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斑点虎123

斑点虎123

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0勋章

2021-08-13

$淡水河谷(VALE)$老虎的量化似乎比较适合分批建仓[摊手]

2021-07-28

说得好，我清仓了

盘前异动：中概股止跌！是反转还是诱多？

2021-07-08

$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$垃圾东西，再做多吃屎

2021-06-21

$爱回收(RERE)$坐等5块入场

2021-06-12

$BOSS直聘(BZ)$芜湖起飞，跑路睡觉，满意了～

2021-06-04

全仓了，坐等上涨$苹果(AAPL)$$微软(MSFT)$$Roku Inc(ROKU)$

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17:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"盘前异动：中概股止跌！是反转还是诱多？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144159174","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月28日，美股股指期货涨跌互现，道指期货跌0.03%，标普500指数涨0.18%，纳指期货涨0.28%。\n\n部分热门中概股盘前止跌回升，理想汽车、拼多多、滴滴涨超6%，贝壳涨超5%，小鹏汽车、蔚来、","content":"<p>7月28日，美股股指期货涨跌互现，道指期货跌0.03%，标普500指数涨0.18%，纳指期货涨0.28%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0595f69d8fd347a67caca1a48c6d34ad\" tg-width=\"376\" tg-height=\"184\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>部分热门中概股盘前止跌回升，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>涨超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>涨超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>涨超4%。</p>\n<p>中概教育股涨跌不一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">高途</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>涨超4%，<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIO\">力拓</a>盘前涨超2%，上半年盈利翻倍，股息超去年全年。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>盘前涨近1%，第二季度同比扭亏为盈，并宣布取消成本目标。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">巴克莱银行</a>盘前涨超4%，公司将回购最多5亿英镑股份。</p>\n<p>Teladoc&nbsp;Health盘前跌近8%，第二季度净亏损状况扩大。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCM\">和黄医药</a>盘前涨超11%，公司与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZN\">阿斯利康</a>共同合作的沃瑞沙的II期临床试验首名患者已于7月27日接受给药治疗。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前异动：中概股止跌！是反转还是诱多？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n盘前异动：中概股止跌！是反转还是诱多？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-28 17:25</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>7月28日，美股股指期货涨跌互现，道指期货跌0.03%，标普500指数涨0.18%，纳指期货涨0.28%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0595f69d8fd347a67caca1a48c6d34ad\" tg-width=\"376\" tg-height=\"184\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>部分热门中概股盘前止跌回升，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>涨超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>涨超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>涨超4%。</p>\n<p>中概教育股涨跌不一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">高途</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>涨超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>跌一度跌超4%。</p>\n<p>美股区块链板块盘前普涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BTBT\">Bit Digital</a>涨超21%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCTY\">第九城市</a>涨近10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBON\">亿邦国际</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">嘉楠科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Patent</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain</a>涨超6%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌A</a>盘前涨超4%，开盘股价势再创新高。第二季度净利润超180亿美元，大增166%。此外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>将<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>目标价从2600美元上调至3190美元。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>盘前跌超1%，未提供财年指引，称之后季度营收将放缓。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>盘前涨近1%，第二季度营收创历史新高，净利润同比增长近50%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>盘前涨超1%，第二季度营收38.5亿美元，净利润7亿美元，比大涨352%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">星巴克</a>盘前跌超2%，公司下调了对中国同店销售增长的全年预测。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIO\">力拓</a>盘前涨超2%，上半年盈利翻倍，股息超去年全年。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>盘前涨近1%，第二季度同比扭亏为盈，并宣布取消成本目标。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">巴克莱银行</a>盘前涨超4%，公司将回购最多5亿英镑股份。</p>\n<p>Teladoc&nbsp;Health盘前跌近8%，第二季度净亏损状况扩大。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCM\">和黄医药</a>盘前涨超11%，公司与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZN\">阿斯利康</a>共同合作的沃瑞沙的II期临床试验首名患者已于7月27日接受给药治疗。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","AAPL":"苹果","BABA":"阿里巴巴","MSFT":"微软","GOOGL":"谷歌A","PDD":"拼多多","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数",".DJI":"道琼斯","AMD":"美国超微公司","NIO":"蔚来","LI":"理想汽车","XPEV":"小鹏汽车",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SBUX":"星巴克",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144159174","content_text":"7月28日，美股股指期货涨跌互现，道指期货跌0.03%，标普500指数涨0.18%，纳指期货涨0.28%。\n\n部分热门中概股盘前止跌回升，理想汽车、拼多多、滴滴涨超6%，贝壳涨超5%，小鹏汽车、蔚来、哔哩哔哩涨超4%。\n中概教育股涨跌不一，高途、好未来涨超4%，新东方跌一度跌超4%。\n美股区块链板块盘前普涨，Bit Digital涨超21%，第九城市涨近10%，亿邦国际、嘉楠科技、Marathon Patent、Riot Blockchain涨超6%。\n谷歌A盘前涨超4%，开盘股价势再创新高。第二季度净利润超180亿美元，大增166%。此外，瑞银将谷歌目标价从2600美元上调至3190美元。\n苹果盘前跌超1%，未提供财年指引，称之后季度营收将放缓。\n微软盘前涨近1%，第二季度营收创历史新高，净利润同比增长近50%。\nAMD盘前涨超1%，第二季度营收38.5亿美元，净利润7亿美元，比大涨352%。\n星巴克盘前跌超2%，公司下调了对中国同店销售增长的全年预测。\n力拓盘前涨超2%，上半年盈利翻倍，股息超去年全年。\n德意志银行盘前涨近1%，第二季度同比扭亏为盈，并宣布取消成本目标。\n巴克莱银行盘前涨超4%，公司将回购最多5亿英镑股份。\nTeladoc Health盘前跌近8%，第二季度净亏损状况扩大。\n和黄医药盘前涨超11%，公司与阿斯利康共同合作的沃瑞沙的II期临床试验首名患者已于7月27日接受给药治疗。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1357,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":143064645,"gmtCreate":1625752984887,"gmtModify":1625754103321,"author":{"id":"3580627181850998","authorId":"3580627181850998","name":"斑点虎123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31ab27410cf57e97f9328fdddbb2ec9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580627181850998","authorIdStr":"3580627181850998"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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优选给出买入信号?我不看好。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":116414525,"gmtCreate":1622815296667,"gmtModify":1622815296667,"author":{"id":"3580627181850998","authorId":"3580627181850998","name":"斑点虎123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31ab27410cf57e97f9328fdddbb2ec9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580627181850998","authorIdStr":"3580627181850998"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"全仓了，坐等上涨<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ROKU\">$Roku Inc(ROKU)$</a>","listText":"全仓了，坐等上涨<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ROKU\">$Roku Inc(ROKU)$</a>","text":"全仓了，坐等上涨$苹果(AAPL)$$微软(MSFT)$$Roku Inc(ROKU)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116414525","repostId":"1172584244","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172584244","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622814507,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172584244?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 21:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"非农数据不及预期，美股是不是又能大涨一波了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172584244","media":"格隆汇","summary":"流动性收紧的拐点并不远。","content":"<p>6月4日晚间，美联储公布了备受关注的就业数据。</p>\n<p>数据显示，<b>美国5月非农就业人数增加55.9万，预估为增加67.4万，前值为增加26.6万；5月失业率为5.8%，创去年3月以来新低，预估为5.9%，前值为6.1%</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef60174471f6fb8c05c07ca862ef9b30\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>受此消息刺激，美股三大指数今日集体高开，纳指涨幅居前，开盘后一路走高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b446e2b2cf893f29011047fd94371c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<p>5月就业数据不及预期，让市场倍感意外的同时，极大地缓了一口气，投资者担忧的美联储缩减计划又可以往后延一延了。</p>\n<p><b>1、经济超预期复苏，失业率大幅改善</b></p>\n<p>过去几个月间，鲍威尔、耶伦多次放风和美股的来回试探，都说明了一个问题：<b>当下市场在交易的是美联储收紧流动性窗口期的远近</b>。</p>\n<p>而美联储的态度也已经明牌，始终将其政策框架锚定在两个点——<b>经济复苏、就业</b>。在这两个数据没回到疫情前水平之前，宽松的货币环境突然收窄的可能性极小。</p>\n<p>所以表现出来的情况就很有意思，<b>经济就业数据出来之前，市场先跌为敬</b>，投资者都怕意外发生，继而演变成一场“囚徒”之间的博弈，因此提前规避风险。如果出炉的数据很好看，美股继续往下跌，一旦不及预期，资金又会急急忙忙吃回头草。</p>\n<p>6月2日公布的美联储褐皮书显示，<b>过去两个月美国经济温和扩张，增速环比小幅增长</b>。三分之二的地区在报告期内就业数量和工资增长温和，其中食品服务、酒店和零售业的就业增长最为强劲。</p>\n<p>昨晚公布的就业数据证实了这一说法，“小非农”ADP就业人数新增97.8万人，大超市场预期，创去年6月以来的近一年最快增幅；64点的ISM服务业指数也略超预期，并且刷新1997年以来的纪录。</p>\n<p>同时，上周美国首次申请失业救济的人数降至38.5万，低于一些经济学家预期的39.3万，也低于此前一周的前值40.6万人。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a967880cffaee2dadeff49b76902207a\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>非农就业数据虽然爆冷，但整体上较上期好了不少，并且失业率方面略好于预期。</p>\n<p>根据美国CDC的数据，当前全美接种至少一剂疫苗的人数为1.69亿，18岁~65岁的劳动力人口中63%完成接种。随着疫苗的快速铺开，各地区的封锁逐渐放开，比如纽约市长日前就宣布将于7月1日全面开放纽约市，这些措施将带动经济的进一步复苏。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd353210d2de27e53197b6f8ca4e45bd\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>多数美联储委员的乐观预期是，伴随全美学校于秋季全面恢复课堂教学，各州政府在疫情期间的额外失业补助于9月前陆续到期，<b>夏季的美国就业市场将迎来显著提振</b>。</p>\n<p>参考疫情前数据，若要失业率和劳动参与率都回到正常水平的话，还有超过800万的就业缺口，<b>按照目前的修复速度，大概还需要10个月的时间</b>。</p>\n<p>在此之前，难言加息。</p>\n<p><b>2、通胀加剧，流动性拐点什么时候来？</b></p>\n<p>Sell in May的5月魔咒没有在美股上演，但美股依然跑输其他主要市场，不说最近暴涨的越南股市，标普500甚至大幅跑输上证指数。<b>对投资者来说，通胀和货币政策变化的担忧依然是悬在头上的“两朵乌云”</b>。</p>\n<p>4月份美国的CPI数据大超预期，4.2%的增长公布的时候吓坏了一大批人，股市应声大跌，美股三大指数均跌2~3个点。</p>\n<p>美联储褐皮书指出，5月来其国内的总体价格压力进一步增加。销售价格温和上涨，投入成本上涨较快，而印度、越南等制造业国家的疫情反扑导致供应链中断，进一步加剧了成本压力。此外，4月份的PPI数据同比增长6.2%，工业端的压力预计将逐步传导至消费端。</p>\n<p>不过，随着1.9万亿美元财政刺激后的消费从高峰回落，供需缺口有望缩窄，对通胀的压力也有所缓解。需求侧继续释放，5月份美国的订单积压指数从55.7升至61.1，但增速环比放慢；供给侧正在修复，库存指数则从49.1回升到水平线上的51.5。</p>\n<p>总的来说，<b>通胀的压力仍将存在，短期内看不到明显好转的迹象</b>。</p>\n<p>我们知道，造成通胀恶化的根本原因是美元流动性的泛滥，拜登的疫情纾困法案和基建计划更是雪上加霜。</p>\n<p>近期美联的逆回购交易量暴涨，<b>5月27日的4850亿美元创下历史记录，周四的资金规模为至4790亿美元，仍然处在相当高的水平</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b05453e91a77eb3931efa7fa52a0ad3\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这个事需要结合市场利率来看，因为流动性泛滥的原因，联邦基金利率在过去几个月来持续下降至最低0.05%，众多金融机构担心出现负利率的情况，因此<b>通过和美联储的隔夜逆回购锁定利率下限，而对美联储来说相当于回收了一部分流动性</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e742223fa8e78f7cba445cb08d1d986\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>基本可以断定，在通胀压力和经济复苏超预期的背景下，收紧流动性大概率会提前。</p>\n<p>现在美联储已经有些“小动作了”。日前，美联储宣布准备出脱购买的部分资产——在去年疫情最严重时期为了稳定信贷市场而买入的公司债。就在昨天，纽约联储表示将于6月7日开始逐步出售二级市场企业信贷便利（SMCCF）工具中的企业债，将从出售ETF开始。</p>\n<p><b>流动性收紧的拐点，不远了。</b></p>\n<p><b>3、结语</b></p>\n<p>持续震荡中的美股，说明市场的预期正在寻找共识，而6月很有可能成为决定未来一段时间内政策和市场走向的关键岔路口——<b>6月10日公布CPI数据，紧接着6月15~16日召开FOMC会议，届时将会对缩减购债规模做讨论。</b></p>\n<p>预测走向从来都不怎么靠谱，尤其是在拐点处以及疫情导致非线性变化的事件中，包括众多经济学家在内的专家预期往往出现较大的偏差，但我们可以分析各种可能情况下的影响：</p>\n<p>非农数据不及预期，已经给市场缓了口气。<b>如果通胀也有所缓解，购债计划将继续后延，那么市场会迎来新一轮喘息窗口；反之，如果通胀意外大超预期，迫使美联储不得不采取行动的话，市场则将迎来新一轮恐慌，毕竟现在就提示减量是明显早于预期的。</b></p>\n<p>总而言之，加息的大方向要看经济就业的修复进度，拐点在缩减购债的决议上，市场经过5月非农数据的预期修正，会相对乐观许多。但通胀压力下不排除美联储做一些技术性微调，比如上调隔夜逆回购利率和超额准备金利率。</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>非农数据不及预期，美股是不是又能大涨一波了？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n非农数据不及预期，美股是不是又能大涨一波了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-04 21:48 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/468913><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>6月4日晚间，美联储公布了备受关注的就业数据。\n数据显示，美国5月非农就业人数增加55.9万，预估为增加67.4万，前值为增加26.6万；5月失业率为5.8%，创去年3月以来新低，预估为5.9%，前值为6.1%。\n\n受此消息刺激，美股三大指数今日集体高开，纳指涨幅居前，开盘后一路走高。\n\n5月就业数据不及预期，让市场倍感意外的同时，极大地缓了一口气，投资者担忧的美联储缩减计划又可以往后延一延了。\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/468913\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/468913","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1172584244","content_text":"6月4日晚间，美联储公布了备受关注的就业数据。\n数据显示，美国5月非农就业人数增加55.9万，预估为增加67.4万，前值为增加26.6万；5月失业率为5.8%，创去年3月以来新低，预估为5.9%，前值为6.1%。\n\n受此消息刺激，美股三大指数今日集体高开，纳指涨幅居前，开盘后一路走高。\n\n5月就业数据不及预期，让市场倍感意外的同时，极大地缓了一口气，投资者担忧的美联储缩减计划又可以往后延一延了。\n1、经济超预期复苏，失业率大幅改善\n过去几个月间，鲍威尔、耶伦多次放风和美股的来回试探，都说明了一个问题：当下市场在交易的是美联储收紧流动性窗口期的远近。\n而美联储的态度也已经明牌，始终将其政策框架锚定在两个点——经济复苏、就业。在这两个数据没回到疫情前水平之前，宽松的货币环境突然收窄的可能性极小。\n所以表现出来的情况就很有意思，经济就业数据出来之前，市场先跌为敬，投资者都怕意外发生，继而演变成一场“囚徒”之间的博弈，因此提前规避风险。如果出炉的数据很好看，美股继续往下跌，一旦不及预期，资金又会急急忙忙吃回头草。\n6月2日公布的美联储褐皮书显示，过去两个月美国经济温和扩张，增速环比小幅增长。三分之二的地区在报告期内就业数量和工资增长温和，其中食品服务、酒店和零售业的就业增长最为强劲。\n昨晚公布的就业数据证实了这一说法，“小非农”ADP就业人数新增97.8万人，大超市场预期，创去年6月以来的近一年最快增幅；64点的ISM服务业指数也略超预期，并且刷新1997年以来的纪录。\n同时，上周美国首次申请失业救济的人数降至38.5万，低于一些经济学家预期的39.3万，也低于此前一周的前值40.6万人。\n\n非农就业数据虽然爆冷，但整体上较上期好了不少，并且失业率方面略好于预期。\n根据美国CDC的数据，当前全美接种至少一剂疫苗的人数为1.69亿，18岁~65岁的劳动力人口中63%完成接种。随着疫苗的快速铺开，各地区的封锁逐渐放开，比如纽约市长日前就宣布将于7月1日全面开放纽约市，这些措施将带动经济的进一步复苏。\n\n多数美联储委员的乐观预期是，伴随全美学校于秋季全面恢复课堂教学，各州政府在疫情期间的额外失业补助于9月前陆续到期，夏季的美国就业市场将迎来显著提振。\n参考疫情前数据，若要失业率和劳动参与率都回到正常水平的话，还有超过800万的就业缺口，按照目前的修复速度，大概还需要10个月的时间。\n在此之前，难言加息。\n2、通胀加剧，流动性拐点什么时候来？\nSell in May的5月魔咒没有在美股上演，但美股依然跑输其他主要市场，不说最近暴涨的越南股市，标普500甚至大幅跑输上证指数。对投资者来说，通胀和货币政策变化的担忧依然是悬在头上的“两朵乌云”。\n4月份美国的CPI数据大超预期，4.2%的增长公布的时候吓坏了一大批人，股市应声大跌，美股三大指数均跌2~3个点。\n美联储褐皮书指出，5月来其国内的总体价格压力进一步增加。销售价格温和上涨，投入成本上涨较快，而印度、越南等制造业国家的疫情反扑导致供应链中断，进一步加剧了成本压力。此外，4月份的PPI数据同比增长6.2%，工业端的压力预计将逐步传导至消费端。\n不过，随着1.9万亿美元财政刺激后的消费从高峰回落，供需缺口有望缩窄，对通胀的压力也有所缓解。需求侧继续释放，5月份美国的订单积压指数从55.7升至61.1，但增速环比放慢；供给侧正在修复，库存指数则从49.1回升到水平线上的51.5。\n总的来说，通胀的压力仍将存在，短期内看不到明显好转的迹象。\n我们知道，造成通胀恶化的根本原因是美元流动性的泛滥，拜登的疫情纾困法案和基建计划更是雪上加霜。\n近期美联的逆回购交易量暴涨，5月27日的4850亿美元创下历史记录，周四的资金规模为至4790亿美元，仍然处在相当高的水平。\n\n这个事需要结合市场利率来看，因为流动性泛滥的原因，联邦基金利率在过去几个月来持续下降至最低0.05%，众多金融机构担心出现负利率的情况，因此通过和美联储的隔夜逆回购锁定利率下限，而对美联储来说相当于回收了一部分流动性。\n\n基本可以断定，在通胀压力和经济复苏超预期的背景下，收紧流动性大概率会提前。\n现在美联储已经有些“小动作了”。日前，美联储宣布准备出脱购买的部分资产——在去年疫情最严重时期为了稳定信贷市场而买入的公司债。就在昨天，纽约联储表示将于6月7日开始逐步出售二级市场企业信贷便利（SMCCF）工具中的企业债，将从出售ETF开始。\n流动性收紧的拐点，不远了。\n3、结语\n持续震荡中的美股，说明市场的预期正在寻找共识，而6月很有可能成为决定未来一段时间内政策和市场走向的关键岔路口——6月10日公布CPI数据，紧接着6月15~16日召开FOMC会议，届时将会对缩减购债规模做讨论。\n预测走向从来都不怎么靠谱，尤其是在拐点处以及疫情导致非线性变化的事件中，包括众多经济学家在内的专家预期往往出现较大的偏差，但我们可以分析各种可能情况下的影响：\n非农数据不及预期，已经给市场缓了口气。如果通胀也有所缓解，购债计划将继续后延，那么市场会迎来新一轮喘息窗口；反之，如果通胀意外大超预期，迫使美联储不得不采取行动的话，市场则将迎来新一轮恐慌，毕竟现在就提示减量是明显早于预期的。\n总而言之，加息的大方向要看经济就业的修复进度，拐点在缩减购债的决议上，市场经过5月非农数据的预期修正，会相对乐观许多。但通胀压力下不排除美联储做一些技术性微调，比如上调隔夜逆回购利率和超额准备金利率。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3522846711766919","authorId":"3522846711766919","name":"Decebt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cccc0979fdc0c759b3965229e60f67ea","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3522846711766919","authorIdStr":"3522846711766919"},"content":"这时候买微软的等于股价 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