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2021-12-19

多谢分享

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11:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"创纪录的资金流入开始“退潮” ，投资者正在“逃离”市场","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109268210","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在截至12月15日的一周内，全球债券基金出现巨额资金流出。","content":"<p>作者：韩旭阳</p>\n<p>在截至12月15日的一周内，全球债券基金出现巨额资金流出，是自2020年4月上旬以来的规模最大的一次。</p>\n<p>部分是由于通胀飙升的压力，使得全球主要央行在本周的主要政策会议上改变了原来的货币政策方向，而投资者纷纷对此做出了反应。</p>\n<p>债券基金、股票基金均出现大规模资金流出</p>\n<p>数据提供商Refinitiv Lipper的数据显示，在这一周，投资者共计抛售了69.1亿美元的全球债券基金，这是自2020年4月8日以来最大的周净抛售规模。</p>\n<p>根据美国银行的Michael Hartnett编制的最新EPFR数据，上周也出现了自2020年7月以来规模最大的被视为“安全区”的美国国债的资金流入，达到36亿美元；同时，IG债券也出现了自今年3月以来的最大规模资金流出，达到64亿美元；HY&amp;EM债券出现了自去年4月以来的最大规模的资金流出，达到29亿美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/972878dfd3eaffb1b73c951adcd4659e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据还显示，全球政府债券基金在连续七周流入后净流出8.09亿美元，但通胀保护基金净流入13.2亿美元，较前一周增加39%。</p>\n<p><b>股票基金也出现了类似的趋势。</b></p>\n<p>尽管在前几周，受万亿刺激措施的推动，大量资金进入了股票基金，规模达到了前所未有的高峰。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95cd302e00ba93302ae605efc519da90\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>但随着股市进入长期动荡时期，并伴随着剧烈的下跌，美联储再次启动了加息周期，使得这种大规模的资金流入趋势终于开始“退潮”。</b></p>\n<p>数据显示，在上一周，全球股票基金流出规模为131.4亿美元，而前一周的净流入量为34.3亿美元。</p>\n<p>最重要的是，上周只做多的发达市场股票基金也出现了自2020年4月以来最大的资金流出，流出规模达到260亿美元，这是一个明显的信号，表明市场情绪可能已经达到顶峰。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/117ccb3f28de1456b8cea95cf60d92b7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>在细分板块中，科技资金流入19.1亿美元，而前一周则为净流出；自今年2月以来，科技资金曾达到过44亿美元规模的净流入。自去年12月以来，消费股的最大净流入量为25亿美元。</p>\n<p>医疗保健和材料基金流入超过了4亿美元，但公用事业基金净流出达5.88亿美元。</p>\n<p>高盛对流动数据的进一步细分发现，由于对美国专用产品的需求激增，在截至12月15日的一周内，所有全球基金的净流动出现逆转趋势。</p>\n<p>不包括美国专用产品的全球股票流入量为负值，新兴市场基准产品的抛售速度加快，而西欧股票的流出正在放缓。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0773d0c7a313bc222c7df83b7e233b5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>路透对24070只新兴市场基金的分析显示，新兴市场的债券基金流出44.9亿美元，为2020年3月25日以来最大，而股票基金净流出达到15.1亿美元。</p>\n<p>货币市场基金也出现了净流出：在连续八周净流入后，全球货币市场基金在这一周净流出达到了204.6亿美元；但它在全球股市总市值中所占比例仍相对较小。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e89144ff44308afe14c6d7dacfb73a54\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd0b5d9eb8e83b71ccc21a13623d7322\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>在商品基金中，贵金属基金净流出4.02亿美元，为连续第二周净流出。能源基金也出现了9600万美元的净流出，此前出现连续两周的净流入。</p>\n<p>货币政策转向</p>\n<p>这是在通胀压力下，市场对各国央行进行货币政策转向作出的反应。</p>\n<p>最新数据显示，美国11月CPI同比上涨6.8%，为1982年6月以来的最高水平。</p>\n<p>美东时间12月15日周三，美联储在政策会议后宣布，将加快Taper的速度，每月减少购买200亿美元的美国国债和100亿美元的机构住房抵押贷款支持证券（MBS），并暗示明年将加息三次。</p>\n<p>与此同时，欧洲央行也削减了购债步伐，宣布下个季度放缓紧急抗疫购债计划（PEPP），在明年3月底彻底结束PEPP下的净债券购买。</p>\n<p>而在通胀压力下，英国央行选择升息，将基准利率上调15个基点至0.25%，同时维持购债规模不变。</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>创纪录的资金流入开始“退潮” ，投资者正在“逃离”市场</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n创纪录的资金流入开始“退潮” ，投资者正在“逃离”市场\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-19 11:32 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3647634><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：韩旭阳\n在截至12月15日的一周内，全球债券基金出现巨额资金流出，是自2020年4月上旬以来的规模最大的一次。\n部分是由于通胀飙升的压力，使得全球主要央行在本周的主要政策会议上改变了原来的货币政策方向，而投资者纷纷对此做出了反应。\n债券基金、股票基金均出现大规模资金流出\n数据提供商Refinitiv Lipper的数据显示，在这一周，投资者共计抛售了69.1亿美元的全球债券基金，这是自...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3647634\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7f61931a0d39e3cccfd6e5e3b0ef5e","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3647634","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1109268210","content_text":"作者：韩旭阳\n在截至12月15日的一周内，全球债券基金出现巨额资金流出，是自2020年4月上旬以来的规模最大的一次。\n部分是由于通胀飙升的压力，使得全球主要央行在本周的主要政策会议上改变了原来的货币政策方向，而投资者纷纷对此做出了反应。\n债券基金、股票基金均出现大规模资金流出\n数据提供商Refinitiv Lipper的数据显示，在这一周，投资者共计抛售了69.1亿美元的全球债券基金，这是自2020年4月8日以来最大的周净抛售规模。\n根据美国银行的Michael Hartnett编制的最新EPFR数据，上周也出现了自2020年7月以来规模最大的被视为“安全区”的美国国债的资金流入，达到36亿美元；同时，IG债券也出现了自今年3月以来的最大规模资金流出，达到64亿美元；HY&EM债券出现了自去年4月以来的最大规模的资金流出，达到29亿美元。\n\n数据还显示，全球政府债券基金在连续七周流入后净流出8.09亿美元，但通胀保护基金净流入13.2亿美元，较前一周增加39%。\n股票基金也出现了类似的趋势。\n尽管在前几周，受万亿刺激措施的推动，大量资金进入了股票基金，规模达到了前所未有的高峰。\n\n但随着股市进入长期动荡时期，并伴随着剧烈的下跌，美联储再次启动了加息周期，使得这种大规模的资金流入趋势终于开始“退潮”。\n数据显示，在上一周，全球股票基金流出规模为131.4亿美元，而前一周的净流入量为34.3亿美元。\n最重要的是，上周只做多的发达市场股票基金也出现了自2020年4月以来最大的资金流出，流出规模达到260亿美元，这是一个明显的信号，表明市场情绪可能已经达到顶峰。\n\n在细分板块中，科技资金流入19.1亿美元，而前一周则为净流出；自今年2月以来，科技资金曾达到过44亿美元规模的净流入。自去年12月以来，消费股的最大净流入量为25亿美元。\n医疗保健和材料基金流入超过了4亿美元，但公用事业基金净流出达5.88亿美元。\n高盛对流动数据的进一步细分发现，由于对美国专用产品的需求激增，在截至12月15日的一周内，所有全球基金的净流动出现逆转趋势。\n不包括美国专用产品的全球股票流入量为负值，新兴市场基准产品的抛售速度加快，而西欧股票的流出正在放缓。\n\n路透对24070只新兴市场基金的分析显示，新兴市场的债券基金流出44.9亿美元，为2020年3月25日以来最大，而股票基金净流出达到15.1亿美元。\n货币市场基金也出现了净流出：在连续八周净流入后，全球货币市场基金在这一周净流出达到了204.6亿美元；但它在全球股市总市值中所占比例仍相对较小。\n\n\n在商品基金中，贵金属基金净流出4.02亿美元，为连续第二周净流出。能源基金也出现了9600万美元的净流出，此前出现连续两周的净流入。\n货币政策转向\n这是在通胀压力下，市场对各国央行进行货币政策转向作出的反应。\n最新数据显示，美国11月CPI同比上涨6.8%，为1982年6月以来的最高水平。\n美东时间12月15日周三，美联储在政策会议后宣布，将加快Taper的速度，每月减少购买200亿美元的美国国债和100亿美元的机构住房抵押贷款支持证券（MBS），并暗示明年将加息三次。\n与此同时，欧洲央行也削减了购债步伐，宣布下个季度放缓紧急抗疫购债计划（PEPP），在明年3月底彻底结束PEPP下的净债券购买。\n而在通胀压力下，英国央行选择升息，将基准利率上调15个基点至0.25%，同时维持购债规模不变。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":769,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699867283,"gmtCreate":1639782916514,"gmtModify":1639782916935,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699867283","repostId":"2192597888","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2192597888","pubTimestamp":1639746069,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2192597888?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-17 21:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"德银：美联储或让美国在2024年陷入经济衰退","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2192597888","media":"金十数据","summary":"美国银行绘制的一张图表显示，美联储的每一个紧缩周期都以危机告终。几乎每一次美联储撤走“潘趣酒碗”（这里指结束宽松的货币政策），市场都会崩溃，并且当美联储意识到紧缩的货币政策是个错误的时候，经济往往已经","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>绘制的一张图表显示，美联储的每一个紧缩周期都以危机告终。几乎每一次美联储撤走“潘趣酒碗”（这里指结束宽松的货币政策），市场都会崩溃，并且当美联储意识到紧缩的货币政策是个错误的时候，经济往往已经陷入了衰退。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bb37445a1cdae8f50952b817bd784c3\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>那么问题来了，本轮紧缩周期何时开始呢？<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>的吉姆•里德（Jim Reid）表示，<b>美联储的政策决定将影响到下一次经济衰退开始的时间。</b></p>\n<p>在11月份的利率决议上，美联储宣布加快缩减购债规模，实际上也在为本周期中的第一次加息铺平道路。目前市场上普遍预测美联储将在3月加息，但里德认为加息时间在6月，并将基于这一假设预测本轮经济衰退的起止时间。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">德意志银行</a>的数据显示，在美联储自1955年以来的13个独立加息周期中，从宣布加息当天开始计算，经济衰退平均会在36-42个月后出现，其中中位数和平均水平为首次加息后的37个月和42个月。</p>\n<p>以史为鉴，本轮经济衰退出现的时间可能在2025年7月或12月。在此前的经济衰退周期中，经济衰退最快在加息过后的11个月出现，也就是说本轮经济衰退最早有可能在2023年5月发生。</p>\n<p>从美债收益率曲线来看，首次加息过后，美国2年期和10年期国债收益率曲线几乎都会趋平，在加息后的一年内平均利差为80个基点。假设从现在到明年6月收益率曲线都是平坦的，鉴于美国2年期和10年期国债收益率利差目前已低于80个基点，2022年6月的首次加息可能会使收益率曲线在2023年6月出现倒挂。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be6ce8bdb3b5842534a919795f00719b\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>根据上图，平均来说，经济衰退会在收益率曲线倒挂后的第18个月发生，由此可以推算出本轮经济将在2024年12月左右开始衰退。</p>\n<p>在新冠疫情爆发之前，经济衰退最快在曲线倒挂后的9个月发生，以此最快速度推测，经济衰退将在2023年3月发生。</p>\n<p>尽管上述猜测只是根据过往历史进行的，但也提供了一个大致的框架。</p>\n<p>众所周知，每一次经济衰退周期都有不同之处。许多人认为，在此次周期中，美联储已经落后于市场，导致如今我们可能将面临一个更激进的紧缩周期。</p>\n<p>20世纪60年代中期，美联储就犯过同样的错误。当时美联储维持过于宽松的货币政策，将经济衰退推迟到了1969年末，但最终通胀在1970年失控，随后的能源冲击更是火上浇油。</p>\n<p>就连美联储超级鸽派前明尼阿波利斯联储主席——赫拉科塔都在反对这种放纵通胀而维持经济增长的政策。</p>\n<p>历史表明，在其他条件相同的情况下，美国在2024年或2025年之间出现经济衰退是一种比较现实的假设，衰退不可避免，但也有望更早结束。</p>\n<p>德意志央行的最新市场调查显示，64%的受访者认为经济衰退将在2024年发生；31%的受访者认为是2024年。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1aecdec87eec04e9b590c674ed64271a\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>市场似乎也普遍认同上述调查中大多数人的观点。由下图可见，交易员们正在消化4y/1y-2y/1y远期掉期曲线倒挂的预期，<b>这意味着2025年的美联储联邦基金利率将低于2023年，表明在此期间的某个时间点，美联储将开启下一个宽松周期。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12f0667f911532e2a56e514a89752e3b\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>德银：美联储或让美国在2024年陷入经济衰退</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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class=\"title\">\n德银：美联储或让美国在2024年陷入经济衰退\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-17 21:01 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=87546&type=news><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国银行绘制的一张图表显示，美联储的每一个紧缩周期都以危机告终。几乎每一次美联储撤走“潘趣酒碗”（这里指结束宽松的货币政策），市场都会崩溃，并且当美联储意识到紧缩的货币政策是个错误的时候，经济往往已经陷入了衰退。\n\n那么问题来了，本轮紧缩周期何时开始呢？德意志银行的吉姆•里德（Jim Reid）表示，美联储的政策决定将影响到下一次经济衰退开始的时间。\n在11月份的利率决议上，美联储宣布加快缩减购债...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=87546&type=news\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=87546&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2192597888","content_text":"美国银行绘制的一张图表显示，美联储的每一个紧缩周期都以危机告终。几乎每一次美联储撤走“潘趣酒碗”（这里指结束宽松的货币政策），市场都会崩溃，并且当美联储意识到紧缩的货币政策是个错误的时候，经济往往已经陷入了衰退。\n\n那么问题来了，本轮紧缩周期何时开始呢？德意志银行的吉姆•里德（Jim Reid）表示，美联储的政策决定将影响到下一次经济衰退开始的时间。\n在11月份的利率决议上，美联储宣布加快缩减购债规模，实际上也在为本周期中的第一次加息铺平道路。目前市场上普遍预测美联储将在3月加息，但里德认为加息时间在6月，并将基于这一假设预测本轮经济衰退的起止时间。\n德意志银行的数据显示，在美联储自1955年以来的13个独立加息周期中，从宣布加息当天开始计算，经济衰退平均会在36-42个月后出现，其中中位数和平均水平为首次加息后的37个月和42个月。\n以史为鉴，本轮经济衰退出现的时间可能在2025年7月或12月。在此前的经济衰退周期中，经济衰退最快在加息过后的11个月出现，也就是说本轮经济衰退最早有可能在2023年5月发生。\n从美债收益率曲线来看，首次加息过后，美国2年期和10年期国债收益率曲线几乎都会趋平，在加息后的一年内平均利差为80个基点。假设从现在到明年6月收益率曲线都是平坦的，鉴于美国2年期和10年期国债收益率利差目前已低于80个基点，2022年6月的首次加息可能会使收益率曲线在2023年6月出现倒挂。\n\n根据上图，平均来说，经济衰退会在收益率曲线倒挂后的第18个月发生，由此可以推算出本轮经济将在2024年12月左右开始衰退。\n在新冠疫情爆发之前，经济衰退最快在曲线倒挂后的9个月发生，以此最快速度推测，经济衰退将在2023年3月发生。\n尽管上述猜测只是根据过往历史进行的，但也提供了一个大致的框架。\n众所周知，每一次经济衰退周期都有不同之处。许多人认为，在此次周期中，美联储已经落后于市场，导致如今我们可能将面临一个更激进的紧缩周期。\n20世纪60年代中期，美联储就犯过同样的错误。当时美联储维持过于宽松的货币政策，将经济衰退推迟到了1969年末，但最终通胀在1970年失控，随后的能源冲击更是火上浇油。\n就连美联储超级鸽派前明尼阿波利斯联储主席——赫拉科塔都在反对这种放纵通胀而维持经济增长的政策。\n历史表明，在其他条件相同的情况下，美国在2024年或2025年之间出现经济衰退是一种比较现实的假设，衰退不可避免，但也有望更早结束。\n德意志央行的最新市场调查显示，64%的受访者认为经济衰退将在2024年发生；31%的受访者认为是2024年。\n\n市场似乎也普遍认同上述调查中大多数人的观点。由下图可见，交易员们正在消化4y/1y-2y/1y远期掉期曲线倒挂的预期，这意味着2025年的美联储联邦基金利率将低于2023年，表明在此期间的某个时间点，美联储将开启下一个宽松周期。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699020673,"gmtCreate":1639725049060,"gmtModify":1639725049258,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F34.SI\">$丰益国际(F34.SI)$</a>[傲娇]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F34.SI\">$丰益国际(F34.SI)$</a>[傲娇]&nbsp;","text":"$丰益国际(F34.SI)$[傲娇]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d2bd6e031a58022c4469861e341459c","width":"750","height":"1334"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699020673","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690780447,"gmtCreate":1639708835311,"gmtModify":1639709124344,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"叹为观止","listText":"叹为观止","text":"叹为观止","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690780447","repostId":"1137745918","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137745918","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1639705076,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137745918?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-17 09:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"这个国家货币崩盘，全因总统“奇葩操作”？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137745918","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"这周土耳其里拉又双叒叕崩了，自年初至今兑美元贬值已接近50%！\n\n11月的通胀也飚上了21%！\n可它却自9月起连续3个月大幅降息，预计12月的议息会议还要继续降！\n总统甚至为了降息，不惜先后罢免了3位","content":"<p>这周土耳其里拉又双叒叕崩了，自年初至今兑美元贬值已接近50%！</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc2aa45107c67db2c6c7dace471a4a77\" tg-width=\"901\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>11月的通胀也飚上了21%！</p>\n<p>可它却自9月起连续3个月大幅降息，预计12月的议息会议还要继续降！</p>\n<p><b>总统甚至为了降息，不惜先后罢免了3位央行行长和3名央行投票官员</b>。</p>\n<p>就连财政部长都因此请辞。</p>\n<p><b>埃尔多安坚信只有降息才能对抗通胀。</b></p>\n<p>这位“新时代的苏丹”曾一手缔造了土耳其的奇迹经济，使其在战火纷飞的中东傲然而立。</p>\n<p><b>而如今却眼看土耳其深陷通胀、贬值和债务泥潭，却充耳不闻。</b></p>\n<p>一意孤行的埃尔多安在“奇葩操作”的道路上将奔向何方？</p>\n<p><b>01、国中土耳其和救世埃尔多安</b></p>\n<p>土耳其，横跨欧亚大陆，北临黑海，南临地中海，东南与叙利亚、伊拉克接壤，西临爱琴海，与希腊以及保加利亚接壤，东接格鲁吉亚、亚美尼亚、阿塞拜疆和伊朗。有着极为重要的地理和地缘政治地位。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/249a275e8bfe17da32fecd01be9eb448\" tg-width=\"802\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>1453年奥斯曼帝国的苏丹默罕默德二世攻下君士坦丁堡后，将自己的国旗改为星月标记（君士坦丁堡的标志），底色改为大红（罗马帝国的颜色），表示自己是东正教的延续，是罗马帝国的后继者。<b>这面国旗传承至今依旧是土耳其的国旗。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64a3df1a9a9a44b04ecab699e7f642db\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>奥斯曼帝国的鼎盛时期，地域上统治横跨欧洲、亚洲和非洲，君主苏丹更视自己为天下之主。</p>\n<p>然而承载着太多记忆的国家，对于其往后的领导者都是一个沉重的考验。辉煌的历史在身后，颠沛的现实却在眼前。</p>\n<p>冷战结束后土耳其享受了发展红利，可好景不长，土耳其的经济再度陷入崩溃，通胀失去控制，里拉变成废纸。</p>\n<p>如同很多救世英雄一样，埃尔多安就在这样灾难性的背景下登上历史舞台。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d1ac4451ab11b5f93b2f2776a950cce\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"803\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>1954年埃尔多安出生在伊斯坦布尔的一个不算富有的家庭。27岁时他加入了主张政教合一的福利党，正式征战政坛，但始终政绩平平。</p>\n<p>1994年已迈入不惑之年的埃尔多安迎来了他生命中的转折。首先他当选了土耳其第一大城市伊斯坦布尔的市长。当时的土耳其刚刚走出持久的内战，民生经济重创未愈。然而在埃尔多安上任后不久，整个城市就焕然一新。他清除了发国难财的贪腐势力，整合了脏乱没有秩序的街道，为自己打下了深厚的民意基础。</p>\n<p>其次，他认识了一生中最重要的人，大他13岁的居伦。后来居伦便和埃尔多安确立了政治同盟，用自己强大的政治号召力，开始扶持他平步青云。</p>\n<p>2002年底在人民对主流政党完全失望的情况下正发党赢得大选。埃尔多安也在居伦的帮助下成功进入内阁，荣升总理。</p>\n<p>曾有人说居伦不仅是埃尔多安的强大盟友，也是埃尔多安的精神导师。</p>\n<p>但事实证明，居伦只是埃尔多安爬上权力巅峰的台阶。</p>\n<p><b>02、安纳托利亚之虎</b></p>\n<p>埃尔多安也远不是一个没有经历过通胀、贬值、经济一地鸡毛的人。相反，他经历的太多。在他上台之初面对的土耳其就是如此。</p>\n<p>1999年和2001年连续经历了两次经济危机后，土耳其通胀接近40%，100万里拉只能兑换1美元，使得里拉成为全球最不值钱的货币之一。银行利率一度高达1000%，但依然无法阻止大量的资本外逃。</p>\n<p>而经济崩溃时军队习惯性干政，也让骨子里奉行教权主义的埃尔多安明白，政治集权的背后必然要有经济的保驾护航。于是，埃尔多安执政后开始韬光养晦的先解决国内经济问题。他接受了国际货币基金组织的110亿美元紧急援助方案，同时也坚持推动私有化、全球化、自由化改革，重塑经济体制和政府机构职能。</p>\n<p>“自由主义”与“改革、出口红利”双轮驱动</p>\n<p>2003年5月埃尔多安政府启动“土耳其私有化战略”，将几乎所有的国有资产都列入私有化或拍卖行列，涉及能源、交通、银行、工业、烟草、桥梁以及卫生、教育、住房等等。2003-2012年的9年间，土耳其私有化总收入已达535亿美元。“改革红利”短期带来私人投资和外资流入的大幅增加，对经济的拉动作用显著增强。</p>\n<p>同时土耳其与欧盟等西方国家的关系也进入蜜月期。背靠欧盟制造实力强大但劳动力成本过高，而东南面俄罗斯、伊拉克、沙特等浑身流油但不擅长制造，土耳其无疑成为了再理想不过的制造业出口市场。</p>\n<p>埃尔多安一边积极推动土耳其入欧，向西方国家靠拢。一边主动与伊朗、叙利亚等国往来贸易，使得国内制造业得到迅猛发展。大量的欧洲资本因此流入土耳其，推动土耳其的汽车、造船、纺织、钢铁等制造业跻身全球前十的制造出口国家。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d98683614b7489bf45332fba9a289a2\" tg-width=\"1030\" tg-height=\"795\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>2002-2008年期间，埃尔多安不仅成功地将通货膨胀率控制在5%-8%左右，还让土耳其GDP的年平均增长率达到7.3%，速度超过俄罗斯、巴西和韩国。土耳其的人均GDP从3100美元增加到11000美元以上，翻了约四倍。一度如丧家之犬的土耳其摇身变成安纳托利亚之虎，逐渐在战火纷飞的中东地区傲然而立。</p>\n<p>2011年美国《时代》周刊年度人物投票埃尔多安当选。“尽管不是中东人，但他是最受中东人欢迎的世界领导人。他的外交使团迎来的欢呼声会使一个摇滚明星感到嫉妒。”</p>\n<p>英国《经济学人》杂志甚至称之为：“新时代的苏丹”。</p>\n<p>不过，私有化改革对资本实力有限的国家来说，也是一把“双刃剑”。它给土耳其带来高速发展的同时，也因将经济过度绑定外债和加剧贫富差距失业率，给土耳其当前的劫难埋下了伏笔。</p>\n<p><b>03、“土耳其建造”和权力巅峰</b></p>\n<p>2009年全球金融危机冲击之下，土耳其的经济也陷入衰退。像大多数国家一样，土耳其开始实施财政刺激加宽松货币。但在需求不振的背景下，流动性毫无例外的流向房地产和基础设施建设。土耳其房地产市场一路高歌猛进。政府将从中获得的收入又大搞机场、道路、桥梁、旧城改造等基建项目。埃尔多安带领着土耳其走上另一条发展经济的道路：“土耳其制造”让位“土耳其建造”。</p>\n<p>房地产和基建对政府而言从来都是甜蜜的毒药，其特征便是刺激强见效快，于是唯GDP论的埃尔多安毫不吝啬的饮下了杯毒药，对背后债务和风险视而不见。因为每当谈到伊斯坦布尔新机场、博斯普鲁斯新大桥；黑海与马尔马拉海的新运河；亚洲区的曼哈顿这些辉煌的政绩工程时，不仅意味着更高的GDP，埃尔多安的人望也逐渐如日中天。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1618582e3da52ff8ec8cbd5638a0868\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>2014年8月埃尔多安以51.79%的得票率远超另两名候选人，当选土耳其第12届总统。对此，全球很多金融市场看好土耳其未来，伊斯坦布尔股市甚至在当天上涨5%。</p>\n<p>这个时候著名发展经济学专家罗德里克曾提出过反对意见。“这一切都是埃尔多安的策略，埃尔多安态度上和西方有抵触，与ISIS关系也不明确，因此其当选有极大的不确定性。”罗德里克认为埃尔多安很可能实行民粹主义和专制，不料此言一语成谶。羽翼丰满的埃尔多安终于露出他的真面目，开启了一系列安内攘外的行动。</p>\n<p>第一件便是清除异己。他的政治抱负本就和居伦截然不同，更何况一山怎能容二虎。居伦的“影子政府”让埃尔多安如鲠在喉，终于这一年友谊的小船彻底翻了。埃尔多安直接宣称居伦是国家的敌人，解职了超过6000名疑似“居伦运动”成员的警察、法官等国家公务员。一时间，“居伦运动”元气大伤。没了昔日盟友同台抢戏，埃尔多安在政坛可谓风光独好。他也被追随者鼓吹为凯末尔之后的“新土耳其国父”。</p>\n<p>同时埃尔多安也开始对外扩张他的奥斯曼帝国梦。历届中东战争中，土耳其就像个旁观者。埃尔多安却想要改变这一切。“阿拉伯之春”后，土耳其逐渐试图利用中东变局谋求其在中东事物的主导权，高调强硬介入埃及、叙利亚等国事务。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6deea260d49e1f713bbad387a152798b\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>哈萨克斯坦总统托卡耶夫曾评价：“在埃尔多安的英明领导和远见政策下，土耳其继续稳定发展，并在区域和国际社会上的地位不断提升。”2017年，埃尔多安也达到了权力巅峰。</p>\n<p><b>04、经济不行，那就打安全牌</b></p>\n<p>就在埃尔多安的权力达到了顶峰的时候，土耳其的经济也走到了繁荣的顶点。2016年的政变虽然没有成功，但却改变了许多事。</p>\n<p>首先它让埃尔多安明白欧盟终究没想带他入伙。在欧盟精英的眼里，他不过是一个异类。本质上高度自由化的欧洲，容不下土耳其这个带有浓厚的宗教观念残存和一个表面上推行世俗化骨子里是教权派领导的国家加入欧盟。除了难民问题，如果没有更多的筹码，埃尔多安想要入欧大概只是黄粱一梦。</p>\n<p>这场政变也让埃尔多安怀疑是美国在背后耍花样，并庇护政变主谋居伦。没多久土耳其便指控美国传教士安德鲁·布伦森为“间谍”，将其逮捕入狱。布伦森事件则成为美国制裁土耳其的主要“导火索”。</p>\n<p>埃尔多安知道了自己只不过是西方发达国家的工具人后，开始和曾经剑拔弩张的俄罗斯打得火热，并与阿萨德实现交往。当然了，这并不妨碍土耳其继续掺和混乱的叙利亚局势。</p>\n<p>只是埃尔多安倒戈俄罗斯却让美国更为恼火。2018年8月特朗普将土耳其钢铝关税提高了一倍，并在得知土耳其采购了俄罗斯s400防空导弹后，马上暂停了美国F35战机出口土耳其的计划。</p>\n<p>正当土耳其被美、欧整的惨兮兮的时候，埃尔多安却抓住一个关键的机会。2018年10月土耳其在“卡舒吉案”上大搞文章，成功离间了美国与沙特这对死忠盟友，巩固了与俄罗斯、卡塔尔的革命友谊。11月埃尔多安又以此为谈判条件与特朗普见面，达成了向美国购买35亿爱国者导弹的生意。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8f70a39e066b44c406442678b71e599\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>当然埃尔多安和俄罗斯的友谊小船也从不牢固。叙利亚的问题还没有解决，乌尔兰危机又对土耳其和俄罗斯形成考验。就在安卡拉向基辅出售战斗无人机后，俄罗斯对其公民前往土耳其的旅游实施了限制。</p>\n<p>不负“中东搅屎棍”之名，埃尔多安在中东地区四处出击，既想控制叙利亚，又想控制利比亚。通过强硬军事外交刷存在感，并借此在各个大国之间摇摆周旋。</p>\n<p>当然，这也导致2018年至2020年土耳其的国防开支翻了一倍，平均年增长32.8%，在GDP的贡献中明显提升。</p>\n<p>“过去将近5至6年，土耳其经济都没有出现明显的好的转机，内部增长动力也不足，在未来会是非常大的挑战。那就打安全牌。” 上海外国语大学中东研究所副所长孙德表示。</p>\n<p>土耳其内部的经济结构的负面影响逐步体现。随着举债模式对经济拉动作用的弱化，大规模基建背后的风险和巨额的债务开始吞噬土耳其经济的活力，高通胀率、高失业和高赤字对经济的负面影响则日益凸显。土耳其的实际GDP由2017年底的7.27%跌落到2018、2019年的0增长附近。人均GDP也降低到10000美元以下。</p>\n<p>土耳其也错失了产业升级的机遇，导致土耳其的制造和出口依然集中在低端。制造业出口由02-07的年均增速22.24%回落到10-15年6.32%和17-20年的2.53%。2019年末高科技产品出口仅占出口总额的3.04%。</p>\n<p>如果土耳其看成一份资产负债表，那它的高杠杆和资不抵债时刻提示着其金融体系的脆弱性。</p>\n<p>2020年底土耳其外债达到4500亿美元，国内生产总值为7170亿美元，外债的国内生产总值占比高达62%。其最近外汇储备为1640亿美元（因为今年预期里拉贬值，国内已经大幅增加了外汇的持有，年初仅有1280亿美元），占外债的三分之一。</p>\n<p>但在对外贸易方面，土耳其却长期处于大额逆差的失血状态，2020年贸易赤字到367亿美元。外贸总额下滑也对经济增长的拉动作用在下降。</p>\n<p>在高度依赖借钱度日的发展模式下，土耳其只能大开资本市场国门，挖新坑填旧坑。这就使得土耳其经济一直深受国际金融市场的影响，而里拉也成为最易受到冲击的新兴国家货币之一。国际资本在土耳其经济上升的时候火上浇油，也在土耳其经济跌落的时候雪上加霜。</p>\n<p>2018年美国加息后美元快速走高，里拉贬值突破6：1；2020年疫情爆发恐慌性避险美元流动性紧缩，里拉贬值突破8：1；当前美国量化宽松退出美元走强土耳其降息，里拉贬值突破13：1。美元扇动一下翅膀，对里拉而言都是一场风暴。</p>\n<p>而埃尔多安的“奇葩操作”还在给这场风暴火上浇油。</p>\n<p><b>05、加息还是降息，这是个问题</b></p>\n<p>当前土耳其通胀过高、汇率贬值，加息是央行行长们教科书上的标准答案。但问题是加多少才能抑制通胀，加多少才能稳住国际资本的信心？不知道。</p>\n<p>可能埃尔多安还记得自己上任前的那场危机，银行利率即便高达1000%，也阻挡不了资本外逃。而现在的情况也不容乐观。一方面土耳其经济在疫情下旧伤新痛难愈而美国收缩流动性全球资金回流已是趋势，另一方面埃尔多安在教权主义上的一意孤行也让长期海外资本丧失信心。要命的是，过高的利率对于本土产业和就业市场无疑又是沉重的打击，让经济陷入两难的境地。</p>\n<p><b>所以在埃尔多安眼里，加息没有任何好处。</b></p>\n<p><b>那么降息呢</b>？从经常项目的角度，可以刺激出口刺激增长，缩小逆差甚至转为盈余，此为一利。可以刺激国内生产扩张增加供给，此为二利。继续给房地产基建行业输血，此为三利。但现实根本没有这么简单。土耳其过度依赖进口，且进口以消费弹性低的原材料、制造品和日用品为主。那么里拉暴跌不仅不能缩小逆差，反而可能导致逆差和通胀加剧。扩大生产也是如此，供给和需求是长短期的矛盾，短时间内难以弥合只会恶化。而对于外债占到GDP半壁江山的经济，里拉的暴跌对于负债企业而言更是形同噩梦。</p>\n<p>因而短期的阵痛在所难免，即保持高利率非常必要。从而保证通胀的稳定、投资信心的稳定和币值的稳定。国内外资本信心的回复，才能真正压低借贷成本。</p>\n<p>长期而言产业规划和重塑货币中立是关键。土耳其既要削减外债饥渴症，要将发展格局从地产基建拉动的短期刺激转向对优势制造业、服务业的长期规划。要降低贫富差距来增强经济和消费的内生动力。很关键的还要保证中央银行的独立性。</p>\n<p>就像经济学家纳斯说的：“对于土耳其而言，短暂的加息就像阿司匹林，可以止痛，但无法治愈疾病。没有有意义的结构改革，没有中央银行的独立性，一切都是空谈。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5633b05c1b07021d28fc5c2d7bbf04a4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"746\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>11 月下旬，货币崩盘在土耳其主要城市引发了抗议活动，成群结队的示威者高呼要求埃尔多安辞职。防暴警察在伊斯坦布尔的街道上排起了长队。警方在伊斯坦布尔几个街区的抗议活动中拘留了60多人。</p>\n<p>“<b>我们过去每天都煮肉。现在每周只有一次</b>，”58岁的工人玛丽亚姆·阿塔莱说，“我们总是投票给正发党。现在让我们试试其他人。”即使在伊斯坦布尔，埃尔多安也在失去当初引以为傲的民意基础。这是埃尔多安的故乡，也曾是埃尔多安民意基础最深厚的地方。</p>\n<p>而同样，今年里拉暴跌的主谋，不是外资而是内资。<b>居民、企业争先恐后将手中的里拉换成美元黄金。这也将为土耳其的金融机构带来几十年来最严峻考验。</b></p>\n<p>但是在权力的核心区，这场危机似乎并没有让总统或其顾问感到不安。街头抗议发生的同时，埃尔多安会见了他的经济团队。“没有紧张，没有警报，”一名官员说。“没有理由担心，土耳其不会经历货币危机。”</p>\n<p>埃尔多安也依旧不忘他的王图霸业。11月12日在伊斯坦布尔举行了所谓的“突厥语国家合作委员会”第八届峰会。土耳其、哈萨克斯坦等六国发布重磅联合声明，将组织更名为“突厥国家组织”，既然入不了欧，土耳其大概想要试试自己搞一个中东的“欧盟”。</p>\n<p><b>为了他的教权主义和帝国大梦，埃尔多安先生还在“奇葩操作”的道路上狂奔。</b></p>\n<p>而为这个梦买单的注定是普通土耳其人。</p>\n<p>用前土耳其财政部官员卡纳克奇的话说，<b>“这是一场越来越贫穷的危机</b>。”</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>这个国家货币崩盘，全因总统“奇葩操作”？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n这个国家货币崩盘，全因总统“奇葩操作”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-12-17 09:37 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>这周土耳其里拉又双叒叕崩了，自年初至今兑美元贬值已接近50%！\n\n11月的通胀也飚上了21%！\n可它却自9月起连续3个月大幅降息，预计12月的议息会议还要继续降！\n总统甚至为了降息，不惜先后罢免了3位央行行长和3名央行投票官员。\n就连财政部长都因此请辞。\n埃尔多安坚信只有降息才能对抗通胀。\n这位“新时代的苏丹”曾一手缔造了土耳其的奇迹经济，使其在战火纷飞的中东傲然而立。\n而如今却眼看土耳其深陷通胀...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8126f24fba29373e2f85bec8fb6e411c","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137745918","content_text":"这周土耳其里拉又双叒叕崩了，自年初至今兑美元贬值已接近50%！\n\n11月的通胀也飚上了21%！\n可它却自9月起连续3个月大幅降息，预计12月的议息会议还要继续降！\n总统甚至为了降息，不惜先后罢免了3位央行行长和3名央行投票官员。\n就连财政部长都因此请辞。\n埃尔多安坚信只有降息才能对抗通胀。\n这位“新时代的苏丹”曾一手缔造了土耳其的奇迹经济，使其在战火纷飞的中东傲然而立。\n而如今却眼看土耳其深陷通胀、贬值和债务泥潭，却充耳不闻。\n一意孤行的埃尔多安在“奇葩操作”的道路上将奔向何方？\n01、国中土耳其和救世埃尔多安\n土耳其，横跨欧亚大陆，北临黑海，南临地中海，东南与叙利亚、伊拉克接壤，西临爱琴海，与希腊以及保加利亚接壤，东接格鲁吉亚、亚美尼亚、阿塞拜疆和伊朗。有着极为重要的地理和地缘政治地位。\n\n1453年奥斯曼帝国的苏丹默罕默德二世攻下君士坦丁堡后，将自己的国旗改为星月标记（君士坦丁堡的标志），底色改为大红（罗马帝国的颜色），表示自己是东正教的延续，是罗马帝国的后继者。这面国旗传承至今依旧是土耳其的国旗。\n\n奥斯曼帝国的鼎盛时期，地域上统治横跨欧洲、亚洲和非洲，君主苏丹更视自己为天下之主。\n然而承载着太多记忆的国家，对于其往后的领导者都是一个沉重的考验。辉煌的历史在身后，颠沛的现实却在眼前。\n冷战结束后土耳其享受了发展红利，可好景不长，土耳其的经济再度陷入崩溃，通胀失去控制，里拉变成废纸。\n如同很多救世英雄一样，埃尔多安就在这样灾难性的背景下登上历史舞台。\n\n1954年埃尔多安出生在伊斯坦布尔的一个不算富有的家庭。27岁时他加入了主张政教合一的福利党，正式征战政坛，但始终政绩平平。\n1994年已迈入不惑之年的埃尔多安迎来了他生命中的转折。首先他当选了土耳其第一大城市伊斯坦布尔的市长。当时的土耳其刚刚走出持久的内战，民生经济重创未愈。然而在埃尔多安上任后不久，整个城市就焕然一新。他清除了发国难财的贪腐势力，整合了脏乱没有秩序的街道，为自己打下了深厚的民意基础。\n其次，他认识了一生中最重要的人，大他13岁的居伦。后来居伦便和埃尔多安确立了政治同盟，用自己强大的政治号召力，开始扶持他平步青云。\n2002年底在人民对主流政党完全失望的情况下正发党赢得大选。埃尔多安也在居伦的帮助下成功进入内阁，荣升总理。\n曾有人说居伦不仅是埃尔多安的强大盟友，也是埃尔多安的精神导师。\n但事实证明，居伦只是埃尔多安爬上权力巅峰的台阶。\n02、安纳托利亚之虎\n埃尔多安也远不是一个没有经历过通胀、贬值、经济一地鸡毛的人。相反，他经历的太多。在他上台之初面对的土耳其就是如此。\n1999年和2001年连续经历了两次经济危机后，土耳其通胀接近40%，100万里拉只能兑换1美元，使得里拉成为全球最不值钱的货币之一。银行利率一度高达1000%，但依然无法阻止大量的资本外逃。\n而经济崩溃时军队习惯性干政，也让骨子里奉行教权主义的埃尔多安明白，政治集权的背后必然要有经济的保驾护航。于是，埃尔多安执政后开始韬光养晦的先解决国内经济问题。他接受了国际货币基金组织的110亿美元紧急援助方案，同时也坚持推动私有化、全球化、自由化改革，重塑经济体制和政府机构职能。\n“自由主义”与“改革、出口红利”双轮驱动\n2003年5月埃尔多安政府启动“土耳其私有化战略”，将几乎所有的国有资产都列入私有化或拍卖行列，涉及能源、交通、银行、工业、烟草、桥梁以及卫生、教育、住房等等。2003-2012年的9年间，土耳其私有化总收入已达535亿美元。“改革红利”短期带来私人投资和外资流入的大幅增加，对经济的拉动作用显著增强。\n同时土耳其与欧盟等西方国家的关系也进入蜜月期。背靠欧盟制造实力强大但劳动力成本过高，而东南面俄罗斯、伊拉克、沙特等浑身流油但不擅长制造，土耳其无疑成为了再理想不过的制造业出口市场。\n埃尔多安一边积极推动土耳其入欧，向西方国家靠拢。一边主动与伊朗、叙利亚等国往来贸易，使得国内制造业得到迅猛发展。大量的欧洲资本因此流入土耳其，推动土耳其的汽车、造船、纺织、钢铁等制造业跻身全球前十的制造出口国家。\n\n2002-2008年期间，埃尔多安不仅成功地将通货膨胀率控制在5%-8%左右，还让土耳其GDP的年平均增长率达到7.3%，速度超过俄罗斯、巴西和韩国。土耳其的人均GDP从3100美元增加到11000美元以上，翻了约四倍。一度如丧家之犬的土耳其摇身变成安纳托利亚之虎，逐渐在战火纷飞的中东地区傲然而立。\n2011年美国《时代》周刊年度人物投票埃尔多安当选。“尽管不是中东人，但他是最受中东人欢迎的世界领导人。他的外交使团迎来的欢呼声会使一个摇滚明星感到嫉妒。”\n英国《经济学人》杂志甚至称之为：“新时代的苏丹”。\n不过，私有化改革对资本实力有限的国家来说，也是一把“双刃剑”。它给土耳其带来高速发展的同时，也因将经济过度绑定外债和加剧贫富差距失业率，给土耳其当前的劫难埋下了伏笔。\n03、“土耳其建造”和权力巅峰\n2009年全球金融危机冲击之下，土耳其的经济也陷入衰退。像大多数国家一样，土耳其开始实施财政刺激加宽松货币。但在需求不振的背景下，流动性毫无例外的流向房地产和基础设施建设。土耳其房地产市场一路高歌猛进。政府将从中获得的收入又大搞机场、道路、桥梁、旧城改造等基建项目。埃尔多安带领着土耳其走上另一条发展经济的道路：“土耳其制造”让位“土耳其建造”。\n房地产和基建对政府而言从来都是甜蜜的毒药，其特征便是刺激强见效快，于是唯GDP论的埃尔多安毫不吝啬的饮下了杯毒药，对背后债务和风险视而不见。因为每当谈到伊斯坦布尔新机场、博斯普鲁斯新大桥；黑海与马尔马拉海的新运河；亚洲区的曼哈顿这些辉煌的政绩工程时，不仅意味着更高的GDP，埃尔多安的人望也逐渐如日中天。\n\n2014年8月埃尔多安以51.79%的得票率远超另两名候选人，当选土耳其第12届总统。对此，全球很多金融市场看好土耳其未来，伊斯坦布尔股市甚至在当天上涨5%。\n这个时候著名发展经济学专家罗德里克曾提出过反对意见。“这一切都是埃尔多安的策略，埃尔多安态度上和西方有抵触，与ISIS关系也不明确，因此其当选有极大的不确定性。”罗德里克认为埃尔多安很可能实行民粹主义和专制，不料此言一语成谶。羽翼丰满的埃尔多安终于露出他的真面目，开启了一系列安内攘外的行动。\n第一件便是清除异己。他的政治抱负本就和居伦截然不同，更何况一山怎能容二虎。居伦的“影子政府”让埃尔多安如鲠在喉，终于这一年友谊的小船彻底翻了。埃尔多安直接宣称居伦是国家的敌人，解职了超过6000名疑似“居伦运动”成员的警察、法官等国家公务员。一时间，“居伦运动”元气大伤。没了昔日盟友同台抢戏，埃尔多安在政坛可谓风光独好。他也被追随者鼓吹为凯末尔之后的“新土耳其国父”。\n同时埃尔多安也开始对外扩张他的奥斯曼帝国梦。历届中东战争中，土耳其就像个旁观者。埃尔多安却想要改变这一切。“阿拉伯之春”后，土耳其逐渐试图利用中东变局谋求其在中东事物的主导权，高调强硬介入埃及、叙利亚等国事务。\n\n哈萨克斯坦总统托卡耶夫曾评价：“在埃尔多安的英明领导和远见政策下，土耳其继续稳定发展，并在区域和国际社会上的地位不断提升。”2017年，埃尔多安也达到了权力巅峰。\n04、经济不行，那就打安全牌\n就在埃尔多安的权力达到了顶峰的时候，土耳其的经济也走到了繁荣的顶点。2016年的政变虽然没有成功，但却改变了许多事。\n首先它让埃尔多安明白欧盟终究没想带他入伙。在欧盟精英的眼里，他不过是一个异类。本质上高度自由化的欧洲，容不下土耳其这个带有浓厚的宗教观念残存和一个表面上推行世俗化骨子里是教权派领导的国家加入欧盟。除了难民问题，如果没有更多的筹码，埃尔多安想要入欧大概只是黄粱一梦。\n这场政变也让埃尔多安怀疑是美国在背后耍花样，并庇护政变主谋居伦。没多久土耳其便指控美国传教士安德鲁·布伦森为“间谍”，将其逮捕入狱。布伦森事件则成为美国制裁土耳其的主要“导火索”。\n埃尔多安知道了自己只不过是西方发达国家的工具人后，开始和曾经剑拔弩张的俄罗斯打得火热，并与阿萨德实现交往。当然了，这并不妨碍土耳其继续掺和混乱的叙利亚局势。\n只是埃尔多安倒戈俄罗斯却让美国更为恼火。2018年8月特朗普将土耳其钢铝关税提高了一倍，并在得知土耳其采购了俄罗斯s400防空导弹后，马上暂停了美国F35战机出口土耳其的计划。\n正当土耳其被美、欧整的惨兮兮的时候，埃尔多安却抓住一个关键的机会。2018年10月土耳其在“卡舒吉案”上大搞文章，成功离间了美国与沙特这对死忠盟友，巩固了与俄罗斯、卡塔尔的革命友谊。11月埃尔多安又以此为谈判条件与特朗普见面，达成了向美国购买35亿爱国者导弹的生意。\n\n当然埃尔多安和俄罗斯的友谊小船也从不牢固。叙利亚的问题还没有解决，乌尔兰危机又对土耳其和俄罗斯形成考验。就在安卡拉向基辅出售战斗无人机后，俄罗斯对其公民前往土耳其的旅游实施了限制。\n不负“中东搅屎棍”之名，埃尔多安在中东地区四处出击，既想控制叙利亚，又想控制利比亚。通过强硬军事外交刷存在感，并借此在各个大国之间摇摆周旋。\n当然，这也导致2018年至2020年土耳其的国防开支翻了一倍，平均年增长32.8%，在GDP的贡献中明显提升。\n“过去将近5至6年，土耳其经济都没有出现明显的好的转机，内部增长动力也不足，在未来会是非常大的挑战。那就打安全牌。” 上海外国语大学中东研究所副所长孙德表示。\n土耳其内部的经济结构的负面影响逐步体现。随着举债模式对经济拉动作用的弱化，大规模基建背后的风险和巨额的债务开始吞噬土耳其经济的活力，高通胀率、高失业和高赤字对经济的负面影响则日益凸显。土耳其的实际GDP由2017年底的7.27%跌落到2018、2019年的0增长附近。人均GDP也降低到10000美元以下。\n土耳其也错失了产业升级的机遇，导致土耳其的制造和出口依然集中在低端。制造业出口由02-07的年均增速22.24%回落到10-15年6.32%和17-20年的2.53%。2019年末高科技产品出口仅占出口总额的3.04%。\n如果土耳其看成一份资产负债表，那它的高杠杆和资不抵债时刻提示着其金融体系的脆弱性。\n2020年底土耳其外债达到4500亿美元，国内生产总值为7170亿美元，外债的国内生产总值占比高达62%。其最近外汇储备为1640亿美元（因为今年预期里拉贬值，国内已经大幅增加了外汇的持有，年初仅有1280亿美元），占外债的三分之一。\n但在对外贸易方面，土耳其却长期处于大额逆差的失血状态，2020年贸易赤字到367亿美元。外贸总额下滑也对经济增长的拉动作用在下降。\n在高度依赖借钱度日的发展模式下，土耳其只能大开资本市场国门，挖新坑填旧坑。这就使得土耳其经济一直深受国际金融市场的影响，而里拉也成为最易受到冲击的新兴国家货币之一。国际资本在土耳其经济上升的时候火上浇油，也在土耳其经济跌落的时候雪上加霜。\n2018年美国加息后美元快速走高，里拉贬值突破6：1；2020年疫情爆发恐慌性避险美元流动性紧缩，里拉贬值突破8：1；当前美国量化宽松退出美元走强土耳其降息，里拉贬值突破13：1。美元扇动一下翅膀，对里拉而言都是一场风暴。\n而埃尔多安的“奇葩操作”还在给这场风暴火上浇油。\n05、加息还是降息，这是个问题\n当前土耳其通胀过高、汇率贬值，加息是央行行长们教科书上的标准答案。但问题是加多少才能抑制通胀，加多少才能稳住国际资本的信心？不知道。\n可能埃尔多安还记得自己上任前的那场危机，银行利率即便高达1000%，也阻挡不了资本外逃。而现在的情况也不容乐观。一方面土耳其经济在疫情下旧伤新痛难愈而美国收缩流动性全球资金回流已是趋势，另一方面埃尔多安在教权主义上的一意孤行也让长期海外资本丧失信心。要命的是，过高的利率对于本土产业和就业市场无疑又是沉重的打击，让经济陷入两难的境地。\n所以在埃尔多安眼里，加息没有任何好处。\n那么降息呢？从经常项目的角度，可以刺激出口刺激增长，缩小逆差甚至转为盈余，此为一利。可以刺激国内生产扩张增加供给，此为二利。继续给房地产基建行业输血，此为三利。但现实根本没有这么简单。土耳其过度依赖进口，且进口以消费弹性低的原材料、制造品和日用品为主。那么里拉暴跌不仅不能缩小逆差，反而可能导致逆差和通胀加剧。扩大生产也是如此，供给和需求是长短期的矛盾，短时间内难以弥合只会恶化。而对于外债占到GDP半壁江山的经济，里拉的暴跌对于负债企业而言更是形同噩梦。\n因而短期的阵痛在所难免，即保持高利率非常必要。从而保证通胀的稳定、投资信心的稳定和币值的稳定。国内外资本信心的回复，才能真正压低借贷成本。\n长期而言产业规划和重塑货币中立是关键。土耳其既要削减外债饥渴症，要将发展格局从地产基建拉动的短期刺激转向对优势制造业、服务业的长期规划。要降低贫富差距来增强经济和消费的内生动力。很关键的还要保证中央银行的独立性。\n就像经济学家纳斯说的：“对于土耳其而言，短暂的加息就像阿司匹林，可以止痛，但无法治愈疾病。没有有意义的结构改革，没有中央银行的独立性，一切都是空谈。”\n\n11 月下旬，货币崩盘在土耳其主要城市引发了抗议活动，成群结队的示威者高呼要求埃尔多安辞职。防暴警察在伊斯坦布尔的街道上排起了长队。警方在伊斯坦布尔几个街区的抗议活动中拘留了60多人。\n“我们过去每天都煮肉。现在每周只有一次，”58岁的工人玛丽亚姆·阿塔莱说，“我们总是投票给正发党。现在让我们试试其他人。”即使在伊斯坦布尔，埃尔多安也在失去当初引以为傲的民意基础。这是埃尔多安的故乡，也曾是埃尔多安民意基础最深厚的地方。\n而同样，今年里拉暴跌的主谋，不是外资而是内资。居民、企业争先恐后将手中的里拉换成美元黄金。这也将为土耳其的金融机构带来几十年来最严峻考验。\n但是在权力的核心区，这场危机似乎并没有让总统或其顾问感到不安。街头抗议发生的同时，埃尔多安会见了他的经济团队。“没有紧张，没有警报，”一名官员说。“没有理由担心，土耳其不会经历货币危机。”\n埃尔多安也依旧不忘他的王图霸业。11月12日在伊斯坦布尔举行了所谓的“突厥语国家合作委员会”第八届峰会。土耳其、哈萨克斯坦等六国发布重磅联合声明，将组织更名为“突厥国家组织”，既然入不了欧，土耳其大概想要试试自己搞一个中东的“欧盟”。\n为了他的教权主义和帝国大梦，埃尔多安先生还在“奇葩操作”的道路上狂奔。\n而为这个梦买单的注定是普通土耳其人。\n用前土耳其财政部官员卡纳克奇的话说，“这是一场越来越贫穷的危机。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690135870,"gmtCreate":1639646414527,"gmtModify":1639646414660,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"耐人寻味","listText":"耐人寻味","text":"耐人寻味","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690135870","repostId":"2191182519","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690138510,"gmtCreate":1639646307701,"gmtModify":1639646307872,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good 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16:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"钟南山、张文宏对新冠变异毒株Omicron作出最新研判","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158048760","media":"新浪科技","summary":"中国目前的快速响应与动态清零策略是可以应对各种类型的新冠变种的。","content":"<p><b>钟南山：变异株危害性还需要一段时间研判</b></p>\n<p>11月28日，中国罕见病联盟呼吸病学分会第一届全国会议在广州举行，中国工程院院士钟南山出席会议并讲话。</p>\n<p>活动中，钟南山接受记者采访表示，从目前的情况来看，Omicron变异株传播速度快，已在南非等地区流行，近期在中国香港也发现了一例。</p>\n<p>“这个变异株很新，虽然分子基因检测发现，它在受体结合部位有比较多的变化，但是它有多大的危害性、传播会有多快、会不会使疾病更加严重，以及是否需要针对它进行疫苗研发，还要根据情况来判断。现在下结论为时太早。”</p>\n<p>钟南山表示，Omicron变异株的危害性还需要一段时间的判断，需要随时注意，但是现在还不会采取比较大的行动。“还有一个需要比较注意的是，对南非有关地方来的人员进行防控。”</p>\n<p><b>张文宏：目前对中国不会产生大影响</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb956dfb46227348f46071b58070ed4d\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"1132\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>11月28日，上海市新冠肺炎临床救治专家组组长、复旦大学附属华山医院感染科主任张文宏医生在其个人社交账号发文，就新冠病毒变异毒株奥密克戎发表了自己的看法。全文如下↓↓</p>\n<p>上海疫情进入扫尾阶段。新冠新变异株奥密克戎登陆世界，迅速占领了所有学术论坛和百姓的饭堂。几点看法供大家参考：</p>\n<p>1。 奥密克戎变种被发现是近期的突发性事件，毫无疑问是病毒进化的产物。由于突变点数量远超已经发现的所有变种，预计应该是在宿主体内经历了较长时间的进化后形成。因为新冠病毒引起的是急性感染，难以在免疫功能正常者体内长时间生存与进化，也没有像流感病毒那样的基因重配发现，目前多数认为该变种可能是在免疫功能缺陷者，如艾滋病患者体内，经过长时间的携带，最终进化而成。形成新变体后，又经过偶然的机会经过传播，并迅速在传播上超越了已有的病毒传播能力，成为南非近期所记录的病毒株中的优势株（占比90%以上）。</p>\n<p>2。 由于携带病毒突变点多，在传播上短期内似乎战胜了南非的其他病毒株，包括德尔塔毒株。因此，世卫组织出于谨慎，将其列入了密切关注变异株（VOC），也就是说要引起极大关注。</p>\n<p>3。 但这是否已经说明全球抗疫的努力就此前功尽弃呢？现在还很难说。南非这次病毒株序列公布的总量不多，需要再观察未来两周更多的数据和实验室数据才能精准判断。</p>\n<p>4。 南非的疫苗接种完成率低，完成全程接种的人口比例仅仅24%，自然感染率4.9%左右，其实不足以构建疫苗和自然感染的免疫屏障，没有免疫屏障就谈不上免疫突破。也就是说如果这种情况今天出现在以色列，那么可以说毫无疑问，全球抗疫要面临重头再来的风险。</p>\n<p>5。 这里也就清楚了，为什么英国和以色列这些疫苗全程接种率超过80%，特别是以色列第三针接种率也已经达到了50%左右，这两个国家对外来输入采取的措施突然收紧。也就是说，对南非这种情况下，如果一旦明确这个病毒株可以突破原有的免疫屏障，那就意味着我们必须对已有的所有疫苗体系做调整，开始进入流感疫苗接种模式，也就是说每年要根据病毒变异情况，迅速构建新的疫苗。但是也意味着日子会变得更难。</p>\n<p>6。 据路透社报道，为防止疫情入侵，以色列27日宣布将关闭边境，禁止所有外国旅客入境，成为全球首个因“奥密克戎”毒株而封锁国境的国家。以总理贝内特表示，这项禁令可能将持续14天，这种变异毒株“非常令人担心”，以色列“在进入紧急状态的边缘”，所有人都要严阵以待。</p>\n<p>7。 这种情况下，可以判断，这次南非的变种病毒出现有偶然性，但是是否会对目前的初步建立的脆弱的人群免疫构成威胁，需要两周左右的观察时间。为什么初步定为两周内，是因为现在全球的流行病学数据，以及病毒中和试验数据，在两周到数周内都会出结果。这些工作我们复旦的团队和中国多个兄弟科研团队都在同步进行。不过我同意我的朋友香港大学病毒学家金冬雁教授的看法，“新冠病毒的变异是受到一定限制的，总的来讲，新冠的很多变种都没有存活下来，即使是存活下来的部分变种，其中也只有极少数能够成为优势株。从疫情暴发到现在，起码发现了上百种变异株，但只有一个德尔塔能留下来，在过去，贝塔和伽马变异株也被证明有比较强的免疫逃逸特性，但它们在和德尔塔的传播比赛中还是落败了，最后无声无息就消失了。”让我们拭目以待吧，好在不需要太长时间。</p>\n<p>最后说下，中国怎么办。</p>\n<p>我认为对中国目前还不会产生大的影响，中国目前的快速响应与动态清零策略是可以应对各种类型的新冠变种的。</p>\n<p>新冠病毒再变，还是新冠病毒。中国目前处于动态清零策略所赢得的战略机遇期内，正在加速构建下阶段应对常态化抗疫所需要的科学支撑，包括形成足以支撑世界开放的有效疫苗与药物储备，以及公共卫生及医疗资源储备。基于科学与团结，我们可以应对德尔塔，也能应对奥密克戎。</p>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>钟南山、张文宏对新冠变异毒株Omicron作出最新研判</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n钟南山、张文宏对新冠变异毒株Omicron作出最新研判\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-28 16:47 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-11-28/doc-ikyakumx0765676.shtml><strong>新浪科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>钟南山：变异株危害性还需要一段时间研判\n11月28日，中国罕见病联盟呼吸病学分会第一届全国会议在广州举行，中国工程院院士钟南山出席会议并讲话。\n活动中，钟南山接受记者采访表示，从目前的情况来看，Omicron变异株传播速度快，已在南非等地区流行，近期在中国香港也发现了一例。\n“这个变异株很新，虽然分子基因检测发现，它在受体结合部位有比较多的变化，但是它有多大的危害性、传播会有多快、会不会使疾病更加...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-11-28/doc-ikyakumx0765676.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e65fc4b023292b46db139c8ccb424d5","relate_stocks":{"BK1515":"抗疫概念","BK4568":"美国抗疫概念"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-11-28/doc-ikyakumx0765676.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158048760","content_text":"钟南山：变异株危害性还需要一段时间研判\n11月28日，中国罕见病联盟呼吸病学分会第一届全国会议在广州举行，中国工程院院士钟南山出席会议并讲话。\n活动中，钟南山接受记者采访表示，从目前的情况来看，Omicron变异株传播速度快，已在南非等地区流行，近期在中国香港也发现了一例。\n“这个变异株很新，虽然分子基因检测发现，它在受体结合部位有比较多的变化，但是它有多大的危害性、传播会有多快、会不会使疾病更加严重，以及是否需要针对它进行疫苗研发，还要根据情况来判断。现在下结论为时太早。”\n钟南山表示，Omicron变异株的危害性还需要一段时间的判断，需要随时注意，但是现在还不会采取比较大的行动。“还有一个需要比较注意的是，对南非有关地方来的人员进行防控。”\n张文宏：目前对中国不会产生大影响\n\n11月28日，上海市新冠肺炎临床救治专家组组长、复旦大学附属华山医院感染科主任张文宏医生在其个人社交账号发文，就新冠病毒变异毒株奥密克戎发表了自己的看法。全文如下↓↓\n上海疫情进入扫尾阶段。新冠新变异株奥密克戎登陆世界，迅速占领了所有学术论坛和百姓的饭堂。几点看法供大家参考：\n1。 奥密克戎变种被发现是近期的突发性事件，毫无疑问是病毒进化的产物。由于突变点数量远超已经发现的所有变种，预计应该是在宿主体内经历了较长时间的进化后形成。因为新冠病毒引起的是急性感染，难以在免疫功能正常者体内长时间生存与进化，也没有像流感病毒那样的基因重配发现，目前多数认为该变种可能是在免疫功能缺陷者，如艾滋病患者体内，经过长时间的携带，最终进化而成。形成新变体后，又经过偶然的机会经过传播，并迅速在传播上超越了已有的病毒传播能力，成为南非近期所记录的病毒株中的优势株（占比90%以上）。\n2。 由于携带病毒突变点多，在传播上短期内似乎战胜了南非的其他病毒株，包括德尔塔毒株。因此，世卫组织出于谨慎，将其列入了密切关注变异株（VOC），也就是说要引起极大关注。\n3。 但这是否已经说明全球抗疫的努力就此前功尽弃呢？现在还很难说。南非这次病毒株序列公布的总量不多，需要再观察未来两周更多的数据和实验室数据才能精准判断。\n4。 南非的疫苗接种完成率低，完成全程接种的人口比例仅仅24%，自然感染率4.9%左右，其实不足以构建疫苗和自然感染的免疫屏障，没有免疫屏障就谈不上免疫突破。也就是说如果这种情况今天出现在以色列，那么可以说毫无疑问，全球抗疫要面临重头再来的风险。\n5。 这里也就清楚了，为什么英国和以色列这些疫苗全程接种率超过80%，特别是以色列第三针接种率也已经达到了50%左右，这两个国家对外来输入采取的措施突然收紧。也就是说，对南非这种情况下，如果一旦明确这个病毒株可以突破原有的免疫屏障，那就意味着我们必须对已有的所有疫苗体系做调整，开始进入流感疫苗接种模式，也就是说每年要根据病毒变异情况，迅速构建新的疫苗。但是也意味着日子会变得更难。\n6。 据路透社报道，为防止疫情入侵，以色列27日宣布将关闭边境，禁止所有外国旅客入境，成为全球首个因“奥密克戎”毒株而封锁国境的国家。以总理贝内特表示，这项禁令可能将持续14天，这种变异毒株“非常令人担心”，以色列“在进入紧急状态的边缘”，所有人都要严阵以待。\n7。 这种情况下，可以判断，这次南非的变种病毒出现有偶然性，但是是否会对目前的初步建立的脆弱的人群免疫构成威胁，需要两周左右的观察时间。为什么初步定为两周内，是因为现在全球的流行病学数据，以及病毒中和试验数据，在两周到数周内都会出结果。这些工作我们复旦的团队和中国多个兄弟科研团队都在同步进行。不过我同意我的朋友香港大学病毒学家金冬雁教授的看法，“新冠病毒的变异是受到一定限制的，总的来讲，新冠的很多变种都没有存活下来，即使是存活下来的部分变种，其中也只有极少数能够成为优势株。从疫情暴发到现在，起码发现了上百种变异株，但只有一个德尔塔能留下来，在过去，贝塔和伽马变异株也被证明有比较强的免疫逃逸特性，但它们在和德尔塔的传播比赛中还是落败了，最后无声无息就消失了。”让我们拭目以待吧，好在不需要太长时间。\n最后说下，中国怎么办。\n我认为对中国目前还不会产生大的影响，中国目前的快速响应与动态清零策略是可以应对各种类型的新冠变种的。\n新冠病毒再变，还是新冠病毒。中国目前处于动态清零策略所赢得的战略机遇期内，正在加速构建下阶段应对常态化抗疫所需要的科学支撑，包括形成足以支撑世界开放的有效疫苗与药物储备，以及公共卫生及医疗资源储备。基于科学与团结，我们可以应对德尔塔，也能应对奥密克戎。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":812,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":872127648,"gmtCreate":1637461050804,"gmtModify":1637461050946,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好的[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"好的[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"好的[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872127648","repostId":"2185823164","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1156,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":876507543,"gmtCreate":1637328850545,"gmtModify":1637328850761,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876507543","repostId":"1120958755","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120958755","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1637324307,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120958755?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-19 20:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"盘前：欧美疫情重来？道指期货跌200点，中概股反弹","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120958755","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"欧洲疫情再度恶化，拖累周期性股票，而科技股相对风险较低。","content":"<p>11月19日（周五），美股三大指数期货涨跌不一，纳指期货走高。主要由于欧洲疫情再度恶化，拖累周期性股票，而科技股相对风险较低。</p>\n<p>奥地利今日直接宣布下周一（22日）起将实施全国封锁，并将于将于2022年2月1日起强制接种新冠疫苗。突发的封国消息令市场恐慌，此前欧洲多国只是加强了部分限制措施，而非封国。</p>\n<p>而欧洲最大经济体周四的新增确诊病例创历史新高，首次突破6.5万。波兰、匈牙利、等国新增确诊病例数也在近日陆续创下新高。英国也报告新增确诊病例超过4.6万例，法国报告新增确诊病例超2万例。</p>\n<p>目前，美国疫情虽未引发欧洲一样的封锁，但也不容乐观。根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学统计资料，截至北京时间2021年11月19日6时21分，过去24小时里，美国新增确诊病例110269例。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23e5d2824c8eb166acffd566bee8c301\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"252\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>【<b>中概股】</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>盘前跌0.76%。阿里二季度营收、盈利均不及预期，周四大跌超11%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>盘前涨1.59%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>盘前涨3.61%。此前恒指公司公布季检结果，京东、网易H股获纳入恒指成份股，二者在恒指中的权重分别为1.54%和0.64%， 所有变动将于2021年12月6日(星期一)起生效。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SY\">新氧</a>盘前涨2%。2021年第三季度，新氧总营收为人民币4.315亿元，同比增长20%。归属于新氧科技的净利润为人民币680万元，而上年同期净利润为人民币90万元。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YI\">1药网</a>盘前涨2.36%，第三季度公司营收达33.46亿元，同比增长42%。</p>\n<p>部分热门中概股在盘前反弹。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>涨1.33%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>涨1.05%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>涨2.33%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DUO\">房多多</a>大跌14%。第三季度营收环比下降57.8%至1.692亿元人民币(2630万美元)，逊于公司自身预期；不按美国公认会计准则计，净亏损3.344亿元人民币(5330万美元)，环比扩大。</p>\n<p>【<b>重要美股】</b></p>\n<p>“电车新贵”盘前涨跌不一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">Rivian Automotive Inc</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group Inc</a>跌超1%。而老“王者”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>盘前微涨0.57%。</p>\n<p>美股工业大麻板块盘前上扬，Hexo涨6%，Tilray涨4.95%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACB\">奥罗拉大麻公司</a>涨3%，Sundial Grower涨2.12%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderna</a>盘前涨1.51%，据报道，Moderna向美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)申请全面批准旗下疫苗加强针，目前FDA只允许高危或免疫功能低下的人群接种Moderna加强针。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">Palo Alto Networks</a>盘前涨超4%，季度业绩超华尔街预期，小幅上调全年订单额和营收预期，但没有上调盈利预期。</p>\n<p>在线奢侈品零售商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FTCH\">Farfetch Ltd</a>盘前大跌22%。周四美股盘后，Farfetch公佈2021财年Q3业绩报告。报告显示，公司当季营收为5.83亿美元，低于市场预期，上年同期为4.38亿美元；税后利润7.69亿美元，上年同期亏损5.37亿美元；经调整后每股亏损0.14美元，上年同期亏损0.17美元。</p>\n<p>【<b>大宗商品】</b></p>\n<p>国际油价大跌。截至发稿，WTI原油期货价格报75.78美元/桶，跌幅3.35%；布伦特原油期货价格报78.48美元/桶，跌幅3.40%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5a9907c40a01d7cd5283858e1628510\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"531\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>国际金价小幅震荡。美元指数收复前两个交易日全部跌势，限制了金价升幅，因随着通胀继续飙升和经济提速，美联储决策高层正在考虑更早加息的可能性。</p>\n<p>截至发稿，纽约市场黄金期货价格报1864.05美元/盎司，涨幅0.14%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b90d9d7a33007ec0255a59544aa82ebd\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"531\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前：欧美疫情重来？道指期货跌200点，中概股反弹</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n盘前：欧美疫情重来？道指期货跌200点，中概股反弹\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-19 20:18</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>11月19日（周五），美股三大指数期货涨跌不一，纳指期货走高。主要由于欧洲疫情再度恶化，拖累周期性股票，而科技股相对风险较低。</p>\n<p>奥地利今日直接宣布下周一（22日）起将实施全国封锁，并将于将于2022年2月1日起强制接种新冠疫苗。突发的封国消息令市场恐慌，此前欧洲多国只是加强了部分限制措施，而非封国。</p>\n<p>而欧洲最大经济体周四的新增确诊病例创历史新高，首次突破6.5万。波兰、匈牙利、等国新增确诊病例数也在近日陆续创下新高。英国也报告新增确诊病例超过4.6万例，法国报告新增确诊病例超2万例。</p>\n<p>目前，美国疫情虽未引发欧洲一样的封锁，但也不容乐观。根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学统计资料，截至北京时间2021年11月19日6时21分，过去24小时里，美国新增确诊病例110269例。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23e5d2824c8eb166acffd566bee8c301\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"252\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>【<b>中概股】</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>盘前跌0.76%。阿里二季度营收、盈利均不及预期，周四大跌超11%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>盘前涨1.59%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>盘前涨3.61%。此前恒指公司公布季检结果，京东、网易H股获纳入恒指成份股，二者在恒指中的权重分别为1.54%和0.64%， 所有变动将于2021年12月6日(星期一)起生效。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SY\">新氧</a>盘前涨2%。2021年第三季度，新氧总营收为人民币4.315亿元，同比增长20%。归属于新氧科技的净利润为人民币680万元，而上年同期净利润为人民币90万元。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YI\">1药网</a>盘前涨2.36%，第三季度公司营收达33.46亿元，同比增长42%。</p>\n<p>部分热门中概股在盘前反弹。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>涨1.33%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>涨1.05%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>涨2.33%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DUO\">房多多</a>大跌14%。第三季度营收环比下降57.8%至1.692亿元人民币(2630万美元)，逊于公司自身预期；不按美国公认会计准则计，净亏损3.344亿元人民币(5330万美元)，环比扩大。</p>\n<p>【<b>重要美股】</b></p>\n<p>“电车新贵”盘前涨跌不一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">Rivian Automotive Inc</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group Inc</a>跌超1%。而老“王者”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>盘前微涨0.57%。</p>\n<p>美股工业大麻板块盘前上扬，Hexo涨6%，Tilray涨4.95%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACB\">奥罗拉大麻公司</a>涨3%，Sundial Grower涨2.12%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderna</a>盘前涨1.51%，据报道，Moderna向美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)申请全面批准旗下疫苗加强针，目前FDA只允许高危或免疫功能低下的人群接种Moderna加强针。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">Palo Alto Networks</a>盘前涨超4%，季度业绩超华尔街预期，小幅上调全年订单额和营收预期，但没有上调盈利预期。</p>\n<p>在线奢侈品零售商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FTCH\">Farfetch Ltd</a>盘前大跌22%。周四美股盘后，Farfetch公佈2021财年Q3业绩报告。报告显示，公司当季营收为5.83亿美元，低于市场预期，上年同期为4.38亿美元；税后利润7.69亿美元，上年同期亏损5.37亿美元；经调整后每股亏损0.14美元，上年同期亏损0.17美元。</p>\n<p>【<b>大宗商品】</b></p>\n<p>国际油价大跌。截至发稿，WTI原油期货价格报75.78美元/桶，跌幅3.35%；布伦特原油期货价格报78.48美元/桶，跌幅3.40%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5a9907c40a01d7cd5283858e1628510\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"531\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>国际金价小幅震荡。美元指数收复前两个交易日全部跌势，限制了金价升幅，因随着通胀继续飙升和经济提速，美联储决策高层正在考虑更早加息的可能性。</p>\n<p>截至发稿，纽约市场黄金期货价格报1864.05美元/盎司，涨幅0.14%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b90d9d7a33007ec0255a59544aa82ebd\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"531\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120958755","content_text":"11月19日（周五），美股三大指数期货涨跌不一，纳指期货走高。主要由于欧洲疫情再度恶化，拖累周期性股票，而科技股相对风险较低。\n奥地利今日直接宣布下周一（22日）起将实施全国封锁，并将于将于2022年2月1日起强制接种新冠疫苗。突发的封国消息令市场恐慌，此前欧洲多国只是加强了部分限制措施，而非封国。\n而欧洲最大经济体周四的新增确诊病例创历史新高，首次突破6.5万。波兰、匈牙利、等国新增确诊病例数也在近日陆续创下新高。英国也报告新增确诊病例超过4.6万例，法国报告新增确诊病例超2万例。\n目前，美国疫情虽未引发欧洲一样的封锁，但也不容乐观。根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学统计资料，截至北京时间2021年11月19日6时21分，过去24小时里，美国新增确诊病例110269例。\n\n【中概股】\n阿里巴巴盘前跌0.76%。阿里二季度营收、盈利均不及预期，周四大跌超11%。\n京东盘前涨1.59%，网易盘前涨3.61%。此前恒指公司公布季检结果，京东、网易H股获纳入恒指成份股，二者在恒指中的权重分别为1.54%和0.64%， 所有变动将于2021年12月6日(星期一)起生效。\n新氧盘前涨2%。2021年第三季度，新氧总营收为人民币4.315亿元，同比增长20%。归属于新氧科技的净利润为人民币680万元，而上年同期净利润为人民币90万元。\n1药网盘前涨2.36%，第三季度公司营收达33.46亿元，同比增长42%。\n部分热门中概股在盘前反弹。哔哩哔哩涨1.33%，腾讯音乐涨1.05%，贝壳涨2.33%。\n房多多大跌14%。第三季度营收环比下降57.8%至1.692亿元人民币(2630万美元)，逊于公司自身预期；不按美国公认会计准则计，净亏损3.344亿元人民币(5330万美元)，环比扩大。\n【重要美股】\n“电车新贵”盘前涨跌不一，Rivian Automotive Inc涨超3%，Lucid Group Inc跌超1%。而老“王者”特斯拉盘前微涨0.57%。\n美股工业大麻板块盘前上扬，Hexo涨6%，Tilray涨4.95%，奥罗拉大麻公司涨3%，Sundial Grower涨2.12%。\nModerna盘前涨1.51%，据报道，Moderna向美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)申请全面批准旗下疫苗加强针，目前FDA只允许高危或免疫功能低下的人群接种Moderna加强针。\nPalo Alto Networks盘前涨超4%，季度业绩超华尔街预期，小幅上调全年订单额和营收预期，但没有上调盈利预期。\n在线奢侈品零售商Farfetch Ltd盘前大跌22%。周四美股盘后，Farfetch公佈2021财年Q3业绩报告。报告显示，公司当季营收为5.83亿美元，低于市场预期，上年同期为4.38亿美元；税后利润7.69亿美元，上年同期亏损5.37亿美元；经调整后每股亏损0.14美元，上年同期亏损0.17美元。\n【大宗商品】\n国际油价大跌。截至发稿，WTI原油期货价格报75.78美元/桶，跌幅3.35%；布伦特原油期货价格报78.48美元/桶，跌幅3.40%。\n\n国际金价小幅震荡。美元指数收复前两个交易日全部跌势，限制了金价升幅，因随着通胀继续飙升和经济提速，美联储决策高层正在考虑更早加息的可能性。\n截至发稿，纽约市场黄金期货价格报1864.05美元/盎司，涨幅0.14%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871159458,"gmtCreate":1637040040582,"gmtModify":1637040040688,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"阅","listText":"阅","text":"阅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871159458","repostId":"1139856601","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871159634,"gmtCreate":1637039982459,"gmtModify":1637039982528,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read&nbsp;","listText":"Good read&nbsp;","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871159634","repostId":"2183079091","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873479255,"gmtCreate":1636982312323,"gmtModify":1636982786804,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$星巴克(SBUX)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"<a 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09:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"马斯克于11月12日卖出120万股特斯拉股票","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119009229","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"11月13日，美国证交会披露的文件显示，12日马斯克进一步卖出120万股特斯拉股票。截至目前，马斯克自11月8日以来累计出售大约634万股特斯拉股票。此前马斯克在推特上承诺出售其持有的10%特斯拉股票","content":"<p>11月13日，美国证交会披露的文件显示，12日马斯克进一步卖出120万股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>股票。截至目前，马斯克自11月8日以来累计出售大约634万股特斯拉股票。此前马斯克在推特上承诺出售其持有的10%特斯拉股票，即1705万股，那么目前马斯克累计售出的股票仅占其承诺的37.1%，还需出售至少1070万股特斯拉股票。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f87e31394db7101f95cae3637524949\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"776\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8513b22845dd09d5b62a4380a7c9c91\" tg-width=\"1868\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>马斯克于11月12日卖出120万股特斯拉股票</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n马斯克于11月12日卖出120万股特斯拉股票\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-13 09:32</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>11月13日，美国证交会披露的文件显示，12日马斯克进一步卖出120万股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>股票。截至目前，马斯克自11月8日以来累计出售大约634万股特斯拉股票。此前马斯克在推特上承诺出售其持有的10%特斯拉股票，即1705万股，那么目前马斯克累计售出的股票仅占其承诺的37.1%，还需出售至少1070万股特斯拉股票。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f87e31394db7101f95cae3637524949\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"776\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8513b22845dd09d5b62a4380a7c9c91\" tg-width=\"1868\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8350896f4f33c86bc28f200b67ab82b4","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119009229","content_text":"11月13日，美国证交会披露的文件显示，12日马斯克进一步卖出120万股特斯拉股票。截至目前，马斯克自11月8日以来累计出售大约634万股特斯拉股票。此前马斯克在推特上承诺出售其持有的10%特斯拉股票，即1705万股，那么目前马斯克累计售出的股票仅占其承诺的37.1%，还需出售至少1070万股特斯拉股票。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879676258,"gmtCreate":1636724496711,"gmtModify":1636724496805,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"通货膨胀 [回头]&nbsp;","listText":"通货膨胀 [回头]&nbsp;","text":"通货膨胀 [回头]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879676258","repostId":"2182093443","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2182093443","pubTimestamp":1636697812,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2182093443?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-12 14:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国将会“日本化”？前财长萨默斯炮轰美联储","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2182093443","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"萨默斯表示，当前美联储的放水规模是2008年金融危机后的5-10倍，这会使美国经济回归长期停滞状态，通货膨胀上行风险加大。","content":"<p>11月10日，美国前财长拉里 萨默斯（Larry Summers）在伦敦政治经济学院（LSE）举行的演讲中，<b>对美联储宽松的货币政策发出猛烈抨击，并对通胀上行风险发出警告。同时，萨默斯预计，未来若干年，全球金融市场都将在经济缓慢增长与实际利率走低的过程中表现挣扎。</b></p>\n<p>在演讲中，萨默斯表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “当前美联储的放水规模是2008年金融危机后的5-10倍，如此大规模的财政刺激措施以及非同寻常的货币政策，使得从市场价格反映的情况看，经济将回归长期停滞状态。换种说法描述这个情况便是，日本化。”\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>“日本化”的第一表征为流动性陷阱的出现，这会导致货币政策的失灵。</b>这一词语经常被经济学家拿来<b>描述经济长期停滞和通货紧缩</b>的情况，通常伴随着<b>高失业率、实际利率接近于零、经济活动疲软以及央行刺激措施（包括量化宽松）</b>等表现。</p>\n<p>此前，在接受《国际经济》杂志的一次采访中，萨默斯就已对鲍威尔领导的美联储表达过不满，对美联储为了实现政府政策目标而延长宽松的货币政策，忽视通胀管理这一情况表达了强烈谴责。他表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “如今的美联储总是在讨论一些与通货膨胀或者失业无关的挑战，如气候变化等。这些<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">中央银行</a>的官员们拒绝采取措施，先发制人地对通胀进行管理，他们只知道等待，什么事情也不做，眼看着如今通胀发生。”\n</blockquote>\n<h2>萨默斯的警告</h2>\n<p>早在2013年，萨默斯就曾对如今的情况发出预警。他表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “在金融危机的几年后，我得出了一个结论，工业化国家的主要问题之一将是储蓄过剩和投资不足”\n</blockquote>\n<p>同时，他解释道：<b>这种情况的发生将会导致极低的实际利率、经济低迷、高杠杆和资产价格膨胀</b>，<b>而极低的借贷成本又将增加另一场金融危机的风险。</b></p>\n<p>萨默斯称，2013年之后的情况也印证了他的假设。此后几年美国预算赤字大幅增加，利率大幅下降，资产价格远高于预期，然而增长却远低于预期。</p>\n<p>同时，<b>他还警告了因实际利率过低造成的资产泡沫和资本配置不当风险</b>：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “极低的利率为僵尸企业加杠杆和苟延残喘提供了极大的方便，也为资产泡沫的延续奠定了基础。现在我们就已经看到了很多投机风险的证据，极低或者负的实际利率是很有问题的。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>（华尔街见闻注：极低的实际利率使得借贷成本大幅降低甚至为负，会使得市场上充满大量投机性的“热钱”。）</p>\n<h2>美联储不作为，通胀过高引发众大佬抨击</h2>\n<p>从美联储的职责来看，<b>其首要职责就是促使通胀维持在2%左右，然而，今年美国通胀居高不下</b>。</p>\n<p>华尔街见闻此前提及，10月通胀CPI同比大涨6.2%，创31年以来新高；另一边，于2002年被美联储采纳为衡量通货膨胀的主要指标的核心PCE物价指数，在今年9月较去年同期上升3.6%，也位于近30年最高位。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34993af32ad8d03aa4f35d42235d9468\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>此前，美联储将通胀定性为“暂时的”，随后，由于美国通胀压力无法自行消解，美联储主席鲍威尔将对通胀的描述改为“令人沮丧的”。</p>\n<p>对于美联储主席鲍威尔对通胀的“不作为”的行为，众多大佬纷纷表达了不满。</p>\n<p>11月11日，<b>桥水基金的创始人 Ray Dalio 便向市场敲响了警钟</b>，在美国通胀创1990年以来新高之际他警告称：投资组合的价值增长并不真实地意味着财富的增长。人们误以为，资产价格上涨意味着自己正变得富裕，他们忽视了自己的购买力正在被（通胀）所侵蚀。他认为，认为，本轮通货膨胀的产生很简单，就是源于政府印钱。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “此时 1) 政府印制了更多的钱，2) 人们得到了更多的钱，3) 产生了更多的购买，从而导致了更多的通货膨胀。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>此前，<b>亚特兰大联储主席 Raphael Bostic</b> 就对美联储将通胀定性为“暂时性的”的说法颇为不满，他表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “用‘暂时性’来描述美国的通胀是一句脏话。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>绿光基金创始人 <b>David Einhorn</b> 就认为美联储没有胆量对抗通胀的原因是：鲍威尔没有胆量面对对抗通胀可能带来的新一轮衰退。对此，在10月20日，他猛烈地抨击到：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “鲍威尔对通货膨胀毫无作为，他不仅没有努力对抗通胀，相反，他一直坚持制造通胀的政策。”\n</blockquote>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国将会“日本化”？前财长萨默斯炮轰美联储</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国将会“日本化”？前财长萨默斯炮轰美联储\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-12 14:16 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3644757><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>11月10日，美国前财长拉里 萨默斯（Larry Summers）在伦敦政治经济学院（LSE）举行的演讲中，对美联储宽松的货币政策发出猛烈抨击，并对通胀上行风险发出警告。同时，萨默斯预计，未来若干年，全球金融市场都将在经济缓慢增长与实际利率走低的过程中表现挣扎。\n在演讲中，萨默斯表示：\n\n “当前美联储的放水规模是2008年金融危机后的5-10倍，如此大规模的财政刺激措施以及非同寻常的货币政策，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3644757\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3644757","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2182093443","content_text":"11月10日，美国前财长拉里 萨默斯（Larry Summers）在伦敦政治经济学院（LSE）举行的演讲中，对美联储宽松的货币政策发出猛烈抨击，并对通胀上行风险发出警告。同时，萨默斯预计，未来若干年，全球金融市场都将在经济缓慢增长与实际利率走低的过程中表现挣扎。\n在演讲中，萨默斯表示：\n\n “当前美联储的放水规模是2008年金融危机后的5-10倍，如此大规模的财政刺激措施以及非同寻常的货币政策，使得从市场价格反映的情况看，经济将回归长期停滞状态。换种说法描述这个情况便是，日本化。”\n\n“日本化”的第一表征为流动性陷阱的出现，这会导致货币政策的失灵。这一词语经常被经济学家拿来描述经济长期停滞和通货紧缩的情况，通常伴随着高失业率、实际利率接近于零、经济活动疲软以及央行刺激措施（包括量化宽松）等表现。\n此前，在接受《国际经济》杂志的一次采访中，萨默斯就已对鲍威尔领导的美联储表达过不满，对美联储为了实现政府政策目标而延长宽松的货币政策，忽视通胀管理这一情况表达了强烈谴责。他表示：\n\n “如今的美联储总是在讨论一些与通货膨胀或者失业无关的挑战，如气候变化等。这些中央银行的官员们拒绝采取措施，先发制人地对通胀进行管理，他们只知道等待，什么事情也不做，眼看着如今通胀发生。”\n\n萨默斯的警告\n早在2013年，萨默斯就曾对如今的情况发出预警。他表示：\n\n “在金融危机的几年后，我得出了一个结论，工业化国家的主要问题之一将是储蓄过剩和投资不足”\n\n同时，他解释道：这种情况的发生将会导致极低的实际利率、经济低迷、高杠杆和资产价格膨胀，而极低的借贷成本又将增加另一场金融危机的风险。\n萨默斯称，2013年之后的情况也印证了他的假设。此后几年美国预算赤字大幅增加，利率大幅下降，资产价格远高于预期，然而增长却远低于预期。\n同时，他还警告了因实际利率过低造成的资产泡沫和资本配置不当风险：\n\n “极低的利率为僵尸企业加杠杆和苟延残喘提供了极大的方便，也为资产泡沫的延续奠定了基础。现在我们就已经看到了很多投机风险的证据，极低或者负的实际利率是很有问题的。”\n\n（华尔街见闻注：极低的实际利率使得借贷成本大幅降低甚至为负，会使得市场上充满大量投机性的“热钱”。）\n美联储不作为，通胀过高引发众大佬抨击\n从美联储的职责来看，其首要职责就是促使通胀维持在2%左右，然而，今年美国通胀居高不下。\n华尔街见闻此前提及，10月通胀CPI同比大涨6.2%，创31年以来新高；另一边，于2002年被美联储采纳为衡量通货膨胀的主要指标的核心PCE物价指数，在今年9月较去年同期上升3.6%，也位于近30年最高位。\n\n此前，美联储将通胀定性为“暂时的”，随后，由于美国通胀压力无法自行消解，美联储主席鲍威尔将对通胀的描述改为“令人沮丧的”。\n对于美联储主席鲍威尔对通胀的“不作为”的行为，众多大佬纷纷表达了不满。\n11月11日，桥水基金的创始人 Ray Dalio 便向市场敲响了警钟，在美国通胀创1990年以来新高之际他警告称：投资组合的价值增长并不真实地意味着财富的增长。人们误以为，资产价格上涨意味着自己正变得富裕，他们忽视了自己的购买力正在被（通胀）所侵蚀。他认为，认为，本轮通货膨胀的产生很简单，就是源于政府印钱。\n\n “此时 1) 政府印制了更多的钱，2) 人们得到了更多的钱，3) 产生了更多的购买，从而导致了更多的通货膨胀。”\n\n此前，亚特兰大联储主席 Raphael Bostic 就对美联储将通胀定性为“暂时性的”的说法颇为不满，他表示：\n\n “用‘暂时性’来描述美国的通胀是一句脏话。”\n\n绿光基金创始人 David Einhorn 就认为美联储没有胆量对抗通胀的原因是：鲍威尔没有胆量面对对抗通胀可能带来的新一轮衰退。对此，在10月20日，他猛烈地抨击到：\n\n “鲍威尔对通货膨胀毫无作为，他不仅没有努力对抗通胀，相反，他一直坚持制造通胀的政策。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":414,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879145971,"gmtCreate":1636695575429,"gmtModify":1636695620364,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$星巴克(SBUX)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$星巴克(SBUX)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;","text":"$星巴克(SBUX)$[开心]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f77744aae122c499bda340615d230e6","width":"750","height":"1174"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879145971","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":870533214,"gmtCreate":1636631424532,"gmtModify":1636631692058,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/A17U.SI\">$腾飞房地产信托(A17U.SI)$</a>For coin [微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/A17U.SI\">$腾飞房地产信托(A17U.SI)$</a>For coin [微笑]&nbsp;","text":"$腾飞房地产信托(A17U.SI)$For coin [微笑]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8530027880ac7c179ad8b97e703d9768","width":"750","height":"1935"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870533214","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":870539754,"gmtCreate":1636631319801,"gmtModify":1636631319995,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$星巴克(SBUX)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$星巴克(SBUX)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;","text":"$星巴克(SBUX)$[开心]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/257e4bd2ea7207f7adc66bc6c0f7a780","width":"750","height":"1174"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870539754","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":844598362,"gmtCreate":1636437226446,"gmtModify":1636437226728,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Y92.SI\">$泰国酿酒(Y92.SI)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Y92.SI\">$泰国酿酒(Y92.SI)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;","text":"$泰国酿酒(Y92.SI)$[开心]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ea4e951f8a8d9a3fe5b85a4f0abf9a","width":"750","height":"1174"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844598362","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":816589707,"gmtCreate":1630507218609,"gmtModify":1631889990519,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No wonder&nbsp;","listText":"No wonder&nbsp;","text":"No wonder","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816589707","repostId":"1166477679","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166477679","pubTimestamp":1630506475,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166477679?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-01 22:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Lucid Stock is Tanking. The Reason Has Nothing to Do With EV Manufacturing.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166477679","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"Investors in Lucid are set to have one of the difficult days that often happen among start-up electr","content":"<p>Investors in&nbsp;Lucid&nbsp;are set to have one of the difficult days that often happen among start-up electric-vehicle companies. The share were down 16% in early trading, while the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was up 0.2% and the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;was flat..</p>\n<p>Life can be tough for investors in&nbsp;these companies.So many things can move the stock price significantly. Many of them have nothing to do with&nbsp;corporate fundamentals.</p>\n<p>The issue Wednesday is the expiration of a stock-selling prohibition for investors inLucid’s PIPE, or private investment in public equity. The PIPE lockup expired Wednesday.</p>\n<p>Lucid became a publicly traded company, and raised more than $4 billion, by merging with a special-purpose acquisition company, or SPAC. PIPEs are a common feature of SPAC mergers. The Lucid PIPE raised about $2.5 billion of the total $4.4 billion the company received.</p>\n<p>The quality of the PIPE investors–they can be large institutions–often improves investors’ perceptions about a SPAC merger. Lucid’s PIPE investors included accounts managed by&nbsp;BlackRock(BLK), Fidelity Management &amp; Research,Franklin Templeton,Neuberger Berman, Wellington Management, and others.</p>\n<p>PIPE investors own about 10% of the stock, based on recent filings. The PIPE stock was sold at about $15 a share, so those investors are sitting on nice gains. Lucid stock was at $16.84 in early trading.</p>\n<p>Anytime a large block of stock becomes available to sell, shares can be weak. Investors, and traders, look to get out ahead of any selling by large shareholders. It can create a situation, where the fear of selling creates actual selling.</p>\n<p>None of the PIPE shareholders have to sell, of course. They simply can sell now. Lucid wasn’t immediately available to comment on the PIPE, investors’ plans, or the lockup expiration.</p>\n<p>Coming into Wednesday, Lucid stock was down about 7% over the past three months. The S&amp;P has gained about 8% over the same span.</p>\n<p>Other EV stocks have been weak too. The semiconductor shortage, which is constraining global auto production, together with a downbeat forecast from&nbsp;General Motors(GM) regarding its&nbsp;second-half 2021earnings, seem to have taken some of the wind out of the sails of the sector.</p>\n<p>Lucid plans to&nbsp;start making&nbsp;and delivering its first EV, the Lucid Air, later in 2021.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lucid Stock is Tanking. The Reason Has Nothing to Do With EV Manufacturing.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLucid Stock is Tanking. The Reason Has Nothing to Do With EV Manufacturing.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-01 22:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/lucid-stock-falls-pipe-sales-lockup-51630504671?mod=newsviewer_click><strong>Marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors in Lucid are set to have one of the difficult days that often happen among start-up electric-vehicle companies. The share were down 16% in early trading, while the S&P 500 was up 0.2% and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/lucid-stock-falls-pipe-sales-lockup-51630504671?mod=newsviewer_click\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LCID":"Lucid Group Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/lucid-stock-falls-pipe-sales-lockup-51630504671?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1166477679","content_text":"Investors in Lucid are set to have one of the difficult days that often happen among start-up electric-vehicle companies. The share were down 16% in early trading, while the S&P 500 was up 0.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat..\nLife can be tough for investors in these companies.So many things can move the stock price significantly. Many of them have nothing to do with corporate fundamentals.\nThe issue Wednesday is the expiration of a stock-selling prohibition for investors inLucid’s PIPE, or private investment in public equity. The PIPE lockup expired Wednesday.\nLucid became a publicly traded company, and raised more than $4 billion, by merging with a special-purpose acquisition company, or SPAC. PIPEs are a common feature of SPAC mergers. The Lucid PIPE raised about $2.5 billion of the total $4.4 billion the company received.\nThe quality of the PIPE investors–they can be large institutions–often improves investors’ perceptions about a SPAC merger. Lucid’s PIPE investors included accounts managed by BlackRock(BLK), Fidelity Management & Research,Franklin Templeton,Neuberger Berman, Wellington Management, and others.\nPIPE investors own about 10% of the stock, based on recent filings. The PIPE stock was sold at about $15 a share, so those investors are sitting on nice gains. Lucid stock was at $16.84 in early trading.\nAnytime a large block of stock becomes available to sell, shares can be weak. Investors, and traders, look to get out ahead of any selling by large shareholders. It can create a situation, where the fear of selling creates actual selling.\nNone of the PIPE shareholders have to sell, of course. They simply can sell now. Lucid wasn’t immediately available to comment on the PIPE, investors’ plans, or the lockup expiration.\nComing into Wednesday, Lucid stock was down about 7% over the past three months. The S&P has gained about 8% over the same span.\nOther EV stocks have been weak too. The semiconductor shortage, which is constraining global auto production, together with a downbeat forecast from General Motors(GM) regarding its second-half 2021earnings, seem to have taken some of the wind out of the sails of the sector.\nLucid plans to start making and delivering its first EV, the Lucid Air, later in 2021.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":113,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164614346,"gmtCreate":1624200279685,"gmtModify":1634009555577,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read&nbsp;","listText":"Good read&nbsp;","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164614346","repostId":"1126454279","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126454279","pubTimestamp":1624151746,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126454279?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-20 09:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Stock Market Crash Is Coming: 5 High-Conviction Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist When It Happens","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126454279","media":"fool","summary":"It might be the last thing you want to hear, but it's the truth:A stock market crash is inevitable.\n","content":"<p>It might be the last thing you want to hear, but it's the truth:A stock market crash is inevitable.</p>\n<p>Since the March 23, 2020 bottom, investors have enjoyed a historically strong bounce-back rally -- the widely followed<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)has gained an impressive 90%. But both history and valuation metrics unequivocally suggest that a big drop is upcoming for the stock market.</p>\n<p><b>History is pretty clear that trouble lies ahead</b></p>\n<p>For example, there have beenone or two double-digit percentage declineswithin the three years following a bottom in each of the previous eight bear markets prior to the coronavirus crash (i.e., dating back to 1960). Although bull markets tend to last years, rebounds from a bear market are never this smooth. We're nearly 15 months past the March 2020 bear-market bottom in the S&amp;P 500 and have yet to see anything close to a double-digit correction.</p>\n<p>To add to this point, data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research shows that there have been 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 over the past 71 years. That's a crash or correction, on average,every 1.87 years. Though the market doesn't adhere to averages, it does give a general sense of when to expect these hiccups.</p>\n<p>On a valuation basis, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is a waving red flag. The S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E -- a measure of inflation-adjusted earnings over the previous 10 years -- almost hit 38 earlier this week. That more than doubles its 151-year average, and it's the highest level in nearly two decades. The previous four times the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30 during a bull market rally, the indexsubsequently declined by a minimum of 20%.</p>\n<p>Make no mistake about it -- a stock market crash is coming.</p>\n<p>Every crash or correction is an opportunity for patient investors to make money</p>\n<p>However, a crash is no reason to duck and cover. While history may signal trouble ahead, it also tells us that each and every double-digit decline has been a buying opportunity. Eventually, every big drop in the major indexes is erased by a bull-market rally. When the next crash does occur, the following five high-conviction stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.</p>\n<p><b>CrowdStrike Holdings</b></p>\n<p>Cybersecurity is projected to beone of the safest double-digit growth trendsthis decade. No matter the size of the business or the state of the U.S./global economy, protecting enterprise and consumer data is paramount. This means cloud-based cybersecurity stock<b>CrowdStrike Holdings</b>(NASDAQ:CRWD)can thrive in any environment.</p>\n<p>CrowdStrike's successderives from its cloud-native Falcon security platform. Because it's built in the cloud and relies on artificial intelligence, it's growing smarter at identifying and responding to threats all the time. It's currently overseeing 6 trillion events on a weekly basis, and it's far more cost-effective at protecting data than on-premise solutions.</p>\n<p>We can also look to the company's income statements to see clear-cut evidence that businesses favor CrowdStrike's cybersecurity platform. It's been retaining 98% of its clients, has seen existing clients spend 23% to 47% more on a year-over-year basis for the past 12 quarters, and recently reported that 64% of its customers have purchased at least four cloud module subscriptions. Scaling with its customers is CrowdStrike's ticket to big-time cash flow expansion.</p>\n<p><b>Facebook</b></p>\n<p>Brand-name businesses can make patient investors a fortune, and social media giant<b>Facebook</b>(NASDAQ:FB)is the perfect example.</p>\n<p>When the curtain closed on March, Facebook tallied 2.85 billion monthly active users (MAU) visiting its namesake site and an additional 600 million unique MAUs visiting WhatsApp or Instagram, which it also owns. All told, this equates to44% of the global populationinteracting with its owned sites each month. There's simply no social media platform businesses can go to get their message to a broader (or potentially targeted) audience, which is why Facebook ad-pricing power is so strong.</p>\n<p>But here's the kicker: Facebookhasn't even put the pedal to the metal. Although it's on track to generate more than $100 billion in advertising revenue in 2021, nearly all of these ad sales are coming from its namesake site and Instagram. WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger, which are two of the six most-visited social sites in the world, aren't being meaningfully monetized as of yet. Further, the company's Oculus virtual reality devices are still in the early stage of their growth. Suffice it to say, Facebook offers ample upside as its other operating segments are monetized and mature.</p>\n<p><b>NextEra Energy</b></p>\n<p>Another high-conviction stock to buy hand over fist the next time a crash or steep correction strikes is electric utility stock<b>NextEra Energy</b>(NYSE:NEE).</p>\n<p>Did I put you to sleep when I said \"electric utility stock?\" Electric utilities are traditionally known for their market-topping dividend yields and persistently low growth rates. But this doesn't describe NextEra Energy. NextEra has aggressively invested in renewable energy projects and is leading the country in solar and wind capacity. As a result of these investments, its electric generation costs have declined and its compound annual growth ratehas consistently been in the high single digitsfor more than a decade. It also doesn't hurt that NextEra is front-running any potential green-energy legislation that might come out of Washington.</p>\n<p>In addition to growth rates that are well above the sector average, NextEra still benefits from the predictability of energy demand. For instance, its regulated utilities (i.e., those not powered by renewable energy) require approval from state utility commissions before price hikes can be passed along to households. This might sound like an inconvenience, but it's actually great news. It means NextEra won't be exposed to potentially volatile wholesale pricing.</p>\n<p><b>Visa</b></p>\n<p>When the next stock market crash arrives, payment processing kingpin<b>Visa</b>(NYSE:V)is a winning company to confidently buy hand over fist. It's also another brand-name company thatcan still make its shareholders a fortune.</p>\n<p>Buying into the Visa growth story is a simple numbers game. Visa grows its revenue and profits when consumers and businesses are spending more. This happens when the U.S. and global economy are expanding. Although contractions and recessions are an inevitable part of the economic cycle, they tend to be short-lived. Meanwhile, periods of economic expansion are almost always measured in years. Buying into Visa during these short-lived crashes or corrections should allow long-term investors to be handsomely rewarded by this numbers game.</p>\n<p>The other interesting thing about Visa is thatit's shunned becoming a lender. You'd think that Visa could generate big bucks from interest income and fees by lending during these long-lived periods of expansion. But lending would also expose Visa to the credit delinquencies that arise during recessions. Operating solely as a payment processor means not having to set aside cash to cover delinquencies. It's why Visa rebounds so much faster than most financial stocks following a recession.</p>\n<p><b>Amazon</b></p>\n<p>Lastly (andwho couldn't see this coming?), investors should take any discount they can get during a crash on e-commerce behemoth<b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ:AMZN).</p>\n<p>Amazon's online marketplace has proved virtually unstoppable for well over a decade. An April 2021 report from eMarketer pegged the company's share of U.S. online sales at 40.4%. That more than quintuples its next-closest competitor and effectively solidifies Amazon as the go-to source for online shopping in the U.S.</p>\n<p>What about those pesky low retail margins, you ask? Amazon has signed up more than 200 million people globally to a Prime membership. The fees collected from Prime members help to offset some of the company's retail-based margin weakness. Prime members are extremely loyal to the Amazon ecosystem and spend far more than non-members, too.</p>\n<p>But it's Amazon's cloud infrastructure segmentthat's the superstar. Amazon Web Services (AWS) brings in around one-eighth of the company's total sales but accounts for well over half its operating income. Since cloud margins are superior to retail and advertising margins, AWS is the company's key to explosive cash flow growth this decade.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Stock Market Crash Is Coming: 5 High-Conviction Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist When It Happens</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Stock Market Crash Is Coming: 5 High-Conviction Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist When It Happens\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-20 09:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/19/stock-market-crash-coming-5-high-conviction-stocks/><strong>fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It might be the last thing you want to hear, but it's the truth:A stock market crash is inevitable.\nSince the March 23, 2020 bottom, investors have enjoyed a historically strong bounce-back rally -- ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/19/stock-market-crash-coming-5-high-conviction-stocks/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.","NEP":"Nextera Energy Partners","V":"Visa","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/19/stock-market-crash-coming-5-high-conviction-stocks/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126454279","content_text":"It might be the last thing you want to hear, but it's the truth:A stock market crash is inevitable.\nSince the March 23, 2020 bottom, investors have enjoyed a historically strong bounce-back rally -- the widely followedS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)has gained an impressive 90%. But both history and valuation metrics unequivocally suggest that a big drop is upcoming for the stock market.\nHistory is pretty clear that trouble lies ahead\nFor example, there have beenone or two double-digit percentage declineswithin the three years following a bottom in each of the previous eight bear markets prior to the coronavirus crash (i.e., dating back to 1960). Although bull markets tend to last years, rebounds from a bear market are never this smooth. We're nearly 15 months past the March 2020 bear-market bottom in the S&P 500 and have yet to see anything close to a double-digit correction.\nTo add to this point, data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research shows that there have been 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 over the past 71 years. That's a crash or correction, on average,every 1.87 years. Though the market doesn't adhere to averages, it does give a general sense of when to expect these hiccups.\nOn a valuation basis, the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is a waving red flag. The S&P 500's Shiller P/E -- a measure of inflation-adjusted earnings over the previous 10 years -- almost hit 38 earlier this week. That more than doubles its 151-year average, and it's the highest level in nearly two decades. The previous four times the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30 during a bull market rally, the indexsubsequently declined by a minimum of 20%.\nMake no mistake about it -- a stock market crash is coming.\nEvery crash or correction is an opportunity for patient investors to make money\nHowever, a crash is no reason to duck and cover. While history may signal trouble ahead, it also tells us that each and every double-digit decline has been a buying opportunity. Eventually, every big drop in the major indexes is erased by a bull-market rally. When the next crash does occur, the following five high-conviction stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.\nCrowdStrike Holdings\nCybersecurity is projected to beone of the safest double-digit growth trendsthis decade. No matter the size of the business or the state of the U.S./global economy, protecting enterprise and consumer data is paramount. This means cloud-based cybersecurity stockCrowdStrike Holdings(NASDAQ:CRWD)can thrive in any environment.\nCrowdStrike's successderives from its cloud-native Falcon security platform. Because it's built in the cloud and relies on artificial intelligence, it's growing smarter at identifying and responding to threats all the time. It's currently overseeing 6 trillion events on a weekly basis, and it's far more cost-effective at protecting data than on-premise solutions.\nWe can also look to the company's income statements to see clear-cut evidence that businesses favor CrowdStrike's cybersecurity platform. It's been retaining 98% of its clients, has seen existing clients spend 23% to 47% more on a year-over-year basis for the past 12 quarters, and recently reported that 64% of its customers have purchased at least four cloud module subscriptions. Scaling with its customers is CrowdStrike's ticket to big-time cash flow expansion.\nFacebook\nBrand-name businesses can make patient investors a fortune, and social media giantFacebook(NASDAQ:FB)is the perfect example.\nWhen the curtain closed on March, Facebook tallied 2.85 billion monthly active users (MAU) visiting its namesake site and an additional 600 million unique MAUs visiting WhatsApp or Instagram, which it also owns. All told, this equates to44% of the global populationinteracting with its owned sites each month. There's simply no social media platform businesses can go to get their message to a broader (or potentially targeted) audience, which is why Facebook ad-pricing power is so strong.\nBut here's the kicker: Facebookhasn't even put the pedal to the metal. Although it's on track to generate more than $100 billion in advertising revenue in 2021, nearly all of these ad sales are coming from its namesake site and Instagram. WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger, which are two of the six most-visited social sites in the world, aren't being meaningfully monetized as of yet. Further, the company's Oculus virtual reality devices are still in the early stage of their growth. Suffice it to say, Facebook offers ample upside as its other operating segments are monetized and mature.\nNextEra Energy\nAnother high-conviction stock to buy hand over fist the next time a crash or steep correction strikes is electric utility stockNextEra Energy(NYSE:NEE).\nDid I put you to sleep when I said \"electric utility stock?\" Electric utilities are traditionally known for their market-topping dividend yields and persistently low growth rates. But this doesn't describe NextEra Energy. NextEra has aggressively invested in renewable energy projects and is leading the country in solar and wind capacity. As a result of these investments, its electric generation costs have declined and its compound annual growth ratehas consistently been in the high single digitsfor more than a decade. It also doesn't hurt that NextEra is front-running any potential green-energy legislation that might come out of Washington.\nIn addition to growth rates that are well above the sector average, NextEra still benefits from the predictability of energy demand. For instance, its regulated utilities (i.e., those not powered by renewable energy) require approval from state utility commissions before price hikes can be passed along to households. This might sound like an inconvenience, but it's actually great news. It means NextEra won't be exposed to potentially volatile wholesale pricing.\nVisa\nWhen the next stock market crash arrives, payment processing kingpinVisa(NYSE:V)is a winning company to confidently buy hand over fist. It's also another brand-name company thatcan still make its shareholders a fortune.\nBuying into the Visa growth story is a simple numbers game. Visa grows its revenue and profits when consumers and businesses are spending more. This happens when the U.S. and global economy are expanding. Although contractions and recessions are an inevitable part of the economic cycle, they tend to be short-lived. Meanwhile, periods of economic expansion are almost always measured in years. Buying into Visa during these short-lived crashes or corrections should allow long-term investors to be handsomely rewarded by this numbers game.\nThe other interesting thing about Visa is thatit's shunned becoming a lender. You'd think that Visa could generate big bucks from interest income and fees by lending during these long-lived periods of expansion. But lending would also expose Visa to the credit delinquencies that arise during recessions. Operating solely as a payment processor means not having to set aside cash to cover delinquencies. It's why Visa rebounds so much faster than most financial stocks following a recession.\nAmazon\nLastly (andwho couldn't see this coming?), investors should take any discount they can get during a crash on e-commerce behemothAmazon(NASDAQ:AMZN).\nAmazon's online marketplace has proved virtually unstoppable for well over a decade. An April 2021 report from eMarketer pegged the company's share of U.S. online sales at 40.4%. That more than quintuples its next-closest competitor and effectively solidifies Amazon as the go-to source for online shopping in the U.S.\nWhat about those pesky low retail margins, you ask? Amazon has signed up more than 200 million people globally to a Prime membership. The fees collected from Prime members help to offset some of the company's retail-based margin weakness. Prime members are extremely loyal to the Amazon ecosystem and spend far more than non-members, too.\nBut it's Amazon's cloud infrastructure segmentthat's the superstar. Amazon Web Services (AWS) brings in around one-eighth of the company's total sales but accounts for well over half its operating income. Since cloud margins are superior to retail and advertising margins, AWS is the company's key to explosive cash flow growth this decade.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133032715,"gmtCreate":1621666626337,"gmtModify":1634187247212,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133032715","repostId":"1108503848","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108503848","pubTimestamp":1621588268,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108503848?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-21 17:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Winning Stocks and 5 Losing Stocks to Watch Right Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108503848","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Even the losers from this past week are stocks to watch in the coming months and years\nSource: Shutt","content":"<p>Even the losers from this past week are stocks to watch in the coming months and years</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1b96841fd1fab78d26e207f9b18338\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"576\"><span>Source: Shutterstock</span></p>\n<p>Around this time last year, I wrote up a gallery of stocks to watch that had caught investor interest over a week’s worth of trading. In that example, the<b>S&amp;P 500</b>had gained 3.5% over the previous five days of trading.</p>\n<p>As a result, out of my 10 stocks to watch,seven were burning up the track&nbsp;while three were lagging the index.</p>\n<p>Now that we’re in 2021, I thought I would do the same thing.</p>\n<p>Only this time, I’ll find five winners and losers from the past five days of trading who’ve either outperformed or underperformed the index. For this article, I’ll use May 12 through May 18 (five days and a weekend) and limit the companies to stocks with market capitalizations of $10 billion or higher.</p>\n<p>If you’re wondering, the 10 stocks to watch from my article (both good and bad weekly performances) had lights-out returns over the past year.</p>\n<p>Between May 12 and May 18, the S&amp;P 500 had a total return of -0.6%. Based on that, here are my five winning stocks and five losing stocks to watch right now.</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>NortonLifeLock</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>NLOK</u></b>)</li>\n <li><b>Occidental Petroleum</b>(NYSE:<b><u>OXY</u></b>)</li>\n <li><b>Ulta Beauty</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>ULTA</u></b>)</li>\n <li><b>Royal Caribbean</b>(NYSE:<b><u>RCL</u></b>)</li>\n <li><b>Hershey</b>(NYSE:<b><u>HSY</u></b>)</li>\n <li><b>AT&amp;T</b>(NYSE:<b><u>T</u></b>)</li>\n <li><b>Lennar</b>(NYSE:<b><u>LEN</u></b>)</li>\n <li><b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>TSLA</u></b>)</li>\n <li><b>Chipotle Mexican Grill</b>(NYSE:<b><u>CMG</u></b>)</li>\n <li><b>MSCI</b>(NYSE:<b><u>MSCI</u></b>)</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>NortonLifeLock (NLOK)</b></p>\n<p><b>Five-day performance:</b>13.5%</p>\n<p>The cybersecurity software and services company got a nice boost on May 12 when BofA analyst Tal Liani upgraded NLOK stock to “buy” from “underperform.” More importantly, the analyst increased its target price by 58%, from&nbsp;$19 to $30. Currently trading below the target, it’s possible future quarterly results could push that higher.</p>\n<p>Liani believes that the consumer market, NortonLifeLock’s bread and butter, provides it with a long runway of growth. The company itself expects 2022 revenue growth of at least 8% and adjusted earnings per share of $1.70, which would be 60% higher year-over-year.</p>\n<p>“Management believes the consumer cybersecurity market is heavily underpenetrated, which leaves room for growing the subscriber base as well,” Liani wrote.“Lastly, international expansion is another key element, with international sales accounting for 30% of revenues, and management outlined a country-by-country strategy to address the remaining potential.”</p>\n<p>NortonLifeLock’s been on a strong run the past five years with an annualized total return of 18.8%. But it looks as though the next five could be equally rewarding for shareholders.</p>\n<p><b>Occidental Petroleum (OXY)</b></p>\n<p><b>Five-day performance:</b>5.6%</p>\n<p><i>Investor’s Business Daily</i>&nbsp;commented in early May that the Occidental corporate jet was&nbsp;spotted in Omaha&nbsp;days before Warren Buffett invested&nbsp;$10 billion&nbsp;in the oil company in 2019.</p>\n<p>At times in the past couple of years, I’m sure Buffett would have preferred the jet go almost anywhere else except Omaha, as the price of oil tanked. As part of his $10 billion preferred-share investment, Buffett got&nbsp;83.86 million warrants&nbsp;to buy OXY stock at $59.62.</p>\n<p>Starting in 2029, Occidental can redeem the 8% preferreds at a redemption price equal to 105% of the liquidation preference plus any unpaid dividends. The dividends Buffett was paid in 2020 were made in Oxy stock. The Oracle of Omaha&nbsp;sold those shares&nbsp;in August 2020.</p>\n<p>Thanks to a rebound in oil prices, Occidental’s got a total return of almost 72% over the past year, significantly higher than the U.S. markets as a whole. However, as I write this, OXY stock is still trading at less than half Buffett’s exercise price.</p>\n<p>He’s got until one year after Occidental were to redeem its preferred shares. That means at least another nine years to move into the money.</p>\n<p><b>Ulta Beauty (ULTA)</b></p>\n<p><b>Five-day performance:</b>4.7%</p>\n<p>The specialty retailer of cosmetics, skin and hair care products, fragrances, and a provider of beauty salon services, reports its&nbsp;Q1 2021 results&nbsp;on May 27. The 27 analysts who cover ULTA estimate&nbsp;$1.90 per share&nbsp;on the bottom line and $1.63 billion in sales on the top line. Both will be marked improvements from a year ago when Covid-19 stay-at-home orders were kicking in.</p>\n<p>In mid-May, JPMorgan analysts named Ulta to its list of&nbsp;favorite retail stocks. The bank gives ULTA an overweight rating and has it on its Analyst Focus List. Interestingly,<b>Target</b>(NYSE:<b><u>TGT</u></b>) is also a favorite of JPM due to its inventory control and overall strength during the important back-to-school season.</p>\n<p>In November, Ulta announced that it would open&nbsp;1,000-square-foot shops&nbsp;within Target. They will be staffed by the discount retailer with training from Ulta.</p>\n<p>Both Ulta CEO Mary Dillon and Target CEO Brian Cornell believe the arrangement will help drive traffic to both stores. Two of the best CEOs in retail, this partnership is sure to be a success, making ULTA one of our stocks to watch.</p>\n<p><b>Royal Caribbean (RCL)</b></p>\n<p><b>Five-day performance:</b>4.6%</p>\n<p>It wasn’t just Royal Caribbean that had a good five days of trading. All of the cruise operators did.<b>Carnival</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:<b><u>CCL</u></b>) and&nbsp;<b>Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:<b><u>NCLH</u></b>) were up 8.2% and 5.7%, respectively. I happen to prefer RCL over the other two.</p>\n<p>The cruise operator got&nbsp;excellent news&nbsp;in late April when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention clarified its position on cruise ships setting sail from American ports of call this summer. Royal Caribbean figures it can restart its U.S. cruise departures in mid-July.</p>\n<p>Considering it lost&nbsp;$1.1 billion&nbsp;in its latest quarter, the news couldn’t have come at a better time. Plus, its balance sheet is currently bolstered by more than $5 billion in cash. As cruise-goers appear to be ready to spend more on cruises than in past years, they should be able to get back to pre-Covid revenues by the end of 2022, perhaps earlier.</p>\n<p>In 2020, while RCL was getting pummeled, I continued to say it was&nbsp;a long-term winner. Up almost double in the past year, RCL should top $100 before the end of 2021.</p>\n<p><b>Hershey (HSY)</b></p>\n<p><b>Five-day performance:</b>2.3%</p>\n<p>I know what you’re thinking. When considering stocks to watch, why include a company that gained a measly 2.3% over the past five days? Especially when there were 46 stocks ($10 billion market cap or higher) with a better return?</p>\n<p>Simple. I like the job CEO Michele Buck has done since&nbsp;taking the top job&nbsp;in March 2017. It’s why I included Hershey on my October 2020&nbsp;list of companies&nbsp;with top-notch women CEOs. Since that article, HSY stock is up 18% since.</p>\n<p>&nbsp;In late April, Buck said that she expects&nbsp;Halloween to be very strong&nbsp;this coming October as vaccinations make it possible for trick-or-treaters to get out in the evening air to collect their annual haul of candy and chocolate. I, for one, will be loading up this year.</p>\n<p>“Consumers are participating in seasons, they are telling us they’re doing more movie nights at home, they’re making more s’mores at home [and] at the same time, we’re seeing growth in our food service and our own retail businesses, which are away from home,” Buck told<i>CNBC.</i></p>\n<p>As a result, HSY sees higher earnings and sales in 2021 than originally expected. It’s good to know consumers haven’t lost their taste for sweets during the pandemic.</p>\n<p><b>AT&amp;T</b><b>(T)</b></p>\n<p><b>Five-day performance:</b>-8.4%</p>\n<p>Back in July 2018, I wrote about the&nbsp;<i>7 Reasons AT&amp;T Is Going to Blow the Time Warner Merger.</i>At the time, the Department of Justice was trying to block the mega-merger.</p>\n<p>In hindsight, I’m sure long-time shareholders wish the DOJ had been successful in blocking the acquisition. It’s been both a time waster and a serious blow to AT&amp;T’s reputation with dividend investors.</p>\n<p><i>CNBC</i>host Jim Cramer has been&nbsp;very critical&nbsp;of the mistakes made by AT&amp;T.</p>\n<p>“I am not calling it a transformational deal. I am calling it the denouement of a ridiculously stupid deal, the $85 billion acquisition of Time Warner, a deal that closed less than three years ago,” Cramer stated in his<i>Real Money</i>column on May 17, the day AT&amp;T threw in the towel on WarnerMedia.</p>\n<p>The reality is that T paid $85 billion for WarnerMedia. It’s getting&nbsp;$43 billion&nbsp;in cash, debt, and WarnerMedia retains some of the debt. AT&amp;T shareholders will also own 71% of the new business.</p>\n<p>The downside is that AT&amp;T will cut the dividend&nbsp;in half.</p>\n<p>All these dividend chasers are left holding squat and hoping for dear life that the merged entity can deliver at least $42 billion in additional value to get back to square one before the ridiculously stupid merger took place.</p>\n<p>It was one of the dumbest deals of the 21st century.</p>\n<p><b>Lennar (LEN)</b></p>\n<p><b>Five-day performance:</b>-7.9%</p>\n<p>Lennar makes our list of stocks to watch because over the past five days, the homebuilder lost almost 8% of its value. The&nbsp;<b>iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF</b>&nbsp;(BATS:<b><u>ITB</u></b>), which has a&nbsp;Lennar weighting&nbsp;of 12.2%, lost 5.4% over the past five days.</p>\n<p>Let’s call it a cooling-off period. The ITB has an annualized total return of 75.9% over the past year and is up 25.8% year-to-date. Over the past decade, it’s got an annualized total return of 19%, 468 basis points better than its consumer cyclical peers.</p>\n<p>For those who believe there is a housing bubble right around the corner, consider Ben Carlson’s&nbsp;<i>Fortune</i>&nbsp;article from April. It suggests&nbsp;home loans&nbsp;are mostly being made by people with good credit scores and large down payments, the opposite of the subprime meltdown in 2008.</p>\n<p>If you combine this fact with the reality that the housing supply isn’t nearly as abundant as it ought to be, you get the picture of a supply issue rather than one of excess demand.</p>\n<p>Here’s what Lennar Executive Chairman Stuart Miller had to say in its Q1 2021 conference call in March.</p>\n<blockquote>\n So, from a macro perspective, the housing market remains strong. Demand has continued to strengthen as the millennial generation, which had previously postponed its entry into the housing market, has now continued to drive family formation, while at the same time, the supply of new and existing homes remains constrained.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Take advantage of these pullbacks. The housing boom hardly seems ready to end anytime soon.</p>\n<p><b>Tesla (TSLA)</b></p>\n<p><b>Five-day performance:</b>-6.4%</p>\n<p>Innovation costs money. That’s especially true when it comes to the electrification of transportation. It took Tesla&nbsp;15 years&nbsp;to post its first annual profit after Elon Musk&nbsp;took control&nbsp;of it in 2004.</p>\n<p>After running up huge returns in 2020, Tesla is off almost 27% in the past three months due to many different reasons, including the fact Michael Burry, the man behind the&nbsp;<i>Big Short,</i>has taken a&nbsp;short position&nbsp;using put options on 800,100 shares of TSLA stock.</p>\n<p>And while Musk has gone hot and cold over&nbsp;<b>Bitcoin</b>&nbsp;(CCC:<b><u>BTC-USD</u></b>), Tesla shareholders ought to be more worried about the&nbsp;bureaucratic nightmare&nbsp;happening across the pond in Germany as it tries to get its Berlin Gigafactory built.</p>\n<p>“Although things looked good regarding the Tesla facility up to a few weeks ago, a different reality can lie behind a facade,” says Berlin-based auto analyst Matthias Schmidt.</p>\n<p>The new Berlin airport, which is very close to the Tesla factory, took almost a decade to get regulatory approval from the German authorities. If Tesla takes that long, Musk can forget about becoming the richest person in the world.</p>\n<p>I’m a fan of Musk’s innovative bent, but 2021 could turn out to be one of his most challenging years on record. That makes Tesla one of our stocks to watch.</p>\n<p><b>Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)</b></p>\n<p><b>Five-day performance:</b>-4.9%</p>\n<p>A piece of news that probably got lost in the shuffle was Chipotle’s March announcement that it plans to&nbsp;accelerate its expansionin&nbsp;to Canada. Over the next year, it will open eight more locations in Canada, including one Chipotlane, the company’s digital drive-up. The openings will be the first since October 2018.</p>\n<p>As a Canadian, all I can say is, it’s about time.</p>\n<p>“Given the rising popularity of Chipotle’s real food in Canada, we believe there is a massive growth opportunity in this international market,” said Anat Davidzon, Chipotle’s managing director – Canada. “Our team is focused on continuing to find ways to increase access to Chipotle for our Canadian fans.”</p>\n<p>With only 23 Chipotle locations in four Canadian cities at the moment (Toronto, Vancouver, Ottawa and London) there is plenty of room for expansion. Hopefully, they’ll open one in Halifax in the next couple of years.</p>\n<p>In the meantime, Chipotle stock has recovered nicely in recent years. A $5,000 investment three years ago is worth $15,338 today. That’s tasty.</p>\n<p>Keep in mind CMG isn’t cheap at almost&nbsp;6x sales. However, compared to&nbsp;<b>McDonald’s</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:<b><u>MCD</u></b>) at&nbsp;8.9x sales, it’s a bargain.</p>\n<p><b>MSCI (MSCI)</b></p>\n<p><b>Five-day performance:</b>-3.8%</p>\n<p>I don’t know if it’s just me and my self-diagnosed dyslexia, but I always seem to get MSCI confused with&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P Global</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:<b><u>SPGI</u></b>). They’re both financial services companies, they both have four-letter stock symbols, and over the past five days of trading, they’re both down a lot more than the index.</p>\n<p>And not to be too easy on me, but both companies have index businesses that generate significant revenue and profits for their shareholders. In the past, I’ve recommended both stocks.</p>\n<p>In May 2020, I recommended MSCI stock as one of&nbsp;seven stocks to buy&nbsp;from the&nbsp;<b>TrimTabs All Cap US Free-Cash Flow ETF</b>(BATS:<b><u>TTAC</u></b>). I picked MSCI because its free cash flow had almost doubled from $360 million in 2017 to $660 million in 2019.</p>\n<p>Well, in the trailing 12 months, it was&nbsp;$863 million, a compound annual growth rate of 31% over the past 3.25 years. Frankly, I don’t think you can go wrong owning either MSCI or SPGI.</p>\n<p>However, over the past five years, the former has doubled the performance of the latter. Take that to the bank.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Winning Stocks and 5 Losing Stocks to Watch Right Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Winning Stocks and 5 Losing Stocks to Watch Right Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 17:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/05/5-winning-losing-stocks-to-watch-right-now/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Even the losers from this past week are stocks to watch in the coming months and years\nSource: Shutterstock\nAround this time last year, I wrote up a gallery of stocks to watch that had caught investor...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/05/5-winning-losing-stocks-to-watch-right-now/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RCL":"皇家加勒比邮轮","LEN":"莱纳建筑公司","T":"美国电话电报","MSCI":"MSCI Inc","OXY":"西方石油","TSLA":"特斯拉","HSY":"好时","CMG":"墨式烧烤","ULTA":"Ulta美容"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/05/5-winning-losing-stocks-to-watch-right-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108503848","content_text":"Even the losers from this past week are stocks to watch in the coming months and years\nSource: Shutterstock\nAround this time last year, I wrote up a gallery of stocks to watch that had caught investor interest over a week’s worth of trading. In that example, theS&P 500had gained 3.5% over the previous five days of trading.\nAs a result, out of my 10 stocks to watch,seven were burning up the track while three were lagging the index.\nNow that we’re in 2021, I thought I would do the same thing.\nOnly this time, I’ll find five winners and losers from the past five days of trading who’ve either outperformed or underperformed the index. For this article, I’ll use May 12 through May 18 (five days and a weekend) and limit the companies to stocks with market capitalizations of $10 billion or higher.\nIf you’re wondering, the 10 stocks to watch from my article (both good and bad weekly performances) had lights-out returns over the past year.\nBetween May 12 and May 18, the S&P 500 had a total return of -0.6%. Based on that, here are my five winning stocks and five losing stocks to watch right now.\n\nNortonLifeLock(NASDAQ:NLOK)\nOccidental Petroleum(NYSE:OXY)\nUlta Beauty(NASDAQ:ULTA)\nRoyal Caribbean(NYSE:RCL)\nHershey(NYSE:HSY)\nAT&T(NYSE:T)\nLennar(NYSE:LEN)\nTesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)\nChipotle Mexican Grill(NYSE:CMG)\nMSCI(NYSE:MSCI)\n\nNortonLifeLock (NLOK)\nFive-day performance:13.5%\nThe cybersecurity software and services company got a nice boost on May 12 when BofA analyst Tal Liani upgraded NLOK stock to “buy” from “underperform.” More importantly, the analyst increased its target price by 58%, from $19 to $30. Currently trading below the target, it’s possible future quarterly results could push that higher.\nLiani believes that the consumer market, NortonLifeLock’s bread and butter, provides it with a long runway of growth. The company itself expects 2022 revenue growth of at least 8% and adjusted earnings per share of $1.70, which would be 60% higher year-over-year.\n“Management believes the consumer cybersecurity market is heavily underpenetrated, which leaves room for growing the subscriber base as well,” Liani wrote.“Lastly, international expansion is another key element, with international sales accounting for 30% of revenues, and management outlined a country-by-country strategy to address the remaining potential.”\nNortonLifeLock’s been on a strong run the past five years with an annualized total return of 18.8%. But it looks as though the next five could be equally rewarding for shareholders.\nOccidental Petroleum (OXY)\nFive-day performance:5.6%\nInvestor’s Business Daily commented in early May that the Occidental corporate jet was spotted in Omaha days before Warren Buffett invested $10 billion in the oil company in 2019.\nAt times in the past couple of years, I’m sure Buffett would have preferred the jet go almost anywhere else except Omaha, as the price of oil tanked. As part of his $10 billion preferred-share investment, Buffett got 83.86 million warrants to buy OXY stock at $59.62.\nStarting in 2029, Occidental can redeem the 8% preferreds at a redemption price equal to 105% of the liquidation preference plus any unpaid dividends. The dividends Buffett was paid in 2020 were made in Oxy stock. The Oracle of Omaha sold those shares in August 2020.\nThanks to a rebound in oil prices, Occidental’s got a total return of almost 72% over the past year, significantly higher than the U.S. markets as a whole. However, as I write this, OXY stock is still trading at less than half Buffett’s exercise price.\nHe’s got until one year after Occidental were to redeem its preferred shares. That means at least another nine years to move into the money.\nUlta Beauty (ULTA)\nFive-day performance:4.7%\nThe specialty retailer of cosmetics, skin and hair care products, fragrances, and a provider of beauty salon services, reports its Q1 2021 results on May 27. The 27 analysts who cover ULTA estimate $1.90 per share on the bottom line and $1.63 billion in sales on the top line. Both will be marked improvements from a year ago when Covid-19 stay-at-home orders were kicking in.\nIn mid-May, JPMorgan analysts named Ulta to its list of favorite retail stocks. The bank gives ULTA an overweight rating and has it on its Analyst Focus List. Interestingly,Target(NYSE:TGT) is also a favorite of JPM due to its inventory control and overall strength during the important back-to-school season.\nIn November, Ulta announced that it would open 1,000-square-foot shops within Target. They will be staffed by the discount retailer with training from Ulta.\nBoth Ulta CEO Mary Dillon and Target CEO Brian Cornell believe the arrangement will help drive traffic to both stores. Two of the best CEOs in retail, this partnership is sure to be a success, making ULTA one of our stocks to watch.\nRoyal Caribbean (RCL)\nFive-day performance:4.6%\nIt wasn’t just Royal Caribbean that had a good five days of trading. All of the cruise operators did.Carnival (NYSE:CCL) and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NYSE:NCLH) were up 8.2% and 5.7%, respectively. I happen to prefer RCL over the other two.\nThe cruise operator got excellent news in late April when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention clarified its position on cruise ships setting sail from American ports of call this summer. Royal Caribbean figures it can restart its U.S. cruise departures in mid-July.\nConsidering it lost $1.1 billion in its latest quarter, the news couldn’t have come at a better time. Plus, its balance sheet is currently bolstered by more than $5 billion in cash. As cruise-goers appear to be ready to spend more on cruises than in past years, they should be able to get back to pre-Covid revenues by the end of 2022, perhaps earlier.\nIn 2020, while RCL was getting pummeled, I continued to say it was a long-term winner. Up almost double in the past year, RCL should top $100 before the end of 2021.\nHershey (HSY)\nFive-day performance:2.3%\nI know what you’re thinking. When considering stocks to watch, why include a company that gained a measly 2.3% over the past five days? Especially when there were 46 stocks ($10 billion market cap or higher) with a better return?\nSimple. I like the job CEO Michele Buck has done since taking the top job in March 2017. It’s why I included Hershey on my October 2020 list of companies with top-notch women CEOs. Since that article, HSY stock is up 18% since.\n In late April, Buck said that she expects Halloween to be very strong this coming October as vaccinations make it possible for trick-or-treaters to get out in the evening air to collect their annual haul of candy and chocolate. I, for one, will be loading up this year.\n“Consumers are participating in seasons, they are telling us they’re doing more movie nights at home, they’re making more s’mores at home [and] at the same time, we’re seeing growth in our food service and our own retail businesses, which are away from home,” Buck toldCNBC.\nAs a result, HSY sees higher earnings and sales in 2021 than originally expected. It’s good to know consumers haven’t lost their taste for sweets during the pandemic.\nAT&T(T)\nFive-day performance:-8.4%\nBack in July 2018, I wrote about the 7 Reasons AT&T Is Going to Blow the Time Warner Merger.At the time, the Department of Justice was trying to block the mega-merger.\nIn hindsight, I’m sure long-time shareholders wish the DOJ had been successful in blocking the acquisition. It’s been both a time waster and a serious blow to AT&T’s reputation with dividend investors.\nCNBChost Jim Cramer has been very critical of the mistakes made by AT&T.\n“I am not calling it a transformational deal. I am calling it the denouement of a ridiculously stupid deal, the $85 billion acquisition of Time Warner, a deal that closed less than three years ago,” Cramer stated in hisReal Moneycolumn on May 17, the day AT&T threw in the towel on WarnerMedia.\nThe reality is that T paid $85 billion for WarnerMedia. It’s getting $43 billion in cash, debt, and WarnerMedia retains some of the debt. AT&T shareholders will also own 71% of the new business.\nThe downside is that AT&T will cut the dividend in half.\nAll these dividend chasers are left holding squat and hoping for dear life that the merged entity can deliver at least $42 billion in additional value to get back to square one before the ridiculously stupid merger took place.\nIt was one of the dumbest deals of the 21st century.\nLennar (LEN)\nFive-day performance:-7.9%\nLennar makes our list of stocks to watch because over the past five days, the homebuilder lost almost 8% of its value. The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (BATS:ITB), which has a Lennar weighting of 12.2%, lost 5.4% over the past five days.\nLet’s call it a cooling-off period. The ITB has an annualized total return of 75.9% over the past year and is up 25.8% year-to-date. Over the past decade, it’s got an annualized total return of 19%, 468 basis points better than its consumer cyclical peers.\nFor those who believe there is a housing bubble right around the corner, consider Ben Carlson’s Fortune article from April. It suggests home loans are mostly being made by people with good credit scores and large down payments, the opposite of the subprime meltdown in 2008.\nIf you combine this fact with the reality that the housing supply isn’t nearly as abundant as it ought to be, you get the picture of a supply issue rather than one of excess demand.\nHere’s what Lennar Executive Chairman Stuart Miller had to say in its Q1 2021 conference call in March.\n\n So, from a macro perspective, the housing market remains strong. Demand has continued to strengthen as the millennial generation, which had previously postponed its entry into the housing market, has now continued to drive family formation, while at the same time, the supply of new and existing homes remains constrained.\n\nTake advantage of these pullbacks. The housing boom hardly seems ready to end anytime soon.\nTesla (TSLA)\nFive-day performance:-6.4%\nInnovation costs money. That’s especially true when it comes to the electrification of transportation. It took Tesla 15 years to post its first annual profit after Elon Musk took control of it in 2004.\nAfter running up huge returns in 2020, Tesla is off almost 27% in the past three months due to many different reasons, including the fact Michael Burry, the man behind the Big Short,has taken a short position using put options on 800,100 shares of TSLA stock.\nAnd while Musk has gone hot and cold over Bitcoin (CCC:BTC-USD), Tesla shareholders ought to be more worried about the bureaucratic nightmare happening across the pond in Germany as it tries to get its Berlin Gigafactory built.\n“Although things looked good regarding the Tesla facility up to a few weeks ago, a different reality can lie behind a facade,” says Berlin-based auto analyst Matthias Schmidt.\nThe new Berlin airport, which is very close to the Tesla factory, took almost a decade to get regulatory approval from the German authorities. If Tesla takes that long, Musk can forget about becoming the richest person in the world.\nI’m a fan of Musk’s innovative bent, but 2021 could turn out to be one of his most challenging years on record. That makes Tesla one of our stocks to watch.\nChipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)\nFive-day performance:-4.9%\nA piece of news that probably got lost in the shuffle was Chipotle’s March announcement that it plans to accelerate its expansionin to Canada. Over the next year, it will open eight more locations in Canada, including one Chipotlane, the company’s digital drive-up. The openings will be the first since October 2018.\nAs a Canadian, all I can say is, it’s about time.\n“Given the rising popularity of Chipotle’s real food in Canada, we believe there is a massive growth opportunity in this international market,” said Anat Davidzon, Chipotle’s managing director – Canada. “Our team is focused on continuing to find ways to increase access to Chipotle for our Canadian fans.”\nWith only 23 Chipotle locations in four Canadian cities at the moment (Toronto, Vancouver, Ottawa and London) there is plenty of room for expansion. Hopefully, they’ll open one in Halifax in the next couple of years.\nIn the meantime, Chipotle stock has recovered nicely in recent years. A $5,000 investment three years ago is worth $15,338 today. That’s tasty.\nKeep in mind CMG isn’t cheap at almost 6x sales. However, compared to McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) at 8.9x sales, it’s a bargain.\nMSCI (MSCI)\nFive-day performance:-3.8%\nI don’t know if it’s just me and my self-diagnosed dyslexia, but I always seem to get MSCI confused with S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI). They’re both financial services companies, they both have four-letter stock symbols, and over the past five days of trading, they’re both down a lot more than the index.\nAnd not to be too easy on me, but both companies have index businesses that generate significant revenue and profits for their shareholders. In the past, I’ve recommended both stocks.\nIn May 2020, I recommended MSCI stock as one of seven stocks to buy from the TrimTabs All Cap US Free-Cash Flow ETF(BATS:TTAC). I picked MSCI because its free cash flow had almost doubled from $360 million in 2017 to $660 million in 2019.\nWell, in the trailing 12 months, it was $863 million, a compound annual growth rate of 31% over the past 3.25 years. Frankly, I don’t think you can go wrong owning either MSCI or SPGI.\nHowever, over the past five years, the former has doubled the performance of the latter. 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[抱拳]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/084019a4a77a61d22658c77f117a22e2","width":"750","height":"1935"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/858370919","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":142,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":827796660,"gmtCreate":1634521902312,"gmtModify":1634522148020,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F34.SI\">$丰益国际(F34.SI)$</a>For coin&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F34.SI\">$丰益国际(F34.SI)$</a>For coin&nbsp;","text":"$丰益国际(F34.SI)$For coin","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0c151978e38a1942693d5460d43c8d8","width":"750","height":"1935"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/827796660","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":128,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":867159018,"gmtCreate":1633228943354,"gmtModify":1633228943504,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$星巴克(SBUX)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$星巴克(SBUX)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;","text":"$星巴克(SBUX)$[开心]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0182bcdf46396daf9c02ea89d34e8cf8","width":"750","height":"1174"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867159018","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":164660687,"gmtCreate":1624201058249,"gmtModify":1631891887096,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read [Grin]&nbsp;","listText":"Good read [Grin]&nbsp;","text":"Good read [Grin]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164660687","repostId":"1199331995","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199331995","pubTimestamp":1624065374,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199331995?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-19 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. IPO Week Ahead: Billion-Dollar Deals Come To Market In A 12 IPO Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199331995","media":"Renaissance","summary":"12 IPOs are scheduled to raise $5.6 billion in the week ahead led by two billion-dollar deals.Chinese freight platform Full Truck Alliance plans to raise $1.5 billion at a $19.7 billion market cap. The company’s platform connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types. Full Truck states that it is the world's largest digital freight platform by gross transaction value , facilitating 22+ million fulfilled orders with GTV of nearly $8 billio","content":"<p>12 IPOs are scheduled to raise $5.6 billion in the week ahead led by two billion-dollar deals.</p>\n<p>Chinese freight platform&nbsp;<b>Full Truck Alliance</b>(YMM) plans to raise $1.5 billion at a $19.7 billion market cap. The company’s platform connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types. Full Truck states that it is the world's largest digital freight platform by gross transaction value (GTV), facilitating 22+ million fulfilled orders with GTV of nearly $8 billion in the 1Q21.</p>\n<p>Healthcare manager&nbsp;<b>Bright Health Group</b>(BHG) plans to raise $1.3 billion at a $15.4 billion market cap. Bright Health seeks to employ a more consumer-centric approach to healthcare to improve consumer experiences. Through a multi-pronged organic and inorganic growth strategy, the company’s core business has grown to serve roughly 623,000 patients in 14 states since its founding.</p>\n<p>Data infrastructure provider&nbsp;<b>Confluent</b>(CFLT) plans to raise $713 million at a $10.0 billion market cap. Confluent data infrastructure offering is designed to connect all the applications, systems, and data layers of a company around a real-time central nervous system. The company had more than 2,500 customers as of March 2021, with a dollar-based net retention rate of 117%.</p>\n<p>Car wash brand&nbsp;<b>Mister Car Wash</b>(MCW) plans to raise $600 million at a $5.3 billion market cap. Profitable with solid cash flow, Mister Car Wash is the largest national car wash brand in the US, with 344 locations in 21 states. The company offers a monthly subscription program called Unlimited Wash Club which had 1.4 million members as of 3/31/21, representing nearly two-thirds of total wash sales.</p>\n<p>Digital physicians network&nbsp;<b>Doximity</b>(DOCS) plans to raise $501 million at a $4.5 billion market cap. Doximity claims that it is the leading digital platform for US medical professionals, allowing collaboration with colleagues and secure coordination of patient care, among other features. Fast growing and profitable, the company had over 1.8 million members as of 3/31/21, representing more than 80% of physicians across the country.</p>\n<p>Customer experience software provider&nbsp;<b>Sprinklr</b>(CXM) plans to raise $361 million at a $5.5 billion market cap. Sprinklr provides a software platform that helps enterprises create a persistent, unified view of each customer at scale. The company has attracted more than 1,000 customers, including over 50% of the Fortune 100. Sprinklr has improved its gross margins, though cash flow swung negative in 1Q FY22.</p>\n<p>HR platform provider&nbsp;<b>First Advantage</b>(FA) plans to raise $298 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. First Advantage provides technology solutions for screening, verifications, safety, and compliance related to human capital. Profitable with positive cash flow, the company derives most of its revenues from pre-onboarding screening, performing over 75 million screens on behalf of more than 30,000 customers in 2020.</p>\n<p>Chinese social networking platform&nbsp;<b>Soulgate</b>(SSR) plans to raise $185 million at a $1.8 billion market cap. The company’s app Soul is a virtual social network created to address the drawbacks of current social media platforms. In March 2021, the company averaged 9.1 million DAUs, a 94% increase over the prior year period.</p>\n<p>Digital financial services provider&nbsp;<b>AMTD Digital</b>(HKD) plans to raise $120 million at a $1.4 billion market cap. AMTD Digital states that it is the \"fusion reactor\" at the core of the AMTD SpiderNet ecosystem, operating a comprehensive digital solutions platform in Asia. Profitable with explosive growth, the company primarily generates revenue from fees and commissions in two lines of business.</p>\n<p>Organ bioengineering company&nbsp;<b>Miromatrix Medical</b>(MIRO) plans to raise $32 million at a $162 million market cap. Miromatrix is developing a novel technology for bioengineering fully transplantable human organs, initially focused on livers and kidneys. The company has demonstrated functional vasculature and important organ function in preclinical studies, and hopes to initiate a Phase 1 trial in late 2022 with its External Liver Assist Product.</p>\n<p>Kidney disease biotech&nbsp;<b>Unicycive Therapeutics</b>(UNCY) plans to raise $25 million at a $116 million market cap. The company’s candidates include Renazorb, which was in-licensed from Spectrum Pharmaceuticals, and UNI 494, which was in-licensed from Sphaera Pharmaceuticals. Unicycive began conducting preclinical trials on UNI 494 in 2020.</p>\n<p>Antibiotic biotech&nbsp;<b>Acurx Pharmaceuticals</b>(ACXP) plans to raise $15 million at a $62 million market cap. The company is developing a new class of antibiotics for infections caused by bacteria listed as priority pathogens by the WHO, CDC, and USDA. Its lead candidate recently completed a Phase 2a trial in patients with C. difficile infections, and is expected to begin a Phase 2b trial this year.</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <th>U.S. IPO Calendar</th>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <th>Issuer Business</th>\n   <th>Deal Size Market Cap</th>\n   <th>Price Range Shares Filed</th>\n   <th>Top Bookrunners</th>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Full Truck Alliance (YMM)</p><p>Guiyang, China</p></td>\n   <td>$1,485M$19,723M</td>\n   <td>$17 - $1982,500,000</td>\n   <td>Morgan StanleyCICC</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Digital freight platform that connects shippers and truckers in China.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>First Advantage (FA)</p><p>Atlanta, GA</p></td>\n   <td>$298M$2,097M</td>\n   <td>$13 - $1521,250,000</td>\n   <td>BarclaysBofA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Provides background checks and other services to corporate customers.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Sprinklr (CXM)</p><p>New York, NY</p></td>\n   <td>$361M$5,541M</td>\n   <td>$18 - $2019,000,000</td>\n   <td>Morgan StanleyJP Morgan</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Provides customer experience management software for enterprises.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Bright Health Group (BHG)</p><p>Minneapolis, MN</p></td>\n   <td>$1,290M$15,385M</td>\n   <td>$20 - $2360,000,000</td>\n   <td>JP MorganGoldman</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Provides health insurance and other healthcare services.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Confluent (CFLT)</p><p>Mountain View, CA</p></td>\n   <td>$713M$10,033M</td>\n   <td>$29 - $3323,000,000</td>\n   <td>Morgan StanleyJP Morgan</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Provides an enterprise platform that collects and processes real-time data streams.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Doximity (DOCS)</p><p>San Francisco, CA</p></td>\n   <td>$501M$4,549M</td>\n   <td>$20 - $2323,300,000</td>\n   <td>Morgan StanleyGoldman</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Professional network for physicians with telehealth and scheduling tools.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Soulgate (SSR)</p><p>Shanghai, China</p></td>\n   <td>$185M$1,824M</td>\n   <td>$13 - $1513,200,000</td>\n   <td>Morgan StanleyJefferies</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Provides the gamified social networking app Soul in China.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Acurx Pharmaceuticals (ACXP)</p><p>Staten Island, NY</p></td>\n   <td>$15M$62M</td>\n   <td>$5 - $72,500,000</td>\n   <td>Alexander CapitalNetwork 1</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Phase 2 biotech developing antibiotics for antibiotic-resistant pathogens.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Mister Car Wash (MCW)</p><p>Tucson, AZ</p></td>\n   <td>$600M$5,256M</td>\n   <td>$15 - $1737,500,000</td>\n   <td>BofAMorgan Stanley</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Leading national car wash brand with 344 locations across the US.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>AMTD Digital (HKD)</p><p>Hong Kong, China</p></td>\n   <td>$120M$1,388M</td>\n   <td>$6.80 - $8.2016,000,000</td>\n   <td>AMTD GlobalLoop Capital</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Digital financial services provider being spun out of AMTD.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Miromatrix Medical (MIRO)</p><p>Eden Prairie, MN</p></td>\n   <td>$32M$162M</td>\n   <td>$7 - $94,000,000</td>\n   <td>Craig-Hallum</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Developing novel bioengineering technology for organ transplants.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY)</p><p>Los Altos, CA</p></td>\n   <td>$25M$116M</td>\n   <td>$8.50 - $10.502,635,000</td>\n   <td>Roth Cap.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Early-stage biotech developing in-licensed therapies for kidney disease.</td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Street research is expected for seven companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to two companies.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. IPO Week Ahead: Billion-Dollar Deals Come To Market In A 12 IPO Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-19 09:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435613-us-ipo-week-ahead-billion-dollar-deals-come-to-market-in-a-12-ipo-week><strong>Renaissance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>12 IPOs are scheduled to raise $5.6 billion in the week ahead led by two billion-dollar deals.\nChinese freight platform Full Truck Alliance(YMM) plans to raise $1.5 billion at a $19.7 billion market ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435613-us-ipo-week-ahead-billion-dollar-deals-come-to-market-in-a-12-ipo-week\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MCW":"Mister Car Wash, Inc.","FA":"First Advantage Corp.","CXM":"Sprinklr, Inc.","CFLT":"Confluent, Inc.","YMM":"满帮","DOCS":"Doximity, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435613-us-ipo-week-ahead-billion-dollar-deals-come-to-market-in-a-12-ipo-week","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1199331995","content_text":"12 IPOs are scheduled to raise $5.6 billion in the week ahead led by two billion-dollar deals.\nChinese freight platform Full Truck Alliance(YMM) plans to raise $1.5 billion at a $19.7 billion market cap. The company’s platform connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types. Full Truck states that it is the world's largest digital freight platform by gross transaction value (GTV), facilitating 22+ million fulfilled orders with GTV of nearly $8 billion in the 1Q21.\nHealthcare manager Bright Health Group(BHG) plans to raise $1.3 billion at a $15.4 billion market cap. Bright Health seeks to employ a more consumer-centric approach to healthcare to improve consumer experiences. Through a multi-pronged organic and inorganic growth strategy, the company’s core business has grown to serve roughly 623,000 patients in 14 states since its founding.\nData infrastructure provider Confluent(CFLT) plans to raise $713 million at a $10.0 billion market cap. Confluent data infrastructure offering is designed to connect all the applications, systems, and data layers of a company around a real-time central nervous system. The company had more than 2,500 customers as of March 2021, with a dollar-based net retention rate of 117%.\nCar wash brand Mister Car Wash(MCW) plans to raise $600 million at a $5.3 billion market cap. Profitable with solid cash flow, Mister Car Wash is the largest national car wash brand in the US, with 344 locations in 21 states. The company offers a monthly subscription program called Unlimited Wash Club which had 1.4 million members as of 3/31/21, representing nearly two-thirds of total wash sales.\nDigital physicians network Doximity(DOCS) plans to raise $501 million at a $4.5 billion market cap. Doximity claims that it is the leading digital platform for US medical professionals, allowing collaboration with colleagues and secure coordination of patient care, among other features. Fast growing and profitable, the company had over 1.8 million members as of 3/31/21, representing more than 80% of physicians across the country.\nCustomer experience software provider Sprinklr(CXM) plans to raise $361 million at a $5.5 billion market cap. Sprinklr provides a software platform that helps enterprises create a persistent, unified view of each customer at scale. The company has attracted more than 1,000 customers, including over 50% of the Fortune 100. Sprinklr has improved its gross margins, though cash flow swung negative in 1Q FY22.\nHR platform provider First Advantage(FA) plans to raise $298 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. First Advantage provides technology solutions for screening, verifications, safety, and compliance related to human capital. Profitable with positive cash flow, the company derives most of its revenues from pre-onboarding screening, performing over 75 million screens on behalf of more than 30,000 customers in 2020.\nChinese social networking platform Soulgate(SSR) plans to raise $185 million at a $1.8 billion market cap. The company’s app Soul is a virtual social network created to address the drawbacks of current social media platforms. In March 2021, the company averaged 9.1 million DAUs, a 94% increase over the prior year period.\nDigital financial services provider AMTD Digital(HKD) plans to raise $120 million at a $1.4 billion market cap. AMTD Digital states that it is the \"fusion reactor\" at the core of the AMTD SpiderNet ecosystem, operating a comprehensive digital solutions platform in Asia. Profitable with explosive growth, the company primarily generates revenue from fees and commissions in two lines of business.\nOrgan bioengineering company Miromatrix Medical(MIRO) plans to raise $32 million at a $162 million market cap. Miromatrix is developing a novel technology for bioengineering fully transplantable human organs, initially focused on livers and kidneys. The company has demonstrated functional vasculature and important organ function in preclinical studies, and hopes to initiate a Phase 1 trial in late 2022 with its External Liver Assist Product.\nKidney disease biotech Unicycive Therapeutics(UNCY) plans to raise $25 million at a $116 million market cap. The company’s candidates include Renazorb, which was in-licensed from Spectrum Pharmaceuticals, and UNI 494, which was in-licensed from Sphaera Pharmaceuticals. Unicycive began conducting preclinical trials on UNI 494 in 2020.\nAntibiotic biotech Acurx Pharmaceuticals(ACXP) plans to raise $15 million at a $62 million market cap. The company is developing a new class of antibiotics for infections caused by bacteria listed as priority pathogens by the WHO, CDC, and USDA. Its lead candidate recently completed a Phase 2a trial in patients with C. difficile infections, and is expected to begin a Phase 2b trial this year.\n\n\n\nU.S. IPO Calendar\n\n\nIssuer Business\nDeal Size Market Cap\nPrice Range Shares Filed\nTop Bookrunners\n\n\nFull Truck Alliance (YMM)Guiyang, China\n$1,485M$19,723M\n$17 - $1982,500,000\nMorgan StanleyCICC\n\n\nDigital freight platform that connects shippers and truckers in China.\n\n\nFirst Advantage (FA)Atlanta, GA\n$298M$2,097M\n$13 - $1521,250,000\nBarclaysBofA\n\n\nProvides background checks and other services to corporate customers.\n\n\nSprinklr (CXM)New York, NY\n$361M$5,541M\n$18 - $2019,000,000\nMorgan StanleyJP Morgan\n\n\nProvides customer experience management software for enterprises.\n\n\nBright Health Group (BHG)Minneapolis, MN\n$1,290M$15,385M\n$20 - $2360,000,000\nJP MorganGoldman\n\n\nProvides health insurance and other healthcare services.\n\n\nConfluent (CFLT)Mountain View, CA\n$713M$10,033M\n$29 - $3323,000,000\nMorgan StanleyJP Morgan\n\n\nProvides an enterprise platform that collects and processes real-time data streams.\n\n\nDoximity (DOCS)San Francisco, CA\n$501M$4,549M\n$20 - $2323,300,000\nMorgan StanleyGoldman\n\n\nProfessional network for physicians with telehealth and scheduling tools.\n\n\nSoulgate (SSR)Shanghai, China\n$185M$1,824M\n$13 - $1513,200,000\nMorgan StanleyJefferies\n\n\nProvides the gamified social networking app Soul in China.\n\n\nAcurx Pharmaceuticals (ACXP)Staten Island, NY\n$15M$62M\n$5 - $72,500,000\nAlexander CapitalNetwork 1\n\n\nPhase 2 biotech developing antibiotics for antibiotic-resistant pathogens.\n\n\nMister Car Wash (MCW)Tucson, AZ\n$600M$5,256M\n$15 - $1737,500,000\nBofAMorgan Stanley\n\n\nLeading national car wash brand with 344 locations across the US.\n\n\nAMTD Digital (HKD)Hong Kong, China\n$120M$1,388M\n$6.80 - $8.2016,000,000\nAMTD GlobalLoop Capital\n\n\nDigital financial services provider being spun out of AMTD.\n\n\nMiromatrix Medical (MIRO)Eden Prairie, MN\n$32M$162M\n$7 - $94,000,000\nCraig-Hallum\n\n\nDeveloping novel bioengineering technology for organ transplants.\n\n\nUnicycive Therapeutics (UNCY)Los Altos, CA\n$25M$116M\n$8.50 - $10.502,635,000\nRoth Cap.\n\n\nEarly-stage biotech developing in-licensed therapies for kidney disease.\n\n\n\nStreet research is expected for seven companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to two companies.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":22,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165988115,"gmtCreate":1624087136237,"gmtModify":1634010818346,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165988115","repostId":"1168762020","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168762020","pubTimestamp":1623988654,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168762020?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168762020","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithogra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>\n <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>\n <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>\n <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>\n <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p>\n<p>ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p>\n<p>It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p>\n<p>Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p>\n<p><b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p>\n<p>For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p>\n<p>Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p>\n<p>This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p>\n<p>Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p>\n<p>The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p>\n<p>Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p>\n<p>ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p>\n<p>If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p>\n<p>As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p>\n<p>There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”\n <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p>\n<p>I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p>\n<p>So, to sum it all up:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>\n <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>\n <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>\n <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>\n <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>\n <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Sounds pretty good to me.</p>\n<p>The Financial Performance and Development</p>\n<p>ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Strong revenue growth</li>\n <li>Strong margin expansion</li>\n <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>\n <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p>\n<p>This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p>\n<p>An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p>\n<p>The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p>\n<p>Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p>\n<p>ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p>\n<p>Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p>\n<p>Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>\n <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>\n <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>\n <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>\n <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>\n <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>\n <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p>\n<p>I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p>\n<p>The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p>\n<p>As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p>\n<p>There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p>\n<p>As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p>\n<p>There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p>\n<p>As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 11:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168762020","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.\nASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.\nA true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.\nExisting shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.\n\nMACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.\nIt's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.\nPersonally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.\nThe Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come\nFor ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).\nActually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.\nThis is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.\nQuite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.\nThe picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.\nSemiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.\nASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.\nIf that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.\nAs can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.\nASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.\nThere is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.\n\n “\n Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.”\n ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\n\nASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\nI believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.\nSo, to sum it all up:\n\nASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight\nEUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade\nThe semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)\nStrong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings\nThe path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips\nASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing\n\nSounds pretty good to me.\nThe Financial Performance and Development\nASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.\n\nStrong revenue growth\nStrong margin expansion\nStrong improvement in free cash flow\nImpressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&D spend and IP portfolio\n\nAnnual Report 2020, p 7.\nThis was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.\nAn interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.\nThe more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.\nAre Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?\nASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.\nAuthor's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.\nRemember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.\nConsidering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:\n\nGeneral semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.\nDUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.\nEUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.\nASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.\nASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.\nASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.\nAs the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.\n\nThis is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.\nI will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.\nValuation\nThe stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.\nData by YCharts\nMarket cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.\nThe significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.\nData by YCharts\nRevenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.\nData by YCharts\nThe strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.\nData by YCharts\nWith all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.\nAs Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.\nThere is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.\nAs can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.\nData by YCharts\nConclusion\nASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.\nThere is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.\nAs Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":23,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166700036,"gmtCreate":1624024174726,"gmtModify":1631885861072,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$Starbucks(SBUX)$</a>[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$Starbucks(SBUX)$</a>[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"$Starbucks(SBUX)$[Happy]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94d0a6ead8bf9afd49ee69c6b9365774","width":"750","height":"1068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166700036","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163932732,"gmtCreate":1623856047826,"gmtModify":1634026972546,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163932732","repostId":"2143792622","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2143792622","pubTimestamp":1623855000,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2143792622?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 22:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Do Netflix's Retail Ambitions Make Any Sense?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143792622","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"This surprising move will initially spark comparisons to Disney and Amazon, but the company's real inspiration probably comes from China.","content":"<p><b>Netflix</b> (NASDAQ:NFLX) recently launched Netflix.shop, an online store for apparel and lifestyle products, in a surprising leap into the retail sector.</p>\n<p>Its initial products include streetwear and action figures based on the anime series <i>Yasuke</i> and <i>Eden</i>, as well as limited-edition apparel, and products inspired by <i>Lupin</i> and produced in collaboration with the Louvre. It's also selling anime-inspired collectibles from up-and-coming designers like Nathalie Nguyen, Kristopher Kites, and Jordan Bentley.</p>\n<p>Netflix.shop will also eventually sell exclusive tie-in products for popular series like <i>The Witcher</i> and <i>Stranger Things</i>, as well as Netflix-branded apparel from the Japanese fashion house BEAMS. It will initially launch the marketplace in the U.S. before expanding into other countries.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc4c819061f1fb41dd3e6cc33a8a8ae8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\"><span>Image source: Netflix.</span></p>\n<p>This doesn't represent Netflix's first attempt at selling tie-in products for its streaming franchises. <b>Target</b>, for example, already carries a wide range of <i>Yasuke</i> products. However, Netflix.shop marks Netflix's first attempt to sell all those tie-in products through its own online marketplace.</p>\n<p>Netflix.shop will spark comparisons to <b>Disney</b> (NYSE:DIS) and <b>Amazon </b>(NASDAQ:AMZN), but is it actually chasing those companies? Or should investors look overseas to understand Netflix's true goals?</p>\n<h2>Could Netflix be responding to Disney and Amazon?</h2>\n<p>Netflix's online store is much smaller than <b>Disney</b>'s (NYSE:DIS) sprawling retail business. At the end of 2020, Disney owned and operated about 200 stores across North America, 60 stores in Europe, 45 stores in Japan, and two stores in China. It also sells its products online and licenses its brands to third-party companies.</p>\n<p>Netflix competes against Disney in the streaming market, but I doubt it will follow Disney's example and open hundreds of brick-and-mortar stores, for three simple reasons.</p>\n<p>First, brick-and-mortar stores are more capital-intensive than online stores. It would be absurd for Netflix, which already plans to spend $17 billion on new streaming content this year, to set aside fresh cash for new physical stores instead of expanding its streaming library.</p>\n<p>Second, physical stores are highly exposed to online competition and the decline of offline shopping. Lastly, Netflix doesn't own as many popular franchises as Disney, which can easily fill its shelves with merchandise from its namesake properties as well as Pixar, Marvel, and Star Wars products.</p>\n<p>Netflix.shop also might seem like an attempt to counter Amazon, which leveraged the strength of its Prime e-commerce ecosystem to tether more viewers to its Prime Video service.</p>\n<p>That strategy would represent a reversal of Amazon's strategy since Netflix would be leveraging its strength in streaming video to expand into the retail market. But I also doubt Netflix plans to pour billions of dollars into challenging Amazon in the cutthroat e-commerce market.</p>\n<h2>So what's Netflix's game plan?</h2>\n<p>Instead of comparing Netflix.shop to Disney or Amazon, investors should look at a Chinese tech company called<b> Bilibili</b> (NASDAQ:BILI) to understand Netflix's angle.</p>\n<p>Bilibili operates a popular streaming-video platform for anime, comics, and gaming (ACG) content in China. It served 223 million monthly active users and 60 million daily active users last quarter.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44f1ed32c2ba2313bed33d9a885d976b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"559\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<p>Bilibili also operates an e-commerce site that sells tie-in products for its ACG franchises. The site is integrated with <b>Alibaba</b>'s (NYSE:BABA) Taobao marketplace and accounts for most of Bilibili's \"e-commerce and others\" revenue.</p>\n<p>Bilibili's \"e-commerce and others\" revenue <i>more than doubled </i>last year and accounted for nearly 13% of its top line, which indicates a streaming-video platform that specializes in anime can operate a successful online marketplace for tie-in content.</p>\n<p>That's probably why Netflix repeatedly mentioned \"anime\" in its press release for Netflix.shop.</p>\n<p>Netflix has added a lot of anime and gaming-related content to its streaming library in recent years, including <i>Yasuke</i>, <i>Voltron</i>, <i>Castlevania</i>, <i>The Witcher</i>, and its upcoming<i> Assassin's Creed</i> show. All that niche content could support the expansion of its marketplace for tie-in products, which would possibly lock in more viewers and generate additional revenue.</p>\n<p>Netflix could also offer exclusive discounts for its subscribers, which might convince more of its 208 million subscribers to become regular shoppers. That growth could also convince more companies to license its franchises for third-party products.</p>\n<h2>The bottom line</h2>\n<p>Netflix's retail expansion is surprising but not unprecedented. Instead of comparing Netflix.shop to Disney or Amazon, investors would do well to study Bilibili to gauge Netflix's true growth potential.</p>\n<p>This effort won't move the needle for Netflix anytime soon, but it shows the company is thinking out of the box to promote its franchises and enter new markets. These strategies could help Netflix remain competitive as Disney, Amazon, and other challengers all ramp up their streaming investments.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Do Netflix's Retail Ambitions Make Any Sense?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDo Netflix's Retail Ambitions Make Any Sense?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-16 22:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/16/do-netflixs-retail-ambitions-make-any-sense/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) recently launched Netflix.shop, an online store for apparel and lifestyle products, in a surprising leap into the retail sector.\nIts initial products include streetwear and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/16/do-netflixs-retail-ambitions-make-any-sense/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIS":"迪士尼","09086":"华夏纳指-U","NFLX":"奈飞","03086":"华夏纳指"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/16/do-netflixs-retail-ambitions-make-any-sense/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143792622","content_text":"Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) recently launched Netflix.shop, an online store for apparel and lifestyle products, in a surprising leap into the retail sector.\nIts initial products include streetwear and action figures based on the anime series Yasuke and Eden, as well as limited-edition apparel, and products inspired by Lupin and produced in collaboration with the Louvre. It's also selling anime-inspired collectibles from up-and-coming designers like Nathalie Nguyen, Kristopher Kites, and Jordan Bentley.\nNetflix.shop will also eventually sell exclusive tie-in products for popular series like The Witcher and Stranger Things, as well as Netflix-branded apparel from the Japanese fashion house BEAMS. It will initially launch the marketplace in the U.S. before expanding into other countries.\nImage source: Netflix.\nThis doesn't represent Netflix's first attempt at selling tie-in products for its streaming franchises. Target, for example, already carries a wide range of Yasuke products. However, Netflix.shop marks Netflix's first attempt to sell all those tie-in products through its own online marketplace.\nNetflix.shop will spark comparisons to Disney (NYSE:DIS) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), but is it actually chasing those companies? Or should investors look overseas to understand Netflix's true goals?\nCould Netflix be responding to Disney and Amazon?\nNetflix's online store is much smaller than Disney's (NYSE:DIS) sprawling retail business. At the end of 2020, Disney owned and operated about 200 stores across North America, 60 stores in Europe, 45 stores in Japan, and two stores in China. It also sells its products online and licenses its brands to third-party companies.\nNetflix competes against Disney in the streaming market, but I doubt it will follow Disney's example and open hundreds of brick-and-mortar stores, for three simple reasons.\nFirst, brick-and-mortar stores are more capital-intensive than online stores. It would be absurd for Netflix, which already plans to spend $17 billion on new streaming content this year, to set aside fresh cash for new physical stores instead of expanding its streaming library.\nSecond, physical stores are highly exposed to online competition and the decline of offline shopping. Lastly, Netflix doesn't own as many popular franchises as Disney, which can easily fill its shelves with merchandise from its namesake properties as well as Pixar, Marvel, and Star Wars products.\nNetflix.shop also might seem like an attempt to counter Amazon, which leveraged the strength of its Prime e-commerce ecosystem to tether more viewers to its Prime Video service.\nThat strategy would represent a reversal of Amazon's strategy since Netflix would be leveraging its strength in streaming video to expand into the retail market. But I also doubt Netflix plans to pour billions of dollars into challenging Amazon in the cutthroat e-commerce market.\nSo what's Netflix's game plan?\nInstead of comparing Netflix.shop to Disney or Amazon, investors should look at a Chinese tech company called Bilibili (NASDAQ:BILI) to understand Netflix's angle.\nBilibili operates a popular streaming-video platform for anime, comics, and gaming (ACG) content in China. It served 223 million monthly active users and 60 million daily active users last quarter.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nBilibili also operates an e-commerce site that sells tie-in products for its ACG franchises. The site is integrated with Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) Taobao marketplace and accounts for most of Bilibili's \"e-commerce and others\" revenue.\nBilibili's \"e-commerce and others\" revenue more than doubled last year and accounted for nearly 13% of its top line, which indicates a streaming-video platform that specializes in anime can operate a successful online marketplace for tie-in content.\nThat's probably why Netflix repeatedly mentioned \"anime\" in its press release for Netflix.shop.\nNetflix has added a lot of anime and gaming-related content to its streaming library in recent years, including Yasuke, Voltron, Castlevania, The Witcher, and its upcoming Assassin's Creed show. All that niche content could support the expansion of its marketplace for tie-in products, which would possibly lock in more viewers and generate additional revenue.\nNetflix could also offer exclusive discounts for its subscribers, which might convince more of its 208 million subscribers to become regular shoppers. That growth could also convince more companies to license its franchises for third-party products.\nThe bottom line\nNetflix's retail expansion is surprising but not unprecedented. Instead of comparing Netflix.shop to Disney or Amazon, investors would do well to study Bilibili to gauge Netflix's true growth potential.\nThis effort won't move the needle for Netflix anytime soon, but it shows the company is thinking out of the box to promote its franchises and enter new markets. These strategies could help Netflix remain competitive as Disney, Amazon, and other challengers all ramp up their streaming investments.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160967249,"gmtCreate":1623769864181,"gmtModify":1634028546875,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160967249","repostId":"1150591447","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150591447","pubTimestamp":1623769391,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150591447?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 23:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's a complete trader playbook for every outcome from the key Fed meeting","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150591447","media":"CNBC","summary":"The Federal Reserve’s all-important policy meeting this week is going to affect where investors put ","content":"<div>\n<p>The Federal Reserve’s all-important policy meeting this week is going to affect where investors put their money to work going forward.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee,which will conclude its two-day...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/15/heres-a-complete-trader-playbook-for-every-outcome-from-the-key-fed-meeting.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's a complete trader playbook for every outcome from the key Fed meeting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's a complete trader playbook for every outcome from the key Fed meeting\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 23:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/15/heres-a-complete-trader-playbook-for-every-outcome-from-the-key-fed-meeting.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Federal Reserve’s all-important policy meeting this week is going to affect where investors put their money to work going forward.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee,which will conclude its two-day...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/15/heres-a-complete-trader-playbook-for-every-outcome-from-the-key-fed-meeting.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/15/heres-a-complete-trader-playbook-for-every-outcome-from-the-key-fed-meeting.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1150591447","content_text":"The Federal Reserve’s all-important policy meeting this week is going to affect where investors put their money to work going forward.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee,which will conclude its two-day meeting Wednesday, could start preliminary discussions about scaling back the unprecedented bond-buying programs that aided the economy during the pandemic. Some market participants believe it’s still too soon for the central bank to signal such a tapering action, while others think the Fed will be able to find a happy medium that won’t upset the markets.\nEach scenario has different investing implications as they are expected to make big moves across asset classes.\nHere’s a playbook for traders on every scenario from the central bank’s key meeting.\nIf the Fed signals it’s staying with easy policies\nThe Fed could reiterate its transitory stance on inflation, ignoring the pick-up in price pressures reflected in recent economic data. If the central bank says its not time to remove accommodative policies and it’s not concerned about inflation, investors should stick with hedges against rising prices like commodities and stocks with high pricing power, investment banks found.\nBank of America screened S&P 500 companies that its analysts believe have the most pricing power and ability to expand margins at times of rising prices. The stocks include a few chipmakers —Nvidia,Texas InstrumentsandBroadcom— as well as consumer plays likeHome Depot,NikeandPepsiCo.Energy dividend payerExxon Mobilis also on the list.\nUBS also developed a framework for scoring corporate pricing agility, which considers pricing power, margin momentum and input cost exposure. For pricing power, UBS quantified the extent to which a company can raise prices over and above costs. For margin momentum, UBS tracked corporate pricing trends using its proprietary pricing mapping.\nFor input cost exposure, UBS searched for companies with negative sentiment around commodity and transport costs on earnings calls.\n\nBillionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones said earlier this week that investors should “go all in on the inflation trades” if the Fed keeps ignoring higher prices.\n“If they treat these numbers — which were material events, they were very material —if they treat them with nonchalance, I think it’s just a green light to bet heavily on every inflation trade,” Tudor Jones said on “Squawk Box”on Monday.\n“If they say, ‘We’re on path, things are good,’ then I would just go all in on the inflation trades. I’d probably buy commodities, buy crypto, buy gold,” added Tudor Jones, who called the stock market crash in 1987.\nThe legendary investor believe cryptocurrencies and other commodities are favorable inflation hedges. Other than buying the commodities outright, investors could also bet on related exchange-traded funds, like gold miner ETFs.\nThe VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX),the biggest gold miner ETF with more than $14 billion in assets under management, has outperformed the populargold ETF GLDso far this year.\nIf the Fed signals it’s time to start removing easy policies\nAnother widely speculated scenario is for the Fed to signal that it’s nearing the time to dial back easy policy saying it will start tapering soon and move up its forecast for a rate increase. Under such a case where the central bank isn’t sufficiently dovish, many expect bond yields to shoot higher.\n“It could easily move longer yields higher,” said Kristina Hooper, Invesco’s chief global market strategist. “A revised dot plot could be one way to do that if it shows the anticipation of earlier or more aggressive rate hikes. And Fed Chair Jay Powell could easily push rates up if he shares that the Fed has started discussing tapering or suggests tapering could start in the next several months.”\nTudor Jones warned that this scenario could lead to another taper tantrum that could cause a correction in stocks.\n“If they course correct, if they say, ‘We’ve got incoming data, we’ve accomplished our mission or we’re on the way very rapidly to accomplishing our mission on employment,’ then you’re going to get a taper tantrum,”Tudor Jones said on Monday. “You’re going to get a sell-off in fixed income. You’re going to get a correction in stocks.”\nCNBC Pro combed through the returns of all S&P 500 stocks during the last five significant spikes in the 10-year Treasury yield. These five periods of a sharp move in rates occurred between 2003 and 2006, 2008 and 2009, 2012 and 2013, 2016 and 2018, and 2020 through now.\nAfter we found the stocks that beat the market every time, we looked for the names that are well-loved by analysts on Wall Street today. The stocks’ average gains during those rising interest rate periods are listed below, along with the percentage of analysts with buy ratings right now.\n\nBank of America’s head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy Savita Subramanian is advising clients to buy high-quality stocks when tapering nears. High-quality stocks have a “B+” or better S&P quality rating.\nSubramanian said during the 2013 taper tantrum, high-quality names outperformed their low-quality counterparts by 1.3 percentage points from peak to trough in May and June.\nA hint at removing stimulus could also hurt stocks that are most sensitive to the economic recovery, including cyclicals like financials, energy and materials.\n“More hawkish = lower growth. Cyclicals should underperform,” Dennis DeBusschere, macro research analyst at Evercore ISI, said in a note. “The fact that hawkish concerns are being brought up at the same time people believe the reflation trade is in trouble and you have a poor Cyclical backdrop.”\nSo far in 2021, the energy sector has been the biggest winner among the 11 S&P 500 groupings, up 46%. Financials and real estate both gained more than 20% this year.\nIf the Fed makes both camps happy\nA third scenario could occur in which the Fed signals that it is concerned about inflation, but the central bank is not yet ready to taper.\nIf Fed chair Jerome Powell admits the discussion of tapering but nothing has been decided, then the market will likely see a modest rally, led by tech stocks, according to Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report.\n“This is essentially the outcome that Powell and the Fed have been telegraphing for the past several weeks,” Essaye said. “This would be a continuation of the past two weeks’ Goldilocks market outlook. This outcome would help the S&P 500 extend last week’s breakout.”\nInvestors have been rotating back to tech as of late with bond yields coming down. The tech-heavyNasdaq Compositehas rallied about 2.5% this month, hitting a record close on Monday, its first all-time high since April 26. In comparison, the S&P 500 has risen just under 1% in June.\n“This is what the Fed has been doing for the last several months — warning that an inflation surge was coming but that it is transitory so no need to taper,” Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group, told CNBC. “Moreover, this is probably the most expected outcome from the Fed meeting.”\n“Yes, there may be comments by members that the time to start talking about tapering is here, but I think Powell will continue to suggest that inflation is up as expected but is not yet acting any differently than anticipated,” added Paulsen.\nThis year’s pullback in tech stocks has opened some opportunities in high-quality names that are now trading at a discount, according to top-rated technology analyst Toni Sacconaghi of Bernstein.\nThe Wall Street firm found several technology stocks that have inexpensive valuations and are high in quality. Bernstein screened for the cheapest tech names based on their forward price-to-earnings ratio. 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