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YinFai
2021-06-27
希望油价起，股市油股也起！😄
抱歉，原内容已删除
YinFai
2021-05-08
希望是吧！
抱歉，原内容已删除
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08:35","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"国际油价“高歌猛进”，市场静待下周欧佩克+会议","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181161116","media":"期货日报","summary":"本周，受国际油价持续上涨影响，能化系期货品种大幅走强，但板块间各品种走势却出现分化。其中，LPG和沥青期货走势偏强。\n“与原油相比，今年沥青一直处于偏弱状态，主要是自身基本面出了较大的问题。”招金期货","content":"<div>\n<p>本周，受国际油价持续上涨影响，能化系期货品种大幅走强，但板块间各品种走势却出现分化。其中，LPG和沥青期货走势偏强。\n“与原油相比，今年沥青一直处于偏弱状态，主要是自身基本面出了较大的问题。”招金期货分析师于竼森告诉期货日报记者，沥青行业的开工率并没有超越去年，甚至比往年同期还要偏低，需求一直未能启动，且库存逼近近8年来的历史高位。\n在于竼森看来，当前仍处于雨季，沥青的实际需求偏弱，库存也在4季度...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cls.cn/detail/777596\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"qihuoribao","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>国际油价“高歌猛进”，市场静待下周欧佩克+会议</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n国际油价“高歌猛进”，市场静待下周欧佩克+会议\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-27 08:35 北京时间 <a href=https://www.cls.cn/detail/777596><strong>期货日报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本周，受国际油价持续上涨影响，能化系期货品种大幅走强，但板块间各品种走势却出现分化。其中，LPG和沥青期货走势偏强。\n“与原油相比，今年沥青一直处于偏弱状态，主要是自身基本面出了较大的问题。”招金期货分析师于竼森告诉期货日报记者，沥青行业的开工率并没有超越去年，甚至比往年同期还要偏低，需求一直未能启动，且库存逼近近8年来的历史高位。\n在于竼森看来，当前仍处于雨季，沥青的实际需求偏弱，库存也在4季度...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cls.cn/detail/777596\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef375710aa7a4298de56c8827d8139df","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)"},"source_url":"https://www.cls.cn/detail/777596","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181161116","content_text":"本周，受国际油价持续上涨影响，能化系期货品种大幅走强，但板块间各品种走势却出现分化。其中，LPG和沥青期货走势偏强。\n“与原油相比，今年沥青一直处于偏弱状态，主要是自身基本面出了较大的问题。”招金期货分析师于竼森告诉期货日报记者，沥青行业的开工率并没有超越去年，甚至比往年同期还要偏低，需求一直未能启动，且库存逼近近8年来的历史高位。\n在于竼森看来，当前仍处于雨季，沥青的实际需求偏弱，库存也在4季度前很难出现下滑，因此沥青期货本周的强势上涨，更多是受油价上涨的影响，成本提高推动沥青价格上涨。\n此外，消息面的利好来自于市场关于国家针对地炼企业原油配额缩减问题的解读。部分机构认为，国家今年1—2批次进口原油配额相对去年有了明显的缩量，叠加前期针对稀释沥青的加税问题，会造成地炼企业原材料价格上涨及原材料紧缺，从而导致后期的沥青产量会有所下滑。那么在旺季来临之后，沥青可能会面临比较快速的去库存，而不是前期预期的全年都处于高库存之下。\n尽管沥青本周表现极为强势，远强于其他油品。但有业内人士认为沥青盘面明显超涨，后期走势可能相对于其他油品更弱。\n过去一周，随着市场逐步认识到“稀释沥青”可能长期短缺的问题，对于远期沥青炼厂供应产生担忧，市场看多情绪加重。但在国泰君安期货分析师黄柳楠看来，短期交易视角不应过分聚焦远期市场。“当前山东地区现货对于沥青期货主力合约2109合约的贴水已经超过300元/吨，无风险套利窗口大幅敞开，且沥青与高、低硫燃料油的价差也逼近今年以来的高位，估值已经偏高。”\n“从供需面看，当前绝对库存依旧处于历史最高位，未来2个月不太可能出现缺货的情况，因此沥青利润修复的驱动并不强。”黄柳楠表示，由于今年国内信用扩张停滞，基建工程减少，未来2个月需求端可能不会有逆季节性的扩张，近两日盘面超涨的溢价可能在未来逐步回吐。“考虑到油价下半年重心上移的确定性，沥青价格未来挑战4000元/吨的可能性依旧较大，只是短期背离油价的强势难以持续。”\n值得注意的是，本周LPG期货价格连创新高。东证期货衍生品研究院大宗商品研究主管金晓告诉期货日报记者，一方面，受益于油价持续上涨，相应抬升了LPG期价中枢。另一方面，海外LPG掉期价格在沙特传出出口收紧的消息刺激下一路狂奔。“即将出台的7月沙特CP丙烷价格预计会超过620美元/吨，较上月大涨近100美元/吨，未来进口成本增加的预期是近期国内期价上行的重要驱动。”\nLPG消费本身有一定的季节性，随着主力合约从淡季逐渐转入旺季，市场对旺季抱有期待，乐观情绪在市场中占主导。\n在金晓看来，LPG基本面预期较好。从最新的气象预测来看今年秋冬大概率是中性状态，在12月前后有略超50%的概率转为拉尼娜，未来随着天气转冷燃料消费将有正常的季节性回升。在化工原料需求上，今年全年国内预计有4套PDH新装置投产，此外还有一些可灵活切换原料的乙烯裂解新装置未来可以消化前端炼能扩张带来的LPG国产气增量。“总体上，国内需求增速快于供给增速。这部分需求缺口会对应到国内的进口气增量，是全球需求增量的重要组成部分，亚洲地区LPG价格受到支撑，对国内也意味着进口成本相比去年同期易涨难跌。”\n不过，目前LPG基本面国内外分化的格局短期内仍将持续。据国投安信期货分析师李祖智介绍，国内市场受广州疫情和国产气外放压力增长的影响，价格已显疲态，终端销售压力不断放大。但国际市场方面，美国库存维持低位，而中东短期内增产预期仍不明朗，年内主要潜在供给增量的伊朗也因谈判节奏放缓而有所推迟，国际市场紧平衡格局下的推高动力仍然存在。“在市场格局暂无拐点迹象，同时原油强势的背景下，盘面仍有一定上涨空间。”\n“LPG期价从半年度的时间维度上我们觉得上方仍有空间但过程可能会波折。”金晓认为，由于这一轮海外价格是偏事件驱动的推涨，目前LPG期价位置相对高位，短期要防范沙特消息反转供给边际宽松的回调风险。未来供需基本面环比改善预期可能是直到旺季前半段市场的主要交易逻辑。\n业内人士建议投资者关注下周即将举行的OPEC+会议，这是当前能化市场当前关注的焦点。如果增产幅度超出预期，油价回调的可能性依旧存在，也将一定程度上影响能化板块其他品种的价格走势。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":107907900,"gmtCreate":1620437066000,"gmtModify":1634198806986,"author":{"id":"3582514962740876","authorId":"3582514962740876","name":"YinFai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b3236777157d8b61a9865bda227804e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"希望是吧！","listText":"希望是吧！","text":"希望是吧！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107907900","repostId":"2133029965","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2133029965","pubTimestamp":1620436740,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2133029965?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-08 09:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"明星基金经理加仓被套、券商研报却力推 “榨茅”还有戏？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2133029965","media":"上海证券报 ","summary":" 但自2月以来，涪陵榨菜的股价却陡然掉头，相比高点54.20元/股，截至5月7日收盘价，已跌去近30%，已低于张坤、朱少醒等多位明星基金经理一季度的加仓价。 综合涪陵榨菜一季报数据显示，上述明星基金经理在今年一季度合计持有2681.45万股，加仓的部分超过1800万股。 从涪陵榨菜的收盘价来看，目前已低于上述明星基金经理的加仓价。","content":"<div>\n<p>投资研报国际机构罕见表态，储能行业这一关键材料竟成香饽饽？全面政策支持下，新增装机有望实现10倍增长！比黄金稀缺的金属，还能用来抗癌！燃料电池放量开启铂的新时代化工品供应链服务龙头，电商业务或迎高增！机构高呼“化工亚马逊”值得期待，看多30%上涨空间！碳排放核查指南重磅发布，碳资产管理将迎来风口？这些金属材料龙头正酝酿历史性投资机遇投资者口中的“榨茅”——涪陵榨菜，在一季度获得多位明星基金经理加仓...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2021-05-07/doc-ikmxzfmm1088324.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>投资研报国际机构罕见表态，储能行业这一关键材料竟成香饽饽？全面政策支持下，新增装机有望实现10倍增长！比黄金稀缺的金属，还能用来抗癌！燃料电池放量开启铂的新时代化工品供应链服务龙头，电商业务或迎高增！机构高呼“化工亚马逊”值得期待，看多30%上涨空间！碳排放核查指南重磅发布，碳资产管理将迎来风口？这些金属材料龙头正酝酿历史性投资机遇投资者口中的“榨茅”——涪陵榨菜，在一季度获得多位明星基金经理加仓...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2021-05-07/doc-ikmxzfmm1088324.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cde2e4fc86b629e1a7a7708ea53eb694","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2021-05-07/doc-ikmxzfmm1088324.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2133029965","content_text":"投资研报国际机构罕见表态，储能行业这一关键材料竟成香饽饽？全面政策支持下，新增装机有望实现10倍增长！比黄金稀缺的金属，还能用来抗癌！燃料电池放量开启铂的新时代化工品供应链服务龙头，电商业务或迎高增！机构高呼“化工亚马逊”值得期待，看多30%上涨空间！碳排放核查指南重磅发布，碳资产管理将迎来风口？这些金属材料龙头正酝酿历史性投资机遇投资者口中的“榨茅”——涪陵榨菜，在一季度获得多位明星基金经理加仓。但自2月以来，涪陵榨菜的股价却陡然掉头，相比高点54.20元/股，截至5月7日收盘价，已跌去近30%，已低于张坤、朱少醒等多位明星基金经理一季度的加仓价。另一边，近期有超过20份券商研报对涪陵榨菜给予了“买入”或“增持”评级，且平均目标价为47.33元，显著高于当前股价。难倒，抄底的机会来了？明星基金经理纷纷买入随着今年一季报的发布，涪陵榨菜前十大流通股东也发生了巨大变化，多位明星基金经理，如张坤、朱少醒、袁芳、杨锐文等，纷纷现身其中。综合涪陵榨菜一季报数据显示，上述明星基金经理在今年一季度合计持有2681.45万股，加仓的部分超过1800万股。其中，朱少醒管理的富国天惠精选新晋该股第4大流通股东，持有900.31万股，占流通股的1.16%，期末持股市值为3.78亿元。在2020年年末，富国天惠精选持有350.64万股，相当于朱少醒加仓近550万股，加仓比例为157%。同时，新进该股的还有张坤管理的易方达中小盘，是该股第6大流通股东，持有750.01万股，占流通股的0.96%，期末持股市值为3.15亿元。从易方达中小盘2020年报来看，其持有涪陵榨菜260.01万股，相当于张坤在今年一季度加仓了490万股，加仓比例超过188%。此外，袁芳管理的工银瑞信文体产业加仓比例也接近140%，新进涪陵榨菜成为第8大股东；杨锐文管理的景顺长城成长龙头一年持有期，一季度买入涪陵榨菜505.38万股，成为第9大流通股东。值得注意的是，其他机构资金如陆股通、全国社保基金一一七组合、以及广发老将傅友兴管理的广发稳健回报在一季度进行了减仓操作。全国社保基金一一七组合从去年四季度以来，一直在小幅减仓。傅友兴是在去年四季度新进成为涪陵榨菜成为6大股东，随即在今年一季度进行了减仓操作，减仓比例约23%。股价已低于基金经理加仓价从涪陵榨菜的收盘价来看，目前已低于上述明星基金经理的加仓价。今年一季度，涪陵榨菜“先扬后抑”，1月以来涪陵榨菜震荡前行至高点54.20元，随后一路下跌至最低点38.90元，截至一季度末收盘价42.01元。四月份以来，涪陵榨菜仍未改下跌趋势，一度跌至37.61元，截至最新收盘价为38.50元，仍低于一季度整体的股价，意味着上述基金经理新加仓的部分处于浮亏状态。结合公司去年年报及今年一季报来看，涪陵榨菜的盈利增速其实略超预期。数据显示，2020 年公司实现营收 22.73 亿元，同比增长14.23%；净利润7.77亿元，同比增长28.42%；扣非归母净利润7.59亿元，同比增长34.72%。今年一季度实现营收7.09亿元，同比增长46.9%；净利润2.03亿元，同比增长22.73%；扣非归母净利润2.01亿元，同比增长27.82%。多份研报分析提到，去年同期营业收入基数较低，但在青菜头原材料价格上涨且公司加大营销费用投放的背景下，涪陵榨菜今年一季度利润增速略超预期。但超预期的增长，目前来看并未给涪陵榨菜的股价带来正向刺激，市值较高峰期已跌去一百多亿元。此外据上证报记者统计，涪陵榨菜近三月内，获得24份券商研报关注，给予买入评级16家，增持评级8家，平均目标价为47.33元，与最新价38.50元相比，高出8.83元，目标均价涨幅22.9%。涪陵榨菜值得关注吗？从多份研报来看，目前市场主要担忧点集中在原材料产量不足、价格上涨过快和销售费用投放效果不及预期。民生证券分析，预计涪陵榨菜2021年收入端弹性较大，但中长期成长逻辑清晰。短期来看，2021年公司持续推进渠道下沉叠加产品提价，将进一步拉动收入增长。在成本方面，原料青菜头收购价格持续走高，但公司通过产品提价和缩量换装予以对冲，预计毛利率压力仍在可控范围内。但公司在今年逐渐加大线上与线下的费用投放，费用率预计大概率将显著高于去年。长期来看，公司原以C端为主，现正大力拓展餐饮渠道，长期看好B端放量。通过品类扩张在乌江渠道中铺开，未来有望摆脱增长瓶颈。此外，募集资金加码产能，包括40.7万吨原料窖池、20万吨榨菜生产车间与配套设施，预计将为渠道外延提供有力支撑。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":845,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
