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2021-06-23

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These 3 Warren Buffett Stocks Will Help You Beat the Next Stock Market Crash

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The Fed In A Box, Part 1: They Cannot Raise Interest Rates

2021-06-23

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Chinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday

2021-06-22

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These 3 Dow Stocks Are Set to Soar in 2021's Second Half

2021-06-21

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U.S. IPO Week Ahead: Billion-Dollar Deals Come To Market In A 12 IPO Week

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After more than half a century at <b>Berkshire Hathaway </b>(NYSE:BRK.A) (NYSE:BRK.B), Buffett continues to contribute to the collective knowledge base through his witty, down-to-earth comments on the state of the stock market and his preferred investing strategy.</p>\n<p>Buffett would be the first to tell you that a stock market crash is inevitable, and when a long bull-market run ends, investors finally get a chance to see which stocks have strong businesses underpinning their long-term success. Below, you'll find three Warren Buffett holdings that should help investors weather the coming stock market storm. They won't necessarily avoid losses entirely in a crash, but they have the long-term staying power to recover for their shareholders.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83be5a41077ce17c2e4391b5b8225228\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>\n<p>Verizon Communications</p>\n<p><b>Verizon Communications </b>(NYSE:VZ), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of Buffett's more recent stock picks, first became part of the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio in the fourth quarter of 2020. However, the Oracle of Omaha hasn't pulled any punches in making the wireless telecom giant a major part of his holdings, as the stake in Verizon amounts to $9.2 billion and ranks sixth among Berkshire's list of stocks.</p>\n<p>Verizon checks many of the boxes that Buffett looks for in a great investment. As the leading provider of wireless telecom services, Verizon has played a key role in furthering technological advances and the mobile revolution. Although investing in upgraded 5G network technology will be costly, Verizon has demonstrated its ability to maintain some pricing power despite strong competition from other providers.</p>\n<p>The steady stream of monthly subscription charges gives Verizon impressive levels of cash flow that the company has returned to shareholders through dividends. Verizon's stock yields 4.5% currently, yet with an earnings multiple in the low teens, the telecom giant is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the few areas in which traditional value metrics suggest a bargain opportunity. With a combination of growth prospects and stable and consistent dividend income, Verizon is a standard pick for Buffett's methodology.</p>\n<h3>General Motors</h3>\n<p><b>General Motors </b>(NYSE:GM) has been in the Berkshire portfolio a lot longer, with purchases dating back to early 2012. At that time, GM was just emerging from its financial crisis-induced bankruptcy filing, having wiped out previous stock investors. Many investors were uncertain whether the Big 3 automaker would ever return to its former glory.</p>\n<p>Fast forward nearly a decade, and General Motors looks a lot different. The automaker has embraced the electric vehicle (EV) movement, recently boosting its commitment toward EV investment from $20 billion to $35 billion over the next four years. The company's Cruise subsidiary has made dramatic advances in autonomous driving, becoming the first company to offer ride-hailing services without a safety driver to California riders. Meanwhile, GM itself expects to introduce at least 30 new EV models by 2025, including electric versions of some iconic brand models. A big part of its success hinges on its Ultium in-house battery platform, but GM isn't being stingy about putting financial resources behind its efforts.</p>\n<p>General Motors doesn't pay a dividend, but an earnings multiple below 10 shows that most investors are discounting the automaker's growth potential. Buffett has often made a killing by betting against the crowd in situations like this, and he clearly sees greater prospects for GM than do most investors. Despite trimming its GM position recently, Berkshire still counts the automaker among its top 10 holdings.</p>\n<h3>Kroger</h3>\n<p>Finally, Berkshire recently boosted its position in grocery giant <b>Kroger </b>(NYSE:KR). Buffett now owns about $1.8 billion worth of Kroger stock, giving it a nearly 7% stake in the company.</p>\n<p>Kroger has a reliable business in consumer staples that has prospered over the past year and a half. Huge demand for necessities helped bolster Kroger's stock early on in the COVID-19 pandemic, and the grocery chain has managed to build on that upward momentum to keep moving forward in 2021. Even as the company faces difficult comparisons over the rest of the year, Kroger is managing to surpass expectations in holding onto more of its gains.</p>\n<p>With an earnings multiple above 20 and a dividend yield of less than 2%, Kroger might not seem like the most attractive of Warren Buffett stocks. However, its ability to hold up well even under difficult business conditions makes it a valuable holding, and dividend growth over the long run has helped reward longtime shareholders.</p>\n<h3>Be ready for the crash</h3>\n<p>The stock market has done extremely well lately, but smart investors are always ready for what could come next. With their attractive traits, Kroger, General Motors, and Verizon all have a lot going for them, and they're in a better position than many other stocks to weather the next stock market crash and keep growing over the long run.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 3 Warren Buffett Stocks Will Help You Beat the Next Stock Market Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 3 Warren Buffett Stocks Will Help You Beat the Next Stock Market Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 21:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/these-3-warren-buffett-stocks-will-help-you-beat-t/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It's hard to overemphasize the positive impact that legendary investor Warren Buffett has had on the investing world. After more than half a century at Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A) (NYSE:BRK.B), ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/these-3-warren-buffett-stocks-will-help-you-beat-t/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","VZ":"威瑞森","GM":"通用汽车","KR":"克罗格"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/these-3-warren-buffett-stocks-will-help-you-beat-t/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145950390","content_text":"It's hard to overemphasize the positive impact that legendary investor Warren Buffett has had on the investing world. After more than half a century at Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A) (NYSE:BRK.B), Buffett continues to contribute to the collective knowledge base through his witty, down-to-earth comments on the state of the stock market and his preferred investing strategy.\nBuffett would be the first to tell you that a stock market crash is inevitable, and when a long bull-market run ends, investors finally get a chance to see which stocks have strong businesses underpinning their long-term success. Below, you'll find three Warren Buffett holdings that should help investors weather the coming stock market storm. They won't necessarily avoid losses entirely in a crash, but they have the long-term staying power to recover for their shareholders.\n\nImage source: The Motley Fool.\nVerizon Communications\nVerizon Communications (NYSE:VZ), one of Buffett's more recent stock picks, first became part of the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio in the fourth quarter of 2020. However, the Oracle of Omaha hasn't pulled any punches in making the wireless telecom giant a major part of his holdings, as the stake in Verizon amounts to $9.2 billion and ranks sixth among Berkshire's list of stocks.\nVerizon checks many of the boxes that Buffett looks for in a great investment. As the leading provider of wireless telecom services, Verizon has played a key role in furthering technological advances and the mobile revolution. Although investing in upgraded 5G network technology will be costly, Verizon has demonstrated its ability to maintain some pricing power despite strong competition from other providers.\nThe steady stream of monthly subscription charges gives Verizon impressive levels of cash flow that the company has returned to shareholders through dividends. Verizon's stock yields 4.5% currently, yet with an earnings multiple in the low teens, the telecom giant is one of the few areas in which traditional value metrics suggest a bargain opportunity. With a combination of growth prospects and stable and consistent dividend income, Verizon is a standard pick for Buffett's methodology.\nGeneral Motors\nGeneral Motors (NYSE:GM) has been in the Berkshire portfolio a lot longer, with purchases dating back to early 2012. At that time, GM was just emerging from its financial crisis-induced bankruptcy filing, having wiped out previous stock investors. Many investors were uncertain whether the Big 3 automaker would ever return to its former glory.\nFast forward nearly a decade, and General Motors looks a lot different. The automaker has embraced the electric vehicle (EV) movement, recently boosting its commitment toward EV investment from $20 billion to $35 billion over the next four years. The company's Cruise subsidiary has made dramatic advances in autonomous driving, becoming the first company to offer ride-hailing services without a safety driver to California riders. Meanwhile, GM itself expects to introduce at least 30 new EV models by 2025, including electric versions of some iconic brand models. A big part of its success hinges on its Ultium in-house battery platform, but GM isn't being stingy about putting financial resources behind its efforts.\nGeneral Motors doesn't pay a dividend, but an earnings multiple below 10 shows that most investors are discounting the automaker's growth potential. Buffett has often made a killing by betting against the crowd in situations like this, and he clearly sees greater prospects for GM than do most investors. Despite trimming its GM position recently, Berkshire still counts the automaker among its top 10 holdings.\nKroger\nFinally, Berkshire recently boosted its position in grocery giant Kroger (NYSE:KR). Buffett now owns about $1.8 billion worth of Kroger stock, giving it a nearly 7% stake in the company.\nKroger has a reliable business in consumer staples that has prospered over the past year and a half. Huge demand for necessities helped bolster Kroger's stock early on in the COVID-19 pandemic, and the grocery chain has managed to build on that upward momentum to keep moving forward in 2021. Even as the company faces difficult comparisons over the rest of the year, Kroger is managing to surpass expectations in holding onto more of its gains.\nWith an earnings multiple above 20 and a dividend yield of less than 2%, Kroger might not seem like the most attractive of Warren Buffett stocks. However, its ability to hold up well even under difficult business conditions makes it a valuable holding, and dividend growth over the long run has helped reward longtime shareholders.\nBe ready for the crash\nThe stock market has done extremely well lately, but smart investors are always ready for what could come next. With their attractive traits, Kroger, General Motors, and Verizon all have a lot going for them, and they're in a better position than many other stocks to weather the next stock market crash and keep growing over the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121177842,"gmtCreate":1624457726186,"gmtModify":1634005850086,"author":{"id":"3581839854871924","authorId":"3581839854871924","name":"Dabi2","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581839854871924","authorIdStr":"3581839854871924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121177842","repostId":"1191722749","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191722749","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624455982,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191722749?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 21:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed In A Box, Part 1: They Cannot Raise Interest Rates","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191722749","media":"zerohedge","summary":"3 Key Takeaways\n\nThe US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt\nMuch of the debt is short-term, mak","content":"<p><b>3 Key Takeaways</b></p>\n<ol>\n <li>The US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt</li>\n <li>Much of the debt is short-term, making it extra sensitive to higher rates</li>\n <li>Higher Interest Rates would immediately start putting strain on the Federal Budget</li>\n</ol>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>The US has over $28 Trillion dollars in debt and it continues to grow at an alarming rate. Even before COVID-19, the problem was becoming unwieldy. Ironically, despite adding $4T+ in debt over the last year, the pandemic may have given the US Government short-term reprieve as it gave the Federal Reserve a green light to drop rates back to zero.</p>\n<p>First and foremost, this took pressure off the Treasury as it refinanced the ballooning short-term debt outstanding at lower rates. However, even more relief occurred as the Federal Reserve absorbed +90% of the long term debt issued since last March. This allowed more room in the private markets to purchase the issuance of new short-term Treasury Bills. Because the Fed pays interest revenue back to the Treasury, and since interest rates on Treasury Bills are sitting at 0%, this has effectively given the Treasury a&nbsp;<b>$4.5T loan at 0% interest</b>&nbsp;in 15 months!</p>\n<p>While this sounds like a great deal, it comes with major risks and has now put the Fed in a box. This will be explained in detail over two articles. Part 1 will explain why the Fed can no longer raise interest rates, and Part 2 will show how the Fed is unable to taper and may even need to increase Treasury purchases to maintain control over the long end of the yield curve.</p>\n<p><b>$28 Trillion and Growing</b></p>\n<p>The US Government cannot stop spending money. Spending is now far in excess of what is being collected in tax revenues. The US economy continues to experience nominal increases in growth, which has increased Federal Tax receipts, but Federal Spending is growing far faster. Figure 1 below, shows this clear trend.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5576e9901f1f8310629d45af16836a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p>\n<p><i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p>\n<p>Excess spending has to be paid for using debt. This massive excess in spending has led to proliferate borrowing by the Federal Government resulting in over $28T in total debt outstanding. See figure 2 below.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed345b06ec4a35726fe7d9847937cf34\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p>\n<p><i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p>\n<p>For anyone struggling to wrap their mind around the size of $1T, please see this great&nbsp;visual. Now, multiply that by 28!</p>\n<p>For most governments, this would be unsustainable as interest rates would rise. This puts pressure on a borrower to bring down spending. The US Government has benefited from three major advantages that are not available to most governments. First, it has the exorbitant privilege of issuing the global reserve currency (for now), which creates far more demand for dollars than would otherwise be the case. The&nbsp;petro-dollar&nbsp;should have its own dedicated article, so that will be skipped in this analysis.</p>\n<p>It is important to highlight two other key facts that have allowed spending and borrowing to continue unabated. It has been able to borrow from the Social Security Trust Fund, and the Federal Reserve has absorbed a large chunk of debt issuance in recent years. Not only does this equate to $11T in interest-free loans (as all interest payments return back to the Treasury), but it has prevented the private markets from absorbing all new debt issuance keeping interest rates lower. As Figure 3 below shows, since Jan 2010, the private markets have “only” had to absorb $9T of the $14.5T issued.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dee6e735c0a3c1421eb321c0eae4b54\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p>\n<p><i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov andhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/</i></p>\n<p>Since Jan 2020, the numbers are even more stark. The Treasury has issued $4.5T, of which the Fed has taken on $2.6T (<i>Note: The Fed balance sheet has expanded by greater than $4T, but not all of this was Treasury Debt</i>). Looking deeper into the numbers shows the Fed had an even bigger appetite for longer-dated maturities. With Short Term rates at 0%, the Treasury can sell Treasury Bills to the private sector and still have an interest-free loan. Thus, it has been critical for the Fed to absorb almost all (~90%) the long-term debt issued by the Treasury to keep interest payments low!</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89bf299c6c054e65d3317aa72d0f686a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p>\n<p><i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p>\n<p><b>The Treasury has so far avoided higher interest payments</b></p>\n<p>Zooming back out, the three charts below show why the maneuvers over the last year have been so important. Take one more look at the US Debt load, this time categorized by vehicle. Non-Marketable is debt the government owes itself, Notes represent 1-10 year maturity, Bills less than 1 year, and Bonds &gt;10 years. The two charts below show both the absolute growth in debt and how the makeup of the debt has changed. Since 2008, Notes have experienced the largest growth increasing from 25% of total outstanding to 42%. Non-Marketable went the other way, shrinking from 45% to 25% as the Social Security Trust Fund is no longer a source to borrow from.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a144f0f9250c364637205e8bd0178bc0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p>\n<p><i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c1851784731b81544c30c5338624a03\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p>\n<p><i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p>\n<p>It is important to notice the growth in Treasury Bills above. Bills are the highest risk to the Treasury because higher interest rates will affect Bills within months, so it is important to note that in 2015 during the last rate hike cycle they accounted for only $1.4T but now make up $4.3T. This means every .25% rate hike will almost immediately add $10B to Federal spending. The chart below clearly shows the impact of the last interest rate hike cycle. The Pink line shows how Bills followed the Fed hike cycle topping out near 2.25%.</p>\n<p>If the Fed attempted to raise rates in a similar fashion it would immediately add $100B to Federal Spending on ONLY interest due for Treasury Bills. In a scenario where the Fed shrunk its balance sheet back to $1T (no more interest free loans) AND raised interest rates back to 4%, the Treasury would incur an extra $160B in interest rates for Treasury Bills and a whopping $290B on Treasury Notes! This would not factor in any new debt added over that time, which now includes an extra $.5T a year just on interest payments!</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04501c54f465fba412ffbf77b81a559f\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p>\n<p><i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p>\n<p>The chart below shows a much clearer impact of how falling interest rates have kept debt payments relatively stable for nearly 20 years. The chart shows the average weighted interest rate and the annualized monthly interest payments. The orange line (average weighted interest rate) is moving in direct opposition to the growth in debt seen above. In the last rate tightening cycle, the chart shows just how quickly higher interest rates increased the debt burden ($150B). The Fed owns very few Treasury Bills ($320B), so those interest payments are NOT returning to the Treasury.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c859933a1e991d3e6ba191ccb6a7609e\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p>\n<p><i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p>\n<p>One final chart to consider. How do these interest payments compare to tax revenue collected by the IRS? In this context, it becomes very clear how much impact the 2015 rate cycle increases had on debt payments.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/585708ace254d0b79ecddcc77c9c8ca0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p>\n<p><i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p>\n<p><b>Wrapping Up</b></p>\n<p>Nothing in this article should be surprising to anyone who even closely watches the US Debt situation or follows financial markets. The charts and graphs attempted to show the trends and put hard numbers behind what most people already know anecdotally. This article does not even touch on how devastating higher interest rates would be on the housing market, corporate debt market, and consumer debt market. Instead it only focuses on the Treasury, which just so happens to be run by the old chair of the Federal Reserve (Janet Yellen).</p>\n<p>None of this math is overly complex, and all the data is freely available on the Treasury and Fed website. This begs the question, does the Fed realize interest rates cannot go up or are they only looking in the rear-view mirror and assuming that an increase to 2.25% will be similar to 2015 which was “only” derailed by COVID-19? To reiterate, the drop in interest rates gave the Treasury&nbsp;<i>relief</i>&nbsp;from the higher interest payments. Next time they might not even get halfway to 2% with the added debt burden.<b>Unfortunately, for the Fed, their box is tighter than most realize.</b>If the Fed hasn’t figured it out by now,<b>even before they fail to raise interest rates, they will be unable taper Quantitative Easing (debt monetization) much less shrink their balance sheet, without serious consequences.</b>That data will be reviewed in Part 2. Stay tuned!</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed In A Box, Part 1: They Cannot Raise Interest Rates</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed In A Box, Part 1: They Cannot Raise Interest Rates\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 21:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-box-part-1-they-cannot-raise-interest-rates><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>3 Key Takeaways\n\nThe US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt\nMuch of the debt is short-term, making it extra sensitive to higher rates\nHigher Interest Rates would immediately start putting strain ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-box-part-1-they-cannot-raise-interest-rates\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-box-part-1-they-cannot-raise-interest-rates","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191722749","content_text":"3 Key Takeaways\n\nThe US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt\nMuch of the debt is short-term, making it extra sensitive to higher rates\nHigher Interest Rates would immediately start putting strain on the Federal Budget\n\nIntroduction\nThe US has over $28 Trillion dollars in debt and it continues to grow at an alarming rate. Even before COVID-19, the problem was becoming unwieldy. Ironically, despite adding $4T+ in debt over the last year, the pandemic may have given the US Government short-term reprieve as it gave the Federal Reserve a green light to drop rates back to zero.\nFirst and foremost, this took pressure off the Treasury as it refinanced the ballooning short-term debt outstanding at lower rates. However, even more relief occurred as the Federal Reserve absorbed +90% of the long term debt issued since last March. This allowed more room in the private markets to purchase the issuance of new short-term Treasury Bills. Because the Fed pays interest revenue back to the Treasury, and since interest rates on Treasury Bills are sitting at 0%, this has effectively given the Treasury a $4.5T loan at 0% interest in 15 months!\nWhile this sounds like a great deal, it comes with major risks and has now put the Fed in a box. This will be explained in detail over two articles. Part 1 will explain why the Fed can no longer raise interest rates, and Part 2 will show how the Fed is unable to taper and may even need to increase Treasury purchases to maintain control over the long end of the yield curve.\n$28 Trillion and Growing\nThe US Government cannot stop spending money. Spending is now far in excess of what is being collected in tax revenues. The US economy continues to experience nominal increases in growth, which has increased Federal Tax receipts, but Federal Spending is growing far faster. Figure 1 below, shows this clear trend.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nExcess spending has to be paid for using debt. This massive excess in spending has led to proliferate borrowing by the Federal Government resulting in over $28T in total debt outstanding. See figure 2 below.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nFor anyone struggling to wrap their mind around the size of $1T, please see this great visual. Now, multiply that by 28!\nFor most governments, this would be unsustainable as interest rates would rise. This puts pressure on a borrower to bring down spending. The US Government has benefited from three major advantages that are not available to most governments. First, it has the exorbitant privilege of issuing the global reserve currency (for now), which creates far more demand for dollars than would otherwise be the case. The petro-dollar should have its own dedicated article, so that will be skipped in this analysis.\nIt is important to highlight two other key facts that have allowed spending and borrowing to continue unabated. It has been able to borrow from the Social Security Trust Fund, and the Federal Reserve has absorbed a large chunk of debt issuance in recent years. Not only does this equate to $11T in interest-free loans (as all interest payments return back to the Treasury), but it has prevented the private markets from absorbing all new debt issuance keeping interest rates lower. As Figure 3 below shows, since Jan 2010, the private markets have “only” had to absorb $9T of the $14.5T issued.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov andhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/\nSince Jan 2020, the numbers are even more stark. The Treasury has issued $4.5T, of which the Fed has taken on $2.6T (Note: The Fed balance sheet has expanded by greater than $4T, but not all of this was Treasury Debt). Looking deeper into the numbers shows the Fed had an even bigger appetite for longer-dated maturities. With Short Term rates at 0%, the Treasury can sell Treasury Bills to the private sector and still have an interest-free loan. Thus, it has been critical for the Fed to absorb almost all (~90%) the long-term debt issued by the Treasury to keep interest payments low!\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nThe Treasury has so far avoided higher interest payments\nZooming back out, the three charts below show why the maneuvers over the last year have been so important. Take one more look at the US Debt load, this time categorized by vehicle. Non-Marketable is debt the government owes itself, Notes represent 1-10 year maturity, Bills less than 1 year, and Bonds >10 years. The two charts below show both the absolute growth in debt and how the makeup of the debt has changed. Since 2008, Notes have experienced the largest growth increasing from 25% of total outstanding to 42%. Non-Marketable went the other way, shrinking from 45% to 25% as the Social Security Trust Fund is no longer a source to borrow from.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nIt is important to notice the growth in Treasury Bills above. Bills are the highest risk to the Treasury because higher interest rates will affect Bills within months, so it is important to note that in 2015 during the last rate hike cycle they accounted for only $1.4T but now make up $4.3T. This means every .25% rate hike will almost immediately add $10B to Federal spending. The chart below clearly shows the impact of the last interest rate hike cycle. The Pink line shows how Bills followed the Fed hike cycle topping out near 2.25%.\nIf the Fed attempted to raise rates in a similar fashion it would immediately add $100B to Federal Spending on ONLY interest due for Treasury Bills. In a scenario where the Fed shrunk its balance sheet back to $1T (no more interest free loans) AND raised interest rates back to 4%, the Treasury would incur an extra $160B in interest rates for Treasury Bills and a whopping $290B on Treasury Notes! This would not factor in any new debt added over that time, which now includes an extra $.5T a year just on interest payments!\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nThe chart below shows a much clearer impact of how falling interest rates have kept debt payments relatively stable for nearly 20 years. The chart shows the average weighted interest rate and the annualized monthly interest payments. The orange line (average weighted interest rate) is moving in direct opposition to the growth in debt seen above. In the last rate tightening cycle, the chart shows just how quickly higher interest rates increased the debt burden ($150B). The Fed owns very few Treasury Bills ($320B), so those interest payments are NOT returning to the Treasury.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nOne final chart to consider. How do these interest payments compare to tax revenue collected by the IRS? In this context, it becomes very clear how much impact the 2015 rate cycle increases had on debt payments.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nWrapping Up\nNothing in this article should be surprising to anyone who even closely watches the US Debt situation or follows financial markets. The charts and graphs attempted to show the trends and put hard numbers behind what most people already know anecdotally. This article does not even touch on how devastating higher interest rates would be on the housing market, corporate debt market, and consumer debt market. Instead it only focuses on the Treasury, which just so happens to be run by the old chair of the Federal Reserve (Janet Yellen).\nNone of this math is overly complex, and all the data is freely available on the Treasury and Fed website. This begs the question, does the Fed realize interest rates cannot go up or are they only looking in the rear-view mirror and assuming that an increase to 2.25% will be similar to 2015 which was “only” derailed by COVID-19? To reiterate, the drop in interest rates gave the Treasury relief from the higher interest payments. Next time they might not even get halfway to 2% with the added debt burden.Unfortunately, for the Fed, their box is tighter than most realize.If the Fed hasn’t figured it out by now,even before they fail to raise interest rates, they will be unable taper Quantitative Easing (debt monetization) much less shrink their balance sheet, without serious consequences.That data will be reviewed in Part 2. Stay tuned!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":311,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121172904,"gmtCreate":1624457666008,"gmtModify":1634005852009,"author":{"id":"3581839854871924","authorId":"3581839854871924","name":"Dabi2","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581839854871924","authorIdStr":"3581839854871924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice read&nbsp;","listText":"Nice read&nbsp;","text":"Nice read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121172904","repostId":"1170395888","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170395888","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624457324,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170395888?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 22:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170395888","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 23) Most of Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.\n\nDo Hedge Funds Thin","content":"<p>(June 23)&nbsp;Most&nbsp;of&nbsp;Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57df6b30357b75fb3994787c3780885e\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Do Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?</b></p>\n<p>At first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/055cab6f7b38ad60f8784706fac000bf\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The largest stake in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.</p>\n<p>As industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.</p>\n<p>Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.</p>\n<p>As you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.</p>\n<p><b>TAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry</b></p>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>FY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.</li>\n <li>In 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.</li>\n <li>Unlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.</li>\n <li>With COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.</li>\n <li>We do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>TAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education &amp; parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.</p>\n<p>In China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.</p>\n<p>As parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.</p>\n<p><b>Decent financial results</b></p>\n<p>TAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0bea7dc26e41fa05c9d8fef1c355e7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>New market opportunities</b></p>\n<p>In the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.</p>\n<p>In 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c29976387d48527f1570b7fbf255f1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.</p>\n<p>TAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.</p>\n<p>The re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.</p>\n<p>TAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.</p>\n<p>Results from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.</p>\n<p><b>Less venture investment presence</b></p>\n<p>Since 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af6af29d7cc826e97357d73c53b7a51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>The entrance of tech giants</b></p>\n<p>Sales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.</p>\n<p>With upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.</p>\n<p>The education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.</p>\n<p><b>Allegation probe</b></p>\n<p>In April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.</p>\n<p>Two years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"</p>\n<p><b>Bottom line</b></p>\n<p>This might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.</p>\n<h3>Gaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced</h3>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).</li>\n <li>Adverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.</li>\n <li>Growth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.</li>\n <li>Despite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Newly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.</p>\n<p><b>Growing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels</b></p>\n<p>Worryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2602f4695bfb8d694d546b29bca897a\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p>\n<p>However, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.</p>\n<p><b>Adult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver</b></p>\n<p>Within the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98361534c62ba1d36e6adf2696116a49\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing</p>\n<p>Notably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.</p>\n<p><b>Online Regulations Remain the Key Concern</b></p>\n<p>Looking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.</p>\n<p>Any restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a96e5d1f7d5a8fb561314a81180e06dd\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source: GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p>\n<p><b>Final Take</b></p>\n<p>Overall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd579bffc2a24fd55d7ccc3346eae7cb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-23 22:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 23)&nbsp;Most&nbsp;of&nbsp;Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57df6b30357b75fb3994787c3780885e\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Do Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?</b></p>\n<p>At first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/055cab6f7b38ad60f8784706fac000bf\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The largest stake in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.</p>\n<p>As industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.</p>\n<p>Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.</p>\n<p>As you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.</p>\n<p><b>TAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry</b></p>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>FY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.</li>\n <li>In 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.</li>\n <li>Unlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.</li>\n <li>With COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.</li>\n <li>We do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>TAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education &amp; parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.</p>\n<p>In China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.</p>\n<p>As parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.</p>\n<p><b>Decent financial results</b></p>\n<p>TAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0bea7dc26e41fa05c9d8fef1c355e7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>New market opportunities</b></p>\n<p>In the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.</p>\n<p>In 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c29976387d48527f1570b7fbf255f1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.</p>\n<p>TAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.</p>\n<p>The re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.</p>\n<p>TAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.</p>\n<p>Results from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.</p>\n<p><b>Less venture investment presence</b></p>\n<p>Since 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af6af29d7cc826e97357d73c53b7a51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>The entrance of tech giants</b></p>\n<p>Sales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.</p>\n<p>With upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.</p>\n<p>The education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.</p>\n<p><b>Allegation probe</b></p>\n<p>In April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.</p>\n<p>Two years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"</p>\n<p><b>Bottom line</b></p>\n<p>This might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.</p>\n<h3>Gaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced</h3>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).</li>\n <li>Adverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.</li>\n <li>Growth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.</li>\n <li>Despite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Newly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.</p>\n<p><b>Growing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels</b></p>\n<p>Worryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2602f4695bfb8d694d546b29bca897a\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p>\n<p>However, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.</p>\n<p><b>Adult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver</b></p>\n<p>Within the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98361534c62ba1d36e6adf2696116a49\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing</p>\n<p>Notably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.</p>\n<p><b>Online Regulations Remain the Key Concern</b></p>\n<p>Looking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.</p>\n<p>Any restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a96e5d1f7d5a8fb561314a81180e06dd\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source: GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p>\n<p><b>Final Take</b></p>\n<p>Overall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd579bffc2a24fd55d7ccc3346eae7cb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TAL":"好未来","EDU":"新东方","GOTU":"高途"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170395888","content_text":"(June 23) Most of Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.\n\nDo Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?\nAt first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).\nThe largest stake in New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.\nAs industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.\nLet's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.\nAs you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.\nTAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry\nSummary\n\nFY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.\nIn 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.\nUnlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.\nWith COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.\nWe do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.\n\nTAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education & parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.\nIn China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.\nAs parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.\nDecent financial results\nTAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.\nNew market opportunities\nIn the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.\nIn 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.\n\nThe fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.\nTAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.\nThe re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.\nTAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.\nResults from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.\nLess venture investment presence\nSince 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.\n\nThe entrance of tech giants\nSales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.\nWith upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.\nThe education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.\nAllegation probe\nIn April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.\nTwo years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"\nBottom line\nThis might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.\nGaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced\nSummary\n\nThe longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).\nAdverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.\nGrowth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.\nDespite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.\n\nNewly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.\nGrowing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels\nWorryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).\n\nSource:GSX Investor Presentation Slides\nHowever, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.\nAdult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver\nWithin the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.\n\nSource:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing\nNotably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.\nOnline Regulations Remain the Key Concern\nLooking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.\nAny restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.\n\nSource: GSX Investor Presentation Slides\nFinal Take\nOverall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.\nData by YCharts","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129607719,"gmtCreate":1624370205331,"gmtModify":1634007144172,"author":{"id":"3581839854871924","authorId":"3581839854871924","name":"Dabi2","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581839854871924","authorIdStr":"3581839854871924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I need T","listText":"I need T","text":"I need T","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129607719","repostId":"1119119362","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129602996,"gmtCreate":1624370101115,"gmtModify":1634007146325,"author":{"id":"3581839854871924","authorId":"3581839854871924","name":"Dabi2","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581839854871924","authorIdStr":"3581839854871924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129602996","repostId":"1187133273","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129603872,"gmtCreate":1624370032496,"gmtModify":1634007148457,"author":{"id":"3581839854871924","authorId":"3581839854871924","name":"Dabi2","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581839854871924","authorIdStr":"3581839854871924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129603872","repostId":"2145056554","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145056554","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1624356900,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2145056554?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 18:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 3 Dow Stocks Are Set to Soar in 2021's Second Half","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145056554","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Here are the companies investors are most excited about -- and why.","content":"<p>The <b>Dow Jones Industrial Average </b>(DJINDICES:^DJI) has had a solid year so far in 2021. Gains of 9% might not seem like all that much compared to the double-digit percentage gains we've seen in past years. But given everything that's happening in the economy, it's not surprising to see investors rein in their expectations somewhat on some of the top-performing stocks in the market.</p>\n<p>Yet even with the gains the overall market has seen, there are still some Dow stocks that haven't climbed as far as they might. In particular, analysts looking at three stocks among the Dow Jones Industrials see the potential for substantial gains in the second half of 2021 and beyond. Below, we'll look at these three companies to see what it'll take for them to produce the big returns that investors want right now.</p>\n<h3>UnitedHealth: 34% upside</h3>\n<p><b>UnitedHealth Group </b>(NYSE:UNH) has already put in a reasonable performance in the Dow so far this year. The health insurance giant's stock is up about 11% year to date, outpacing the broader average very slightly.</p>\n<p>Yet investors see a lot more upside for the healthcare giant. The top price target among Wall Street analysts for UnitedHealth is $522 per share, which implies roughly a 34% gain from current levels.</p>\n<p>UnitedHealth has done an excellent job of navigating the ever-changing landscape of the healthcare and health insurance industries. As the largest health insurance company in the world, UnitedHealth offers coverage not just for private businesses but also for those eligible for government programs like Medicare and Medicaid.</p>\n<p>Indeed, UnitedHealth's handling of plans under the Affordable Care Act has been masterful, with the company having participated in the program better known as Obamacare while not overcommitting to it. With the Supreme Court having recently upheld the validity of the Affordable Care Act, UnitedHealth finds itself in a strong position to keep benefiting from its mix of business.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe66b7aafd67e07dd42007f2b60d638\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>\n<p>Yet many overlook the value of UnitedHealth's Optum health services unit. By aiming to help providers encourage health and wellness, Optum generates higher-margin revenue while often producing better outcomes for patients and members. With both growth drivers pushing the company forward, UnitedHealth looks well poised to keep climbing.</p>\n<h3>Goldman Sachs: 36% upside</h3>\n<p>Wall Street has enjoyed the bull market in stocks, and that's been a blessing for investment bank <b>Goldman Sachs </b>(NYSE:GS). The perennial financial giant has seen its stock rise 34% so far in 2021 after less impressive performance during 2020.</p>\n<p>On <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> hand, Goldman has reflected the broader performance of financial stocks across the market. Interest rates have generally been on the rise, and that's bolstered the prospects for more net-interest income from retail banking operations. Goldman lags behind its big-bank peers on the consumer banking front, but its relatively new Marcus unit has done a good job of attracting capital thus far.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, Goldman continues to rely on its investment banking operations, and strong activity levels among initial public offerings and mergers and acquisitions (M&amp;A) have fed the company's coffers nicely. Financing remains relatively easy to get, and that could spur more M&amp;A activity that in turn could keep growing revenue for Goldman's investment banking division. Add to that possible tailwinds from macroeconomic factors, and it is in a solid position to climb as high as the $484 per share that represents the top price target among those following the financial stock.</p>\n<h3>Apple: 42% upside</h3>\n<p>Lastly, <b>Apple </b>(NASDAQ:AAPL) rounds out this list. Recently fetching $130 per share, some see the iPhone maker's stock climbing to $185. That'd be a 42% jump to help Apple recover from its 2% loss so far in 2021.</p>\n<p>Apple's gains have continued to impress. Revenue jumped 54% in its most recent quarter, with sales of the iPhone 12 and various other products and accessories continuing to drive sales for the company. Returning capital to shareholders via dividends and stock buybacks has had a substantial impact on financial performance, especially with the number of outstanding shares having plunged by roughly 35% in just the past decade.</p>\n<p>Many fear that Apple hasn't generated the innovative product lines that drove its success in the mid-2000s. However, at least for now, consumers seem content with iterations on existing product lines, and as long as that remains a successful strategy, further gains for the stock seem realistic.</p>\n<h3>Further to run?</h3>\n<p>Even with solid gains for the Dow in 2021, the long-term trajectory for stocks remains upward. That's a big part of why Apple, Goldman Sachs, and UnitedHealth Group look as promising as they do. Smart investors should at least keep an eye on these three stocks to see if they can live up to their full potential.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 3 Dow Stocks Are Set to Soar in 2021's Second Half</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 3 Dow Stocks Are Set to Soar in 2021's Second Half\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-22 18:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/22/these-3-dow-stocks-set-to-soar-2021s-second-half/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES:^DJI) has had a solid year so far in 2021. Gains of 9% might not seem like all that much compared to the double-digit percentage gains we've seen in past ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/22/these-3-dow-stocks-set-to-soar-2021s-second-half/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛","09086":"华夏纳指-U","03086":"华夏纳指","AAPL":"苹果","UNH":"联合健康"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/22/these-3-dow-stocks-set-to-soar-2021s-second-half/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145056554","content_text":"The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES:^DJI) has had a solid year so far in 2021. Gains of 9% might not seem like all that much compared to the double-digit percentage gains we've seen in past years. But given everything that's happening in the economy, it's not surprising to see investors rein in their expectations somewhat on some of the top-performing stocks in the market.\nYet even with the gains the overall market has seen, there are still some Dow stocks that haven't climbed as far as they might. In particular, analysts looking at three stocks among the Dow Jones Industrials see the potential for substantial gains in the second half of 2021 and beyond. Below, we'll look at these three companies to see what it'll take for them to produce the big returns that investors want right now.\nUnitedHealth: 34% upside\nUnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH) has already put in a reasonable performance in the Dow so far this year. The health insurance giant's stock is up about 11% year to date, outpacing the broader average very slightly.\nYet investors see a lot more upside for the healthcare giant. The top price target among Wall Street analysts for UnitedHealth is $522 per share, which implies roughly a 34% gain from current levels.\nUnitedHealth has done an excellent job of navigating the ever-changing landscape of the healthcare and health insurance industries. As the largest health insurance company in the world, UnitedHealth offers coverage not just for private businesses but also for those eligible for government programs like Medicare and Medicaid.\nIndeed, UnitedHealth's handling of plans under the Affordable Care Act has been masterful, with the company having participated in the program better known as Obamacare while not overcommitting to it. With the Supreme Court having recently upheld the validity of the Affordable Care Act, UnitedHealth finds itself in a strong position to keep benefiting from its mix of business.\n\nImage source: Getty Images.\nYet many overlook the value of UnitedHealth's Optum health services unit. By aiming to help providers encourage health and wellness, Optum generates higher-margin revenue while often producing better outcomes for patients and members. With both growth drivers pushing the company forward, UnitedHealth looks well poised to keep climbing.\nGoldman Sachs: 36% upside\nWall Street has enjoyed the bull market in stocks, and that's been a blessing for investment bank Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS). The perennial financial giant has seen its stock rise 34% so far in 2021 after less impressive performance during 2020.\nOn one hand, Goldman has reflected the broader performance of financial stocks across the market. Interest rates have generally been on the rise, and that's bolstered the prospects for more net-interest income from retail banking operations. Goldman lags behind its big-bank peers on the consumer banking front, but its relatively new Marcus unit has done a good job of attracting capital thus far.\nOn the other hand, Goldman continues to rely on its investment banking operations, and strong activity levels among initial public offerings and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) have fed the company's coffers nicely. Financing remains relatively easy to get, and that could spur more M&A activity that in turn could keep growing revenue for Goldman's investment banking division. Add to that possible tailwinds from macroeconomic factors, and it is in a solid position to climb as high as the $484 per share that represents the top price target among those following the financial stock.\nApple: 42% upside\nLastly, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) rounds out this list. Recently fetching $130 per share, some see the iPhone maker's stock climbing to $185. That'd be a 42% jump to help Apple recover from its 2% loss so far in 2021.\nApple's gains have continued to impress. Revenue jumped 54% in its most recent quarter, with sales of the iPhone 12 and various other products and accessories continuing to drive sales for the company. Returning capital to shareholders via dividends and stock buybacks has had a substantial impact on financial performance, especially with the number of outstanding shares having plunged by roughly 35% in just the past decade.\nMany fear that Apple hasn't generated the innovative product lines that drove its success in the mid-2000s. However, at least for now, consumers seem content with iterations on existing product lines, and as long as that remains a successful strategy, further gains for the stock seem realistic.\nFurther to run?\nEven with solid gains for the Dow in 2021, the long-term trajectory for stocks remains upward. That's a big part of why Apple, Goldman Sachs, and UnitedHealth Group look as promising as they do. Smart investors should at least keep an eye on these three stocks to see if they can live up to their full potential.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167583511,"gmtCreate":1624277299633,"gmtModify":1634008550816,"author":{"id":"3581839854871924","authorId":"3581839854871924","name":"Dabi2","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581839854871924","authorIdStr":"3581839854871924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat ah","listText":"Huat ah","text":"Huat ah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167583511","repostId":"1136676913","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167580401,"gmtCreate":1624277203503,"gmtModify":1634008552618,"author":{"id":"3581839854871924","authorId":"3581839854871924","name":"Dabi2","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581839854871924","authorIdStr":"3581839854871924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice!","listText":"Nice!","text":"Nice!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167580401","repostId":"1154249454","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":58,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164129697,"gmtCreate":1624182565019,"gmtModify":1634009711833,"author":{"id":"3581839854871924","authorId":"3581839854871924","name":"Dabi2","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581839854871924","authorIdStr":"3581839854871924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and share&nbsp;","listText":"Like and share&nbsp;","text":"Like and share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164129697","repostId":"1113942445","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164120715,"gmtCreate":1624182532037,"gmtModify":1634009712430,"author":{"id":"3581839854871924","authorId":"3581839854871924","name":"Dabi2","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581839854871924","authorIdStr":"3581839854871924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good!","listText":"Good!","text":"Good!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164120715","repostId":"1126454279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164120695,"gmtCreate":1624182510817,"gmtModify":1634009712805,"author":{"id":"3581839854871924","authorId":"3581839854871924","name":"Dabi2","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581839854871924","authorIdStr":"3581839854871924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice read!","listText":"Nice read!","text":"Nice read!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164120695","repostId":"1133385197","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164120016,"gmtCreate":1624182458135,"gmtModify":1634009713401,"author":{"id":"3581839854871924","authorId":"3581839854871924","name":"Dabi2","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581839854871924","authorIdStr":"3581839854871924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice!","listText":"Nice!","text":"Nice!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164120016","repostId":"1199331995","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199331995","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624065374,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199331995?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-19 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. IPO Week Ahead: Billion-Dollar Deals Come To Market In A 12 IPO Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199331995","media":"Renaissance","summary":"12 IPOs are scheduled to raise $5.6 billion in the week ahead led by two billion-dollar deals.Chinese freight platform Full Truck Alliance plans to raise $1.5 billion at a $19.7 billion market cap. The company’s platform connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types. Full Truck states that it is the world's largest digital freight platform by gross transaction value , facilitating 22+ million fulfilled orders with GTV of nearly $8 billio","content":"<p>12 IPOs are scheduled to raise $5.6 billion in the week ahead led by two billion-dollar deals.</p>\n<p>Chinese freight platform&nbsp;<b>Full Truck Alliance</b>(YMM) plans to raise $1.5 billion at a $19.7 billion market cap. The company’s platform connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types. Full Truck states that it is the world's largest digital freight platform by gross transaction value (GTV), facilitating 22+ million fulfilled orders with GTV of nearly $8 billion in the 1Q21.</p>\n<p>Healthcare manager&nbsp;<b>Bright Health Group</b>(BHG) plans to raise $1.3 billion at a $15.4 billion market cap. Bright Health seeks to employ a more consumer-centric approach to healthcare to improve consumer experiences. Through a multi-pronged organic and inorganic growth strategy, the company’s core business has grown to serve roughly 623,000 patients in 14 states since its founding.</p>\n<p>Data infrastructure provider&nbsp;<b>Confluent</b>(CFLT) plans to raise $713 million at a $10.0 billion market cap. Confluent data infrastructure offering is designed to connect all the applications, systems, and data layers of a company around a real-time central nervous system. The company had more than 2,500 customers as of March 2021, with a dollar-based net retention rate of 117%.</p>\n<p>Car wash brand&nbsp;<b>Mister Car Wash</b>(MCW) plans to raise $600 million at a $5.3 billion market cap. Profitable with solid cash flow, Mister Car Wash is the largest national car wash brand in the US, with 344 locations in 21 states. The company offers a monthly subscription program called Unlimited Wash Club which had 1.4 million members as of 3/31/21, representing nearly two-thirds of total wash sales.</p>\n<p>Digital physicians network&nbsp;<b>Doximity</b>(DOCS) plans to raise $501 million at a $4.5 billion market cap. Doximity claims that it is the leading digital platform for US medical professionals, allowing collaboration with colleagues and secure coordination of patient care, among other features. Fast growing and profitable, the company had over 1.8 million members as of 3/31/21, representing more than 80% of physicians across the country.</p>\n<p>Customer experience software provider&nbsp;<b>Sprinklr</b>(CXM) plans to raise $361 million at a $5.5 billion market cap. Sprinklr provides a software platform that helps enterprises create a persistent, unified view of each customer at scale. The company has attracted more than 1,000 customers, including over 50% of the Fortune 100. Sprinklr has improved its gross margins, though cash flow swung negative in 1Q FY22.</p>\n<p>HR platform provider&nbsp;<b>First Advantage</b>(FA) plans to raise $298 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. First Advantage provides technology solutions for screening, verifications, safety, and compliance related to human capital. Profitable with positive cash flow, the company derives most of its revenues from pre-onboarding screening, performing over 75 million screens on behalf of more than 30,000 customers in 2020.</p>\n<p>Chinese social networking platform&nbsp;<b>Soulgate</b>(SSR) plans to raise $185 million at a $1.8 billion market cap. The company’s app Soul is a virtual social network created to address the drawbacks of current social media platforms. In March 2021, the company averaged 9.1 million DAUs, a 94% increase over the prior year period.</p>\n<p>Digital financial services provider&nbsp;<b>AMTD Digital</b>(HKD) plans to raise $120 million at a $1.4 billion market cap. AMTD Digital states that it is the \"fusion reactor\" at the core of the AMTD SpiderNet ecosystem, operating a comprehensive digital solutions platform in Asia. Profitable with explosive growth, the company primarily generates revenue from fees and commissions in two lines of business.</p>\n<p>Organ bioengineering company&nbsp;<b>Miromatrix Medical</b>(MIRO) plans to raise $32 million at a $162 million market cap. Miromatrix is developing a novel technology for bioengineering fully transplantable human organs, initially focused on livers and kidneys. The company has demonstrated functional vasculature and important organ function in preclinical studies, and hopes to initiate a Phase 1 trial in late 2022 with its External Liver Assist Product.</p>\n<p>Kidney disease biotech&nbsp;<b>Unicycive Therapeutics</b>(UNCY) plans to raise $25 million at a $116 million market cap. The company’s candidates include Renazorb, which was in-licensed from Spectrum Pharmaceuticals, and UNI 494, which was in-licensed from Sphaera Pharmaceuticals. Unicycive began conducting preclinical trials on UNI 494 in 2020.</p>\n<p>Antibiotic biotech&nbsp;<b>Acurx Pharmaceuticals</b>(ACXP) plans to raise $15 million at a $62 million market cap. The company is developing a new class of antibiotics for infections caused by bacteria listed as priority pathogens by the WHO, CDC, and USDA. Its lead candidate recently completed a Phase 2a trial in patients with C. difficile infections, and is expected to begin a Phase 2b trial this year.</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <th>U.S. IPO Calendar</th>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <th>Issuer Business</th>\n   <th>Deal Size Market Cap</th>\n   <th>Price Range Shares Filed</th>\n   <th>Top Bookrunners</th>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Full Truck Alliance (YMM)</p><p>Guiyang, China</p></td>\n   <td>$1,485M$19,723M</td>\n   <td>$17 - $1982,500,000</td>\n   <td>Morgan StanleyCICC</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Digital freight platform that connects shippers and truckers in China.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>First Advantage (FA)</p><p>Atlanta, GA</p></td>\n   <td>$298M$2,097M</td>\n   <td>$13 - $1521,250,000</td>\n   <td>BarclaysBofA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Provides background checks and other services to corporate customers.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Sprinklr (CXM)</p><p>New York, NY</p></td>\n   <td>$361M$5,541M</td>\n   <td>$18 - $2019,000,000</td>\n   <td>Morgan StanleyJP Morgan</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Provides customer experience management software for enterprises.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Bright Health Group (BHG)</p><p>Minneapolis, MN</p></td>\n   <td>$1,290M$15,385M</td>\n   <td>$20 - $2360,000,000</td>\n   <td>JP MorganGoldman</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Provides health insurance and other healthcare services.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Confluent (CFLT)</p><p>Mountain View, CA</p></td>\n   <td>$713M$10,033M</td>\n   <td>$29 - $3323,000,000</td>\n   <td>Morgan StanleyJP Morgan</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Provides an enterprise platform that collects and processes real-time data streams.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Doximity (DOCS)</p><p>San Francisco, CA</p></td>\n   <td>$501M$4,549M</td>\n   <td>$20 - $2323,300,000</td>\n   <td>Morgan StanleyGoldman</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Professional network for physicians with telehealth and scheduling tools.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Soulgate (SSR)</p><p>Shanghai, China</p></td>\n   <td>$185M$1,824M</td>\n   <td>$13 - $1513,200,000</td>\n   <td>Morgan StanleyJefferies</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Provides the gamified social networking app Soul in China.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Acurx Pharmaceuticals (ACXP)</p><p>Staten Island, NY</p></td>\n   <td>$15M$62M</td>\n   <td>$5 - $72,500,000</td>\n   <td>Alexander CapitalNetwork 1</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Phase 2 biotech developing antibiotics for antibiotic-resistant pathogens.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Mister Car Wash (MCW)</p><p>Tucson, AZ</p></td>\n   <td>$600M$5,256M</td>\n   <td>$15 - $1737,500,000</td>\n   <td>BofAMorgan Stanley</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Leading national car wash brand with 344 locations across the US.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>AMTD Digital (HKD)</p><p>Hong Kong, China</p></td>\n   <td>$120M$1,388M</td>\n   <td>$6.80 - $8.2016,000,000</td>\n   <td>AMTD GlobalLoop Capital</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Digital financial services provider being spun out of AMTD.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Miromatrix Medical (MIRO)</p><p>Eden Prairie, MN</p></td>\n   <td>$32M$162M</td>\n   <td>$7 - $94,000,000</td>\n   <td>Craig-Hallum</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Developing novel bioengineering technology for organ transplants.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY)</p><p>Los Altos, CA</p></td>\n   <td>$25M$116M</td>\n   <td>$8.50 - $10.502,635,000</td>\n   <td>Roth Cap.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Early-stage biotech developing in-licensed therapies for kidney disease.</td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Street research is expected for seven companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to two companies.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. IPO Week Ahead: Billion-Dollar Deals Come To Market In A 12 IPO Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. IPO Week Ahead: Billion-Dollar Deals Come To Market In A 12 IPO Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-19 09:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435613-us-ipo-week-ahead-billion-dollar-deals-come-to-market-in-a-12-ipo-week><strong>Renaissance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>12 IPOs are scheduled to raise $5.6 billion in the week ahead led by two billion-dollar deals.\nChinese freight platform Full Truck Alliance(YMM) plans to raise $1.5 billion at a $19.7 billion market ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435613-us-ipo-week-ahead-billion-dollar-deals-come-to-market-in-a-12-ipo-week\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"YMM":"满帮","CXM":"Sprinklr, Inc.","CFLT":"Confluent, Inc.","DOCS":"Doximity, Inc.","FA":"First Advantage Corp.","MCW":"Mister Car Wash, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435613-us-ipo-week-ahead-billion-dollar-deals-come-to-market-in-a-12-ipo-week","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1199331995","content_text":"12 IPOs are scheduled to raise $5.6 billion in the week ahead led by two billion-dollar deals.\nChinese freight platform Full Truck Alliance(YMM) plans to raise $1.5 billion at a $19.7 billion market cap. The company’s platform connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types. Full Truck states that it is the world's largest digital freight platform by gross transaction value (GTV), facilitating 22+ million fulfilled orders with GTV of nearly $8 billion in the 1Q21.\nHealthcare manager Bright Health Group(BHG) plans to raise $1.3 billion at a $15.4 billion market cap. Bright Health seeks to employ a more consumer-centric approach to healthcare to improve consumer experiences. Through a multi-pronged organic and inorganic growth strategy, the company’s core business has grown to serve roughly 623,000 patients in 14 states since its founding.\nData infrastructure provider Confluent(CFLT) plans to raise $713 million at a $10.0 billion market cap. Confluent data infrastructure offering is designed to connect all the applications, systems, and data layers of a company around a real-time central nervous system. The company had more than 2,500 customers as of March 2021, with a dollar-based net retention rate of 117%.\nCar wash brand Mister Car Wash(MCW) plans to raise $600 million at a $5.3 billion market cap. Profitable with solid cash flow, Mister Car Wash is the largest national car wash brand in the US, with 344 locations in 21 states. The company offers a monthly subscription program called Unlimited Wash Club which had 1.4 million members as of 3/31/21, representing nearly two-thirds of total wash sales.\nDigital physicians network Doximity(DOCS) plans to raise $501 million at a $4.5 billion market cap. Doximity claims that it is the leading digital platform for US medical professionals, allowing collaboration with colleagues and secure coordination of patient care, among other features. Fast growing and profitable, the company had over 1.8 million members as of 3/31/21, representing more than 80% of physicians across the country.\nCustomer experience software provider Sprinklr(CXM) plans to raise $361 million at a $5.5 billion market cap. Sprinklr provides a software platform that helps enterprises create a persistent, unified view of each customer at scale. The company has attracted more than 1,000 customers, including over 50% of the Fortune 100. Sprinklr has improved its gross margins, though cash flow swung negative in 1Q FY22.\nHR platform provider First Advantage(FA) plans to raise $298 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. First Advantage provides technology solutions for screening, verifications, safety, and compliance related to human capital. Profitable with positive cash flow, the company derives most of its revenues from pre-onboarding screening, performing over 75 million screens on behalf of more than 30,000 customers in 2020.\nChinese social networking platform Soulgate(SSR) plans to raise $185 million at a $1.8 billion market cap. The company’s app Soul is a virtual social network created to address the drawbacks of current social media platforms. In March 2021, the company averaged 9.1 million DAUs, a 94% increase over the prior year period.\nDigital financial services provider AMTD Digital(HKD) plans to raise $120 million at a $1.4 billion market cap. AMTD Digital states that it is the \"fusion reactor\" at the core of the AMTD SpiderNet ecosystem, operating a comprehensive digital solutions platform in Asia. Profitable with explosive growth, the company primarily generates revenue from fees and commissions in two lines of business.\nOrgan bioengineering company Miromatrix Medical(MIRO) plans to raise $32 million at a $162 million market cap. Miromatrix is developing a novel technology for bioengineering fully transplantable human organs, initially focused on livers and kidneys. The company has demonstrated functional vasculature and important organ function in preclinical studies, and hopes to initiate a Phase 1 trial in late 2022 with its External Liver Assist Product.\nKidney disease biotech Unicycive Therapeutics(UNCY) plans to raise $25 million at a $116 million market cap. The company’s candidates include Renazorb, which was in-licensed from Spectrum Pharmaceuticals, and UNI 494, which was in-licensed from Sphaera Pharmaceuticals. Unicycive began conducting preclinical trials on UNI 494 in 2020.\nAntibiotic biotech Acurx Pharmaceuticals(ACXP) plans to raise $15 million at a $62 million market cap. The company is developing a new class of antibiotics for infections caused by bacteria listed as priority pathogens by the WHO, CDC, and USDA. Its lead candidate recently completed a Phase 2a trial in patients with C. difficile infections, and is expected to begin a Phase 2b trial this year.\n\n\n\nU.S. IPO Calendar\n\n\nIssuer Business\nDeal Size Market Cap\nPrice Range Shares Filed\nTop Bookrunners\n\n\nFull Truck Alliance (YMM)Guiyang, China\n$1,485M$19,723M\n$17 - $1982,500,000\nMorgan StanleyCICC\n\n\nDigital freight platform that connects shippers and truckers in China.\n\n\nFirst Advantage (FA)Atlanta, GA\n$298M$2,097M\n$13 - $1521,250,000\nBarclaysBofA\n\n\nProvides background checks and other services to corporate customers.\n\n\nSprinklr (CXM)New York, NY\n$361M$5,541M\n$18 - $2019,000,000\nMorgan StanleyJP Morgan\n\n\nProvides customer experience management software for enterprises.\n\n\nBright Health Group (BHG)Minneapolis, MN\n$1,290M$15,385M\n$20 - $2360,000,000\nJP MorganGoldman\n\n\nProvides health insurance and other healthcare services.\n\n\nConfluent (CFLT)Mountain View, CA\n$713M$10,033M\n$29 - $3323,000,000\nMorgan StanleyJP Morgan\n\n\nProvides an enterprise platform that collects and processes real-time data streams.\n\n\nDoximity (DOCS)San Francisco, CA\n$501M$4,549M\n$20 - $2323,300,000\nMorgan StanleyGoldman\n\n\nProfessional network for physicians with telehealth and scheduling tools.\n\n\nSoulgate (SSR)Shanghai, China\n$185M$1,824M\n$13 - $1513,200,000\nMorgan StanleyJefferies\n\n\nProvides the gamified social networking app Soul in China.\n\n\nAcurx Pharmaceuticals (ACXP)Staten Island, NY\n$15M$62M\n$5 - $72,500,000\nAlexander CapitalNetwork 1\n\n\nPhase 2 biotech developing antibiotics for antibiotic-resistant pathogens.\n\n\nMister Car Wash (MCW)Tucson, AZ\n$600M$5,256M\n$15 - $1737,500,000\nBofAMorgan Stanley\n\n\nLeading national car wash brand with 344 locations across the US.\n\n\nAMTD Digital (HKD)Hong Kong, China\n$120M$1,388M\n$6.80 - $8.2016,000,000\nAMTD GlobalLoop Capital\n\n\nDigital financial services provider being spun out of AMTD.\n\n\nMiromatrix Medical (MIRO)Eden Prairie, MN\n$32M$162M\n$7 - $94,000,000\nCraig-Hallum\n\n\nDeveloping novel bioengineering technology for organ transplants.\n\n\nUnicycive Therapeutics (UNCY)Los Altos, CA\n$25M$116M\n$8.50 - $10.502,635,000\nRoth Cap.\n\n\nEarly-stage biotech developing in-licensed therapies for kidney disease.\n\n\n\nStreet research is expected for seven companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to two companies.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":100,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":164120016,"gmtCreate":1624182458135,"gmtModify":1634009713401,"author":{"id":"3581839854871924","authorId":"3581839854871924","name":"Dabi2","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581839854871924","authorIdStr":"3581839854871924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice!","listText":"Nice!","text":"Nice!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164120016","repostId":"1199331995","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199331995","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624065374,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199331995?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-19 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. IPO Week Ahead: Billion-Dollar Deals Come To Market In A 12 IPO Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199331995","media":"Renaissance","summary":"12 IPOs are scheduled to raise $5.6 billion in the week ahead led by two billion-dollar deals.Chinese freight platform Full Truck Alliance plans to raise $1.5 billion at a $19.7 billion market cap. The company’s platform connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types. Full Truck states that it is the world's largest digital freight platform by gross transaction value , facilitating 22+ million fulfilled orders with GTV of nearly $8 billio","content":"<p>12 IPOs are scheduled to raise $5.6 billion in the week ahead led by two billion-dollar deals.</p>\n<p>Chinese freight platform&nbsp;<b>Full Truck Alliance</b>(YMM) plans to raise $1.5 billion at a $19.7 billion market cap. The company’s platform connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types. Full Truck states that it is the world's largest digital freight platform by gross transaction value (GTV), facilitating 22+ million fulfilled orders with GTV of nearly $8 billion in the 1Q21.</p>\n<p>Healthcare manager&nbsp;<b>Bright Health Group</b>(BHG) plans to raise $1.3 billion at a $15.4 billion market cap. Bright Health seeks to employ a more consumer-centric approach to healthcare to improve consumer experiences. Through a multi-pronged organic and inorganic growth strategy, the company’s core business has grown to serve roughly 623,000 patients in 14 states since its founding.</p>\n<p>Data infrastructure provider&nbsp;<b>Confluent</b>(CFLT) plans to raise $713 million at a $10.0 billion market cap. Confluent data infrastructure offering is designed to connect all the applications, systems, and data layers of a company around a real-time central nervous system. The company had more than 2,500 customers as of March 2021, with a dollar-based net retention rate of 117%.</p>\n<p>Car wash brand&nbsp;<b>Mister Car Wash</b>(MCW) plans to raise $600 million at a $5.3 billion market cap. Profitable with solid cash flow, Mister Car Wash is the largest national car wash brand in the US, with 344 locations in 21 states. The company offers a monthly subscription program called Unlimited Wash Club which had 1.4 million members as of 3/31/21, representing nearly two-thirds of total wash sales.</p>\n<p>Digital physicians network&nbsp;<b>Doximity</b>(DOCS) plans to raise $501 million at a $4.5 billion market cap. Doximity claims that it is the leading digital platform for US medical professionals, allowing collaboration with colleagues and secure coordination of patient care, among other features. Fast growing and profitable, the company had over 1.8 million members as of 3/31/21, representing more than 80% of physicians across the country.</p>\n<p>Customer experience software provider&nbsp;<b>Sprinklr</b>(CXM) plans to raise $361 million at a $5.5 billion market cap. Sprinklr provides a software platform that helps enterprises create a persistent, unified view of each customer at scale. The company has attracted more than 1,000 customers, including over 50% of the Fortune 100. Sprinklr has improved its gross margins, though cash flow swung negative in 1Q FY22.</p>\n<p>HR platform provider&nbsp;<b>First Advantage</b>(FA) plans to raise $298 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. First Advantage provides technology solutions for screening, verifications, safety, and compliance related to human capital. Profitable with positive cash flow, the company derives most of its revenues from pre-onboarding screening, performing over 75 million screens on behalf of more than 30,000 customers in 2020.</p>\n<p>Chinese social networking platform&nbsp;<b>Soulgate</b>(SSR) plans to raise $185 million at a $1.8 billion market cap. The company’s app Soul is a virtual social network created to address the drawbacks of current social media platforms. In March 2021, the company averaged 9.1 million DAUs, a 94% increase over the prior year period.</p>\n<p>Digital financial services provider&nbsp;<b>AMTD Digital</b>(HKD) plans to raise $120 million at a $1.4 billion market cap. AMTD Digital states that it is the \"fusion reactor\" at the core of the AMTD SpiderNet ecosystem, operating a comprehensive digital solutions platform in Asia. Profitable with explosive growth, the company primarily generates revenue from fees and commissions in two lines of business.</p>\n<p>Organ bioengineering company&nbsp;<b>Miromatrix Medical</b>(MIRO) plans to raise $32 million at a $162 million market cap. Miromatrix is developing a novel technology for bioengineering fully transplantable human organs, initially focused on livers and kidneys. The company has demonstrated functional vasculature and important organ function in preclinical studies, and hopes to initiate a Phase 1 trial in late 2022 with its External Liver Assist Product.</p>\n<p>Kidney disease biotech&nbsp;<b>Unicycive Therapeutics</b>(UNCY) plans to raise $25 million at a $116 million market cap. The company’s candidates include Renazorb, which was in-licensed from Spectrum Pharmaceuticals, and UNI 494, which was in-licensed from Sphaera Pharmaceuticals. Unicycive began conducting preclinical trials on UNI 494 in 2020.</p>\n<p>Antibiotic biotech&nbsp;<b>Acurx Pharmaceuticals</b>(ACXP) plans to raise $15 million at a $62 million market cap. The company is developing a new class of antibiotics for infections caused by bacteria listed as priority pathogens by the WHO, CDC, and USDA. Its lead candidate recently completed a Phase 2a trial in patients with C. difficile infections, and is expected to begin a Phase 2b trial this year.</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <th>U.S. IPO Calendar</th>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <th>Issuer Business</th>\n   <th>Deal Size Market Cap</th>\n   <th>Price Range Shares Filed</th>\n   <th>Top Bookrunners</th>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Full Truck Alliance (YMM)</p><p>Guiyang, China</p></td>\n   <td>$1,485M$19,723M</td>\n   <td>$17 - $1982,500,000</td>\n   <td>Morgan StanleyCICC</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Digital freight platform that connects shippers and truckers in China.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>First Advantage (FA)</p><p>Atlanta, GA</p></td>\n   <td>$298M$2,097M</td>\n   <td>$13 - $1521,250,000</td>\n   <td>BarclaysBofA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Provides background checks and other services to corporate customers.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Sprinklr (CXM)</p><p>New York, NY</p></td>\n   <td>$361M$5,541M</td>\n   <td>$18 - $2019,000,000</td>\n   <td>Morgan StanleyJP Morgan</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Provides customer experience management software for enterprises.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Bright Health Group (BHG)</p><p>Minneapolis, MN</p></td>\n   <td>$1,290M$15,385M</td>\n   <td>$20 - $2360,000,000</td>\n   <td>JP MorganGoldman</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Provides health insurance and other healthcare services.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Confluent (CFLT)</p><p>Mountain View, CA</p></td>\n   <td>$713M$10,033M</td>\n   <td>$29 - $3323,000,000</td>\n   <td>Morgan StanleyJP Morgan</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Provides an enterprise platform that collects and processes real-time data streams.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Doximity (DOCS)</p><p>San Francisco, CA</p></td>\n   <td>$501M$4,549M</td>\n   <td>$20 - $2323,300,000</td>\n   <td>Morgan StanleyGoldman</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Professional network for physicians with telehealth and scheduling tools.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Soulgate (SSR)</p><p>Shanghai, China</p></td>\n   <td>$185M$1,824M</td>\n   <td>$13 - $1513,200,000</td>\n   <td>Morgan StanleyJefferies</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Provides the gamified social networking app Soul in China.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Acurx Pharmaceuticals (ACXP)</p><p>Staten Island, NY</p></td>\n   <td>$15M$62M</td>\n   <td>$5 - $72,500,000</td>\n   <td>Alexander CapitalNetwork 1</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Phase 2 biotech developing antibiotics for antibiotic-resistant pathogens.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Mister Car Wash (MCW)</p><p>Tucson, AZ</p></td>\n   <td>$600M$5,256M</td>\n   <td>$15 - $1737,500,000</td>\n   <td>BofAMorgan Stanley</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Leading national car wash brand with 344 locations across the US.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>AMTD Digital (HKD)</p><p>Hong Kong, China</p></td>\n   <td>$120M$1,388M</td>\n   <td>$6.80 - $8.2016,000,000</td>\n   <td>AMTD GlobalLoop Capital</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Digital financial services provider being spun out of AMTD.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Miromatrix Medical (MIRO)</p><p>Eden Prairie, MN</p></td>\n   <td>$32M$162M</td>\n   <td>$7 - $94,000,000</td>\n   <td>Craig-Hallum</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Developing novel bioengineering technology for organ transplants.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY)</p><p>Los Altos, CA</p></td>\n   <td>$25M$116M</td>\n   <td>$8.50 - $10.502,635,000</td>\n   <td>Roth Cap.</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Early-stage biotech developing in-licensed therapies for kidney disease.</td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Street research is expected for seven companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to two companies.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. IPO Week Ahead: Billion-Dollar Deals Come To Market In A 12 IPO Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. IPO Week Ahead: Billion-Dollar Deals Come To Market In A 12 IPO Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-19 09:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435613-us-ipo-week-ahead-billion-dollar-deals-come-to-market-in-a-12-ipo-week><strong>Renaissance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>12 IPOs are scheduled to raise $5.6 billion in the week ahead led by two billion-dollar deals.\nChinese freight platform Full Truck Alliance(YMM) plans to raise $1.5 billion at a $19.7 billion market ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435613-us-ipo-week-ahead-billion-dollar-deals-come-to-market-in-a-12-ipo-week\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"YMM":"满帮","CXM":"Sprinklr, Inc.","CFLT":"Confluent, Inc.","DOCS":"Doximity, Inc.","FA":"First Advantage Corp.","MCW":"Mister Car Wash, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435613-us-ipo-week-ahead-billion-dollar-deals-come-to-market-in-a-12-ipo-week","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1199331995","content_text":"12 IPOs are scheduled to raise $5.6 billion in the week ahead led by two billion-dollar deals.\nChinese freight platform Full Truck Alliance(YMM) plans to raise $1.5 billion at a $19.7 billion market cap. The company’s platform connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types. Full Truck states that it is the world's largest digital freight platform by gross transaction value (GTV), facilitating 22+ million fulfilled orders with GTV of nearly $8 billion in the 1Q21.\nHealthcare manager Bright Health Group(BHG) plans to raise $1.3 billion at a $15.4 billion market cap. Bright Health seeks to employ a more consumer-centric approach to healthcare to improve consumer experiences. Through a multi-pronged organic and inorganic growth strategy, the company’s core business has grown to serve roughly 623,000 patients in 14 states since its founding.\nData infrastructure provider Confluent(CFLT) plans to raise $713 million at a $10.0 billion market cap. Confluent data infrastructure offering is designed to connect all the applications, systems, and data layers of a company around a real-time central nervous system. The company had more than 2,500 customers as of March 2021, with a dollar-based net retention rate of 117%.\nCar wash brand Mister Car Wash(MCW) plans to raise $600 million at a $5.3 billion market cap. Profitable with solid cash flow, Mister Car Wash is the largest national car wash brand in the US, with 344 locations in 21 states. The company offers a monthly subscription program called Unlimited Wash Club which had 1.4 million members as of 3/31/21, representing nearly two-thirds of total wash sales.\nDigital physicians network Doximity(DOCS) plans to raise $501 million at a $4.5 billion market cap. Doximity claims that it is the leading digital platform for US medical professionals, allowing collaboration with colleagues and secure coordination of patient care, among other features. Fast growing and profitable, the company had over 1.8 million members as of 3/31/21, representing more than 80% of physicians across the country.\nCustomer experience software provider Sprinklr(CXM) plans to raise $361 million at a $5.5 billion market cap. Sprinklr provides a software platform that helps enterprises create a persistent, unified view of each customer at scale. The company has attracted more than 1,000 customers, including over 50% of the Fortune 100. Sprinklr has improved its gross margins, though cash flow swung negative in 1Q FY22.\nHR platform provider First Advantage(FA) plans to raise $298 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. First Advantage provides technology solutions for screening, verifications, safety, and compliance related to human capital. Profitable with positive cash flow, the company derives most of its revenues from pre-onboarding screening, performing over 75 million screens on behalf of more than 30,000 customers in 2020.\nChinese social networking platform Soulgate(SSR) plans to raise $185 million at a $1.8 billion market cap. The company’s app Soul is a virtual social network created to address the drawbacks of current social media platforms. In March 2021, the company averaged 9.1 million DAUs, a 94% increase over the prior year period.\nDigital financial services provider AMTD Digital(HKD) plans to raise $120 million at a $1.4 billion market cap. AMTD Digital states that it is the \"fusion reactor\" at the core of the AMTD SpiderNet ecosystem, operating a comprehensive digital solutions platform in Asia. Profitable with explosive growth, the company primarily generates revenue from fees and commissions in two lines of business.\nOrgan bioengineering company Miromatrix Medical(MIRO) plans to raise $32 million at a $162 million market cap. Miromatrix is developing a novel technology for bioengineering fully transplantable human organs, initially focused on livers and kidneys. The company has demonstrated functional vasculature and important organ function in preclinical studies, and hopes to initiate a Phase 1 trial in late 2022 with its External Liver Assist Product.\nKidney disease biotech Unicycive Therapeutics(UNCY) plans to raise $25 million at a $116 million market cap. The company’s candidates include Renazorb, which was in-licensed from Spectrum Pharmaceuticals, and UNI 494, which was in-licensed from Sphaera Pharmaceuticals. Unicycive began conducting preclinical trials on UNI 494 in 2020.\nAntibiotic biotech Acurx Pharmaceuticals(ACXP) plans to raise $15 million at a $62 million market cap. The company is developing a new class of antibiotics for infections caused by bacteria listed as priority pathogens by the WHO, CDC, and USDA. Its lead candidate recently completed a Phase 2a trial in patients with C. difficile infections, and is expected to begin a Phase 2b trial this year.\n\n\n\nU.S. IPO Calendar\n\n\nIssuer Business\nDeal Size Market Cap\nPrice Range Shares Filed\nTop Bookrunners\n\n\nFull Truck Alliance (YMM)Guiyang, China\n$1,485M$19,723M\n$17 - $1982,500,000\nMorgan StanleyCICC\n\n\nDigital freight platform that connects shippers and truckers in China.\n\n\nFirst Advantage (FA)Atlanta, GA\n$298M$2,097M\n$13 - $1521,250,000\nBarclaysBofA\n\n\nProvides background checks and other services to corporate customers.\n\n\nSprinklr (CXM)New York, NY\n$361M$5,541M\n$18 - $2019,000,000\nMorgan StanleyJP Morgan\n\n\nProvides customer experience management software for enterprises.\n\n\nBright Health Group (BHG)Minneapolis, MN\n$1,290M$15,385M\n$20 - $2360,000,000\nJP MorganGoldman\n\n\nProvides health insurance and other healthcare services.\n\n\nConfluent (CFLT)Mountain View, CA\n$713M$10,033M\n$29 - $3323,000,000\nMorgan StanleyJP Morgan\n\n\nProvides an enterprise platform that collects and processes real-time data streams.\n\n\nDoximity (DOCS)San Francisco, CA\n$501M$4,549M\n$20 - $2323,300,000\nMorgan StanleyGoldman\n\n\nProfessional network for physicians with telehealth and scheduling tools.\n\n\nSoulgate (SSR)Shanghai, China\n$185M$1,824M\n$13 - $1513,200,000\nMorgan StanleyJefferies\n\n\nProvides the gamified social networking app Soul in China.\n\n\nAcurx Pharmaceuticals (ACXP)Staten Island, NY\n$15M$62M\n$5 - $72,500,000\nAlexander CapitalNetwork 1\n\n\nPhase 2 biotech developing antibiotics for antibiotic-resistant pathogens.\n\n\nMister Car Wash (MCW)Tucson, AZ\n$600M$5,256M\n$15 - $1737,500,000\nBofAMorgan Stanley\n\n\nLeading national car wash brand with 344 locations across the US.\n\n\nAMTD Digital (HKD)Hong Kong, China\n$120M$1,388M\n$6.80 - $8.2016,000,000\nAMTD GlobalLoop Capital\n\n\nDigital financial services provider being spun out of AMTD.\n\n\nMiromatrix Medical (MIRO)Eden Prairie, MN\n$32M$162M\n$7 - $94,000,000\nCraig-Hallum\n\n\nDeveloping novel bioengineering technology for organ transplants.\n\n\nUnicycive Therapeutics (UNCY)Los Altos, CA\n$25M$116M\n$8.50 - $10.502,635,000\nRoth Cap.\n\n\nEarly-stage biotech developing in-licensed therapies for kidney disease.\n\n\n\nStreet research is expected for seven companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to two companies.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":100,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121177842,"gmtCreate":1624457726186,"gmtModify":1634005850086,"author":{"id":"3581839854871924","authorId":"3581839854871924","name":"Dabi2","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581839854871924","authorIdStr":"3581839854871924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121177842","repostId":"1191722749","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191722749","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624455982,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191722749?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 21:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed In A Box, Part 1: They Cannot Raise Interest Rates","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191722749","media":"zerohedge","summary":"3 Key Takeaways\n\nThe US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt\nMuch of the debt is short-term, mak","content":"<p><b>3 Key Takeaways</b></p>\n<ol>\n <li>The US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt</li>\n <li>Much of the debt is short-term, making it extra sensitive to higher rates</li>\n <li>Higher Interest Rates would immediately start putting strain on the Federal Budget</li>\n</ol>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>The US has over $28 Trillion dollars in debt and it continues to grow at an alarming rate. Even before COVID-19, the problem was becoming unwieldy. Ironically, despite adding $4T+ in debt over the last year, the pandemic may have given the US Government short-term reprieve as it gave the Federal Reserve a green light to drop rates back to zero.</p>\n<p>First and foremost, this took pressure off the Treasury as it refinanced the ballooning short-term debt outstanding at lower rates. However, even more relief occurred as the Federal Reserve absorbed +90% of the long term debt issued since last March. This allowed more room in the private markets to purchase the issuance of new short-term Treasury Bills. Because the Fed pays interest revenue back to the Treasury, and since interest rates on Treasury Bills are sitting at 0%, this has effectively given the Treasury a&nbsp;<b>$4.5T loan at 0% interest</b>&nbsp;in 15 months!</p>\n<p>While this sounds like a great deal, it comes with major risks and has now put the Fed in a box. This will be explained in detail over two articles. Part 1 will explain why the Fed can no longer raise interest rates, and Part 2 will show how the Fed is unable to taper and may even need to increase Treasury purchases to maintain control over the long end of the yield curve.</p>\n<p><b>$28 Trillion and Growing</b></p>\n<p>The US Government cannot stop spending money. Spending is now far in excess of what is being collected in tax revenues. The US economy continues to experience nominal increases in growth, which has increased Federal Tax receipts, but Federal Spending is growing far faster. Figure 1 below, shows this clear trend.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5576e9901f1f8310629d45af16836a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p>\n<p><i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p>\n<p>Excess spending has to be paid for using debt. This massive excess in spending has led to proliferate borrowing by the Federal Government resulting in over $28T in total debt outstanding. See figure 2 below.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed345b06ec4a35726fe7d9847937cf34\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p>\n<p><i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p>\n<p>For anyone struggling to wrap their mind around the size of $1T, please see this great&nbsp;visual. Now, multiply that by 28!</p>\n<p>For most governments, this would be unsustainable as interest rates would rise. This puts pressure on a borrower to bring down spending. The US Government has benefited from three major advantages that are not available to most governments. First, it has the exorbitant privilege of issuing the global reserve currency (for now), which creates far more demand for dollars than would otherwise be the case. The&nbsp;petro-dollar&nbsp;should have its own dedicated article, so that will be skipped in this analysis.</p>\n<p>It is important to highlight two other key facts that have allowed spending and borrowing to continue unabated. It has been able to borrow from the Social Security Trust Fund, and the Federal Reserve has absorbed a large chunk of debt issuance in recent years. Not only does this equate to $11T in interest-free loans (as all interest payments return back to the Treasury), but it has prevented the private markets from absorbing all new debt issuance keeping interest rates lower. As Figure 3 below shows, since Jan 2010, the private markets have “only” had to absorb $9T of the $14.5T issued.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dee6e735c0a3c1421eb321c0eae4b54\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p>\n<p><i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov andhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/</i></p>\n<p>Since Jan 2020, the numbers are even more stark. The Treasury has issued $4.5T, of which the Fed has taken on $2.6T (<i>Note: The Fed balance sheet has expanded by greater than $4T, but not all of this was Treasury Debt</i>). Looking deeper into the numbers shows the Fed had an even bigger appetite for longer-dated maturities. With Short Term rates at 0%, the Treasury can sell Treasury Bills to the private sector and still have an interest-free loan. Thus, it has been critical for the Fed to absorb almost all (~90%) the long-term debt issued by the Treasury to keep interest payments low!</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89bf299c6c054e65d3317aa72d0f686a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p>\n<p><i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p>\n<p><b>The Treasury has so far avoided higher interest payments</b></p>\n<p>Zooming back out, the three charts below show why the maneuvers over the last year have been so important. Take one more look at the US Debt load, this time categorized by vehicle. Non-Marketable is debt the government owes itself, Notes represent 1-10 year maturity, Bills less than 1 year, and Bonds &gt;10 years. The two charts below show both the absolute growth in debt and how the makeup of the debt has changed. Since 2008, Notes have experienced the largest growth increasing from 25% of total outstanding to 42%. Non-Marketable went the other way, shrinking from 45% to 25% as the Social Security Trust Fund is no longer a source to borrow from.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a144f0f9250c364637205e8bd0178bc0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p>\n<p><i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c1851784731b81544c30c5338624a03\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p>\n<p><i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p>\n<p>It is important to notice the growth in Treasury Bills above. Bills are the highest risk to the Treasury because higher interest rates will affect Bills within months, so it is important to note that in 2015 during the last rate hike cycle they accounted for only $1.4T but now make up $4.3T. This means every .25% rate hike will almost immediately add $10B to Federal spending. The chart below clearly shows the impact of the last interest rate hike cycle. The Pink line shows how Bills followed the Fed hike cycle topping out near 2.25%.</p>\n<p>If the Fed attempted to raise rates in a similar fashion it would immediately add $100B to Federal Spending on ONLY interest due for Treasury Bills. In a scenario where the Fed shrunk its balance sheet back to $1T (no more interest free loans) AND raised interest rates back to 4%, the Treasury would incur an extra $160B in interest rates for Treasury Bills and a whopping $290B on Treasury Notes! This would not factor in any new debt added over that time, which now includes an extra $.5T a year just on interest payments!</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04501c54f465fba412ffbf77b81a559f\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p>\n<p><i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p>\n<p>The chart below shows a much clearer impact of how falling interest rates have kept debt payments relatively stable for nearly 20 years. The chart shows the average weighted interest rate and the annualized monthly interest payments. The orange line (average weighted interest rate) is moving in direct opposition to the growth in debt seen above. In the last rate tightening cycle, the chart shows just how quickly higher interest rates increased the debt burden ($150B). The Fed owns very few Treasury Bills ($320B), so those interest payments are NOT returning to the Treasury.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c859933a1e991d3e6ba191ccb6a7609e\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p>\n<p><i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p>\n<p>One final chart to consider. How do these interest payments compare to tax revenue collected by the IRS? In this context, it becomes very clear how much impact the 2015 rate cycle increases had on debt payments.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/585708ace254d0b79ecddcc77c9c8ca0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"512\"></p>\n<p><i>Source – Treasurydirect.gov</i></p>\n<p><b>Wrapping Up</b></p>\n<p>Nothing in this article should be surprising to anyone who even closely watches the US Debt situation or follows financial markets. The charts and graphs attempted to show the trends and put hard numbers behind what most people already know anecdotally. This article does not even touch on how devastating higher interest rates would be on the housing market, corporate debt market, and consumer debt market. Instead it only focuses on the Treasury, which just so happens to be run by the old chair of the Federal Reserve (Janet Yellen).</p>\n<p>None of this math is overly complex, and all the data is freely available on the Treasury and Fed website. This begs the question, does the Fed realize interest rates cannot go up or are they only looking in the rear-view mirror and assuming that an increase to 2.25% will be similar to 2015 which was “only” derailed by COVID-19? To reiterate, the drop in interest rates gave the Treasury&nbsp;<i>relief</i>&nbsp;from the higher interest payments. Next time they might not even get halfway to 2% with the added debt burden.<b>Unfortunately, for the Fed, their box is tighter than most realize.</b>If the Fed hasn’t figured it out by now,<b>even before they fail to raise interest rates, they will be unable taper Quantitative Easing (debt monetization) much less shrink their balance sheet, without serious consequences.</b>That data will be reviewed in Part 2. Stay tuned!</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed In A Box, Part 1: They Cannot Raise Interest Rates</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed In A Box, Part 1: They Cannot Raise Interest Rates\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 21:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-box-part-1-they-cannot-raise-interest-rates><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>3 Key Takeaways\n\nThe US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt\nMuch of the debt is short-term, making it extra sensitive to higher rates\nHigher Interest Rates would immediately start putting strain ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-box-part-1-they-cannot-raise-interest-rates\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-box-part-1-they-cannot-raise-interest-rates","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191722749","content_text":"3 Key Takeaways\n\nThe US Government has over $28 Trillion in Debt\nMuch of the debt is short-term, making it extra sensitive to higher rates\nHigher Interest Rates would immediately start putting strain on the Federal Budget\n\nIntroduction\nThe US has over $28 Trillion dollars in debt and it continues to grow at an alarming rate. Even before COVID-19, the problem was becoming unwieldy. Ironically, despite adding $4T+ in debt over the last year, the pandemic may have given the US Government short-term reprieve as it gave the Federal Reserve a green light to drop rates back to zero.\nFirst and foremost, this took pressure off the Treasury as it refinanced the ballooning short-term debt outstanding at lower rates. However, even more relief occurred as the Federal Reserve absorbed +90% of the long term debt issued since last March. This allowed more room in the private markets to purchase the issuance of new short-term Treasury Bills. Because the Fed pays interest revenue back to the Treasury, and since interest rates on Treasury Bills are sitting at 0%, this has effectively given the Treasury a $4.5T loan at 0% interest in 15 months!\nWhile this sounds like a great deal, it comes with major risks and has now put the Fed in a box. This will be explained in detail over two articles. Part 1 will explain why the Fed can no longer raise interest rates, and Part 2 will show how the Fed is unable to taper and may even need to increase Treasury purchases to maintain control over the long end of the yield curve.\n$28 Trillion and Growing\nThe US Government cannot stop spending money. Spending is now far in excess of what is being collected in tax revenues. The US economy continues to experience nominal increases in growth, which has increased Federal Tax receipts, but Federal Spending is growing far faster. Figure 1 below, shows this clear trend.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nExcess spending has to be paid for using debt. This massive excess in spending has led to proliferate borrowing by the Federal Government resulting in over $28T in total debt outstanding. See figure 2 below.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nFor anyone struggling to wrap their mind around the size of $1T, please see this great visual. Now, multiply that by 28!\nFor most governments, this would be unsustainable as interest rates would rise. This puts pressure on a borrower to bring down spending. The US Government has benefited from three major advantages that are not available to most governments. First, it has the exorbitant privilege of issuing the global reserve currency (for now), which creates far more demand for dollars than would otherwise be the case. The petro-dollar should have its own dedicated article, so that will be skipped in this analysis.\nIt is important to highlight two other key facts that have allowed spending and borrowing to continue unabated. It has been able to borrow from the Social Security Trust Fund, and the Federal Reserve has absorbed a large chunk of debt issuance in recent years. Not only does this equate to $11T in interest-free loans (as all interest payments return back to the Treasury), but it has prevented the private markets from absorbing all new debt issuance keeping interest rates lower. As Figure 3 below shows, since Jan 2010, the private markets have “only” had to absorb $9T of the $14.5T issued.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov andhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/\nSince Jan 2020, the numbers are even more stark. The Treasury has issued $4.5T, of which the Fed has taken on $2.6T (Note: The Fed balance sheet has expanded by greater than $4T, but not all of this was Treasury Debt). Looking deeper into the numbers shows the Fed had an even bigger appetite for longer-dated maturities. With Short Term rates at 0%, the Treasury can sell Treasury Bills to the private sector and still have an interest-free loan. Thus, it has been critical for the Fed to absorb almost all (~90%) the long-term debt issued by the Treasury to keep interest payments low!\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nThe Treasury has so far avoided higher interest payments\nZooming back out, the three charts below show why the maneuvers over the last year have been so important. Take one more look at the US Debt load, this time categorized by vehicle. Non-Marketable is debt the government owes itself, Notes represent 1-10 year maturity, Bills less than 1 year, and Bonds >10 years. The two charts below show both the absolute growth in debt and how the makeup of the debt has changed. Since 2008, Notes have experienced the largest growth increasing from 25% of total outstanding to 42%. Non-Marketable went the other way, shrinking from 45% to 25% as the Social Security Trust Fund is no longer a source to borrow from.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nIt is important to notice the growth in Treasury Bills above. Bills are the highest risk to the Treasury because higher interest rates will affect Bills within months, so it is important to note that in 2015 during the last rate hike cycle they accounted for only $1.4T but now make up $4.3T. This means every .25% rate hike will almost immediately add $10B to Federal spending. The chart below clearly shows the impact of the last interest rate hike cycle. The Pink line shows how Bills followed the Fed hike cycle topping out near 2.25%.\nIf the Fed attempted to raise rates in a similar fashion it would immediately add $100B to Federal Spending on ONLY interest due for Treasury Bills. In a scenario where the Fed shrunk its balance sheet back to $1T (no more interest free loans) AND raised interest rates back to 4%, the Treasury would incur an extra $160B in interest rates for Treasury Bills and a whopping $290B on Treasury Notes! This would not factor in any new debt added over that time, which now includes an extra $.5T a year just on interest payments!\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nThe chart below shows a much clearer impact of how falling interest rates have kept debt payments relatively stable for nearly 20 years. The chart shows the average weighted interest rate and the annualized monthly interest payments. The orange line (average weighted interest rate) is moving in direct opposition to the growth in debt seen above. In the last rate tightening cycle, the chart shows just how quickly higher interest rates increased the debt burden ($150B). The Fed owns very few Treasury Bills ($320B), so those interest payments are NOT returning to the Treasury.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nOne final chart to consider. How do these interest payments compare to tax revenue collected by the IRS? In this context, it becomes very clear how much impact the 2015 rate cycle increases had on debt payments.\n\nSource – Treasurydirect.gov\nWrapping Up\nNothing in this article should be surprising to anyone who even closely watches the US Debt situation or follows financial markets. The charts and graphs attempted to show the trends and put hard numbers behind what most people already know anecdotally. This article does not even touch on how devastating higher interest rates would be on the housing market, corporate debt market, and consumer debt market. Instead it only focuses on the Treasury, which just so happens to be run by the old chair of the Federal Reserve (Janet Yellen).\nNone of this math is overly complex, and all the data is freely available on the Treasury and Fed website. This begs the question, does the Fed realize interest rates cannot go up or are they only looking in the rear-view mirror and assuming that an increase to 2.25% will be similar to 2015 which was “only” derailed by COVID-19? To reiterate, the drop in interest rates gave the Treasury relief from the higher interest payments. Next time they might not even get halfway to 2% with the added debt burden.Unfortunately, for the Fed, their box is tighter than most realize.If the Fed hasn’t figured it out by now,even before they fail to raise interest rates, they will be unable taper Quantitative Easing (debt monetization) much less shrink their balance sheet, without serious consequences.That data will be reviewed in Part 2. Stay tuned!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":311,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167583511,"gmtCreate":1624277299633,"gmtModify":1634008550816,"author":{"id":"3581839854871924","authorId":"3581839854871924","name":"Dabi2","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581839854871924","authorIdStr":"3581839854871924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat ah","listText":"Huat ah","text":"Huat ah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167583511","repostId":"1136676913","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164120715,"gmtCreate":1624182532037,"gmtModify":1634009712430,"author":{"id":"3581839854871924","authorId":"3581839854871924","name":"Dabi2","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581839854871924","authorIdStr":"3581839854871924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good!","listText":"Good!","text":"Good!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164120715","repostId":"1126454279","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126454279","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624151746,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126454279?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-20 09:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Stock Market Crash Is Coming: 5 High-Conviction Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist When It Happens","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126454279","media":"fool","summary":"It might be the last thing you want to hear, but it's the truth:A stock market crash is inevitable.\n","content":"<p>It might be the last thing you want to hear, but it's the truth:A stock market crash is inevitable.</p>\n<p>Since the March 23, 2020 bottom, investors have enjoyed a historically strong bounce-back rally -- the widely followed<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)has gained an impressive 90%. But both history and valuation metrics unequivocally suggest that a big drop is upcoming for the stock market.</p>\n<p><b>History is pretty clear that trouble lies ahead</b></p>\n<p>For example, there have beenone or two double-digit percentage declineswithin the three years following a bottom in each of the previous eight bear markets prior to the coronavirus crash (i.e., dating back to 1960). Although bull markets tend to last years, rebounds from a bear market are never this smooth. We're nearly 15 months past the March 2020 bear-market bottom in the S&amp;P 500 and have yet to see anything close to a double-digit correction.</p>\n<p>To add to this point, data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research shows that there have been 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 over the past 71 years. That's a crash or correction, on average,every 1.87 years. Though the market doesn't adhere to averages, it does give a general sense of when to expect these hiccups.</p>\n<p>On a valuation basis, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is a waving red flag. The S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E -- a measure of inflation-adjusted earnings over the previous 10 years -- almost hit 38 earlier this week. That more than doubles its 151-year average, and it's the highest level in nearly two decades. The previous four times the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30 during a bull market rally, the indexsubsequently declined by a minimum of 20%.</p>\n<p>Make no mistake about it -- a stock market crash is coming.</p>\n<p>Every crash or correction is an opportunity for patient investors to make money</p>\n<p>However, a crash is no reason to duck and cover. While history may signal trouble ahead, it also tells us that each and every double-digit decline has been a buying opportunity. Eventually, every big drop in the major indexes is erased by a bull-market rally. When the next crash does occur, the following five high-conviction stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.</p>\n<p><b>CrowdStrike Holdings</b></p>\n<p>Cybersecurity is projected to beone of the safest double-digit growth trendsthis decade. No matter the size of the business or the state of the U.S./global economy, protecting enterprise and consumer data is paramount. This means cloud-based cybersecurity stock<b>CrowdStrike Holdings</b>(NASDAQ:CRWD)can thrive in any environment.</p>\n<p>CrowdStrike's successderives from its cloud-native Falcon security platform. Because it's built in the cloud and relies on artificial intelligence, it's growing smarter at identifying and responding to threats all the time. It's currently overseeing 6 trillion events on a weekly basis, and it's far more cost-effective at protecting data than on-premise solutions.</p>\n<p>We can also look to the company's income statements to see clear-cut evidence that businesses favor CrowdStrike's cybersecurity platform. It's been retaining 98% of its clients, has seen existing clients spend 23% to 47% more on a year-over-year basis for the past 12 quarters, and recently reported that 64% of its customers have purchased at least four cloud module subscriptions. Scaling with its customers is CrowdStrike's ticket to big-time cash flow expansion.</p>\n<p><b>Facebook</b></p>\n<p>Brand-name businesses can make patient investors a fortune, and social media giant<b>Facebook</b>(NASDAQ:FB)is the perfect example.</p>\n<p>When the curtain closed on March, Facebook tallied 2.85 billion monthly active users (MAU) visiting its namesake site and an additional 600 million unique MAUs visiting WhatsApp or Instagram, which it also owns. All told, this equates to44% of the global populationinteracting with its owned sites each month. There's simply no social media platform businesses can go to get their message to a broader (or potentially targeted) audience, which is why Facebook ad-pricing power is so strong.</p>\n<p>But here's the kicker: Facebookhasn't even put the pedal to the metal. Although it's on track to generate more than $100 billion in advertising revenue in 2021, nearly all of these ad sales are coming from its namesake site and Instagram. WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger, which are two of the six most-visited social sites in the world, aren't being meaningfully monetized as of yet. Further, the company's Oculus virtual reality devices are still in the early stage of their growth. Suffice it to say, Facebook offers ample upside as its other operating segments are monetized and mature.</p>\n<p><b>NextEra Energy</b></p>\n<p>Another high-conviction stock to buy hand over fist the next time a crash or steep correction strikes is electric utility stock<b>NextEra Energy</b>(NYSE:NEE).</p>\n<p>Did I put you to sleep when I said \"electric utility stock?\" Electric utilities are traditionally known for their market-topping dividend yields and persistently low growth rates. But this doesn't describe NextEra Energy. NextEra has aggressively invested in renewable energy projects and is leading the country in solar and wind capacity. As a result of these investments, its electric generation costs have declined and its compound annual growth ratehas consistently been in the high single digitsfor more than a decade. It also doesn't hurt that NextEra is front-running any potential green-energy legislation that might come out of Washington.</p>\n<p>In addition to growth rates that are well above the sector average, NextEra still benefits from the predictability of energy demand. For instance, its regulated utilities (i.e., those not powered by renewable energy) require approval from state utility commissions before price hikes can be passed along to households. This might sound like an inconvenience, but it's actually great news. It means NextEra won't be exposed to potentially volatile wholesale pricing.</p>\n<p><b>Visa</b></p>\n<p>When the next stock market crash arrives, payment processing kingpin<b>Visa</b>(NYSE:V)is a winning company to confidently buy hand over fist. It's also another brand-name company thatcan still make its shareholders a fortune.</p>\n<p>Buying into the Visa growth story is a simple numbers game. Visa grows its revenue and profits when consumers and businesses are spending more. This happens when the U.S. and global economy are expanding. Although contractions and recessions are an inevitable part of the economic cycle, they tend to be short-lived. Meanwhile, periods of economic expansion are almost always measured in years. Buying into Visa during these short-lived crashes or corrections should allow long-term investors to be handsomely rewarded by this numbers game.</p>\n<p>The other interesting thing about Visa is thatit's shunned becoming a lender. You'd think that Visa could generate big bucks from interest income and fees by lending during these long-lived periods of expansion. But lending would also expose Visa to the credit delinquencies that arise during recessions. Operating solely as a payment processor means not having to set aside cash to cover delinquencies. It's why Visa rebounds so much faster than most financial stocks following a recession.</p>\n<p><b>Amazon</b></p>\n<p>Lastly (andwho couldn't see this coming?), investors should take any discount they can get during a crash on e-commerce behemoth<b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ:AMZN).</p>\n<p>Amazon's online marketplace has proved virtually unstoppable for well over a decade. An April 2021 report from eMarketer pegged the company's share of U.S. online sales at 40.4%. That more than quintuples its next-closest competitor and effectively solidifies Amazon as the go-to source for online shopping in the U.S.</p>\n<p>What about those pesky low retail margins, you ask? Amazon has signed up more than 200 million people globally to a Prime membership. The fees collected from Prime members help to offset some of the company's retail-based margin weakness. Prime members are extremely loyal to the Amazon ecosystem and spend far more than non-members, too.</p>\n<p>But it's Amazon's cloud infrastructure segmentthat's the superstar. Amazon Web Services (AWS) brings in around one-eighth of the company's total sales but accounts for well over half its operating income. Since cloud margins are superior to retail and advertising margins, AWS is the company's key to explosive cash flow growth this decade.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Stock Market Crash Is Coming: 5 High-Conviction Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist When It Happens</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Stock Market Crash Is Coming: 5 High-Conviction Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist When It Happens\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-20 09:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/19/stock-market-crash-coming-5-high-conviction-stocks/><strong>fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It might be the last thing you want to hear, but it's the truth:A stock market crash is inevitable.\nSince the March 23, 2020 bottom, investors have enjoyed a historically strong bounce-back rally -- ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/19/stock-market-crash-coming-5-high-conviction-stocks/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","NEP":"Nextera Energy Partners","V":"Visa","CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/19/stock-market-crash-coming-5-high-conviction-stocks/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126454279","content_text":"It might be the last thing you want to hear, but it's the truth:A stock market crash is inevitable.\nSince the March 23, 2020 bottom, investors have enjoyed a historically strong bounce-back rally -- the widely followedS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)has gained an impressive 90%. But both history and valuation metrics unequivocally suggest that a big drop is upcoming for the stock market.\nHistory is pretty clear that trouble lies ahead\nFor example, there have beenone or two double-digit percentage declineswithin the three years following a bottom in each of the previous eight bear markets prior to the coronavirus crash (i.e., dating back to 1960). Although bull markets tend to last years, rebounds from a bear market are never this smooth. We're nearly 15 months past the March 2020 bear-market bottom in the S&P 500 and have yet to see anything close to a double-digit correction.\nTo add to this point, data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research shows that there have been 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 over the past 71 years. That's a crash or correction, on average,every 1.87 years. Though the market doesn't adhere to averages, it does give a general sense of when to expect these hiccups.\nOn a valuation basis, the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is a waving red flag. The S&P 500's Shiller P/E -- a measure of inflation-adjusted earnings over the previous 10 years -- almost hit 38 earlier this week. That more than doubles its 151-year average, and it's the highest level in nearly two decades. The previous four times the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30 during a bull market rally, the indexsubsequently declined by a minimum of 20%.\nMake no mistake about it -- a stock market crash is coming.\nEvery crash or correction is an opportunity for patient investors to make money\nHowever, a crash is no reason to duck and cover. While history may signal trouble ahead, it also tells us that each and every double-digit decline has been a buying opportunity. Eventually, every big drop in the major indexes is erased by a bull-market rally. When the next crash does occur, the following five high-conviction stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.\nCrowdStrike Holdings\nCybersecurity is projected to beone of the safest double-digit growth trendsthis decade. No matter the size of the business or the state of the U.S./global economy, protecting enterprise and consumer data is paramount. This means cloud-based cybersecurity stockCrowdStrike Holdings(NASDAQ:CRWD)can thrive in any environment.\nCrowdStrike's successderives from its cloud-native Falcon security platform. Because it's built in the cloud and relies on artificial intelligence, it's growing smarter at identifying and responding to threats all the time. It's currently overseeing 6 trillion events on a weekly basis, and it's far more cost-effective at protecting data than on-premise solutions.\nWe can also look to the company's income statements to see clear-cut evidence that businesses favor CrowdStrike's cybersecurity platform. It's been retaining 98% of its clients, has seen existing clients spend 23% to 47% more on a year-over-year basis for the past 12 quarters, and recently reported that 64% of its customers have purchased at least four cloud module subscriptions. Scaling with its customers is CrowdStrike's ticket to big-time cash flow expansion.\nFacebook\nBrand-name businesses can make patient investors a fortune, and social media giantFacebook(NASDAQ:FB)is the perfect example.\nWhen the curtain closed on March, Facebook tallied 2.85 billion monthly active users (MAU) visiting its namesake site and an additional 600 million unique MAUs visiting WhatsApp or Instagram, which it also owns. All told, this equates to44% of the global populationinteracting with its owned sites each month. There's simply no social media platform businesses can go to get their message to a broader (or potentially targeted) audience, which is why Facebook ad-pricing power is so strong.\nBut here's the kicker: Facebookhasn't even put the pedal to the metal. Although it's on track to generate more than $100 billion in advertising revenue in 2021, nearly all of these ad sales are coming from its namesake site and Instagram. WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger, which are two of the six most-visited social sites in the world, aren't being meaningfully monetized as of yet. Further, the company's Oculus virtual reality devices are still in the early stage of their growth. Suffice it to say, Facebook offers ample upside as its other operating segments are monetized and mature.\nNextEra Energy\nAnother high-conviction stock to buy hand over fist the next time a crash or steep correction strikes is electric utility stockNextEra Energy(NYSE:NEE).\nDid I put you to sleep when I said \"electric utility stock?\" Electric utilities are traditionally known for their market-topping dividend yields and persistently low growth rates. But this doesn't describe NextEra Energy. NextEra has aggressively invested in renewable energy projects and is leading the country in solar and wind capacity. As a result of these investments, its electric generation costs have declined and its compound annual growth ratehas consistently been in the high single digitsfor more than a decade. It also doesn't hurt that NextEra is front-running any potential green-energy legislation that might come out of Washington.\nIn addition to growth rates that are well above the sector average, NextEra still benefits from the predictability of energy demand. For instance, its regulated utilities (i.e., those not powered by renewable energy) require approval from state utility commissions before price hikes can be passed along to households. This might sound like an inconvenience, but it's actually great news. It means NextEra won't be exposed to potentially volatile wholesale pricing.\nVisa\nWhen the next stock market crash arrives, payment processing kingpinVisa(NYSE:V)is a winning company to confidently buy hand over fist. It's also another brand-name company thatcan still make its shareholders a fortune.\nBuying into the Visa growth story is a simple numbers game. Visa grows its revenue and profits when consumers and businesses are spending more. This happens when the U.S. and global economy are expanding. Although contractions and recessions are an inevitable part of the economic cycle, they tend to be short-lived. Meanwhile, periods of economic expansion are almost always measured in years. Buying into Visa during these short-lived crashes or corrections should allow long-term investors to be handsomely rewarded by this numbers game.\nThe other interesting thing about Visa is thatit's shunned becoming a lender. You'd think that Visa could generate big bucks from interest income and fees by lending during these long-lived periods of expansion. But lending would also expose Visa to the credit delinquencies that arise during recessions. Operating solely as a payment processor means not having to set aside cash to cover delinquencies. It's why Visa rebounds so much faster than most financial stocks following a recession.\nAmazon\nLastly (andwho couldn't see this coming?), investors should take any discount they can get during a crash on e-commerce behemothAmazon(NASDAQ:AMZN).\nAmazon's online marketplace has proved virtually unstoppable for well over a decade. An April 2021 report from eMarketer pegged the company's share of U.S. online sales at 40.4%. That more than quintuples its next-closest competitor and effectively solidifies Amazon as the go-to source for online shopping in the U.S.\nWhat about those pesky low retail margins, you ask? Amazon has signed up more than 200 million people globally to a Prime membership. The fees collected from Prime members help to offset some of the company's retail-based margin weakness. Prime members are extremely loyal to the Amazon ecosystem and spend far more than non-members, too.\nBut it's Amazon's cloud infrastructure segmentthat's the superstar. Amazon Web Services (AWS) brings in around one-eighth of the company's total sales but accounts for well over half its operating income. Since cloud margins are superior to retail and advertising margins, AWS is the company's key to explosive cash flow growth this decade.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167580401,"gmtCreate":1624277203503,"gmtModify":1634008552618,"author":{"id":"3581839854871924","authorId":"3581839854871924","name":"Dabi2","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581839854871924","authorIdStr":"3581839854871924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice!","listText":"Nice!","text":"Nice!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167580401","repostId":"1154249454","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":58,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129603872,"gmtCreate":1624370032496,"gmtModify":1634007148457,"author":{"id":"3581839854871924","authorId":"3581839854871924","name":"Dabi2","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581839854871924","authorIdStr":"3581839854871924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129603872","repostId":"2145056554","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145056554","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1624356900,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2145056554?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 18:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 3 Dow Stocks Are Set to Soar in 2021's Second Half","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145056554","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Here are the companies investors are most excited about -- and why.","content":"<p>The <b>Dow Jones Industrial Average </b>(DJINDICES:^DJI) has had a solid year so far in 2021. Gains of 9% might not seem like all that much compared to the double-digit percentage gains we've seen in past years. But given everything that's happening in the economy, it's not surprising to see investors rein in their expectations somewhat on some of the top-performing stocks in the market.</p>\n<p>Yet even with the gains the overall market has seen, there are still some Dow stocks that haven't climbed as far as they might. In particular, analysts looking at three stocks among the Dow Jones Industrials see the potential for substantial gains in the second half of 2021 and beyond. Below, we'll look at these three companies to see what it'll take for them to produce the big returns that investors want right now.</p>\n<h3>UnitedHealth: 34% upside</h3>\n<p><b>UnitedHealth Group </b>(NYSE:UNH) has already put in a reasonable performance in the Dow so far this year. The health insurance giant's stock is up about 11% year to date, outpacing the broader average very slightly.</p>\n<p>Yet investors see a lot more upside for the healthcare giant. The top price target among Wall Street analysts for UnitedHealth is $522 per share, which implies roughly a 34% gain from current levels.</p>\n<p>UnitedHealth has done an excellent job of navigating the ever-changing landscape of the healthcare and health insurance industries. As the largest health insurance company in the world, UnitedHealth offers coverage not just for private businesses but also for those eligible for government programs like Medicare and Medicaid.</p>\n<p>Indeed, UnitedHealth's handling of plans under the Affordable Care Act has been masterful, with the company having participated in the program better known as Obamacare while not overcommitting to it. With the Supreme Court having recently upheld the validity of the Affordable Care Act, UnitedHealth finds itself in a strong position to keep benefiting from its mix of business.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe66b7aafd67e07dd42007f2b60d638\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>\n<p>Yet many overlook the value of UnitedHealth's Optum health services unit. By aiming to help providers encourage health and wellness, Optum generates higher-margin revenue while often producing better outcomes for patients and members. With both growth drivers pushing the company forward, UnitedHealth looks well poised to keep climbing.</p>\n<h3>Goldman Sachs: 36% upside</h3>\n<p>Wall Street has enjoyed the bull market in stocks, and that's been a blessing for investment bank <b>Goldman Sachs </b>(NYSE:GS). The perennial financial giant has seen its stock rise 34% so far in 2021 after less impressive performance during 2020.</p>\n<p>On <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> hand, Goldman has reflected the broader performance of financial stocks across the market. Interest rates have generally been on the rise, and that's bolstered the prospects for more net-interest income from retail banking operations. Goldman lags behind its big-bank peers on the consumer banking front, but its relatively new Marcus unit has done a good job of attracting capital thus far.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, Goldman continues to rely on its investment banking operations, and strong activity levels among initial public offerings and mergers and acquisitions (M&amp;A) have fed the company's coffers nicely. Financing remains relatively easy to get, and that could spur more M&amp;A activity that in turn could keep growing revenue for Goldman's investment banking division. Add to that possible tailwinds from macroeconomic factors, and it is in a solid position to climb as high as the $484 per share that represents the top price target among those following the financial stock.</p>\n<h3>Apple: 42% upside</h3>\n<p>Lastly, <b>Apple </b>(NASDAQ:AAPL) rounds out this list. Recently fetching $130 per share, some see the iPhone maker's stock climbing to $185. That'd be a 42% jump to help Apple recover from its 2% loss so far in 2021.</p>\n<p>Apple's gains have continued to impress. Revenue jumped 54% in its most recent quarter, with sales of the iPhone 12 and various other products and accessories continuing to drive sales for the company. Returning capital to shareholders via dividends and stock buybacks has had a substantial impact on financial performance, especially with the number of outstanding shares having plunged by roughly 35% in just the past decade.</p>\n<p>Many fear that Apple hasn't generated the innovative product lines that drove its success in the mid-2000s. However, at least for now, consumers seem content with iterations on existing product lines, and as long as that remains a successful strategy, further gains for the stock seem realistic.</p>\n<h3>Further to run?</h3>\n<p>Even with solid gains for the Dow in 2021, the long-term trajectory for stocks remains upward. That's a big part of why Apple, Goldman Sachs, and UnitedHealth Group look as promising as they do. Smart investors should at least keep an eye on these three stocks to see if they can live up to their full potential.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 3 Dow Stocks Are Set to Soar in 2021's Second Half</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 3 Dow Stocks Are Set to Soar in 2021's Second Half\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-22 18:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/22/these-3-dow-stocks-set-to-soar-2021s-second-half/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES:^DJI) has had a solid year so far in 2021. Gains of 9% might not seem like all that much compared to the double-digit percentage gains we've seen in past ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/22/these-3-dow-stocks-set-to-soar-2021s-second-half/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛","09086":"华夏纳指-U","03086":"华夏纳指","AAPL":"苹果","UNH":"联合健康"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/22/these-3-dow-stocks-set-to-soar-2021s-second-half/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145056554","content_text":"The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES:^DJI) has had a solid year so far in 2021. Gains of 9% might not seem like all that much compared to the double-digit percentage gains we've seen in past years. But given everything that's happening in the economy, it's not surprising to see investors rein in their expectations somewhat on some of the top-performing stocks in the market.\nYet even with the gains the overall market has seen, there are still some Dow stocks that haven't climbed as far as they might. In particular, analysts looking at three stocks among the Dow Jones Industrials see the potential for substantial gains in the second half of 2021 and beyond. Below, we'll look at these three companies to see what it'll take for them to produce the big returns that investors want right now.\nUnitedHealth: 34% upside\nUnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH) has already put in a reasonable performance in the Dow so far this year. The health insurance giant's stock is up about 11% year to date, outpacing the broader average very slightly.\nYet investors see a lot more upside for the healthcare giant. The top price target among Wall Street analysts for UnitedHealth is $522 per share, which implies roughly a 34% gain from current levels.\nUnitedHealth has done an excellent job of navigating the ever-changing landscape of the healthcare and health insurance industries. As the largest health insurance company in the world, UnitedHealth offers coverage not just for private businesses but also for those eligible for government programs like Medicare and Medicaid.\nIndeed, UnitedHealth's handling of plans under the Affordable Care Act has been masterful, with the company having participated in the program better known as Obamacare while not overcommitting to it. With the Supreme Court having recently upheld the validity of the Affordable Care Act, UnitedHealth finds itself in a strong position to keep benefiting from its mix of business.\n\nImage source: Getty Images.\nYet many overlook the value of UnitedHealth's Optum health services unit. By aiming to help providers encourage health and wellness, Optum generates higher-margin revenue while often producing better outcomes for patients and members. With both growth drivers pushing the company forward, UnitedHealth looks well poised to keep climbing.\nGoldman Sachs: 36% upside\nWall Street has enjoyed the bull market in stocks, and that's been a blessing for investment bank Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS). The perennial financial giant has seen its stock rise 34% so far in 2021 after less impressive performance during 2020.\nOn one hand, Goldman has reflected the broader performance of financial stocks across the market. Interest rates have generally been on the rise, and that's bolstered the prospects for more net-interest income from retail banking operations. Goldman lags behind its big-bank peers on the consumer banking front, but its relatively new Marcus unit has done a good job of attracting capital thus far.\nOn the other hand, Goldman continues to rely on its investment banking operations, and strong activity levels among initial public offerings and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) have fed the company's coffers nicely. Financing remains relatively easy to get, and that could spur more M&A activity that in turn could keep growing revenue for Goldman's investment banking division. Add to that possible tailwinds from macroeconomic factors, and it is in a solid position to climb as high as the $484 per share that represents the top price target among those following the financial stock.\nApple: 42% upside\nLastly, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) rounds out this list. Recently fetching $130 per share, some see the iPhone maker's stock climbing to $185. That'd be a 42% jump to help Apple recover from its 2% loss so far in 2021.\nApple's gains have continued to impress. Revenue jumped 54% in its most recent quarter, with sales of the iPhone 12 and various other products and accessories continuing to drive sales for the company. Returning capital to shareholders via dividends and stock buybacks has had a substantial impact on financial performance, especially with the number of outstanding shares having plunged by roughly 35% in just the past decade.\nMany fear that Apple hasn't generated the innovative product lines that drove its success in the mid-2000s. However, at least for now, consumers seem content with iterations on existing product lines, and as long as that remains a successful strategy, further gains for the stock seem realistic.\nFurther to run?\nEven with solid gains for the Dow in 2021, the long-term trajectory for stocks remains upward. That's a big part of why Apple, Goldman Sachs, and UnitedHealth Group look as promising as they do. Smart investors should at least keep an eye on these three stocks to see if they can live up to their full potential.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164120695,"gmtCreate":1624182510817,"gmtModify":1634009712805,"author":{"id":"3581839854871924","authorId":"3581839854871924","name":"Dabi2","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581839854871924","authorIdStr":"3581839854871924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice read!","listText":"Nice read!","text":"Nice read!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164120695","repostId":"1133385197","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121172904,"gmtCreate":1624457666008,"gmtModify":1634005852009,"author":{"id":"3581839854871924","authorId":"3581839854871924","name":"Dabi2","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581839854871924","authorIdStr":"3581839854871924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice read&nbsp;","listText":"Nice read&nbsp;","text":"Nice read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121172904","repostId":"1170395888","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170395888","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624457324,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170395888?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 22:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170395888","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 23) Most of Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.\n\nDo Hedge Funds Thin","content":"<p>(June 23)&nbsp;Most&nbsp;of&nbsp;Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57df6b30357b75fb3994787c3780885e\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Do Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?</b></p>\n<p>At first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/055cab6f7b38ad60f8784706fac000bf\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The largest stake in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.</p>\n<p>As industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.</p>\n<p>Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.</p>\n<p>As you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.</p>\n<p><b>TAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry</b></p>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>FY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.</li>\n <li>In 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.</li>\n <li>Unlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.</li>\n <li>With COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.</li>\n <li>We do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>TAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education &amp; parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.</p>\n<p>In China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.</p>\n<p>As parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.</p>\n<p><b>Decent financial results</b></p>\n<p>TAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0bea7dc26e41fa05c9d8fef1c355e7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>New market opportunities</b></p>\n<p>In the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.</p>\n<p>In 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c29976387d48527f1570b7fbf255f1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.</p>\n<p>TAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.</p>\n<p>The re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.</p>\n<p>TAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.</p>\n<p>Results from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.</p>\n<p><b>Less venture investment presence</b></p>\n<p>Since 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af6af29d7cc826e97357d73c53b7a51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>The entrance of tech giants</b></p>\n<p>Sales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.</p>\n<p>With upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.</p>\n<p>The education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.</p>\n<p><b>Allegation probe</b></p>\n<p>In April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.</p>\n<p>Two years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"</p>\n<p><b>Bottom line</b></p>\n<p>This might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.</p>\n<h3>Gaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced</h3>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).</li>\n <li>Adverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.</li>\n <li>Growth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.</li>\n <li>Despite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Newly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.</p>\n<p><b>Growing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels</b></p>\n<p>Worryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2602f4695bfb8d694d546b29bca897a\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p>\n<p>However, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.</p>\n<p><b>Adult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver</b></p>\n<p>Within the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98361534c62ba1d36e6adf2696116a49\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing</p>\n<p>Notably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.</p>\n<p><b>Online Regulations Remain the Key Concern</b></p>\n<p>Looking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.</p>\n<p>Any restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a96e5d1f7d5a8fb561314a81180e06dd\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source: GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p>\n<p><b>Final Take</b></p>\n<p>Overall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd579bffc2a24fd55d7ccc3346eae7cb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-23 22:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 23)&nbsp;Most&nbsp;of&nbsp;Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57df6b30357b75fb3994787c3780885e\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Do Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?</b></p>\n<p>At first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/055cab6f7b38ad60f8784706fac000bf\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The largest stake in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.</p>\n<p>As industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.</p>\n<p>Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.</p>\n<p>As you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.</p>\n<p><b>TAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry</b></p>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>FY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.</li>\n <li>In 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.</li>\n <li>Unlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.</li>\n <li>With COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.</li>\n <li>We do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>TAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education &amp; parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.</p>\n<p>In China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.</p>\n<p>As parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.</p>\n<p><b>Decent financial results</b></p>\n<p>TAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0bea7dc26e41fa05c9d8fef1c355e7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>New market opportunities</b></p>\n<p>In the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.</p>\n<p>In 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c29976387d48527f1570b7fbf255f1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.</p>\n<p>TAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.</p>\n<p>The re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.</p>\n<p>TAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.</p>\n<p>Results from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.</p>\n<p><b>Less venture investment presence</b></p>\n<p>Since 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af6af29d7cc826e97357d73c53b7a51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>The entrance of tech giants</b></p>\n<p>Sales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.</p>\n<p>With upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.</p>\n<p>The education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.</p>\n<p><b>Allegation probe</b></p>\n<p>In April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.</p>\n<p>Two years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"</p>\n<p><b>Bottom line</b></p>\n<p>This might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.</p>\n<h3>Gaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced</h3>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).</li>\n <li>Adverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.</li>\n <li>Growth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.</li>\n <li>Despite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Newly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.</p>\n<p><b>Growing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels</b></p>\n<p>Worryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2602f4695bfb8d694d546b29bca897a\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p>\n<p>However, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.</p>\n<p><b>Adult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver</b></p>\n<p>Within the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98361534c62ba1d36e6adf2696116a49\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing</p>\n<p>Notably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.</p>\n<p><b>Online Regulations Remain the Key Concern</b></p>\n<p>Looking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.</p>\n<p>Any restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a96e5d1f7d5a8fb561314a81180e06dd\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source: GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p>\n<p><b>Final Take</b></p>\n<p>Overall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd579bffc2a24fd55d7ccc3346eae7cb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TAL":"好未来","EDU":"新东方","GOTU":"高途"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170395888","content_text":"(June 23) Most of Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.\n\nDo Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?\nAt first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).\nThe largest stake in New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.\nAs industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.\nLet's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.\nAs you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.\nTAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry\nSummary\n\nFY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.\nIn 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.\nUnlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.\nWith COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.\nWe do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.\n\nTAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education & parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.\nIn China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.\nAs parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.\nDecent financial results\nTAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.\nNew market opportunities\nIn the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.\nIn 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.\n\nThe fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.\nTAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.\nThe re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.\nTAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.\nResults from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.\nLess venture investment presence\nSince 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.\n\nThe entrance of tech giants\nSales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.\nWith upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.\nThe education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.\nAllegation probe\nIn April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.\nTwo years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"\nBottom line\nThis might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.\nGaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced\nSummary\n\nThe longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).\nAdverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.\nGrowth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.\nDespite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.\n\nNewly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.\nGrowing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels\nWorryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).\n\nSource:GSX Investor Presentation Slides\nHowever, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.\nAdult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver\nWithin the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.\n\nSource:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing\nNotably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.\nOnline Regulations Remain the Key Concern\nLooking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.\nAny restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.\n\nSource: GSX Investor Presentation Slides\nFinal Take\nOverall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.\nData by YCharts","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129607719,"gmtCreate":1624370205331,"gmtModify":1634007144172,"author":{"id":"3581839854871924","authorId":"3581839854871924","name":"Dabi2","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581839854871924","authorIdStr":"3581839854871924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I need T","listText":"I need T","text":"I need T","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129607719","repostId":"1119119362","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119119362","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624366070,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119119362?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 20:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Barclays raises its targets for GM and Ford shares as car prices rise","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119119362","media":"cnbc","summary":"Rising car prices should give an additional boost toFordandGeneral Motorsshares, according to Barcla","content":"<div>\n<p>Rising car prices should give an additional boost toFordandGeneral Motorsshares, according to Barclays.\nIncreased demand for cars during the pandemic, as well as productions shutdowns due to the virus...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/22/barclays-raises-its-targets-for-gm-and-ford-shares-as-car-prices-rise.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Barclays raises its targets for GM and Ford shares as car prices rise</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBarclays raises its targets for GM and Ford shares as car prices rise\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-22 20:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/22/barclays-raises-its-targets-for-gm-and-ford-shares-as-car-prices-rise.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Rising car prices should give an additional boost toFordandGeneral Motorsshares, according to Barclays.\nIncreased demand for cars during the pandemic, as well as productions shutdowns due to the virus...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/22/barclays-raises-its-targets-for-gm-and-ford-shares-as-car-prices-rise.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车","GM":"通用汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/22/barclays-raises-its-targets-for-gm-and-ford-shares-as-car-prices-rise.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1119119362","content_text":"Rising car prices should give an additional boost toFordandGeneral Motorsshares, according to Barclays.\nIncreased demand for cars during the pandemic, as well as productions shutdowns due to the virus and supply chain issues, has pushed up the price of cars in the United States sharply over the past year.\nBarclays analyst Brian Johnson said in a note to clients on Tuesday that prices still appear to be rising, and he hiked his price targets for both stocks.\n“Mid-month pricing data indicate stronger-than-expected pricing for both Ford and GM. Indeed, mid-month data show a step-up in average transaction prices and a step-down in incentive spending,” the note said.\nIn particular, the price of large pickup trucks jumped about $2,500 month over month, according to Barclays.\nThe firm raised its price target for Ford to $17 per share from $15 and for GM to $74 per share from $70. Those price targets are roughly 15% and 25%, respectively, above where the stocks closed on Monday.\nBoth stocks have performed well in 2021 as the legacy automakers have rolled out their plans to transition to electric vehicles. Shares of Ford have surged 68% year to date, while GM has jumped more than 42%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164129697,"gmtCreate":1624182565019,"gmtModify":1634009711833,"author":{"id":"3581839854871924","authorId":"3581839854871924","name":"Dabi2","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581839854871924","authorIdStr":"3581839854871924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and share&nbsp;","listText":"Like and share&nbsp;","text":"Like and share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164129697","repostId":"1113942445","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121802873,"gmtCreate":1624457820992,"gmtModify":1634005843985,"author":{"id":"3581839854871924","authorId":"3581839854871924","name":"Dabi2","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581839854871924","authorIdStr":"3581839854871924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121802873","repostId":"2145950390","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145950390","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1624454400,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2145950390?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 21:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 3 Warren Buffett Stocks Will Help You Beat the Next Stock Market Crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145950390","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"It's important to own shares of high-quality businesses.","content":"<p>It's hard to overemphasize the positive impact that legendary investor Warren Buffett has had on the investing world. After more than half a century at <b>Berkshire Hathaway </b>(NYSE:BRK.A) (NYSE:BRK.B), Buffett continues to contribute to the collective knowledge base through his witty, down-to-earth comments on the state of the stock market and his preferred investing strategy.</p>\n<p>Buffett would be the first to tell you that a stock market crash is inevitable, and when a long bull-market run ends, investors finally get a chance to see which stocks have strong businesses underpinning their long-term success. Below, you'll find three Warren Buffett holdings that should help investors weather the coming stock market storm. They won't necessarily avoid losses entirely in a crash, but they have the long-term staying power to recover for their shareholders.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83be5a41077ce17c2e4391b5b8225228\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>\n<p>Verizon Communications</p>\n<p><b>Verizon Communications </b>(NYSE:VZ), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of Buffett's more recent stock picks, first became part of the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio in the fourth quarter of 2020. However, the Oracle of Omaha hasn't pulled any punches in making the wireless telecom giant a major part of his holdings, as the stake in Verizon amounts to $9.2 billion and ranks sixth among Berkshire's list of stocks.</p>\n<p>Verizon checks many of the boxes that Buffett looks for in a great investment. As the leading provider of wireless telecom services, Verizon has played a key role in furthering technological advances and the mobile revolution. Although investing in upgraded 5G network technology will be costly, Verizon has demonstrated its ability to maintain some pricing power despite strong competition from other providers.</p>\n<p>The steady stream of monthly subscription charges gives Verizon impressive levels of cash flow that the company has returned to shareholders through dividends. Verizon's stock yields 4.5% currently, yet with an earnings multiple in the low teens, the telecom giant is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the few areas in which traditional value metrics suggest a bargain opportunity. With a combination of growth prospects and stable and consistent dividend income, Verizon is a standard pick for Buffett's methodology.</p>\n<h3>General Motors</h3>\n<p><b>General Motors </b>(NYSE:GM) has been in the Berkshire portfolio a lot longer, with purchases dating back to early 2012. At that time, GM was just emerging from its financial crisis-induced bankruptcy filing, having wiped out previous stock investors. Many investors were uncertain whether the Big 3 automaker would ever return to its former glory.</p>\n<p>Fast forward nearly a decade, and General Motors looks a lot different. The automaker has embraced the electric vehicle (EV) movement, recently boosting its commitment toward EV investment from $20 billion to $35 billion over the next four years. The company's Cruise subsidiary has made dramatic advances in autonomous driving, becoming the first company to offer ride-hailing services without a safety driver to California riders. Meanwhile, GM itself expects to introduce at least 30 new EV models by 2025, including electric versions of some iconic brand models. A big part of its success hinges on its Ultium in-house battery platform, but GM isn't being stingy about putting financial resources behind its efforts.</p>\n<p>General Motors doesn't pay a dividend, but an earnings multiple below 10 shows that most investors are discounting the automaker's growth potential. Buffett has often made a killing by betting against the crowd in situations like this, and he clearly sees greater prospects for GM than do most investors. Despite trimming its GM position recently, Berkshire still counts the automaker among its top 10 holdings.</p>\n<h3>Kroger</h3>\n<p>Finally, Berkshire recently boosted its position in grocery giant <b>Kroger </b>(NYSE:KR). Buffett now owns about $1.8 billion worth of Kroger stock, giving it a nearly 7% stake in the company.</p>\n<p>Kroger has a reliable business in consumer staples that has prospered over the past year and a half. Huge demand for necessities helped bolster Kroger's stock early on in the COVID-19 pandemic, and the grocery chain has managed to build on that upward momentum to keep moving forward in 2021. Even as the company faces difficult comparisons over the rest of the year, Kroger is managing to surpass expectations in holding onto more of its gains.</p>\n<p>With an earnings multiple above 20 and a dividend yield of less than 2%, Kroger might not seem like the most attractive of Warren Buffett stocks. However, its ability to hold up well even under difficult business conditions makes it a valuable holding, and dividend growth over the long run has helped reward longtime shareholders.</p>\n<h3>Be ready for the crash</h3>\n<p>The stock market has done extremely well lately, but smart investors are always ready for what could come next. With their attractive traits, Kroger, General Motors, and Verizon all have a lot going for them, and they're in a better position than many other stocks to weather the next stock market crash and keep growing over the long run.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 3 Warren Buffett Stocks Will Help You Beat the Next Stock Market Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 3 Warren Buffett Stocks Will Help You Beat the Next Stock Market Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 21:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/these-3-warren-buffett-stocks-will-help-you-beat-t/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It's hard to overemphasize the positive impact that legendary investor Warren Buffett has had on the investing world. After more than half a century at Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A) (NYSE:BRK.B), ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/these-3-warren-buffett-stocks-will-help-you-beat-t/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","VZ":"威瑞森","GM":"通用汽车","KR":"克罗格"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/these-3-warren-buffett-stocks-will-help-you-beat-t/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145950390","content_text":"It's hard to overemphasize the positive impact that legendary investor Warren Buffett has had on the investing world. After more than half a century at Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A) (NYSE:BRK.B), Buffett continues to contribute to the collective knowledge base through his witty, down-to-earth comments on the state of the stock market and his preferred investing strategy.\nBuffett would be the first to tell you that a stock market crash is inevitable, and when a long bull-market run ends, investors finally get a chance to see which stocks have strong businesses underpinning their long-term success. Below, you'll find three Warren Buffett holdings that should help investors weather the coming stock market storm. They won't necessarily avoid losses entirely in a crash, but they have the long-term staying power to recover for their shareholders.\n\nImage source: The Motley Fool.\nVerizon Communications\nVerizon Communications (NYSE:VZ), one of Buffett's more recent stock picks, first became part of the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio in the fourth quarter of 2020. However, the Oracle of Omaha hasn't pulled any punches in making the wireless telecom giant a major part of his holdings, as the stake in Verizon amounts to $9.2 billion and ranks sixth among Berkshire's list of stocks.\nVerizon checks many of the boxes that Buffett looks for in a great investment. As the leading provider of wireless telecom services, Verizon has played a key role in furthering technological advances and the mobile revolution. Although investing in upgraded 5G network technology will be costly, Verizon has demonstrated its ability to maintain some pricing power despite strong competition from other providers.\nThe steady stream of monthly subscription charges gives Verizon impressive levels of cash flow that the company has returned to shareholders through dividends. Verizon's stock yields 4.5% currently, yet with an earnings multiple in the low teens, the telecom giant is one of the few areas in which traditional value metrics suggest a bargain opportunity. With a combination of growth prospects and stable and consistent dividend income, Verizon is a standard pick for Buffett's methodology.\nGeneral Motors\nGeneral Motors (NYSE:GM) has been in the Berkshire portfolio a lot longer, with purchases dating back to early 2012. At that time, GM was just emerging from its financial crisis-induced bankruptcy filing, having wiped out previous stock investors. Many investors were uncertain whether the Big 3 automaker would ever return to its former glory.\nFast forward nearly a decade, and General Motors looks a lot different. The automaker has embraced the electric vehicle (EV) movement, recently boosting its commitment toward EV investment from $20 billion to $35 billion over the next four years. The company's Cruise subsidiary has made dramatic advances in autonomous driving, becoming the first company to offer ride-hailing services without a safety driver to California riders. Meanwhile, GM itself expects to introduce at least 30 new EV models by 2025, including electric versions of some iconic brand models. A big part of its success hinges on its Ultium in-house battery platform, but GM isn't being stingy about putting financial resources behind its efforts.\nGeneral Motors doesn't pay a dividend, but an earnings multiple below 10 shows that most investors are discounting the automaker's growth potential. Buffett has often made a killing by betting against the crowd in situations like this, and he clearly sees greater prospects for GM than do most investors. Despite trimming its GM position recently, Berkshire still counts the automaker among its top 10 holdings.\nKroger\nFinally, Berkshire recently boosted its position in grocery giant Kroger (NYSE:KR). Buffett now owns about $1.8 billion worth of Kroger stock, giving it a nearly 7% stake in the company.\nKroger has a reliable business in consumer staples that has prospered over the past year and a half. Huge demand for necessities helped bolster Kroger's stock early on in the COVID-19 pandemic, and the grocery chain has managed to build on that upward momentum to keep moving forward in 2021. Even as the company faces difficult comparisons over the rest of the year, Kroger is managing to surpass expectations in holding onto more of its gains.\nWith an earnings multiple above 20 and a dividend yield of less than 2%, Kroger might not seem like the most attractive of Warren Buffett stocks. However, its ability to hold up well even under difficult business conditions makes it a valuable holding, and dividend growth over the long run has helped reward longtime shareholders.\nBe ready for the crash\nThe stock market has done extremely well lately, but smart investors are always ready for what could come next. With their attractive traits, Kroger, General Motors, and Verizon all have a lot going for them, and they're in a better position than many other stocks to weather the next stock market crash and keep growing over the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129602996,"gmtCreate":1624370101115,"gmtModify":1634007146325,"author":{"id":"3581839854871924","authorId":"3581839854871924","name":"Dabi2","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581839854871924","authorIdStr":"3581839854871924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129602996","repostId":"1187133273","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}