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PTingL
2021-05-13
[微笑]
最担心的事发生了:关键数据爆了美股崩了,中国如何应对?
PTingL
2021-05-13
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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n最担心的事发生了:关键数据爆了美股崩了,中国如何应对?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-13 08:51 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockptd/2021-05-13/doc-ikmxzfmm2093740.shtml><strong>中国基金报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在通胀忧虑不断升高之际,北京时间12日晚间,全球的投资人都在关心美国公布的一个数据——4月CPI。这是一个观察通货膨胀的重要指标,而投资者担心通胀飙升可能促使美联储重新考虑目前宽松的货币政策。\n结果数据出来,投资人们都被惊呆了,美国4月CPI增速大幅高于市场预期,创金融危机以来最高!\n美国4月CPI同比增4.2%超预期创2008年9月以来最高值\n5月12日周三晚8点半,美国劳工部公布了美国4月...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockptd/2021-05-13/doc-ikmxzfmm2093740.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a106188796ec9abb78b8a3cfbae334a5","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DOG":"道指反向ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockptd/2021-05-13/doc-ikmxzfmm2093740.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2135837643","content_text":"在通胀忧虑不断升高之际,北京时间12日晚间,全球的投资人都在关心美国公布的一个数据——4月CPI。这是一个观察通货膨胀的重要指标,而投资者担心通胀飙升可能促使美联储重新考虑目前宽松的货币政策。\n结果数据出来,投资人们都被惊呆了,美国4月CPI增速大幅高于市场预期,创金融危机以来最高!\n美国4月CPI同比增4.2%超预期创2008年9月以来最高值\n5月12日周三晚8点半,美国劳工部公布了美国4月CPI。\n数据显示,不光是美国的整体CPI还是核心CPI,4月份增速都创出惊人记录。其中,美国4月整体CPI同比大增4.2%,大幅超出此前3.6%的市场预期,增速创2008年9月以来新高;美国4月核心CPI未季调年率录得3%,同样远高于预期值2.30%和前值1.60%,创1996年1月以来最大增长。\n剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格,核心CPI较2020年同期增长3%,环比增长0.9%,两者预期分别为2.3%和0.3%。\n能源价格总体较上年同期上涨25%,其中汽油和燃料油价格分别上涨49.6%和37.3%。\n美国汽车协会的数据显示,美国汽油价格在4月份下跌了1.4%,5月份又重新开始攀升,自2014年11月以来,美国汽油均价首次超过每加仑3美元。\n被视为关键通胀指标的二手车和卡车价格飙升了21%,其中仅4月份就上涨了10%。CPI的另一个关键组成部分——住房价格较上年同期上涨2.1%,环比上涨0.4%。\n除了价格上涨之外,年度大幅增长的一个主要原因是基数效应,这意味着随着大流行导致美国经济大范围关闭,2020年的通胀水平非常低。\n因此,美联储的政策制定者和许多经济学家认为当前这轮数据是暂时的,他们预计今年晚些时候通货膨胀会在央行设定的2%的目标范围内回落。\n李迅雷老师评论称:发太多货币了,出来混总是要还的。\n\n明年底美联储加息板上钉钉?美联储副主席及时安抚市场\n数据公布后,美国货币市场认为美联储到2022年12月加息25个基点的概率为100%,而在数据公布前为88%。\n美联储副主席克拉里达随即在讲话中继续安抚市场,他表示对高于预期的通胀数据感到惊讶,不过这是由于暂时性的因素,经济仍远未达到美联储的目标。\n克拉里达预计通胀将在2022或2023年回到2%,并表示如果通胀升到与政府指令不一致的水平,将使用工具将其降下来。\n美联储主席鲍威尔在一封4月8日的信函中表示,我们不寻求通胀大大超过2%,我们也不寻求通胀长期超过2%,不过,我要强调的是,我们正全力以赴地致力于我们的双重使命-充分就业和物价稳定。\n美联储故意放松2%的通胀目标,此举旨在避免过早地回撤经济支持相关政策,造成经济复苏放缓。\n美股跳水下跌 \n数据出来之后,投资者日益担心通胀不断上扬将会促使各大央行收紧货币政策。\n科技股再次下跌并领跌大盘。纳指跌超2%,道指跌近500点,标普500跌超1.6%!\n\n华尔街正在刮起一波快速疯狂转向价值股的风潮,长期来的宠儿科技股却走上了下坡路。纵观全球市场,与经济增长相关的股票俱都表现出色,大宗商品的上涨将债券市场的通胀预期推向15年新高。\n\n较高的通货膨胀预期往往对价值股有利,因为通常伴随着更快的经济增长和更高的债券收益率。与此同时,科技股的长期前景因为较高的利率而被削弱。过去一个月中,能源,材料和金融板块领跑标普500指数。科技股表现最差。\n即曾笑称价值基金经理没客户的Sanford C. Bernstein策略师在周五一份报告中表示,价值股“还有很多弹药。”他们在一份报告中写道:“价值股仍是现在市场上投资者最不拥挤的领域。从长远看,这种轮动并非只是长期跑输的价值股短暂翻盘。”\n在此之前,桥水基金创始人达里奥周二警告称,拜登的财政刺激加剧通胀和美元贬值的风险。\n他认为,美国政府大手笔的支出增加了通货膨胀和美元贬值的风险。达里奥说,拜登政府的经济议程,包括3月份签署的1.9万亿美元的Covid-19救援法案,以及2.3万亿美元的基础设施支出提案,有可能导致大量资金流入经济,从而产生泡沫。\n他还预测,债券买家不会有足够的需求来购买新的政府债券,这将导致美联储继续其扩张性政策。\n高盛集团首席经济学家表示,即将到来的美国通胀率上升很可能是暂时的,而不是一个持久现象。Hatzius认为,在发达经济体经历了多年低迷的价格压力之后,现在越来越多迹象表明通货膨胀率正在上升。调查数据显示,半导体、钢铁、木材和棉花等各种原材料都出现库存紧张。大宗商品价格上涨是否会推动消费物价持续上升,这是决策者和投资者面临的关键问题。美联储目前每月购买1200亿美元的债券,并表示将继续以这种速度购买债券,直到在就业和通胀目标方面取得实质性的进一步进展为止。\n奎尔情报公司(Quill Intelligence)称,美元作为储备货币的地位岌岌可危,非常看好黄金、白银和铂金。即使在美国经济明显复苏,新的新冠肺炎病例下降,政府继续通过财政和货币刺激向金融体系注入流动性,最终的结果是美元的贬值,丧失全球储备货币地位。“如果美联储坚持做鸵鸟,把头埋进沙子里,同时每个月推出1200亿美元的量化宽松政策,就像我们处于萧条时期一样,那么我们就仍处于紧急状态。其他国家的货币最终可能向美元发起挑战”。\n中国如何应对? \n在这一全球大背景下,投资者都在担忧央行可能收紧银根。\n5月11日中国央行发布的一季度货币政策执行报告称,全球大宗商品价格上涨可能阶段性推升我国PPI,但输入性通胀的风险总体可控,并强调“珍惜正常的货币政策空间”\n《报告》提出,下一阶段,央行将稳健的货币政策要灵活精准、合理适度,珍惜正常的货币政策空间,处理好恢复经济和防范风险的关系。健全现代货币政策框架,完善货币供应调控机制,管好货币总闸门,保持流动性合理充裕,保持货币供应量和社会融资规模增速同名义经济增速基本匹配,保持宏观杠杆率基本稳定。\n对于通胀走高的原因,《报告》认为,全球大宗商品价格上涨和通胀走高的主要推动因素有三:\n一是主要经济体政府出台大规模刺激方案,市场普遍预期总需求将趋于旺盛;\n二是境外疫情明显反弹,供给端仍存在制约因素,全球经济在后疫情时代的需求复苏进度阶段性快于供给恢复;\n三是主要经济体中央银行实施超宽松货币政策,全球流动性环境持续处于极度宽松状态。\n“目前看上述三方面影响短期内难以消除,全球通胀中枢可能在一段时间里延续温和抬升走势。对我国而言,国外通胀走高的输入性影响主要体现在工业品价格,叠加去年低基数的影响,可能在今年二、三季度阶段性推高我国PPI涨幅。”《报告》称。\n我国是大宗商品主要进口国,从进口量和进口依存度看,影响PPI的主要是原油、铁矿石和铜,其中原油的下游产业链较长,还会影响化工品等价格,对PPI影响最大。\n“具体到对我国消费者物价的影响上,近年来我国PPI向CPI的传导关系明显减弱,国际大宗商品价格起伏波动对我国CPI走势的影响也相应较低。加之国内生猪供给已基本恢复,猪肉价格总体趋于下降,粮食连续多年丰收、农产品自给率总体较高,初步预计今年CPI涨幅较为温和,受外部因素影响总体可控,将保持在合理区间运行。”《报告》称。\n另外,5月11日,国家统计局公布数据显示,4月中国全国居民消费价格(CPI)同比上涨0.9%,前值上涨0.4%;环比下降0.3%,降幅比上月收窄0.2%。\n4月CPI同比上涨0.9%(前值0.4%),略低于市场预期的1%,但为2020年9月以来的最高点。4月PPI同比上涨6.8%,超出市场预期。\nCPI之所以保持较低水平,部分原因是猪肉价格同比下降21.4%。“剔除猪肉后,4月CPI同比涨幅将从3月的0.9%升至1.4%。4月非食品价格同比涨幅也从3月的0.7%升至1.3%。”野村中国首席经济学家陆挺表示。\n而大宗商品的价格上涨也惊动了国常会。\n\n5月12日,李克强主持召开国务院常务会议,会议要求要跟踪分析国内外形势和市场变化,做好市场调节,应对大宗商品价格过快上涨及其连带影响。加强货币政策与其他政策配合,保持经济平稳运行。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":191660636,"gmtCreate":1620875179625,"gmtModify":1634195663404,"author":{"id":"3582775538739790","authorId":"3582775538739790","name":"PTingL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca87d2398af9269eac1cfbf300b67991","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷] ","listText":"[财迷] ","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191660636","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":191662674,"gmtCreate":1620875570898,"gmtModify":1634195658953,"author":{"id":"3582775538739790","authorId":"3582775538739790","name":"PTingL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca87d2398af9269eac1cfbf300b67991","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑] ","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191662674","repostId":"2135837643","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":191660636,"gmtCreate":1620875179625,"gmtModify":1634195663404,"author":{"id":"3582775538739790","authorId":"3582775538739790","name":"PTingL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca87d2398af9269eac1cfbf300b67991","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷] ","listText":"[财迷] ","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191660636","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}