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2021-04-20

Why I commented already, but my 10 coins not activated?

Wall Street slips off record highs, Tesla drops after fatal crash

2021-04-20

Interesting

Reflation Trade Remains a Good Bet for Now. Try Banks, Small-Caps, and Cyclicals

2021-04-20

Comment to my post leh

Reflation Trade Remains a Good Bet for Now. Try Banks, Small-Caps, and Cyclicals

2021-04-20

Will monitor

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Try Banks, Small-Caps, and Cyclicals","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116084515","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Economic growth forecasts are far from peaking. Is the same true for corporate earnings?The Commerce","content":"<p>Economic growth forecasts are far from peaking. Is the same true for corporate earnings?</p><p>The Commerce Department last Thursday reported that retail sales rose to a record seasonally adjusted $7.4 trillion in March. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research points out that such sales are up 50% since bottoming last April while the 12-month moving average for the series is also at a record level.</p><p>Companies across the retail sector are benefiting from the latest round of stimulus checks to households. “Americans have been going on a supermarket sweep thanks to the three rounds of pandemic relief checks,” Yardeni says, estimating that about 250 million Americans have received checks that add up to roughly $800 billion in cash available for sweeping through supermarkets, stores, and shopping malls.</p><p>On the heels of the strong retail sales report, economists have been taking 2021 gross domestic product forecasts higher. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model’s first-quarter GDP estimate is now a seasonally adjusted 8.3%, up from 6% before the March retail sales data.</p><p>As Sean Darby, global equities strategist at Jefferies puts it, 2021-22 economic growth will resemble a 100-meter relay race, with the baton passing from China to the U.S. and then the U.K., Japan and Europe sprinting together. In that respect, he says, the S&amp;P 500 will continue to benefit from the theme of global reflation well into the end of the year.</p><p>In addition to extraordinary fiscal and monetary policy and rising Covid-19 vaccination numbers alongside falling daily new cases, Darby points to depleted business stockpiles as rationale for an ongoing acceleration in U.S. economic activity. “U.S. 2021 GDP forecasts are far from peaking,” he says, with low inventories and supply-chain issues holding back some fire—meaning the U.S. recovery is understated given latent demand.</p><p>As such, Darby predicts roughly 30% earnings growth for theS&amp;P 500this year versus last. Some forecasters are even more bullish. AtMorgan Stanley,for example, strategists’ base-case for 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings is $193 a share versus Darby’s $180.</p><p>But while broad economic growth may continue to boom for a while, Darby suggests the same may not be so true for corporate earnings. In particular, investors should consider two underappreciated risks.</p><p>“The V-shape earnings growth is coming to a summit,” he says. “What does concern us is the possibility of peak margins given the ferocity of input costs and the growing likelihood of changes in the corporate tax rate.”</p><p>On the first point, input costs, the 4.2% year-over-year gain in the March producer-price index was the biggest in 47 years. Survey data reveal a huge mismatch between producers’ inventory levels and incoming orders and backlogs, Morgan Stanley notes, while the latest small-business survey by the National Federation of Independent Businesses shows a record number of firms plan to raise prices.</p><p>That feedback loop onto corporate profit margins, to the extent companies eat higher input prices instead of immediately passing them onto their customers, may undermine first-quarter&nbsp; earnings (the reporting season that is currently underway) as well as second-quarter earnings, Darby says.</p><p>Meanwhile, the Biden administration has proposed raising the corporate tax rate to 28%. That’s down from the 35% before 2017 but above the current 21% rate. In addition, Biden’s plan would lift the minimum tax on foreign profits of U.S. companies to 21% from 10.5%.&nbsp; Those changes and others would add up to $2 trillion in corporate tax increases over 15 years to pay for his infrastructure plan.</p><p>What’s the upshot for investors? Putting all that together, Darby says investors should stick with the so-called reflation trade, or the bet that a quickly improving economy would benefit riskiest assets most, such as small-cap stocks over large-caps. Rising growth and inflation expectations should lead to a steeper yield curve, to the benefit of banks and consumer finance companies. Last, Darby says he remains bullish on cyclical stocks (those most closely tied to economic health, such as retail and restaurants).</p><p>Such stocks, of course, have had good runs so far this year. TheFinancial Select Sector SPDR Fund(ticker: XLF) andConsumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLY) are each up 20% and 11% year-to-date, respectively, far outpacing the 3% rise inConsumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLP). That’s as theRussell 2000is up 13% versus theS&amp;P 500’s10% gain this year.</p><p>In light of expectations for continued economic momentum and given where the downside risks of rising input prices and taxes would most heavily fall, those segments of the stock market seem to remain good bets.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reflation Trade Remains a Good Bet for Now. 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Try Banks, Small-Caps, and Cyclicals\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-20 11:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/reflation-trade-remains-a-good-bet-for-now-try-banks-small-caps-and-cyclicals-51618861036?mod=newsviewer_click><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Economic growth forecasts are far from peaking. Is the same true for corporate earnings?The Commerce Department last Thursday reported that retail sales rose to a record seasonally adjusted $7.4 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/reflation-trade-remains-a-good-bet-for-now-try-banks-small-caps-and-cyclicals-51618861036?mod=newsviewer_click\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/reflation-trade-remains-a-good-bet-for-now-try-banks-small-caps-and-cyclicals-51618861036?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1116084515","content_text":"Economic growth forecasts are far from peaking. Is the same true for corporate earnings?The Commerce Department last Thursday reported that retail sales rose to a record seasonally adjusted $7.4 trillion in March. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research points out that such sales are up 50% since bottoming last April while the 12-month moving average for the series is also at a record level.Companies across the retail sector are benefiting from the latest round of stimulus checks to households. “Americans have been going on a supermarket sweep thanks to the three rounds of pandemic relief checks,” Yardeni says, estimating that about 250 million Americans have received checks that add up to roughly $800 billion in cash available for sweeping through supermarkets, stores, and shopping malls.On the heels of the strong retail sales report, economists have been taking 2021 gross domestic product forecasts higher. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model’s first-quarter GDP estimate is now a seasonally adjusted 8.3%, up from 6% before the March retail sales data.As Sean Darby, global equities strategist at Jefferies puts it, 2021-22 economic growth will resemble a 100-meter relay race, with the baton passing from China to the U.S. and then the U.K., Japan and Europe sprinting together. In that respect, he says, the S&P 500 will continue to benefit from the theme of global reflation well into the end of the year.In addition to extraordinary fiscal and monetary policy and rising Covid-19 vaccination numbers alongside falling daily new cases, Darby points to depleted business stockpiles as rationale for an ongoing acceleration in U.S. economic activity. “U.S. 2021 GDP forecasts are far from peaking,” he says, with low inventories and supply-chain issues holding back some fire—meaning the U.S. recovery is understated given latent demand.As such, Darby predicts roughly 30% earnings growth for theS&P 500this year versus last. Some forecasters are even more bullish. AtMorgan Stanley,for example, strategists’ base-case for 2021 S&P 500 earnings is $193 a share versus Darby’s $180.But while broad economic growth may continue to boom for a while, Darby suggests the same may not be so true for corporate earnings. In particular, investors should consider two underappreciated risks.“The V-shape earnings growth is coming to a summit,” he says. “What does concern us is the possibility of peak margins given the ferocity of input costs and the growing likelihood of changes in the corporate tax rate.”On the first point, input costs, the 4.2% year-over-year gain in the March producer-price index was the biggest in 47 years. Survey data reveal a huge mismatch between producers’ inventory levels and incoming orders and backlogs, Morgan Stanley notes, while the latest small-business survey by the National Federation of Independent Businesses shows a record number of firms plan to raise prices.That feedback loop onto corporate profit margins, to the extent companies eat higher input prices instead of immediately passing them onto their customers, may undermine first-quarter  earnings (the reporting season that is currently underway) as well as second-quarter earnings, Darby says.Meanwhile, the Biden administration has proposed raising the corporate tax rate to 28%. That’s down from the 35% before 2017 but above the current 21% rate. In addition, Biden’s plan would lift the minimum tax on foreign profits of U.S. companies to 21% from 10.5%.  Those changes and others would add up to $2 trillion in corporate tax increases over 15 years to pay for his infrastructure plan.What’s the upshot for investors? Putting all that together, Darby says investors should stick with the so-called reflation trade, or the bet that a quickly improving economy would benefit riskiest assets most, such as small-cap stocks over large-caps. Rising growth and inflation expectations should lead to a steeper yield curve, to the benefit of banks and consumer finance companies. Last, Darby says he remains bullish on cyclical stocks (those most closely tied to economic health, such as retail and restaurants).Such stocks, of course, have had good runs so far this year. TheFinancial Select Sector SPDR Fund(ticker: XLF) andConsumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLY) are each up 20% and 11% year-to-date, respectively, far outpacing the 3% rise inConsumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLP). That’s as theRussell 2000is up 13% versus theS&P 500’s10% gain this year.In light of expectations for continued economic momentum and given where the downside risks of rising input prices and taxes would most heavily fall, those segments of the stock market seem to remain good bets.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":279,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":371050250,"gmtCreate":1618894695370,"gmtModify":1634290070265,"author":{"id":"3581763231763695","authorId":"3581763231763695","name":"1528b3bd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581763231763695","authorIdStr":"3581763231763695"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why I commented already, but my 10 coins not activated?","listText":"Why I commented already, but my 10 coins not activated?","text":"Why I commented already, but my 10 coins not activated?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371050250","repostId":"2128689062","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2128689062","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1618862511,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2128689062?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-20 04:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street slips off record highs, Tesla drops after fatal crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2128689062","media":"Reuters","summary":"Tesla falls after fatal crash, bitcoin slumpsGameStop shares jump as CEO exitsCoca-Cola rises as revenue beats estimates. NEW YORK, April 19  - U.S. stocks closed lower on Monday, slipping from last week's record levels, as investors awaited guidance from first-quarter earnings to justify high valuations, while Tesla Inc    shares fell after a fatal car crash.The electric-car maker fell after a Tesla vehicle believed to be operating without anyone in the driver's seat crashed into a tree on Satu","content":"<ul><li>Tesla falls after fatal crash, bitcoin slumps</li><li>GameStop shares jump as CEO exits</li><li>Coca-Cola rises as revenue beats estimates</li></ul><p>NEW YORK, April 19 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks closed lower on Monday, slipping from last week's record levels, as investors awaited guidance from first-quarter earnings to justify high valuations, while Tesla Inc    shares fell after a fatal car crash.</p><p>The electric-car maker fell after a Tesla vehicle believed to be operating without anyone in the driver's seat crashed into a tree on Saturday north of Houston, killing two occupants.</p><p>The stock was the biggest drag on the S&amp;P 500    and Nasdaq Composite Index   . An 8.4% drop over the weekend in bitcoin   , in which Tesla has an investment, also weighed on its share price.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 was mostly lower, with Microsoft Corp   , Amazon.com Inc    and Nvidia Corp    also weighing on the benchmark index as analysts await results this week and next that form the bulk of earnings season.</p><p>Corporate outlooks should indicate to what degree the rally from last year's lows can continue. Analysts expect first-quarter earnings to have grown 30.9% from a year ago, according to Refinitiv IBES data.</p><p>The U.S. economy is poised to boom as consumers hold $2 trillion in savings in excess of what they held before the pandemic, said Doug Peta, chief U.S. investment strategist at BCA Research, adding markets are in pause mode.</p><p>\"If indeed we do keep grinding higher that would be healthy, that would suggest that the grinding higher is sustainable,\" Peta said. \"The pullbacks along the way are healthy.\"</p><p>Nvidia fell after the UK government said it would look into the national security implications of Nvidia's purchase of British chip designer <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARMH\">ARM Holdings</a>, raising a question mark over the $40 billion deal.</p><p>Coca-Cola Co rose after the beverage maker trounced estimates for quarterly profit and revenue, benefiting from the easing of pandemic curbs and wide vaccine rollouts.</p><p>International Business Machines Corp   , another blue-chip company, slipped ahead of its results due after the market close.</p><p>\"The market has had a huge jump to the upside so it needs to take a little bit of rest,\" said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.</p><p>\"For now it's just a little bit of profit taking as traders await results from big tech names on Wall Street.\"</p><p>Unofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average    fell 0.35% to end at 34,082.44 points, while the S&amp;P 500    lost 0.52% to 4,163.64.</p><p>The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.98% to 13,914.77.</p><p>A recent retreat in benchmark 10-year Treasury yields&nbsp;from 14-month highs has helped high-flying technology stocks to rebound, while strong economic data has lifted the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow to record levels.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 has gained the past four weeks, its longest winning streak since August 2020.</p><p>GameStop Corp    jumped on the announcement of its chief executive's resignation.</p><p>Crypto stocks including miners Riot Blockchain    and Marathon Digital    each slumped as bitcoin took a hammering.</p><p>Harley-Davidson Inc    jumped after the motorcycle maker raised it full-year forecast for sales growth.</p><p>(Reporting by Shivani Kumaresan and Medha Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta, Bernard Orr and Richard Chang)</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street slips off record highs, Tesla drops after fatal crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street slips off record highs, Tesla drops after fatal crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-20 04:01</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<ul><li>Tesla falls after fatal crash, bitcoin slumps</li><li>GameStop shares jump as CEO exits</li><li>Coca-Cola rises as revenue beats estimates</li></ul><p>NEW YORK, April 19 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks closed lower on Monday, slipping from last week's record levels, as investors awaited guidance from first-quarter earnings to justify high valuations, while Tesla Inc    shares fell after a fatal car crash.</p><p>The electric-car maker fell after a Tesla vehicle believed to be operating without anyone in the driver's seat crashed into a tree on Saturday north of Houston, killing two occupants.</p><p>The stock was the biggest drag on the S&amp;P 500    and Nasdaq Composite Index   . An 8.4% drop over the weekend in bitcoin   , in which Tesla has an investment, also weighed on its share price.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 was mostly lower, with Microsoft Corp   , Amazon.com Inc    and Nvidia Corp    also weighing on the benchmark index as analysts await results this week and next that form the bulk of earnings season.</p><p>Corporate outlooks should indicate to what degree the rally from last year's lows can continue. Analysts expect first-quarter earnings to have grown 30.9% from a year ago, according to Refinitiv IBES data.</p><p>The U.S. economy is poised to boom as consumers hold $2 trillion in savings in excess of what they held before the pandemic, said Doug Peta, chief U.S. investment strategist at BCA Research, adding markets are in pause mode.</p><p>\"If indeed we do keep grinding higher that would be healthy, that would suggest that the grinding higher is sustainable,\" Peta said. \"The pullbacks along the way are healthy.\"</p><p>Nvidia fell after the UK government said it would look into the national security implications of Nvidia's purchase of British chip designer <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARMH\">ARM Holdings</a>, raising a question mark over the $40 billion deal.</p><p>Coca-Cola Co rose after the beverage maker trounced estimates for quarterly profit and revenue, benefiting from the easing of pandemic curbs and wide vaccine rollouts.</p><p>International Business Machines Corp   , another blue-chip company, slipped ahead of its results due after the market close.</p><p>\"The market has had a huge jump to the upside so it needs to take a little bit of rest,\" said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.</p><p>\"For now it's just a little bit of profit taking as traders await results from big tech names on Wall Street.\"</p><p>Unofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average    fell 0.35% to end at 34,082.44 points, while the S&amp;P 500    lost 0.52% to 4,163.64.</p><p>The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.98% to 13,914.77.</p><p>A recent retreat in benchmark 10-year Treasury yields&nbsp;from 14-month highs has helped high-flying technology stocks to rebound, while strong economic data has lifted the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow to record levels.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 has gained the past four weeks, its longest winning streak since August 2020.</p><p>GameStop Corp    jumped on the announcement of its chief executive's resignation.</p><p>Crypto stocks including miners Riot Blockchain    and Marathon Digital    each slumped as bitcoin took a hammering.</p><p>Harley-Davidson Inc    jumped after the motorcycle maker raised it full-year forecast for sales growth.</p><p>(Reporting by Shivani Kumaresan and Medha Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta, Bernard Orr and Richard Chang)</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"KO":"可口可乐","MSFT":"微软","SLB":"斯伦贝谢",".DJI":"道琼斯","NFLX":"奈飞","GME":"游戏驿站",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IBM":"IBM","MARA":"MARA Holdings","RIOT":"Riot Platforms","AMZN":"亚马逊","TSLA":"特斯拉","JNJ":"强生","INTC":"英特尔","HON":"霍尼韦尔",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","NVDA":"英伟达","HOG":"哈雷戴维森"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2128689062","content_text":"Tesla falls after fatal crash, bitcoin slumpsGameStop shares jump as CEO exitsCoca-Cola rises as revenue beats estimatesNEW YORK, April 19 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks closed lower on Monday, slipping from last week's record levels, as investors awaited guidance from first-quarter earnings to justify high valuations, while Tesla Inc    shares fell after a fatal car crash.The electric-car maker fell after a Tesla vehicle believed to be operating without anyone in the driver's seat crashed into a tree on Saturday north of Houston, killing two occupants.The stock was the biggest drag on the S&P 500    and Nasdaq Composite Index   . An 8.4% drop over the weekend in bitcoin   , in which Tesla has an investment, also weighed on its share price.The S&P 500 was mostly lower, with Microsoft Corp   , Amazon.com Inc    and Nvidia Corp    also weighing on the benchmark index as analysts await results this week and next that form the bulk of earnings season.Corporate outlooks should indicate to what degree the rally from last year's lows can continue. Analysts expect first-quarter earnings to have grown 30.9% from a year ago, according to Refinitiv IBES data.The U.S. economy is poised to boom as consumers hold $2 trillion in savings in excess of what they held before the pandemic, said Doug Peta, chief U.S. investment strategist at BCA Research, adding markets are in pause mode.\"If indeed we do keep grinding higher that would be healthy, that would suggest that the grinding higher is sustainable,\" Peta said. \"The pullbacks along the way are healthy.\"Nvidia fell after the UK government said it would look into the national security implications of Nvidia's purchase of British chip designer ARM Holdings, raising a question mark over the $40 billion deal.Coca-Cola Co rose after the beverage maker trounced estimates for quarterly profit and revenue, benefiting from the easing of pandemic curbs and wide vaccine rollouts.International Business Machines Corp   , another blue-chip company, slipped ahead of its results due after the market close.\"The market has had a huge jump to the upside so it needs to take a little bit of rest,\" said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.\"For now it's just a little bit of profit taking as traders await results from big tech names on Wall Street.\"Unofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average    fell 0.35% to end at 34,082.44 points, while the S&P 500    lost 0.52% to 4,163.64.The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.98% to 13,914.77.A recent retreat in benchmark 10-year Treasury yields from 14-month highs has helped high-flying technology stocks to rebound, while strong economic data has lifted the S&P 500 and the Dow to record levels.The S&P 500 has gained the past four weeks, its longest winning streak since August 2020.GameStop Corp    jumped on the announcement of its chief executive's resignation.Crypto stocks including miners Riot Blockchain    and Marathon Digital    each slumped as bitcoin took a hammering.Harley-Davidson Inc    jumped after the motorcycle maker raised it full-year forecast for sales growth.(Reporting by Shivani Kumaresan and Medha Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta, Bernard Orr and Richard Chang)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":371038945,"gmtCreate":1618890761887,"gmtModify":1634290103190,"author":{"id":"3581763231763695","authorId":"3581763231763695","name":"1528b3bd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581763231763695","authorIdStr":"3581763231763695"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371038945","repostId":"1116084515","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116084515","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618889698,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116084515?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-20 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Reflation Trade Remains a Good Bet for Now. Try Banks, Small-Caps, and Cyclicals","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116084515","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Economic growth forecasts are far from peaking. Is the same true for corporate earnings?The Commerce","content":"<p>Economic growth forecasts are far from peaking. Is the same true for corporate earnings?</p><p>The Commerce Department last Thursday reported that retail sales rose to a record seasonally adjusted $7.4 trillion in March. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research points out that such sales are up 50% since bottoming last April while the 12-month moving average for the series is also at a record level.</p><p>Companies across the retail sector are benefiting from the latest round of stimulus checks to households. “Americans have been going on a supermarket sweep thanks to the three rounds of pandemic relief checks,” Yardeni says, estimating that about 250 million Americans have received checks that add up to roughly $800 billion in cash available for sweeping through supermarkets, stores, and shopping malls.</p><p>On the heels of the strong retail sales report, economists have been taking 2021 gross domestic product forecasts higher. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model’s first-quarter GDP estimate is now a seasonally adjusted 8.3%, up from 6% before the March retail sales data.</p><p>As Sean Darby, global equities strategist at Jefferies puts it, 2021-22 economic growth will resemble a 100-meter relay race, with the baton passing from China to the U.S. and then the U.K., Japan and Europe sprinting together. In that respect, he says, the S&amp;P 500 will continue to benefit from the theme of global reflation well into the end of the year.</p><p>In addition to extraordinary fiscal and monetary policy and rising Covid-19 vaccination numbers alongside falling daily new cases, Darby points to depleted business stockpiles as rationale for an ongoing acceleration in U.S. economic activity. “U.S. 2021 GDP forecasts are far from peaking,” he says, with low inventories and supply-chain issues holding back some fire—meaning the U.S. recovery is understated given latent demand.</p><p>As such, Darby predicts roughly 30% earnings growth for theS&amp;P 500this year versus last. Some forecasters are even more bullish. AtMorgan Stanley,for example, strategists’ base-case for 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings is $193 a share versus Darby’s $180.</p><p>But while broad economic growth may continue to boom for a while, Darby suggests the same may not be so true for corporate earnings. In particular, investors should consider two underappreciated risks.</p><p>“The V-shape earnings growth is coming to a summit,” he says. “What does concern us is the possibility of peak margins given the ferocity of input costs and the growing likelihood of changes in the corporate tax rate.”</p><p>On the first point, input costs, the 4.2% year-over-year gain in the March producer-price index was the biggest in 47 years. Survey data reveal a huge mismatch between producers’ inventory levels and incoming orders and backlogs, Morgan Stanley notes, while the latest small-business survey by the National Federation of Independent Businesses shows a record number of firms plan to raise prices.</p><p>That feedback loop onto corporate profit margins, to the extent companies eat higher input prices instead of immediately passing them onto their customers, may undermine first-quarter&nbsp; earnings (the reporting season that is currently underway) as well as second-quarter earnings, Darby says.</p><p>Meanwhile, the Biden administration has proposed raising the corporate tax rate to 28%. That’s down from the 35% before 2017 but above the current 21% rate. In addition, Biden’s plan would lift the minimum tax on foreign profits of U.S. companies to 21% from 10.5%.&nbsp; Those changes and others would add up to $2 trillion in corporate tax increases over 15 years to pay for his infrastructure plan.</p><p>What’s the upshot for investors? Putting all that together, Darby says investors should stick with the so-called reflation trade, or the bet that a quickly improving economy would benefit riskiest assets most, such as small-cap stocks over large-caps. Rising growth and inflation expectations should lead to a steeper yield curve, to the benefit of banks and consumer finance companies. Last, Darby says he remains bullish on cyclical stocks (those most closely tied to economic health, such as retail and restaurants).</p><p>Such stocks, of course, have had good runs so far this year. TheFinancial Select Sector SPDR Fund(ticker: XLF) andConsumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLY) are each up 20% and 11% year-to-date, respectively, far outpacing the 3% rise inConsumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLP). That’s as theRussell 2000is up 13% versus theS&amp;P 500’s10% gain this year.</p><p>In light of expectations for continued economic momentum and given where the downside risks of rising input prices and taxes would most heavily fall, those segments of the stock market seem to remain good bets.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reflation Trade Remains a Good Bet for Now. Try Banks, Small-Caps, and Cyclicals</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReflation Trade Remains a Good Bet for Now. Try Banks, Small-Caps, and Cyclicals\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-20 11:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/reflation-trade-remains-a-good-bet-for-now-try-banks-small-caps-and-cyclicals-51618861036?mod=newsviewer_click><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Economic growth forecasts are far from peaking. Is the same true for corporate earnings?The Commerce Department last Thursday reported that retail sales rose to a record seasonally adjusted $7.4 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/reflation-trade-remains-a-good-bet-for-now-try-banks-small-caps-and-cyclicals-51618861036?mod=newsviewer_click\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/reflation-trade-remains-a-good-bet-for-now-try-banks-small-caps-and-cyclicals-51618861036?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1116084515","content_text":"Economic growth forecasts are far from peaking. Is the same true for corporate earnings?The Commerce Department last Thursday reported that retail sales rose to a record seasonally adjusted $7.4 trillion in March. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research points out that such sales are up 50% since bottoming last April while the 12-month moving average for the series is also at a record level.Companies across the retail sector are benefiting from the latest round of stimulus checks to households. “Americans have been going on a supermarket sweep thanks to the three rounds of pandemic relief checks,” Yardeni says, estimating that about 250 million Americans have received checks that add up to roughly $800 billion in cash available for sweeping through supermarkets, stores, and shopping malls.On the heels of the strong retail sales report, economists have been taking 2021 gross domestic product forecasts higher. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model’s first-quarter GDP estimate is now a seasonally adjusted 8.3%, up from 6% before the March retail sales data.As Sean Darby, global equities strategist at Jefferies puts it, 2021-22 economic growth will resemble a 100-meter relay race, with the baton passing from China to the U.S. and then the U.K., Japan and Europe sprinting together. In that respect, he says, the S&P 500 will continue to benefit from the theme of global reflation well into the end of the year.In addition to extraordinary fiscal and monetary policy and rising Covid-19 vaccination numbers alongside falling daily new cases, Darby points to depleted business stockpiles as rationale for an ongoing acceleration in U.S. economic activity. “U.S. 2021 GDP forecasts are far from peaking,” he says, with low inventories and supply-chain issues holding back some fire—meaning the U.S. recovery is understated given latent demand.As such, Darby predicts roughly 30% earnings growth for theS&P 500this year versus last. Some forecasters are even more bullish. AtMorgan Stanley,for example, strategists’ base-case for 2021 S&P 500 earnings is $193 a share versus Darby’s $180.But while broad economic growth may continue to boom for a while, Darby suggests the same may not be so true for corporate earnings. In particular, investors should consider two underappreciated risks.“The V-shape earnings growth is coming to a summit,” he says. “What does concern us is the possibility of peak margins given the ferocity of input costs and the growing likelihood of changes in the corporate tax rate.”On the first point, input costs, the 4.2% year-over-year gain in the March producer-price index was the biggest in 47 years. Survey data reveal a huge mismatch between producers’ inventory levels and incoming orders and backlogs, Morgan Stanley notes, while the latest small-business survey by the National Federation of Independent Businesses shows a record number of firms plan to raise prices.That feedback loop onto corporate profit margins, to the extent companies eat higher input prices instead of immediately passing them onto their customers, may undermine first-quarter  earnings (the reporting season that is currently underway) as well as second-quarter earnings, Darby says.Meanwhile, the Biden administration has proposed raising the corporate tax rate to 28%. That’s down from the 35% before 2017 but above the current 21% rate. In addition, Biden’s plan would lift the minimum tax on foreign profits of U.S. companies to 21% from 10.5%.  Those changes and others would add up to $2 trillion in corporate tax increases over 15 years to pay for his infrastructure plan.What’s the upshot for investors? Putting all that together, Darby says investors should stick with the so-called reflation trade, or the bet that a quickly improving economy would benefit riskiest assets most, such as small-cap stocks over large-caps. Rising growth and inflation expectations should lead to a steeper yield curve, to the benefit of banks and consumer finance companies. Last, Darby says he remains bullish on cyclical stocks (those most closely tied to economic health, such as retail and restaurants).Such stocks, of course, have had good runs so far this year. TheFinancial Select Sector SPDR Fund(ticker: XLF) andConsumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLY) are each up 20% and 11% year-to-date, respectively, far outpacing the 3% rise inConsumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLP). That’s as theRussell 2000is up 13% versus theS&P 500’s10% gain this year.In light of expectations for continued economic momentum and given where the downside risks of rising input prices and taxes would most heavily fall, those segments of the stock market seem to remain good bets.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":371092470,"gmtCreate":1618889944490,"gmtModify":1634290108721,"author":{"id":"3581763231763695","authorId":"3581763231763695","name":"1528b3bd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581763231763695","authorIdStr":"3581763231763695"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will monitor","listText":"Will monitor","text":"Will monitor","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371092470","repostId":"1114523776","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":371050250,"gmtCreate":1618894695370,"gmtModify":1634290070265,"author":{"id":"3581763231763695","authorId":"3581763231763695","name":"1528b3bd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581763231763695","authorIdStr":"3581763231763695"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why I commented already, but my 10 coins not activated?","listText":"Why I commented already, but my 10 coins not activated?","text":"Why I commented already, but my 10 coins not activated?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371050250","repostId":"2128689062","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2128689062","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1618862511,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2128689062?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-20 04:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street slips off record highs, Tesla drops after fatal crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2128689062","media":"Reuters","summary":"Tesla falls after fatal crash, bitcoin slumpsGameStop shares jump as CEO exitsCoca-Cola rises as revenue beats estimates. NEW YORK, April 19  - U.S. stocks closed lower on Monday, slipping from last week's record levels, as investors awaited guidance from first-quarter earnings to justify high valuations, while Tesla Inc    shares fell after a fatal car crash.The electric-car maker fell after a Tesla vehicle believed to be operating without anyone in the driver's seat crashed into a tree on Satu","content":"<ul><li>Tesla falls after fatal crash, bitcoin slumps</li><li>GameStop shares jump as CEO exits</li><li>Coca-Cola rises as revenue beats estimates</li></ul><p>NEW YORK, April 19 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks closed lower on Monday, slipping from last week's record levels, as investors awaited guidance from first-quarter earnings to justify high valuations, while Tesla Inc    shares fell after a fatal car crash.</p><p>The electric-car maker fell after a Tesla vehicle believed to be operating without anyone in the driver's seat crashed into a tree on Saturday north of Houston, killing two occupants.</p><p>The stock was the biggest drag on the S&amp;P 500    and Nasdaq Composite Index   . An 8.4% drop over the weekend in bitcoin   , in which Tesla has an investment, also weighed on its share price.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 was mostly lower, with Microsoft Corp   , Amazon.com Inc    and Nvidia Corp    also weighing on the benchmark index as analysts await results this week and next that form the bulk of earnings season.</p><p>Corporate outlooks should indicate to what degree the rally from last year's lows can continue. Analysts expect first-quarter earnings to have grown 30.9% from a year ago, according to Refinitiv IBES data.</p><p>The U.S. economy is poised to boom as consumers hold $2 trillion in savings in excess of what they held before the pandemic, said Doug Peta, chief U.S. investment strategist at BCA Research, adding markets are in pause mode.</p><p>\"If indeed we do keep grinding higher that would be healthy, that would suggest that the grinding higher is sustainable,\" Peta said. \"The pullbacks along the way are healthy.\"</p><p>Nvidia fell after the UK government said it would look into the national security implications of Nvidia's purchase of British chip designer <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARMH\">ARM Holdings</a>, raising a question mark over the $40 billion deal.</p><p>Coca-Cola Co rose after the beverage maker trounced estimates for quarterly profit and revenue, benefiting from the easing of pandemic curbs and wide vaccine rollouts.</p><p>International Business Machines Corp   , another blue-chip company, slipped ahead of its results due after the market close.</p><p>\"The market has had a huge jump to the upside so it needs to take a little bit of rest,\" said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.</p><p>\"For now it's just a little bit of profit taking as traders await results from big tech names on Wall Street.\"</p><p>Unofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average    fell 0.35% to end at 34,082.44 points, while the S&amp;P 500    lost 0.52% to 4,163.64.</p><p>The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.98% to 13,914.77.</p><p>A recent retreat in benchmark 10-year Treasury yields&nbsp;from 14-month highs has helped high-flying technology stocks to rebound, while strong economic data has lifted the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow to record levels.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 has gained the past four weeks, its longest winning streak since August 2020.</p><p>GameStop Corp    jumped on the announcement of its chief executive's resignation.</p><p>Crypto stocks including miners Riot Blockchain    and Marathon Digital    each slumped as bitcoin took a hammering.</p><p>Harley-Davidson Inc    jumped after the motorcycle maker raised it full-year forecast for sales growth.</p><p>(Reporting by Shivani Kumaresan and Medha Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta, Bernard Orr and Richard Chang)</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street slips off record highs, Tesla drops after fatal crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street slips off record highs, Tesla drops after fatal crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-20 04:01</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<ul><li>Tesla falls after fatal crash, bitcoin slumps</li><li>GameStop shares jump as CEO exits</li><li>Coca-Cola rises as revenue beats estimates</li></ul><p>NEW YORK, April 19 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks closed lower on Monday, slipping from last week's record levels, as investors awaited guidance from first-quarter earnings to justify high valuations, while Tesla Inc    shares fell after a fatal car crash.</p><p>The electric-car maker fell after a Tesla vehicle believed to be operating without anyone in the driver's seat crashed into a tree on Saturday north of Houston, killing two occupants.</p><p>The stock was the biggest drag on the S&amp;P 500    and Nasdaq Composite Index   . An 8.4% drop over the weekend in bitcoin   , in which Tesla has an investment, also weighed on its share price.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 was mostly lower, with Microsoft Corp   , Amazon.com Inc    and Nvidia Corp    also weighing on the benchmark index as analysts await results this week and next that form the bulk of earnings season.</p><p>Corporate outlooks should indicate to what degree the rally from last year's lows can continue. Analysts expect first-quarter earnings to have grown 30.9% from a year ago, according to Refinitiv IBES data.</p><p>The U.S. economy is poised to boom as consumers hold $2 trillion in savings in excess of what they held before the pandemic, said Doug Peta, chief U.S. investment strategist at BCA Research, adding markets are in pause mode.</p><p>\"If indeed we do keep grinding higher that would be healthy, that would suggest that the grinding higher is sustainable,\" Peta said. \"The pullbacks along the way are healthy.\"</p><p>Nvidia fell after the UK government said it would look into the national security implications of Nvidia's purchase of British chip designer <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARMH\">ARM Holdings</a>, raising a question mark over the $40 billion deal.</p><p>Coca-Cola Co rose after the beverage maker trounced estimates for quarterly profit and revenue, benefiting from the easing of pandemic curbs and wide vaccine rollouts.</p><p>International Business Machines Corp   , another blue-chip company, slipped ahead of its results due after the market close.</p><p>\"The market has had a huge jump to the upside so it needs to take a little bit of rest,\" said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.</p><p>\"For now it's just a little bit of profit taking as traders await results from big tech names on Wall Street.\"</p><p>Unofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average    fell 0.35% to end at 34,082.44 points, while the S&amp;P 500    lost 0.52% to 4,163.64.</p><p>The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.98% to 13,914.77.</p><p>A recent retreat in benchmark 10-year Treasury yields&nbsp;from 14-month highs has helped high-flying technology stocks to rebound, while strong economic data has lifted the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow to record levels.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 has gained the past four weeks, its longest winning streak since August 2020.</p><p>GameStop Corp    jumped on the announcement of its chief executive's resignation.</p><p>Crypto stocks including miners Riot Blockchain    and Marathon Digital    each slumped as bitcoin took a hammering.</p><p>Harley-Davidson Inc    jumped after the motorcycle maker raised it full-year forecast for sales growth.</p><p>(Reporting by Shivani Kumaresan and Medha Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta, Bernard Orr and Richard Chang)</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"KO":"可口可乐","MSFT":"微软","SLB":"斯伦贝谢",".DJI":"道琼斯","NFLX":"奈飞","GME":"游戏驿站",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IBM":"IBM","MARA":"MARA Holdings","RIOT":"Riot Platforms","AMZN":"亚马逊","TSLA":"特斯拉","JNJ":"强生","INTC":"英特尔","HON":"霍尼韦尔",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","NVDA":"英伟达","HOG":"哈雷戴维森"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2128689062","content_text":"Tesla falls after fatal crash, bitcoin slumpsGameStop shares jump as CEO exitsCoca-Cola rises as revenue beats estimatesNEW YORK, April 19 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks closed lower on Monday, slipping from last week's record levels, as investors awaited guidance from first-quarter earnings to justify high valuations, while Tesla Inc    shares fell after a fatal car crash.The electric-car maker fell after a Tesla vehicle believed to be operating without anyone in the driver's seat crashed into a tree on Saturday north of Houston, killing two occupants.The stock was the biggest drag on the S&P 500    and Nasdaq Composite Index   . An 8.4% drop over the weekend in bitcoin   , in which Tesla has an investment, also weighed on its share price.The S&P 500 was mostly lower, with Microsoft Corp   , Amazon.com Inc    and Nvidia Corp    also weighing on the benchmark index as analysts await results this week and next that form the bulk of earnings season.Corporate outlooks should indicate to what degree the rally from last year's lows can continue. Analysts expect first-quarter earnings to have grown 30.9% from a year ago, according to Refinitiv IBES data.The U.S. economy is poised to boom as consumers hold $2 trillion in savings in excess of what they held before the pandemic, said Doug Peta, chief U.S. investment strategist at BCA Research, adding markets are in pause mode.\"If indeed we do keep grinding higher that would be healthy, that would suggest that the grinding higher is sustainable,\" Peta said. \"The pullbacks along the way are healthy.\"Nvidia fell after the UK government said it would look into the national security implications of Nvidia's purchase of British chip designer ARM Holdings, raising a question mark over the $40 billion deal.Coca-Cola Co rose after the beverage maker trounced estimates for quarterly profit and revenue, benefiting from the easing of pandemic curbs and wide vaccine rollouts.International Business Machines Corp   , another blue-chip company, slipped ahead of its results due after the market close.\"The market has had a huge jump to the upside so it needs to take a little bit of rest,\" said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.\"For now it's just a little bit of profit taking as traders await results from big tech names on Wall Street.\"Unofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average    fell 0.35% to end at 34,082.44 points, while the S&P 500    lost 0.52% to 4,163.64.The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.98% to 13,914.77.A recent retreat in benchmark 10-year Treasury yields from 14-month highs has helped high-flying technology stocks to rebound, while strong economic data has lifted the S&P 500 and the Dow to record levels.The S&P 500 has gained the past four weeks, its longest winning streak since August 2020.GameStop Corp    jumped on the announcement of its chief executive's resignation.Crypto stocks including miners Riot Blockchain    and Marathon Digital    each slumped as bitcoin took a hammering.Harley-Davidson Inc    jumped after the motorcycle maker raised it full-year forecast for sales growth.(Reporting by Shivani Kumaresan and Medha Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta, Bernard Orr and Richard Chang)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":371038945,"gmtCreate":1618890761887,"gmtModify":1634290103190,"author":{"id":"3581763231763695","authorId":"3581763231763695","name":"1528b3bd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581763231763695","authorIdStr":"3581763231763695"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371038945","repostId":"1116084515","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116084515","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618889698,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116084515?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-20 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Reflation Trade Remains a Good Bet for Now. Try Banks, Small-Caps, and Cyclicals","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116084515","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Economic growth forecasts are far from peaking. Is the same true for corporate earnings?The Commerce","content":"<p>Economic growth forecasts are far from peaking. Is the same true for corporate earnings?</p><p>The Commerce Department last Thursday reported that retail sales rose to a record seasonally adjusted $7.4 trillion in March. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research points out that such sales are up 50% since bottoming last April while the 12-month moving average for the series is also at a record level.</p><p>Companies across the retail sector are benefiting from the latest round of stimulus checks to households. “Americans have been going on a supermarket sweep thanks to the three rounds of pandemic relief checks,” Yardeni says, estimating that about 250 million Americans have received checks that add up to roughly $800 billion in cash available for sweeping through supermarkets, stores, and shopping malls.</p><p>On the heels of the strong retail sales report, economists have been taking 2021 gross domestic product forecasts higher. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model’s first-quarter GDP estimate is now a seasonally adjusted 8.3%, up from 6% before the March retail sales data.</p><p>As Sean Darby, global equities strategist at Jefferies puts it, 2021-22 economic growth will resemble a 100-meter relay race, with the baton passing from China to the U.S. and then the U.K., Japan and Europe sprinting together. In that respect, he says, the S&amp;P 500 will continue to benefit from the theme of global reflation well into the end of the year.</p><p>In addition to extraordinary fiscal and monetary policy and rising Covid-19 vaccination numbers alongside falling daily new cases, Darby points to depleted business stockpiles as rationale for an ongoing acceleration in U.S. economic activity. “U.S. 2021 GDP forecasts are far from peaking,” he says, with low inventories and supply-chain issues holding back some fire—meaning the U.S. recovery is understated given latent demand.</p><p>As such, Darby predicts roughly 30% earnings growth for theS&amp;P 500this year versus last. Some forecasters are even more bullish. AtMorgan Stanley,for example, strategists’ base-case for 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings is $193 a share versus Darby’s $180.</p><p>But while broad economic growth may continue to boom for a while, Darby suggests the same may not be so true for corporate earnings. In particular, investors should consider two underappreciated risks.</p><p>“The V-shape earnings growth is coming to a summit,” he says. “What does concern us is the possibility of peak margins given the ferocity of input costs and the growing likelihood of changes in the corporate tax rate.”</p><p>On the first point, input costs, the 4.2% year-over-year gain in the March producer-price index was the biggest in 47 years. Survey data reveal a huge mismatch between producers’ inventory levels and incoming orders and backlogs, Morgan Stanley notes, while the latest small-business survey by the National Federation of Independent Businesses shows a record number of firms plan to raise prices.</p><p>That feedback loop onto corporate profit margins, to the extent companies eat higher input prices instead of immediately passing them onto their customers, may undermine first-quarter&nbsp; earnings (the reporting season that is currently underway) as well as second-quarter earnings, Darby says.</p><p>Meanwhile, the Biden administration has proposed raising the corporate tax rate to 28%. That’s down from the 35% before 2017 but above the current 21% rate. In addition, Biden’s plan would lift the minimum tax on foreign profits of U.S. companies to 21% from 10.5%.&nbsp; Those changes and others would add up to $2 trillion in corporate tax increases over 15 years to pay for his infrastructure plan.</p><p>What’s the upshot for investors? Putting all that together, Darby says investors should stick with the so-called reflation trade, or the bet that a quickly improving economy would benefit riskiest assets most, such as small-cap stocks over large-caps. Rising growth and inflation expectations should lead to a steeper yield curve, to the benefit of banks and consumer finance companies. Last, Darby says he remains bullish on cyclical stocks (those most closely tied to economic health, such as retail and restaurants).</p><p>Such stocks, of course, have had good runs so far this year. TheFinancial Select Sector SPDR Fund(ticker: XLF) andConsumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLY) are each up 20% and 11% year-to-date, respectively, far outpacing the 3% rise inConsumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLP). That’s as theRussell 2000is up 13% versus theS&amp;P 500’s10% gain this year.</p><p>In light of expectations for continued economic momentum and given where the downside risks of rising input prices and taxes would most heavily fall, those segments of the stock market seem to remain good bets.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reflation Trade Remains a Good Bet for Now. Try Banks, Small-Caps, and Cyclicals</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReflation Trade Remains a Good Bet for Now. Try Banks, Small-Caps, and Cyclicals\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-20 11:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/reflation-trade-remains-a-good-bet-for-now-try-banks-small-caps-and-cyclicals-51618861036?mod=newsviewer_click><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Economic growth forecasts are far from peaking. Is the same true for corporate earnings?The Commerce Department last Thursday reported that retail sales rose to a record seasonally adjusted $7.4 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/reflation-trade-remains-a-good-bet-for-now-try-banks-small-caps-and-cyclicals-51618861036?mod=newsviewer_click\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/reflation-trade-remains-a-good-bet-for-now-try-banks-small-caps-and-cyclicals-51618861036?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1116084515","content_text":"Economic growth forecasts are far from peaking. Is the same true for corporate earnings?The Commerce Department last Thursday reported that retail sales rose to a record seasonally adjusted $7.4 trillion in March. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research points out that such sales are up 50% since bottoming last April while the 12-month moving average for the series is also at a record level.Companies across the retail sector are benefiting from the latest round of stimulus checks to households. “Americans have been going on a supermarket sweep thanks to the three rounds of pandemic relief checks,” Yardeni says, estimating that about 250 million Americans have received checks that add up to roughly $800 billion in cash available for sweeping through supermarkets, stores, and shopping malls.On the heels of the strong retail sales report, economists have been taking 2021 gross domestic product forecasts higher. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model’s first-quarter GDP estimate is now a seasonally adjusted 8.3%, up from 6% before the March retail sales data.As Sean Darby, global equities strategist at Jefferies puts it, 2021-22 economic growth will resemble a 100-meter relay race, with the baton passing from China to the U.S. and then the U.K., Japan and Europe sprinting together. In that respect, he says, the S&P 500 will continue to benefit from the theme of global reflation well into the end of the year.In addition to extraordinary fiscal and monetary policy and rising Covid-19 vaccination numbers alongside falling daily new cases, Darby points to depleted business stockpiles as rationale for an ongoing acceleration in U.S. economic activity. “U.S. 2021 GDP forecasts are far from peaking,” he says, with low inventories and supply-chain issues holding back some fire—meaning the U.S. recovery is understated given latent demand.As such, Darby predicts roughly 30% earnings growth for theS&P 500this year versus last. Some forecasters are even more bullish. AtMorgan Stanley,for example, strategists’ base-case for 2021 S&P 500 earnings is $193 a share versus Darby’s $180.But while broad economic growth may continue to boom for a while, Darby suggests the same may not be so true for corporate earnings. In particular, investors should consider two underappreciated risks.“The V-shape earnings growth is coming to a summit,” he says. “What does concern us is the possibility of peak margins given the ferocity of input costs and the growing likelihood of changes in the corporate tax rate.”On the first point, input costs, the 4.2% year-over-year gain in the March producer-price index was the biggest in 47 years. Survey data reveal a huge mismatch between producers’ inventory levels and incoming orders and backlogs, Morgan Stanley notes, while the latest small-business survey by the National Federation of Independent Businesses shows a record number of firms plan to raise prices.That feedback loop onto corporate profit margins, to the extent companies eat higher input prices instead of immediately passing them onto their customers, may undermine first-quarter  earnings (the reporting season that is currently underway) as well as second-quarter earnings, Darby says.Meanwhile, the Biden administration has proposed raising the corporate tax rate to 28%. That’s down from the 35% before 2017 but above the current 21% rate. In addition, Biden’s plan would lift the minimum tax on foreign profits of U.S. companies to 21% from 10.5%.  Those changes and others would add up to $2 trillion in corporate tax increases over 15 years to pay for his infrastructure plan.What’s the upshot for investors? Putting all that together, Darby says investors should stick with the so-called reflation trade, or the bet that a quickly improving economy would benefit riskiest assets most, such as small-cap stocks over large-caps. Rising growth and inflation expectations should lead to a steeper yield curve, to the benefit of banks and consumer finance companies. Last, Darby says he remains bullish on cyclical stocks (those most closely tied to economic health, such as retail and restaurants).Such stocks, of course, have had good runs so far this year. TheFinancial Select Sector SPDR Fund(ticker: XLF) andConsumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLY) are each up 20% and 11% year-to-date, respectively, far outpacing the 3% rise inConsumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLP). That’s as theRussell 2000is up 13% versus theS&P 500’s10% gain this year.In light of expectations for continued economic momentum and given where the downside risks of rising input prices and taxes would most heavily fall, those segments of the stock market seem to remain good bets.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":371049190,"gmtCreate":1618895534710,"gmtModify":1634290062863,"author":{"id":"3581763231763695","authorId":"3581763231763695","name":"1528b3bd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581763231763695","authorIdStr":"3581763231763695"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment to my post leh","listText":"Comment to my post leh","text":"Comment to my post leh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371049190","repostId":"1116084515","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116084515","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618889698,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116084515?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-20 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Reflation Trade Remains a Good Bet for Now. Try Banks, Small-Caps, and Cyclicals","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116084515","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Economic growth forecasts are far from peaking. Is the same true for corporate earnings?The Commerce","content":"<p>Economic growth forecasts are far from peaking. Is the same true for corporate earnings?</p><p>The Commerce Department last Thursday reported that retail sales rose to a record seasonally adjusted $7.4 trillion in March. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research points out that such sales are up 50% since bottoming last April while the 12-month moving average for the series is also at a record level.</p><p>Companies across the retail sector are benefiting from the latest round of stimulus checks to households. “Americans have been going on a supermarket sweep thanks to the three rounds of pandemic relief checks,” Yardeni says, estimating that about 250 million Americans have received checks that add up to roughly $800 billion in cash available for sweeping through supermarkets, stores, and shopping malls.</p><p>On the heels of the strong retail sales report, economists have been taking 2021 gross domestic product forecasts higher. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model’s first-quarter GDP estimate is now a seasonally adjusted 8.3%, up from 6% before the March retail sales data.</p><p>As Sean Darby, global equities strategist at Jefferies puts it, 2021-22 economic growth will resemble a 100-meter relay race, with the baton passing from China to the U.S. and then the U.K., Japan and Europe sprinting together. In that respect, he says, the S&amp;P 500 will continue to benefit from the theme of global reflation well into the end of the year.</p><p>In addition to extraordinary fiscal and monetary policy and rising Covid-19 vaccination numbers alongside falling daily new cases, Darby points to depleted business stockpiles as rationale for an ongoing acceleration in U.S. economic activity. “U.S. 2021 GDP forecasts are far from peaking,” he says, with low inventories and supply-chain issues holding back some fire—meaning the U.S. recovery is understated given latent demand.</p><p>As such, Darby predicts roughly 30% earnings growth for theS&amp;P 500this year versus last. Some forecasters are even more bullish. AtMorgan Stanley,for example, strategists’ base-case for 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings is $193 a share versus Darby’s $180.</p><p>But while broad economic growth may continue to boom for a while, Darby suggests the same may not be so true for corporate earnings. In particular, investors should consider two underappreciated risks.</p><p>“The V-shape earnings growth is coming to a summit,” he says. “What does concern us is the possibility of peak margins given the ferocity of input costs and the growing likelihood of changes in the corporate tax rate.”</p><p>On the first point, input costs, the 4.2% year-over-year gain in the March producer-price index was the biggest in 47 years. Survey data reveal a huge mismatch between producers’ inventory levels and incoming orders and backlogs, Morgan Stanley notes, while the latest small-business survey by the National Federation of Independent Businesses shows a record number of firms plan to raise prices.</p><p>That feedback loop onto corporate profit margins, to the extent companies eat higher input prices instead of immediately passing them onto their customers, may undermine first-quarter&nbsp; earnings (the reporting season that is currently underway) as well as second-quarter earnings, Darby says.</p><p>Meanwhile, the Biden administration has proposed raising the corporate tax rate to 28%. That’s down from the 35% before 2017 but above the current 21% rate. In addition, Biden’s plan would lift the minimum tax on foreign profits of U.S. companies to 21% from 10.5%.&nbsp; Those changes and others would add up to $2 trillion in corporate tax increases over 15 years to pay for his infrastructure plan.</p><p>What’s the upshot for investors? Putting all that together, Darby says investors should stick with the so-called reflation trade, or the bet that a quickly improving economy would benefit riskiest assets most, such as small-cap stocks over large-caps. Rising growth and inflation expectations should lead to a steeper yield curve, to the benefit of banks and consumer finance companies. Last, Darby says he remains bullish on cyclical stocks (those most closely tied to economic health, such as retail and restaurants).</p><p>Such stocks, of course, have had good runs so far this year. TheFinancial Select Sector SPDR Fund(ticker: XLF) andConsumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLY) are each up 20% and 11% year-to-date, respectively, far outpacing the 3% rise inConsumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLP). That’s as theRussell 2000is up 13% versus theS&amp;P 500’s10% gain this year.</p><p>In light of expectations for continued economic momentum and given where the downside risks of rising input prices and taxes would most heavily fall, those segments of the stock market seem to remain good bets.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reflation Trade Remains a Good Bet for Now. Try Banks, Small-Caps, and Cyclicals</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReflation Trade Remains a Good Bet for Now. Try Banks, Small-Caps, and Cyclicals\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-20 11:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/reflation-trade-remains-a-good-bet-for-now-try-banks-small-caps-and-cyclicals-51618861036?mod=newsviewer_click><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Economic growth forecasts are far from peaking. Is the same true for corporate earnings?The Commerce Department last Thursday reported that retail sales rose to a record seasonally adjusted $7.4 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/reflation-trade-remains-a-good-bet-for-now-try-banks-small-caps-and-cyclicals-51618861036?mod=newsviewer_click\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/reflation-trade-remains-a-good-bet-for-now-try-banks-small-caps-and-cyclicals-51618861036?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1116084515","content_text":"Economic growth forecasts are far from peaking. Is the same true for corporate earnings?The Commerce Department last Thursday reported that retail sales rose to a record seasonally adjusted $7.4 trillion in March. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research points out that such sales are up 50% since bottoming last April while the 12-month moving average for the series is also at a record level.Companies across the retail sector are benefiting from the latest round of stimulus checks to households. “Americans have been going on a supermarket sweep thanks to the three rounds of pandemic relief checks,” Yardeni says, estimating that about 250 million Americans have received checks that add up to roughly $800 billion in cash available for sweeping through supermarkets, stores, and shopping malls.On the heels of the strong retail sales report, economists have been taking 2021 gross domestic product forecasts higher. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model’s first-quarter GDP estimate is now a seasonally adjusted 8.3%, up from 6% before the March retail sales data.As Sean Darby, global equities strategist at Jefferies puts it, 2021-22 economic growth will resemble a 100-meter relay race, with the baton passing from China to the U.S. and then the U.K., Japan and Europe sprinting together. In that respect, he says, the S&P 500 will continue to benefit from the theme of global reflation well into the end of the year.In addition to extraordinary fiscal and monetary policy and rising Covid-19 vaccination numbers alongside falling daily new cases, Darby points to depleted business stockpiles as rationale for an ongoing acceleration in U.S. economic activity. “U.S. 2021 GDP forecasts are far from peaking,” he says, with low inventories and supply-chain issues holding back some fire—meaning the U.S. recovery is understated given latent demand.As such, Darby predicts roughly 30% earnings growth for theS&P 500this year versus last. Some forecasters are even more bullish. AtMorgan Stanley,for example, strategists’ base-case for 2021 S&P 500 earnings is $193 a share versus Darby’s $180.But while broad economic growth may continue to boom for a while, Darby suggests the same may not be so true for corporate earnings. In particular, investors should consider two underappreciated risks.“The V-shape earnings growth is coming to a summit,” he says. “What does concern us is the possibility of peak margins given the ferocity of input costs and the growing likelihood of changes in the corporate tax rate.”On the first point, input costs, the 4.2% year-over-year gain in the March producer-price index was the biggest in 47 years. Survey data reveal a huge mismatch between producers’ inventory levels and incoming orders and backlogs, Morgan Stanley notes, while the latest small-business survey by the National Federation of Independent Businesses shows a record number of firms plan to raise prices.That feedback loop onto corporate profit margins, to the extent companies eat higher input prices instead of immediately passing them onto their customers, may undermine first-quarter  earnings (the reporting season that is currently underway) as well as second-quarter earnings, Darby says.Meanwhile, the Biden administration has proposed raising the corporate tax rate to 28%. That’s down from the 35% before 2017 but above the current 21% rate. In addition, Biden’s plan would lift the minimum tax on foreign profits of U.S. companies to 21% from 10.5%.  Those changes and others would add up to $2 trillion in corporate tax increases over 15 years to pay for his infrastructure plan.What’s the upshot for investors? Putting all that together, Darby says investors should stick with the so-called reflation trade, or the bet that a quickly improving economy would benefit riskiest assets most, such as small-cap stocks over large-caps. Rising growth and inflation expectations should lead to a steeper yield curve, to the benefit of banks and consumer finance companies. Last, Darby says he remains bullish on cyclical stocks (those most closely tied to economic health, such as retail and restaurants).Such stocks, of course, have had good runs so far this year. TheFinancial Select Sector SPDR Fund(ticker: XLF) andConsumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLY) are each up 20% and 11% year-to-date, respectively, far outpacing the 3% rise inConsumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLP). That’s as theRussell 2000is up 13% versus theS&P 500’s10% gain this year.In light of expectations for continued economic momentum and given where the downside risks of rising input prices and taxes would most heavily fall, those segments of the stock market seem to remain good bets.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":279,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":371092470,"gmtCreate":1618889944490,"gmtModify":1634290108721,"author":{"id":"3581763231763695","authorId":"3581763231763695","name":"1528b3bd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581763231763695","authorIdStr":"3581763231763695"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will monitor","listText":"Will monitor","text":"Will monitor","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371092470","repostId":"1114523776","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}