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T3M1N4T0R
2021-04-16
Based on existing trend, I think Apple will likely only double in 3 years.
Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?
T3M1N4T0R
2021-04-16
I think tesla will still continue to reach newer highs!
抱歉，原内容已删除
T3M1N4T0R
2021-04-16
Wow!
抱歉，原内容已删除
T3M1N4T0R
2021-04-16
Interesting read!
抱歉，原内容已删除
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For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial perfo","content":"<p>Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?</p>\n<p>Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?</p>\n<p>Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\"><span>Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.</span></p>\n<p><b>First piece of the puzzle: valuation</b></p>\n<p>There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.</p>\n<p>P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.</p>\n<p>The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\"><span>Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.</span></p>\n<p>There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li>\n <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li>\n <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li>\n <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li>\n</ul>\n<p>That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.</p>\n<p><b>Second piece of the puzzle: earnings</b></p>\n<p>Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.</p>\n<p>According to our friends at Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.</p>\n<p>Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li>\n <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.</p>\n<p>This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.</p>\n<p>Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li>\n <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li>\n <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li>\n <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li>\n</ul>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-16 13:25 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years><strong>TheStreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?\nApple stockhas ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142633815","content_text":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?\nApple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?\nToday, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.\nFigure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.\nFirst piece of the puzzle: valuation\nThere are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.\nP/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.\nThe graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.\nFigure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.\nThere are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:\n\nFuture growth opportunities have expanded with the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car\nApple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s\nServices, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business\nInterest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples\n\nThat said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.\nSecond piece of the puzzle: earnings\nValuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.\nAccording to our friends at Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.\nNow, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:\n\nThe company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024\nThe P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times\n\nTherefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.\nThis is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.\nTherefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:\n\nAn outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;\nA sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;\nAggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.\nAcceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":370102590,"gmtCreate":1618559461210,"gmtModify":1634292084968,"author":{"id":"3581651431761930","authorId":"3581651431761930","authorIdStr":"3581651431761930","name":"T3M1N4T0R","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581651431761930"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I think tesla will still continue to reach newer highs!","listText":"I think tesla will still continue to reach newer highs!","text":"I think tesla will still continue to reach newer highs!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370102590","repostId":"1153076451","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":76,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":370102934,"gmtCreate":1618559400328,"gmtModify":1634292085571,"author":{"id":"3581651431761930","authorId":"3581651431761930","authorIdStr":"3581651431761930","name":"T3M1N4T0R","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581651431761930"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow!","listText":"Wow!","text":"Wow!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370102934","repostId":"1113132904","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":28,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":370106345,"gmtCreate":1618559355787,"gmtModify":1634292086396,"author":{"id":"3581651431761930","authorId":"3581651431761930","authorIdStr":"3581651431761930","name":"T3M1N4T0R","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581651431761930"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting read!","listText":"Interesting read!","text":"Interesting read!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370106345","repostId":"2127283686","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":38,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":370102731,"gmtCreate":1618559504123,"gmtModify":1634292084728,"author":{"id":"3581651431761930","authorId":"3581651431761930","authorIdStr":"3581651431761930","name":"T3M1N4T0R","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581651431761930"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Based on existing trend, I think Apple will likely only double in 3 years.","listText":"Based on existing trend, I think Apple will likely only double in 3 years.","text":"Based on existing trend, I think Apple will likely only double in 3 years.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370102731","repostId":"1142633815","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142633815","pubTimestamp":1618550753,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142633815?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 13:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142633815","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial perfo","content":"<p>Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?</p>\n<p>Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?</p>\n<p>Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\"><span>Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.</span></p>\n<p><b>First piece of the puzzle: valuation</b></p>\n<p>There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.</p>\n<p>P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.</p>\n<p>The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\"><span>Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.</span></p>\n<p>There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li>\n <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li>\n <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li>\n <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li>\n</ul>\n<p>That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.</p>\n<p><b>Second piece of the puzzle: earnings</b></p>\n<p>Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.</p>\n<p>According to our friends at Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.</p>\n<p>Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li>\n <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.</p>\n<p>This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.</p>\n<p>Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li>\n <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li>\n <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li>\n <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li>\n</ul>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-16 13:25 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years><strong>TheStreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?\nApple stockhas ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142633815","content_text":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?\nApple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?\nToday, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.\nFigure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.\nFirst piece of the puzzle: valuation\nThere are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.\nP/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.\nThe graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.\nFigure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.\nThere are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:\n\nFuture growth opportunities have expanded with the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car\nApple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s\nServices, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business\nInterest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples\n\nThat said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.\nSecond piece of the puzzle: earnings\nValuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.\nAccording to our friends at Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.\nNow, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:\n\nThe company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024\nThe P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times\n\nTherefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.\nThis is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.\nTherefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:\n\nAn outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;\nA sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;\nAggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.\nAcceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":370102934,"gmtCreate":1618559400328,"gmtModify":1634292085571,"author":{"id":"3581651431761930","authorId":"3581651431761930","authorIdStr":"3581651431761930","name":"T3M1N4T0R","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581651431761930"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow!","listText":"Wow!","text":"Wow!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370102934","repostId":"1113132904","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113132904","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1618557385,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1113132904?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 15:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Grab considering secondary Singapore listing after U.S. SPAC merger - sources","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113132904","media":"Reuters","summary":"Grab Holdings, Southeast Asia's ride-hailing to delivery giant, is considering a secondary listing i","content":"<p>Grab Holdings, Southeast Asia's ride-hailing to delivery giant, is considering a secondary listing in its home market of Singapore after completing a Nasdaq listing via a $40 billion SPAC merger, three sources familiar with the matter said.</p><p>Listing on Singapore Exchange would enable Grab to have an investor base close to where its regional business is based, the people said, potentially offering its customers, drivers and merchant partners easier access to trade its shares.</p><p>Grab, a household name across Southeast Asia, is in the early stages of considering a secondary listing in the city-state, said the sources, who declined to be identified as they were not authorised to speak about the matter.</p><p>The potential Singapore listing plans come after Grab this week agreed a $40 billion merger with Altimeter Growth Corp., a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), making this the world's biggest SPAC deal.</p><p>Grab, which began as a ride-hailing business in 2012, now operates in eight countries and more than 400 cities and has expanded into food and grocery deliveries, as well as digital payments. Last year, it won a digital banking licence in Singapore.</p><p>It wasn't clear how much Grab might aim to raise in any secondary listing, with financial terms and timetable still in the early stages of consideration, the sources said.</p><p>The company with the top valuation on the Singapore bourse is bank DBS Group Ltd(DBSM.SI), currently worth about S$74 billion ($55.4 billion) by capitalisation.</p><p>Grab and SGX declined to comment on the listing plans.</p><p>One of the sources said that while Grab has sufficient cash reserves and could end up raising only a small amount on SGX, a listing would mark a big win for the exchange.</p><p>SGX has mainly only seen large IPOs from real estate investment trusts. Hindered by a small base of retail investors in the city-state, it has struggled with low liquidity and valuations, forcing a spate of delistings and also discouraging big-ticket listings from regional high-growth companies.</p><p>The Hong Kong bourse, however, has benefited from diplomatic and political tensions between the United States and China that have led many Chinese firms to seek secondary listings in Hong Kong. Global fund managers have also been swapping China holdings from Wall Street to Hong Kong.</p><p>SGX has taken many steps to try to bulk up its stock market in recent years, and under Chief Executive Loh Boon Chye, who was appointed six years ago, it has acquired firms to transform itself into a multi-asset exchange.</p><p>Currently, there are 28 companies with a secondary listing on SGX, including Malaysia's IHH Healthcare Bhd(IHHH.KL)and Top Glove Corp Bhd and Hong Kong conglomerate Jardine Matheson Holdings.</p><p>Last year, AMTD International became the first NYSE-listed firm to list on SGX. It also became the first to take advantage of a dual-class share structure in Singapore.</p><p>For Grab, as part of the SPAC merger, it's raising $4 billion from global investors including BlackRock, Temasek Holdings, Fidelity International, Malaysia's Permodalan Nasional Bhd and some of Indonesia's richest family groups.</p><p>($1 = 1.3351 Singapore dollars)</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Grab considering secondary Singapore listing after U.S. SPAC merger - sources</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGrab considering secondary Singapore listing after U.S. SPAC merger - sources\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-16 15:16</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Grab Holdings, Southeast Asia's ride-hailing to delivery giant, is considering a secondary listing in its home market of Singapore after completing a Nasdaq listing via a $40 billion SPAC merger, three sources familiar with the matter said.</p><p>Listing on Singapore Exchange would enable Grab to have an investor base close to where its regional business is based, the people said, potentially offering its customers, drivers and merchant partners easier access to trade its shares.</p><p>Grab, a household name across Southeast Asia, is in the early stages of considering a secondary listing in the city-state, said the sources, who declined to be identified as they were not authorised to speak about the matter.</p><p>The potential Singapore listing plans come after Grab this week agreed a $40 billion merger with Altimeter Growth Corp., a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), making this the world's biggest SPAC deal.</p><p>Grab, which began as a ride-hailing business in 2012, now operates in eight countries and more than 400 cities and has expanded into food and grocery deliveries, as well as digital payments. Last year, it won a digital banking licence in Singapore.</p><p>It wasn't clear how much Grab might aim to raise in any secondary listing, with financial terms and timetable still in the early stages of consideration, the sources said.</p><p>The company with the top valuation on the Singapore bourse is bank DBS Group Ltd(DBSM.SI), currently worth about S$74 billion ($55.4 billion) by capitalisation.</p><p>Grab and SGX declined to comment on the listing plans.</p><p>One of the sources said that while Grab has sufficient cash reserves and could end up raising only a small amount on SGX, a listing would mark a big win for the exchange.</p><p>SGX has mainly only seen large IPOs from real estate investment trusts. Hindered by a small base of retail investors in the city-state, it has struggled with low liquidity and valuations, forcing a spate of delistings and also discouraging big-ticket listings from regional high-growth companies.</p><p>The Hong Kong bourse, however, has benefited from diplomatic and political tensions between the United States and China that have led many Chinese firms to seek secondary listings in Hong Kong. Global fund managers have also been swapping China holdings from Wall Street to Hong Kong.</p><p>SGX has taken many steps to try to bulk up its stock market in recent years, and under Chief Executive Loh Boon Chye, who was appointed six years ago, it has acquired firms to transform itself into a multi-asset exchange.</p><p>Currently, there are 28 companies with a secondary listing on SGX, including Malaysia's IHH Healthcare Bhd(IHHH.KL)and Top Glove Corp Bhd and Hong Kong conglomerate Jardine Matheson Holdings.</p><p>Last year, AMTD International became the first NYSE-listed firm to list on SGX. It also became the first to take advantage of a dual-class share structure in Singapore.</p><p>For Grab, as part of the SPAC merger, it's raising $4 billion from global investors including BlackRock, Temasek Holdings, Fidelity International, Malaysia's Permodalan Nasional Bhd and some of Indonesia's richest family groups.</p><p>($1 = 1.3351 Singapore dollars)</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BLK":"贝莱德","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","SFTBY":"软银集团","BABA":"阿里巴巴","UBER":"优步"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113132904","content_text":"Grab Holdings, Southeast Asia's ride-hailing to delivery giant, is considering a secondary listing in its home market of Singapore after completing a Nasdaq listing via a $40 billion SPAC merger, three sources familiar with the matter said.Listing on Singapore Exchange would enable Grab to have an investor base close to where its regional business is based, the people said, potentially offering its customers, drivers and merchant partners easier access to trade its shares.Grab, a household name across Southeast Asia, is in the early stages of considering a secondary listing in the city-state, said the sources, who declined to be identified as they were not authorised to speak about the matter.The potential Singapore listing plans come after Grab this week agreed a $40 billion merger with Altimeter Growth Corp., a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), making this the world's biggest SPAC deal.Grab, which began as a ride-hailing business in 2012, now operates in eight countries and more than 400 cities and has expanded into food and grocery deliveries, as well as digital payments. Last year, it won a digital banking licence in Singapore.It wasn't clear how much Grab might aim to raise in any secondary listing, with financial terms and timetable still in the early stages of consideration, the sources said.The company with the top valuation on the Singapore bourse is bank DBS Group Ltd(DBSM.SI), currently worth about S$74 billion ($55.4 billion) by capitalisation.Grab and SGX declined to comment on the listing plans.One of the sources said that while Grab has sufficient cash reserves and could end up raising only a small amount on SGX, a listing would mark a big win for the exchange.SGX has mainly only seen large IPOs from real estate investment trusts. Hindered by a small base of retail investors in the city-state, it has struggled with low liquidity and valuations, forcing a spate of delistings and also discouraging big-ticket listings from regional high-growth companies.The Hong Kong bourse, however, has benefited from diplomatic and political tensions between the United States and China that have led many Chinese firms to seek secondary listings in Hong Kong. Global fund managers have also been swapping China holdings from Wall Street to Hong Kong.SGX has taken many steps to try to bulk up its stock market in recent years, and under Chief Executive Loh Boon Chye, who was appointed six years ago, it has acquired firms to transform itself into a multi-asset exchange.Currently, there are 28 companies with a secondary listing on SGX, including Malaysia's IHH Healthcare Bhd(IHHH.KL)and Top Glove Corp Bhd and Hong Kong conglomerate Jardine Matheson Holdings.Last year, AMTD International became the first NYSE-listed firm to list on SGX. It also became the first to take advantage of a dual-class share structure in Singapore.For Grab, as part of the SPAC merger, it's raising $4 billion from global investors including BlackRock, Temasek Holdings, Fidelity International, Malaysia's Permodalan Nasional Bhd and some of Indonesia's richest family groups.($1 = 1.3351 Singapore dollars)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":28,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":370106345,"gmtCreate":1618559355787,"gmtModify":1634292086396,"author":{"id":"3581651431761930","authorId":"3581651431761930","authorIdStr":"3581651431761930","name":"T3M1N4T0R","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581651431761930"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting read!","listText":"Interesting read!","text":"Interesting read!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370106345","repostId":"2127283686","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2127283686","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1618557675,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2127283686?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 15:21","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"China stocks end higher as country's GDP hits record growth","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2127283686","media":"Reuters","summary":"SHANGHAI, April 16 (Reuters) - China stocks ended higher on Friday, as investors cheered robust GDP ","content":"<p>SHANGHAI, April 16 (Reuters) - China stocks ended higher on Friday, as investors cheered robust GDP growth recorded in the first quarter, though lingering worries over policy tightening by Beijing pushed equities to post a weekly loss.</p><p>The blue-chip CSI300 index ended up 0.4% at 4,966.18, while the Shanghai Composite Index added 0.8%to 3,426.62.</p><p>China's economic recovery quickened sharply in the first quarter from a coronavirus-induced slump earlier last year, propelled by stronger demand at home and abroad and continued government support for smaller firms.</p><p>The country's GDP jumped a record 18.3% in the first quarter from a year earlier, official data showed on Friday, slower than the 19% forecast by economists in a Reuters poll, and following 6.5% growth in the fourth quarter last year.</p><p>\"The GDP data is a bit better than my expectations, while the robust corporate earnings for the year of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021 could also help provide support for the A-share market,\" said Yan Kaiwen, an analyst with China Fortune Securities.</p><p>Though stocks lost ground for the week on persistent worries that recent upbeat economic data could reinforce Beijing's policy tightening bias, even as Beijing had pledged no sudden policy shift. The CSI300 dropped 1.4%, while SSEC slipped 0.7%.</p><p>Also souring sentiment were ongoing tensions between Beijing and Washington.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China stocks end higher as country's GDP hits record growth</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina stocks end higher as country's GDP hits record growth\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-16 15:21</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>SHANGHAI, April 16 (Reuters) - China stocks ended higher on Friday, as investors cheered robust GDP growth recorded in the first quarter, though lingering worries over policy tightening by Beijing pushed equities to post a weekly loss.</p><p>The blue-chip CSI300 index ended up 0.4% at 4,966.18, while the Shanghai Composite Index added 0.8%to 3,426.62.</p><p>China's economic recovery quickened sharply in the first quarter from a coronavirus-induced slump earlier last year, propelled by stronger demand at home and abroad and continued government support for smaller firms.</p><p>The country's GDP jumped a record 18.3% in the first quarter from a year earlier, official data showed on Friday, slower than the 19% forecast by economists in a Reuters poll, and following 6.5% growth in the fourth quarter last year.</p><p>\"The GDP data is a bit better than my expectations, while the robust corporate earnings for the year of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021 could also help provide support for the A-share market,\" said Yan Kaiwen, an analyst with China Fortune Securities.</p><p>Though stocks lost ground for the week on persistent worries that recent upbeat economic data could reinforce Beijing's policy tightening bias, even as Beijing had pledged no sudden policy shift. The CSI300 dropped 1.4%, while SSEC slipped 0.7%.</p><p>Also souring sentiment were ongoing tensions between Beijing and Washington.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2127283686","content_text":"SHANGHAI, April 16 (Reuters) - China stocks ended higher on Friday, as investors cheered robust GDP growth recorded in the first quarter, though lingering worries over policy tightening by Beijing pushed equities to post a weekly loss.The blue-chip CSI300 index ended up 0.4% at 4,966.18, while the Shanghai Composite Index added 0.8%to 3,426.62.China's economic recovery quickened sharply in the first quarter from a coronavirus-induced slump earlier last year, propelled by stronger demand at home and abroad and continued government support for smaller firms.The country's GDP jumped a record 18.3% in the first quarter from a year earlier, official data showed on Friday, slower than the 19% forecast by economists in a Reuters poll, and following 6.5% growth in the fourth quarter last year.\"The GDP data is a bit better than my expectations, while the robust corporate earnings for the year of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021 could also help provide support for the A-share market,\" said Yan Kaiwen, an analyst with China Fortune Securities.Though stocks lost ground for the week on persistent worries that recent upbeat economic data could reinforce Beijing's policy tightening bias, even as Beijing had pledged no sudden policy shift. The CSI300 dropped 1.4%, while SSEC slipped 0.7%.Also souring sentiment were ongoing tensions between Beijing and Washington.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":38,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":370102590,"gmtCreate":1618559461210,"gmtModify":1634292084968,"author":{"id":"3581651431761930","authorId":"3581651431761930","authorIdStr":"3581651431761930","name":"T3M1N4T0R","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581651431761930"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I think tesla will still continue to reach newer highs!","listText":"I think tesla will still continue to reach newer highs!","text":"I think tesla will still continue to reach newer highs!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370102590","repostId":"1153076451","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153076451","pubTimestamp":1618556863,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153076451?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 15:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Options Prices Imply A Bearish Outlook For Tesla","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153076451","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTSLA's valuation is sensitive to assumptions about earnings growth, as well as interest rat","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>TSLA's valuation is sensitive to assumptions about earnings growth, as well as interest rates.</li>\n <li>There is enormous dispersion in the Wall Street analysts' price targets due to this sensitivity.</li>\n <li>The Wall Street analyst consensus is that the stock is overpriced.</li>\n <li>The market-implied outlook (derived from options prices) gives probabilities tilted to price declines to early 2022.</li>\n <li>My overall rating is bearish.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc756d1b948ebdb3dc4733f45bfde46c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)has a trailing twelve-month P/E of 1,226 (Source: eTrade) and a forward P/E of 180 (Source: Seeking Alpha). At these levels of P/E ratio, the vast majority of Tesla’s valuation depends on earnings growth, as with other fast-growing companies. It is not surprising that TSLA stock dropped substantially during concerns about rising rates in early 2021. Companies for which the valuations depend on future rapid earnings growth will tend to be very sensitive to rates, because rising rates increase the discount rate applied to future earnings and the impact of this increase is much higher for earnings further into the future. Especially in cases in which a stock’s value is sensitive to justifiably variable assumptions about future earnings, considering a range of possible outcomes is important. Put in statistical terms, systems with low predictability are best analyzed using ensemble forecasts rather than point forecasts.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/498fffe7f0087b498b810cc31969d6a6\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"232\"><span>Price history and basic statistics for TSLA (Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p>My approach to equity analysis is from a statistical standpoint rather than bottom-up fundamental valuation. I can offer no unique insight into Tesla’s technology, how quickly Tesla will grow its sales or as to the impact of competition from other car manufacturers. If you are looking for one more equity analyst’s opinion, this article is not for you. In this article, I compare two different consensus outlooks for the stock. The first is the consensus rating and price target from the Wall Street equity analysts who follow the company. The second consensus view is the market-implied outlook which is derived from the prices at which options are trading. This is, in effect, the consensus opinion of all of the buyers and sellers of options on TSLA. Market-implied outlooks are quite common in quantitative finance but tend to be less familiar to investors and advisors. I have written an overview post that provides examples and links to the finance literature and an implementation of market-implied outlooks by the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank.</p>\n<p><b>Wall Street Analyst Ratings</b></p>\n<p>Especially for a company like Tesla, which is innovating and evolving rapidly in a market that is also growing and changing quickly, the consensus outlook of equity analysts is of interest. Each analyst will apply their own assumptions and estimates, and the consensus will tend to emphasize the common aspects and damp out the outliers. In addition, the dispersion among the analysts provides a sense of uncertainty. The higher the dispersion among price targets, for example, the less predictive the consensus target tends to be.</p>\n<p>eTrade’s calculation of the Wall Street consensus combines the view of 27 ranked analysts who have rated the stock and provided 12-month price targets over the past 90 days. The consensus rating is neutral (HOLD) and the consensus 12-month price target is 6.5% below the current share price. The spread in the price targets is enormous, with the highest price target almost 8.9 times the lowest price target. The lowest 12-month target, $135, is not an extreme outlier. There are also analysts with price targets of $150 and $180 as well as three analysts with price targets between $200 and $300.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fbccc769e51e3f6f019ddc3f7bfc63d\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"452\"><span>Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for TSLA (Source: eTrade)</span></p>\n<p>Seeking Alpha’s calculation for the Wall Street consensus combines the outlooks of 35 analysts. The consensus rating is neutral, with a price target of $636.47, which is 15% below the current price.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c20344d6c1b7953446ab1a2f555bfa8\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"455\"><span>Wall Street analyst consensus rating and price target for TSLA (Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p>The wide range of analyst opinions is also captured in the pie chart of ratings. There are 14 analysts with bullish ratings, 13 with neutral ratings, and 8 with bearish ratings.</p>\n<p><b>Market-Implied Outlook</b></p>\n<p>The buyers and sellers of options on TSLA are placing bets on the probabilities of the price rising above (call options) or falling below (put options) a specific price (the strike price) between now and the expiration date of the options. By combining the prices of call options and put options at a range of strikes and the same expiration date, it is possible to calculate the probability distribution of price returns (between now and the expiration date) that reconcile all of the options prices. This probabilistic outlook for price returns is referred to as the market-implied (aka option-implied) outlook and represents the consensus outlook of the options market. The market-implied outlook provides an interesting complement to the Wall Street analyst outlook.</p>\n<p>I have analyzed options on TSLA that expire on January 21, 2022 to provide the market-implied outlook for the next 9.25 months (between now and that date). The market-implied outlook is charted in the form of a standard probability distribution of returns, with probability on the vertical axis and price return on the horizontal axis, going from most negative on the left to most positive on the right.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/681fc7b1f0d61ed0cb7734b1ea478177\" tg-width=\"723\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>Market-implied price return probabilities for TSLA for the period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from eTrade)</span></p>\n<p>What is immediately obvious in the market-implied outlook for the next 9.25 months is the very high positive skewness in returns. The single most-probable price return over this period is -34% and the median return is -18% (There is equal probability of being above or below the median). There is, however, an extremely long positive tail on the distribution, such that there is a low but meaningful probability of exceedingly high returns. This is a bearish outlook, with the most probable outcomes being substantially negative price returns over the next 9.25 months.</p>\n<p>The annualized volatility of TSLA derived from this distribution is 69%, which is very high for a large cap or mid cap stock. To put this in context, I recently calculated 62% annualized volatility for Snowflake (SNOW) using the same type of analysis.</p>\n<p>In my analyses using the market-implied outlook, I often rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis in order to make it easier to see the relative probabilities of positive and negative returns of the same magnitude (see chart below). I provide this view to make it easier to compare the market-implied outlook for TSLA to some of my other analysis.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dce9b2b5a6d42644665c4133af0b67dd\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"358\"><span>Market-implied price return probabilities for TSLA for the period from today until January 21, 2022 and with the negative return side of the chart rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from eTrade)</span></p>\n<p>This chart looks very similar to the market-implied outlook for Teladoc from February, for example. I have been seeing this form of market-implied outlook for a range of tech stocks in recent months. The common characteristics are high positive skewness and prevailing probabilities tilted to price declines.</p>\n<p>Another view of the market-implied outlook is in terms of the percentiles of the outcomes (this is referred to as the cumulative probability distribution). The percentiles show the probability of having a return above or below a specific level (see chart below).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afa38062250c74ca42ec7813a3eb600c\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>Percentiles of market-implied price return probabilities for TSLA for the period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from eTrade)</span></p>\n<p>There is a 64% probability of having a price return less than or equal to zero for the 9.25 month period (where the percentile curve crosses zero return). The skewness effect is easy to see here. The 20th percentile return is -44%, which means that there is a 20% probability of having a price return of -44% or worse over the next 9.25 months. The 10th percentile is -59%. The 80th percentile is +47% and the 90th percentile is +88%. The extreme percentiles illustrate the skewness. There is a 10% probability of having returns less than or equal to -59% (the 10th percentile) and there is a 10% chance of having a return greater than +88% (the 90th percentile).</p>\n<p>There is a very active options market on TSLA, so the market-implied outlook is of considerable interest. The consensus outlook of the options traders suggests that the highest-probability outcomes over the next 9.25 months are price declines, a bearish view. There is also an elevated potential, albeit with low probability, for out-sized positive returns.</p>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<p>Tesla is a remarkable company that has transformed and continues to lead the market for electric vehicles. Because the technology, the business, and the policy and regulation around electric vehicles is evolving so quickly, I believe it is especially important to analyze TSLA by looking at the range of forecasts. The Wall Street consensus provides one approach to capturing uncertainty by looking at the dispersion in price targets. The market-implied outlook provides a particularly relevant probabilistic outlook. The Wall Street consensus is that TSLA is currently overpriced, with a consensus 12-month price target implying a return of -6.5% to -15%. The dispersion in analyst price targets is enormous, varying by a factor of 9X. The market-implied outlook gives a median price return of -18%, with the single most-probable price return (the mode of the distribution) equal to -34%, for the next 9.25 months. The annualized volatility derived from the market-implied outlook is 69%. My final rating is bearish. There is the potential for enormous positive returns, but the prevailing odds point towards price declines.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Options Prices Imply A Bearish Outlook For Tesla</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOptions Prices Imply A Bearish Outlook For Tesla\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-16 15:07 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419312-options-prices-imply-bearish-outlook-for-tesla><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTSLA's valuation is sensitive to assumptions about earnings growth, as well as interest rates.\nThere is enormous dispersion in the Wall Street analysts' price targets due to this sensitivity....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419312-options-prices-imply-bearish-outlook-for-tesla\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419312-options-prices-imply-bearish-outlook-for-tesla","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1153076451","content_text":"Summary\n\nTSLA's valuation is sensitive to assumptions about earnings growth, as well as interest rates.\nThere is enormous dispersion in the Wall Street analysts' price targets due to this sensitivity.\nThe Wall Street analyst consensus is that the stock is overpriced.\nThe market-implied outlook (derived from options prices) gives probabilities tilted to price declines to early 2022.\nMy overall rating is bearish.\n\nPhoto by jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nTesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)has a trailing twelve-month P/E of 1,226 (Source: eTrade) and a forward P/E of 180 (Source: Seeking Alpha). At these levels of P/E ratio, the vast majority of Tesla’s valuation depends on earnings growth, as with other fast-growing companies. It is not surprising that TSLA stock dropped substantially during concerns about rising rates in early 2021. Companies for which the valuations depend on future rapid earnings growth will tend to be very sensitive to rates, because rising rates increase the discount rate applied to future earnings and the impact of this increase is much higher for earnings further into the future. Especially in cases in which a stock’s value is sensitive to justifiably variable assumptions about future earnings, considering a range of possible outcomes is important. Put in statistical terms, systems with low predictability are best analyzed using ensemble forecasts rather than point forecasts.\nPrice history and basic statistics for TSLA (Source: Seeking Alpha)\nMy approach to equity analysis is from a statistical standpoint rather than bottom-up fundamental valuation. I can offer no unique insight into Tesla’s technology, how quickly Tesla will grow its sales or as to the impact of competition from other car manufacturers. If you are looking for one more equity analyst’s opinion, this article is not for you. In this article, I compare two different consensus outlooks for the stock. The first is the consensus rating and price target from the Wall Street equity analysts who follow the company. The second consensus view is the market-implied outlook which is derived from the prices at which options are trading. This is, in effect, the consensus opinion of all of the buyers and sellers of options on TSLA. Market-implied outlooks are quite common in quantitative finance but tend to be less familiar to investors and advisors. I have written an overview post that provides examples and links to the finance literature and an implementation of market-implied outlooks by the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank.\nWall Street Analyst Ratings\nEspecially for a company like Tesla, which is innovating and evolving rapidly in a market that is also growing and changing quickly, the consensus outlook of equity analysts is of interest. Each analyst will apply their own assumptions and estimates, and the consensus will tend to emphasize the common aspects and damp out the outliers. In addition, the dispersion among the analysts provides a sense of uncertainty. The higher the dispersion among price targets, for example, the less predictive the consensus target tends to be.\neTrade’s calculation of the Wall Street consensus combines the view of 27 ranked analysts who have rated the stock and provided 12-month price targets over the past 90 days. The consensus rating is neutral (HOLD) and the consensus 12-month price target is 6.5% below the current share price. The spread in the price targets is enormous, with the highest price target almost 8.9 times the lowest price target. The lowest 12-month target, $135, is not an extreme outlier. There are also analysts with price targets of $150 and $180 as well as three analysts with price targets between $200 and $300.\nWall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for TSLA (Source: eTrade)\nSeeking Alpha’s calculation for the Wall Street consensus combines the outlooks of 35 analysts. The consensus rating is neutral, with a price target of $636.47, which is 15% below the current price.\nWall Street analyst consensus rating and price target for TSLA (Source: Seeking Alpha)\nThe wide range of analyst opinions is also captured in the pie chart of ratings. There are 14 analysts with bullish ratings, 13 with neutral ratings, and 8 with bearish ratings.\nMarket-Implied Outlook\nThe buyers and sellers of options on TSLA are placing bets on the probabilities of the price rising above (call options) or falling below (put options) a specific price (the strike price) between now and the expiration date of the options. By combining the prices of call options and put options at a range of strikes and the same expiration date, it is possible to calculate the probability distribution of price returns (between now and the expiration date) that reconcile all of the options prices. This probabilistic outlook for price returns is referred to as the market-implied (aka option-implied) outlook and represents the consensus outlook of the options market. The market-implied outlook provides an interesting complement to the Wall Street analyst outlook.\nI have analyzed options on TSLA that expire on January 21, 2022 to provide the market-implied outlook for the next 9.25 months (between now and that date). The market-implied outlook is charted in the form of a standard probability distribution of returns, with probability on the vertical axis and price return on the horizontal axis, going from most negative on the left to most positive on the right.\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for TSLA for the period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from eTrade)\nWhat is immediately obvious in the market-implied outlook for the next 9.25 months is the very high positive skewness in returns. The single most-probable price return over this period is -34% and the median return is -18% (There is equal probability of being above or below the median). There is, however, an extremely long positive tail on the distribution, such that there is a low but meaningful probability of exceedingly high returns. This is a bearish outlook, with the most probable outcomes being substantially negative price returns over the next 9.25 months.\nThe annualized volatility of TSLA derived from this distribution is 69%, which is very high for a large cap or mid cap stock. To put this in context, I recently calculated 62% annualized volatility for Snowflake (SNOW) using the same type of analysis.\nIn my analyses using the market-implied outlook, I often rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis in order to make it easier to see the relative probabilities of positive and negative returns of the same magnitude (see chart below). I provide this view to make it easier to compare the market-implied outlook for TSLA to some of my other analysis.\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for TSLA for the period from today until January 21, 2022 and with the negative return side of the chart rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from eTrade)\nThis chart looks very similar to the market-implied outlook for Teladoc from February, for example. I have been seeing this form of market-implied outlook for a range of tech stocks in recent months. The common characteristics are high positive skewness and prevailing probabilities tilted to price declines.\nAnother view of the market-implied outlook is in terms of the percentiles of the outcomes (this is referred to as the cumulative probability distribution). The percentiles show the probability of having a return above or below a specific level (see chart below).\nPercentiles of market-implied price return probabilities for TSLA for the period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from eTrade)\nThere is a 64% probability of having a price return less than or equal to zero for the 9.25 month period (where the percentile curve crosses zero return). The skewness effect is easy to see here. The 20th percentile return is -44%, which means that there is a 20% probability of having a price return of -44% or worse over the next 9.25 months. The 10th percentile is -59%. The 80th percentile is +47% and the 90th percentile is +88%. The extreme percentiles illustrate the skewness. There is a 10% probability of having returns less than or equal to -59% (the 10th percentile) and there is a 10% chance of having a return greater than +88% (the 90th percentile).\nThere is a very active options market on TSLA, so the market-implied outlook is of considerable interest. The consensus outlook of the options traders suggests that the highest-probability outcomes over the next 9.25 months are price declines, a bearish view. There is also an elevated potential, albeit with low probability, for out-sized positive returns.\nSummary\nTesla is a remarkable company that has transformed and continues to lead the market for electric vehicles. Because the technology, the business, and the policy and regulation around electric vehicles is evolving so quickly, I believe it is especially important to analyze TSLA by looking at the range of forecasts. The Wall Street consensus provides one approach to capturing uncertainty by looking at the dispersion in price targets. The market-implied outlook provides a particularly relevant probabilistic outlook. The Wall Street consensus is that TSLA is currently overpriced, with a consensus 12-month price target implying a return of -6.5% to -15%. The dispersion in analyst price targets is enormous, varying by a factor of 9X. The market-implied outlook gives a median price return of -18%, with the single most-probable price return (the mode of the distribution) equal to -34%, for the next 9.25 months. The annualized volatility derived from the market-implied outlook is 69%. My final rating is bearish. There is the potential for enormous positive returns, but the prevailing odds point towards price declines.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":76,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
