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晓辰子
08-01
有的同比有的环比?
新能源车企7月交付量纵览:小米破万,理想同比大增49%
晓辰子
06-07
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18:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"新能源车企7月交付量纵览:小米破万,理想同比大增49%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167567745","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月小米SU7交付量超10,000台。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>理想汽车:7月交付量51,000辆,同比增长49%。</p><p>小鹏汽车:7月共交付新车11,145台,同比增长1%,环比增长4%。</p><p>蔚来汽车:7月交付量为20,498辆,环比下降3.4%。</p><p>赛力斯:7月新能源汽车销量42,176辆,同比增长508.25%。</p><p>哪吒汽车:7月全系整体交付11,015辆,环比增长7.9%。</p><p>极氪汽车:7月交付15,655台,同比增长30%。</p><p>长城汽车:7月新能源车销售24,145台。</p><p>小米汽车:7月小米SU7交付量超10,000台,8月交付量将持续破万,预计11月提前完成全年10万台交付目标。</p><p>北汽蓝谷:子公司北京新能源汽车股份有限公司7月销量10,981辆,本年累计销量38,992辆,累计同比增长1.15%。</p><p>截至发稿,理想汽车盘前涨2.58%,极氪涨1.24%,蔚来涨0.23%,小鹏汽车涨0.11%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88d3d53782eb52c78e2d16f12b8a2099\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"129\"/></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e2493562fc68d2379102b45c2b0ac3d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"450\" 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8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n新能源车企7月交付量纵览:小米破万,理想同比大增49%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-08-01 18:52</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>理想汽车:7月交付量51,000辆,同比增长49%。</p><p>小鹏汽车:7月共交付新车11,145台,同比增长1%,环比增长4%。</p><p>蔚来汽车:7月交付量为20,498辆,环比下降3.4%。</p><p>赛力斯:7月新能源汽车销量42,176辆,同比增长508.25%。</p><p>哪吒汽车:7月全系整体交付11,015辆,环比增长7.9%。</p><p>极氪汽车:7月交付15,655台,同比增长30%。</p><p>长城汽车:7月新能源车销售24,145台。</p><p>小米汽车:7月小米SU7交付量超10,000台,8月交付量将持续破万,预计11月提前完成全年10万台交付目标。</p><p>北汽蓝谷:子公司北京新能源汽车股份有限公司7月销量10,981辆,本年累计销量38,992辆,累计同比增长1.15%。</p><p>截至发稿,理想汽车盘前涨2.58%,极氪涨1.24%,蔚来涨0.23%,小鹏汽车涨0.11%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88d3d53782eb52c78e2d16f12b8a2099\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"129\"/></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e2493562fc68d2379102b45c2b0ac3d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"132\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a530a2a17bc301499c9e286759c5657e","relate_stocks":{"ZK":"极氪","NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","LI":"理想汽车"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167567745","content_text":"理想汽车:7月交付量51,000辆,同比增长49%。小鹏汽车:7月共交付新车11,145台,同比增长1%,环比增长4%。蔚来汽车:7月交付量为20,498辆,环比下降3.4%。赛力斯:7月新能源汽车销量42,176辆,同比增长508.25%。哪吒汽车:7月全系整体交付11,015辆,环比增长7.9%。极氪汽车:7月交付15,655台,同比增长30%。长城汽车:7月新能源车销售24,145台。小米汽车:7月小米SU7交付量超10,000台,8月交付量将持续破万,预计11月提前完成全年10万台交付目标。北汽蓝谷:子公司北京新能源汽车股份有限公司7月销量10,981辆,本年累计销量38,992辆,累计同比增长1.15%。截至发稿,理想汽车盘前涨2.58%,极氪涨1.24%,蔚来涨0.23%,小鹏汽车涨0.11%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":314297391558840,"gmtCreate":1717763592199,"gmtModify":1717766451974,"author":{"id":"3581679389590759","authorId":"3581679389590759","name":"晓辰子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581679389590759","authorIdStr":"3581679389590759"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"还降息?","listText":"还降息?","text":"还降息?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314297391558840","repostId":"1117411896","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":333732445274424,"gmtCreate":1722510760974,"gmtModify":1722511387288,"author":{"id":"3581679389590759","authorId":"3581679389590759","name":"晓辰子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581679389590759","authorIdStr":"3581679389590759"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"有的同比有的环比?","listText":"有的同比有的环比?","text":"有的同比有的环比?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333732445274424","repostId":"1167567745","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1167567745","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1722509554,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167567745?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-01 18:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"新能源车企7月交付量纵览:小米破万,理想同比大增49%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167567745","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月小米SU7交付量超10,000台。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>理想汽车:7月交付量51,000辆,同比增长49%。</p><p>小鹏汽车:7月共交付新车11,145台,同比增长1%,环比增长4%。</p><p>蔚来汽车:7月交付量为20,498辆,环比下降3.4%。</p><p>赛力斯:7月新能源汽车销量42,176辆,同比增长508.25%。</p><p>哪吒汽车:7月全系整体交付11,015辆,环比增长7.9%。</p><p>极氪汽车:7月交付15,655台,同比增长30%。</p><p>长城汽车:7月新能源车销售24,145台。</p><p>小米汽车:7月小米SU7交付量超10,000台,8月交付量将持续破万,预计11月提前完成全年10万台交付目标。</p><p>北汽蓝谷:子公司北京新能源汽车股份有限公司7月销量10,981辆,本年累计销量38,992辆,累计同比增长1.15%。</p><p>截至发稿,理想汽车盘前涨2.58%,极氪涨1.24%,蔚来涨0.23%,小鹏汽车涨0.11%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88d3d53782eb52c78e2d16f12b8a2099\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"129\"/></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e2493562fc68d2379102b45c2b0ac3d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"132\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>新能源车企7月交付量纵览:小米破万,理想同比大增49%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; 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8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n新能源车企7月交付量纵览:小米破万,理想同比大增49%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-08-01 18:52</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>理想汽车:7月交付量51,000辆,同比增长49%。</p><p>小鹏汽车:7月共交付新车11,145台,同比增长1%,环比增长4%。</p><p>蔚来汽车:7月交付量为20,498辆,环比下降3.4%。</p><p>赛力斯:7月新能源汽车销量42,176辆,同比增长508.25%。</p><p>哪吒汽车:7月全系整体交付11,015辆,环比增长7.9%。</p><p>极氪汽车:7月交付15,655台,同比增长30%。</p><p>长城汽车:7月新能源车销售24,145台。</p><p>小米汽车:7月小米SU7交付量超10,000台,8月交付量将持续破万,预计11月提前完成全年10万台交付目标。</p><p>北汽蓝谷:子公司北京新能源汽车股份有限公司7月销量10,981辆,本年累计销量38,992辆,累计同比增长1.15%。</p><p>截至发稿,理想汽车盘前涨2.58%,极氪涨1.24%,蔚来涨0.23%,小鹏汽车涨0.11%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88d3d53782eb52c78e2d16f12b8a2099\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"129\"/></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e2493562fc68d2379102b45c2b0ac3d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"132\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a530a2a17bc301499c9e286759c5657e","relate_stocks":{"ZK":"极氪","NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","LI":"理想汽车"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167567745","content_text":"理想汽车:7月交付量51,000辆,同比增长49%。小鹏汽车:7月共交付新车11,145台,同比增长1%,环比增长4%。蔚来汽车:7月交付量为20,498辆,环比下降3.4%。赛力斯:7月新能源汽车销量42,176辆,同比增长508.25%。哪吒汽车:7月全系整体交付11,015辆,环比增长7.9%。极氪汽车:7月交付15,655台,同比增长30%。长城汽车:7月新能源车销售24,145台。小米汽车:7月小米SU7交付量超10,000台,8月交付量将持续破万,预计11月提前完成全年10万台交付目标。北汽蓝谷:子公司北京新能源汽车股份有限公司7月销量10,981辆,本年累计销量38,992辆,累计同比增长1.15%。截至发稿,理想汽车盘前涨2.58%,极氪涨1.24%,蔚来涨0.23%,小鹏汽车涨0.11%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":314297391558840,"gmtCreate":1717763592199,"gmtModify":1717766451974,"author":{"id":"3581679389590759","authorId":"3581679389590759","name":"晓辰子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581679389590759","authorIdStr":"3581679389590759"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"还降息?","listText":"还降息?","text":"还降息?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314297391558840","repostId":"1117411896","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1117411896","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1717763450,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117411896?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-07 20:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国5月非农新增就业27.2万,超过华尔街所有预期,失业率升至两年新高,时薪加速上涨","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117411896","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"6月7日,美国5月非农就业人数增加27.2万人,预估为增加18万人,前值为增加17.5万人。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p><strong>有分析认为,失业率上升是劳动力市场疲软的更有力证据,如果失业率继续恶化,美联储在9月份降息的可能性将大大增加。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国5月非农新增就业和工资数据全面超预期,劳动力市场高烧不退,美联储年内降息的预期被狠狠打压。但与此同时,失业率升至两年新高,预示着经济增长乏力,这使降息的前景变得更加复杂。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">6月7日晚间,美国劳工统计局公布数据显示,美国5月非农就业人口增长27.2万人,高于媒体此前调查的所有分析师的预期(12万-25.8万人),大幅高于共识预期的18万人,同时较前值17.5万人(下修为16.5万人)大幅反弹。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8c15baa2f261ec8eece1244d36b8ec2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">平均时薪同比增速为4.1%,高于预期和前值的3.9%,环比增速从上月的0.2%反弹至0.4%,预期为0.3%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/673b2870a7838418531501b7bfc8357a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">失业率为4%,较前值和预期上升0.1个百分点,<strong>为两年多来首次升至该水平。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a46f307105770eea4e8b1fee7c18c81\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时,劳动参与率也降至去年年初以来的最低点62.5%,反映出更多人选择退出劳动力大军。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ae352408651563f6f91b3023b4063fb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2117603083\" style=\"text-align: start;\">降息预期再被泼冷水,年内能降息几次?</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">数据公布后,美股三大股指期货直线跳水,美国国债收益率走高,10年期国债收益率走高逾10bp。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">交易员下调了对今年最后三次会议美联储降息的押注。本周早些时候,他们还预计年底前可能有两次、每次25个基点的降息行动,但在非农报告发布后,已下调到仅一次。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时,交易员下调对欧洲央行降息的押注,预计年底前降息29个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过,有分析认为,<strong>失业率上升是劳动力市场疲软的更有力证据</strong>,如果失业率继续恶化,美联储在9月份降息的可能性将大大增加。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利坚持认为,美联储将在从9月开始降息三次,<strong>“我们认为,美联储将把失业率上升视为经济进一步放缓的迹象”。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3183484485\" style=\"text-align: start;\">新增就业和失业率同时上升,5月非农存在多少水分?</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">新增就业大超预期,为何失业率不降反升?尽管企业调查显示就业市场异常火热,但衡量失业率更为准确的家庭调查报告称,<strong>5月美国劳动人口数量大幅下降了40.8万人!</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce905cb3b1376d5c969ed9e3bca81b71\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这意味着,一直呈上升趋势的企业调查与停滞不前的家庭调查数据之间的差距,已经创下了历史新高!<strong>家庭调查的就业人数目前已回落到去年夏天的水平。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcf002926dccf94c22f38a240137584d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">那么问题来了,这次的27.2万新增就业人数中,存在多少水分?</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有人发现,根据美国劳工统计局的数据,其中有23.1万个就业岗位来自“出生/死亡调整”(Birth/Death adjustment)模型,也就是根据新企业成立的估算值。这部分工作岗位实际上并没有被统计,而是被假定存在并直接计入电子表格中。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e91a1dffc867c1ff9d7fb6a52d395e98\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">也就是说,<strong>这23.1万个就业人数只是统计局基于模型假设“凭空创造”出来的,用以调整就业总人数。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">知名分析师Anna Wong也指出,5月份非农报告释放出了劳动力市场的矛盾信号。虽然就业人数强劲增长,但失业率却上升到了4%。她认为,失业率数据目前更能反映就业市场的真实状况,“出生/死亡调整”模型已经跟不上现实情况了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wong认为,<strong>当前就业增长的实际速度可能不到每月10万人。这意味着官方公布的就业数据可能被大幅高估,未来很可能面临下调。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">正如Wong所说,非农历史就业数据一如既往地被下调:3 月份新增就业人数下调5000人,4 月下调1万人。修正后,3月和4月就业人数合计比之前报告的少了1.5万人。</p><h2 id=\"id_3537445409\" style=\"text-align: start;\">医疗保健、政府部门、休闲和酒店业成为就业增长的主要引擎</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">非农报告显示,5月份,美国多个行业就业市场展现出强劲的增长势头。其中,医疗保健、政府部门、休闲和酒店业成为就业增长的主要引擎,专业和商业服务部门的就业人数增幅也十分显著,创下了今年初以来的最大增幅。具体来看:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">医疗保健行业新增就业68000人;政府就业人数新增就业43000人;</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">休闲和酒店业的就业人数继续呈上升趋势,新增就业42000人;</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">专业、科学和技术服务业新增就业32000人,大幅高于过去一年月均新增的19000个,创下了今年初以来的最大增幅。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">社会救助就业增加15000人,主要集中在个人和家庭服务领域(11000人)。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">零售业就业增加13000人,其中,建筑材料和园林设备及用品经销商新增就业12000人。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其他主要行业的就业几乎没有变化,包括采矿、采石和石油和天然气开采、建筑、制造、批发贸易、运输和仓储、信息、金融活动等。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54160fe3d753ab17286ebd409cc69e0b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\"/></p></blockquote><p><br/></p></body></html>","source":"lsy1700700604709","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国5月非农新增就业27.2万,超过华尔街所有预期,失业率升至两年新高,时薪加速上涨</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国5月非农新增就业27.2万,超过华尔街所有预期,失业率升至两年新高,时薪加速上涨\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-07 20:30 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3716819><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>有分析认为,失业率上升是劳动力市场疲软的更有力证据,如果失业率继续恶化,美联储在9月份降息的可能性将大大增加。美国5月非农新增就业和工资数据全面超预期,劳动力市场高烧不退,美联储年内降息的预期被狠狠打压。但与此同时,失业率升至两年新高,预示着经济增长乏力,这使降息的前景变得更加复杂。6月7日晚间,美国劳工统计局公布数据显示,美国5月非农就业人口增长27.2万人,高于媒体此前调查的所有分析师的预期(...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3716819\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52e6e6d04d9823325064d60aa26462e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3716819","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117411896","content_text":"有分析认为,失业率上升是劳动力市场疲软的更有力证据,如果失业率继续恶化,美联储在9月份降息的可能性将大大增加。美国5月非农新增就业和工资数据全面超预期,劳动力市场高烧不退,美联储年内降息的预期被狠狠打压。但与此同时,失业率升至两年新高,预示着经济增长乏力,这使降息的前景变得更加复杂。6月7日晚间,美国劳工统计局公布数据显示,美国5月非农就业人口增长27.2万人,高于媒体此前调查的所有分析师的预期(12万-25.8万人),大幅高于共识预期的18万人,同时较前值17.5万人(下修为16.5万人)大幅反弹。平均时薪同比增速为4.1%,高于预期和前值的3.9%,环比增速从上月的0.2%反弹至0.4%,预期为0.3%。失业率为4%,较前值和预期上升0.1个百分点,为两年多来首次升至该水平。与此同时,劳动参与率也降至去年年初以来的最低点62.5%,反映出更多人选择退出劳动力大军。降息预期再被泼冷水,年内能降息几次?数据公布后,美股三大股指期货直线跳水,美国国债收益率走高,10年期国债收益率走高逾10bp。交易员下调了对今年最后三次会议美联储降息的押注。本周早些时候,他们还预计年底前可能有两次、每次25个基点的降息行动,但在非农报告发布后,已下调到仅一次。与此同时,交易员下调对欧洲央行降息的押注,预计年底前降息29个基点。不过,有分析认为,失业率上升是劳动力市场疲软的更有力证据,如果失业率继续恶化,美联储在9月份降息的可能性将大大增加。摩根士丹利坚持认为,美联储将在从9月开始降息三次,“我们认为,美联储将把失业率上升视为经济进一步放缓的迹象”。新增就业和失业率同时上升,5月非农存在多少水分?新增就业大超预期,为何失业率不降反升?尽管企业调查显示就业市场异常火热,但衡量失业率更为准确的家庭调查报告称,5月美国劳动人口数量大幅下降了40.8万人!这意味着,一直呈上升趋势的企业调查与停滞不前的家庭调查数据之间的差距,已经创下了历史新高!家庭调查的就业人数目前已回落到去年夏天的水平。那么问题来了,这次的27.2万新增就业人数中,存在多少水分?有人发现,根据美国劳工统计局的数据,其中有23.1万个就业岗位来自“出生/死亡调整”(Birth/Death adjustment)模型,也就是根据新企业成立的估算值。这部分工作岗位实际上并没有被统计,而是被假定存在并直接计入电子表格中。也就是说,这23.1万个就业人数只是统计局基于模型假设“凭空创造”出来的,用以调整就业总人数。知名分析师Anna Wong也指出,5月份非农报告释放出了劳动力市场的矛盾信号。虽然就业人数强劲增长,但失业率却上升到了4%。她认为,失业率数据目前更能反映就业市场的真实状况,“出生/死亡调整”模型已经跟不上现实情况了。Wong认为,当前就业增长的实际速度可能不到每月10万人。这意味着官方公布的就业数据可能被大幅高估,未来很可能面临下调。正如Wong所说,非农历史就业数据一如既往地被下调:3 月份新增就业人数下调5000人,4 月下调1万人。修正后,3月和4月就业人数合计比之前报告的少了1.5万人。医疗保健、政府部门、休闲和酒店业成为就业增长的主要引擎非农报告显示,5月份,美国多个行业就业市场展现出强劲的增长势头。其中,医疗保健、政府部门、休闲和酒店业成为就业增长的主要引擎,专业和商业服务部门的就业人数增幅也十分显著,创下了今年初以来的最大增幅。具体来看:医疗保健行业新增就业68000人;政府就业人数新增就业43000人;休闲和酒店业的就业人数继续呈上升趋势,新增就业42000人;专业、科学和技术服务业新增就业32000人,大幅高于过去一年月均新增的19000个,创下了今年初以来的最大增幅。社会救助就业增加15000人,主要集中在个人和家庭服务领域(11000人)。零售业就业增加13000人,其中,建筑材料和园林设备及用品经销商新增就业12000人。其他主要行业的就业几乎没有变化,包括采矿、采石和石油和天然气开采、建筑、制造、批发贸易、运输和仓储、信息、金融活动等。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}