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2021-04-28

I think tiger broker will collapse 1st...Cannot recah via their hotline...Feedback also no response...Online chat queue too long...Always got end chat before I get someone to assist me...😴 Don't know why incurred accrual interest? Cannot withdraw full amount? Frustrating! How to close account and withdraw all balance amount without incurring any charges?😤 Terrible!

The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?

2021-04-26

👍

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-25

😪

The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?

2021-04-23

Bad for the rich...

Biden has pledged to tax the rich -- but precisely how will he do that? Experts consider his options

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Cannot withdraw full amount? Frustrating! How to close account and withdraw all balance amount without incurring any charges?😤 Terrible!","listText":"I think tiger broker will collapse 1st...Cannot recah via their hotline...Feedback also no response...Online chat queue too long...Always got end chat before I get someone to assist me...😴 Don't know why incurred accrual interest? Cannot withdraw full amount? Frustrating! How to close account and withdraw all balance amount without incurring any charges?😤 Terrible!","text":"I think tiger broker will collapse 1st...Cannot recah via their hotline...Feedback also no response...Online chat queue too long...Always got end chat before I get someone to assist me...😴 Don't know why incurred accrual interest? Cannot withdraw full amount? Frustrating! How to close account and withdraw all balance amount without incurring any charges?😤 Terrible!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100653054","repostId":"2129631283","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2129631283","pubTimestamp":1619316710,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129631283?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 10:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129631283","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FIL","content":"<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attention</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433b3af04bcf5d012d1027716d9d9058\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1893\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Don't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p><p>Well, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.</p><p>\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"</p><p>When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.</p><p>That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.</p><p>Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.</p><p>Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&amp;P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.</p><p>I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).</p><p>And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.</p><p>And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.</p><p>Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.</p><p>The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.</p><p>Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY.AU\">$(SPY.AU)$</a> or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.</p><p>These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"</p><p>Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.</p><p>Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.</p><p>I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.</p><p>The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.</p><p>Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.</p><p>The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.</p><p>It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.</p><p>But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?</p><p>I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.</p><p>But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked out</p><p>Even if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).</p><p>Last year this trigger got you out of the S&amp;P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.</p><p>Most people will use the S&amp;P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.</p><p>Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.</p><p>And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 10:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2129631283","content_text":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF $(SPY.AU)$ or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked outEven if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).Last year this trigger got you out of the S&P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.Most people will use the S&P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":227,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375740098,"gmtCreate":1619398857114,"gmtModify":1634273823830,"author":{"id":"3581725184130382","authorId":"3581725184130382","name":"Wow_Wow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ec27e414d33f77ac370438fd74a1751","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581725184130382","authorIdStr":"3581725184130382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375740098","repostId":"1112636113","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375141963,"gmtCreate":1619318381652,"gmtModify":1634274282286,"author":{"id":"3581725184130382","authorId":"3581725184130382","name":"Wow_Wow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ec27e414d33f77ac370438fd74a1751","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581725184130382","authorIdStr":"3581725184130382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😪","listText":"😪","text":"😪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375141963","repostId":"2129631283","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2129631283","pubTimestamp":1619316710,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129631283?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 10:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129631283","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FIL","content":"<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attention</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433b3af04bcf5d012d1027716d9d9058\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1893\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Don't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p><p>Well, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.</p><p>\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"</p><p>When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.</p><p>That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.</p><p>Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.</p><p>Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&amp;P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.</p><p>I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).</p><p>And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.</p><p>And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.</p><p>Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.</p><p>The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.</p><p>Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY.AU\">$(SPY.AU)$</a> or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.</p><p>These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"</p><p>Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.</p><p>Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.</p><p>I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.</p><p>The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.</p><p>Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.</p><p>The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.</p><p>It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.</p><p>But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?</p><p>I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.</p><p>But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked out</p><p>Even if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).</p><p>Last year this trigger got you out of the S&amp;P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.</p><p>Most people will use the S&amp;P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.</p><p>Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.</p><p>And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 10:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2129631283","content_text":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF $(SPY.AU)$ or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked outEven if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).Last year this trigger got you out of the S&P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.Most people will use the S&P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":569,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":376539936,"gmtCreate":1619135907125,"gmtModify":1634288336002,"author":{"id":"3581725184130382","authorId":"3581725184130382","name":"Wow_Wow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ec27e414d33f77ac370438fd74a1751","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581725184130382","authorIdStr":"3581725184130382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bad for the rich...","listText":"Bad for the rich...","text":"Bad for the rich...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/376539936","repostId":"2129331568","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2129331568","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1619132400,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129331568?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-23 07:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Biden has pledged to tax the rich -- but precisely how will he do that? Experts consider his options","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129331568","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Biden could announce details on new taxes on the wealthy as soon as next week, observers said.If Pre","content":"<p>Biden could announce details on new taxes on the wealthy as soon as next week, observers said.</p><p>If President Joe Biden's campaign pledges to tax the rich were the coming attractions, we're about to arrive at the main event.</p><p>After unveiling a $2.3 trillion infrastructure spending proposal  . The president is expected to fund the forthcoming plan with tax increases on wealthy households.The question is precisely which tax hikes will he propose? And what can he get through a Congress where Democrats have the barest of majorities -- <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> where the president cannot afford any 'no' votes?</p><p>Biden could formally announce the plan as soon as April 28, commentators said. So far, the White House hasn't provided details. But White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki confirmed Biden would discuss the plan  at a scheduled address to Congress next week.</p><p>Some specifics are starting to seep out, including a  Bloomberg News report Thursday  saying Biden will boost the capital gains rate tax to 39.6% for households earning at least $1 million, citing people familiar with the proposal. Coupled with an added 3.8% tax linked to the Affordable Care Act, that's a potential 43.4% rate.</p><p>When asked about the report on the potential capital gains rate hike, Psaki said she did not want to comment ahead of Biden's decisions.</p><p>All the stock market benchmarks began falling on the news, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average  sliding 300 points the trading day down around 322 points, while the S&amp;P 500  fell around 38 points and the Nasdaq Composite  dropped 132 points.</p><p>As for Biden's other plans to tax the wealthy, observers said it was possible to make some educated guesses about which tax provisions are under consideration by reviewing Biden's stances during his run for president, when he said he wouldn't raise taxes on anyone making less than $400,000.</p><p><b>Reading the taxation 'tea leaves'</b></p><p>Experts also try reading the taxation \"tea leaves\" by looking at the people Biden has tapped to serve in his administration.</p><p>The rate for the top income tax bracket, new rules for estates and new tax treatment for the investment income of rich people are all likely in the mix, they say.</p><p>Some proposals could chart new terrain in the tax code, they note, while others may just quickly undo Trump-era tax rules that are set to elapse at the end of 2025. Either way, some array of increases is coming, they note.</p><p>\"At this point, taxes are not getting any lower,\" said David Kirk, a tax partner who leads Ernst &amp; Young's Private Tax Group. \"They are only going to go up from here. The question is how?\"</p><p>The answers matter a lot for the Biden administration as it presses its policy agenda. It also matters for higher-income households as they determine tax planning, investment portfolio strategy and end-of-life matters.</p><p>Data on tax minimization strategies   show wealthy taxpayers haven't been waiting.</p><p>Here's a look at some of the specific tax provisions that might be in play, and what's known and not known yet.</p><p><b>A new top tax rate</b></p><p>Candidate Biden didn't propose a wealth tax, but he did propose putting the top marginal rate at 39.6%. That's where it was before the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act lowered the rate to 37% (as well as lowering the rates on four other brackets down the income ladder).</p><p>Kirk, formerly an attorney in the Internal Revenue Service's Office of Chief Counsel, said the potential rate raise was \"relatively low hanging fruit\" for the administration.</p><p>Ed Mills, a Washington D.C. policy analyst at Raymond James, agreed the potential rate hike looked likely. \"The political sales point is, 'It's not necessarily raising those taxes, it's reverting taxes back to where they were before the Trump tax cuts,'\" he said.</p><p>One quirk is the top rate in 2021  applies to individuals making at least $523,601 a year or couples making $628,301 a year. So does Biden shuffle things so households making $400,000 now fall under the top rate instead of the second-highest 35% rate? \"Those are all political decisions\" still to come, Mills said.Tweaking the top rate could produce $100 billion in new tax revenue, according to a Tuesday note from Evercore ISI -- the  investment banking advisory firm calls the change \"likely.\"</p><p><b>Revised estate taxes</b></p><p>The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act doubled the threshold where the 40% federal estate taxes kicked in. It previously was $5.49 million per person ($10.98 million for married couple) and this year is $11.58 million per person ($23.16 million for married couples). The number is indexed for inflation. Like the marginal rates, the 2017 law lets the estate tax exemptions expire after 2025.</p><p>But Biden may want to quicken the expiration date and, Kirk noted, he's brought on people who are keenly aware of estate-tax workings.</p><p>Lily Batchelder has been nominated as assistant secretary for tax policy in the Treasury Department, he noted. (The White House formally sent her nomination to the Senate last week.)</p><p>Batchelder previously taught at New York University's School of Law, where she estimated that federal estate taxes would rake in $16 billion last year, making for an effective estate tax rate around 2% .</p><p>\"Despite our founding vision as a land of opportunity, the United States ranks at or near the bottom among high-income countries in economic equality and intergenerational mobility. Our tax code plays a key role,\" Batchelder, also an Obama administration official, wrote  last year.</p><p>If estate taxes are getting revised, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> question is where the exemption level is set and whether the rate stays at 40%.</p><p>Some estate tax changes are a \"done deal\" in the eyes of Professor Donald Williamson, executive director of American University's Kogod Tax Policy Center. \"Politically, it makes sense because average working Americans don't have estates to leave to their children,\" he said.</p><p>Approximately 4,100 estate-tax returns will be filed for people who died last year, according to projections  .</p><p>An increase in estate tax also means the \"step up in basis\" is on the chopping block, Williamson said. This tax rule says if an heir sells inherited assets, the price appreciation -- and resulting capital gains tax -- starts from the time of inheritance, not when the asset was originally acquired.</p><p>If an asset like long-held shares in a blue-chip company keeps growing in value, that's a major shield against a major capital gains tax liability.</p><p>But there can be capital gains implications when businesses are sold or inherited -- and that's setting up battle lines.</p><p>\"Eliminating step-up in basis would require small business owners to pay a new tax when a family business partner dies, and potentially force them to sell their business just to pay the tax and associated fees,\" said Courtney Titus Brooks, senior manager of federal government relations at the National Federation of Independent Business, an advocacy organization for small businesses.</p><p>Biden's forthcoming proposal \"may include\" estate tax changes, which could generate $500 billion, and changes to the step-up in basis are \"very likely,\" Evercore ISI's note added.</p><p><b>New rules and rates for capital gains</b></p><p>Right now, the capital-gains rate for the richest taxpayers starts at 20%, though the rates may go higher  depending on the assets being sold.</p><p>Candidate Biden has said he'd raise the capital gains rate to 39.6% for household making at least $1 million so that their investment income is taxed just like their ordinary income.</p><p>Income brackets and estate taxes are one thing, but changes to the capital gains rules could be a tougher effort, Kirk said. First off, he wondered, can Biden convince lawmakers to counter a century of tax law -- since the 1921 Revenue Act  -- that has taxed long-term capital gains at a lower, preferential rate?</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Biden has pledged to tax the rich -- but precisely how will he do that? Experts consider his options</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBiden has pledged to tax the rich -- but precisely how will he do that? Experts consider his options\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-23 07:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Biden could announce details on new taxes on the wealthy as soon as next week, observers said.</p><p>If President Joe Biden's campaign pledges to tax the rich were the coming attractions, we're about to arrive at the main event.</p><p>After unveiling a $2.3 trillion infrastructure spending proposal  . The president is expected to fund the forthcoming plan with tax increases on wealthy households.The question is precisely which tax hikes will he propose? And what can he get through a Congress where Democrats have the barest of majorities -- <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> where the president cannot afford any 'no' votes?</p><p>Biden could formally announce the plan as soon as April 28, commentators said. So far, the White House hasn't provided details. But White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki confirmed Biden would discuss the plan  at a scheduled address to Congress next week.</p><p>Some specifics are starting to seep out, including a  Bloomberg News report Thursday  saying Biden will boost the capital gains rate tax to 39.6% for households earning at least $1 million, citing people familiar with the proposal. Coupled with an added 3.8% tax linked to the Affordable Care Act, that's a potential 43.4% rate.</p><p>When asked about the report on the potential capital gains rate hike, Psaki said she did not want to comment ahead of Biden's decisions.</p><p>All the stock market benchmarks began falling on the news, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average  sliding 300 points the trading day down around 322 points, while the S&amp;P 500  fell around 38 points and the Nasdaq Composite  dropped 132 points.</p><p>As for Biden's other plans to tax the wealthy, observers said it was possible to make some educated guesses about which tax provisions are under consideration by reviewing Biden's stances during his run for president, when he said he wouldn't raise taxes on anyone making less than $400,000.</p><p><b>Reading the taxation 'tea leaves'</b></p><p>Experts also try reading the taxation \"tea leaves\" by looking at the people Biden has tapped to serve in his administration.</p><p>The rate for the top income tax bracket, new rules for estates and new tax treatment for the investment income of rich people are all likely in the mix, they say.</p><p>Some proposals could chart new terrain in the tax code, they note, while others may just quickly undo Trump-era tax rules that are set to elapse at the end of 2025. Either way, some array of increases is coming, they note.</p><p>\"At this point, taxes are not getting any lower,\" said David Kirk, a tax partner who leads Ernst &amp; Young's Private Tax Group. \"They are only going to go up from here. The question is how?\"</p><p>The answers matter a lot for the Biden administration as it presses its policy agenda. It also matters for higher-income households as they determine tax planning, investment portfolio strategy and end-of-life matters.</p><p>Data on tax minimization strategies   show wealthy taxpayers haven't been waiting.</p><p>Here's a look at some of the specific tax provisions that might be in play, and what's known and not known yet.</p><p><b>A new top tax rate</b></p><p>Candidate Biden didn't propose a wealth tax, but he did propose putting the top marginal rate at 39.6%. That's where it was before the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act lowered the rate to 37% (as well as lowering the rates on four other brackets down the income ladder).</p><p>Kirk, formerly an attorney in the Internal Revenue Service's Office of Chief Counsel, said the potential rate raise was \"relatively low hanging fruit\" for the administration.</p><p>Ed Mills, a Washington D.C. policy analyst at Raymond James, agreed the potential rate hike looked likely. \"The political sales point is, 'It's not necessarily raising those taxes, it's reverting taxes back to where they were before the Trump tax cuts,'\" he said.</p><p>One quirk is the top rate in 2021  applies to individuals making at least $523,601 a year or couples making $628,301 a year. So does Biden shuffle things so households making $400,000 now fall under the top rate instead of the second-highest 35% rate? \"Those are all political decisions\" still to come, Mills said.Tweaking the top rate could produce $100 billion in new tax revenue, according to a Tuesday note from Evercore ISI -- the  investment banking advisory firm calls the change \"likely.\"</p><p><b>Revised estate taxes</b></p><p>The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act doubled the threshold where the 40% federal estate taxes kicked in. It previously was $5.49 million per person ($10.98 million for married couple) and this year is $11.58 million per person ($23.16 million for married couples). The number is indexed for inflation. Like the marginal rates, the 2017 law lets the estate tax exemptions expire after 2025.</p><p>But Biden may want to quicken the expiration date and, Kirk noted, he's brought on people who are keenly aware of estate-tax workings.</p><p>Lily Batchelder has been nominated as assistant secretary for tax policy in the Treasury Department, he noted. (The White House formally sent her nomination to the Senate last week.)</p><p>Batchelder previously taught at New York University's School of Law, where she estimated that federal estate taxes would rake in $16 billion last year, making for an effective estate tax rate around 2% .</p><p>\"Despite our founding vision as a land of opportunity, the United States ranks at or near the bottom among high-income countries in economic equality and intergenerational mobility. Our tax code plays a key role,\" Batchelder, also an Obama administration official, wrote  last year.</p><p>If estate taxes are getting revised, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> question is where the exemption level is set and whether the rate stays at 40%.</p><p>Some estate tax changes are a \"done deal\" in the eyes of Professor Donald Williamson, executive director of American University's Kogod Tax Policy Center. \"Politically, it makes sense because average working Americans don't have estates to leave to their children,\" he said.</p><p>Approximately 4,100 estate-tax returns will be filed for people who died last year, according to projections  .</p><p>An increase in estate tax also means the \"step up in basis\" is on the chopping block, Williamson said. This tax rule says if an heir sells inherited assets, the price appreciation -- and resulting capital gains tax -- starts from the time of inheritance, not when the asset was originally acquired.</p><p>If an asset like long-held shares in a blue-chip company keeps growing in value, that's a major shield against a major capital gains tax liability.</p><p>But there can be capital gains implications when businesses are sold or inherited -- and that's setting up battle lines.</p><p>\"Eliminating step-up in basis would require small business owners to pay a new tax when a family business partner dies, and potentially force them to sell their business just to pay the tax and associated fees,\" said Courtney Titus Brooks, senior manager of federal government relations at the National Federation of Independent Business, an advocacy organization for small businesses.</p><p>Biden's forthcoming proposal \"may include\" estate tax changes, which could generate $500 billion, and changes to the step-up in basis are \"very likely,\" Evercore ISI's note added.</p><p><b>New rules and rates for capital gains</b></p><p>Right now, the capital-gains rate for the richest taxpayers starts at 20%, though the rates may go higher  depending on the assets being sold.</p><p>Candidate Biden has said he'd raise the capital gains rate to 39.6% for household making at least $1 million so that their investment income is taxed just like their ordinary income.</p><p>Income brackets and estate taxes are one thing, but changes to the capital gains rules could be a tougher effort, Kirk said. First off, he wondered, can Biden convince lawmakers to counter a century of tax law -- since the 1921 Revenue Act  -- that has taxed long-term capital gains at a lower, preferential rate?</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2129331568","content_text":"Biden could announce details on new taxes on the wealthy as soon as next week, observers said.If President Joe Biden's campaign pledges to tax the rich were the coming attractions, we're about to arrive at the main event.After unveiling a $2.3 trillion infrastructure spending proposal  . The president is expected to fund the forthcoming plan with tax increases on wealthy households.The question is precisely which tax hikes will he propose? And what can he get through a Congress where Democrats have the barest of majorities -- one where the president cannot afford any 'no' votes?Biden could formally announce the plan as soon as April 28, commentators said. So far, the White House hasn't provided details. But White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki confirmed Biden would discuss the plan  at a scheduled address to Congress next week.Some specifics are starting to seep out, including a  Bloomberg News report Thursday  saying Biden will boost the capital gains rate tax to 39.6% for households earning at least $1 million, citing people familiar with the proposal. Coupled with an added 3.8% tax linked to the Affordable Care Act, that's a potential 43.4% rate.When asked about the report on the potential capital gains rate hike, Psaki said she did not want to comment ahead of Biden's decisions.All the stock market benchmarks began falling on the news, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average  sliding 300 points the trading day down around 322 points, while the S&P 500  fell around 38 points and the Nasdaq Composite  dropped 132 points.As for Biden's other plans to tax the wealthy, observers said it was possible to make some educated guesses about which tax provisions are under consideration by reviewing Biden's stances during his run for president, when he said he wouldn't raise taxes on anyone making less than $400,000.Reading the taxation 'tea leaves'Experts also try reading the taxation \"tea leaves\" by looking at the people Biden has tapped to serve in his administration.The rate for the top income tax bracket, new rules for estates and new tax treatment for the investment income of rich people are all likely in the mix, they say.Some proposals could chart new terrain in the tax code, they note, while others may just quickly undo Trump-era tax rules that are set to elapse at the end of 2025. Either way, some array of increases is coming, they note.\"At this point, taxes are not getting any lower,\" said David Kirk, a tax partner who leads Ernst & Young's Private Tax Group. \"They are only going to go up from here. The question is how?\"The answers matter a lot for the Biden administration as it presses its policy agenda. It also matters for higher-income households as they determine tax planning, investment portfolio strategy and end-of-life matters.Data on tax minimization strategies   show wealthy taxpayers haven't been waiting.Here's a look at some of the specific tax provisions that might be in play, and what's known and not known yet.A new top tax rateCandidate Biden didn't propose a wealth tax, but he did propose putting the top marginal rate at 39.6%. That's where it was before the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act lowered the rate to 37% (as well as lowering the rates on four other brackets down the income ladder).Kirk, formerly an attorney in the Internal Revenue Service's Office of Chief Counsel, said the potential rate raise was \"relatively low hanging fruit\" for the administration.Ed Mills, a Washington D.C. policy analyst at Raymond James, agreed the potential rate hike looked likely. \"The political sales point is, 'It's not necessarily raising those taxes, it's reverting taxes back to where they were before the Trump tax cuts,'\" he said.One quirk is the top rate in 2021  applies to individuals making at least $523,601 a year or couples making $628,301 a year. So does Biden shuffle things so households making $400,000 now fall under the top rate instead of the second-highest 35% rate? \"Those are all political decisions\" still to come, Mills said.Tweaking the top rate could produce $100 billion in new tax revenue, according to a Tuesday note from Evercore ISI -- the  investment banking advisory firm calls the change \"likely.\"Revised estate taxesThe Tax Cuts and Jobs Act doubled the threshold where the 40% federal estate taxes kicked in. It previously was $5.49 million per person ($10.98 million for married couple) and this year is $11.58 million per person ($23.16 million for married couples). The number is indexed for inflation. Like the marginal rates, the 2017 law lets the estate tax exemptions expire after 2025.But Biden may want to quicken the expiration date and, Kirk noted, he's brought on people who are keenly aware of estate-tax workings.Lily Batchelder has been nominated as assistant secretary for tax policy in the Treasury Department, he noted. (The White House formally sent her nomination to the Senate last week.)Batchelder previously taught at New York University's School of Law, where she estimated that federal estate taxes would rake in $16 billion last year, making for an effective estate tax rate around 2% .\"Despite our founding vision as a land of opportunity, the United States ranks at or near the bottom among high-income countries in economic equality and intergenerational mobility. Our tax code plays a key role,\" Batchelder, also an Obama administration official, wrote  last year.If estate taxes are getting revised, one question is where the exemption level is set and whether the rate stays at 40%.Some estate tax changes are a \"done deal\" in the eyes of Professor Donald Williamson, executive director of American University's Kogod Tax Policy Center. \"Politically, it makes sense because average working Americans don't have estates to leave to their children,\" he said.Approximately 4,100 estate-tax returns will be filed for people who died last year, according to projections  .An increase in estate tax also means the \"step up in basis\" is on the chopping block, Williamson said. This tax rule says if an heir sells inherited assets, the price appreciation -- and resulting capital gains tax -- starts from the time of inheritance, not when the asset was originally acquired.If an asset like long-held shares in a blue-chip company keeps growing in value, that's a major shield against a major capital gains tax liability.But there can be capital gains implications when businesses are sold or inherited -- and that's setting up battle lines.\"Eliminating step-up in basis would require small business owners to pay a new tax when a family business partner dies, and potentially force them to sell their business just to pay the tax and associated fees,\" said Courtney Titus Brooks, senior manager of federal government relations at the National Federation of Independent Business, an advocacy organization for small businesses.Biden's forthcoming proposal \"may include\" estate tax changes, which could generate $500 billion, and changes to the step-up in basis are \"very likely,\" Evercore ISI's note added.New rules and rates for capital gainsRight now, the capital-gains rate for the richest taxpayers starts at 20%, though the rates may go higher  depending on the assets being sold.Candidate Biden has said he'd raise the capital gains rate to 39.6% for household making at least $1 million so that their investment income is taxed just like their ordinary income.Income brackets and estate taxes are one thing, but changes to the capital gains rules could be a tougher effort, Kirk said. First off, he wondered, can Biden convince lawmakers to counter a century of tax law -- since the 1921 Revenue Act  -- that has taxed long-term capital gains at a lower, preferential rate?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":227,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":100653054,"gmtCreate":1619611675778,"gmtModify":1634211361154,"author":{"id":"3581725184130382","authorId":"3581725184130382","name":"Wow_Wow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ec27e414d33f77ac370438fd74a1751","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581725184130382","idStr":"3581725184130382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I think tiger broker will collapse 1st...Cannot recah via their hotline...Feedback also no response...Online chat queue too long...Always got end chat before I get someone to assist me...😴 Don't know why incurred accrual interest? Cannot withdraw full amount? Frustrating! How to close account and withdraw all balance amount without incurring any charges?😤 Terrible!","listText":"I think tiger broker will collapse 1st...Cannot recah via their hotline...Feedback also no response...Online chat queue too long...Always got end chat before I get someone to assist me...😴 Don't know why incurred accrual interest? Cannot withdraw full amount? Frustrating! How to close account and withdraw all balance amount without incurring any charges?😤 Terrible!","text":"I think tiger broker will collapse 1st...Cannot recah via their hotline...Feedback also no response...Online chat queue too long...Always got end chat before I get someone to assist me...😴 Don't know why incurred accrual interest? Cannot withdraw full amount? Frustrating! How to close account and withdraw all balance amount without incurring any charges?😤 Terrible!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100653054","repostId":"2129631283","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2129631283","pubTimestamp":1619316710,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129631283?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 10:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129631283","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FIL","content":"<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attention</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433b3af04bcf5d012d1027716d9d9058\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1893\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Don't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p><p>Well, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.</p><p>\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"</p><p>When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.</p><p>That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.</p><p>Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.</p><p>Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&amp;P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.</p><p>I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).</p><p>And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.</p><p>And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.</p><p>Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.</p><p>The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.</p><p>Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY.AU\">$(SPY.AU)$</a> or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.</p><p>These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"</p><p>Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.</p><p>Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.</p><p>I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.</p><p>The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.</p><p>Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.</p><p>The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.</p><p>It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.</p><p>But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?</p><p>I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.</p><p>But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked out</p><p>Even if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).</p><p>Last year this trigger got you out of the S&amp;P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.</p><p>Most people will use the S&amp;P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.</p><p>Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.</p><p>And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 10:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2129631283","content_text":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF $(SPY.AU)$ or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked outEven if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).Last year this trigger got you out of the S&P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.Most people will use the S&P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":227,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":376539936,"gmtCreate":1619135907125,"gmtModify":1634288336002,"author":{"id":"3581725184130382","authorId":"3581725184130382","name":"Wow_Wow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ec27e414d33f77ac370438fd74a1751","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581725184130382","idStr":"3581725184130382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bad for the rich...","listText":"Bad for the rich...","text":"Bad for the rich...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/376539936","repostId":"2129331568","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2129331568","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1619132400,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129331568?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-23 07:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Biden has pledged to tax the rich -- but precisely how will he do that? Experts consider his options","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129331568","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Biden could announce details on new taxes on the wealthy as soon as next week, observers said.If Pre","content":"<p>Biden could announce details on new taxes on the wealthy as soon as next week, observers said.</p><p>If President Joe Biden's campaign pledges to tax the rich were the coming attractions, we're about to arrive at the main event.</p><p>After unveiling a $2.3 trillion infrastructure spending proposal  . The president is expected to fund the forthcoming plan with tax increases on wealthy households.The question is precisely which tax hikes will he propose? And what can he get through a Congress where Democrats have the barest of majorities -- <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> where the president cannot afford any 'no' votes?</p><p>Biden could formally announce the plan as soon as April 28, commentators said. So far, the White House hasn't provided details. But White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki confirmed Biden would discuss the plan  at a scheduled address to Congress next week.</p><p>Some specifics are starting to seep out, including a  Bloomberg News report Thursday  saying Biden will boost the capital gains rate tax to 39.6% for households earning at least $1 million, citing people familiar with the proposal. Coupled with an added 3.8% tax linked to the Affordable Care Act, that's a potential 43.4% rate.</p><p>When asked about the report on the potential capital gains rate hike, Psaki said she did not want to comment ahead of Biden's decisions.</p><p>All the stock market benchmarks began falling on the news, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average  sliding 300 points the trading day down around 322 points, while the S&amp;P 500  fell around 38 points and the Nasdaq Composite  dropped 132 points.</p><p>As for Biden's other plans to tax the wealthy, observers said it was possible to make some educated guesses about which tax provisions are under consideration by reviewing Biden's stances during his run for president, when he said he wouldn't raise taxes on anyone making less than $400,000.</p><p><b>Reading the taxation 'tea leaves'</b></p><p>Experts also try reading the taxation \"tea leaves\" by looking at the people Biden has tapped to serve in his administration.</p><p>The rate for the top income tax bracket, new rules for estates and new tax treatment for the investment income of rich people are all likely in the mix, they say.</p><p>Some proposals could chart new terrain in the tax code, they note, while others may just quickly undo Trump-era tax rules that are set to elapse at the end of 2025. Either way, some array of increases is coming, they note.</p><p>\"At this point, taxes are not getting any lower,\" said David Kirk, a tax partner who leads Ernst &amp; Young's Private Tax Group. \"They are only going to go up from here. The question is how?\"</p><p>The answers matter a lot for the Biden administration as it presses its policy agenda. It also matters for higher-income households as they determine tax planning, investment portfolio strategy and end-of-life matters.</p><p>Data on tax minimization strategies   show wealthy taxpayers haven't been waiting.</p><p>Here's a look at some of the specific tax provisions that might be in play, and what's known and not known yet.</p><p><b>A new top tax rate</b></p><p>Candidate Biden didn't propose a wealth tax, but he did propose putting the top marginal rate at 39.6%. That's where it was before the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act lowered the rate to 37% (as well as lowering the rates on four other brackets down the income ladder).</p><p>Kirk, formerly an attorney in the Internal Revenue Service's Office of Chief Counsel, said the potential rate raise was \"relatively low hanging fruit\" for the administration.</p><p>Ed Mills, a Washington D.C. policy analyst at Raymond James, agreed the potential rate hike looked likely. \"The political sales point is, 'It's not necessarily raising those taxes, it's reverting taxes back to where they were before the Trump tax cuts,'\" he said.</p><p>One quirk is the top rate in 2021  applies to individuals making at least $523,601 a year or couples making $628,301 a year. So does Biden shuffle things so households making $400,000 now fall under the top rate instead of the second-highest 35% rate? \"Those are all political decisions\" still to come, Mills said.Tweaking the top rate could produce $100 billion in new tax revenue, according to a Tuesday note from Evercore ISI -- the  investment banking advisory firm calls the change \"likely.\"</p><p><b>Revised estate taxes</b></p><p>The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act doubled the threshold where the 40% federal estate taxes kicked in. It previously was $5.49 million per person ($10.98 million for married couple) and this year is $11.58 million per person ($23.16 million for married couples). The number is indexed for inflation. Like the marginal rates, the 2017 law lets the estate tax exemptions expire after 2025.</p><p>But Biden may want to quicken the expiration date and, Kirk noted, he's brought on people who are keenly aware of estate-tax workings.</p><p>Lily Batchelder has been nominated as assistant secretary for tax policy in the Treasury Department, he noted. (The White House formally sent her nomination to the Senate last week.)</p><p>Batchelder previously taught at New York University's School of Law, where she estimated that federal estate taxes would rake in $16 billion last year, making for an effective estate tax rate around 2% .</p><p>\"Despite our founding vision as a land of opportunity, the United States ranks at or near the bottom among high-income countries in economic equality and intergenerational mobility. Our tax code plays a key role,\" Batchelder, also an Obama administration official, wrote  last year.</p><p>If estate taxes are getting revised, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> question is where the exemption level is set and whether the rate stays at 40%.</p><p>Some estate tax changes are a \"done deal\" in the eyes of Professor Donald Williamson, executive director of American University's Kogod Tax Policy Center. \"Politically, it makes sense because average working Americans don't have estates to leave to their children,\" he said.</p><p>Approximately 4,100 estate-tax returns will be filed for people who died last year, according to projections  .</p><p>An increase in estate tax also means the \"step up in basis\" is on the chopping block, Williamson said. This tax rule says if an heir sells inherited assets, the price appreciation -- and resulting capital gains tax -- starts from the time of inheritance, not when the asset was originally acquired.</p><p>If an asset like long-held shares in a blue-chip company keeps growing in value, that's a major shield against a major capital gains tax liability.</p><p>But there can be capital gains implications when businesses are sold or inherited -- and that's setting up battle lines.</p><p>\"Eliminating step-up in basis would require small business owners to pay a new tax when a family business partner dies, and potentially force them to sell their business just to pay the tax and associated fees,\" said Courtney Titus Brooks, senior manager of federal government relations at the National Federation of Independent Business, an advocacy organization for small businesses.</p><p>Biden's forthcoming proposal \"may include\" estate tax changes, which could generate $500 billion, and changes to the step-up in basis are \"very likely,\" Evercore ISI's note added.</p><p><b>New rules and rates for capital gains</b></p><p>Right now, the capital-gains rate for the richest taxpayers starts at 20%, though the rates may go higher  depending on the assets being sold.</p><p>Candidate Biden has said he'd raise the capital gains rate to 39.6% for household making at least $1 million so that their investment income is taxed just like their ordinary income.</p><p>Income brackets and estate taxes are one thing, but changes to the capital gains rules could be a tougher effort, Kirk said. First off, he wondered, can Biden convince lawmakers to counter a century of tax law -- since the 1921 Revenue Act  -- that has taxed long-term capital gains at a lower, preferential rate?</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Biden has pledged to tax the rich -- but precisely how will he do that? Experts consider his options</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBiden has pledged to tax the rich -- but precisely how will he do that? Experts consider his options\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-23 07:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Biden could announce details on new taxes on the wealthy as soon as next week, observers said.</p><p>If President Joe Biden's campaign pledges to tax the rich were the coming attractions, we're about to arrive at the main event.</p><p>After unveiling a $2.3 trillion infrastructure spending proposal  . The president is expected to fund the forthcoming plan with tax increases on wealthy households.The question is precisely which tax hikes will he propose? And what can he get through a Congress where Democrats have the barest of majorities -- <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> where the president cannot afford any 'no' votes?</p><p>Biden could formally announce the plan as soon as April 28, commentators said. So far, the White House hasn't provided details. But White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki confirmed Biden would discuss the plan  at a scheduled address to Congress next week.</p><p>Some specifics are starting to seep out, including a  Bloomberg News report Thursday  saying Biden will boost the capital gains rate tax to 39.6% for households earning at least $1 million, citing people familiar with the proposal. Coupled with an added 3.8% tax linked to the Affordable Care Act, that's a potential 43.4% rate.</p><p>When asked about the report on the potential capital gains rate hike, Psaki said she did not want to comment ahead of Biden's decisions.</p><p>All the stock market benchmarks began falling on the news, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average  sliding 300 points the trading day down around 322 points, while the S&amp;P 500  fell around 38 points and the Nasdaq Composite  dropped 132 points.</p><p>As for Biden's other plans to tax the wealthy, observers said it was possible to make some educated guesses about which tax provisions are under consideration by reviewing Biden's stances during his run for president, when he said he wouldn't raise taxes on anyone making less than $400,000.</p><p><b>Reading the taxation 'tea leaves'</b></p><p>Experts also try reading the taxation \"tea leaves\" by looking at the people Biden has tapped to serve in his administration.</p><p>The rate for the top income tax bracket, new rules for estates and new tax treatment for the investment income of rich people are all likely in the mix, they say.</p><p>Some proposals could chart new terrain in the tax code, they note, while others may just quickly undo Trump-era tax rules that are set to elapse at the end of 2025. Either way, some array of increases is coming, they note.</p><p>\"At this point, taxes are not getting any lower,\" said David Kirk, a tax partner who leads Ernst &amp; Young's Private Tax Group. \"They are only going to go up from here. The question is how?\"</p><p>The answers matter a lot for the Biden administration as it presses its policy agenda. It also matters for higher-income households as they determine tax planning, investment portfolio strategy and end-of-life matters.</p><p>Data on tax minimization strategies   show wealthy taxpayers haven't been waiting.</p><p>Here's a look at some of the specific tax provisions that might be in play, and what's known and not known yet.</p><p><b>A new top tax rate</b></p><p>Candidate Biden didn't propose a wealth tax, but he did propose putting the top marginal rate at 39.6%. That's where it was before the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act lowered the rate to 37% (as well as lowering the rates on four other brackets down the income ladder).</p><p>Kirk, formerly an attorney in the Internal Revenue Service's Office of Chief Counsel, said the potential rate raise was \"relatively low hanging fruit\" for the administration.</p><p>Ed Mills, a Washington D.C. policy analyst at Raymond James, agreed the potential rate hike looked likely. \"The political sales point is, 'It's not necessarily raising those taxes, it's reverting taxes back to where they were before the Trump tax cuts,'\" he said.</p><p>One quirk is the top rate in 2021  applies to individuals making at least $523,601 a year or couples making $628,301 a year. So does Biden shuffle things so households making $400,000 now fall under the top rate instead of the second-highest 35% rate? \"Those are all political decisions\" still to come, Mills said.Tweaking the top rate could produce $100 billion in new tax revenue, according to a Tuesday note from Evercore ISI -- the  investment banking advisory firm calls the change \"likely.\"</p><p><b>Revised estate taxes</b></p><p>The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act doubled the threshold where the 40% federal estate taxes kicked in. It previously was $5.49 million per person ($10.98 million for married couple) and this year is $11.58 million per person ($23.16 million for married couples). The number is indexed for inflation. Like the marginal rates, the 2017 law lets the estate tax exemptions expire after 2025.</p><p>But Biden may want to quicken the expiration date and, Kirk noted, he's brought on people who are keenly aware of estate-tax workings.</p><p>Lily Batchelder has been nominated as assistant secretary for tax policy in the Treasury Department, he noted. (The White House formally sent her nomination to the Senate last week.)</p><p>Batchelder previously taught at New York University's School of Law, where she estimated that federal estate taxes would rake in $16 billion last year, making for an effective estate tax rate around 2% .</p><p>\"Despite our founding vision as a land of opportunity, the United States ranks at or near the bottom among high-income countries in economic equality and intergenerational mobility. Our tax code plays a key role,\" Batchelder, also an Obama administration official, wrote  last year.</p><p>If estate taxes are getting revised, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> question is where the exemption level is set and whether the rate stays at 40%.</p><p>Some estate tax changes are a \"done deal\" in the eyes of Professor Donald Williamson, executive director of American University's Kogod Tax Policy Center. \"Politically, it makes sense because average working Americans don't have estates to leave to their children,\" he said.</p><p>Approximately 4,100 estate-tax returns will be filed for people who died last year, according to projections  .</p><p>An increase in estate tax also means the \"step up in basis\" is on the chopping block, Williamson said. This tax rule says if an heir sells inherited assets, the price appreciation -- and resulting capital gains tax -- starts from the time of inheritance, not when the asset was originally acquired.</p><p>If an asset like long-held shares in a blue-chip company keeps growing in value, that's a major shield against a major capital gains tax liability.</p><p>But there can be capital gains implications when businesses are sold or inherited -- and that's setting up battle lines.</p><p>\"Eliminating step-up in basis would require small business owners to pay a new tax when a family business partner dies, and potentially force them to sell their business just to pay the tax and associated fees,\" said Courtney Titus Brooks, senior manager of federal government relations at the National Federation of Independent Business, an advocacy organization for small businesses.</p><p>Biden's forthcoming proposal \"may include\" estate tax changes, which could generate $500 billion, and changes to the step-up in basis are \"very likely,\" Evercore ISI's note added.</p><p><b>New rules and rates for capital gains</b></p><p>Right now, the capital-gains rate for the richest taxpayers starts at 20%, though the rates may go higher  depending on the assets being sold.</p><p>Candidate Biden has said he'd raise the capital gains rate to 39.6% for household making at least $1 million so that their investment income is taxed just like their ordinary income.</p><p>Income brackets and estate taxes are one thing, but changes to the capital gains rules could be a tougher effort, Kirk said. First off, he wondered, can Biden convince lawmakers to counter a century of tax law -- since the 1921 Revenue Act  -- that has taxed long-term capital gains at a lower, preferential rate?</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2129331568","content_text":"Biden could announce details on new taxes on the wealthy as soon as next week, observers said.If President Joe Biden's campaign pledges to tax the rich were the coming attractions, we're about to arrive at the main event.After unveiling a $2.3 trillion infrastructure spending proposal  . The president is expected to fund the forthcoming plan with tax increases on wealthy households.The question is precisely which tax hikes will he propose? And what can he get through a Congress where Democrats have the barest of majorities -- one where the president cannot afford any 'no' votes?Biden could formally announce the plan as soon as April 28, commentators said. So far, the White House hasn't provided details. But White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki confirmed Biden would discuss the plan  at a scheduled address to Congress next week.Some specifics are starting to seep out, including a  Bloomberg News report Thursday  saying Biden will boost the capital gains rate tax to 39.6% for households earning at least $1 million, citing people familiar with the proposal. Coupled with an added 3.8% tax linked to the Affordable Care Act, that's a potential 43.4% rate.When asked about the report on the potential capital gains rate hike, Psaki said she did not want to comment ahead of Biden's decisions.All the stock market benchmarks began falling on the news, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average  sliding 300 points the trading day down around 322 points, while the S&P 500  fell around 38 points and the Nasdaq Composite  dropped 132 points.As for Biden's other plans to tax the wealthy, observers said it was possible to make some educated guesses about which tax provisions are under consideration by reviewing Biden's stances during his run for president, when he said he wouldn't raise taxes on anyone making less than $400,000.Reading the taxation 'tea leaves'Experts also try reading the taxation \"tea leaves\" by looking at the people Biden has tapped to serve in his administration.The rate for the top income tax bracket, new rules for estates and new tax treatment for the investment income of rich people are all likely in the mix, they say.Some proposals could chart new terrain in the tax code, they note, while others may just quickly undo Trump-era tax rules that are set to elapse at the end of 2025. Either way, some array of increases is coming, they note.\"At this point, taxes are not getting any lower,\" said David Kirk, a tax partner who leads Ernst & Young's Private Tax Group. \"They are only going to go up from here. The question is how?\"The answers matter a lot for the Biden administration as it presses its policy agenda. It also matters for higher-income households as they determine tax planning, investment portfolio strategy and end-of-life matters.Data on tax minimization strategies   show wealthy taxpayers haven't been waiting.Here's a look at some of the specific tax provisions that might be in play, and what's known and not known yet.A new top tax rateCandidate Biden didn't propose a wealth tax, but he did propose putting the top marginal rate at 39.6%. That's where it was before the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act lowered the rate to 37% (as well as lowering the rates on four other brackets down the income ladder).Kirk, formerly an attorney in the Internal Revenue Service's Office of Chief Counsel, said the potential rate raise was \"relatively low hanging fruit\" for the administration.Ed Mills, a Washington D.C. policy analyst at Raymond James, agreed the potential rate hike looked likely. \"The political sales point is, 'It's not necessarily raising those taxes, it's reverting taxes back to where they were before the Trump tax cuts,'\" he said.One quirk is the top rate in 2021  applies to individuals making at least $523,601 a year or couples making $628,301 a year. So does Biden shuffle things so households making $400,000 now fall under the top rate instead of the second-highest 35% rate? \"Those are all political decisions\" still to come, Mills said.Tweaking the top rate could produce $100 billion in new tax revenue, according to a Tuesday note from Evercore ISI -- the  investment banking advisory firm calls the change \"likely.\"Revised estate taxesThe Tax Cuts and Jobs Act doubled the threshold where the 40% federal estate taxes kicked in. It previously was $5.49 million per person ($10.98 million for married couple) and this year is $11.58 million per person ($23.16 million for married couples). The number is indexed for inflation. Like the marginal rates, the 2017 law lets the estate tax exemptions expire after 2025.But Biden may want to quicken the expiration date and, Kirk noted, he's brought on people who are keenly aware of estate-tax workings.Lily Batchelder has been nominated as assistant secretary for tax policy in the Treasury Department, he noted. (The White House formally sent her nomination to the Senate last week.)Batchelder previously taught at New York University's School of Law, where she estimated that federal estate taxes would rake in $16 billion last year, making for an effective estate tax rate around 2% .\"Despite our founding vision as a land of opportunity, the United States ranks at or near the bottom among high-income countries in economic equality and intergenerational mobility. Our tax code plays a key role,\" Batchelder, also an Obama administration official, wrote  last year.If estate taxes are getting revised, one question is where the exemption level is set and whether the rate stays at 40%.Some estate tax changes are a \"done deal\" in the eyes of Professor Donald Williamson, executive director of American University's Kogod Tax Policy Center. \"Politically, it makes sense because average working Americans don't have estates to leave to their children,\" he said.Approximately 4,100 estate-tax returns will be filed for people who died last year, according to projections  .An increase in estate tax also means the \"step up in basis\" is on the chopping block, Williamson said. This tax rule says if an heir sells inherited assets, the price appreciation -- and resulting capital gains tax -- starts from the time of inheritance, not when the asset was originally acquired.If an asset like long-held shares in a blue-chip company keeps growing in value, that's a major shield against a major capital gains tax liability.But there can be capital gains implications when businesses are sold or inherited -- and that's setting up battle lines.\"Eliminating step-up in basis would require small business owners to pay a new tax when a family business partner dies, and potentially force them to sell their business just to pay the tax and associated fees,\" said Courtney Titus Brooks, senior manager of federal government relations at the National Federation of Independent Business, an advocacy organization for small businesses.Biden's forthcoming proposal \"may include\" estate tax changes, which could generate $500 billion, and changes to the step-up in basis are \"very likely,\" Evercore ISI's note added.New rules and rates for capital gainsRight now, the capital-gains rate for the richest taxpayers starts at 20%, though the rates may go higher  depending on the assets being sold.Candidate Biden has said he'd raise the capital gains rate to 39.6% for household making at least $1 million so that their investment income is taxed just like their ordinary income.Income brackets and estate taxes are one thing, but changes to the capital gains rules could be a tougher effort, Kirk said. First off, he wondered, can Biden convince lawmakers to counter a century of tax law -- since the 1921 Revenue Act  -- that has taxed long-term capital gains at a lower, preferential rate?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":227,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375740098,"gmtCreate":1619398857114,"gmtModify":1634273823830,"author":{"id":"3581725184130382","authorId":"3581725184130382","name":"Wow_Wow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ec27e414d33f77ac370438fd74a1751","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581725184130382","idStr":"3581725184130382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375740098","repostId":"1112636113","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375141963,"gmtCreate":1619318381652,"gmtModify":1634274282286,"author":{"id":"3581725184130382","authorId":"3581725184130382","name":"Wow_Wow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ec27e414d33f77ac370438fd74a1751","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581725184130382","idStr":"3581725184130382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😪","listText":"😪","text":"😪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375141963","repostId":"2129631283","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2129631283","pubTimestamp":1619316710,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129631283?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 10:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129631283","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FIL","content":"<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attention</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433b3af04bcf5d012d1027716d9d9058\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1893\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Don't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p><p>Well, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.</p><p>\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"</p><p>When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.</p><p>That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.</p><p>Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.</p><p>Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&amp;P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.</p><p>I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).</p><p>And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.</p><p>And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.</p><p>Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.</p><p>The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.</p><p>Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY.AU\">$(SPY.AU)$</a> or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.</p><p>These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"</p><p>Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.</p><p>Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.</p><p>I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.</p><p>The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.</p><p>Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.</p><p>The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.</p><p>It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.</p><p>But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?</p><p>I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.</p><p>But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked out</p><p>Even if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).</p><p>Last year this trigger got you out of the S&amp;P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.</p><p>Most people will use the S&amp;P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.</p><p>Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.</p><p>And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market will collapse ‘by the end of June’? Really?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 10:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/really-the-market-will-collapse-by-end-of-june-11619199491","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2129631283","content_text":"These forecasts always generate a lot of attentionDon't forget the cat, Ripley! 20TH CENTURY FOX FILM CORP./COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTIONWell, the 401(k) \"Death Watch,\" is under way.\"A huge collapse is coming,\" warns longtime market prognosticator Harry Dent. He adds, \"This thing will be hell,\" it could be \"the biggest crash ever,\" and the start of \"the next big economic downturn.\"When? By the end of June, if not sooner, it seems.That's less than 10 weeks away. Oh well.Dent's forecast seems to have struck some kind of chord: For about a week or longer the article was the most popular article at ThinkAdvisor.com. But although he may be unique in setting a deadline, he's not the only guru predicting disaster.Just this week I got a note from Jonathan Ruffer, an eminent money manager in London, with this dire warning: \"I take it pretty much for granted that the 40 year bull market is ending, and that it will be replaced by hard investment times.\" And Jeremy Grantham (also born in England, but long based here) recently concluded the S&P 500 could end up losing us all money over the next 20 years even before you deduct inflation, and suspects a quick 25-30% market slump may be ahead.I have a guilty secret. I'm a sucker for these warnings (OK, maybe not for Dent's). They often make for compelling reading. The most bearish stock market forecasters are generally more intelligent, more freethinking, and more interesting than the average Wall Street salesman. They usually write much better, too. Hussman's math and logic are almost unarguable. Why, asked John Wesley, does the devil have the best tunes? (I am not comparing these people to a religious devil, of course, only to the Wall Street equivalent: Sinners who may interfere with the business).And their arguments make plenty of sense. Maybe not those predicting a market collapse in time for Wimbledon, but those warning us of grim years ahead. The U.S. stock market is almost 90% above the level -- all sorts of measures are telling us some version of Alien's \"Danger! The emergency destruct system is now activated! The ship will detonate in T minutes 10 minutes.\" Run, don't walk, to the escape pod. Don't forget the cat.And most of the most bullish forecasts we hear from Wall Street involve the simple fallacy of double-counting: The more stocks rise the better their \"historic returns,\" which a salesman then cheerfully extrapolates into the future.Ergo, the more expensive stocks are, the more attractive they are.The bears have had plenty of logic and math on their side. But most of them have been predicting various reruns of the Great Depression for most of the past 20 years. Not just in 2000 and 2007, which were good times to get out of stocks, but also the rest of the time, which weren't.Over the past 20 years, a simple U.S. stock market index fund such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF $(SPY.AU)$ or Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has quintupled your money.These forecasts are always guaranteed to generate a lot of attention. More important, fears of a market crash have kept vast numbers of ordinary people out of stocks completely. In my day to day conversations I'm struck by how many otherwise sensible people think, not simply that the stock market is risky, but that you can, and possibly will, \"lose everything.\"Why is this? And why do I (and many others) find myself peeking at the latest iceberg warning? It's hard wired into us, psychologist Sarah Newcomb tells me. Warnings trigger our body's stress, flight-or-fight responses, she says. \"The story that there may be a market boom may move us slightly, but the story that they may be a market crash moves us more,\" she says.Newcomb, who has a Ph.D. in behavioral economics, is the director of behavioral science at financial research company Morningstar.I guess it goes back to all those eons when our ancestors were roaming the savannas of Africa. At the first sign any sign of danger they learned to run first and ask questions later.The early humans who treated every rustle in the grass as a lion lived to pass on their genes.Those who didn't... well, they ended up lunch for a big cat.The 'prospect theory' guys, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky , also found that we feel more pain from a dollar we lose than we feel joy from a dollar we gain. So we're more attuned to any story telling us there might be about to lose money than to any story telling us we're more likely to gain.It's not that the bull market salesmen are clearly right. Actually, math and cold hard logic should give anyone cause for concern, especially about the most euphoric U.S. stocks.But even if these skeptics turn out to be right, when is it going to happen? Will the market go up another 10% or 20% or 50% before it turns? Will it happen in June this year--or June in 2025?I always figure that the day I finally decide to tune these guys out altogether will be the moment the Titanic hits the iceberg.But there are options instead of trying to guess on Boom and Doom. We can just let the market decide for us instead. Money manager Meb Faber worked outEven if you didn't end up making more money in the long-term than a buy-and-hold investor, he found, you made pretty much the same amount... and with far less \"volatility\" (and sleepless nights).Last year this trigger got you out of the S&P 500 on March 2, just before the main implosion. The market rose above the 200-day moving average again, triggering it was time to get back in, on June 1.Most people will use the S&P 500 index as their trigger, but Faber found it worked for other assets such as REITs as well. Global investors may prefer the MSCI All-Country World Index.Is this system guaranteed to work? Of course not. But nor is anything else. That includes all those bullish predictions that stocks will earn you inflation plus 6% a year. And those bearish predictions that once the market reaches a certain valuation triggers it's heading for disaster. All rules are rely on some assumption that the future will resemble the past.And using this rule means you can safely and happily ignore all the people predicting the end of the world.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":569,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}