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Jujulim

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2021-11-03

Yay! More dividends!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-20

Way to go!

Adobe shares hit a new high in morning trading

2021-06-26

Great article

Alibaba: Can BABA Get Back To $300? Yes, It Can

2021-12-07

Y?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-12

Great

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-23

Keep growing AMD!

AMD Stock Just Gave Us the Best Trade of the Year. Now What?

2021-12-15

Agree

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-11

Thanks for the article!

Don't Get Too Comfortable: The Crash May Be Coming

2021-12-06

Ok!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-30

Please continue to grow for everyone who bought them!

Better Semiconductor Stock: Nvidia or AMD

2021-11-18

Really???

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-01

Good! Keep going!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-26

At low

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10:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Adobe Stock Fell Nearly 7%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126353314","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"What happened\nShares of creativity software leader Adobe(NASDAQ:ADBE)were down by 6.6% as of 4 p.m. ","content":"<p><b>What happened</b></p>\n<p>Shares of creativity software leader&nbsp;<b>Adobe</b>(NASDAQ:ADBE)were down by 6.6% as of 4 p.m. ET Tuesday. The culprit may have been&nbsp;<b>JPMorgan Chase</b>&nbsp;stock analyst Sterling Auty, who downgraded the stock to neutral and put a $680 one-year price target on it. Adobe and some of its software peers were hit by the prognosticator's view that there will be limited upside for them in 2022.</p>\n<p><b>So what</b></p>\n<p>Investors should always take individual predictions about stocks' near-term price movements with a grain of salt. Adobe will report its fiscal 2021 fourth-quarter earnings after the market closes on Thursday. During its fiscal Q3, which ended Sept. 3, revenue rose 22% year over year to $3.94 billion, and management predicted the Q4 pace of growth would also be in the low 20% range.</p>\n<p>Because Adobe is a mature software firm, its profitability tends to grow at an even faster rate than its revenue does (since each incremental software sale adds little in the way of new expenses, when excluding the company's spending on expansion initiatives). 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Trillions of additional dollars will be spent on digital transformation in the coming decade, and capturing even a small fraction of that will deliver big gains for Adobe. 2022 may or may not be great for Adobe stock, but investors should stay focused on this company's potential over periods of many years -- not just one.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Adobe Stock Fell Nearly 7%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Adobe Stock Fell Nearly 7%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-15 10:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/14/why-adobe-stock-fell-nearly-8-today/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>What happened\nShares of creativity software leader Adobe(NASDAQ:ADBE)were down by 6.6% as of 4 p.m. ET Tuesday. The culprit may have been JPMorgan Chase stock analyst Sterling Auty, who downgraded the...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/14/why-adobe-stock-fell-nearly-8-today/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/14/why-adobe-stock-fell-nearly-8-today/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126353314","content_text":"What happened\nShares of creativity software leader Adobe(NASDAQ:ADBE)were down by 6.6% as of 4 p.m. ET Tuesday. The culprit may have been JPMorgan Chase stock analyst Sterling Auty, who downgraded the stock to neutral and put a $680 one-year price target on it. Adobe and some of its software peers were hit by the prognosticator's view that there will be limited upside for them in 2022.\nSo what\nInvestors should always take individual predictions about stocks' near-term price movements with a grain of salt. Adobe will report its fiscal 2021 fourth-quarter earnings after the market closes on Thursday. During its fiscal Q3, which ended Sept. 3, revenue rose 22% year over year to $3.94 billion, and management predicted the Q4 pace of growth would also be in the low 20% range.\nBecause Adobe is a mature software firm, its profitability tends to grow at an even faster rate than its revenue does (since each incremental software sale adds little in the way of new expenses, when excluding the company's spending on expansion initiatives). For example, adjusted earnings per share rose 28% in fiscal Q3. Based on management's guidance for fiscal Q4, adjusted earnings per share will only rise by about 13% year over year. But even if Adobe doesn't beat its own outlook, its full-year adjusted earnings would still be up by a very healthy mid-20% amount.\nNow what\nSince it's the end of its fiscal year, Adobe's management will also provide its initial guidance for its fiscal 2022 on its earnings call. The company will be lapping a strong 2021, but this long-term shareholder is optimistic. With digital creators beginning to build next-gen experiences for the web, streaming video services, and the workplace, demand for creativity software isn't going to abate any time soon.\nThis bodes well for Adobe's continued success. The cloud-computing company has built itself into a hub for digital transformation, helping its users unlock new efficiencies and update their digital toolsets. Trillions of additional dollars will be spent on digital transformation in the coming decade, and capturing even a small fraction of that will deliver big gains for Adobe. 2022 may or may not be great for Adobe stock, but investors should stay focused on this company's potential over periods of many years -- not just one.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":788,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606396860,"gmtCreate":1638832709239,"gmtModify":1638832709326,"author":{"id":"3582610171578564","authorId":"3582610171578564","name":"Jujulim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c529bfe97e53fc04a89781a34f76b53e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582610171578564","authorIdStr":"3582610171578564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Y?&nbsp;","listText":"Y?&nbsp;","text":"Y?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606396860","repostId":"1167580246","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167580246","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1638802452,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167580246?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 22:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Semiconductor stocks dipped in morning trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167580246","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Semiconductor stocks dipped in morning trading.Nvidia,TSMC,ASML,AMD,Xilinx,Globalfoundries and ON Se","content":"<p>Semiconductor stocks dipped in morning trading.Nvidia,TSMC,ASML,AMD,Xilinx,Globalfoundries&nbsp;and&nbsp;ON&nbsp;Semiconductor fell between 2% and 7%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fd417bf4091570cb848a432d4946ce4\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Semiconductor stocks dipped in morning trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSemiconductor stocks dipped in morning trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-12-06 22:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Semiconductor stocks dipped in morning trading.Nvidia,TSMC,ASML,AMD,Xilinx,Globalfoundries&nbsp;and&nbsp;ON&nbsp;Semiconductor fell between 2% and 7%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fd417bf4091570cb848a432d4946ce4\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦","ADI":"亚德诺","GFS":"GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.","MRVL":"迈威尔科技","ON":"安森美半导体","MU":"美光科技","AMD":"美国超微公司","NVDA":"英伟达","TSM":"台积电","TXN":"德州仪器","QCOM":"高通"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167580246","content_text":"Semiconductor stocks dipped in morning trading.Nvidia,TSMC,ASML,AMD,Xilinx,Globalfoundries and ON Semiconductor fell between 2% and 7%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1061,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608434870,"gmtCreate":1638774617641,"gmtModify":1638774617641,"author":{"id":"3582610171578564","authorId":"3582610171578564","name":"Jujulim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c529bfe97e53fc04a89781a34f76b53e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582610171578564","authorIdStr":"3582610171578564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok!&nbsp;","listText":"Ok!&nbsp;","text":"Ok!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608434870","repostId":"1127164143","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609118148,"gmtCreate":1638250989552,"gmtModify":1638250989552,"author":{"id":"3582610171578564","authorId":"3582610171578564","name":"Jujulim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c529bfe97e53fc04a89781a34f76b53e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582610171578564","authorIdStr":"3582610171578564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please&nbsp;continue to grow for everyone who bought them!&nbsp;","listText":"Please&nbsp;continue to grow for everyone who bought them!&nbsp;","text":"Please continue to grow for everyone who bought them!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609118148","repostId":"2186262293","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2186262293","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1638155027,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2186262293?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-29 11:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Better Semiconductor Stock: Nvidia or AMD","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2186262293","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Which high-growth chipmaker is the better all-around investment?","content":"<p><b>Key Points</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Nvidia is profiting from the robust demand for GPUs in the gaming and data center markets.</li>\n <li>AMD is selling more CPUs for the PC and server markets as Intel tries to resolve its R&amp;D and manufacturing issues.</li>\n <li>One of these chipmakers has more catalysts than the other.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Last December, I compared two of the market's hottest semiconductor stocks: <b>Nvidia</b> (NASDAQ:NVDA) and <b>Advanced Micro Devices</b> (NASDAQ:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>).</p>\n<p>At the time, I said AMD was a better buy than Nvidia because I believed it was better insulated from macro headwinds, it would benefit from the arrivals of the new PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series consoles, and it would continue to grow its market share against <b>Intel </b>(NASDAQ:INTC).</p>\n<p>However, Nvidia's stock price has rallied nearly 150% since I wrote that article, while AMD's stock has only advanced about 70%. Let's take a fresh look at both chipmakers to see if I made the wrong call last year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c23cc7b86d5f4cdb564f53ac3e85040\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1125\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p>\n<h2>What I got wrong about Nvidia</h2>\n<p>I had expected Nvidia's gaming and data center GPU businesses, which both experienced strong growth during the pandemic, to lose their momentum as the pandemic passed, people played fewer games, and data centers faced less pressure to upgrade their AI-processing servers. But that slowdown never happened.</p>\n<p>Nvidia's revenue rose 53% to $16.7 billion in fiscal 2021, which ended back in January. That growth was led by its gaming and data center businesses, which easily offset the slower growth of its auto, professional visualization, and OEM businesses. Its adjusted gross margin expanded 310 basis points to 65.6%, while its adjusted net income surged 75% to $6.3 billion.</p>\n<p>In the first nine months of fiscal 2022, Nvidia's revenue grew 65% year over year to $19.3 billion. Its gaming and data center businesses continued to grow, while its auto, professional visualization, and OEM segments all recovered as the pandemic-related headwinds waned. Its data center business also benefited from its takeover of the data center networking equipment maker Mellanox last April. Its adjusted gross margin rose 90 basis points year over year to 66.6%, and its adjusted net income jumped 83% to $7.9 billion.</p>\n<p>Analysts expect Nvidia's revenue and earnings to grow 60% and 74%, respectively, for the full year. Those estimates notably don't factor in the potential success or failure of its $40 billion takeover bid for Arm Holdings from <b>Softbank</b>, which could be stuck in regulatory limbo&nbsp;for the foreseeable future.</p>\n<h2>What I got wrong about AMD</h2>\n<p>AMD performed very well&nbsp;over the past year, but it didn't actually gain much ground against Intel in the CPU market. Between the fourth quarters of 2020 and 2021, Intel's market share rose from 61.5% to 62.1%, according to PassMark, while AMD's share dipped from 38.5% to 37.8%.</p>\n<p>AMD's share of the discrete GPU market also dipped from 20% to 17% between the third quarters of 2020 and 2021, according to JPR. Nvidia's share rose from 80% to 83%. AMD benefited from robust sales of <b>Sony</b>&nbsp;and <b>Microsoft</b>'s new gaming consoles this year, but the ongoing supply chain shortages are capping those gains.</p>\n<p>Yet AMD continues to grow. Last year, its revenue rose 45% to $9.76 billion, Its adjusted gross margin expanded two percentage points to 45%, and its adjusted net income more than doubled to $1.58 billion.</p>\n<p>In the first nine months of 2021, its revenue grew 78% year-over-year to $11.6 billion, its adjusted gross margin rose from 44% to 47%, and its adjusted net income soared 146% to $2.31 billion. It attributed most of that growth to robust sales of its Ryzen CPUs for PCs and Epyc CPUs for servers.</p>\n<p>Analysts expect AMD's revenue and adjusted earnings to increase 65% and 104%, respectively, for the full year. Those estimates don't include its planned purchase of <b>Xilinx</b> (NASDAQ:XLNX), which will complement its Eypc data center business with programmable chips.</p>\n<h2>The valuations and upcoming challenges</h2>\n<p>Nvidia trades at 62 times forward earnings, while AMD has a lower forward price-to-earnings ratio of 46. Analysts expect both chipmakers to generate slower growth next year, but Nvidia might have more catalysts than AMD.</p>\n<p>Nvidia's core GPU business remains far ahead of AMD's, and the secular strength of the gaming and data center markets -- along with the recovery of its smaller end markets -- should support its long-term growth.</p>\n<p>AMD is still a thorn in Intel's side, and it remains ahead of its larger CPU rival in the \"process race\" to create smaller and more advanced chips because it outsources its production to <b>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</b> (NYSE:TSM). However, that balance could eventually shift as Intel doubles down on its own first-party manufacturing efforts and tries to catch up to TSMC.</p>\n<p>That looming threat, along with intense competition from Nvidia in the GPU market, could be preventing investors from paying a higher premium for AMD's stock, even though it's growing at a comparable rate as Nvidia.</p>\n<p>AMD's planned takeover of Xilinx, which mirrors Intel's takeover of Altera six years ago, is also arguably more important to its long-term growth plans than Nvidia's planned purchase of Arm -- which would merely complement its existing business with new CPU design and licensing capabilities.</p>\n<h2>The winner: Nvidia</h2>\n<p>Both chipmakers are still great long-term growth plays. However, Nvidia clearly looks like the stronger investment than AMD right now -- even though it trades at significantly higher valuations.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Better Semiconductor Stock: Nvidia or AMD</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBetter Semiconductor Stock: Nvidia or AMD\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-29 11:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/28/better-semiconductor-stock-nvidia-or-amd/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Key Points\n\nNvidia is profiting from the robust demand for GPUs in the gaming and data center markets.\nAMD is selling more CPUs for the PC and server markets as Intel tries to resolve its R&D and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/28/better-semiconductor-stock-nvidia-or-amd/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4543":"AI","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","AMD":"美国超微公司","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4567":"ESG概念","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4529":"IDC概念"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/28/better-semiconductor-stock-nvidia-or-amd/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2186262293","content_text":"Key Points\n\nNvidia is profiting from the robust demand for GPUs in the gaming and data center markets.\nAMD is selling more CPUs for the PC and server markets as Intel tries to resolve its R&D and manufacturing issues.\nOne of these chipmakers has more catalysts than the other.\n\nLast December, I compared two of the market's hottest semiconductor stocks: Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD).\nAt the time, I said AMD was a better buy than Nvidia because I believed it was better insulated from macro headwinds, it would benefit from the arrivals of the new PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series consoles, and it would continue to grow its market share against Intel (NASDAQ:INTC).\nHowever, Nvidia's stock price has rallied nearly 150% since I wrote that article, while AMD's stock has only advanced about 70%. Let's take a fresh look at both chipmakers to see if I made the wrong call last year.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nWhat I got wrong about Nvidia\nI had expected Nvidia's gaming and data center GPU businesses, which both experienced strong growth during the pandemic, to lose their momentum as the pandemic passed, people played fewer games, and data centers faced less pressure to upgrade their AI-processing servers. But that slowdown never happened.\nNvidia's revenue rose 53% to $16.7 billion in fiscal 2021, which ended back in January. That growth was led by its gaming and data center businesses, which easily offset the slower growth of its auto, professional visualization, and OEM businesses. Its adjusted gross margin expanded 310 basis points to 65.6%, while its adjusted net income surged 75% to $6.3 billion.\nIn the first nine months of fiscal 2022, Nvidia's revenue grew 65% year over year to $19.3 billion. Its gaming and data center businesses continued to grow, while its auto, professional visualization, and OEM segments all recovered as the pandemic-related headwinds waned. Its data center business also benefited from its takeover of the data center networking equipment maker Mellanox last April. Its adjusted gross margin rose 90 basis points year over year to 66.6%, and its adjusted net income jumped 83% to $7.9 billion.\nAnalysts expect Nvidia's revenue and earnings to grow 60% and 74%, respectively, for the full year. Those estimates notably don't factor in the potential success or failure of its $40 billion takeover bid for Arm Holdings from Softbank, which could be stuck in regulatory limbo for the foreseeable future.\nWhat I got wrong about AMD\nAMD performed very well over the past year, but it didn't actually gain much ground against Intel in the CPU market. Between the fourth quarters of 2020 and 2021, Intel's market share rose from 61.5% to 62.1%, according to PassMark, while AMD's share dipped from 38.5% to 37.8%.\nAMD's share of the discrete GPU market also dipped from 20% to 17% between the third quarters of 2020 and 2021, according to JPR. Nvidia's share rose from 80% to 83%. AMD benefited from robust sales of Sony and Microsoft's new gaming consoles this year, but the ongoing supply chain shortages are capping those gains.\nYet AMD continues to grow. Last year, its revenue rose 45% to $9.76 billion, Its adjusted gross margin expanded two percentage points to 45%, and its adjusted net income more than doubled to $1.58 billion.\nIn the first nine months of 2021, its revenue grew 78% year-over-year to $11.6 billion, its adjusted gross margin rose from 44% to 47%, and its adjusted net income soared 146% to $2.31 billion. It attributed most of that growth to robust sales of its Ryzen CPUs for PCs and Epyc CPUs for servers.\nAnalysts expect AMD's revenue and adjusted earnings to increase 65% and 104%, respectively, for the full year. Those estimates don't include its planned purchase of Xilinx (NASDAQ:XLNX), which will complement its Eypc data center business with programmable chips.\nThe valuations and upcoming challenges\nNvidia trades at 62 times forward earnings, while AMD has a lower forward price-to-earnings ratio of 46. Analysts expect both chipmakers to generate slower growth next year, but Nvidia might have more catalysts than AMD.\nNvidia's core GPU business remains far ahead of AMD's, and the secular strength of the gaming and data center markets -- along with the recovery of its smaller end markets -- should support its long-term growth.\nAMD is still a thorn in Intel's side, and it remains ahead of its larger CPU rival in the \"process race\" to create smaller and more advanced chips because it outsources its production to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM). However, that balance could eventually shift as Intel doubles down on its own first-party manufacturing efforts and tries to catch up to TSMC.\nThat looming threat, along with intense competition from Nvidia in the GPU market, could be preventing investors from paying a higher premium for AMD's stock, even though it's growing at a comparable rate as Nvidia.\nAMD's planned takeover of Xilinx, which mirrors Intel's takeover of Altera six years ago, is also arguably more important to its long-term growth plans than Nvidia's planned purchase of Arm -- which would merely complement its existing business with new CPU design and licensing capabilities.\nThe winner: Nvidia\nBoth chipmakers are still great long-term growth plays. However, Nvidia clearly looks like the stronger investment than AMD right now -- even though it trades at significantly higher valuations.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875618388,"gmtCreate":1637641907757,"gmtModify":1637641907757,"author":{"id":"3582610171578564","authorId":"3582610171578564","name":"Jujulim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c529bfe97e53fc04a89781a34f76b53e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582610171578564","authorIdStr":"3582610171578564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Keep growing AMD!&nbsp;","listText":"Keep growing AMD!&nbsp;","text":"Keep growing AMD!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875618388","repostId":"1109021597","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109021597","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637638327,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109021597?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-23 11:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD Stock Just Gave Us the Best Trade of the Year. Now What?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109021597","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"AMD stock remains a potent performer, both as a trade and as an investment","content":"<p><b>Advanced Micro Devices</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>AMD</u></b>) has been an absolute beast on the long side. Despite that truth, AMD stock can actually be pretty tough to trade at times.</p>\n<p>The stock tends to go on sharp, robust runs and then consolidate for quite a while. However, patient bulls in this stock continue to be rewarded. That’s exactly what I’ve been pounding the table on — patience.</p>\n<p>If there’s one industry — or one duo — that I have a good pulse on, it’s AMD and&nbsp;<b>Nvidia</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>NVDA</u></b>). Both of these companies are incredibly well run and while the stocks don’t always reflect their great businesses, the share prices eventually reward shareholders.</p>\n<p>With AMD, the writing was all over the wall — almost literally.</p>\n<p><b>Trading AMD Stock</b></p>\n<p>Going into earnings in July,I made the case to own&nbsp;AMD stock regardless of the earnings outcome. A few days later, Advanced Micro Devices reported strong earnings and the stock exploded to new all-time highs as a result.</p>\n<p>This triggered a massive breakout over the $99 to $100 level, but that was followed by a somewhat disappointing 18% correction back to this breakout area.</p>\n<p>Like I said though, the bullish clues that new highs were coming were written all over the charts.We never forgot the massive volume&nbsp;that accompanied the stock’s post-earnings rally.</p>\n<p>Save this chart. Bookmark this article. Whatever you need to do to imprint this image in your mind, because this is what “accumulation” volume looks like.</p>\n<p>That’s when institutions pile into a stock, leaving their “footprints” all over the chart in the form of volume. This had the hallmarks of institutional accumulation. While that doesn’t guarantee new highs necessarily, it’s a decent bet that it means, “there’s more where that came from.”</p>\n<p>AMD found support at the prior $99 to $100 breakout zone before&nbsp;giving a powerful weekly-up rotation. That may very well have led to one of the best trades of the year. Further, it helped kick-start an absolutely massive secondary trade in Nvidia, which paid off quite well too.</p>\n<p>Finally, AMD stock&nbsp;gave bulls a nice reset&nbsp;to start off November and the stock responded with a 19.5% burst.Rarely do we get to double dip in a trade like this, catching a bulk of the upside and&nbsp;<i>then</i>&nbsp;catching the downside reversal.</p>\n<p><b>So, What’s the Trade?</b></p>\n<p>From here, we need to give the stock a rest. For traders, that means trimming into strength and/or raising their stop-losses. For investors, it means appreciating the move, but expecting potentially sideways-to-lower price action in the short to immediate term.</p>\n<p>Am I bearish? Absolutely not. But am I cognizant that Nvidia and AMD are up 50% to 60% over the past six weeks and that action can only last so long? Yes.</p>\n<p>Bulls have been quite fortunate in this name. I’m hoping the above chart can serve as an educational tool to readers. It highlights the following:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>A massive upside rally with accumulation volume. Learn to spot these!</li>\n <li>A pullback to the prior breakout zone.</li>\n <li>The weekly-up trigger that launched AMD higher, then the ensuing “reset” trade that sent AMD to new all-time highs.</li>\n <li>Lastly, the reversal trade that let bulls exit the trade with monstrous gains and gave aggressive traders a short-selling opportunity.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Betting on AMD’s Long-Term Future</b></p>\n<p>AMD stock just gave bulls one of the best trades of the year. The best part about all of this is that the company continues to deliver on the fundamentals too.</p>\n<p>It’s a very mixed and mostly downbeat situation for growth stocks. Many of the best growth stocks are well off the highs right now, but not AMD and Nvidia.Both stocks&nbsp;remain superior to picks&nbsp;like&nbsp;<b>Intel</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>INTC</u></b>) too. They are real outliers, outshining growth&nbsp;<i>and</i>value stocks.</p>\n<p>That’s because consensus estimates continue to underestimate what AMD and Nvidia are doing right now. Nvidia just delivered a&nbsp;top- and bottom-line beat&nbsp;and better-than-expected guidance. AMD&nbsp;did the same thing, while delivering 54% revenue growth.</p>\n<p>The more that technology grows, the more that companies need better components. Increased data means increasing data center performance. That equates to more orders for AMD and Nvidia.This new push for the “metaverse” has AMD in demand too. So do computer graphics, gaming, AI and machine learning applications, autonomous driving — you name it. There are countless end markets for GPUs.</p>\n<p>If there’s one fly in the ointment, it’s future growth concerns.</p>\n<p>With one quarter left to go for this fiscal year,analysts expect AMD to grow sales&nbsp;19.5% next year, then 14% in the following year. Some might say the stock has rallied too far given these estimates.Maybe so. And in that case, we may see a multi-quarter consolidation phase, which most long-term investors are fine with.</p>\n<p>But it’s also possible that these estimates are too conservative.</p>\n<p>In late July, 2022 revenue estimates sat at about $17 billion. After earnings in July, they shot up to $18 billion. After the last report in October, these expectations moved above $19 billion. You can see how this theme has been playing out.</p>\n<p>For now, I still have no reason to bet against AMD (or Nvidia) even though it’s clear that the stocks need a break.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD Stock Just Gave Us the Best Trade of the Year. Now What? </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD Stock Just Gave Us the Best Trade of the Year. Now What? \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-23 11:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/11/amd-stock-just-gave-us-the-best-trade-of-the-year-now-what/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD) has been an absolute beast on the long side. Despite that truth, AMD stock can actually be pretty tough to trade at times.\nThe stock tends to go on sharp, robust ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/11/amd-stock-just-gave-us-the-best-trade-of-the-year-now-what/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/11/amd-stock-just-gave-us-the-best-trade-of-the-year-now-what/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109021597","content_text":"Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD) has been an absolute beast on the long side. Despite that truth, AMD stock can actually be pretty tough to trade at times.\nThe stock tends to go on sharp, robust runs and then consolidate for quite a while. However, patient bulls in this stock continue to be rewarded. That’s exactly what I’ve been pounding the table on — patience.\nIf there’s one industry — or one duo — that I have a good pulse on, it’s AMD and Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA). Both of these companies are incredibly well run and while the stocks don’t always reflect their great businesses, the share prices eventually reward shareholders.\nWith AMD, the writing was all over the wall — almost literally.\nTrading AMD Stock\nGoing into earnings in July,I made the case to own AMD stock regardless of the earnings outcome. A few days later, Advanced Micro Devices reported strong earnings and the stock exploded to new all-time highs as a result.\nThis triggered a massive breakout over the $99 to $100 level, but that was followed by a somewhat disappointing 18% correction back to this breakout area.\nLike I said though, the bullish clues that new highs were coming were written all over the charts.We never forgot the massive volume that accompanied the stock’s post-earnings rally.\nSave this chart. Bookmark this article. Whatever you need to do to imprint this image in your mind, because this is what “accumulation” volume looks like.\nThat’s when institutions pile into a stock, leaving their “footprints” all over the chart in the form of volume. This had the hallmarks of institutional accumulation. While that doesn’t guarantee new highs necessarily, it’s a decent bet that it means, “there’s more where that came from.”\nAMD found support at the prior $99 to $100 breakout zone before giving a powerful weekly-up rotation. That may very well have led to one of the best trades of the year. Further, it helped kick-start an absolutely massive secondary trade in Nvidia, which paid off quite well too.\nFinally, AMD stock gave bulls a nice reset to start off November and the stock responded with a 19.5% burst.Rarely do we get to double dip in a trade like this, catching a bulk of the upside and then catching the downside reversal.\nSo, What’s the Trade?\nFrom here, we need to give the stock a rest. For traders, that means trimming into strength and/or raising their stop-losses. For investors, it means appreciating the move, but expecting potentially sideways-to-lower price action in the short to immediate term.\nAm I bearish? Absolutely not. But am I cognizant that Nvidia and AMD are up 50% to 60% over the past six weeks and that action can only last so long? Yes.\nBulls have been quite fortunate in this name. I’m hoping the above chart can serve as an educational tool to readers. It highlights the following:\n\nA massive upside rally with accumulation volume. Learn to spot these!\nA pullback to the prior breakout zone.\nThe weekly-up trigger that launched AMD higher, then the ensuing “reset” trade that sent AMD to new all-time highs.\nLastly, the reversal trade that let bulls exit the trade with monstrous gains and gave aggressive traders a short-selling opportunity.\n\nBetting on AMD’s Long-Term Future\nAMD stock just gave bulls one of the best trades of the year. The best part about all of this is that the company continues to deliver on the fundamentals too.\nIt’s a very mixed and mostly downbeat situation for growth stocks. Many of the best growth stocks are well off the highs right now, but not AMD and Nvidia.Both stocks remain superior to picks like Intel(NASDAQ:INTC) too. They are real outliers, outshining growth andvalue stocks.\nThat’s because consensus estimates continue to underestimate what AMD and Nvidia are doing right now. Nvidia just delivered a top- and bottom-line beat and better-than-expected guidance. AMD did the same thing, while delivering 54% revenue growth.\nThe more that technology grows, the more that companies need better components. Increased data means increasing data center performance. That equates to more orders for AMD and Nvidia.This new push for the “metaverse” has AMD in demand too. So do computer graphics, gaming, AI and machine learning applications, autonomous driving — you name it. There are countless end markets for GPUs.\nIf there’s one fly in the ointment, it’s future growth concerns.\nWith one quarter left to go for this fiscal year,analysts expect AMD to grow sales 19.5% next year, then 14% in the following year. Some might say the stock has rallied too far given these estimates.Maybe so. And in that case, we may see a multi-quarter consolidation phase, which most long-term investors are fine with.\nBut it’s also possible that these estimates are too conservative.\nIn late July, 2022 revenue estimates sat at about $17 billion. After earnings in July, they shot up to $18 billion. After the last report in October, these expectations moved above $19 billion. You can see how this theme has been playing out.\nFor now, I still have no reason to bet against AMD (or Nvidia) even though it’s clear that the stocks need a break.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":876743061,"gmtCreate":1637369007416,"gmtModify":1637369007539,"author":{"id":"3582610171578564","authorId":"3582610171578564","name":"Jujulim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c529bfe97e53fc04a89781a34f76b53e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582610171578564","authorIdStr":"3582610171578564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Way to go!&nbsp;","listText":"Way to go!&nbsp;","text":"Way to go!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876743061","repostId":"1177334934","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177334934","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1637333626,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177334934?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-19 22:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Adobe shares hit a new high in morning trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177334934","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Adobe shares hit a new high in morning trading.Adobe Inc on Thursday said it was partnering with San","content":"<p>Adobe shares hit a new high in morning trading.Adobe Inc&nbsp;on Thursday said it was partnering with San Francisco-based startup Bolt to add one-click checkouts for retailers that use Adobe's e-commerce software tools.</p>\n<p>Once known for software such as Photoshop, Adobe has branched out into digital marketing and e-commerce tools for retailers.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0b5018b48388c65016f6b848cfc4f74\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Adobe shares hit a new high in morning trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAdobe shares hit a new high in morning trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-19 22:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Adobe shares hit a new high in morning trading.Adobe Inc&nbsp;on Thursday said it was partnering with San Francisco-based startup Bolt to add one-click checkouts for retailers that use Adobe's e-commerce software tools.</p>\n<p>Once known for software such as Photoshop, Adobe has branched out into digital marketing and e-commerce tools for retailers.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0b5018b48388c65016f6b848cfc4f74\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177334934","content_text":"Adobe shares hit a new high in morning trading.Adobe Inc on Thursday said it was partnering with San Francisco-based startup Bolt to add one-click checkouts for retailers that use Adobe's e-commerce software tools.\nOnce known for software such as Photoshop, Adobe has branched out into digital marketing and e-commerce tools for retailers.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":787,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":878580733,"gmtCreate":1637206449993,"gmtModify":1637206449993,"author":{"id":"3582610171578564","authorId":"3582610171578564","name":"Jujulim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c529bfe97e53fc04a89781a34f76b53e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582610171578564","authorIdStr":"3582610171578564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Really???&nbsp;","listText":"Really???&nbsp;","text":"Really???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878580733","repostId":"1189316240","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189316240","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1637150126,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189316240?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-17 19:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Visa slid over 2% in premarket trading as Amazon would stop accepting Visa's UK-issued credit cards over high fees","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189316240","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Visa slid over 2% in premarket trading as Amazon would stop accepting Visa's UK-issued credit cards over high fees.Amazon.com Inc said on Wednesday it would stop accepting Visa Inc credit cards issued in the United Kingdom from next year due to the high fees charged by the payment processor for transactions.\"As a result of Visa's continued high cost of payments, we regret that Amazon.co.uk will no longer accept UK-issued Visa credit cards as of 19 January, 2022,\" an Amazon spokesperson said in a","content":"<p>Visa slid over 2% in premarket trading as Amazon would stop accepting Visa's UK-issued credit cards over high fees.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ab56987ee8074fe0e12c4c221fa2499\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"575\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Amazon.com Inc&nbsp;said on Wednesday it would stop accepting Visa Inc&nbsp;credit cards issued in the United Kingdom from next year due to the high fees charged by the payment processor for transactions.</p>\n<p>\"As a result of Visa's continued high cost of payments, we regret that Amazon.co.uk will no longer accept UK-issued Visa credit cards as of 19 January, 2022,\" an Amazon spokesperson said in an emailed statement.</p>\n<p>Amazon customers can still use Visa debit cards, Mastercard and Amex credit cards, and Eurocard, the company said in a note to its customers.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Visa slid over 2% in premarket trading as Amazon would stop accepting Visa's UK-issued credit cards over high fees</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVisa slid over 2% in premarket trading as Amazon would stop accepting Visa's UK-issued credit cards over high fees\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-17 19:55</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Visa slid over 2% in premarket trading as Amazon would stop accepting Visa's UK-issued credit cards over high fees.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ab56987ee8074fe0e12c4c221fa2499\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"575\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Amazon.com Inc&nbsp;said on Wednesday it would stop accepting Visa Inc&nbsp;credit cards issued in the United Kingdom from next year due to the high fees charged by the payment processor for transactions.</p>\n<p>\"As a result of Visa's continued high cost of payments, we regret that Amazon.co.uk will no longer accept UK-issued Visa credit cards as of 19 January, 2022,\" an Amazon spokesperson said in an emailed statement.</p>\n<p>Amazon customers can still use Visa debit cards, Mastercard and Amex credit cards, and Eurocard, the company said in a note to its customers.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"V":"Visa","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189316240","content_text":"Visa slid over 2% in premarket trading as Amazon would stop accepting Visa's UK-issued credit cards over high fees.Amazon.com Inc said on Wednesday it would stop accepting Visa Inc credit cards issued in the United Kingdom from next year due to the high fees charged by the payment processor for transactions.\n\"As a result of Visa's continued high cost of payments, we regret that Amazon.co.uk will no longer accept UK-issued Visa credit cards as of 19 January, 2022,\" an Amazon spokesperson said in an emailed statement.\nAmazon customers can still use Visa debit cards, Mastercard and Amex credit cards, and Eurocard, the company said in a note to its customers.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879113054,"gmtCreate":1636689109427,"gmtModify":1636689109575,"author":{"id":"3582610171578564","authorId":"3582610171578564","name":"Jujulim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c529bfe97e53fc04a89781a34f76b53e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582610171578564","authorIdStr":"3582610171578564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879113054","repostId":"1104158261","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":977,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":870637304,"gmtCreate":1636609356180,"gmtModify":1636609356180,"author":{"id":"3582610171578564","authorId":"3582610171578564","name":"Jujulim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c529bfe97e53fc04a89781a34f76b53e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582610171578564","authorIdStr":"3582610171578564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for the article!&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for the article!&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for the article!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870637304","repostId":"1179287524","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179287524","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636532973,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179287524?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-10 16:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't Get Too Comfortable: The Crash May Be Coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179287524","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTech stocks are surging left and right like it's 1999 all over again.\nThe S&P 500's cyclica","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tech stocks are surging left and right like it's 1999 all over again.</li>\n <li>The S&amp;P 500's cyclically adjusted P/E ratio was higher just once before now. Yes, you guessed it, leading up to the 2000 market top.</li>\n <li>While technology is leading the charge, sky-high valuations seem to be widespread amongst multiple sectors.</li>\n <li>A correction in ultra-high multiple names combined with multiple compression in more mature companies could cause a market meltdown soon.</li>\n <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of The Financial Prophet get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>There is extensive froth in the stock market right now, and you don't have to go far or dig deep to see what I mean.</p>\n<p><b>The S&amp;P 500/SPX</b>(SP500)</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2323fa4ed6b27420f5433954b61f797b\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"772\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: StockCharts.com</span></p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 has now gained about 10% since I&nbsp;began calling to an end&nbsp;to the recent pullback at the lows several weeks ago. We've seen remarkable gains in a short time frame, as the SPX has appreciated in 18 out of its last 20 trading sessions. Moreover, the major stock average is up by about 35% over the previous year.</p>\n<p>Technically, the image is significantly overheated right now. The relative strength index (\"RSI\") is nearing 80, the highest level in over a year. The last time the RSI surged to 80 was right before the 10% correction last September. Moreover, the full stochastic is elevated and looks ready to turn downward, implying a possible shift in sentiment.</p>\n<p><b>Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF</b>(QQQ)</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc9224a93768c8e3e6fca68a191e0da\" tg-width=\"721\" tg-height=\"772\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: StockCharts.com</span></p>\n<p>The Nasdaq 100 is even worse. QQQ looks like it topped out at $400, about a 15% gain from recent lows just several weeks ago. The RSI reached the absurdly high 80 levels and is hovering around 77, signaling highly overbought technical conditions. Incredibly, were looking at about a 43% gain over the last year here. Several other technical elements jump out. QQQ's price is now about 7% above its 50-day moving average. Again, the last time we saw anything close to this disconnect was the short-term top going into September 2020. Now we see the full stochastic turning downward, and the black candle at the recent top could mean that high-flying tech stocks are ready to head lower for now.</p>\n<p>Tech Stocks Gone Wild</p>\n<p>There is no shortage of froth in the tech sector today. I don't mean just technically, as fundamentally, some valuations seem absurd right now.</p>\n<p><b>NVIDIA</b>(NVDA)</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fee6e0df3997c0eb900abe5f6c0fc89\" tg-width=\"723\" tg-height=\"772\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: StockCharts.com</span></p>\n<p>Nvidia is a great company, and the stock has performed exceptionally well lately. Possibly too well, as shares have nearly tripled in just about one year, and the company is approaching a forward&nbsp;P/E valuation of 80 now. Also, if you thought an RSI of 80 was high, check out Nvidia pushing up to around 90 right now. In some cases, an 80 P/E ratio could make sense, but Nvidia is not likely to show exceptional earnings growth in future years. On the contrary, projections illustrate the probability of modest EPS growth in upcoming years.</p>\n<p>Therefore, Nvidia with a forward P/E ratio of 80 doesn't make sense in my mind. Additionally, the company is now around a $750 billion valuation with just about $25 billion in revenues set to come in this year. Thus, Nvidia is trading at about 30 times sales right now.</p>\n<p>Thirty times sales, what? Is Nvidia a rapidly growing small-cap tech or biotechnology firm? No, it is not. Nvidia is the top tech stock gone wild lately. It is now a mega-cap tech name, the&nbsp;number 7 weight wise&nbsp;company in the S&amp;P 500, and it looks hugely overvalued at this point.</p>\n<p>I am no Nvidia bear, and I owned shares in prior quarters. Possibly the only reason I don't own Nvidia now is that I have AMD in my portfolio. However, with the stock now 36% above its 50-day MA on essentially no news, things are getting absurd.</p>\n<p>Nvidia could drop by 33% from here, and it would still be relatively expensive at $200 with a forward multiple above $50.</p>\n<p><b>Tesla</b>(TSLA)</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c21876fcb512c6599d06c5e93452165\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"771\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: StockCharts.com</span></p>\n<p>If you thought Nvidia's valuation was an end to the madness, it's not, likely only the beginning. Let's talk about Tesla for a minute. Now, I am a long-term supporter of Tesla, I've owned the company's shares for a long time, and I've written many positive articles about the company. The first article I ever wrote on Seeking Alpha was \"Will Tesla Become A Trillion Dollar Company?\" Now, Tesla became a trillion-dollar company much sooner than I anticipated, and I took profits in the stock at around $1,200 recently.</p>\n<p>I still like Tesla longer-term, but let's face it, we're dealing with a stock that has expanded by about 4.5X over the last year (this is on top of a remarkable runup the previous year). While it might not be fair to judge Tesla's valuation on its 190 forward P/E multiple, I think the stock is richly priced at 22 times sales.</p>\n<p>Technically, the image is mind-boggling, as Tesla recently surged to 50% above its 50-day MA and hit an RSI level well above 90. Tesla is now the fifth-largest S&amp;P 500 component and accounts for about 2.5% of the major average's weight.</p>\n<p>Tesla is not the only stock to go wild in the EV space. We see other players like Lucid (LCID) hitting ludicrous valuations. Lucid now trades at a valuation of&nbsp;around $70 billion, while analysts anticipate the company to bring in about $1.7 billion in revenues next year. We're looking at a forward P/S ratio of about 40 here now. Lucid is another stock that has been up by about 4.5X over the last year, and this is another nameI took profits in recently.</p>\n<p>Tesla could drop to around $800 - 900 support, roughly around a 25-33% pullback from recent highs. The stock would look far more attractive then.</p>\n<p><b>Advanced Micro Devices</b>(AMD)</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/008840326856d3681371b0d0f4f384d4\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"773\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: StockCharts.com</span></p>\n<p>AMD has been one of my favorite stocks recently, and this is one that I'm still long for now. However, the recent runup has been intense. We see an RSI closing in on 90, and this name has nearly doubled over the last year. Yet, at about&nbsp;ten times sales&nbsp;and a forward P/E below 50, it seems relatively cheap to names like Nvidia and others right now. Incredibly, right?</p>\n<p>The list of big tech stocks surging lately can go on and on, but I want to look at the most prominent tech stock in the world that is not surging lately. I think it is pretty telling what Apple's stock is doing right now.</p>\n<p>AMD could use about a 20% discount around here. A forward P/E ratio closer to 40 would make the stock much more attractive at approximately $120 a share. I am using spreads to hedge my position here. Otherwise, I would take profits now.</p>\n<p><b>Apple</b>(AAPL)</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63d6d781b612860c8e34e5d7f53f2988\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"771\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: StockCharts.com - Apple could get its P/E ratio compressed to around 20, implying a price of about $112 for its shares.</span></p>\n<p>So, what is Apple doing lately? Well, not much, as the stock is not skyrocketing to new ATHs as many other technology names are right now. It appears that Apple topped out in early September and has failed to make new highs since. Now, we see a lower high being put in, and Apple looks like it could trade sideways or even head lower for now.</p>\n<p>Now, I spoke about&nbsp;Apple being dead money&nbsp;in my previous article on the company, but there is a good reason for this, in my view. While Apple is not trading at 80 or 50 times forward earnings projections, the company is trading at about27 times forward earning&nbsp;sexpectations. The problem is that while AMD, Nvidia, Tesla, and others are still strong growth stories, Apple likely has minimal growth potential in the next few years.</p>\n<p>Analysts are typically bullish on Apple but predict low single-digit revenue and EPS growth in future years. So, why is Apple trading at such a premium multiple? After all, 27 times forward earnings are not cheap, and even in the current environment, a company should have robust growth prospects for the next several years.</p>\n<p>Apple seems overvalued here, and the company does not deserve such a premium multiple given the probability for stagnant growth in the next several years. Therefore, we could see multiple compression in Apple from now on, and the company's downturn could drag the broader down as well.</p>\n<p>The problem is that Apple accounts for a substantial portion of the S&amp;P 500's weight (6%). Another problem is that Apple is not alone, and this may come as a surprise to many people, but Apple is not even the most significant component of the SPX.</p>\n<p><b>Microsoft</b>(MSFT):</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9788532fa13a3b90f86289660c2cb238\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"771\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: StockCharts.com -Microsoft's stock would look much more attractive with a forward P/E ratio of about 30, suggesting a 20% correction for the stock. Microsoft at $270 looks like a much better buy than it is now.</span></p>\n<p>Talk about being overbought technically. Just look at Microsoft. The RSI here is approaching 80, the stock is up by nearly 60% over the last year, and Microsoft is now the most valuable company globally. Yes, this $2.52 trillion behemoth now accounts for around 6.35% of the SPX's weight. Now, I wish I could say that Microsoft is relatively inexpensive, but that is far from true. On the contrary, Microsoft trades at a whopping37 times forward earnings&nbsp;expectations.</p>\n<p>Granted, Microsoft offers better growth prospects than Apple in future years, but nearly 40 times forward estimates for a stock that could increase earnings by about 10-15% next year is very expensive. We don't typically value huge companies relative to their sales, but Microsoft now trades at a ridiculously high 15 times TTM sales.</p>\n<p>I also want to emphasize the growing influence of big tech in the S&amp;P 500 and other major averages. The top seven weighted holdings in the S&amp;P 500 are seven giant tech companies that account for a whopping27% of the index's weight. It's not difficult to imagine what will happen to the S&amp;P 500 and other major stock indexes when this massive tech bubble unwinds or corrects down the line.</p>\n<p><b>S&amp;P 500 Shiller P/E ratio</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2758adbaf32d04dd18b08589062e6f62\" tg-width=\"1669\" tg-height=\"739\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:multpl.com</span></p>\n<p>I spoke about Microsoft's lofty forward P/E ratio, but it is essentially in line with the Shiller/cyclically adjusted P/E ratio on the entire S&amp;P 500 right now. So, we see that this phenomenon of remarkably high valuations is not only concentrated in tech but is widespread right now. We also see that similar valuations have only been observed once before in history. Yes, around the height of the dot-com bubble, some of us know how that turned out, and the outcome was unfavorable for stocks.</p>\n<p>Another factor I want to go over is that while I use a forward P/E in many instances, no one knows what company earnings will be next year. We saw quite a few&nbsp;misses last quarter, far more disappointing results than was expected. Apple and Amazon (AMZN) are just a couple of examples, but many more big names missed guidance.</p>\n<p><b>Therefore, if we look at TTM P/E multiples:</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Microsoft: 42</li>\n <li>Apple: 27</li>\n <li>Nvidia: 90</li>\n <li>Tesla: 228</li>\n <li>AMD: 63</li>\n <li>Lucid: N/A</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The Bottom Line</p>\n<p>We see many names trading at extremely high valuations right now. Moreover, many prominent companies and major stock market averages are grossly overbought technically. While I focused primarily on the dominant tech companies that account for a massive part of the S&amp;P 500's total weight, the frothy valuations go well beyond technology. The stock market, in general, looks frothy here technically, as well as from a fundamental perspective. Now, we could see a dynamic where the ultra-high multiple names that have skyrocketed lately begin to pull back. Simultaneously, we could see companies like Apple trade sideways or ever move lower due to growth concerns and subsequent multiple contractions. The result could be a \"deflation\" of the current bubble, which could cause a correction or even a mini-crash to occur as we advance into next year.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't Get Too Comfortable: The Crash May Be Coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't Get Too Comfortable: The Crash May Be Coming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-10 16:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4467619-dont-get-too-comfortable-the-crash-is-coming><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTech stocks are surging left and right like it's 1999 all over again.\nThe S&P 500's cyclically adjusted P/E ratio was higher just once before now. Yes, you guessed it, leading up to the 2000 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4467619-dont-get-too-comfortable-the-crash-is-coming\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4467619-dont-get-too-comfortable-the-crash-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1179287524","content_text":"Summary\n\nTech stocks are surging left and right like it's 1999 all over again.\nThe S&P 500's cyclically adjusted P/E ratio was higher just once before now. Yes, you guessed it, leading up to the 2000 market top.\nWhile technology is leading the charge, sky-high valuations seem to be widespread amongst multiple sectors.\nA correction in ultra-high multiple names combined with multiple compression in more mature companies could cause a market meltdown soon.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of The Financial Prophet get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\n\nThere is extensive froth in the stock market right now, and you don't have to go far or dig deep to see what I mean.\nThe S&P 500/SPX(SP500)\nSource: StockCharts.com\nThe S&P 500 has now gained about 10% since I began calling to an end to the recent pullback at the lows several weeks ago. We've seen remarkable gains in a short time frame, as the SPX has appreciated in 18 out of its last 20 trading sessions. Moreover, the major stock average is up by about 35% over the previous year.\nTechnically, the image is significantly overheated right now. The relative strength index (\"RSI\") is nearing 80, the highest level in over a year. The last time the RSI surged to 80 was right before the 10% correction last September. Moreover, the full stochastic is elevated and looks ready to turn downward, implying a possible shift in sentiment.\nInvesco Nasdaq 100 ETF(QQQ)\nSource: StockCharts.com\nThe Nasdaq 100 is even worse. QQQ looks like it topped out at $400, about a 15% gain from recent lows just several weeks ago. The RSI reached the absurdly high 80 levels and is hovering around 77, signaling highly overbought technical conditions. Incredibly, were looking at about a 43% gain over the last year here. Several other technical elements jump out. QQQ's price is now about 7% above its 50-day moving average. Again, the last time we saw anything close to this disconnect was the short-term top going into September 2020. Now we see the full stochastic turning downward, and the black candle at the recent top could mean that high-flying tech stocks are ready to head lower for now.\nTech Stocks Gone Wild\nThere is no shortage of froth in the tech sector today. I don't mean just technically, as fundamentally, some valuations seem absurd right now.\nNVIDIA(NVDA)\nSource: StockCharts.com\nNvidia is a great company, and the stock has performed exceptionally well lately. Possibly too well, as shares have nearly tripled in just about one year, and the company is approaching a forward P/E valuation of 80 now. Also, if you thought an RSI of 80 was high, check out Nvidia pushing up to around 90 right now. In some cases, an 80 P/E ratio could make sense, but Nvidia is not likely to show exceptional earnings growth in future years. On the contrary, projections illustrate the probability of modest EPS growth in upcoming years.\nTherefore, Nvidia with a forward P/E ratio of 80 doesn't make sense in my mind. Additionally, the company is now around a $750 billion valuation with just about $25 billion in revenues set to come in this year. Thus, Nvidia is trading at about 30 times sales right now.\nThirty times sales, what? Is Nvidia a rapidly growing small-cap tech or biotechnology firm? No, it is not. Nvidia is the top tech stock gone wild lately. It is now a mega-cap tech name, the number 7 weight wise company in the S&P 500, and it looks hugely overvalued at this point.\nI am no Nvidia bear, and I owned shares in prior quarters. Possibly the only reason I don't own Nvidia now is that I have AMD in my portfolio. However, with the stock now 36% above its 50-day MA on essentially no news, things are getting absurd.\nNvidia could drop by 33% from here, and it would still be relatively expensive at $200 with a forward multiple above $50.\nTesla(TSLA)\nSource: StockCharts.com\nIf you thought Nvidia's valuation was an end to the madness, it's not, likely only the beginning. Let's talk about Tesla for a minute. Now, I am a long-term supporter of Tesla, I've owned the company's shares for a long time, and I've written many positive articles about the company. The first article I ever wrote on Seeking Alpha was \"Will Tesla Become A Trillion Dollar Company?\" Now, Tesla became a trillion-dollar company much sooner than I anticipated, and I took profits in the stock at around $1,200 recently.\nI still like Tesla longer-term, but let's face it, we're dealing with a stock that has expanded by about 4.5X over the last year (this is on top of a remarkable runup the previous year). While it might not be fair to judge Tesla's valuation on its 190 forward P/E multiple, I think the stock is richly priced at 22 times sales.\nTechnically, the image is mind-boggling, as Tesla recently surged to 50% above its 50-day MA and hit an RSI level well above 90. Tesla is now the fifth-largest S&P 500 component and accounts for about 2.5% of the major average's weight.\nTesla is not the only stock to go wild in the EV space. We see other players like Lucid (LCID) hitting ludicrous valuations. Lucid now trades at a valuation of around $70 billion, while analysts anticipate the company to bring in about $1.7 billion in revenues next year. We're looking at a forward P/S ratio of about 40 here now. Lucid is another stock that has been up by about 4.5X over the last year, and this is another nameI took profits in recently.\nTesla could drop to around $800 - 900 support, roughly around a 25-33% pullback from recent highs. The stock would look far more attractive then.\nAdvanced Micro Devices(AMD)\nSource: StockCharts.com\nAMD has been one of my favorite stocks recently, and this is one that I'm still long for now. However, the recent runup has been intense. We see an RSI closing in on 90, and this name has nearly doubled over the last year. Yet, at about ten times sales and a forward P/E below 50, it seems relatively cheap to names like Nvidia and others right now. Incredibly, right?\nThe list of big tech stocks surging lately can go on and on, but I want to look at the most prominent tech stock in the world that is not surging lately. I think it is pretty telling what Apple's stock is doing right now.\nAMD could use about a 20% discount around here. A forward P/E ratio closer to 40 would make the stock much more attractive at approximately $120 a share. I am using spreads to hedge my position here. Otherwise, I would take profits now.\nApple(AAPL)\nSource: StockCharts.com - Apple could get its P/E ratio compressed to around 20, implying a price of about $112 for its shares.\nSo, what is Apple doing lately? Well, not much, as the stock is not skyrocketing to new ATHs as many other technology names are right now. It appears that Apple topped out in early September and has failed to make new highs since. Now, we see a lower high being put in, and Apple looks like it could trade sideways or even head lower for now.\nNow, I spoke about Apple being dead money in my previous article on the company, but there is a good reason for this, in my view. While Apple is not trading at 80 or 50 times forward earnings projections, the company is trading at about27 times forward earning sexpectations. The problem is that while AMD, Nvidia, Tesla, and others are still strong growth stories, Apple likely has minimal growth potential in the next few years.\nAnalysts are typically bullish on Apple but predict low single-digit revenue and EPS growth in future years. So, why is Apple trading at such a premium multiple? After all, 27 times forward earnings are not cheap, and even in the current environment, a company should have robust growth prospects for the next several years.\nApple seems overvalued here, and the company does not deserve such a premium multiple given the probability for stagnant growth in the next several years. Therefore, we could see multiple compression in Apple from now on, and the company's downturn could drag the broader down as well.\nThe problem is that Apple accounts for a substantial portion of the S&P 500's weight (6%). Another problem is that Apple is not alone, and this may come as a surprise to many people, but Apple is not even the most significant component of the SPX.\nMicrosoft(MSFT):\nSource: StockCharts.com -Microsoft's stock would look much more attractive with a forward P/E ratio of about 30, suggesting a 20% correction for the stock. Microsoft at $270 looks like a much better buy than it is now.\nTalk about being overbought technically. Just look at Microsoft. The RSI here is approaching 80, the stock is up by nearly 60% over the last year, and Microsoft is now the most valuable company globally. Yes, this $2.52 trillion behemoth now accounts for around 6.35% of the SPX's weight. Now, I wish I could say that Microsoft is relatively inexpensive, but that is far from true. On the contrary, Microsoft trades at a whopping37 times forward earnings expectations.\nGranted, Microsoft offers better growth prospects than Apple in future years, but nearly 40 times forward estimates for a stock that could increase earnings by about 10-15% next year is very expensive. We don't typically value huge companies relative to their sales, but Microsoft now trades at a ridiculously high 15 times TTM sales.\nI also want to emphasize the growing influence of big tech in the S&P 500 and other major averages. The top seven weighted holdings in the S&P 500 are seven giant tech companies that account for a whopping27% of the index's weight. It's not difficult to imagine what will happen to the S&P 500 and other major stock indexes when this massive tech bubble unwinds or corrects down the line.\nS&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio\nSource:multpl.com\nI spoke about Microsoft's lofty forward P/E ratio, but it is essentially in line with the Shiller/cyclically adjusted P/E ratio on the entire S&P 500 right now. So, we see that this phenomenon of remarkably high valuations is not only concentrated in tech but is widespread right now. We also see that similar valuations have only been observed once before in history. Yes, around the height of the dot-com bubble, some of us know how that turned out, and the outcome was unfavorable for stocks.\nAnother factor I want to go over is that while I use a forward P/E in many instances, no one knows what company earnings will be next year. We saw quite a few misses last quarter, far more disappointing results than was expected. Apple and Amazon (AMZN) are just a couple of examples, but many more big names missed guidance.\nTherefore, if we look at TTM P/E multiples:\n\nMicrosoft: 42\nApple: 27\nNvidia: 90\nTesla: 228\nAMD: 63\nLucid: N/A\n\nThe Bottom Line\nWe see many names trading at extremely high valuations right now. Moreover, many prominent companies and major stock market averages are grossly overbought technically. While I focused primarily on the dominant tech companies that account for a massive part of the S&P 500's total weight, the frothy valuations go well beyond technology. The stock market, in general, looks frothy here technically, as well as from a fundamental perspective. Now, we could see a dynamic where the ultra-high multiple names that have skyrocketed lately begin to pull back. Simultaneously, we could see companies like Apple trade sideways or ever move lower due to growth concerns and subsequent multiple contractions. The result could be a \"deflation\" of the current bubble, which could cause a correction or even a mini-crash to occur as we advance into next year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":967,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841688023,"gmtCreate":1635906941250,"gmtModify":1635906941250,"author":{"id":"3582610171578564","authorId":"3582610171578564","name":"Jujulim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c529bfe97e53fc04a89781a34f76b53e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582610171578564","authorIdStr":"3582610171578564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yay! More dividends!&nbsp;","listText":"Yay! More dividends!&nbsp;","text":"Yay! More dividends!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841688023","repostId":"1168063748","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":158911105,"gmtCreate":1625121190307,"gmtModify":1633944556518,"author":{"id":"3582610171578564","authorId":"3582610171578564","name":"Jujulim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c529bfe97e53fc04a89781a34f76b53e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582610171578564","authorIdStr":"3582610171578564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good! Keep going!&nbsp;","listText":"Good! Keep going!&nbsp;","text":"Good! Keep going!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158911105","repostId":"2148511843","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":159,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124989411,"gmtCreate":1624719099433,"gmtModify":1633949317330,"author":{"id":"3582610171578564","authorId":"3582610171578564","name":"Jujulim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c529bfe97e53fc04a89781a34f76b53e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582610171578564","authorIdStr":"3582610171578564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great article","listText":"Great article","text":"Great article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124989411","repostId":"1164137597","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164137597","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624671774,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1164137597?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-26 09:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: Can BABA Get Back To $300? Yes, It Can","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164137597","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The recent downturn in Alibaba's share price has created an investment opportunity for long-term capital appreciation.The Chinese economy is expected to become the world's largest economy by 2028 and more than 500 million people will be part of the middle class by end of 2023.Alibaba will experience tailwinds from individuals and businesses spending more money during this period of growth in China.Alibaba is the dominant force in cloud services in China which could become a significant revenue g","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The recent downturn in Alibaba's share price has created an investment opportunity for long-term capital appreciation.</li>\n <li>The Chinese economy is expected to become the world's largest economy by 2028 and more than 500 million people will be part of the middle class by end of 2023.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will experience tailwinds from individuals and businesses spending more money during this period of growth in China.</li>\n <li>Alibaba is the dominant force in cloud services in China which could become a significant revenue growth machine as the economy expands.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/814b0a9a0d17977f43665e2eba205b1e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Andrew Braun/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Alibaba(NYSE:BABA)operates a printing press that keeps spitting out tens of billions from total revenue down to net income. Many companies faced adversity throughout the pandemic, and some are still recovering, but not BABA. Through the worst economic environment for businesses to navigate in recent times, BABA generated over $100 billion in revenue and $20 billion in net income during their recent fiscal year. While BABA didn't get the memo about businesses facing challenges amidst the pandemic, the market must not have read BABA's earnings report or crunched the numbers.</p>\n<p>There are two Chinese companies I am bullish on, and BABA is my biggest conviction for appreciation. BABA smashed through the $300 share price level at the end of October 2020, but shareholders have been left confused and disappointed since then. It looked like BABA would turn the corner after a horrible end to 2020 as shares appreciated from $222.36 from the close of 2020 to $270.83 in the middle of February 2021. Still, the markets had other plans, and all shares of BABA have done is disappoint shareholders. If you missed the BABA train, it's time to grab your tickets and climb aboard, and if you purchased BABA during its run to $300 or early 2021 rebound, it might be time to add to your holdings. BABA is going to experience tremendous tailwinds from China's population and economic growth over the next several years, and their printing press is going to need more ink.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86da7b532f25f563d08490ddc43cbede\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>(Source: Alibaba)</span></p>\n<p><b>The Alibaba printing press is open for business, and it spits out billions</b></p>\n<p>How many companies can say their annual revenue through the pandemic exceeded $100 billion? The $100 billion revenue mark is a prestigious club that companies such as&nbsp;Facebook (FB),PepsiCo (PEP),Procter &amp; Gamble (PG),Target (TGT), and&nbsp;Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ)&nbsp;are not part of. BABA, on the other hand, witnessed its revenue increase by 52.11% and smash through $100 billion as they generated $109.47 billion in their recent fiscal year. For the year ending March 2019, BABA's revenue increased by $16.25 billion (40.74%) to $56.15 billion, then for the March 2020 fiscal year, revenue increased another $15.82 billion (28.17%) to $71.97 billion. BABA is in the same boat as Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(GOOGL), FB, and Amazon (AMZN) as they watched the pandemic push more people to go digital which accelerated their businesses. For BABA, the forced transition to digital helped them achieve $37.5 billion (52.11%) in additional revenue as they finished their March 2021 fiscal year with $109.47 billion in revenue.</p>\n<p>Since 2013 BABA has not had a year where their annual revenue increase didn't exceed 25% Year over Year (YoY). When you think about that as a growth rate, it's remarkable for a company of BABA's size as this isn't a company chasing its first billion-dollar revenue year. Over the past 5 fiscal years, BABA's annual revenue has increased by $93.8 billion (408.08%) at an average annual rate of 48.25%. Smaller companies considered growth companies would be jealous of these rates, while many large caps are probably envious.</p>\n<p>BABA isn't a one-trick pony that can only generate tens of billions in revenue. BABA can convert right down to the bottom line. Each year BABA has increased its YoY gross profit by a minimum of 10% since 2013. In 2016 BABA generated $10.35 billion in gross profit and, over the next 5 fiscal years, increased its annual gross profit by $34.84 billion (336.68%). BABA has also never fallen below a 40% gross profit margin, Warren Buffett's magic number, as he indicates in<i>Warren Buffett and the Interpretation of Financial Statements. On page 34 of the Kindle edition,it says:</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n As a very general rule (and there are exceptions): Companies with gross profit margins of 40% or better tend to be companies with some sort of durable competitive advantage. Companies with gross profit margins below 40% tend to be companies in highly competitive industries, where competition is hurting overall profit margins (there are exceptions here, too).\n</blockquote>\n<p>The gross profit margin is important for investors to evaluate because it reveals how much of a company's revenue goes directly to producing it and if they have a moat around their business. BABA's numbers indicate they have a sufficient moat around their business that is hard to penetrate. With close to a decade of generating over 40% in gross profit margins, investors can expect that BABA's moat will protect its business operations for years to come.</p>\n<p>Moving to the bottom line BABA does a great job at generating profits. In their most recent fiscal year, BABA generated $22.98 billion in net income, converting more than 1/5th (20.99%) of their revenue to pure profits. Since 2013 BABA has only had 1 year where net income decreases YoY. With that track record, many options open up for BABA in the future as their cash stockpile continues to increase.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41a5e036f023fa4ced7666e06aa1de6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>(Source: Alibaba)</span></p>\n<p><b>Alibaba will continue to experience tailwinds as China's population and economy expands</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba&nbsp;achieved one billion annual active consumers globally in the fiscal year that ended in March 2021. BABA has 891 million consumers across China's retail marketplace, local consumer services and digital media and entertainment platforms, and approximately 240 million consumers outside China. BABA's annual active consumers in the China retail marketplaces were 811 million as it grew by 85 million YoY. BABA will focus on developing a digital commerce infrastructure that offers an upgraded consumer experience by seamlessly integrating online and offline. Through BABA's infrastructure, countless retailers have digitally transformed their businesses and created multiple retail formats that have enabled new consumption experiences by leveraging consumer insights and technology. BABA's ecosystem, supply chain, and diversified fulfillment services have facilitated an immense digital transformation. By investing in its infrastructure, BABA's customers can now leverage a full range of high-frequency fulfillment services that include on-demand delivery, same-or-next day delivery, and next-day pick-up services for a full range of consumable and physical products.</p>\n<p>BABA will continue to be one of the cornerstones that supports growth within China's economy, which is benefiting from the acceleration of digitalization in all aspects of life and work. China is projected to be the world's largest economy by 2028. The per-capita income in China is expected to grow by roughly 50% from 2020 to 2025.China's average economic growth&nbsp;has been projected to increase at a rate of 5.7% from 2021 to 2025, then slow to 4.5% from 2026 to 2030. As a result,China&nbsp;is on track to join the top 1/3rd of nations and overtake 56 countries in the per capita income rankings by 2025. By the end of 2022, McKinsey&nbsp;predicts&nbsp;that the middle class could expand to 550 million people which is larger than the entire U.S population.</p>\n<p>If the projections for China are correct, this should mean a windfall of cash lining BABA's coffers. It's a simple recipe; when people make more money, they tend to spend more money to enhance their lives and increase their standard of living. As BABA is a dominant force in China's retail sector, they stand to benefit from a growing economy and a larger middle class. At the end of next year, if China has anywhere close to 550 million individuals in the middle class, I believe BABA's revenue and profits will increase significantly. This trend can provide tailwinds throughout the decade for BABA, and eventually, the market will reward shareholders based on BABA's value proposition.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbde4a092d19118a2d16daabf5c027d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\"><span>(Source: Blomberg)</span></p>\n<p><b>Alibaba has tremendous growth prospects in Cloud as China continues its digitization</b></p>\n<p>Cloud computing has been red hot in the U.S. as the transition from on-prem to cloud has increased the technological capabilities for many organizations. As digitization progresses across the business landscape, cloud providers continue to increase revenue generated from their cloud segments within their overall revenue mix. For example, AWS, the cloud computing division from&nbsp;AMZN, generated $45.37 billion in 2020. Cloud continues to be an exciting sector because the digital transformation is far from being over. Hence, the prospects of new customers are enormous while reoccurring revenue is generated after the transition occurs.</p>\n<p>In China, cloud infrastructure services are still in the early innings as the entire spend was around $15 billion in 2020. In Q1 of 2021, cloud infrastructure services in&nbsp;China&nbsp;grew by 55% YoY as it reached $6 billion. China was the 2nd largest market behind the U.S, accounting for 14% of global investment, up from 12% in Q1 of 2020. With cloud spending and digitization in China increasing, this serves as a major runway for growth in Alibaba Cloud.</p>\n<p>As China's economy expands, businesses will need to become more efficient to support both operations and customer demands. Chinese companies will need to implement infrastructure that can support a digital age of the workforce while supporting cloud services used by consumers for consumption. If China passes the U.S. as the world's largest economy in the second half of this decade, the amount of growth needed in cloud services will be immense. BABA is already the leader in cloud infrastructure services in China as their 39.8% market share accounted for $2.39 billion of the $6 billion spent in Q1 2021. Over the previous 6 quarters, cloud infrastructure spending has increased by roughly $2.3 billion (76.67%) in China. Based on cloud's current trajectory, quarterly revenue is on track to double over the next 2 years, putting Q1 2023 revenue at $10.6 billion. If BABA has a 35% market share, their Q1 2023 would be $3.71 billion, placing their 2023 revenue for cloud at $14.84 billion without factoring in any growth in 2023. From a cloud aspect, China's future spending is very exciting, and BABA will be one of the major benefactors.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1759b81ce463d503a165d901e2e50d7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"728\"><span>(Source: Canalys)</span></p>\n<p><b>Alibaba has stellar financial metrics and is undervalued compared to the U.S. tech conglomerates</b></p>\n<p>For this comparison, I am going to use AMZN and GOOGL as they have been establishing their dominance in the U.S. for more than a decade. First, here are the raw numbers for AMZN, BABA, and GOOGL:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>AMZN</li>\n <li>BABA</li>\n <li>GOOGL</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The market currently places a multiple of 17.03x on AMZN's equity compared to its market cap, while its revenue multiple is 4.2x. GOOGL has a multiple of 7.17x on its equity and 8.39x on its revenue compared to market cap. AMZN and GOOGL's market caps exceed $1.5 trillion, while BABA's sits at $575.57 billion. The market is placing a 3.5x multiple on BABA's equity and 5.26x on its revenue compared to the market cap. Thus, the market is severely discounting BABA's equity and revenue generation. BABA's equity is worth 28.58% of its market cap, while AMZN's equity is equivalent to 5.87%, and GOOGL's is 13.94% of its market cap. The current discount placed on BABA's equity could create an additional tailwind for shareholders in the future.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>It's hard to dismiss the growth opportunities some companies in China are presenting, especially after the recent decline in share prices. However, I believe shares of BABA are currently undervalued based on their current financial metrics and growth rates. China's economy and the amount of capital allocated to cloud service infrastructure are expected to grow substantially over the years. These will create powerful tailwinds for BABA throughout this decade. As a result, I think shareholders have been allowed to establish a BABA or dollar cost average position at a discounted price. I plan on continuing to add shares to my position while the market is discounting BABA.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: Can BABA Get Back To $300? Yes, It Can</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: Can BABA Get Back To $300? Yes, It Can\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-26 09:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436373-alibaba-can-get-back-to-300><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe recent downturn in Alibaba's share price has created an investment opportunity for long-term capital appreciation.\nThe Chinese economy is expected to become the world's largest economy by...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436373-alibaba-can-get-back-to-300\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436373-alibaba-can-get-back-to-300","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164137597","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe recent downturn in Alibaba's share price has created an investment opportunity for long-term capital appreciation.\nThe Chinese economy is expected to become the world's largest economy by 2028 and more than 500 million people will be part of the middle class by end of 2023.\nAlibaba will experience tailwinds from individuals and businesses spending more money during this period of growth in China.\nAlibaba is the dominant force in cloud services in China which could become a significant revenue growth machine as the economy expands.\n\nAndrew Braun/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nAlibaba(NYSE:BABA)operates a printing press that keeps spitting out tens of billions from total revenue down to net income. Many companies faced adversity throughout the pandemic, and some are still recovering, but not BABA. Through the worst economic environment for businesses to navigate in recent times, BABA generated over $100 billion in revenue and $20 billion in net income during their recent fiscal year. While BABA didn't get the memo about businesses facing challenges amidst the pandemic, the market must not have read BABA's earnings report or crunched the numbers.\nThere are two Chinese companies I am bullish on, and BABA is my biggest conviction for appreciation. BABA smashed through the $300 share price level at the end of October 2020, but shareholders have been left confused and disappointed since then. It looked like BABA would turn the corner after a horrible end to 2020 as shares appreciated from $222.36 from the close of 2020 to $270.83 in the middle of February 2021. Still, the markets had other plans, and all shares of BABA have done is disappoint shareholders. If you missed the BABA train, it's time to grab your tickets and climb aboard, and if you purchased BABA during its run to $300 or early 2021 rebound, it might be time to add to your holdings. BABA is going to experience tremendous tailwinds from China's population and economic growth over the next several years, and their printing press is going to need more ink.\n(Source: Alibaba)\nThe Alibaba printing press is open for business, and it spits out billions\nHow many companies can say their annual revenue through the pandemic exceeded $100 billion? The $100 billion revenue mark is a prestigious club that companies such as Facebook (FB),PepsiCo (PEP),Procter & Gamble (PG),Target (TGT), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) are not part of. BABA, on the other hand, witnessed its revenue increase by 52.11% and smash through $100 billion as they generated $109.47 billion in their recent fiscal year. For the year ending March 2019, BABA's revenue increased by $16.25 billion (40.74%) to $56.15 billion, then for the March 2020 fiscal year, revenue increased another $15.82 billion (28.17%) to $71.97 billion. BABA is in the same boat as Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(GOOGL), FB, and Amazon (AMZN) as they watched the pandemic push more people to go digital which accelerated their businesses. For BABA, the forced transition to digital helped them achieve $37.5 billion (52.11%) in additional revenue as they finished their March 2021 fiscal year with $109.47 billion in revenue.\nSince 2013 BABA has not had a year where their annual revenue increase didn't exceed 25% Year over Year (YoY). When you think about that as a growth rate, it's remarkable for a company of BABA's size as this isn't a company chasing its first billion-dollar revenue year. Over the past 5 fiscal years, BABA's annual revenue has increased by $93.8 billion (408.08%) at an average annual rate of 48.25%. Smaller companies considered growth companies would be jealous of these rates, while many large caps are probably envious.\nBABA isn't a one-trick pony that can only generate tens of billions in revenue. BABA can convert right down to the bottom line. Each year BABA has increased its YoY gross profit by a minimum of 10% since 2013. In 2016 BABA generated $10.35 billion in gross profit and, over the next 5 fiscal years, increased its annual gross profit by $34.84 billion (336.68%). BABA has also never fallen below a 40% gross profit margin, Warren Buffett's magic number, as he indicates inWarren Buffett and the Interpretation of Financial Statements. On page 34 of the Kindle edition,it says:\n\n As a very general rule (and there are exceptions): Companies with gross profit margins of 40% or better tend to be companies with some sort of durable competitive advantage. Companies with gross profit margins below 40% tend to be companies in highly competitive industries, where competition is hurting overall profit margins (there are exceptions here, too).\n\nThe gross profit margin is important for investors to evaluate because it reveals how much of a company's revenue goes directly to producing it and if they have a moat around their business. BABA's numbers indicate they have a sufficient moat around their business that is hard to penetrate. With close to a decade of generating over 40% in gross profit margins, investors can expect that BABA's moat will protect its business operations for years to come.\nMoving to the bottom line BABA does a great job at generating profits. In their most recent fiscal year, BABA generated $22.98 billion in net income, converting more than 1/5th (20.99%) of their revenue to pure profits. Since 2013 BABA has only had 1 year where net income decreases YoY. With that track record, many options open up for BABA in the future as their cash stockpile continues to increase.\n(Source: Alibaba)\nAlibaba will continue to experience tailwinds as China's population and economy expands\nAlibaba achieved one billion annual active consumers globally in the fiscal year that ended in March 2021. BABA has 891 million consumers across China's retail marketplace, local consumer services and digital media and entertainment platforms, and approximately 240 million consumers outside China. BABA's annual active consumers in the China retail marketplaces were 811 million as it grew by 85 million YoY. BABA will focus on developing a digital commerce infrastructure that offers an upgraded consumer experience by seamlessly integrating online and offline. Through BABA's infrastructure, countless retailers have digitally transformed their businesses and created multiple retail formats that have enabled new consumption experiences by leveraging consumer insights and technology. BABA's ecosystem, supply chain, and diversified fulfillment services have facilitated an immense digital transformation. By investing in its infrastructure, BABA's customers can now leverage a full range of high-frequency fulfillment services that include on-demand delivery, same-or-next day delivery, and next-day pick-up services for a full range of consumable and physical products.\nBABA will continue to be one of the cornerstones that supports growth within China's economy, which is benefiting from the acceleration of digitalization in all aspects of life and work. China is projected to be the world's largest economy by 2028. The per-capita income in China is expected to grow by roughly 50% from 2020 to 2025.China's average economic growth has been projected to increase at a rate of 5.7% from 2021 to 2025, then slow to 4.5% from 2026 to 2030. As a result,China is on track to join the top 1/3rd of nations and overtake 56 countries in the per capita income rankings by 2025. By the end of 2022, McKinsey predicts that the middle class could expand to 550 million people which is larger than the entire U.S population.\nIf the projections for China are correct, this should mean a windfall of cash lining BABA's coffers. It's a simple recipe; when people make more money, they tend to spend more money to enhance their lives and increase their standard of living. As BABA is a dominant force in China's retail sector, they stand to benefit from a growing economy and a larger middle class. At the end of next year, if China has anywhere close to 550 million individuals in the middle class, I believe BABA's revenue and profits will increase significantly. This trend can provide tailwinds throughout the decade for BABA, and eventually, the market will reward shareholders based on BABA's value proposition.\n(Source: Blomberg)\nAlibaba has tremendous growth prospects in Cloud as China continues its digitization\nCloud computing has been red hot in the U.S. as the transition from on-prem to cloud has increased the technological capabilities for many organizations. As digitization progresses across the business landscape, cloud providers continue to increase revenue generated from their cloud segments within their overall revenue mix. For example, AWS, the cloud computing division from AMZN, generated $45.37 billion in 2020. Cloud continues to be an exciting sector because the digital transformation is far from being over. Hence, the prospects of new customers are enormous while reoccurring revenue is generated after the transition occurs.\nIn China, cloud infrastructure services are still in the early innings as the entire spend was around $15 billion in 2020. In Q1 of 2021, cloud infrastructure services in China grew by 55% YoY as it reached $6 billion. China was the 2nd largest market behind the U.S, accounting for 14% of global investment, up from 12% in Q1 of 2020. With cloud spending and digitization in China increasing, this serves as a major runway for growth in Alibaba Cloud.\nAs China's economy expands, businesses will need to become more efficient to support both operations and customer demands. Chinese companies will need to implement infrastructure that can support a digital age of the workforce while supporting cloud services used by consumers for consumption. If China passes the U.S. as the world's largest economy in the second half of this decade, the amount of growth needed in cloud services will be immense. BABA is already the leader in cloud infrastructure services in China as their 39.8% market share accounted for $2.39 billion of the $6 billion spent in Q1 2021. Over the previous 6 quarters, cloud infrastructure spending has increased by roughly $2.3 billion (76.67%) in China. Based on cloud's current trajectory, quarterly revenue is on track to double over the next 2 years, putting Q1 2023 revenue at $10.6 billion. If BABA has a 35% market share, their Q1 2023 would be $3.71 billion, placing their 2023 revenue for cloud at $14.84 billion without factoring in any growth in 2023. From a cloud aspect, China's future spending is very exciting, and BABA will be one of the major benefactors.\n(Source: Canalys)\nAlibaba has stellar financial metrics and is undervalued compared to the U.S. tech conglomerates\nFor this comparison, I am going to use AMZN and GOOGL as they have been establishing their dominance in the U.S. for more than a decade. First, here are the raw numbers for AMZN, BABA, and GOOGL:\n\nAMZN\nBABA\nGOOGL\n\nThe market currently places a multiple of 17.03x on AMZN's equity compared to its market cap, while its revenue multiple is 4.2x. GOOGL has a multiple of 7.17x on its equity and 8.39x on its revenue compared to market cap. AMZN and GOOGL's market caps exceed $1.5 trillion, while BABA's sits at $575.57 billion. The market is placing a 3.5x multiple on BABA's equity and 5.26x on its revenue compared to the market cap. Thus, the market is severely discounting BABA's equity and revenue generation. BABA's equity is worth 28.58% of its market cap, while AMZN's equity is equivalent to 5.87%, and GOOGL's is 13.94% of its market cap. The current discount placed on BABA's equity could create an additional tailwind for shareholders in the future.\nConclusion\nIt's hard to dismiss the growth opportunities some companies in China are presenting, especially after the recent decline in share prices. However, I believe shares of BABA are currently undervalued based on their current financial metrics and growth rates. China's economy and the amount of capital allocated to cloud service infrastructure are expected to grow substantially over the years. These will create powerful tailwinds for BABA throughout this decade. As a result, I think shareholders have been allowed to establish a BABA or dollar cost average position at a discounted price. I plan on continuing to add shares to my position while the market is discounting BABA.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124914435,"gmtCreate":1624718680427,"gmtModify":1633949319620,"author":{"id":"3582610171578564","authorId":"3582610171578564","name":"Jujulim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c529bfe97e53fc04a89781a34f76b53e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582610171578564","authorIdStr":"3582610171578564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"At low","listText":"At low","text":"At low","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb40ce7d3121c35deb1941855d66c104","width":"750","height":"2053"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124914435","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":76,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":841688023,"gmtCreate":1635906941250,"gmtModify":1635906941250,"author":{"id":"3582610171578564","authorId":"3582610171578564","name":"Jujulim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c529bfe97e53fc04a89781a34f76b53e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582610171578564","authorIdStr":"3582610171578564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yay! More dividends!&nbsp;","listText":"Yay! More dividends!&nbsp;","text":"Yay! More dividends!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841688023","repostId":"1168063748","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":876743061,"gmtCreate":1637369007416,"gmtModify":1637369007539,"author":{"id":"3582610171578564","authorId":"3582610171578564","name":"Jujulim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c529bfe97e53fc04a89781a34f76b53e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582610171578564","authorIdStr":"3582610171578564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Way to go!&nbsp;","listText":"Way to go!&nbsp;","text":"Way to go!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876743061","repostId":"1177334934","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177334934","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1637333626,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177334934?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-19 22:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Adobe shares hit a new high in morning trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177334934","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Adobe shares hit a new high in morning trading.Adobe Inc on Thursday said it was partnering with San","content":"<p>Adobe shares hit a new high in morning trading.Adobe Inc&nbsp;on Thursday said it was partnering with San Francisco-based startup Bolt to add one-click checkouts for retailers that use Adobe's e-commerce software tools.</p>\n<p>Once known for software such as Photoshop, Adobe has branched out into digital marketing and e-commerce tools for retailers.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0b5018b48388c65016f6b848cfc4f74\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Adobe shares hit a new high in morning trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAdobe shares hit a new high in morning trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-19 22:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Adobe shares hit a new high in morning trading.Adobe Inc&nbsp;on Thursday said it was partnering with San Francisco-based startup Bolt to add one-click checkouts for retailers that use Adobe's e-commerce software tools.</p>\n<p>Once known for software such as Photoshop, Adobe has branched out into digital marketing and e-commerce tools for retailers.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0b5018b48388c65016f6b848cfc4f74\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177334934","content_text":"Adobe shares hit a new high in morning trading.Adobe Inc on Thursday said it was partnering with San Francisco-based startup Bolt to add one-click checkouts for retailers that use Adobe's e-commerce software tools.\nOnce known for software such as Photoshop, Adobe has branched out into digital marketing and e-commerce tools for retailers.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":787,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":124989411,"gmtCreate":1624719099433,"gmtModify":1633949317330,"author":{"id":"3582610171578564","authorId":"3582610171578564","name":"Jujulim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c529bfe97e53fc04a89781a34f76b53e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582610171578564","authorIdStr":"3582610171578564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great article","listText":"Great article","text":"Great article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124989411","repostId":"1164137597","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164137597","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624671774,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1164137597?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-26 09:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: Can BABA Get Back To $300? Yes, It Can","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164137597","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The recent downturn in Alibaba's share price has created an investment opportunity for long-term capital appreciation.The Chinese economy is expected to become the world's largest economy by 2028 and more than 500 million people will be part of the middle class by end of 2023.Alibaba will experience tailwinds from individuals and businesses spending more money during this period of growth in China.Alibaba is the dominant force in cloud services in China which could become a significant revenue g","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The recent downturn in Alibaba's share price has created an investment opportunity for long-term capital appreciation.</li>\n <li>The Chinese economy is expected to become the world's largest economy by 2028 and more than 500 million people will be part of the middle class by end of 2023.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will experience tailwinds from individuals and businesses spending more money during this period of growth in China.</li>\n <li>Alibaba is the dominant force in cloud services in China which could become a significant revenue growth machine as the economy expands.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/814b0a9a0d17977f43665e2eba205b1e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Andrew Braun/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Alibaba(NYSE:BABA)operates a printing press that keeps spitting out tens of billions from total revenue down to net income. Many companies faced adversity throughout the pandemic, and some are still recovering, but not BABA. Through the worst economic environment for businesses to navigate in recent times, BABA generated over $100 billion in revenue and $20 billion in net income during their recent fiscal year. While BABA didn't get the memo about businesses facing challenges amidst the pandemic, the market must not have read BABA's earnings report or crunched the numbers.</p>\n<p>There are two Chinese companies I am bullish on, and BABA is my biggest conviction for appreciation. BABA smashed through the $300 share price level at the end of October 2020, but shareholders have been left confused and disappointed since then. It looked like BABA would turn the corner after a horrible end to 2020 as shares appreciated from $222.36 from the close of 2020 to $270.83 in the middle of February 2021. Still, the markets had other plans, and all shares of BABA have done is disappoint shareholders. If you missed the BABA train, it's time to grab your tickets and climb aboard, and if you purchased BABA during its run to $300 or early 2021 rebound, it might be time to add to your holdings. BABA is going to experience tremendous tailwinds from China's population and economic growth over the next several years, and their printing press is going to need more ink.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86da7b532f25f563d08490ddc43cbede\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>(Source: Alibaba)</span></p>\n<p><b>The Alibaba printing press is open for business, and it spits out billions</b></p>\n<p>How many companies can say their annual revenue through the pandemic exceeded $100 billion? The $100 billion revenue mark is a prestigious club that companies such as&nbsp;Facebook (FB),PepsiCo (PEP),Procter &amp; Gamble (PG),Target (TGT), and&nbsp;Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ)&nbsp;are not part of. BABA, on the other hand, witnessed its revenue increase by 52.11% and smash through $100 billion as they generated $109.47 billion in their recent fiscal year. For the year ending March 2019, BABA's revenue increased by $16.25 billion (40.74%) to $56.15 billion, then for the March 2020 fiscal year, revenue increased another $15.82 billion (28.17%) to $71.97 billion. BABA is in the same boat as Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(GOOGL), FB, and Amazon (AMZN) as they watched the pandemic push more people to go digital which accelerated their businesses. For BABA, the forced transition to digital helped them achieve $37.5 billion (52.11%) in additional revenue as they finished their March 2021 fiscal year with $109.47 billion in revenue.</p>\n<p>Since 2013 BABA has not had a year where their annual revenue increase didn't exceed 25% Year over Year (YoY). When you think about that as a growth rate, it's remarkable for a company of BABA's size as this isn't a company chasing its first billion-dollar revenue year. Over the past 5 fiscal years, BABA's annual revenue has increased by $93.8 billion (408.08%) at an average annual rate of 48.25%. Smaller companies considered growth companies would be jealous of these rates, while many large caps are probably envious.</p>\n<p>BABA isn't a one-trick pony that can only generate tens of billions in revenue. BABA can convert right down to the bottom line. Each year BABA has increased its YoY gross profit by a minimum of 10% since 2013. In 2016 BABA generated $10.35 billion in gross profit and, over the next 5 fiscal years, increased its annual gross profit by $34.84 billion (336.68%). BABA has also never fallen below a 40% gross profit margin, Warren Buffett's magic number, as he indicates in<i>Warren Buffett and the Interpretation of Financial Statements. On page 34 of the Kindle edition,it says:</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n As a very general rule (and there are exceptions): Companies with gross profit margins of 40% or better tend to be companies with some sort of durable competitive advantage. Companies with gross profit margins below 40% tend to be companies in highly competitive industries, where competition is hurting overall profit margins (there are exceptions here, too).\n</blockquote>\n<p>The gross profit margin is important for investors to evaluate because it reveals how much of a company's revenue goes directly to producing it and if they have a moat around their business. BABA's numbers indicate they have a sufficient moat around their business that is hard to penetrate. With close to a decade of generating over 40% in gross profit margins, investors can expect that BABA's moat will protect its business operations for years to come.</p>\n<p>Moving to the bottom line BABA does a great job at generating profits. In their most recent fiscal year, BABA generated $22.98 billion in net income, converting more than 1/5th (20.99%) of their revenue to pure profits. Since 2013 BABA has only had 1 year where net income decreases YoY. With that track record, many options open up for BABA in the future as their cash stockpile continues to increase.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41a5e036f023fa4ced7666e06aa1de6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>(Source: Alibaba)</span></p>\n<p><b>Alibaba will continue to experience tailwinds as China's population and economy expands</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba&nbsp;achieved one billion annual active consumers globally in the fiscal year that ended in March 2021. BABA has 891 million consumers across China's retail marketplace, local consumer services and digital media and entertainment platforms, and approximately 240 million consumers outside China. BABA's annual active consumers in the China retail marketplaces were 811 million as it grew by 85 million YoY. BABA will focus on developing a digital commerce infrastructure that offers an upgraded consumer experience by seamlessly integrating online and offline. Through BABA's infrastructure, countless retailers have digitally transformed their businesses and created multiple retail formats that have enabled new consumption experiences by leveraging consumer insights and technology. BABA's ecosystem, supply chain, and diversified fulfillment services have facilitated an immense digital transformation. By investing in its infrastructure, BABA's customers can now leverage a full range of high-frequency fulfillment services that include on-demand delivery, same-or-next day delivery, and next-day pick-up services for a full range of consumable and physical products.</p>\n<p>BABA will continue to be one of the cornerstones that supports growth within China's economy, which is benefiting from the acceleration of digitalization in all aspects of life and work. China is projected to be the world's largest economy by 2028. The per-capita income in China is expected to grow by roughly 50% from 2020 to 2025.China's average economic growth&nbsp;has been projected to increase at a rate of 5.7% from 2021 to 2025, then slow to 4.5% from 2026 to 2030. As a result,China&nbsp;is on track to join the top 1/3rd of nations and overtake 56 countries in the per capita income rankings by 2025. By the end of 2022, McKinsey&nbsp;predicts&nbsp;that the middle class could expand to 550 million people which is larger than the entire U.S population.</p>\n<p>If the projections for China are correct, this should mean a windfall of cash lining BABA's coffers. It's a simple recipe; when people make more money, they tend to spend more money to enhance their lives and increase their standard of living. As BABA is a dominant force in China's retail sector, they stand to benefit from a growing economy and a larger middle class. At the end of next year, if China has anywhere close to 550 million individuals in the middle class, I believe BABA's revenue and profits will increase significantly. This trend can provide tailwinds throughout the decade for BABA, and eventually, the market will reward shareholders based on BABA's value proposition.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbde4a092d19118a2d16daabf5c027d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\"><span>(Source: Blomberg)</span></p>\n<p><b>Alibaba has tremendous growth prospects in Cloud as China continues its digitization</b></p>\n<p>Cloud computing has been red hot in the U.S. as the transition from on-prem to cloud has increased the technological capabilities for many organizations. As digitization progresses across the business landscape, cloud providers continue to increase revenue generated from their cloud segments within their overall revenue mix. For example, AWS, the cloud computing division from&nbsp;AMZN, generated $45.37 billion in 2020. Cloud continues to be an exciting sector because the digital transformation is far from being over. Hence, the prospects of new customers are enormous while reoccurring revenue is generated after the transition occurs.</p>\n<p>In China, cloud infrastructure services are still in the early innings as the entire spend was around $15 billion in 2020. In Q1 of 2021, cloud infrastructure services in&nbsp;China&nbsp;grew by 55% YoY as it reached $6 billion. China was the 2nd largest market behind the U.S, accounting for 14% of global investment, up from 12% in Q1 of 2020. With cloud spending and digitization in China increasing, this serves as a major runway for growth in Alibaba Cloud.</p>\n<p>As China's economy expands, businesses will need to become more efficient to support both operations and customer demands. Chinese companies will need to implement infrastructure that can support a digital age of the workforce while supporting cloud services used by consumers for consumption. If China passes the U.S. as the world's largest economy in the second half of this decade, the amount of growth needed in cloud services will be immense. BABA is already the leader in cloud infrastructure services in China as their 39.8% market share accounted for $2.39 billion of the $6 billion spent in Q1 2021. Over the previous 6 quarters, cloud infrastructure spending has increased by roughly $2.3 billion (76.67%) in China. Based on cloud's current trajectory, quarterly revenue is on track to double over the next 2 years, putting Q1 2023 revenue at $10.6 billion. If BABA has a 35% market share, their Q1 2023 would be $3.71 billion, placing their 2023 revenue for cloud at $14.84 billion without factoring in any growth in 2023. From a cloud aspect, China's future spending is very exciting, and BABA will be one of the major benefactors.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1759b81ce463d503a165d901e2e50d7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"728\"><span>(Source: Canalys)</span></p>\n<p><b>Alibaba has stellar financial metrics and is undervalued compared to the U.S. tech conglomerates</b></p>\n<p>For this comparison, I am going to use AMZN and GOOGL as they have been establishing their dominance in the U.S. for more than a decade. First, here are the raw numbers for AMZN, BABA, and GOOGL:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>AMZN</li>\n <li>BABA</li>\n <li>GOOGL</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The market currently places a multiple of 17.03x on AMZN's equity compared to its market cap, while its revenue multiple is 4.2x. GOOGL has a multiple of 7.17x on its equity and 8.39x on its revenue compared to market cap. AMZN and GOOGL's market caps exceed $1.5 trillion, while BABA's sits at $575.57 billion. The market is placing a 3.5x multiple on BABA's equity and 5.26x on its revenue compared to the market cap. Thus, the market is severely discounting BABA's equity and revenue generation. BABA's equity is worth 28.58% of its market cap, while AMZN's equity is equivalent to 5.87%, and GOOGL's is 13.94% of its market cap. The current discount placed on BABA's equity could create an additional tailwind for shareholders in the future.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>It's hard to dismiss the growth opportunities some companies in China are presenting, especially after the recent decline in share prices. However, I believe shares of BABA are currently undervalued based on their current financial metrics and growth rates. China's economy and the amount of capital allocated to cloud service infrastructure are expected to grow substantially over the years. These will create powerful tailwinds for BABA throughout this decade. As a result, I think shareholders have been allowed to establish a BABA or dollar cost average position at a discounted price. I plan on continuing to add shares to my position while the market is discounting BABA.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: Can BABA Get Back To $300? Yes, It Can</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: Can BABA Get Back To $300? Yes, It Can\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-26 09:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436373-alibaba-can-get-back-to-300><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe recent downturn in Alibaba's share price has created an investment opportunity for long-term capital appreciation.\nThe Chinese economy is expected to become the world's largest economy by...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436373-alibaba-can-get-back-to-300\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436373-alibaba-can-get-back-to-300","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164137597","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe recent downturn in Alibaba's share price has created an investment opportunity for long-term capital appreciation.\nThe Chinese economy is expected to become the world's largest economy by 2028 and more than 500 million people will be part of the middle class by end of 2023.\nAlibaba will experience tailwinds from individuals and businesses spending more money during this period of growth in China.\nAlibaba is the dominant force in cloud services in China which could become a significant revenue growth machine as the economy expands.\n\nAndrew Braun/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nAlibaba(NYSE:BABA)operates a printing press that keeps spitting out tens of billions from total revenue down to net income. Many companies faced adversity throughout the pandemic, and some are still recovering, but not BABA. Through the worst economic environment for businesses to navigate in recent times, BABA generated over $100 billion in revenue and $20 billion in net income during their recent fiscal year. While BABA didn't get the memo about businesses facing challenges amidst the pandemic, the market must not have read BABA's earnings report or crunched the numbers.\nThere are two Chinese companies I am bullish on, and BABA is my biggest conviction for appreciation. BABA smashed through the $300 share price level at the end of October 2020, but shareholders have been left confused and disappointed since then. It looked like BABA would turn the corner after a horrible end to 2020 as shares appreciated from $222.36 from the close of 2020 to $270.83 in the middle of February 2021. Still, the markets had other plans, and all shares of BABA have done is disappoint shareholders. If you missed the BABA train, it's time to grab your tickets and climb aboard, and if you purchased BABA during its run to $300 or early 2021 rebound, it might be time to add to your holdings. BABA is going to experience tremendous tailwinds from China's population and economic growth over the next several years, and their printing press is going to need more ink.\n(Source: Alibaba)\nThe Alibaba printing press is open for business, and it spits out billions\nHow many companies can say their annual revenue through the pandemic exceeded $100 billion? The $100 billion revenue mark is a prestigious club that companies such as Facebook (FB),PepsiCo (PEP),Procter & Gamble (PG),Target (TGT), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) are not part of. BABA, on the other hand, witnessed its revenue increase by 52.11% and smash through $100 billion as they generated $109.47 billion in their recent fiscal year. For the year ending March 2019, BABA's revenue increased by $16.25 billion (40.74%) to $56.15 billion, then for the March 2020 fiscal year, revenue increased another $15.82 billion (28.17%) to $71.97 billion. BABA is in the same boat as Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(GOOGL), FB, and Amazon (AMZN) as they watched the pandemic push more people to go digital which accelerated their businesses. For BABA, the forced transition to digital helped them achieve $37.5 billion (52.11%) in additional revenue as they finished their March 2021 fiscal year with $109.47 billion in revenue.\nSince 2013 BABA has not had a year where their annual revenue increase didn't exceed 25% Year over Year (YoY). When you think about that as a growth rate, it's remarkable for a company of BABA's size as this isn't a company chasing its first billion-dollar revenue year. Over the past 5 fiscal years, BABA's annual revenue has increased by $93.8 billion (408.08%) at an average annual rate of 48.25%. Smaller companies considered growth companies would be jealous of these rates, while many large caps are probably envious.\nBABA isn't a one-trick pony that can only generate tens of billions in revenue. BABA can convert right down to the bottom line. Each year BABA has increased its YoY gross profit by a minimum of 10% since 2013. In 2016 BABA generated $10.35 billion in gross profit and, over the next 5 fiscal years, increased its annual gross profit by $34.84 billion (336.68%). BABA has also never fallen below a 40% gross profit margin, Warren Buffett's magic number, as he indicates inWarren Buffett and the Interpretation of Financial Statements. On page 34 of the Kindle edition,it says:\n\n As a very general rule (and there are exceptions): Companies with gross profit margins of 40% or better tend to be companies with some sort of durable competitive advantage. Companies with gross profit margins below 40% tend to be companies in highly competitive industries, where competition is hurting overall profit margins (there are exceptions here, too).\n\nThe gross profit margin is important for investors to evaluate because it reveals how much of a company's revenue goes directly to producing it and if they have a moat around their business. BABA's numbers indicate they have a sufficient moat around their business that is hard to penetrate. With close to a decade of generating over 40% in gross profit margins, investors can expect that BABA's moat will protect its business operations for years to come.\nMoving to the bottom line BABA does a great job at generating profits. In their most recent fiscal year, BABA generated $22.98 billion in net income, converting more than 1/5th (20.99%) of their revenue to pure profits. Since 2013 BABA has only had 1 year where net income decreases YoY. With that track record, many options open up for BABA in the future as their cash stockpile continues to increase.\n(Source: Alibaba)\nAlibaba will continue to experience tailwinds as China's population and economy expands\nAlibaba achieved one billion annual active consumers globally in the fiscal year that ended in March 2021. BABA has 891 million consumers across China's retail marketplace, local consumer services and digital media and entertainment platforms, and approximately 240 million consumers outside China. BABA's annual active consumers in the China retail marketplaces were 811 million as it grew by 85 million YoY. BABA will focus on developing a digital commerce infrastructure that offers an upgraded consumer experience by seamlessly integrating online and offline. Through BABA's infrastructure, countless retailers have digitally transformed their businesses and created multiple retail formats that have enabled new consumption experiences by leveraging consumer insights and technology. BABA's ecosystem, supply chain, and diversified fulfillment services have facilitated an immense digital transformation. By investing in its infrastructure, BABA's customers can now leverage a full range of high-frequency fulfillment services that include on-demand delivery, same-or-next day delivery, and next-day pick-up services for a full range of consumable and physical products.\nBABA will continue to be one of the cornerstones that supports growth within China's economy, which is benefiting from the acceleration of digitalization in all aspects of life and work. China is projected to be the world's largest economy by 2028. The per-capita income in China is expected to grow by roughly 50% from 2020 to 2025.China's average economic growth has been projected to increase at a rate of 5.7% from 2021 to 2025, then slow to 4.5% from 2026 to 2030. As a result,China is on track to join the top 1/3rd of nations and overtake 56 countries in the per capita income rankings by 2025. By the end of 2022, McKinsey predicts that the middle class could expand to 550 million people which is larger than the entire U.S population.\nIf the projections for China are correct, this should mean a windfall of cash lining BABA's coffers. It's a simple recipe; when people make more money, they tend to spend more money to enhance their lives and increase their standard of living. As BABA is a dominant force in China's retail sector, they stand to benefit from a growing economy and a larger middle class. At the end of next year, if China has anywhere close to 550 million individuals in the middle class, I believe BABA's revenue and profits will increase significantly. This trend can provide tailwinds throughout the decade for BABA, and eventually, the market will reward shareholders based on BABA's value proposition.\n(Source: Blomberg)\nAlibaba has tremendous growth prospects in Cloud as China continues its digitization\nCloud computing has been red hot in the U.S. as the transition from on-prem to cloud has increased the technological capabilities for many organizations. As digitization progresses across the business landscape, cloud providers continue to increase revenue generated from their cloud segments within their overall revenue mix. For example, AWS, the cloud computing division from AMZN, generated $45.37 billion in 2020. Cloud continues to be an exciting sector because the digital transformation is far from being over. Hence, the prospects of new customers are enormous while reoccurring revenue is generated after the transition occurs.\nIn China, cloud infrastructure services are still in the early innings as the entire spend was around $15 billion in 2020. In Q1 of 2021, cloud infrastructure services in China grew by 55% YoY as it reached $6 billion. China was the 2nd largest market behind the U.S, accounting for 14% of global investment, up from 12% in Q1 of 2020. With cloud spending and digitization in China increasing, this serves as a major runway for growth in Alibaba Cloud.\nAs China's economy expands, businesses will need to become more efficient to support both operations and customer demands. Chinese companies will need to implement infrastructure that can support a digital age of the workforce while supporting cloud services used by consumers for consumption. If China passes the U.S. as the world's largest economy in the second half of this decade, the amount of growth needed in cloud services will be immense. BABA is already the leader in cloud infrastructure services in China as their 39.8% market share accounted for $2.39 billion of the $6 billion spent in Q1 2021. Over the previous 6 quarters, cloud infrastructure spending has increased by roughly $2.3 billion (76.67%) in China. Based on cloud's current trajectory, quarterly revenue is on track to double over the next 2 years, putting Q1 2023 revenue at $10.6 billion. If BABA has a 35% market share, their Q1 2023 would be $3.71 billion, placing their 2023 revenue for cloud at $14.84 billion without factoring in any growth in 2023. From a cloud aspect, China's future spending is very exciting, and BABA will be one of the major benefactors.\n(Source: Canalys)\nAlibaba has stellar financial metrics and is undervalued compared to the U.S. tech conglomerates\nFor this comparison, I am going to use AMZN and GOOGL as they have been establishing their dominance in the U.S. for more than a decade. First, here are the raw numbers for AMZN, BABA, and GOOGL:\n\nAMZN\nBABA\nGOOGL\n\nThe market currently places a multiple of 17.03x on AMZN's equity compared to its market cap, while its revenue multiple is 4.2x. GOOGL has a multiple of 7.17x on its equity and 8.39x on its revenue compared to market cap. AMZN and GOOGL's market caps exceed $1.5 trillion, while BABA's sits at $575.57 billion. The market is placing a 3.5x multiple on BABA's equity and 5.26x on its revenue compared to the market cap. Thus, the market is severely discounting BABA's equity and revenue generation. BABA's equity is worth 28.58% of its market cap, while AMZN's equity is equivalent to 5.87%, and GOOGL's is 13.94% of its market cap. The current discount placed on BABA's equity could create an additional tailwind for shareholders in the future.\nConclusion\nIt's hard to dismiss the growth opportunities some companies in China are presenting, especially after the recent decline in share prices. However, I believe shares of BABA are currently undervalued based on their current financial metrics and growth rates. China's economy and the amount of capital allocated to cloud service infrastructure are expected to grow substantially over the years. These will create powerful tailwinds for BABA throughout this decade. As a result, I think shareholders have been allowed to establish a BABA or dollar cost average position at a discounted price. I plan on continuing to add shares to my position while the market is discounting BABA.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":606396860,"gmtCreate":1638832709239,"gmtModify":1638832709326,"author":{"id":"3582610171578564","authorId":"3582610171578564","name":"Jujulim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c529bfe97e53fc04a89781a34f76b53e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582610171578564","authorIdStr":"3582610171578564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Y?&nbsp;","listText":"Y?&nbsp;","text":"Y?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606396860","repostId":"1167580246","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1061,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879113054,"gmtCreate":1636689109427,"gmtModify":1636689109575,"author":{"id":"3582610171578564","authorId":"3582610171578564","name":"Jujulim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c529bfe97e53fc04a89781a34f76b53e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582610171578564","authorIdStr":"3582610171578564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879113054","repostId":"1104158261","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":977,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875618388,"gmtCreate":1637641907757,"gmtModify":1637641907757,"author":{"id":"3582610171578564","authorId":"3582610171578564","name":"Jujulim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c529bfe97e53fc04a89781a34f76b53e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582610171578564","authorIdStr":"3582610171578564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Keep growing AMD!&nbsp;","listText":"Keep growing AMD!&nbsp;","text":"Keep growing AMD!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875618388","repostId":"1109021597","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109021597","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637638327,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109021597?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-23 11:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD Stock Just Gave Us the Best Trade of the Year. Now What?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109021597","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"AMD stock remains a potent performer, both as a trade and as an investment","content":"<p><b>Advanced Micro Devices</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>AMD</u></b>) has been an absolute beast on the long side. Despite that truth, AMD stock can actually be pretty tough to trade at times.</p>\n<p>The stock tends to go on sharp, robust runs and then consolidate for quite a while. However, patient bulls in this stock continue to be rewarded. That’s exactly what I’ve been pounding the table on — patience.</p>\n<p>If there’s one industry — or one duo — that I have a good pulse on, it’s AMD and&nbsp;<b>Nvidia</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>NVDA</u></b>). Both of these companies are incredibly well run and while the stocks don’t always reflect their great businesses, the share prices eventually reward shareholders.</p>\n<p>With AMD, the writing was all over the wall — almost literally.</p>\n<p><b>Trading AMD Stock</b></p>\n<p>Going into earnings in July,I made the case to own&nbsp;AMD stock regardless of the earnings outcome. A few days later, Advanced Micro Devices reported strong earnings and the stock exploded to new all-time highs as a result.</p>\n<p>This triggered a massive breakout over the $99 to $100 level, but that was followed by a somewhat disappointing 18% correction back to this breakout area.</p>\n<p>Like I said though, the bullish clues that new highs were coming were written all over the charts.We never forgot the massive volume&nbsp;that accompanied the stock’s post-earnings rally.</p>\n<p>Save this chart. Bookmark this article. Whatever you need to do to imprint this image in your mind, because this is what “accumulation” volume looks like.</p>\n<p>That’s when institutions pile into a stock, leaving their “footprints” all over the chart in the form of volume. This had the hallmarks of institutional accumulation. While that doesn’t guarantee new highs necessarily, it’s a decent bet that it means, “there’s more where that came from.”</p>\n<p>AMD found support at the prior $99 to $100 breakout zone before&nbsp;giving a powerful weekly-up rotation. That may very well have led to one of the best trades of the year. Further, it helped kick-start an absolutely massive secondary trade in Nvidia, which paid off quite well too.</p>\n<p>Finally, AMD stock&nbsp;gave bulls a nice reset&nbsp;to start off November and the stock responded with a 19.5% burst.Rarely do we get to double dip in a trade like this, catching a bulk of the upside and&nbsp;<i>then</i>&nbsp;catching the downside reversal.</p>\n<p><b>So, What’s the Trade?</b></p>\n<p>From here, we need to give the stock a rest. For traders, that means trimming into strength and/or raising their stop-losses. For investors, it means appreciating the move, but expecting potentially sideways-to-lower price action in the short to immediate term.</p>\n<p>Am I bearish? Absolutely not. But am I cognizant that Nvidia and AMD are up 50% to 60% over the past six weeks and that action can only last so long? Yes.</p>\n<p>Bulls have been quite fortunate in this name. I’m hoping the above chart can serve as an educational tool to readers. It highlights the following:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>A massive upside rally with accumulation volume. Learn to spot these!</li>\n <li>A pullback to the prior breakout zone.</li>\n <li>The weekly-up trigger that launched AMD higher, then the ensuing “reset” trade that sent AMD to new all-time highs.</li>\n <li>Lastly, the reversal trade that let bulls exit the trade with monstrous gains and gave aggressive traders a short-selling opportunity.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Betting on AMD’s Long-Term Future</b></p>\n<p>AMD stock just gave bulls one of the best trades of the year. The best part about all of this is that the company continues to deliver on the fundamentals too.</p>\n<p>It’s a very mixed and mostly downbeat situation for growth stocks. Many of the best growth stocks are well off the highs right now, but not AMD and Nvidia.Both stocks&nbsp;remain superior to picks&nbsp;like&nbsp;<b>Intel</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>INTC</u></b>) too. They are real outliers, outshining growth&nbsp;<i>and</i>value stocks.</p>\n<p>That’s because consensus estimates continue to underestimate what AMD and Nvidia are doing right now. Nvidia just delivered a&nbsp;top- and bottom-line beat&nbsp;and better-than-expected guidance. AMD&nbsp;did the same thing, while delivering 54% revenue growth.</p>\n<p>The more that technology grows, the more that companies need better components. Increased data means increasing data center performance. That equates to more orders for AMD and Nvidia.This new push for the “metaverse” has AMD in demand too. So do computer graphics, gaming, AI and machine learning applications, autonomous driving — you name it. There are countless end markets for GPUs.</p>\n<p>If there’s one fly in the ointment, it’s future growth concerns.</p>\n<p>With one quarter left to go for this fiscal year,analysts expect AMD to grow sales&nbsp;19.5% next year, then 14% in the following year. Some might say the stock has rallied too far given these estimates.Maybe so. And in that case, we may see a multi-quarter consolidation phase, which most long-term investors are fine with.</p>\n<p>But it’s also possible that these estimates are too conservative.</p>\n<p>In late July, 2022 revenue estimates sat at about $17 billion. After earnings in July, they shot up to $18 billion. After the last report in October, these expectations moved above $19 billion. You can see how this theme has been playing out.</p>\n<p>For now, I still have no reason to bet against AMD (or Nvidia) even though it’s clear that the stocks need a break.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD Stock Just Gave Us the Best Trade of the Year. Now What? </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD Stock Just Gave Us the Best Trade of the Year. Now What? \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-23 11:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/11/amd-stock-just-gave-us-the-best-trade-of-the-year-now-what/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD) has been an absolute beast on the long side. Despite that truth, AMD stock can actually be pretty tough to trade at times.\nThe stock tends to go on sharp, robust ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/11/amd-stock-just-gave-us-the-best-trade-of-the-year-now-what/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/11/amd-stock-just-gave-us-the-best-trade-of-the-year-now-what/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109021597","content_text":"Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD) has been an absolute beast on the long side. Despite that truth, AMD stock can actually be pretty tough to trade at times.\nThe stock tends to go on sharp, robust runs and then consolidate for quite a while. However, patient bulls in this stock continue to be rewarded. That’s exactly what I’ve been pounding the table on — patience.\nIf there’s one industry — or one duo — that I have a good pulse on, it’s AMD and Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA). Both of these companies are incredibly well run and while the stocks don’t always reflect their great businesses, the share prices eventually reward shareholders.\nWith AMD, the writing was all over the wall — almost literally.\nTrading AMD Stock\nGoing into earnings in July,I made the case to own AMD stock regardless of the earnings outcome. A few days later, Advanced Micro Devices reported strong earnings and the stock exploded to new all-time highs as a result.\nThis triggered a massive breakout over the $99 to $100 level, but that was followed by a somewhat disappointing 18% correction back to this breakout area.\nLike I said though, the bullish clues that new highs were coming were written all over the charts.We never forgot the massive volume that accompanied the stock’s post-earnings rally.\nSave this chart. Bookmark this article. Whatever you need to do to imprint this image in your mind, because this is what “accumulation” volume looks like.\nThat’s when institutions pile into a stock, leaving their “footprints” all over the chart in the form of volume. This had the hallmarks of institutional accumulation. While that doesn’t guarantee new highs necessarily, it’s a decent bet that it means, “there’s more where that came from.”\nAMD found support at the prior $99 to $100 breakout zone before giving a powerful weekly-up rotation. That may very well have led to one of the best trades of the year. Further, it helped kick-start an absolutely massive secondary trade in Nvidia, which paid off quite well too.\nFinally, AMD stock gave bulls a nice reset to start off November and the stock responded with a 19.5% burst.Rarely do we get to double dip in a trade like this, catching a bulk of the upside and then catching the downside reversal.\nSo, What’s the Trade?\nFrom here, we need to give the stock a rest. For traders, that means trimming into strength and/or raising their stop-losses. For investors, it means appreciating the move, but expecting potentially sideways-to-lower price action in the short to immediate term.\nAm I bearish? Absolutely not. But am I cognizant that Nvidia and AMD are up 50% to 60% over the past six weeks and that action can only last so long? Yes.\nBulls have been quite fortunate in this name. I’m hoping the above chart can serve as an educational tool to readers. It highlights the following:\n\nA massive upside rally with accumulation volume. Learn to spot these!\nA pullback to the prior breakout zone.\nThe weekly-up trigger that launched AMD higher, then the ensuing “reset” trade that sent AMD to new all-time highs.\nLastly, the reversal trade that let bulls exit the trade with monstrous gains and gave aggressive traders a short-selling opportunity.\n\nBetting on AMD’s Long-Term Future\nAMD stock just gave bulls one of the best trades of the year. The best part about all of this is that the company continues to deliver on the fundamentals too.\nIt’s a very mixed and mostly downbeat situation for growth stocks. Many of the best growth stocks are well off the highs right now, but not AMD and Nvidia.Both stocks remain superior to picks like Intel(NASDAQ:INTC) too. They are real outliers, outshining growth andvalue stocks.\nThat’s because consensus estimates continue to underestimate what AMD and Nvidia are doing right now. Nvidia just delivered a top- and bottom-line beat and better-than-expected guidance. AMD did the same thing, while delivering 54% revenue growth.\nThe more that technology grows, the more that companies need better components. Increased data means increasing data center performance. That equates to more orders for AMD and Nvidia.This new push for the “metaverse” has AMD in demand too. So do computer graphics, gaming, AI and machine learning applications, autonomous driving — you name it. There are countless end markets for GPUs.\nIf there’s one fly in the ointment, it’s future growth concerns.\nWith one quarter left to go for this fiscal year,analysts expect AMD to grow sales 19.5% next year, then 14% in the following year. Some might say the stock has rallied too far given these estimates.Maybe so. And in that case, we may see a multi-quarter consolidation phase, which most long-term investors are fine with.\nBut it’s also possible that these estimates are too conservative.\nIn late July, 2022 revenue estimates sat at about $17 billion. After earnings in July, they shot up to $18 billion. After the last report in October, these expectations moved above $19 billion. You can see how this theme has been playing out.\nFor now, I still have no reason to bet against AMD (or Nvidia) even though it’s clear that the stocks need a break.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607238388,"gmtCreate":1639543045055,"gmtModify":1639543045128,"author":{"id":"3582610171578564","authorId":"3582610171578564","name":"Jujulim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c529bfe97e53fc04a89781a34f76b53e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582610171578564","authorIdStr":"3582610171578564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Agree&nbsp;","listText":"Agree&nbsp;","text":"Agree","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607238388","repostId":"1126353314","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":788,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":870637304,"gmtCreate":1636609356180,"gmtModify":1636609356180,"author":{"id":"3582610171578564","authorId":"3582610171578564","name":"Jujulim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c529bfe97e53fc04a89781a34f76b53e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582610171578564","authorIdStr":"3582610171578564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for the article!&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for the article!&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for the article!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870637304","repostId":"1179287524","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179287524","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636532973,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179287524?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-10 16:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't Get Too Comfortable: The Crash May Be Coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179287524","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTech stocks are surging left and right like it's 1999 all over again.\nThe S&P 500's cyclica","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tech stocks are surging left and right like it's 1999 all over again.</li>\n <li>The S&amp;P 500's cyclically adjusted P/E ratio was higher just once before now. Yes, you guessed it, leading up to the 2000 market top.</li>\n <li>While technology is leading the charge, sky-high valuations seem to be widespread amongst multiple sectors.</li>\n <li>A correction in ultra-high multiple names combined with multiple compression in more mature companies could cause a market meltdown soon.</li>\n <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of The Financial Prophet get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>There is extensive froth in the stock market right now, and you don't have to go far or dig deep to see what I mean.</p>\n<p><b>The S&amp;P 500/SPX</b>(SP500)</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2323fa4ed6b27420f5433954b61f797b\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"772\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: StockCharts.com</span></p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 has now gained about 10% since I&nbsp;began calling to an end&nbsp;to the recent pullback at the lows several weeks ago. We've seen remarkable gains in a short time frame, as the SPX has appreciated in 18 out of its last 20 trading sessions. Moreover, the major stock average is up by about 35% over the previous year.</p>\n<p>Technically, the image is significantly overheated right now. The relative strength index (\"RSI\") is nearing 80, the highest level in over a year. The last time the RSI surged to 80 was right before the 10% correction last September. Moreover, the full stochastic is elevated and looks ready to turn downward, implying a possible shift in sentiment.</p>\n<p><b>Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF</b>(QQQ)</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc9224a93768c8e3e6fca68a191e0da\" tg-width=\"721\" tg-height=\"772\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: StockCharts.com</span></p>\n<p>The Nasdaq 100 is even worse. QQQ looks like it topped out at $400, about a 15% gain from recent lows just several weeks ago. The RSI reached the absurdly high 80 levels and is hovering around 77, signaling highly overbought technical conditions. Incredibly, were looking at about a 43% gain over the last year here. Several other technical elements jump out. QQQ's price is now about 7% above its 50-day moving average. Again, the last time we saw anything close to this disconnect was the short-term top going into September 2020. Now we see the full stochastic turning downward, and the black candle at the recent top could mean that high-flying tech stocks are ready to head lower for now.</p>\n<p>Tech Stocks Gone Wild</p>\n<p>There is no shortage of froth in the tech sector today. I don't mean just technically, as fundamentally, some valuations seem absurd right now.</p>\n<p><b>NVIDIA</b>(NVDA)</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fee6e0df3997c0eb900abe5f6c0fc89\" tg-width=\"723\" tg-height=\"772\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: StockCharts.com</span></p>\n<p>Nvidia is a great company, and the stock has performed exceptionally well lately. Possibly too well, as shares have nearly tripled in just about one year, and the company is approaching a forward&nbsp;P/E valuation of 80 now. Also, if you thought an RSI of 80 was high, check out Nvidia pushing up to around 90 right now. In some cases, an 80 P/E ratio could make sense, but Nvidia is not likely to show exceptional earnings growth in future years. On the contrary, projections illustrate the probability of modest EPS growth in upcoming years.</p>\n<p>Therefore, Nvidia with a forward P/E ratio of 80 doesn't make sense in my mind. Additionally, the company is now around a $750 billion valuation with just about $25 billion in revenues set to come in this year. Thus, Nvidia is trading at about 30 times sales right now.</p>\n<p>Thirty times sales, what? Is Nvidia a rapidly growing small-cap tech or biotechnology firm? No, it is not. Nvidia is the top tech stock gone wild lately. It is now a mega-cap tech name, the&nbsp;number 7 weight wise&nbsp;company in the S&amp;P 500, and it looks hugely overvalued at this point.</p>\n<p>I am no Nvidia bear, and I owned shares in prior quarters. Possibly the only reason I don't own Nvidia now is that I have AMD in my portfolio. However, with the stock now 36% above its 50-day MA on essentially no news, things are getting absurd.</p>\n<p>Nvidia could drop by 33% from here, and it would still be relatively expensive at $200 with a forward multiple above $50.</p>\n<p><b>Tesla</b>(TSLA)</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c21876fcb512c6599d06c5e93452165\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"771\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: StockCharts.com</span></p>\n<p>If you thought Nvidia's valuation was an end to the madness, it's not, likely only the beginning. Let's talk about Tesla for a minute. Now, I am a long-term supporter of Tesla, I've owned the company's shares for a long time, and I've written many positive articles about the company. The first article I ever wrote on Seeking Alpha was \"Will Tesla Become A Trillion Dollar Company?\" Now, Tesla became a trillion-dollar company much sooner than I anticipated, and I took profits in the stock at around $1,200 recently.</p>\n<p>I still like Tesla longer-term, but let's face it, we're dealing with a stock that has expanded by about 4.5X over the last year (this is on top of a remarkable runup the previous year). While it might not be fair to judge Tesla's valuation on its 190 forward P/E multiple, I think the stock is richly priced at 22 times sales.</p>\n<p>Technically, the image is mind-boggling, as Tesla recently surged to 50% above its 50-day MA and hit an RSI level well above 90. Tesla is now the fifth-largest S&amp;P 500 component and accounts for about 2.5% of the major average's weight.</p>\n<p>Tesla is not the only stock to go wild in the EV space. We see other players like Lucid (LCID) hitting ludicrous valuations. Lucid now trades at a valuation of&nbsp;around $70 billion, while analysts anticipate the company to bring in about $1.7 billion in revenues next year. We're looking at a forward P/S ratio of about 40 here now. Lucid is another stock that has been up by about 4.5X over the last year, and this is another nameI took profits in recently.</p>\n<p>Tesla could drop to around $800 - 900 support, roughly around a 25-33% pullback from recent highs. The stock would look far more attractive then.</p>\n<p><b>Advanced Micro Devices</b>(AMD)</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/008840326856d3681371b0d0f4f384d4\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"773\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: StockCharts.com</span></p>\n<p>AMD has been one of my favorite stocks recently, and this is one that I'm still long for now. However, the recent runup has been intense. We see an RSI closing in on 90, and this name has nearly doubled over the last year. Yet, at about&nbsp;ten times sales&nbsp;and a forward P/E below 50, it seems relatively cheap to names like Nvidia and others right now. Incredibly, right?</p>\n<p>The list of big tech stocks surging lately can go on and on, but I want to look at the most prominent tech stock in the world that is not surging lately. I think it is pretty telling what Apple's stock is doing right now.</p>\n<p>AMD could use about a 20% discount around here. A forward P/E ratio closer to 40 would make the stock much more attractive at approximately $120 a share. I am using spreads to hedge my position here. Otherwise, I would take profits now.</p>\n<p><b>Apple</b>(AAPL)</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63d6d781b612860c8e34e5d7f53f2988\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"771\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: StockCharts.com - Apple could get its P/E ratio compressed to around 20, implying a price of about $112 for its shares.</span></p>\n<p>So, what is Apple doing lately? Well, not much, as the stock is not skyrocketing to new ATHs as many other technology names are right now. It appears that Apple topped out in early September and has failed to make new highs since. Now, we see a lower high being put in, and Apple looks like it could trade sideways or even head lower for now.</p>\n<p>Now, I spoke about&nbsp;Apple being dead money&nbsp;in my previous article on the company, but there is a good reason for this, in my view. While Apple is not trading at 80 or 50 times forward earnings projections, the company is trading at about27 times forward earning&nbsp;sexpectations. The problem is that while AMD, Nvidia, Tesla, and others are still strong growth stories, Apple likely has minimal growth potential in the next few years.</p>\n<p>Analysts are typically bullish on Apple but predict low single-digit revenue and EPS growth in future years. So, why is Apple trading at such a premium multiple? After all, 27 times forward earnings are not cheap, and even in the current environment, a company should have robust growth prospects for the next several years.</p>\n<p>Apple seems overvalued here, and the company does not deserve such a premium multiple given the probability for stagnant growth in the next several years. Therefore, we could see multiple compression in Apple from now on, and the company's downturn could drag the broader down as well.</p>\n<p>The problem is that Apple accounts for a substantial portion of the S&amp;P 500's weight (6%). Another problem is that Apple is not alone, and this may come as a surprise to many people, but Apple is not even the most significant component of the SPX.</p>\n<p><b>Microsoft</b>(MSFT):</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9788532fa13a3b90f86289660c2cb238\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"771\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: StockCharts.com -Microsoft's stock would look much more attractive with a forward P/E ratio of about 30, suggesting a 20% correction for the stock. Microsoft at $270 looks like a much better buy than it is now.</span></p>\n<p>Talk about being overbought technically. Just look at Microsoft. The RSI here is approaching 80, the stock is up by nearly 60% over the last year, and Microsoft is now the most valuable company globally. Yes, this $2.52 trillion behemoth now accounts for around 6.35% of the SPX's weight. Now, I wish I could say that Microsoft is relatively inexpensive, but that is far from true. On the contrary, Microsoft trades at a whopping37 times forward earnings&nbsp;expectations.</p>\n<p>Granted, Microsoft offers better growth prospects than Apple in future years, but nearly 40 times forward estimates for a stock that could increase earnings by about 10-15% next year is very expensive. We don't typically value huge companies relative to their sales, but Microsoft now trades at a ridiculously high 15 times TTM sales.</p>\n<p>I also want to emphasize the growing influence of big tech in the S&amp;P 500 and other major averages. The top seven weighted holdings in the S&amp;P 500 are seven giant tech companies that account for a whopping27% of the index's weight. It's not difficult to imagine what will happen to the S&amp;P 500 and other major stock indexes when this massive tech bubble unwinds or corrects down the line.</p>\n<p><b>S&amp;P 500 Shiller P/E ratio</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2758adbaf32d04dd18b08589062e6f62\" tg-width=\"1669\" tg-height=\"739\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:multpl.com</span></p>\n<p>I spoke about Microsoft's lofty forward P/E ratio, but it is essentially in line with the Shiller/cyclically adjusted P/E ratio on the entire S&amp;P 500 right now. So, we see that this phenomenon of remarkably high valuations is not only concentrated in tech but is widespread right now. We also see that similar valuations have only been observed once before in history. Yes, around the height of the dot-com bubble, some of us know how that turned out, and the outcome was unfavorable for stocks.</p>\n<p>Another factor I want to go over is that while I use a forward P/E in many instances, no one knows what company earnings will be next year. We saw quite a few&nbsp;misses last quarter, far more disappointing results than was expected. Apple and Amazon (AMZN) are just a couple of examples, but many more big names missed guidance.</p>\n<p><b>Therefore, if we look at TTM P/E multiples:</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Microsoft: 42</li>\n <li>Apple: 27</li>\n <li>Nvidia: 90</li>\n <li>Tesla: 228</li>\n <li>AMD: 63</li>\n <li>Lucid: N/A</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The Bottom Line</p>\n<p>We see many names trading at extremely high valuations right now. Moreover, many prominent companies and major stock market averages are grossly overbought technically. While I focused primarily on the dominant tech companies that account for a massive part of the S&amp;P 500's total weight, the frothy valuations go well beyond technology. The stock market, in general, looks frothy here technically, as well as from a fundamental perspective. Now, we could see a dynamic where the ultra-high multiple names that have skyrocketed lately begin to pull back. Simultaneously, we could see companies like Apple trade sideways or ever move lower due to growth concerns and subsequent multiple contractions. The result could be a \"deflation\" of the current bubble, which could cause a correction or even a mini-crash to occur as we advance into next year.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't Get Too Comfortable: The Crash May Be Coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't Get Too Comfortable: The Crash May Be Coming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-10 16:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4467619-dont-get-too-comfortable-the-crash-is-coming><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTech stocks are surging left and right like it's 1999 all over again.\nThe S&P 500's cyclically adjusted P/E ratio was higher just once before now. Yes, you guessed it, leading up to the 2000 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4467619-dont-get-too-comfortable-the-crash-is-coming\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4467619-dont-get-too-comfortable-the-crash-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1179287524","content_text":"Summary\n\nTech stocks are surging left and right like it's 1999 all over again.\nThe S&P 500's cyclically adjusted P/E ratio was higher just once before now. Yes, you guessed it, leading up to the 2000 market top.\nWhile technology is leading the charge, sky-high valuations seem to be widespread amongst multiple sectors.\nA correction in ultra-high multiple names combined with multiple compression in more mature companies could cause a market meltdown soon.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of The Financial Prophet get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\n\nThere is extensive froth in the stock market right now, and you don't have to go far or dig deep to see what I mean.\nThe S&P 500/SPX(SP500)\nSource: StockCharts.com\nThe S&P 500 has now gained about 10% since I began calling to an end to the recent pullback at the lows several weeks ago. We've seen remarkable gains in a short time frame, as the SPX has appreciated in 18 out of its last 20 trading sessions. Moreover, the major stock average is up by about 35% over the previous year.\nTechnically, the image is significantly overheated right now. The relative strength index (\"RSI\") is nearing 80, the highest level in over a year. The last time the RSI surged to 80 was right before the 10% correction last September. Moreover, the full stochastic is elevated and looks ready to turn downward, implying a possible shift in sentiment.\nInvesco Nasdaq 100 ETF(QQQ)\nSource: StockCharts.com\nThe Nasdaq 100 is even worse. QQQ looks like it topped out at $400, about a 15% gain from recent lows just several weeks ago. The RSI reached the absurdly high 80 levels and is hovering around 77, signaling highly overbought technical conditions. Incredibly, were looking at about a 43% gain over the last year here. Several other technical elements jump out. QQQ's price is now about 7% above its 50-day moving average. Again, the last time we saw anything close to this disconnect was the short-term top going into September 2020. Now we see the full stochastic turning downward, and the black candle at the recent top could mean that high-flying tech stocks are ready to head lower for now.\nTech Stocks Gone Wild\nThere is no shortage of froth in the tech sector today. I don't mean just technically, as fundamentally, some valuations seem absurd right now.\nNVIDIA(NVDA)\nSource: StockCharts.com\nNvidia is a great company, and the stock has performed exceptionally well lately. Possibly too well, as shares have nearly tripled in just about one year, and the company is approaching a forward P/E valuation of 80 now. Also, if you thought an RSI of 80 was high, check out Nvidia pushing up to around 90 right now. In some cases, an 80 P/E ratio could make sense, but Nvidia is not likely to show exceptional earnings growth in future years. On the contrary, projections illustrate the probability of modest EPS growth in upcoming years.\nTherefore, Nvidia with a forward P/E ratio of 80 doesn't make sense in my mind. Additionally, the company is now around a $750 billion valuation with just about $25 billion in revenues set to come in this year. Thus, Nvidia is trading at about 30 times sales right now.\nThirty times sales, what? Is Nvidia a rapidly growing small-cap tech or biotechnology firm? No, it is not. Nvidia is the top tech stock gone wild lately. It is now a mega-cap tech name, the number 7 weight wise company in the S&P 500, and it looks hugely overvalued at this point.\nI am no Nvidia bear, and I owned shares in prior quarters. Possibly the only reason I don't own Nvidia now is that I have AMD in my portfolio. However, with the stock now 36% above its 50-day MA on essentially no news, things are getting absurd.\nNvidia could drop by 33% from here, and it would still be relatively expensive at $200 with a forward multiple above $50.\nTesla(TSLA)\nSource: StockCharts.com\nIf you thought Nvidia's valuation was an end to the madness, it's not, likely only the beginning. Let's talk about Tesla for a minute. Now, I am a long-term supporter of Tesla, I've owned the company's shares for a long time, and I've written many positive articles about the company. The first article I ever wrote on Seeking Alpha was \"Will Tesla Become A Trillion Dollar Company?\" Now, Tesla became a trillion-dollar company much sooner than I anticipated, and I took profits in the stock at around $1,200 recently.\nI still like Tesla longer-term, but let's face it, we're dealing with a stock that has expanded by about 4.5X over the last year (this is on top of a remarkable runup the previous year). While it might not be fair to judge Tesla's valuation on its 190 forward P/E multiple, I think the stock is richly priced at 22 times sales.\nTechnically, the image is mind-boggling, as Tesla recently surged to 50% above its 50-day MA and hit an RSI level well above 90. Tesla is now the fifth-largest S&P 500 component and accounts for about 2.5% of the major average's weight.\nTesla is not the only stock to go wild in the EV space. We see other players like Lucid (LCID) hitting ludicrous valuations. Lucid now trades at a valuation of around $70 billion, while analysts anticipate the company to bring in about $1.7 billion in revenues next year. We're looking at a forward P/S ratio of about 40 here now. Lucid is another stock that has been up by about 4.5X over the last year, and this is another nameI took profits in recently.\nTesla could drop to around $800 - 900 support, roughly around a 25-33% pullback from recent highs. The stock would look far more attractive then.\nAdvanced Micro Devices(AMD)\nSource: StockCharts.com\nAMD has been one of my favorite stocks recently, and this is one that I'm still long for now. However, the recent runup has been intense. We see an RSI closing in on 90, and this name has nearly doubled over the last year. Yet, at about ten times sales and a forward P/E below 50, it seems relatively cheap to names like Nvidia and others right now. Incredibly, right?\nThe list of big tech stocks surging lately can go on and on, but I want to look at the most prominent tech stock in the world that is not surging lately. I think it is pretty telling what Apple's stock is doing right now.\nAMD could use about a 20% discount around here. A forward P/E ratio closer to 40 would make the stock much more attractive at approximately $120 a share. I am using spreads to hedge my position here. Otherwise, I would take profits now.\nApple(AAPL)\nSource: StockCharts.com - Apple could get its P/E ratio compressed to around 20, implying a price of about $112 for its shares.\nSo, what is Apple doing lately? Well, not much, as the stock is not skyrocketing to new ATHs as many other technology names are right now. It appears that Apple topped out in early September and has failed to make new highs since. Now, we see a lower high being put in, and Apple looks like it could trade sideways or even head lower for now.\nNow, I spoke about Apple being dead money in my previous article on the company, but there is a good reason for this, in my view. While Apple is not trading at 80 or 50 times forward earnings projections, the company is trading at about27 times forward earning sexpectations. The problem is that while AMD, Nvidia, Tesla, and others are still strong growth stories, Apple likely has minimal growth potential in the next few years.\nAnalysts are typically bullish on Apple but predict low single-digit revenue and EPS growth in future years. So, why is Apple trading at such a premium multiple? After all, 27 times forward earnings are not cheap, and even in the current environment, a company should have robust growth prospects for the next several years.\nApple seems overvalued here, and the company does not deserve such a premium multiple given the probability for stagnant growth in the next several years. Therefore, we could see multiple compression in Apple from now on, and the company's downturn could drag the broader down as well.\nThe problem is that Apple accounts for a substantial portion of the S&P 500's weight (6%). Another problem is that Apple is not alone, and this may come as a surprise to many people, but Apple is not even the most significant component of the SPX.\nMicrosoft(MSFT):\nSource: StockCharts.com -Microsoft's stock would look much more attractive with a forward P/E ratio of about 30, suggesting a 20% correction for the stock. Microsoft at $270 looks like a much better buy than it is now.\nTalk about being overbought technically. Just look at Microsoft. The RSI here is approaching 80, the stock is up by nearly 60% over the last year, and Microsoft is now the most valuable company globally. Yes, this $2.52 trillion behemoth now accounts for around 6.35% of the SPX's weight. Now, I wish I could say that Microsoft is relatively inexpensive, but that is far from true. On the contrary, Microsoft trades at a whopping37 times forward earnings expectations.\nGranted, Microsoft offers better growth prospects than Apple in future years, but nearly 40 times forward estimates for a stock that could increase earnings by about 10-15% next year is very expensive. We don't typically value huge companies relative to their sales, but Microsoft now trades at a ridiculously high 15 times TTM sales.\nI also want to emphasize the growing influence of big tech in the S&P 500 and other major averages. The top seven weighted holdings in the S&P 500 are seven giant tech companies that account for a whopping27% of the index's weight. It's not difficult to imagine what will happen to the S&P 500 and other major stock indexes when this massive tech bubble unwinds or corrects down the line.\nS&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio\nSource:multpl.com\nI spoke about Microsoft's lofty forward P/E ratio, but it is essentially in line with the Shiller/cyclically adjusted P/E ratio on the entire S&P 500 right now. So, we see that this phenomenon of remarkably high valuations is not only concentrated in tech but is widespread right now. We also see that similar valuations have only been observed once before in history. Yes, around the height of the dot-com bubble, some of us know how that turned out, and the outcome was unfavorable for stocks.\nAnother factor I want to go over is that while I use a forward P/E in many instances, no one knows what company earnings will be next year. We saw quite a few misses last quarter, far more disappointing results than was expected. Apple and Amazon (AMZN) are just a couple of examples, but many more big names missed guidance.\nTherefore, if we look at TTM P/E multiples:\n\nMicrosoft: 42\nApple: 27\nNvidia: 90\nTesla: 228\nAMD: 63\nLucid: N/A\n\nThe Bottom Line\nWe see many names trading at extremely high valuations right now. Moreover, many prominent companies and major stock market averages are grossly overbought technically. While I focused primarily on the dominant tech companies that account for a massive part of the S&P 500's total weight, the frothy valuations go well beyond technology. The stock market, in general, looks frothy here technically, as well as from a fundamental perspective. Now, we could see a dynamic where the ultra-high multiple names that have skyrocketed lately begin to pull back. Simultaneously, we could see companies like Apple trade sideways or ever move lower due to growth concerns and subsequent multiple contractions. The result could be a \"deflation\" of the current bubble, which could cause a correction or even a mini-crash to occur as we advance into next year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":967,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608434870,"gmtCreate":1638774617641,"gmtModify":1638774617641,"author":{"id":"3582610171578564","authorId":"3582610171578564","name":"Jujulim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c529bfe97e53fc04a89781a34f76b53e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582610171578564","authorIdStr":"3582610171578564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok!&nbsp;","listText":"Ok!&nbsp;","text":"Ok!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608434870","repostId":"1127164143","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609118148,"gmtCreate":1638250989552,"gmtModify":1638250989552,"author":{"id":"3582610171578564","authorId":"3582610171578564","name":"Jujulim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c529bfe97e53fc04a89781a34f76b53e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582610171578564","authorIdStr":"3582610171578564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please&nbsp;continue to grow for everyone who bought them!&nbsp;","listText":"Please&nbsp;continue to grow for everyone who bought them!&nbsp;","text":"Please continue to grow for everyone who bought them!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609118148","repostId":"2186262293","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2186262293","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1638155027,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2186262293?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-29 11:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Better Semiconductor Stock: Nvidia or AMD","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2186262293","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Which high-growth chipmaker is the better all-around investment?","content":"<p><b>Key Points</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Nvidia is profiting from the robust demand for GPUs in the gaming and data center markets.</li>\n <li>AMD is selling more CPUs for the PC and server markets as Intel tries to resolve its R&amp;D and manufacturing issues.</li>\n <li>One of these chipmakers has more catalysts than the other.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Last December, I compared two of the market's hottest semiconductor stocks: <b>Nvidia</b> (NASDAQ:NVDA) and <b>Advanced Micro Devices</b> (NASDAQ:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>).</p>\n<p>At the time, I said AMD was a better buy than Nvidia because I believed it was better insulated from macro headwinds, it would benefit from the arrivals of the new PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series consoles, and it would continue to grow its market share against <b>Intel </b>(NASDAQ:INTC).</p>\n<p>However, Nvidia's stock price has rallied nearly 150% since I wrote that article, while AMD's stock has only advanced about 70%. Let's take a fresh look at both chipmakers to see if I made the wrong call last year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c23cc7b86d5f4cdb564f53ac3e85040\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1125\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p>\n<h2>What I got wrong about Nvidia</h2>\n<p>I had expected Nvidia's gaming and data center GPU businesses, which both experienced strong growth during the pandemic, to lose their momentum as the pandemic passed, people played fewer games, and data centers faced less pressure to upgrade their AI-processing servers. But that slowdown never happened.</p>\n<p>Nvidia's revenue rose 53% to $16.7 billion in fiscal 2021, which ended back in January. That growth was led by its gaming and data center businesses, which easily offset the slower growth of its auto, professional visualization, and OEM businesses. Its adjusted gross margin expanded 310 basis points to 65.6%, while its adjusted net income surged 75% to $6.3 billion.</p>\n<p>In the first nine months of fiscal 2022, Nvidia's revenue grew 65% year over year to $19.3 billion. Its gaming and data center businesses continued to grow, while its auto, professional visualization, and OEM segments all recovered as the pandemic-related headwinds waned. Its data center business also benefited from its takeover of the data center networking equipment maker Mellanox last April. Its adjusted gross margin rose 90 basis points year over year to 66.6%, and its adjusted net income jumped 83% to $7.9 billion.</p>\n<p>Analysts expect Nvidia's revenue and earnings to grow 60% and 74%, respectively, for the full year. Those estimates notably don't factor in the potential success or failure of its $40 billion takeover bid for Arm Holdings from <b>Softbank</b>, which could be stuck in regulatory limbo&nbsp;for the foreseeable future.</p>\n<h2>What I got wrong about AMD</h2>\n<p>AMD performed very well&nbsp;over the past year, but it didn't actually gain much ground against Intel in the CPU market. Between the fourth quarters of 2020 and 2021, Intel's market share rose from 61.5% to 62.1%, according to PassMark, while AMD's share dipped from 38.5% to 37.8%.</p>\n<p>AMD's share of the discrete GPU market also dipped from 20% to 17% between the third quarters of 2020 and 2021, according to JPR. Nvidia's share rose from 80% to 83%. AMD benefited from robust sales of <b>Sony</b>&nbsp;and <b>Microsoft</b>'s new gaming consoles this year, but the ongoing supply chain shortages are capping those gains.</p>\n<p>Yet AMD continues to grow. Last year, its revenue rose 45% to $9.76 billion, Its adjusted gross margin expanded two percentage points to 45%, and its adjusted net income more than doubled to $1.58 billion.</p>\n<p>In the first nine months of 2021, its revenue grew 78% year-over-year to $11.6 billion, its adjusted gross margin rose from 44% to 47%, and its adjusted net income soared 146% to $2.31 billion. It attributed most of that growth to robust sales of its Ryzen CPUs for PCs and Epyc CPUs for servers.</p>\n<p>Analysts expect AMD's revenue and adjusted earnings to increase 65% and 104%, respectively, for the full year. Those estimates don't include its planned purchase of <b>Xilinx</b> (NASDAQ:XLNX), which will complement its Eypc data center business with programmable chips.</p>\n<h2>The valuations and upcoming challenges</h2>\n<p>Nvidia trades at 62 times forward earnings, while AMD has a lower forward price-to-earnings ratio of 46. Analysts expect both chipmakers to generate slower growth next year, but Nvidia might have more catalysts than AMD.</p>\n<p>Nvidia's core GPU business remains far ahead of AMD's, and the secular strength of the gaming and data center markets -- along with the recovery of its smaller end markets -- should support its long-term growth.</p>\n<p>AMD is still a thorn in Intel's side, and it remains ahead of its larger CPU rival in the \"process race\" to create smaller and more advanced chips because it outsources its production to <b>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</b> (NYSE:TSM). However, that balance could eventually shift as Intel doubles down on its own first-party manufacturing efforts and tries to catch up to TSMC.</p>\n<p>That looming threat, along with intense competition from Nvidia in the GPU market, could be preventing investors from paying a higher premium for AMD's stock, even though it's growing at a comparable rate as Nvidia.</p>\n<p>AMD's planned takeover of Xilinx, which mirrors Intel's takeover of Altera six years ago, is also arguably more important to its long-term growth plans than Nvidia's planned purchase of Arm -- which would merely complement its existing business with new CPU design and licensing capabilities.</p>\n<h2>The winner: Nvidia</h2>\n<p>Both chipmakers are still great long-term growth plays. However, Nvidia clearly looks like the stronger investment than AMD right now -- even though it trades at significantly higher valuations.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Better Semiconductor Stock: Nvidia or AMD</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBetter Semiconductor Stock: Nvidia or AMD\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-29 11:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/28/better-semiconductor-stock-nvidia-or-amd/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Key Points\n\nNvidia is profiting from the robust demand for GPUs in the gaming and data center markets.\nAMD is selling more CPUs for the PC and server markets as Intel tries to resolve its R&D and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/28/better-semiconductor-stock-nvidia-or-amd/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4543":"AI","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","AMD":"美国超微公司","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4567":"ESG概念","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4529":"IDC概念"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/28/better-semiconductor-stock-nvidia-or-amd/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2186262293","content_text":"Key Points\n\nNvidia is profiting from the robust demand for GPUs in the gaming and data center markets.\nAMD is selling more CPUs for the PC and server markets as Intel tries to resolve its R&D and manufacturing issues.\nOne of these chipmakers has more catalysts than the other.\n\nLast December, I compared two of the market's hottest semiconductor stocks: Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD).\nAt the time, I said AMD was a better buy than Nvidia because I believed it was better insulated from macro headwinds, it would benefit from the arrivals of the new PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series consoles, and it would continue to grow its market share against Intel (NASDAQ:INTC).\nHowever, Nvidia's stock price has rallied nearly 150% since I wrote that article, while AMD's stock has only advanced about 70%. Let's take a fresh look at both chipmakers to see if I made the wrong call last year.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nWhat I got wrong about Nvidia\nI had expected Nvidia's gaming and data center GPU businesses, which both experienced strong growth during the pandemic, to lose their momentum as the pandemic passed, people played fewer games, and data centers faced less pressure to upgrade their AI-processing servers. But that slowdown never happened.\nNvidia's revenue rose 53% to $16.7 billion in fiscal 2021, which ended back in January. That growth was led by its gaming and data center businesses, which easily offset the slower growth of its auto, professional visualization, and OEM businesses. Its adjusted gross margin expanded 310 basis points to 65.6%, while its adjusted net income surged 75% to $6.3 billion.\nIn the first nine months of fiscal 2022, Nvidia's revenue grew 65% year over year to $19.3 billion. Its gaming and data center businesses continued to grow, while its auto, professional visualization, and OEM segments all recovered as the pandemic-related headwinds waned. Its data center business also benefited from its takeover of the data center networking equipment maker Mellanox last April. Its adjusted gross margin rose 90 basis points year over year to 66.6%, and its adjusted net income jumped 83% to $7.9 billion.\nAnalysts expect Nvidia's revenue and earnings to grow 60% and 74%, respectively, for the full year. Those estimates notably don't factor in the potential success or failure of its $40 billion takeover bid for Arm Holdings from Softbank, which could be stuck in regulatory limbo for the foreseeable future.\nWhat I got wrong about AMD\nAMD performed very well over the past year, but it didn't actually gain much ground against Intel in the CPU market. Between the fourth quarters of 2020 and 2021, Intel's market share rose from 61.5% to 62.1%, according to PassMark, while AMD's share dipped from 38.5% to 37.8%.\nAMD's share of the discrete GPU market also dipped from 20% to 17% between the third quarters of 2020 and 2021, according to JPR. Nvidia's share rose from 80% to 83%. AMD benefited from robust sales of Sony and Microsoft's new gaming consoles this year, but the ongoing supply chain shortages are capping those gains.\nYet AMD continues to grow. Last year, its revenue rose 45% to $9.76 billion, Its adjusted gross margin expanded two percentage points to 45%, and its adjusted net income more than doubled to $1.58 billion.\nIn the first nine months of 2021, its revenue grew 78% year-over-year to $11.6 billion, its adjusted gross margin rose from 44% to 47%, and its adjusted net income soared 146% to $2.31 billion. It attributed most of that growth to robust sales of its Ryzen CPUs for PCs and Epyc CPUs for servers.\nAnalysts expect AMD's revenue and adjusted earnings to increase 65% and 104%, respectively, for the full year. Those estimates don't include its planned purchase of Xilinx (NASDAQ:XLNX), which will complement its Eypc data center business with programmable chips.\nThe valuations and upcoming challenges\nNvidia trades at 62 times forward earnings, while AMD has a lower forward price-to-earnings ratio of 46. Analysts expect both chipmakers to generate slower growth next year, but Nvidia might have more catalysts than AMD.\nNvidia's core GPU business remains far ahead of AMD's, and the secular strength of the gaming and data center markets -- along with the recovery of its smaller end markets -- should support its long-term growth.\nAMD is still a thorn in Intel's side, and it remains ahead of its larger CPU rival in the \"process race\" to create smaller and more advanced chips because it outsources its production to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM). However, that balance could eventually shift as Intel doubles down on its own first-party manufacturing efforts and tries to catch up to TSMC.\nThat looming threat, along with intense competition from Nvidia in the GPU market, could be preventing investors from paying a higher premium for AMD's stock, even though it's growing at a comparable rate as Nvidia.\nAMD's planned takeover of Xilinx, which mirrors Intel's takeover of Altera six years ago, is also arguably more important to its long-term growth plans than Nvidia's planned purchase of Arm -- which would merely complement its existing business with new CPU design and licensing capabilities.\nThe winner: Nvidia\nBoth chipmakers are still great long-term growth plays. However, Nvidia clearly looks like the stronger investment than AMD right now -- even though it trades at significantly higher valuations.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":878580733,"gmtCreate":1637206449993,"gmtModify":1637206449993,"author":{"id":"3582610171578564","authorId":"3582610171578564","name":"Jujulim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c529bfe97e53fc04a89781a34f76b53e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582610171578564","authorIdStr":"3582610171578564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Really???&nbsp;","listText":"Really???&nbsp;","text":"Really???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878580733","repostId":"1189316240","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":158911105,"gmtCreate":1625121190307,"gmtModify":1633944556518,"author":{"id":"3582610171578564","authorId":"3582610171578564","name":"Jujulim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c529bfe97e53fc04a89781a34f76b53e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582610171578564","authorIdStr":"3582610171578564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good! Keep going!&nbsp;","listText":"Good! Keep going!&nbsp;","text":"Good! Keep going!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158911105","repostId":"2148511843","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":159,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124914435,"gmtCreate":1624718680427,"gmtModify":1633949319620,"author":{"id":"3582610171578564","authorId":"3582610171578564","name":"Jujulim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c529bfe97e53fc04a89781a34f76b53e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582610171578564","authorIdStr":"3582610171578564"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"At low","listText":"At low","text":"At low","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb40ce7d3121c35deb1941855d66c104","width":"750","height":"2053"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124914435","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":76,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}