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424cc73c

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2021-07-12

Elon ?

2021-07-12

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Apes let’s go

2021-06-17

Ape ape ape

Will AMC, the Meme Stock Alpha Dog, Go Even Higher?

2021-06-15

Ape ape ape

AMC stock slips 2.2% premarket, after running up 33.1% over the past 2 sessions

2021-06-01

Let’s go!!

2021-05-31

Buy the dip at 15!!!

2021-05-31

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Ape together strong

2021-05-29

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$We got this

2021-05-29

Let’s go higher!!

2021-05-28

Up today ?

2021-05-26

So many people wants the bond?

2021-05-26

What’s going on with you

2021-05-25

What will u do today

2021-05-22

Bond drop incoming

2021-05-20

Fly high high

2021-05-19

Analysis financial report today

2021-05-17

Singapore HK travel bubble burst again :(

2021-05-14

Up it goes again

2021-05-12

Stock price not matching Tesla’s situation isthe best example of human behavior

2021-05-11

Pls go up!!

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Just how long can the rally go on?\nIn January, it was GameStop(NY","content":"<p>AMC stock has been surging lately. Just how long can the rally go on?</p>\n<p>In January, it was&nbsp;<b>GameStop</b>(NYSE:<b><u>GME</u></b>) leading the charge at the center of the Reddit rally. Now,<b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:<b><u>AMC</u></b>) is the front man, this time leading the so-called meme stock rally.</p>\n<p>Investors are wondering how long this rally can last and whether it’s actually sustainable.</p>\n<p>I hate to stick my neck out in these types of scenarios. But generally the answer is no, these types of rallies do not tend to hold up over time. That said, there is nothing general about this situation, and we’re seeing an orchestrated effort to squeeze a handful of stocks higher. After all, GameStop has held up pretty well from its initial squeeze.</p>\n<p>Some find this price action entertaining. Others find it insulting. I just say, it is what it is. If you don’t want to participate in it, don’t. There are thousands of securities to trade on a daily basis and this affects about two dozen of them. If you are going to get involved, just keep your risk in focus, as the trading ranges are incredibly wide.</p>\n<p>For now, AMC remains the alpha dog in this current rally.</p>\n<p><b>Reddit Saves AMC</b></p>\n<p>2021 feels like a better year than 2020. There’s light at the end of the tunnel and we’re emerging from the novel coronavirus pandemic. Airport traffic is hitting new heights since the pandemic, while the U.S. has seen new cases plunge amid a strong vaccination push.</p>\n<p>But let’s not forget, we also<i>still</i>have hundreds of deaths a day occurring the U.S. due to Covid-19. Globally, we’ve now had&nbsp;more coronavirus deaths in 2021 vs. 2020.</p>\n<p>While things are clearly improving, particularly in the U.S., we haven’t gotten the full all-clear. Further, Q1 and the beginning of Q2 were a painful reality for businesses like AMC.</p>\n<p>But thanks to the Reddit short squeeze we saw earlier in the year, the company was able to raise a substantial amount of cash. In fact, it has now done so several times, allowing AMC to bolster its balance sheet.</p>\n<p>On Jan. 25, the company announced it raised or had commitments for $917 million. More than half of this was via equity, with the rest in various forms of debt.This would help AMC&nbsp;“make it through this dark coronavirus-impacted winter.”</p>\n<p>Then in May, AMC&nbsp;brought in $428 million&nbsp;after selling 43 million shares at just below $10. A few weeks later in June, Mudrick Capital agreed to buy 8.5 million shares for roughly $27 apiece,raising over $230 million. That capital will be used for “acquisition opportunities and investments in existing AMC theatres.”</p>\n<p>In all, the company&nbsp;raised about $1.2 billion this quarter.As President and CEO Adam Aron put it,“with our increased liquidity, an increasingly vaccinated population and the imminent release of blockbuster new movie titles, it is time for AMC to go on the offense again.”</p>\n<p><b>Can the Rally in AMC Last?</b></p>\n<p>Clearly AMC stock will survive. Or at least, it<i>should</i>survive. It’s got more than enough capital on hand to weather whatever remains of the Covid-19 storm and truthfully, management could decide to flood the market with even more supply of stock. A 10 million share secondary offering at $50 would raise half a billion dollars.</p>\n<p>With all the raising it did in Q2 with no ill impact on the stock price, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Aron &amp; Co. pull the trigger on another raise. In fact, I would applaud it after shares hit all-time highs at the beginning of the month.</p>\n<p>Does the company go after something like&nbsp;<b>Imax Corp</b>(NYSE:<b><u>IMAX</u></b>), with a market capitalization below $1.5 billion? Is that what Aron means by going on the offense?</p>\n<p>We’ll find out in the coming weeks and months, but I really think this company will be okay. That said, that doesn’t mean its stock is a good value. Trading in AMC stock is one thing. Investing in it is another.</p>\n<p>Analysts expect AMC to&nbsp;remain unprofitable in 2022. Further, estimates call for “just” $2.5 billion in sales this year as it still feels the impact of Covid-19. In 2022, estimates call for $4.8 billion in sales. Round it up to $5 billion and we have a stock trading at six times 2022 revenue for a firm that never had sustained operating margins above 10%, a figure that was below 5%&nbsp;<i>before</i>&nbsp;Covid-19.</p>\n<p><b>Bottom Line on AMC Stock</b></p>\n<p>I would really like to see the $35 level hold as support on a pullback. Below puts the 21-day moving average in play, then ~$20 — the prior 2021 high.</p>\n<p>Above $50 and $60 is in play, followed by the 52-week high at $72.62. Above that and this baby could continue to fly.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will AMC, the Meme Stock Alpha Dog, Go Even Higher?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill AMC, the Meme Stock Alpha Dog, Go Even Higher?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-17 11:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/06/will-amc-the-meme-stock-alpha-dog-go-even-higher/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AMC stock has been surging lately. Just how long can the rally go on?\nIn January, it was GameStop(NYSE:GME) leading the charge at the center of the Reddit rally. Now,AMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC) is the...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/will-amc-the-meme-stock-alpha-dog-go-even-higher/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/will-amc-the-meme-stock-alpha-dog-go-even-higher/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167564439","content_text":"AMC stock has been surging lately. Just how long can the rally go on?\nIn January, it was GameStop(NYSE:GME) leading the charge at the center of the Reddit rally. Now,AMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC) is the front man, this time leading the so-called meme stock rally.\nInvestors are wondering how long this rally can last and whether it’s actually sustainable.\nI hate to stick my neck out in these types of scenarios. But generally the answer is no, these types of rallies do not tend to hold up over time. That said, there is nothing general about this situation, and we’re seeing an orchestrated effort to squeeze a handful of stocks higher. After all, GameStop has held up pretty well from its initial squeeze.\nSome find this price action entertaining. Others find it insulting. I just say, it is what it is. If you don’t want to participate in it, don’t. There are thousands of securities to trade on a daily basis and this affects about two dozen of them. If you are going to get involved, just keep your risk in focus, as the trading ranges are incredibly wide.\nFor now, AMC remains the alpha dog in this current rally.\nReddit Saves AMC\n2021 feels like a better year than 2020. There’s light at the end of the tunnel and we’re emerging from the novel coronavirus pandemic. Airport traffic is hitting new heights since the pandemic, while the U.S. has seen new cases plunge amid a strong vaccination push.\nBut let’s not forget, we alsostillhave hundreds of deaths a day occurring the U.S. due to Covid-19. Globally, we’ve now had more coronavirus deaths in 2021 vs. 2020.\nWhile things are clearly improving, particularly in the U.S., we haven’t gotten the full all-clear. Further, Q1 and the beginning of Q2 were a painful reality for businesses like AMC.\nBut thanks to the Reddit short squeeze we saw earlier in the year, the company was able to raise a substantial amount of cash. In fact, it has now done so several times, allowing AMC to bolster its balance sheet.\nOn Jan. 25, the company announced it raised or had commitments for $917 million. More than half of this was via equity, with the rest in various forms of debt.This would help AMC “make it through this dark coronavirus-impacted winter.”\nThen in May, AMC brought in $428 million after selling 43 million shares at just below $10. A few weeks later in June, Mudrick Capital agreed to buy 8.5 million shares for roughly $27 apiece,raising over $230 million. That capital will be used for “acquisition opportunities and investments in existing AMC theatres.”\nIn all, the company raised about $1.2 billion this quarter.As President and CEO Adam Aron put it,“with our increased liquidity, an increasingly vaccinated population and the imminent release of blockbuster new movie titles, it is time for AMC to go on the offense again.”\nCan the Rally in AMC Last?\nClearly AMC stock will survive. Or at least, itshouldsurvive. It’s got more than enough capital on hand to weather whatever remains of the Covid-19 storm and truthfully, management could decide to flood the market with even more supply of stock. A 10 million share secondary offering at $50 would raise half a billion dollars.\nWith all the raising it did in Q2 with no ill impact on the stock price, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Aron & Co. pull the trigger on another raise. In fact, I would applaud it after shares hit all-time highs at the beginning of the month.\nDoes the company go after something like Imax Corp(NYSE:IMAX), with a market capitalization below $1.5 billion? Is that what Aron means by going on the offense?\nWe’ll find out in the coming weeks and months, but I really think this company will be okay. That said, that doesn’t mean its stock is a good value. Trading in AMC stock is one thing. Investing in it is another.\nAnalysts expect AMC to remain unprofitable in 2022. Further, estimates call for “just” $2.5 billion in sales this year as it still feels the impact of Covid-19. In 2022, estimates call for $4.8 billion in sales. Round it up to $5 billion and we have a stock trading at six times 2022 revenue for a firm that never had sustained operating margins above 10%, a figure that was below 5% before Covid-19.\nBottom Line on AMC Stock\nI would really like to see the $35 level hold as support on a pullback. Below puts the 21-day moving average in play, then ~$20 — the prior 2021 high.\nAbove $50 and $60 is in play, followed by the 52-week high at $72.62. Above that and this baby could continue to fly.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":187464555,"gmtCreate":1623762361277,"gmtModify":1631891741972,"author":{"id":"3581676808108385","authorId":"3581676808108385","name":"424cc73c","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581676808108385","authorIdStr":"3581676808108385"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ape ape ape","listText":"Ape ape ape","text":"Ape ape ape","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187464555","repostId":"2143751575","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2143751575","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow 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html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC stock slips 2.2% premarket, after running up 33.1% over the past 2 sessions</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC stock slips 2.2% premarket, after running up 33.1% over the past 2 sessions\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-15 20:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\nMW AMC stock slips 2.2% premarket, after running up 33.1% over the past 2 sessions\n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/END\">$(END)$</a> Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  June 15, 2021 08:41 ET (12:41 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线","TERN":"Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","CRCT":"Cricut, 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filings reveal.</p><p><b>What Happened:</b>Baillie Gifford, a 110-year-old asset management firm and an early investor in Tesla, sold 11.1 million shares, or 1.15% of the Elon Musk-led company’s total shares outstanding, reducing the fund’s holding by 40% in the EV maker from the previous quarter.</p><p>The Scottish firm has been lowering its stake in the company for a while and now owns about 1.7% of Tesla's outstanding shares at 16.22 million; in the previous quarter, the firm had&nbsp;sold 7.4 million shares.</p><p>The investment firm first bought 2.3 million&nbsp;Tesla shares in early 2013 when Tesla shares were trading under $8. Tesla shares closed 1.10% lower at $663.54 on Thursday and have fallen 6% so far this year.</p><p>In Nio, the investment firm sold about 15.9 million shares, reducing its holding by 14% but still holds a 7.12% stake in the Chinese electric vehicle company that has justannouncedambitious plans to enter the Norway electric vehicle market, its first overseas foray.</p><p>Nio shares closed 2.73% lower at $36.68 on Thursday.</p><p>The investment firm added position in vaccine maker Moderna — buying about 21 million shares, raising its stake to 11.3% in the Massachusetts-based company.</p><p>Moderna shares closed 1.44% lower at $160.50 on Thursday after the company reported its first quarterly profit helped by covid vaccine sales.</p><p>Some other stocks sold by the firm in Q1 included&nbsp;<b>Amazon.com Inc</b>,&nbsp;<b>Alphabet Inc</b>, and&nbsp;<b>Facebook Inc</b>.</p><p>Baillie Gifford’s Other Q1 buys included&nbsp;<b>Illumina Inc</b>(NASDAQ:ILMN),&nbsp;<b>Shopify Inc</b>(NYSE:SHOP), and&nbsp;<b>Spotify Technology</b>(NYSE:SPOT),&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments Corp</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV),&nbsp;<b>Snap Inc.</b>(NYSE:SNAP), and&nbsp;<b>Li Auto Inc.</b>(NYSE:LI).</p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla, Nio Significantly Cut From Baillie Gifford Portfolio, Here's What The Firm Bought Instead In Q1</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla, Nio Significantly Cut From Baillie Gifford Portfolio, Here's What The Firm Bought Instead In Q1\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-07 16:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/05/21006676/tesla-nio-significantly-cut-from-baillie-gifford-portfolio-heres-what-the-firm-bought-in><strong>benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investment management firm Baillie Gifford shed significant stake in electric carmakers Tesla Inc and Nio Inc in the first quarter and bought shares in vaccine maker Moderna Inc, regulatory filings ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/05/21006676/tesla-nio-significantly-cut-from-baillie-gifford-portfolio-heres-what-the-firm-bought-in\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/05/21006676/tesla-nio-significantly-cut-from-baillie-gifford-portfolio-heres-what-the-firm-bought-in","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171540841","content_text":"Investment management firm Baillie Gifford shed significant stake in electric carmakers Tesla Inc and Nio Inc in the first quarter and bought shares in vaccine maker Moderna Inc, regulatory filings reveal.What Happened:Baillie Gifford, a 110-year-old asset management firm and an early investor in Tesla, sold 11.1 million shares, or 1.15% of the Elon Musk-led company’s total shares outstanding, reducing the fund’s holding by 40% in the EV maker from the previous quarter.The Scottish firm has been lowering its stake in the company for a while and now owns about 1.7% of Tesla's outstanding shares at 16.22 million; in the previous quarter, the firm had sold 7.4 million shares.The investment firm first bought 2.3 million Tesla shares in early 2013 when Tesla shares were trading under $8. Tesla shares closed 1.10% lower at $663.54 on Thursday and have fallen 6% so far this year.In Nio, the investment firm sold about 15.9 million shares, reducing its holding by 14% but still holds a 7.12% stake in the Chinese electric vehicle company that has justannouncedambitious plans to enter the Norway electric vehicle market, its first overseas foray.Nio shares closed 2.73% lower at $36.68 on Thursday.The investment firm added position in vaccine maker Moderna — buying about 21 million shares, raising its stake to 11.3% in the Massachusetts-based company.Moderna shares closed 1.44% lower at $160.50 on Thursday after the company reported its first quarterly profit helped by covid vaccine sales.Some other stocks sold by the firm in Q1 included Amazon.com Inc, Alphabet Inc, and Facebook Inc.Baillie Gifford’s Other Q1 buys included Illumina Inc(NASDAQ:ILMN), Shopify Inc(NYSE:SHOP), and Spotify Technology(NYSE:SPOT), Clover Health Investments Corp(NASDAQ:CLOV), Snap Inc.(NYSE:SNAP), 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Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday:&nbsp;Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.</p><p>On Wednesday,&nbsp;Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.&nbsp;Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on&nbsp;Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a866fbe5118566e68842053d76e2b9\" tg-width=\"1382\" tg-height=\"750\"></p><p>On the economic calendar this week, the&nbsp;main event will jobs Friday.&nbsp;The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.</p><p>Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its&nbsp;Services equivalent on Wednesday.</p><p>Enterprise Products Partners&nbsp;and Estée Lauder release earnings.</p><p>Merck and&nbsp;Public Storage&nbsp;hold virtual investor days.</p><p><b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.</p><p><b>The Institute for Supply</b>&nbsp;Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.</p><p><b>Tuesday 5/4</b></p><p>Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.</p><p>Eli Lilly&nbsp;holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.</p><p>Union Pacific&nbsp;holds its 2021 virtual investor day.</p><p><b>Wednesday 5/5</b></p><p>Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.</p><p><b>ADP releases</b>&nbsp;its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.</p><p><b>ISM releases</b>&nbsp;its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.</p><p><b>Thursday 5/6</b></p><p>Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and&nbsp;Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><b>The Department of Labor</b>&nbsp;reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.</p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.</p><p><b>Friday 5/7</b></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.</p><p>Cigna and&nbsp;<b>Liberty Media</b>&nbsp;report earnings.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Uber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-03 07:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-pfizer-paypal-t-mobile-viacomcbs-general-motors-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51619982000?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday: ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-pfizer-paypal-t-mobile-viacomcbs-general-motors-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51619982000?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal","UBER":"优步",".DJI":"道琼斯","PFE":"辉瑞",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GM":"通用汽车",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TMUS":"T-Mobile US Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-pfizer-paypal-t-mobile-viacomcbs-general-motors-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51619982000?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135819410","content_text":"It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday: Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.On Wednesday, Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings. Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on Friday.On the economic calendar this week, the main event will jobs Friday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its Services equivalent on Wednesday.Enterprise Products Partners and Estée Lauder release earnings.Merck and Public Storage hold virtual investor days.The Census Bureau reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.The Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.Tuesday 5/4Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.Eli Lilly holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.Union Pacific holds its 2021 virtual investor day.Wednesday 5/5Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.ADP releases its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.ISM releases its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.Thursday 5/6Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.Friday 5/7The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.Cigna and Liberty Media report earnings.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":146766486,"gmtCreate":1626099874745,"gmtModify":1631891741935,"author":{"id":"3581676808108385","authorId":"3581676808108385","name":"424cc73c","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581676808108385","idStr":"3581676808108385"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Elon ?","listText":"Elon ?","text":"Elon ?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e52a73bb732b7e4f363a04dc6afd98ee","width":"1125","height":"3282"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146766486","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":133054328,"gmtCreate":1621674400464,"gmtModify":1634187207551,"author":{"id":"3581676808108385","authorId":"3581676808108385","name":"424cc73c","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581676808108385","idStr":"3581676808108385"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bond drop incoming","listText":"Bond drop incoming","text":"Bond drop incoming","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2dd593ffdb7e0113045b7bd7ba98b47","width":"1125","height":"2499"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133054328","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":65,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":130959475,"gmtCreate":1621506706997,"gmtModify":1634188595197,"author":{"id":"3581676808108385","authorId":"3581676808108385","name":"424cc73c","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581676808108385","idStr":"3581676808108385"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fly high high","listText":"Fly high high","text":"Fly high high","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f8a03221635cb457f351309230d60f","width":"1125","height":"2499"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/130959475","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":94,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":195042304,"gmtCreate":1621243351708,"gmtModify":1634193097570,"author":{"id":"3581676808108385","authorId":"3581676808108385","name":"424cc73c","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581676808108385","idStr":"3581676808108385"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Singapore HK travel bubble burst again :(","listText":"Singapore HK travel bubble burst again :(","text":"Singapore HK travel bubble burst again :(","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/905fa052f665298395c8478ce4a78367","width":"1125","height":"2499"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195042304","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":23,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":198456197,"gmtCreate":1620983992519,"gmtModify":1634194783680,"author":{"id":"3581676808108385","authorId":"3581676808108385","name":"424cc73c","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581676808108385","idStr":"3581676808108385"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up it goes again","listText":"Up it goes again","text":"Up it goes again","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfaa51e73599c7f6627b49563b4f3835","width":"1125","height":"3747"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198456197","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":190548278,"gmtCreate":1620638108994,"gmtModify":1634197506371,"author":{"id":"3581676808108385","authorId":"3581676808108385","name":"424cc73c","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581676808108385","idStr":"3581676808108385"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Drop to 4.5!!","listText":"Drop to 4.5!!","text":"Drop to 4.5!!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca6bd51c084fc74e40b130842eb88a0b","width":"1125","height":"2499"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190548278","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":108212820,"gmtCreate":1620029741560,"gmtModify":1634208399498,"author":{"id":"3581676808108385","authorId":"3581676808108385","name":"424cc73c","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581676808108385","idStr":"3581676808108385"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108212820","repostId":"1139118247","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139118247","pubTimestamp":1620029533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139118247?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-03 16:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Snap: Fundamental Inertia Will Send This Rocket Higher","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139118247","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSNAP delivered its 1Q report on Thursday, April 22nd. The results were impressive to say th","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>SNAP delivered its 1Q report on Thursday, April 22nd. The results were impressive to say the least. We saw across the board beats on almost every front.</li>\n <li>SNAP's core monetization engine remains the Discover part of the platform, the least sticky and least optimal part of the platform long-term for advertisers.</li>\n <li>Expect innovation to unlock advertiser dollars at SNAP. SNAP still has monetization avenues to move towards in: Stories, Maps, AR, Spotlight and more.</li>\n <li>On top of all this, user growth is showing absolutely no signs of slowing down, a quite promising trend considering the street has never viewed SNAP as the real reopening play that it is.</li>\n <li>Reiterating Buy rating. PT remains $100.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a249b8cd64d05fa3a8cf33e810ac00d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>My Grade of Snap's Q1 Report: A</b></p>\n<p>Something I intend to start doing more frequently during earnings season is grading the quarterly reports of the companies I cover. So, we'll start with Snap (NYSE:SNAP). I gave Snap an<i>\"A\"</i>for their 1Q report. Let's break down the print in more detail.</p>\n<ul>\n <li><i><b>EPS:</b></i>$0.00 actual vs. -$0.06 expected</li>\n <li><i><b>Revenue:</b></i>$770M actual vs. $743.8M expected</li>\n <li><i><b>DAUs:</b></i>280M actual vs. 274.62M expected</li>\n <li><b><i>ARPU:</i></b>$2.74 actual vs. $2.72 expected</li>\n <li><b><i>Q2 Rev. Guide:</i></b>$830M (midpoint) actual vs. $826.99M expected</li>\n</ul>\n<p>These are just the high level numbers, I'll be going more in-depth later on. That said, what a quarter. When Snap reported its 4Q results a few months ago, investors were spooked when their adjusted EBITDA guide came up short of expectations. The company explained their motivations to achieve critical mass of the Spotlight product, which would be quite costly. Fast forward to now, and we see that while Snap did spend big on Spotlight, they were able to still get to breakeven. Talk about underpromising and overdelivering. This beat was likely the most impressive part of Snap's report as it proved that the company could take strides towards investing in themselves while also being fiscally responsible.</p>\n<p>The second best part of this quarter was likely the stunning engagement the platform saw. Snap originally guided ~275 million DAUs for Q1 when they printed their Q4 numbers. This guidance seemed to support the narrative that Snap was witnessing somewhat of a deceleration in user growth as the world economy opened back up. This Q1 report shows quite the opposite trend. Snap added 15 million users sequentially in Q1, versus the 16 million added in Q4. Snap isn't really slowing down on the user addition in spite of the ongoing reopening. All major geographies grew sequentially (North America, Europe, Rest of World) and Android became the predominant Snapchat operating system for the first time in company history.</p>\n<p>Snap's ARPU also beat expectations narrowly as Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) IDFA operating system changes were pushed into Q2. While this is a risk (more on that later), it didn't materialize in Q1, which allowed for some upside to slightly depressed expectations.</p>\n<p>And finally, Snap delivered slightly better than expected revenue guidance in Q2. Something to note is that over the last several quarters, Snap appears to have placed deliberately conservative guidance, where they continuously blow out the top-end of their guidance. This trend of underpromising and overdelivering has led to large beats relative to expectations. This is why in spite of the small nature of the beat on Q2 revenue guidance, it's important we look at the top end of the $820-840M revenue guidance as the<i>real</i>bar.</p>\n<p>Overall, Snap just didn't miss a beat this quarter. While it wasn't necessarily a blockbuster quarter, they beat on every single level, with some relatively large beats (EPS and DAU) that drove sentiment coming out of the report. Overall, I'm giving this quarter a grade of an<b>\"A\"</b>.</p>\n<p><b>Conference Call Breakdown</b></p>\n<p>Without further ado, let's dive straight into Snap's Q1 earnings call. To be clear, I'm not going to go over every point, just the points that stuck out to me personally and deemed incredibly relevant to analysis of the business.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>We launched Spotlight in India, Mexico, and Brazil during Q1, and are now live in over a dozen countries, reaching more than 125 million monthly active users on Spotlight in March. - Evan Spiegel, CEO</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The key takeaway from this remark is simple: Snapchat's high spending levels to build out critical mass have led to ever-increasing levels of engagement on the Spotlight section of the platform. Last quarter, the number was 100 million MAUs. Now in Q1 we're already at 125 million. Spotlight is taking off.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>We grew revenue 66 % year-over-year to $770 million, grew daily active users 22% year-over-year to 280 million, and generated $126 million in free cash flow. - Evan Spiegel, CEO</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>This note is less important, but it highlights how strong Snap has turned around. 66% revenue growth against a normal Q1 comp is downright insane. This would put Snap in the top tier of high valuation/high growth software stocks. In addition, Snap, for the first time in the company's history, generated cash rather than burning it. This shows that Snap can be both a high growth name, and a fiscally responsible company pushing towards profitability. $126 million in FCF definitely doesn't hurt the story here.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>More advertisers were active on our platform than ever as our active advertiser base approximately doubled year-over-year in Q1. We have a large opportunity to gain share of the global digital ad market, which is $340 billion and growing. - Jeremi Gorman</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Any good software stock (more on this later) needs to have a large addressable market. Management nails that here by mentioning that (a.) they have a massive $340 billion market, and that (b.) they're making inroads on taking share of that market, with advertisers more than<i>doubling</i>y/y.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The fact that these changes are coming later than we anticipated has provided additional time to adopt Apple's SKAdNetwork and begin implementing and testing with our partners. Advertisers that represent a majority of our direct response advertising revenue have successfully implemented SKAdnetwork for their Snap campaigns. - Jeremi Gorman</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>One of the biggest headline risks to the Snap bull case has been the coming IDFA changes made by Apple that are set to roll out this quarter. Essentially, Apple is tweaking its iOS mobile operating system to allow users to have more control over where the data goes and who collects it. This change is expected to have a negative impact on ad relevance and targeting. Fortunately, Snap seems to be working through any potential headwinds with advertisers right now, prior to the changes occurring. This is calming for me as it assuages any temporary fears I have over IDFA changes being a material headwind to revenue.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>As indicated during our recent Investor Day, we are accelerating our investments in sales and sales support beyond North America in 2021 in order to capture our global ARPU opportunity faster in the years ahead. Average eCPM increased 67% year-over-year in Q1. Rising eCPM relative to the prior year is driven by a combination of improved optimization capabilities within our auction, a mix shift toward relatively higher eCPM products such as commercials, as well as a mix shift toward relatively higher eCPM regions such as North America.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>While our topline has benefited from year-over-year growth in eCPM in recent quarters, the cost per action for our advertising partners declined sequentially for three of our top four goal-based bidding objectives in Q1, as we continue to enhance our optimization capabilities in order to use our inventory more efficiently. Consequently, we believe that we will be able to deliver attractive returns on ad spend to our advertising partners as eCPM grows over the long term.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In addition, the ongoing growth of our community and strong engagement in areas of our application that we have not yet begun to monetize, provide significant room to expand our inventory and expand our long-term ARPU opportunity over time. - Derek Andersen</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Now this is a long segment from the call but try to bear with me here. If you haven't seen my prior breakdown of Snap, clickherefor my analysis of Snap's Investor Day among other things. The first thing to point out in this comment is North America, the geography that has been driving monetization growth, will merely be the first place Snap gets its feet wet with its go to market strategy. Europe and ROW are next. Once we see North America begin to stall (which we shouldn't see for a while), Snap will be ready to scale internationally. The next thing management points out is that in spite of rising eCPMs that have enabled robust ARPU and overall revenue growth, the internal cost to advertise has actually gotten<i>more</i>efficient for advertisers. Snap's believes this win-win combo will continue long term. In addition, untapped parts of the Snapchat product (think Maps, Communication, and Spotlight) will drive eCPMs higher and expand the company's ARPU long-term.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>We continue to make significant progress against our goal of driving down our underlying infrastructure unit costs over time. In Q1, our infrastructure costs per DAU benefited from several factors, with the most significant being efficiency improvements delivered by our engineering teams, including the re-architecture of our messaging platform that we mentioned during our recent Investor Day. In addition, we continued to benefit in Q1 from negotiated rate improvements for several of our cloud services.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Lastly, the acceleration in growth of our community has been a modest benefit to infrastructure cost per DAU in recent quarters as new users tend to have lower initial marginal cloud infrastructure costs relative to longer tenured Snapchatters. These factors combined to deliver the lowest infrastructure costs per DAU we have reported as a public company at just $0.62 in Q1, down from $0.69 in the prior quarter and $0.71 in the prior year.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>On the content side, we continue to invest to support the launch of Spotlight in Q1. And this contributed approximately $90 million to our cost of revenue in the quarter, representing a 12 percentage point headwind to gross margin expansion in the quarter. We are highly encouraged by the early returns from our investments in Spotlight, with this new platform reaching over 125 million monthly active users in March. While it is still very early for this new platform, we are excited about the potential for Spotlight to further expand our monetization opportunity in the future. - Derek Andersen</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Again, another long quote so bear with me here. First of all, Snap's gross margin trend is proof that headline numbers are just that. Headline numbers. We have to look under the hood at what Snap is really doing with gross margins. Infrastructure costs, since inception, have been the bread and butter of Snap's gross costs. While gross margin expansion has tailed off recently (because of Spotlight, more on that later), it isn't because users are getting too expensive to onboard or keep on platform. Snap's engineering team has made great progress in lowering internal hosting and infrastructure costs with infrastructure expense per DAU down ~13% Y/Y. Essentially, what this means is Snapchat has gotten very efficient infrastructure spending and this reduction in infrastructure spend has been (and will be) a tailwind for gross margins going forward. Remember how gross margins were only up ~100bps y/y? Well, backing out Spotlight expenses (which will be phased out over time), Snap's gross margins were actually closer to ~60% in Q1. This just goes to show Snap's newfound efficiency in innovating while staying fiscally disciplined. This expenditure has paid off, with 125 million MAUs on Spotlight<i>already</i>and plenty of room for future monetization.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>As we look forward to Q2, we estimate that DAU will grow at a rate consistent with the prior quarter, or approximately 22% year-over-year to reach $290 million in Q2. On the monetization side, we are cautiously optimistic that the operating environment will continue to improve. Our guidance range is for revenue of $820 million to $840 million, implying year-over-year revenue growth of approximately 80% to 85% in Q2. This range reflects our best current estimate of the potential impact of anticipated disruptions associated with the iOS platform changes.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>It is not clear yet what the longer-term impact of the iOS platform changes may be for the top line momentum of our business. And this may not be clear until several months or more after the changes are implemented. Until then, we will remain focused on helping our partners navigate these changes while optimizing return on ad spend across our advertising products and platform.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>On the expense side in Q2, we intend to continue to invest in the long-term growth of our business, and we'll continue to support the launch of Spotlight with our $1 million per day creator fund in order to build on the momentum we are seeing with this exciting new platform. While we see a path to adjusted EBITDA breakeven in Q2, we are also cognizant that there are a number of cost drivers for our business, including travel and event-related costs that have been lower over the past year due to COVID-related restrictions. It is likely that these activities will begin to resume in the coming months as restrictions ease and that the related costs will begin to return to our cost structure as a result. Given this, our guidance range is for adjusted EBITDA to be between negative $20 million and breakeven for Q2. - Derek Andersen</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Okay so here is the guidance. 80-85% revenue growth y/y. Granted this is against a relatively weak Q2 comp. Nevertheless, this level of growth with scaling cost efficiency is downright impressive. Snap anticipates a slight slowdown in net sequential user adds from ~15 million to ~10 million. To be expected heading into easing lockdowns. In addition, in spite of the continued high spending on Spotlight, Snap is guiding very nicely for its EBITDA trajectory. iOS changes remain a short to medium term risk. And while it is a risk, it is also factored into the guide. If this risk doesn't materialize, I would fully expect Snap to take out the top end of its revenue guidance.</p>\n<p>One thing I would like to acknowledge here now that I've gone through my biggest points in the prepared remarks is this: I'm not touching on every single thing in this call. Management gives even more color. </p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>So it was more difficult to kind of perfectly execute this verticalization and specialist in terms of different vertical, measurement specialists or marketing specialists or communication specialists by vertical. But I think what's so exciting about the opportunity is that we now know the playbook. You're seeing it show up in our strong results in North America. And so we are going to replicate it in Europe and the rest of the world and those investments we were talking about to accelerate our growth internationally. - Jeremi Gorman</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>One of the key drivers of Snap's results when it comes to ARPU growth in the North American geography has been fleshing out an effective sales team. If you paid close attention to the 1Q print, you might have noticed that ARPU was actually negative y/y in the ROW segment. This has caused a bit of concern, though in this case it is likely because ARPU is a mostly output metric in Snap's developing markets. Nevertheless, Snap now knows the gameplan to effectively scaling up the monetization of their platform domestically. They can begin to implement those types of investments internationally and scale monetization there too.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>But if you get into the second half, those comps are going to look a little bit more like what we saw in Q1. So obviously, they're a little tougher. We feel good about the results we put up in Q1 on relatively tougher comps. - Derek Andersen</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>This comment from management relates to a question asked by an analyst on tougher 2H comps. Snap is saying that the back half comps are probably going to look a lot like the Q1 comps. These comps will be a little more difficult than the Q2 comp, since Q2'20 was damaged by Covid's effect on the ad industry. That said, this comment could be insinuating that they are anticipating similar growth in 2H as they saw in Q1.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Right now, what we're really focused on is making the investments in our sales and sales support to build on the momentum. We like what we're seeing on the active advertiser growth. We're liking what we see on the upfront commitments and we're focused on delivering the return on ad spend, investing in our optimization capabilities so that we can deliver return on ad spend for those advertising partners just to continue to build on the momentum we're seeing.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Look, while we're excited about the momentum that we're seeing there on the Spotlight side, it's early there. We're really excited about the product and the momentum. In terms of the need to open that up to advertising, I think we continue to be more demand constrained than supply constrained. So, we're going to continue to focus on improving the experience for our Snapchatter community and for creators in the near term, and we've got lots of room to grow the top line in the areas that we're already monetizing today over the near term. Thanks for the question. - Derek Andersen</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Again, another long blurb, but let's break it down. Snap is prioritizing making investments in its sales team to continue building up growth in their advertiser count. This strategy of investing in the sales team has been working in terms of bringing new advertisers in and increasing advertiser commitments. Then, turning to Spotlight, we get a little bit of discouraging/bearish commentary. While management loves the engagement they are seeing on the Spotlight section of the platform, investors should expect Snap to play the long game with this one. Spotlight is definitely intriguing, but do not expect near-term boosts in monetization from this part of the platform. Spotlight will take time to bear any real fruit.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>We are really focused on helping our advertisers make the transition to the best possible measurement and optimization tools smoothly. The change happened later than we expected, which gave us a lot of time to prepare and SKAdNetwork is one part of that. So, we're really pleased to see that advertisers that represent the majority of our direct response revenue have implemented it so far. But we know that there's a lot of work to be done to transition smoothly. - Derek Andersen</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Again, one of Snap's biggest headline risks has been updating their tracking, targeting, and optimization for the IDFA-adjusted era. Snap has had time to work with advertising partners to implement the new tools given to them (by Apple) and work through any air pockets in ad pricing. While we haven't seen these changes come fully into effect yet, meaning there is still an element of uncertainty there, Snap has worked to make the platform advertiser-friendly, and everything seems fine right now.</p>\n<p>Overall it was very hard to not like what Snap had to say this quarter. Everything exceeded expectations, and some IDFA worries were pushed aside, or at least eased. This was a great quarter.</p>\n<p><b>Long-Term Narrative: Numerous Paths To Hypergrowth and Mega Margins</b></p>\n<p>Short-term, the story looks great. But let's look at the long-term narrative. That's what's most important after all.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e98933ed3469802a0c6304a16b65ef13\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"168\"></p>\n<p>I've broken down the long-term bull case on Snap many times during my tenure here atSeeking Alpha. I've covered the company publicly and privately since its IPO in March of 2017. I've been long, short, and everything in between. I can tell you with confidence, that the narrative has never looked as strong with Snap fundamentally as it does right now.</p>\n<p>The narrative is years of ~50%+ revenue growth to come, high margins, fiscal responsibility, and eventually, high levels of profitability. Let me break out why this narrative is so plausible, and why the stock, even at today's levels, is enticing.</p>\n<p><b>Looking At Snap Like a Software Stock</b></p>\n<p>In order to better understand the value in Snap, we should look at the business like a SaaS (software as a service) stock. Excluding the last couple of months, SaaS has been one of the biggest outperforming subsectors of the overall tech sector. Software stocks have garnered the highest multiples and frothiest valuations in the world and it can all be boiled down to these points:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>TAM (total addressable market)</li>\n <li>A disruptive and leading product (or go to market strategy)</li>\n <li>Numerous levers for high, sustained growth</li>\n <li>High long-term margin profile</li>\n <li>Rule of 40 (more on that in a bit)</li>\n <li>narrative optionality (bonus points)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Now, there have been some duds in the software business. That said, the valuations being afforded to software stocks that check these five boxes are among the highest on Wall Street. Just look here.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9530148b6fd7b02248417d014ef4160\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"589\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>These are just a few names in a huge basket of highly valued software stocks that trade at nosebleed valuations. Why do investors hand out such high valuations? It's simple. These companies check all the aforementioned boxes. Snap is no different. Where are they trading though?</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16bc8a86aa75d65c6ed3df1f17c0f1ea\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>They're trading like a name that is at the middle of this growth pack, not at the front of it. I'm going to make the case for Snap to be at the front of this pack, or at least towards the front. Let's go through the five points (and the sixth bonus) to determine if Snap belongs towards the head, rather than the tail.</p>\n<p>The first point is TAM. TAM is an acronym for total addressable market. Essentially, a business' TAM is its long-term market opportunity. Snap's TAM is massive, and quickly growing at that. Snap's TAM is among the largest out of all the aforementioned \"software\" stocks. Snap&nbsp;estimates&nbsp;that the global digital advertising market did ~$339 billion in business last year, and is expected to scale towards ~$543 billion by 2024. So, not only is Snap operating in a<i>massive</i>market, they're operating in a dynamic market. A market that in and of itself is growing rapidly. Some TAMs are relatively static. Digital advertising is not so. So, Snap checks the first box of having a massive TAM.</p>\n<p>The second point is having a disruptive product. Having a large market is great, but if you can't capture meaningful market share with a great product, then the size of said market is irrelevant. Fortunately for Snap, they have a great product. The product that they are selling, is the attention span and purchasing decisions of the most influential purchasers in the world: Gen Z and Millennials. Snap has a lock on these users. Why? Because through years of R&amp;D spend and product rollout, Snap has built an ecosystem that is worth more than any one of the app's features. If Facebook copies a key part of Snap's ecosystem, it doesn't really matter anymore. Snap has the loyalty of its users now. More importantly however, they have carved out a niche in advertising. From an ad platform sophistication standpoint, Snap is on par with the top ad platforms (see slide 33), and they continue to invest in innovative ad formats, giving advertisers choice. Lenses, Commercials, Stories, Spotlight. These are all products that Snap will begin advertising against, giving advertisers different choices as to how they want to reach this coveted demographic. Snap has built out a differentiating product for advertisers, now they just need to iterate on it to see the fruits of their labors come out at scale. Snap checks this box exceptionally well.</p>\n<p>The third point is having numerous growth levers. If the growth runs \"dry\" so to speak in one part, can Snap quickly transition to juicing growth with another aspect of their business? Yes, they absolutely could. You know, the interesting thing is, Snap's Investor Day commentary of numerous years of 50%+ revenue growth is on their current ad product pipeline. This pipeline is mostly their Commercials product on the Discover page and Stories ads. At least, that seems to be the bread and butter of their ad business. Snap hasn't fully tapped into either of these products fully yet, and yet they are able to drive years of 50%+ revenue growth alone? That's unreal, and considering the fact that Snap also has Snap Map, Spotlight, and AR lens ads/experiences, they have more than enough levers to drive growth higher.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afdd3c34f19eec6a6919e4c22ca54bfd\" tg-width=\"310\" tg-height=\"163\"></p>\n<p>Fourth is margins. When I talk about long-term margins, I mean both gross margins and operating margins. With gross margins, I can see Snap between 75-90% long-term (5yrs+). Why? The bulk of their long-term COGS will likely come from infrastructure expenses (i.e. hosting and cloud contracts with GCP and AWS). Hosting costs go up not with ad pricing/ARPU, but with engagement. The more a user engages with an app, then theoretically, the more it costs to host, and the more they are charged on their cloud bill. The thing is, if Snap can seriously crank up ARPU, then COGS would fall in line, because COGS doesn't really correlate with ARPU. This could enable incredibly high margins as infrastructure spend stabilizes while ARPU skyrockets. Some may point out Snap's rising content costs when it comes to Spotlight. The important thing to note is, while Snap is investing heavily upfront to develop a critical mass of engagement, once the ball really starts rolling, they can pull back on spend. Why? Because from then on engagement on the Spotlight part of the platform will be organic.</p>\n<p>Now when it comes to operating margins, I expect a premium there as well. Snap will always be a big SG&amp;A spender and R&amp;D spender. Using stock based compensation is a great tool for morale and building the business, especially when it comes to Snap trying to scale its global sales team. This sales team is critical to onboarding new international advertisers and (the holy grail) small business advertisers. Expect SG&amp;A to continue rising over the coming years as Snap expands its attack opportunity. R&amp;D is critical as well. R&amp;D is what spurs innovation, which is what keeps the platform sticky for both users and advertisers. In social media, retention and growth are the key. R&amp;D is necessary to keep both. That being said, I still expect best in class operating margins relative to other social media platforms. Why? Snap lacks content moderation expenses. You see, the thing that has been weighing on the margins of Facebook and Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) in particular has been high expenses relating to moderating content on platform. Snapchat, for the most part, is free of this content. They don't have to worry about the costs associated with building a moderation team or building out content moderation algorithms. This is huge, as the key reason for Facebook's contracting margins has been content moderation. Snap, in lacking these expenses, has an opportunity for even larger margins.</p>\n<p>The fifth point, tying it all together, is the Rule of 40. For seasoned software investors, the Rule of 40 is a key tool in evaluating how much slack to cut a stock valuation-wise. If you don't know what it is, don't worry I'll explain. The Rule of 40 is simple: Take your revenue growth rate and add it to your cash flow margin (or profit margin). If this net number is above 40%, then investors generally tend to turn a blind eye or at least cut the company some slack valuation wise. Let's run a hypothetical example just so we understand better.</p>\n<p>Company A has revenue growth of 25%, and a cash flow margin of 5%. Combined, Company A's rev. growth + cf margin is 30%, which is less than the Rule of 40.</p>\n<p>Let's apply this to Snap's numbers as of Q1. Snap saw revenue growth of 66% Y/Y against a fair comp. Their free cash flow margin in Q1 was ~16%. This means Snap more than<i>doubles</i>the rule, coming in at 82%, putting them in the top echelon of growth software names.</p>\n<p>And finally, the cherry on top, is Snap's optionality. Snap has massive room to expand in the advertising vertical alone, but wait, there's more. On top of the enormous upside of Snap's advertising business, the company has left room for aggressive expansion elsewhere. Whether it be gaming, eCommerce, or augmented reality hardware, Snap has just begun to open doors to more potential markets to juice up long-term growth.</p>\n<p>With all this said, I am fine with paying almost any multiple on this company's stock because of all the things it has going for it.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>This brings us to my formal valuation of the stock. I value Snap by doing a 2030 buildout of the business, assignment of a fair multiple, and discounting back with WACC (weighted average cost of capital). Let's start with the underlying business assumptions:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>DAUs of ~550M</li>\n <li>ARPU of $55.38/DAU</li>\n <li>Revenue of<b>~$30.457B</b></li>\n <li>Gross Margin of 83.7%</li>\n <li>OpEx of $10.17B</li>\n <li>Tax Rate of 25%</li>\n <li>Share Count (current) of 1.519B</li>\n <li>EPS of<b>$7.57</b></li>\n</ul>\n<p>I have an internal model that I run for the valuation that goes into more depth than just these numbers. That being said, I'm choosing to keep the in-depth model private for now.</p>\n<p>Now, let's choose the multiple. I've been going with a 4% earnings yield, a significant premium to the 10 year bond to reflect the risk-on nature of the asset. Still, 4% EPS yield is a 25x earnings multiple. 25x $7.57 in EPS gets a 2030 exit value of ~$189.17/share.</p>\n<p>Finally, and possibly most importantly, what is the rate at which we discount the 2030 valuation? Interestingly, while the market (growth stocks in particular) has gotten more choppy of late, equity risk premiums have actually trended down. In addition, interest rates, which triggered the drawdown in growth stock valuations have actually been stabilizing lately. All the while, Snap's actual beta has been winding down a bit. I've calculated a discount rate based on a beta of 1.4 (per Infront Analytics) of ~7.5%. So, discounting back by 7.5% per year to YE'2022, we get to a price target of $101.39/share, which I've decided to round down to $100. Therefore, my price target at this time remains $100.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>No stock fully lacks risk. While I believe Snap is a relatively risk-off name, there are some things I want to point out.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>short term valuation remains high</li>\n <li>potential for prolonged IDFA drag</li>\n <li>execution risk</li>\n <li>need to take SMB exposure from the bigger competitors</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The first risk is the most pronounced one. While I believe the valuation is more than warranted where it is, I also acknowledge that at ~16x next year's sales, there isn't much margin for error. If things go awry anywhere in the Snap narrative, the valuation has basically no cushion at this point.</p>\n<p>The next risk is the potential for Apple's iOS changes to have a dragging effect on ARPU over the short to long term. While Snap has done a great job migrating advertisers towards SKAdNetwork, I wouldn't rule anything out yet in terms of ARPU stagnating short-term while advertisers worry about lessened targeting. If IDFA changes do hit Snap's ARPU, then I wouldn't be surprised to see a massive drawdown in the stock, as the valuation (as mentioned earlier) is very high still.</p>\n<p>The third risk is simply execution. Can Snap execute on their vision for years of 50%+ revenue growth? Well, after a few years of solid results in every facet: user growth, monetization, cost controls, etc., I have my faith in management. That being said, if anything goes awry, then take cover.</p>\n<p>And the final risk is an inability to attract SMBs to Snap's advertising platform. Small and medium size businesses are the bread and butter of Facebook's ad revenue. Without high small business exposure, Facebook would not be anywhere close to as big as it is today. Snap has found itself in the difficult position of needing to grab share in these small businesses from Facebook in order to scale revenues. By differentiating their product and giving advertisers access to a coveted demographic, I believe they can take the necessary market share from Facebook to scale into the numbers I model out.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Snap delivered an incredible Q1 report, with great commentary and outlook for Q2 and beyond. The company is a top-tier growth stock with incredible long-term margin potential because of their improving cost structure. The momentum building in Snap's business will eventually be reflected in stock price action. Since it hasn't yet, I continue to rate Snap at Buy with a $100 price target.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Snap: Fundamental Inertia Will Send This Rocket Higher</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSnap: Fundamental Inertia Will Send This Rocket Higher\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-03 16:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4423687-snap-earnings-fundamental-inertia-will-send-this-rocket-higher><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nSNAP delivered its 1Q report on Thursday, April 22nd. The results were impressive to say the least. We saw across the board beats on almost every front.\nSNAP's core monetization engine ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4423687-snap-earnings-fundamental-inertia-will-send-this-rocket-higher\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNAP":"Snap Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4423687-snap-earnings-fundamental-inertia-will-send-this-rocket-higher","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1139118247","content_text":"Summary\n\nSNAP delivered its 1Q report on Thursday, April 22nd. The results were impressive to say the least. We saw across the board beats on almost every front.\nSNAP's core monetization engine remains the Discover part of the platform, the least sticky and least optimal part of the platform long-term for advertisers.\nExpect innovation to unlock advertiser dollars at SNAP. SNAP still has monetization avenues to move towards in: Stories, Maps, AR, Spotlight and more.\nOn top of all this, user growth is showing absolutely no signs of slowing down, a quite promising trend considering the street has never viewed SNAP as the real reopening play that it is.\nReiterating Buy rating. PT remains $100.\n\nPhoto by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nMy Grade of Snap's Q1 Report: A\nSomething I intend to start doing more frequently during earnings season is grading the quarterly reports of the companies I cover. So, we'll start with Snap (NYSE:SNAP). I gave Snap an\"A\"for their 1Q report. Let's break down the print in more detail.\n\nEPS:$0.00 actual vs. -$0.06 expected\nRevenue:$770M actual vs. $743.8M expected\nDAUs:280M actual vs. 274.62M expected\nARPU:$2.74 actual vs. $2.72 expected\nQ2 Rev. Guide:$830M (midpoint) actual vs. $826.99M expected\n\nThese are just the high level numbers, I'll be going more in-depth later on. That said, what a quarter. When Snap reported its 4Q results a few months ago, investors were spooked when their adjusted EBITDA guide came up short of expectations. The company explained their motivations to achieve critical mass of the Spotlight product, which would be quite costly. Fast forward to now, and we see that while Snap did spend big on Spotlight, they were able to still get to breakeven. Talk about underpromising and overdelivering. This beat was likely the most impressive part of Snap's report as it proved that the company could take strides towards investing in themselves while also being fiscally responsible.\nThe second best part of this quarter was likely the stunning engagement the platform saw. Snap originally guided ~275 million DAUs for Q1 when they printed their Q4 numbers. This guidance seemed to support the narrative that Snap was witnessing somewhat of a deceleration in user growth as the world economy opened back up. This Q1 report shows quite the opposite trend. Snap added 15 million users sequentially in Q1, versus the 16 million added in Q4. Snap isn't really slowing down on the user addition in spite of the ongoing reopening. All major geographies grew sequentially (North America, Europe, Rest of World) and Android became the predominant Snapchat operating system for the first time in company history.\nSnap's ARPU also beat expectations narrowly as Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) IDFA operating system changes were pushed into Q2. While this is a risk (more on that later), it didn't materialize in Q1, which allowed for some upside to slightly depressed expectations.\nAnd finally, Snap delivered slightly better than expected revenue guidance in Q2. Something to note is that over the last several quarters, Snap appears to have placed deliberately conservative guidance, where they continuously blow out the top-end of their guidance. This trend of underpromising and overdelivering has led to large beats relative to expectations. This is why in spite of the small nature of the beat on Q2 revenue guidance, it's important we look at the top end of the $820-840M revenue guidance as therealbar.\nOverall, Snap just didn't miss a beat this quarter. While it wasn't necessarily a blockbuster quarter, they beat on every single level, with some relatively large beats (EPS and DAU) that drove sentiment coming out of the report. Overall, I'm giving this quarter a grade of an\"A\".\nConference Call Breakdown\nWithout further ado, let's dive straight into Snap's Q1 earnings call. To be clear, I'm not going to go over every point, just the points that stuck out to me personally and deemed incredibly relevant to analysis of the business.\n\nWe launched Spotlight in India, Mexico, and Brazil during Q1, and are now live in over a dozen countries, reaching more than 125 million monthly active users on Spotlight in March. - Evan Spiegel, CEO\n\nThe key takeaway from this remark is simple: Snapchat's high spending levels to build out critical mass have led to ever-increasing levels of engagement on the Spotlight section of the platform. Last quarter, the number was 100 million MAUs. Now in Q1 we're already at 125 million. Spotlight is taking off.\n\nWe grew revenue 66 % year-over-year to $770 million, grew daily active users 22% year-over-year to 280 million, and generated $126 million in free cash flow. - Evan Spiegel, CEO\n\nThis note is less important, but it highlights how strong Snap has turned around. 66% revenue growth against a normal Q1 comp is downright insane. This would put Snap in the top tier of high valuation/high growth software stocks. In addition, Snap, for the first time in the company's history, generated cash rather than burning it. This shows that Snap can be both a high growth name, and a fiscally responsible company pushing towards profitability. $126 million in FCF definitely doesn't hurt the story here.\n\nMore advertisers were active on our platform than ever as our active advertiser base approximately doubled year-over-year in Q1. We have a large opportunity to gain share of the global digital ad market, which is $340 billion and growing. - Jeremi Gorman\n\nAny good software stock (more on this later) needs to have a large addressable market. Management nails that here by mentioning that (a.) they have a massive $340 billion market, and that (b.) they're making inroads on taking share of that market, with advertisers more thandoublingy/y.\n\nThe fact that these changes are coming later than we anticipated has provided additional time to adopt Apple's SKAdNetwork and begin implementing and testing with our partners. Advertisers that represent a majority of our direct response advertising revenue have successfully implemented SKAdnetwork for their Snap campaigns. - Jeremi Gorman\n\nOne of the biggest headline risks to the Snap bull case has been the coming IDFA changes made by Apple that are set to roll out this quarter. Essentially, Apple is tweaking its iOS mobile operating system to allow users to have more control over where the data goes and who collects it. This change is expected to have a negative impact on ad relevance and targeting. Fortunately, Snap seems to be working through any potential headwinds with advertisers right now, prior to the changes occurring. This is calming for me as it assuages any temporary fears I have over IDFA changes being a material headwind to revenue.\n\nAs indicated during our recent Investor Day, we are accelerating our investments in sales and sales support beyond North America in 2021 in order to capture our global ARPU opportunity faster in the years ahead. Average eCPM increased 67% year-over-year in Q1. Rising eCPM relative to the prior year is driven by a combination of improved optimization capabilities within our auction, a mix shift toward relatively higher eCPM products such as commercials, as well as a mix shift toward relatively higher eCPM regions such as North America.\n\n\nWhile our topline has benefited from year-over-year growth in eCPM in recent quarters, the cost per action for our advertising partners declined sequentially for three of our top four goal-based bidding objectives in Q1, as we continue to enhance our optimization capabilities in order to use our inventory more efficiently. Consequently, we believe that we will be able to deliver attractive returns on ad spend to our advertising partners as eCPM grows over the long term.\n\n\nIn addition, the ongoing growth of our community and strong engagement in areas of our application that we have not yet begun to monetize, provide significant room to expand our inventory and expand our long-term ARPU opportunity over time. - Derek Andersen\n\nNow this is a long segment from the call but try to bear with me here. If you haven't seen my prior breakdown of Snap, clickherefor my analysis of Snap's Investor Day among other things. The first thing to point out in this comment is North America, the geography that has been driving monetization growth, will merely be the first place Snap gets its feet wet with its go to market strategy. Europe and ROW are next. Once we see North America begin to stall (which we shouldn't see for a while), Snap will be ready to scale internationally. The next thing management points out is that in spite of rising eCPMs that have enabled robust ARPU and overall revenue growth, the internal cost to advertise has actually gottenmoreefficient for advertisers. Snap's believes this win-win combo will continue long term. In addition, untapped parts of the Snapchat product (think Maps, Communication, and Spotlight) will drive eCPMs higher and expand the company's ARPU long-term.\n\nWe continue to make significant progress against our goal of driving down our underlying infrastructure unit costs over time. In Q1, our infrastructure costs per DAU benefited from several factors, with the most significant being efficiency improvements delivered by our engineering teams, including the re-architecture of our messaging platform that we mentioned during our recent Investor Day. In addition, we continued to benefit in Q1 from negotiated rate improvements for several of our cloud services.\n\n\nLastly, the acceleration in growth of our community has been a modest benefit to infrastructure cost per DAU in recent quarters as new users tend to have lower initial marginal cloud infrastructure costs relative to longer tenured Snapchatters. These factors combined to deliver the lowest infrastructure costs per DAU we have reported as a public company at just $0.62 in Q1, down from $0.69 in the prior quarter and $0.71 in the prior year.\n\n\nOn the content side, we continue to invest to support the launch of Spotlight in Q1. And this contributed approximately $90 million to our cost of revenue in the quarter, representing a 12 percentage point headwind to gross margin expansion in the quarter. We are highly encouraged by the early returns from our investments in Spotlight, with this new platform reaching over 125 million monthly active users in March. While it is still very early for this new platform, we are excited about the potential for Spotlight to further expand our monetization opportunity in the future. - Derek Andersen\n\nAgain, another long quote so bear with me here. First of all, Snap's gross margin trend is proof that headline numbers are just that. Headline numbers. We have to look under the hood at what Snap is really doing with gross margins. Infrastructure costs, since inception, have been the bread and butter of Snap's gross costs. While gross margin expansion has tailed off recently (because of Spotlight, more on that later), it isn't because users are getting too expensive to onboard or keep on platform. Snap's engineering team has made great progress in lowering internal hosting and infrastructure costs with infrastructure expense per DAU down ~13% Y/Y. Essentially, what this means is Snapchat has gotten very efficient infrastructure spending and this reduction in infrastructure spend has been (and will be) a tailwind for gross margins going forward. Remember how gross margins were only up ~100bps y/y? Well, backing out Spotlight expenses (which will be phased out over time), Snap's gross margins were actually closer to ~60% in Q1. This just goes to show Snap's newfound efficiency in innovating while staying fiscally disciplined. This expenditure has paid off, with 125 million MAUs on Spotlightalreadyand plenty of room for future monetization.\n\nAs we look forward to Q2, we estimate that DAU will grow at a rate consistent with the prior quarter, or approximately 22% year-over-year to reach $290 million in Q2. On the monetization side, we are cautiously optimistic that the operating environment will continue to improve. Our guidance range is for revenue of $820 million to $840 million, implying year-over-year revenue growth of approximately 80% to 85% in Q2. This range reflects our best current estimate of the potential impact of anticipated disruptions associated with the iOS platform changes.\n\n\nIt is not clear yet what the longer-term impact of the iOS platform changes may be for the top line momentum of our business. And this may not be clear until several months or more after the changes are implemented. Until then, we will remain focused on helping our partners navigate these changes while optimizing return on ad spend across our advertising products and platform.\n\n\nOn the expense side in Q2, we intend to continue to invest in the long-term growth of our business, and we'll continue to support the launch of Spotlight with our $1 million per day creator fund in order to build on the momentum we are seeing with this exciting new platform. While we see a path to adjusted EBITDA breakeven in Q2, we are also cognizant that there are a number of cost drivers for our business, including travel and event-related costs that have been lower over the past year due to COVID-related restrictions. It is likely that these activities will begin to resume in the coming months as restrictions ease and that the related costs will begin to return to our cost structure as a result. Given this, our guidance range is for adjusted EBITDA to be between negative $20 million and breakeven for Q2. - Derek Andersen\n\nOkay so here is the guidance. 80-85% revenue growth y/y. Granted this is against a relatively weak Q2 comp. Nevertheless, this level of growth with scaling cost efficiency is downright impressive. Snap anticipates a slight slowdown in net sequential user adds from ~15 million to ~10 million. To be expected heading into easing lockdowns. In addition, in spite of the continued high spending on Spotlight, Snap is guiding very nicely for its EBITDA trajectory. iOS changes remain a short to medium term risk. And while it is a risk, it is also factored into the guide. If this risk doesn't materialize, I would fully expect Snap to take out the top end of its revenue guidance.\nOne thing I would like to acknowledge here now that I've gone through my biggest points in the prepared remarks is this: I'm not touching on every single thing in this call. Management gives even more color. \n\nSo it was more difficult to kind of perfectly execute this verticalization and specialist in terms of different vertical, measurement specialists or marketing specialists or communication specialists by vertical. But I think what's so exciting about the opportunity is that we now know the playbook. You're seeing it show up in our strong results in North America. And so we are going to replicate it in Europe and the rest of the world and those investments we were talking about to accelerate our growth internationally. - Jeremi Gorman\n\nOne of the key drivers of Snap's results when it comes to ARPU growth in the North American geography has been fleshing out an effective sales team. If you paid close attention to the 1Q print, you might have noticed that ARPU was actually negative y/y in the ROW segment. This has caused a bit of concern, though in this case it is likely because ARPU is a mostly output metric in Snap's developing markets. Nevertheless, Snap now knows the gameplan to effectively scaling up the monetization of their platform domestically. They can begin to implement those types of investments internationally and scale monetization there too.\n\nBut if you get into the second half, those comps are going to look a little bit more like what we saw in Q1. So obviously, they're a little tougher. We feel good about the results we put up in Q1 on relatively tougher comps. - Derek Andersen\n\nThis comment from management relates to a question asked by an analyst on tougher 2H comps. Snap is saying that the back half comps are probably going to look a lot like the Q1 comps. These comps will be a little more difficult than the Q2 comp, since Q2'20 was damaged by Covid's effect on the ad industry. That said, this comment could be insinuating that they are anticipating similar growth in 2H as they saw in Q1.\n\nRight now, what we're really focused on is making the investments in our sales and sales support to build on the momentum. We like what we're seeing on the active advertiser growth. We're liking what we see on the upfront commitments and we're focused on delivering the return on ad spend, investing in our optimization capabilities so that we can deliver return on ad spend for those advertising partners just to continue to build on the momentum we're seeing.\n\n\nLook, while we're excited about the momentum that we're seeing there on the Spotlight side, it's early there. We're really excited about the product and the momentum. In terms of the need to open that up to advertising, I think we continue to be more demand constrained than supply constrained. So, we're going to continue to focus on improving the experience for our Snapchatter community and for creators in the near term, and we've got lots of room to grow the top line in the areas that we're already monetizing today over the near term. Thanks for the question. - Derek Andersen\n\nAgain, another long blurb, but let's break it down. Snap is prioritizing making investments in its sales team to continue building up growth in their advertiser count. This strategy of investing in the sales team has been working in terms of bringing new advertisers in and increasing advertiser commitments. Then, turning to Spotlight, we get a little bit of discouraging/bearish commentary. While management loves the engagement they are seeing on the Spotlight section of the platform, investors should expect Snap to play the long game with this one. Spotlight is definitely intriguing, but do not expect near-term boosts in monetization from this part of the platform. Spotlight will take time to bear any real fruit.\n\nWe are really focused on helping our advertisers make the transition to the best possible measurement and optimization tools smoothly. The change happened later than we expected, which gave us a lot of time to prepare and SKAdNetwork is one part of that. So, we're really pleased to see that advertisers that represent the majority of our direct response revenue have implemented it so far. But we know that there's a lot of work to be done to transition smoothly. - Derek Andersen\n\nAgain, one of Snap's biggest headline risks has been updating their tracking, targeting, and optimization for the IDFA-adjusted era. Snap has had time to work with advertising partners to implement the new tools given to them (by Apple) and work through any air pockets in ad pricing. While we haven't seen these changes come fully into effect yet, meaning there is still an element of uncertainty there, Snap has worked to make the platform advertiser-friendly, and everything seems fine right now.\nOverall it was very hard to not like what Snap had to say this quarter. Everything exceeded expectations, and some IDFA worries were pushed aside, or at least eased. This was a great quarter.\nLong-Term Narrative: Numerous Paths To Hypergrowth and Mega Margins\nShort-term, the story looks great. But let's look at the long-term narrative. That's what's most important after all.\n\nI've broken down the long-term bull case on Snap many times during my tenure here atSeeking Alpha. I've covered the company publicly and privately since its IPO in March of 2017. I've been long, short, and everything in between. I can tell you with confidence, that the narrative has never looked as strong with Snap fundamentally as it does right now.\nThe narrative is years of ~50%+ revenue growth to come, high margins, fiscal responsibility, and eventually, high levels of profitability. Let me break out why this narrative is so plausible, and why the stock, even at today's levels, is enticing.\nLooking At Snap Like a Software Stock\nIn order to better understand the value in Snap, we should look at the business like a SaaS (software as a service) stock. Excluding the last couple of months, SaaS has been one of the biggest outperforming subsectors of the overall tech sector. Software stocks have garnered the highest multiples and frothiest valuations in the world and it can all be boiled down to these points:\n\nTAM (total addressable market)\nA disruptive and leading product (or go to market strategy)\nNumerous levers for high, sustained growth\nHigh long-term margin profile\nRule of 40 (more on that in a bit)\nnarrative optionality (bonus points)\n\nNow, there have been some duds in the software business. That said, the valuations being afforded to software stocks that check these five boxes are among the highest on Wall Street. Just look here.\nData by YCharts\nThese are just a few names in a huge basket of highly valued software stocks that trade at nosebleed valuations. Why do investors hand out such high valuations? It's simple. These companies check all the aforementioned boxes. Snap is no different. Where are they trading though?\nData by YCharts\nThey're trading like a name that is at the middle of this growth pack, not at the front of it. I'm going to make the case for Snap to be at the front of this pack, or at least towards the front. Let's go through the five points (and the sixth bonus) to determine if Snap belongs towards the head, rather than the tail.\nThe first point is TAM. TAM is an acronym for total addressable market. Essentially, a business' TAM is its long-term market opportunity. Snap's TAM is massive, and quickly growing at that. Snap's TAM is among the largest out of all the aforementioned \"software\" stocks. Snap estimates that the global digital advertising market did ~$339 billion in business last year, and is expected to scale towards ~$543 billion by 2024. So, not only is Snap operating in amassivemarket, they're operating in a dynamic market. A market that in and of itself is growing rapidly. Some TAMs are relatively static. Digital advertising is not so. So, Snap checks the first box of having a massive TAM.\nThe second point is having a disruptive product. Having a large market is great, but if you can't capture meaningful market share with a great product, then the size of said market is irrelevant. Fortunately for Snap, they have a great product. The product that they are selling, is the attention span and purchasing decisions of the most influential purchasers in the world: Gen Z and Millennials. Snap has a lock on these users. Why? Because through years of R&D spend and product rollout, Snap has built an ecosystem that is worth more than any one of the app's features. If Facebook copies a key part of Snap's ecosystem, it doesn't really matter anymore. Snap has the loyalty of its users now. More importantly however, they have carved out a niche in advertising. From an ad platform sophistication standpoint, Snap is on par with the top ad platforms (see slide 33), and they continue to invest in innovative ad formats, giving advertisers choice. Lenses, Commercials, Stories, Spotlight. These are all products that Snap will begin advertising against, giving advertisers different choices as to how they want to reach this coveted demographic. Snap has built out a differentiating product for advertisers, now they just need to iterate on it to see the fruits of their labors come out at scale. Snap checks this box exceptionally well.\nThe third point is having numerous growth levers. If the growth runs \"dry\" so to speak in one part, can Snap quickly transition to juicing growth with another aspect of their business? Yes, they absolutely could. You know, the interesting thing is, Snap's Investor Day commentary of numerous years of 50%+ revenue growth is on their current ad product pipeline. This pipeline is mostly their Commercials product on the Discover page and Stories ads. At least, that seems to be the bread and butter of their ad business. Snap hasn't fully tapped into either of these products fully yet, and yet they are able to drive years of 50%+ revenue growth alone? That's unreal, and considering the fact that Snap also has Snap Map, Spotlight, and AR lens ads/experiences, they have more than enough levers to drive growth higher.\n\nFourth is margins. When I talk about long-term margins, I mean both gross margins and operating margins. With gross margins, I can see Snap between 75-90% long-term (5yrs+). Why? The bulk of their long-term COGS will likely come from infrastructure expenses (i.e. hosting and cloud contracts with GCP and AWS). Hosting costs go up not with ad pricing/ARPU, but with engagement. The more a user engages with an app, then theoretically, the more it costs to host, and the more they are charged on their cloud bill. The thing is, if Snap can seriously crank up ARPU, then COGS would fall in line, because COGS doesn't really correlate with ARPU. This could enable incredibly high margins as infrastructure spend stabilizes while ARPU skyrockets. Some may point out Snap's rising content costs when it comes to Spotlight. The important thing to note is, while Snap is investing heavily upfront to develop a critical mass of engagement, once the ball really starts rolling, they can pull back on spend. Why? Because from then on engagement on the Spotlight part of the platform will be organic.\nNow when it comes to operating margins, I expect a premium there as well. Snap will always be a big SG&A spender and R&D spender. Using stock based compensation is a great tool for morale and building the business, especially when it comes to Snap trying to scale its global sales team. This sales team is critical to onboarding new international advertisers and (the holy grail) small business advertisers. Expect SG&A to continue rising over the coming years as Snap expands its attack opportunity. R&D is critical as well. R&D is what spurs innovation, which is what keeps the platform sticky for both users and advertisers. In social media, retention and growth are the key. R&D is necessary to keep both. That being said, I still expect best in class operating margins relative to other social media platforms. Why? Snap lacks content moderation expenses. You see, the thing that has been weighing on the margins of Facebook and Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) in particular has been high expenses relating to moderating content on platform. Snapchat, for the most part, is free of this content. They don't have to worry about the costs associated with building a moderation team or building out content moderation algorithms. This is huge, as the key reason for Facebook's contracting margins has been content moderation. Snap, in lacking these expenses, has an opportunity for even larger margins.\nThe fifth point, tying it all together, is the Rule of 40. For seasoned software investors, the Rule of 40 is a key tool in evaluating how much slack to cut a stock valuation-wise. If you don't know what it is, don't worry I'll explain. The Rule of 40 is simple: Take your revenue growth rate and add it to your cash flow margin (or profit margin). If this net number is above 40%, then investors generally tend to turn a blind eye or at least cut the company some slack valuation wise. Let's run a hypothetical example just so we understand better.\nCompany A has revenue growth of 25%, and a cash flow margin of 5%. Combined, Company A's rev. growth + cf margin is 30%, which is less than the Rule of 40.\nLet's apply this to Snap's numbers as of Q1. Snap saw revenue growth of 66% Y/Y against a fair comp. Their free cash flow margin in Q1 was ~16%. This means Snap more thandoublesthe rule, coming in at 82%, putting them in the top echelon of growth software names.\nAnd finally, the cherry on top, is Snap's optionality. Snap has massive room to expand in the advertising vertical alone, but wait, there's more. On top of the enormous upside of Snap's advertising business, the company has left room for aggressive expansion elsewhere. Whether it be gaming, eCommerce, or augmented reality hardware, Snap has just begun to open doors to more potential markets to juice up long-term growth.\nWith all this said, I am fine with paying almost any multiple on this company's stock because of all the things it has going for it.\nValuation\nThis brings us to my formal valuation of the stock. I value Snap by doing a 2030 buildout of the business, assignment of a fair multiple, and discounting back with WACC (weighted average cost of capital). Let's start with the underlying business assumptions:\n\nDAUs of ~550M\nARPU of $55.38/DAU\nRevenue of~$30.457B\nGross Margin of 83.7%\nOpEx of $10.17B\nTax Rate of 25%\nShare Count (current) of 1.519B\nEPS of$7.57\n\nI have an internal model that I run for the valuation that goes into more depth than just these numbers. That being said, I'm choosing to keep the in-depth model private for now.\nNow, let's choose the multiple. I've been going with a 4% earnings yield, a significant premium to the 10 year bond to reflect the risk-on nature of the asset. Still, 4% EPS yield is a 25x earnings multiple. 25x $7.57 in EPS gets a 2030 exit value of ~$189.17/share.\nFinally, and possibly most importantly, what is the rate at which we discount the 2030 valuation? Interestingly, while the market (growth stocks in particular) has gotten more choppy of late, equity risk premiums have actually trended down. In addition, interest rates, which triggered the drawdown in growth stock valuations have actually been stabilizing lately. All the while, Snap's actual beta has been winding down a bit. I've calculated a discount rate based on a beta of 1.4 (per Infront Analytics) of ~7.5%. So, discounting back by 7.5% per year to YE'2022, we get to a price target of $101.39/share, which I've decided to round down to $100. Therefore, my price target at this time remains $100.\nRisks\nNo stock fully lacks risk. While I believe Snap is a relatively risk-off name, there are some things I want to point out.\n\nshort term valuation remains high\npotential for prolonged IDFA drag\nexecution risk\nneed to take SMB exposure from the bigger competitors\n\nThe first risk is the most pronounced one. While I believe the valuation is more than warranted where it is, I also acknowledge that at ~16x next year's sales, there isn't much margin for error. If things go awry anywhere in the Snap narrative, the valuation has basically no cushion at this point.\nThe next risk is the potential for Apple's iOS changes to have a dragging effect on ARPU over the short to long term. While Snap has done a great job migrating advertisers towards SKAdNetwork, I wouldn't rule anything out yet in terms of ARPU stagnating short-term while advertisers worry about lessened targeting. If IDFA changes do hit Snap's ARPU, then I wouldn't be surprised to see a massive drawdown in the stock, as the valuation (as mentioned earlier) is very high still.\nThe third risk is simply execution. Can Snap execute on their vision for years of 50%+ revenue growth? Well, after a few years of solid results in every facet: user growth, monetization, cost controls, etc., I have my faith in management. That being said, if anything goes awry, then take cover.\nAnd the final risk is an inability to attract SMBs to Snap's advertising platform. Small and medium size businesses are the bread and butter of Facebook's ad revenue. Without high small business exposure, Facebook would not be anywhere close to as big as it is today. Snap has found itself in the difficult position of needing to grab share in these small businesses from Facebook in order to scale revenues. By differentiating their product and giving advertisers access to a coveted demographic, I believe they can take the necessary market share from Facebook to scale into the numbers I model out.\nConclusion\nSnap delivered an incredible Q1 report, with great commentary and outlook for Q2 and beyond. The company is a top-tier growth stock with incredible long-term margin potential because of their improving cost structure. The momentum building in Snap's business will eventually be reflected in stock price action. Since it hasn't yet, I continue to rate Snap at Buy with a $100 price target.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":83,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}