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虎视Tan

虎视Tan

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2021-10-05

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2021-09-08

Overvalued

Apple Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell? Wait For The Dip First To Buy

2021-09-03

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2021-09-01

👏

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2021-08-28

Good try

Tesla Wants to Become an Electricity Retailer in Texas. What To Know.

2021-07-29

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2021-07-27

Good move why not set sight on dengue

After Covid, BioNTech Has Its Sights Set on Malaria

2021-07-25

Accumulate more

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2021-07-25

Game over?

GameStop: The Game Is Far From Over

2021-07-25

Can’t decide, buy both

Better Buy: Nvidia vs. Micron Technology

2021-07-25

Read 👍

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2021-07-25

Square 👍

Will Square Be Worth More Than PayPal by 2025?

2021-07-24

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2021-07-24

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2021-07-24

NIO follow Tesla’s footsteps, I follow NIO [Happy]

Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks

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Wait For The Dip First To Buy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139582863","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is facing potential headwinds regarding its App Store take rate, but investors should","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple is facing potential headwinds regarding its App Store take rate, but investors should be reminded that such issues are nothing new for the company.</li>\n <li>Even though iPhone is still the key revenue and profit driver, investors should watch its fast-growing services segment closely.</li>\n <li>Nevertheless, Apple needs to demonstrate that it can grow its services segment quickly moving forward to justify its premium valuation.</li>\n <li>Given its valuation right now, it's hard for us to justify a Buy rating, but we don't encourage readers to bet against the company as well.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)recently celebrated CEO Tim Cook's tenth year in charge since its visionary founder, the late Steve Jobs, stepped down in Aug 2011. Under Tim Cook's stewardship, the iPhone continues to be a key revenue driver since reinventing the smartphone landscape 15 years ago and helped AAPL reached the pinnacle as the world's most valuable company.</p>\n<p>While the media focused their attention on the regulatory concerns regarding its 30% take rate from its App Store, AAPL's investors have largely brushed it aside as they turned their eye to the impending iPhone 13 launch knowing that having to contend with regulators is nothing new, and is largely expected, as they are smart enough to focus on the forest and not the trees.</p>\n<p>In this article, we help our readers to focus on the big picture of Apple's burgeoning services segment, which we think investors don't give enough credit to CEO Tim Cook for, even as the company navigates high expectations with its iPhone 13 sales, 5G ramp and an expected slowdown in revenue and profit growth moving forward.</p>\n<p>We will also present our valuation argument for Apple Inc., from the EBIT and EBITDA perspective, as well as our analysis of AAPL stock's price action to help investors decide whether to add exposure to AAPL now.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Stock YTD Performance</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11254a709c567ca88d28b9b8487819e0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>FAANG YTD performance (as of 2 Sep 21).</i></p>\n<p>AAPL stock's YTD performance has underperformed Invesco QQQ ETF(NASDAQ:QQQ), together with Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)and Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX), as Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)easily outperformed the trio with their fast-growing, highly profitable, and dominant digital advertising duopoly (that we highlighted in a recent The Trade Desk(NASDAQ:TTD)article, appendedhere).</p>\n<p>Theglobal digital advertising marketis expected to continue its stellar expansion as the market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 14.3% from $378B in 2020 to $646B by 2024, while the global smartphone market (by shipment) is only expected to grow by 7.7% YoY in 2021 to 1.38B units, and YoY growth is expected to slow subsequently to 3.8% in 2022 and then to about 2% by 2025 according toIDC forecasts. Therefore we think that the 5G ramp will likely boost sales from Apple's 5G upgrade through 2022 before the going gets tougher moving forward. As a result, AAPL's share price may likely face growth headwinds due to the stock's current valuation, which we will discuss in the subsequent sections.</p>\n<p><b>iPhone is Important, But Apple's Services Segment is Growing Its Clout</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a51d89975f674cdcc4911ec4a9893\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Apple total revenue (by FY and LTM) and revenue forecast mean consensus. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63aa2ec0d4263a3b5ed73478f7241c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Apple revenue by product (By FY). Data source: Company filings</i></p>\n<p>While consistent, Apple's revenue growth from 2016 to 2020 was certainly not spectacular as it grew by a CAGR of just 6.22%, even though 2021 has been a remarkable year as its LTM revenue reached $347B. Readers should also be able to easily glean that the Street is also not optimistic that Apple would be able to continue its stellar 2021 performance moving forward as revenue is expected to increase from $366B in FY21 to $447B by FY25, which represents a CAGR of just about 5.1% over the next 4 years, that's even slower than its FY16 to the FY20 CAGR.</p>\n<p>An important point for investors to note is that iPhone's revenue actually fell in FY19 and FY20, and despite that, the company still managed to eke out an increase in revenue in FY20. Notably, Apple's services segment has been growing remarkably to support the company's revenue growth. Its revenue increased by a CAGR of 20.3% from FY18 to FY20. Its revenue also reached $50.2B based on its collective performance from Q1'21 to Q3'21.</p>\n<p>Therefore, while iPhone continues to be a vital segment for the company as it accounted for 54.2% of the first three quarters' revenue, astute investors have been keeping an eye on the company's fast-growing services segment, which they believe will be the key driver of growth for the company moving forward.</p>\n<p>In fact, we think Roku(NASDAQ:ROKU)might even have found Apple's margins with its hardware segments enviable, as investors in Roku know that the Connected TV (CTV) platform leader uses a low-margin hardware penetration gameplan to attract users onto its platform for the company to leverage their highly effective monetization strategies (we shared this in a recent Roku article, link to the article is appendedhere), that the company was willing to even go into negative margins in Q2 to absorb the costs pressure relating to the semiconductor supply chain issues.</p>\n<p>However, Apple operates with a much higher gross margin for its hardware segments, which has been close to 40% over time, which has not only helped to make a tidy profit off its hardware but has also given the company a huge installed base of Apple devices to monetize through its services segment.</p>\n<p>In our recent article on Digital Turbine(NASDAQ:APPS), we shared that iOS has a global market share of about 26.3%, against an estimated global installed base of 6.2B units in 2021 (link to the article is appendedhere). This means that Apple is expected to have a total iOS installed base of about 1.63B units by the end of this year that the company can leverage, and we think the potential is massive.</p>\n<p>According to Apple's filings, its services segment consists of sales \"from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare®, digital content, and other services. Services net sales also include amortization of the deferred value of Maps, Siri, and free iCloud storage and Apple TV+SM services, which are bundled in the sales price of certain products.\"</p>\n<p>Therefore, it's a segment with huge potential. Currently, the most important sub-segment within services is none other than its lucrative Apps store. Even more amazing is that despite iOS having only a 26% share of the global installed base, Apps store revenue has consistently outperformed Google Play revenue. The same trend is expected to continue as iOS consumers were expected to spend $41.5B in H1'21 compared to $23.4B for Google Play consumers from an earlierstudy in Juneby Sensor Tower. Using a 30% take rate as a basis, the Apps Store was expected to generate about $12.45B in commissions, accounting for 38.1% of H1'21 services revenue of $32.7B. Importantly, this is also a highly profitable segment, ascourt documentson Alphabet showed that its Play store posted an operating margin of 62.5% in 2019 (Google doesn't break out its Play store margins).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74e1421d1674431ff9e387d6ec8d4f62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>App Store profitability estimates analysis. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ, various company filings, Reuters, Alphabet</i></p>\n<p>If we consider Apple's overall LTM operating margin of 28.8%, then we are pretty sure App's store margins are a big deal, even though based on its annual run rate of $25B, it is only expected to account for just 6.8% of FY21 consensus revenue estimates. However, if we look at Apple Inc.'s FY21 EBIT estimates of $108.7B (estimated EBIT margin of 29.7%), the App Store is expected to account for 14.4% of Apple's total EBIT estimates for FY21. It's unequivocally a crucial revenue and profit driver for Apple to protect and sustain, especially since the App Store revenue grew 22.1% YoY in H1'21. Moreover, with Apple's iPhone sales doing extremely well in FY21 so far (iPhone's revenue for Q1-Q3 has already exceeded FY19 and FY20 total iPhone revenue), we think the momentum for App Store is only just getting started.</p>\n<p><b>The App Store is a Key Beneficiary of Mobile Gaming</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f974b56f9fab5f9d406a8a2053249aa6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Mobile gaming content market worldwide. Data source: Capcom; International Development Group</i></p>\n<p>Mobile gaming is expected to grow consistently over the next few years, from $121.1B in 2020 to $169.7B by 2025, representing a CAGR of about 7%. We highlighted in our recent articles on Roblox(NYSE:RBLX)and Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)how mobile gaming's secular growth is not just a COVID-19 phenomenon (link to the articles are appendedhereandhere).</p>\n<p>Therefore, it's clear that the App Store is a key beneficiary of mobile gaming's secular growth, and we can definitely observe in its H1'21 performance as in-game spending increased by 13.5% YoY from $22.9B in H1'20 to $26B in H1'21, which also represented 62.7% of App Store's H1'21 revenue.</p>\n<p>Therefore, we are not surprised that the recent furor over Apple's take rate from the App Store has caused lots of confusion and chatter about whether it will lead to the dismantling of Apple's closely-guarded, highly lucrative revenue stream.</p>\n<p>We think Apple has certainly recognized the need to placate regulators about its supposed \"monopolistic\" behavior by allowing theso-called reader appsto be exempted from its commissions. Still, it is important to note that this does not affect gaming apps and in-app purchases, thus allowing Apple to continue relying on their most lucrative gaming apps to drive revenue growth.</p>\n<p>Despite that, therecent billby the South Korean parliament to disallow app store operators from charging commissions on in-app purchases should be carefully watched, as this may have ramifications around the world if regulators were to follow the signal from South Korea. Nevertheless, we will like to remind our readers not to overreact to such developments but to keep calm and observe. Apple didn't get to become the world's most valuable company without overcoming its fair share of regulatory issues, and we should certainly expect the management to show similar resilience and fortitude as they had in the past.</p>\n<p><b>Advertising is the Trump Card</b></p>\n<p>We highlighted previously in our recent article on Amazon where we discussed why advertising is the most underrated segment for the e-commerce behemoth, as it's the company's fastest-growing segment (link to the article is appendedhere).</p>\n<p>We think likewise for Apple; we encourage investors never to underestimate Apple's ability to monetize its users. We have seen earlier how, despite iOS having just 26% of the global installed base, the App Store revenue easily outsized Google Play's revenue in H1'21. With a global installed base that's 1.6B and growing, there are many monetization opportunities that Apple can certainly leverage.</p>\n<p>For example, in our Digital Turbine articles (the most recent one ishere), we showed how lucrative the content discovery business for APPS is, even though the company mainly worked with the Android OS. Now, the company has a full-stack ad tech platform for its expanded digital media business. Therefore, we think this is a marvelous opportunity for Apple, as the owner of the iOS ecosystem, to expand on its content discovery offerings for its app developers who want to cut through the clutter of apps to appear in front of consumers, which is a $500M business for Digital Turbine's work on the Android OS. Although it's not a big deal for Apple, it shows various opportunities for monetization that the company can expand into.</p>\n<p>In addition, Apple has also been able to capitalize on Google's advertising growth by using Google as the default search engine for iOS. Based onBernstein's estimates, Google paid about $10B to Apple for that in FY20, and thus it is an important revenue driver for the services segment, besides the App Store revenue.</p>\n<p>Importantly, Apple's ad revenue from its own App Store is estimated to account for$3B of FY21's revenue, up from a mere $300M in FY17, a 10x growth in 4 years. We don't find the projections unreasonable if readers refer to our Amazon article. The company grew its ad revenue by a CAGR of 74% from 2017 and 2019 and by 52% YoY even during 2020's pandemic year. The advertising momentum that Amazon has experienced from its e-commerce marketplace is truly phenomenal, which generates 90% of its advertising revenue, which was worth $21.45B in FY20, up from just $4.65B in FY17.</p>\n<p>Therefore we think the advertising potential from the App Store ads is likely to be in the early innings of its growth, and we highly encourage investors to watch this space closely. Even though Bernstein's estimates of about $20B (4.5% of FY25 estimated revenue) worth of ad revenue by FY25 may not be a blockbuster number when we compare it to FY25's estimated revenue of $447B, this is likely going be a highly profitable segment that can garner an operating margin in the range of 35% to 40% (equivalent to about $7b to $8B in operating profits) as we demonstrated in our Amazon article. Against an estimated EBIT of $104.9B by FY25, a 7% potential contribution from advertising that is growing is definitely an important diversification from the troubles brewing over its App Store take rate, as well as a potential slowdown in growth on its hardware segments.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Stock Looks Fairly Valued for Now</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e307e213aa591ed575a94d8d851f02ae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>EBIT multiples valuation comps set. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02c49b9d4862250203a702d7038923cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>EBITDA multiples valuation comps set. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</i></p>\n<p>We think why investors have often found it challenging to understand the valuation for AAPL is because they often compared it to its smartphone peers such as Samsung(OTC:SSNLF)(KRX:A005930) or Xiaomi(OTCPK:XIACY), which trade at much lower valuation multiples (whether EBIT or EBITDA) as compared to AAPL, especially when AAPL is not expected to be growing as fast, moving forward.</p>\n<p>Investors should observe that AAPL is trading as if it's a major player in the digital advertising market like its FAANG peers: Alphabet and Facebook. We think for investors to make sense of Apple's valuation, it really depends on how Apple will be able to monetize its huge installed base and grow its advertising revenue rapidly to convince investors that it's deserving of its premium price, even though it remains a highly profitable business, much more than Xiaomi.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c059c6e6a89d5a187415238276831a5b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>AAPL Street mean target price. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium</i></p>\n<p>We decided to give AAPL the benefit of the doubt and valued the company based on its estimated FY22 trading multiples (EBIT: 20.7x, EBITDA: 18.9x) and derived an implied fair value of around $143.9 based on its EBIT and EBITDA multiples at the midpoint of its fair value range. This suggests that the stock has a potential downside of about 6% (not including the margin of safety) from its last closing price of $153.90. Readers who would like to review our valuation models can refer to themhereandhere.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, based on the Street's mean target price of $164.33, the stock is valued at an FY22 implied EBIT multiple of about 22.1x, which we think looks like a premium valuation that the Street is willing to extend the Cupertino company.</p>\n<p><b>Price Action and Trend Analysis</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06b641ba94ad84041dc4506b96cefb32\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>AAPL stock price action (weekly).</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc9058c67b259dc384c1912b1a5e9074\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>AAPL EV/Fwd EBIT trend.</i></p>\n<p>While we don't find a preferred entry point on AAPL right now, AAPL stock's long-term uptrend is unambivalent no matter how we see it. In addition, investors can easily glean from its EV/Fwd EBIT trend that the stock has never traded cheaply over the last 5 years with a mean EBIT multiple of about 14.6x, even though the market is willing to value AAPL at a much higher valuation now at 22.97x EBIT.</p>\n<p>Therefore, while we are excited about the company's growth prospects around its advertising segment and its App Stores potential given its huge installed base, we are wary of the valuation placed by the market on AAPL right now and encourage investors to wait for a major retracement, before considering adding new exposure to AAPL.</p>\n<p>As a result, we<i>rate AAPL at neutral</i>for now.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell? Wait For The Dip First To Buy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell? Wait For The Dip First To Buy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-07 22:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453887-apple-stock-good-time-buy-sell><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple is facing potential headwinds regarding its App Store take rate, but investors should be reminded that such issues are nothing new for the company.\nEven though iPhone is still the key ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453887-apple-stock-good-time-buy-sell\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453887-apple-stock-good-time-buy-sell","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1139582863","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is facing potential headwinds regarding its App Store take rate, but investors should be reminded that such issues are nothing new for the company.\nEven though iPhone is still the key revenue and profit driver, investors should watch its fast-growing services segment closely.\nNevertheless, Apple needs to demonstrate that it can grow its services segment quickly moving forward to justify its premium valuation.\nGiven its valuation right now, it's hard for us to justify a Buy rating, but we don't encourage readers to bet against the company as well.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nApple(NASDAQ:AAPL)recently celebrated CEO Tim Cook's tenth year in charge since its visionary founder, the late Steve Jobs, stepped down in Aug 2011. Under Tim Cook's stewardship, the iPhone continues to be a key revenue driver since reinventing the smartphone landscape 15 years ago and helped AAPL reached the pinnacle as the world's most valuable company.\nWhile the media focused their attention on the regulatory concerns regarding its 30% take rate from its App Store, AAPL's investors have largely brushed it aside as they turned their eye to the impending iPhone 13 launch knowing that having to contend with regulators is nothing new, and is largely expected, as they are smart enough to focus on the forest and not the trees.\nIn this article, we help our readers to focus on the big picture of Apple's burgeoning services segment, which we think investors don't give enough credit to CEO Tim Cook for, even as the company navigates high expectations with its iPhone 13 sales, 5G ramp and an expected slowdown in revenue and profit growth moving forward.\nWe will also present our valuation argument for Apple Inc., from the EBIT and EBITDA perspective, as well as our analysis of AAPL stock's price action to help investors decide whether to add exposure to AAPL now.\nApple Stock YTD Performance\nFAANG YTD performance (as of 2 Sep 21).\nAAPL stock's YTD performance has underperformed Invesco QQQ ETF(NASDAQ:QQQ), together with Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)and Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX), as Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)easily outperformed the trio with their fast-growing, highly profitable, and dominant digital advertising duopoly (that we highlighted in a recent The Trade Desk(NASDAQ:TTD)article, appendedhere).\nTheglobal digital advertising marketis expected to continue its stellar expansion as the market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 14.3% from $378B in 2020 to $646B by 2024, while the global smartphone market (by shipment) is only expected to grow by 7.7% YoY in 2021 to 1.38B units, and YoY growth is expected to slow subsequently to 3.8% in 2022 and then to about 2% by 2025 according toIDC forecasts. Therefore we think that the 5G ramp will likely boost sales from Apple's 5G upgrade through 2022 before the going gets tougher moving forward. As a result, AAPL's share price may likely face growth headwinds due to the stock's current valuation, which we will discuss in the subsequent sections.\niPhone is Important, But Apple's Services Segment is Growing Its Clout\nApple total revenue (by FY and LTM) and revenue forecast mean consensus. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nApple revenue by product (By FY). Data source: Company filings\nWhile consistent, Apple's revenue growth from 2016 to 2020 was certainly not spectacular as it grew by a CAGR of just 6.22%, even though 2021 has been a remarkable year as its LTM revenue reached $347B. Readers should also be able to easily glean that the Street is also not optimistic that Apple would be able to continue its stellar 2021 performance moving forward as revenue is expected to increase from $366B in FY21 to $447B by FY25, which represents a CAGR of just about 5.1% over the next 4 years, that's even slower than its FY16 to the FY20 CAGR.\nAn important point for investors to note is that iPhone's revenue actually fell in FY19 and FY20, and despite that, the company still managed to eke out an increase in revenue in FY20. Notably, Apple's services segment has been growing remarkably to support the company's revenue growth. Its revenue increased by a CAGR of 20.3% from FY18 to FY20. Its revenue also reached $50.2B based on its collective performance from Q1'21 to Q3'21.\nTherefore, while iPhone continues to be a vital segment for the company as it accounted for 54.2% of the first three quarters' revenue, astute investors have been keeping an eye on the company's fast-growing services segment, which they believe will be the key driver of growth for the company moving forward.\nIn fact, we think Roku(NASDAQ:ROKU)might even have found Apple's margins with its hardware segments enviable, as investors in Roku know that the Connected TV (CTV) platform leader uses a low-margin hardware penetration gameplan to attract users onto its platform for the company to leverage their highly effective monetization strategies (we shared this in a recent Roku article, link to the article is appendedhere), that the company was willing to even go into negative margins in Q2 to absorb the costs pressure relating to the semiconductor supply chain issues.\nHowever, Apple operates with a much higher gross margin for its hardware segments, which has been close to 40% over time, which has not only helped to make a tidy profit off its hardware but has also given the company a huge installed base of Apple devices to monetize through its services segment.\nIn our recent article on Digital Turbine(NASDAQ:APPS), we shared that iOS has a global market share of about 26.3%, against an estimated global installed base of 6.2B units in 2021 (link to the article is appendedhere). This means that Apple is expected to have a total iOS installed base of about 1.63B units by the end of this year that the company can leverage, and we think the potential is massive.\nAccording to Apple's filings, its services segment consists of sales \"from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare®, digital content, and other services. Services net sales also include amortization of the deferred value of Maps, Siri, and free iCloud storage and Apple TV+SM services, which are bundled in the sales price of certain products.\"\nTherefore, it's a segment with huge potential. Currently, the most important sub-segment within services is none other than its lucrative Apps store. Even more amazing is that despite iOS having only a 26% share of the global installed base, Apps store revenue has consistently outperformed Google Play revenue. The same trend is expected to continue as iOS consumers were expected to spend $41.5B in H1'21 compared to $23.4B for Google Play consumers from an earlierstudy in Juneby Sensor Tower. Using a 30% take rate as a basis, the Apps Store was expected to generate about $12.45B in commissions, accounting for 38.1% of H1'21 services revenue of $32.7B. Importantly, this is also a highly profitable segment, ascourt documentson Alphabet showed that its Play store posted an operating margin of 62.5% in 2019 (Google doesn't break out its Play store margins).\nApp Store profitability estimates analysis. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, various company filings, Reuters, Alphabet\nIf we consider Apple's overall LTM operating margin of 28.8%, then we are pretty sure App's store margins are a big deal, even though based on its annual run rate of $25B, it is only expected to account for just 6.8% of FY21 consensus revenue estimates. However, if we look at Apple Inc.'s FY21 EBIT estimates of $108.7B (estimated EBIT margin of 29.7%), the App Store is expected to account for 14.4% of Apple's total EBIT estimates for FY21. It's unequivocally a crucial revenue and profit driver for Apple to protect and sustain, especially since the App Store revenue grew 22.1% YoY in H1'21. Moreover, with Apple's iPhone sales doing extremely well in FY21 so far (iPhone's revenue for Q1-Q3 has already exceeded FY19 and FY20 total iPhone revenue), we think the momentum for App Store is only just getting started.\nThe App Store is a Key Beneficiary of Mobile Gaming\nMobile gaming content market worldwide. Data source: Capcom; International Development Group\nMobile gaming is expected to grow consistently over the next few years, from $121.1B in 2020 to $169.7B by 2025, representing a CAGR of about 7%. We highlighted in our recent articles on Roblox(NYSE:RBLX)and Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)how mobile gaming's secular growth is not just a COVID-19 phenomenon (link to the articles are appendedhereandhere).\nTherefore, it's clear that the App Store is a key beneficiary of mobile gaming's secular growth, and we can definitely observe in its H1'21 performance as in-game spending increased by 13.5% YoY from $22.9B in H1'20 to $26B in H1'21, which also represented 62.7% of App Store's H1'21 revenue.\nTherefore, we are not surprised that the recent furor over Apple's take rate from the App Store has caused lots of confusion and chatter about whether it will lead to the dismantling of Apple's closely-guarded, highly lucrative revenue stream.\nWe think Apple has certainly recognized the need to placate regulators about its supposed \"monopolistic\" behavior by allowing theso-called reader appsto be exempted from its commissions. Still, it is important to note that this does not affect gaming apps and in-app purchases, thus allowing Apple to continue relying on their most lucrative gaming apps to drive revenue growth.\nDespite that, therecent billby the South Korean parliament to disallow app store operators from charging commissions on in-app purchases should be carefully watched, as this may have ramifications around the world if regulators were to follow the signal from South Korea. Nevertheless, we will like to remind our readers not to overreact to such developments but to keep calm and observe. Apple didn't get to become the world's most valuable company without overcoming its fair share of regulatory issues, and we should certainly expect the management to show similar resilience and fortitude as they had in the past.\nAdvertising is the Trump Card\nWe highlighted previously in our recent article on Amazon where we discussed why advertising is the most underrated segment for the e-commerce behemoth, as it's the company's fastest-growing segment (link to the article is appendedhere).\nWe think likewise for Apple; we encourage investors never to underestimate Apple's ability to monetize its users. We have seen earlier how, despite iOS having just 26% of the global installed base, the App Store revenue easily outsized Google Play's revenue in H1'21. With a global installed base that's 1.6B and growing, there are many monetization opportunities that Apple can certainly leverage.\nFor example, in our Digital Turbine articles (the most recent one ishere), we showed how lucrative the content discovery business for APPS is, even though the company mainly worked with the Android OS. Now, the company has a full-stack ad tech platform for its expanded digital media business. Therefore, we think this is a marvelous opportunity for Apple, as the owner of the iOS ecosystem, to expand on its content discovery offerings for its app developers who want to cut through the clutter of apps to appear in front of consumers, which is a $500M business for Digital Turbine's work on the Android OS. Although it's not a big deal for Apple, it shows various opportunities for monetization that the company can expand into.\nIn addition, Apple has also been able to capitalize on Google's advertising growth by using Google as the default search engine for iOS. Based onBernstein's estimates, Google paid about $10B to Apple for that in FY20, and thus it is an important revenue driver for the services segment, besides the App Store revenue.\nImportantly, Apple's ad revenue from its own App Store is estimated to account for$3B of FY21's revenue, up from a mere $300M in FY17, a 10x growth in 4 years. We don't find the projections unreasonable if readers refer to our Amazon article. The company grew its ad revenue by a CAGR of 74% from 2017 and 2019 and by 52% YoY even during 2020's pandemic year. The advertising momentum that Amazon has experienced from its e-commerce marketplace is truly phenomenal, which generates 90% of its advertising revenue, which was worth $21.45B in FY20, up from just $4.65B in FY17.\nTherefore we think the advertising potential from the App Store ads is likely to be in the early innings of its growth, and we highly encourage investors to watch this space closely. Even though Bernstein's estimates of about $20B (4.5% of FY25 estimated revenue) worth of ad revenue by FY25 may not be a blockbuster number when we compare it to FY25's estimated revenue of $447B, this is likely going be a highly profitable segment that can garner an operating margin in the range of 35% to 40% (equivalent to about $7b to $8B in operating profits) as we demonstrated in our Amazon article. Against an estimated EBIT of $104.9B by FY25, a 7% potential contribution from advertising that is growing is definitely an important diversification from the troubles brewing over its App Store take rate, as well as a potential slowdown in growth on its hardware segments.\nApple Stock Looks Fairly Valued for Now\nEBIT multiples valuation comps set. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEBITDA multiples valuation comps set. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe think why investors have often found it challenging to understand the valuation for AAPL is because they often compared it to its smartphone peers such as Samsung(OTC:SSNLF)(KRX:A005930) or Xiaomi(OTCPK:XIACY), which trade at much lower valuation multiples (whether EBIT or EBITDA) as compared to AAPL, especially when AAPL is not expected to be growing as fast, moving forward.\nInvestors should observe that AAPL is trading as if it's a major player in the digital advertising market like its FAANG peers: Alphabet and Facebook. We think for investors to make sense of Apple's valuation, it really depends on how Apple will be able to monetize its huge installed base and grow its advertising revenue rapidly to convince investors that it's deserving of its premium price, even though it remains a highly profitable business, much more than Xiaomi.\nAAPL Street mean target price. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium\nWe decided to give AAPL the benefit of the doubt and valued the company based on its estimated FY22 trading multiples (EBIT: 20.7x, EBITDA: 18.9x) and derived an implied fair value of around $143.9 based on its EBIT and EBITDA multiples at the midpoint of its fair value range. This suggests that the stock has a potential downside of about 6% (not including the margin of safety) from its last closing price of $153.90. Readers who would like to review our valuation models can refer to themhereandhere.\nMeanwhile, based on the Street's mean target price of $164.33, the stock is valued at an FY22 implied EBIT multiple of about 22.1x, which we think looks like a premium valuation that the Street is willing to extend the Cupertino company.\nPrice Action and Trend Analysis\nAAPL stock price action (weekly).\nAAPL EV/Fwd EBIT trend.\nWhile we don't find a preferred entry point on AAPL right now, AAPL stock's long-term uptrend is unambivalent no matter how we see it. In addition, investors can easily glean from its EV/Fwd EBIT trend that the stock has never traded cheaply over the last 5 years with a mean EBIT multiple of about 14.6x, even though the market is willing to value AAPL at a much higher valuation now at 22.97x EBIT.\nTherefore, while we are excited about the company's growth prospects around its advertising segment and its App Stores potential given its huge installed base, we are wary of the valuation placed by the market on AAPL right now and encourage investors to wait for a major retracement, before considering adding new exposure to AAPL.\nAs a result, werate AAPL at neutralfor now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":28,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815912528,"gmtCreate":1630634914764,"gmtModify":1632469107767,"author":{"id":"3581738832645942","authorId":"3581738832645942","authorIdStr":"3581738832645942","name":"虎视Tan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8937bd48ee9805c92670bd1c3dd8e06","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581738832645942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815912528","repostId":"1100723445","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816392351,"gmtCreate":1630465126473,"gmtModify":1633677852772,"author":{"id":"3581738832645942","authorId":"3581738832645942","authorIdStr":"3581738832645942","name":"虎视Tan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8937bd48ee9805c92670bd1c3dd8e06","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581738832645942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👏","listText":"👏","text":"👏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816392351","repostId":"1151928105","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813972310,"gmtCreate":1630126298330,"gmtModify":1704956350304,"author":{"id":"3581738832645942","authorId":"3581738832645942","authorIdStr":"3581738832645942","name":"虎视Tan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8937bd48ee9805c92670bd1c3dd8e06","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581738832645942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good try","listText":"Good try","text":"Good try","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813972310","repostId":"1165379113","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165379113","pubTimestamp":1630075265,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1165379113?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-27 22:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Wants to Become an Electricity Retailer in Texas. What To Know.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165379113","media":"Barrons","summary":"A Tesla subsidiary has applied to become an electricity retailer in Texas, moving to widen the energ","content":"<p>A Tesla subsidiary has applied to become an electricity retailer in Texas, moving to widen the energy ambitions of Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle company in a state with a power grid that came under scrutiny after failing in a February winter storm.</p>\n<p>Tesla Energy Ventures, a subsidiary of Tesla formed in late July, wants to sell power directly to customers as a retail electricity provider, according to an August 16 filing with the Texas Public Utility Commission.</p>\n<p>Shares in Tesla were 0.6% higher in U.S. premarket trading on Friday, outpacing a rise in futures for the&nbsp;Nasdaq 100&nbsp;index, of which Tesla is a component.</p>\n<p>Tesla also intends to build two massive utility-scale batteries to serve power companies in the state, according to Texas Monthly,which first reported the news&nbsp;on Thursday and said that the filing could be approved by November.</p>\n<p>One of those batteries would reportedly be located at a gigafactory outside Austin, where the Cybertruck and Model Y SUV are slated to be built, with another located outside Houston,based on a report from Bloomberg.</p>\n<p>Texas’ deregulated power grid includes well over 100 companies selling to consumers. The state’s power system came under the spotlight this winter, when&nbsp;a February storm&nbsp;left millions without electricity for several days.</p>\n<p>Tesla hoped to enter the Texas power market earlier, before the widespread blackouts in February, according to the Texas Monthly report.</p>\n<p>The company has a history of building utility-scale power storage, with developments in California and Australia, but becoming an electricity retailer in Texas would be a significant milestone in the expansion of Tesla’s energy division.</p>\n<p>“I can’t emphasize enough, I think long term, Tesla Energy will be of roughly the same size as Tesla Automotive,” Musk told investors last summer, after the company’s second-quarter earnings in July 2020.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Wants to Become an Electricity Retailer in Texas. What To Know.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Wants to Become an Electricity Retailer in Texas. What To Know.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-27 22:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-wants-to-become-an-electricity-retailer-in-texas-what-to-know-51630066304?mod=hp_DAY_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A Tesla subsidiary has applied to become an electricity retailer in Texas, moving to widen the energy ambitions of Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle company in a state with a power grid that came under ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-wants-to-become-an-electricity-retailer-in-texas-what-to-know-51630066304?mod=hp_DAY_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-wants-to-become-an-electricity-retailer-in-texas-what-to-know-51630066304?mod=hp_DAY_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165379113","content_text":"A Tesla subsidiary has applied to become an electricity retailer in Texas, moving to widen the energy ambitions of Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle company in a state with a power grid that came under scrutiny after failing in a February winter storm.\nTesla Energy Ventures, a subsidiary of Tesla formed in late July, wants to sell power directly to customers as a retail electricity provider, according to an August 16 filing with the Texas Public Utility Commission.\nShares in Tesla were 0.6% higher in U.S. premarket trading on Friday, outpacing a rise in futures for the Nasdaq 100 index, of which Tesla is a component.\nTesla also intends to build two massive utility-scale batteries to serve power companies in the state, according to Texas Monthly,which first reported the news on Thursday and said that the filing could be approved by November.\nOne of those batteries would reportedly be located at a gigafactory outside Austin, where the Cybertruck and Model Y SUV are slated to be built, with another located outside Houston,based on a report from Bloomberg.\nTexas’ deregulated power grid includes well over 100 companies selling to consumers. The state’s power system came under the spotlight this winter, when a February storm left millions without electricity for several days.\nTesla hoped to enter the Texas power market earlier, before the widespread blackouts in February, according to the Texas Monthly report.\nThe company has a history of building utility-scale power storage, with developments in California and Australia, but becoming an electricity retailer in Texas would be a significant milestone in the expansion of Tesla’s energy division.\n“I can’t emphasize enough, I think long term, Tesla Energy will be of roughly the same size as Tesla Automotive,” Musk told investors last summer, after the company’s second-quarter earnings in July 2020.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":88,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801714428,"gmtCreate":1627534667464,"gmtModify":1633764019098,"author":{"id":"3581738832645942","authorId":"3581738832645942","authorIdStr":"3581738832645942","name":"虎视Tan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8937bd48ee9805c92670bd1c3dd8e06","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581738832645942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👏","listText":"👏","text":"👏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801714428","repostId":"2154292401","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":66,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809609826,"gmtCreate":1627362099165,"gmtModify":1633765706091,"author":{"id":"3581738832645942","authorId":"3581738832645942","authorIdStr":"3581738832645942","name":"虎视Tan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8937bd48ee9805c92670bd1c3dd8e06","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581738832645942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good move why not set sight on&nbsp;dengue","listText":"Good move why not set sight on&nbsp;dengue","text":"Good move why not set sight on dengue","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809609826","repostId":"1153403036","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153403036","pubTimestamp":1627356038,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153403036?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 11:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"After Covid, BioNTech Has Its Sights Set on Malaria","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153403036","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"BioNTech entered 2020 as a well-respected — if a bit under-the-radar — biotech company. A little mor","content":"<p>BioNTech entered 2020 as a well-respected — if a bit under-the-radar — biotech company. A little more than a year later, the firm is world-famous for creating one of the most successful coronavirus vaccines, its shares are up 150%, and co-founder Uğur Şahin is now one of the world's 500 richest people. Not too shabby.</p>\n<p>On Monday, the company announced its next quest: a solo venture to develop a shot that will prevent malaria, one of the world's deadliest diseases and a notorious enigma for vaccine producers.</p>\n<p>The Hardest Pathogen to Hack</p>\n<p>There is currently only one approved malaria vaccine. Mosquirix, developed by GlaxoSmithKline, is only 39% effective over four years. Meanwhile, there were 229 million malaria cases in 2019 — 94% of them in Africa — and 400,000 people die from the disease every year, almost all of them African children.</p>\n<p>BioNTech will develop malaria vaccine candidates using messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA), which directs the body to make parts of a virus to provoke an immune response. The firm will also produce and test other candidates at facilities in Africa:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>One such candidate, the first shot to clear the World Health Organization's 75% efficacy target, was introduced this year by the University of Oxford. It prevented 77% of cases in a study of 450 children in Burkina Faso, and a 4,800-child trial to confirm the results is in the planning stages.</li>\n <li>BioNTech is aiming to have mRNA malaria and tuberculosis vaccines ready for clinical trials next year, but said malaria could prove as difficult to research as cancer. The company has benchmarked €20 million to €50 million for early stage development.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>\"This will not be a home run,\" Şahin told the<i>Financial Times</i>. \"This is a pathogen which is really, really difficult to hack.\" Any malaria vaccine BioNTech develops will be sold in Africa on a non-profit basis, and the company is aiming for a shot that's 90% effective for one to two years.</p>\n<p><b>Invasive And Evasive:</b>Malaria is caused by a complex parasite that can potentially make thousands of antigens and has many methods of evading the immune system. Unlike many diseases, it's possible to catch again and again due to its complexity.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After Covid, BioNTech Has Its Sights Set on Malaria</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter Covid, BioNTech Has Its Sights Set on Malaria\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-27 11:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/26/after-covid-biontech-has-its-sights-set-on-malaria/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>BioNTech entered 2020 as a well-respected — if a bit under-the-radar — biotech company. A little more than a year later, the firm is world-famous for creating one of the most successful coronavirus ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/26/after-covid-biontech-has-its-sights-set-on-malaria/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BNTX":"BioNTech SE"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/26/after-covid-biontech-has-its-sights-set-on-malaria/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153403036","content_text":"BioNTech entered 2020 as a well-respected — if a bit under-the-radar — biotech company. A little more than a year later, the firm is world-famous for creating one of the most successful coronavirus vaccines, its shares are up 150%, and co-founder Uğur Şahin is now one of the world's 500 richest people. Not too shabby.\nOn Monday, the company announced its next quest: a solo venture to develop a shot that will prevent malaria, one of the world's deadliest diseases and a notorious enigma for vaccine producers.\nThe Hardest Pathogen to Hack\nThere is currently only one approved malaria vaccine. Mosquirix, developed by GlaxoSmithKline, is only 39% effective over four years. Meanwhile, there were 229 million malaria cases in 2019 — 94% of them in Africa — and 400,000 people die from the disease every year, almost all of them African children.\nBioNTech will develop malaria vaccine candidates using messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA), which directs the body to make parts of a virus to provoke an immune response. The firm will also produce and test other candidates at facilities in Africa:\n\nOne such candidate, the first shot to clear the World Health Organization's 75% efficacy target, was introduced this year by the University of Oxford. It prevented 77% of cases in a study of 450 children in Burkina Faso, and a 4,800-child trial to confirm the results is in the planning stages.\nBioNTech is aiming to have mRNA malaria and tuberculosis vaccines ready for clinical trials next year, but said malaria could prove as difficult to research as cancer. The company has benchmarked €20 million to €50 million for early stage development.\n\n\"This will not be a home run,\" Şahin told theFinancial Times. \"This is a pathogen which is really, really difficult to hack.\" Any malaria vaccine BioNTech develops will be sold in Africa on a non-profit basis, and the company is aiming for a shot that's 90% effective for one to two years.\nInvasive And Evasive:Malaria is caused by a complex parasite that can potentially make thousands of antigens and has many methods of evading the immune system. Unlike many diseases, it's possible to catch again and again due to its complexity.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177225138,"gmtCreate":1627226499324,"gmtModify":1633767042855,"author":{"id":"3581738832645942","authorId":"3581738832645942","authorIdStr":"3581738832645942","name":"虎视Tan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8937bd48ee9805c92670bd1c3dd8e06","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581738832645942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Accumulate more","listText":"Accumulate more","text":"Accumulate more","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177225138","repostId":"2153878189","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":95,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177665661,"gmtCreate":1627212133153,"gmtModify":1633767136821,"author":{"id":"3581738832645942","authorId":"3581738832645942","authorIdStr":"3581738832645942","name":"虎视Tan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8937bd48ee9805c92670bd1c3dd8e06","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581738832645942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Game over?","listText":"Game over?","text":"Game over?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177665661","repostId":"1107345366","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107345366","pubTimestamp":1627176839,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107345366?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 09:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop: The Game Is Far From Over","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107345366","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce pla","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>GameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce player.</li>\n <li>We think the company may possibly be at an inflection point, if the management team is able to successfully execute its new e-commerce pivot.</li>\n <li>In addition, we exhort the bears to pay special attention to the Reddit community, given its growing user base and influence in their investors' decision-making process.</li>\n <li>While we don't have a position in GameStop, we don't think the game is over for the company.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>The speculation fervor behind GameStop’s (GME) meteoric rise to the stratospheric levels of $480 per share last seen in Jan has subsided significantly, as the stock last traded at the $178 price level, a 63% decline from the ATH reached during the January mania.</p>\n<p>While we agree to a large extent with the Street’s valuation opinion, that this stock seems to be significantly overvalued (The Street’s mean target price is $37.5), we would also like to highlight that we don’t think we presently have a valuation model that can comprehensively incorporate the underlying factors driving the company’s stock price, and therefore would not boldly proclaim to investors who have an interest in meme stocks, to stay away from GME.</p>\n<p>We thinkeMarketerdelineated in this recent piece in June, what factors they thought could have driven the underlying demand behind meme stocks in Reddit forums like GME:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Punishing short sellers. Clover Health (CLOV) short-sellers, who believed the stock was overvalued, were down $438 million in mark-to-market losses. GameStop short sellers lost over $5 billion.Perplexing the markets “for the memes”—i.e., it’s just funny. Reddit posts on r/WallStreetBets highlight how members make seemingly irrational investment decisions for the joy of duping financial institutions.Pump and dump. The artificially inflated share prices can maximize profit for the lucky few who invest early.\n</blockquote>\n<p>We think investors who have been schooled in fundamental analysis would never be able to develop models that could fully factor in the above, as these investors think the long term value of stocks are driven by the long term strength and the competitive moat of their underlying businesses, but not with the \"ludicrous\" methods adopted by the Redditors in the way they analyze stocks.</p>\n<p>In this article, we dive deeper to look at the key fundamental drivers underpinning GME's business, and how we think the Reddit community's participation and influence in meme stocks like GME would continue to disrupt the valuation outlook for the company moving forward.</p>\n<p>What Has Changed for GameStop since the January Mania?</p>\n<p>GME recently appointed2 key veteranexecutives from Amazon (AMZN): Matt Furlong and Mike Recupero as its CEO and CFO, respectively, as part of Chairman Ryan Cohen's strategic revamp of GME's business model to pivot towards becoming a major \"e-commerce powerhouse.\"</p>\n<p>While the guidance from the new management may have been sparse so far, the team has certainly gotten down to work quickly, to put in place the necessary building blocks to gradually move GME into a major e-commerce player, as they have started to expand itsfulfillment centers, with two new recent facilities in Reno, Nevada and York, Pennsylvania, that have given the company a total capacity of more than 1.2M square feet.</p>\n<p>Ryan Cohen has also made it clear that the company wouldn't be specifying intricate details on its overhaul plans to its competitors, but instead appealing to investors to judge the team on their actions, as he emphasized:</p>\n<blockquote>\n You won’t find ustalking a big game, making a bunch of lofty promises or telegraphing our strategy to the competition...We have a lot of work in front of us. Moving forward, we want you to judge GameStop based on our actions -- not our words.\n</blockquote>\n<p>However, the Street was hardly convinced with Ryan Cohen or the company’s strategy, asWedbush Securitiesarticulated recently: “I think it got away from him. I think his ego’s gotten in the way and now he's going to prove [to] everybody [that he] knows what he's doing. If there [was] a strategy, it's shocking that he hasn't told us. We were supposed to hear about this five months ago. What is such a secret?”</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/213a840d218039b67bebc984532ecf5f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Quarterly revenues. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46f7322b39c6468f6929c1fd414921b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LTM revenue. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>We could observe that the company seems to have been able to arrest the declining trend in its revenue in Q4'21 and Q1'22 (GME defines its FY differently from its CY), which took place well before the new management was in place. The company's Q4'21 revenue of $2.12B was its strong quarter over the last 3 years, while Q1'22's revenue grew 25% YoY. Therefore, when we plotted it over an LTM basis, we think that there's hope over the horizon, that perhaps the new management team may have an encouraging start, in the company's quest to become an important e-commerce competitor. We think investors should continue monitoring this space closely, especially on the build-up of the company's fulfillment centers, which is highly integral towards its e-commerce ambitions.</p>\n<p>LTM EBIT margins trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</p>\n<p>While the company's EBIT margin trend has certainly been of major concern, we think this is an area certainly worth watching, as yet again we observed an improvement in the LTM trend, as the company posted an LTM EBIT margin of -3.5% in Q1'22, as compared to its LTM EBIT margin of -4.9% in Q4'21. While we don't think the company is out of the woods yet, but we think the company may have stopped the rot, at least for now.</p>\n<p>Debt to Equity Ratio. Source:Simply Wall St</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eaacbe2d43de887038c30e9ab4bcfa2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LTM Levered FCF margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>The company has also astutely capitalized on its share price to completetwo equity offeringsto buttress its balance sheet. As a result, the company's debt to equity ratio has improved significantly to 5.5%, with a debt balance of just $48.1M, while having a cash and ST investments balance of $694.7M (as of 1 May 21, before both equity offerings which raised a total of $1.677B, and before paring down of debt). In addition, the company has also never really been bleeding cash, as its levered FCF margins trend has always been relatively healthy while having also improved its LTM levered FCF margin at the recent quarter to 1.6%.</p>\n<p>Therefore, we think GME looks well-positioned to take advantage of its strategic overhaul towards its new e-commerce pivot if the management can successfully execute moving forward. While we are not too sure at this point on the roadmap ahead for GME, the Reddit community seems to be ready to continue supporting this company, as we shall go into detail how the Reddit community would continue to be a highly important force to be reckoned with, in their quest to bolster the stock price of the company, such that even Ryan Cohen made it a point to pay a special tribute to the Reddit community:</p>\n<blockquote>\n We’re fortunateto have such a special group of investors holding the company’s shares, you guys inspire us to think bigger, fight harder and work longer each day.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>The Reddit Community Grew by 25.9% in 2020</b></p>\n<p>US social network user growth, by platform 2020 &amp; 2021. Source:eMarketer</p>\n<p>Investors should be able to observe that Reddit posted highly remarkable growth in 2020, as users on its platform grew by 25.9% YoY, andeMarketeralso expects the Reddit community to grow by 14.4% in 2021, to reach 43.3M users. We think the increasing popularity towards the adoption of Reddit would continue to sustain investors' interest in meme stocks like GME, moving forward.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f886ecf993efe35532771c132d94a6a\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Population distribution in the US in 2019, by generation. Data source: US Census Bureau</span></p>\n<p>We believe that Reddit has certainly benefited from the secular drivers underpinning digitization, which has also led to significant growth and popularity in trading platforms like Robinhood (HOOD), where theaverage agein 2020 is 31 years old. This puts the average age of Robinhood users right within the age group of the Millennials, who were born between 1981 and 1996 (25 to 40 years old), and accounted for 21.97% of the US population, based on the 2019 census.</p>\n<p>Importantly, we could also observe that Millennial investors are interested in stocks that are not the “safe and steady” stocks that a typical investor is expected to hold if I could put it that way. We don’t think valuations form the most important considerations to these investors as we could observe from the above.</p>\n<p>According to a report byApex Clearing, Tesla (TSLA) formed the largest holdings of their Millennials portfolio in Q1’21, with a 28.3% share, a stock that we think investors would not typically say it’s cheap. While AAPL was the second-largest holding with a 14.5% share, GME also rounded up the top 4 with a 5.2% share, lending support to our opinion that Millennial investors’ motivations are driven by factors beyond just fundamentals and valuations.</p>\n<p>Among the holdings in the Millennials portfolio, we could observe many other examples that corroborate these investors' interests in premium stocks, like Nvidia (NVDA), another meme stock like AMC Entertainment (AMC), Churchill Capital Corp (CCIV), its third-largest holding; Nio (NIO), Palantir (PLTR), and even Square (SQ), stocks we think investors would not typically ascribe as value stocks.</p>\n<p>Therefore, we think the general investor community needs to understand that there’s a huge and growing base of investors whose understanding and expectations of fundamentals and valuations are certainly quite different from what our typical valuation models could account for.</p>\n<p>We think the market is definitely bigger and much more complex than what we know, and it’s just not possible to use the same fundamental analysis and valuation methods to value meme stocks like GME and say that they are way overvalued, a process that we honestly think is quite meaningless in the world of meme stocks investment.</p>\n<p><b>Analyzing the Reddit Opinion</b></p>\n<p>Individual investors’ opinion on Reddit after GameStop short squeeze in the US, UK, and Canada as of Feb 21, by age. Data source:Brunswick</p>\n<p>According to a survey by Brunswick, we could observe the importance of the Reddit forums as an investment tool for investors, especially among the younger investors within the age group of 18-29 years old. About 14% of all investors “trust Reddit as a media alternative,” and the share even shot up to 31% among the younger investors. In addition, a good proportion (25%) of the younger investors also took part in the GME opportunities, while 20% of them think that the GME events “represent a fundamental shift of power in the market.” While these opinions may belong within the minority of investors, we think the proportion of investors is certainly large enough to raise the eyebrows of the general investment community, and therefore we think the power of the Reddit forums is certainly a force to be reckoned with moving ahead.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa3108c1a56bc4c6221a4d8297e018d3\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Share of institutional investors using Reddit to investigate an issue in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e72f250f4fe70ca9af575b6828bace0d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Average trust score assigned by institutional investors to Reddit in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick</span></p>\n<p>We could observe Reddit’s increasing influence even among institutional investors, as 27% of them used Reddit to “investigate an issue”, which increased discernibly from the previous years, even though their trust in the platform dropped markedly from an average score of 3.5 in 2019 to 2.0 in 2021. We think this shows that institutional investors consider Reddit’s increasing influence in the general investment community’s decision-making process, but they don’t trust those things going on in those forums as meaningful enough for their \"well-developed\" processes, as compared to individual investors shown earlier.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a87f8665c27d127566189bd21a035158\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Institutional investors' attitude towards members of the Reddit wallstreetbets community. Data source: Brunswick</span></p>\n<p>While 48% of institutional investors think that the Redditors “might have a short term influence, but they won’t be able to sustain it,” 27% developed some curiosity regarding Reddit influence among the investors’ community, and 13% of them developed some form of respect for the way the Redditors were able to amass an army to outgun some of Wall Street’s brightest minds. We were therefore not surprised to find that 20% of these institutional investors were frustrated with what they considered as “market manipulation” by the Redditors.</p>\n<p><b>Looking Ahead</b></p>\n<p>Ownership breakdown. Source:Simply Wall St</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1dd4930d00083121d28ea6d57285bc5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Institutional ownership changes. Source:Marketbeat</span></p>\n<p>Moving forward, we think meme stocks like GME would continue to feature prominently within the Reddit forums and remain one of their “flagship” stocks in their fight against the Street. Retail investors now hold the largest share of ownership of GME stock, accounting for 45.1% of total ownership. Interestingly, there’s still a sizable proportion (36.4%) of institutional investors that remain vested in GME, which includes GME’s largest shareholder: Blackrock, which owns 12.36% of GME stock. While GME witnessed a significant outflow of $1.93B of institutional capital in Q2’21, the stock price remained well above the closing price of $17.25, on the first trading day of 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a708e62291662e5d4e2bce79492dc93a\" tg-width=\"1244\" tg-height=\"656\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Percentage of float shorted over time. Source:Marketbeat</span></p>\n<p>Importantly, the price continues to be sustained even though the short percentage of float has dropped significantly from 41.96% in Jan, to “just” 14.18% at the end of June, its lowest recorded two-week period in 2021.</p>\n<p>Other than the 45.1% of retail investors who are vested in GME, the stock is also supported by Ryan Cohen’s 12.13% share, which makes him the second-largest shareholder of GME stock, behind Blackrock, even though the purchase price for his last batch of 1.274M shares in Dec 20 is about $14.24, which certainly gives him a huge margin of safety if we consider GME’s last closing price of $178.85.</p>\n<p><b>Price Action and Trend Analysis</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe5e54ac5cfe6504ec07c334a8c52668\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"786\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p>\n<p>Ever since the mania we witnessed at the start of the year, GME has settled down and seems to have developed an uptrend bias, with a support level that has attracted strong buying interest between the $130 and $160 price level previously. It is a level that we expect the buyers to continue defending strongly, based on our price action analysis. For investors who are keen to take a position in GME, we think they may consider an entry within that buy range that we highlighted.</p>\n<p>While we are convinced that the volatility in GameStop’s price is likely to continue moving ahead, we think the stock has incredibly found huge buying interest among the retail community that has shaken the foundations of the institutional investors, asStenham Asset Managementarticulated:</p>\n<blockquote>\n \"In the current environment, you are being negligent if you don’t measure and manage your exposure on the short side to both crowding and retail interest,\" and we think one of the multibillion-dollar US hedge fund also succinctly summed up the rising influence of the Reddit community: “[We] are absolutely looking at forums such as WSB, we are monitoring that extremely closely.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>In GameStop, we think the game is certainly far from being over.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop: The Game Is Far From Over\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-25 09:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441170-gamestop-the-game-is-far-from-over><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nGameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce player.\nWe think the company may possibly be at an inflection point, if the management team is able to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441170-gamestop-the-game-is-far-from-over\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441170-gamestop-the-game-is-far-from-over","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107345366","content_text":"Summary\n\nGameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce player.\nWe think the company may possibly be at an inflection point, if the management team is able to successfully execute its new e-commerce pivot.\nIn addition, we exhort the bears to pay special attention to the Reddit community, given its growing user base and influence in their investors' decision-making process.\nWhile we don't have a position in GameStop, we don't think the game is over for the company.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nThe speculation fervor behind GameStop’s (GME) meteoric rise to the stratospheric levels of $480 per share last seen in Jan has subsided significantly, as the stock last traded at the $178 price level, a 63% decline from the ATH reached during the January mania.\nWhile we agree to a large extent with the Street’s valuation opinion, that this stock seems to be significantly overvalued (The Street’s mean target price is $37.5), we would also like to highlight that we don’t think we presently have a valuation model that can comprehensively incorporate the underlying factors driving the company’s stock price, and therefore would not boldly proclaim to investors who have an interest in meme stocks, to stay away from GME.\nWe thinkeMarketerdelineated in this recent piece in June, what factors they thought could have driven the underlying demand behind meme stocks in Reddit forums like GME:\n\n Punishing short sellers. Clover Health (CLOV) short-sellers, who believed the stock was overvalued, were down $438 million in mark-to-market losses. GameStop short sellers lost over $5 billion.Perplexing the markets “for the memes”—i.e., it’s just funny. Reddit posts on r/WallStreetBets highlight how members make seemingly irrational investment decisions for the joy of duping financial institutions.Pump and dump. The artificially inflated share prices can maximize profit for the lucky few who invest early.\n\nWe think investors who have been schooled in fundamental analysis would never be able to develop models that could fully factor in the above, as these investors think the long term value of stocks are driven by the long term strength and the competitive moat of their underlying businesses, but not with the \"ludicrous\" methods adopted by the Redditors in the way they analyze stocks.\nIn this article, we dive deeper to look at the key fundamental drivers underpinning GME's business, and how we think the Reddit community's participation and influence in meme stocks like GME would continue to disrupt the valuation outlook for the company moving forward.\nWhat Has Changed for GameStop since the January Mania?\nGME recently appointed2 key veteranexecutives from Amazon (AMZN): Matt Furlong and Mike Recupero as its CEO and CFO, respectively, as part of Chairman Ryan Cohen's strategic revamp of GME's business model to pivot towards becoming a major \"e-commerce powerhouse.\"\nWhile the guidance from the new management may have been sparse so far, the team has certainly gotten down to work quickly, to put in place the necessary building blocks to gradually move GME into a major e-commerce player, as they have started to expand itsfulfillment centers, with two new recent facilities in Reno, Nevada and York, Pennsylvania, that have given the company a total capacity of more than 1.2M square feet.\nRyan Cohen has also made it clear that the company wouldn't be specifying intricate details on its overhaul plans to its competitors, but instead appealing to investors to judge the team on their actions, as he emphasized:\n\n You won’t find ustalking a big game, making a bunch of lofty promises or telegraphing our strategy to the competition...We have a lot of work in front of us. Moving forward, we want you to judge GameStop based on our actions -- not our words.\n\nHowever, the Street was hardly convinced with Ryan Cohen or the company’s strategy, asWedbush Securitiesarticulated recently: “I think it got away from him. I think his ego’s gotten in the way and now he's going to prove [to] everybody [that he] knows what he's doing. If there [was] a strategy, it's shocking that he hasn't told us. We were supposed to hear about this five months ago. What is such a secret?”\nQuarterly revenues. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nLTM revenue. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe that the company seems to have been able to arrest the declining trend in its revenue in Q4'21 and Q1'22 (GME defines its FY differently from its CY), which took place well before the new management was in place. The company's Q4'21 revenue of $2.12B was its strong quarter over the last 3 years, while Q1'22's revenue grew 25% YoY. Therefore, when we plotted it over an LTM basis, we think that there's hope over the horizon, that perhaps the new management team may have an encouraging start, in the company's quest to become an important e-commerce competitor. We think investors should continue monitoring this space closely, especially on the build-up of the company's fulfillment centers, which is highly integral towards its e-commerce ambitions.\nLTM EBIT margins trend. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhile the company's EBIT margin trend has certainly been of major concern, we think this is an area certainly worth watching, as yet again we observed an improvement in the LTM trend, as the company posted an LTM EBIT margin of -3.5% in Q1'22, as compared to its LTM EBIT margin of -4.9% in Q4'21. While we don't think the company is out of the woods yet, but we think the company may have stopped the rot, at least for now.\nDebt to Equity Ratio. Source:Simply Wall St\nLTM Levered FCF margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nThe company has also astutely capitalized on its share price to completetwo equity offeringsto buttress its balance sheet. As a result, the company's debt to equity ratio has improved significantly to 5.5%, with a debt balance of just $48.1M, while having a cash and ST investments balance of $694.7M (as of 1 May 21, before both equity offerings which raised a total of $1.677B, and before paring down of debt). In addition, the company has also never really been bleeding cash, as its levered FCF margins trend has always been relatively healthy while having also improved its LTM levered FCF margin at the recent quarter to 1.6%.\nTherefore, we think GME looks well-positioned to take advantage of its strategic overhaul towards its new e-commerce pivot if the management can successfully execute moving forward. While we are not too sure at this point on the roadmap ahead for GME, the Reddit community seems to be ready to continue supporting this company, as we shall go into detail how the Reddit community would continue to be a highly important force to be reckoned with, in their quest to bolster the stock price of the company, such that even Ryan Cohen made it a point to pay a special tribute to the Reddit community:\n\n We’re fortunateto have such a special group of investors holding the company’s shares, you guys inspire us to think bigger, fight harder and work longer each day.\n\nThe Reddit Community Grew by 25.9% in 2020\nUS social network user growth, by platform 2020 & 2021. Source:eMarketer\nInvestors should be able to observe that Reddit posted highly remarkable growth in 2020, as users on its platform grew by 25.9% YoY, andeMarketeralso expects the Reddit community to grow by 14.4% in 2021, to reach 43.3M users. We think the increasing popularity towards the adoption of Reddit would continue to sustain investors' interest in meme stocks like GME, moving forward.\nPopulation distribution in the US in 2019, by generation. Data source: US Census Bureau\nWe believe that Reddit has certainly benefited from the secular drivers underpinning digitization, which has also led to significant growth and popularity in trading platforms like Robinhood (HOOD), where theaverage agein 2020 is 31 years old. This puts the average age of Robinhood users right within the age group of the Millennials, who were born between 1981 and 1996 (25 to 40 years old), and accounted for 21.97% of the US population, based on the 2019 census.\nImportantly, we could also observe that Millennial investors are interested in stocks that are not the “safe and steady” stocks that a typical investor is expected to hold if I could put it that way. We don’t think valuations form the most important considerations to these investors as we could observe from the above.\nAccording to a report byApex Clearing, Tesla (TSLA) formed the largest holdings of their Millennials portfolio in Q1’21, with a 28.3% share, a stock that we think investors would not typically say it’s cheap. While AAPL was the second-largest holding with a 14.5% share, GME also rounded up the top 4 with a 5.2% share, lending support to our opinion that Millennial investors’ motivations are driven by factors beyond just fundamentals and valuations.\nAmong the holdings in the Millennials portfolio, we could observe many other examples that corroborate these investors' interests in premium stocks, like Nvidia (NVDA), another meme stock like AMC Entertainment (AMC), Churchill Capital Corp (CCIV), its third-largest holding; Nio (NIO), Palantir (PLTR), and even Square (SQ), stocks we think investors would not typically ascribe as value stocks.\nTherefore, we think the general investor community needs to understand that there’s a huge and growing base of investors whose understanding and expectations of fundamentals and valuations are certainly quite different from what our typical valuation models could account for.\nWe think the market is definitely bigger and much more complex than what we know, and it’s just not possible to use the same fundamental analysis and valuation methods to value meme stocks like GME and say that they are way overvalued, a process that we honestly think is quite meaningless in the world of meme stocks investment.\nAnalyzing the Reddit Opinion\nIndividual investors’ opinion on Reddit after GameStop short squeeze in the US, UK, and Canada as of Feb 21, by age. Data source:Brunswick\nAccording to a survey by Brunswick, we could observe the importance of the Reddit forums as an investment tool for investors, especially among the younger investors within the age group of 18-29 years old. About 14% of all investors “trust Reddit as a media alternative,” and the share even shot up to 31% among the younger investors. In addition, a good proportion (25%) of the younger investors also took part in the GME opportunities, while 20% of them think that the GME events “represent a fundamental shift of power in the market.” While these opinions may belong within the minority of investors, we think the proportion of investors is certainly large enough to raise the eyebrows of the general investment community, and therefore we think the power of the Reddit forums is certainly a force to be reckoned with moving ahead.\nShare of institutional investors using Reddit to investigate an issue in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick\nAverage trust score assigned by institutional investors to Reddit in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick\nWe could observe Reddit’s increasing influence even among institutional investors, as 27% of them used Reddit to “investigate an issue”, which increased discernibly from the previous years, even though their trust in the platform dropped markedly from an average score of 3.5 in 2019 to 2.0 in 2021. We think this shows that institutional investors consider Reddit’s increasing influence in the general investment community’s decision-making process, but they don’t trust those things going on in those forums as meaningful enough for their \"well-developed\" processes, as compared to individual investors shown earlier.\nInstitutional investors' attitude towards members of the Reddit wallstreetbets community. Data source: Brunswick\nWhile 48% of institutional investors think that the Redditors “might have a short term influence, but they won’t be able to sustain it,” 27% developed some curiosity regarding Reddit influence among the investors’ community, and 13% of them developed some form of respect for the way the Redditors were able to amass an army to outgun some of Wall Street’s brightest minds. We were therefore not surprised to find that 20% of these institutional investors were frustrated with what they considered as “market manipulation” by the Redditors.\nLooking Ahead\nOwnership breakdown. Source:Simply Wall St\nInstitutional ownership changes. Source:Marketbeat\nMoving forward, we think meme stocks like GME would continue to feature prominently within the Reddit forums and remain one of their “flagship” stocks in their fight against the Street. Retail investors now hold the largest share of ownership of GME stock, accounting for 45.1% of total ownership. Interestingly, there’s still a sizable proportion (36.4%) of institutional investors that remain vested in GME, which includes GME’s largest shareholder: Blackrock, which owns 12.36% of GME stock. While GME witnessed a significant outflow of $1.93B of institutional capital in Q2’21, the stock price remained well above the closing price of $17.25, on the first trading day of 2021.\nPercentage of float shorted over time. Source:Marketbeat\nImportantly, the price continues to be sustained even though the short percentage of float has dropped significantly from 41.96% in Jan, to “just” 14.18% at the end of June, its lowest recorded two-week period in 2021.\nOther than the 45.1% of retail investors who are vested in GME, the stock is also supported by Ryan Cohen’s 12.13% share, which makes him the second-largest shareholder of GME stock, behind Blackrock, even though the purchase price for his last batch of 1.274M shares in Dec 20 is about $14.24, which certainly gives him a huge margin of safety if we consider GME’s last closing price of $178.85.\nPrice Action and Trend Analysis\nSource: TradingView\nEver since the mania we witnessed at the start of the year, GME has settled down and seems to have developed an uptrend bias, with a support level that has attracted strong buying interest between the $130 and $160 price level previously. It is a level that we expect the buyers to continue defending strongly, based on our price action analysis. For investors who are keen to take a position in GME, we think they may consider an entry within that buy range that we highlighted.\nWhile we are convinced that the volatility in GameStop’s price is likely to continue moving ahead, we think the stock has incredibly found huge buying interest among the retail community that has shaken the foundations of the institutional investors, asStenham Asset Managementarticulated:\n\n \"In the current environment, you are being negligent if you don’t measure and manage your exposure on the short side to both crowding and retail interest,\" and we think one of the multibillion-dollar US hedge fund also succinctly summed up the rising influence of the Reddit community: “[We] are absolutely looking at forums such as WSB, we are monitoring that extremely closely.”\n\nIn GameStop, we think the game is certainly far from being over.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177662993,"gmtCreate":1627211915712,"gmtModify":1633767137985,"author":{"id":"3581738832645942","authorId":"3581738832645942","authorIdStr":"3581738832645942","name":"虎视Tan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8937bd48ee9805c92670bd1c3dd8e06","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581738832645942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can’t decide, buy both&nbsp;","listText":"Can’t decide, buy both&nbsp;","text":"Can’t decide, buy both","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177662993","repostId":"2153350439","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153350439","pubTimestamp":1627177056,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2153350439?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Better Buy: Nvidia vs. Micron Technology","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153350439","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Which of these two high-growth chipmakers deserves your money?","content":"<p>Chipmakers <b>Nvidia</b> (NASDAQ:NVDA) and <b>Micron Technology</b> (NASDAQ:MU) have had very different experiences on the stock market so far in 2021, even though both companies have been delivering stellar results quarter after quarter. While Nvidia stock has handily beaten the market, Micron shares have remained nearly flat thus far.</p>\n<p>Is this a signal that investors should start dumping Micron stock and load up on Nvidia? Well, like many market questions, this <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> doesn't have a simple answer. Here's what investors need to know.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8cb26fa463f644e155f261e6a69f336\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"387\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>^SPX data by YCharts</span></p>\n<h2>The case for Micron Technology</h2>\n<p>Micron Technology is benefiting from the terrific demand for memory chips. The memory specialist's revenue jumped 36% year over year in the fiscal third quarter (ended June 3, 2021), while earnings more than doubled to $1.88 per share from $0.82 per share in the prior-year period.</p>\n<p>Micron's fourth-quarter guidance suggests that it isn't going to run out of steam anytime soon. The company's $8.2 billion revenue guidance for this quarter would translate into a 36% year-over-year gain, while the $2.30 per share adjusted earnings forecast means that its bottom line is on track to more than double from the prior-year period's $1.08 per&nbsp;share.</p>\n<p>However, the market hasn't appreciated this terrific growth, as the muted stock price performance shows. But that may not be the case forever, as Micron is sitting on a bunch of solid catalysts, which seem strong enough to help it maintain its high levels of growth in the long run.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d37411519d470ff3c53a15776d3013c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Micron's compute and networking business unit (CNBU), which is its largest source of revenue and accounts for 44.5% of its top line, witnessed nearly 49% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3. Micron caters to the personal computer (PC), cloud server, enterprise, graphics, and networking markets through this segment. There is great demand for memory chips in all these markets, which is leading to tight supplies and higher prices.</p>\n<p>Memory market research firm TrendForce estimates that the price of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) could increase between 3% and 8% in the third quarter of the calendar year over Q2. The price increase is a result of strong server and PC DRAM demand and constrained supply.</p>\n<p>Similarly, the demand for NAND flash has also remained high due to the increased adoption of SSDs (solid-state drives) in both consumer PCs and enterprise hardware. A tight supply means that the price of NAND flash memory is expected to increase between 5% and 10% this quarter, which bodes well for Micron's storage business unit (SBU). The segment produced 13% of Micron's top line last quarter, and its revenue was flat year over year at $1 billion -- but it could improve given the end-market dynamics.</p>\n<p>The mobile business unit, meanwhile, has hit a purple patch. Its revenue increased 31% year over year in Q3 thanks to the ramp-up in 5G smartphone demand. With 5G smartphones expected to increase at a whopping pace in the next five years, Micron's mobile business has room to run higher.</p>\n<p>The robust memory demand isn't going to go away anytime soon. According to a third-party forecast, memory chip demand is expected to increase 31.7% in 2021, followed by a double-digit increase in 2022, which explains why analysts expect&nbsp;Micron's growth to pick up the pace next fiscal year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11c5f766491fbfe99b0a6f8d1f0d45f6\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MU Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts</span></p>\n<h2>The case for Nvidia</h2>\n<p>Nvidia's stock market returns in 2021 have been driven by the company's outstanding results. The graphics specialist is growing at a much faster pace than Micron, with its fiscal first-quarter revenue jumping 84% year over year to $5.66 billion. Tremendous demand for Nvidia's graphics cards, which are used in PCs, sent its video gaming revenue soaring. The segment's revenue doubled year over year and accounted for close to half of its top line.</p>\n<p>There are two reasons why the video gaming segment is set for terrific growth in the long haul. First, Nvidia dominates this market with a market share of 81%, according to Jon Peddie Research. It is also worth noting that the chipmaker has substantially increased its presence in the gaming laptop market.</p>\n<p>The company's dominant position in the gaming graphics card market brings us to the second reason why this segment is built for growth. Jon Peddie Research estimates that gaming graphics cards could generate $54 billion in revenue by 2025, which would be a big jump over last year's sales of $23.6 billion. Nvidia sold&nbsp;$7.76 billion worth of graphics cards in fiscal 2021, so the additional revenue opportunity on offer and the company's huge market share indicates that this business still has a lot of room for growth.</p>\n<p>There's a similar story to Nvidia's data center business, which is its second-largest source of revenue. The segment's revenue shot up 79% year over year in Q1, crossing $2 billion in quarterly sales for the first&nbsp;time. With the data center accelerator market expected to clock $53 billion in annual revenue by the end of 2027, according to a third-party estimate, the segment's growth streak seems sustainable.</p>\n<p>Nvidia is doing well in the market for data center graphics processing units (GPUs), with large cloud service providers preferring to use the company's chips to accelerate workloads. The data center GPU market alone is expected to generate $20 billion in revenue by 2027. Nvidia sold almost $6.7 billion worth of data center GPUs last fiscal year, and the massive revenue opportunity points toward more upside in this business.</p>\n<p>Throw in the fact that Nvidia is now moving to tap the other fast-growing niches of the data center accelerator market, such as server central processing units (CPUs) and data processing units (DPUs), and it becomes easier to see why this segment probably won't run out of steam. Such solid growth drivers make it clear why Nvidia's earnings are expected to jump substantially in the future at an annual pace of nearly 27%.</p>\n<h2>The verdict</h2>\n<p>It is evident that both Nvidia and Micron Technology have impressive catalysts that could help them sustain their impressive pace of growth. Value-oriented investors, however, may lean toward buying Micron stock, as it trades at just 20 times trailing earnings, compared to Nvidia's multiple of nearly 91.</p>\n<p>But then, Nvidia is growing at a much faster rate than Micron, as we saw above, which is why its premium seems justified. Additionally, Nvidia dominates its space, while Micron faces competition from the likes of <b>SK Hynix</b> and <b>Samsung</b>. Micron reportedly controls 23.5% of the DRAM market, which makes it a smaller player than the other two, while it stands in fourth position in the NAND market, with a share of just&nbsp;11.2%.</p>\n<p>That's why investors with a higher risk tolerance might want to consider buying Nvidia stock to benefit from the tech giant's supremacy in graphics cards, as it seems capable of outperforming Micron in the future like it has done so far this year.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Better Buy: Nvidia vs. Micron Technology</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBetter Buy: Nvidia vs. Micron Technology\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-25 09:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/24/better-buy-nvidia-vs-micron-technology/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Chipmakers Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) have had very different experiences on the stock market so far in 2021, even though both companies have been delivering stellar ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/24/better-buy-nvidia-vs-micron-technology/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/24/better-buy-nvidia-vs-micron-technology/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153350439","content_text":"Chipmakers Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) have had very different experiences on the stock market so far in 2021, even though both companies have been delivering stellar results quarter after quarter. While Nvidia stock has handily beaten the market, Micron shares have remained nearly flat thus far.\nIs this a signal that investors should start dumping Micron stock and load up on Nvidia? Well, like many market questions, this one doesn't have a simple answer. Here's what investors need to know.\n^SPX data by YCharts\nThe case for Micron Technology\nMicron Technology is benefiting from the terrific demand for memory chips. The memory specialist's revenue jumped 36% year over year in the fiscal third quarter (ended June 3, 2021), while earnings more than doubled to $1.88 per share from $0.82 per share in the prior-year period.\nMicron's fourth-quarter guidance suggests that it isn't going to run out of steam anytime soon. The company's $8.2 billion revenue guidance for this quarter would translate into a 36% year-over-year gain, while the $2.30 per share adjusted earnings forecast means that its bottom line is on track to more than double from the prior-year period's $1.08 per share.\nHowever, the market hasn't appreciated this terrific growth, as the muted stock price performance shows. But that may not be the case forever, as Micron is sitting on a bunch of solid catalysts, which seem strong enough to help it maintain its high levels of growth in the long run.\nImage source: Getty Images\nMicron's compute and networking business unit (CNBU), which is its largest source of revenue and accounts for 44.5% of its top line, witnessed nearly 49% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3. Micron caters to the personal computer (PC), cloud server, enterprise, graphics, and networking markets through this segment. There is great demand for memory chips in all these markets, which is leading to tight supplies and higher prices.\nMemory market research firm TrendForce estimates that the price of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) could increase between 3% and 8% in the third quarter of the calendar year over Q2. The price increase is a result of strong server and PC DRAM demand and constrained supply.\nSimilarly, the demand for NAND flash has also remained high due to the increased adoption of SSDs (solid-state drives) in both consumer PCs and enterprise hardware. A tight supply means that the price of NAND flash memory is expected to increase between 5% and 10% this quarter, which bodes well for Micron's storage business unit (SBU). The segment produced 13% of Micron's top line last quarter, and its revenue was flat year over year at $1 billion -- but it could improve given the end-market dynamics.\nThe mobile business unit, meanwhile, has hit a purple patch. Its revenue increased 31% year over year in Q3 thanks to the ramp-up in 5G smartphone demand. With 5G smartphones expected to increase at a whopping pace in the next five years, Micron's mobile business has room to run higher.\nThe robust memory demand isn't going to go away anytime soon. According to a third-party forecast, memory chip demand is expected to increase 31.7% in 2021, followed by a double-digit increase in 2022, which explains why analysts expect Micron's growth to pick up the pace next fiscal year.\nMU Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts\nThe case for Nvidia\nNvidia's stock market returns in 2021 have been driven by the company's outstanding results. The graphics specialist is growing at a much faster pace than Micron, with its fiscal first-quarter revenue jumping 84% year over year to $5.66 billion. Tremendous demand for Nvidia's graphics cards, which are used in PCs, sent its video gaming revenue soaring. The segment's revenue doubled year over year and accounted for close to half of its top line.\nThere are two reasons why the video gaming segment is set for terrific growth in the long haul. First, Nvidia dominates this market with a market share of 81%, according to Jon Peddie Research. It is also worth noting that the chipmaker has substantially increased its presence in the gaming laptop market.\nThe company's dominant position in the gaming graphics card market brings us to the second reason why this segment is built for growth. Jon Peddie Research estimates that gaming graphics cards could generate $54 billion in revenue by 2025, which would be a big jump over last year's sales of $23.6 billion. Nvidia sold $7.76 billion worth of graphics cards in fiscal 2021, so the additional revenue opportunity on offer and the company's huge market share indicates that this business still has a lot of room for growth.\nThere's a similar story to Nvidia's data center business, which is its second-largest source of revenue. The segment's revenue shot up 79% year over year in Q1, crossing $2 billion in quarterly sales for the first time. With the data center accelerator market expected to clock $53 billion in annual revenue by the end of 2027, according to a third-party estimate, the segment's growth streak seems sustainable.\nNvidia is doing well in the market for data center graphics processing units (GPUs), with large cloud service providers preferring to use the company's chips to accelerate workloads. The data center GPU market alone is expected to generate $20 billion in revenue by 2027. Nvidia sold almost $6.7 billion worth of data center GPUs last fiscal year, and the massive revenue opportunity points toward more upside in this business.\nThrow in the fact that Nvidia is now moving to tap the other fast-growing niches of the data center accelerator market, such as server central processing units (CPUs) and data processing units (DPUs), and it becomes easier to see why this segment probably won't run out of steam. Such solid growth drivers make it clear why Nvidia's earnings are expected to jump substantially in the future at an annual pace of nearly 27%.\nThe verdict\nIt is evident that both Nvidia and Micron Technology have impressive catalysts that could help them sustain their impressive pace of growth. Value-oriented investors, however, may lean toward buying Micron stock, as it trades at just 20 times trailing earnings, compared to Nvidia's multiple of nearly 91.\nBut then, Nvidia is growing at a much faster rate than Micron, as we saw above, which is why its premium seems justified. Additionally, Nvidia dominates its space, while Micron faces competition from the likes of SK Hynix and Samsung. Micron reportedly controls 23.5% of the DRAM market, which makes it a smaller player than the other two, while it stands in fourth position in the NAND market, with a share of just 11.2%.\nThat's why investors with a higher risk tolerance might want to consider buying Nvidia stock to benefit from the tech giant's supremacy in graphics cards, as it seems capable of outperforming Micron in the future like it has done so far this year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":100,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177668185,"gmtCreate":1627211574347,"gmtModify":1633767139671,"author":{"id":"3581738832645942","authorId":"3581738832645942","authorIdStr":"3581738832645942","name":"虎视Tan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8937bd48ee9805c92670bd1c3dd8e06","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581738832645942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read 👍","listText":"Read 👍","text":"Read 👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177668185","repostId":"1153219140","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":26,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177684423,"gmtCreate":1627210641162,"gmtModify":1631885569480,"author":{"id":"3581738832645942","authorId":"3581738832645942","authorIdStr":"3581738832645942","name":"虎视Tan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8937bd48ee9805c92670bd1c3dd8e06","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581738832645942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Square 👍","listText":"Square 👍","text":"Square 👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177684423","repostId":"2153936352","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153936352","pubTimestamp":1627180340,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2153936352?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 10:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will Square Be Worth More Than PayPal by 2025?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153936352","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Could the ambitious fintech company overtake the market leader?","content":"<p><b>Square</b> (NYSE:SQ) and <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a></b> (NASDAQ:PYPL) have both generated massive returns for patient investors over the past few years. Square went public at $9 per share in late 2015, and it's now trading at around $260. PayPal, which was spun off from<b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a> </b>(NASDAQ:EBAY) earlier that year, has advanced more than 720% since its debut to over $300 per share.</p>\n<p>Square is worth nearly $120 billion as of this writing, while PayPal is worth over $350 billion. That isn't surprising, since PayPal still serves a much larger audience and operates in more countries than Square. But gazing into the future, could Square eventually match -- or even surpass -- PayPal's valuation by 2025? Let's examine both fintech companies' growth trajectories and valuations to find out.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3384d45efb17ed54b398c7dbcc043fb\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2><b>Wild ambitions vs. stable growth</b></h2>\n<p>Square and PayPal's core business models are similar. Both companies charge businesses flat fees, which vary by platform and transaction type, to process payments. Both companies offer small business loans. Square's Cash App and PayPal's Venmo both enable consumers to make peer-to-peer payments, and both companies provide branded debit cards that are linked to users' online accounts.</p>\n<p>But Square has been willing to take bolder risks than PayPal over the past few years. It expanded its services ecosystem with online payroll management services and analytics tools, and recently launched a full suite of online banking services. Square also added <b>Bitcoin</b> (CRYPTO:BTC) purchases to its Cash App in 2018, added free stock trades to the app to challenge Robinhood in 2019, and plans to add Credit Karma's tax filing services to its ecosystem in the near future.</p>\n<p>PayPal only started offering cryptocurrency trades last October, and it doesn't have any near-term plans to launch stock trading tools or dedicated tax filing services, or expand into a full-blown online bank like Square. Simply put, Square seems to have wilder and grander ambitions than PayPal.</p>\n<h2>Which company is growing faster?</h2>\n<p>Between 2015 and 2020, Square grew its annual revenue at a CAGR of 49.6%. Excluding its massive gain in Bitcoin revenue last year, it would still have grown its revenue at a CAGR of 31.2% over the past five years. PayPal's annual revenue grew at a CAGR of 18.5% between 2015 and 2020. Let's take a look at Wall Street's expectations for both companies over the next two years.</p>\n<table border=\"1\" width=\"600\">\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr valign=\"TOP\">\n   <th width=\"118\"><p>Company</p></th>\n   <th width=\"213\"><p>Estimated Sales Growth (FY 2021)</p></th>\n   <th width=\"225\"><p>Estimated Sales Growth(FY 2022)</p></th>\n  </tr>\n  <tr valign=\"TOP\">\n   <td width=\"118\"><p><b>Square</b></p></td>\n   <td width=\"213\"><p>110.6%</p></td>\n   <td width=\"225\"><p>14.1%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr valign=\"TOP\">\n   <td width=\"118\"><p><b>PayPal</b></p></td>\n   <td width=\"213\"><p>20.6%</p></td>\n   <td width=\"225\"><p>21.5%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Source: Yahoo Finance, July 22.</p>\n<p>Analysts expect Square's Bitcoin revenue to continue rising this year before cooling off next year. They also expect its growth in transaction-based and seller service revenue, which slowed down during the pandemic, to recover as more businesses reopen. The Cash App, which grew its monthly active users 50% to 36 million in 2020, should also keep expanding as Square adds new services.</p>\n<p>Cathie Wood's ARK Invest expects Square's transaction-based and seller service revenues to grow at a CAGR of 19% through 2025. It also expects the Cash App's MAUs to more than double to 75 million, for Square to monetize roughly 40% of those users, and for its average revenue per Cash App user to grow from $25 in 2019 to $260 in 2025 -- which would represent a whopping CAGR of 49%.</p>\n<p>PayPal's growth should remain more predictable, since it doesn't generate significant revenue from cryptocurrencies yet. Instead, it will mainly rely on its growth in active accounts, which rose 21% year-over-year to 392 million last quarter, to generate stable revenue from its processing fees.</p>\n<p>PayPal expects to nearly double its active accounts to 750 million and <i>more than double</i> its annual revenue to over $50 billion by 2025. It also plans to grow its earnings at a CAGR of 22% from 2020 to 2025. It believes the rising acceptance of QR codes and NFC payments, the expansion of its financial services, and higher engagement rates for its apps will all drive that long-term growth.</p>\n<h2>Will Square be worth more than PayPal by 2025?</h2>\n<p>In a best-case scenario, ARK Invest believes Square's stock could hit $500 per share by 2025 if it hits its growth targets. But unlike PayPal, Square hasn't provided any concrete targets of its own yet.</p>\n<p>If Square hits $500 and its valuations hold steady, it could be worth just over $200 billion by 2025. Meanwhile, if PayPal achieves its goals of more than doubling its annual revenue and growing its EPS at a CAGR of 22% through 2025, its stock could easily double and boost its market cap to $700 billion.</p>\n<p>Therefore, it's doubtful that Square -- which already trades at higher valuations than PayPal -- will be the more valuable company by 2025. But that doesn't mean PayPal is necessarily a better growth stock than Square. I personally own Square instead of PayPal, because I admire its ambitious and forward-thinking strategies. Both stocks are still great long-term investments on the booming fintech market, so investors shouldn't fret too much over which company has the higher market cap.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Square Be Worth More Than PayPal by 2025?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Square Be Worth More Than PayPal by 2025?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-25 10:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/24/will-square-be-worth-more-than-paypal-by-2025/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Square (NYSE:SQ) and PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) have both generated massive returns for patient investors over the past few years. Square went public at $9 per share in late 2015, and it's now trading at ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/24/will-square-be-worth-more-than-paypal-by-2025/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SQ":"Block","PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/24/will-square-be-worth-more-than-paypal-by-2025/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153936352","content_text":"Square (NYSE:SQ) and PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) have both generated massive returns for patient investors over the past few years. Square went public at $9 per share in late 2015, and it's now trading at around $260. PayPal, which was spun off from eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) earlier that year, has advanced more than 720% since its debut to over $300 per share.\nSquare is worth nearly $120 billion as of this writing, while PayPal is worth over $350 billion. That isn't surprising, since PayPal still serves a much larger audience and operates in more countries than Square. But gazing into the future, could Square eventually match -- or even surpass -- PayPal's valuation by 2025? Let's examine both fintech companies' growth trajectories and valuations to find out.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nWild ambitions vs. stable growth\nSquare and PayPal's core business models are similar. Both companies charge businesses flat fees, which vary by platform and transaction type, to process payments. Both companies offer small business loans. Square's Cash App and PayPal's Venmo both enable consumers to make peer-to-peer payments, and both companies provide branded debit cards that are linked to users' online accounts.\nBut Square has been willing to take bolder risks than PayPal over the past few years. It expanded its services ecosystem with online payroll management services and analytics tools, and recently launched a full suite of online banking services. Square also added Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) purchases to its Cash App in 2018, added free stock trades to the app to challenge Robinhood in 2019, and plans to add Credit Karma's tax filing services to its ecosystem in the near future.\nPayPal only started offering cryptocurrency trades last October, and it doesn't have any near-term plans to launch stock trading tools or dedicated tax filing services, or expand into a full-blown online bank like Square. Simply put, Square seems to have wilder and grander ambitions than PayPal.\nWhich company is growing faster?\nBetween 2015 and 2020, Square grew its annual revenue at a CAGR of 49.6%. Excluding its massive gain in Bitcoin revenue last year, it would still have grown its revenue at a CAGR of 31.2% over the past five years. PayPal's annual revenue grew at a CAGR of 18.5% between 2015 and 2020. Let's take a look at Wall Street's expectations for both companies over the next two years.\n\n\n\n\nCompany\nEstimated Sales Growth (FY 2021)\nEstimated Sales Growth(FY 2022)\n\n\nSquare\n110.6%\n14.1%\n\n\nPayPal\n20.6%\n21.5%\n\n\n\nSource: Yahoo Finance, July 22.\nAnalysts expect Square's Bitcoin revenue to continue rising this year before cooling off next year. They also expect its growth in transaction-based and seller service revenue, which slowed down during the pandemic, to recover as more businesses reopen. The Cash App, which grew its monthly active users 50% to 36 million in 2020, should also keep expanding as Square adds new services.\nCathie Wood's ARK Invest expects Square's transaction-based and seller service revenues to grow at a CAGR of 19% through 2025. It also expects the Cash App's MAUs to more than double to 75 million, for Square to monetize roughly 40% of those users, and for its average revenue per Cash App user to grow from $25 in 2019 to $260 in 2025 -- which would represent a whopping CAGR of 49%.\nPayPal's growth should remain more predictable, since it doesn't generate significant revenue from cryptocurrencies yet. Instead, it will mainly rely on its growth in active accounts, which rose 21% year-over-year to 392 million last quarter, to generate stable revenue from its processing fees.\nPayPal expects to nearly double its active accounts to 750 million and more than double its annual revenue to over $50 billion by 2025. It also plans to grow its earnings at a CAGR of 22% from 2020 to 2025. It believes the rising acceptance of QR codes and NFC payments, the expansion of its financial services, and higher engagement rates for its apps will all drive that long-term growth.\nWill Square be worth more than PayPal by 2025?\nIn a best-case scenario, ARK Invest believes Square's stock could hit $500 per share by 2025 if it hits its growth targets. But unlike PayPal, Square hasn't provided any concrete targets of its own yet.\nIf Square hits $500 and its valuations hold steady, it could be worth just over $200 billion by 2025. Meanwhile, if PayPal achieves its goals of more than doubling its annual revenue and growing its EPS at a CAGR of 22% through 2025, its stock could easily double and boost its market cap to $700 billion.\nTherefore, it's doubtful that Square -- which already trades at higher valuations than PayPal -- will be the more valuable company by 2025. But that doesn't mean PayPal is necessarily a better growth stock than Square. I personally own Square instead of PayPal, because I admire its ambitious and forward-thinking strategies. Both stocks are still great long-term investments on the booming fintech market, so investors shouldn't fret too much over which company has the higher market cap.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174787327,"gmtCreate":1627140336769,"gmtModify":1633767685156,"author":{"id":"3581738832645942","authorId":"3581738832645942","authorIdStr":"3581738832645942","name":"虎视Tan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8937bd48ee9805c92670bd1c3dd8e06","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581738832645942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"💪🏾","listText":"💪🏾","text":"💪🏾","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174787327","repostId":"1181195967","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":19,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174784615,"gmtCreate":1627140238237,"gmtModify":1633767685868,"author":{"id":"3581738832645942","authorId":"3581738832645942","authorIdStr":"3581738832645942","name":"虎视Tan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8937bd48ee9805c92670bd1c3dd8e06","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581738832645942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"💪🏾","listText":"💪🏾","text":"💪🏾","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174784615","repostId":"1181195967","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174788449,"gmtCreate":1627139722281,"gmtModify":1633767688672,"author":{"id":"3581738832645942","authorId":"3581738832645942","authorIdStr":"3581738832645942","name":"虎视Tan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8937bd48ee9805c92670bd1c3dd8e06","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581738832645942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"NIO follow Tesla’s footsteps, I follow NIO [Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"NIO follow Tesla’s footsteps, I follow NIO [Happy]&nbsp;","text":"NIO follow Tesla’s footsteps, I follow NIO [Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174788449","repostId":"1112927800","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112927800","pubTimestamp":1627089375,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112927800?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>\n <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>\n <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p>\n<p><b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p>\n<p>Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p>\n<p><b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p>\n<p>The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p>\n<p><b>Business Model</b></p>\n<p>Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p>\n<p>Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p>\n<p><b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p>\n<p>The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p>\n<p>Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p>\n<p>The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p>\n<p>Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p>\n<p><b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p>\n<p>The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p>\n<p>When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p>\n<p>It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p>\n<p><b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p>\n<p>When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p>\n<p>One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-24 09:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":57,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":174788449,"gmtCreate":1627139722281,"gmtModify":1633767688672,"author":{"id":"3581738832645942","authorId":"3581738832645942","authorIdStr":"3581738832645942","name":"虎视Tan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8937bd48ee9805c92670bd1c3dd8e06","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581738832645942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"NIO follow Tesla’s footsteps, I follow NIO [Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"NIO follow Tesla’s footsteps, I follow NIO [Happy]&nbsp;","text":"NIO follow Tesla’s footsteps, I follow NIO [Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174788449","repostId":"1112927800","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112927800","pubTimestamp":1627089375,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112927800?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>\n <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>\n <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p>\n<p><b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p>\n<p>Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p>\n<p><b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p>\n<p>The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p>\n<p><b>Business Model</b></p>\n<p>Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p>\n<p>Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p>\n<p><b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p>\n<p>The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p>\n<p>Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p>\n<p>The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p>\n<p>Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p>\n<p><b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p>\n<p>The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p>\n<p>When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p>\n<p>It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p>\n<p><b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p>\n<p>When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p>\n<p>One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-24 09:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":57,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":820268102,"gmtCreate":1633396076431,"gmtModify":1633396085000,"author":{"id":"3581738832645942","authorId":"3581738832645942","authorIdStr":"3581738832645942","name":"虎视Tan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8937bd48ee9805c92670bd1c3dd8e06","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581738832645942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820268102","repostId":"1190774495","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":177225138,"gmtCreate":1627226499324,"gmtModify":1633767042855,"author":{"id":"3581738832645942","authorId":"3581738832645942","authorIdStr":"3581738832645942","name":"虎视Tan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8937bd48ee9805c92670bd1c3dd8e06","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581738832645942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Accumulate more","listText":"Accumulate more","text":"Accumulate more","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177225138","repostId":"2153878189","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":95,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177665661,"gmtCreate":1627212133153,"gmtModify":1633767136821,"author":{"id":"3581738832645942","authorId":"3581738832645942","authorIdStr":"3581738832645942","name":"虎视Tan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8937bd48ee9805c92670bd1c3dd8e06","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581738832645942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Game over?","listText":"Game over?","text":"Game over?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177665661","repostId":"1107345366","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107345366","pubTimestamp":1627176839,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107345366?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 09:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop: The Game Is Far From Over","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107345366","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce pla","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>GameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce player.</li>\n <li>We think the company may possibly be at an inflection point, if the management team is able to successfully execute its new e-commerce pivot.</li>\n <li>In addition, we exhort the bears to pay special attention to the Reddit community, given its growing user base and influence in their investors' decision-making process.</li>\n <li>While we don't have a position in GameStop, we don't think the game is over for the company.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>The speculation fervor behind GameStop’s (GME) meteoric rise to the stratospheric levels of $480 per share last seen in Jan has subsided significantly, as the stock last traded at the $178 price level, a 63% decline from the ATH reached during the January mania.</p>\n<p>While we agree to a large extent with the Street’s valuation opinion, that this stock seems to be significantly overvalued (The Street’s mean target price is $37.5), we would also like to highlight that we don’t think we presently have a valuation model that can comprehensively incorporate the underlying factors driving the company’s stock price, and therefore would not boldly proclaim to investors who have an interest in meme stocks, to stay away from GME.</p>\n<p>We thinkeMarketerdelineated in this recent piece in June, what factors they thought could have driven the underlying demand behind meme stocks in Reddit forums like GME:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Punishing short sellers. Clover Health (CLOV) short-sellers, who believed the stock was overvalued, were down $438 million in mark-to-market losses. GameStop short sellers lost over $5 billion.Perplexing the markets “for the memes”—i.e., it’s just funny. Reddit posts on r/WallStreetBets highlight how members make seemingly irrational investment decisions for the joy of duping financial institutions.Pump and dump. The artificially inflated share prices can maximize profit for the lucky few who invest early.\n</blockquote>\n<p>We think investors who have been schooled in fundamental analysis would never be able to develop models that could fully factor in the above, as these investors think the long term value of stocks are driven by the long term strength and the competitive moat of their underlying businesses, but not with the \"ludicrous\" methods adopted by the Redditors in the way they analyze stocks.</p>\n<p>In this article, we dive deeper to look at the key fundamental drivers underpinning GME's business, and how we think the Reddit community's participation and influence in meme stocks like GME would continue to disrupt the valuation outlook for the company moving forward.</p>\n<p>What Has Changed for GameStop since the January Mania?</p>\n<p>GME recently appointed2 key veteranexecutives from Amazon (AMZN): Matt Furlong and Mike Recupero as its CEO and CFO, respectively, as part of Chairman Ryan Cohen's strategic revamp of GME's business model to pivot towards becoming a major \"e-commerce powerhouse.\"</p>\n<p>While the guidance from the new management may have been sparse so far, the team has certainly gotten down to work quickly, to put in place the necessary building blocks to gradually move GME into a major e-commerce player, as they have started to expand itsfulfillment centers, with two new recent facilities in Reno, Nevada and York, Pennsylvania, that have given the company a total capacity of more than 1.2M square feet.</p>\n<p>Ryan Cohen has also made it clear that the company wouldn't be specifying intricate details on its overhaul plans to its competitors, but instead appealing to investors to judge the team on their actions, as he emphasized:</p>\n<blockquote>\n You won’t find ustalking a big game, making a bunch of lofty promises or telegraphing our strategy to the competition...We have a lot of work in front of us. Moving forward, we want you to judge GameStop based on our actions -- not our words.\n</blockquote>\n<p>However, the Street was hardly convinced with Ryan Cohen or the company’s strategy, asWedbush Securitiesarticulated recently: “I think it got away from him. I think his ego’s gotten in the way and now he's going to prove [to] everybody [that he] knows what he's doing. If there [was] a strategy, it's shocking that he hasn't told us. We were supposed to hear about this five months ago. What is such a secret?”</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/213a840d218039b67bebc984532ecf5f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Quarterly revenues. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46f7322b39c6468f6929c1fd414921b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LTM revenue. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>We could observe that the company seems to have been able to arrest the declining trend in its revenue in Q4'21 and Q1'22 (GME defines its FY differently from its CY), which took place well before the new management was in place. The company's Q4'21 revenue of $2.12B was its strong quarter over the last 3 years, while Q1'22's revenue grew 25% YoY. Therefore, when we plotted it over an LTM basis, we think that there's hope over the horizon, that perhaps the new management team may have an encouraging start, in the company's quest to become an important e-commerce competitor. We think investors should continue monitoring this space closely, especially on the build-up of the company's fulfillment centers, which is highly integral towards its e-commerce ambitions.</p>\n<p>LTM EBIT margins trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</p>\n<p>While the company's EBIT margin trend has certainly been of major concern, we think this is an area certainly worth watching, as yet again we observed an improvement in the LTM trend, as the company posted an LTM EBIT margin of -3.5% in Q1'22, as compared to its LTM EBIT margin of -4.9% in Q4'21. While we don't think the company is out of the woods yet, but we think the company may have stopped the rot, at least for now.</p>\n<p>Debt to Equity Ratio. Source:Simply Wall St</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eaacbe2d43de887038c30e9ab4bcfa2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LTM Levered FCF margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>The company has also astutely capitalized on its share price to completetwo equity offeringsto buttress its balance sheet. As a result, the company's debt to equity ratio has improved significantly to 5.5%, with a debt balance of just $48.1M, while having a cash and ST investments balance of $694.7M (as of 1 May 21, before both equity offerings which raised a total of $1.677B, and before paring down of debt). In addition, the company has also never really been bleeding cash, as its levered FCF margins trend has always been relatively healthy while having also improved its LTM levered FCF margin at the recent quarter to 1.6%.</p>\n<p>Therefore, we think GME looks well-positioned to take advantage of its strategic overhaul towards its new e-commerce pivot if the management can successfully execute moving forward. While we are not too sure at this point on the roadmap ahead for GME, the Reddit community seems to be ready to continue supporting this company, as we shall go into detail how the Reddit community would continue to be a highly important force to be reckoned with, in their quest to bolster the stock price of the company, such that even Ryan Cohen made it a point to pay a special tribute to the Reddit community:</p>\n<blockquote>\n We’re fortunateto have such a special group of investors holding the company’s shares, you guys inspire us to think bigger, fight harder and work longer each day.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>The Reddit Community Grew by 25.9% in 2020</b></p>\n<p>US social network user growth, by platform 2020 &amp; 2021. Source:eMarketer</p>\n<p>Investors should be able to observe that Reddit posted highly remarkable growth in 2020, as users on its platform grew by 25.9% YoY, andeMarketeralso expects the Reddit community to grow by 14.4% in 2021, to reach 43.3M users. We think the increasing popularity towards the adoption of Reddit would continue to sustain investors' interest in meme stocks like GME, moving forward.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f886ecf993efe35532771c132d94a6a\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Population distribution in the US in 2019, by generation. Data source: US Census Bureau</span></p>\n<p>We believe that Reddit has certainly benefited from the secular drivers underpinning digitization, which has also led to significant growth and popularity in trading platforms like Robinhood (HOOD), where theaverage agein 2020 is 31 years old. This puts the average age of Robinhood users right within the age group of the Millennials, who were born between 1981 and 1996 (25 to 40 years old), and accounted for 21.97% of the US population, based on the 2019 census.</p>\n<p>Importantly, we could also observe that Millennial investors are interested in stocks that are not the “safe and steady” stocks that a typical investor is expected to hold if I could put it that way. We don’t think valuations form the most important considerations to these investors as we could observe from the above.</p>\n<p>According to a report byApex Clearing, Tesla (TSLA) formed the largest holdings of their Millennials portfolio in Q1’21, with a 28.3% share, a stock that we think investors would not typically say it’s cheap. While AAPL was the second-largest holding with a 14.5% share, GME also rounded up the top 4 with a 5.2% share, lending support to our opinion that Millennial investors’ motivations are driven by factors beyond just fundamentals and valuations.</p>\n<p>Among the holdings in the Millennials portfolio, we could observe many other examples that corroborate these investors' interests in premium stocks, like Nvidia (NVDA), another meme stock like AMC Entertainment (AMC), Churchill Capital Corp (CCIV), its third-largest holding; Nio (NIO), Palantir (PLTR), and even Square (SQ), stocks we think investors would not typically ascribe as value stocks.</p>\n<p>Therefore, we think the general investor community needs to understand that there’s a huge and growing base of investors whose understanding and expectations of fundamentals and valuations are certainly quite different from what our typical valuation models could account for.</p>\n<p>We think the market is definitely bigger and much more complex than what we know, and it’s just not possible to use the same fundamental analysis and valuation methods to value meme stocks like GME and say that they are way overvalued, a process that we honestly think is quite meaningless in the world of meme stocks investment.</p>\n<p><b>Analyzing the Reddit Opinion</b></p>\n<p>Individual investors’ opinion on Reddit after GameStop short squeeze in the US, UK, and Canada as of Feb 21, by age. Data source:Brunswick</p>\n<p>According to a survey by Brunswick, we could observe the importance of the Reddit forums as an investment tool for investors, especially among the younger investors within the age group of 18-29 years old. About 14% of all investors “trust Reddit as a media alternative,” and the share even shot up to 31% among the younger investors. In addition, a good proportion (25%) of the younger investors also took part in the GME opportunities, while 20% of them think that the GME events “represent a fundamental shift of power in the market.” While these opinions may belong within the minority of investors, we think the proportion of investors is certainly large enough to raise the eyebrows of the general investment community, and therefore we think the power of the Reddit forums is certainly a force to be reckoned with moving ahead.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa3108c1a56bc4c6221a4d8297e018d3\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Share of institutional investors using Reddit to investigate an issue in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e72f250f4fe70ca9af575b6828bace0d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Average trust score assigned by institutional investors to Reddit in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick</span></p>\n<p>We could observe Reddit’s increasing influence even among institutional investors, as 27% of them used Reddit to “investigate an issue”, which increased discernibly from the previous years, even though their trust in the platform dropped markedly from an average score of 3.5 in 2019 to 2.0 in 2021. We think this shows that institutional investors consider Reddit’s increasing influence in the general investment community’s decision-making process, but they don’t trust those things going on in those forums as meaningful enough for their \"well-developed\" processes, as compared to individual investors shown earlier.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a87f8665c27d127566189bd21a035158\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Institutional investors' attitude towards members of the Reddit wallstreetbets community. Data source: Brunswick</span></p>\n<p>While 48% of institutional investors think that the Redditors “might have a short term influence, but they won’t be able to sustain it,” 27% developed some curiosity regarding Reddit influence among the investors’ community, and 13% of them developed some form of respect for the way the Redditors were able to amass an army to outgun some of Wall Street’s brightest minds. We were therefore not surprised to find that 20% of these institutional investors were frustrated with what they considered as “market manipulation” by the Redditors.</p>\n<p><b>Looking Ahead</b></p>\n<p>Ownership breakdown. Source:Simply Wall St</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1dd4930d00083121d28ea6d57285bc5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Institutional ownership changes. Source:Marketbeat</span></p>\n<p>Moving forward, we think meme stocks like GME would continue to feature prominently within the Reddit forums and remain one of their “flagship” stocks in their fight against the Street. Retail investors now hold the largest share of ownership of GME stock, accounting for 45.1% of total ownership. Interestingly, there’s still a sizable proportion (36.4%) of institutional investors that remain vested in GME, which includes GME’s largest shareholder: Blackrock, which owns 12.36% of GME stock. While GME witnessed a significant outflow of $1.93B of institutional capital in Q2’21, the stock price remained well above the closing price of $17.25, on the first trading day of 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a708e62291662e5d4e2bce79492dc93a\" tg-width=\"1244\" tg-height=\"656\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Percentage of float shorted over time. Source:Marketbeat</span></p>\n<p>Importantly, the price continues to be sustained even though the short percentage of float has dropped significantly from 41.96% in Jan, to “just” 14.18% at the end of June, its lowest recorded two-week period in 2021.</p>\n<p>Other than the 45.1% of retail investors who are vested in GME, the stock is also supported by Ryan Cohen’s 12.13% share, which makes him the second-largest shareholder of GME stock, behind Blackrock, even though the purchase price for his last batch of 1.274M shares in Dec 20 is about $14.24, which certainly gives him a huge margin of safety if we consider GME’s last closing price of $178.85.</p>\n<p><b>Price Action and Trend Analysis</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe5e54ac5cfe6504ec07c334a8c52668\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"786\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p>\n<p>Ever since the mania we witnessed at the start of the year, GME has settled down and seems to have developed an uptrend bias, with a support level that has attracted strong buying interest between the $130 and $160 price level previously. It is a level that we expect the buyers to continue defending strongly, based on our price action analysis. For investors who are keen to take a position in GME, we think they may consider an entry within that buy range that we highlighted.</p>\n<p>While we are convinced that the volatility in GameStop’s price is likely to continue moving ahead, we think the stock has incredibly found huge buying interest among the retail community that has shaken the foundations of the institutional investors, asStenham Asset Managementarticulated:</p>\n<blockquote>\n \"In the current environment, you are being negligent if you don’t measure and manage your exposure on the short side to both crowding and retail interest,\" and we think one of the multibillion-dollar US hedge fund also succinctly summed up the rising influence of the Reddit community: “[We] are absolutely looking at forums such as WSB, we are monitoring that extremely closely.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>In GameStop, we think the game is certainly far from being over.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop: The Game Is Far From Over\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-25 09:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441170-gamestop-the-game-is-far-from-over><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nGameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce player.\nWe think the company may possibly be at an inflection point, if the management team is able to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441170-gamestop-the-game-is-far-from-over\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441170-gamestop-the-game-is-far-from-over","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107345366","content_text":"Summary\n\nGameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce player.\nWe think the company may possibly be at an inflection point, if the management team is able to successfully execute its new e-commerce pivot.\nIn addition, we exhort the bears to pay special attention to the Reddit community, given its growing user base and influence in their investors' decision-making process.\nWhile we don't have a position in GameStop, we don't think the game is over for the company.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nThe speculation fervor behind GameStop’s (GME) meteoric rise to the stratospheric levels of $480 per share last seen in Jan has subsided significantly, as the stock last traded at the $178 price level, a 63% decline from the ATH reached during the January mania.\nWhile we agree to a large extent with the Street’s valuation opinion, that this stock seems to be significantly overvalued (The Street’s mean target price is $37.5), we would also like to highlight that we don’t think we presently have a valuation model that can comprehensively incorporate the underlying factors driving the company’s stock price, and therefore would not boldly proclaim to investors who have an interest in meme stocks, to stay away from GME.\nWe thinkeMarketerdelineated in this recent piece in June, what factors they thought could have driven the underlying demand behind meme stocks in Reddit forums like GME:\n\n Punishing short sellers. Clover Health (CLOV) short-sellers, who believed the stock was overvalued, were down $438 million in mark-to-market losses. GameStop short sellers lost over $5 billion.Perplexing the markets “for the memes”—i.e., it’s just funny. Reddit posts on r/WallStreetBets highlight how members make seemingly irrational investment decisions for the joy of duping financial institutions.Pump and dump. The artificially inflated share prices can maximize profit for the lucky few who invest early.\n\nWe think investors who have been schooled in fundamental analysis would never be able to develop models that could fully factor in the above, as these investors think the long term value of stocks are driven by the long term strength and the competitive moat of their underlying businesses, but not with the \"ludicrous\" methods adopted by the Redditors in the way they analyze stocks.\nIn this article, we dive deeper to look at the key fundamental drivers underpinning GME's business, and how we think the Reddit community's participation and influence in meme stocks like GME would continue to disrupt the valuation outlook for the company moving forward.\nWhat Has Changed for GameStop since the January Mania?\nGME recently appointed2 key veteranexecutives from Amazon (AMZN): Matt Furlong and Mike Recupero as its CEO and CFO, respectively, as part of Chairman Ryan Cohen's strategic revamp of GME's business model to pivot towards becoming a major \"e-commerce powerhouse.\"\nWhile the guidance from the new management may have been sparse so far, the team has certainly gotten down to work quickly, to put in place the necessary building blocks to gradually move GME into a major e-commerce player, as they have started to expand itsfulfillment centers, with two new recent facilities in Reno, Nevada and York, Pennsylvania, that have given the company a total capacity of more than 1.2M square feet.\nRyan Cohen has also made it clear that the company wouldn't be specifying intricate details on its overhaul plans to its competitors, but instead appealing to investors to judge the team on their actions, as he emphasized:\n\n You won’t find ustalking a big game, making a bunch of lofty promises or telegraphing our strategy to the competition...We have a lot of work in front of us. Moving forward, we want you to judge GameStop based on our actions -- not our words.\n\nHowever, the Street was hardly convinced with Ryan Cohen or the company’s strategy, asWedbush Securitiesarticulated recently: “I think it got away from him. I think his ego’s gotten in the way and now he's going to prove [to] everybody [that he] knows what he's doing. If there [was] a strategy, it's shocking that he hasn't told us. We were supposed to hear about this five months ago. What is such a secret?”\nQuarterly revenues. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nLTM revenue. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe that the company seems to have been able to arrest the declining trend in its revenue in Q4'21 and Q1'22 (GME defines its FY differently from its CY), which took place well before the new management was in place. The company's Q4'21 revenue of $2.12B was its strong quarter over the last 3 years, while Q1'22's revenue grew 25% YoY. Therefore, when we plotted it over an LTM basis, we think that there's hope over the horizon, that perhaps the new management team may have an encouraging start, in the company's quest to become an important e-commerce competitor. We think investors should continue monitoring this space closely, especially on the build-up of the company's fulfillment centers, which is highly integral towards its e-commerce ambitions.\nLTM EBIT margins trend. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhile the company's EBIT margin trend has certainly been of major concern, we think this is an area certainly worth watching, as yet again we observed an improvement in the LTM trend, as the company posted an LTM EBIT margin of -3.5% in Q1'22, as compared to its LTM EBIT margin of -4.9% in Q4'21. While we don't think the company is out of the woods yet, but we think the company may have stopped the rot, at least for now.\nDebt to Equity Ratio. Source:Simply Wall St\nLTM Levered FCF margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nThe company has also astutely capitalized on its share price to completetwo equity offeringsto buttress its balance sheet. As a result, the company's debt to equity ratio has improved significantly to 5.5%, with a debt balance of just $48.1M, while having a cash and ST investments balance of $694.7M (as of 1 May 21, before both equity offerings which raised a total of $1.677B, and before paring down of debt). In addition, the company has also never really been bleeding cash, as its levered FCF margins trend has always been relatively healthy while having also improved its LTM levered FCF margin at the recent quarter to 1.6%.\nTherefore, we think GME looks well-positioned to take advantage of its strategic overhaul towards its new e-commerce pivot if the management can successfully execute moving forward. While we are not too sure at this point on the roadmap ahead for GME, the Reddit community seems to be ready to continue supporting this company, as we shall go into detail how the Reddit community would continue to be a highly important force to be reckoned with, in their quest to bolster the stock price of the company, such that even Ryan Cohen made it a point to pay a special tribute to the Reddit community:\n\n We’re fortunateto have such a special group of investors holding the company’s shares, you guys inspire us to think bigger, fight harder and work longer each day.\n\nThe Reddit Community Grew by 25.9% in 2020\nUS social network user growth, by platform 2020 & 2021. Source:eMarketer\nInvestors should be able to observe that Reddit posted highly remarkable growth in 2020, as users on its platform grew by 25.9% YoY, andeMarketeralso expects the Reddit community to grow by 14.4% in 2021, to reach 43.3M users. We think the increasing popularity towards the adoption of Reddit would continue to sustain investors' interest in meme stocks like GME, moving forward.\nPopulation distribution in the US in 2019, by generation. Data source: US Census Bureau\nWe believe that Reddit has certainly benefited from the secular drivers underpinning digitization, which has also led to significant growth and popularity in trading platforms like Robinhood (HOOD), where theaverage agein 2020 is 31 years old. This puts the average age of Robinhood users right within the age group of the Millennials, who were born between 1981 and 1996 (25 to 40 years old), and accounted for 21.97% of the US population, based on the 2019 census.\nImportantly, we could also observe that Millennial investors are interested in stocks that are not the “safe and steady” stocks that a typical investor is expected to hold if I could put it that way. We don’t think valuations form the most important considerations to these investors as we could observe from the above.\nAccording to a report byApex Clearing, Tesla (TSLA) formed the largest holdings of their Millennials portfolio in Q1’21, with a 28.3% share, a stock that we think investors would not typically say it’s cheap. While AAPL was the second-largest holding with a 14.5% share, GME also rounded up the top 4 with a 5.2% share, lending support to our opinion that Millennial investors’ motivations are driven by factors beyond just fundamentals and valuations.\nAmong the holdings in the Millennials portfolio, we could observe many other examples that corroborate these investors' interests in premium stocks, like Nvidia (NVDA), another meme stock like AMC Entertainment (AMC), Churchill Capital Corp (CCIV), its third-largest holding; Nio (NIO), Palantir (PLTR), and even Square (SQ), stocks we think investors would not typically ascribe as value stocks.\nTherefore, we think the general investor community needs to understand that there’s a huge and growing base of investors whose understanding and expectations of fundamentals and valuations are certainly quite different from what our typical valuation models could account for.\nWe think the market is definitely bigger and much more complex than what we know, and it’s just not possible to use the same fundamental analysis and valuation methods to value meme stocks like GME and say that they are way overvalued, a process that we honestly think is quite meaningless in the world of meme stocks investment.\nAnalyzing the Reddit Opinion\nIndividual investors’ opinion on Reddit after GameStop short squeeze in the US, UK, and Canada as of Feb 21, by age. Data source:Brunswick\nAccording to a survey by Brunswick, we could observe the importance of the Reddit forums as an investment tool for investors, especially among the younger investors within the age group of 18-29 years old. About 14% of all investors “trust Reddit as a media alternative,” and the share even shot up to 31% among the younger investors. In addition, a good proportion (25%) of the younger investors also took part in the GME opportunities, while 20% of them think that the GME events “represent a fundamental shift of power in the market.” While these opinions may belong within the minority of investors, we think the proportion of investors is certainly large enough to raise the eyebrows of the general investment community, and therefore we think the power of the Reddit forums is certainly a force to be reckoned with moving ahead.\nShare of institutional investors using Reddit to investigate an issue in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick\nAverage trust score assigned by institutional investors to Reddit in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick\nWe could observe Reddit’s increasing influence even among institutional investors, as 27% of them used Reddit to “investigate an issue”, which increased discernibly from the previous years, even though their trust in the platform dropped markedly from an average score of 3.5 in 2019 to 2.0 in 2021. We think this shows that institutional investors consider Reddit’s increasing influence in the general investment community’s decision-making process, but they don’t trust those things going on in those forums as meaningful enough for their \"well-developed\" processes, as compared to individual investors shown earlier.\nInstitutional investors' attitude towards members of the Reddit wallstreetbets community. Data source: Brunswick\nWhile 48% of institutional investors think that the Redditors “might have a short term influence, but they won’t be able to sustain it,” 27% developed some curiosity regarding Reddit influence among the investors’ community, and 13% of them developed some form of respect for the way the Redditors were able to amass an army to outgun some of Wall Street’s brightest minds. We were therefore not surprised to find that 20% of these institutional investors were frustrated with what they considered as “market manipulation” by the Redditors.\nLooking Ahead\nOwnership breakdown. Source:Simply Wall St\nInstitutional ownership changes. Source:Marketbeat\nMoving forward, we think meme stocks like GME would continue to feature prominently within the Reddit forums and remain one of their “flagship” stocks in their fight against the Street. Retail investors now hold the largest share of ownership of GME stock, accounting for 45.1% of total ownership. Interestingly, there’s still a sizable proportion (36.4%) of institutional investors that remain vested in GME, which includes GME’s largest shareholder: Blackrock, which owns 12.36% of GME stock. While GME witnessed a significant outflow of $1.93B of institutional capital in Q2’21, the stock price remained well above the closing price of $17.25, on the first trading day of 2021.\nPercentage of float shorted over time. Source:Marketbeat\nImportantly, the price continues to be sustained even though the short percentage of float has dropped significantly from 41.96% in Jan, to “just” 14.18% at the end of June, its lowest recorded two-week period in 2021.\nOther than the 45.1% of retail investors who are vested in GME, the stock is also supported by Ryan Cohen’s 12.13% share, which makes him the second-largest shareholder of GME stock, behind Blackrock, even though the purchase price for his last batch of 1.274M shares in Dec 20 is about $14.24, which certainly gives him a huge margin of safety if we consider GME’s last closing price of $178.85.\nPrice Action and Trend Analysis\nSource: TradingView\nEver since the mania we witnessed at the start of the year, GME has settled down and seems to have developed an uptrend bias, with a support level that has attracted strong buying interest between the $130 and $160 price level previously. It is a level that we expect the buyers to continue defending strongly, based on our price action analysis. For investors who are keen to take a position in GME, we think they may consider an entry within that buy range that we highlighted.\nWhile we are convinced that the volatility in GameStop’s price is likely to continue moving ahead, we think the stock has incredibly found huge buying interest among the retail community that has shaken the foundations of the institutional investors, asStenham Asset Managementarticulated:\n\n \"In the current environment, you are being negligent if you don’t measure and manage your exposure on the short side to both crowding and retail interest,\" and we think one of the multibillion-dollar US hedge fund also succinctly summed up the rising influence of the Reddit community: “[We] are absolutely looking at forums such as WSB, we are monitoring that extremely closely.”\n\nIn GameStop, we think the game is certainly far from being over.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174784615,"gmtCreate":1627140238237,"gmtModify":1633767685868,"author":{"id":"3581738832645942","authorId":"3581738832645942","authorIdStr":"3581738832645942","name":"虎视Tan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8937bd48ee9805c92670bd1c3dd8e06","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581738832645942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"💪🏾","listText":"💪🏾","text":"💪🏾","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174784615","repostId":"1181195967","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880666140,"gmtCreate":1631056074180,"gmtModify":1632885001457,"author":{"id":"3581738832645942","authorId":"3581738832645942","authorIdStr":"3581738832645942","name":"虎视Tan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8937bd48ee9805c92670bd1c3dd8e06","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581738832645942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Overvalued","listText":"Overvalued","text":"Overvalued","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880666140","repostId":"1139582863","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139582863","pubTimestamp":1631026413,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139582863?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 22:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell? Wait For The Dip First To Buy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139582863","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is facing potential headwinds regarding its App Store take rate, but investors should","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple is facing potential headwinds regarding its App Store take rate, but investors should be reminded that such issues are nothing new for the company.</li>\n <li>Even though iPhone is still the key revenue and profit driver, investors should watch its fast-growing services segment closely.</li>\n <li>Nevertheless, Apple needs to demonstrate that it can grow its services segment quickly moving forward to justify its premium valuation.</li>\n <li>Given its valuation right now, it's hard for us to justify a Buy rating, but we don't encourage readers to bet against the company as well.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)recently celebrated CEO Tim Cook's tenth year in charge since its visionary founder, the late Steve Jobs, stepped down in Aug 2011. Under Tim Cook's stewardship, the iPhone continues to be a key revenue driver since reinventing the smartphone landscape 15 years ago and helped AAPL reached the pinnacle as the world's most valuable company.</p>\n<p>While the media focused their attention on the regulatory concerns regarding its 30% take rate from its App Store, AAPL's investors have largely brushed it aside as they turned their eye to the impending iPhone 13 launch knowing that having to contend with regulators is nothing new, and is largely expected, as they are smart enough to focus on the forest and not the trees.</p>\n<p>In this article, we help our readers to focus on the big picture of Apple's burgeoning services segment, which we think investors don't give enough credit to CEO Tim Cook for, even as the company navigates high expectations with its iPhone 13 sales, 5G ramp and an expected slowdown in revenue and profit growth moving forward.</p>\n<p>We will also present our valuation argument for Apple Inc., from the EBIT and EBITDA perspective, as well as our analysis of AAPL stock's price action to help investors decide whether to add exposure to AAPL now.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Stock YTD Performance</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11254a709c567ca88d28b9b8487819e0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>FAANG YTD performance (as of 2 Sep 21).</i></p>\n<p>AAPL stock's YTD performance has underperformed Invesco QQQ ETF(NASDAQ:QQQ), together with Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)and Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX), as Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)easily outperformed the trio with their fast-growing, highly profitable, and dominant digital advertising duopoly (that we highlighted in a recent The Trade Desk(NASDAQ:TTD)article, appendedhere).</p>\n<p>Theglobal digital advertising marketis expected to continue its stellar expansion as the market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 14.3% from $378B in 2020 to $646B by 2024, while the global smartphone market (by shipment) is only expected to grow by 7.7% YoY in 2021 to 1.38B units, and YoY growth is expected to slow subsequently to 3.8% in 2022 and then to about 2% by 2025 according toIDC forecasts. Therefore we think that the 5G ramp will likely boost sales from Apple's 5G upgrade through 2022 before the going gets tougher moving forward. As a result, AAPL's share price may likely face growth headwinds due to the stock's current valuation, which we will discuss in the subsequent sections.</p>\n<p><b>iPhone is Important, But Apple's Services Segment is Growing Its Clout</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a51d89975f674cdcc4911ec4a9893\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Apple total revenue (by FY and LTM) and revenue forecast mean consensus. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63aa2ec0d4263a3b5ed73478f7241c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Apple revenue by product (By FY). Data source: Company filings</i></p>\n<p>While consistent, Apple's revenue growth from 2016 to 2020 was certainly not spectacular as it grew by a CAGR of just 6.22%, even though 2021 has been a remarkable year as its LTM revenue reached $347B. Readers should also be able to easily glean that the Street is also not optimistic that Apple would be able to continue its stellar 2021 performance moving forward as revenue is expected to increase from $366B in FY21 to $447B by FY25, which represents a CAGR of just about 5.1% over the next 4 years, that's even slower than its FY16 to the FY20 CAGR.</p>\n<p>An important point for investors to note is that iPhone's revenue actually fell in FY19 and FY20, and despite that, the company still managed to eke out an increase in revenue in FY20. Notably, Apple's services segment has been growing remarkably to support the company's revenue growth. Its revenue increased by a CAGR of 20.3% from FY18 to FY20. Its revenue also reached $50.2B based on its collective performance from Q1'21 to Q3'21.</p>\n<p>Therefore, while iPhone continues to be a vital segment for the company as it accounted for 54.2% of the first three quarters' revenue, astute investors have been keeping an eye on the company's fast-growing services segment, which they believe will be the key driver of growth for the company moving forward.</p>\n<p>In fact, we think Roku(NASDAQ:ROKU)might even have found Apple's margins with its hardware segments enviable, as investors in Roku know that the Connected TV (CTV) platform leader uses a low-margin hardware penetration gameplan to attract users onto its platform for the company to leverage their highly effective monetization strategies (we shared this in a recent Roku article, link to the article is appendedhere), that the company was willing to even go into negative margins in Q2 to absorb the costs pressure relating to the semiconductor supply chain issues.</p>\n<p>However, Apple operates with a much higher gross margin for its hardware segments, which has been close to 40% over time, which has not only helped to make a tidy profit off its hardware but has also given the company a huge installed base of Apple devices to monetize through its services segment.</p>\n<p>In our recent article on Digital Turbine(NASDAQ:APPS), we shared that iOS has a global market share of about 26.3%, against an estimated global installed base of 6.2B units in 2021 (link to the article is appendedhere). This means that Apple is expected to have a total iOS installed base of about 1.63B units by the end of this year that the company can leverage, and we think the potential is massive.</p>\n<p>According to Apple's filings, its services segment consists of sales \"from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare®, digital content, and other services. Services net sales also include amortization of the deferred value of Maps, Siri, and free iCloud storage and Apple TV+SM services, which are bundled in the sales price of certain products.\"</p>\n<p>Therefore, it's a segment with huge potential. Currently, the most important sub-segment within services is none other than its lucrative Apps store. Even more amazing is that despite iOS having only a 26% share of the global installed base, Apps store revenue has consistently outperformed Google Play revenue. The same trend is expected to continue as iOS consumers were expected to spend $41.5B in H1'21 compared to $23.4B for Google Play consumers from an earlierstudy in Juneby Sensor Tower. Using a 30% take rate as a basis, the Apps Store was expected to generate about $12.45B in commissions, accounting for 38.1% of H1'21 services revenue of $32.7B. Importantly, this is also a highly profitable segment, ascourt documentson Alphabet showed that its Play store posted an operating margin of 62.5% in 2019 (Google doesn't break out its Play store margins).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74e1421d1674431ff9e387d6ec8d4f62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>App Store profitability estimates analysis. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ, various company filings, Reuters, Alphabet</i></p>\n<p>If we consider Apple's overall LTM operating margin of 28.8%, then we are pretty sure App's store margins are a big deal, even though based on its annual run rate of $25B, it is only expected to account for just 6.8% of FY21 consensus revenue estimates. However, if we look at Apple Inc.'s FY21 EBIT estimates of $108.7B (estimated EBIT margin of 29.7%), the App Store is expected to account for 14.4% of Apple's total EBIT estimates for FY21. It's unequivocally a crucial revenue and profit driver for Apple to protect and sustain, especially since the App Store revenue grew 22.1% YoY in H1'21. Moreover, with Apple's iPhone sales doing extremely well in FY21 so far (iPhone's revenue for Q1-Q3 has already exceeded FY19 and FY20 total iPhone revenue), we think the momentum for App Store is only just getting started.</p>\n<p><b>The App Store is a Key Beneficiary of Mobile Gaming</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f974b56f9fab5f9d406a8a2053249aa6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Mobile gaming content market worldwide. Data source: Capcom; International Development Group</i></p>\n<p>Mobile gaming is expected to grow consistently over the next few years, from $121.1B in 2020 to $169.7B by 2025, representing a CAGR of about 7%. We highlighted in our recent articles on Roblox(NYSE:RBLX)and Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)how mobile gaming's secular growth is not just a COVID-19 phenomenon (link to the articles are appendedhereandhere).</p>\n<p>Therefore, it's clear that the App Store is a key beneficiary of mobile gaming's secular growth, and we can definitely observe in its H1'21 performance as in-game spending increased by 13.5% YoY from $22.9B in H1'20 to $26B in H1'21, which also represented 62.7% of App Store's H1'21 revenue.</p>\n<p>Therefore, we are not surprised that the recent furor over Apple's take rate from the App Store has caused lots of confusion and chatter about whether it will lead to the dismantling of Apple's closely-guarded, highly lucrative revenue stream.</p>\n<p>We think Apple has certainly recognized the need to placate regulators about its supposed \"monopolistic\" behavior by allowing theso-called reader appsto be exempted from its commissions. Still, it is important to note that this does not affect gaming apps and in-app purchases, thus allowing Apple to continue relying on their most lucrative gaming apps to drive revenue growth.</p>\n<p>Despite that, therecent billby the South Korean parliament to disallow app store operators from charging commissions on in-app purchases should be carefully watched, as this may have ramifications around the world if regulators were to follow the signal from South Korea. Nevertheless, we will like to remind our readers not to overreact to such developments but to keep calm and observe. Apple didn't get to become the world's most valuable company without overcoming its fair share of regulatory issues, and we should certainly expect the management to show similar resilience and fortitude as they had in the past.</p>\n<p><b>Advertising is the Trump Card</b></p>\n<p>We highlighted previously in our recent article on Amazon where we discussed why advertising is the most underrated segment for the e-commerce behemoth, as it's the company's fastest-growing segment (link to the article is appendedhere).</p>\n<p>We think likewise for Apple; we encourage investors never to underestimate Apple's ability to monetize its users. We have seen earlier how, despite iOS having just 26% of the global installed base, the App Store revenue easily outsized Google Play's revenue in H1'21. With a global installed base that's 1.6B and growing, there are many monetization opportunities that Apple can certainly leverage.</p>\n<p>For example, in our Digital Turbine articles (the most recent one ishere), we showed how lucrative the content discovery business for APPS is, even though the company mainly worked with the Android OS. Now, the company has a full-stack ad tech platform for its expanded digital media business. Therefore, we think this is a marvelous opportunity for Apple, as the owner of the iOS ecosystem, to expand on its content discovery offerings for its app developers who want to cut through the clutter of apps to appear in front of consumers, which is a $500M business for Digital Turbine's work on the Android OS. Although it's not a big deal for Apple, it shows various opportunities for monetization that the company can expand into.</p>\n<p>In addition, Apple has also been able to capitalize on Google's advertising growth by using Google as the default search engine for iOS. Based onBernstein's estimates, Google paid about $10B to Apple for that in FY20, and thus it is an important revenue driver for the services segment, besides the App Store revenue.</p>\n<p>Importantly, Apple's ad revenue from its own App Store is estimated to account for$3B of FY21's revenue, up from a mere $300M in FY17, a 10x growth in 4 years. We don't find the projections unreasonable if readers refer to our Amazon article. The company grew its ad revenue by a CAGR of 74% from 2017 and 2019 and by 52% YoY even during 2020's pandemic year. The advertising momentum that Amazon has experienced from its e-commerce marketplace is truly phenomenal, which generates 90% of its advertising revenue, which was worth $21.45B in FY20, up from just $4.65B in FY17.</p>\n<p>Therefore we think the advertising potential from the App Store ads is likely to be in the early innings of its growth, and we highly encourage investors to watch this space closely. Even though Bernstein's estimates of about $20B (4.5% of FY25 estimated revenue) worth of ad revenue by FY25 may not be a blockbuster number when we compare it to FY25's estimated revenue of $447B, this is likely going be a highly profitable segment that can garner an operating margin in the range of 35% to 40% (equivalent to about $7b to $8B in operating profits) as we demonstrated in our Amazon article. Against an estimated EBIT of $104.9B by FY25, a 7% potential contribution from advertising that is growing is definitely an important diversification from the troubles brewing over its App Store take rate, as well as a potential slowdown in growth on its hardware segments.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Stock Looks Fairly Valued for Now</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e307e213aa591ed575a94d8d851f02ae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>EBIT multiples valuation comps set. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02c49b9d4862250203a702d7038923cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>EBITDA multiples valuation comps set. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</i></p>\n<p>We think why investors have often found it challenging to understand the valuation for AAPL is because they often compared it to its smartphone peers such as Samsung(OTC:SSNLF)(KRX:A005930) or Xiaomi(OTCPK:XIACY), which trade at much lower valuation multiples (whether EBIT or EBITDA) as compared to AAPL, especially when AAPL is not expected to be growing as fast, moving forward.</p>\n<p>Investors should observe that AAPL is trading as if it's a major player in the digital advertising market like its FAANG peers: Alphabet and Facebook. We think for investors to make sense of Apple's valuation, it really depends on how Apple will be able to monetize its huge installed base and grow its advertising revenue rapidly to convince investors that it's deserving of its premium price, even though it remains a highly profitable business, much more than Xiaomi.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c059c6e6a89d5a187415238276831a5b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>AAPL Street mean target price. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium</i></p>\n<p>We decided to give AAPL the benefit of the doubt and valued the company based on its estimated FY22 trading multiples (EBIT: 20.7x, EBITDA: 18.9x) and derived an implied fair value of around $143.9 based on its EBIT and EBITDA multiples at the midpoint of its fair value range. This suggests that the stock has a potential downside of about 6% (not including the margin of safety) from its last closing price of $153.90. Readers who would like to review our valuation models can refer to themhereandhere.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, based on the Street's mean target price of $164.33, the stock is valued at an FY22 implied EBIT multiple of about 22.1x, which we think looks like a premium valuation that the Street is willing to extend the Cupertino company.</p>\n<p><b>Price Action and Trend Analysis</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06b641ba94ad84041dc4506b96cefb32\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>AAPL stock price action (weekly).</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc9058c67b259dc384c1912b1a5e9074\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>AAPL EV/Fwd EBIT trend.</i></p>\n<p>While we don't find a preferred entry point on AAPL right now, AAPL stock's long-term uptrend is unambivalent no matter how we see it. In addition, investors can easily glean from its EV/Fwd EBIT trend that the stock has never traded cheaply over the last 5 years with a mean EBIT multiple of about 14.6x, even though the market is willing to value AAPL at a much higher valuation now at 22.97x EBIT.</p>\n<p>Therefore, while we are excited about the company's growth prospects around its advertising segment and its App Stores potential given its huge installed base, we are wary of the valuation placed by the market on AAPL right now and encourage investors to wait for a major retracement, before considering adding new exposure to AAPL.</p>\n<p>As a result, we<i>rate AAPL at neutral</i>for now.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell? Wait For The Dip First To Buy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell? Wait For The Dip First To Buy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-07 22:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453887-apple-stock-good-time-buy-sell><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple is facing potential headwinds regarding its App Store take rate, but investors should be reminded that such issues are nothing new for the company.\nEven though iPhone is still the key ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453887-apple-stock-good-time-buy-sell\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453887-apple-stock-good-time-buy-sell","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1139582863","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is facing potential headwinds regarding its App Store take rate, but investors should be reminded that such issues are nothing new for the company.\nEven though iPhone is still the key revenue and profit driver, investors should watch its fast-growing services segment closely.\nNevertheless, Apple needs to demonstrate that it can grow its services segment quickly moving forward to justify its premium valuation.\nGiven its valuation right now, it's hard for us to justify a Buy rating, but we don't encourage readers to bet against the company as well.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nApple(NASDAQ:AAPL)recently celebrated CEO Tim Cook's tenth year in charge since its visionary founder, the late Steve Jobs, stepped down in Aug 2011. Under Tim Cook's stewardship, the iPhone continues to be a key revenue driver since reinventing the smartphone landscape 15 years ago and helped AAPL reached the pinnacle as the world's most valuable company.\nWhile the media focused their attention on the regulatory concerns regarding its 30% take rate from its App Store, AAPL's investors have largely brushed it aside as they turned their eye to the impending iPhone 13 launch knowing that having to contend with regulators is nothing new, and is largely expected, as they are smart enough to focus on the forest and not the trees.\nIn this article, we help our readers to focus on the big picture of Apple's burgeoning services segment, which we think investors don't give enough credit to CEO Tim Cook for, even as the company navigates high expectations with its iPhone 13 sales, 5G ramp and an expected slowdown in revenue and profit growth moving forward.\nWe will also present our valuation argument for Apple Inc., from the EBIT and EBITDA perspective, as well as our analysis of AAPL stock's price action to help investors decide whether to add exposure to AAPL now.\nApple Stock YTD Performance\nFAANG YTD performance (as of 2 Sep 21).\nAAPL stock's YTD performance has underperformed Invesco QQQ ETF(NASDAQ:QQQ), together with Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)and Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX), as Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)and Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)easily outperformed the trio with their fast-growing, highly profitable, and dominant digital advertising duopoly (that we highlighted in a recent The Trade Desk(NASDAQ:TTD)article, appendedhere).\nTheglobal digital advertising marketis expected to continue its stellar expansion as the market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 14.3% from $378B in 2020 to $646B by 2024, while the global smartphone market (by shipment) is only expected to grow by 7.7% YoY in 2021 to 1.38B units, and YoY growth is expected to slow subsequently to 3.8% in 2022 and then to about 2% by 2025 according toIDC forecasts. Therefore we think that the 5G ramp will likely boost sales from Apple's 5G upgrade through 2022 before the going gets tougher moving forward. As a result, AAPL's share price may likely face growth headwinds due to the stock's current valuation, which we will discuss in the subsequent sections.\niPhone is Important, But Apple's Services Segment is Growing Its Clout\nApple total revenue (by FY and LTM) and revenue forecast mean consensus. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nApple revenue by product (By FY). Data source: Company filings\nWhile consistent, Apple's revenue growth from 2016 to 2020 was certainly not spectacular as it grew by a CAGR of just 6.22%, even though 2021 has been a remarkable year as its LTM revenue reached $347B. Readers should also be able to easily glean that the Street is also not optimistic that Apple would be able to continue its stellar 2021 performance moving forward as revenue is expected to increase from $366B in FY21 to $447B by FY25, which represents a CAGR of just about 5.1% over the next 4 years, that's even slower than its FY16 to the FY20 CAGR.\nAn important point for investors to note is that iPhone's revenue actually fell in FY19 and FY20, and despite that, the company still managed to eke out an increase in revenue in FY20. Notably, Apple's services segment has been growing remarkably to support the company's revenue growth. Its revenue increased by a CAGR of 20.3% from FY18 to FY20. Its revenue also reached $50.2B based on its collective performance from Q1'21 to Q3'21.\nTherefore, while iPhone continues to be a vital segment for the company as it accounted for 54.2% of the first three quarters' revenue, astute investors have been keeping an eye on the company's fast-growing services segment, which they believe will be the key driver of growth for the company moving forward.\nIn fact, we think Roku(NASDAQ:ROKU)might even have found Apple's margins with its hardware segments enviable, as investors in Roku know that the Connected TV (CTV) platform leader uses a low-margin hardware penetration gameplan to attract users onto its platform for the company to leverage their highly effective monetization strategies (we shared this in a recent Roku article, link to the article is appendedhere), that the company was willing to even go into negative margins in Q2 to absorb the costs pressure relating to the semiconductor supply chain issues.\nHowever, Apple operates with a much higher gross margin for its hardware segments, which has been close to 40% over time, which has not only helped to make a tidy profit off its hardware but has also given the company a huge installed base of Apple devices to monetize through its services segment.\nIn our recent article on Digital Turbine(NASDAQ:APPS), we shared that iOS has a global market share of about 26.3%, against an estimated global installed base of 6.2B units in 2021 (link to the article is appendedhere). This means that Apple is expected to have a total iOS installed base of about 1.63B units by the end of this year that the company can leverage, and we think the potential is massive.\nAccording to Apple's filings, its services segment consists of sales \"from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare®, digital content, and other services. Services net sales also include amortization of the deferred value of Maps, Siri, and free iCloud storage and Apple TV+SM services, which are bundled in the sales price of certain products.\"\nTherefore, it's a segment with huge potential. Currently, the most important sub-segment within services is none other than its lucrative Apps store. Even more amazing is that despite iOS having only a 26% share of the global installed base, Apps store revenue has consistently outperformed Google Play revenue. The same trend is expected to continue as iOS consumers were expected to spend $41.5B in H1'21 compared to $23.4B for Google Play consumers from an earlierstudy in Juneby Sensor Tower. Using a 30% take rate as a basis, the Apps Store was expected to generate about $12.45B in commissions, accounting for 38.1% of H1'21 services revenue of $32.7B. Importantly, this is also a highly profitable segment, ascourt documentson Alphabet showed that its Play store posted an operating margin of 62.5% in 2019 (Google doesn't break out its Play store margins).\nApp Store profitability estimates analysis. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, various company filings, Reuters, Alphabet\nIf we consider Apple's overall LTM operating margin of 28.8%, then we are pretty sure App's store margins are a big deal, even though based on its annual run rate of $25B, it is only expected to account for just 6.8% of FY21 consensus revenue estimates. However, if we look at Apple Inc.'s FY21 EBIT estimates of $108.7B (estimated EBIT margin of 29.7%), the App Store is expected to account for 14.4% of Apple's total EBIT estimates for FY21. It's unequivocally a crucial revenue and profit driver for Apple to protect and sustain, especially since the App Store revenue grew 22.1% YoY in H1'21. Moreover, with Apple's iPhone sales doing extremely well in FY21 so far (iPhone's revenue for Q1-Q3 has already exceeded FY19 and FY20 total iPhone revenue), we think the momentum for App Store is only just getting started.\nThe App Store is a Key Beneficiary of Mobile Gaming\nMobile gaming content market worldwide. Data source: Capcom; International Development Group\nMobile gaming is expected to grow consistently over the next few years, from $121.1B in 2020 to $169.7B by 2025, representing a CAGR of about 7%. We highlighted in our recent articles on Roblox(NYSE:RBLX)and Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)how mobile gaming's secular growth is not just a COVID-19 phenomenon (link to the articles are appendedhereandhere).\nTherefore, it's clear that the App Store is a key beneficiary of mobile gaming's secular growth, and we can definitely observe in its H1'21 performance as in-game spending increased by 13.5% YoY from $22.9B in H1'20 to $26B in H1'21, which also represented 62.7% of App Store's H1'21 revenue.\nTherefore, we are not surprised that the recent furor over Apple's take rate from the App Store has caused lots of confusion and chatter about whether it will lead to the dismantling of Apple's closely-guarded, highly lucrative revenue stream.\nWe think Apple has certainly recognized the need to placate regulators about its supposed \"monopolistic\" behavior by allowing theso-called reader appsto be exempted from its commissions. Still, it is important to note that this does not affect gaming apps and in-app purchases, thus allowing Apple to continue relying on their most lucrative gaming apps to drive revenue growth.\nDespite that, therecent billby the South Korean parliament to disallow app store operators from charging commissions on in-app purchases should be carefully watched, as this may have ramifications around the world if regulators were to follow the signal from South Korea. Nevertheless, we will like to remind our readers not to overreact to such developments but to keep calm and observe. Apple didn't get to become the world's most valuable company without overcoming its fair share of regulatory issues, and we should certainly expect the management to show similar resilience and fortitude as they had in the past.\nAdvertising is the Trump Card\nWe highlighted previously in our recent article on Amazon where we discussed why advertising is the most underrated segment for the e-commerce behemoth, as it's the company's fastest-growing segment (link to the article is appendedhere).\nWe think likewise for Apple; we encourage investors never to underestimate Apple's ability to monetize its users. We have seen earlier how, despite iOS having just 26% of the global installed base, the App Store revenue easily outsized Google Play's revenue in H1'21. With a global installed base that's 1.6B and growing, there are many monetization opportunities that Apple can certainly leverage.\nFor example, in our Digital Turbine articles (the most recent one ishere), we showed how lucrative the content discovery business for APPS is, even though the company mainly worked with the Android OS. Now, the company has a full-stack ad tech platform for its expanded digital media business. Therefore, we think this is a marvelous opportunity for Apple, as the owner of the iOS ecosystem, to expand on its content discovery offerings for its app developers who want to cut through the clutter of apps to appear in front of consumers, which is a $500M business for Digital Turbine's work on the Android OS. Although it's not a big deal for Apple, it shows various opportunities for monetization that the company can expand into.\nIn addition, Apple has also been able to capitalize on Google's advertising growth by using Google as the default search engine for iOS. Based onBernstein's estimates, Google paid about $10B to Apple for that in FY20, and thus it is an important revenue driver for the services segment, besides the App Store revenue.\nImportantly, Apple's ad revenue from its own App Store is estimated to account for$3B of FY21's revenue, up from a mere $300M in FY17, a 10x growth in 4 years. We don't find the projections unreasonable if readers refer to our Amazon article. The company grew its ad revenue by a CAGR of 74% from 2017 and 2019 and by 52% YoY even during 2020's pandemic year. The advertising momentum that Amazon has experienced from its e-commerce marketplace is truly phenomenal, which generates 90% of its advertising revenue, which was worth $21.45B in FY20, up from just $4.65B in FY17.\nTherefore we think the advertising potential from the App Store ads is likely to be in the early innings of its growth, and we highly encourage investors to watch this space closely. Even though Bernstein's estimates of about $20B (4.5% of FY25 estimated revenue) worth of ad revenue by FY25 may not be a blockbuster number when we compare it to FY25's estimated revenue of $447B, this is likely going be a highly profitable segment that can garner an operating margin in the range of 35% to 40% (equivalent to about $7b to $8B in operating profits) as we demonstrated in our Amazon article. Against an estimated EBIT of $104.9B by FY25, a 7% potential contribution from advertising that is growing is definitely an important diversification from the troubles brewing over its App Store take rate, as well as a potential slowdown in growth on its hardware segments.\nApple Stock Looks Fairly Valued for Now\nEBIT multiples valuation comps set. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEBITDA multiples valuation comps set. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe think why investors have often found it challenging to understand the valuation for AAPL is because they often compared it to its smartphone peers such as Samsung(OTC:SSNLF)(KRX:A005930) or Xiaomi(OTCPK:XIACY), which trade at much lower valuation multiples (whether EBIT or EBITDA) as compared to AAPL, especially when AAPL is not expected to be growing as fast, moving forward.\nInvestors should observe that AAPL is trading as if it's a major player in the digital advertising market like its FAANG peers: Alphabet and Facebook. We think for investors to make sense of Apple's valuation, it really depends on how Apple will be able to monetize its huge installed base and grow its advertising revenue rapidly to convince investors that it's deserving of its premium price, even though it remains a highly profitable business, much more than Xiaomi.\nAAPL Street mean target price. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium\nWe decided to give AAPL the benefit of the doubt and valued the company based on its estimated FY22 trading multiples (EBIT: 20.7x, EBITDA: 18.9x) and derived an implied fair value of around $143.9 based on its EBIT and EBITDA multiples at the midpoint of its fair value range. This suggests that the stock has a potential downside of about 6% (not including the margin of safety) from its last closing price of $153.90. Readers who would like to review our valuation models can refer to themhereandhere.\nMeanwhile, based on the Street's mean target price of $164.33, the stock is valued at an FY22 implied EBIT multiple of about 22.1x, which we think looks like a premium valuation that the Street is willing to extend the Cupertino company.\nPrice Action and Trend Analysis\nAAPL stock price action (weekly).\nAAPL EV/Fwd EBIT trend.\nWhile we don't find a preferred entry point on AAPL right now, AAPL stock's long-term uptrend is unambivalent no matter how we see it. In addition, investors can easily glean from its EV/Fwd EBIT trend that the stock has never traded cheaply over the last 5 years with a mean EBIT multiple of about 14.6x, even though the market is willing to value AAPL at a much higher valuation now at 22.97x EBIT.\nTherefore, while we are excited about the company's growth prospects around its advertising segment and its App Stores potential given its huge installed base, we are wary of the valuation placed by the market on AAPL right now and encourage investors to wait for a major retracement, before considering adding new exposure to AAPL.\nAs a result, werate AAPL at neutralfor now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":28,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816392351,"gmtCreate":1630465126473,"gmtModify":1633677852772,"author":{"id":"3581738832645942","authorId":"3581738832645942","authorIdStr":"3581738832645942","name":"虎视Tan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8937bd48ee9805c92670bd1c3dd8e06","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581738832645942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👏","listText":"👏","text":"👏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816392351","repostId":"1151928105","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813972310,"gmtCreate":1630126298330,"gmtModify":1704956350304,"author":{"id":"3581738832645942","authorId":"3581738832645942","authorIdStr":"3581738832645942","name":"虎视Tan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8937bd48ee9805c92670bd1c3dd8e06","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581738832645942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good try","listText":"Good try","text":"Good try","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813972310","repostId":"1165379113","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165379113","pubTimestamp":1630075265,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1165379113?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-27 22:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Wants to Become an Electricity Retailer in Texas. What To Know.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165379113","media":"Barrons","summary":"A Tesla subsidiary has applied to become an electricity retailer in Texas, moving to widen the energ","content":"<p>A Tesla subsidiary has applied to become an electricity retailer in Texas, moving to widen the energy ambitions of Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle company in a state with a power grid that came under scrutiny after failing in a February winter storm.</p>\n<p>Tesla Energy Ventures, a subsidiary of Tesla formed in late July, wants to sell power directly to customers as a retail electricity provider, according to an August 16 filing with the Texas Public Utility Commission.</p>\n<p>Shares in Tesla were 0.6% higher in U.S. premarket trading on Friday, outpacing a rise in futures for the&nbsp;Nasdaq 100&nbsp;index, of which Tesla is a component.</p>\n<p>Tesla also intends to build two massive utility-scale batteries to serve power companies in the state, according to Texas Monthly,which first reported the news&nbsp;on Thursday and said that the filing could be approved by November.</p>\n<p>One of those batteries would reportedly be located at a gigafactory outside Austin, where the Cybertruck and Model Y SUV are slated to be built, with another located outside Houston,based on a report from Bloomberg.</p>\n<p>Texas’ deregulated power grid includes well over 100 companies selling to consumers. The state’s power system came under the spotlight this winter, when&nbsp;a February storm&nbsp;left millions without electricity for several days.</p>\n<p>Tesla hoped to enter the Texas power market earlier, before the widespread blackouts in February, according to the Texas Monthly report.</p>\n<p>The company has a history of building utility-scale power storage, with developments in California and Australia, but becoming an electricity retailer in Texas would be a significant milestone in the expansion of Tesla’s energy division.</p>\n<p>“I can’t emphasize enough, I think long term, Tesla Energy will be of roughly the same size as Tesla Automotive,” Musk told investors last summer, after the company’s second-quarter earnings in July 2020.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Wants to Become an Electricity Retailer in Texas. 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What To Know.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-27 22:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-wants-to-become-an-electricity-retailer-in-texas-what-to-know-51630066304?mod=hp_DAY_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A Tesla subsidiary has applied to become an electricity retailer in Texas, moving to widen the energy ambitions of Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle company in a state with a power grid that came under ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-wants-to-become-an-electricity-retailer-in-texas-what-to-know-51630066304?mod=hp_DAY_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-wants-to-become-an-electricity-retailer-in-texas-what-to-know-51630066304?mod=hp_DAY_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165379113","content_text":"A Tesla subsidiary has applied to become an electricity retailer in Texas, moving to widen the energy ambitions of Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle company in a state with a power grid that came under scrutiny after failing in a February winter storm.\nTesla Energy Ventures, a subsidiary of Tesla formed in late July, wants to sell power directly to customers as a retail electricity provider, according to an August 16 filing with the Texas Public Utility Commission.\nShares in Tesla were 0.6% higher in U.S. premarket trading on Friday, outpacing a rise in futures for the Nasdaq 100 index, of which Tesla is a component.\nTesla also intends to build two massive utility-scale batteries to serve power companies in the state, according to Texas Monthly,which first reported the news on Thursday and said that the filing could be approved by November.\nOne of those batteries would reportedly be located at a gigafactory outside Austin, where the Cybertruck and Model Y SUV are slated to be built, with another located outside Houston,based on a report from Bloomberg.\nTexas’ deregulated power grid includes well over 100 companies selling to consumers. The state’s power system came under the spotlight this winter, when a February storm left millions without electricity for several days.\nTesla hoped to enter the Texas power market earlier, before the widespread blackouts in February, according to the Texas Monthly report.\nThe company has a history of building utility-scale power storage, with developments in California and Australia, but becoming an electricity retailer in Texas would be a significant milestone in the expansion of Tesla’s energy division.\n“I can’t emphasize enough, I think long term, Tesla Energy will be of roughly the same size as Tesla Automotive,” Musk told investors last summer, after the company’s second-quarter earnings in July 2020.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":88,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177662993,"gmtCreate":1627211915712,"gmtModify":1633767137985,"author":{"id":"3581738832645942","authorId":"3581738832645942","authorIdStr":"3581738832645942","name":"虎视Tan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8937bd48ee9805c92670bd1c3dd8e06","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581738832645942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can’t decide, buy both&nbsp;","listText":"Can’t decide, buy both&nbsp;","text":"Can’t decide, buy both","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177662993","repostId":"2153350439","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153350439","pubTimestamp":1627177056,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2153350439?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Better Buy: Nvidia vs. Micron Technology","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153350439","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Which of these two high-growth chipmakers deserves your money?","content":"<p>Chipmakers <b>Nvidia</b> (NASDAQ:NVDA) and <b>Micron Technology</b> (NASDAQ:MU) have had very different experiences on the stock market so far in 2021, even though both companies have been delivering stellar results quarter after quarter. While Nvidia stock has handily beaten the market, Micron shares have remained nearly flat thus far.</p>\n<p>Is this a signal that investors should start dumping Micron stock and load up on Nvidia? Well, like many market questions, this <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> doesn't have a simple answer. Here's what investors need to know.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8cb26fa463f644e155f261e6a69f336\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"387\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>^SPX data by YCharts</span></p>\n<h2>The case for Micron Technology</h2>\n<p>Micron Technology is benefiting from the terrific demand for memory chips. The memory specialist's revenue jumped 36% year over year in the fiscal third quarter (ended June 3, 2021), while earnings more than doubled to $1.88 per share from $0.82 per share in the prior-year period.</p>\n<p>Micron's fourth-quarter guidance suggests that it isn't going to run out of steam anytime soon. The company's $8.2 billion revenue guidance for this quarter would translate into a 36% year-over-year gain, while the $2.30 per share adjusted earnings forecast means that its bottom line is on track to more than double from the prior-year period's $1.08 per&nbsp;share.</p>\n<p>However, the market hasn't appreciated this terrific growth, as the muted stock price performance shows. But that may not be the case forever, as Micron is sitting on a bunch of solid catalysts, which seem strong enough to help it maintain its high levels of growth in the long run.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d37411519d470ff3c53a15776d3013c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Micron's compute and networking business unit (CNBU), which is its largest source of revenue and accounts for 44.5% of its top line, witnessed nearly 49% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3. Micron caters to the personal computer (PC), cloud server, enterprise, graphics, and networking markets through this segment. There is great demand for memory chips in all these markets, which is leading to tight supplies and higher prices.</p>\n<p>Memory market research firm TrendForce estimates that the price of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) could increase between 3% and 8% in the third quarter of the calendar year over Q2. The price increase is a result of strong server and PC DRAM demand and constrained supply.</p>\n<p>Similarly, the demand for NAND flash has also remained high due to the increased adoption of SSDs (solid-state drives) in both consumer PCs and enterprise hardware. A tight supply means that the price of NAND flash memory is expected to increase between 5% and 10% this quarter, which bodes well for Micron's storage business unit (SBU). The segment produced 13% of Micron's top line last quarter, and its revenue was flat year over year at $1 billion -- but it could improve given the end-market dynamics.</p>\n<p>The mobile business unit, meanwhile, has hit a purple patch. Its revenue increased 31% year over year in Q3 thanks to the ramp-up in 5G smartphone demand. With 5G smartphones expected to increase at a whopping pace in the next five years, Micron's mobile business has room to run higher.</p>\n<p>The robust memory demand isn't going to go away anytime soon. According to a third-party forecast, memory chip demand is expected to increase 31.7% in 2021, followed by a double-digit increase in 2022, which explains why analysts expect&nbsp;Micron's growth to pick up the pace next fiscal year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11c5f766491fbfe99b0a6f8d1f0d45f6\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MU Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts</span></p>\n<h2>The case for Nvidia</h2>\n<p>Nvidia's stock market returns in 2021 have been driven by the company's outstanding results. The graphics specialist is growing at a much faster pace than Micron, with its fiscal first-quarter revenue jumping 84% year over year to $5.66 billion. Tremendous demand for Nvidia's graphics cards, which are used in PCs, sent its video gaming revenue soaring. The segment's revenue doubled year over year and accounted for close to half of its top line.</p>\n<p>There are two reasons why the video gaming segment is set for terrific growth in the long haul. First, Nvidia dominates this market with a market share of 81%, according to Jon Peddie Research. It is also worth noting that the chipmaker has substantially increased its presence in the gaming laptop market.</p>\n<p>The company's dominant position in the gaming graphics card market brings us to the second reason why this segment is built for growth. Jon Peddie Research estimates that gaming graphics cards could generate $54 billion in revenue by 2025, which would be a big jump over last year's sales of $23.6 billion. Nvidia sold&nbsp;$7.76 billion worth of graphics cards in fiscal 2021, so the additional revenue opportunity on offer and the company's huge market share indicates that this business still has a lot of room for growth.</p>\n<p>There's a similar story to Nvidia's data center business, which is its second-largest source of revenue. The segment's revenue shot up 79% year over year in Q1, crossing $2 billion in quarterly sales for the first&nbsp;time. With the data center accelerator market expected to clock $53 billion in annual revenue by the end of 2027, according to a third-party estimate, the segment's growth streak seems sustainable.</p>\n<p>Nvidia is doing well in the market for data center graphics processing units (GPUs), with large cloud service providers preferring to use the company's chips to accelerate workloads. The data center GPU market alone is expected to generate $20 billion in revenue by 2027. Nvidia sold almost $6.7 billion worth of data center GPUs last fiscal year, and the massive revenue opportunity points toward more upside in this business.</p>\n<p>Throw in the fact that Nvidia is now moving to tap the other fast-growing niches of the data center accelerator market, such as server central processing units (CPUs) and data processing units (DPUs), and it becomes easier to see why this segment probably won't run out of steam. Such solid growth drivers make it clear why Nvidia's earnings are expected to jump substantially in the future at an annual pace of nearly 27%.</p>\n<h2>The verdict</h2>\n<p>It is evident that both Nvidia and Micron Technology have impressive catalysts that could help them sustain their impressive pace of growth. Value-oriented investors, however, may lean toward buying Micron stock, as it trades at just 20 times trailing earnings, compared to Nvidia's multiple of nearly 91.</p>\n<p>But then, Nvidia is growing at a much faster rate than Micron, as we saw above, which is why its premium seems justified. Additionally, Nvidia dominates its space, while Micron faces competition from the likes of <b>SK Hynix</b> and <b>Samsung</b>. Micron reportedly controls 23.5% of the DRAM market, which makes it a smaller player than the other two, while it stands in fourth position in the NAND market, with a share of just&nbsp;11.2%.</p>\n<p>That's why investors with a higher risk tolerance might want to consider buying Nvidia stock to benefit from the tech giant's supremacy in graphics cards, as it seems capable of outperforming Micron in the future like it has done so far this year.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Better Buy: Nvidia vs. Micron Technology</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBetter Buy: Nvidia vs. Micron Technology\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-25 09:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/24/better-buy-nvidia-vs-micron-technology/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Chipmakers Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) have had very different experiences on the stock market so far in 2021, even though both companies have been delivering stellar ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/24/better-buy-nvidia-vs-micron-technology/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/24/better-buy-nvidia-vs-micron-technology/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153350439","content_text":"Chipmakers Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) have had very different experiences on the stock market so far in 2021, even though both companies have been delivering stellar results quarter after quarter. While Nvidia stock has handily beaten the market, Micron shares have remained nearly flat thus far.\nIs this a signal that investors should start dumping Micron stock and load up on Nvidia? Well, like many market questions, this one doesn't have a simple answer. Here's what investors need to know.\n^SPX data by YCharts\nThe case for Micron Technology\nMicron Technology is benefiting from the terrific demand for memory chips. The memory specialist's revenue jumped 36% year over year in the fiscal third quarter (ended June 3, 2021), while earnings more than doubled to $1.88 per share from $0.82 per share in the prior-year period.\nMicron's fourth-quarter guidance suggests that it isn't going to run out of steam anytime soon. The company's $8.2 billion revenue guidance for this quarter would translate into a 36% year-over-year gain, while the $2.30 per share adjusted earnings forecast means that its bottom line is on track to more than double from the prior-year period's $1.08 per share.\nHowever, the market hasn't appreciated this terrific growth, as the muted stock price performance shows. But that may not be the case forever, as Micron is sitting on a bunch of solid catalysts, which seem strong enough to help it maintain its high levels of growth in the long run.\nImage source: Getty Images\nMicron's compute and networking business unit (CNBU), which is its largest source of revenue and accounts for 44.5% of its top line, witnessed nearly 49% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3. Micron caters to the personal computer (PC), cloud server, enterprise, graphics, and networking markets through this segment. There is great demand for memory chips in all these markets, which is leading to tight supplies and higher prices.\nMemory market research firm TrendForce estimates that the price of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) could increase between 3% and 8% in the third quarter of the calendar year over Q2. The price increase is a result of strong server and PC DRAM demand and constrained supply.\nSimilarly, the demand for NAND flash has also remained high due to the increased adoption of SSDs (solid-state drives) in both consumer PCs and enterprise hardware. A tight supply means that the price of NAND flash memory is expected to increase between 5% and 10% this quarter, which bodes well for Micron's storage business unit (SBU). The segment produced 13% of Micron's top line last quarter, and its revenue was flat year over year at $1 billion -- but it could improve given the end-market dynamics.\nThe mobile business unit, meanwhile, has hit a purple patch. Its revenue increased 31% year over year in Q3 thanks to the ramp-up in 5G smartphone demand. With 5G smartphones expected to increase at a whopping pace in the next five years, Micron's mobile business has room to run higher.\nThe robust memory demand isn't going to go away anytime soon. According to a third-party forecast, memory chip demand is expected to increase 31.7% in 2021, followed by a double-digit increase in 2022, which explains why analysts expect Micron's growth to pick up the pace next fiscal year.\nMU Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts\nThe case for Nvidia\nNvidia's stock market returns in 2021 have been driven by the company's outstanding results. The graphics specialist is growing at a much faster pace than Micron, with its fiscal first-quarter revenue jumping 84% year over year to $5.66 billion. Tremendous demand for Nvidia's graphics cards, which are used in PCs, sent its video gaming revenue soaring. The segment's revenue doubled year over year and accounted for close to half of its top line.\nThere are two reasons why the video gaming segment is set for terrific growth in the long haul. First, Nvidia dominates this market with a market share of 81%, according to Jon Peddie Research. It is also worth noting that the chipmaker has substantially increased its presence in the gaming laptop market.\nThe company's dominant position in the gaming graphics card market brings us to the second reason why this segment is built for growth. Jon Peddie Research estimates that gaming graphics cards could generate $54 billion in revenue by 2025, which would be a big jump over last year's sales of $23.6 billion. Nvidia sold $7.76 billion worth of graphics cards in fiscal 2021, so the additional revenue opportunity on offer and the company's huge market share indicates that this business still has a lot of room for growth.\nThere's a similar story to Nvidia's data center business, which is its second-largest source of revenue. The segment's revenue shot up 79% year over year in Q1, crossing $2 billion in quarterly sales for the first time. With the data center accelerator market expected to clock $53 billion in annual revenue by the end of 2027, according to a third-party estimate, the segment's growth streak seems sustainable.\nNvidia is doing well in the market for data center graphics processing units (GPUs), with large cloud service providers preferring to use the company's chips to accelerate workloads. The data center GPU market alone is expected to generate $20 billion in revenue by 2027. Nvidia sold almost $6.7 billion worth of data center GPUs last fiscal year, and the massive revenue opportunity points toward more upside in this business.\nThrow in the fact that Nvidia is now moving to tap the other fast-growing niches of the data center accelerator market, such as server central processing units (CPUs) and data processing units (DPUs), and it becomes easier to see why this segment probably won't run out of steam. Such solid growth drivers make it clear why Nvidia's earnings are expected to jump substantially in the future at an annual pace of nearly 27%.\nThe verdict\nIt is evident that both Nvidia and Micron Technology have impressive catalysts that could help them sustain their impressive pace of growth. Value-oriented investors, however, may lean toward buying Micron stock, as it trades at just 20 times trailing earnings, compared to Nvidia's multiple of nearly 91.\nBut then, Nvidia is growing at a much faster rate than Micron, as we saw above, which is why its premium seems justified. Additionally, Nvidia dominates its space, while Micron faces competition from the likes of SK Hynix and Samsung. Micron reportedly controls 23.5% of the DRAM market, which makes it a smaller player than the other two, while it stands in fourth position in the NAND market, with a share of just 11.2%.\nThat's why investors with a higher risk tolerance might want to consider buying Nvidia stock to benefit from the tech giant's supremacy in graphics cards, as it seems capable of outperforming Micron in the future like it has done so far this year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":100,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809609826,"gmtCreate":1627362099165,"gmtModify":1633765706091,"author":{"id":"3581738832645942","authorId":"3581738832645942","authorIdStr":"3581738832645942","name":"虎视Tan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8937bd48ee9805c92670bd1c3dd8e06","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581738832645942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good move why not set sight on&nbsp;dengue","listText":"Good move why not set sight on&nbsp;dengue","text":"Good move why not set sight on dengue","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809609826","repostId":"1153403036","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153403036","pubTimestamp":1627356038,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153403036?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 11:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"After Covid, BioNTech Has Its Sights Set on Malaria","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153403036","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"BioNTech entered 2020 as a well-respected — if a bit under-the-radar — biotech company. A little mor","content":"<p>BioNTech entered 2020 as a well-respected — if a bit under-the-radar — biotech company. A little more than a year later, the firm is world-famous for creating one of the most successful coronavirus vaccines, its shares are up 150%, and co-founder Uğur Şahin is now one of the world's 500 richest people. Not too shabby.</p>\n<p>On Monday, the company announced its next quest: a solo venture to develop a shot that will prevent malaria, one of the world's deadliest diseases and a notorious enigma for vaccine producers.</p>\n<p>The Hardest Pathogen to Hack</p>\n<p>There is currently only one approved malaria vaccine. Mosquirix, developed by GlaxoSmithKline, is only 39% effective over four years. Meanwhile, there were 229 million malaria cases in 2019 — 94% of them in Africa — and 400,000 people die from the disease every year, almost all of them African children.</p>\n<p>BioNTech will develop malaria vaccine candidates using messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA), which directs the body to make parts of a virus to provoke an immune response. The firm will also produce and test other candidates at facilities in Africa:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>One such candidate, the first shot to clear the World Health Organization's 75% efficacy target, was introduced this year by the University of Oxford. It prevented 77% of cases in a study of 450 children in Burkina Faso, and a 4,800-child trial to confirm the results is in the planning stages.</li>\n <li>BioNTech is aiming to have mRNA malaria and tuberculosis vaccines ready for clinical trials next year, but said malaria could prove as difficult to research as cancer. The company has benchmarked €20 million to €50 million for early stage development.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>\"This will not be a home run,\" Şahin told the<i>Financial Times</i>. \"This is a pathogen which is really, really difficult to hack.\" Any malaria vaccine BioNTech develops will be sold in Africa on a non-profit basis, and the company is aiming for a shot that's 90% effective for one to two years.</p>\n<p><b>Invasive And Evasive:</b>Malaria is caused by a complex parasite that can potentially make thousands of antigens and has many methods of evading the immune system. Unlike many diseases, it's possible to catch again and again due to its complexity.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After Covid, BioNTech Has Its Sights Set on Malaria</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter Covid, BioNTech Has Its Sights Set on Malaria\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-27 11:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/26/after-covid-biontech-has-its-sights-set-on-malaria/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>BioNTech entered 2020 as a well-respected — if a bit under-the-radar — biotech company. A little more than a year later, the firm is world-famous for creating one of the most successful coronavirus ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/26/after-covid-biontech-has-its-sights-set-on-malaria/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BNTX":"BioNTech SE"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/26/after-covid-biontech-has-its-sights-set-on-malaria/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153403036","content_text":"BioNTech entered 2020 as a well-respected — if a bit under-the-radar — biotech company. A little more than a year later, the firm is world-famous for creating one of the most successful coronavirus vaccines, its shares are up 150%, and co-founder Uğur Şahin is now one of the world's 500 richest people. Not too shabby.\nOn Monday, the company announced its next quest: a solo venture to develop a shot that will prevent malaria, one of the world's deadliest diseases and a notorious enigma for vaccine producers.\nThe Hardest Pathogen to Hack\nThere is currently only one approved malaria vaccine. Mosquirix, developed by GlaxoSmithKline, is only 39% effective over four years. Meanwhile, there were 229 million malaria cases in 2019 — 94% of them in Africa — and 400,000 people die from the disease every year, almost all of them African children.\nBioNTech will develop malaria vaccine candidates using messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA), which directs the body to make parts of a virus to provoke an immune response. The firm will also produce and test other candidates at facilities in Africa:\n\nOne such candidate, the first shot to clear the World Health Organization's 75% efficacy target, was introduced this year by the University of Oxford. It prevented 77% of cases in a study of 450 children in Burkina Faso, and a 4,800-child trial to confirm the results is in the planning stages.\nBioNTech is aiming to have mRNA malaria and tuberculosis vaccines ready for clinical trials next year, but said malaria could prove as difficult to research as cancer. The company has benchmarked €20 million to €50 million for early stage development.\n\n\"This will not be a home run,\" Şahin told theFinancial Times. \"This is a pathogen which is really, really difficult to hack.\" Any malaria vaccine BioNTech develops will be sold in Africa on a non-profit basis, and the company is aiming for a shot that's 90% effective for one to two years.\nInvasive And Evasive:Malaria is caused by a complex parasite that can potentially make thousands of antigens and has many methods of evading the immune system. Unlike many diseases, it's possible to catch again and again due to its complexity.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174787327,"gmtCreate":1627140336769,"gmtModify":1633767685156,"author":{"id":"3581738832645942","authorId":"3581738832645942","authorIdStr":"3581738832645942","name":"虎视Tan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8937bd48ee9805c92670bd1c3dd8e06","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581738832645942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"💪🏾","listText":"💪🏾","text":"💪🏾","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174787327","repostId":"1181195967","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":19,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815912528,"gmtCreate":1630634914764,"gmtModify":1632469107767,"author":{"id":"3581738832645942","authorId":"3581738832645942","authorIdStr":"3581738832645942","name":"虎视Tan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8937bd48ee9805c92670bd1c3dd8e06","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581738832645942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815912528","repostId":"1100723445","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801714428,"gmtCreate":1627534667464,"gmtModify":1633764019098,"author":{"id":"3581738832645942","authorId":"3581738832645942","authorIdStr":"3581738832645942","name":"虎视Tan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8937bd48ee9805c92670bd1c3dd8e06","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581738832645942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👏","listText":"👏","text":"👏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801714428","repostId":"2154292401","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":66,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177668185,"gmtCreate":1627211574347,"gmtModify":1633767139671,"author":{"id":"3581738832645942","authorId":"3581738832645942","authorIdStr":"3581738832645942","name":"虎视Tan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8937bd48ee9805c92670bd1c3dd8e06","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581738832645942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read 👍","listText":"Read 👍","text":"Read 👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177668185","repostId":"1153219140","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":26,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177684423,"gmtCreate":1627210641162,"gmtModify":1631885569480,"author":{"id":"3581738832645942","authorId":"3581738832645942","authorIdStr":"3581738832645942","name":"虎视Tan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8937bd48ee9805c92670bd1c3dd8e06","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581738832645942"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Square 👍","listText":"Square 👍","text":"Square 👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177684423","repostId":"2153936352","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153936352","pubTimestamp":1627180340,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2153936352?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 10:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will Square Be Worth More Than PayPal by 2025?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153936352","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Could the ambitious fintech company overtake the market leader?","content":"<p><b>Square</b> (NYSE:SQ) and <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a></b> (NASDAQ:PYPL) have both generated massive returns for patient investors over the past few years. Square went public at $9 per share in late 2015, and it's now trading at around $260. PayPal, which was spun off from<b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a> </b>(NASDAQ:EBAY) earlier that year, has advanced more than 720% since its debut to over $300 per share.</p>\n<p>Square is worth nearly $120 billion as of this writing, while PayPal is worth over $350 billion. That isn't surprising, since PayPal still serves a much larger audience and operates in more countries than Square. But gazing into the future, could Square eventually match -- or even surpass -- PayPal's valuation by 2025? Let's examine both fintech companies' growth trajectories and valuations to find out.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3384d45efb17ed54b398c7dbcc043fb\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2><b>Wild ambitions vs. stable growth</b></h2>\n<p>Square and PayPal's core business models are similar. Both companies charge businesses flat fees, which vary by platform and transaction type, to process payments. Both companies offer small business loans. Square's Cash App and PayPal's Venmo both enable consumers to make peer-to-peer payments, and both companies provide branded debit cards that are linked to users' online accounts.</p>\n<p>But Square has been willing to take bolder risks than PayPal over the past few years. It expanded its services ecosystem with online payroll management services and analytics tools, and recently launched a full suite of online banking services. Square also added <b>Bitcoin</b> (CRYPTO:BTC) purchases to its Cash App in 2018, added free stock trades to the app to challenge Robinhood in 2019, and plans to add Credit Karma's tax filing services to its ecosystem in the near future.</p>\n<p>PayPal only started offering cryptocurrency trades last October, and it doesn't have any near-term plans to launch stock trading tools or dedicated tax filing services, or expand into a full-blown online bank like Square. Simply put, Square seems to have wilder and grander ambitions than PayPal.</p>\n<h2>Which company is growing faster?</h2>\n<p>Between 2015 and 2020, Square grew its annual revenue at a CAGR of 49.6%. Excluding its massive gain in Bitcoin revenue last year, it would still have grown its revenue at a CAGR of 31.2% over the past five years. PayPal's annual revenue grew at a CAGR of 18.5% between 2015 and 2020. Let's take a look at Wall Street's expectations for both companies over the next two years.</p>\n<table border=\"1\" width=\"600\">\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr valign=\"TOP\">\n   <th width=\"118\"><p>Company</p></th>\n   <th width=\"213\"><p>Estimated Sales Growth (FY 2021)</p></th>\n   <th width=\"225\"><p>Estimated Sales Growth(FY 2022)</p></th>\n  </tr>\n  <tr valign=\"TOP\">\n   <td width=\"118\"><p><b>Square</b></p></td>\n   <td width=\"213\"><p>110.6%</p></td>\n   <td width=\"225\"><p>14.1%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr valign=\"TOP\">\n   <td width=\"118\"><p><b>PayPal</b></p></td>\n   <td width=\"213\"><p>20.6%</p></td>\n   <td width=\"225\"><p>21.5%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Source: Yahoo Finance, July 22.</p>\n<p>Analysts expect Square's Bitcoin revenue to continue rising this year before cooling off next year. They also expect its growth in transaction-based and seller service revenue, which slowed down during the pandemic, to recover as more businesses reopen. The Cash App, which grew its monthly active users 50% to 36 million in 2020, should also keep expanding as Square adds new services.</p>\n<p>Cathie Wood's ARK Invest expects Square's transaction-based and seller service revenues to grow at a CAGR of 19% through 2025. It also expects the Cash App's MAUs to more than double to 75 million, for Square to monetize roughly 40% of those users, and for its average revenue per Cash App user to grow from $25 in 2019 to $260 in 2025 -- which would represent a whopping CAGR of 49%.</p>\n<p>PayPal's growth should remain more predictable, since it doesn't generate significant revenue from cryptocurrencies yet. Instead, it will mainly rely on its growth in active accounts, which rose 21% year-over-year to 392 million last quarter, to generate stable revenue from its processing fees.</p>\n<p>PayPal expects to nearly double its active accounts to 750 million and <i>more than double</i> its annual revenue to over $50 billion by 2025. It also plans to grow its earnings at a CAGR of 22% from 2020 to 2025. It believes the rising acceptance of QR codes and NFC payments, the expansion of its financial services, and higher engagement rates for its apps will all drive that long-term growth.</p>\n<h2>Will Square be worth more than PayPal by 2025?</h2>\n<p>In a best-case scenario, ARK Invest believes Square's stock could hit $500 per share by 2025 if it hits its growth targets. But unlike PayPal, Square hasn't provided any concrete targets of its own yet.</p>\n<p>If Square hits $500 and its valuations hold steady, it could be worth just over $200 billion by 2025. Meanwhile, if PayPal achieves its goals of more than doubling its annual revenue and growing its EPS at a CAGR of 22% through 2025, its stock could easily double and boost its market cap to $700 billion.</p>\n<p>Therefore, it's doubtful that Square -- which already trades at higher valuations than PayPal -- will be the more valuable company by 2025. But that doesn't mean PayPal is necessarily a better growth stock than Square. I personally own Square instead of PayPal, because I admire its ambitious and forward-thinking strategies. Both stocks are still great long-term investments on the booming fintech market, so investors shouldn't fret too much over which company has the higher market cap.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Square Be Worth More Than PayPal by 2025?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Square Be Worth More Than PayPal by 2025?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-25 10:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/24/will-square-be-worth-more-than-paypal-by-2025/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Square (NYSE:SQ) and PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) have both generated massive returns for patient investors over the past few years. Square went public at $9 per share in late 2015, and it's now trading at ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/24/will-square-be-worth-more-than-paypal-by-2025/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SQ":"Block","PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/24/will-square-be-worth-more-than-paypal-by-2025/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153936352","content_text":"Square (NYSE:SQ) and PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) have both generated massive returns for patient investors over the past few years. Square went public at $9 per share in late 2015, and it's now trading at around $260. PayPal, which was spun off from eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) earlier that year, has advanced more than 720% since its debut to over $300 per share.\nSquare is worth nearly $120 billion as of this writing, while PayPal is worth over $350 billion. That isn't surprising, since PayPal still serves a much larger audience and operates in more countries than Square. But gazing into the future, could Square eventually match -- or even surpass -- PayPal's valuation by 2025? Let's examine both fintech companies' growth trajectories and valuations to find out.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nWild ambitions vs. stable growth\nSquare and PayPal's core business models are similar. Both companies charge businesses flat fees, which vary by platform and transaction type, to process payments. Both companies offer small business loans. Square's Cash App and PayPal's Venmo both enable consumers to make peer-to-peer payments, and both companies provide branded debit cards that are linked to users' online accounts.\nBut Square has been willing to take bolder risks than PayPal over the past few years. It expanded its services ecosystem with online payroll management services and analytics tools, and recently launched a full suite of online banking services. Square also added Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) purchases to its Cash App in 2018, added free stock trades to the app to challenge Robinhood in 2019, and plans to add Credit Karma's tax filing services to its ecosystem in the near future.\nPayPal only started offering cryptocurrency trades last October, and it doesn't have any near-term plans to launch stock trading tools or dedicated tax filing services, or expand into a full-blown online bank like Square. Simply put, Square seems to have wilder and grander ambitions than PayPal.\nWhich company is growing faster?\nBetween 2015 and 2020, Square grew its annual revenue at a CAGR of 49.6%. Excluding its massive gain in Bitcoin revenue last year, it would still have grown its revenue at a CAGR of 31.2% over the past five years. PayPal's annual revenue grew at a CAGR of 18.5% between 2015 and 2020. Let's take a look at Wall Street's expectations for both companies over the next two years.\n\n\n\n\nCompany\nEstimated Sales Growth (FY 2021)\nEstimated Sales Growth(FY 2022)\n\n\nSquare\n110.6%\n14.1%\n\n\nPayPal\n20.6%\n21.5%\n\n\n\nSource: Yahoo Finance, July 22.\nAnalysts expect Square's Bitcoin revenue to continue rising this year before cooling off next year. They also expect its growth in transaction-based and seller service revenue, which slowed down during the pandemic, to recover as more businesses reopen. The Cash App, which grew its monthly active users 50% to 36 million in 2020, should also keep expanding as Square adds new services.\nCathie Wood's ARK Invest expects Square's transaction-based and seller service revenues to grow at a CAGR of 19% through 2025. It also expects the Cash App's MAUs to more than double to 75 million, for Square to monetize roughly 40% of those users, and for its average revenue per Cash App user to grow from $25 in 2019 to $260 in 2025 -- which would represent a whopping CAGR of 49%.\nPayPal's growth should remain more predictable, since it doesn't generate significant revenue from cryptocurrencies yet. Instead, it will mainly rely on its growth in active accounts, which rose 21% year-over-year to 392 million last quarter, to generate stable revenue from its processing fees.\nPayPal expects to nearly double its active accounts to 750 million and more than double its annual revenue to over $50 billion by 2025. It also plans to grow its earnings at a CAGR of 22% from 2020 to 2025. It believes the rising acceptance of QR codes and NFC payments, the expansion of its financial services, and higher engagement rates for its apps will all drive that long-term growth.\nWill Square be worth more than PayPal by 2025?\nIn a best-case scenario, ARK Invest believes Square's stock could hit $500 per share by 2025 if it hits its growth targets. But unlike PayPal, Square hasn't provided any concrete targets of its own yet.\nIf Square hits $500 and its valuations hold steady, it could be worth just over $200 billion by 2025. Meanwhile, if PayPal achieves its goals of more than doubling its annual revenue and growing its EPS at a CAGR of 22% through 2025, its stock could easily double and boost its market cap to $700 billion.\nTherefore, it's doubtful that Square -- which already trades at higher valuations than PayPal -- will be the more valuable company by 2025. But that doesn't mean PayPal is necessarily a better growth stock than Square. I personally own Square instead of PayPal, because I admire its ambitious and forward-thinking strategies. Both stocks are still great long-term investments on the booming fintech market, so investors shouldn't fret too much over which company has the higher market cap.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}