</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nConfluent IPO: Everything you need to know about Confluent\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 23:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cityindex.co.uk/market-analysis/confluent-ipo-everything-you-need-to-know-about-confluent/><strong>cityindex</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Update: June 24, 2021 at 00:24 p.m. ET)\nEvent-streaming business Confluent has raised hundred of millions in recent years to fund its march to revolutionise companies’ data usage. Following the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cityindex.co.uk/market-analysis/confluent-ipo-everything-you-need-to-know-about-confluent/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CFLT":"Confluent, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.cityindex.co.uk/market-analysis/confluent-ipo-everything-you-need-to-know-about-confluent/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159660883","content_text":"(Update: June 24, 2021 at 00:24 p.m. ET)\nEvent-streaming business Confluent has raised hundred of millions in recent years to fund its march to revolutionise companies’ data usage. Following the company's IPO, discover more about its background and plans.\nWhen was the Confluent IPO?\nConfluent's IPO date on Nasdaq was June 24. The company priced its shares at $36 to raise $828 million through an offering of 23 million shares, under the ticker CFLT. This was above the expected range of between $29 and $33, and the company may be set for a valuation of more than $9 billion.\nWhat does Confluent do?\nConfluent is a Silicon Valley-based tech company that enables enterprises to access and interpret fluid data in the form of real-time streams, in order to better manage their operations. Information is derived from sensors placed in areas such as manufacturing floors and retail stores, which are used to monitor everything from inventory levels to stock capacity. Then, the information is transferred to a data lake for analysis.\nThe company was founded in 2014 by LinkedIn engineers Jay Kreps, Jun Rao and Neha Narkhede, who created Apache Kafka, the open source ‘distributed storage system’ on which Confluent is based. With a $500,000 backing from LinkedIn, the trio rolled out the software platform for early use cases at the professional network, handling data streams with billions of messages.\nHowever, the ambition was bigger, and the same year the founders secured a $6.9 million round of funding led by venture capital firm Benchmark. The company quickly secured the custom of a range of tech luminaries, from Twitter to Netflix to Uber, which used the service for such functions as real-time analytics and fraud prevention.\nConfluent would go on to raise a further four rounds to the present day, totalling some $456 billion, according to Crunchbase.\nAs of most recent 2020 figures, the company’s revenues are in excess of $300 million, with revenue in the first quarter of 2021 jumping 51% from the year previous. The company has around 1,500 employees.\nWhat is Confluent’s competition?\nConfluent’s competition comes from the likes of Amazon Web Services, Apache Software Foundation, Cloudera and Microsoft. While the company has partnerships with some of the tech giants (see below) it is also faced with the prospect of competing against many of them. However, the edge may be in Kreps’ assertion that the Apache Kafka system is faster than traditional messaging systems, and hence more suited to large volume data streams.\nHow does Confluent make money?\nConfluent makes money through subscriptions of its products Confluent Cloud, a fully-managed cloud-based software as a service offering, as well as its Confluent Platform, its self-managed multicloud software product. It also sells support licenses for its open-source software, as well as proprietary software, freemium services and other miscellaneous licenses.\nWhat is Confluent 's business strategy?\nConfluent’s business strategy is based on the concept of combining on-premises services with managed services, as mentioned above. However, the company reportedly sees the coronavirus pandemic, which resulted in customers needing to advance their digital capabilities on less budget, as accelerating a shift to managed services.\nJune 2020 saw the company hire new CFO Steffan Tomlinson, former CFO of Google’s cloud division and armed with a demonstrable track record in IPOs, indicating the company’s appetite for flotation and accelerated growth.\nThe company has also initiated partnerships with giant tech incumbents to broaden its reach. In April 2019 it partnered with Google Cloud and integrated Confluent’s managed service with Google Cloud Platform.\nAdditionally, November 2020 saw the company announce plans for a partnership with IBM, where the computer manufacturer would be reselling Confluent Platform to its own users.\nFinally, in January 2021 Confluent unveiled a strategic alliance with Microsoft that would allow Confluent Cloud to be accessed as a fully managed service directly available on Microsoft Azure.\nIs Confluent profitable?\nConfluent is not currency profitable; it reportedly lost $229.8 million in 2020. That year, the company’s losses widened following a jump in operating expenses to $122.5 million, although this was caused mainly by equity compensation to investors.\nAs with all highly-capitalised businesses with a significant burn rate, investors will be watchful of the scale of losses and if Confluent’s margins look to trend in the right direction soon.\nHow much is Confluent worth?\nThe 2021 Confluent IPO could see a valuation of around $9 billion.\nPrior to that, the most recent valuation in April 2020, when it raised a $250 million series E round of funding, saw Confluent worth $4.5 billion, with a 2019 raise of $125 million equalling a $2.5 billion valuation.\nWho owns Confluent?\nConfluent is owned by a variety of shareholders, with Benchmark as the largest at 15.3% ownership of Confluent's common stock. Other stakes are held by the likes of Sequoia Capital (9.3%), Index Ventures (13%) and Jun Rao (10.6%). The percentage of the business retained by the founders is unclear.\nWho are the directors of Confluent?\nConfluent has a number of key personnel that have helped progress the company to its current multi-billion dollar valuation. Here are some of them, correct as of June 21 2021.\n\n\n\nPosition\nName\n\n\nFounder and CEO\nJay Kreps\n\n\nCo-founder\nJun Rao\n\n\nChief Financial Officer\nSteffan Tomlinson\n\n\nChief Marketing Officer\nStephanie Buscemi\n\n\nChief Product and Engineering Officer\nGanesh Srinivasan\n\n\nChief People Officer\nCheryl Dalrymple\n\n\nChief Customer Officer\nRoger Scott\n\n\n\nRelated: Confluent Prepares For $713 Million IPO","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":26,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164519696,"gmtCreate":1624228882115,"gmtModify":1634009387574,"author":{"id":"3582927631820174","authorId":"3582927631820174","name":"mao1e","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69fd482fe5582beb625c519d3f532457","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582927631820174","authorIdStr":"3582927631820174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>market open coming","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>market open coming","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$market open coming","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1be145894e7a18db441027eb93f0876d","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164519696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":42,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186556155,"gmtCreate":1623513853177,"gmtModify":1634032215685,"author":{"id":"3582927631820174","authorId":"3582927631820174","name":"mao1e","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69fd482fe5582beb625c519d3f532457","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582927631820174","authorIdStr":"3582927631820174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>hhi","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>hhi","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$hhi","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbc88734d19322a6283c39a58db02a58","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186556155","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140479139,"gmtCreate":1625670578521,"gmtModify":1633938487084,"author":{"id":"3582927631820174","authorId":"3582927631820174","name":"mao1e","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69fd482fe5582beb625c519d3f532457","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582927631820174","authorIdStr":"3582927631820174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140479139","repostId":"1187131398","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":224,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155455668,"gmtCreate":1625450448554,"gmtModify":1633940585052,"author":{"id":"3582927631820174","authorId":"3582927631820174","name":"mao1e","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69fd482fe5582beb625c519d3f532457","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582927631820174","authorIdStr":"3582927631820174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>yay","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>yay","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$yay","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7db4ecbfeb2ca07e0af2303427222ca4","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155455668","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":159,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150501044,"gmtCreate":1624919565088,"gmtModify":1633947158373,"author":{"id":"3582927631820174","authorId":"3582927631820174","name":"mao1e","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69fd482fe5582beb625c519d3f532457","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582927631820174","authorIdStr":"3582927631820174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>aanother rally? Pls","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>aanother rally? Pls","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$aanother rally? Pls","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a24e33425af75751bfe3cdce1a6e082","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150501044","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125818080,"gmtCreate":1624667504540,"gmtModify":1633949926329,"author":{"id":"3582927631820174","authorId":"3582927631820174","name":"mao1e","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69fd482fe5582beb625c519d3f532457","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582927631820174","authorIdStr":"3582927631820174"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125818080","repostId":"1108941456","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108941456","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624664800,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108941456?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-26 07:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple A Better Buy Than Other FAANG Stocks?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108941456","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple undoubtedly is a great company, with a strong brand, excellent margins, and fundamentals, a fortress balance sheet, and massive shareholder returns.Being a great company does not mean that the stock must be a great buy. However, valuations are significantly higher than they were historically.I believe that some of the other FAANG stocks are better, while others are worse. AAPL seems like a solid, but not a spectacular investment at today's valuation.At 26-64x this year's expected net profi","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple undoubtedly is a great company, with a strong brand, excellent margins, and fundamentals, a fortress balance sheet, and massive shareholder returns.</li>\n <li>Being a great company does not mean that the stock must be a great buy. However, valuations are significantly higher than they were historically.</li>\n <li>I believe that some of the other FAANG stocks are better, while others are worse. AAPL seems like a solid, but not a spectacular investment at today's valuation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bb49d385ec6d3044db2f4474cbb2c57\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MagioreStock/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Going with FAANG stocks, i.e. Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), and Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL), has been a winning trade in recent years, as those companies delivered strong gains for their owners. These companies do, however, differ quite a lot from each other in a range of metrics, including growth, valuation, and there are also differences when it comes to each company's specific risks and moat. Apple is the largest company of these in terms of profits and market capitalization, but that does not necessarily make it the best investment. In this report, we will take a look at how Apple compares versus the other FAANG members.</p>\n<p><b>Are FAANG Stocks A Good Investment?</b></p>\n<p>Looking back a couple of years, the answer is pretty clear that FAANG stocks at least<i>were</i>a good investment in the recent past:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae2b8e2b9caf99f74c28bafc10a0a872\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"484\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>With gains of 200% to 460%, these five companies easily trounced the broad market's returns over the same time, and all led to hefty gains, at least tripling an investor's money in just five years. The factors that led to these strong gains do, at least partially, still exist today. Notably, these five companies are generating compelling earnings growth, have leadership positions in the markets they address, possess strong brands that are well-received by consumers, and seem to have strong, long-term-oriented leadership teams.</p>\n<p>These factors are still in place today, which indicates that FAANG stocks could also be good investments in coming years, although investors should, even with high-quality companies, also consider a stock's valuation. Today, these companies do not look extremely cheap in most cases:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef865eea7af4369048432a9c85d1d83\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"540\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>At 26-64x this year's expected net profits, FAANG stocks can't really be called bargains, although the above-average valuations are, at least to some degree, justified due to the above-average earnings growth that these companies do generate. In any case, I doubt that investors owning FAANG stocks today will see 200%-400%+ returns over the next five years, as this seems unlikely for each of these five stocks due to the combination of current valuations and expected earnings growth. This does, however, not mean that FAANG stocks must be bad investments or underperform the market. In fact, in recent articles, I showcased that solid or even quite attractive returns can be expected from&nbsp;Facebook,Amazon, and Apple, even though the 30%-50% annual returns are likely a thing of the past - that's just mathematics, as no stock can grow at that rate forever.</p>\n<p><b>What Investors Can Expect From Apple</b></p>\n<p>Apple Inc. is not the highest-growth FAANG stock at all. Its growth has been solid but not spectacular in the recent past. This isn't a large surprise, as there is only a certain number of consumers that want to buy an iPhone or an iPad, and that amount can't grow by 50% a year for a very long time. Nevertheless, due to some market growth, some price increases, and growth from its services business, Apple should still be able to deliver sizeable revenue growth in the long run. New products such as the car project are a potential wildcard, but at least for the foreseeable future, this will not be a major profit center for the company. Apple also has a very ambitious shareholder return program, and its buybacks are an important factor for its future earnings per share growth. I believe that, overall, a high-single-digit earnings per share growth rate will be very much achievable for Apple in the long run. Combined with some multiple depression that I expect in coming years, as Apple will likely not trade at a high-20s earnings multiple forever, this gets me to a total return estimate&nbsp;in the 7% range. This is significantly less compared to what investors saw over the last couple of years, but on the other hand, 7% annual returns stemming from a strong, stable blue-chip stock such as Apple are not unattractive. I believe that some of the FAANG stocks could deliver stronger returns, primarily Alphabet and Facebook.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Versus Facebook</b></p>\n<p>Both Apple Inc. and Facebook have a great market position, but Facebook is even more dominant in its industry compared to Apple. Apple has, in the smartphone industry, a market share of around 20%, although more in the higher-end segments. Facebook, for comparison, owns four out of the top five social media networks, with Facebook, Instagram, Facebook Messenger, and WhatsApp. Clearly, FB absolutely dominates its industry. Facebook's industry is also growing quicker than the hardware IT markets that Apple serves, which is why Facebook's growth was significantly higher than Apple's growth in the recent past:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fd8043ca75dcb2c38f5ffa427c8c0b9\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Facebook grew its revenue by well above 300% over the last five years, while Apple's revenue grew by a little less than 50%. When we look back at the total return chart at the beginning of this article and compare it to this revenue chart, we see that Apple's returns stemmed from multiple expansion to a large degree, whereas Facebook's stock actually got less expensive over the last five years. Facebook's business growth clearly outpaced its share price gains, which has made its shares less expensive. This also explains why Facebook, today, trades below the long-term median earnings multiple, whereas Apple's valuation is at the higher end of the historic range:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3d49e0007aa77608b2992a9fef2142d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The fact that Facebook trades at a historic discount points to a solid entry price, whereas the same can't be said about Apple. On top of that, Facebook will also grow much faster in the future - at least if the analyst community is correct:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b16c9b3e2eac182d42686bcd8a98fc5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>While Apple is expected to see revenue growth of around 10% over the next two years, Facebook is expected to grow by 40% over the same time. Facebook's earnings per share growth estimate is also materially higher than that of Apple.</p>\n<p>To sum things up, we can say that Facebook is growing much faster, is even more dominant in its industry compared to Apple, and its shares are trading at a discount compared to the historic average, whereas Apple's shares are historically expensive. This combination makes me believe that the total return outlook for Facebook is better compared to that of Apple.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Versus Alphabet</b></p>\n<p>When we compare Apple to Alphabet, the comparison is relatively similar to what we just saw when comparing Applet to Facebook. Alphabet is a company that is growing quicker than Apple, and that can, to a large degree, be explained by its great market position and the higher market growth rate. Online advertising is a market that has been growing quicker than the tablet or smartphone market in recent years, and the same will, I believe, be true in the foreseeable future as well.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6360514d097081c546a0ccacfbdc7af6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Alphabet is forecasted to grow its revenue by more than 30% over the next two years, versus Apple's 10% growth. On top of that, at close to 20%, Alphabet is also expected to grow its earnings per share at a higher rate.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, despite its significantly better growth forecast, Alphabet isn't a lot more expensive compared to Apple. GOOG trades at 29x forward earnings, versus AAPL's 26x forward earnings multiple. Does it make sense for GOOG to trade at a premium of just 10%, while its expected growth is one and a half times as high as that of AAPL? You be the judge, but to me, it seems like the valuation looks better at Alphabet as long as we account for the stronger growth expectations. On top of that, with a net cash position of around $120 billion, Alphabet also has one of the best balance sheets in the world. Apple, for comparison, has a somewhat<i>smaller</i>net cash position of $80 billion, although that still makes for a very strong balance sheet, of course.</p>\n<p>All in all, we can summarize that Alphabet is growing faster today, is expected to grow significantly faster in the next two years and in the long run, has an even better balance sheet and a more dominant market position, and yet it trades at an earnings multiple that is only 10% higher than that of Apple. To me, Alphabet thus looks like the more attractive pick among these two at current prices.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Versus Netflix And Amazon</b></p>\n<p>Looking at the last two remaining companies in the FAANG group, we see that, once again, AAPL is growing at a slower pace. Unless Facebook and Alphabet, however, both Netflix and Amazon are way more expensive than Apple.</p>\n<p>This huge valuation premium offsets, at least to some degree, the higher expected growth, which is why I believe that Netflix and Amazon do not really seem like much better picks compared to Apple:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ccc2536fa3cadf06639a89e0b211b9a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>AMZN and NFLX trade at PEG ratios of 1.8 and 1.9, which does not represent a clear discount compared to AAPL's valuation. On top of that, these two companies do not possess balance sheets that are as strong as that of Apple.</p>\n<p>Netflix, especially, looks significantly worse compared to the other FAANG members in terms of balance sheet strength and cash generation:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d84f013051fbb00b6b488f5cfed66d4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Netflix is the only FAANG member with a meaningful net debt position, and its free cash flows are equal to just 1% of its market capitalization. Netflix grows fast, but to me, it seems doubtful whether the current valuation is justified. Considering that more and more companies are pushing into the streaming market, including Disney (DIS), Amazon, and AT&amp;T(NYSE:T), more competition might hurt Netflix's margins in the future. NFLX thus seems like the worst pick among the five FAANG stocks to me, as it combines a high valuation, weak cash flows, and a somewhat uncertain competitive picture, and I think that is not fully negated by its strong growth alone.</p>\n<p>Amazon has a better market position than Netflix, a better balance sheet, and its valuation, relative to its growth, is a little lower than that of Netflix. I would rate Amazon as more or less equally attractive to Apple, although the two companies are quite different from each other in terms of growth, valuation, and shareholder returns.</p>\n<p><b>Which Is The Best FAANG Stock To Buy?</b></p>\n<p>Not every investor has the same goals, thus the answer may be different depending on what you are looking for in a stock. To me, Apple seems like a solid, but outstanding pick at current prices - the business undoubtedly is strong, the balance sheet is great, shareholder returns are hefty, but the valuation seems stretched, especially when we consider how cheap shares were in the past.</p>\n<p>Alphabet and Facebook do seem like the best FAANG picks to me today, as they combine strong growth with valuations that are only marginally higher than that of Apple. On top of that, both Alphabet and Facebook dominate their markets. Amazon is a stock that I would rate as a solid investment at today's price, so more or less in line with AAPL, whereas Netflix seems like the weakest pick among these five to me.</p>\n<p>Depending on your time horizon, appetite for risk, etc. you may disagree, however - and that's perfectly fine. I'd be glad to hear your top picks and reasoning in the comment section!</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple A Better Buy Than Other FAANG Stocks?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple A Better Buy Than Other FAANG Stocks?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-26 07:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436558-apple-better-buy-faang-stocks><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple undoubtedly is a great company, with a strong brand, excellent margins, and fundamentals, a fortress balance sheet, and massive shareholder returns.\nBeing a great company does not mean ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436558-apple-better-buy-faang-stocks\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436558-apple-better-buy-faang-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108941456","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple undoubtedly is a great company, with a strong brand, excellent margins, and fundamentals, a fortress balance sheet, and massive shareholder returns.\nBeing a great company does not mean that the stock must be a great buy. However, valuations are significantly higher than they were historically.\nI believe that some of the other FAANG stocks are better, while others are worse. AAPL seems like a solid, but not a spectacular investment at today's valuation.\n\nMagioreStock/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nGoing with FAANG stocks, i.e. Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), and Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL), has been a winning trade in recent years, as those companies delivered strong gains for their owners. These companies do, however, differ quite a lot from each other in a range of metrics, including growth, valuation, and there are also differences when it comes to each company's specific risks and moat. Apple is the largest company of these in terms of profits and market capitalization, but that does not necessarily make it the best investment. In this report, we will take a look at how Apple compares versus the other FAANG members.\nAre FAANG Stocks A Good Investment?\nLooking back a couple of years, the answer is pretty clear that FAANG stocks at leastwerea good investment in the recent past:\nData by YCharts\nWith gains of 200% to 460%, these five companies easily trounced the broad market's returns over the same time, and all led to hefty gains, at least tripling an investor's money in just five years. The factors that led to these strong gains do, at least partially, still exist today. Notably, these five companies are generating compelling earnings growth, have leadership positions in the markets they address, possess strong brands that are well-received by consumers, and seem to have strong, long-term-oriented leadership teams.\nThese factors are still in place today, which indicates that FAANG stocks could also be good investments in coming years, although investors should, even with high-quality companies, also consider a stock's valuation. Today, these companies do not look extremely cheap in most cases:\nData by YCharts\nAt 26-64x this year's expected net profits, FAANG stocks can't really be called bargains, although the above-average valuations are, at least to some degree, justified due to the above-average earnings growth that these companies do generate. In any case, I doubt that investors owning FAANG stocks today will see 200%-400%+ returns over the next five years, as this seems unlikely for each of these five stocks due to the combination of current valuations and expected earnings growth. This does, however, not mean that FAANG stocks must be bad investments or underperform the market. In fact, in recent articles, I showcased that solid or even quite attractive returns can be expected from Facebook,Amazon, and Apple, even though the 30%-50% annual returns are likely a thing of the past - that's just mathematics, as no stock can grow at that rate forever.\nWhat Investors Can Expect From Apple\nApple Inc. is not the highest-growth FAANG stock at all. Its growth has been solid but not spectacular in the recent past. This isn't a large surprise, as there is only a certain number of consumers that want to buy an iPhone or an iPad, and that amount can't grow by 50% a year for a very long time. Nevertheless, due to some market growth, some price increases, and growth from its services business, Apple should still be able to deliver sizeable revenue growth in the long run. New products such as the car project are a potential wildcard, but at least for the foreseeable future, this will not be a major profit center for the company. Apple also has a very ambitious shareholder return program, and its buybacks are an important factor for its future earnings per share growth. I believe that, overall, a high-single-digit earnings per share growth rate will be very much achievable for Apple in the long run. Combined with some multiple depression that I expect in coming years, as Apple will likely not trade at a high-20s earnings multiple forever, this gets me to a total return estimate in the 7% range. This is significantly less compared to what investors saw over the last couple of years, but on the other hand, 7% annual returns stemming from a strong, stable blue-chip stock such as Apple are not unattractive. I believe that some of the FAANG stocks could deliver stronger returns, primarily Alphabet and Facebook.\nApple Versus Facebook\nBoth Apple Inc. and Facebook have a great market position, but Facebook is even more dominant in its industry compared to Apple. Apple has, in the smartphone industry, a market share of around 20%, although more in the higher-end segments. Facebook, for comparison, owns four out of the top five social media networks, with Facebook, Instagram, Facebook Messenger, and WhatsApp. Clearly, FB absolutely dominates its industry. Facebook's industry is also growing quicker than the hardware IT markets that Apple serves, which is why Facebook's growth was significantly higher than Apple's growth in the recent past:\nData by YCharts\nFacebook grew its revenue by well above 300% over the last five years, while Apple's revenue grew by a little less than 50%. When we look back at the total return chart at the beginning of this article and compare it to this revenue chart, we see that Apple's returns stemmed from multiple expansion to a large degree, whereas Facebook's stock actually got less expensive over the last five years. Facebook's business growth clearly outpaced its share price gains, which has made its shares less expensive. This also explains why Facebook, today, trades below the long-term median earnings multiple, whereas Apple's valuation is at the higher end of the historic range:\nData by YCharts\nThe fact that Facebook trades at a historic discount points to a solid entry price, whereas the same can't be said about Apple. On top of that, Facebook will also grow much faster in the future - at least if the analyst community is correct:\nData by YCharts\nWhile Apple is expected to see revenue growth of around 10% over the next two years, Facebook is expected to grow by 40% over the same time. Facebook's earnings per share growth estimate is also materially higher than that of Apple.\nTo sum things up, we can say that Facebook is growing much faster, is even more dominant in its industry compared to Apple, and its shares are trading at a discount compared to the historic average, whereas Apple's shares are historically expensive. This combination makes me believe that the total return outlook for Facebook is better compared to that of Apple.\nApple Versus Alphabet\nWhen we compare Apple to Alphabet, the comparison is relatively similar to what we just saw when comparing Applet to Facebook. Alphabet is a company that is growing quicker than Apple, and that can, to a large degree, be explained by its great market position and the higher market growth rate. Online advertising is a market that has been growing quicker than the tablet or smartphone market in recent years, and the same will, I believe, be true in the foreseeable future as well.\nData by YCharts\nAlphabet is forecasted to grow its revenue by more than 30% over the next two years, versus Apple's 10% growth. On top of that, at close to 20%, Alphabet is also expected to grow its earnings per share at a higher rate.\nNevertheless, despite its significantly better growth forecast, Alphabet isn't a lot more expensive compared to Apple. GOOG trades at 29x forward earnings, versus AAPL's 26x forward earnings multiple. Does it make sense for GOOG to trade at a premium of just 10%, while its expected growth is one and a half times as high as that of AAPL? You be the judge, but to me, it seems like the valuation looks better at Alphabet as long as we account for the stronger growth expectations. On top of that, with a net cash position of around $120 billion, Alphabet also has one of the best balance sheets in the world. Apple, for comparison, has a somewhatsmallernet cash position of $80 billion, although that still makes for a very strong balance sheet, of course.\nAll in all, we can summarize that Alphabet is growing faster today, is expected to grow significantly faster in the next two years and in the long run, has an even better balance sheet and a more dominant market position, and yet it trades at an earnings multiple that is only 10% higher than that of Apple. To me, Alphabet thus looks like the more attractive pick among these two at current prices.\nApple Versus Netflix And Amazon\nLooking at the last two remaining companies in the FAANG group, we see that, once again, AAPL is growing at a slower pace. Unless Facebook and Alphabet, however, both Netflix and Amazon are way more expensive than Apple.\nThis huge valuation premium offsets, at least to some degree, the higher expected growth, which is why I believe that Netflix and Amazon do not really seem like much better picks compared to Apple:\nData by YCharts\nAMZN and NFLX trade at PEG ratios of 1.8 and 1.9, which does not represent a clear discount compared to AAPL's valuation. On top of that, these two companies do not possess balance sheets that are as strong as that of Apple.\nNetflix, especially, looks significantly worse compared to the other FAANG members in terms of balance sheet strength and cash generation:\nData by YCharts\nNetflix is the only FAANG member with a meaningful net debt position, and its free cash flows are equal to just 1% of its market capitalization. Netflix grows fast, but to me, it seems doubtful whether the current valuation is justified. Considering that more and more companies are pushing into the streaming market, including Disney (DIS), Amazon, and AT&T(NYSE:T), more competition might hurt Netflix's margins in the future. NFLX thus seems like the worst pick among the five FAANG stocks to me, as it combines a high valuation, weak cash flows, and a somewhat uncertain competitive picture, and I think that is not fully negated by its strong growth alone.\nAmazon has a better market position than Netflix, a better balance sheet, and its valuation, relative to its growth, is a little lower than that of Netflix. I would rate Amazon as more or less equally attractive to Apple, although the two companies are quite different from each other in terms of growth, valuation, and shareholder returns.\nWhich Is The Best FAANG Stock To Buy?\nNot every investor has the same goals, thus the answer may be different depending on what you are looking for in a stock. To me, Apple seems like a solid, but outstanding pick at current prices - the business undoubtedly is strong, the balance sheet is great, shareholder returns are hefty, but the valuation seems stretched, especially when we consider how cheap shares were in the past.\nAlphabet and Facebook do seem like the best FAANG picks to me today, as they combine strong growth with valuations that are only marginally higher than that of Apple. On top of that, both Alphabet and Facebook dominate their markets. Amazon is a stock that I would rate as a solid investment at today's price, so more or less in line with AAPL, whereas Netflix seems like the weakest pick among these five to me.\nDepending on your time horizon, appetite for risk, etc. you may disagree, however - and that's perfectly fine. I'd be glad to hear your top picks and reasoning in the comment section!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":69,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}