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SongYong

SongYong

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2021-08-13

Ok

Liquidity Is Evaporating Even Before Fed Taper Hits Markets

2021-07-03

From past, i found regret to buy shares like gamestop and AMC, as the price is very fluctuating due to those big sharks used it as hedging. This has make me awake and lesson for me.

@小虎活动:【有奖征文】2021上半年投资大复盘，聊聊投资中最不简单的事儿

2021-06-21

我的计划是等你带飞

@Buy_Sell:【6月21日】今天有什么交易计划？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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22:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Liquidity Is Evaporating Even Before Fed Taper Hits Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162909242","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"A measure of U.S. financial liquidity whose declines foreshadowed two of the decade’s worst equity r","content":"<p>A measure of U.S. financial liquidity whose declines foreshadowed two of the decade’s worst equity routs is flashing alarms even before the Federal Reserve embarks on its planned winding down of asset purchases.</p>\n<p>The signal is obscure, but has sent meaningful signs in the past. Roughly speaking, it’s the gap between the rates of growth in money supply and gross domestic product, an indicator known to eco-geeks as Marshallian K. It just turned negative for the first time since 2018, meaning GDP is rising faster than the government’s M2 account.</p>\n<p>The shortfall comes from an expanding economy that’s quickly depleting the nation’s available money. The deficit could become a problem for markets at a time when excess liquidity is seen as underpinning rallies in everything from Bitcoin to meme stocks.</p>\n<p>“Put another way, the recovering economy is now drinking from a punch bowl that the stock market once had all to itself,” Doug Ramsey, Leuthold Group’s chief investment officer, wrote in a note last week.</p>\n<p>How big a threat is this? While stocks kept rising during frequent negative Marshallian K readings in the 1990s, the pattern since the 2008 global financial crisis -- a period when the central bank was in what Ramsey calls a “perpetual crisis mode” -- begs for caution.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29bd13488ad9f3e748da28092473f23e\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The Marshallian K fell below zero in 2010, a year when the S&amp;P 500 Index suffered a 16% correction. A similar dip in 2018 portended a selloff that almost killed that bull market.</p>\n<p>The Leuthold study is the latest attempt to handicap the market’s outlook from the perspective of liquidity. But not everyone is worried. Ed Yardeni, the president and founder of Yardeni Research Inc., says he prefers to plot not the growth rates but the absolute level of M2 against GDP to measure liquidity. Based on that, liquidity stood near a record high.</p>\n<p>“Some people start to freak out about the M2 growth rate,” he said in an interview on Bloomberg TV and Radio. “What they don’t really appreciate is M2 today is $5 trillion higher than it was before the pandemic. There is just a tremendous liquidity sitting there.”</p>\n<p>Others see limited impact from Fed tapering on the equity market. In June,researchfrom UBS Group AG showed that should the Fed turn off the spigot on its annual $1.4 trillion in quantitative-easing spending, the hit to the S&amp;P 500 would be a paltry 3% decline in prices.</p>\n<p>In 2013, when the Fed’s announcement on a reduction in stimulus sparked ataper tantrumthat sent 10-year Treasury yields skyward, the S&amp;P 500 pulled back almost 6% from its May peak that year. But stocks staged a full recovery within weeks and went on with a rally that eventually lifted the index 30% for the whole year.</p>\n<p>Skeptics, however, are quick to point out one big difference: equity valuations.</p>\n<p>“Back then, the stock market was trading at 15 times earnings. Now it’s 22 times earnings,” Matt Maley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co., said in an interview on Bloomberg TV with Caroline Hyde. “It will be hard for the market to ignore it this time around.”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37c0e312361e509a3fc0e8bfb3d9c649\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>For now, a liquidity drain suggested by the Marshallian K data has done little damage to the market, at least on the index level. The S&amp;P 500 is poised for a seventh straight monthly gain, reaching all-time highs almost every week.</p>\n<p>But Ramsey warns investors shouldn’t let their guard down. While the broad market has been strong -- the S&amp;P 500 closed Wednesday at a record for the 46th time this year -- fewer stocks are participating in the latest leg up. This could be blamed on falling liquidity, he says, and the days of abundant cash floating all stocks are likely gone.</p>\n<p>The Marshallian K indicator just slumped intonegative territoryfaster than ever. During the second quarter, M2 money expanded 12.7% from a year ago, trailing the nominal GDP growth rate of 16.7%. That came after four quarters of excessive liquidity where the spread stayed above 20 percentage points.</p>\n<p>“The Marshallian K now shows liquidity not only deteriorating but actually contracting -- and at a time when hopes (as embedded in valuations) have never been higher,” Ramsey said. “If the Fed can drawdown QE in the next year without triggering a decline of those levels, it will truly have achieved something remarkable. But we’d rather invest based on the probable.”</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Liquidity Is Evaporating Even Before Fed Taper Hits Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLiquidity Is Evaporating Even Before Fed Taper Hits Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-12 22:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-11/liquidity-is-evaporating-even-before-the-fed-taper-hits-markets><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A measure of U.S. financial liquidity whose declines foreshadowed two of the decade’s worst equity routs is flashing alarms even before the Federal Reserve embarks on its planned winding down of asset...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-11/liquidity-is-evaporating-even-before-the-fed-taper-hits-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-11/liquidity-is-evaporating-even-before-the-fed-taper-hits-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162909242","content_text":"A measure of U.S. financial liquidity whose declines foreshadowed two of the decade’s worst equity routs is flashing alarms even before the Federal Reserve embarks on its planned winding down of asset purchases.\nThe signal is obscure, but has sent meaningful signs in the past. Roughly speaking, it’s the gap between the rates of growth in money supply and gross domestic product, an indicator known to eco-geeks as Marshallian K. It just turned negative for the first time since 2018, meaning GDP is rising faster than the government’s M2 account.\nThe shortfall comes from an expanding economy that’s quickly depleting the nation’s available money. The deficit could become a problem for markets at a time when excess liquidity is seen as underpinning rallies in everything from Bitcoin to meme stocks.\n“Put another way, the recovering economy is now drinking from a punch bowl that the stock market once had all to itself,” Doug Ramsey, Leuthold Group’s chief investment officer, wrote in a note last week.\nHow big a threat is this? While stocks kept rising during frequent negative Marshallian K readings in the 1990s, the pattern since the 2008 global financial crisis -- a period when the central bank was in what Ramsey calls a “perpetual crisis mode” -- begs for caution.\n\nThe Marshallian K fell below zero in 2010, a year when the S&P 500 Index suffered a 16% correction. A similar dip in 2018 portended a selloff that almost killed that bull market.\nThe Leuthold study is the latest attempt to handicap the market’s outlook from the perspective of liquidity. But not everyone is worried. Ed Yardeni, the president and founder of Yardeni Research Inc., says he prefers to plot not the growth rates but the absolute level of M2 against GDP to measure liquidity. Based on that, liquidity stood near a record high.\n“Some people start to freak out about the M2 growth rate,” he said in an interview on Bloomberg TV and Radio. “What they don’t really appreciate is M2 today is $5 trillion higher than it was before the pandemic. There is just a tremendous liquidity sitting there.”\nOthers see limited impact from Fed tapering on the equity market. In June,researchfrom UBS Group AG showed that should the Fed turn off the spigot on its annual $1.4 trillion in quantitative-easing spending, the hit to the S&P 500 would be a paltry 3% decline in prices.\nIn 2013, when the Fed’s announcement on a reduction in stimulus sparked ataper tantrumthat sent 10-year Treasury yields skyward, the S&P 500 pulled back almost 6% from its May peak that year. But stocks staged a full recovery within weeks and went on with a rally that eventually lifted the index 30% for the whole year.\nSkeptics, however, are quick to point out one big difference: equity valuations.\n“Back then, the stock market was trading at 15 times earnings. Now it’s 22 times earnings,” Matt Maley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co., said in an interview on Bloomberg TV with Caroline Hyde. “It will be hard for the market to ignore it this time around.”\n\nFor now, a liquidity drain suggested by the Marshallian K data has done little damage to the market, at least on the index level. The S&P 500 is poised for a seventh straight monthly gain, reaching all-time highs almost every week.\nBut Ramsey warns investors shouldn’t let their guard down. While the broad market has been strong -- the S&P 500 closed Wednesday at a record for the 46th time this year -- fewer stocks are participating in the latest leg up. This could be blamed on falling liquidity, he says, and the days of abundant cash floating all stocks are likely gone.\nThe Marshallian K indicator just slumped intonegative territoryfaster than ever. During the second quarter, M2 money expanded 12.7% from a year ago, trailing the nominal GDP growth rate of 16.7%. That came after four quarters of excessive liquidity where the spread stayed above 20 percentage points.\n“The Marshallian K now shows liquidity not only deteriorating but actually contracting -- and at a time when hopes (as embedded in valuations) have never been higher,” Ramsey said. “If the Fed can drawdown QE in the next year without triggering a decline of those levels, it will truly have achieved something remarkable. But we’d rather invest based on the probable.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152593770,"gmtCreate":1625306753690,"gmtModify":1633941569589,"author":{"id":"3581546936450688","authorId":"3581546936450688","name":"SongYong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9a9d0f6cfe6fbb661560479b389a828","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581546936450688","authorIdStr":"3581546936450688"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"From past, i found regret to buy shares like gamestop and AMC, as the price is very fluctuating due to those big sharks used it as hedging. This has make me awake and lesson for me.","listText":"From past, i found regret to buy shares like gamestop and AMC, as the price is very fluctuating due to those big sharks used it as hedging. This has make me awake and lesson for me.","text":"From past, i found regret to buy shares like gamestop and AMC, as the price is very fluctuating due to those big sharks used it as hedging. This has make me awake and lesson for me.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152593770","repostId":"156505358","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":156505358,"gmtCreate":1625228573670,"gmtModify":1631885184010,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"【有奖征文】2021上半年投资大复盘，聊聊投资中最不简单的事儿","htmlText":"写复盘，赢大礼，你交易，我买单！ 投资的过程和操作其实是一个很简单的事情，一买一卖就完成了一笔交易，但是要理解这个过程却非常的复杂，涉及宏观，行业，公司基本面等方方面面。投资过程的简单，是一种形的简单。学习就是将简单的问题复杂化之后，抽丝剥茧再让其简单化。而复盘正是学习的环节中必不可少的一部分。 上半年已悄然走过，你的成绩如何？对自己的投资表现满意吗？投资需要不断地总结，才能不断地进步！对于上半年的投资，你觉得哪些方面需要继续保持，又有哪些方面需要总结和提高？对于下半年的行情，你怎么看？你看好哪些投资标的和投资机会？欢迎虎友们畅所欲言！ 【参与方式】 在“2021上半年投资大复盘”主题下发帖，或者题目中包含“2021上半年投资大复盘”等关键字 。写什么？虎友们可以自由发挥！ （2021上半年关于投资的一切总结内容都可以写），如果没有思路，也可以参考以下模板： 2021上半年，你的收益率是多少？是否跑赢大盘，是否达到你的目标 2021上半年，你曾做了哪些“神操作”？得到什么启发？ 2021上半年，哪次失败的投资让你记忆犹新？为什么？ 2021年下半年，有哪些投资计划和展望？ 友情提示：篇幅长的虎友可以在发帖时选择“写长帖’也可以使用老虎社区网页发帖可支持多图及长文格式哦：www.laohu8.com 【活动时间】 即日起至7月30日 【活动奖品】 一等奖：你下半年的佣金我全包了 二等奖：你季度的佣金我全包了 三等奖：你这个月的佣金我全包了 参与奖：也可称为阳光普照奖，凡在“2021上半年投资大复盘”主题下发帖或者在本帖参与回复的用户，均可获得66虎币。 【奖品发放细则】 我们将在活动结束10个工作日内，公布中奖用户名单，并在公布获奖名单一周内为大家派发免佣卡。免佣卡可免除美港股股票，ETF交易中老虎证券应收的交易佣金，单笔免佣上限15美元或等值港币。 一等奖为180天免佣卡，","listText":"写复盘，赢大礼，你交易，我买单！ 投资的过程和操作其实是一个很简单的事情，一买一卖就完成了一笔交易，但是要理解这个过程却非常的复杂，涉及宏观，行业，公司基本面等方方面面。投资过程的简单，是一种形的简单。学习就是将简单的问题复杂化之后，抽丝剥茧再让其简单化。而复盘正是学习的环节中必不可少的一部分。 上半年已悄然走过，你的成绩如何？对自己的投资表现满意吗？投资需要不断地总结，才能不断地进步！对于上半年的投资，你觉得哪些方面需要继续保持，又有哪些方面需要总结和提高？对于下半年的行情，你怎么看？你看好哪些投资标的和投资机会？欢迎虎友们畅所欲言！ 【参与方式】 在“2021上半年投资大复盘”主题下发帖，或者题目中包含“2021上半年投资大复盘”等关键字 。写什么？虎友们可以自由发挥！ （2021上半年关于投资的一切总结内容都可以写），如果没有思路，也可以参考以下模板： 2021上半年，你的收益率是多少？是否跑赢大盘，是否达到你的目标 2021上半年，你曾做了哪些“神操作”？得到什么启发？ 2021上半年，哪次失败的投资让你记忆犹新？为什么？ 2021年下半年，有哪些投资计划和展望？ 友情提示：篇幅长的虎友可以在发帖时选择“写长帖’也可以使用老虎社区网页发帖可支持多图及长文格式哦：www.laohu8.com 【活动时间】 即日起至7月30日 【活动奖品】 一等奖：你下半年的佣金我全包了 二等奖：你季度的佣金我全包了 三等奖：你这个月的佣金我全包了 参与奖：也可称为阳光普照奖，凡在“2021上半年投资大复盘”主题下发帖或者在本帖参与回复的用户，均可获得66虎币。 【奖品发放细则】 我们将在活动结束10个工作日内，公布中奖用户名单，并在公布获奖名单一周内为大家派发免佣卡。免佣卡可免除美港股股票，ETF交易中老虎证券应收的交易佣金，单笔免佣上限15美元或等值港币。 一等奖为180天免佣卡，","text":"写复盘，赢大礼，你交易，我买单！ 投资的过程和操作其实是一个很简单的事情，一买一卖就完成了一笔交易，但是要理解这个过程却非常的复杂，涉及宏观，行业，公司基本面等方方面面。投资过程的简单，是一种形的简单。学习就是将简单的问题复杂化之后，抽丝剥茧再让其简单化。而复盘正是学习的环节中必不可少的一部分。 上半年已悄然走过，你的成绩如何？对自己的投资表现满意吗？投资需要不断地总结，才能不断地进步！对于上半年的投资，你觉得哪些方面需要继续保持，又有哪些方面需要总结和提高？对于下半年的行情，你怎么看？你看好哪些投资标的和投资机会？欢迎虎友们畅所欲言！ 【参与方式】 在“2021上半年投资大复盘”主题下发帖，或者题目中包含“2021上半年投资大复盘”等关键字 。写什么？虎友们可以自由发挥！ （2021上半年关于投资的一切总结内容都可以写），如果没有思路，也可以参考以下模板： 2021上半年，你的收益率是多少？是否跑赢大盘，是否达到你的目标 2021上半年，你曾做了哪些“神操作”？得到什么启发？ 2021上半年，哪次失败的投资让你记忆犹新？为什么？ 2021年下半年，有哪些投资计划和展望？ 友情提示：篇幅长的虎友可以在发帖时选择“写长帖’也可以使用老虎社区网页发帖可支持多图及长文格式哦：www.laohu8.com 【活动时间】 即日起至7月30日 【活动奖品】 一等奖：你下半年的佣金我全包了 二等奖：你季度的佣金我全包了 三等奖：你这个月的佣金我全包了 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 港股市场 6月21日，港股主要指数全线低开，恒指跌1.04%报28501点，国指底0.94%报1546点，恒生科技指数跌1.07%报7955点。 盘面上，钢铁股强势，鞍钢股份大幅上涨8%；药品股、电信股、燃气股多数上涨，此前连续大跌的中国燃气止跌；光伏股、汽车股、铜、等板块大跌，体育用品股涨跌不一，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01368\">$特步国际(01368)$</a> 跌3%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02331\">$李宁(02331)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01361\">$361度(01361)$</a> 小幅高开；大型科技股普跌，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">$网易-S(09999)$</a> 跌超3%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> 皆跌超1%。 鞍钢股份涨8%，预计上半年净利同比增860%。 美股市场 经济数据方面：中国LPR利率、美国PCE物价指数、美国初请失业金人数、美国Markit制造业PM","listText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。  港股市场 6月21日，港股主要指数全线低开，恒指跌1.04%报28501点，国指底0.94%报1546点，恒生科技指数跌1.07%报7955点。 盘面上，钢铁股强势，鞍钢股份大幅上涨8%；药品股、电信股、燃气股多数上涨，此前连续大跌的中国燃气止跌；光伏股、汽车股、铜、等板块大跌，体育用品股涨跌不一，<a 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经济数据方面：中国LPR利率、美国PCE物价指数、美国初请失业金人数、美国Markit制造业PM","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb7a3e27ec573424a685417a6acc098e","width":"240","height":"240"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167924304","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":167165091,"gmtCreate":1624252866813,"gmtModify":1634008830107,"author":{"id":"3581546936450688","authorId":"3581546936450688","name":"SongYong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9a9d0f6cfe6fbb661560479b389a828","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581546936450688","authorIdStr":"3581546936450688"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我的计划是等你带飞","listText":"我的计划是等你带飞","text":"我的计划是等你带飞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167165091","repostId":"167924304","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":167924304,"gmtCreate":1624243574804,"gmtModify":1624243965493,"author":{"id":"3527667596890271","authorId":"3527667596890271","name":"Buy_Sell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5f0ed79a338c758a22e0b4ea13bf9d2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667596890271","authorIdStr":"3527667596890271"},"themes":[],"title":"【6月21日】今天有什么交易计划？","htmlText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。  港股市场 6月21日，港股主要指数全线低开，恒指跌1.04%报28501点，国指底0.94%报1546点，恒生科技指数跌1.07%报7955点。 盘面上，钢铁股强势，鞍钢股份大幅上涨8%；药品股、电信股、燃气股多数上涨，此前连续大跌的中国燃气止跌；光伏股、汽车股、铜、等板块大跌，体育用品股涨跌不一，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01368\">$特步国际(01368)$</a> 跌3%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02331\">$李宁(02331)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01361\">$361度(01361)$</a> 小幅高开；大型科技股普跌，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">$网易-S(09999)$</a> 跌超3%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> 皆跌超1%。 鞍钢股份涨8%，预计上半年净利同比增860%。 美股市场 经济数据方面：中国LPR利率、美国PCE物价指数、美国初请失业金人数、美国Markit制造业PM","listText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。  港股市场 6月21日，港股主要指数全线低开，恒指跌1.04%报28501点，国指底0.94%报1546点，恒生科技指数跌1.07%报7955点。 盘面上，钢铁股强势，鞍钢股份大幅上涨8%；药品股、电信股、燃气股多数上涨，此前连续大跌的中国燃气止跌；光伏股、汽车股、铜、等板块大跌，体育用品股涨跌不一，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01368\">$特步国际(01368)$</a> 跌3%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02331\">$李宁(02331)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01361\">$361度(01361)$</a> 小幅高开；大型科技股普跌，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">$网易-S(09999)$</a> 跌超3%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> 皆跌超1%。 鞍钢股份涨8%，预计上半年净利同比增860%。 美股市场 经济数据方面：中国LPR利率、美国PCE物价指数、美国初请失业金人数、美国Markit制造业PM","text":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 6月21日，港股主要指数全线低开，恒指跌1.04%报28501点，国指底0.94%报1546点，恒生科技指数跌1.07%报7955点。 盘面上，钢铁股强势，鞍钢股份大幅上涨8%；药品股、电信股、燃气股多数上涨，此前连续大跌的中国燃气止跌；光伏股、汽车股、铜、等板块大跌，体育用品股涨跌不一，$特步国际(01368)$ 跌3%，$李宁(02331)$ 、$361度(01361)$ 小幅高开；大型科技股普跌，$网易-S(09999)$ 跌超3%，$美团-W(03690)$ 、$快手-W(01024)$ 、$小米集团-W(01810)$ 皆跌超1%。 鞍钢股份涨8%，预计上半年净利同比增860%。 美股市场 经济数据方面：中国LPR利率、美国PCE物价指数、美国初请失业金人数、美国Markit制造业PM","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb7a3e27ec573424a685417a6acc098e","width":"240","height":"240"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167924304","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":152593770,"gmtCreate":1625306753690,"gmtModify":1633941569589,"author":{"id":"3581546936450688","authorId":"3581546936450688","name":"SongYong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9a9d0f6cfe6fbb661560479b389a828","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581546936450688","authorIdStr":"3581546936450688"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"From past, i found regret to buy shares like gamestop and AMC, as the price is very fluctuating due to those big sharks used it as hedging. This has make me awake and lesson for me.","listText":"From past, i found regret to buy shares like gamestop and AMC, as the price is very fluctuating due to those big sharks used it as hedging. This has make me awake and lesson for me.","text":"From past, i found regret to buy shares like gamestop and AMC, as the price is very fluctuating due to those big sharks used it as hedging. This has make me awake and lesson for me.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152593770","repostId":"156505358","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":156505358,"gmtCreate":1625228573670,"gmtModify":1631885184010,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"【有奖征文】2021上半年投资大复盘，聊聊投资中最不简单的事儿","htmlText":"写复盘，赢大礼，你交易，我买单！ 投资的过程和操作其实是一个很简单的事情，一买一卖就完成了一笔交易，但是要理解这个过程却非常的复杂，涉及宏观，行业，公司基本面等方方面面。投资过程的简单，是一种形的简单。学习就是将简单的问题复杂化之后，抽丝剥茧再让其简单化。而复盘正是学习的环节中必不可少的一部分。 上半年已悄然走过，你的成绩如何？对自己的投资表现满意吗？投资需要不断地总结，才能不断地进步！对于上半年的投资，你觉得哪些方面需要继续保持，又有哪些方面需要总结和提高？对于下半年的行情，你怎么看？你看好哪些投资标的和投资机会？欢迎虎友们畅所欲言！ 【参与方式】 在“2021上半年投资大复盘”主题下发帖，或者题目中包含“2021上半年投资大复盘”等关键字 。写什么？虎友们可以自由发挥！ （2021上半年关于投资的一切总结内容都可以写），如果没有思路，也可以参考以下模板： 2021上半年，你的收益率是多少？是否跑赢大盘，是否达到你的目标 2021上半年，你曾做了哪些“神操作”？得到什么启发？ 2021上半年，哪次失败的投资让你记忆犹新？为什么？ 2021年下半年，有哪些投资计划和展望？ 友情提示：篇幅长的虎友可以在发帖时选择“写长帖’也可以使用老虎社区网页发帖可支持多图及长文格式哦：www.laohu8.com 【活动时间】 即日起至7月30日 【活动奖品】 一等奖：你下半年的佣金我全包了 二等奖：你季度的佣金我全包了 三等奖：你这个月的佣金我全包了 参与奖：也可称为阳光普照奖，凡在“2021上半年投资大复盘”主题下发帖或者在本帖参与回复的用户，均可获得66虎币。 【奖品发放细则】 我们将在活动结束10个工作日内，公布中奖用户名单，并在公布获奖名单一周内为大家派发免佣卡。免佣卡可免除美港股股票，ETF交易中老虎证券应收的交易佣金，单笔免佣上限15美元或等值港币。 一等奖为180天免佣卡，","listText":"写复盘，赢大礼，你交易，我买单！ 投资的过程和操作其实是一个很简单的事情，一买一卖就完成了一笔交易，但是要理解这个过程却非常的复杂，涉及宏观，行业，公司基本面等方方面面。投资过程的简单，是一种形的简单。学习就是将简单的问题复杂化之后，抽丝剥茧再让其简单化。而复盘正是学习的环节中必不可少的一部分。 上半年已悄然走过，你的成绩如何？对自己的投资表现满意吗？投资需要不断地总结，才能不断地进步！对于上半年的投资，你觉得哪些方面需要继续保持，又有哪些方面需要总结和提高？对于下半年的行情，你怎么看？你看好哪些投资标的和投资机会？欢迎虎友们畅所欲言！ 【参与方式】 在“2021上半年投资大复盘”主题下发帖，或者题目中包含“2021上半年投资大复盘”等关键字 。写什么？虎友们可以自由发挥！ （2021上半年关于投资的一切总结内容都可以写），如果没有思路，也可以参考以下模板： 2021上半年，你的收益率是多少？是否跑赢大盘，是否达到你的目标 2021上半年，你曾做了哪些“神操作”？得到什么启发？ 2021上半年，哪次失败的投资让你记忆犹新？为什么？ 2021年下半年，有哪些投资计划和展望？ 友情提示：篇幅长的虎友可以在发帖时选择“写长帖’也可以使用老虎社区网页发帖可支持多图及长文格式哦：www.laohu8.com 【活动时间】 即日起至7月30日 【活动奖品】 一等奖：你下半年的佣金我全包了 二等奖：你季度的佣金我全包了 三等奖：你这个月的佣金我全包了 参与奖：也可称为阳光普照奖，凡在“2021上半年投资大复盘”主题下发帖或者在本帖参与回复的用户，均可获得66虎币。 【奖品发放细则】 我们将在活动结束10个工作日内，公布中奖用户名单，并在公布获奖名单一周内为大家派发免佣卡。免佣卡可免除美港股股票，ETF交易中老虎证券应收的交易佣金，单笔免佣上限15美元或等值港币。 一等奖为180天免佣卡，","text":"写复盘，赢大礼，你交易，我买单！ 投资的过程和操作其实是一个很简单的事情，一买一卖就完成了一笔交易，但是要理解这个过程却非常的复杂，涉及宏观，行业，公司基本面等方方面面。投资过程的简单，是一种形的简单。学习就是将简单的问题复杂化之后，抽丝剥茧再让其简单化。而复盘正是学习的环节中必不可少的一部分。 上半年已悄然走过，你的成绩如何？对自己的投资表现满意吗？投资需要不断地总结，才能不断地进步！对于上半年的投资，你觉得哪些方面需要继续保持，又有哪些方面需要总结和提高？对于下半年的行情，你怎么看？你看好哪些投资标的和投资机会？欢迎虎友们畅所欲言！ 【参与方式】 在“2021上半年投资大复盘”主题下发帖，或者题目中包含“2021上半年投资大复盘”等关键字 。写什么？虎友们可以自由发挥！ （2021上半年关于投资的一切总结内容都可以写），如果没有思路，也可以参考以下模板： 2021上半年，你的收益率是多少？是否跑赢大盘，是否达到你的目标 2021上半年，你曾做了哪些“神操作”？得到什么启发？ 2021上半年，哪次失败的投资让你记忆犹新？为什么？ 2021年下半年，有哪些投资计划和展望？ 友情提示：篇幅长的虎友可以在发帖时选择“写长帖’也可以使用老虎社区网页发帖可支持多图及长文格式哦：www.laohu8.com 【活动时间】 即日起至7月30日 【活动奖品】 一等奖：你下半年的佣金我全包了 二等奖：你季度的佣金我全包了 三等奖：你这个月的佣金我全包了 参与奖：也可称为阳光普照奖，凡在“2021上半年投资大复盘”主题下发帖或者在本帖参与回复的用户，均可获得66虎币。 【奖品发放细则】 我们将在活动结束10个工作日内，公布中奖用户名单，并在公布获奖名单一周内为大家派发免佣卡。免佣卡可免除美港股股票，ETF交易中老虎证券应收的交易佣金，单笔免佣上限15美元或等值港币。 一等奖为180天免佣卡，","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0c86e0d1b8991a3fbf696e9a6a2777","width":"840","height":"540"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156505358","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894149824,"gmtCreate":1628813467968,"gmtModify":1633689326938,"author":{"id":"3581546936450688","authorId":"3581546936450688","name":"SongYong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9a9d0f6cfe6fbb661560479b389a828","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581546936450688","authorIdStr":"3581546936450688"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894149824","repostId":"1162909242","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162909242","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628779877,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162909242?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-12 22:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Liquidity Is Evaporating Even Before Fed Taper Hits Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162909242","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"A measure of U.S. financial liquidity whose declines foreshadowed two of the decade’s worst equity r","content":"<p>A measure of U.S. financial liquidity whose declines foreshadowed two of the decade’s worst equity routs is flashing alarms even before the Federal Reserve embarks on its planned winding down of asset purchases.</p>\n<p>The signal is obscure, but has sent meaningful signs in the past. Roughly speaking, it’s the gap between the rates of growth in money supply and gross domestic product, an indicator known to eco-geeks as Marshallian K. It just turned negative for the first time since 2018, meaning GDP is rising faster than the government’s M2 account.</p>\n<p>The shortfall comes from an expanding economy that’s quickly depleting the nation’s available money. The deficit could become a problem for markets at a time when excess liquidity is seen as underpinning rallies in everything from Bitcoin to meme stocks.</p>\n<p>“Put another way, the recovering economy is now drinking from a punch bowl that the stock market once had all to itself,” Doug Ramsey, Leuthold Group’s chief investment officer, wrote in a note last week.</p>\n<p>How big a threat is this? While stocks kept rising during frequent negative Marshallian K readings in the 1990s, the pattern since the 2008 global financial crisis -- a period when the central bank was in what Ramsey calls a “perpetual crisis mode” -- begs for caution.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29bd13488ad9f3e748da28092473f23e\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The Marshallian K fell below zero in 2010, a year when the S&amp;P 500 Index suffered a 16% correction. A similar dip in 2018 portended a selloff that almost killed that bull market.</p>\n<p>The Leuthold study is the latest attempt to handicap the market’s outlook from the perspective of liquidity. But not everyone is worried. Ed Yardeni, the president and founder of Yardeni Research Inc., says he prefers to plot not the growth rates but the absolute level of M2 against GDP to measure liquidity. Based on that, liquidity stood near a record high.</p>\n<p>“Some people start to freak out about the M2 growth rate,” he said in an interview on Bloomberg TV and Radio. “What they don’t really appreciate is M2 today is $5 trillion higher than it was before the pandemic. There is just a tremendous liquidity sitting there.”</p>\n<p>Others see limited impact from Fed tapering on the equity market. In June,researchfrom UBS Group AG showed that should the Fed turn off the spigot on its annual $1.4 trillion in quantitative-easing spending, the hit to the S&amp;P 500 would be a paltry 3% decline in prices.</p>\n<p>In 2013, when the Fed’s announcement on a reduction in stimulus sparked ataper tantrumthat sent 10-year Treasury yields skyward, the S&amp;P 500 pulled back almost 6% from its May peak that year. But stocks staged a full recovery within weeks and went on with a rally that eventually lifted the index 30% for the whole year.</p>\n<p>Skeptics, however, are quick to point out one big difference: equity valuations.</p>\n<p>“Back then, the stock market was trading at 15 times earnings. Now it’s 22 times earnings,” Matt Maley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co., said in an interview on Bloomberg TV with Caroline Hyde. “It will be hard for the market to ignore it this time around.”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37c0e312361e509a3fc0e8bfb3d9c649\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>For now, a liquidity drain suggested by the Marshallian K data has done little damage to the market, at least on the index level. The S&amp;P 500 is poised for a seventh straight monthly gain, reaching all-time highs almost every week.</p>\n<p>But Ramsey warns investors shouldn’t let their guard down. While the broad market has been strong -- the S&amp;P 500 closed Wednesday at a record for the 46th time this year -- fewer stocks are participating in the latest leg up. This could be blamed on falling liquidity, he says, and the days of abundant cash floating all stocks are likely gone.</p>\n<p>The Marshallian K indicator just slumped intonegative territoryfaster than ever. During the second quarter, M2 money expanded 12.7% from a year ago, trailing the nominal GDP growth rate of 16.7%. That came after four quarters of excessive liquidity where the spread stayed above 20 percentage points.</p>\n<p>“The Marshallian K now shows liquidity not only deteriorating but actually contracting -- and at a time when hopes (as embedded in valuations) have never been higher,” Ramsey said. “If the Fed can drawdown QE in the next year without triggering a decline of those levels, it will truly have achieved something remarkable. But we’d rather invest based on the probable.”</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Liquidity Is Evaporating Even Before Fed Taper Hits Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLiquidity Is Evaporating Even Before Fed Taper Hits Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-12 22:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-11/liquidity-is-evaporating-even-before-the-fed-taper-hits-markets><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A measure of U.S. financial liquidity whose declines foreshadowed two of the decade’s worst equity routs is flashing alarms even before the Federal Reserve embarks on its planned winding down of asset...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-11/liquidity-is-evaporating-even-before-the-fed-taper-hits-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-11/liquidity-is-evaporating-even-before-the-fed-taper-hits-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162909242","content_text":"A measure of U.S. financial liquidity whose declines foreshadowed two of the decade’s worst equity routs is flashing alarms even before the Federal Reserve embarks on its planned winding down of asset purchases.\nThe signal is obscure, but has sent meaningful signs in the past. Roughly speaking, it’s the gap between the rates of growth in money supply and gross domestic product, an indicator known to eco-geeks as Marshallian K. It just turned negative for the first time since 2018, meaning GDP is rising faster than the government’s M2 account.\nThe shortfall comes from an expanding economy that’s quickly depleting the nation’s available money. The deficit could become a problem for markets at a time when excess liquidity is seen as underpinning rallies in everything from Bitcoin to meme stocks.\n“Put another way, the recovering economy is now drinking from a punch bowl that the stock market once had all to itself,” Doug Ramsey, Leuthold Group’s chief investment officer, wrote in a note last week.\nHow big a threat is this? While stocks kept rising during frequent negative Marshallian K readings in the 1990s, the pattern since the 2008 global financial crisis -- a period when the central bank was in what Ramsey calls a “perpetual crisis mode” -- begs for caution.\n\nThe Marshallian K fell below zero in 2010, a year when the S&P 500 Index suffered a 16% correction. A similar dip in 2018 portended a selloff that almost killed that bull market.\nThe Leuthold study is the latest attempt to handicap the market’s outlook from the perspective of liquidity. But not everyone is worried. Ed Yardeni, the president and founder of Yardeni Research Inc., says he prefers to plot not the growth rates but the absolute level of M2 against GDP to measure liquidity. Based on that, liquidity stood near a record high.\n“Some people start to freak out about the M2 growth rate,” he said in an interview on Bloomberg TV and Radio. “What they don’t really appreciate is M2 today is $5 trillion higher than it was before the pandemic. There is just a tremendous liquidity sitting there.”\nOthers see limited impact from Fed tapering on the equity market. In June,researchfrom UBS Group AG showed that should the Fed turn off the spigot on its annual $1.4 trillion in quantitative-easing spending, the hit to the S&P 500 would be a paltry 3% decline in prices.\nIn 2013, when the Fed’s announcement on a reduction in stimulus sparked ataper tantrumthat sent 10-year Treasury yields skyward, the S&P 500 pulled back almost 6% from its May peak that year. But stocks staged a full recovery within weeks and went on with a rally that eventually lifted the index 30% for the whole year.\nSkeptics, however, are quick to point out one big difference: equity valuations.\n“Back then, the stock market was trading at 15 times earnings. Now it’s 22 times earnings,” Matt Maley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co., said in an interview on Bloomberg TV with Caroline Hyde. “It will be hard for the market to ignore it this time around.”\n\nFor now, a liquidity drain suggested by the Marshallian K data has done little damage to the market, at least on the index level. The S&P 500 is poised for a seventh straight monthly gain, reaching all-time highs almost every week.\nBut Ramsey warns investors shouldn’t let their guard down. While the broad market has been strong -- the S&P 500 closed Wednesday at a record for the 46th time this year -- fewer stocks are participating in the latest leg up. This could be blamed on falling liquidity, he says, and the days of abundant cash floating all stocks are likely gone.\nThe Marshallian K indicator just slumped intonegative territoryfaster than ever. During the second quarter, M2 money expanded 12.7% from a year ago, trailing the nominal GDP growth rate of 16.7%. That came after four quarters of excessive liquidity where the spread stayed above 20 percentage points.\n“The Marshallian K now shows liquidity not only deteriorating but actually contracting -- and at a time when hopes (as embedded in valuations) have never been higher,” Ramsey said. “If the Fed can drawdown QE in the next year without triggering a decline of those levels, it will truly have achieved something remarkable. But we’d rather invest based on the probable.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}