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JetC
2021-06-02
[微笑]
Want to get in on hot energy stocks? Wall Street favors these 20 picks for gains up to 40%
JetC
2021-06-18
$WISH to the moon! [财迷]
JetC
2021-05-28
[财迷]
Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move
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[财迷] ","listText":"$WISH to the moon! [财迷] ","text":"$WISH to the moon! [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166305936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":113235130,"gmtCreate":1622618179220,"gmtModify":1631889056458,"author":{"id":"3580802619343975","authorId":"3580802619343975","name":"JetC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bee018188e684548384d91cffc9e2e0b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑] ","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113235130","repostId":"1175551284","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175551284","pubTimestamp":1622600822,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175551284?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-02 10:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Want to get in on hot energy stocks? Wall Street favors these 20 picks for gains up to 40%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175551284","media":"Market Wacth","summary":"The energy sector is the best performer of 2021, and it still has a long way to go to make up for ye","content":"<p>The energy sector is the best performer of 2021, and it still has a long way to go to make up for years of big declines.</p>\n<p>The energy sector has been the best performer in the U.S. stock market this year, but it isn’t too late to jump in, as the setup is still attractive for the reopening of the economy.</p>\n<p>On June 1,oil prices rose to a two-year high. And an analysis by GasBuddy showed gasoline demand in the U.S. at close to normal levels,possibly poised to hit record levels this summer.</p>\n<p>Energy recovery has a long way to go</p>\n<p>The S&P 500 energy sectorSP500.10,was up 36% for 2021 through the end of May. (All price changes in this article exclude dividends.) That’s the best sector performance in the benchmark index so far this year.</p>\n<p>Stretching out the timeline paints a different story:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe3e2d34af7be981aeda044a973738b4\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">If we look at price changes from the end of 2019 — before the coronavirus pandemic hurt demand for <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WSTC\">West</a> Texas crude oilCL00,+0.40%so badly that forward-month futures contracts dipped momentarily in the red — the energy sector is the only <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> not showing a significant gain.</p>\n<p>The long-term figures are even worse, underscoring how shares of energy producers haven’t yet returned to their levels before the great oil-price crash that began during the summer of 2014.</p>\n<p>The table includes price changes for the full S&P 500SPX,-0.05%and the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.13%.The Dow was bogged down by holding both <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">Exxon Mobil</a> Corp.XOM,+3.58%and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a> Corp.CVX,+2.76%for most of these periods until Exxon was dropped from the group of 30 blue-chip stocks in August of last year.</p>\n<p>Economic cycle</p>\n<p>There has been a shift to cyclical sectors of the stock market this year, as some investors have become afraid that rising consumer prices may cause the Federal Reserve to reverse its stimulative policies that have helped prop up the U.S. economy, and kept interest rates and borrowing costs down.</p>\n<p>Consumer prices rose 0.8% during April from the previous month and 4.2% from a year earlier. That wasthe largest year-over-year jump in prices in 13 years.</p>\n<p>During an interview last week, Michael Arone, the chief investment strategist for <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street Global Advisors’ U.S. SPDR exchange traded fund business, said investors should keep an eye on the labor market for signals of when the Federal Reserve might begin curtailing its bond purchases and allowing long-term interest rates to wise. He expects our current expansion cycle that favors energy stocks andother cyclical sectorsto continue until early 2023.</p>\n<p>Energy stock screen</p>\n<p>For a list of energy stocks, it helps to expand beyond the S&P 500. The energy sector now comprises only 2.8% of the index’s market capitalization, down from 7.1% five years ago.</p>\n<p>To broaden the list beyond the 23 stocks in the S&P 500, we began with the S&P Composite 1500 IndexSP1500,+0.04%,which is made up of the S&P 500, the S&P 400 Mid Cap IndexMID,+0.63%and the S&P Small Cap 600 IndexSML,+1.57%.That brought the full list of energy-sector stocks up to 62 companies.</p>\n<p>Pipeline partnerships</p>\n<p>We then added another group of energy stocks — master limited partnerships, or MLPs, which are primarily income vehicles. As limited partnerships, these investments pass income (and capital losses) from pipelines, fuel storage and transportation businesses through to unit holders, who receive K-1 forms instead of 1099 dividend forms to report income. That makes tax preparation more complicated. MLPs aren’t included in the S&P indexes.</p>\n<p>One way to invest in this group of energy stocks is the Alerian MLP ETFAMLP,+2.85%,which holds 17 MLPs. The ETF pays a quarterly dividend and removes the tax complications associated with direct ownership of MLPs. Its current dividend yield is 8.84%, reflecting low MLP prices. (Excluding dividends, AMLP’s share price was up 36% for 2021 through May 28. But it was down 15% from the end of 2019, down 21% from five years earlier and down 67% from 10 years earlier.)</p>\n<p>Wall Street’s favorites</p>\n<p>Starting with our full list of 79 energy stocks (the 62 in the S&P Composite 1500 Index and the 17 held by AMLP), here are the 20 that are covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet, with majority “buy” or equivalent ratings, that have the highest upside for the next year implied by consensus price targets:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/336dd7dd3db74a9f471783464de6acc9\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"755\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">You may need to scroll the table to see all the data. The list is sorted by the implied 12-month upside based on consensus price targets. Dividend yields are in the right-most column.</p>\n<p>The listed company with the highest 12-month upside potential implied by the price targets is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REGI\">Renewable</a> Energy Group Inc.REGI,+4.78%,which is aptly named because of its focus on biodiesel production and refining.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a> made the list. The stock’s dividend yield remains attractive at 5.16%, despite a 23% increase for the shares this year through May 28. But Chevron’s arch rival Exxon didn’t make the list, followinglast week’s big victory for activist investorswho gained seats on the company’s board in an effort to push Exxon to change its strategy toward <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> better-suited for a long-term switch away from fossil fuels.</p>\n<p>The second company on the list is Energy Transfer LPET,+3.64%,which has a dividend yield of 6.16% and is expected by analysts to see its partnership unit price increase 34% over the next 12 months. It is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of four MLPs that made the list.</p>\n<p>One pipeline operator that<i>didn’t</i>make the list is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a> Cos.WMB,+2.09%,which was up 32% this year through May 28. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a> is not an MLP — it has a traditional corporate structure. The shares have a dividend yield of 6.23%, and Williams, like Exxon and Chevron, has not cut its payout during the pandemic. Eighty percent of analysts polled by FactSet rate Williams “buy” or the equivalent, but the company didn’t make the list because the consensus price target of $28.83 was only 7% above the closing price of $26.34 on May 28.</p>\n<p>It’s important to keep in mind that even at this stage of the economic recovery, dividend payouts can be reduced. And even though the analysts at brokerage firms favor these stocks, the price targets only go out 12 months, per tradition. That’s actually a short time frame for such a difficult, volatile sector.</p>\n<p>Before committing money to any of these energy companies — or to any investment for that matter — you should do your own research and form your own opinion.</p>\n<p><b>Don’t miss:</b>Amazon and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a> as defensive plays? Yes, along with these other stocks that are cash-flow winners.</p>","source":"lsy1604288433698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Want to get in on hot energy stocks? Wall Street favors these 20 picks for gains up to 40%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWant to get in on hot energy stocks? Wall Street favors these 20 picks for gains up to 40%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-02 10:27 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/want-to-get-in-on-hot-energy-stocks-wall-street-favors-these-20-picks-for-gains-up-to-40-11622565518?mod=home-page><strong>Market Wacth</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The energy sector is the best performer of 2021, and it still has a long way to go to make up for years of big declines.\nThe energy sector has been the best performer in the U.S. stock market this ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/want-to-get-in-on-hot-energy-stocks-wall-street-favors-these-20-picks-for-gains-up-to-40-11622565518?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/want-to-get-in-on-hot-energy-stocks-wall-street-favors-these-20-picks-for-gains-up-to-40-11622565518?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175551284","content_text":"The energy sector is the best performer of 2021, and it still has a long way to go to make up for years of big declines.\nThe energy sector has been the best performer in the U.S. stock market this year, but it isn’t too late to jump in, as the setup is still attractive for the reopening of the economy.\nOn June 1,oil prices rose to a two-year high. And an analysis by GasBuddy showed gasoline demand in the U.S. at close to normal levels,possibly poised to hit record levels this summer.\nEnergy recovery has a long way to go\nThe S&P 500 energy sectorSP500.10,was up 36% for 2021 through the end of May. (All price changes in this article exclude dividends.) That’s the best sector performance in the benchmark index so far this year.\nStretching out the timeline paints a different story:If we look at price changes from the end of 2019 — before the coronavirus pandemic hurt demand for West Texas crude oilCL00,+0.40%so badly that forward-month futures contracts dipped momentarily in the red — the energy sector is the only one not showing a significant gain.\nThe long-term figures are even worse, underscoring how shares of energy producers haven’t yet returned to their levels before the great oil-price crash that began during the summer of 2014.\nThe table includes price changes for the full S&P 500SPX,-0.05%and the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.13%.The Dow was bogged down by holding both Exxon Mobil Corp.XOM,+3.58%and Chevron Corp.CVX,+2.76%for most of these periods until Exxon was dropped from the group of 30 blue-chip stocks in August of last year.\nEconomic cycle\nThere has been a shift to cyclical sectors of the stock market this year, as some investors have become afraid that rising consumer prices may cause the Federal Reserve to reverse its stimulative policies that have helped prop up the U.S. economy, and kept interest rates and borrowing costs down.\nConsumer prices rose 0.8% during April from the previous month and 4.2% from a year earlier. That wasthe largest year-over-year jump in prices in 13 years.\nDuring an interview last week, Michael Arone, the chief investment strategist for State Street Global Advisors’ U.S. SPDR exchange traded fund business, said investors should keep an eye on the labor market for signals of when the Federal Reserve might begin curtailing its bond purchases and allowing long-term interest rates to wise. He expects our current expansion cycle that favors energy stocks andother cyclical sectorsto continue until early 2023.\nEnergy stock screen\nFor a list of energy stocks, it helps to expand beyond the S&P 500. The energy sector now comprises only 2.8% of the index’s market capitalization, down from 7.1% five years ago.\nTo broaden the list beyond the 23 stocks in the S&P 500, we began with the S&P Composite 1500 IndexSP1500,+0.04%,which is made up of the S&P 500, the S&P 400 Mid Cap IndexMID,+0.63%and the S&P Small Cap 600 IndexSML,+1.57%.That brought the full list of energy-sector stocks up to 62 companies.\nPipeline partnerships\nWe then added another group of energy stocks — master limited partnerships, or MLPs, which are primarily income vehicles. As limited partnerships, these investments pass income (and capital losses) from pipelines, fuel storage and transportation businesses through to unit holders, who receive K-1 forms instead of 1099 dividend forms to report income. That makes tax preparation more complicated. MLPs aren’t included in the S&P indexes.\nOne way to invest in this group of energy stocks is the Alerian MLP ETFAMLP,+2.85%,which holds 17 MLPs. The ETF pays a quarterly dividend and removes the tax complications associated with direct ownership of MLPs. Its current dividend yield is 8.84%, reflecting low MLP prices. (Excluding dividends, AMLP’s share price was up 36% for 2021 through May 28. But it was down 15% from the end of 2019, down 21% from five years earlier and down 67% from 10 years earlier.)\nWall Street’s favorites\nStarting with our full list of 79 energy stocks (the 62 in the S&P Composite 1500 Index and the 17 held by AMLP), here are the 20 that are covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet, with majority “buy” or equivalent ratings, that have the highest upside for the next year implied by consensus price targets:\nYou may need to scroll the table to see all the data. The list is sorted by the implied 12-month upside based on consensus price targets. Dividend yields are in the right-most column.\nThe listed company with the highest 12-month upside potential implied by the price targets is Renewable Energy Group Inc.REGI,+4.78%,which is aptly named because of its focus on biodiesel production and refining.\nChevron made the list. The stock’s dividend yield remains attractive at 5.16%, despite a 23% increase for the shares this year through May 28. But Chevron’s arch rival Exxon didn’t make the list, followinglast week’s big victory for activist investorswho gained seats on the company’s board in an effort to push Exxon to change its strategy toward one better-suited for a long-term switch away from fossil fuels.\nThe second company on the list is Energy Transfer LPET,+3.64%,which has a dividend yield of 6.16% and is expected by analysts to see its partnership unit price increase 34% over the next 12 months. It is one of four MLPs that made the list.\nOne pipeline operator thatdidn’tmake the list is Williams Cos.WMB,+2.09%,which was up 32% this year through May 28. Williams is not an MLP — it has a traditional corporate structure. The shares have a dividend yield of 6.23%, and Williams, like Exxon and Chevron, has not cut its payout during the pandemic. Eighty percent of analysts polled by FactSet rate Williams “buy” or the equivalent, but the company didn’t make the list because the consensus price target of $28.83 was only 7% above the closing price of $26.34 on May 28.\nIt’s important to keep in mind that even at this stage of the economic recovery, dividend payouts can be reduced. And even though the analysts at brokerage firms favor these stocks, the price targets only go out 12 months, per tradition. That’s actually a short time frame for such a difficult, volatile sector.\nBefore committing money to any of these energy companies — or to any investment for that matter — you should do your own research and form your own opinion.\nDon’t miss:Amazon and Facebook as defensive plays? Yes, along with these other stocks that are cash-flow winners.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":135423794,"gmtCreate":1622177625818,"gmtModify":1631889056485,"author":{"id":"3580802619343975","authorId":"3580802619343975","name":"JetC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bee018188e684548384d91cffc9e2e0b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷] ","listText":"[财迷] ","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/135423794","repostId":"1181071519","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181071519","pubTimestamp":1622172293,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181071519?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-28 11:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181071519","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-t","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Here’s how to trade the stock market.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.</p>\n<p>Either move is likely to be swift.</p>\n<p>Let’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.</p>\n<p>As noted, the S&PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.</p>\n<p>A breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/063db1fcc3f4bada6dffb863a8efe067\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a8a3cbd81ef0ad5dac523f49f6cf1fa\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"688\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023ccbac0711da78c8a01d78d29a6be4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"688\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p>\n<p>Breadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.</p>\n<p>On a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,<i>c</i>umulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.</p>\n<p>Subscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).</p>\n<p>New 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.</p>\n<p>Volatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.</p>\n<p>Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/743d070c528a592ae7b42c58058c8722\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">In summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.</p>\n<p><b>New recommendation: SPY straddle buy</b></p>\n<p>For now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.</p>\n<p>However, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.</p>\n<p><b>Buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call</b></p>\n<p><b>And buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put</b></p>\n<p>Currently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.</p>\n<p><b>New recommendation: Cerner</b></p>\n<p>Vague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.</p>\n<p><b>Buy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls</b></p>\n<p><b>At a price of 2.00 or less.</b></p>\n<p>CERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6a28e858373b8acdc61ba05fbec2f2b\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"694\"><b>Follow-up action</b></p>\n<p><b><i>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.</i></b></p>\n<p><b>Long 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:</b>Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.</p>\n<p><b>Long 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:</b>This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.</p>\n<p><b>Long 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:</b>This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:</p>\n<p><b>Buy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put</b></p>\n<p><b> And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.</b></p>\n<p>For now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPY<i>trades</i>at the lower strike at any time.</p>\n<p><b>Long 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:</b>Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.</p>\n<p><b>Long 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:</b>This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).</p>\n<p><b>Long 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:</b>Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-28 11:24 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181071519","content_text":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\nIn summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":282,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":113235130,"gmtCreate":1622618179220,"gmtModify":1631889056458,"author":{"id":"3580802619343975","authorId":"3580802619343975","name":"JetC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bee018188e684548384d91cffc9e2e0b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑] ","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113235130","repostId":"1175551284","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175551284","pubTimestamp":1622600822,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175551284?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-02 10:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Want to get in on hot energy stocks? Wall Street favors these 20 picks for gains up to 40%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175551284","media":"Market Wacth","summary":"The energy sector is the best performer of 2021, and it still has a long way to go to make up for ye","content":"<p>The energy sector is the best performer of 2021, and it still has a long way to go to make up for years of big declines.</p>\n<p>The energy sector has been the best performer in the U.S. stock market this year, but it isn’t too late to jump in, as the setup is still attractive for the reopening of the economy.</p>\n<p>On June 1,oil prices rose to a two-year high. And an analysis by GasBuddy showed gasoline demand in the U.S. at close to normal levels,possibly poised to hit record levels this summer.</p>\n<p>Energy recovery has a long way to go</p>\n<p>The S&P 500 energy sectorSP500.10,was up 36% for 2021 through the end of May. (All price changes in this article exclude dividends.) That’s the best sector performance in the benchmark index so far this year.</p>\n<p>Stretching out the timeline paints a different story:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe3e2d34af7be981aeda044a973738b4\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">If we look at price changes from the end of 2019 — before the coronavirus pandemic hurt demand for <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WSTC\">West</a> Texas crude oilCL00,+0.40%so badly that forward-month futures contracts dipped momentarily in the red — the energy sector is the only <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> not showing a significant gain.</p>\n<p>The long-term figures are even worse, underscoring how shares of energy producers haven’t yet returned to their levels before the great oil-price crash that began during the summer of 2014.</p>\n<p>The table includes price changes for the full S&P 500SPX,-0.05%and the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.13%.The Dow was bogged down by holding both <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">Exxon Mobil</a> Corp.XOM,+3.58%and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a> Corp.CVX,+2.76%for most of these periods until Exxon was dropped from the group of 30 blue-chip stocks in August of last year.</p>\n<p>Economic cycle</p>\n<p>There has been a shift to cyclical sectors of the stock market this year, as some investors have become afraid that rising consumer prices may cause the Federal Reserve to reverse its stimulative policies that have helped prop up the U.S. economy, and kept interest rates and borrowing costs down.</p>\n<p>Consumer prices rose 0.8% during April from the previous month and 4.2% from a year earlier. That wasthe largest year-over-year jump in prices in 13 years.</p>\n<p>During an interview last week, Michael Arone, the chief investment strategist for <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street Global Advisors’ U.S. SPDR exchange traded fund business, said investors should keep an eye on the labor market for signals of when the Federal Reserve might begin curtailing its bond purchases and allowing long-term interest rates to wise. He expects our current expansion cycle that favors energy stocks andother cyclical sectorsto continue until early 2023.</p>\n<p>Energy stock screen</p>\n<p>For a list of energy stocks, it helps to expand beyond the S&P 500. The energy sector now comprises only 2.8% of the index’s market capitalization, down from 7.1% five years ago.</p>\n<p>To broaden the list beyond the 23 stocks in the S&P 500, we began with the S&P Composite 1500 IndexSP1500,+0.04%,which is made up of the S&P 500, the S&P 400 Mid Cap IndexMID,+0.63%and the S&P Small Cap 600 IndexSML,+1.57%.That brought the full list of energy-sector stocks up to 62 companies.</p>\n<p>Pipeline partnerships</p>\n<p>We then added another group of energy stocks — master limited partnerships, or MLPs, which are primarily income vehicles. As limited partnerships, these investments pass income (and capital losses) from pipelines, fuel storage and transportation businesses through to unit holders, who receive K-1 forms instead of 1099 dividend forms to report income. That makes tax preparation more complicated. MLPs aren’t included in the S&P indexes.</p>\n<p>One way to invest in this group of energy stocks is the Alerian MLP ETFAMLP,+2.85%,which holds 17 MLPs. The ETF pays a quarterly dividend and removes the tax complications associated with direct ownership of MLPs. Its current dividend yield is 8.84%, reflecting low MLP prices. (Excluding dividends, AMLP’s share price was up 36% for 2021 through May 28. But it was down 15% from the end of 2019, down 21% from five years earlier and down 67% from 10 years earlier.)</p>\n<p>Wall Street’s favorites</p>\n<p>Starting with our full list of 79 energy stocks (the 62 in the S&P Composite 1500 Index and the 17 held by AMLP), here are the 20 that are covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet, with majority “buy” or equivalent ratings, that have the highest upside for the next year implied by consensus price targets:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/336dd7dd3db74a9f471783464de6acc9\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"755\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">You may need to scroll the table to see all the data. The list is sorted by the implied 12-month upside based on consensus price targets. Dividend yields are in the right-most column.</p>\n<p>The listed company with the highest 12-month upside potential implied by the price targets is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REGI\">Renewable</a> Energy Group Inc.REGI,+4.78%,which is aptly named because of its focus on biodiesel production and refining.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a> made the list. The stock’s dividend yield remains attractive at 5.16%, despite a 23% increase for the shares this year through May 28. But Chevron’s arch rival Exxon didn’t make the list, followinglast week’s big victory for activist investorswho gained seats on the company’s board in an effort to push Exxon to change its strategy toward <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> better-suited for a long-term switch away from fossil fuels.</p>\n<p>The second company on the list is Energy Transfer LPET,+3.64%,which has a dividend yield of 6.16% and is expected by analysts to see its partnership unit price increase 34% over the next 12 months. It is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of four MLPs that made the list.</p>\n<p>One pipeline operator that<i>didn’t</i>make the list is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a> Cos.WMB,+2.09%,which was up 32% this year through May 28. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a> is not an MLP — it has a traditional corporate structure. The shares have a dividend yield of 6.23%, and Williams, like Exxon and Chevron, has not cut its payout during the pandemic. Eighty percent of analysts polled by FactSet rate Williams “buy” or the equivalent, but the company didn’t make the list because the consensus price target of $28.83 was only 7% above the closing price of $26.34 on May 28.</p>\n<p>It’s important to keep in mind that even at this stage of the economic recovery, dividend payouts can be reduced. And even though the analysts at brokerage firms favor these stocks, the price targets only go out 12 months, per tradition. That’s actually a short time frame for such a difficult, volatile sector.</p>\n<p>Before committing money to any of these energy companies — or to any investment for that matter — you should do your own research and form your own opinion.</p>\n<p><b>Don’t miss:</b>Amazon and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a> as defensive plays? Yes, along with these other stocks that are cash-flow winners.</p>","source":"lsy1604288433698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Want to get in on hot energy stocks? Wall Street favors these 20 picks for gains up to 40%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWant to get in on hot energy stocks? Wall Street favors these 20 picks for gains up to 40%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-02 10:27 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/want-to-get-in-on-hot-energy-stocks-wall-street-favors-these-20-picks-for-gains-up-to-40-11622565518?mod=home-page><strong>Market Wacth</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The energy sector is the best performer of 2021, and it still has a long way to go to make up for years of big declines.\nThe energy sector has been the best performer in the U.S. stock market this ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/want-to-get-in-on-hot-energy-stocks-wall-street-favors-these-20-picks-for-gains-up-to-40-11622565518?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/want-to-get-in-on-hot-energy-stocks-wall-street-favors-these-20-picks-for-gains-up-to-40-11622565518?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175551284","content_text":"The energy sector is the best performer of 2021, and it still has a long way to go to make up for years of big declines.\nThe energy sector has been the best performer in the U.S. stock market this year, but it isn’t too late to jump in, as the setup is still attractive for the reopening of the economy.\nOn June 1,oil prices rose to a two-year high. And an analysis by GasBuddy showed gasoline demand in the U.S. at close to normal levels,possibly poised to hit record levels this summer.\nEnergy recovery has a long way to go\nThe S&P 500 energy sectorSP500.10,was up 36% for 2021 through the end of May. (All price changes in this article exclude dividends.) That’s the best sector performance in the benchmark index so far this year.\nStretching out the timeline paints a different story:If we look at price changes from the end of 2019 — before the coronavirus pandemic hurt demand for West Texas crude oilCL00,+0.40%so badly that forward-month futures contracts dipped momentarily in the red — the energy sector is the only one not showing a significant gain.\nThe long-term figures are even worse, underscoring how shares of energy producers haven’t yet returned to their levels before the great oil-price crash that began during the summer of 2014.\nThe table includes price changes for the full S&P 500SPX,-0.05%and the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.13%.The Dow was bogged down by holding both Exxon Mobil Corp.XOM,+3.58%and Chevron Corp.CVX,+2.76%for most of these periods until Exxon was dropped from the group of 30 blue-chip stocks in August of last year.\nEconomic cycle\nThere has been a shift to cyclical sectors of the stock market this year, as some investors have become afraid that rising consumer prices may cause the Federal Reserve to reverse its stimulative policies that have helped prop up the U.S. economy, and kept interest rates and borrowing costs down.\nConsumer prices rose 0.8% during April from the previous month and 4.2% from a year earlier. That wasthe largest year-over-year jump in prices in 13 years.\nDuring an interview last week, Michael Arone, the chief investment strategist for State Street Global Advisors’ U.S. SPDR exchange traded fund business, said investors should keep an eye on the labor market for signals of when the Federal Reserve might begin curtailing its bond purchases and allowing long-term interest rates to wise. He expects our current expansion cycle that favors energy stocks andother cyclical sectorsto continue until early 2023.\nEnergy stock screen\nFor a list of energy stocks, it helps to expand beyond the S&P 500. The energy sector now comprises only 2.8% of the index’s market capitalization, down from 7.1% five years ago.\nTo broaden the list beyond the 23 stocks in the S&P 500, we began with the S&P Composite 1500 IndexSP1500,+0.04%,which is made up of the S&P 500, the S&P 400 Mid Cap IndexMID,+0.63%and the S&P Small Cap 600 IndexSML,+1.57%.That brought the full list of energy-sector stocks up to 62 companies.\nPipeline partnerships\nWe then added another group of energy stocks — master limited partnerships, or MLPs, which are primarily income vehicles. As limited partnerships, these investments pass income (and capital losses) from pipelines, fuel storage and transportation businesses through to unit holders, who receive K-1 forms instead of 1099 dividend forms to report income. That makes tax preparation more complicated. MLPs aren’t included in the S&P indexes.\nOne way to invest in this group of energy stocks is the Alerian MLP ETFAMLP,+2.85%,which holds 17 MLPs. The ETF pays a quarterly dividend and removes the tax complications associated with direct ownership of MLPs. Its current dividend yield is 8.84%, reflecting low MLP prices. (Excluding dividends, AMLP’s share price was up 36% for 2021 through May 28. But it was down 15% from the end of 2019, down 21% from five years earlier and down 67% from 10 years earlier.)\nWall Street’s favorites\nStarting with our full list of 79 energy stocks (the 62 in the S&P Composite 1500 Index and the 17 held by AMLP), here are the 20 that are covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet, with majority “buy” or equivalent ratings, that have the highest upside for the next year implied by consensus price targets:\nYou may need to scroll the table to see all the data. The list is sorted by the implied 12-month upside based on consensus price targets. Dividend yields are in the right-most column.\nThe listed company with the highest 12-month upside potential implied by the price targets is Renewable Energy Group Inc.REGI,+4.78%,which is aptly named because of its focus on biodiesel production and refining.\nChevron made the list. The stock’s dividend yield remains attractive at 5.16%, despite a 23% increase for the shares this year through May 28. But Chevron’s arch rival Exxon didn’t make the list, followinglast week’s big victory for activist investorswho gained seats on the company’s board in an effort to push Exxon to change its strategy toward one better-suited for a long-term switch away from fossil fuels.\nThe second company on the list is Energy Transfer LPET,+3.64%,which has a dividend yield of 6.16% and is expected by analysts to see its partnership unit price increase 34% over the next 12 months. It is one of four MLPs that made the list.\nOne pipeline operator thatdidn’tmake the list is Williams Cos.WMB,+2.09%,which was up 32% this year through May 28. Williams is not an MLP — it has a traditional corporate structure. The shares have a dividend yield of 6.23%, and Williams, like Exxon and Chevron, has not cut its payout during the pandemic. Eighty percent of analysts polled by FactSet rate Williams “buy” or the equivalent, but the company didn’t make the list because the consensus price target of $28.83 was only 7% above the closing price of $26.34 on May 28.\nIt’s important to keep in mind that even at this stage of the economic recovery, dividend payouts can be reduced. And even though the analysts at brokerage firms favor these stocks, the price targets only go out 12 months, per tradition. That’s actually a short time frame for such a difficult, volatile sector.\nBefore committing money to any of these energy companies — or to any investment for that matter — you should do your own research and form your own opinion.\nDon’t miss:Amazon and Facebook as defensive plays? Yes, along with these other stocks that are cash-flow winners.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":166305936,"gmtCreate":1623990358025,"gmtModify":1631889056430,"author":{"id":"3580802619343975","authorId":"3580802619343975","name":"JetC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bee018188e684548384d91cffc9e2e0b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$WISH to the moon! [财迷] ","listText":"$WISH to the moon! [财迷] ","text":"$WISH to the moon! [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166305936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":135423794,"gmtCreate":1622177625818,"gmtModify":1631889056485,"author":{"id":"3580802619343975","authorId":"3580802619343975","name":"JetC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bee018188e684548384d91cffc9e2e0b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷] ","listText":"[财迷] ","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/135423794","repostId":"1181071519","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181071519","pubTimestamp":1622172293,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181071519?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-28 11:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181071519","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-t","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Here’s how to trade the stock market.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.</p>\n<p>Either move is likely to be swift.</p>\n<p>Let’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.</p>\n<p>As noted, the S&PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.</p>\n<p>A breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/063db1fcc3f4bada6dffb863a8efe067\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a8a3cbd81ef0ad5dac523f49f6cf1fa\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"688\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023ccbac0711da78c8a01d78d29a6be4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"688\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p>\n<p>Breadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.</p>\n<p>On a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,<i>c</i>umulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.</p>\n<p>Subscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).</p>\n<p>New 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.</p>\n<p>Volatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.</p>\n<p>Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/743d070c528a592ae7b42c58058c8722\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">In summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.</p>\n<p><b>New recommendation: SPY straddle buy</b></p>\n<p>For now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.</p>\n<p>However, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.</p>\n<p><b>Buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call</b></p>\n<p><b>And buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put</b></p>\n<p>Currently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.</p>\n<p><b>New recommendation: Cerner</b></p>\n<p>Vague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.</p>\n<p><b>Buy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls</b></p>\n<p><b>At a price of 2.00 or less.</b></p>\n<p>CERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6a28e858373b8acdc61ba05fbec2f2b\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"694\"><b>Follow-up action</b></p>\n<p><b><i>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.</i></b></p>\n<p><b>Long 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:</b>Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.</p>\n<p><b>Long 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:</b>This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.</p>\n<p><b>Long 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:</b>This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:</p>\n<p><b>Buy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put</b></p>\n<p><b> And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.</b></p>\n<p>For now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPY<i>trades</i>at the lower strike at any time.</p>\n<p><b>Long 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:</b>Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.</p>\n<p><b>Long 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:</b>This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).</p>\n<p><b>Long 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:</b>Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-28 11:24 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181071519","content_text":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\nIn summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":282,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
