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2021-06-23

Which will be the third company to do so?

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2021-06-21

Nike of course

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2021-07-21

Hope the rebounce will be sustainable

Wall Street bounces back on renewed economic optimism

2021-06-22

Former Chartered Semiconductor

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2021-06-19

Hope the prediction is correct

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2021-06-20

Go Boeing go

Largest Boeing 737 MAX model takes off on maiden flight

2021-06-17

Vested

Apple Stock Forecast For 2025: A Slow Start, Then Strong Growth

2021-06-16

Hope it opens over 10% lower tonight

Roblox Slides After Reporting Month-Over-Month Drop in Bookings

2021-06-18

//@pekss:Vested

1 Growth Stock That Could Be Bigger Than Apple

2021-06-18

Can hold both

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The Nasdaq posted its first gain in six sessions.</p>\n<p>\"It’s a buy-the-dip mentality coming into the market,\" said Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services in Hammond, Indiana.</p>\n<p>Economically sensitive small caps&nbsp;and transports&nbsp;outperformed the broader market.</p>\n<p>Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields bounced back from five-month lows, in the wake of their biggest single-session decline since February in the prior session . This helped boost rate-vulnerable banks by 2.6%.</p>\n<p>\"The economically sensitive stocks are up today,\" Carlson added. \"When the 10-year (Treasury yield) goes down in a short period of time, that typically doesn’t happen with an economy that’s supposed to be growing. Firming in the 10-year (yield) indicates that perhaps the economy isn’t going to be falling off a cliff.\"</p>\n<p>Mounting concerns over the highly contagious Delta variant of COVID-19, now responsible for the majority of new infections, have sparked sell-offs in recent sessions as worldwide vaccination efforts gather momentum.</p>\n<p>\"Things like the Delta variant can certainly impact in the margins,\" Carlson said. \"It doesn’t take a whole lot of fear in some investors to create what we saw yesterday.\"</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 549.95 points, or 1.62%, to 34,511.99, the S&amp;P 500 gained 64.57 points, or 1.52%, to 4,323.06 and the Nasdaq Composite added 223.89 points, or 1.57%, to 14,498.88.</p>\n<p>Of the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500, all but consumer staples closed green. Industrials fared best, rising 2.7%.</p>\n<p>Second-quarter reporting season has hit full-stride, with 56 of the companies in the S&amp;P 500 having posted results. Of those, 91% have beaten consensus, according to Refinitiv.</p>\n<p>Analysts now see annual S&amp;P earnings growth of 72.9% for the April-June period, a significant improvement over the 54% growth seen at the beginning of the quarter.</p>\n<p>Halliburton Co&nbsp;rose 3.7% after a bounce-back in crude prices boosted oilfield services demand, leading the company to post its second consecutive quarterly profit.</p>\n<p>Peloton Interactive Inc&nbsp;advanced 6.7% after announcing it would provide UnitedHealth Group's fully insured members free access to its live and on-demand fitness classes.</p>\n<p>Moderna's&nbsp;stock dropped 2% in a volatile session on Tuesday, with the COVID-19 vaccine maker the most heavily traded company on Wall Street ahead of its debut in the S&amp;P 500 on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>Netflix Inc&nbsp;shares dipped more than 3% in after- hours trading after its forecast missed estimates.</p>\n<p>Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill gained over 2% post-market after its earnings and revenue beat consensus.</p>\n<p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 4.44-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.59-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 41 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 45 new highs and 76 new lows.</p>\n<p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.62 billion shares, compared with the 10.19 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street bounces back on renewed economic optimism</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street bounces back on renewed economic optimism\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-21 04:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK, July 20 (Reuters) - Wall Street ended sharply higher on Tuesday, rebounding from a multi-day losing streak as a string of upbeat earnings reports and revived economic optimism fueled a risk-on rally.</p>\n<p>All three major U.S. stock indexes gained more than 1% with the blue-chip Dow, on the heels of its worst day in nine months, leading the charge.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P notched its first advance in four days as well as registering its strongest day since March. The Nasdaq posted its first gain in six sessions.</p>\n<p>\"It’s a buy-the-dip mentality coming into the market,\" said Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services in Hammond, Indiana.</p>\n<p>Economically sensitive small caps&nbsp;and transports&nbsp;outperformed the broader market.</p>\n<p>Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields bounced back from five-month lows, in the wake of their biggest single-session decline since February in the prior session . This helped boost rate-vulnerable banks by 2.6%.</p>\n<p>\"The economically sensitive stocks are up today,\" Carlson added. \"When the 10-year (Treasury yield) goes down in a short period of time, that typically doesn’t happen with an economy that’s supposed to be growing. Firming in the 10-year (yield) indicates that perhaps the economy isn’t going to be falling off a cliff.\"</p>\n<p>Mounting concerns over the highly contagious Delta variant of COVID-19, now responsible for the majority of new infections, have sparked sell-offs in recent sessions as worldwide vaccination efforts gather momentum.</p>\n<p>\"Things like the Delta variant can certainly impact in the margins,\" Carlson said. \"It doesn’t take a whole lot of fear in some investors to create what we saw yesterday.\"</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 549.95 points, or 1.62%, to 34,511.99, the S&amp;P 500 gained 64.57 points, or 1.52%, to 4,323.06 and the Nasdaq Composite added 223.89 points, or 1.57%, to 14,498.88.</p>\n<p>Of the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500, all but consumer staples closed green. Industrials fared best, rising 2.7%.</p>\n<p>Second-quarter reporting season has hit full-stride, with 56 of the companies in the S&amp;P 500 having posted results. Of those, 91% have beaten consensus, according to Refinitiv.</p>\n<p>Analysts now see annual S&amp;P earnings growth of 72.9% for the April-June period, a significant improvement over the 54% growth seen at the beginning of the quarter.</p>\n<p>Halliburton Co&nbsp;rose 3.7% after a bounce-back in crude prices boosted oilfield services demand, leading the company to post its second consecutive quarterly profit.</p>\n<p>Peloton Interactive Inc&nbsp;advanced 6.7% after announcing it would provide UnitedHealth Group's fully insured members free access to its live and on-demand fitness classes.</p>\n<p>Moderna's&nbsp;stock dropped 2% in a volatile session on Tuesday, with the COVID-19 vaccine maker the most heavily traded company on Wall Street ahead of its debut in the S&amp;P 500 on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>Netflix Inc&nbsp;shares dipped more than 3% in after- hours trading after its forecast missed estimates.</p>\n<p>Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill gained over 2% post-market after its earnings and revenue beat consensus.</p>\n<p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 4.44-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.59-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 41 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 45 new highs and 76 new lows.</p>\n<p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.62 billion shares, compared with the 10.19 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153924256","content_text":"NEW YORK, July 20 (Reuters) - Wall Street ended sharply higher on Tuesday, rebounding from a multi-day losing streak as a string of upbeat earnings reports and revived economic optimism fueled a risk-on rally.\nAll three major U.S. stock indexes gained more than 1% with the blue-chip Dow, on the heels of its worst day in nine months, leading the charge.\nThe S&P notched its first advance in four days as well as registering its strongest day since March. The Nasdaq posted its first gain in six sessions.\n\"It’s a buy-the-dip mentality coming into the market,\" said Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services in Hammond, Indiana.\nEconomically sensitive small caps and transports outperformed the broader market.\nBenchmark U.S. Treasury yields bounced back from five-month lows, in the wake of their biggest single-session decline since February in the prior session . This helped boost rate-vulnerable banks by 2.6%.\n\"The economically sensitive stocks are up today,\" Carlson added. \"When the 10-year (Treasury yield) goes down in a short period of time, that typically doesn’t happen with an economy that’s supposed to be growing. Firming in the 10-year (yield) indicates that perhaps the economy isn’t going to be falling off a cliff.\"\nMounting concerns over the highly contagious Delta variant of COVID-19, now responsible for the majority of new infections, have sparked sell-offs in recent sessions as worldwide vaccination efforts gather momentum.\n\"Things like the Delta variant can certainly impact in the margins,\" Carlson said. \"It doesn’t take a whole lot of fear in some investors to create what we saw yesterday.\"\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 549.95 points, or 1.62%, to 34,511.99, the S&P 500 gained 64.57 points, or 1.52%, to 4,323.06 and the Nasdaq Composite added 223.89 points, or 1.57%, to 14,498.88.\nOf the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500, all but consumer staples closed green. Industrials fared best, rising 2.7%.\nSecond-quarter reporting season has hit full-stride, with 56 of the companies in the S&P 500 having posted results. Of those, 91% have beaten consensus, according to Refinitiv.\nAnalysts now see annual S&P earnings growth of 72.9% for the April-June period, a significant improvement over the 54% growth seen at the beginning of the quarter.\nHalliburton Co rose 3.7% after a bounce-back in crude prices boosted oilfield services demand, leading the company to post its second consecutive quarterly profit.\nPeloton Interactive Inc advanced 6.7% after announcing it would provide UnitedHealth Group's fully insured members free access to its live and on-demand fitness classes.\nModerna's stock dropped 2% in a volatile session on Tuesday, with the COVID-19 vaccine maker the most heavily traded company on Wall Street ahead of its debut in the S&P 500 on Wednesday.\nNetflix Inc shares dipped more than 3% in after- hours trading after its forecast missed estimates.\nShares of Chipotle Mexican Grill gained over 2% post-market after its earnings and revenue beat consensus.\nAdvancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 4.44-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.59-to-1 ratio favored advancers.\nThe S&P 500 posted 41 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 45 new highs and 76 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 10.62 billion shares, compared with the 10.19 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123762329,"gmtCreate":1624439755461,"gmtModify":1634006122284,"author":{"id":"3581817256198016","authorId":"3581817256198016","name":"evepek","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581817256198016","authorIdStr":"3581817256198016"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Which will be the third company to do so?","listText":"Which will be the third company to do so?","text":"Which will be the third company to do so?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123762329","repostId":"1177243335","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177243335","pubTimestamp":1624439241,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177243335?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 17:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft reaches a $2 trillion market cap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177243335","media":"cnn","summary":"New York (CNN Business)Microsoft has officially entered the most elite of clubs: corporations with a","content":"<p>New York (CNN Business)Microsoft has officially entered the most elite of clubs: corporations with a market value exceeding $2 trillion.</p>\n<p>The tech giant is only the second publicly traded American company, behind Apple (AAPL), to reach such a valuation. Oil company Saudi Aramco, which went public in 2019, has also previously passed that mark, though its market cap on Tuesday was $1.88 trillion.</p>\n<p>Microsoft's (MSFT) market capitalization topped $2 trillion during trading on Tuesday, and closed just $300 million shy of that mark. Its stock on Tuesday climbed 1.1% to $265.51.</p>\n<p>The company reached the $2 trillion milestone just over two years after it first passed the $1 trillion market cap mark.</p>\n<p>Covid-19 helped get it there. The pandemic meant people were spending more time on their devices, boosting demand for Microsoft's computers, gaming systems and cloud computing platform. And a stock market rally — along with the success of tech companies in particular — lifted its shares.</p>\n<p>Microsoft's stock has gained 64% since March 2020, when pandemic lockdowns began going into effect in the United States.</p>\n<p>In April, Microsoft reported sales were up 19% year-over-year to $41.7 billion for the three months ended March 31.</p>\n<p>\"Over a year into the pandemic, digital adoption curves aren't slowing down,\" CEO Satya Nadella said in a statement at the time. \"We are building the cloud for the next decade, expanding our addressable market and innovating across every layer of the tech stack to help our customers be resilient and transform.\"</p>\n<p>Apple's market value passed $2 trillion last August, and it currently stands at $2.24 trillion. Now, Microsoft has joined its ranks, with two other Big Tech firms, Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOGL GOOGLE), nipping at their heels. Amazon's market cap hit $1.77 trillion on Tuesday, and Google parent Alphabet's reached $1.67 trillion.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft reaches a $2 trillion market cap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft reaches a $2 trillion market cap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 17:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/22/tech/microsoft-2-trillion-market-cap/index.html><strong>cnn</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>New York (CNN Business)Microsoft has officially entered the most elite of clubs: corporations with a market value exceeding $2 trillion.\nThe tech giant is only the second publicly traded American ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/22/tech/microsoft-2-trillion-market-cap/index.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/22/tech/microsoft-2-trillion-market-cap/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177243335","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)Microsoft has officially entered the most elite of clubs: corporations with a market value exceeding $2 trillion.\nThe tech giant is only the second publicly traded American company, behind Apple (AAPL), to reach such a valuation. Oil company Saudi Aramco, which went public in 2019, has also previously passed that mark, though its market cap on Tuesday was $1.88 trillion.\nMicrosoft's (MSFT) market capitalization topped $2 trillion during trading on Tuesday, and closed just $300 million shy of that mark. Its stock on Tuesday climbed 1.1% to $265.51.\nThe company reached the $2 trillion milestone just over two years after it first passed the $1 trillion market cap mark.\nCovid-19 helped get it there. The pandemic meant people were spending more time on their devices, boosting demand for Microsoft's computers, gaming systems and cloud computing platform. And a stock market rally — along with the success of tech companies in particular — lifted its shares.\nMicrosoft's stock has gained 64% since March 2020, when pandemic lockdowns began going into effect in the United States.\nIn April, Microsoft reported sales were up 19% year-over-year to $41.7 billion for the three months ended March 31.\n\"Over a year into the pandemic, digital adoption curves aren't slowing down,\" CEO Satya Nadella said in a statement at the time. \"We are building the cloud for the next decade, expanding our addressable market and innovating across every layer of the tech stack to help our customers be resilient and transform.\"\nApple's market value passed $2 trillion last August, and it currently stands at $2.24 trillion. Now, Microsoft has joined its ranks, with two other Big Tech firms, Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOGL GOOGLE), nipping at their heels. Amazon's market cap hit $1.77 trillion on Tuesday, and Google parent Alphabet's reached $1.67 trillion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129057694,"gmtCreate":1624347224518,"gmtModify":1634007450056,"author":{"id":"3581817256198016","authorId":"3581817256198016","name":"evepek","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581817256198016","authorIdStr":"3581817256198016"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Former Chartered Semiconductor&nbsp;","listText":"Former Chartered Semiconductor&nbsp;","text":"Former Chartered Semiconductor","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129057694","repostId":"2145053984","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145053984","pubTimestamp":1624346760,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2145053984?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 15:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chipmaker GlobalFoundries plans $6 billion expansion in Singapore, U.S., Germany","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145053984","media":"StreetInsider","summary":"SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Chipmaker GlobalFoundries said on Tuesday it will spend $6 billion to expand c","content":"<p>SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Chipmaker GlobalFoundries said on Tuesday it will spend $6 billion to expand capacity at its factories in Singapore, Germany and the United States amid a chip shortage that is hurting automakers and electronics firms globally.</p>\n<p>The U.S.-based company, owned by Abu Dhabi's state-owned fund Mubadala, said it will invest more than $4 billion in Singapore, and $1 billion each in the others over the next two years. The unlisted company's Singapore operations contribute about a third of its revenue.</p>\n<p>\"I think the next five to eight years, we're going to be chasing supply not demand as an industry,\" GlobalFoundries CEO Thomas Caulfield told a media briefing. He added that the company was prioritising automotive customers.</p>\n<p>Tuesday's expansion is in addition to the company's previously announced plan to invest $1.4 billion in 2021 alone to expand its manufacturing capacity.</p>\n<p>The chip shortage, which began in earnest in late December, was caused in part by automakers miscalculating demand for semiconductors in the pandemic. It was aggravated by electronics manufacturers placing more chip orders as work-from-home practices fuelled a surge in sales of computers and other devices.</p>\n<p>Large chipmakers including Intel Corp have warned that the shortage will last well into next year. Intel announced in March a $20 billion plan to expand its advanced chip making capacity, while Taiwan's TSMC said in April it will invest $100 billion over the next three years.</p>\n<p>As well, governments, including those of the United States and Japan, have intervened to urge faster supplies. Earlier this month, the United States approved $54 billion in funds to increase U.S. production and research into semiconductors and telecom equipment.</p>\n<p>Caulfield said funding for GlobalFoundries' expansion plan included investments from governments and pre-payments from customers.</p>\n<p>The $4 billion investment in Singapore is the first of a phased expansion programme planned by the company for the next five to 10 years, the CEO said. He did not specify a total amount.</p>\n<p>The new Singapore fab will add capacity of 450,000 wafers per year, taking the campus's total to 1.5 million, and the company expects to begin production in early 2023. Most of the added production will come online by end 2023.</p>\n<p>The factory will make chips for cars and 5G technology, with long-term customer agreements already in place. It will add about 1,000 jobs in Singapore.</p>","source":"highlight_streetinsider","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chipmaker GlobalFoundries plans $6 billion expansion in Singapore, U.S., Germany</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChipmaker GlobalFoundries plans $6 billion expansion in Singapore, U.S., Germany\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-22 15:26 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18586071><strong>StreetInsider</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Chipmaker GlobalFoundries said on Tuesday it will spend $6 billion to expand capacity at its factories in Singapore, Germany and the United States amid a chip shortage that is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18586071\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18586071","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145053984","content_text":"SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Chipmaker GlobalFoundries said on Tuesday it will spend $6 billion to expand capacity at its factories in Singapore, Germany and the United States amid a chip shortage that is hurting automakers and electronics firms globally.\nThe U.S.-based company, owned by Abu Dhabi's state-owned fund Mubadala, said it will invest more than $4 billion in Singapore, and $1 billion each in the others over the next two years. The unlisted company's Singapore operations contribute about a third of its revenue.\n\"I think the next five to eight years, we're going to be chasing supply not demand as an industry,\" GlobalFoundries CEO Thomas Caulfield told a media briefing. He added that the company was prioritising automotive customers.\nTuesday's expansion is in addition to the company's previously announced plan to invest $1.4 billion in 2021 alone to expand its manufacturing capacity.\nThe chip shortage, which began in earnest in late December, was caused in part by automakers miscalculating demand for semiconductors in the pandemic. It was aggravated by electronics manufacturers placing more chip orders as work-from-home practices fuelled a surge in sales of computers and other devices.\nLarge chipmakers including Intel Corp have warned that the shortage will last well into next year. Intel announced in March a $20 billion plan to expand its advanced chip making capacity, while Taiwan's TSMC said in April it will invest $100 billion over the next three years.\nAs well, governments, including those of the United States and Japan, have intervened to urge faster supplies. Earlier this month, the United States approved $54 billion in funds to increase U.S. production and research into semiconductors and telecom equipment.\nCaulfield said funding for GlobalFoundries' expansion plan included investments from governments and pre-payments from customers.\nThe $4 billion investment in Singapore is the first of a phased expansion programme planned by the company for the next five to 10 years, the CEO said. He did not specify a total amount.\nThe new Singapore fab will add capacity of 450,000 wafers per year, taking the campus's total to 1.5 million, and the company expects to begin production in early 2023. Most of the added production will come online by end 2023.\nThe factory will make chips for cars and 5G technology, with long-term customer agreements already in place. It will add about 1,000 jobs in Singapore.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":246,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167861851,"gmtCreate":1624259502473,"gmtModify":1631884163185,"author":{"id":"3581817256198016","authorId":"3581817256198016","name":"evepek","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581817256198016","authorIdStr":"3581817256198016"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nike of course","listText":"Nike of course","text":"Nike of course","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167861851","repostId":"1154249454","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":211,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164335371,"gmtCreate":1624170767293,"gmtModify":1631884847646,"author":{"id":"3581817256198016","authorId":"3581817256198016","name":"evepek","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581817256198016","authorIdStr":"3581817256198016"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go Boeing go","listText":"Go Boeing go","text":"Go Boeing go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164335371","repostId":"2144086770","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144086770","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1624062134,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2144086770?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-19 08:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Largest Boeing 737 MAX model takes off on maiden flight","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144086770","media":"Reuters","summary":"RENTON, Wash., June 18 (Reuters) - Boeing Co's 737 MAX 10, the largest member of its best-selling si","content":"<p>RENTON, Wash., June 18 (Reuters) - Boeing Co's 737 MAX 10, the largest member of its best-selling single-aisle airplane family, took off on its maiden flight on Friday, in a further step toward recovering from the safety grounding of a smaller model.</p>\n<p>The plane completed a roughly 2-1/2-hour flight over Washington State, returning to Renton Municipal Airport near Seattle at 12:38 p.m.</p>\n<p>The first flight heralds months of testing and safety certification work before the jet is expected to enter service in 2023.</p>\n<p>In an unusual departure from the PR buzz surrounding first flights, the event was kept low-key as Boeing tries to navigate overlapping crises caused by a 20-month grounding in the wake of two crashes and the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>\n<p>Boeing's 230-seat 737-10 is designed to close the gap between its 178-to-220-seat 737-9, and Airbus's 185-to-240-seat A321neo, which dominates the top end of the narrowbody jet market, worth some $3.5 trillion over 20 years.</p>\n<p>However, the market opportunity for the 737 MAX 10 is constrained by the jet's range of about 3,300 nautical miles (6,100 km), which falls short of the A321neo's roughly 4,000 nm.</p>\n<p>Boeing must also complete safety certification of the plane under a tougher regulatory climate following two fatal crashes of a smaller 737 MAX version grounded the model for nearly two years - with a safety ban still in place in China.</p>\n<p>Boeing has carried out design and training changes on the MAX family, which returned to U.S. operations in December.</p>\n<p>Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Stan Deal said the company is producing about 16 737 MAX jets a month at its Renton factory.</p>\n<p>Boeing is working on safety enhancements for the 737 MAX 10, including for its air data indication system and adding a third cockpit indication requested by European regulators of the \"angle of attack,\" a parameter needed to avoid stalling or losing lift. Deal’s comments were provided to the media via a pool reporter inside a Boeing aircraft delivery center.</p>\n<p>\"We're going to take our time on this certification,\" Deal said.</p>\n<p>While the smaller MAX 8 is Boeing's fastest-selling jet, slow sales of the MAX 9 and 10 models have put Boeing at a disadvantage to the A321neo.</p>\n<p>Boeing has abandoned plans to tinker with the 737 MAX 10 design, but is weighing a bolder plan to replace the single-aisle 757, which overlaps with the top end of the MAX family.</p>\n<p>Even so, Boeing says it is confident in the MAX 10, and it is stepping up efforts to sell more of the jet, with key targets, including Ireland's Ryanair .</p>\n<p>Customers include United Airlines with 100 on order. Although sources say United is weighing a new order for at least 100 or even up to 200 MAX, its requirement for large single-aisles will be served by Airbus - reinforcing the market split.</p>\n<p>The flight, watched by dozens of employees but virtually no visitors as Boeing sought to downplay the event, showcased a revamped landing gear system illustrating an industry battle to squeeze as much mileage as possible out of the current generation of single-aisles.</p>\n<p>It raises the landing gear's height during take-off and landing, a design needed to compensate for the MAX 10's extra length and prevent the tail scraping the runway on take-off.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Largest Boeing 737 MAX model takes off on maiden flight</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLargest Boeing 737 MAX model takes off on maiden flight\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-19 08:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>RENTON, Wash., June 18 (Reuters) - Boeing Co's 737 MAX 10, the largest member of its best-selling single-aisle airplane family, took off on its maiden flight on Friday, in a further step toward recovering from the safety grounding of a smaller model.</p>\n<p>The plane completed a roughly 2-1/2-hour flight over Washington State, returning to Renton Municipal Airport near Seattle at 12:38 p.m.</p>\n<p>The first flight heralds months of testing and safety certification work before the jet is expected to enter service in 2023.</p>\n<p>In an unusual departure from the PR buzz surrounding first flights, the event was kept low-key as Boeing tries to navigate overlapping crises caused by a 20-month grounding in the wake of two crashes and the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>\n<p>Boeing's 230-seat 737-10 is designed to close the gap between its 178-to-220-seat 737-9, and Airbus's 185-to-240-seat A321neo, which dominates the top end of the narrowbody jet market, worth some $3.5 trillion over 20 years.</p>\n<p>However, the market opportunity for the 737 MAX 10 is constrained by the jet's range of about 3,300 nautical miles (6,100 km), which falls short of the A321neo's roughly 4,000 nm.</p>\n<p>Boeing must also complete safety certification of the plane under a tougher regulatory climate following two fatal crashes of a smaller 737 MAX version grounded the model for nearly two years - with a safety ban still in place in China.</p>\n<p>Boeing has carried out design and training changes on the MAX family, which returned to U.S. operations in December.</p>\n<p>Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Stan Deal said the company is producing about 16 737 MAX jets a month at its Renton factory.</p>\n<p>Boeing is working on safety enhancements for the 737 MAX 10, including for its air data indication system and adding a third cockpit indication requested by European regulators of the \"angle of attack,\" a parameter needed to avoid stalling or losing lift. Deal’s comments were provided to the media via a pool reporter inside a Boeing aircraft delivery center.</p>\n<p>\"We're going to take our time on this certification,\" Deal said.</p>\n<p>While the smaller MAX 8 is Boeing's fastest-selling jet, slow sales of the MAX 9 and 10 models have put Boeing at a disadvantage to the A321neo.</p>\n<p>Boeing has abandoned plans to tinker with the 737 MAX 10 design, but is weighing a bolder plan to replace the single-aisle 757, which overlaps with the top end of the MAX family.</p>\n<p>Even so, Boeing says it is confident in the MAX 10, and it is stepping up efforts to sell more of the jet, with key targets, including Ireland's Ryanair .</p>\n<p>Customers include United Airlines with 100 on order. Although sources say United is weighing a new order for at least 100 or even up to 200 MAX, its requirement for large single-aisles will be served by Airbus - reinforcing the market split.</p>\n<p>The flight, watched by dozens of employees but virtually no visitors as Boeing sought to downplay the event, showcased a revamped landing gear system illustrating an industry battle to squeeze as much mileage as possible out of the current generation of single-aisles.</p>\n<p>It raises the landing gear's height during take-off and landing, a design needed to compensate for the MAX 10's extra length and prevent the tail scraping the runway on take-off.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144086770","content_text":"RENTON, Wash., June 18 (Reuters) - Boeing Co's 737 MAX 10, the largest member of its best-selling single-aisle airplane family, took off on its maiden flight on Friday, in a further step toward recovering from the safety grounding of a smaller model.\nThe plane completed a roughly 2-1/2-hour flight over Washington State, returning to Renton Municipal Airport near Seattle at 12:38 p.m.\nThe first flight heralds months of testing and safety certification work before the jet is expected to enter service in 2023.\nIn an unusual departure from the PR buzz surrounding first flights, the event was kept low-key as Boeing tries to navigate overlapping crises caused by a 20-month grounding in the wake of two crashes and the COVID-19 pandemic.\nBoeing's 230-seat 737-10 is designed to close the gap between its 178-to-220-seat 737-9, and Airbus's 185-to-240-seat A321neo, which dominates the top end of the narrowbody jet market, worth some $3.5 trillion over 20 years.\nHowever, the market opportunity for the 737 MAX 10 is constrained by the jet's range of about 3,300 nautical miles (6,100 km), which falls short of the A321neo's roughly 4,000 nm.\nBoeing must also complete safety certification of the plane under a tougher regulatory climate following two fatal crashes of a smaller 737 MAX version grounded the model for nearly two years - with a safety ban still in place in China.\nBoeing has carried out design and training changes on the MAX family, which returned to U.S. operations in December.\nBoeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Stan Deal said the company is producing about 16 737 MAX jets a month at its Renton factory.\nBoeing is working on safety enhancements for the 737 MAX 10, including for its air data indication system and adding a third cockpit indication requested by European regulators of the \"angle of attack,\" a parameter needed to avoid stalling or losing lift. Deal’s comments were provided to the media via a pool reporter inside a Boeing aircraft delivery center.\n\"We're going to take our time on this certification,\" Deal said.\nWhile the smaller MAX 8 is Boeing's fastest-selling jet, slow sales of the MAX 9 and 10 models have put Boeing at a disadvantage to the A321neo.\nBoeing has abandoned plans to tinker with the 737 MAX 10 design, but is weighing a bolder plan to replace the single-aisle 757, which overlaps with the top end of the MAX family.\nEven so, Boeing says it is confident in the MAX 10, and it is stepping up efforts to sell more of the jet, with key targets, including Ireland's Ryanair .\nCustomers include United Airlines with 100 on order. Although sources say United is weighing a new order for at least 100 or even up to 200 MAX, its requirement for large single-aisles will be served by Airbus - reinforcing the market split.\nThe flight, watched by dozens of employees but virtually no visitors as Boeing sought to downplay the event, showcased a revamped landing gear system illustrating an industry battle to squeeze as much mileage as possible out of the current generation of single-aisles.\nIt raises the landing gear's height during take-off and landing, a design needed to compensate for the MAX 10's extra length and prevent the tail scraping the runway on take-off.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165326507,"gmtCreate":1624098463309,"gmtModify":1631884324071,"author":{"id":"3581817256198016","authorId":"3581817256198016","name":"evepek","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581817256198016","authorIdStr":"3581817256198016"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope the prediction is correct","listText":"Hope the prediction is correct","text":"Hope the prediction is correct","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165326507","repostId":"1113942445","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166315932,"gmtCreate":1623991557026,"gmtModify":1634024459494,"author":{"id":"3581817256198016","authorId":"3581817256198016","name":"evepek","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581817256198016","authorIdStr":"3581817256198016"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3581636635898281\">@pekss</a>:Vested","listText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3581636635898281\">@pekss</a>:Vested","text":"//@pekss:Vested","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166315932","repostId":"2144742925","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144742925","pubTimestamp":1623976535,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2144742925?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"1 Growth Stock That Could Be Bigger Than Apple","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144742925","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The next decade looks bright for this supercomputing company.","content":"<p>In 1999, <b>NVIDIA</b> (NASDAQ:NVDA) invented the graphics processing unit (GPU), a chip that revolutionized the gaming industry. Then in 2006, it introduced the CUDA programming model, turning GPUs into general-purpose processors. Together, these innovations transformed NVIDIA into a supercomputing company, powering its rise in the data center market.</p>\n<p>NVIDIA hasn't lost that innovative spark, and its pipeline is full of products that could be growth drivers over the coming decade. In fact, if the company executes on its massive market opportunity, I think NVIDIA could be bigger than <b>Apple</b> by 2031. Here are three reasons why.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eaf8802c7ed003335f2860d2fb148e9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\"><span>Image source: Getty Images</span></p>\n<h2>1. The data center</h2>\n<p>Currently, NVIDIA controls over 90%&nbsp;of the data center accelerator market. Over the past 12 months, its data center business generated $7.6 billion in revenue, up 117%. But management sees a much larger market opportunity -- which could generate $100 billion by 2024.</p>\n<p>To that end, NVIDIA recently launched the DGX SuperPOD, a turnkey solution for enterprise artificial intelligence (AI). This cloud-native supercomputer simplifies AI, delivering in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> platform all of the resources (i.e., hardware and software) clients need to build and deploy AI applications.</p>\n<p>Likewise, the Bluefield-3 data processing unit (DPU) is a new chip designed to accelerate and secure data center infrastructure. Specifically, DPUs off-load services like networking, storage, and security, boosting the performance of central processing units (CPU).</p>\n<p>Finally, NVIDIA recently announced the Grace CPU. Set to launch in 2023, this ARM-based processor will accelerate AI workloads by a factor of 10. Moreover, alongside the DPU and GPU, it will make NVIDIA a three-chip company. CEO Jensen Huang believes this vertical integration will be a significant advantage, allowing NVIDIA to \"re-architect the data center to advance AI.\"</p>\n<h2><b>2. Autonomous vehicles</b></h2>\n<p>The NVIDIA DRIVE platform is designed to power autonomous vehicles (AVs). It combines in-car hardware with AI software, allowing vehicles to see, think, and move safely through their environments. In a recent report from advisory firm Navigant Research, NVIDIA DRIVE ranked as the No. 1 AV compute platform on the market.</p>\n<p>The brains behind this system is NVIDIA Orin, a supercomputer that delivers 254 TOPS of performance, meaning it can perform 254 trillion operations per second. By comparison, the latest chip from <b>Intel</b>'s&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MBLY\">Mobileye</a> -- the No. 2 player in Navigant's report -- delivers just 24 TOPS.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d24136b7828e9c57db066423f43bfd7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"525\"><span>The NVIDIA Orin. Image source: NVIDIA.</span></p>\n<p>While NVIDIA Orin won't ship until 2022, automakers like <b>NIO</b> &nbsp;and <b>Volvo</b> have already selected NVIDIA DRIVE to power their autonomous fleets. As a result, NVIDIA is set to recognize $8 billion in automotive revenue over the next six years. But that small figure doesn't scratch the surface of its long-term potential.</p>\n<p>Management believes the AV platform market will reach $25 billion by 2025. Given its competitive edge, NVIDIA could capture the lion's share of that figure. And if that happens, automotive sales could become a third major revenue stream for NVIDIA, supplementing its gaming and data center businesses.</p>\n<h2><b>3. NVIDIA Omniverse</b></h2>\n<p>This summer, NVIDIA will launch Omniverse, a platform that allows clients to build 3D simulations in real time. It connects industry-leading design tools from partners like <b>Autodesk</b> and <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a></b>, enabling collaboration in a shared virtual space. This is a big deal for three reasons.</p>\n<p>First, Omniverse will accelerate AI. NVIDIA DRIVE Sim&nbsp;is an Omniverse-powered application that allows clients to generate synthetic driving data. That data can then be used in the real world to train AI models for autonomous vehicles.</p>\n<p>Second, Omniverse is a subscription product. That's noteworthy because semiconductor sales tend to be cyclical, which can cause lumpy revenue growth. But subscription sales are typically recurring in nature, meaning Omniverse could help NVIDIA grow its top line more consistently.</p>\n<p>Third, NVIDIA believes this is a stepping-stone to the Metaverse. If you're unfamiliar with the term, the idea comes from science fiction. The Metaverse refers to a persistent virtual world, a digital reality where people can interact and share experiences.</p>\n<p>Here's the big picture: The virtual reality market will hit $69 billion by 2028, according to Grand View Research. And so far, NVIDIA Omniverse is gaining traction rapidly. During the three-month beta testing period, it was downloaded by over 17,000 users.</p>\n<h2>A final word</h2>\n<p>To summarize, NVIDIA benefits from a solid competitive position and a massive market opportunity. Both advantages should be growth drivers over the coming decade. But will they be enough to eclipse Apple's current market cap of $2.1 trillion?</p>\n<p>No one knows the future, but I think it's possible. Since fiscal 2016 (ended Jan. 31, 2016), NVIDIA's revenue has grown at 29% per year. If it can maintain an annual growth rate of just 17% over the next decade (assuming its price-to-sales ratio remains unchanged), NVIDIA's market cap would reach $2.2 trillion in 2031.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>1 Growth Stock That Could Be Bigger Than Apple</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n1 Growth Stock That Could Be Bigger Than Apple\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 08:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/17/1-growth-stock-that-could-be-bigger-than-apple/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In 1999, NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) invented the graphics processing unit (GPU), a chip that revolutionized the gaming industry. Then in 2006, it introduced the CUDA programming model, turning GPUs into ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/17/1-growth-stock-that-could-be-bigger-than-apple/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/17/1-growth-stock-that-could-be-bigger-than-apple/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144742925","content_text":"In 1999, NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) invented the graphics processing unit (GPU), a chip that revolutionized the gaming industry. Then in 2006, it introduced the CUDA programming model, turning GPUs into general-purpose processors. Together, these innovations transformed NVIDIA into a supercomputing company, powering its rise in the data center market.\nNVIDIA hasn't lost that innovative spark, and its pipeline is full of products that could be growth drivers over the coming decade. In fact, if the company executes on its massive market opportunity, I think NVIDIA could be bigger than Apple by 2031. Here are three reasons why.\nImage source: Getty Images\n1. The data center\nCurrently, NVIDIA controls over 90% of the data center accelerator market. Over the past 12 months, its data center business generated $7.6 billion in revenue, up 117%. But management sees a much larger market opportunity -- which could generate $100 billion by 2024.\nTo that end, NVIDIA recently launched the DGX SuperPOD, a turnkey solution for enterprise artificial intelligence (AI). This cloud-native supercomputer simplifies AI, delivering in one platform all of the resources (i.e., hardware and software) clients need to build and deploy AI applications.\nLikewise, the Bluefield-3 data processing unit (DPU) is a new chip designed to accelerate and secure data center infrastructure. Specifically, DPUs off-load services like networking, storage, and security, boosting the performance of central processing units (CPU).\nFinally, NVIDIA recently announced the Grace CPU. Set to launch in 2023, this ARM-based processor will accelerate AI workloads by a factor of 10. Moreover, alongside the DPU and GPU, it will make NVIDIA a three-chip company. CEO Jensen Huang believes this vertical integration will be a significant advantage, allowing NVIDIA to \"re-architect the data center to advance AI.\"\n2. Autonomous vehicles\nThe NVIDIA DRIVE platform is designed to power autonomous vehicles (AVs). It combines in-car hardware with AI software, allowing vehicles to see, think, and move safely through their environments. In a recent report from advisory firm Navigant Research, NVIDIA DRIVE ranked as the No. 1 AV compute platform on the market.\nThe brains behind this system is NVIDIA Orin, a supercomputer that delivers 254 TOPS of performance, meaning it can perform 254 trillion operations per second. By comparison, the latest chip from Intel's Mobileye -- the No. 2 player in Navigant's report -- delivers just 24 TOPS.\nThe NVIDIA Orin. Image source: NVIDIA.\nWhile NVIDIA Orin won't ship until 2022, automakers like NIO  and Volvo have already selected NVIDIA DRIVE to power their autonomous fleets. As a result, NVIDIA is set to recognize $8 billion in automotive revenue over the next six years. But that small figure doesn't scratch the surface of its long-term potential.\nManagement believes the AV platform market will reach $25 billion by 2025. Given its competitive edge, NVIDIA could capture the lion's share of that figure. And if that happens, automotive sales could become a third major revenue stream for NVIDIA, supplementing its gaming and data center businesses.\n3. NVIDIA Omniverse\nThis summer, NVIDIA will launch Omniverse, a platform that allows clients to build 3D simulations in real time. It connects industry-leading design tools from partners like Autodesk and Adobe, enabling collaboration in a shared virtual space. This is a big deal for three reasons.\nFirst, Omniverse will accelerate AI. NVIDIA DRIVE Sim is an Omniverse-powered application that allows clients to generate synthetic driving data. That data can then be used in the real world to train AI models for autonomous vehicles.\nSecond, Omniverse is a subscription product. That's noteworthy because semiconductor sales tend to be cyclical, which can cause lumpy revenue growth. But subscription sales are typically recurring in nature, meaning Omniverse could help NVIDIA grow its top line more consistently.\nThird, NVIDIA believes this is a stepping-stone to the Metaverse. If you're unfamiliar with the term, the idea comes from science fiction. The Metaverse refers to a persistent virtual world, a digital reality where people can interact and share experiences.\nHere's the big picture: The virtual reality market will hit $69 billion by 2028, according to Grand View Research. And so far, NVIDIA Omniverse is gaining traction rapidly. During the three-month beta testing period, it was downloaded by over 17,000 users.\nA final word\nTo summarize, NVIDIA benefits from a solid competitive position and a massive market opportunity. Both advantages should be growth drivers over the coming decade. But will they be enough to eclipse Apple's current market cap of $2.1 trillion?\nNo one knows the future, but I think it's possible. Since fiscal 2016 (ended Jan. 31, 2016), NVIDIA's revenue has grown at 29% per year. If it can maintain an annual growth rate of just 17% over the next decade (assuming its price-to-sales ratio remains unchanged), NVIDIA's market cap would reach $2.2 trillion in 2031.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166945544,"gmtCreate":1623989791788,"gmtModify":1634024503240,"author":{"id":"3581817256198016","authorId":"3581817256198016","name":"evepek","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581817256198016","authorIdStr":"3581817256198016"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can hold both","listText":"Can hold both","text":"Can hold both","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166945544","repostId":"1197160756","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197160756","pubTimestamp":1623980251,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197160756?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"1 Big Reason to Dump AMD and Buy NVIDIA","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197160756","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The graphics specialist enjoys a huge advantage over its smaller rival in an important market.","content":"<p><b>NVIDIA</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:NVDA)&nbsp;has been ruling the roost in the discrete graphics processing unit (GPU) market, despite the best efforts of&nbsp;<b>Advanced Micro Devices</b>(NASDAQ:AMD)&nbsp;to gain share in this highly lucrative space. And NVIDIA is showing no signs of losing its grip over the graphics card market, according to the latest market share numbers provided&nbsp;by Jon Peddie Research.</p>\n<p>Let's see why that bodes well for NVIDIA, and makes it a better bet than arch-rival AMD.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94007897775e469423cc8a3d1e55440d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES</span></p>\n<p><b>NVIDIA stamps its authority on graphics cards once again</b></p>\n<p>NVIDIA&nbsp;finished 2020 with&nbsp;82% of the discrete graphics card market under its control, while AMD held the rest. The company's impressive momentum has spilled over into 2021, as it occupied 81% of the market in Q1. That was a nice increase&nbsp;over the year-ago period's market share of 75%.</p>\n<p>AMD, on the other hand, lost market share for yet another quarter. The company has been&nbsp;losing ground&nbsp;to NVIDIA since the latter launched the&nbsp;RTX 30 series cards&nbsp;toward the end of 2020. AMD was in resurgent mode prior to the arrival of the RTX 30 series cards -- its Navi GPUs were&nbsp;making a nice dent&nbsp;in NVIDIA's graphics card supremacy a year ago. But that isn't the case anymore.</p>\n<p><b>NVIDIA stamps its authority on graphics cards once again</b></p>\n<p>NVIDIAfinished 2020 with82% of the discrete graphics card market under its control, while AMD held the rest. The company's impressive momentum has spilled over into 2021, as it occupied 81% of the market in Q1. That was a nice increase&nbsp;over the year-ago period's market share of 75%.</p>\n<p>AMD, on the other hand, lost market share for yet another quarter. The company has been&nbsp;losing ground&nbsp;to NVIDIA since the latter launched theRTX 30 series cardstoward the end of 2020. AMD was in resurgent mode prior to the arrival of the RTX 30 series cards -- its Navi GPUs weremaking a nice dentin NVIDIA's graphics card supremacy a year ago. But that isn't the case anymore.</p>\n<p>Jon Peddie Research estimates that discrete GPU shipments shot up 24.4% year-over-year. The market generated $12.5 billion in revenue in Q1, a 370% spike over the prior-year period, thanks to a&nbsp;jump in the average selling prices&nbsp;(ASPs) triggered by huge demand and short supply. NVIDIA's massive market share means that it has won big from this spike, which is reflected in its Q1 performance.</p>\n<p>NVIDIA's gaming revenue more than doubled&nbsp;year-over-year in the first quarter of fiscal 2022 to $2.76 billion. AMD's computing and graphics segment, which also includes the sales of its Ryzen desktop and notebook processors, grew at a relatively slower pace of 46% year-over-year to $2.1 billion in Q1.</p>\n<p>Jon Peddie Research estimates that the discrete GPU market could be worth $54 billion by 2025, compared to $23.6 billion last year. NVIDIA's dominant position should allow it to corner a substantial portion of that pie in the future, especially considering its moves to strengthen its position.</p>\n<p><b>AMD's resistance may not be enough</b></p>\n<p>AMD has been trying to put up a fight against NVIDIA, and it did show some progress last quarter, registering a quarter-over-quarter market share gain of one percentage point. However, AMD is now looking to raise its game with a new technology, the FidelityFX Super Resolution (FSR). This will compete with NVIDIA's deep learning super sampling (DLSS) image upscaling technology, which helps games look better and run smoother.</p>\n<p>AMD's internal tests claim that its new tech can help games run at 59% higher frame rates on ultra-quality settings. The chipmaker also claims that FSR could increase gaming performance by 2.5 times in certain titles using the performance setting. In addition, AMD says that FSR supports a wide range of hardware that includes more than 100 processors and graphics cards thanks to its open-source nature.</p>\n<p>FSR will launch on June 22, and it could give AMD a nice boost in the GPU market. However, only time will tell if the new technology will translate into sales for AMD, given that its rival's DLSS tech is already in its second&nbsp;generation.</p>\n<p>However, it is worth noting that NVIDIA is trying to cover as much of the GPU market as possible with new launches. The company recently released the RTX 3080 Ti and the RTX 3070 Ti GPUs, priced at $1,199 and $599, respectively. NVIDIA is giving users of older graphics cards a solid reason to upgrade with these cards. It claims that the RTX 3080 Ti is twice as fast as the older GTX 1080 Ti, while the RTX 3070 Ti delivers 1.5x the performance of the RTX 2070 Super.</p>\n<p>NVIDIA is also&nbsp;stepping up its game&nbsp;in the laptop market with the launch of entry-level graphics cards. The company now offers more than 140 laptop models powered by the RTX 30 cards across a wide range of prices. This puts NVIDIA in a solid position in the fast-growing gaming laptop market, which is expected to hit $15.6 billion in revenue by 2027, compared to $9 billion in 2019.</p>\n<p>All of this indicates that NVIDIA's gaming business could sustain its terrific levels of growth for a long time to come, especially considering that a huge chunk of gamers have&nbsp;yet to upgrade&nbsp;to its latest cards.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the growth of AMD's gaming business is nowhere close to NVIDIA's, and the situation is unlikely to change given the latter's supremacy in this space. That's why investors looking to take advantage of the booming market for discrete graphics cards and add a&nbsp;top growth stock&nbsp;to their portfolios should choose NVIDIA. Gaming is its largest source of revenue, and this business could stay red-hot for a long time.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>1 Big Reason to Dump AMD and Buy NVIDIA</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n1 Big Reason to Dump AMD and Buy NVIDIA\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 09:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/17/1-big-reason-to-dump-amd-and-buy-nvidia/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) has been ruling the roost in the discrete graphics processing unit (GPU) market, despite the best efforts of Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD) to gain share in this highly ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/17/1-big-reason-to-dump-amd-and-buy-nvidia/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/17/1-big-reason-to-dump-amd-and-buy-nvidia/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197160756","content_text":"NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) has been ruling the roost in the discrete graphics processing unit (GPU) market, despite the best efforts of Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD) to gain share in this highly lucrative space. And NVIDIA is showing no signs of losing its grip over the graphics card market, according to the latest market share numbers provided by Jon Peddie Research.\nLet's see why that bodes well for NVIDIA, and makes it a better bet than arch-rival AMD.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES\nNVIDIA stamps its authority on graphics cards once again\nNVIDIA finished 2020 with 82% of the discrete graphics card market under its control, while AMD held the rest. The company's impressive momentum has spilled over into 2021, as it occupied 81% of the market in Q1. That was a nice increase over the year-ago period's market share of 75%.\nAMD, on the other hand, lost market share for yet another quarter. The company has been losing ground to NVIDIA since the latter launched the RTX 30 series cards toward the end of 2020. AMD was in resurgent mode prior to the arrival of the RTX 30 series cards -- its Navi GPUs were making a nice dent in NVIDIA's graphics card supremacy a year ago. But that isn't the case anymore.\nNVIDIA stamps its authority on graphics cards once again\nNVIDIAfinished 2020 with82% of the discrete graphics card market under its control, while AMD held the rest. The company's impressive momentum has spilled over into 2021, as it occupied 81% of the market in Q1. That was a nice increase over the year-ago period's market share of 75%.\nAMD, on the other hand, lost market share for yet another quarter. The company has been losing ground to NVIDIA since the latter launched theRTX 30 series cardstoward the end of 2020. AMD was in resurgent mode prior to the arrival of the RTX 30 series cards -- its Navi GPUs weremaking a nice dentin NVIDIA's graphics card supremacy a year ago. But that isn't the case anymore.\nJon Peddie Research estimates that discrete GPU shipments shot up 24.4% year-over-year. The market generated $12.5 billion in revenue in Q1, a 370% spike over the prior-year period, thanks to a jump in the average selling prices (ASPs) triggered by huge demand and short supply. NVIDIA's massive market share means that it has won big from this spike, which is reflected in its Q1 performance.\nNVIDIA's gaming revenue more than doubled year-over-year in the first quarter of fiscal 2022 to $2.76 billion. AMD's computing and graphics segment, which also includes the sales of its Ryzen desktop and notebook processors, grew at a relatively slower pace of 46% year-over-year to $2.1 billion in Q1.\nJon Peddie Research estimates that the discrete GPU market could be worth $54 billion by 2025, compared to $23.6 billion last year. NVIDIA's dominant position should allow it to corner a substantial portion of that pie in the future, especially considering its moves to strengthen its position.\nAMD's resistance may not be enough\nAMD has been trying to put up a fight against NVIDIA, and it did show some progress last quarter, registering a quarter-over-quarter market share gain of one percentage point. However, AMD is now looking to raise its game with a new technology, the FidelityFX Super Resolution (FSR). This will compete with NVIDIA's deep learning super sampling (DLSS) image upscaling technology, which helps games look better and run smoother.\nAMD's internal tests claim that its new tech can help games run at 59% higher frame rates on ultra-quality settings. The chipmaker also claims that FSR could increase gaming performance by 2.5 times in certain titles using the performance setting. In addition, AMD says that FSR supports a wide range of hardware that includes more than 100 processors and graphics cards thanks to its open-source nature.\nFSR will launch on June 22, and it could give AMD a nice boost in the GPU market. However, only time will tell if the new technology will translate into sales for AMD, given that its rival's DLSS tech is already in its second generation.\nHowever, it is worth noting that NVIDIA is trying to cover as much of the GPU market as possible with new launches. The company recently released the RTX 3080 Ti and the RTX 3070 Ti GPUs, priced at $1,199 and $599, respectively. NVIDIA is giving users of older graphics cards a solid reason to upgrade with these cards. It claims that the RTX 3080 Ti is twice as fast as the older GTX 1080 Ti, while the RTX 3070 Ti delivers 1.5x the performance of the RTX 2070 Super.\nNVIDIA is also stepping up its game in the laptop market with the launch of entry-level graphics cards. The company now offers more than 140 laptop models powered by the RTX 30 cards across a wide range of prices. This puts NVIDIA in a solid position in the fast-growing gaming laptop market, which is expected to hit $15.6 billion in revenue by 2027, compared to $9 billion in 2019.\nAll of this indicates that NVIDIA's gaming business could sustain its terrific levels of growth for a long time to come, especially considering that a huge chunk of gamers have yet to upgrade to its latest cards.\nMeanwhile, the growth of AMD's gaming business is nowhere close to NVIDIA's, and the situation is unlikely to change given the latter's supremacy in this space. That's why investors looking to take advantage of the booming market for discrete graphics cards and add a top growth stock to their portfolios should choose NVIDIA. Gaming is its largest source of revenue, and this business could stay red-hot for a long time.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161033389,"gmtCreate":1623895817241,"gmtModify":1634026218945,"author":{"id":"3581817256198016","authorId":"3581817256198016","name":"evepek","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581817256198016","authorIdStr":"3581817256198016"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Vested","listText":"Vested","text":"Vested","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161033389","repostId":"1152604932","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152604932","pubTimestamp":1623895461,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152604932?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 10:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock Forecast For 2025: A Slow Start, Then Strong Growth","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152604932","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is the products company most prepared for the future, whatever that may bring. I give","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple is the products company most prepared for the future, whatever that may bring. I give you nine reasons.</li>\n <li>The dangers to Apple’s long-term prospects are mostly event-based, and mostly out of their control.</li>\n <li>I lay out four scenarios and DCF models. You should treat DCF models with the skepticism they deserve.</li>\n <li>With the exception of the best case, they show the stock trading sideways or down through the end of fiscal 2022, then growing fast thereafter.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d06df668b5536634ebfca099d90d9852\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"988\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>The Long-Term Apple Thesis</b></p>\n<p>I write a lot about Apple (AAPL), 15% of&nbsp;my articles&nbsp;here at Seeking Alpha since I started in 2018. Mostly, I write about what is happening now. For example, the last one was about the&nbsp;implications for Apple&nbsp;should they be forced to back off their App Store rules, whether through courts or regulation.</p>\n<p>Almost a year ago, I began breaking my conclusions about Apple stock into two sections: one for investors who are into Apple for the long haul like I am, and a section for those whose time horizons are much shorter than “I hope to die with these shares.” This article is for the Die With These Shares Crowd.</p>\n<p>I was first an Apple shareholder in 1982, but I sold those shares when Steve Jobs sold his. Since 2005, I have been a continuous shareholder and have never sold a share. Like I said, I hope to die with them. Over the years, the reasons I remain an Apple shareholder have grown:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>They have the most complete and unique tech stack in the world.</li>\n <li>They have the best product development process.</li>\n <li>They have the best corporate organization.</li>\n <li>They are the only megacap who sees privacy and security as a differentiator and marketable feature, not as a cost-center.</li>\n <li>ESG focus years ahead of everyone else.</li>\n <li>The Apple brand</li>\n <li>While the sum of their parts is impressive, the Apple ecosystem makes it so much more.</li>\n <li>When everything is taken into account, iPhone gives a lot of value for the price.</li>\n <li>A cash pile and cash flows to back up their ambitions.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>What it adds up to is a company that is prepared for the future, whatever that may bring. Success in tech is notoriously hard to maintain. IBM (IBM) dominated computers and high end office equipment for 80 years until they didn’t. Sitting here today in 2021, I have a very high level of confidence that this will not be happening to Apple any time soon.</p>\n<p><b>The Tech Stack</b></p>\n<p>One of my favorite factoids about Apple is that despite the fact that their intangible assets would be the most of anyone, they do not list any on their balance sheet. This is where IP and brands go. We’ll get to the brand in a moment, but the core of what makes Apple so durable is their tech stack, now higher and more complete than anyone’s.</p>\n<p>The most important things in the stack are at the base — the Apple chip design unit, which went from nothing to the best in the world in about a decade, and the operating systems, which at their root are all the same thing. They are the only company that designs products and the chips and operating systems that run them, though it looks like Microsoft (MSFT) would like to join them.</p>\n<p><b>Chip Design</b></p>\n<p>Custom chip design is becoming more and more important. Apple was one of the first to recognize the importance of this in making products that are unique in a crowded marketplace. The first iPhone came with a Samsung ARM-based system-on-a-chip (SoC). Less than a year later, Apple bought PA Semi, a low-power SoC designer, for $278 million in cash. Other than the NeXT acquisition that brought back Steve Jobs, this was the best investment Apple ever made.</p>\n<p>The first Apple-designed chip to show up in a product was the A4 in iPhone 4, only two years after the PA Semi acquisition. Quickly, the reaction went from “Apple thinks they can make a SoC?” to “Hey, these things are pretty good.” Now the A-series is widely regarded as the best smartphone SoC.</p>\n<p>The A-series is the most important, but that is only the beginning. There is also the S-series for Apple Watch, H-series for headphones, W-series for wireless connectivity, U-series, which enables AirTags features, and the new M-series for Macs. Within a couple of years, all Apple devices, from AirPods to the Mac Pro will run on Apple Silicon.</p>\n<p>The work they have done here is really showing up in the new M1 Macs, because we have something to compare to — the previous generation of the same model with Intel’s hardware.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c99acb1ab262241f7195d5ef491c64ac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>Annotated Apple video screenshot.</span></p>\n<p>By switching to their own silicon, Apple was able to make the same computer, but with a tablet-sized motherboard, a larger screen, and very low power requirements, while still being much faster than the Intel alternative. Already, the next version of macOS will not support some features on Intel Macs, because they lack the machine learning cores. </p>\n<p><b>The Operating Systems</b></p>\n<p>When Apple was developing iPhone there was two ways to go for the operating system: build up from iPod, or shrink Mac OS X. There was an internal contest along parallel tracks, and the shrunken Mac won out. Because of this decision, all the operating systems are essentially the same thing.</p>\n<p>OS X came from NextStep which was the reason for the NeXT acquisition. Apple had not been able to move past what became known as Mac OS Classic with its own internal project, Copeland, and they needed help. Also, the deal came with Steve Jobs.</p>\n<p>NextStep was the first attempt to take a UNIX operating system and put a friendly graphical user interface on top of it. At the core is a UNIX microkernel. As the name implies, this is a small bit of software that manages the most basic functions of the software/hardware interface. Everything else is built in modular blocks of code layered on each other. Each device gets the blocks it needs, and excludes the ones it doesn’t.</p>\n<p>So at root, the microkernel and the core blocks of the operating systems have a ton of overlap, and are very much the same. The original iPhone OS and OS X were so similar that even before Apple released their official iPhone software development kit, or SDK, developers were already making iPhone apps using a slightly modified Mac SDK.</p>\n<p>A good example is networking. All the devices share the same basic networking software, but macOS has wired connection drivers the others don’t. iOS 14 has 5G drivers the others don’t.</p>\n<p><b>The Rest</b></p>\n<p>On top of that rock-solid foundation sits the rest of it. The list is too long to go through entirely. This is a company that&nbsp;patented a pizza box&nbsp;which is only used in Apple’s&nbsp;Caffe Macs&nbsp;employee cafeterias. But these are the parts where we see continuous development every year.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The location/orientation sensor package. Originally for iPhone, this now includes accelerometers, gyroscopes, GPS, altimeters, and the newest additions, LiDAR and the U1 chip, which makes AirTags possible, with more coming. With this combination, Apple devices know where they are in 3D space, orientation, and where they are relative to other objects, especially ones that also have the U1 chip.</li>\n <li>Voice recognition.</li>\n <li>AR.</li>\n <li>On-device machine learning. This includes continuous work on both hardware and software. The A-series and M-series SoCs come loaded with ML cores.</li>\n <li>Audio/video/photo. Again, both hardware and software.</li>\n <li>Maybe their own 5G radio chip. We’ll see.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>What This All Means For 2025</b></p>\n<p>What this means is that when Apple is setting out to build a new device, they begin halfway to the finish line. The basics are there already, and they get to spend their time and energy focusing on the parts that make each device unique. And as we’ll look at in the next section, they still spend more time sweating that last mile than anyone else.</p>\n<p>Let’s look at Apple’s current Big Idea, which is augmenting or replacing the venerable graphical user interface with a combination of AR and voice control, AKA Siri. Apple just hit a big milestone in that journey with the announcement of on-device voice recognition in iOS 15 coming this fall. This is key to their thinking in whatever they are doing with a car, and also of course in AR/VR products. According to rumors, we should see at least some aspects of both of these by the end of 2025.</p>\n<p>But beyond the AR-voice package, each device will get a chip specifically designed for that device, unlike most others who will be using chips designed for a wide range of OEMs. It will overlap a lot with other Apple SoCs, but it will contain a unique combination of units chosen just for that device. When the software team is working on the operating system and apps, most of the under-the-hood work is done. They get to focus on making the unique interface they want for that product. The sensor package will come into the design of either a car or AR glasses, as will all the rest of it.</p>\n<p><b>Product Development</b></p>\n<p>Apple approaches product development differently than every other company. In the first place, they say “no” to many things, even deep into the development process, most we never get to hear about. This allows them to focus on what they do make, and make their products unique, even when competing a crowded space.</p>\n<p>My favorite example here is a negative one, the&nbsp;ill-fated AirPower charging mat. Apple wanted to make a unique offering that was specifically designed around Apple products, but they could not pull off the dual-coil design without overheating. Instead of releasing an undifferentiated product, they killed it, even though it had been pre-announced. This sort of thing happens internally all the time. We got to see the sausage made, just this once.</p>\n<p>But it goes beyond just saying “no” a lot. Apple approaches almost everything in a very slow, deliberate manner:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Focus entirely on the customer experience.</li>\n <li>Don’t let anyone else get in between you and the customer.</li>\n <li>People often don’t know what they want until you show it to them.</li>\n <li>Don’t compete directly against successful incumbents, but figure out what Apple’s unique contribution is, focused on the entire ecosystem.</li>\n <li>Don’t release a new product or feature until you are ready to, no matter what analysts or the tech press say you should do.</li>\n <li>Find a way to dip your toe into the market first, gauge customer reaction, and slowly keep adding year after year.</li>\n <li>Have relatively few SKUs. Keep the product lines relatively simple.</li>\n <li>Don’t be afraid to ditch old but popular technologies.</li>\n <li>As much as possible, own all the key technologies in your devices.</li>\n <li>Hardware and software development are concurrent and work together.</li>\n <li>Do not worry that a new product is displacing another source of revenue.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Sometimes this can hurt an Apple product relative to competition. The HomePod is a good example here. Because of their relative lack of data collection, Siri will never be as capable as Alexa or Google Assistant. So when designing a “smart speaker,” Apple focused more on the speaker part, because they have handicapped themselves on the smart part. This led to an expensive device that didn’t have as much functionality as competing products. But it sounded great. This is a tradeoff they are willing to make, because security and privacy in the ecosystem is a higher level goal than having a smart speaker.</p>\n<p>But as careful and deliberate as Apple is, they can also act blazingly fast when they think they need to. This letter, recently served up by one of my favorite Twitter accounts,Internal Tech Emails,kind of blew my mind.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b90176b70c1560583646501f52a11f06\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"683\"></p>\n<p>Bertrand Serlet was the SVP of Software Engineering (“SWE” in the email) at the time. Scott Forstall was the lead on iOS. Steve Jobs you know. What you see here is the birth of the App Store, now worth $16 billion a year in net sales to Apple, decided in an email exchange in less than an hour.</p>\n<p>The timeline here is that iPhone was released in June 2007. In September 2007, the first easily installed app store for jailbroken iPhones, Cydia, was released. It was a warning to Apple that they had to release their own App Store, along with developer tools like they had on the Mac, or risk losing control of the device. Too many people looked at this “phone” and saw a pocket computer.</p>\n<p>This email exchange happened less than a month after Cydia. Serlet laid out everything the App Store was and still is in four quick bullets, made a request for a large amount of resources to pull it off (“whoever we need in SWE”), and asked for a yes-or-no decision. Jobs replied less than an hour later with an absurd timeline (it came out in March, but was announced in January), and approved a now-$16 billion a year business in a single sentence.</p>\n<p>Most of the time they move very slowly and deliberately, making sure everything is exactly right before release. But they can also push something out quickly if it is of strategic importance like App Store. This can also fall on its face at launch, like Apple Maps, which is why Apple prefers to move slowly, all else being equal.</p>\n<p><b>Organization</b></p>\n<p>One of the key foundations of Apple’s success is their amorphous org chart which promotes collaboration and prevents turf wars. On paper, there are three key technical function-based Senior VPs below CEO Tim Cook:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>SVP of Software Engineering, Craig Federighi.</li>\n <li>SVP of Hardware Engineering. This is now John Ternus, after longtime SVP of Hardware, Dan Riccio, moved over to shepherd AR/VR devices full time, underlining their importance.</li>\n <li>SVP of Services, Eddie Cue.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This is supplemented by the SVP of Worldwide Marketing position, now filled by Greg Joswiak, after Apple lifer Phil Schiller moved on to semi-retirement as an “Apple Fellow,” whatever that is. The Epic trial made clear that Schiller is very much still involved. Joswiak and Schiller are sort of Ministers-Without-Portfolio, who dip in on all strategic questions, and the guardians of the brand. VP of Environment, Policy and Social Initiatives, Lisa Jackson, has a growing voice in big decisions.</p>\n<p>But as became apparent in a lot of the Apple corporate emails that Epic presented at trial, these people and their main lieutenants are constantly up in each other’s business, and that is by design. The walls between the SVPs are very thin, and no one gets to that position unless they understand that turf wars don’t happen at Apple. But the function-based organization sort of prevents it in the first place.</p>\n<p>When Apple decided to make iPhone, iPod was 35% of Apple’s revenue. But in meetings and email exchanges, there was no SVP of iPod to object loudly that their ox was being gored. There are many companies that would have killed iPhone because of this. Hardware, Software and Services all have big roles in all Apple products, whether it’s iPod, iPhone or anything that has followed. In that email in the previous section, Bertrand Serlet asks for whomever he needs to meet a fast timeline. That means he was pulling people off the Mac OS X team to work on the iPhone SDK and App Store, of course, in concert with Services and Hardware. Phil Schiller also had a lot to say. Again, there was no SVP of Mac to loudly object.</p>\n<p>We now see this collaborative organization and culture expressed as architecture in Apple Park.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51642a2ed19cf03d32baea87ed1d839f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\"><span>Apple Maps screenshot</span></p>\n<p>At a cost of $4-$5 billion, Apple built a new campus entirely designed around the idea of encouraging collaboration across groups, and random encounters between people who normally would not be interacting. The parking lots are to south out of frame of that screenshot, and everyone enters and exits on those footpaths. Along the way, they have to pass by lots of other offices and groups, or go through the center courtyard, a central place to hang out.</p>\n<p>Apple did not build this so people could&nbsp;work from home.</p>\n<p><b>The Ecosystem</b></p>\n<p>Before we talk about the sum of the parts, let’s start with the parts. These are the rankings that Apple product segments would have had in the&nbsp;2021 Fortune 500&nbsp;as stand-alones (by revenue)</p>\n<ul>\n <li>iPhone at $166 billion in TTM net sales would place at number 12, between Costco (COST) and Cigna (CI).</li>\n <li>Services at $60 billion would place 52 between Albertsons (ACI) and Valero (VLO). That’s about a third of all Google’s revenue (number 9), and about 70% of Facebook’s revenue (number 34).</li>\n <li>Wearables, Home, and Accessories at $35 billion would place at 89 between Deere (DE) and Abbott Labs (ABT). Apple is the largest maker of both watches and headphones now. For comparison, Swatch’s (OTCPK:SWGAF) TTM revenues were $6.3 billion.</li>\n <li>Mac at $34 billion would place at 90 between Abbott and Northwestern Mutual. This is about a third of Dell’s (DELL) revenue (number 28).</li>\n <li>iPad's $30 billion would be the only segment outside the Fortune 100 at number 101, between Tesla (TSLA) and Philip Morris (PM).</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Apple consolidated comes in third by revenue behind Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN), but first in profits, 30% higher than number two Microsoft.</p>\n<p>Of course the ecosystem is what feeds this sales machine. Apple Watch is so popular, in part, because of its tie-in to iPhone and the suite of services, especially now with Fitness+. Apple Music as a stand-alone may not have survived without the tie in to all the rest of Apple. I could keep going on, but the success of everything rests on top of everything else.</p>\n<p>The Walled Garden is a metaphor that people have used to describe the Apple family of products and services. Some, like Apple, put the emphasis on the garden. Others, like Epic, put the emphasis on the walls, like the ones in a prison. But whether people stay in the ecosystem because it’s hard to leave, or just because they like it there is a little immaterial until we get to antitrust, which we’ll talk about in a little bit. It’s a bit of both, of course, that make Apple products so sticky.</p>\n<p>The foundation of this is the wide-and-tall tech stack that lets Apple be the only company that makes PCs, tablets, smartphones, smartwatches and headphones, the SoCs that run them, and also every line of code these devices ship with. These devices can seamlessly work with each other in ways the Windows/Android alternative cannot. Another one of these features is coming with the fall OS updates, Universal Control.</p>\n<p>Every year at WWDC, Apple updates the software part of this, and the deep integration of services also gives Apple an advantage over competitors, which has become an antitrust focus, especially for Spotify (SPOT) in Europe.</p>\n<p>But beyond that, the Apple ecosystem is entirely unique</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Microsoft makes PC operating systems and software that sell well, and devices that sell poorly. They have some good consumer services like Xbox gaming, but not many. They are reportedly working on a chip for their Surface products.</li>\n <li>Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) makes a wide range of devices, but not operating systems (unless you count Tizen, now merging with Google's WearOS), or any notable apps or services. They design their own chips, but often use competitors’ in products.</li>\n <li>Google (GOOGL) has a very popular operating system and apps, and is the king of services, but their devices sell poorly. They make data center chips for their own use, but not for consumers.</li>\n <li>Amazon and Facebook (FB) are starting from the bottom-up. Both tried and failed with phones. Amazon has a fork of Android, and low-cost tablets that sell reasonably well. Amazon’s Echo products do well, Facebook’s hardware less so. Both do well with services and apps. The recent Amazon Sidewalk launch with Tile is Amazon trying to build up that ecosystem infrastructure. Amazon has a chip unit for AWS, but neither company has consumer chip design.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Only Apple has the complete package. But there are threats to the ecosystem, and I believe Apple is very likely to have to give up some control, especially with regard to App Store. By 2025 we should expect Apple’s App Store commission rate to drop, but the rest should remain very strong.</p>\n<p><b>Privacy, Security And ESG</b></p>\n<p>I’m lumping these together, because they add up to the same thing: Apple has been able to skate to where the puck is going on important societal issues. They see these things not as costs, but marketable features that burnish the Apple brand.</p>\n<p>I don’t think there’s any reason for me to belabor the security and privacy comparison with Windows and especially Android. Like everyone, Apple does not have a perfect record, and we’ll talk some more in a moment about that.</p>\n<p>But let’s return to that 2007 email, which is like an Apple Rosetta Stone. Serlet's first two bullets are about limits Apple is going to place on developers with the goals of “protect the user,” and “protect the networks.” Only after that does he get to what developers get access to. That’s indicative of all their thinking. Securing the user and networks is the first order priority.</p>\n<p>Here’s a quick list of the security and privacy enhancements they just announced at WWDC:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>iCloud VPN at no extra cost to paid iCloud accounts.</li>\n <li>On-device speech recognition.</li>\n <li>Third party Siri devices that do not give those third parties access to your commands. Common commands will execute without leaving the house.</li>\n <li>Further support for iCloud home security video, which does image analysis on-device, and only uploads encrypted video to the cloud.</li>\n <li>House keys and state ID support in Wallet. TSA will accept digital IDs when it becomes available.</li>\n <li>A new App Privacy Report with details on what all apps are doing with their permissions. Google just announced something very similar for Android 12.</li>\n <li>After grimly reminding us that we will all die someday, iOS 15 allows adding of legacy contact who can access your account after you are gone.</li>\n <li>Securely and privately share health data with a provider.</li>\n <li>Protection from email tracking pixels.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>That was just what they announced this year.</p>\n<p>So let’s turn it around and talk about what these things cost Apple. The biggest costs are not direct ones but opportunity costs from their relative lack of data collection. Their services suffer because of this:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The iAd ad network never got off the ground because it denied advertisers the data they were getting elsewhere.</li>\n <li>Similarly, all their attempts at adding social media features have failed for the same reason.</li>\n <li>Siri lags Alexa and Google Assistant, and this also hurt them in the smart speaker space.</li>\n <li>It is harder for them to build massive centralized AI models like Google and Facebook.</li>\n <li>The engagement and targeting algorithms for App Store, News, Music, TV+, Stocks, Arcade and ads would all be better. Apple has tried to be unique here with added human curation.</li>\n <li>They don’t trade user data like other credit card companies.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Then there are the direct costs, which we have little insight into, but certainly stretches into the billions of dollars. Some of the key parts come under the chip design unit: the Secure Enclave and the machine learning cores. Along with the supporting software these are key units in the A and M series SoCs.</p>\n<p>They currently already do a lot of work in keeping data analysis on-device, leveraging those machine learning cores, and only uploading encrypted data to the cloud using the secure enclave. But the eventual goal I believe is to have all Siri interactions happen on-device, which minimizes what Apple collects about users. As noted, they just took a major step in that direction with on-device voice recognition. To me, that was the single biggest announcement at WWDC. I thought Apple was maybe two years from announcing that.</p>\n<p>When we talk about ESG, the direct Capex costs are growing there. Apple Park is the largest LEED Platinum office building in North America. They are currently working through $4.7 billion in green bonds, building solar, wind and battery storage. Apple currently has all of Apple worldwide corporate operations carbon neutral. But the big, costly project is getting the entire supply chain to carbon neutral. They claim they will do that by 2030.</p>\n<p>In 2021, this is a very effective marketing narrative, and it will only become more so over time. In 2025 these issues will resonate even more deeply.</p>\n<p><b>The Brand</b></p>\n<p>Security, privacy and ESG burnish the brand, but the products are the core of it. Again, Apple does not list intangibles, but&nbsp;Interbrand&nbsp;put the value of the Apple brand at $323 billion in 2020. Amazon was number two at $201 billion. Here’s how Interbrand put it.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Ultimately, Apple’s distinctiveness – or, in fact, uniqueness – isn’t a result of what the brand says, but what it does. It’s Apple’s products, technologies and stores that speak to the organisation’s philosophy of beautiful simplicity and individual empowerment – much more than any campaign could ever do. Inasmuch as many talk about the brand’s aura, Apple has consistently changed what was in people’s minds by changing what was in their hands.\n</blockquote>\n<p>It’s amazing what 25 years of making great products will do. This is important because a strong brand can buoy a company through bad weather. Apple’s brand can weather a long storm.</p>\n<p><b>The iPhone Value Proposition</b></p>\n<p>Apple products are notoriously expensive. But are they? Mac is expensive when you compare to alternatives, but iPhone turns out to be a pretty good value. To begin with, iPhone gets many years of operating system support, in contrast to Android products outside of Google’s poorly-selling Pixel. I have a friend who can afford any phone he wants, but he likes small phones, and hated Jony Ive’s rounded edges. He bought an iPhone SE in March 2016 for $399, and held on to until last December when he traded it in for an iPhone 12 mini. When he traded it in, it was running the current version, iOS 14. If he still owned it, he would be able to upgrade it to iOS 15 in the fall.</p>\n<p>I joke with him that he really extracted maximum value from that iPhone SE, but let’s look at what that looks like for someone in 2021 who is budget conscious. Forgetting about any trade-in subsidies:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>$399 iPhone SE 2nd generation base model</li>\n <li>Paid for with Apple Card. That gets a 3% discount on price, and 24 months of 0% interest.</li>\n <li>Include AppleCare+ for product life to account for an inevitable battery replacement and unforeseeables.</li>\n <li>That’s $19.91 a month for the first 24 months, and $3.29 thereafter.</li>\n <li>Discount future payments by 1.75% a year for inflation.</li>\n <li>Since the phone is already a year old, we’ll shave a year off operating system support, so that’s 6 years.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>For 6 years of worry-free ownership and operating system updates, that’s $599 in 2021 dollars. If you wanted to risk it and not get AppleCare+, it’s only $381 paid over 2 years. This is very comparable to similar offerings from&nbsp;Samsung,OnePlus, and&nbsp;Google. Only Google’s Pixel gets guaranteed OS updates beyond that first year.</p>\n<p>Turning to the flagship models:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a08bc783267a97e370e0a432f3ca6dcf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\"></p>\n<p>Apple has the most expensive flagship but not by much. The Google Pixel 5 seems like a great deal to me, and I remain surprised at how poorly the Pixels have sold. Also, looking at the green bars, the iPhone 12 Pro Max looks like the best deal of the bunch.</p>\n<p>Only the Pixel gets guaranteed updates beyond that first year. Apple is still supporting 5 models released in the Obama administration. But there’s a lot more that comes with iPhone that doesn’t come with any Android phone.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The best smartphone chip.</li>\n <li>Hardware and software developed together.</li>\n <li>Tight integration with PC, tablet, watch and wireless headphones.</li>\n <li>Far better malware security in App Store.</li>\n <li>Most new apps start on iOS, so Apple users get first crack.</li>\n <li>Native productivity suite.</li>\n <li>Native audio and video editing with surprising capability for phone apps.</li>\n <li>No tracking of location and other data by Google unless you use Google services.</li>\n <li>Convenient service and free classes at an Apple Store near you.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Apple users give up a little bit of freedom, mostly in App Store, for all this, but I think it’s a tradeoff everyone understands at this point. As time wears on, it has become harder and harder for other phone manufacturers to keep up with Apple on both price and features. By 2025, it will be even harder.</p>\n<p><b>Risks To The Story</b></p>\n<p>There are three big threats to the rosy picture I am painting. One is geopolitical, one is regulatory, and one is social.</p>\n<p><b>China</b></p>\n<p>US-China relations are at their lowest ebb since Mao hosted Nixon in 1972. The Biden Administration has pulled back from some of the excesses of the previous Administration, but we seem to be on a long march towards, at a minimum, a bifurcation of the technology world. I do not view this as a positive development for many reasons, but it hits Apple hard.</p>\n<p>Apple is pretty unique in the scale of their dependence on China from both the supply side and the demand side. Let’s start on the supply side.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Substantially all of the Company’s manufacturing is performed in whole or in part by outsourcing partners located primarily in Asia. A significant concentration of this manufacturing is currently performed by a small number of outsourcing partners, often in single locations.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n - Apple annual report “Risk Factors”\n</blockquote>\n<p>From the demand side, it fluctuates, but in the current 3-year iPhone supercycle period, Apple is averaging 16.8% of net sales from Greater China, which includes Taiwan and Hong Kong.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f3a5e0338dac745a79fb9839439fa60\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"375\"></p>\n<p><b>Antitrust</b></p>\n<p>I’m not going to dwell on this, since everyone is better acquainted with this threat because of the Epic trial. But there is a movement afoot to refashion antitrust law in a way that would not be favorable to Apple, with the amount of control they like to exercise over the ecosystem. This is in the US courts now, but legislative and regulatory bodies in the US and Europe are turning towards iOS, especially App Store. The threat is not open-ended like it is for Google and Facebook, as it is contained to App Store, 28% of Services net sales and 5.4% of consolidated Apple. But that second number, small as it is, has been growing quickly.</p>\n<p>In contrast to China, I view some sort of reduced take from App Store as inevitable, and the only question is the scale of the reduction. Already, according to Epic trial filings, Apple’s take is probably between 25% and 26% on App Store, not 30% as it is always reported. That is going lower.</p>\n<p>Based on the comments in my articles on the&nbsp;Epic trial, I think Apple shareholders are also underestimating the probability of this happening.</p>\n<p><b>Tall Poppy Syndrome</b></p>\n<p>This is a phrase I just learned from an Australian friend. Wikipedia&nbsp;defines&nbsp;it as</p>\n<blockquote>\n a cultural phenomenon of jealous people holding back or directly attacking those who are perceived to be better than the norm, \"cutting down the tall poppy\".\n</blockquote>\n<p>That’s roughly how my Aussie friend described it to me. People love a comeback story, and that was the Apple narrative for a long time. But Apple is now far too profitable for too long to be the Comeback Kid anymore. Now there seems to be an appetite in the media and society for cutting Apple down to size.</p>\n<p>For example, Washington Post ran an article as I was writing this section that talked about&nbsp;18 scam apps&nbsp;that were in the top 1000 grossing apps on the day Apple was testifying in front of the Senate about App Store.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c268692981ac4739fd7390468e487103\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"137\"><span>Washington Post screenshot</span></p>\n<p>Apple needs to do better. But there is no control group. The article never asks how many scam apps they stopped that day, or how many scam apps were on the Google Play Store or other Android stores that day.Apple claims&nbsp;they stopped $1.5 billion in fraudulent transaction in 2020, 2.4% of all App Store transactions.</p>\n<p>To be clear, the Washington Post article is claiming that Apple is not really curating App Store based on their one-day survey. The total net sales to Apple for these apps was $8.3 million before Apple axed them. Apple is a company that will have around $350 billion in net sales in fiscal 2021, and had something like $16 billion from App Store in calendar 2020. They are not sandbagging their hard-earned reputation over $8.3 million.</p>\n<p>This is sometimes called the “Five Nines Problem.” Five nines is 99.999%, and is sort of the standard for “almost perfect” in a lot of tech. But tech companies like Apple, Google, Facebook, etc. operate at massive scale and they need more nines. App Store has 1.8 million apps, and five nines means 180 malicious apps get through, and maybe 10% of those wind up in the top 1000 grossers. The good news is that Apple does not need the Washington Post to tell them they need to get better at this, but it is not easy.</p>\n<p>This is a more nebulous threat than the others, but the last time I felt like this was when the narrative on Microsoft turned sharply after Windows 95. That ended up in a long battle with the Department of Justice that sucked corporate focus for years.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Stock Price Model: Four Scenarios</b></p>\n<p><i>Many of the assumptions for these models are all based off of my deep dives on Apple quarters after they report. The last of them on 2021 Q2is here.</i></p>\n<p>So let’s take all that qualitative data, and try and stuff it through a revenue and DCF model. I recommend you be very skeptical of all models of the future, and think a lot about the underlying assumptions. Models are generally an expression of the author’s biases with math laid over it. You have the 6,000 words above if you would like to know mine.</p>\n<p>The recent&nbsp;Tesla model from ARK Investment&nbsp;should stand as a cautionary tale for everyone. Anyway, I have posted&nbsp;Excel worksheets&nbsp;to GitHub with the model, and all the major assumptions are modifiable. Each scenario is a separate worksheet.</p>\n<p>Let’s first look at some assumptions common to all four:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>iPhone continues to exhibit a 3-year cyclical pattern. Fiscal 2021 is the high year, so 2024 is the next one.</li>\n <li>Services growth comes off to some extent in all scenarios from reduced App Store growth from legal or regulatory action in the US and Europe.</li>\n <li>Wearables, etc. remains on its strong growth path on Apple Watch, AirPods, and at least one new product category, a VR headset.</li>\n <li>Mac and iPad return roughly to their pre-pandemic patterns. Like all PC makes, Apple saw a&nbsp;big surge&nbsp;from work-from-home.</li>\n <li>Fiscal 2021 is half-reported, so all scenarios assume that it will complete along Apple’s average seasonal pattern from 2016-2019.</li>\n <li>Other assumptions are in the Excel sheets.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Scenarios:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Large, the most optimistic.</li>\n <li>Medium, my base case.</li>\n <li>Small is what Apple looks like if they come off the growth rates of the last 4-6 years.</li>\n <li>Tiny is the same as Small through 2023, and then we’re going to throw some real problems at Apple.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>In Medium:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>We’ll model the iPhone cycle with the average growth rates of the 2015 and 2018 cycles.</li>\n <li>Services growth comes off of 2016-2020 trajectory because of legal or regulatory action on App Store by 2 pp.</li>\n <li>The rest, as above.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Large and Small will, respectively, add and subtract from these growth rates in Medium. In addition, Large assumes:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Boost in fiscal 2022-2025 for iPhone on 5G adoption.</li>\n <li>Apple Silicon Macs gain Apple some PC market share.</li>\n <li>The AR glasses come out in the middle of fiscal 2025. To be clear, I view that as an unlikely timeline, but it does not have a large effect on the model since it comes 6 months from the end of our interval.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Tiny is a special event-based scenario where we will throw the two worst plausible scenarios we can at Apple. It starts with a huge reduction in App Store revenues due to antitrust action in the US and Europe at the end of fiscal 2023, and getting kicked out of China at the end of fiscal 2024. The former will be modeled as a sharp downturn in Services revenue in fiscal 2024. The China expulsion will lead to a 15% drop in top line revenue, and a decrease in products gross margin by 5 pp in 2025. I don’t view either of these as particularly likely, but this is the worst it can get.</p>\n<p><b>Is Apple Stock A Buy Now?</b></p>\n<p><i>Just to double up on the warning: you should treat all models of the future with skepticism, including this one.</i></p>\n<p>This table summarizes the results. Please hit up those Excel sheets if you’d like to frisk the math, or play around with your own assumptions.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f5cc7ac9dba0aa62b43bacac07a51c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"164\"></p>\n<p>As you can see, even Small doesn’t do so badly by 2025, and Tiny ends up almost in the green, since the bad events come towards the end. If they were to come earlier, those growth rates would be lower in Tiny.</p>\n<p>But the year-by-year results get to something I’ve been trying to tell Apple shareholders for almost a year now:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0dd5f3db1dee545821469b11fb4f01d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\"></p>\n<p>That chart will explain to you why I started breaking my Apple recommendations down between long and short term. Since the price hit $130 last summer, it was pretty clear to me that except in a best-case scenario, the gains of fiscal 2021 and 2022 were already baked in.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25ce181f892fdb01ae176c551fa19ec2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\"></p>\n<p>Even Large only shows a marginal gain by the end of the fiscal year 2021, and Medium and Small are flat or down through the end of 2022. I’ve used the phrase, “if your time horizon with Apple is short, now is a good time to take profits,” very frequently in the past 8 months. I still mean it.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Stock Forecast For 2025</b></p>\n<p>Let’s zoom into each a bit, starting with the base case, Medium.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b54f0f55b2d743586b10fdcfb3c4bbd1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"></p>\n<p>I've included actual price growth for fiscal 2020 so you can see how we got here. In this view we can think of slow fair value growth from today to the end of fiscal 2022 as averaging out fiscal 2020. If we look at 2019-2022, that’s a 27% CAGR, much more in line with the growth rates in the out years of the model. The model is simply predicting that 2021 and 2022 are baked into today’s price.</p>\n<p>But then you see that the model really picks up steam on the out-years, as Apple’s free cash flow, growing at a 15% 5-year CAGR in Medium, catches up with the price. All together, that’s a 13.8% CAGR over the four and a third years of the model, with a terminal value of $222.</p>\n<p>Of course Large is larger, with an enhanced iPhone cycle from 5G adoption and a little extra boost from the AR glasses at the end of fiscal 2025.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f1cb197112556270cfdbb2d293c0082\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"></p>\n<p>To be clear, I view this scenario as plausible, but not that likely, somewhere around the 25th percentile. In this scenario, 2022 does not show the flat or negative growth rates in 2022 like the others, and this is due to the 5G adoption part of our assumptions. That’s a 20.2% CAGR, and a terminal value of $283.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25c9feb0f396334a8c46a983c8191e37\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"></p>\n<p>This model starts off very slowly, with only an 11% 2019-2022 CAGR compared to 27% for Medium, and down in 2022. But even the Small scenario picks up steam beginning in 2023. That’s an 18% CAGR from 2023-2025. But over the life of the model it is less than half that, 7.9%, a $184 terminal value.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc10da2578deb47fb83ad5c2497fa16f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"></p>\n<p>Tiny is the same as Small until the events kick in beginning fiscal 2024. 2024 price growth comes way off Small, and takes a dive in 2025. Keep in mind, we are talking about the fair value a year after the event, so the price would likely go down much further first. Anyway, this one winds up roughly at the June 11 close over four years later.</p>\n<p>So there it is: the thing I’ve been telling you for a while now, except with some modeling and pretty charts:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Except in our best case, Apple is likely to trade sideways for a while as cash flows catch up with the share price.</li>\n <li>But absent some very bad events out of Apple’s control, the long term view is still very, very bright, even if they slow down.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Seven thousand words summed up in two bullets.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock Forecast For 2025: A Slow Start, Then Strong Growth</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock Forecast For 2025: A Slow Start, Then Strong Growth\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-17 10:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435098-apple-stock-forecast-2025><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple is the products company most prepared for the future, whatever that may bring. I give you nine reasons.\nThe dangers to Apple’s long-term prospects are mostly event-based, and mostly out...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435098-apple-stock-forecast-2025\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435098-apple-stock-forecast-2025","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152604932","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is the products company most prepared for the future, whatever that may bring. I give you nine reasons.\nThe dangers to Apple’s long-term prospects are mostly event-based, and mostly out of their control.\nI lay out four scenarios and DCF models. You should treat DCF models with the skepticism they deserve.\nWith the exception of the best case, they show the stock trading sideways or down through the end of fiscal 2022, then growing fast thereafter.\n\nNikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Long-Term Apple Thesis\nI write a lot about Apple (AAPL), 15% of my articles here at Seeking Alpha since I started in 2018. Mostly, I write about what is happening now. For example, the last one was about the implications for Apple should they be forced to back off their App Store rules, whether through courts or regulation.\nAlmost a year ago, I began breaking my conclusions about Apple stock into two sections: one for investors who are into Apple for the long haul like I am, and a section for those whose time horizons are much shorter than “I hope to die with these shares.” This article is for the Die With These Shares Crowd.\nI was first an Apple shareholder in 1982, but I sold those shares when Steve Jobs sold his. Since 2005, I have been a continuous shareholder and have never sold a share. Like I said, I hope to die with them. Over the years, the reasons I remain an Apple shareholder have grown:\n\nThey have the most complete and unique tech stack in the world.\nThey have the best product development process.\nThey have the best corporate organization.\nThey are the only megacap who sees privacy and security as a differentiator and marketable feature, not as a cost-center.\nESG focus years ahead of everyone else.\nThe Apple brand\nWhile the sum of their parts is impressive, the Apple ecosystem makes it so much more.\nWhen everything is taken into account, iPhone gives a lot of value for the price.\nA cash pile and cash flows to back up their ambitions.\n\nWhat it adds up to is a company that is prepared for the future, whatever that may bring. Success in tech is notoriously hard to maintain. IBM (IBM) dominated computers and high end office equipment for 80 years until they didn’t. Sitting here today in 2021, I have a very high level of confidence that this will not be happening to Apple any time soon.\nThe Tech Stack\nOne of my favorite factoids about Apple is that despite the fact that their intangible assets would be the most of anyone, they do not list any on their balance sheet. This is where IP and brands go. We’ll get to the brand in a moment, but the core of what makes Apple so durable is their tech stack, now higher and more complete than anyone’s.\nThe most important things in the stack are at the base — the Apple chip design unit, which went from nothing to the best in the world in about a decade, and the operating systems, which at their root are all the same thing. They are the only company that designs products and the chips and operating systems that run them, though it looks like Microsoft (MSFT) would like to join them.\nChip Design\nCustom chip design is becoming more and more important. Apple was one of the first to recognize the importance of this in making products that are unique in a crowded marketplace. The first iPhone came with a Samsung ARM-based system-on-a-chip (SoC). Less than a year later, Apple bought PA Semi, a low-power SoC designer, for $278 million in cash. Other than the NeXT acquisition that brought back Steve Jobs, this was the best investment Apple ever made.\nThe first Apple-designed chip to show up in a product was the A4 in iPhone 4, only two years after the PA Semi acquisition. Quickly, the reaction went from “Apple thinks they can make a SoC?” to “Hey, these things are pretty good.” Now the A-series is widely regarded as the best smartphone SoC.\nThe A-series is the most important, but that is only the beginning. There is also the S-series for Apple Watch, H-series for headphones, W-series for wireless connectivity, U-series, which enables AirTags features, and the new M-series for Macs. Within a couple of years, all Apple devices, from AirPods to the Mac Pro will run on Apple Silicon.\nThe work they have done here is really showing up in the new M1 Macs, because we have something to compare to — the previous generation of the same model with Intel’s hardware.\nAnnotated Apple video screenshot.\nBy switching to their own silicon, Apple was able to make the same computer, but with a tablet-sized motherboard, a larger screen, and very low power requirements, while still being much faster than the Intel alternative. Already, the next version of macOS will not support some features on Intel Macs, because they lack the machine learning cores. \nThe Operating Systems\nWhen Apple was developing iPhone there was two ways to go for the operating system: build up from iPod, or shrink Mac OS X. There was an internal contest along parallel tracks, and the shrunken Mac won out. Because of this decision, all the operating systems are essentially the same thing.\nOS X came from NextStep which was the reason for the NeXT acquisition. Apple had not been able to move past what became known as Mac OS Classic with its own internal project, Copeland, and they needed help. Also, the deal came with Steve Jobs.\nNextStep was the first attempt to take a UNIX operating system and put a friendly graphical user interface on top of it. At the core is a UNIX microkernel. As the name implies, this is a small bit of software that manages the most basic functions of the software/hardware interface. Everything else is built in modular blocks of code layered on each other. Each device gets the blocks it needs, and excludes the ones it doesn’t.\nSo at root, the microkernel and the core blocks of the operating systems have a ton of overlap, and are very much the same. The original iPhone OS and OS X were so similar that even before Apple released their official iPhone software development kit, or SDK, developers were already making iPhone apps using a slightly modified Mac SDK.\nA good example is networking. All the devices share the same basic networking software, but macOS has wired connection drivers the others don’t. iOS 14 has 5G drivers the others don’t.\nThe Rest\nOn top of that rock-solid foundation sits the rest of it. The list is too long to go through entirely. This is a company that patented a pizza box which is only used in Apple’s Caffe Macs employee cafeterias. But these are the parts where we see continuous development every year.\n\nThe location/orientation sensor package. Originally for iPhone, this now includes accelerometers, gyroscopes, GPS, altimeters, and the newest additions, LiDAR and the U1 chip, which makes AirTags possible, with more coming. With this combination, Apple devices know where they are in 3D space, orientation, and where they are relative to other objects, especially ones that also have the U1 chip.\nVoice recognition.\nAR.\nOn-device machine learning. This includes continuous work on both hardware and software. The A-series and M-series SoCs come loaded with ML cores.\nAudio/video/photo. Again, both hardware and software.\nMaybe their own 5G radio chip. We’ll see.\n\nWhat This All Means For 2025\nWhat this means is that when Apple is setting out to build a new device, they begin halfway to the finish line. The basics are there already, and they get to spend their time and energy focusing on the parts that make each device unique. And as we’ll look at in the next section, they still spend more time sweating that last mile than anyone else.\nLet’s look at Apple’s current Big Idea, which is augmenting or replacing the venerable graphical user interface with a combination of AR and voice control, AKA Siri. Apple just hit a big milestone in that journey with the announcement of on-device voice recognition in iOS 15 coming this fall. This is key to their thinking in whatever they are doing with a car, and also of course in AR/VR products. According to rumors, we should see at least some aspects of both of these by the end of 2025.\nBut beyond the AR-voice package, each device will get a chip specifically designed for that device, unlike most others who will be using chips designed for a wide range of OEMs. It will overlap a lot with other Apple SoCs, but it will contain a unique combination of units chosen just for that device. When the software team is working on the operating system and apps, most of the under-the-hood work is done. They get to focus on making the unique interface they want for that product. The sensor package will come into the design of either a car or AR glasses, as will all the rest of it.\nProduct Development\nApple approaches product development differently than every other company. In the first place, they say “no” to many things, even deep into the development process, most we never get to hear about. This allows them to focus on what they do make, and make their products unique, even when competing a crowded space.\nMy favorite example here is a negative one, the ill-fated AirPower charging mat. Apple wanted to make a unique offering that was specifically designed around Apple products, but they could not pull off the dual-coil design without overheating. Instead of releasing an undifferentiated product, they killed it, even though it had been pre-announced. This sort of thing happens internally all the time. We got to see the sausage made, just this once.\nBut it goes beyond just saying “no” a lot. Apple approaches almost everything in a very slow, deliberate manner:\n\nFocus entirely on the customer experience.\nDon’t let anyone else get in between you and the customer.\nPeople often don’t know what they want until you show it to them.\nDon’t compete directly against successful incumbents, but figure out what Apple’s unique contribution is, focused on the entire ecosystem.\nDon’t release a new product or feature until you are ready to, no matter what analysts or the tech press say you should do.\nFind a way to dip your toe into the market first, gauge customer reaction, and slowly keep adding year after year.\nHave relatively few SKUs. Keep the product lines relatively simple.\nDon’t be afraid to ditch old but popular technologies.\nAs much as possible, own all the key technologies in your devices.\nHardware and software development are concurrent and work together.\nDo not worry that a new product is displacing another source of revenue.\n\nSometimes this can hurt an Apple product relative to competition. The HomePod is a good example here. Because of their relative lack of data collection, Siri will never be as capable as Alexa or Google Assistant. So when designing a “smart speaker,” Apple focused more on the speaker part, because they have handicapped themselves on the smart part. This led to an expensive device that didn’t have as much functionality as competing products. But it sounded great. This is a tradeoff they are willing to make, because security and privacy in the ecosystem is a higher level goal than having a smart speaker.\nBut as careful and deliberate as Apple is, they can also act blazingly fast when they think they need to. This letter, recently served up by one of my favorite Twitter accounts,Internal Tech Emails,kind of blew my mind.\n\nBertrand Serlet was the SVP of Software Engineering (“SWE” in the email) at the time. Scott Forstall was the lead on iOS. Steve Jobs you know. What you see here is the birth of the App Store, now worth $16 billion a year in net sales to Apple, decided in an email exchange in less than an hour.\nThe timeline here is that iPhone was released in June 2007. In September 2007, the first easily installed app store for jailbroken iPhones, Cydia, was released. It was a warning to Apple that they had to release their own App Store, along with developer tools like they had on the Mac, or risk losing control of the device. Too many people looked at this “phone” and saw a pocket computer.\nThis email exchange happened less than a month after Cydia. Serlet laid out everything the App Store was and still is in four quick bullets, made a request for a large amount of resources to pull it off (“whoever we need in SWE”), and asked for a yes-or-no decision. Jobs replied less than an hour later with an absurd timeline (it came out in March, but was announced in January), and approved a now-$16 billion a year business in a single sentence.\nMost of the time they move very slowly and deliberately, making sure everything is exactly right before release. But they can also push something out quickly if it is of strategic importance like App Store. This can also fall on its face at launch, like Apple Maps, which is why Apple prefers to move slowly, all else being equal.\nOrganization\nOne of the key foundations of Apple’s success is their amorphous org chart which promotes collaboration and prevents turf wars. On paper, there are three key technical function-based Senior VPs below CEO Tim Cook:\n\nSVP of Software Engineering, Craig Federighi.\nSVP of Hardware Engineering. This is now John Ternus, after longtime SVP of Hardware, Dan Riccio, moved over to shepherd AR/VR devices full time, underlining their importance.\nSVP of Services, Eddie Cue.\n\nThis is supplemented by the SVP of Worldwide Marketing position, now filled by Greg Joswiak, after Apple lifer Phil Schiller moved on to semi-retirement as an “Apple Fellow,” whatever that is. The Epic trial made clear that Schiller is very much still involved. Joswiak and Schiller are sort of Ministers-Without-Portfolio, who dip in on all strategic questions, and the guardians of the brand. VP of Environment, Policy and Social Initiatives, Lisa Jackson, has a growing voice in big decisions.\nBut as became apparent in a lot of the Apple corporate emails that Epic presented at trial, these people and their main lieutenants are constantly up in each other’s business, and that is by design. The walls between the SVPs are very thin, and no one gets to that position unless they understand that turf wars don’t happen at Apple. But the function-based organization sort of prevents it in the first place.\nWhen Apple decided to make iPhone, iPod was 35% of Apple’s revenue. But in meetings and email exchanges, there was no SVP of iPod to object loudly that their ox was being gored. There are many companies that would have killed iPhone because of this. Hardware, Software and Services all have big roles in all Apple products, whether it’s iPod, iPhone or anything that has followed. In that email in the previous section, Bertrand Serlet asks for whomever he needs to meet a fast timeline. That means he was pulling people off the Mac OS X team to work on the iPhone SDK and App Store, of course, in concert with Services and Hardware. Phil Schiller also had a lot to say. Again, there was no SVP of Mac to loudly object.\nWe now see this collaborative organization and culture expressed as architecture in Apple Park.\nApple Maps screenshot\nAt a cost of $4-$5 billion, Apple built a new campus entirely designed around the idea of encouraging collaboration across groups, and random encounters between people who normally would not be interacting. The parking lots are to south out of frame of that screenshot, and everyone enters and exits on those footpaths. Along the way, they have to pass by lots of other offices and groups, or go through the center courtyard, a central place to hang out.\nApple did not build this so people could work from home.\nThe Ecosystem\nBefore we talk about the sum of the parts, let’s start with the parts. These are the rankings that Apple product segments would have had in the 2021 Fortune 500 as stand-alones (by revenue)\n\niPhone at $166 billion in TTM net sales would place at number 12, between Costco (COST) and Cigna (CI).\nServices at $60 billion would place 52 between Albertsons (ACI) and Valero (VLO). That’s about a third of all Google’s revenue (number 9), and about 70% of Facebook’s revenue (number 34).\nWearables, Home, and Accessories at $35 billion would place at 89 between Deere (DE) and Abbott Labs (ABT). Apple is the largest maker of both watches and headphones now. For comparison, Swatch’s (OTCPK:SWGAF) TTM revenues were $6.3 billion.\nMac at $34 billion would place at 90 between Abbott and Northwestern Mutual. This is about a third of Dell’s (DELL) revenue (number 28).\niPad's $30 billion would be the only segment outside the Fortune 100 at number 101, between Tesla (TSLA) and Philip Morris (PM).\n\nApple consolidated comes in third by revenue behind Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN), but first in profits, 30% higher than number two Microsoft.\nOf course the ecosystem is what feeds this sales machine. Apple Watch is so popular, in part, because of its tie-in to iPhone and the suite of services, especially now with Fitness+. Apple Music as a stand-alone may not have survived without the tie in to all the rest of Apple. I could keep going on, but the success of everything rests on top of everything else.\nThe Walled Garden is a metaphor that people have used to describe the Apple family of products and services. Some, like Apple, put the emphasis on the garden. Others, like Epic, put the emphasis on the walls, like the ones in a prison. But whether people stay in the ecosystem because it’s hard to leave, or just because they like it there is a little immaterial until we get to antitrust, which we’ll talk about in a little bit. It’s a bit of both, of course, that make Apple products so sticky.\nThe foundation of this is the wide-and-tall tech stack that lets Apple be the only company that makes PCs, tablets, smartphones, smartwatches and headphones, the SoCs that run them, and also every line of code these devices ship with. These devices can seamlessly work with each other in ways the Windows/Android alternative cannot. Another one of these features is coming with the fall OS updates, Universal Control.\nEvery year at WWDC, Apple updates the software part of this, and the deep integration of services also gives Apple an advantage over competitors, which has become an antitrust focus, especially for Spotify (SPOT) in Europe.\nBut beyond that, the Apple ecosystem is entirely unique\n\nMicrosoft makes PC operating systems and software that sell well, and devices that sell poorly. They have some good consumer services like Xbox gaming, but not many. They are reportedly working on a chip for their Surface products.\nSamsung (OTC:SSNLF) makes a wide range of devices, but not operating systems (unless you count Tizen, now merging with Google's WearOS), or any notable apps or services. They design their own chips, but often use competitors’ in products.\nGoogle (GOOGL) has a very popular operating system and apps, and is the king of services, but their devices sell poorly. They make data center chips for their own use, but not for consumers.\nAmazon and Facebook (FB) are starting from the bottom-up. Both tried and failed with phones. Amazon has a fork of Android, and low-cost tablets that sell reasonably well. Amazon’s Echo products do well, Facebook’s hardware less so. Both do well with services and apps. The recent Amazon Sidewalk launch with Tile is Amazon trying to build up that ecosystem infrastructure. Amazon has a chip unit for AWS, but neither company has consumer chip design.\n\nOnly Apple has the complete package. But there are threats to the ecosystem, and I believe Apple is very likely to have to give up some control, especially with regard to App Store. By 2025 we should expect Apple’s App Store commission rate to drop, but the rest should remain very strong.\nPrivacy, Security And ESG\nI’m lumping these together, because they add up to the same thing: Apple has been able to skate to where the puck is going on important societal issues. They see these things not as costs, but marketable features that burnish the Apple brand.\nI don’t think there’s any reason for me to belabor the security and privacy comparison with Windows and especially Android. Like everyone, Apple does not have a perfect record, and we’ll talk some more in a moment about that.\nBut let’s return to that 2007 email, which is like an Apple Rosetta Stone. Serlet's first two bullets are about limits Apple is going to place on developers with the goals of “protect the user,” and “protect the networks.” Only after that does he get to what developers get access to. That’s indicative of all their thinking. Securing the user and networks is the first order priority.\nHere’s a quick list of the security and privacy enhancements they just announced at WWDC:\n\niCloud VPN at no extra cost to paid iCloud accounts.\nOn-device speech recognition.\nThird party Siri devices that do not give those third parties access to your commands. Common commands will execute without leaving the house.\nFurther support for iCloud home security video, which does image analysis on-device, and only uploads encrypted video to the cloud.\nHouse keys and state ID support in Wallet. TSA will accept digital IDs when it becomes available.\nA new App Privacy Report with details on what all apps are doing with their permissions. Google just announced something very similar for Android 12.\nAfter grimly reminding us that we will all die someday, iOS 15 allows adding of legacy contact who can access your account after you are gone.\nSecurely and privately share health data with a provider.\nProtection from email tracking pixels.\n\nThat was just what they announced this year.\nSo let’s turn it around and talk about what these things cost Apple. The biggest costs are not direct ones but opportunity costs from their relative lack of data collection. Their services suffer because of this:\n\nThe iAd ad network never got off the ground because it denied advertisers the data they were getting elsewhere.\nSimilarly, all their attempts at adding social media features have failed for the same reason.\nSiri lags Alexa and Google Assistant, and this also hurt them in the smart speaker space.\nIt is harder for them to build massive centralized AI models like Google and Facebook.\nThe engagement and targeting algorithms for App Store, News, Music, TV+, Stocks, Arcade and ads would all be better. Apple has tried to be unique here with added human curation.\nThey don’t trade user data like other credit card companies.\n\nThen there are the direct costs, which we have little insight into, but certainly stretches into the billions of dollars. Some of the key parts come under the chip design unit: the Secure Enclave and the machine learning cores. Along with the supporting software these are key units in the A and M series SoCs.\nThey currently already do a lot of work in keeping data analysis on-device, leveraging those machine learning cores, and only uploading encrypted data to the cloud using the secure enclave. But the eventual goal I believe is to have all Siri interactions happen on-device, which minimizes what Apple collects about users. As noted, they just took a major step in that direction with on-device voice recognition. To me, that was the single biggest announcement at WWDC. I thought Apple was maybe two years from announcing that.\nWhen we talk about ESG, the direct Capex costs are growing there. Apple Park is the largest LEED Platinum office building in North America. They are currently working through $4.7 billion in green bonds, building solar, wind and battery storage. Apple currently has all of Apple worldwide corporate operations carbon neutral. But the big, costly project is getting the entire supply chain to carbon neutral. They claim they will do that by 2030.\nIn 2021, this is a very effective marketing narrative, and it will only become more so over time. In 2025 these issues will resonate even more deeply.\nThe Brand\nSecurity, privacy and ESG burnish the brand, but the products are the core of it. Again, Apple does not list intangibles, but Interbrand put the value of the Apple brand at $323 billion in 2020. Amazon was number two at $201 billion. Here’s how Interbrand put it.\n\n Ultimately, Apple’s distinctiveness – or, in fact, uniqueness – isn’t a result of what the brand says, but what it does. It’s Apple’s products, technologies and stores that speak to the organisation’s philosophy of beautiful simplicity and individual empowerment – much more than any campaign could ever do. Inasmuch as many talk about the brand’s aura, Apple has consistently changed what was in people’s minds by changing what was in their hands.\n\nIt’s amazing what 25 years of making great products will do. This is important because a strong brand can buoy a company through bad weather. Apple’s brand can weather a long storm.\nThe iPhone Value Proposition\nApple products are notoriously expensive. But are they? Mac is expensive when you compare to alternatives, but iPhone turns out to be a pretty good value. To begin with, iPhone gets many years of operating system support, in contrast to Android products outside of Google’s poorly-selling Pixel. I have a friend who can afford any phone he wants, but he likes small phones, and hated Jony Ive’s rounded edges. He bought an iPhone SE in March 2016 for $399, and held on to until last December when he traded it in for an iPhone 12 mini. When he traded it in, it was running the current version, iOS 14. If he still owned it, he would be able to upgrade it to iOS 15 in the fall.\nI joke with him that he really extracted maximum value from that iPhone SE, but let’s look at what that looks like for someone in 2021 who is budget conscious. Forgetting about any trade-in subsidies:\n\n$399 iPhone SE 2nd generation base model\nPaid for with Apple Card. That gets a 3% discount on price, and 24 months of 0% interest.\nInclude AppleCare+ for product life to account for an inevitable battery replacement and unforeseeables.\nThat’s $19.91 a month for the first 24 months, and $3.29 thereafter.\nDiscount future payments by 1.75% a year for inflation.\nSince the phone is already a year old, we’ll shave a year off operating system support, so that’s 6 years.\n\nFor 6 years of worry-free ownership and operating system updates, that’s $599 in 2021 dollars. If you wanted to risk it and not get AppleCare+, it’s only $381 paid over 2 years. This is very comparable to similar offerings from Samsung,OnePlus, and Google. Only Google’s Pixel gets guaranteed OS updates beyond that first year.\nTurning to the flagship models:\n\nApple has the most expensive flagship but not by much. The Google Pixel 5 seems like a great deal to me, and I remain surprised at how poorly the Pixels have sold. Also, looking at the green bars, the iPhone 12 Pro Max looks like the best deal of the bunch.\nOnly the Pixel gets guaranteed updates beyond that first year. Apple is still supporting 5 models released in the Obama administration. But there’s a lot more that comes with iPhone that doesn’t come with any Android phone.\n\nThe best smartphone chip.\nHardware and software developed together.\nTight integration with PC, tablet, watch and wireless headphones.\nFar better malware security in App Store.\nMost new apps start on iOS, so Apple users get first crack.\nNative productivity suite.\nNative audio and video editing with surprising capability for phone apps.\nNo tracking of location and other data by Google unless you use Google services.\nConvenient service and free classes at an Apple Store near you.\n\nApple users give up a little bit of freedom, mostly in App Store, for all this, but I think it’s a tradeoff everyone understands at this point. As time wears on, it has become harder and harder for other phone manufacturers to keep up with Apple on both price and features. By 2025, it will be even harder.\nRisks To The Story\nThere are three big threats to the rosy picture I am painting. One is geopolitical, one is regulatory, and one is social.\nChina\nUS-China relations are at their lowest ebb since Mao hosted Nixon in 1972. The Biden Administration has pulled back from some of the excesses of the previous Administration, but we seem to be on a long march towards, at a minimum, a bifurcation of the technology world. I do not view this as a positive development for many reasons, but it hits Apple hard.\nApple is pretty unique in the scale of their dependence on China from both the supply side and the demand side. Let’s start on the supply side.\n\n Substantially all of the Company’s manufacturing is performed in whole or in part by outsourcing partners located primarily in Asia. A significant concentration of this manufacturing is currently performed by a small number of outsourcing partners, often in single locations.\n\n\n - Apple annual report “Risk Factors”\n\nFrom the demand side, it fluctuates, but in the current 3-year iPhone supercycle period, Apple is averaging 16.8% of net sales from Greater China, which includes Taiwan and Hong Kong.\n\nAntitrust\nI’m not going to dwell on this, since everyone is better acquainted with this threat because of the Epic trial. But there is a movement afoot to refashion antitrust law in a way that would not be favorable to Apple, with the amount of control they like to exercise over the ecosystem. This is in the US courts now, but legislative and regulatory bodies in the US and Europe are turning towards iOS, especially App Store. The threat is not open-ended like it is for Google and Facebook, as it is contained to App Store, 28% of Services net sales and 5.4% of consolidated Apple. But that second number, small as it is, has been growing quickly.\nIn contrast to China, I view some sort of reduced take from App Store as inevitable, and the only question is the scale of the reduction. Already, according to Epic trial filings, Apple’s take is probably between 25% and 26% on App Store, not 30% as it is always reported. That is going lower.\nBased on the comments in my articles on the Epic trial, I think Apple shareholders are also underestimating the probability of this happening.\nTall Poppy Syndrome\nThis is a phrase I just learned from an Australian friend. Wikipedia defines it as\n\n a cultural phenomenon of jealous people holding back or directly attacking those who are perceived to be better than the norm, \"cutting down the tall poppy\".\n\nThat’s roughly how my Aussie friend described it to me. People love a comeback story, and that was the Apple narrative for a long time. But Apple is now far too profitable for too long to be the Comeback Kid anymore. Now there seems to be an appetite in the media and society for cutting Apple down to size.\nFor example, Washington Post ran an article as I was writing this section that talked about 18 scam apps that were in the top 1000 grossing apps on the day Apple was testifying in front of the Senate about App Store.\nWashington Post screenshot\nApple needs to do better. But there is no control group. The article never asks how many scam apps they stopped that day, or how many scam apps were on the Google Play Store or other Android stores that day.Apple claims they stopped $1.5 billion in fraudulent transaction in 2020, 2.4% of all App Store transactions.\nTo be clear, the Washington Post article is claiming that Apple is not really curating App Store based on their one-day survey. The total net sales to Apple for these apps was $8.3 million before Apple axed them. Apple is a company that will have around $350 billion in net sales in fiscal 2021, and had something like $16 billion from App Store in calendar 2020. They are not sandbagging their hard-earned reputation over $8.3 million.\nThis is sometimes called the “Five Nines Problem.” Five nines is 99.999%, and is sort of the standard for “almost perfect” in a lot of tech. But tech companies like Apple, Google, Facebook, etc. operate at massive scale and they need more nines. App Store has 1.8 million apps, and five nines means 180 malicious apps get through, and maybe 10% of those wind up in the top 1000 grossers. The good news is that Apple does not need the Washington Post to tell them they need to get better at this, but it is not easy.\nThis is a more nebulous threat than the others, but the last time I felt like this was when the narrative on Microsoft turned sharply after Windows 95. That ended up in a long battle with the Department of Justice that sucked corporate focus for years.\nApple Stock Price Model: Four Scenarios\nMany of the assumptions for these models are all based off of my deep dives on Apple quarters after they report. The last of them on 2021 Q2is here.\nSo let’s take all that qualitative data, and try and stuff it through a revenue and DCF model. I recommend you be very skeptical of all models of the future, and think a lot about the underlying assumptions. Models are generally an expression of the author’s biases with math laid over it. You have the 6,000 words above if you would like to know mine.\nThe recent Tesla model from ARK Investment should stand as a cautionary tale for everyone. Anyway, I have posted Excel worksheets to GitHub with the model, and all the major assumptions are modifiable. Each scenario is a separate worksheet.\nLet’s first look at some assumptions common to all four:\n\niPhone continues to exhibit a 3-year cyclical pattern. Fiscal 2021 is the high year, so 2024 is the next one.\nServices growth comes off to some extent in all scenarios from reduced App Store growth from legal or regulatory action in the US and Europe.\nWearables, etc. remains on its strong growth path on Apple Watch, AirPods, and at least one new product category, a VR headset.\nMac and iPad return roughly to their pre-pandemic patterns. Like all PC makes, Apple saw a big surge from work-from-home.\nFiscal 2021 is half-reported, so all scenarios assume that it will complete along Apple’s average seasonal pattern from 2016-2019.\nOther assumptions are in the Excel sheets.\n\nScenarios:\n\nLarge, the most optimistic.\nMedium, my base case.\nSmall is what Apple looks like if they come off the growth rates of the last 4-6 years.\nTiny is the same as Small through 2023, and then we’re going to throw some real problems at Apple.\n\nIn Medium:\n\nWe’ll model the iPhone cycle with the average growth rates of the 2015 and 2018 cycles.\nServices growth comes off of 2016-2020 trajectory because of legal or regulatory action on App Store by 2 pp.\nThe rest, as above.\n\nLarge and Small will, respectively, add and subtract from these growth rates in Medium. In addition, Large assumes:\n\nBoost in fiscal 2022-2025 for iPhone on 5G adoption.\nApple Silicon Macs gain Apple some PC market share.\nThe AR glasses come out in the middle of fiscal 2025. To be clear, I view that as an unlikely timeline, but it does not have a large effect on the model since it comes 6 months from the end of our interval.\n\nTiny is a special event-based scenario where we will throw the two worst plausible scenarios we can at Apple. It starts with a huge reduction in App Store revenues due to antitrust action in the US and Europe at the end of fiscal 2023, and getting kicked out of China at the end of fiscal 2024. The former will be modeled as a sharp downturn in Services revenue in fiscal 2024. The China expulsion will lead to a 15% drop in top line revenue, and a decrease in products gross margin by 5 pp in 2025. I don’t view either of these as particularly likely, but this is the worst it can get.\nIs Apple Stock A Buy Now?\nJust to double up on the warning: you should treat all models of the future with skepticism, including this one.\nThis table summarizes the results. Please hit up those Excel sheets if you’d like to frisk the math, or play around with your own assumptions.\n\nAs you can see, even Small doesn’t do so badly by 2025, and Tiny ends up almost in the green, since the bad events come towards the end. If they were to come earlier, those growth rates would be lower in Tiny.\nBut the year-by-year results get to something I’ve been trying to tell Apple shareholders for almost a year now:\n\nThat chart will explain to you why I started breaking my Apple recommendations down between long and short term. Since the price hit $130 last summer, it was pretty clear to me that except in a best-case scenario, the gains of fiscal 2021 and 2022 were already baked in.\n\nEven Large only shows a marginal gain by the end of the fiscal year 2021, and Medium and Small are flat or down through the end of 2022. I’ve used the phrase, “if your time horizon with Apple is short, now is a good time to take profits,” very frequently in the past 8 months. I still mean it.\nApple Stock Forecast For 2025\nLet’s zoom into each a bit, starting with the base case, Medium.\n\nI've included actual price growth for fiscal 2020 so you can see how we got here. In this view we can think of slow fair value growth from today to the end of fiscal 2022 as averaging out fiscal 2020. If we look at 2019-2022, that’s a 27% CAGR, much more in line with the growth rates in the out years of the model. The model is simply predicting that 2021 and 2022 are baked into today’s price.\nBut then you see that the model really picks up steam on the out-years, as Apple’s free cash flow, growing at a 15% 5-year CAGR in Medium, catches up with the price. All together, that’s a 13.8% CAGR over the four and a third years of the model, with a terminal value of $222.\nOf course Large is larger, with an enhanced iPhone cycle from 5G adoption and a little extra boost from the AR glasses at the end of fiscal 2025.\n\nTo be clear, I view this scenario as plausible, but not that likely, somewhere around the 25th percentile. In this scenario, 2022 does not show the flat or negative growth rates in 2022 like the others, and this is due to the 5G adoption part of our assumptions. That’s a 20.2% CAGR, and a terminal value of $283.\n\nThis model starts off very slowly, with only an 11% 2019-2022 CAGR compared to 27% for Medium, and down in 2022. But even the Small scenario picks up steam beginning in 2023. That’s an 18% CAGR from 2023-2025. But over the life of the model it is less than half that, 7.9%, a $184 terminal value.\n\nTiny is the same as Small until the events kick in beginning fiscal 2024. 2024 price growth comes way off Small, and takes a dive in 2025. Keep in mind, we are talking about the fair value a year after the event, so the price would likely go down much further first. Anyway, this one winds up roughly at the June 11 close over four years later.\nSo there it is: the thing I’ve been telling you for a while now, except with some modeling and pretty charts:\n\nExcept in our best case, Apple is likely to trade sideways for a while as cash flows catch up with the share price.\nBut absent some very bad events out of Apple’s control, the long term view is still very, very bright, even if they slow down.\n\nSeven thousand words summed up in two bullets.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169316326,"gmtCreate":1623816888465,"gmtModify":1631884324647,"author":{"id":"3581817256198016","authorId":"3581817256198016","name":"evepek","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581817256198016","authorIdStr":"3581817256198016"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope it opens over 10% lower tonight","listText":"Hope it opens over 10% lower tonight","text":"Hope it opens over 10% lower tonight","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169316326","repostId":"2143637047","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2143637047","pubTimestamp":1623798488,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2143637047?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 07:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Roblox Slides After Reporting Month-Over-Month Drop in Bookings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143637047","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Roblox Corp. shares fall 8% in extended trading after the video-game company said May bookings decli","content":"<p>Roblox Corp. shares fall 8% in extended trading after the video-game company said May bookings declined from the previous month.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70612b5b597a651743af5a0475e499fd\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The company estimated bookings to be between $216 million and $219 million in May, down about 11% at the midpoint from between $242 million and $245 million in April. Average bookings per daily active user also declined month over month.</p>\n<p>Truist Securities analyst Matthew Thornton said bookings look “softer than expected,” though he noted that the company has said that May metrics are typically down month over month, while June metrics are usually up.</p>\n<p>May daily active users also fell 1% from the previous month. Daily active users were 43 million in May, down from 43.3 million in April, though up 28% year over year, according to a release of the month’s key metrics.</p>\n<p>Roblox shares gained 2.3% on Tuesday. The stock has doubled since the company’s initial public offering in March.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Roblox Slides After Reporting Month-Over-Month Drop in Bookings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRoblox Slides After Reporting Month-Over-Month Drop in Bookings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-16 07:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-15/roblox-slides-after-reporting-month-over-month-drop-in-bookings?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Roblox Corp. shares fall 8% in extended trading after the video-game company said May bookings declined from the previous month.\n\nThe company estimated bookings to be between $216 million and $219 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-15/roblox-slides-after-reporting-month-over-month-drop-in-bookings?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-15/roblox-slides-after-reporting-month-over-month-drop-in-bookings?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143637047","content_text":"Roblox Corp. shares fall 8% in extended trading after the video-game company said May bookings declined from the previous month.\n\nThe company estimated bookings to be between $216 million and $219 million in May, down about 11% at the midpoint from between $242 million and $245 million in April. Average bookings per daily active user also declined month over month.\nTruist Securities analyst Matthew Thornton said bookings look “softer than expected,” though he noted that the company has said that May metrics are typically down month over month, while June metrics are usually up.\nMay daily active users also fell 1% from the previous month. Daily active users were 43 million in May, down from 43.3 million in April, though up 28% year over year, according to a release of the month’s key metrics.\nRoblox shares gained 2.3% on Tuesday. The stock has doubled since the company’s initial public offering in March.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":142,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":123762329,"gmtCreate":1624439755461,"gmtModify":1634006122284,"author":{"id":"3581817256198016","authorId":"3581817256198016","name":"evepek","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581817256198016","idStr":"3581817256198016"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Which will be the third company to do so?","listText":"Which will be the third company to do so?","text":"Which will be the third company to do so?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123762329","repostId":"1177243335","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167861851,"gmtCreate":1624259502473,"gmtModify":1631884163185,"author":{"id":"3581817256198016","authorId":"3581817256198016","name":"evepek","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581817256198016","idStr":"3581817256198016"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nike of course","listText":"Nike of course","text":"Nike of course","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167861851","repostId":"1154249454","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":211,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178261919,"gmtCreate":1626824067731,"gmtModify":1631884320893,"author":{"id":"3581817256198016","authorId":"3581817256198016","name":"evepek","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581817256198016","idStr":"3581817256198016"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope the rebounce will be sustainable&nbsp;","listText":"Hope the rebounce will be sustainable&nbsp;","text":"Hope the rebounce will be sustainable","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178261919","repostId":"2153924256","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153924256","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1626812915,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2153924256?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-21 04:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street bounces back on renewed economic optimism","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153924256","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK, July 20 (Reuters) - Wall Street ended sharply higher on Tuesday, rebounding from a multi-d","content":"<p>NEW YORK, July 20 (Reuters) - Wall Street ended sharply higher on Tuesday, rebounding from a multi-day losing streak as a string of upbeat earnings reports and revived economic optimism fueled a risk-on rally.</p>\n<p>All three major U.S. stock indexes gained more than 1% with the blue-chip Dow, on the heels of its worst day in nine months, leading the charge.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P notched its first advance in four days as well as registering its strongest day since March. The Nasdaq posted its first gain in six sessions.</p>\n<p>\"It’s a buy-the-dip mentality coming into the market,\" said Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services in Hammond, Indiana.</p>\n<p>Economically sensitive small caps&nbsp;and transports&nbsp;outperformed the broader market.</p>\n<p>Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields bounced back from five-month lows, in the wake of their biggest single-session decline since February in the prior session . This helped boost rate-vulnerable banks by 2.6%.</p>\n<p>\"The economically sensitive stocks are up today,\" Carlson added. \"When the 10-year (Treasury yield) goes down in a short period of time, that typically doesn’t happen with an economy that’s supposed to be growing. Firming in the 10-year (yield) indicates that perhaps the economy isn’t going to be falling off a cliff.\"</p>\n<p>Mounting concerns over the highly contagious Delta variant of COVID-19, now responsible for the majority of new infections, have sparked sell-offs in recent sessions as worldwide vaccination efforts gather momentum.</p>\n<p>\"Things like the Delta variant can certainly impact in the margins,\" Carlson said. \"It doesn’t take a whole lot of fear in some investors to create what we saw yesterday.\"</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 549.95 points, or 1.62%, to 34,511.99, the S&amp;P 500 gained 64.57 points, or 1.52%, to 4,323.06 and the Nasdaq Composite added 223.89 points, or 1.57%, to 14,498.88.</p>\n<p>Of the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500, all but consumer staples closed green. Industrials fared best, rising 2.7%.</p>\n<p>Second-quarter reporting season has hit full-stride, with 56 of the companies in the S&amp;P 500 having posted results. Of those, 91% have beaten consensus, according to Refinitiv.</p>\n<p>Analysts now see annual S&amp;P earnings growth of 72.9% for the April-June period, a significant improvement over the 54% growth seen at the beginning of the quarter.</p>\n<p>Halliburton Co&nbsp;rose 3.7% after a bounce-back in crude prices boosted oilfield services demand, leading the company to post its second consecutive quarterly profit.</p>\n<p>Peloton Interactive Inc&nbsp;advanced 6.7% after announcing it would provide UnitedHealth Group's fully insured members free access to its live and on-demand fitness classes.</p>\n<p>Moderna's&nbsp;stock dropped 2% in a volatile session on Tuesday, with the COVID-19 vaccine maker the most heavily traded company on Wall Street ahead of its debut in the S&amp;P 500 on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>Netflix Inc&nbsp;shares dipped more than 3% in after- hours trading after its forecast missed estimates.</p>\n<p>Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill gained over 2% post-market after its earnings and revenue beat consensus.</p>\n<p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 4.44-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.59-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 41 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 45 new highs and 76 new lows.</p>\n<p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.62 billion shares, compared with the 10.19 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street bounces back on renewed economic optimism</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street bounces back on renewed economic optimism\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-21 04:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK, July 20 (Reuters) - Wall Street ended sharply higher on Tuesday, rebounding from a multi-day losing streak as a string of upbeat earnings reports and revived economic optimism fueled a risk-on rally.</p>\n<p>All three major U.S. stock indexes gained more than 1% with the blue-chip Dow, on the heels of its worst day in nine months, leading the charge.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P notched its first advance in four days as well as registering its strongest day since March. The Nasdaq posted its first gain in six sessions.</p>\n<p>\"It’s a buy-the-dip mentality coming into the market,\" said Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services in Hammond, Indiana.</p>\n<p>Economically sensitive small caps&nbsp;and transports&nbsp;outperformed the broader market.</p>\n<p>Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields bounced back from five-month lows, in the wake of their biggest single-session decline since February in the prior session . This helped boost rate-vulnerable banks by 2.6%.</p>\n<p>\"The economically sensitive stocks are up today,\" Carlson added. \"When the 10-year (Treasury yield) goes down in a short period of time, that typically doesn’t happen with an economy that’s supposed to be growing. Firming in the 10-year (yield) indicates that perhaps the economy isn’t going to be falling off a cliff.\"</p>\n<p>Mounting concerns over the highly contagious Delta variant of COVID-19, now responsible for the majority of new infections, have sparked sell-offs in recent sessions as worldwide vaccination efforts gather momentum.</p>\n<p>\"Things like the Delta variant can certainly impact in the margins,\" Carlson said. \"It doesn’t take a whole lot of fear in some investors to create what we saw yesterday.\"</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 549.95 points, or 1.62%, to 34,511.99, the S&amp;P 500 gained 64.57 points, or 1.52%, to 4,323.06 and the Nasdaq Composite added 223.89 points, or 1.57%, to 14,498.88.</p>\n<p>Of the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500, all but consumer staples closed green. Industrials fared best, rising 2.7%.</p>\n<p>Second-quarter reporting season has hit full-stride, with 56 of the companies in the S&amp;P 500 having posted results. Of those, 91% have beaten consensus, according to Refinitiv.</p>\n<p>Analysts now see annual S&amp;P earnings growth of 72.9% for the April-June period, a significant improvement over the 54% growth seen at the beginning of the quarter.</p>\n<p>Halliburton Co&nbsp;rose 3.7% after a bounce-back in crude prices boosted oilfield services demand, leading the company to post its second consecutive quarterly profit.</p>\n<p>Peloton Interactive Inc&nbsp;advanced 6.7% after announcing it would provide UnitedHealth Group's fully insured members free access to its live and on-demand fitness classes.</p>\n<p>Moderna's&nbsp;stock dropped 2% in a volatile session on Tuesday, with the COVID-19 vaccine maker the most heavily traded company on Wall Street ahead of its debut in the S&amp;P 500 on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>Netflix Inc&nbsp;shares dipped more than 3% in after- hours trading after its forecast missed estimates.</p>\n<p>Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill gained over 2% post-market after its earnings and revenue beat consensus.</p>\n<p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 4.44-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.59-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 41 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 45 new highs and 76 new lows.</p>\n<p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.62 billion shares, compared with the 10.19 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153924256","content_text":"NEW YORK, July 20 (Reuters) - Wall Street ended sharply higher on Tuesday, rebounding from a multi-day losing streak as a string of upbeat earnings reports and revived economic optimism fueled a risk-on rally.\nAll three major U.S. stock indexes gained more than 1% with the blue-chip Dow, on the heels of its worst day in nine months, leading the charge.\nThe S&P notched its first advance in four days as well as registering its strongest day since March. The Nasdaq posted its first gain in six sessions.\n\"It’s a buy-the-dip mentality coming into the market,\" said Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services in Hammond, Indiana.\nEconomically sensitive small caps and transports outperformed the broader market.\nBenchmark U.S. Treasury yields bounced back from five-month lows, in the wake of their biggest single-session decline since February in the prior session . This helped boost rate-vulnerable banks by 2.6%.\n\"The economically sensitive stocks are up today,\" Carlson added. \"When the 10-year (Treasury yield) goes down in a short period of time, that typically doesn’t happen with an economy that’s supposed to be growing. Firming in the 10-year (yield) indicates that perhaps the economy isn’t going to be falling off a cliff.\"\nMounting concerns over the highly contagious Delta variant of COVID-19, now responsible for the majority of new infections, have sparked sell-offs in recent sessions as worldwide vaccination efforts gather momentum.\n\"Things like the Delta variant can certainly impact in the margins,\" Carlson said. \"It doesn’t take a whole lot of fear in some investors to create what we saw yesterday.\"\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 549.95 points, or 1.62%, to 34,511.99, the S&P 500 gained 64.57 points, or 1.52%, to 4,323.06 and the Nasdaq Composite added 223.89 points, or 1.57%, to 14,498.88.\nOf the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500, all but consumer staples closed green. Industrials fared best, rising 2.7%.\nSecond-quarter reporting season has hit full-stride, with 56 of the companies in the S&P 500 having posted results. Of those, 91% have beaten consensus, according to Refinitiv.\nAnalysts now see annual S&P earnings growth of 72.9% for the April-June period, a significant improvement over the 54% growth seen at the beginning of the quarter.\nHalliburton Co rose 3.7% after a bounce-back in crude prices boosted oilfield services demand, leading the company to post its second consecutive quarterly profit.\nPeloton Interactive Inc advanced 6.7% after announcing it would provide UnitedHealth Group's fully insured members free access to its live and on-demand fitness classes.\nModerna's stock dropped 2% in a volatile session on Tuesday, with the COVID-19 vaccine maker the most heavily traded company on Wall Street ahead of its debut in the S&P 500 on Wednesday.\nNetflix Inc shares dipped more than 3% in after- hours trading after its forecast missed estimates.\nShares of Chipotle Mexican Grill gained over 2% post-market after its earnings and revenue beat consensus.\nAdvancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 4.44-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.59-to-1 ratio favored advancers.\nThe S&P 500 posted 41 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 45 new highs and 76 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 10.62 billion shares, compared with the 10.19 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129057694,"gmtCreate":1624347224518,"gmtModify":1634007450056,"author":{"id":"3581817256198016","authorId":"3581817256198016","name":"evepek","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581817256198016","idStr":"3581817256198016"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Former Chartered Semiconductor&nbsp;","listText":"Former Chartered Semiconductor&nbsp;","text":"Former Chartered Semiconductor","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129057694","repostId":"2145053984","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":246,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165326507,"gmtCreate":1624098463309,"gmtModify":1631884324071,"author":{"id":"3581817256198016","authorId":"3581817256198016","name":"evepek","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581817256198016","idStr":"3581817256198016"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope the prediction is correct","listText":"Hope the prediction is correct","text":"Hope the prediction is correct","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165326507","repostId":"1113942445","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164335371,"gmtCreate":1624170767293,"gmtModify":1631884847646,"author":{"id":"3581817256198016","authorId":"3581817256198016","name":"evepek","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581817256198016","idStr":"3581817256198016"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go Boeing go","listText":"Go Boeing go","text":"Go Boeing go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164335371","repostId":"2144086770","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144086770","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1624062134,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2144086770?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-19 08:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Largest Boeing 737 MAX model takes off on maiden flight","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144086770","media":"Reuters","summary":"RENTON, Wash., June 18 (Reuters) - Boeing Co's 737 MAX 10, the largest member of its best-selling si","content":"<p>RENTON, Wash., June 18 (Reuters) - Boeing Co's 737 MAX 10, the largest member of its best-selling single-aisle airplane family, took off on its maiden flight on Friday, in a further step toward recovering from the safety grounding of a smaller model.</p>\n<p>The plane completed a roughly 2-1/2-hour flight over Washington State, returning to Renton Municipal Airport near Seattle at 12:38 p.m.</p>\n<p>The first flight heralds months of testing and safety certification work before the jet is expected to enter service in 2023.</p>\n<p>In an unusual departure from the PR buzz surrounding first flights, the event was kept low-key as Boeing tries to navigate overlapping crises caused by a 20-month grounding in the wake of two crashes and the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>\n<p>Boeing's 230-seat 737-10 is designed to close the gap between its 178-to-220-seat 737-9, and Airbus's 185-to-240-seat A321neo, which dominates the top end of the narrowbody jet market, worth some $3.5 trillion over 20 years.</p>\n<p>However, the market opportunity for the 737 MAX 10 is constrained by the jet's range of about 3,300 nautical miles (6,100 km), which falls short of the A321neo's roughly 4,000 nm.</p>\n<p>Boeing must also complete safety certification of the plane under a tougher regulatory climate following two fatal crashes of a smaller 737 MAX version grounded the model for nearly two years - with a safety ban still in place in China.</p>\n<p>Boeing has carried out design and training changes on the MAX family, which returned to U.S. operations in December.</p>\n<p>Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Stan Deal said the company is producing about 16 737 MAX jets a month at its Renton factory.</p>\n<p>Boeing is working on safety enhancements for the 737 MAX 10, including for its air data indication system and adding a third cockpit indication requested by European regulators of the \"angle of attack,\" a parameter needed to avoid stalling or losing lift. Deal’s comments were provided to the media via a pool reporter inside a Boeing aircraft delivery center.</p>\n<p>\"We're going to take our time on this certification,\" Deal said.</p>\n<p>While the smaller MAX 8 is Boeing's fastest-selling jet, slow sales of the MAX 9 and 10 models have put Boeing at a disadvantage to the A321neo.</p>\n<p>Boeing has abandoned plans to tinker with the 737 MAX 10 design, but is weighing a bolder plan to replace the single-aisle 757, which overlaps with the top end of the MAX family.</p>\n<p>Even so, Boeing says it is confident in the MAX 10, and it is stepping up efforts to sell more of the jet, with key targets, including Ireland's Ryanair .</p>\n<p>Customers include United Airlines with 100 on order. Although sources say United is weighing a new order for at least 100 or even up to 200 MAX, its requirement for large single-aisles will be served by Airbus - reinforcing the market split.</p>\n<p>The flight, watched by dozens of employees but virtually no visitors as Boeing sought to downplay the event, showcased a revamped landing gear system illustrating an industry battle to squeeze as much mileage as possible out of the current generation of single-aisles.</p>\n<p>It raises the landing gear's height during take-off and landing, a design needed to compensate for the MAX 10's extra length and prevent the tail scraping the runway on take-off.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Largest Boeing 737 MAX model takes off on maiden flight</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLargest Boeing 737 MAX model takes off on maiden flight\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-19 08:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>RENTON, Wash., June 18 (Reuters) - Boeing Co's 737 MAX 10, the largest member of its best-selling single-aisle airplane family, took off on its maiden flight on Friday, in a further step toward recovering from the safety grounding of a smaller model.</p>\n<p>The plane completed a roughly 2-1/2-hour flight over Washington State, returning to Renton Municipal Airport near Seattle at 12:38 p.m.</p>\n<p>The first flight heralds months of testing and safety certification work before the jet is expected to enter service in 2023.</p>\n<p>In an unusual departure from the PR buzz surrounding first flights, the event was kept low-key as Boeing tries to navigate overlapping crises caused by a 20-month grounding in the wake of two crashes and the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>\n<p>Boeing's 230-seat 737-10 is designed to close the gap between its 178-to-220-seat 737-9, and Airbus's 185-to-240-seat A321neo, which dominates the top end of the narrowbody jet market, worth some $3.5 trillion over 20 years.</p>\n<p>However, the market opportunity for the 737 MAX 10 is constrained by the jet's range of about 3,300 nautical miles (6,100 km), which falls short of the A321neo's roughly 4,000 nm.</p>\n<p>Boeing must also complete safety certification of the plane under a tougher regulatory climate following two fatal crashes of a smaller 737 MAX version grounded the model for nearly two years - with a safety ban still in place in China.</p>\n<p>Boeing has carried out design and training changes on the MAX family, which returned to U.S. operations in December.</p>\n<p>Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Stan Deal said the company is producing about 16 737 MAX jets a month at its Renton factory.</p>\n<p>Boeing is working on safety enhancements for the 737 MAX 10, including for its air data indication system and adding a third cockpit indication requested by European regulators of the \"angle of attack,\" a parameter needed to avoid stalling or losing lift. Deal’s comments were provided to the media via a pool reporter inside a Boeing aircraft delivery center.</p>\n<p>\"We're going to take our time on this certification,\" Deal said.</p>\n<p>While the smaller MAX 8 is Boeing's fastest-selling jet, slow sales of the MAX 9 and 10 models have put Boeing at a disadvantage to the A321neo.</p>\n<p>Boeing has abandoned plans to tinker with the 737 MAX 10 design, but is weighing a bolder plan to replace the single-aisle 757, which overlaps with the top end of the MAX family.</p>\n<p>Even so, Boeing says it is confident in the MAX 10, and it is stepping up efforts to sell more of the jet, with key targets, including Ireland's Ryanair .</p>\n<p>Customers include United Airlines with 100 on order. Although sources say United is weighing a new order for at least 100 or even up to 200 MAX, its requirement for large single-aisles will be served by Airbus - reinforcing the market split.</p>\n<p>The flight, watched by dozens of employees but virtually no visitors as Boeing sought to downplay the event, showcased a revamped landing gear system illustrating an industry battle to squeeze as much mileage as possible out of the current generation of single-aisles.</p>\n<p>It raises the landing gear's height during take-off and landing, a design needed to compensate for the MAX 10's extra length and prevent the tail scraping the runway on take-off.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144086770","content_text":"RENTON, Wash., June 18 (Reuters) - Boeing Co's 737 MAX 10, the largest member of its best-selling single-aisle airplane family, took off on its maiden flight on Friday, in a further step toward recovering from the safety grounding of a smaller model.\nThe plane completed a roughly 2-1/2-hour flight over Washington State, returning to Renton Municipal Airport near Seattle at 12:38 p.m.\nThe first flight heralds months of testing and safety certification work before the jet is expected to enter service in 2023.\nIn an unusual departure from the PR buzz surrounding first flights, the event was kept low-key as Boeing tries to navigate overlapping crises caused by a 20-month grounding in the wake of two crashes and the COVID-19 pandemic.\nBoeing's 230-seat 737-10 is designed to close the gap between its 178-to-220-seat 737-9, and Airbus's 185-to-240-seat A321neo, which dominates the top end of the narrowbody jet market, worth some $3.5 trillion over 20 years.\nHowever, the market opportunity for the 737 MAX 10 is constrained by the jet's range of about 3,300 nautical miles (6,100 km), which falls short of the A321neo's roughly 4,000 nm.\nBoeing must also complete safety certification of the plane under a tougher regulatory climate following two fatal crashes of a smaller 737 MAX version grounded the model for nearly two years - with a safety ban still in place in China.\nBoeing has carried out design and training changes on the MAX family, which returned to U.S. operations in December.\nBoeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Stan Deal said the company is producing about 16 737 MAX jets a month at its Renton factory.\nBoeing is working on safety enhancements for the 737 MAX 10, including for its air data indication system and adding a third cockpit indication requested by European regulators of the \"angle of attack,\" a parameter needed to avoid stalling or losing lift. Deal’s comments were provided to the media via a pool reporter inside a Boeing aircraft delivery center.\n\"We're going to take our time on this certification,\" Deal said.\nWhile the smaller MAX 8 is Boeing's fastest-selling jet, slow sales of the MAX 9 and 10 models have put Boeing at a disadvantage to the A321neo.\nBoeing has abandoned plans to tinker with the 737 MAX 10 design, but is weighing a bolder plan to replace the single-aisle 757, which overlaps with the top end of the MAX family.\nEven so, Boeing says it is confident in the MAX 10, and it is stepping up efforts to sell more of the jet, with key targets, including Ireland's Ryanair .\nCustomers include United Airlines with 100 on order. Although sources say United is weighing a new order for at least 100 or even up to 200 MAX, its requirement for large single-aisles will be served by Airbus - reinforcing the market split.\nThe flight, watched by dozens of employees but virtually no visitors as Boeing sought to downplay the event, showcased a revamped landing gear system illustrating an industry battle to squeeze as much mileage as possible out of the current generation of single-aisles.\nIt raises the landing gear's height during take-off and landing, a design needed to compensate for the MAX 10's extra length and prevent the tail scraping the runway on take-off.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161033389,"gmtCreate":1623895817241,"gmtModify":1634026218945,"author":{"id":"3581817256198016","authorId":"3581817256198016","name":"evepek","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581817256198016","idStr":"3581817256198016"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Vested","listText":"Vested","text":"Vested","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161033389","repostId":"1152604932","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152604932","pubTimestamp":1623895461,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152604932?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 10:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock Forecast For 2025: A Slow Start, Then Strong Growth","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152604932","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is the products company most prepared for the future, whatever that may bring. I give","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple is the products company most prepared for the future, whatever that may bring. I give you nine reasons.</li>\n <li>The dangers to Apple’s long-term prospects are mostly event-based, and mostly out of their control.</li>\n <li>I lay out four scenarios and DCF models. You should treat DCF models with the skepticism they deserve.</li>\n <li>With the exception of the best case, they show the stock trading sideways or down through the end of fiscal 2022, then growing fast thereafter.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d06df668b5536634ebfca099d90d9852\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"988\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>The Long-Term Apple Thesis</b></p>\n<p>I write a lot about Apple (AAPL), 15% of&nbsp;my articles&nbsp;here at Seeking Alpha since I started in 2018. Mostly, I write about what is happening now. For example, the last one was about the&nbsp;implications for Apple&nbsp;should they be forced to back off their App Store rules, whether through courts or regulation.</p>\n<p>Almost a year ago, I began breaking my conclusions about Apple stock into two sections: one for investors who are into Apple for the long haul like I am, and a section for those whose time horizons are much shorter than “I hope to die with these shares.” This article is for the Die With These Shares Crowd.</p>\n<p>I was first an Apple shareholder in 1982, but I sold those shares when Steve Jobs sold his. Since 2005, I have been a continuous shareholder and have never sold a share. Like I said, I hope to die with them. Over the years, the reasons I remain an Apple shareholder have grown:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>They have the most complete and unique tech stack in the world.</li>\n <li>They have the best product development process.</li>\n <li>They have the best corporate organization.</li>\n <li>They are the only megacap who sees privacy and security as a differentiator and marketable feature, not as a cost-center.</li>\n <li>ESG focus years ahead of everyone else.</li>\n <li>The Apple brand</li>\n <li>While the sum of their parts is impressive, the Apple ecosystem makes it so much more.</li>\n <li>When everything is taken into account, iPhone gives a lot of value for the price.</li>\n <li>A cash pile and cash flows to back up their ambitions.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>What it adds up to is a company that is prepared for the future, whatever that may bring. Success in tech is notoriously hard to maintain. IBM (IBM) dominated computers and high end office equipment for 80 years until they didn’t. Sitting here today in 2021, I have a very high level of confidence that this will not be happening to Apple any time soon.</p>\n<p><b>The Tech Stack</b></p>\n<p>One of my favorite factoids about Apple is that despite the fact that their intangible assets would be the most of anyone, they do not list any on their balance sheet. This is where IP and brands go. We’ll get to the brand in a moment, but the core of what makes Apple so durable is their tech stack, now higher and more complete than anyone’s.</p>\n<p>The most important things in the stack are at the base — the Apple chip design unit, which went from nothing to the best in the world in about a decade, and the operating systems, which at their root are all the same thing. They are the only company that designs products and the chips and operating systems that run them, though it looks like Microsoft (MSFT) would like to join them.</p>\n<p><b>Chip Design</b></p>\n<p>Custom chip design is becoming more and more important. Apple was one of the first to recognize the importance of this in making products that are unique in a crowded marketplace. The first iPhone came with a Samsung ARM-based system-on-a-chip (SoC). Less than a year later, Apple bought PA Semi, a low-power SoC designer, for $278 million in cash. Other than the NeXT acquisition that brought back Steve Jobs, this was the best investment Apple ever made.</p>\n<p>The first Apple-designed chip to show up in a product was the A4 in iPhone 4, only two years after the PA Semi acquisition. Quickly, the reaction went from “Apple thinks they can make a SoC?” to “Hey, these things are pretty good.” Now the A-series is widely regarded as the best smartphone SoC.</p>\n<p>The A-series is the most important, but that is only the beginning. There is also the S-series for Apple Watch, H-series for headphones, W-series for wireless connectivity, U-series, which enables AirTags features, and the new M-series for Macs. Within a couple of years, all Apple devices, from AirPods to the Mac Pro will run on Apple Silicon.</p>\n<p>The work they have done here is really showing up in the new M1 Macs, because we have something to compare to — the previous generation of the same model with Intel’s hardware.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c99acb1ab262241f7195d5ef491c64ac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>Annotated Apple video screenshot.</span></p>\n<p>By switching to their own silicon, Apple was able to make the same computer, but with a tablet-sized motherboard, a larger screen, and very low power requirements, while still being much faster than the Intel alternative. Already, the next version of macOS will not support some features on Intel Macs, because they lack the machine learning cores. </p>\n<p><b>The Operating Systems</b></p>\n<p>When Apple was developing iPhone there was two ways to go for the operating system: build up from iPod, or shrink Mac OS X. There was an internal contest along parallel tracks, and the shrunken Mac won out. Because of this decision, all the operating systems are essentially the same thing.</p>\n<p>OS X came from NextStep which was the reason for the NeXT acquisition. Apple had not been able to move past what became known as Mac OS Classic with its own internal project, Copeland, and they needed help. Also, the deal came with Steve Jobs.</p>\n<p>NextStep was the first attempt to take a UNIX operating system and put a friendly graphical user interface on top of it. At the core is a UNIX microkernel. As the name implies, this is a small bit of software that manages the most basic functions of the software/hardware interface. Everything else is built in modular blocks of code layered on each other. Each device gets the blocks it needs, and excludes the ones it doesn’t.</p>\n<p>So at root, the microkernel and the core blocks of the operating systems have a ton of overlap, and are very much the same. The original iPhone OS and OS X were so similar that even before Apple released their official iPhone software development kit, or SDK, developers were already making iPhone apps using a slightly modified Mac SDK.</p>\n<p>A good example is networking. All the devices share the same basic networking software, but macOS has wired connection drivers the others don’t. iOS 14 has 5G drivers the others don’t.</p>\n<p><b>The Rest</b></p>\n<p>On top of that rock-solid foundation sits the rest of it. The list is too long to go through entirely. This is a company that&nbsp;patented a pizza box&nbsp;which is only used in Apple’s&nbsp;Caffe Macs&nbsp;employee cafeterias. But these are the parts where we see continuous development every year.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The location/orientation sensor package. Originally for iPhone, this now includes accelerometers, gyroscopes, GPS, altimeters, and the newest additions, LiDAR and the U1 chip, which makes AirTags possible, with more coming. With this combination, Apple devices know where they are in 3D space, orientation, and where they are relative to other objects, especially ones that also have the U1 chip.</li>\n <li>Voice recognition.</li>\n <li>AR.</li>\n <li>On-device machine learning. This includes continuous work on both hardware and software. The A-series and M-series SoCs come loaded with ML cores.</li>\n <li>Audio/video/photo. Again, both hardware and software.</li>\n <li>Maybe their own 5G radio chip. We’ll see.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>What This All Means For 2025</b></p>\n<p>What this means is that when Apple is setting out to build a new device, they begin halfway to the finish line. The basics are there already, and they get to spend their time and energy focusing on the parts that make each device unique. And as we’ll look at in the next section, they still spend more time sweating that last mile than anyone else.</p>\n<p>Let’s look at Apple’s current Big Idea, which is augmenting or replacing the venerable graphical user interface with a combination of AR and voice control, AKA Siri. Apple just hit a big milestone in that journey with the announcement of on-device voice recognition in iOS 15 coming this fall. This is key to their thinking in whatever they are doing with a car, and also of course in AR/VR products. According to rumors, we should see at least some aspects of both of these by the end of 2025.</p>\n<p>But beyond the AR-voice package, each device will get a chip specifically designed for that device, unlike most others who will be using chips designed for a wide range of OEMs. It will overlap a lot with other Apple SoCs, but it will contain a unique combination of units chosen just for that device. When the software team is working on the operating system and apps, most of the under-the-hood work is done. They get to focus on making the unique interface they want for that product. The sensor package will come into the design of either a car or AR glasses, as will all the rest of it.</p>\n<p><b>Product Development</b></p>\n<p>Apple approaches product development differently than every other company. In the first place, they say “no” to many things, even deep into the development process, most we never get to hear about. This allows them to focus on what they do make, and make their products unique, even when competing a crowded space.</p>\n<p>My favorite example here is a negative one, the&nbsp;ill-fated AirPower charging mat. Apple wanted to make a unique offering that was specifically designed around Apple products, but they could not pull off the dual-coil design without overheating. Instead of releasing an undifferentiated product, they killed it, even though it had been pre-announced. This sort of thing happens internally all the time. We got to see the sausage made, just this once.</p>\n<p>But it goes beyond just saying “no” a lot. Apple approaches almost everything in a very slow, deliberate manner:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Focus entirely on the customer experience.</li>\n <li>Don’t let anyone else get in between you and the customer.</li>\n <li>People often don’t know what they want until you show it to them.</li>\n <li>Don’t compete directly against successful incumbents, but figure out what Apple’s unique contribution is, focused on the entire ecosystem.</li>\n <li>Don’t release a new product or feature until you are ready to, no matter what analysts or the tech press say you should do.</li>\n <li>Find a way to dip your toe into the market first, gauge customer reaction, and slowly keep adding year after year.</li>\n <li>Have relatively few SKUs. Keep the product lines relatively simple.</li>\n <li>Don’t be afraid to ditch old but popular technologies.</li>\n <li>As much as possible, own all the key technologies in your devices.</li>\n <li>Hardware and software development are concurrent and work together.</li>\n <li>Do not worry that a new product is displacing another source of revenue.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Sometimes this can hurt an Apple product relative to competition. The HomePod is a good example here. Because of their relative lack of data collection, Siri will never be as capable as Alexa or Google Assistant. So when designing a “smart speaker,” Apple focused more on the speaker part, because they have handicapped themselves on the smart part. This led to an expensive device that didn’t have as much functionality as competing products. But it sounded great. This is a tradeoff they are willing to make, because security and privacy in the ecosystem is a higher level goal than having a smart speaker.</p>\n<p>But as careful and deliberate as Apple is, they can also act blazingly fast when they think they need to. This letter, recently served up by one of my favorite Twitter accounts,Internal Tech Emails,kind of blew my mind.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b90176b70c1560583646501f52a11f06\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"683\"></p>\n<p>Bertrand Serlet was the SVP of Software Engineering (“SWE” in the email) at the time. Scott Forstall was the lead on iOS. Steve Jobs you know. What you see here is the birth of the App Store, now worth $16 billion a year in net sales to Apple, decided in an email exchange in less than an hour.</p>\n<p>The timeline here is that iPhone was released in June 2007. In September 2007, the first easily installed app store for jailbroken iPhones, Cydia, was released. It was a warning to Apple that they had to release their own App Store, along with developer tools like they had on the Mac, or risk losing control of the device. Too many people looked at this “phone” and saw a pocket computer.</p>\n<p>This email exchange happened less than a month after Cydia. Serlet laid out everything the App Store was and still is in four quick bullets, made a request for a large amount of resources to pull it off (“whoever we need in SWE”), and asked for a yes-or-no decision. Jobs replied less than an hour later with an absurd timeline (it came out in March, but was announced in January), and approved a now-$16 billion a year business in a single sentence.</p>\n<p>Most of the time they move very slowly and deliberately, making sure everything is exactly right before release. But they can also push something out quickly if it is of strategic importance like App Store. This can also fall on its face at launch, like Apple Maps, which is why Apple prefers to move slowly, all else being equal.</p>\n<p><b>Organization</b></p>\n<p>One of the key foundations of Apple’s success is their amorphous org chart which promotes collaboration and prevents turf wars. On paper, there are three key technical function-based Senior VPs below CEO Tim Cook:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>SVP of Software Engineering, Craig Federighi.</li>\n <li>SVP of Hardware Engineering. This is now John Ternus, after longtime SVP of Hardware, Dan Riccio, moved over to shepherd AR/VR devices full time, underlining their importance.</li>\n <li>SVP of Services, Eddie Cue.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This is supplemented by the SVP of Worldwide Marketing position, now filled by Greg Joswiak, after Apple lifer Phil Schiller moved on to semi-retirement as an “Apple Fellow,” whatever that is. The Epic trial made clear that Schiller is very much still involved. Joswiak and Schiller are sort of Ministers-Without-Portfolio, who dip in on all strategic questions, and the guardians of the brand. VP of Environment, Policy and Social Initiatives, Lisa Jackson, has a growing voice in big decisions.</p>\n<p>But as became apparent in a lot of the Apple corporate emails that Epic presented at trial, these people and their main lieutenants are constantly up in each other’s business, and that is by design. The walls between the SVPs are very thin, and no one gets to that position unless they understand that turf wars don’t happen at Apple. But the function-based organization sort of prevents it in the first place.</p>\n<p>When Apple decided to make iPhone, iPod was 35% of Apple’s revenue. But in meetings and email exchanges, there was no SVP of iPod to object loudly that their ox was being gored. There are many companies that would have killed iPhone because of this. Hardware, Software and Services all have big roles in all Apple products, whether it’s iPod, iPhone or anything that has followed. In that email in the previous section, Bertrand Serlet asks for whomever he needs to meet a fast timeline. That means he was pulling people off the Mac OS X team to work on the iPhone SDK and App Store, of course, in concert with Services and Hardware. Phil Schiller also had a lot to say. Again, there was no SVP of Mac to loudly object.</p>\n<p>We now see this collaborative organization and culture expressed as architecture in Apple Park.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51642a2ed19cf03d32baea87ed1d839f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\"><span>Apple Maps screenshot</span></p>\n<p>At a cost of $4-$5 billion, Apple built a new campus entirely designed around the idea of encouraging collaboration across groups, and random encounters between people who normally would not be interacting. The parking lots are to south out of frame of that screenshot, and everyone enters and exits on those footpaths. Along the way, they have to pass by lots of other offices and groups, or go through the center courtyard, a central place to hang out.</p>\n<p>Apple did not build this so people could&nbsp;work from home.</p>\n<p><b>The Ecosystem</b></p>\n<p>Before we talk about the sum of the parts, let’s start with the parts. These are the rankings that Apple product segments would have had in the&nbsp;2021 Fortune 500&nbsp;as stand-alones (by revenue)</p>\n<ul>\n <li>iPhone at $166 billion in TTM net sales would place at number 12, between Costco (COST) and Cigna (CI).</li>\n <li>Services at $60 billion would place 52 between Albertsons (ACI) and Valero (VLO). That’s about a third of all Google’s revenue (number 9), and about 70% of Facebook’s revenue (number 34).</li>\n <li>Wearables, Home, and Accessories at $35 billion would place at 89 between Deere (DE) and Abbott Labs (ABT). Apple is the largest maker of both watches and headphones now. For comparison, Swatch’s (OTCPK:SWGAF) TTM revenues were $6.3 billion.</li>\n <li>Mac at $34 billion would place at 90 between Abbott and Northwestern Mutual. This is about a third of Dell’s (DELL) revenue (number 28).</li>\n <li>iPad's $30 billion would be the only segment outside the Fortune 100 at number 101, between Tesla (TSLA) and Philip Morris (PM).</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Apple consolidated comes in third by revenue behind Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN), but first in profits, 30% higher than number two Microsoft.</p>\n<p>Of course the ecosystem is what feeds this sales machine. Apple Watch is so popular, in part, because of its tie-in to iPhone and the suite of services, especially now with Fitness+. Apple Music as a stand-alone may not have survived without the tie in to all the rest of Apple. I could keep going on, but the success of everything rests on top of everything else.</p>\n<p>The Walled Garden is a metaphor that people have used to describe the Apple family of products and services. Some, like Apple, put the emphasis on the garden. Others, like Epic, put the emphasis on the walls, like the ones in a prison. But whether people stay in the ecosystem because it’s hard to leave, or just because they like it there is a little immaterial until we get to antitrust, which we’ll talk about in a little bit. It’s a bit of both, of course, that make Apple products so sticky.</p>\n<p>The foundation of this is the wide-and-tall tech stack that lets Apple be the only company that makes PCs, tablets, smartphones, smartwatches and headphones, the SoCs that run them, and also every line of code these devices ship with. These devices can seamlessly work with each other in ways the Windows/Android alternative cannot. Another one of these features is coming with the fall OS updates, Universal Control.</p>\n<p>Every year at WWDC, Apple updates the software part of this, and the deep integration of services also gives Apple an advantage over competitors, which has become an antitrust focus, especially for Spotify (SPOT) in Europe.</p>\n<p>But beyond that, the Apple ecosystem is entirely unique</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Microsoft makes PC operating systems and software that sell well, and devices that sell poorly. They have some good consumer services like Xbox gaming, but not many. They are reportedly working on a chip for their Surface products.</li>\n <li>Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) makes a wide range of devices, but not operating systems (unless you count Tizen, now merging with Google's WearOS), or any notable apps or services. They design their own chips, but often use competitors’ in products.</li>\n <li>Google (GOOGL) has a very popular operating system and apps, and is the king of services, but their devices sell poorly. They make data center chips for their own use, but not for consumers.</li>\n <li>Amazon and Facebook (FB) are starting from the bottom-up. Both tried and failed with phones. Amazon has a fork of Android, and low-cost tablets that sell reasonably well. Amazon’s Echo products do well, Facebook’s hardware less so. Both do well with services and apps. The recent Amazon Sidewalk launch with Tile is Amazon trying to build up that ecosystem infrastructure. Amazon has a chip unit for AWS, but neither company has consumer chip design.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Only Apple has the complete package. But there are threats to the ecosystem, and I believe Apple is very likely to have to give up some control, especially with regard to App Store. By 2025 we should expect Apple’s App Store commission rate to drop, but the rest should remain very strong.</p>\n<p><b>Privacy, Security And ESG</b></p>\n<p>I’m lumping these together, because they add up to the same thing: Apple has been able to skate to where the puck is going on important societal issues. They see these things not as costs, but marketable features that burnish the Apple brand.</p>\n<p>I don’t think there’s any reason for me to belabor the security and privacy comparison with Windows and especially Android. Like everyone, Apple does not have a perfect record, and we’ll talk some more in a moment about that.</p>\n<p>But let’s return to that 2007 email, which is like an Apple Rosetta Stone. Serlet's first two bullets are about limits Apple is going to place on developers with the goals of “protect the user,” and “protect the networks.” Only after that does he get to what developers get access to. That’s indicative of all their thinking. Securing the user and networks is the first order priority.</p>\n<p>Here’s a quick list of the security and privacy enhancements they just announced at WWDC:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>iCloud VPN at no extra cost to paid iCloud accounts.</li>\n <li>On-device speech recognition.</li>\n <li>Third party Siri devices that do not give those third parties access to your commands. Common commands will execute without leaving the house.</li>\n <li>Further support for iCloud home security video, which does image analysis on-device, and only uploads encrypted video to the cloud.</li>\n <li>House keys and state ID support in Wallet. TSA will accept digital IDs when it becomes available.</li>\n <li>A new App Privacy Report with details on what all apps are doing with their permissions. Google just announced something very similar for Android 12.</li>\n <li>After grimly reminding us that we will all die someday, iOS 15 allows adding of legacy contact who can access your account after you are gone.</li>\n <li>Securely and privately share health data with a provider.</li>\n <li>Protection from email tracking pixels.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>That was just what they announced this year.</p>\n<p>So let’s turn it around and talk about what these things cost Apple. The biggest costs are not direct ones but opportunity costs from their relative lack of data collection. Their services suffer because of this:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The iAd ad network never got off the ground because it denied advertisers the data they were getting elsewhere.</li>\n <li>Similarly, all their attempts at adding social media features have failed for the same reason.</li>\n <li>Siri lags Alexa and Google Assistant, and this also hurt them in the smart speaker space.</li>\n <li>It is harder for them to build massive centralized AI models like Google and Facebook.</li>\n <li>The engagement and targeting algorithms for App Store, News, Music, TV+, Stocks, Arcade and ads would all be better. Apple has tried to be unique here with added human curation.</li>\n <li>They don’t trade user data like other credit card companies.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Then there are the direct costs, which we have little insight into, but certainly stretches into the billions of dollars. Some of the key parts come under the chip design unit: the Secure Enclave and the machine learning cores. Along with the supporting software these are key units in the A and M series SoCs.</p>\n<p>They currently already do a lot of work in keeping data analysis on-device, leveraging those machine learning cores, and only uploading encrypted data to the cloud using the secure enclave. But the eventual goal I believe is to have all Siri interactions happen on-device, which minimizes what Apple collects about users. As noted, they just took a major step in that direction with on-device voice recognition. To me, that was the single biggest announcement at WWDC. I thought Apple was maybe two years from announcing that.</p>\n<p>When we talk about ESG, the direct Capex costs are growing there. Apple Park is the largest LEED Platinum office building in North America. They are currently working through $4.7 billion in green bonds, building solar, wind and battery storage. Apple currently has all of Apple worldwide corporate operations carbon neutral. But the big, costly project is getting the entire supply chain to carbon neutral. They claim they will do that by 2030.</p>\n<p>In 2021, this is a very effective marketing narrative, and it will only become more so over time. In 2025 these issues will resonate even more deeply.</p>\n<p><b>The Brand</b></p>\n<p>Security, privacy and ESG burnish the brand, but the products are the core of it. Again, Apple does not list intangibles, but&nbsp;Interbrand&nbsp;put the value of the Apple brand at $323 billion in 2020. Amazon was number two at $201 billion. Here’s how Interbrand put it.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Ultimately, Apple’s distinctiveness – or, in fact, uniqueness – isn’t a result of what the brand says, but what it does. It’s Apple’s products, technologies and stores that speak to the organisation’s philosophy of beautiful simplicity and individual empowerment – much more than any campaign could ever do. Inasmuch as many talk about the brand’s aura, Apple has consistently changed what was in people’s minds by changing what was in their hands.\n</blockquote>\n<p>It’s amazing what 25 years of making great products will do. This is important because a strong brand can buoy a company through bad weather. Apple’s brand can weather a long storm.</p>\n<p><b>The iPhone Value Proposition</b></p>\n<p>Apple products are notoriously expensive. But are they? Mac is expensive when you compare to alternatives, but iPhone turns out to be a pretty good value. To begin with, iPhone gets many years of operating system support, in contrast to Android products outside of Google’s poorly-selling Pixel. I have a friend who can afford any phone he wants, but he likes small phones, and hated Jony Ive’s rounded edges. He bought an iPhone SE in March 2016 for $399, and held on to until last December when he traded it in for an iPhone 12 mini. When he traded it in, it was running the current version, iOS 14. If he still owned it, he would be able to upgrade it to iOS 15 in the fall.</p>\n<p>I joke with him that he really extracted maximum value from that iPhone SE, but let’s look at what that looks like for someone in 2021 who is budget conscious. Forgetting about any trade-in subsidies:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>$399 iPhone SE 2nd generation base model</li>\n <li>Paid for with Apple Card. That gets a 3% discount on price, and 24 months of 0% interest.</li>\n <li>Include AppleCare+ for product life to account for an inevitable battery replacement and unforeseeables.</li>\n <li>That’s $19.91 a month for the first 24 months, and $3.29 thereafter.</li>\n <li>Discount future payments by 1.75% a year for inflation.</li>\n <li>Since the phone is already a year old, we’ll shave a year off operating system support, so that’s 6 years.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>For 6 years of worry-free ownership and operating system updates, that’s $599 in 2021 dollars. If you wanted to risk it and not get AppleCare+, it’s only $381 paid over 2 years. This is very comparable to similar offerings from&nbsp;Samsung,OnePlus, and&nbsp;Google. Only Google’s Pixel gets guaranteed OS updates beyond that first year.</p>\n<p>Turning to the flagship models:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a08bc783267a97e370e0a432f3ca6dcf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\"></p>\n<p>Apple has the most expensive flagship but not by much. The Google Pixel 5 seems like a great deal to me, and I remain surprised at how poorly the Pixels have sold. Also, looking at the green bars, the iPhone 12 Pro Max looks like the best deal of the bunch.</p>\n<p>Only the Pixel gets guaranteed updates beyond that first year. Apple is still supporting 5 models released in the Obama administration. But there’s a lot more that comes with iPhone that doesn’t come with any Android phone.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The best smartphone chip.</li>\n <li>Hardware and software developed together.</li>\n <li>Tight integration with PC, tablet, watch and wireless headphones.</li>\n <li>Far better malware security in App Store.</li>\n <li>Most new apps start on iOS, so Apple users get first crack.</li>\n <li>Native productivity suite.</li>\n <li>Native audio and video editing with surprising capability for phone apps.</li>\n <li>No tracking of location and other data by Google unless you use Google services.</li>\n <li>Convenient service and free classes at an Apple Store near you.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Apple users give up a little bit of freedom, mostly in App Store, for all this, but I think it’s a tradeoff everyone understands at this point. As time wears on, it has become harder and harder for other phone manufacturers to keep up with Apple on both price and features. By 2025, it will be even harder.</p>\n<p><b>Risks To The Story</b></p>\n<p>There are three big threats to the rosy picture I am painting. One is geopolitical, one is regulatory, and one is social.</p>\n<p><b>China</b></p>\n<p>US-China relations are at their lowest ebb since Mao hosted Nixon in 1972. The Biden Administration has pulled back from some of the excesses of the previous Administration, but we seem to be on a long march towards, at a minimum, a bifurcation of the technology world. I do not view this as a positive development for many reasons, but it hits Apple hard.</p>\n<p>Apple is pretty unique in the scale of their dependence on China from both the supply side and the demand side. Let’s start on the supply side.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Substantially all of the Company’s manufacturing is performed in whole or in part by outsourcing partners located primarily in Asia. A significant concentration of this manufacturing is currently performed by a small number of outsourcing partners, often in single locations.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n - Apple annual report “Risk Factors”\n</blockquote>\n<p>From the demand side, it fluctuates, but in the current 3-year iPhone supercycle period, Apple is averaging 16.8% of net sales from Greater China, which includes Taiwan and Hong Kong.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f3a5e0338dac745a79fb9839439fa60\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"375\"></p>\n<p><b>Antitrust</b></p>\n<p>I’m not going to dwell on this, since everyone is better acquainted with this threat because of the Epic trial. But there is a movement afoot to refashion antitrust law in a way that would not be favorable to Apple, with the amount of control they like to exercise over the ecosystem. This is in the US courts now, but legislative and regulatory bodies in the US and Europe are turning towards iOS, especially App Store. The threat is not open-ended like it is for Google and Facebook, as it is contained to App Store, 28% of Services net sales and 5.4% of consolidated Apple. But that second number, small as it is, has been growing quickly.</p>\n<p>In contrast to China, I view some sort of reduced take from App Store as inevitable, and the only question is the scale of the reduction. Already, according to Epic trial filings, Apple’s take is probably between 25% and 26% on App Store, not 30% as it is always reported. That is going lower.</p>\n<p>Based on the comments in my articles on the&nbsp;Epic trial, I think Apple shareholders are also underestimating the probability of this happening.</p>\n<p><b>Tall Poppy Syndrome</b></p>\n<p>This is a phrase I just learned from an Australian friend. Wikipedia&nbsp;defines&nbsp;it as</p>\n<blockquote>\n a cultural phenomenon of jealous people holding back or directly attacking those who are perceived to be better than the norm, \"cutting down the tall poppy\".\n</blockquote>\n<p>That’s roughly how my Aussie friend described it to me. People love a comeback story, and that was the Apple narrative for a long time. But Apple is now far too profitable for too long to be the Comeback Kid anymore. Now there seems to be an appetite in the media and society for cutting Apple down to size.</p>\n<p>For example, Washington Post ran an article as I was writing this section that talked about&nbsp;18 scam apps&nbsp;that were in the top 1000 grossing apps on the day Apple was testifying in front of the Senate about App Store.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c268692981ac4739fd7390468e487103\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"137\"><span>Washington Post screenshot</span></p>\n<p>Apple needs to do better. But there is no control group. The article never asks how many scam apps they stopped that day, or how many scam apps were on the Google Play Store or other Android stores that day.Apple claims&nbsp;they stopped $1.5 billion in fraudulent transaction in 2020, 2.4% of all App Store transactions.</p>\n<p>To be clear, the Washington Post article is claiming that Apple is not really curating App Store based on their one-day survey. The total net sales to Apple for these apps was $8.3 million before Apple axed them. Apple is a company that will have around $350 billion in net sales in fiscal 2021, and had something like $16 billion from App Store in calendar 2020. They are not sandbagging their hard-earned reputation over $8.3 million.</p>\n<p>This is sometimes called the “Five Nines Problem.” Five nines is 99.999%, and is sort of the standard for “almost perfect” in a lot of tech. But tech companies like Apple, Google, Facebook, etc. operate at massive scale and they need more nines. App Store has 1.8 million apps, and five nines means 180 malicious apps get through, and maybe 10% of those wind up in the top 1000 grossers. The good news is that Apple does not need the Washington Post to tell them they need to get better at this, but it is not easy.</p>\n<p>This is a more nebulous threat than the others, but the last time I felt like this was when the narrative on Microsoft turned sharply after Windows 95. That ended up in a long battle with the Department of Justice that sucked corporate focus for years.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Stock Price Model: Four Scenarios</b></p>\n<p><i>Many of the assumptions for these models are all based off of my deep dives on Apple quarters after they report. The last of them on 2021 Q2is here.</i></p>\n<p>So let’s take all that qualitative data, and try and stuff it through a revenue and DCF model. I recommend you be very skeptical of all models of the future, and think a lot about the underlying assumptions. Models are generally an expression of the author’s biases with math laid over it. You have the 6,000 words above if you would like to know mine.</p>\n<p>The recent&nbsp;Tesla model from ARK Investment&nbsp;should stand as a cautionary tale for everyone. Anyway, I have posted&nbsp;Excel worksheets&nbsp;to GitHub with the model, and all the major assumptions are modifiable. Each scenario is a separate worksheet.</p>\n<p>Let’s first look at some assumptions common to all four:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>iPhone continues to exhibit a 3-year cyclical pattern. Fiscal 2021 is the high year, so 2024 is the next one.</li>\n <li>Services growth comes off to some extent in all scenarios from reduced App Store growth from legal or regulatory action in the US and Europe.</li>\n <li>Wearables, etc. remains on its strong growth path on Apple Watch, AirPods, and at least one new product category, a VR headset.</li>\n <li>Mac and iPad return roughly to their pre-pandemic patterns. Like all PC makes, Apple saw a&nbsp;big surge&nbsp;from work-from-home.</li>\n <li>Fiscal 2021 is half-reported, so all scenarios assume that it will complete along Apple’s average seasonal pattern from 2016-2019.</li>\n <li>Other assumptions are in the Excel sheets.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Scenarios:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Large, the most optimistic.</li>\n <li>Medium, my base case.</li>\n <li>Small is what Apple looks like if they come off the growth rates of the last 4-6 years.</li>\n <li>Tiny is the same as Small through 2023, and then we’re going to throw some real problems at Apple.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>In Medium:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>We’ll model the iPhone cycle with the average growth rates of the 2015 and 2018 cycles.</li>\n <li>Services growth comes off of 2016-2020 trajectory because of legal or regulatory action on App Store by 2 pp.</li>\n <li>The rest, as above.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Large and Small will, respectively, add and subtract from these growth rates in Medium. In addition, Large assumes:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Boost in fiscal 2022-2025 for iPhone on 5G adoption.</li>\n <li>Apple Silicon Macs gain Apple some PC market share.</li>\n <li>The AR glasses come out in the middle of fiscal 2025. To be clear, I view that as an unlikely timeline, but it does not have a large effect on the model since it comes 6 months from the end of our interval.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Tiny is a special event-based scenario where we will throw the two worst plausible scenarios we can at Apple. It starts with a huge reduction in App Store revenues due to antitrust action in the US and Europe at the end of fiscal 2023, and getting kicked out of China at the end of fiscal 2024. The former will be modeled as a sharp downturn in Services revenue in fiscal 2024. The China expulsion will lead to a 15% drop in top line revenue, and a decrease in products gross margin by 5 pp in 2025. I don’t view either of these as particularly likely, but this is the worst it can get.</p>\n<p><b>Is Apple Stock A Buy Now?</b></p>\n<p><i>Just to double up on the warning: you should treat all models of the future with skepticism, including this one.</i></p>\n<p>This table summarizes the results. Please hit up those Excel sheets if you’d like to frisk the math, or play around with your own assumptions.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f5cc7ac9dba0aa62b43bacac07a51c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"164\"></p>\n<p>As you can see, even Small doesn’t do so badly by 2025, and Tiny ends up almost in the green, since the bad events come towards the end. If they were to come earlier, those growth rates would be lower in Tiny.</p>\n<p>But the year-by-year results get to something I’ve been trying to tell Apple shareholders for almost a year now:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0dd5f3db1dee545821469b11fb4f01d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\"></p>\n<p>That chart will explain to you why I started breaking my Apple recommendations down between long and short term. Since the price hit $130 last summer, it was pretty clear to me that except in a best-case scenario, the gains of fiscal 2021 and 2022 were already baked in.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25ce181f892fdb01ae176c551fa19ec2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\"></p>\n<p>Even Large only shows a marginal gain by the end of the fiscal year 2021, and Medium and Small are flat or down through the end of 2022. I’ve used the phrase, “if your time horizon with Apple is short, now is a good time to take profits,” very frequently in the past 8 months. I still mean it.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Stock Forecast For 2025</b></p>\n<p>Let’s zoom into each a bit, starting with the base case, Medium.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b54f0f55b2d743586b10fdcfb3c4bbd1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"></p>\n<p>I've included actual price growth for fiscal 2020 so you can see how we got here. In this view we can think of slow fair value growth from today to the end of fiscal 2022 as averaging out fiscal 2020. If we look at 2019-2022, that’s a 27% CAGR, much more in line with the growth rates in the out years of the model. The model is simply predicting that 2021 and 2022 are baked into today’s price.</p>\n<p>But then you see that the model really picks up steam on the out-years, as Apple’s free cash flow, growing at a 15% 5-year CAGR in Medium, catches up with the price. All together, that’s a 13.8% CAGR over the four and a third years of the model, with a terminal value of $222.</p>\n<p>Of course Large is larger, with an enhanced iPhone cycle from 5G adoption and a little extra boost from the AR glasses at the end of fiscal 2025.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f1cb197112556270cfdbb2d293c0082\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"></p>\n<p>To be clear, I view this scenario as plausible, but not that likely, somewhere around the 25th percentile. In this scenario, 2022 does not show the flat or negative growth rates in 2022 like the others, and this is due to the 5G adoption part of our assumptions. That’s a 20.2% CAGR, and a terminal value of $283.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25c9feb0f396334a8c46a983c8191e37\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"></p>\n<p>This model starts off very slowly, with only an 11% 2019-2022 CAGR compared to 27% for Medium, and down in 2022. But even the Small scenario picks up steam beginning in 2023. That’s an 18% CAGR from 2023-2025. But over the life of the model it is less than half that, 7.9%, a $184 terminal value.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc10da2578deb47fb83ad5c2497fa16f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"></p>\n<p>Tiny is the same as Small until the events kick in beginning fiscal 2024. 2024 price growth comes way off Small, and takes a dive in 2025. Keep in mind, we are talking about the fair value a year after the event, so the price would likely go down much further first. Anyway, this one winds up roughly at the June 11 close over four years later.</p>\n<p>So there it is: the thing I’ve been telling you for a while now, except with some modeling and pretty charts:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Except in our best case, Apple is likely to trade sideways for a while as cash flows catch up with the share price.</li>\n <li>But absent some very bad events out of Apple’s control, the long term view is still very, very bright, even if they slow down.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Seven thousand words summed up in two bullets.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock Forecast For 2025: A Slow Start, Then Strong Growth</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock Forecast For 2025: A Slow Start, Then Strong Growth\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-17 10:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435098-apple-stock-forecast-2025><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple is the products company most prepared for the future, whatever that may bring. I give you nine reasons.\nThe dangers to Apple’s long-term prospects are mostly event-based, and mostly out...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435098-apple-stock-forecast-2025\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435098-apple-stock-forecast-2025","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152604932","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is the products company most prepared for the future, whatever that may bring. I give you nine reasons.\nThe dangers to Apple’s long-term prospects are mostly event-based, and mostly out of their control.\nI lay out four scenarios and DCF models. You should treat DCF models with the skepticism they deserve.\nWith the exception of the best case, they show the stock trading sideways or down through the end of fiscal 2022, then growing fast thereafter.\n\nNikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Long-Term Apple Thesis\nI write a lot about Apple (AAPL), 15% of my articles here at Seeking Alpha since I started in 2018. Mostly, I write about what is happening now. For example, the last one was about the implications for Apple should they be forced to back off their App Store rules, whether through courts or regulation.\nAlmost a year ago, I began breaking my conclusions about Apple stock into two sections: one for investors who are into Apple for the long haul like I am, and a section for those whose time horizons are much shorter than “I hope to die with these shares.” This article is for the Die With These Shares Crowd.\nI was first an Apple shareholder in 1982, but I sold those shares when Steve Jobs sold his. Since 2005, I have been a continuous shareholder and have never sold a share. Like I said, I hope to die with them. Over the years, the reasons I remain an Apple shareholder have grown:\n\nThey have the most complete and unique tech stack in the world.\nThey have the best product development process.\nThey have the best corporate organization.\nThey are the only megacap who sees privacy and security as a differentiator and marketable feature, not as a cost-center.\nESG focus years ahead of everyone else.\nThe Apple brand\nWhile the sum of their parts is impressive, the Apple ecosystem makes it so much more.\nWhen everything is taken into account, iPhone gives a lot of value for the price.\nA cash pile and cash flows to back up their ambitions.\n\nWhat it adds up to is a company that is prepared for the future, whatever that may bring. Success in tech is notoriously hard to maintain. IBM (IBM) dominated computers and high end office equipment for 80 years until they didn’t. Sitting here today in 2021, I have a very high level of confidence that this will not be happening to Apple any time soon.\nThe Tech Stack\nOne of my favorite factoids about Apple is that despite the fact that their intangible assets would be the most of anyone, they do not list any on their balance sheet. This is where IP and brands go. We’ll get to the brand in a moment, but the core of what makes Apple so durable is their tech stack, now higher and more complete than anyone’s.\nThe most important things in the stack are at the base — the Apple chip design unit, which went from nothing to the best in the world in about a decade, and the operating systems, which at their root are all the same thing. They are the only company that designs products and the chips and operating systems that run them, though it looks like Microsoft (MSFT) would like to join them.\nChip Design\nCustom chip design is becoming more and more important. Apple was one of the first to recognize the importance of this in making products that are unique in a crowded marketplace. The first iPhone came with a Samsung ARM-based system-on-a-chip (SoC). Less than a year later, Apple bought PA Semi, a low-power SoC designer, for $278 million in cash. Other than the NeXT acquisition that brought back Steve Jobs, this was the best investment Apple ever made.\nThe first Apple-designed chip to show up in a product was the A4 in iPhone 4, only two years after the PA Semi acquisition. Quickly, the reaction went from “Apple thinks they can make a SoC?” to “Hey, these things are pretty good.” Now the A-series is widely regarded as the best smartphone SoC.\nThe A-series is the most important, but that is only the beginning. There is also the S-series for Apple Watch, H-series for headphones, W-series for wireless connectivity, U-series, which enables AirTags features, and the new M-series for Macs. Within a couple of years, all Apple devices, from AirPods to the Mac Pro will run on Apple Silicon.\nThe work they have done here is really showing up in the new M1 Macs, because we have something to compare to — the previous generation of the same model with Intel’s hardware.\nAnnotated Apple video screenshot.\nBy switching to their own silicon, Apple was able to make the same computer, but with a tablet-sized motherboard, a larger screen, and very low power requirements, while still being much faster than the Intel alternative. Already, the next version of macOS will not support some features on Intel Macs, because they lack the machine learning cores. \nThe Operating Systems\nWhen Apple was developing iPhone there was two ways to go for the operating system: build up from iPod, or shrink Mac OS X. There was an internal contest along parallel tracks, and the shrunken Mac won out. Because of this decision, all the operating systems are essentially the same thing.\nOS X came from NextStep which was the reason for the NeXT acquisition. Apple had not been able to move past what became known as Mac OS Classic with its own internal project, Copeland, and they needed help. Also, the deal came with Steve Jobs.\nNextStep was the first attempt to take a UNIX operating system and put a friendly graphical user interface on top of it. At the core is a UNIX microkernel. As the name implies, this is a small bit of software that manages the most basic functions of the software/hardware interface. Everything else is built in modular blocks of code layered on each other. Each device gets the blocks it needs, and excludes the ones it doesn’t.\nSo at root, the microkernel and the core blocks of the operating systems have a ton of overlap, and are very much the same. The original iPhone OS and OS X were so similar that even before Apple released their official iPhone software development kit, or SDK, developers were already making iPhone apps using a slightly modified Mac SDK.\nA good example is networking. All the devices share the same basic networking software, but macOS has wired connection drivers the others don’t. iOS 14 has 5G drivers the others don’t.\nThe Rest\nOn top of that rock-solid foundation sits the rest of it. The list is too long to go through entirely. This is a company that patented a pizza box which is only used in Apple’s Caffe Macs employee cafeterias. But these are the parts where we see continuous development every year.\n\nThe location/orientation sensor package. Originally for iPhone, this now includes accelerometers, gyroscopes, GPS, altimeters, and the newest additions, LiDAR and the U1 chip, which makes AirTags possible, with more coming. With this combination, Apple devices know where they are in 3D space, orientation, and where they are relative to other objects, especially ones that also have the U1 chip.\nVoice recognition.\nAR.\nOn-device machine learning. This includes continuous work on both hardware and software. The A-series and M-series SoCs come loaded with ML cores.\nAudio/video/photo. Again, both hardware and software.\nMaybe their own 5G radio chip. We’ll see.\n\nWhat This All Means For 2025\nWhat this means is that when Apple is setting out to build a new device, they begin halfway to the finish line. The basics are there already, and they get to spend their time and energy focusing on the parts that make each device unique. And as we’ll look at in the next section, they still spend more time sweating that last mile than anyone else.\nLet’s look at Apple’s current Big Idea, which is augmenting or replacing the venerable graphical user interface with a combination of AR and voice control, AKA Siri. Apple just hit a big milestone in that journey with the announcement of on-device voice recognition in iOS 15 coming this fall. This is key to their thinking in whatever they are doing with a car, and also of course in AR/VR products. According to rumors, we should see at least some aspects of both of these by the end of 2025.\nBut beyond the AR-voice package, each device will get a chip specifically designed for that device, unlike most others who will be using chips designed for a wide range of OEMs. It will overlap a lot with other Apple SoCs, but it will contain a unique combination of units chosen just for that device. When the software team is working on the operating system and apps, most of the under-the-hood work is done. They get to focus on making the unique interface they want for that product. The sensor package will come into the design of either a car or AR glasses, as will all the rest of it.\nProduct Development\nApple approaches product development differently than every other company. In the first place, they say “no” to many things, even deep into the development process, most we never get to hear about. This allows them to focus on what they do make, and make their products unique, even when competing a crowded space.\nMy favorite example here is a negative one, the ill-fated AirPower charging mat. Apple wanted to make a unique offering that was specifically designed around Apple products, but they could not pull off the dual-coil design without overheating. Instead of releasing an undifferentiated product, they killed it, even though it had been pre-announced. This sort of thing happens internally all the time. We got to see the sausage made, just this once.\nBut it goes beyond just saying “no” a lot. Apple approaches almost everything in a very slow, deliberate manner:\n\nFocus entirely on the customer experience.\nDon’t let anyone else get in between you and the customer.\nPeople often don’t know what they want until you show it to them.\nDon’t compete directly against successful incumbents, but figure out what Apple’s unique contribution is, focused on the entire ecosystem.\nDon’t release a new product or feature until you are ready to, no matter what analysts or the tech press say you should do.\nFind a way to dip your toe into the market first, gauge customer reaction, and slowly keep adding year after year.\nHave relatively few SKUs. Keep the product lines relatively simple.\nDon’t be afraid to ditch old but popular technologies.\nAs much as possible, own all the key technologies in your devices.\nHardware and software development are concurrent and work together.\nDo not worry that a new product is displacing another source of revenue.\n\nSometimes this can hurt an Apple product relative to competition. The HomePod is a good example here. Because of their relative lack of data collection, Siri will never be as capable as Alexa or Google Assistant. So when designing a “smart speaker,” Apple focused more on the speaker part, because they have handicapped themselves on the smart part. This led to an expensive device that didn’t have as much functionality as competing products. But it sounded great. This is a tradeoff they are willing to make, because security and privacy in the ecosystem is a higher level goal than having a smart speaker.\nBut as careful and deliberate as Apple is, they can also act blazingly fast when they think they need to. This letter, recently served up by one of my favorite Twitter accounts,Internal Tech Emails,kind of blew my mind.\n\nBertrand Serlet was the SVP of Software Engineering (“SWE” in the email) at the time. Scott Forstall was the lead on iOS. Steve Jobs you know. What you see here is the birth of the App Store, now worth $16 billion a year in net sales to Apple, decided in an email exchange in less than an hour.\nThe timeline here is that iPhone was released in June 2007. In September 2007, the first easily installed app store for jailbroken iPhones, Cydia, was released. It was a warning to Apple that they had to release their own App Store, along with developer tools like they had on the Mac, or risk losing control of the device. Too many people looked at this “phone” and saw a pocket computer.\nThis email exchange happened less than a month after Cydia. Serlet laid out everything the App Store was and still is in four quick bullets, made a request for a large amount of resources to pull it off (“whoever we need in SWE”), and asked for a yes-or-no decision. Jobs replied less than an hour later with an absurd timeline (it came out in March, but was announced in January), and approved a now-$16 billion a year business in a single sentence.\nMost of the time they move very slowly and deliberately, making sure everything is exactly right before release. But they can also push something out quickly if it is of strategic importance like App Store. This can also fall on its face at launch, like Apple Maps, which is why Apple prefers to move slowly, all else being equal.\nOrganization\nOne of the key foundations of Apple’s success is their amorphous org chart which promotes collaboration and prevents turf wars. On paper, there are three key technical function-based Senior VPs below CEO Tim Cook:\n\nSVP of Software Engineering, Craig Federighi.\nSVP of Hardware Engineering. This is now John Ternus, after longtime SVP of Hardware, Dan Riccio, moved over to shepherd AR/VR devices full time, underlining their importance.\nSVP of Services, Eddie Cue.\n\nThis is supplemented by the SVP of Worldwide Marketing position, now filled by Greg Joswiak, after Apple lifer Phil Schiller moved on to semi-retirement as an “Apple Fellow,” whatever that is. The Epic trial made clear that Schiller is very much still involved. Joswiak and Schiller are sort of Ministers-Without-Portfolio, who dip in on all strategic questions, and the guardians of the brand. VP of Environment, Policy and Social Initiatives, Lisa Jackson, has a growing voice in big decisions.\nBut as became apparent in a lot of the Apple corporate emails that Epic presented at trial, these people and their main lieutenants are constantly up in each other’s business, and that is by design. The walls between the SVPs are very thin, and no one gets to that position unless they understand that turf wars don’t happen at Apple. But the function-based organization sort of prevents it in the first place.\nWhen Apple decided to make iPhone, iPod was 35% of Apple’s revenue. But in meetings and email exchanges, there was no SVP of iPod to object loudly that their ox was being gored. There are many companies that would have killed iPhone because of this. Hardware, Software and Services all have big roles in all Apple products, whether it’s iPod, iPhone or anything that has followed. In that email in the previous section, Bertrand Serlet asks for whomever he needs to meet a fast timeline. That means he was pulling people off the Mac OS X team to work on the iPhone SDK and App Store, of course, in concert with Services and Hardware. Phil Schiller also had a lot to say. Again, there was no SVP of Mac to loudly object.\nWe now see this collaborative organization and culture expressed as architecture in Apple Park.\nApple Maps screenshot\nAt a cost of $4-$5 billion, Apple built a new campus entirely designed around the idea of encouraging collaboration across groups, and random encounters between people who normally would not be interacting. The parking lots are to south out of frame of that screenshot, and everyone enters and exits on those footpaths. Along the way, they have to pass by lots of other offices and groups, or go through the center courtyard, a central place to hang out.\nApple did not build this so people could work from home.\nThe Ecosystem\nBefore we talk about the sum of the parts, let’s start with the parts. These are the rankings that Apple product segments would have had in the 2021 Fortune 500 as stand-alones (by revenue)\n\niPhone at $166 billion in TTM net sales would place at number 12, between Costco (COST) and Cigna (CI).\nServices at $60 billion would place 52 between Albertsons (ACI) and Valero (VLO). That’s about a third of all Google’s revenue (number 9), and about 70% of Facebook’s revenue (number 34).\nWearables, Home, and Accessories at $35 billion would place at 89 between Deere (DE) and Abbott Labs (ABT). Apple is the largest maker of both watches and headphones now. For comparison, Swatch’s (OTCPK:SWGAF) TTM revenues were $6.3 billion.\nMac at $34 billion would place at 90 between Abbott and Northwestern Mutual. This is about a third of Dell’s (DELL) revenue (number 28).\niPad's $30 billion would be the only segment outside the Fortune 100 at number 101, between Tesla (TSLA) and Philip Morris (PM).\n\nApple consolidated comes in third by revenue behind Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN), but first in profits, 30% higher than number two Microsoft.\nOf course the ecosystem is what feeds this sales machine. Apple Watch is so popular, in part, because of its tie-in to iPhone and the suite of services, especially now with Fitness+. Apple Music as a stand-alone may not have survived without the tie in to all the rest of Apple. I could keep going on, but the success of everything rests on top of everything else.\nThe Walled Garden is a metaphor that people have used to describe the Apple family of products and services. Some, like Apple, put the emphasis on the garden. Others, like Epic, put the emphasis on the walls, like the ones in a prison. But whether people stay in the ecosystem because it’s hard to leave, or just because they like it there is a little immaterial until we get to antitrust, which we’ll talk about in a little bit. It’s a bit of both, of course, that make Apple products so sticky.\nThe foundation of this is the wide-and-tall tech stack that lets Apple be the only company that makes PCs, tablets, smartphones, smartwatches and headphones, the SoCs that run them, and also every line of code these devices ship with. These devices can seamlessly work with each other in ways the Windows/Android alternative cannot. Another one of these features is coming with the fall OS updates, Universal Control.\nEvery year at WWDC, Apple updates the software part of this, and the deep integration of services also gives Apple an advantage over competitors, which has become an antitrust focus, especially for Spotify (SPOT) in Europe.\nBut beyond that, the Apple ecosystem is entirely unique\n\nMicrosoft makes PC operating systems and software that sell well, and devices that sell poorly. They have some good consumer services like Xbox gaming, but not many. They are reportedly working on a chip for their Surface products.\nSamsung (OTC:SSNLF) makes a wide range of devices, but not operating systems (unless you count Tizen, now merging with Google's WearOS), or any notable apps or services. They design their own chips, but often use competitors’ in products.\nGoogle (GOOGL) has a very popular operating system and apps, and is the king of services, but their devices sell poorly. They make data center chips for their own use, but not for consumers.\nAmazon and Facebook (FB) are starting from the bottom-up. Both tried and failed with phones. Amazon has a fork of Android, and low-cost tablets that sell reasonably well. Amazon’s Echo products do well, Facebook’s hardware less so. Both do well with services and apps. The recent Amazon Sidewalk launch with Tile is Amazon trying to build up that ecosystem infrastructure. Amazon has a chip unit for AWS, but neither company has consumer chip design.\n\nOnly Apple has the complete package. But there are threats to the ecosystem, and I believe Apple is very likely to have to give up some control, especially with regard to App Store. By 2025 we should expect Apple’s App Store commission rate to drop, but the rest should remain very strong.\nPrivacy, Security And ESG\nI’m lumping these together, because they add up to the same thing: Apple has been able to skate to where the puck is going on important societal issues. They see these things not as costs, but marketable features that burnish the Apple brand.\nI don’t think there’s any reason for me to belabor the security and privacy comparison with Windows and especially Android. Like everyone, Apple does not have a perfect record, and we’ll talk some more in a moment about that.\nBut let’s return to that 2007 email, which is like an Apple Rosetta Stone. Serlet's first two bullets are about limits Apple is going to place on developers with the goals of “protect the user,” and “protect the networks.” Only after that does he get to what developers get access to. That’s indicative of all their thinking. Securing the user and networks is the first order priority.\nHere’s a quick list of the security and privacy enhancements they just announced at WWDC:\n\niCloud VPN at no extra cost to paid iCloud accounts.\nOn-device speech recognition.\nThird party Siri devices that do not give those third parties access to your commands. Common commands will execute without leaving the house.\nFurther support for iCloud home security video, which does image analysis on-device, and only uploads encrypted video to the cloud.\nHouse keys and state ID support in Wallet. TSA will accept digital IDs when it becomes available.\nA new App Privacy Report with details on what all apps are doing with their permissions. Google just announced something very similar for Android 12.\nAfter grimly reminding us that we will all die someday, iOS 15 allows adding of legacy contact who can access your account after you are gone.\nSecurely and privately share health data with a provider.\nProtection from email tracking pixels.\n\nThat was just what they announced this year.\nSo let’s turn it around and talk about what these things cost Apple. The biggest costs are not direct ones but opportunity costs from their relative lack of data collection. Their services suffer because of this:\n\nThe iAd ad network never got off the ground because it denied advertisers the data they were getting elsewhere.\nSimilarly, all their attempts at adding social media features have failed for the same reason.\nSiri lags Alexa and Google Assistant, and this also hurt them in the smart speaker space.\nIt is harder for them to build massive centralized AI models like Google and Facebook.\nThe engagement and targeting algorithms for App Store, News, Music, TV+, Stocks, Arcade and ads would all be better. Apple has tried to be unique here with added human curation.\nThey don’t trade user data like other credit card companies.\n\nThen there are the direct costs, which we have little insight into, but certainly stretches into the billions of dollars. Some of the key parts come under the chip design unit: the Secure Enclave and the machine learning cores. Along with the supporting software these are key units in the A and M series SoCs.\nThey currently already do a lot of work in keeping data analysis on-device, leveraging those machine learning cores, and only uploading encrypted data to the cloud using the secure enclave. But the eventual goal I believe is to have all Siri interactions happen on-device, which minimizes what Apple collects about users. As noted, they just took a major step in that direction with on-device voice recognition. To me, that was the single biggest announcement at WWDC. I thought Apple was maybe two years from announcing that.\nWhen we talk about ESG, the direct Capex costs are growing there. Apple Park is the largest LEED Platinum office building in North America. They are currently working through $4.7 billion in green bonds, building solar, wind and battery storage. Apple currently has all of Apple worldwide corporate operations carbon neutral. But the big, costly project is getting the entire supply chain to carbon neutral. They claim they will do that by 2030.\nIn 2021, this is a very effective marketing narrative, and it will only become more so over time. In 2025 these issues will resonate even more deeply.\nThe Brand\nSecurity, privacy and ESG burnish the brand, but the products are the core of it. Again, Apple does not list intangibles, but Interbrand put the value of the Apple brand at $323 billion in 2020. Amazon was number two at $201 billion. Here’s how Interbrand put it.\n\n Ultimately, Apple’s distinctiveness – or, in fact, uniqueness – isn’t a result of what the brand says, but what it does. It’s Apple’s products, technologies and stores that speak to the organisation’s philosophy of beautiful simplicity and individual empowerment – much more than any campaign could ever do. Inasmuch as many talk about the brand’s aura, Apple has consistently changed what was in people’s minds by changing what was in their hands.\n\nIt’s amazing what 25 years of making great products will do. This is important because a strong brand can buoy a company through bad weather. Apple’s brand can weather a long storm.\nThe iPhone Value Proposition\nApple products are notoriously expensive. But are they? Mac is expensive when you compare to alternatives, but iPhone turns out to be a pretty good value. To begin with, iPhone gets many years of operating system support, in contrast to Android products outside of Google’s poorly-selling Pixel. I have a friend who can afford any phone he wants, but he likes small phones, and hated Jony Ive’s rounded edges. He bought an iPhone SE in March 2016 for $399, and held on to until last December when he traded it in for an iPhone 12 mini. When he traded it in, it was running the current version, iOS 14. If he still owned it, he would be able to upgrade it to iOS 15 in the fall.\nI joke with him that he really extracted maximum value from that iPhone SE, but let’s look at what that looks like for someone in 2021 who is budget conscious. Forgetting about any trade-in subsidies:\n\n$399 iPhone SE 2nd generation base model\nPaid for with Apple Card. That gets a 3% discount on price, and 24 months of 0% interest.\nInclude AppleCare+ for product life to account for an inevitable battery replacement and unforeseeables.\nThat’s $19.91 a month for the first 24 months, and $3.29 thereafter.\nDiscount future payments by 1.75% a year for inflation.\nSince the phone is already a year old, we’ll shave a year off operating system support, so that’s 6 years.\n\nFor 6 years of worry-free ownership and operating system updates, that’s $599 in 2021 dollars. If you wanted to risk it and not get AppleCare+, it’s only $381 paid over 2 years. This is very comparable to similar offerings from Samsung,OnePlus, and Google. Only Google’s Pixel gets guaranteed OS updates beyond that first year.\nTurning to the flagship models:\n\nApple has the most expensive flagship but not by much. The Google Pixel 5 seems like a great deal to me, and I remain surprised at how poorly the Pixels have sold. Also, looking at the green bars, the iPhone 12 Pro Max looks like the best deal of the bunch.\nOnly the Pixel gets guaranteed updates beyond that first year. Apple is still supporting 5 models released in the Obama administration. But there’s a lot more that comes with iPhone that doesn’t come with any Android phone.\n\nThe best smartphone chip.\nHardware and software developed together.\nTight integration with PC, tablet, watch and wireless headphones.\nFar better malware security in App Store.\nMost new apps start on iOS, so Apple users get first crack.\nNative productivity suite.\nNative audio and video editing with surprising capability for phone apps.\nNo tracking of location and other data by Google unless you use Google services.\nConvenient service and free classes at an Apple Store near you.\n\nApple users give up a little bit of freedom, mostly in App Store, for all this, but I think it’s a tradeoff everyone understands at this point. As time wears on, it has become harder and harder for other phone manufacturers to keep up with Apple on both price and features. By 2025, it will be even harder.\nRisks To The Story\nThere are three big threats to the rosy picture I am painting. One is geopolitical, one is regulatory, and one is social.\nChina\nUS-China relations are at their lowest ebb since Mao hosted Nixon in 1972. The Biden Administration has pulled back from some of the excesses of the previous Administration, but we seem to be on a long march towards, at a minimum, a bifurcation of the technology world. I do not view this as a positive development for many reasons, but it hits Apple hard.\nApple is pretty unique in the scale of their dependence on China from both the supply side and the demand side. Let’s start on the supply side.\n\n Substantially all of the Company’s manufacturing is performed in whole or in part by outsourcing partners located primarily in Asia. A significant concentration of this manufacturing is currently performed by a small number of outsourcing partners, often in single locations.\n\n\n - Apple annual report “Risk Factors”\n\nFrom the demand side, it fluctuates, but in the current 3-year iPhone supercycle period, Apple is averaging 16.8% of net sales from Greater China, which includes Taiwan and Hong Kong.\n\nAntitrust\nI’m not going to dwell on this, since everyone is better acquainted with this threat because of the Epic trial. But there is a movement afoot to refashion antitrust law in a way that would not be favorable to Apple, with the amount of control they like to exercise over the ecosystem. This is in the US courts now, but legislative and regulatory bodies in the US and Europe are turning towards iOS, especially App Store. The threat is not open-ended like it is for Google and Facebook, as it is contained to App Store, 28% of Services net sales and 5.4% of consolidated Apple. But that second number, small as it is, has been growing quickly.\nIn contrast to China, I view some sort of reduced take from App Store as inevitable, and the only question is the scale of the reduction. Already, according to Epic trial filings, Apple’s take is probably between 25% and 26% on App Store, not 30% as it is always reported. That is going lower.\nBased on the comments in my articles on the Epic trial, I think Apple shareholders are also underestimating the probability of this happening.\nTall Poppy Syndrome\nThis is a phrase I just learned from an Australian friend. Wikipedia defines it as\n\n a cultural phenomenon of jealous people holding back or directly attacking those who are perceived to be better than the norm, \"cutting down the tall poppy\".\n\nThat’s roughly how my Aussie friend described it to me. People love a comeback story, and that was the Apple narrative for a long time. But Apple is now far too profitable for too long to be the Comeback Kid anymore. Now there seems to be an appetite in the media and society for cutting Apple down to size.\nFor example, Washington Post ran an article as I was writing this section that talked about 18 scam apps that were in the top 1000 grossing apps on the day Apple was testifying in front of the Senate about App Store.\nWashington Post screenshot\nApple needs to do better. But there is no control group. The article never asks how many scam apps they stopped that day, or how many scam apps were on the Google Play Store or other Android stores that day.Apple claims they stopped $1.5 billion in fraudulent transaction in 2020, 2.4% of all App Store transactions.\nTo be clear, the Washington Post article is claiming that Apple is not really curating App Store based on their one-day survey. The total net sales to Apple for these apps was $8.3 million before Apple axed them. Apple is a company that will have around $350 billion in net sales in fiscal 2021, and had something like $16 billion from App Store in calendar 2020. They are not sandbagging their hard-earned reputation over $8.3 million.\nThis is sometimes called the “Five Nines Problem.” Five nines is 99.999%, and is sort of the standard for “almost perfect” in a lot of tech. But tech companies like Apple, Google, Facebook, etc. operate at massive scale and they need more nines. App Store has 1.8 million apps, and five nines means 180 malicious apps get through, and maybe 10% of those wind up in the top 1000 grossers. The good news is that Apple does not need the Washington Post to tell them they need to get better at this, but it is not easy.\nThis is a more nebulous threat than the others, but the last time I felt like this was when the narrative on Microsoft turned sharply after Windows 95. That ended up in a long battle with the Department of Justice that sucked corporate focus for years.\nApple Stock Price Model: Four Scenarios\nMany of the assumptions for these models are all based off of my deep dives on Apple quarters after they report. The last of them on 2021 Q2is here.\nSo let’s take all that qualitative data, and try and stuff it through a revenue and DCF model. I recommend you be very skeptical of all models of the future, and think a lot about the underlying assumptions. Models are generally an expression of the author’s biases with math laid over it. You have the 6,000 words above if you would like to know mine.\nThe recent Tesla model from ARK Investment should stand as a cautionary tale for everyone. Anyway, I have posted Excel worksheets to GitHub with the model, and all the major assumptions are modifiable. Each scenario is a separate worksheet.\nLet’s first look at some assumptions common to all four:\n\niPhone continues to exhibit a 3-year cyclical pattern. Fiscal 2021 is the high year, so 2024 is the next one.\nServices growth comes off to some extent in all scenarios from reduced App Store growth from legal or regulatory action in the US and Europe.\nWearables, etc. remains on its strong growth path on Apple Watch, AirPods, and at least one new product category, a VR headset.\nMac and iPad return roughly to their pre-pandemic patterns. Like all PC makes, Apple saw a big surge from work-from-home.\nFiscal 2021 is half-reported, so all scenarios assume that it will complete along Apple’s average seasonal pattern from 2016-2019.\nOther assumptions are in the Excel sheets.\n\nScenarios:\n\nLarge, the most optimistic.\nMedium, my base case.\nSmall is what Apple looks like if they come off the growth rates of the last 4-6 years.\nTiny is the same as Small through 2023, and then we’re going to throw some real problems at Apple.\n\nIn Medium:\n\nWe’ll model the iPhone cycle with the average growth rates of the 2015 and 2018 cycles.\nServices growth comes off of 2016-2020 trajectory because of legal or regulatory action on App Store by 2 pp.\nThe rest, as above.\n\nLarge and Small will, respectively, add and subtract from these growth rates in Medium. In addition, Large assumes:\n\nBoost in fiscal 2022-2025 for iPhone on 5G adoption.\nApple Silicon Macs gain Apple some PC market share.\nThe AR glasses come out in the middle of fiscal 2025. To be clear, I view that as an unlikely timeline, but it does not have a large effect on the model since it comes 6 months from the end of our interval.\n\nTiny is a special event-based scenario where we will throw the two worst plausible scenarios we can at Apple. It starts with a huge reduction in App Store revenues due to antitrust action in the US and Europe at the end of fiscal 2023, and getting kicked out of China at the end of fiscal 2024. The former will be modeled as a sharp downturn in Services revenue in fiscal 2024. The China expulsion will lead to a 15% drop in top line revenue, and a decrease in products gross margin by 5 pp in 2025. I don’t view either of these as particularly likely, but this is the worst it can get.\nIs Apple Stock A Buy Now?\nJust to double up on the warning: you should treat all models of the future with skepticism, including this one.\nThis table summarizes the results. Please hit up those Excel sheets if you’d like to frisk the math, or play around with your own assumptions.\n\nAs you can see, even Small doesn’t do so badly by 2025, and Tiny ends up almost in the green, since the bad events come towards the end. If they were to come earlier, those growth rates would be lower in Tiny.\nBut the year-by-year results get to something I’ve been trying to tell Apple shareholders for almost a year now:\n\nThat chart will explain to you why I started breaking my Apple recommendations down between long and short term. Since the price hit $130 last summer, it was pretty clear to me that except in a best-case scenario, the gains of fiscal 2021 and 2022 were already baked in.\n\nEven Large only shows a marginal gain by the end of the fiscal year 2021, and Medium and Small are flat or down through the end of 2022. I’ve used the phrase, “if your time horizon with Apple is short, now is a good time to take profits,” very frequently in the past 8 months. I still mean it.\nApple Stock Forecast For 2025\nLet’s zoom into each a bit, starting with the base case, Medium.\n\nI've included actual price growth for fiscal 2020 so you can see how we got here. In this view we can think of slow fair value growth from today to the end of fiscal 2022 as averaging out fiscal 2020. If we look at 2019-2022, that’s a 27% CAGR, much more in line with the growth rates in the out years of the model. The model is simply predicting that 2021 and 2022 are baked into today’s price.\nBut then you see that the model really picks up steam on the out-years, as Apple’s free cash flow, growing at a 15% 5-year CAGR in Medium, catches up with the price. All together, that’s a 13.8% CAGR over the four and a third years of the model, with a terminal value of $222.\nOf course Large is larger, with an enhanced iPhone cycle from 5G adoption and a little extra boost from the AR glasses at the end of fiscal 2025.\n\nTo be clear, I view this scenario as plausible, but not that likely, somewhere around the 25th percentile. In this scenario, 2022 does not show the flat or negative growth rates in 2022 like the others, and this is due to the 5G adoption part of our assumptions. That’s a 20.2% CAGR, and a terminal value of $283.\n\nThis model starts off very slowly, with only an 11% 2019-2022 CAGR compared to 27% for Medium, and down in 2022. But even the Small scenario picks up steam beginning in 2023. That’s an 18% CAGR from 2023-2025. But over the life of the model it is less than half that, 7.9%, a $184 terminal value.\n\nTiny is the same as Small until the events kick in beginning fiscal 2024. 2024 price growth comes way off Small, and takes a dive in 2025. Keep in mind, we are talking about the fair value a year after the event, so the price would likely go down much further first. Anyway, this one winds up roughly at the June 11 close over four years later.\nSo there it is: the thing I’ve been telling you for a while now, except with some modeling and pretty charts:\n\nExcept in our best case, Apple is likely to trade sideways for a while as cash flows catch up with the share price.\nBut absent some very bad events out of Apple’s control, the long term view is still very, very bright, even if they slow down.\n\nSeven thousand words summed up in two bullets.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169316326,"gmtCreate":1623816888465,"gmtModify":1631884324647,"author":{"id":"3581817256198016","authorId":"3581817256198016","name":"evepek","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581817256198016","idStr":"3581817256198016"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope it opens over 10% lower tonight","listText":"Hope it opens over 10% lower tonight","text":"Hope it opens over 10% lower tonight","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169316326","repostId":"2143637047","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2143637047","pubTimestamp":1623798488,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2143637047?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 07:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Roblox Slides After Reporting Month-Over-Month Drop in Bookings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143637047","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Roblox Corp. shares fall 8% in extended trading after the video-game company said May bookings decli","content":"<p>Roblox Corp. shares fall 8% in extended trading after the video-game company said May bookings declined from the previous month.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70612b5b597a651743af5a0475e499fd\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The company estimated bookings to be between $216 million and $219 million in May, down about 11% at the midpoint from between $242 million and $245 million in April. Average bookings per daily active user also declined month over month.</p>\n<p>Truist Securities analyst Matthew Thornton said bookings look “softer than expected,” though he noted that the company has said that May metrics are typically down month over month, while June metrics are usually up.</p>\n<p>May daily active users also fell 1% from the previous month. Daily active users were 43 million in May, down from 43.3 million in April, though up 28% year over year, according to a release of the month’s key metrics.</p>\n<p>Roblox shares gained 2.3% on Tuesday. The stock has doubled since the company’s initial public offering in March.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Roblox Slides After Reporting Month-Over-Month Drop in Bookings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRoblox Slides After Reporting Month-Over-Month Drop in Bookings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-16 07:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-15/roblox-slides-after-reporting-month-over-month-drop-in-bookings?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Roblox Corp. shares fall 8% in extended trading after the video-game company said May bookings declined from the previous month.\n\nThe company estimated bookings to be between $216 million and $219 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-15/roblox-slides-after-reporting-month-over-month-drop-in-bookings?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-15/roblox-slides-after-reporting-month-over-month-drop-in-bookings?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143637047","content_text":"Roblox Corp. shares fall 8% in extended trading after the video-game company said May bookings declined from the previous month.\n\nThe company estimated bookings to be between $216 million and $219 million in May, down about 11% at the midpoint from between $242 million and $245 million in April. Average bookings per daily active user also declined month over month.\nTruist Securities analyst Matthew Thornton said bookings look “softer than expected,” though he noted that the company has said that May metrics are typically down month over month, while June metrics are usually up.\nMay daily active users also fell 1% from the previous month. Daily active users were 43 million in May, down from 43.3 million in April, though up 28% year over year, according to a release of the month’s key metrics.\nRoblox shares gained 2.3% on Tuesday. The stock has doubled since the company’s initial public offering in March.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":142,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166315932,"gmtCreate":1623991557026,"gmtModify":1634024459494,"author":{"id":"3581817256198016","authorId":"3581817256198016","name":"evepek","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581817256198016","idStr":"3581817256198016"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3581636635898281\">@pekss</a>:Vested","listText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3581636635898281\">@pekss</a>:Vested","text":"//@pekss:Vested","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166315932","repostId":"2144742925","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144742925","pubTimestamp":1623976535,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2144742925?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"1 Growth Stock That Could Be Bigger Than Apple","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144742925","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The next decade looks bright for this supercomputing company.","content":"<p>In 1999, <b>NVIDIA</b> (NASDAQ:NVDA) invented the graphics processing unit (GPU), a chip that revolutionized the gaming industry. Then in 2006, it introduced the CUDA programming model, turning GPUs into general-purpose processors. Together, these innovations transformed NVIDIA into a supercomputing company, powering its rise in the data center market.</p>\n<p>NVIDIA hasn't lost that innovative spark, and its pipeline is full of products that could be growth drivers over the coming decade. In fact, if the company executes on its massive market opportunity, I think NVIDIA could be bigger than <b>Apple</b> by 2031. Here are three reasons why.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eaf8802c7ed003335f2860d2fb148e9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\"><span>Image source: Getty Images</span></p>\n<h2>1. The data center</h2>\n<p>Currently, NVIDIA controls over 90%&nbsp;of the data center accelerator market. Over the past 12 months, its data center business generated $7.6 billion in revenue, up 117%. But management sees a much larger market opportunity -- which could generate $100 billion by 2024.</p>\n<p>To that end, NVIDIA recently launched the DGX SuperPOD, a turnkey solution for enterprise artificial intelligence (AI). This cloud-native supercomputer simplifies AI, delivering in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> platform all of the resources (i.e., hardware and software) clients need to build and deploy AI applications.</p>\n<p>Likewise, the Bluefield-3 data processing unit (DPU) is a new chip designed to accelerate and secure data center infrastructure. Specifically, DPUs off-load services like networking, storage, and security, boosting the performance of central processing units (CPU).</p>\n<p>Finally, NVIDIA recently announced the Grace CPU. Set to launch in 2023, this ARM-based processor will accelerate AI workloads by a factor of 10. Moreover, alongside the DPU and GPU, it will make NVIDIA a three-chip company. CEO Jensen Huang believes this vertical integration will be a significant advantage, allowing NVIDIA to \"re-architect the data center to advance AI.\"</p>\n<h2><b>2. Autonomous vehicles</b></h2>\n<p>The NVIDIA DRIVE platform is designed to power autonomous vehicles (AVs). It combines in-car hardware with AI software, allowing vehicles to see, think, and move safely through their environments. In a recent report from advisory firm Navigant Research, NVIDIA DRIVE ranked as the No. 1 AV compute platform on the market.</p>\n<p>The brains behind this system is NVIDIA Orin, a supercomputer that delivers 254 TOPS of performance, meaning it can perform 254 trillion operations per second. By comparison, the latest chip from <b>Intel</b>'s&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MBLY\">Mobileye</a> -- the No. 2 player in Navigant's report -- delivers just 24 TOPS.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d24136b7828e9c57db066423f43bfd7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"525\"><span>The NVIDIA Orin. Image source: NVIDIA.</span></p>\n<p>While NVIDIA Orin won't ship until 2022, automakers like <b>NIO</b> &nbsp;and <b>Volvo</b> have already selected NVIDIA DRIVE to power their autonomous fleets. As a result, NVIDIA is set to recognize $8 billion in automotive revenue over the next six years. But that small figure doesn't scratch the surface of its long-term potential.</p>\n<p>Management believes the AV platform market will reach $25 billion by 2025. Given its competitive edge, NVIDIA could capture the lion's share of that figure. And if that happens, automotive sales could become a third major revenue stream for NVIDIA, supplementing its gaming and data center businesses.</p>\n<h2><b>3. NVIDIA Omniverse</b></h2>\n<p>This summer, NVIDIA will launch Omniverse, a platform that allows clients to build 3D simulations in real time. It connects industry-leading design tools from partners like <b>Autodesk</b> and <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a></b>, enabling collaboration in a shared virtual space. This is a big deal for three reasons.</p>\n<p>First, Omniverse will accelerate AI. NVIDIA DRIVE Sim&nbsp;is an Omniverse-powered application that allows clients to generate synthetic driving data. That data can then be used in the real world to train AI models for autonomous vehicles.</p>\n<p>Second, Omniverse is a subscription product. That's noteworthy because semiconductor sales tend to be cyclical, which can cause lumpy revenue growth. But subscription sales are typically recurring in nature, meaning Omniverse could help NVIDIA grow its top line more consistently.</p>\n<p>Third, NVIDIA believes this is a stepping-stone to the Metaverse. If you're unfamiliar with the term, the idea comes from science fiction. The Metaverse refers to a persistent virtual world, a digital reality where people can interact and share experiences.</p>\n<p>Here's the big picture: The virtual reality market will hit $69 billion by 2028, according to Grand View Research. And so far, NVIDIA Omniverse is gaining traction rapidly. During the three-month beta testing period, it was downloaded by over 17,000 users.</p>\n<h2>A final word</h2>\n<p>To summarize, NVIDIA benefits from a solid competitive position and a massive market opportunity. Both advantages should be growth drivers over the coming decade. But will they be enough to eclipse Apple's current market cap of $2.1 trillion?</p>\n<p>No one knows the future, but I think it's possible. Since fiscal 2016 (ended Jan. 31, 2016), NVIDIA's revenue has grown at 29% per year. If it can maintain an annual growth rate of just 17% over the next decade (assuming its price-to-sales ratio remains unchanged), NVIDIA's market cap would reach $2.2 trillion in 2031.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>1 Growth Stock That Could Be Bigger Than Apple</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n1 Growth Stock That Could Be Bigger Than Apple\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 08:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/17/1-growth-stock-that-could-be-bigger-than-apple/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In 1999, NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) invented the graphics processing unit (GPU), a chip that revolutionized the gaming industry. Then in 2006, it introduced the CUDA programming model, turning GPUs into ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/17/1-growth-stock-that-could-be-bigger-than-apple/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/17/1-growth-stock-that-could-be-bigger-than-apple/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144742925","content_text":"In 1999, NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) invented the graphics processing unit (GPU), a chip that revolutionized the gaming industry. Then in 2006, it introduced the CUDA programming model, turning GPUs into general-purpose processors. Together, these innovations transformed NVIDIA into a supercomputing company, powering its rise in the data center market.\nNVIDIA hasn't lost that innovative spark, and its pipeline is full of products that could be growth drivers over the coming decade. In fact, if the company executes on its massive market opportunity, I think NVIDIA could be bigger than Apple by 2031. Here are three reasons why.\nImage source: Getty Images\n1. The data center\nCurrently, NVIDIA controls over 90% of the data center accelerator market. Over the past 12 months, its data center business generated $7.6 billion in revenue, up 117%. But management sees a much larger market opportunity -- which could generate $100 billion by 2024.\nTo that end, NVIDIA recently launched the DGX SuperPOD, a turnkey solution for enterprise artificial intelligence (AI). This cloud-native supercomputer simplifies AI, delivering in one platform all of the resources (i.e., hardware and software) clients need to build and deploy AI applications.\nLikewise, the Bluefield-3 data processing unit (DPU) is a new chip designed to accelerate and secure data center infrastructure. Specifically, DPUs off-load services like networking, storage, and security, boosting the performance of central processing units (CPU).\nFinally, NVIDIA recently announced the Grace CPU. Set to launch in 2023, this ARM-based processor will accelerate AI workloads by a factor of 10. Moreover, alongside the DPU and GPU, it will make NVIDIA a three-chip company. CEO Jensen Huang believes this vertical integration will be a significant advantage, allowing NVIDIA to \"re-architect the data center to advance AI.\"\n2. Autonomous vehicles\nThe NVIDIA DRIVE platform is designed to power autonomous vehicles (AVs). It combines in-car hardware with AI software, allowing vehicles to see, think, and move safely through their environments. In a recent report from advisory firm Navigant Research, NVIDIA DRIVE ranked as the No. 1 AV compute platform on the market.\nThe brains behind this system is NVIDIA Orin, a supercomputer that delivers 254 TOPS of performance, meaning it can perform 254 trillion operations per second. By comparison, the latest chip from Intel's Mobileye -- the No. 2 player in Navigant's report -- delivers just 24 TOPS.\nThe NVIDIA Orin. Image source: NVIDIA.\nWhile NVIDIA Orin won't ship until 2022, automakers like NIO  and Volvo have already selected NVIDIA DRIVE to power their autonomous fleets. As a result, NVIDIA is set to recognize $8 billion in automotive revenue over the next six years. But that small figure doesn't scratch the surface of its long-term potential.\nManagement believes the AV platform market will reach $25 billion by 2025. Given its competitive edge, NVIDIA could capture the lion's share of that figure. And if that happens, automotive sales could become a third major revenue stream for NVIDIA, supplementing its gaming and data center businesses.\n3. NVIDIA Omniverse\nThis summer, NVIDIA will launch Omniverse, a platform that allows clients to build 3D simulations in real time. It connects industry-leading design tools from partners like Autodesk and Adobe, enabling collaboration in a shared virtual space. This is a big deal for three reasons.\nFirst, Omniverse will accelerate AI. NVIDIA DRIVE Sim is an Omniverse-powered application that allows clients to generate synthetic driving data. That data can then be used in the real world to train AI models for autonomous vehicles.\nSecond, Omniverse is a subscription product. That's noteworthy because semiconductor sales tend to be cyclical, which can cause lumpy revenue growth. But subscription sales are typically recurring in nature, meaning Omniverse could help NVIDIA grow its top line more consistently.\nThird, NVIDIA believes this is a stepping-stone to the Metaverse. If you're unfamiliar with the term, the idea comes from science fiction. The Metaverse refers to a persistent virtual world, a digital reality where people can interact and share experiences.\nHere's the big picture: The virtual reality market will hit $69 billion by 2028, according to Grand View Research. And so far, NVIDIA Omniverse is gaining traction rapidly. During the three-month beta testing period, it was downloaded by over 17,000 users.\nA final word\nTo summarize, NVIDIA benefits from a solid competitive position and a massive market opportunity. Both advantages should be growth drivers over the coming decade. But will they be enough to eclipse Apple's current market cap of $2.1 trillion?\nNo one knows the future, but I think it's possible. Since fiscal 2016 (ended Jan. 31, 2016), NVIDIA's revenue has grown at 29% per year. If it can maintain an annual growth rate of just 17% over the next decade (assuming its price-to-sales ratio remains unchanged), NVIDIA's market cap would reach $2.2 trillion in 2031.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166945544,"gmtCreate":1623989791788,"gmtModify":1634024503240,"author":{"id":"3581817256198016","authorId":"3581817256198016","name":"evepek","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581817256198016","idStr":"3581817256198016"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can hold both","listText":"Can hold both","text":"Can hold both","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166945544","repostId":"1197160756","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}