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我是猪八戒

2021-06-24

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2021-06-24

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Forget Crypto: These Supercharged Stocks Can Make You Rich

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2021-06-24

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Tesla: A Lesson In Humility

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2021-06-24

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2021-06-24

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Pfizer: A Wide Moat Business At A Fair Price

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2021-06-24

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2021-06-23

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2021-06-23

https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary/*9O8T4N-index.html?feature=Banner&Page=Me&lang=en_US&skin=1&edition=fundamental&invite=9O8T4N

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2021-06-22

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2021-06-22

Join Tiger Brokers with me and receive stock vouchers of up to 1 million!https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary/*9O8T4N-index.html?feature=Banner&Page=Me&lang=en_US&skin=1&edition=fundamental&invite=9O8T4N&share=WhatsAPP

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ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128570215","repostId":"1169013136","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128546740,"gmtCreate":1624525329280,"gmtModify":1634004878992,"author":{"id":"3581576661121192","authorId":"3581576661121192","name":"我是猪八戒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581576661121192","authorIdStr":"3581576661121192"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[无语]&nbsp;","listText":"[无语]&nbsp;","text":"[无语]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128546740","repostId":"2145531099","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145531099","pubTimestamp":1624445171,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2145531099?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 18:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Forget Crypto: These Supercharged Stocks Can Make You Rich","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145531099","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The cryptocurrency bubble will inevitably burst. That's why these hypergrowth stocks make for such smart buys.","content":"<p>The stock market has long been the preferred creator of wealth. Although other investment vehicles, such as bonds or gold, have had superior performances for short stretches of time, no asset class has delivered better average annual returns than stocks over the long run.</p>\n<p>However, the emergence of cryptocurrencies is changing this mode of thinking. After watching <b>Bitcoin</b> (CRYPTO:BTC) rise from $1 to $40,000 in a little over a decade, and seeing <b>Dogecoin</b> (CRYPTO:DOGE) gallop higher by 27,000% in a six-month span, investors are feeling compelled to chase the momentum in the crypto space.</p>\n<p>Unfortunately, this could prove to be a huge mistake.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e84aa34310d37f1ab30212f9dcf1bf0d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>The cryptocurrency bubble is eventually going to burst</h2>\n<p>While there's no denying that cryptocurrency has delivered some game-changing returns, most of this upside has been built on unsubstantiated hype. In other words, some folks view tokens like Bitcoin and Dogecoin as the future global currencies, but virtually nothing has suggested that this will come to fruition.</p>\n<p>The reality is that digital currencies are virtually useless outside of a cryptocurrency exchange. Bitcoin has been stuck handling 250,000 to 300,000 transactions daily for years, while Dogecoin has been averaging closer to 30,000 daily transactions of late. For comparison's sake, payment-processing giants <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a></b>&nbsp;and <b>Mastercard</b>&nbsp;handled 700 million transactions daily on a combined basis in 2018.</p>\n<p>To build on this point, Fundera estimated earlier this year that only around 15,200 businesses worldwide accepted Bitcoin. Meanwhile, online business directory Cryptwerk finds that Dogecoin is accepted by 1,400 companies. For context, there are more than 32 million businesses in the U.S., and an estimated 582 million entrepreneurs worldwide. There simply isn't the broad-based adoption that's being hyped by cryptocurrency supporters.</p>\n<p>At the same time, blockchain technology is caught in a Catch-22. Blockchain being the transparent and immutable underlying ledger of digital currencies that logs transactions. No business is willing to abandon time-tested infrastructure in favor of blockchain until it's demonstrated that blockchain can be scaled in the real world. At the same time, there won't be any evidence that blockchain is revolutionary if no businesses are willing to be an early stage guinea pig, so to speak.</p>\n<p>History unequivocally shows that all bubbles eventually burst, without exception. That's the fate awaiting cryptocurrencies.</p>\n<h2>Dump digital currencies in favor of this fast-growing trio</h2>\n<p>Rather than put your money to work in an asset class that's being driven by hype and emotion, my suggestion would be to buy the following trio of supercharged stocks. If you buy stakes in innovative businesses whose products and services have growing real-world application, and you hold these stakes for long periods of time, you'll very likely get rich.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ca48e46c5ed915bdfaeb115d44e553\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>Etsy</h2>\n<p>To begin with, e-commerce platform <b>Etsy</b> (NASDAQ:ETSY) will have long-term investors forgetting all about the volatility and hype associated with digital currencies.</p>\n<p>To state the obvious, Etsy was a clear winner of the coronavirus pandemic. With people stuck in their homes, many turned online to buy basic-need and discretionary goods. For Etsy, this included a healthy uptick in sales from facial coverings. But the Etsy platform has <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> key advantage that not even <b>Amazon</b>&nbsp;looks to be a threat to: personalization.</p>\n<p>Etsy's platform is built on the idea of putting customers in contact with small merchants who can, if needed, customize their order. Etsy's collection of merchants focuses on personal engagement and uniqueness that shoppers simply won't find on bigger e-commerce platforms. The proof is in the pudding that Etsy's platform is resonating with shoppers. Habitual buyer spending -- those who purchased at least six separate times totaling more than $200, in aggregate, over the trailing year -- has been rocketing higher. Habitual buyers spent 205% more in the first quarter of 2021 than they did in the prior-year quarter.</p>\n<p>Since Etsy generates the bulk of its revenue from merchant ads, the company has also been aggressively reinvesting in its platform to streamline searches and keep users engaged. Last year, it introduced listing videos to promote products, and it's been giving its smaller merchants greater access to analytic tools.</p>\n<p>It's not out of the question that Etsy triples its annual revenue by mid-decade.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95488cfb7d1265a9ff2f104768cae97b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"464\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>Sea Limited</h2>\n<p>Another supercharged growth stock that can make investors rich is Singapore-based <b>Sea Limited</b> (NYSE:SE). Even though Sea is far from inexpensive, the premium you'd be paying takes into account that it has three exceptionally fast-growing operating segments.</p>\n<p>For the time being, Sea is generating virtually all of its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) from its gaming division. Similar to online shopping, gaming benefited notably from people being stuck in their homes. Since Sea's mobile games target global audiences, and the pandemic is nowhere near over in many parts of the world, demand for gaming entertainment will likely remain robust. Over the past year (through the end of March), quarterly active paying users grew by 124%, with 12.3% of the company's total gamers now paying to play.</p>\n<p>Over the long run, Sea's crown jewel should be its e-commerce platform Shopee, which is consistently the most-popular shopping download in Southeastern Asia, and is gaining significant traction in Brazil. With a focus on emerging markets and regions where the middle class is growing at an incredible rate, Shopee saw gross orders jump 153% in the first quarter, with the gross merchandise value of these orders doubling to $12.6 billion. This is just the tip of the iceberg.</p>\n<p>Lastly, Sea's digital financial services division is bringing mobile wallet services to underbanked regions. Mobile wallet payment volume is on pace to potentially surpass $14 billion in 2021, with more than 26 million paying customers in Q1.</p>\n<p>If all goes well, Sea Limited's revenue could possibly quintuple over the next four years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68ecb34d6e4fd6f7dc599908229a09a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>CrowdStrike Holdings</h2>\n<p>Cybersecurity stock <b>CrowdStrike Holdings</b> (NASDAQ:CRWD) is a third supercharged growth company that can easily outpace the returns from the cryptocurrency industry over the long run.</p>\n<p>Cybersecurity might not be the fastest-growing industry over the next decade, but it could very well be the safest double-digit growth opportunity. With more businesses than ever shifting their data online and into the cloud due to the pandemic, the importance of protecting enterprise and consumer data is greater than ever before. In short, demand for third-party cybersecurity solutions providers is soaring.</p>\n<p>While there is no shortage of cybersecurity specialists to choose from, what sets CrowdStrike apart is its cloud-native Falcon platform. Being built in the cloud, and relying on artificial intelligence, Falcon oversees approximately 6 trillion events each week. This is to say that CrowdStrike's core platform is getting smarter at recognizing and responding to potential threats over time. And in many instances, CrowdStrike's solutions are more efficient and cost-effective than on-premises security options.</p>\n<p>It's plainly evident from the company's operating results that Falcon is resonating with enterprise customers. It's been able to retain 98% of its customers for two consecutive years, and existing clients have spent between 23% and 47% more on a year-over-year basis for 12 straight quarters. Arguably even more impressive is that 64% of customers have purchased four or more cloud-module subscriptions, which is up from 9% just four years ago. It's this rapid scaling from the company's enterprise clients that has CrowdStrike generating a subscription gross margin in the upper 70% range.</p>\n<p>Investors should expect CrowdStrike to grow by 30% or more on an annual basis through the midpoint of the decade.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Forget Crypto: These Supercharged Stocks Can Make You Rich</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForget Crypto: These Supercharged Stocks Can Make You Rich\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 18:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/forget-crypto-supercharged-stocks-make-you-rich/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The stock market has long been the preferred creator of wealth. Although other investment vehicles, such as bonds or gold, have had superior performances for short stretches of time, no asset class ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/forget-crypto-supercharged-stocks-make-you-rich/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ETSY":"Etsy, Inc.","CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.","SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/forget-crypto-supercharged-stocks-make-you-rich/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145531099","content_text":"The stock market has long been the preferred creator of wealth. Although other investment vehicles, such as bonds or gold, have had superior performances for short stretches of time, no asset class has delivered better average annual returns than stocks over the long run.\nHowever, the emergence of cryptocurrencies is changing this mode of thinking. After watching Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) rise from $1 to $40,000 in a little over a decade, and seeing Dogecoin (CRYPTO:DOGE) gallop higher by 27,000% in a six-month span, investors are feeling compelled to chase the momentum in the crypto space.\nUnfortunately, this could prove to be a huge mistake.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nThe cryptocurrency bubble is eventually going to burst\nWhile there's no denying that cryptocurrency has delivered some game-changing returns, most of this upside has been built on unsubstantiated hype. In other words, some folks view tokens like Bitcoin and Dogecoin as the future global currencies, but virtually nothing has suggested that this will come to fruition.\nThe reality is that digital currencies are virtually useless outside of a cryptocurrency exchange. Bitcoin has been stuck handling 250,000 to 300,000 transactions daily for years, while Dogecoin has been averaging closer to 30,000 daily transactions of late. For comparison's sake, payment-processing giants Visa and Mastercard handled 700 million transactions daily on a combined basis in 2018.\nTo build on this point, Fundera estimated earlier this year that only around 15,200 businesses worldwide accepted Bitcoin. Meanwhile, online business directory Cryptwerk finds that Dogecoin is accepted by 1,400 companies. For context, there are more than 32 million businesses in the U.S., and an estimated 582 million entrepreneurs worldwide. There simply isn't the broad-based adoption that's being hyped by cryptocurrency supporters.\nAt the same time, blockchain technology is caught in a Catch-22. Blockchain being the transparent and immutable underlying ledger of digital currencies that logs transactions. No business is willing to abandon time-tested infrastructure in favor of blockchain until it's demonstrated that blockchain can be scaled in the real world. At the same time, there won't be any evidence that blockchain is revolutionary if no businesses are willing to be an early stage guinea pig, so to speak.\nHistory unequivocally shows that all bubbles eventually burst, without exception. That's the fate awaiting cryptocurrencies.\nDump digital currencies in favor of this fast-growing trio\nRather than put your money to work in an asset class that's being driven by hype and emotion, my suggestion would be to buy the following trio of supercharged stocks. If you buy stakes in innovative businesses whose products and services have growing real-world application, and you hold these stakes for long periods of time, you'll very likely get rich.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nEtsy\nTo begin with, e-commerce platform Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY) will have long-term investors forgetting all about the volatility and hype associated with digital currencies.\nTo state the obvious, Etsy was a clear winner of the coronavirus pandemic. With people stuck in their homes, many turned online to buy basic-need and discretionary goods. For Etsy, this included a healthy uptick in sales from facial coverings. But the Etsy platform has one key advantage that not even Amazon looks to be a threat to: personalization.\nEtsy's platform is built on the idea of putting customers in contact with small merchants who can, if needed, customize their order. Etsy's collection of merchants focuses on personal engagement and uniqueness that shoppers simply won't find on bigger e-commerce platforms. The proof is in the pudding that Etsy's platform is resonating with shoppers. Habitual buyer spending -- those who purchased at least six separate times totaling more than $200, in aggregate, over the trailing year -- has been rocketing higher. Habitual buyers spent 205% more in the first quarter of 2021 than they did in the prior-year quarter.\nSince Etsy generates the bulk of its revenue from merchant ads, the company has also been aggressively reinvesting in its platform to streamline searches and keep users engaged. Last year, it introduced listing videos to promote products, and it's been giving its smaller merchants greater access to analytic tools.\nIt's not out of the question that Etsy triples its annual revenue by mid-decade.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nSea Limited\nAnother supercharged growth stock that can make investors rich is Singapore-based Sea Limited (NYSE:SE). Even though Sea is far from inexpensive, the premium you'd be paying takes into account that it has three exceptionally fast-growing operating segments.\nFor the time being, Sea is generating virtually all of its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) from its gaming division. Similar to online shopping, gaming benefited notably from people being stuck in their homes. Since Sea's mobile games target global audiences, and the pandemic is nowhere near over in many parts of the world, demand for gaming entertainment will likely remain robust. Over the past year (through the end of March), quarterly active paying users grew by 124%, with 12.3% of the company's total gamers now paying to play.\nOver the long run, Sea's crown jewel should be its e-commerce platform Shopee, which is consistently the most-popular shopping download in Southeastern Asia, and is gaining significant traction in Brazil. With a focus on emerging markets and regions where the middle class is growing at an incredible rate, Shopee saw gross orders jump 153% in the first quarter, with the gross merchandise value of these orders doubling to $12.6 billion. This is just the tip of the iceberg.\nLastly, Sea's digital financial services division is bringing mobile wallet services to underbanked regions. Mobile wallet payment volume is on pace to potentially surpass $14 billion in 2021, with more than 26 million paying customers in Q1.\nIf all goes well, Sea Limited's revenue could possibly quintuple over the next four years.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nCrowdStrike Holdings\nCybersecurity stock CrowdStrike Holdings (NASDAQ:CRWD) is a third supercharged growth company that can easily outpace the returns from the cryptocurrency industry over the long run.\nCybersecurity might not be the fastest-growing industry over the next decade, but it could very well be the safest double-digit growth opportunity. With more businesses than ever shifting their data online and into the cloud due to the pandemic, the importance of protecting enterprise and consumer data is greater than ever before. In short, demand for third-party cybersecurity solutions providers is soaring.\nWhile there is no shortage of cybersecurity specialists to choose from, what sets CrowdStrike apart is its cloud-native Falcon platform. Being built in the cloud, and relying on artificial intelligence, Falcon oversees approximately 6 trillion events each week. This is to say that CrowdStrike's core platform is getting smarter at recognizing and responding to potential threats over time. And in many instances, CrowdStrike's solutions are more efficient and cost-effective than on-premises security options.\nIt's plainly evident from the company's operating results that Falcon is resonating with enterprise customers. It's been able to retain 98% of its customers for two consecutive years, and existing clients have spent between 23% and 47% more on a year-over-year basis for 12 straight quarters. Arguably even more impressive is that 64% of customers have purchased four or more cloud-module subscriptions, which is up from 9% just four years ago. It's this rapid scaling from the company's enterprise clients that has CrowdStrike generating a subscription gross margin in the upper 70% range.\nInvestors should expect CrowdStrike to grow by 30% or more on an annual basis through the midpoint of the decade.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":128548211,"gmtCreate":1624525287633,"gmtModify":1634004879935,"author":{"id":"3581576661121192","authorId":"3581576661121192","name":"我是猪八戒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581576661121192","authorIdStr":"3581576661121192"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128548211","repostId":"1176854050","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176854050","pubTimestamp":1624506221,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176854050?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: A Lesson In Humility","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176854050","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Tesla shares have pulled well back in a months-long period of weakness.With earnings coming up, there looks to be a showdown of bulls and bears on the near-term horizon.I see Tesla's fundamentals - and valuation - as having improved massively in recent months, and I'm therefore still quite bullish.Finally, the elephant in the room is the descending triangle I noted above, and I’ve added some extra bars at the end of the chart to show what the resolution of the triangle might look like. We can se","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla shares have pulled well back in a months-long period of weakness.</li>\n <li>With earnings coming up, there looks to be a showdown of bulls and bears on the near-term horizon.</li>\n <li>I see Tesla's fundamentals - and valuation - as having improved massively in recent months, and I'm therefore still quite bullish.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16088600ba424779ab370711976bff68\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>AdrianHancu/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Sometimes in investing, our thesis, no matter how much we believe in it, doesn’t work. I’ve experienced that countless times personally, and I think pretty much everyone who tries their hand at growing capital through the financial markets does as well. The important thing is not to fall in love with a stock and let it destroy your portfolio, and in the case of EV mothership<b>Tesla</b>(TSLA), I certainly had my fair share of practice at letting go of a failed thesis recently.</p>\n<p>Back inearly April, I said it was time to buy Tesla based upon its fairly reliable history of running higher into earnings announcements. The stock was at $691 at the time and did move higher in the next couple of weeks, but as we can see from the below, the move didn’t stick. That caused me to rethink my position in the short-term with Tesla, and now that we are four weeks out from the next earnings report, we have a different situation on our hands.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54fd49361e0720105b3d38a4c4c88fa1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: StockCharts</span></p>\n<p>I’ve annotated several things on the daily chart because the situation is quite interesting for Tesla during this critical period leading up to the next earnings release. The first thing I’ll note is that the accumulation/distribution line remains very strong, having never wavered from its prior levels achieved during the massive rally that took place mostly in 2020. That’s a good sign because the bulls and bears remain roughly equally matched despite a share price that has given the bulls every reason to move on.</p>\n<p>Momentum is more of a mixed picture because the PPO and 14-day RSI are both showing some signs of positive divergence, but also signs that bullish momentum is nowhere near high enough to push the stock into another rally phase. On the divergence side, momentum is gradually moving higher while the share price bounces around, indicating that the worst of the selling is likely done, but that we’re in a digestion period. The 14-day RSI hasn’t yet crested the centerline in earnest, which again means that bullish momentum is fairly weak.</p>\n<p>Overall, I’d say momentum is showing what you might expect at this stage, which is that the selling pressure has abated, but we’re not in rally mode. Yet.</p>\n<p>Finally, the elephant in the room is the descending triangle I noted above, and I’ve added some extra bars at the end of the chart to show what the resolution of the triangle might look like. We can see at the current slope of the line that the triangle will likely resolve near the end of July, which just so happens to coincide with the earnings release. This is a bearish pattern so I don’t want to make everything seem like sunshine and lollipops, but the rest of the chart is mixed, so we’ll have to wait and see.</p>\n<p>The earnings report, in my view, is going to be the catalyst one way or the other for the breakout from the triangle. Which direction it will go is anyone’s guess, but I’d be ready for a wild reaction to the earnings release in July.</p>\n<p>If we look at a weekly chart, I see a much rosier picture.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4525c330221c7768acc84c336cd8ef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: StockCharts</span></p>\n<p>We can see that the stock ran up massively in 2020 and took with it the accumulation/distribution line, as well as the momentum indicators, as you’d expect. But since the selling began, we see signs that the stock has simply worked off its overbought conditions, which looks bullish to me.</p>\n<p>The 50-week moving average has served as support during this consolidation phase, and it currently stands at $575, so I’d watch that level if we see more selling. On the plus side, the accumulation/distribution line looks beautiful and again, is supportive of this selling being a digestion period rather than the end of the bull market for Tesla.</p>\n<p>Momentum would seem to support that as well, as the PPO and 14-week RSI are back at centerline support. What happens after this is critical, obviously, but the weekly chart doesn’t show Tesla as breaking down on a longer-term basis. The negative divergences we saw since 2020 began have given way to momentum resetting, which often happens before a new bull phase begins. With the earnings report looming in July, and the daily and weekly charts showing different pictures (at least to my eye), it’s going to be an interesting next four weeks for sure.</p>\n<p><b>Fundamentals still bullish</b></p>\n<p>I’d sum up the chart as having a short-term set of challenges for the bulls, but longer-term, I still see Tesla going higher. On a fundamental basis, I think the conclusion is decidedly more bullish. Let’s start with revenue revisions, which have been nothing short of terrific.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7297a6360a43284ab70d4caf12d206f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>All years are showing uptrends in revenue revisions, and in particular, the out years. Let us not forget that these positive revisions are occurring during a time when countless startups and internal combustion engine OGs like GM (GM), Ford (F) and Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) are investing tens of billions of dollars to take market share in EVs. None of this is new and it isn’t like the analyst community is surprised by these investments; Tesla is simply on a tremendous upward trajectory when it comes to growing revenue.</p>\n<p>Canaccordpointed out last week that the Model S Plaid Plus delay was likely due to the 4680 cell design not being ready for prime time. That very well could be the case, and it wouldn’t be the first time Tesla disappointed with a time frame it gave investors. Remember therobo-taxi claim?</p>\n<p>At any rate, the company’s lineup continues to resonate with customers and now that capacity constraints should lessen greatly over the coming years – new factories in a few parts of the world will help – the path of least resistance for Tesla is no doubt higher. This will only get better as Tesla can decrease the per-unit cost of things like the batteries so it can better compete with mainstream automakers on price, and become a mainstream automaker rather than a niche manufacturer for the well-heeled.</p>\n<p>Another thing scale is affording Tesla is monumental progress with profit margins. Below we have trailing-twelve-months gross margins, SG&amp;A costs, and EBIT margin as a percentage of revenue.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9effb44d7bda8f3bdb535e80dd1ac0f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>All three of these lines are moving in the right direction. Gross margins have been rising thanks to higher sales and production volumes, a trend that should continue so long as sales remain robust. In addition, Tesla is spending much less on an SG&amp;A basis than it used to, which again, is the product of higher sales volume. SG&amp;A used to be in the mid-20% range of revenue, which is unsustainable. Today, it’s only 10%, which means operating margins have gone quite positive, and with room to run in the future.</p>\n<p>Margins have always been an easy thing for the bears to point to, but that is simply no longer the case, and if you have a long holding period, the margin situation is going to work out in the bulls’ favor.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6401d5cd793a93d0ed6d36f911abdb15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>This is all pointing to ever-higher EPS estimates, as we can see above. Analysts continue to try and keep up with Tesla’s upward trajectory, and so long as sales volumes and margins continue their march higher, so will these lines. Again, this is a feather in the cap of the bulls.</p>\n<p><b>Other considerations</b></p>\n<p>Tesla is not for the faint of heart, because it is volatile and we are at a point in the history of the automobile that an EV gold rush of sorts is occurring. Everyone is investing to win once the internal combustion engine is gone, but Tesla has a massive head start on the competition.</p>\n<p>Even so, there are risks to consider. First, Tesla could lose its technology lead over time as legacy manufacturers throw tens of billions of dollars at R&amp;D on battery technology. Tesla is far and away the superior battery maker today, but that does not guarantee it stays that way. To be clear, I don’t see that as a viable outcome in the near-term, but ten years from now? Twenty? It's a risk.</p>\n<p>Another risk is that Tesla uses its stock as a piggy bank, issuing shares to fund R&amp;D, factory construction, and the like.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8f44f661051d87ad3f2906cabe5479d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"165\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>The share count has nearly doubled in the past decade, which is pretty ugly from a shareholders’ perspective, as we usually only see this kind of dilution with REITs or BDCs that issue equity capital as a normal course of business. Manufacturing stocks don’t generally do anything like this, but Tesla has made it work. Still, you have to imagine it is possible that over a decade holding period, you’ll be diluted out of half of your ownership in the company. This also creates an uphill battle for EPS as earnings are spread over more and more shares, so I want to be clear this is an unequivocal negative for shareholders. However, let me now point you to what could possibly be the saving grace for this perma-dilution; free cash flow.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0569f35589cc0f82bb006148271df19b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"170\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>Tesla’s trailing-twelve-months FCF has improved immensely in recent years, as the company is producing massive amounts of operating cash flow that it never did before, which is owed once again to sales volume and margin growth. Tesla has surpassed the point where it needs to constantly issue capital just to survive because it is creating its own through its operations. This is massively important for the bull case because it means the dilution we’ve seen in recent years<i>shouldn’t</i>be necessary any longer.</p>\n<p>Indeed, if we look at net debt, we can see just how much Tesla’s balance sheet has improved, which again supports not having to dilute shareholders to stay afloat.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49fa413fc33c85d7269e987b2c11c888\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>Net debt has turned into a net cash position of late, with Tesla having nearly $5 billion in cash and equivalents more than debt. Tesla’s financing situation has improved enormously, and that’s good for those of us that are bullish.</p>\n<p><b>Is it cheap?</b></p>\n<p>Not really. But then again revolutionary companies rarely are. The good news is that the price-to-sales ratio has halved since the peak earlier this year, but at 11x forward revenue, I cannot in good conscience call it cheap.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca2d9f38636872d9d508e096e9ac8af8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"189\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>However, it is a lot cheaper than it was, and withrevenueslated to rise by more than half this year, and then<i>double</i>again by 2024, you don’t need the multiple to rise for a bullish outlook.</p>\n<p>I’ll reiterate that there are risks to Tesla. The daily chart is leaning slightly bearish with that descending triangle, but we’re heading into the pre-earnings run-up that Tesla<i>usually</i>shines during. The weekly chart is showing signs of digestion rather than rolling over. There are competitive risks that aren’t new and will never go way, but the company is still building great EVs that are resonating with customers. Margins and FCF are booming comparatively speaking, and the stock is at roughly half the valuation it was a few months ago.</p>\n<p>All in all, Tesla almost certainly has a rocky road in front of it, but I’m still bullish given the weight of the evidence.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: A Lesson In Humility</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: A Lesson In Humility\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436295-tesla-a-lesson-in-humility><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla shares have pulled well back in a months-long period of weakness.\nWith earnings coming up, there looks to be a showdown of bulls and bears on the near-term horizon.\nI see Tesla's ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436295-tesla-a-lesson-in-humility\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436295-tesla-a-lesson-in-humility","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1176854050","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla shares have pulled well back in a months-long period of weakness.\nWith earnings coming up, there looks to be a showdown of bulls and bears on the near-term horizon.\nI see Tesla's fundamentals - and valuation - as having improved massively in recent months, and I'm therefore still quite bullish.\n\nAdrianHancu/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nSometimes in investing, our thesis, no matter how much we believe in it, doesn’t work. I’ve experienced that countless times personally, and I think pretty much everyone who tries their hand at growing capital through the financial markets does as well. The important thing is not to fall in love with a stock and let it destroy your portfolio, and in the case of EV mothershipTesla(TSLA), I certainly had my fair share of practice at letting go of a failed thesis recently.\nBack inearly April, I said it was time to buy Tesla based upon its fairly reliable history of running higher into earnings announcements. The stock was at $691 at the time and did move higher in the next couple of weeks, but as we can see from the below, the move didn’t stick. That caused me to rethink my position in the short-term with Tesla, and now that we are four weeks out from the next earnings report, we have a different situation on our hands.\nSource: StockCharts\nI’ve annotated several things on the daily chart because the situation is quite interesting for Tesla during this critical period leading up to the next earnings release. The first thing I’ll note is that the accumulation/distribution line remains very strong, having never wavered from its prior levels achieved during the massive rally that took place mostly in 2020. That’s a good sign because the bulls and bears remain roughly equally matched despite a share price that has given the bulls every reason to move on.\nMomentum is more of a mixed picture because the PPO and 14-day RSI are both showing some signs of positive divergence, but also signs that bullish momentum is nowhere near high enough to push the stock into another rally phase. On the divergence side, momentum is gradually moving higher while the share price bounces around, indicating that the worst of the selling is likely done, but that we’re in a digestion period. The 14-day RSI hasn’t yet crested the centerline in earnest, which again means that bullish momentum is fairly weak.\nOverall, I’d say momentum is showing what you might expect at this stage, which is that the selling pressure has abated, but we’re not in rally mode. Yet.\nFinally, the elephant in the room is the descending triangle I noted above, and I’ve added some extra bars at the end of the chart to show what the resolution of the triangle might look like. We can see at the current slope of the line that the triangle will likely resolve near the end of July, which just so happens to coincide with the earnings release. This is a bearish pattern so I don’t want to make everything seem like sunshine and lollipops, but the rest of the chart is mixed, so we’ll have to wait and see.\nThe earnings report, in my view, is going to be the catalyst one way or the other for the breakout from the triangle. Which direction it will go is anyone’s guess, but I’d be ready for a wild reaction to the earnings release in July.\nIf we look at a weekly chart, I see a much rosier picture.\nSource: StockCharts\nWe can see that the stock ran up massively in 2020 and took with it the accumulation/distribution line, as well as the momentum indicators, as you’d expect. But since the selling began, we see signs that the stock has simply worked off its overbought conditions, which looks bullish to me.\nThe 50-week moving average has served as support during this consolidation phase, and it currently stands at $575, so I’d watch that level if we see more selling. On the plus side, the accumulation/distribution line looks beautiful and again, is supportive of this selling being a digestion period rather than the end of the bull market for Tesla.\nMomentum would seem to support that as well, as the PPO and 14-week RSI are back at centerline support. What happens after this is critical, obviously, but the weekly chart doesn’t show Tesla as breaking down on a longer-term basis. The negative divergences we saw since 2020 began have given way to momentum resetting, which often happens before a new bull phase begins. With the earnings report looming in July, and the daily and weekly charts showing different pictures (at least to my eye), it’s going to be an interesting next four weeks for sure.\nFundamentals still bullish\nI’d sum up the chart as having a short-term set of challenges for the bulls, but longer-term, I still see Tesla going higher. On a fundamental basis, I think the conclusion is decidedly more bullish. Let’s start with revenue revisions, which have been nothing short of terrific.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nAll years are showing uptrends in revenue revisions, and in particular, the out years. Let us not forget that these positive revisions are occurring during a time when countless startups and internal combustion engine OGs like GM (GM), Ford (F) and Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) are investing tens of billions of dollars to take market share in EVs. None of this is new and it isn’t like the analyst community is surprised by these investments; Tesla is simply on a tremendous upward trajectory when it comes to growing revenue.\nCanaccordpointed out last week that the Model S Plaid Plus delay was likely due to the 4680 cell design not being ready for prime time. That very well could be the case, and it wouldn’t be the first time Tesla disappointed with a time frame it gave investors. Remember therobo-taxi claim?\nAt any rate, the company’s lineup continues to resonate with customers and now that capacity constraints should lessen greatly over the coming years – new factories in a few parts of the world will help – the path of least resistance for Tesla is no doubt higher. This will only get better as Tesla can decrease the per-unit cost of things like the batteries so it can better compete with mainstream automakers on price, and become a mainstream automaker rather than a niche manufacturer for the well-heeled.\nAnother thing scale is affording Tesla is monumental progress with profit margins. Below we have trailing-twelve-months gross margins, SG&A costs, and EBIT margin as a percentage of revenue.\nSource: TIKR.com\nAll three of these lines are moving in the right direction. Gross margins have been rising thanks to higher sales and production volumes, a trend that should continue so long as sales remain robust. In addition, Tesla is spending much less on an SG&A basis than it used to, which again, is the product of higher sales volume. SG&A used to be in the mid-20% range of revenue, which is unsustainable. Today, it’s only 10%, which means operating margins have gone quite positive, and with room to run in the future.\nMargins have always been an easy thing for the bears to point to, but that is simply no longer the case, and if you have a long holding period, the margin situation is going to work out in the bulls’ favor.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nThis is all pointing to ever-higher EPS estimates, as we can see above. Analysts continue to try and keep up with Tesla’s upward trajectory, and so long as sales volumes and margins continue their march higher, so will these lines. Again, this is a feather in the cap of the bulls.\nOther considerations\nTesla is not for the faint of heart, because it is volatile and we are at a point in the history of the automobile that an EV gold rush of sorts is occurring. Everyone is investing to win once the internal combustion engine is gone, but Tesla has a massive head start on the competition.\nEven so, there are risks to consider. First, Tesla could lose its technology lead over time as legacy manufacturers throw tens of billions of dollars at R&D on battery technology. Tesla is far and away the superior battery maker today, but that does not guarantee it stays that way. To be clear, I don’t see that as a viable outcome in the near-term, but ten years from now? Twenty? It's a risk.\nAnother risk is that Tesla uses its stock as a piggy bank, issuing shares to fund R&D, factory construction, and the like.\nSource: TIKR.com\nThe share count has nearly doubled in the past decade, which is pretty ugly from a shareholders’ perspective, as we usually only see this kind of dilution with REITs or BDCs that issue equity capital as a normal course of business. Manufacturing stocks don’t generally do anything like this, but Tesla has made it work. Still, you have to imagine it is possible that over a decade holding period, you’ll be diluted out of half of your ownership in the company. This also creates an uphill battle for EPS as earnings are spread over more and more shares, so I want to be clear this is an unequivocal negative for shareholders. However, let me now point you to what could possibly be the saving grace for this perma-dilution; free cash flow.\nSource: TIKR.com\nTesla’s trailing-twelve-months FCF has improved immensely in recent years, as the company is producing massive amounts of operating cash flow that it never did before, which is owed once again to sales volume and margin growth. Tesla has surpassed the point where it needs to constantly issue capital just to survive because it is creating its own through its operations. This is massively important for the bull case because it means the dilution we’ve seen in recent yearsshouldn’tbe necessary any longer.\nIndeed, if we look at net debt, we can see just how much Tesla’s balance sheet has improved, which again supports not having to dilute shareholders to stay afloat.\nSource: TIKR.com\nNet debt has turned into a net cash position of late, with Tesla having nearly $5 billion in cash and equivalents more than debt. Tesla’s financing situation has improved enormously, and that’s good for those of us that are bullish.\nIs it cheap?\nNot really. But then again revolutionary companies rarely are. The good news is that the price-to-sales ratio has halved since the peak earlier this year, but at 11x forward revenue, I cannot in good conscience call it cheap.\nSource: TIKR.com\nHowever, it is a lot cheaper than it was, and withrevenueslated to rise by more than half this year, and thendoubleagain by 2024, you don’t need the multiple to rise for a bullish outlook.\nI’ll reiterate that there are risks to Tesla. The daily chart is leaning slightly bearish with that descending triangle, but we’re heading into the pre-earnings run-up that Teslausuallyshines during. The weekly chart is showing signs of digestion rather than rolling over. There are competitive risks that aren’t new and will never go way, but the company is still building great EVs that are resonating with customers. Margins and FCF are booming comparatively speaking, and the stock is at roughly half the valuation it was a few months ago.\nAll in all, Tesla almost certainly has a rocky road in front of it, but I’m still bullish given the weight of the evidence.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128549503,"gmtCreate":1624525190102,"gmtModify":1634004881055,"author":{"id":"3581576661121192","authorId":"3581576661121192","name":"我是猪八戒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581576661121192","authorIdStr":"3581576661121192"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128549503","repostId":"2145004822","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128566727,"gmtCreate":1624524194869,"gmtModify":1634004890625,"author":{"id":"3581576661121192","authorId":"3581576661121192","name":"我是猪八戒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581576661121192","authorIdStr":"3581576661121192"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128566727","repostId":"1137537223","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137537223","pubTimestamp":1624523813,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137537223?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 16:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Pfizer: A Wide Moat Business At A Fair Price","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137537223","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAt its current price levels (~$39), an investment in Pfizer represents a wide moat business","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>At its current price levels (~$39), an investment in Pfizer represents a wide moat business for sale at a fair price.</li>\n <li>The moat is rooted in technological lead, scale, intellectual property, and a strong pipeline.</li>\n <li>As a result, the business enjoys high profitability, return on capital employed, and heathy perpetual growth prospects – the hallmarks of a long-term compounder.</li>\n <li>Investment at the current price provides excellent potential for double-digit return in the long term.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Thesis and Background</b></p>\n<p>The healthcare sector is a great place for value investors, ranging from legends like Warren Buffett to ordinary investors like myself for many good reasons. It caters to fundamental human needs that are not going to change or go away anytime soon. All signs show that the need will only intensify with population growth, longer life expectancy, more interconnected world, et al. The major players like Pfizer Inc (PFE), due to their established lead and scale, are especially well poised to capitalize on such secular trend.</p>\n<p>At its current price levels (~$39), an investment in PFE represents a wide moat business for sale at a fair price. The short-term risk is very manageable given the current entry valuation, the success with their COVID vaccine, and the support from the dividend yield. In the long term, thanks to their profitability and return on capital employed, investment at the current price provides excellent potential for double digit return.</p>\n<p>Before going into any further details, it would help to briefly summarize my investment philosophy to provide a context. I am a long-term, conservative, and value-oriented investor. I hold a rather concentrated portfolio with about a dozen stocks. I rarely buy and very rarely sell. So you will see me writing about a handful of holdings multiple times from different angles. If you like reading in-depth and multifaceted coverage on the same holdings, I am your guy.</p>\n<p>My goal for my stock holdings is to generate<b>D</b>ouble-<b>D</b>igit return during a<b>D</b>ecade, and that is why I nickname my portfolio the DDD portfolio. Currently my portfolio holds the following 9 stocks. Using the date Ifirst publishedthe DDD portfolio on 5/31/2021 as the inception date, its performance on a weekly basis is summarized in the following two charts. It has been a really short time compared to my horizon, but so far so good fortunately.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cb3acede81613b3761fd70078b79286\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\"></p>\n<p>Source: Author</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11117eef882381e86fc7ad1e929b15d8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source: Author</p>\n<p><b>The businesses and the moat</b></p>\n<p>Pfizer Inc. is a research-based, global biopharmaceutical leader engaged in the discovery, development, manufacture, and distribution of healthcare products. It offers medicines and vaccines in various therapeutic areas, encompassing internal medicine, oncology, vaccines, immunology, rare disease, et al.</p>\n<p>For pharmaceutical companies at this scale, it is all about A) bringing blockbuster drugs (with market value exceeding $1B per year) to market, and B) having a healthy pipeline of potential blockbusters. And PFE is doing a terrific job on both fronts as you can see from the following two charts.</p>\n<p>As seen from the first chart, PFE boasts a collection of blockbuster drugs including Vyndaqel ($1.2B sales in 2020), Prevnar ($5.8B sales), Xeljanz ($2.4B), et al. And in 2021, PFE just added another blockbuster into its production line: the Covid vaccine. PFE was the first to gain FDA approval for its COVID-19 vaccine, and the vaccine is already PFE's top-selling drug as of 2021 Q1. The vaccine brought in $3.4B of sales during 2021 Q1! These blockbuster drugs are about 5 years on average away from patent expiration.</p>\n<p>This where the pipeline comes in. As seen in the second chart, PFE also maintains a healthy pipeline to prepare for the future. This large pipeline consists of ~100 total drugs. The lifecycle for a drug development (from the lab to the market) could take more than a decade. And therefore, the drugs in the later stage of the development, i.e., Phase 3 or later, are more important. And as can be seen, PFE has a total of 33 of them currently. Not all of them will be a blockbuster. And here is how the scale of PFE matters. Thanks to its scale, it does not need all of them to be blockbusters. It can afford the inevitable misses.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/274b7e5bc8ed32603e922232dbdba5d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:Pfizer 2020 annual report</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eba34c481717e6f2cfaa6f316498aa2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"181\"></p>\n<p>Source: Pfizer 2020 annual report</p>\n<p><b>Profitability and Financial Strength</b></p>\n<p>Thanks to its technological lead and scale, PFE enjoys superior profitability and financial strengths both relative to other peers in the same sector and also to the overall market, as illustrated by the following chart. The profitability is simply superb on every metric - both in absolute terms and in relative terms when compared to its peers.</p>\n<p>The business is also in a very strong financial position, as exemplified by the next chart. Its interest coverage (operation income divided by interest expense) is more than 16x. In other words, it only takes about 6% of its operation income to cover its interest expenses. In contrast, the interest coverage for the overall market represented by S&amp;P 500 is about 6x. Also as shown by the orange line in the chart, thanks to its strong profitability (and terrific return on capital to be detailed later), the business can also afford to pay off pretty much all the remaining income as dividend after covering its debt and maintenance CAPEx.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2df9ddd5bfc780fb81922d0bf07dfb2f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\"></p>\n<p>Source: Seeking Alpha.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b29a25abfa0354c92c5dfb7ab49243ff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source: Author based on data from Seeking Alpha</p>\n<p><b>The valuation</b></p>\n<p>As can be seen from the following numbers in the table, at its current price levels, PEF is about fairly valued or slightly discounted depending on which valuation metric you use based on its historical valuations. In terms of absolute valuation, its current valuations (price/cash flow ratio around 14.5x) is also very reasonable for a wide moat business leader. Many consumer staple businesses (like food and drinks business) are valued above 20x cash flow because they cater to an eternal human need. Yet in my view, PFE caters to an equally eternal human need with a wider moat.</p>\n<p>As such, the short-term risk is very manageable given the current entry valuation, especially considering the upcoming boost from their COVID vaccine. And also, the above average dividend yield would help to support the return should any short term turmoil occur.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28f2c7c3ec96007a14b507da34b0eb02\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"88\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: author and Seeking Alpha</p>\n<p><b>Long-term return and perpetual growth rate</b></p>\n<p>If you, like this author, are a long-term investor who subscribes to the concepts of owner's earning, perpetual growth rate, and equity bond, then the long-term return is simpler. It is \"simply\" the summation of the owner's earning yield (\"OEY\") and the perpetual growth rate (\"PGR\"), i.e.,</p>\n<p>Longer-Term ROI = OEY + PGR</p>\n<p>Because in the long term, all fluctuations in valuation are averaged out (all luck at the end even out). And it doesn't really matter how the business uses the earnings (pay out as dividend, retained in the bank account, or repurchase stocks). As long as used sensibly (as PFE has done in the past), it will be reflected as a return to the business owner.</p>\n<p>OEY is the owner's earnings divided by the entry price. All the complications are in the estimation of the owner's earnings - the real economic earnings of the business, not the nominal accounting earnings. Here as a crude and conservative estimate, I will just use the free cash flow (\"FCF\") as the owner's earnings. It is conservative in the sense that rigorously speaking, the owner's earnings should be free cash flow plus the portion of CAPEx that is used to fuel the growth (i.e., the growth CAPEx). At its current price levels, the OEY is ~6.6% for PFE (~15x price to FCF).</p>\n<p>The next and more important item is the PGR. To understand and estimate it, we will need to first estimate the return on capital employed (\"ROCE\"). Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how much additional capital a business needs to invest in order to earn a given extra amount of income - a key to estimate the PGR. For businesses like PFE, I consider the following items capital actually employed:</p>\n<p>1. Working capital, including payables, receivables, inventory. These are the capitals required for the daily operation of their businesses.</p>\n<p>2. Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment. These are the capitals required to actually conduct business and manufacture their products.</p>\n<p>3. There are the following two possible routes here:</p>\n<p>3.1. The first route is to include research and development expenses as a capital investment. As mentioned above, the R&amp;D is the lifeblood for a sustainable pharmaceutical business and is not really an optional expense.</p>\n<p>3.2. The second route is to amortize its intangible book value, mainly consisting of intellectual property and patents. This essentially treats the intellectual properties as capital with a finite lifetime, which I will assume to be five years, the average number of years away from its current blockbuster drugs' patent expiration.</p>\n<p>Based on the above considerations, the ROCE of PFE over the past decade are shown below. As seen, both approaches provided similar results, a good sign of the assumptions. PFE was able to maintain a remarkably high and stable ROCE over the long term: on average 44% for the past decade. To put things in perspective, as detailed in myprevious articlesfor Lockheed Martin (LMT) and General Dynamics (GD), ROCEs for these defense business leaders, who almost enjoy a monopoly moat, are \"only\" in the range of 20% to 30%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bcb7c6b4fc7360c3140a7cbcd7aa511\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\"></p>\n<p>Source: Author and Seeking Alpha</p>\n<p>With a 44% ROCE, it means that even if PFE only reinvests 1/10 of its earnings to expand the capital employed, it could maintain a 4.4% PGR (PGR = ROCE * fraction of earnings reinvested = 10% * 44% = 4.4%). And 10% reinvestment rate is indeed the situation here for PFE based on my analyses. As aforementioned, this is a reason that PFE can afford to pay off pretty much all the remaining income as dividend after covering its debt and maintenance CAPEx as dividend (or share repurchase). Of course, another reason is that businesses at this scale simply are not able to find that many opportunities to reinvest their earnings. But after all, 4.4% PGR already makes it a long term compounder with 10% income reinvested!</p>\n<p>Now we have both pieces of the puzzle in place to estimate the long-term return. At its current price levels, the OEY is estimated to be ~6.6% for PFE (~15x price to FCF), and the PGR is about 4.4%. So the total return in the long term at current valuation would be a double digit around 11% as shown in the chart below. Also as seen, even when ROCE fluctuates somewhat, the fluctuations wouldn't change the long-term return dramatically.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc98d9c0dd33069c7237e253e96f624b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source: Author and Seeking Alpha.</p>\n<p>And for those of us who would like to wait for a better entry price, the next chart shows how much the long-term return potential would change as a function of the entry price. As can be seen, the long-term return potential doesn't change that much within a pretty wide range of entry price, as shown in the green box. This probably confirms something that you've already heard before - if you hold something for the long term, the entry price does not matter that much.</p>\n<p>However, many investors seem to interpret this one-sided and I'd like to do a bit of hairsplitting here. The above statement refers to the long-term RATE of return, not the absolute DOLLAR AMOUNT of return. When your entry price is decreased by 10%, yes, it is correct that this wouldn't impact your long-term rate of return by a lot as seen. But a 10% lower entry price would give you at least 10% more return in absolute dollar amount - because you get to buy 10% more shares with the same dollar amount you have, plus the whatever extra return brought about by the higher RATE of return.</p>\n<p>And as a final note before ending this section, this might be the most valuable insight that I've learned by studying Warren Buffett's investment philosophy. The insight really is that I do not need a business with double-digit growth to generate double-digit returns. A reliable business that can offer a stable growth at a boring rate of a few percent (like ~4% in the examples of PFE) can already provide double-digit returns with good certainty as long as A) they are purchased at a reasonable valuation, and B) they have ROCE sufficiently high so that the growth can be driven by reinvesting a small fraction of the income. In the long run, assuming a growth rate more than a few percent probably is a dangerous assumption to start with anyway.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cca693c6f94c74a4aebd1de7b8392612\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\"></p>\n<p>Source: Author and Seeking Alpha</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion and final thoughts</b></p>\n<p>The healthcare sector is a great place for value investors and enjoys long-term secular headwinds. Major players like Pfizer, due to their established lead and scale, are especially well-poised to capitalize on such secular trend. At its current price levels (~$39), an investment in PFE represents a wide moat business for sale at a fair price. The short-term risk is very manageable given the current entry valuation, the success with their COVID vaccine, and the support from the dividend yield. In the long term, the business features all the hallmarks of a long-term compounder - high profitability, high return on capital employed, and healthy perpetual growth prospects. An investment at the current price provides excellent potential for double-digit return in the long term.</p>\n<p>I am not buying only because my portfolio already holds enough healthcare stocks, which have similar return/risk profiles as I see. I just cannot have all of them and have to choose.</p>\n<p>Thanks for reading! And look forward to hearing your thoughts and comments.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pfizer: A Wide Moat Business At A Fair Price</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPfizer: A Wide Moat Business At A Fair Price\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 16:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436314-pfizer-wide-moat-business-fair-price><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAt its current price levels (~$39), an investment in Pfizer represents a wide moat business for sale at a fair price.\nThe moat is rooted in technological lead, scale, intellectual property, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436314-pfizer-wide-moat-business-fair-price\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PFE":"辉瑞"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436314-pfizer-wide-moat-business-fair-price","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1137537223","content_text":"Summary\n\nAt its current price levels (~$39), an investment in Pfizer represents a wide moat business for sale at a fair price.\nThe moat is rooted in technological lead, scale, intellectual property, and a strong pipeline.\nAs a result, the business enjoys high profitability, return on capital employed, and heathy perpetual growth prospects – the hallmarks of a long-term compounder.\nInvestment at the current price provides excellent potential for double-digit return in the long term.\n\nThesis and Background\nThe healthcare sector is a great place for value investors, ranging from legends like Warren Buffett to ordinary investors like myself for many good reasons. It caters to fundamental human needs that are not going to change or go away anytime soon. All signs show that the need will only intensify with population growth, longer life expectancy, more interconnected world, et al. The major players like Pfizer Inc (PFE), due to their established lead and scale, are especially well poised to capitalize on such secular trend.\nAt its current price levels (~$39), an investment in PFE represents a wide moat business for sale at a fair price. The short-term risk is very manageable given the current entry valuation, the success with their COVID vaccine, and the support from the dividend yield. In the long term, thanks to their profitability and return on capital employed, investment at the current price provides excellent potential for double digit return.\nBefore going into any further details, it would help to briefly summarize my investment philosophy to provide a context. I am a long-term, conservative, and value-oriented investor. I hold a rather concentrated portfolio with about a dozen stocks. I rarely buy and very rarely sell. So you will see me writing about a handful of holdings multiple times from different angles. If you like reading in-depth and multifaceted coverage on the same holdings, I am your guy.\nMy goal for my stock holdings is to generateDouble-Digit return during aDecade, and that is why I nickname my portfolio the DDD portfolio. Currently my portfolio holds the following 9 stocks. Using the date Ifirst publishedthe DDD portfolio on 5/31/2021 as the inception date, its performance on a weekly basis is summarized in the following two charts. It has been a really short time compared to my horizon, but so far so good fortunately.\n\nSource: Author\n\nSource: Author\nThe businesses and the moat\nPfizer Inc. is a research-based, global biopharmaceutical leader engaged in the discovery, development, manufacture, and distribution of healthcare products. It offers medicines and vaccines in various therapeutic areas, encompassing internal medicine, oncology, vaccines, immunology, rare disease, et al.\nFor pharmaceutical companies at this scale, it is all about A) bringing blockbuster drugs (with market value exceeding $1B per year) to market, and B) having a healthy pipeline of potential blockbusters. And PFE is doing a terrific job on both fronts as you can see from the following two charts.\nAs seen from the first chart, PFE boasts a collection of blockbuster drugs including Vyndaqel ($1.2B sales in 2020), Prevnar ($5.8B sales), Xeljanz ($2.4B), et al. And in 2021, PFE just added another blockbuster into its production line: the Covid vaccine. PFE was the first to gain FDA approval for its COVID-19 vaccine, and the vaccine is already PFE's top-selling drug as of 2021 Q1. The vaccine brought in $3.4B of sales during 2021 Q1! These blockbuster drugs are about 5 years on average away from patent expiration.\nThis where the pipeline comes in. As seen in the second chart, PFE also maintains a healthy pipeline to prepare for the future. This large pipeline consists of ~100 total drugs. The lifecycle for a drug development (from the lab to the market) could take more than a decade. And therefore, the drugs in the later stage of the development, i.e., Phase 3 or later, are more important. And as can be seen, PFE has a total of 33 of them currently. Not all of them will be a blockbuster. And here is how the scale of PFE matters. Thanks to its scale, it does not need all of them to be blockbusters. It can afford the inevitable misses.\n\nSource:Pfizer 2020 annual report\n\nSource: Pfizer 2020 annual report\nProfitability and Financial Strength\nThanks to its technological lead and scale, PFE enjoys superior profitability and financial strengths both relative to other peers in the same sector and also to the overall market, as illustrated by the following chart. The profitability is simply superb on every metric - both in absolute terms and in relative terms when compared to its peers.\nThe business is also in a very strong financial position, as exemplified by the next chart. Its interest coverage (operation income divided by interest expense) is more than 16x. In other words, it only takes about 6% of its operation income to cover its interest expenses. In contrast, the interest coverage for the overall market represented by S&P 500 is about 6x. Also as shown by the orange line in the chart, thanks to its strong profitability (and terrific return on capital to be detailed later), the business can also afford to pay off pretty much all the remaining income as dividend after covering its debt and maintenance CAPEx.\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha.\n\nSource: Author based on data from Seeking Alpha\nThe valuation\nAs can be seen from the following numbers in the table, at its current price levels, PEF is about fairly valued or slightly discounted depending on which valuation metric you use based on its historical valuations. In terms of absolute valuation, its current valuations (price/cash flow ratio around 14.5x) is also very reasonable for a wide moat business leader. Many consumer staple businesses (like food and drinks business) are valued above 20x cash flow because they cater to an eternal human need. Yet in my view, PFE caters to an equally eternal human need with a wider moat.\nAs such, the short-term risk is very manageable given the current entry valuation, especially considering the upcoming boost from their COVID vaccine. And also, the above average dividend yield would help to support the return should any short term turmoil occur.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha\nLong-term return and perpetual growth rate\nIf you, like this author, are a long-term investor who subscribes to the concepts of owner's earning, perpetual growth rate, and equity bond, then the long-term return is simpler. It is \"simply\" the summation of the owner's earning yield (\"OEY\") and the perpetual growth rate (\"PGR\"), i.e.,\nLonger-Term ROI = OEY + PGR\nBecause in the long term, all fluctuations in valuation are averaged out (all luck at the end even out). And it doesn't really matter how the business uses the earnings (pay out as dividend, retained in the bank account, or repurchase stocks). As long as used sensibly (as PFE has done in the past), it will be reflected as a return to the business owner.\nOEY is the owner's earnings divided by the entry price. All the complications are in the estimation of the owner's earnings - the real economic earnings of the business, not the nominal accounting earnings. Here as a crude and conservative estimate, I will just use the free cash flow (\"FCF\") as the owner's earnings. It is conservative in the sense that rigorously speaking, the owner's earnings should be free cash flow plus the portion of CAPEx that is used to fuel the growth (i.e., the growth CAPEx). At its current price levels, the OEY is ~6.6% for PFE (~15x price to FCF).\nThe next and more important item is the PGR. To understand and estimate it, we will need to first estimate the return on capital employed (\"ROCE\"). Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how much additional capital a business needs to invest in order to earn a given extra amount of income - a key to estimate the PGR. For businesses like PFE, I consider the following items capital actually employed:\n1. Working capital, including payables, receivables, inventory. These are the capitals required for the daily operation of their businesses.\n2. Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment. These are the capitals required to actually conduct business and manufacture their products.\n3. There are the following two possible routes here:\n3.1. The first route is to include research and development expenses as a capital investment. As mentioned above, the R&D is the lifeblood for a sustainable pharmaceutical business and is not really an optional expense.\n3.2. The second route is to amortize its intangible book value, mainly consisting of intellectual property and patents. This essentially treats the intellectual properties as capital with a finite lifetime, which I will assume to be five years, the average number of years away from its current blockbuster drugs' patent expiration.\nBased on the above considerations, the ROCE of PFE over the past decade are shown below. As seen, both approaches provided similar results, a good sign of the assumptions. PFE was able to maintain a remarkably high and stable ROCE over the long term: on average 44% for the past decade. To put things in perspective, as detailed in myprevious articlesfor Lockheed Martin (LMT) and General Dynamics (GD), ROCEs for these defense business leaders, who almost enjoy a monopoly moat, are \"only\" in the range of 20% to 30%.\n\nSource: Author and Seeking Alpha\nWith a 44% ROCE, it means that even if PFE only reinvests 1/10 of its earnings to expand the capital employed, it could maintain a 4.4% PGR (PGR = ROCE * fraction of earnings reinvested = 10% * 44% = 4.4%). And 10% reinvestment rate is indeed the situation here for PFE based on my analyses. As aforementioned, this is a reason that PFE can afford to pay off pretty much all the remaining income as dividend after covering its debt and maintenance CAPEx as dividend (or share repurchase). Of course, another reason is that businesses at this scale simply are not able to find that many opportunities to reinvest their earnings. But after all, 4.4% PGR already makes it a long term compounder with 10% income reinvested!\nNow we have both pieces of the puzzle in place to estimate the long-term return. At its current price levels, the OEY is estimated to be ~6.6% for PFE (~15x price to FCF), and the PGR is about 4.4%. So the total return in the long term at current valuation would be a double digit around 11% as shown in the chart below. Also as seen, even when ROCE fluctuates somewhat, the fluctuations wouldn't change the long-term return dramatically.\n\nSource: Author and Seeking Alpha.\nAnd for those of us who would like to wait for a better entry price, the next chart shows how much the long-term return potential would change as a function of the entry price. As can be seen, the long-term return potential doesn't change that much within a pretty wide range of entry price, as shown in the green box. This probably confirms something that you've already heard before - if you hold something for the long term, the entry price does not matter that much.\nHowever, many investors seem to interpret this one-sided and I'd like to do a bit of hairsplitting here. The above statement refers to the long-term RATE of return, not the absolute DOLLAR AMOUNT of return. When your entry price is decreased by 10%, yes, it is correct that this wouldn't impact your long-term rate of return by a lot as seen. But a 10% lower entry price would give you at least 10% more return in absolute dollar amount - because you get to buy 10% more shares with the same dollar amount you have, plus the whatever extra return brought about by the higher RATE of return.\nAnd as a final note before ending this section, this might be the most valuable insight that I've learned by studying Warren Buffett's investment philosophy. The insight really is that I do not need a business with double-digit growth to generate double-digit returns. A reliable business that can offer a stable growth at a boring rate of a few percent (like ~4% in the examples of PFE) can already provide double-digit returns with good certainty as long as A) they are purchased at a reasonable valuation, and B) they have ROCE sufficiently high so that the growth can be driven by reinvesting a small fraction of the income. In the long run, assuming a growth rate more than a few percent probably is a dangerous assumption to start with anyway.\n\nSource: Author and Seeking Alpha\nConclusion and final thoughts\nThe healthcare sector is a great place for value investors and enjoys long-term secular headwinds. Major players like Pfizer, due to their established lead and scale, are especially well-poised to capitalize on such secular trend. At its current price levels (~$39), an investment in PFE represents a wide moat business for sale at a fair price. The short-term risk is very manageable given the current entry valuation, the success with their COVID vaccine, and the support from the dividend yield. In the long term, the business features all the hallmarks of a long-term compounder - high profitability, high return on capital employed, and healthy perpetual growth prospects. An investment at the current price provides excellent potential for double-digit return in the long term.\nI am not buying only because my portfolio already holds enough healthcare stocks, which have similar return/risk profiles as I see. I just cannot have all of them and have to choose.\nThanks for reading! And look forward to hearing your thoughts and comments.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":128566901,"gmtCreate":1624524158503,"gmtModify":1634004890995,"author":{"id":"3581576661121192","authorId":"3581576661121192","name":"我是猪八戒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581576661121192","authorIdStr":"3581576661121192"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128566901","repostId":"1166720474","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":121065635,"gmtCreate":1624445206327,"gmtModify":1634006074049,"author":{"id":"3581576661121192","authorId":"3581576661121192","name":"我是猪八戒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581576661121192","authorIdStr":"3581576661121192"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","listText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","text":"[暗中观察]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121065635","repostId":"1127447179","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":123440115,"gmtCreate":1624436274237,"gmtModify":1634006163231,"author":{"id":"3581576661121192","authorId":"3581576661121192","name":"我是猪八戒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581576661121192","authorIdStr":"3581576661121192"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary/*9O8T4N-index.html?feature=Banner&amp;Page=Me&amp;lang=en_US&amp;skin=1&amp;edition=fundamental&amp;invite=9O8T4N","listText":"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary/*9O8T4N-index.html?feature=Banner&amp;Page=Me&amp;lang=en_US&amp;skin=1&amp;edition=fundamental&amp;invite=9O8T4N","text":"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary/*9O8T4N-index.html?feature=Banner&Page=Me&lang=en_US&skin=1&edition=fundamental&invite=9O8T4N","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123440115","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129118952,"gmtCreate":1624364720876,"gmtModify":1634007262154,"author":{"id":"3581576661121192","authorId":"3581576661121192","name":"我是猪八戒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581576661121192","authorIdStr":"3581576661121192"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129118952","repostId":"1195130148","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120744353,"gmtCreate":1624339991972,"gmtModify":1634007524910,"author":{"id":"3581576661121192","authorId":"3581576661121192","name":"我是猪八戒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581576661121192","authorIdStr":"3581576661121192"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Join Tiger Brokers with me and receive stock vouchers of up to 1 million!https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary/*9O8T4N-index.html?feature=Banner&amp;Page=Me&amp;lang=en_US&amp;skin=1&amp;edition=fundamental&amp;invite=9O8T4N&amp;share=WhatsAPP","listText":"Join Tiger Brokers with me and receive stock vouchers of up to 1 million!https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary/*9O8T4N-index.html?feature=Banner&amp;Page=Me&amp;lang=en_US&amp;skin=1&amp;edition=fundamental&amp;invite=9O8T4N&amp;share=WhatsAPP","text":"Join Tiger Brokers with me and receive stock vouchers of up to 1 million!https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary/*9O8T4N-index.html?feature=Banner&Page=Me&lang=en_US&skin=1&edition=fundamental&invite=9O8T4N&share=WhatsAPP","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120744353","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":679,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":128566727,"gmtCreate":1624524194869,"gmtModify":1634004890625,"author":{"id":"3581576661121192","authorId":"3581576661121192","name":"我是猪八戒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581576661121192","idStr":"3581576661121192"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128566727","repostId":"1137537223","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137537223","pubTimestamp":1624523813,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137537223?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 16:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Pfizer: A Wide Moat Business At A Fair Price","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137537223","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAt its current price levels (~$39), an investment in Pfizer represents a wide moat business","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>At its current price levels (~$39), an investment in Pfizer represents a wide moat business for sale at a fair price.</li>\n <li>The moat is rooted in technological lead, scale, intellectual property, and a strong pipeline.</li>\n <li>As a result, the business enjoys high profitability, return on capital employed, and heathy perpetual growth prospects – the hallmarks of a long-term compounder.</li>\n <li>Investment at the current price provides excellent potential for double-digit return in the long term.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Thesis and Background</b></p>\n<p>The healthcare sector is a great place for value investors, ranging from legends like Warren Buffett to ordinary investors like myself for many good reasons. It caters to fundamental human needs that are not going to change or go away anytime soon. All signs show that the need will only intensify with population growth, longer life expectancy, more interconnected world, et al. The major players like Pfizer Inc (PFE), due to their established lead and scale, are especially well poised to capitalize on such secular trend.</p>\n<p>At its current price levels (~$39), an investment in PFE represents a wide moat business for sale at a fair price. The short-term risk is very manageable given the current entry valuation, the success with their COVID vaccine, and the support from the dividend yield. In the long term, thanks to their profitability and return on capital employed, investment at the current price provides excellent potential for double digit return.</p>\n<p>Before going into any further details, it would help to briefly summarize my investment philosophy to provide a context. I am a long-term, conservative, and value-oriented investor. I hold a rather concentrated portfolio with about a dozen stocks. I rarely buy and very rarely sell. So you will see me writing about a handful of holdings multiple times from different angles. If you like reading in-depth and multifaceted coverage on the same holdings, I am your guy.</p>\n<p>My goal for my stock holdings is to generate<b>D</b>ouble-<b>D</b>igit return during a<b>D</b>ecade, and that is why I nickname my portfolio the DDD portfolio. Currently my portfolio holds the following 9 stocks. Using the date Ifirst publishedthe DDD portfolio on 5/31/2021 as the inception date, its performance on a weekly basis is summarized in the following two charts. It has been a really short time compared to my horizon, but so far so good fortunately.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cb3acede81613b3761fd70078b79286\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\"></p>\n<p>Source: Author</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11117eef882381e86fc7ad1e929b15d8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source: Author</p>\n<p><b>The businesses and the moat</b></p>\n<p>Pfizer Inc. is a research-based, global biopharmaceutical leader engaged in the discovery, development, manufacture, and distribution of healthcare products. It offers medicines and vaccines in various therapeutic areas, encompassing internal medicine, oncology, vaccines, immunology, rare disease, et al.</p>\n<p>For pharmaceutical companies at this scale, it is all about A) bringing blockbuster drugs (with market value exceeding $1B per year) to market, and B) having a healthy pipeline of potential blockbusters. And PFE is doing a terrific job on both fronts as you can see from the following two charts.</p>\n<p>As seen from the first chart, PFE boasts a collection of blockbuster drugs including Vyndaqel ($1.2B sales in 2020), Prevnar ($5.8B sales), Xeljanz ($2.4B), et al. And in 2021, PFE just added another blockbuster into its production line: the Covid vaccine. PFE was the first to gain FDA approval for its COVID-19 vaccine, and the vaccine is already PFE's top-selling drug as of 2021 Q1. The vaccine brought in $3.4B of sales during 2021 Q1! These blockbuster drugs are about 5 years on average away from patent expiration.</p>\n<p>This where the pipeline comes in. As seen in the second chart, PFE also maintains a healthy pipeline to prepare for the future. This large pipeline consists of ~100 total drugs. The lifecycle for a drug development (from the lab to the market) could take more than a decade. And therefore, the drugs in the later stage of the development, i.e., Phase 3 or later, are more important. And as can be seen, PFE has a total of 33 of them currently. Not all of them will be a blockbuster. And here is how the scale of PFE matters. Thanks to its scale, it does not need all of them to be blockbusters. It can afford the inevitable misses.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/274b7e5bc8ed32603e922232dbdba5d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:Pfizer 2020 annual report</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eba34c481717e6f2cfaa6f316498aa2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"181\"></p>\n<p>Source: Pfizer 2020 annual report</p>\n<p><b>Profitability and Financial Strength</b></p>\n<p>Thanks to its technological lead and scale, PFE enjoys superior profitability and financial strengths both relative to other peers in the same sector and also to the overall market, as illustrated by the following chart. The profitability is simply superb on every metric - both in absolute terms and in relative terms when compared to its peers.</p>\n<p>The business is also in a very strong financial position, as exemplified by the next chart. Its interest coverage (operation income divided by interest expense) is more than 16x. In other words, it only takes about 6% of its operation income to cover its interest expenses. In contrast, the interest coverage for the overall market represented by S&amp;P 500 is about 6x. Also as shown by the orange line in the chart, thanks to its strong profitability (and terrific return on capital to be detailed later), the business can also afford to pay off pretty much all the remaining income as dividend after covering its debt and maintenance CAPEx.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2df9ddd5bfc780fb81922d0bf07dfb2f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\"></p>\n<p>Source: Seeking Alpha.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b29a25abfa0354c92c5dfb7ab49243ff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source: Author based on data from Seeking Alpha</p>\n<p><b>The valuation</b></p>\n<p>As can be seen from the following numbers in the table, at its current price levels, PEF is about fairly valued or slightly discounted depending on which valuation metric you use based on its historical valuations. In terms of absolute valuation, its current valuations (price/cash flow ratio around 14.5x) is also very reasonable for a wide moat business leader. Many consumer staple businesses (like food and drinks business) are valued above 20x cash flow because they cater to an eternal human need. Yet in my view, PFE caters to an equally eternal human need with a wider moat.</p>\n<p>As such, the short-term risk is very manageable given the current entry valuation, especially considering the upcoming boost from their COVID vaccine. And also, the above average dividend yield would help to support the return should any short term turmoil occur.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28f2c7c3ec96007a14b507da34b0eb02\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"88\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: author and Seeking Alpha</p>\n<p><b>Long-term return and perpetual growth rate</b></p>\n<p>If you, like this author, are a long-term investor who subscribes to the concepts of owner's earning, perpetual growth rate, and equity bond, then the long-term return is simpler. It is \"simply\" the summation of the owner's earning yield (\"OEY\") and the perpetual growth rate (\"PGR\"), i.e.,</p>\n<p>Longer-Term ROI = OEY + PGR</p>\n<p>Because in the long term, all fluctuations in valuation are averaged out (all luck at the end even out). And it doesn't really matter how the business uses the earnings (pay out as dividend, retained in the bank account, or repurchase stocks). As long as used sensibly (as PFE has done in the past), it will be reflected as a return to the business owner.</p>\n<p>OEY is the owner's earnings divided by the entry price. All the complications are in the estimation of the owner's earnings - the real economic earnings of the business, not the nominal accounting earnings. Here as a crude and conservative estimate, I will just use the free cash flow (\"FCF\") as the owner's earnings. It is conservative in the sense that rigorously speaking, the owner's earnings should be free cash flow plus the portion of CAPEx that is used to fuel the growth (i.e., the growth CAPEx). At its current price levels, the OEY is ~6.6% for PFE (~15x price to FCF).</p>\n<p>The next and more important item is the PGR. To understand and estimate it, we will need to first estimate the return on capital employed (\"ROCE\"). Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how much additional capital a business needs to invest in order to earn a given extra amount of income - a key to estimate the PGR. For businesses like PFE, I consider the following items capital actually employed:</p>\n<p>1. Working capital, including payables, receivables, inventory. These are the capitals required for the daily operation of their businesses.</p>\n<p>2. Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment. These are the capitals required to actually conduct business and manufacture their products.</p>\n<p>3. There are the following two possible routes here:</p>\n<p>3.1. The first route is to include research and development expenses as a capital investment. As mentioned above, the R&amp;D is the lifeblood for a sustainable pharmaceutical business and is not really an optional expense.</p>\n<p>3.2. The second route is to amortize its intangible book value, mainly consisting of intellectual property and patents. This essentially treats the intellectual properties as capital with a finite lifetime, which I will assume to be five years, the average number of years away from its current blockbuster drugs' patent expiration.</p>\n<p>Based on the above considerations, the ROCE of PFE over the past decade are shown below. As seen, both approaches provided similar results, a good sign of the assumptions. PFE was able to maintain a remarkably high and stable ROCE over the long term: on average 44% for the past decade. To put things in perspective, as detailed in myprevious articlesfor Lockheed Martin (LMT) and General Dynamics (GD), ROCEs for these defense business leaders, who almost enjoy a monopoly moat, are \"only\" in the range of 20% to 30%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bcb7c6b4fc7360c3140a7cbcd7aa511\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\"></p>\n<p>Source: Author and Seeking Alpha</p>\n<p>With a 44% ROCE, it means that even if PFE only reinvests 1/10 of its earnings to expand the capital employed, it could maintain a 4.4% PGR (PGR = ROCE * fraction of earnings reinvested = 10% * 44% = 4.4%). And 10% reinvestment rate is indeed the situation here for PFE based on my analyses. As aforementioned, this is a reason that PFE can afford to pay off pretty much all the remaining income as dividend after covering its debt and maintenance CAPEx as dividend (or share repurchase). Of course, another reason is that businesses at this scale simply are not able to find that many opportunities to reinvest their earnings. But after all, 4.4% PGR already makes it a long term compounder with 10% income reinvested!</p>\n<p>Now we have both pieces of the puzzle in place to estimate the long-term return. At its current price levels, the OEY is estimated to be ~6.6% for PFE (~15x price to FCF), and the PGR is about 4.4%. So the total return in the long term at current valuation would be a double digit around 11% as shown in the chart below. Also as seen, even when ROCE fluctuates somewhat, the fluctuations wouldn't change the long-term return dramatically.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc98d9c0dd33069c7237e253e96f624b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source: Author and Seeking Alpha.</p>\n<p>And for those of us who would like to wait for a better entry price, the next chart shows how much the long-term return potential would change as a function of the entry price. As can be seen, the long-term return potential doesn't change that much within a pretty wide range of entry price, as shown in the green box. This probably confirms something that you've already heard before - if you hold something for the long term, the entry price does not matter that much.</p>\n<p>However, many investors seem to interpret this one-sided and I'd like to do a bit of hairsplitting here. The above statement refers to the long-term RATE of return, not the absolute DOLLAR AMOUNT of return. When your entry price is decreased by 10%, yes, it is correct that this wouldn't impact your long-term rate of return by a lot as seen. But a 10% lower entry price would give you at least 10% more return in absolute dollar amount - because you get to buy 10% more shares with the same dollar amount you have, plus the whatever extra return brought about by the higher RATE of return.</p>\n<p>And as a final note before ending this section, this might be the most valuable insight that I've learned by studying Warren Buffett's investment philosophy. The insight really is that I do not need a business with double-digit growth to generate double-digit returns. A reliable business that can offer a stable growth at a boring rate of a few percent (like ~4% in the examples of PFE) can already provide double-digit returns with good certainty as long as A) they are purchased at a reasonable valuation, and B) they have ROCE sufficiently high so that the growth can be driven by reinvesting a small fraction of the income. In the long run, assuming a growth rate more than a few percent probably is a dangerous assumption to start with anyway.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cca693c6f94c74a4aebd1de7b8392612\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\"></p>\n<p>Source: Author and Seeking Alpha</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion and final thoughts</b></p>\n<p>The healthcare sector is a great place for value investors and enjoys long-term secular headwinds. Major players like Pfizer, due to their established lead and scale, are especially well-poised to capitalize on such secular trend. At its current price levels (~$39), an investment in PFE represents a wide moat business for sale at a fair price. The short-term risk is very manageable given the current entry valuation, the success with their COVID vaccine, and the support from the dividend yield. In the long term, the business features all the hallmarks of a long-term compounder - high profitability, high return on capital employed, and healthy perpetual growth prospects. An investment at the current price provides excellent potential for double-digit return in the long term.</p>\n<p>I am not buying only because my portfolio already holds enough healthcare stocks, which have similar return/risk profiles as I see. I just cannot have all of them and have to choose.</p>\n<p>Thanks for reading! And look forward to hearing your thoughts and comments.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pfizer: A Wide Moat Business At A Fair Price</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPfizer: A Wide Moat Business At A Fair Price\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 16:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436314-pfizer-wide-moat-business-fair-price><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAt its current price levels (~$39), an investment in Pfizer represents a wide moat business for sale at a fair price.\nThe moat is rooted in technological lead, scale, intellectual property, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436314-pfizer-wide-moat-business-fair-price\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PFE":"辉瑞"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436314-pfizer-wide-moat-business-fair-price","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1137537223","content_text":"Summary\n\nAt its current price levels (~$39), an investment in Pfizer represents a wide moat business for sale at a fair price.\nThe moat is rooted in technological lead, scale, intellectual property, and a strong pipeline.\nAs a result, the business enjoys high profitability, return on capital employed, and heathy perpetual growth prospects – the hallmarks of a long-term compounder.\nInvestment at the current price provides excellent potential for double-digit return in the long term.\n\nThesis and Background\nThe healthcare sector is a great place for value investors, ranging from legends like Warren Buffett to ordinary investors like myself for many good reasons. It caters to fundamental human needs that are not going to change or go away anytime soon. All signs show that the need will only intensify with population growth, longer life expectancy, more interconnected world, et al. The major players like Pfizer Inc (PFE), due to their established lead and scale, are especially well poised to capitalize on such secular trend.\nAt its current price levels (~$39), an investment in PFE represents a wide moat business for sale at a fair price. The short-term risk is very manageable given the current entry valuation, the success with their COVID vaccine, and the support from the dividend yield. In the long term, thanks to their profitability and return on capital employed, investment at the current price provides excellent potential for double digit return.\nBefore going into any further details, it would help to briefly summarize my investment philosophy to provide a context. I am a long-term, conservative, and value-oriented investor. I hold a rather concentrated portfolio with about a dozen stocks. I rarely buy and very rarely sell. So you will see me writing about a handful of holdings multiple times from different angles. If you like reading in-depth and multifaceted coverage on the same holdings, I am your guy.\nMy goal for my stock holdings is to generateDouble-Digit return during aDecade, and that is why I nickname my portfolio the DDD portfolio. Currently my portfolio holds the following 9 stocks. Using the date Ifirst publishedthe DDD portfolio on 5/31/2021 as the inception date, its performance on a weekly basis is summarized in the following two charts. It has been a really short time compared to my horizon, but so far so good fortunately.\n\nSource: Author\n\nSource: Author\nThe businesses and the moat\nPfizer Inc. is a research-based, global biopharmaceutical leader engaged in the discovery, development, manufacture, and distribution of healthcare products. It offers medicines and vaccines in various therapeutic areas, encompassing internal medicine, oncology, vaccines, immunology, rare disease, et al.\nFor pharmaceutical companies at this scale, it is all about A) bringing blockbuster drugs (with market value exceeding $1B per year) to market, and B) having a healthy pipeline of potential blockbusters. And PFE is doing a terrific job on both fronts as you can see from the following two charts.\nAs seen from the first chart, PFE boasts a collection of blockbuster drugs including Vyndaqel ($1.2B sales in 2020), Prevnar ($5.8B sales), Xeljanz ($2.4B), et al. And in 2021, PFE just added another blockbuster into its production line: the Covid vaccine. PFE was the first to gain FDA approval for its COVID-19 vaccine, and the vaccine is already PFE's top-selling drug as of 2021 Q1. The vaccine brought in $3.4B of sales during 2021 Q1! These blockbuster drugs are about 5 years on average away from patent expiration.\nThis where the pipeline comes in. As seen in the second chart, PFE also maintains a healthy pipeline to prepare for the future. This large pipeline consists of ~100 total drugs. The lifecycle for a drug development (from the lab to the market) could take more than a decade. And therefore, the drugs in the later stage of the development, i.e., Phase 3 or later, are more important. And as can be seen, PFE has a total of 33 of them currently. Not all of them will be a blockbuster. And here is how the scale of PFE matters. Thanks to its scale, it does not need all of them to be blockbusters. It can afford the inevitable misses.\n\nSource:Pfizer 2020 annual report\n\nSource: Pfizer 2020 annual report\nProfitability and Financial Strength\nThanks to its technological lead and scale, PFE enjoys superior profitability and financial strengths both relative to other peers in the same sector and also to the overall market, as illustrated by the following chart. The profitability is simply superb on every metric - both in absolute terms and in relative terms when compared to its peers.\nThe business is also in a very strong financial position, as exemplified by the next chart. Its interest coverage (operation income divided by interest expense) is more than 16x. In other words, it only takes about 6% of its operation income to cover its interest expenses. In contrast, the interest coverage for the overall market represented by S&P 500 is about 6x. Also as shown by the orange line in the chart, thanks to its strong profitability (and terrific return on capital to be detailed later), the business can also afford to pay off pretty much all the remaining income as dividend after covering its debt and maintenance CAPEx.\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha.\n\nSource: Author based on data from Seeking Alpha\nThe valuation\nAs can be seen from the following numbers in the table, at its current price levels, PEF is about fairly valued or slightly discounted depending on which valuation metric you use based on its historical valuations. In terms of absolute valuation, its current valuations (price/cash flow ratio around 14.5x) is also very reasonable for a wide moat business leader. Many consumer staple businesses (like food and drinks business) are valued above 20x cash flow because they cater to an eternal human need. Yet in my view, PFE caters to an equally eternal human need with a wider moat.\nAs such, the short-term risk is very manageable given the current entry valuation, especially considering the upcoming boost from their COVID vaccine. And also, the above average dividend yield would help to support the return should any short term turmoil occur.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha\nLong-term return and perpetual growth rate\nIf you, like this author, are a long-term investor who subscribes to the concepts of owner's earning, perpetual growth rate, and equity bond, then the long-term return is simpler. It is \"simply\" the summation of the owner's earning yield (\"OEY\") and the perpetual growth rate (\"PGR\"), i.e.,\nLonger-Term ROI = OEY + PGR\nBecause in the long term, all fluctuations in valuation are averaged out (all luck at the end even out). And it doesn't really matter how the business uses the earnings (pay out as dividend, retained in the bank account, or repurchase stocks). As long as used sensibly (as PFE has done in the past), it will be reflected as a return to the business owner.\nOEY is the owner's earnings divided by the entry price. All the complications are in the estimation of the owner's earnings - the real economic earnings of the business, not the nominal accounting earnings. Here as a crude and conservative estimate, I will just use the free cash flow (\"FCF\") as the owner's earnings. It is conservative in the sense that rigorously speaking, the owner's earnings should be free cash flow plus the portion of CAPEx that is used to fuel the growth (i.e., the growth CAPEx). At its current price levels, the OEY is ~6.6% for PFE (~15x price to FCF).\nThe next and more important item is the PGR. To understand and estimate it, we will need to first estimate the return on capital employed (\"ROCE\"). Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how much additional capital a business needs to invest in order to earn a given extra amount of income - a key to estimate the PGR. For businesses like PFE, I consider the following items capital actually employed:\n1. Working capital, including payables, receivables, inventory. These are the capitals required for the daily operation of their businesses.\n2. Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment. These are the capitals required to actually conduct business and manufacture their products.\n3. There are the following two possible routes here:\n3.1. The first route is to include research and development expenses as a capital investment. As mentioned above, the R&D is the lifeblood for a sustainable pharmaceutical business and is not really an optional expense.\n3.2. The second route is to amortize its intangible book value, mainly consisting of intellectual property and patents. This essentially treats the intellectual properties as capital with a finite lifetime, which I will assume to be five years, the average number of years away from its current blockbuster drugs' patent expiration.\nBased on the above considerations, the ROCE of PFE over the past decade are shown below. As seen, both approaches provided similar results, a good sign of the assumptions. PFE was able to maintain a remarkably high and stable ROCE over the long term: on average 44% for the past decade. To put things in perspective, as detailed in myprevious articlesfor Lockheed Martin (LMT) and General Dynamics (GD), ROCEs for these defense business leaders, who almost enjoy a monopoly moat, are \"only\" in the range of 20% to 30%.\n\nSource: Author and Seeking Alpha\nWith a 44% ROCE, it means that even if PFE only reinvests 1/10 of its earnings to expand the capital employed, it could maintain a 4.4% PGR (PGR = ROCE * fraction of earnings reinvested = 10% * 44% = 4.4%). And 10% reinvestment rate is indeed the situation here for PFE based on my analyses. As aforementioned, this is a reason that PFE can afford to pay off pretty much all the remaining income as dividend after covering its debt and maintenance CAPEx as dividend (or share repurchase). Of course, another reason is that businesses at this scale simply are not able to find that many opportunities to reinvest their earnings. But after all, 4.4% PGR already makes it a long term compounder with 10% income reinvested!\nNow we have both pieces of the puzzle in place to estimate the long-term return. At its current price levels, the OEY is estimated to be ~6.6% for PFE (~15x price to FCF), and the PGR is about 4.4%. So the total return in the long term at current valuation would be a double digit around 11% as shown in the chart below. Also as seen, even when ROCE fluctuates somewhat, the fluctuations wouldn't change the long-term return dramatically.\n\nSource: Author and Seeking Alpha.\nAnd for those of us who would like to wait for a better entry price, the next chart shows how much the long-term return potential would change as a function of the entry price. As can be seen, the long-term return potential doesn't change that much within a pretty wide range of entry price, as shown in the green box. This probably confirms something that you've already heard before - if you hold something for the long term, the entry price does not matter that much.\nHowever, many investors seem to interpret this one-sided and I'd like to do a bit of hairsplitting here. The above statement refers to the long-term RATE of return, not the absolute DOLLAR AMOUNT of return. When your entry price is decreased by 10%, yes, it is correct that this wouldn't impact your long-term rate of return by a lot as seen. But a 10% lower entry price would give you at least 10% more return in absolute dollar amount - because you get to buy 10% more shares with the same dollar amount you have, plus the whatever extra return brought about by the higher RATE of return.\nAnd as a final note before ending this section, this might be the most valuable insight that I've learned by studying Warren Buffett's investment philosophy. The insight really is that I do not need a business with double-digit growth to generate double-digit returns. A reliable business that can offer a stable growth at a boring rate of a few percent (like ~4% in the examples of PFE) can already provide double-digit returns with good certainty as long as A) they are purchased at a reasonable valuation, and B) they have ROCE sufficiently high so that the growth can be driven by reinvesting a small fraction of the income. In the long run, assuming a growth rate more than a few percent probably is a dangerous assumption to start with anyway.\n\nSource: Author and Seeking Alpha\nConclusion and final thoughts\nThe healthcare sector is a great place for value investors and enjoys long-term secular headwinds. Major players like Pfizer, due to their established lead and scale, are especially well-poised to capitalize on such secular trend. At its current price levels (~$39), an investment in PFE represents a wide moat business for sale at a fair price. The short-term risk is very manageable given the current entry valuation, the success with their COVID vaccine, and the support from the dividend yield. In the long term, the business features all the hallmarks of a long-term compounder - high profitability, high return on capital employed, and healthy perpetual growth prospects. An investment at the current price provides excellent potential for double-digit return in the long term.\nI am not buying only because my portfolio already holds enough healthcare stocks, which have similar return/risk profiles as I see. I just cannot have all of them and have to choose.\nThanks for reading! And look forward to hearing your thoughts and comments.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":121065635,"gmtCreate":1624445206327,"gmtModify":1634006074049,"author":{"id":"3581576661121192","authorId":"3581576661121192","name":"我是猪八戒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581576661121192","idStr":"3581576661121192"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","listText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","text":"[暗中观察]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121065635","repostId":"1127447179","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":123440115,"gmtCreate":1624436274237,"gmtModify":1634006163231,"author":{"id":"3581576661121192","authorId":"3581576661121192","name":"我是猪八戒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581576661121192","idStr":"3581576661121192"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary/*9O8T4N-index.html?feature=Banner&amp;Page=Me&amp;lang=en_US&amp;skin=1&amp;edition=fundamental&amp;invite=9O8T4N","listText":"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary/*9O8T4N-index.html?feature=Banner&amp;Page=Me&amp;lang=en_US&amp;skin=1&amp;edition=fundamental&amp;invite=9O8T4N","text":"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary/*9O8T4N-index.html?feature=Banner&Page=Me&lang=en_US&skin=1&edition=fundamental&invite=9O8T4N","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123440115","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128566901,"gmtCreate":1624524158503,"gmtModify":1634004890995,"author":{"id":"3581576661121192","authorId":"3581576661121192","name":"我是猪八戒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581576661121192","idStr":"3581576661121192"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128566901","repostId":"1166720474","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166720474","pubTimestamp":1624523507,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166720474?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 16:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bank Of America: No. 1 Pick For An Inflation Hedge And CCAR Winner","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166720474","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIn recent months, I have been advocating buying Bank of America when interest rates are low","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>In recent months, I have been advocating buying Bank of America when interest rates are low.</li>\n <li>The Fed is finally explicitly acknowledging inflation risks.</li>\n <li>I am taking advantage of recent dip in the share price of banks.</li>\n <li>The release of the CCAR stress tests should be a positive catalyst for BAC given substantial excess capital on its balance sheet.</li>\n <li>I have turned \"very bullish\" and have been accumulating the stock in recent days.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The Fed is acknowledging inflation risks. It is now time to 'think about thinking about' tapering bond purchases. The \"dot points\" by the FOMC participants suggest that the Fed overnight rate may rise as early as 2022 (see below chart):</p>\n<p>The markets reacted somewhat strangely to the Fed's repositioning on inflation risks. Short-term interest rates rose whereby long treasuries' yield declined strongly, and therefore resulting in a flattening of the yield curve.</p>\n<p>When the curve flattens, the algorithmic selling of banks gets triggered - I do not mind at all, as I get to buy the dips on the likes of Citigroup (C) and Barclays (BCS).</p>\n<p>The conventional wisdom is that the Fed is looking to rein in inflation by raising rates earlier than expected and therefore a 'mini rotation' away from cyclicals to growth has taken place. Chairman Powell furtherreiterated this weekthe Fed's accommodative stance and noted that the FOMC's dot-point projections should be taken with \"a large grain of salt\".</p>\n<p>My base view is that moderate inflation (unlike the one we have seen in the 1970s) is on the cards and that is what is being engineered by the Fed. The global economy desperately needs inflation due to the massive amount of debt issued by governments in recent years. The only way to get out of the predicament we are in is to slowly (but surely) demonetize the debt. At the same time, the world economy cannot really afford high nominal interest rates or otherwise let inflation get completely out of control.</p>\n<p>So in the next few years, I expect moderately higher short-term interest rates, some form of yield curve control, and a steepening yield curve (especially at the long end). And this is quite a positive environment for financials and especially so for Bank of America (BAC).</p>\n<p><b>The most interest rates sensitive bank</b></p>\n<p>BAC is one of the most interest-sensitive banks in North America. This can be clearly seen in its most recent disclosure in theQ1'2021 10-Q:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec53741ffe4bdcf3ba47e66278a8ff79\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>As you can see from above, BAC is projected to benefit by an incremental $8.3 billion of pre-tax income where a parallel shift in interest rates of 100 basis points takes place. Most of the benefit, however, is in the short end (~$6.3 billion).</p>\n<p>It is important to note that the above projection is static (assuming instantaneous movement in interest rates) and does not take into account management actions. You can see, for example, the reduced sensitivity at the long end compared with 31 December disclosures. It appears that during Q1'2021, BAC has taken advantage of higher long-term yields and extended the duration of its securities portfolio.</p>\n<p><b>What is driving BAC interest rate sensitivity?</b></p>\n<p>BAC is a deposit-gathering monster with greater than $1.8T balances as ofQ1'2021.</p>\n<p>These deposits are typically very sticky and cut across the retail mass market, high-net-worth individuals, small businesses, and large corporates.</p>\n<p>Currently, with 0% overnight interest rates and the 10-year Treasury yielding less than 1.5%, the returns on this amazing deposit franchise are at a cyclical bottom.</p>\n<p>You can think of banks, in that context, as commodity producers. The commodity they are selling is \"interest rates\" and BAC is the lowest cost producer by far with ample capacity. The operating leverage built-in in this business model, when and if interest rates rise, is nothing short of exceptional.</p>\n<p>If you believe the forecast of the FOMC members for longer-term overnight rates of 2.5% (and naturally longer-term rates will be higher), then the incremental pre-tax income for BAC should be well in excess of $20 billion. To recap, BAC's current market cap is ~$320 billion, and the return on tangible equity during Q1'2021 has been in excess of 17 percent (even in the current low-interest rate environment). The upside is clear and significant.</p>\n<p><b>A CCAR winner</b></p>\n<p>The Fed is expected to release the results of the 2021 Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) on Thursday 24th June after market close. CCAR is an annual exercise by the Federal Reserve designed to assess whether the largest banks operating in the United States have sufficient capital to continue operations throughout times of economic and financial stress.</p>\n<p>I expect BAC to pass with flying colours as they have done so in the last few CCAR cycles. After all, BAC has a relatively much lower risk profile compared to peer banks. This is evident from the lastCCAR stress testperformed in December 2020:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43588f352e781a567b15e73f99313e89\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>As can be seen from above, the drawdown in its capital ratios during a forecasted severely adverse scenario is materially lower than the median.</p>\n<p>As such, I expect BAC to be bound by a requirement to hold a minimum common equity tier 1 (\"CET1\") ratio of 9.5%. Given that its current ratio is 11.8%, it is very clear that BAC has ample capacity to return capital to shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks.</p>\n<p>Assuming a management buffer of 0.5% to 1.0%, I expect BAC to aim for a CET1 ratio of 10% to 10.5%. On the basis of excess capital and expected earnings for 2021, I expect BAC to return 125% to 150% of its 2021 earnings in the current CCAR cycle.</p>\n<p>This should translate to increased dividends as well as massive buybacks.</p>\n<p><b>Final thoughts</b></p>\n<p>I see BAC as a top stock to own in a moderate inflationary environment. The operating leverage embedded in its business model in a rising rates setting is nothing short of exceptional. It is also a great hedge to a portfolio comprising of defensive assets such as bonds and growth/large technology stocks.</p>\n<p>I have taken advantage of the recent dip in banks' share price and have been adding selectively in my favourite names. I have now turned \"very bullish\" on BAC. I also expect that the release of the CCAR results today will be quite a positive catalyst for banks and especially for BAC given the substantial excess capital on its balance sheet.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank Of America: No. 1 Pick For An Inflation Hedge And CCAR Winner</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank Of America: No. 1 Pick For An Inflation Hedge And CCAR Winner\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 16:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436319-bank-of-america-no-1-pick-inflation-hedge-ccar-winner><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nIn recent months, I have been advocating buying Bank of America when interest rates are low.\nThe Fed is finally explicitly acknowledging inflation risks.\nI am taking advantage of recent dip ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436319-bank-of-america-no-1-pick-inflation-hedge-ccar-winner\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BAC":"美国银行"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436319-bank-of-america-no-1-pick-inflation-hedge-ccar-winner","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1166720474","content_text":"Summary\n\nIn recent months, I have been advocating buying Bank of America when interest rates are low.\nThe Fed is finally explicitly acknowledging inflation risks.\nI am taking advantage of recent dip in the share price of banks.\nThe release of the CCAR stress tests should be a positive catalyst for BAC given substantial excess capital on its balance sheet.\nI have turned \"very bullish\" and have been accumulating the stock in recent days.\n\nThe Fed is acknowledging inflation risks. It is now time to 'think about thinking about' tapering bond purchases. The \"dot points\" by the FOMC participants suggest that the Fed overnight rate may rise as early as 2022 (see below chart):\nThe markets reacted somewhat strangely to the Fed's repositioning on inflation risks. Short-term interest rates rose whereby long treasuries' yield declined strongly, and therefore resulting in a flattening of the yield curve.\nWhen the curve flattens, the algorithmic selling of banks gets triggered - I do not mind at all, as I get to buy the dips on the likes of Citigroup (C) and Barclays (BCS).\nThe conventional wisdom is that the Fed is looking to rein in inflation by raising rates earlier than expected and therefore a 'mini rotation' away from cyclicals to growth has taken place. Chairman Powell furtherreiterated this weekthe Fed's accommodative stance and noted that the FOMC's dot-point projections should be taken with \"a large grain of salt\".\nMy base view is that moderate inflation (unlike the one we have seen in the 1970s) is on the cards and that is what is being engineered by the Fed. The global economy desperately needs inflation due to the massive amount of debt issued by governments in recent years. The only way to get out of the predicament we are in is to slowly (but surely) demonetize the debt. At the same time, the world economy cannot really afford high nominal interest rates or otherwise let inflation get completely out of control.\nSo in the next few years, I expect moderately higher short-term interest rates, some form of yield curve control, and a steepening yield curve (especially at the long end). And this is quite a positive environment for financials and especially so for Bank of America (BAC).\nThe most interest rates sensitive bank\nBAC is one of the most interest-sensitive banks in North America. This can be clearly seen in its most recent disclosure in theQ1'2021 10-Q:\n\nAs you can see from above, BAC is projected to benefit by an incremental $8.3 billion of pre-tax income where a parallel shift in interest rates of 100 basis points takes place. Most of the benefit, however, is in the short end (~$6.3 billion).\nIt is important to note that the above projection is static (assuming instantaneous movement in interest rates) and does not take into account management actions. You can see, for example, the reduced sensitivity at the long end compared with 31 December disclosures. It appears that during Q1'2021, BAC has taken advantage of higher long-term yields and extended the duration of its securities portfolio.\nWhat is driving BAC interest rate sensitivity?\nBAC is a deposit-gathering monster with greater than $1.8T balances as ofQ1'2021.\nThese deposits are typically very sticky and cut across the retail mass market, high-net-worth individuals, small businesses, and large corporates.\nCurrently, with 0% overnight interest rates and the 10-year Treasury yielding less than 1.5%, the returns on this amazing deposit franchise are at a cyclical bottom.\nYou can think of banks, in that context, as commodity producers. The commodity they are selling is \"interest rates\" and BAC is the lowest cost producer by far with ample capacity. The operating leverage built-in in this business model, when and if interest rates rise, is nothing short of exceptional.\nIf you believe the forecast of the FOMC members for longer-term overnight rates of 2.5% (and naturally longer-term rates will be higher), then the incremental pre-tax income for BAC should be well in excess of $20 billion. To recap, BAC's current market cap is ~$320 billion, and the return on tangible equity during Q1'2021 has been in excess of 17 percent (even in the current low-interest rate environment). The upside is clear and significant.\nA CCAR winner\nThe Fed is expected to release the results of the 2021 Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) on Thursday 24th June after market close. CCAR is an annual exercise by the Federal Reserve designed to assess whether the largest banks operating in the United States have sufficient capital to continue operations throughout times of economic and financial stress.\nI expect BAC to pass with flying colours as they have done so in the last few CCAR cycles. After all, BAC has a relatively much lower risk profile compared to peer banks. This is evident from the lastCCAR stress testperformed in December 2020:\n\nAs can be seen from above, the drawdown in its capital ratios during a forecasted severely adverse scenario is materially lower than the median.\nAs such, I expect BAC to be bound by a requirement to hold a minimum common equity tier 1 (\"CET1\") ratio of 9.5%. Given that its current ratio is 11.8%, it is very clear that BAC has ample capacity to return capital to shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks.\nAssuming a management buffer of 0.5% to 1.0%, I expect BAC to aim for a CET1 ratio of 10% to 10.5%. On the basis of excess capital and expected earnings for 2021, I expect BAC to return 125% to 150% of its 2021 earnings in the current CCAR cycle.\nThis should translate to increased dividends as well as massive buybacks.\nFinal thoughts\nI see BAC as a top stock to own in a moderate inflationary environment. The operating leverage embedded in its business model in a rising rates setting is nothing short of exceptional. It is also a great hedge to a portfolio comprising of defensive assets such as bonds and growth/large technology stocks.\nI have taken advantage of the recent dip in banks' share price and have been adding selectively in my favourite names. I have now turned \"very bullish\" on BAC. I also expect that the release of the CCAR results today will be quite a positive catalyst for banks and especially for BAC given the substantial excess capital on its balance sheet.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":120744353,"gmtCreate":1624339991972,"gmtModify":1634007524910,"author":{"id":"3581576661121192","authorId":"3581576661121192","name":"我是猪八戒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581576661121192","idStr":"3581576661121192"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Join Tiger Brokers with me and receive stock vouchers of up to 1 million!https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary/*9O8T4N-index.html?feature=Banner&amp;Page=Me&amp;lang=en_US&amp;skin=1&amp;edition=fundamental&amp;invite=9O8T4N&amp;share=WhatsAPP","listText":"Join Tiger Brokers with me and receive stock vouchers of up to 1 million!https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary/*9O8T4N-index.html?feature=Banner&amp;Page=Me&amp;lang=en_US&amp;skin=1&amp;edition=fundamental&amp;invite=9O8T4N&amp;share=WhatsAPP","text":"Join Tiger Brokers with me and receive stock vouchers of up to 1 million!https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary/*9O8T4N-index.html?feature=Banner&Page=Me&lang=en_US&skin=1&edition=fundamental&invite=9O8T4N&share=WhatsAPP","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120744353","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":679,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128570215,"gmtCreate":1624525533837,"gmtModify":1634004876404,"author":{"id":"3581576661121192","authorId":"3581576661121192","name":"我是猪八戒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581576661121192","idStr":"3581576661121192"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128570215","repostId":"1169013136","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128546740,"gmtCreate":1624525329280,"gmtModify":1634004878992,"author":{"id":"3581576661121192","authorId":"3581576661121192","name":"我是猪八戒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581576661121192","idStr":"3581576661121192"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[无语]&nbsp;","listText":"[无语]&nbsp;","text":"[无语]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128546740","repostId":"2145531099","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145531099","pubTimestamp":1624445171,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2145531099?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 18:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Forget Crypto: These Supercharged Stocks Can Make You Rich","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145531099","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The cryptocurrency bubble will inevitably burst. That's why these hypergrowth stocks make for such smart buys.","content":"<p>The stock market has long been the preferred creator of wealth. Although other investment vehicles, such as bonds or gold, have had superior performances for short stretches of time, no asset class has delivered better average annual returns than stocks over the long run.</p>\n<p>However, the emergence of cryptocurrencies is changing this mode of thinking. After watching <b>Bitcoin</b> (CRYPTO:BTC) rise from $1 to $40,000 in a little over a decade, and seeing <b>Dogecoin</b> (CRYPTO:DOGE) gallop higher by 27,000% in a six-month span, investors are feeling compelled to chase the momentum in the crypto space.</p>\n<p>Unfortunately, this could prove to be a huge mistake.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e84aa34310d37f1ab30212f9dcf1bf0d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>The cryptocurrency bubble is eventually going to burst</h2>\n<p>While there's no denying that cryptocurrency has delivered some game-changing returns, most of this upside has been built on unsubstantiated hype. In other words, some folks view tokens like Bitcoin and Dogecoin as the future global currencies, but virtually nothing has suggested that this will come to fruition.</p>\n<p>The reality is that digital currencies are virtually useless outside of a cryptocurrency exchange. Bitcoin has been stuck handling 250,000 to 300,000 transactions daily for years, while Dogecoin has been averaging closer to 30,000 daily transactions of late. For comparison's sake, payment-processing giants <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a></b>&nbsp;and <b>Mastercard</b>&nbsp;handled 700 million transactions daily on a combined basis in 2018.</p>\n<p>To build on this point, Fundera estimated earlier this year that only around 15,200 businesses worldwide accepted Bitcoin. Meanwhile, online business directory Cryptwerk finds that Dogecoin is accepted by 1,400 companies. For context, there are more than 32 million businesses in the U.S., and an estimated 582 million entrepreneurs worldwide. There simply isn't the broad-based adoption that's being hyped by cryptocurrency supporters.</p>\n<p>At the same time, blockchain technology is caught in a Catch-22. Blockchain being the transparent and immutable underlying ledger of digital currencies that logs transactions. No business is willing to abandon time-tested infrastructure in favor of blockchain until it's demonstrated that blockchain can be scaled in the real world. At the same time, there won't be any evidence that blockchain is revolutionary if no businesses are willing to be an early stage guinea pig, so to speak.</p>\n<p>History unequivocally shows that all bubbles eventually burst, without exception. That's the fate awaiting cryptocurrencies.</p>\n<h2>Dump digital currencies in favor of this fast-growing trio</h2>\n<p>Rather than put your money to work in an asset class that's being driven by hype and emotion, my suggestion would be to buy the following trio of supercharged stocks. If you buy stakes in innovative businesses whose products and services have growing real-world application, and you hold these stakes for long periods of time, you'll very likely get rich.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ca48e46c5ed915bdfaeb115d44e553\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>Etsy</h2>\n<p>To begin with, e-commerce platform <b>Etsy</b> (NASDAQ:ETSY) will have long-term investors forgetting all about the volatility and hype associated with digital currencies.</p>\n<p>To state the obvious, Etsy was a clear winner of the coronavirus pandemic. With people stuck in their homes, many turned online to buy basic-need and discretionary goods. For Etsy, this included a healthy uptick in sales from facial coverings. But the Etsy platform has <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> key advantage that not even <b>Amazon</b>&nbsp;looks to be a threat to: personalization.</p>\n<p>Etsy's platform is built on the idea of putting customers in contact with small merchants who can, if needed, customize their order. Etsy's collection of merchants focuses on personal engagement and uniqueness that shoppers simply won't find on bigger e-commerce platforms. The proof is in the pudding that Etsy's platform is resonating with shoppers. Habitual buyer spending -- those who purchased at least six separate times totaling more than $200, in aggregate, over the trailing year -- has been rocketing higher. Habitual buyers spent 205% more in the first quarter of 2021 than they did in the prior-year quarter.</p>\n<p>Since Etsy generates the bulk of its revenue from merchant ads, the company has also been aggressively reinvesting in its platform to streamline searches and keep users engaged. Last year, it introduced listing videos to promote products, and it's been giving its smaller merchants greater access to analytic tools.</p>\n<p>It's not out of the question that Etsy triples its annual revenue by mid-decade.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95488cfb7d1265a9ff2f104768cae97b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"464\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>Sea Limited</h2>\n<p>Another supercharged growth stock that can make investors rich is Singapore-based <b>Sea Limited</b> (NYSE:SE). Even though Sea is far from inexpensive, the premium you'd be paying takes into account that it has three exceptionally fast-growing operating segments.</p>\n<p>For the time being, Sea is generating virtually all of its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) from its gaming division. Similar to online shopping, gaming benefited notably from people being stuck in their homes. Since Sea's mobile games target global audiences, and the pandemic is nowhere near over in many parts of the world, demand for gaming entertainment will likely remain robust. Over the past year (through the end of March), quarterly active paying users grew by 124%, with 12.3% of the company's total gamers now paying to play.</p>\n<p>Over the long run, Sea's crown jewel should be its e-commerce platform Shopee, which is consistently the most-popular shopping download in Southeastern Asia, and is gaining significant traction in Brazil. With a focus on emerging markets and regions where the middle class is growing at an incredible rate, Shopee saw gross orders jump 153% in the first quarter, with the gross merchandise value of these orders doubling to $12.6 billion. This is just the tip of the iceberg.</p>\n<p>Lastly, Sea's digital financial services division is bringing mobile wallet services to underbanked regions. Mobile wallet payment volume is on pace to potentially surpass $14 billion in 2021, with more than 26 million paying customers in Q1.</p>\n<p>If all goes well, Sea Limited's revenue could possibly quintuple over the next four years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68ecb34d6e4fd6f7dc599908229a09a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>CrowdStrike Holdings</h2>\n<p>Cybersecurity stock <b>CrowdStrike Holdings</b> (NASDAQ:CRWD) is a third supercharged growth company that can easily outpace the returns from the cryptocurrency industry over the long run.</p>\n<p>Cybersecurity might not be the fastest-growing industry over the next decade, but it could very well be the safest double-digit growth opportunity. With more businesses than ever shifting their data online and into the cloud due to the pandemic, the importance of protecting enterprise and consumer data is greater than ever before. In short, demand for third-party cybersecurity solutions providers is soaring.</p>\n<p>While there is no shortage of cybersecurity specialists to choose from, what sets CrowdStrike apart is its cloud-native Falcon platform. Being built in the cloud, and relying on artificial intelligence, Falcon oversees approximately 6 trillion events each week. This is to say that CrowdStrike's core platform is getting smarter at recognizing and responding to potential threats over time. And in many instances, CrowdStrike's solutions are more efficient and cost-effective than on-premises security options.</p>\n<p>It's plainly evident from the company's operating results that Falcon is resonating with enterprise customers. It's been able to retain 98% of its customers for two consecutive years, and existing clients have spent between 23% and 47% more on a year-over-year basis for 12 straight quarters. Arguably even more impressive is that 64% of customers have purchased four or more cloud-module subscriptions, which is up from 9% just four years ago. It's this rapid scaling from the company's enterprise clients that has CrowdStrike generating a subscription gross margin in the upper 70% range.</p>\n<p>Investors should expect CrowdStrike to grow by 30% or more on an annual basis through the midpoint of the decade.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Forget Crypto: These Supercharged Stocks Can Make You Rich</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForget Crypto: These Supercharged Stocks Can Make You Rich\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 18:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/forget-crypto-supercharged-stocks-make-you-rich/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The stock market has long been the preferred creator of wealth. Although other investment vehicles, such as bonds or gold, have had superior performances for short stretches of time, no asset class ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/forget-crypto-supercharged-stocks-make-you-rich/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ETSY":"Etsy, Inc.","CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.","SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/forget-crypto-supercharged-stocks-make-you-rich/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145531099","content_text":"The stock market has long been the preferred creator of wealth. Although other investment vehicles, such as bonds or gold, have had superior performances for short stretches of time, no asset class has delivered better average annual returns than stocks over the long run.\nHowever, the emergence of cryptocurrencies is changing this mode of thinking. After watching Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) rise from $1 to $40,000 in a little over a decade, and seeing Dogecoin (CRYPTO:DOGE) gallop higher by 27,000% in a six-month span, investors are feeling compelled to chase the momentum in the crypto space.\nUnfortunately, this could prove to be a huge mistake.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nThe cryptocurrency bubble is eventually going to burst\nWhile there's no denying that cryptocurrency has delivered some game-changing returns, most of this upside has been built on unsubstantiated hype. In other words, some folks view tokens like Bitcoin and Dogecoin as the future global currencies, but virtually nothing has suggested that this will come to fruition.\nThe reality is that digital currencies are virtually useless outside of a cryptocurrency exchange. Bitcoin has been stuck handling 250,000 to 300,000 transactions daily for years, while Dogecoin has been averaging closer to 30,000 daily transactions of late. For comparison's sake, payment-processing giants Visa and Mastercard handled 700 million transactions daily on a combined basis in 2018.\nTo build on this point, Fundera estimated earlier this year that only around 15,200 businesses worldwide accepted Bitcoin. Meanwhile, online business directory Cryptwerk finds that Dogecoin is accepted by 1,400 companies. For context, there are more than 32 million businesses in the U.S., and an estimated 582 million entrepreneurs worldwide. There simply isn't the broad-based adoption that's being hyped by cryptocurrency supporters.\nAt the same time, blockchain technology is caught in a Catch-22. Blockchain being the transparent and immutable underlying ledger of digital currencies that logs transactions. No business is willing to abandon time-tested infrastructure in favor of blockchain until it's demonstrated that blockchain can be scaled in the real world. At the same time, there won't be any evidence that blockchain is revolutionary if no businesses are willing to be an early stage guinea pig, so to speak.\nHistory unequivocally shows that all bubbles eventually burst, without exception. That's the fate awaiting cryptocurrencies.\nDump digital currencies in favor of this fast-growing trio\nRather than put your money to work in an asset class that's being driven by hype and emotion, my suggestion would be to buy the following trio of supercharged stocks. If you buy stakes in innovative businesses whose products and services have growing real-world application, and you hold these stakes for long periods of time, you'll very likely get rich.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nEtsy\nTo begin with, e-commerce platform Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY) will have long-term investors forgetting all about the volatility and hype associated with digital currencies.\nTo state the obvious, Etsy was a clear winner of the coronavirus pandemic. With people stuck in their homes, many turned online to buy basic-need and discretionary goods. For Etsy, this included a healthy uptick in sales from facial coverings. But the Etsy platform has one key advantage that not even Amazon looks to be a threat to: personalization.\nEtsy's platform is built on the idea of putting customers in contact with small merchants who can, if needed, customize their order. Etsy's collection of merchants focuses on personal engagement and uniqueness that shoppers simply won't find on bigger e-commerce platforms. The proof is in the pudding that Etsy's platform is resonating with shoppers. Habitual buyer spending -- those who purchased at least six separate times totaling more than $200, in aggregate, over the trailing year -- has been rocketing higher. Habitual buyers spent 205% more in the first quarter of 2021 than they did in the prior-year quarter.\nSince Etsy generates the bulk of its revenue from merchant ads, the company has also been aggressively reinvesting in its platform to streamline searches and keep users engaged. Last year, it introduced listing videos to promote products, and it's been giving its smaller merchants greater access to analytic tools.\nIt's not out of the question that Etsy triples its annual revenue by mid-decade.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nSea Limited\nAnother supercharged growth stock that can make investors rich is Singapore-based Sea Limited (NYSE:SE). Even though Sea is far from inexpensive, the premium you'd be paying takes into account that it has three exceptionally fast-growing operating segments.\nFor the time being, Sea is generating virtually all of its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) from its gaming division. Similar to online shopping, gaming benefited notably from people being stuck in their homes. Since Sea's mobile games target global audiences, and the pandemic is nowhere near over in many parts of the world, demand for gaming entertainment will likely remain robust. Over the past year (through the end of March), quarterly active paying users grew by 124%, with 12.3% of the company's total gamers now paying to play.\nOver the long run, Sea's crown jewel should be its e-commerce platform Shopee, which is consistently the most-popular shopping download in Southeastern Asia, and is gaining significant traction in Brazil. With a focus on emerging markets and regions where the middle class is growing at an incredible rate, Shopee saw gross orders jump 153% in the first quarter, with the gross merchandise value of these orders doubling to $12.6 billion. This is just the tip of the iceberg.\nLastly, Sea's digital financial services division is bringing mobile wallet services to underbanked regions. Mobile wallet payment volume is on pace to potentially surpass $14 billion in 2021, with more than 26 million paying customers in Q1.\nIf all goes well, Sea Limited's revenue could possibly quintuple over the next four years.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nCrowdStrike Holdings\nCybersecurity stock CrowdStrike Holdings (NASDAQ:CRWD) is a third supercharged growth company that can easily outpace the returns from the cryptocurrency industry over the long run.\nCybersecurity might not be the fastest-growing industry over the next decade, but it could very well be the safest double-digit growth opportunity. With more businesses than ever shifting their data online and into the cloud due to the pandemic, the importance of protecting enterprise and consumer data is greater than ever before. In short, demand for third-party cybersecurity solutions providers is soaring.\nWhile there is no shortage of cybersecurity specialists to choose from, what sets CrowdStrike apart is its cloud-native Falcon platform. Being built in the cloud, and relying on artificial intelligence, Falcon oversees approximately 6 trillion events each week. This is to say that CrowdStrike's core platform is getting smarter at recognizing and responding to potential threats over time. And in many instances, CrowdStrike's solutions are more efficient and cost-effective than on-premises security options.\nIt's plainly evident from the company's operating results that Falcon is resonating with enterprise customers. It's been able to retain 98% of its customers for two consecutive years, and existing clients have spent between 23% and 47% more on a year-over-year basis for 12 straight quarters. Arguably even more impressive is that 64% of customers have purchased four or more cloud-module subscriptions, which is up from 9% just four years ago. It's this rapid scaling from the company's enterprise clients that has CrowdStrike generating a subscription gross margin in the upper 70% range.\nInvestors should expect CrowdStrike to grow by 30% or more on an annual basis through the midpoint of the decade.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":128548211,"gmtCreate":1624525287633,"gmtModify":1634004879935,"author":{"id":"3581576661121192","authorId":"3581576661121192","name":"我是猪八戒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581576661121192","idStr":"3581576661121192"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128548211","repostId":"1176854050","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176854050","pubTimestamp":1624506221,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176854050?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: A Lesson In Humility","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176854050","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Tesla shares have pulled well back in a months-long period of weakness.With earnings coming up, there looks to be a showdown of bulls and bears on the near-term horizon.I see Tesla's fundamentals - and valuation - as having improved massively in recent months, and I'm therefore still quite bullish.Finally, the elephant in the room is the descending triangle I noted above, and I’ve added some extra bars at the end of the chart to show what the resolution of the triangle might look like. We can se","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla shares have pulled well back in a months-long period of weakness.</li>\n <li>With earnings coming up, there looks to be a showdown of bulls and bears on the near-term horizon.</li>\n <li>I see Tesla's fundamentals - and valuation - as having improved massively in recent months, and I'm therefore still quite bullish.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16088600ba424779ab370711976bff68\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>AdrianHancu/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Sometimes in investing, our thesis, no matter how much we believe in it, doesn’t work. I’ve experienced that countless times personally, and I think pretty much everyone who tries their hand at growing capital through the financial markets does as well. The important thing is not to fall in love with a stock and let it destroy your portfolio, and in the case of EV mothership<b>Tesla</b>(TSLA), I certainly had my fair share of practice at letting go of a failed thesis recently.</p>\n<p>Back inearly April, I said it was time to buy Tesla based upon its fairly reliable history of running higher into earnings announcements. The stock was at $691 at the time and did move higher in the next couple of weeks, but as we can see from the below, the move didn’t stick. That caused me to rethink my position in the short-term with Tesla, and now that we are four weeks out from the next earnings report, we have a different situation on our hands.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54fd49361e0720105b3d38a4c4c88fa1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: StockCharts</span></p>\n<p>I’ve annotated several things on the daily chart because the situation is quite interesting for Tesla during this critical period leading up to the next earnings release. The first thing I’ll note is that the accumulation/distribution line remains very strong, having never wavered from its prior levels achieved during the massive rally that took place mostly in 2020. That’s a good sign because the bulls and bears remain roughly equally matched despite a share price that has given the bulls every reason to move on.</p>\n<p>Momentum is more of a mixed picture because the PPO and 14-day RSI are both showing some signs of positive divergence, but also signs that bullish momentum is nowhere near high enough to push the stock into another rally phase. On the divergence side, momentum is gradually moving higher while the share price bounces around, indicating that the worst of the selling is likely done, but that we’re in a digestion period. The 14-day RSI hasn’t yet crested the centerline in earnest, which again means that bullish momentum is fairly weak.</p>\n<p>Overall, I’d say momentum is showing what you might expect at this stage, which is that the selling pressure has abated, but we’re not in rally mode. Yet.</p>\n<p>Finally, the elephant in the room is the descending triangle I noted above, and I’ve added some extra bars at the end of the chart to show what the resolution of the triangle might look like. We can see at the current slope of the line that the triangle will likely resolve near the end of July, which just so happens to coincide with the earnings release. This is a bearish pattern so I don’t want to make everything seem like sunshine and lollipops, but the rest of the chart is mixed, so we’ll have to wait and see.</p>\n<p>The earnings report, in my view, is going to be the catalyst one way or the other for the breakout from the triangle. Which direction it will go is anyone’s guess, but I’d be ready for a wild reaction to the earnings release in July.</p>\n<p>If we look at a weekly chart, I see a much rosier picture.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4525c330221c7768acc84c336cd8ef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: StockCharts</span></p>\n<p>We can see that the stock ran up massively in 2020 and took with it the accumulation/distribution line, as well as the momentum indicators, as you’d expect. But since the selling began, we see signs that the stock has simply worked off its overbought conditions, which looks bullish to me.</p>\n<p>The 50-week moving average has served as support during this consolidation phase, and it currently stands at $575, so I’d watch that level if we see more selling. On the plus side, the accumulation/distribution line looks beautiful and again, is supportive of this selling being a digestion period rather than the end of the bull market for Tesla.</p>\n<p>Momentum would seem to support that as well, as the PPO and 14-week RSI are back at centerline support. What happens after this is critical, obviously, but the weekly chart doesn’t show Tesla as breaking down on a longer-term basis. The negative divergences we saw since 2020 began have given way to momentum resetting, which often happens before a new bull phase begins. With the earnings report looming in July, and the daily and weekly charts showing different pictures (at least to my eye), it’s going to be an interesting next four weeks for sure.</p>\n<p><b>Fundamentals still bullish</b></p>\n<p>I’d sum up the chart as having a short-term set of challenges for the bulls, but longer-term, I still see Tesla going higher. On a fundamental basis, I think the conclusion is decidedly more bullish. Let’s start with revenue revisions, which have been nothing short of terrific.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7297a6360a43284ab70d4caf12d206f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>All years are showing uptrends in revenue revisions, and in particular, the out years. Let us not forget that these positive revisions are occurring during a time when countless startups and internal combustion engine OGs like GM (GM), Ford (F) and Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) are investing tens of billions of dollars to take market share in EVs. None of this is new and it isn’t like the analyst community is surprised by these investments; Tesla is simply on a tremendous upward trajectory when it comes to growing revenue.</p>\n<p>Canaccordpointed out last week that the Model S Plaid Plus delay was likely due to the 4680 cell design not being ready for prime time. That very well could be the case, and it wouldn’t be the first time Tesla disappointed with a time frame it gave investors. Remember therobo-taxi claim?</p>\n<p>At any rate, the company’s lineup continues to resonate with customers and now that capacity constraints should lessen greatly over the coming years – new factories in a few parts of the world will help – the path of least resistance for Tesla is no doubt higher. This will only get better as Tesla can decrease the per-unit cost of things like the batteries so it can better compete with mainstream automakers on price, and become a mainstream automaker rather than a niche manufacturer for the well-heeled.</p>\n<p>Another thing scale is affording Tesla is monumental progress with profit margins. Below we have trailing-twelve-months gross margins, SG&amp;A costs, and EBIT margin as a percentage of revenue.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9effb44d7bda8f3bdb535e80dd1ac0f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>All three of these lines are moving in the right direction. Gross margins have been rising thanks to higher sales and production volumes, a trend that should continue so long as sales remain robust. In addition, Tesla is spending much less on an SG&amp;A basis than it used to, which again, is the product of higher sales volume. SG&amp;A used to be in the mid-20% range of revenue, which is unsustainable. Today, it’s only 10%, which means operating margins have gone quite positive, and with room to run in the future.</p>\n<p>Margins have always been an easy thing for the bears to point to, but that is simply no longer the case, and if you have a long holding period, the margin situation is going to work out in the bulls’ favor.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6401d5cd793a93d0ed6d36f911abdb15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>This is all pointing to ever-higher EPS estimates, as we can see above. Analysts continue to try and keep up with Tesla’s upward trajectory, and so long as sales volumes and margins continue their march higher, so will these lines. Again, this is a feather in the cap of the bulls.</p>\n<p><b>Other considerations</b></p>\n<p>Tesla is not for the faint of heart, because it is volatile and we are at a point in the history of the automobile that an EV gold rush of sorts is occurring. Everyone is investing to win once the internal combustion engine is gone, but Tesla has a massive head start on the competition.</p>\n<p>Even so, there are risks to consider. First, Tesla could lose its technology lead over time as legacy manufacturers throw tens of billions of dollars at R&amp;D on battery technology. Tesla is far and away the superior battery maker today, but that does not guarantee it stays that way. To be clear, I don’t see that as a viable outcome in the near-term, but ten years from now? Twenty? It's a risk.</p>\n<p>Another risk is that Tesla uses its stock as a piggy bank, issuing shares to fund R&amp;D, factory construction, and the like.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8f44f661051d87ad3f2906cabe5479d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"165\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>The share count has nearly doubled in the past decade, which is pretty ugly from a shareholders’ perspective, as we usually only see this kind of dilution with REITs or BDCs that issue equity capital as a normal course of business. Manufacturing stocks don’t generally do anything like this, but Tesla has made it work. Still, you have to imagine it is possible that over a decade holding period, you’ll be diluted out of half of your ownership in the company. This also creates an uphill battle for EPS as earnings are spread over more and more shares, so I want to be clear this is an unequivocal negative for shareholders. However, let me now point you to what could possibly be the saving grace for this perma-dilution; free cash flow.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0569f35589cc0f82bb006148271df19b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"170\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>Tesla’s trailing-twelve-months FCF has improved immensely in recent years, as the company is producing massive amounts of operating cash flow that it never did before, which is owed once again to sales volume and margin growth. Tesla has surpassed the point where it needs to constantly issue capital just to survive because it is creating its own through its operations. This is massively important for the bull case because it means the dilution we’ve seen in recent years<i>shouldn’t</i>be necessary any longer.</p>\n<p>Indeed, if we look at net debt, we can see just how much Tesla’s balance sheet has improved, which again supports not having to dilute shareholders to stay afloat.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49fa413fc33c85d7269e987b2c11c888\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>Net debt has turned into a net cash position of late, with Tesla having nearly $5 billion in cash and equivalents more than debt. Tesla’s financing situation has improved enormously, and that’s good for those of us that are bullish.</p>\n<p><b>Is it cheap?</b></p>\n<p>Not really. But then again revolutionary companies rarely are. The good news is that the price-to-sales ratio has halved since the peak earlier this year, but at 11x forward revenue, I cannot in good conscience call it cheap.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca2d9f38636872d9d508e096e9ac8af8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"189\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>However, it is a lot cheaper than it was, and withrevenueslated to rise by more than half this year, and then<i>double</i>again by 2024, you don’t need the multiple to rise for a bullish outlook.</p>\n<p>I’ll reiterate that there are risks to Tesla. The daily chart is leaning slightly bearish with that descending triangle, but we’re heading into the pre-earnings run-up that Tesla<i>usually</i>shines during. The weekly chart is showing signs of digestion rather than rolling over. There are competitive risks that aren’t new and will never go way, but the company is still building great EVs that are resonating with customers. Margins and FCF are booming comparatively speaking, and the stock is at roughly half the valuation it was a few months ago.</p>\n<p>All in all, Tesla almost certainly has a rocky road in front of it, but I’m still bullish given the weight of the evidence.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: A Lesson In Humility</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: A Lesson In Humility\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436295-tesla-a-lesson-in-humility><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla shares have pulled well back in a months-long period of weakness.\nWith earnings coming up, there looks to be a showdown of bulls and bears on the near-term horizon.\nI see Tesla's ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436295-tesla-a-lesson-in-humility\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436295-tesla-a-lesson-in-humility","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1176854050","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla shares have pulled well back in a months-long period of weakness.\nWith earnings coming up, there looks to be a showdown of bulls and bears on the near-term horizon.\nI see Tesla's fundamentals - and valuation - as having improved massively in recent months, and I'm therefore still quite bullish.\n\nAdrianHancu/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nSometimes in investing, our thesis, no matter how much we believe in it, doesn’t work. I’ve experienced that countless times personally, and I think pretty much everyone who tries their hand at growing capital through the financial markets does as well. The important thing is not to fall in love with a stock and let it destroy your portfolio, and in the case of EV mothershipTesla(TSLA), I certainly had my fair share of practice at letting go of a failed thesis recently.\nBack inearly April, I said it was time to buy Tesla based upon its fairly reliable history of running higher into earnings announcements. The stock was at $691 at the time and did move higher in the next couple of weeks, but as we can see from the below, the move didn’t stick. That caused me to rethink my position in the short-term with Tesla, and now that we are four weeks out from the next earnings report, we have a different situation on our hands.\nSource: StockCharts\nI’ve annotated several things on the daily chart because the situation is quite interesting for Tesla during this critical period leading up to the next earnings release. The first thing I’ll note is that the accumulation/distribution line remains very strong, having never wavered from its prior levels achieved during the massive rally that took place mostly in 2020. That’s a good sign because the bulls and bears remain roughly equally matched despite a share price that has given the bulls every reason to move on.\nMomentum is more of a mixed picture because the PPO and 14-day RSI are both showing some signs of positive divergence, but also signs that bullish momentum is nowhere near high enough to push the stock into another rally phase. On the divergence side, momentum is gradually moving higher while the share price bounces around, indicating that the worst of the selling is likely done, but that we’re in a digestion period. The 14-day RSI hasn’t yet crested the centerline in earnest, which again means that bullish momentum is fairly weak.\nOverall, I’d say momentum is showing what you might expect at this stage, which is that the selling pressure has abated, but we’re not in rally mode. Yet.\nFinally, the elephant in the room is the descending triangle I noted above, and I’ve added some extra bars at the end of the chart to show what the resolution of the triangle might look like. We can see at the current slope of the line that the triangle will likely resolve near the end of July, which just so happens to coincide with the earnings release. This is a bearish pattern so I don’t want to make everything seem like sunshine and lollipops, but the rest of the chart is mixed, so we’ll have to wait and see.\nThe earnings report, in my view, is going to be the catalyst one way or the other for the breakout from the triangle. Which direction it will go is anyone’s guess, but I’d be ready for a wild reaction to the earnings release in July.\nIf we look at a weekly chart, I see a much rosier picture.\nSource: StockCharts\nWe can see that the stock ran up massively in 2020 and took with it the accumulation/distribution line, as well as the momentum indicators, as you’d expect. But since the selling began, we see signs that the stock has simply worked off its overbought conditions, which looks bullish to me.\nThe 50-week moving average has served as support during this consolidation phase, and it currently stands at $575, so I’d watch that level if we see more selling. On the plus side, the accumulation/distribution line looks beautiful and again, is supportive of this selling being a digestion period rather than the end of the bull market for Tesla.\nMomentum would seem to support that as well, as the PPO and 14-week RSI are back at centerline support. What happens after this is critical, obviously, but the weekly chart doesn’t show Tesla as breaking down on a longer-term basis. The negative divergences we saw since 2020 began have given way to momentum resetting, which often happens before a new bull phase begins. With the earnings report looming in July, and the daily and weekly charts showing different pictures (at least to my eye), it’s going to be an interesting next four weeks for sure.\nFundamentals still bullish\nI’d sum up the chart as having a short-term set of challenges for the bulls, but longer-term, I still see Tesla going higher. On a fundamental basis, I think the conclusion is decidedly more bullish. Let’s start with revenue revisions, which have been nothing short of terrific.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nAll years are showing uptrends in revenue revisions, and in particular, the out years. Let us not forget that these positive revisions are occurring during a time when countless startups and internal combustion engine OGs like GM (GM), Ford (F) and Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) are investing tens of billions of dollars to take market share in EVs. None of this is new and it isn’t like the analyst community is surprised by these investments; Tesla is simply on a tremendous upward trajectory when it comes to growing revenue.\nCanaccordpointed out last week that the Model S Plaid Plus delay was likely due to the 4680 cell design not being ready for prime time. That very well could be the case, and it wouldn’t be the first time Tesla disappointed with a time frame it gave investors. Remember therobo-taxi claim?\nAt any rate, the company’s lineup continues to resonate with customers and now that capacity constraints should lessen greatly over the coming years – new factories in a few parts of the world will help – the path of least resistance for Tesla is no doubt higher. This will only get better as Tesla can decrease the per-unit cost of things like the batteries so it can better compete with mainstream automakers on price, and become a mainstream automaker rather than a niche manufacturer for the well-heeled.\nAnother thing scale is affording Tesla is monumental progress with profit margins. Below we have trailing-twelve-months gross margins, SG&A costs, and EBIT margin as a percentage of revenue.\nSource: TIKR.com\nAll three of these lines are moving in the right direction. Gross margins have been rising thanks to higher sales and production volumes, a trend that should continue so long as sales remain robust. In addition, Tesla is spending much less on an SG&A basis than it used to, which again, is the product of higher sales volume. SG&A used to be in the mid-20% range of revenue, which is unsustainable. Today, it’s only 10%, which means operating margins have gone quite positive, and with room to run in the future.\nMargins have always been an easy thing for the bears to point to, but that is simply no longer the case, and if you have a long holding period, the margin situation is going to work out in the bulls’ favor.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nThis is all pointing to ever-higher EPS estimates, as we can see above. Analysts continue to try and keep up with Tesla’s upward trajectory, and so long as sales volumes and margins continue their march higher, so will these lines. Again, this is a feather in the cap of the bulls.\nOther considerations\nTesla is not for the faint of heart, because it is volatile and we are at a point in the history of the automobile that an EV gold rush of sorts is occurring. Everyone is investing to win once the internal combustion engine is gone, but Tesla has a massive head start on the competition.\nEven so, there are risks to consider. First, Tesla could lose its technology lead over time as legacy manufacturers throw tens of billions of dollars at R&D on battery technology. Tesla is far and away the superior battery maker today, but that does not guarantee it stays that way. To be clear, I don’t see that as a viable outcome in the near-term, but ten years from now? Twenty? It's a risk.\nAnother risk is that Tesla uses its stock as a piggy bank, issuing shares to fund R&D, factory construction, and the like.\nSource: TIKR.com\nThe share count has nearly doubled in the past decade, which is pretty ugly from a shareholders’ perspective, as we usually only see this kind of dilution with REITs or BDCs that issue equity capital as a normal course of business. Manufacturing stocks don’t generally do anything like this, but Tesla has made it work. Still, you have to imagine it is possible that over a decade holding period, you’ll be diluted out of half of your ownership in the company. This also creates an uphill battle for EPS as earnings are spread over more and more shares, so I want to be clear this is an unequivocal negative for shareholders. However, let me now point you to what could possibly be the saving grace for this perma-dilution; free cash flow.\nSource: TIKR.com\nTesla’s trailing-twelve-months FCF has improved immensely in recent years, as the company is producing massive amounts of operating cash flow that it never did before, which is owed once again to sales volume and margin growth. Tesla has surpassed the point where it needs to constantly issue capital just to survive because it is creating its own through its operations. This is massively important for the bull case because it means the dilution we’ve seen in recent yearsshouldn’tbe necessary any longer.\nIndeed, if we look at net debt, we can see just how much Tesla’s balance sheet has improved, which again supports not having to dilute shareholders to stay afloat.\nSource: TIKR.com\nNet debt has turned into a net cash position of late, with Tesla having nearly $5 billion in cash and equivalents more than debt. Tesla’s financing situation has improved enormously, and that’s good for those of us that are bullish.\nIs it cheap?\nNot really. But then again revolutionary companies rarely are. The good news is that the price-to-sales ratio has halved since the peak earlier this year, but at 11x forward revenue, I cannot in good conscience call it cheap.\nSource: TIKR.com\nHowever, it is a lot cheaper than it was, and withrevenueslated to rise by more than half this year, and thendoubleagain by 2024, you don’t need the multiple to rise for a bullish outlook.\nI’ll reiterate that there are risks to Tesla. The daily chart is leaning slightly bearish with that descending triangle, but we’re heading into the pre-earnings run-up that Teslausuallyshines during. The weekly chart is showing signs of digestion rather than rolling over. There are competitive risks that aren’t new and will never go way, but the company is still building great EVs that are resonating with customers. Margins and FCF are booming comparatively speaking, and the stock is at roughly half the valuation it was a few months ago.\nAll in all, Tesla almost certainly has a rocky road in front of it, but I’m still bullish given the weight of the evidence.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128549503,"gmtCreate":1624525190102,"gmtModify":1634004881055,"author":{"id":"3581576661121192","authorId":"3581576661121192","name":"我是猪八戒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581576661121192","idStr":"3581576661121192"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128549503","repostId":"2145004822","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145004822","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1624524007,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2145004822?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 16:40","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"Hong Kong stocks end higher as energy, IT shares gain","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145004822","media":"Reuters","summary":"HK->Shanghai Connect daily quota used 7.3%, Shanghai->HK daily quota used 2.3%\nHSI +0.2%, HSCE +0.0%","content":"<ul>\n <li>HK-&gt;Shanghai Connect daily quota used 7.3%, Shanghai-&gt;HK daily quota used 2.3%</li>\n <li>HSI +0.2%, HSCE +0.0%, CSI300 +0.2%</li>\n <li>FTSE China A50 +0.5%</li>\n</ul>\n<p>SHANGHAI, June 24 (Reuters) - Hong Kong stocks eked out gains on Thursday, helped by energy and IT firms, with investors reassessing U.S. Federal Reserve statements on inflation and looking to upcoming data for direction.</p>\n<p>The Hang Seng index ended 65.39 points or 0.23% higher at 28,882.46. The Hang Seng China Enterprises index&nbsp;rose 0.03% to 10,677.31.</p>\n<p>The sub-index of the Hang Seng tracking energy shares&nbsp;rose 0.8%, the IT sector added 0.5%, the financial sector ended 0.01% higher and the property sector dipped 0.19%.</p>\n<p>The top gainer on the Hang Seng was Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd , which gained 3.35%, while the biggest loser was Techtronic Industries Co Ltd , which fell 2%.</p>\n<p>Europe released strong manufacturing activity data on Wednesday, while figures on ISM manufacturing and U.S. non-farm payrolls are due next week.</p>\n<p>On Wednesday, two Fed officials said a period of high inflation in the United States could last longer than anticipated, just a day after Fed Chair Jerome Powell played down rising price pressures.</p>\n<p>Shares of China's property developer Evergrande Group&nbsp;closed up 4.2%, after the company said it had arranged its own funds of HK$13.6 billion ($1.75 billion) to repay bonds due on Monday.</p>\n<p>GCL New Energy Holdings Ltd lost 1.9%, after the U.S. banned imports of solar panel material from Chinese company.</p>\n<p>Around the region, MSCI's Asia ex-Japan stock index&nbsp;was firmer by 0.15%, while Japan's Nikkei index&nbsp;closed unchanged for the day.</p>\n<p>The yuan was quoted at 6.4738 per U.S. dollar at 0813 GMT, 0.02% firmer than the previous close of 6.4748.</p>\n<p>At close, China's A-shares were trading at a premium of 37.80% over Hong Kong-listed H-shares.</p>\n<p>($1 = 7.7645 Hong Kong dollars)</p>\n<p>(Reporting by the Shanghai Newsroom; editing by Uttaresh.V)</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong stocks end higher as energy, IT shares gain</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong stocks end higher as energy, IT shares gain\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-24 16:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<ul>\n <li>HK-&gt;Shanghai Connect daily quota used 7.3%, Shanghai-&gt;HK daily quota used 2.3%</li>\n <li>HSI +0.2%, HSCE +0.0%, CSI300 +0.2%</li>\n <li>FTSE China A50 +0.5%</li>\n</ul>\n<p>SHANGHAI, June 24 (Reuters) - Hong Kong stocks eked out gains on Thursday, helped by energy and IT firms, with investors reassessing U.S. Federal Reserve statements on inflation and looking to upcoming data for direction.</p>\n<p>The Hang Seng index ended 65.39 points or 0.23% higher at 28,882.46. The Hang Seng China Enterprises index&nbsp;rose 0.03% to 10,677.31.</p>\n<p>The sub-index of the Hang Seng tracking energy shares&nbsp;rose 0.8%, the IT sector added 0.5%, the financial sector ended 0.01% higher and the property sector dipped 0.19%.</p>\n<p>The top gainer on the Hang Seng was Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd , which gained 3.35%, while the biggest loser was Techtronic Industries Co Ltd , which fell 2%.</p>\n<p>Europe released strong manufacturing activity data on Wednesday, while figures on ISM manufacturing and U.S. non-farm payrolls are due next week.</p>\n<p>On Wednesday, two Fed officials said a period of high inflation in the United States could last longer than anticipated, just a day after Fed Chair Jerome Powell played down rising price pressures.</p>\n<p>Shares of China's property developer Evergrande Group&nbsp;closed up 4.2%, after the company said it had arranged its own funds of HK$13.6 billion ($1.75 billion) to repay bonds due on Monday.</p>\n<p>GCL New Energy Holdings Ltd lost 1.9%, after the U.S. banned imports of solar panel material from Chinese company.</p>\n<p>Around the region, MSCI's Asia ex-Japan stock index&nbsp;was firmer by 0.15%, while Japan's Nikkei index&nbsp;closed unchanged for the day.</p>\n<p>The yuan was quoted at 6.4738 per U.S. dollar at 0813 GMT, 0.02% firmer than the previous close of 6.4748.</p>\n<p>At close, China's A-shares were trading at a premium of 37.80% over Hong Kong-listed H-shares.</p>\n<p>($1 = 7.7645 Hong Kong dollars)</p>\n<p>(Reporting by the Shanghai Newsroom; editing by Uttaresh.V)</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145004822","content_text":"HK->Shanghai Connect daily quota used 7.3%, Shanghai->HK daily quota used 2.3%\nHSI +0.2%, HSCE +0.0%, CSI300 +0.2%\nFTSE China A50 +0.5%\n\nSHANGHAI, June 24 (Reuters) - Hong Kong stocks eked out gains on Thursday, helped by energy and IT firms, with investors reassessing U.S. Federal Reserve statements on inflation and looking to upcoming data for direction.\nThe Hang Seng index ended 65.39 points or 0.23% higher at 28,882.46. The Hang Seng China Enterprises index rose 0.03% to 10,677.31.\nThe sub-index of the Hang Seng tracking energy shares rose 0.8%, the IT sector added 0.5%, the financial sector ended 0.01% higher and the property sector dipped 0.19%.\nThe top gainer on the Hang Seng was Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd , which gained 3.35%, while the biggest loser was Techtronic Industries Co Ltd , which fell 2%.\nEurope released strong manufacturing activity data on Wednesday, while figures on ISM manufacturing and U.S. non-farm payrolls are due next week.\nOn Wednesday, two Fed officials said a period of high inflation in the United States could last longer than anticipated, just a day after Fed Chair Jerome Powell played down rising price pressures.\nShares of China's property developer Evergrande Group closed up 4.2%, after the company said it had arranged its own funds of HK$13.6 billion ($1.75 billion) to repay bonds due on Monday.\nGCL New Energy Holdings Ltd lost 1.9%, after the U.S. banned imports of solar panel material from Chinese company.\nAround the region, MSCI's Asia ex-Japan stock index was firmer by 0.15%, while Japan's Nikkei index closed unchanged for the day.\nThe yuan was quoted at 6.4738 per U.S. dollar at 0813 GMT, 0.02% firmer than the previous close of 6.4748.\nAt close, China's A-shares were trading at a premium of 37.80% over Hong Kong-listed H-shares.\n($1 = 7.7645 Hong Kong dollars)\n(Reporting by the Shanghai Newsroom; editing by Uttaresh.V)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129118952,"gmtCreate":1624364720876,"gmtModify":1634007262154,"author":{"id":"3581576661121192","authorId":"3581576661121192","name":"我是猪八戒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46251d731bf38cdde74f95a5482e39cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581576661121192","idStr":"3581576661121192"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129118952","repostId":"1195130148","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195130148","pubTimestamp":1624361332,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195130148?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 19:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195130148","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Powell testifies, Russia wants to open the taps, and a Bitcoin death cross.\nTransitory\nFederal Reser","content":"<p>Powell testifies, Russia wants to open the&nbsp;taps, and a Bitcoin death cross.</p>\n<p><b>Transitory</b></p>\n<p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’swritten remarks prepared for today’s appearancebefore the&nbsp;House Select Subcommittee on the coronavirus crisis show him sticking to the position that the pickup in inflation is transitory.Investors will be watching&nbsp;from 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time as Powell’s answers to questions from lawmakers may shed more light on his view on thepace of the economic rebound. The appearance comes after regional Fed presidents yesterday expressed&nbsp;mixed views on when the central bank should start talking abouttapering asset purchases.</p>\n<p><b>Pump</b></p>\n<p>Brent crude, the international oil benchmark,traded above $75 a barrelfor the first time in two years this morning. The rise in prices is due to trader expectations of further supply tightness in the coming quarters. In the U.S., the spread between the third and fourth month West Texas Intermediate futures contracts,&nbsp;hit the widest in seven years. Russia, however, is considering proposing that OPEC and&nbsp;allies will&nbsp;increase outputat the next meeting on July 1 with the global oil market currently estimated to be have a3 million barrels per daydeficit. That news was enough to cap today’s rally, with Brent slipping to $74.40 and WTI dropping to $73.08 a barrel.</p>\n<p><b>Technical signal</b></p>\n<p>The average price of Bitcoin over the past 50 days has fallen below its&nbsp;average price over the past 200 days —&nbsp;a move called a “death cross” by chartists and analysts. While the original cryptocurrency has formed the pattern before and recovered strongly, there is concern about the coindropping below $30,000, with such a move expected to trigger further selling. Bitcoin fell as much as 4.3% overnight and was trading at $31,550 by 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time.</p>\n<p><b>Markets mixed</b></p>\n<p>Global equities are mostly&nbsp;quiet ahead of Powell’s testimony. Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.8% while Japan’s Topix index closed 3.2% higher with the gauge posting its biggest rise in a year after Monday’s selloff. In Europe the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.2% lower at 5:50 a.m. S&amp;P 500 futures were pointing to asmall move into the redat the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.478% andgold slipped.</p>\n<p><b>Coming up...</b></p>\n<p>U.S. existing home sales data for May and June Richmond Fed Manufacturing are at 10:00 a.m. New York City holdsmayoral primary elections.&nbsp;Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and&nbsp;San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speak at separate events before Powell’s testimony to Congress begins at 2:00 p.m. Plug Power Inc. reports earnings.</p>\n<p><b>What we've been reading</b></p>\n<p><i>Here's what caught our eye over the last 24 hours.</i></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The world’s financial centersstruggle back to the office.</li>\n <li>Delta variant gains steam inunder-vaccinated U.S. counties.</li>\n <li>Supreme Court allowsmore compensation for student-athletes.</li>\n <li>Kim’s sister says U.S. has “wrong” views on talks with Pyongyang.</li>\n <li>Tesla unveils supercharging route alongChina’s Silk Road.</li>\n <li>U.K.&nbsp;stilldeeply split on Brexitfive years after referendum.</li>\n <li>Thelithium mine versus the wildflower.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>And finally, here’s what Joe’s interested in&nbsp;this morning</b></p>\n<p>The rise of crypto has brought new awareness to fiat currency. It makes sense. The first time in a fish's life where it ever thinks about water is when it's flapping around on a boat deck gasping for oxygen. It's only through the introduction of some seemingly oppositional force that we become aware of the world we're immersed in.</p>\n<p>And this isn't just conjecture. You can see it in the data. AGoogle Trendschart for Bitcoin looks almost exactly like the chart for Fiat Currency.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a21c0bc64fadb423d71e7abd80f10295\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"298\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/471986c0226279332829bd5fb79d9dd7\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"303\">We've been swimming all this time in the world of dollars and yen and francs and pounds, and so we haven't had the chance to really think about fiat currencies. And it shows.</p>\n<p>So many people's mental models of money are rooted in gold-standard thinking. People talk all the time, for example, about how we're going to \"debase\" the currency. But that word makes no sense in the fiat realm, as it logically relates to the concept of making a gold coin less pure bydegrading or adulterating its substance, as if the dollar were&nbsp;old Roman coins thathad less and less silver contentover time.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f84a6f21a18c65383599405a3ca9f1c\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"440\">Numerous conversations about \"money printing\" or \"how are we going to pay for it?\" have an implied basis in gold standard thinking. Like somehow we're going to run out or be forced to go cap in hand around the world looking for generous donors.</p>\n<p>With any luck the surge in interest in fiat currency -- which again, we have to thank crypto for -- gets us to think more deeply about it and how currencies whose&nbsp;value is rooted in law and public convention have&nbsp;different characteristics than what came before, and what's come after.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFive Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-22 19:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-06-22/five-things-you-need-to-know-to-start-your-day?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Powell testifies, Russia wants to open the taps, and a Bitcoin death cross.\nTransitory\nFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’swritten remarks prepared for today’s appearancebefore the House Select ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-06-22/five-things-you-need-to-know-to-start-your-day?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-06-22/five-things-you-need-to-know-to-start-your-day?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195130148","content_text":"Powell testifies, Russia wants to open the taps, and a Bitcoin death cross.\nTransitory\nFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’swritten remarks prepared for today’s appearancebefore the House Select Subcommittee on the coronavirus crisis show him sticking to the position that the pickup in inflation is transitory.Investors will be watching from 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time as Powell’s answers to questions from lawmakers may shed more light on his view on thepace of the economic rebound. The appearance comes after regional Fed presidents yesterday expressed mixed views on when the central bank should start talking abouttapering asset purchases.\nPump\nBrent crude, the international oil benchmark,traded above $75 a barrelfor the first time in two years this morning. The rise in prices is due to trader expectations of further supply tightness in the coming quarters. In the U.S., the spread between the third and fourth month West Texas Intermediate futures contracts, hit the widest in seven years. Russia, however, is considering proposing that OPEC and allies will increase outputat the next meeting on July 1 with the global oil market currently estimated to be have a3 million barrels per daydeficit. That news was enough to cap today’s rally, with Brent slipping to $74.40 and WTI dropping to $73.08 a barrel.\nTechnical signal\nThe average price of Bitcoin over the past 50 days has fallen below its average price over the past 200 days — a move called a “death cross” by chartists and analysts. While the original cryptocurrency has formed the pattern before and recovered strongly, there is concern about the coindropping below $30,000, with such a move expected to trigger further selling. Bitcoin fell as much as 4.3% overnight and was trading at $31,550 by 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time.\nMarkets mixed\nGlobal equities are mostly quiet ahead of Powell’s testimony. Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.8% while Japan’s Topix index closed 3.2% higher with the gauge posting its biggest rise in a year after Monday’s selloff. In Europe the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.2% lower at 5:50 a.m. S&P 500 futures were pointing to asmall move into the redat the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.478% andgold slipped.\nComing up...\nU.S. existing home sales data for May and June Richmond Fed Manufacturing are at 10:00 a.m. New York City holdsmayoral primary elections. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speak at separate events before Powell’s testimony to Congress begins at 2:00 p.m. Plug Power Inc. reports earnings.\nWhat we've been reading\nHere's what caught our eye over the last 24 hours.\n\nThe world’s financial centersstruggle back to the office.\nDelta variant gains steam inunder-vaccinated U.S. counties.\nSupreme Court allowsmore compensation for student-athletes.\nKim’s sister says U.S. has “wrong” views on talks with Pyongyang.\nTesla unveils supercharging route alongChina’s Silk Road.\nU.K. stilldeeply split on Brexitfive years after referendum.\nThelithium mine versus the wildflower.\n\nAnd finally, here’s what Joe’s interested in this morning\nThe rise of crypto has brought new awareness to fiat currency. It makes sense. The first time in a fish's life where it ever thinks about water is when it's flapping around on a boat deck gasping for oxygen. It's only through the introduction of some seemingly oppositional force that we become aware of the world we're immersed in.\nAnd this isn't just conjecture. You can see it in the data. AGoogle Trendschart for Bitcoin looks almost exactly like the chart for Fiat Currency.\nWe've been swimming all this time in the world of dollars and yen and francs and pounds, and so we haven't had the chance to really think about fiat currencies. And it shows.\nSo many people's mental models of money are rooted in gold-standard thinking. People talk all the time, for example, about how we're going to \"debase\" the currency. But that word makes no sense in the fiat realm, as it logically relates to the concept of making a gold coin less pure bydegrading or adulterating its substance, as if the dollar were old Roman coins thathad less and less silver contentover time.\nNumerous conversations about \"money printing\" or \"how are we going to pay for it?\" have an implied basis in gold standard thinking. Like somehow we're going to run out or be forced to go cap in hand around the world looking for generous donors.\nWith any luck the surge in interest in fiat currency -- which again, we have to thank crypto for -- gets us to think more deeply about it and how currencies whose value is rooted in law and public convention have different characteristics than what came before, and what's come after.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}