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Jiemisi
2021-04-07
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Tesla: The Time Is Now
Jiemisi
2021-04-05
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Jiemisi
2021-04-04
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Jiemisi
2021-04-04
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How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?
Jiemisi
2021-04-04
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Growth stocks have been absolutely destroyed in the past couple of months, and in the process, some bargains have been created. Not all growth stocks are created equal, and there were undoubtedly some frothy rallies that took place into the early part of 2021, but opportunities abound if you – like me – think that the rapid eco","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>TSLA has been decimated in recent weeks.</li>\n <li>However, there is cause for optimism for the bulls.</li>\n <li>I'll explain a number of reasons why Tesla is a strong buy.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34d035a970508c4a7d59d7c16d728cb5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1000\"><span>Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Growth stocks have been absolutely destroyed in the past couple of months, and in the process, some bargains have been created. Not all growth stocks are created equal, and there were undoubtedly some frothy rallies that took place into the early part of 2021, but opportunities abound if you – like me – think that the rapid economic expansion out of the COVID recession will serve these growth stocks well.</p>\n<p>One name that I haven’t touched much in the past, but that I believe is on the cusp of a big move higher, is electric vehicle OG <b>Tesla</b>(TSLA). Below, I’ll discuss why I like Tesla’s fundamentals at the current price, but the timing of my bullish position is dictated by what we see below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f72f46ef39a132b1d301fa60da71f7ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"633\"><span>Source: StockCharts</span></p>\n<p>I’ve circled the areas that are ~4 weeks out from an upcoming earnings report to show how reliable Tesla has been in advancing – in a big way – into earnings reports. We are just under four weeks away from Tesla’s late-April report, and if history is a guide, the stock is likely to be a lot higher by the time the company reports than it is today. Given the immense weakness we’ve seen in the stock, I think the odds are even higher this time that the stock makes a run into the report than it usually is.</p>\n<p>Not only has Tesla been a big winner trading into earnings releases, but there are signs that the selling is losing momentum. The relative bottom at $539 was met with new momentum lows in the RSI and PPO, but the current move down has seen momentum much higher on a relative basis. That doesn’t guarantee anything, but it does show that the worst of the selling is<i>probably</i>over. I’ve circled the divergences I’m referencing in the chart above, as these are the earliest signs of a bottom being formed.</p>\n<p>Those that read my work know that I trust the accumulation/distribution line, which has never wavered despite the relentless selling we’ve seen. This indicator shows whether investors are buying dips or not and for the A/D line to look like that, on a stock with a massive market capitalization, institutions must be buying. Like the momentum indicators, nothing is certain with the A/D line, but all of this adds up to a stock that looks to me like it is trying to bottom.</p>\n<p>But there’s one more piece of evidence I’d like to offer up that I believe shows Tesla is very oversold and is due for a rally. Below, I’ve plotted the total percentage returns over the prior 50-day period going back to the middle of 2018 to show just how ugly the recent selling has been.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41235a82786f7c031ead1bbf3aa15c90\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source: Author’s chart using historical price data from Yahoo! Finance</span></p>\n<p>Tesla is currently showing 50-day returns of -25%, which has only occurred a handful of times in the past three years. We can see that there was one period of protracted weakness in early 2019 that eventually resolved itself to the upside but did take some time. That was before EV stocks got their massive bid from investors, and I think it is pretty easy to argue that time frame isn’t all that comparable to today.</p>\n<p>What is comparable to today is the time period since 2020 began, and if we look at that, we see that Tesla is more oversold today by this measure than during any of the other drawdowns. I’ll say again none of this guarantees anything, but it certainly looks to me like Tesla is quite oversold on this measure, and keep in mind 50 trading days is roughly two and half months, so this is a longer-term indicator with lots of data points.</p>\n<p>Now, when I put all of this together – the recent decline, the divergences in momentum, the fact that Tesla has been a huge winner into earnings releases, and 50-day rolling returns – all signs point to a much higher stock a month or two down the road.</p>\n<p>Obviously, risks exist. The narrative for growth stocks being crushed has been higher interest rates, and if rates continue higher, it is possible we see more selling in growth names. However, the damage has been pretty severe in a lot of cases, and the interest rate narrative is a couple of months old at this point, so I’m not sure how much more downside there could be relative to what has already taken place.</p>\n<p>Even if you do buy into the idea that higher rates are responsible for growth stocks coming down, it appears to me we have rally exhaustion going on in rates, opposite to what I just explained for Tesla.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8431dcf8a7afbe72249144c017e28ced\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"536\"><span>Source: StockCharts</span></p>\n<p>We can see with this two-year chart that rates are still well below where they were pre-pandemic, with room for another 20 or 30bps before getting back to early-2020 levels. I mention this to say it isn’t like we’re making new highs in rates that should see growth stocks be decimated; this is just a rebound.</p>\n<p>But more importantly, the vertical line I’ve annotated shows that the ten-year has climbed for about a month, making new relative highs repeatedly without any sort of momentum confirmation. The PPO is moving lower, and the 14-day RSI is doing the same thing. This doesn’t guarantee rates are coming down, but it does certainly show the rally is losing steam. Negative divergences like these often portend a change of trend, at least temporarily, and I firmly believe rates have moved too high, too quickly. If you believe rates are responsible for growth stock declines, this should look pretty bullish to you.</p>\n<p><b>Not just a trade</b></p>\n<p>I’ve detailed above why I think Tesla is set up very well right now technically, and I think the stock is on the cusp of a big move higher. However, Tesla isn’t just a trade candidate. I used to be a Tesla hater based on valuation this and valuation that, but the company has proven me wrong time and again. And it isn’t just me; have a look at this chart of revenue estimates, which move up, up, and up some more over time.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8499c62835d88fca8a6c22c7cb8aeae8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>Revenue estimates have soared for the out years, but also for 2021 and 2022, in recent months. Tesla (read: Musk) has put out some highly ambitious goals over the year, some of which have come to fruition, and some of which haven’t. But this company is a massive disruptor in an industry with literally trillions of dollars on the line in the coming decade and has a huge head start on legacy players that are now trying to play catch up.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/414e539154fdd2ed51e8f5518cc1dee4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"663\"><span>Source: Investor presentation</span></p>\n<p>The company continues to invest billions of dollars in new production capacity for its products, including Gigafactories in Shanghai, Berlin, and Austin. The Roadster will be low volume and likely won’t make much difference for revenue or earnings, but things like the Cybertruck and Semi have enormous potential.</p>\n<p>Tesla has taken big market share gains over the years with a very small lineup of vehicles, and as batteries become cheaper, as ranges get longer, and as more and more localities ban gasoline and diesel vehicles, Tesla is easily the biggest winner. Legacy manufacturers have scale advantages in terms of financing and footprints in place, but they are many years behind Tesla in terms of development.</p>\n<p>The beautiful thing is that Tesla is taking market share, but the market itself is growing rapidly. The adoption of EVs among consumers is still in the very early stages, and for commercial fleets, it is even earlier. This sort of rapidly expanding market is good for all players, but for Tesla, it is taking share in a burgeoning market, creating a virtuous cycle of upward revenue potential. That’s why estimates continue to rise, and why I believe they will continue to do so.</p>\n<p>Entire countries have made public their desire to ban fossil fuel vehicles in the not-too-distant future, which is why the legacy manufacturers are getting serious about EVs; there is no viable alternative at this point. Tesla has been developing for years and is the undisputed leader in the space, so it is in a much better competitive position for the eventual banning of fossil fuel vehicles around the world. Below we have EV market share, where Tesla is leading the way.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d31a504c8d24f752bdf964272d0c80\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p>\n<p>Tesla is in front of the only legacy OEM with any sort of meaningful share, which doesn't even account for the Detroit automakers, which are just getting started.</p>\n<p>Tesla has years of knowledge in battery development - which is a key competitive advantage and differentiator - and it has already invested in manufacturing scale that not only affords higher capacity but a lead over the others that are trying to catch up. In short, Tesla knew the path forward was EVs years before the OEMs, which are now trying to replicate Tesla's success.</p>\n<p>On the earnings front, Tesla used to be a leap of faith that at some point, the company would actually make some money. However, Tesla has now produced a full-year profit, and there appears to be no looking back.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/509625fa57a60dedf709454caef2bf2a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>Estimates have ramped higher since mid-2019, with steep upward slopes in estimates from 2021 through 2026 moving meaningfully higher. Tesla, in other words, has reached the inflection point with volume where it can cover all of its fixed costs, and reliably stop burning through cash by the hundreds of millions of dollars, which was an issue for years. That’s critically important because Tesla is no longer a leap of faith; it is a company with industry-leading operating margins and huge revenue growth potential.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2ca244f453cb1ff0d6cf666285f958d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"280\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>If you look at the bottom line in the above table, operating income on a TTM basis was negative through March 2019 but has been positive - and rising - since. That means Tesla has indeed reached the point where profitability is no longer a concern; this is an important step in its maturation process and proof it is now a mainstream automaker.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation and sentiment</b></p>\n<p>The interesting thing is that despite the wave of positive news coming from Tesla itself, and in news items like entire countries planning to ban fossil fuel vehicles, the analyst community is never quite bullish on Tesla.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/464a965b06e8dd2a0e88f7849563b9fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"188\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>Authors here on<i>Seeking Alpha</i>are, on the whole, bearish leaning, while we see a similar story with Wall Street ratings. I simply don’t agree given the massive potential Tesla has and the fact that it is a proven winner. There are now countless EV manufacturers, but none of them have the scale, product line, and development time in the tool kit that Tesla does.</p>\n<p>And as Tesla continues to take market share in this market that is growing so rapidly, there is a lot of room for analysts to figure out they are on the wrong side of Tesla.</p>\n<p>Finally, let’s take a look at the EV to sales ratios of Tesla and a selection of competitors for the past year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57b4c81b65d3137aa47507c4757025df\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"186\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>Valuations moved a lot higher coming out of the pandemic, but that’s true of just about any sector you can think of; a 100-year pandemic event will crush valuations. Out of that, however, came much higher EV stock valuations for all of the reasons I mentioned above; the market is booming and consumers are responding by buying EVs. However, the massive run-up in valuations has largely been unwound, and I think it is pretty interesting that Tesla, which trades at 13X EV to forward sales, is in the middle of this pack.</p>\n<p>The others on the list can rightly be called startups and have nothing close to the brand recognition, product line, development capability, manufacturing capability, or anything else you can think of when compared to Tesla. That means Tesla’s competitive advantage should be secure for years to come, but it trades for a similar valuation to these others that are sort of like buying Tesla in 2012 or 2013; it might work out, but it might not. Tesla is a very long way down the road in terms of its lifecycle compared to these competitors, so the relative risk is much lower.</p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Tesla is not only winning today, but it is continuing to invest tirelessly into winning tomorrow. Production scale for models like the 3, S, X, and Y is critical because those vehicles are selling today and providing the cash to invest in things like Cybertruck and Semi. Tesla is committed to winning in all stages of the EV market, including not only consumer but commercial as well.</p>\n<p>Semi production isn’t far off, and the company is already receiving interest from buyers. This has the potential for<i>massive</i>market share gains for Tesla in the next decade, but is not a story for 2021, to be clear.</p>\n<p>The point here is that Tesla shares have been beaten down to levels that I believe are low enough to buy. The company has been a reliable winner into earnings reports, which we are slated to see in just over three weeks time. Its market share gains continue to pile up and with its massive head start in the world of EVs, Tesla looks like a clear long-term winner.</p>\n<p>Valuations are rich but have come way down in recent weeks, and I’m going against the grain of recent pieces here on<i>SA</i>and am very bullish on Tesla, not only short term but longer term as well.</p>\n<p>Risks abound, of course, as they do with any automaker. The core risk for any company is that its product doesn't work in the marketplace, but for Tesla, that seems a bit farfetched given the success it has had. Tesla now has a full lineup of vehicles that is ever-expanding, and its brand is hugely valuable given its de factor first-mover advantage in EVs, scaling before the rest of the world thought to do so.</p>\n<p>Given this, the principal risk to Tesla's bull case is not in the business itself, but in the valuation discussion. It is possible that investors will choose to stop paying very high earnings multiples for Tesla in the coming years. This could occur due to missteps from Tesla - such as poor product design, overcapacity, or products consumers simply don't want - or it could come from the intense amount of competition that is likely to come online in the coming years.</p>\n<p>That, to me, is the biggest risk of buying Tesla today because it certainly appears this company is doing all the right things to win in an EV-dominated world. Thus, if you can look past the current valuation, if you're going to buy an automaker, you want to look at Tesla first.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: The Time Is Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: The Time Is Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-05 23:28 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4417634-tesla-the-time-is-now><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTSLA has been decimated in recent weeks.\nHowever, there is cause for optimism for the bulls.\nI'll explain a number of reasons why Tesla is a strong buy.\n\nPhoto by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4417634-tesla-the-time-is-now\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4417634-tesla-the-time-is-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1123709980","content_text":"Summary\n\nTSLA has been decimated in recent weeks.\nHowever, there is cause for optimism for the bulls.\nI'll explain a number of reasons why Tesla is a strong buy.\n\nPhoto by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nGrowth stocks have been absolutely destroyed in the past couple of months, and in the process, some bargains have been created. Not all growth stocks are created equal, and there were undoubtedly some frothy rallies that took place into the early part of 2021, but opportunities abound if you – like me – think that the rapid economic expansion out of the COVID recession will serve these growth stocks well.\nOne name that I haven’t touched much in the past, but that I believe is on the cusp of a big move higher, is electric vehicle OG Tesla(TSLA). Below, I’ll discuss why I like Tesla’s fundamentals at the current price, but the timing of my bullish position is dictated by what we see below.\nSource: StockCharts\nI’ve circled the areas that are ~4 weeks out from an upcoming earnings report to show how reliable Tesla has been in advancing – in a big way – into earnings reports. We are just under four weeks away from Tesla’s late-April report, and if history is a guide, the stock is likely to be a lot higher by the time the company reports than it is today. Given the immense weakness we’ve seen in the stock, I think the odds are even higher this time that the stock makes a run into the report than it usually is.\nNot only has Tesla been a big winner trading into earnings releases, but there are signs that the selling is losing momentum. The relative bottom at $539 was met with new momentum lows in the RSI and PPO, but the current move down has seen momentum much higher on a relative basis. That doesn’t guarantee anything, but it does show that the worst of the selling isprobablyover. I’ve circled the divergences I’m referencing in the chart above, as these are the earliest signs of a bottom being formed.\nThose that read my work know that I trust the accumulation/distribution line, which has never wavered despite the relentless selling we’ve seen. This indicator shows whether investors are buying dips or not and for the A/D line to look like that, on a stock with a massive market capitalization, institutions must be buying. Like the momentum indicators, nothing is certain with the A/D line, but all of this adds up to a stock that looks to me like it is trying to bottom.\nBut there’s one more piece of evidence I’d like to offer up that I believe shows Tesla is very oversold and is due for a rally. Below, I’ve plotted the total percentage returns over the prior 50-day period going back to the middle of 2018 to show just how ugly the recent selling has been.\nSource: Author’s chart using historical price data from Yahoo! Finance\nTesla is currently showing 50-day returns of -25%, which has only occurred a handful of times in the past three years. We can see that there was one period of protracted weakness in early 2019 that eventually resolved itself to the upside but did take some time. That was before EV stocks got their massive bid from investors, and I think it is pretty easy to argue that time frame isn’t all that comparable to today.\nWhat is comparable to today is the time period since 2020 began, and if we look at that, we see that Tesla is more oversold today by this measure than during any of the other drawdowns. I’ll say again none of this guarantees anything, but it certainly looks to me like Tesla is quite oversold on this measure, and keep in mind 50 trading days is roughly two and half months, so this is a longer-term indicator with lots of data points.\nNow, when I put all of this together – the recent decline, the divergences in momentum, the fact that Tesla has been a huge winner into earnings releases, and 50-day rolling returns – all signs point to a much higher stock a month or two down the road.\nObviously, risks exist. The narrative for growth stocks being crushed has been higher interest rates, and if rates continue higher, it is possible we see more selling in growth names. However, the damage has been pretty severe in a lot of cases, and the interest rate narrative is a couple of months old at this point, so I’m not sure how much more downside there could be relative to what has already taken place.\nEven if you do buy into the idea that higher rates are responsible for growth stocks coming down, it appears to me we have rally exhaustion going on in rates, opposite to what I just explained for Tesla.\nSource: StockCharts\nWe can see with this two-year chart that rates are still well below where they were pre-pandemic, with room for another 20 or 30bps before getting back to early-2020 levels. I mention this to say it isn’t like we’re making new highs in rates that should see growth stocks be decimated; this is just a rebound.\nBut more importantly, the vertical line I’ve annotated shows that the ten-year has climbed for about a month, making new relative highs repeatedly without any sort of momentum confirmation. The PPO is moving lower, and the 14-day RSI is doing the same thing. This doesn’t guarantee rates are coming down, but it does certainly show the rally is losing steam. Negative divergences like these often portend a change of trend, at least temporarily, and I firmly believe rates have moved too high, too quickly. If you believe rates are responsible for growth stock declines, this should look pretty bullish to you.\nNot just a trade\nI’ve detailed above why I think Tesla is set up very well right now technically, and I think the stock is on the cusp of a big move higher. However, Tesla isn’t just a trade candidate. I used to be a Tesla hater based on valuation this and valuation that, but the company has proven me wrong time and again. And it isn’t just me; have a look at this chart of revenue estimates, which move up, up, and up some more over time.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nRevenue estimates have soared for the out years, but also for 2021 and 2022, in recent months. Tesla (read: Musk) has put out some highly ambitious goals over the year, some of which have come to fruition, and some of which haven’t. But this company is a massive disruptor in an industry with literally trillions of dollars on the line in the coming decade and has a huge head start on legacy players that are now trying to play catch up.\nSource: Investor presentation\nThe company continues to invest billions of dollars in new production capacity for its products, including Gigafactories in Shanghai, Berlin, and Austin. The Roadster will be low volume and likely won’t make much difference for revenue or earnings, but things like the Cybertruck and Semi have enormous potential.\nTesla has taken big market share gains over the years with a very small lineup of vehicles, and as batteries become cheaper, as ranges get longer, and as more and more localities ban gasoline and diesel vehicles, Tesla is easily the biggest winner. Legacy manufacturers have scale advantages in terms of financing and footprints in place, but they are many years behind Tesla in terms of development.\nThe beautiful thing is that Tesla is taking market share, but the market itself is growing rapidly. The adoption of EVs among consumers is still in the very early stages, and for commercial fleets, it is even earlier. This sort of rapidly expanding market is good for all players, but for Tesla, it is taking share in a burgeoning market, creating a virtuous cycle of upward revenue potential. That’s why estimates continue to rise, and why I believe they will continue to do so.\nEntire countries have made public their desire to ban fossil fuel vehicles in the not-too-distant future, which is why the legacy manufacturers are getting serious about EVs; there is no viable alternative at this point. Tesla has been developing for years and is the undisputed leader in the space, so it is in a much better competitive position for the eventual banning of fossil fuel vehicles around the world. Below we have EV market share, where Tesla is leading the way.\nSource: Statista\nTesla is in front of the only legacy OEM with any sort of meaningful share, which doesn't even account for the Detroit automakers, which are just getting started.\nTesla has years of knowledge in battery development - which is a key competitive advantage and differentiator - and it has already invested in manufacturing scale that not only affords higher capacity but a lead over the others that are trying to catch up. In short, Tesla knew the path forward was EVs years before the OEMs, which are now trying to replicate Tesla's success.\nOn the earnings front, Tesla used to be a leap of faith that at some point, the company would actually make some money. However, Tesla has now produced a full-year profit, and there appears to be no looking back.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nEstimates have ramped higher since mid-2019, with steep upward slopes in estimates from 2021 through 2026 moving meaningfully higher. Tesla, in other words, has reached the inflection point with volume where it can cover all of its fixed costs, and reliably stop burning through cash by the hundreds of millions of dollars, which was an issue for years. That’s critically important because Tesla is no longer a leap of faith; it is a company with industry-leading operating margins and huge revenue growth potential.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nIf you look at the bottom line in the above table, operating income on a TTM basis was negative through March 2019 but has been positive - and rising - since. That means Tesla has indeed reached the point where profitability is no longer a concern; this is an important step in its maturation process and proof it is now a mainstream automaker.\nValuation and sentiment\nThe interesting thing is that despite the wave of positive news coming from Tesla itself, and in news items like entire countries planning to ban fossil fuel vehicles, the analyst community is never quite bullish on Tesla.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nAuthors here onSeeking Alphaare, on the whole, bearish leaning, while we see a similar story with Wall Street ratings. I simply don’t agree given the massive potential Tesla has and the fact that it is a proven winner. There are now countless EV manufacturers, but none of them have the scale, product line, and development time in the tool kit that Tesla does.\nAnd as Tesla continues to take market share in this market that is growing so rapidly, there is a lot of room for analysts to figure out they are on the wrong side of Tesla.\nFinally, let’s take a look at the EV to sales ratios of Tesla and a selection of competitors for the past year.\nSource: TIKR.com\nValuations moved a lot higher coming out of the pandemic, but that’s true of just about any sector you can think of; a 100-year pandemic event will crush valuations. Out of that, however, came much higher EV stock valuations for all of the reasons I mentioned above; the market is booming and consumers are responding by buying EVs. However, the massive run-up in valuations has largely been unwound, and I think it is pretty interesting that Tesla, which trades at 13X EV to forward sales, is in the middle of this pack.\nThe others on the list can rightly be called startups and have nothing close to the brand recognition, product line, development capability, manufacturing capability, or anything else you can think of when compared to Tesla. That means Tesla’s competitive advantage should be secure for years to come, but it trades for a similar valuation to these others that are sort of like buying Tesla in 2012 or 2013; it might work out, but it might not. Tesla is a very long way down the road in terms of its lifecycle compared to these competitors, so the relative risk is much lower.\nFinal Thoughts\nTesla is not only winning today, but it is continuing to invest tirelessly into winning tomorrow. Production scale for models like the 3, S, X, and Y is critical because those vehicles are selling today and providing the cash to invest in things like Cybertruck and Semi. Tesla is committed to winning in all stages of the EV market, including not only consumer but commercial as well.\nSemi production isn’t far off, and the company is already receiving interest from buyers. This has the potential formassivemarket share gains for Tesla in the next decade, but is not a story for 2021, to be clear.\nThe point here is that Tesla shares have been beaten down to levels that I believe are low enough to buy. The company has been a reliable winner into earnings reports, which we are slated to see in just over three weeks time. Its market share gains continue to pile up and with its massive head start in the world of EVs, Tesla looks like a clear long-term winner.\nValuations are rich but have come way down in recent weeks, and I’m going against the grain of recent pieces here onSAand am very bullish on Tesla, not only short term but longer term as well.\nRisks abound, of course, as they do with any automaker. The core risk for any company is that its product doesn't work in the marketplace, but for Tesla, that seems a bit farfetched given the success it has had. Tesla now has a full lineup of vehicles that is ever-expanding, and its brand is hugely valuable given its de factor first-mover advantage in EVs, scaling before the rest of the world thought to do so.\nGiven this, the principal risk to Tesla's bull case is not in the business itself, but in the valuation discussion. It is possible that investors will choose to stop paying very high earnings multiples for Tesla in the coming years. This could occur due to missteps from Tesla - such as poor product design, overcapacity, or products consumers simply don't want - or it could come from the intense amount of competition that is likely to come online in the coming years.\nThat, to me, is the biggest risk of buying Tesla today because it certainly appears this company is doing all the right things to win in an EV-dominated world. Thus, if you can look past the current valuation, if you're going to buy an automaker, you want to look at Tesla first.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349530984,"gmtCreate":1617623324548,"gmtModify":1634297509751,"author":{"id":"3580619930419591","authorId":"3580619930419591","name":"Jiemisi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99374deadaa1248ef76b2300cc483ac0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580619930419591","idStr":"3580619930419591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349530984","repostId":"2124273761","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349311121,"gmtCreate":1617541588363,"gmtModify":1634520592219,"author":{"id":"3580619930419591","authorId":"3580619930419591","name":"Jiemisi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99374deadaa1248ef76b2300cc483ac0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580619930419591","idStr":"3580619930419591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"great","listText":"great","text":"great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349311121","repostId":"1172061871","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349313444,"gmtCreate":1617541504488,"gmtModify":1634520592805,"author":{"id":"3580619930419591","authorId":"3580619930419591","name":"Jiemisi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99374deadaa1248ef76b2300cc483ac0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580619930419591","idStr":"3580619930419591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑] ","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349313444","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<blockquote>\n You may not like the answer.\n</blockquote>\n<p>For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p>\n<p>But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p>\n<p>It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p>\n<p><b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p>\n<p>To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p>\n<p>However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p>\n<p>We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p>\n<p><b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p>\n<p>Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p>\n<p>Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p>\n<p>Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p>\n<p><b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p>\n<p>But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p>\n<p>As of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p>\n<p>To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p>\n<p>However, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p>\n<p><b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p>\n<p>To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p>\n<p>While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p>\n<p>The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.</p>\n<p>If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-02 20:22 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":792,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":349313192,"gmtCreate":1617541466216,"gmtModify":1634520593298,"author":{"id":"3580619930419591","authorId":"3580619930419591","name":"Jiemisi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99374deadaa1248ef76b2300cc483ac0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580619930419591","idStr":"3580619930419591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349313192","repostId":"1188150614","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":495,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":341383616,"gmtCreate":1617783046935,"gmtModify":1634296543407,"author":{"id":"3580619930419591","authorId":"3580619930419591","name":"Jiemisi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99374deadaa1248ef76b2300cc483ac0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580619930419591","authorIdStr":"3580619930419591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice 👍🏻 ","listText":"Nice 👍🏻 ","text":"Nice 👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341383616","repostId":"1123709980","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1123709980","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617636511,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123709980?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-05 23:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: The Time Is Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123709980","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"However, there is cause for optimism for the bulls.I'll explain a number of reasons why Tesla is a strong buy.Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News via Getty Images. Growth stocks have been absolutely destroyed in the past couple of months, and in the process, some bargains have been created. Not all growth stocks are created equal, and there were undoubtedly some frothy rallies that took place into the early part of 2021, but opportunities abound if you – like me – think that the rapid eco","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>TSLA has been decimated in recent weeks.</li>\n <li>However, there is cause for optimism for the bulls.</li>\n <li>I'll explain a number of reasons why Tesla is a strong buy.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34d035a970508c4a7d59d7c16d728cb5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1000\"><span>Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Growth stocks have been absolutely destroyed in the past couple of months, and in the process, some bargains have been created. Not all growth stocks are created equal, and there were undoubtedly some frothy rallies that took place into the early part of 2021, but opportunities abound if you – like me – think that the rapid economic expansion out of the COVID recession will serve these growth stocks well.</p>\n<p>One name that I haven’t touched much in the past, but that I believe is on the cusp of a big move higher, is electric vehicle OG <b>Tesla</b>(TSLA). Below, I’ll discuss why I like Tesla’s fundamentals at the current price, but the timing of my bullish position is dictated by what we see below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f72f46ef39a132b1d301fa60da71f7ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"633\"><span>Source: StockCharts</span></p>\n<p>I’ve circled the areas that are ~4 weeks out from an upcoming earnings report to show how reliable Tesla has been in advancing – in a big way – into earnings reports. We are just under four weeks away from Tesla’s late-April report, and if history is a guide, the stock is likely to be a lot higher by the time the company reports than it is today. Given the immense weakness we’ve seen in the stock, I think the odds are even higher this time that the stock makes a run into the report than it usually is.</p>\n<p>Not only has Tesla been a big winner trading into earnings releases, but there are signs that the selling is losing momentum. The relative bottom at $539 was met with new momentum lows in the RSI and PPO, but the current move down has seen momentum much higher on a relative basis. That doesn’t guarantee anything, but it does show that the worst of the selling is<i>probably</i>over. I’ve circled the divergences I’m referencing in the chart above, as these are the earliest signs of a bottom being formed.</p>\n<p>Those that read my work know that I trust the accumulation/distribution line, which has never wavered despite the relentless selling we’ve seen. This indicator shows whether investors are buying dips or not and for the A/D line to look like that, on a stock with a massive market capitalization, institutions must be buying. Like the momentum indicators, nothing is certain with the A/D line, but all of this adds up to a stock that looks to me like it is trying to bottom.</p>\n<p>But there’s one more piece of evidence I’d like to offer up that I believe shows Tesla is very oversold and is due for a rally. Below, I’ve plotted the total percentage returns over the prior 50-day period going back to the middle of 2018 to show just how ugly the recent selling has been.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41235a82786f7c031ead1bbf3aa15c90\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source: Author’s chart using historical price data from Yahoo! Finance</span></p>\n<p>Tesla is currently showing 50-day returns of -25%, which has only occurred a handful of times in the past three years. We can see that there was one period of protracted weakness in early 2019 that eventually resolved itself to the upside but did take some time. That was before EV stocks got their massive bid from investors, and I think it is pretty easy to argue that time frame isn’t all that comparable to today.</p>\n<p>What is comparable to today is the time period since 2020 began, and if we look at that, we see that Tesla is more oversold today by this measure than during any of the other drawdowns. I’ll say again none of this guarantees anything, but it certainly looks to me like Tesla is quite oversold on this measure, and keep in mind 50 trading days is roughly two and half months, so this is a longer-term indicator with lots of data points.</p>\n<p>Now, when I put all of this together – the recent decline, the divergences in momentum, the fact that Tesla has been a huge winner into earnings releases, and 50-day rolling returns – all signs point to a much higher stock a month or two down the road.</p>\n<p>Obviously, risks exist. The narrative for growth stocks being crushed has been higher interest rates, and if rates continue higher, it is possible we see more selling in growth names. However, the damage has been pretty severe in a lot of cases, and the interest rate narrative is a couple of months old at this point, so I’m not sure how much more downside there could be relative to what has already taken place.</p>\n<p>Even if you do buy into the idea that higher rates are responsible for growth stocks coming down, it appears to me we have rally exhaustion going on in rates, opposite to what I just explained for Tesla.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8431dcf8a7afbe72249144c017e28ced\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"536\"><span>Source: StockCharts</span></p>\n<p>We can see with this two-year chart that rates are still well below where they were pre-pandemic, with room for another 20 or 30bps before getting back to early-2020 levels. I mention this to say it isn’t like we’re making new highs in rates that should see growth stocks be decimated; this is just a rebound.</p>\n<p>But more importantly, the vertical line I’ve annotated shows that the ten-year has climbed for about a month, making new relative highs repeatedly without any sort of momentum confirmation. The PPO is moving lower, and the 14-day RSI is doing the same thing. This doesn’t guarantee rates are coming down, but it does certainly show the rally is losing steam. Negative divergences like these often portend a change of trend, at least temporarily, and I firmly believe rates have moved too high, too quickly. If you believe rates are responsible for growth stock declines, this should look pretty bullish to you.</p>\n<p><b>Not just a trade</b></p>\n<p>I’ve detailed above why I think Tesla is set up very well right now technically, and I think the stock is on the cusp of a big move higher. However, Tesla isn’t just a trade candidate. I used to be a Tesla hater based on valuation this and valuation that, but the company has proven me wrong time and again. And it isn’t just me; have a look at this chart of revenue estimates, which move up, up, and up some more over time.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8499c62835d88fca8a6c22c7cb8aeae8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>Revenue estimates have soared for the out years, but also for 2021 and 2022, in recent months. Tesla (read: Musk) has put out some highly ambitious goals over the year, some of which have come to fruition, and some of which haven’t. But this company is a massive disruptor in an industry with literally trillions of dollars on the line in the coming decade and has a huge head start on legacy players that are now trying to play catch up.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/414e539154fdd2ed51e8f5518cc1dee4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"663\"><span>Source: Investor presentation</span></p>\n<p>The company continues to invest billions of dollars in new production capacity for its products, including Gigafactories in Shanghai, Berlin, and Austin. The Roadster will be low volume and likely won’t make much difference for revenue or earnings, but things like the Cybertruck and Semi have enormous potential.</p>\n<p>Tesla has taken big market share gains over the years with a very small lineup of vehicles, and as batteries become cheaper, as ranges get longer, and as more and more localities ban gasoline and diesel vehicles, Tesla is easily the biggest winner. Legacy manufacturers have scale advantages in terms of financing and footprints in place, but they are many years behind Tesla in terms of development.</p>\n<p>The beautiful thing is that Tesla is taking market share, but the market itself is growing rapidly. The adoption of EVs among consumers is still in the very early stages, and for commercial fleets, it is even earlier. This sort of rapidly expanding market is good for all players, but for Tesla, it is taking share in a burgeoning market, creating a virtuous cycle of upward revenue potential. That’s why estimates continue to rise, and why I believe they will continue to do so.</p>\n<p>Entire countries have made public their desire to ban fossil fuel vehicles in the not-too-distant future, which is why the legacy manufacturers are getting serious about EVs; there is no viable alternative at this point. Tesla has been developing for years and is the undisputed leader in the space, so it is in a much better competitive position for the eventual banning of fossil fuel vehicles around the world. Below we have EV market share, where Tesla is leading the way.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d31a504c8d24f752bdf964272d0c80\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p>\n<p>Tesla is in front of the only legacy OEM with any sort of meaningful share, which doesn't even account for the Detroit automakers, which are just getting started.</p>\n<p>Tesla has years of knowledge in battery development - which is a key competitive advantage and differentiator - and it has already invested in manufacturing scale that not only affords higher capacity but a lead over the others that are trying to catch up. In short, Tesla knew the path forward was EVs years before the OEMs, which are now trying to replicate Tesla's success.</p>\n<p>On the earnings front, Tesla used to be a leap of faith that at some point, the company would actually make some money. However, Tesla has now produced a full-year profit, and there appears to be no looking back.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/509625fa57a60dedf709454caef2bf2a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>Estimates have ramped higher since mid-2019, with steep upward slopes in estimates from 2021 through 2026 moving meaningfully higher. Tesla, in other words, has reached the inflection point with volume where it can cover all of its fixed costs, and reliably stop burning through cash by the hundreds of millions of dollars, which was an issue for years. That’s critically important because Tesla is no longer a leap of faith; it is a company with industry-leading operating margins and huge revenue growth potential.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2ca244f453cb1ff0d6cf666285f958d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"280\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>If you look at the bottom line in the above table, operating income on a TTM basis was negative through March 2019 but has been positive - and rising - since. That means Tesla has indeed reached the point where profitability is no longer a concern; this is an important step in its maturation process and proof it is now a mainstream automaker.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation and sentiment</b></p>\n<p>The interesting thing is that despite the wave of positive news coming from Tesla itself, and in news items like entire countries planning to ban fossil fuel vehicles, the analyst community is never quite bullish on Tesla.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/464a965b06e8dd2a0e88f7849563b9fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"188\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>Authors here on<i>Seeking Alpha</i>are, on the whole, bearish leaning, while we see a similar story with Wall Street ratings. I simply don’t agree given the massive potential Tesla has and the fact that it is a proven winner. There are now countless EV manufacturers, but none of them have the scale, product line, and development time in the tool kit that Tesla does.</p>\n<p>And as Tesla continues to take market share in this market that is growing so rapidly, there is a lot of room for analysts to figure out they are on the wrong side of Tesla.</p>\n<p>Finally, let’s take a look at the EV to sales ratios of Tesla and a selection of competitors for the past year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57b4c81b65d3137aa47507c4757025df\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"186\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p>\n<p>Valuations moved a lot higher coming out of the pandemic, but that’s true of just about any sector you can think of; a 100-year pandemic event will crush valuations. Out of that, however, came much higher EV stock valuations for all of the reasons I mentioned above; the market is booming and consumers are responding by buying EVs. However, the massive run-up in valuations has largely been unwound, and I think it is pretty interesting that Tesla, which trades at 13X EV to forward sales, is in the middle of this pack.</p>\n<p>The others on the list can rightly be called startups and have nothing close to the brand recognition, product line, development capability, manufacturing capability, or anything else you can think of when compared to Tesla. That means Tesla’s competitive advantage should be secure for years to come, but it trades for a similar valuation to these others that are sort of like buying Tesla in 2012 or 2013; it might work out, but it might not. Tesla is a very long way down the road in terms of its lifecycle compared to these competitors, so the relative risk is much lower.</p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Tesla is not only winning today, but it is continuing to invest tirelessly into winning tomorrow. Production scale for models like the 3, S, X, and Y is critical because those vehicles are selling today and providing the cash to invest in things like Cybertruck and Semi. Tesla is committed to winning in all stages of the EV market, including not only consumer but commercial as well.</p>\n<p>Semi production isn’t far off, and the company is already receiving interest from buyers. This has the potential for<i>massive</i>market share gains for Tesla in the next decade, but is not a story for 2021, to be clear.</p>\n<p>The point here is that Tesla shares have been beaten down to levels that I believe are low enough to buy. The company has been a reliable winner into earnings reports, which we are slated to see in just over three weeks time. Its market share gains continue to pile up and with its massive head start in the world of EVs, Tesla looks like a clear long-term winner.</p>\n<p>Valuations are rich but have come way down in recent weeks, and I’m going against the grain of recent pieces here on<i>SA</i>and am very bullish on Tesla, not only short term but longer term as well.</p>\n<p>Risks abound, of course, as they do with any automaker. The core risk for any company is that its product doesn't work in the marketplace, but for Tesla, that seems a bit farfetched given the success it has had. Tesla now has a full lineup of vehicles that is ever-expanding, and its brand is hugely valuable given its de factor first-mover advantage in EVs, scaling before the rest of the world thought to do so.</p>\n<p>Given this, the principal risk to Tesla's bull case is not in the business itself, but in the valuation discussion. It is possible that investors will choose to stop paying very high earnings multiples for Tesla in the coming years. This could occur due to missteps from Tesla - such as poor product design, overcapacity, or products consumers simply don't want - or it could come from the intense amount of competition that is likely to come online in the coming years.</p>\n<p>That, to me, is the biggest risk of buying Tesla today because it certainly appears this company is doing all the right things to win in an EV-dominated world. Thus, if you can look past the current valuation, if you're going to buy an automaker, you want to look at Tesla first.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: The Time Is Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: The Time Is Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-05 23:28 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4417634-tesla-the-time-is-now><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTSLA has been decimated in recent weeks.\nHowever, there is cause for optimism for the bulls.\nI'll explain a number of reasons why Tesla is a strong buy.\n\nPhoto by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4417634-tesla-the-time-is-now\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4417634-tesla-the-time-is-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1123709980","content_text":"Summary\n\nTSLA has been decimated in recent weeks.\nHowever, there is cause for optimism for the bulls.\nI'll explain a number of reasons why Tesla is a strong buy.\n\nPhoto by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nGrowth stocks have been absolutely destroyed in the past couple of months, and in the process, some bargains have been created. Not all growth stocks are created equal, and there were undoubtedly some frothy rallies that took place into the early part of 2021, but opportunities abound if you – like me – think that the rapid economic expansion out of the COVID recession will serve these growth stocks well.\nOne name that I haven’t touched much in the past, but that I believe is on the cusp of a big move higher, is electric vehicle OG Tesla(TSLA). Below, I’ll discuss why I like Tesla’s fundamentals at the current price, but the timing of my bullish position is dictated by what we see below.\nSource: StockCharts\nI’ve circled the areas that are ~4 weeks out from an upcoming earnings report to show how reliable Tesla has been in advancing – in a big way – into earnings reports. We are just under four weeks away from Tesla’s late-April report, and if history is a guide, the stock is likely to be a lot higher by the time the company reports than it is today. Given the immense weakness we’ve seen in the stock, I think the odds are even higher this time that the stock makes a run into the report than it usually is.\nNot only has Tesla been a big winner trading into earnings releases, but there are signs that the selling is losing momentum. The relative bottom at $539 was met with new momentum lows in the RSI and PPO, but the current move down has seen momentum much higher on a relative basis. That doesn’t guarantee anything, but it does show that the worst of the selling isprobablyover. I’ve circled the divergences I’m referencing in the chart above, as these are the earliest signs of a bottom being formed.\nThose that read my work know that I trust the accumulation/distribution line, which has never wavered despite the relentless selling we’ve seen. This indicator shows whether investors are buying dips or not and for the A/D line to look like that, on a stock with a massive market capitalization, institutions must be buying. Like the momentum indicators, nothing is certain with the A/D line, but all of this adds up to a stock that looks to me like it is trying to bottom.\nBut there’s one more piece of evidence I’d like to offer up that I believe shows Tesla is very oversold and is due for a rally. Below, I’ve plotted the total percentage returns over the prior 50-day period going back to the middle of 2018 to show just how ugly the recent selling has been.\nSource: Author’s chart using historical price data from Yahoo! Finance\nTesla is currently showing 50-day returns of -25%, which has only occurred a handful of times in the past three years. We can see that there was one period of protracted weakness in early 2019 that eventually resolved itself to the upside but did take some time. That was before EV stocks got their massive bid from investors, and I think it is pretty easy to argue that time frame isn’t all that comparable to today.\nWhat is comparable to today is the time period since 2020 began, and if we look at that, we see that Tesla is more oversold today by this measure than during any of the other drawdowns. I’ll say again none of this guarantees anything, but it certainly looks to me like Tesla is quite oversold on this measure, and keep in mind 50 trading days is roughly two and half months, so this is a longer-term indicator with lots of data points.\nNow, when I put all of this together – the recent decline, the divergences in momentum, the fact that Tesla has been a huge winner into earnings releases, and 50-day rolling returns – all signs point to a much higher stock a month or two down the road.\nObviously, risks exist. The narrative for growth stocks being crushed has been higher interest rates, and if rates continue higher, it is possible we see more selling in growth names. However, the damage has been pretty severe in a lot of cases, and the interest rate narrative is a couple of months old at this point, so I’m not sure how much more downside there could be relative to what has already taken place.\nEven if you do buy into the idea that higher rates are responsible for growth stocks coming down, it appears to me we have rally exhaustion going on in rates, opposite to what I just explained for Tesla.\nSource: StockCharts\nWe can see with this two-year chart that rates are still well below where they were pre-pandemic, with room for another 20 or 30bps before getting back to early-2020 levels. I mention this to say it isn’t like we’re making new highs in rates that should see growth stocks be decimated; this is just a rebound.\nBut more importantly, the vertical line I’ve annotated shows that the ten-year has climbed for about a month, making new relative highs repeatedly without any sort of momentum confirmation. The PPO is moving lower, and the 14-day RSI is doing the same thing. This doesn’t guarantee rates are coming down, but it does certainly show the rally is losing steam. Negative divergences like these often portend a change of trend, at least temporarily, and I firmly believe rates have moved too high, too quickly. If you believe rates are responsible for growth stock declines, this should look pretty bullish to you.\nNot just a trade\nI’ve detailed above why I think Tesla is set up very well right now technically, and I think the stock is on the cusp of a big move higher. However, Tesla isn’t just a trade candidate. I used to be a Tesla hater based on valuation this and valuation that, but the company has proven me wrong time and again. And it isn’t just me; have a look at this chart of revenue estimates, which move up, up, and up some more over time.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nRevenue estimates have soared for the out years, but also for 2021 and 2022, in recent months. Tesla (read: Musk) has put out some highly ambitious goals over the year, some of which have come to fruition, and some of which haven’t. But this company is a massive disruptor in an industry with literally trillions of dollars on the line in the coming decade and has a huge head start on legacy players that are now trying to play catch up.\nSource: Investor presentation\nThe company continues to invest billions of dollars in new production capacity for its products, including Gigafactories in Shanghai, Berlin, and Austin. The Roadster will be low volume and likely won’t make much difference for revenue or earnings, but things like the Cybertruck and Semi have enormous potential.\nTesla has taken big market share gains over the years with a very small lineup of vehicles, and as batteries become cheaper, as ranges get longer, and as more and more localities ban gasoline and diesel vehicles, Tesla is easily the biggest winner. Legacy manufacturers have scale advantages in terms of financing and footprints in place, but they are many years behind Tesla in terms of development.\nThe beautiful thing is that Tesla is taking market share, but the market itself is growing rapidly. The adoption of EVs among consumers is still in the very early stages, and for commercial fleets, it is even earlier. This sort of rapidly expanding market is good for all players, but for Tesla, it is taking share in a burgeoning market, creating a virtuous cycle of upward revenue potential. That’s why estimates continue to rise, and why I believe they will continue to do so.\nEntire countries have made public their desire to ban fossil fuel vehicles in the not-too-distant future, which is why the legacy manufacturers are getting serious about EVs; there is no viable alternative at this point. Tesla has been developing for years and is the undisputed leader in the space, so it is in a much better competitive position for the eventual banning of fossil fuel vehicles around the world. Below we have EV market share, where Tesla is leading the way.\nSource: Statista\nTesla is in front of the only legacy OEM with any sort of meaningful share, which doesn't even account for the Detroit automakers, which are just getting started.\nTesla has years of knowledge in battery development - which is a key competitive advantage and differentiator - and it has already invested in manufacturing scale that not only affords higher capacity but a lead over the others that are trying to catch up. In short, Tesla knew the path forward was EVs years before the OEMs, which are now trying to replicate Tesla's success.\nOn the earnings front, Tesla used to be a leap of faith that at some point, the company would actually make some money. However, Tesla has now produced a full-year profit, and there appears to be no looking back.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nEstimates have ramped higher since mid-2019, with steep upward slopes in estimates from 2021 through 2026 moving meaningfully higher. Tesla, in other words, has reached the inflection point with volume where it can cover all of its fixed costs, and reliably stop burning through cash by the hundreds of millions of dollars, which was an issue for years. That’s critically important because Tesla is no longer a leap of faith; it is a company with industry-leading operating margins and huge revenue growth potential.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nIf you look at the bottom line in the above table, operating income on a TTM basis was negative through March 2019 but has been positive - and rising - since. That means Tesla has indeed reached the point where profitability is no longer a concern; this is an important step in its maturation process and proof it is now a mainstream automaker.\nValuation and sentiment\nThe interesting thing is that despite the wave of positive news coming from Tesla itself, and in news items like entire countries planning to ban fossil fuel vehicles, the analyst community is never quite bullish on Tesla.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nAuthors here onSeeking Alphaare, on the whole, bearish leaning, while we see a similar story with Wall Street ratings. I simply don’t agree given the massive potential Tesla has and the fact that it is a proven winner. There are now countless EV manufacturers, but none of them have the scale, product line, and development time in the tool kit that Tesla does.\nAnd as Tesla continues to take market share in this market that is growing so rapidly, there is a lot of room for analysts to figure out they are on the wrong side of Tesla.\nFinally, let’s take a look at the EV to sales ratios of Tesla and a selection of competitors for the past year.\nSource: TIKR.com\nValuations moved a lot higher coming out of the pandemic, but that’s true of just about any sector you can think of; a 100-year pandemic event will crush valuations. Out of that, however, came much higher EV stock valuations for all of the reasons I mentioned above; the market is booming and consumers are responding by buying EVs. However, the massive run-up in valuations has largely been unwound, and I think it is pretty interesting that Tesla, which trades at 13X EV to forward sales, is in the middle of this pack.\nThe others on the list can rightly be called startups and have nothing close to the brand recognition, product line, development capability, manufacturing capability, or anything else you can think of when compared to Tesla. That means Tesla’s competitive advantage should be secure for years to come, but it trades for a similar valuation to these others that are sort of like buying Tesla in 2012 or 2013; it might work out, but it might not. Tesla is a very long way down the road in terms of its lifecycle compared to these competitors, so the relative risk is much lower.\nFinal Thoughts\nTesla is not only winning today, but it is continuing to invest tirelessly into winning tomorrow. Production scale for models like the 3, S, X, and Y is critical because those vehicles are selling today and providing the cash to invest in things like Cybertruck and Semi. Tesla is committed to winning in all stages of the EV market, including not only consumer but commercial as well.\nSemi production isn’t far off, and the company is already receiving interest from buyers. This has the potential formassivemarket share gains for Tesla in the next decade, but is not a story for 2021, to be clear.\nThe point here is that Tesla shares have been beaten down to levels that I believe are low enough to buy. The company has been a reliable winner into earnings reports, which we are slated to see in just over three weeks time. Its market share gains continue to pile up and with its massive head start in the world of EVs, Tesla looks like a clear long-term winner.\nValuations are rich but have come way down in recent weeks, and I’m going against the grain of recent pieces here onSAand am very bullish on Tesla, not only short term but longer term as well.\nRisks abound, of course, as they do with any automaker. The core risk for any company is that its product doesn't work in the marketplace, but for Tesla, that seems a bit farfetched given the success it has had. Tesla now has a full lineup of vehicles that is ever-expanding, and its brand is hugely valuable given its de factor first-mover advantage in EVs, scaling before the rest of the world thought to do so.\nGiven this, the principal risk to Tesla's bull case is not in the business itself, but in the valuation discussion. It is possible that investors will choose to stop paying very high earnings multiples for Tesla in the coming years. This could occur due to missteps from Tesla - such as poor product design, overcapacity, or products consumers simply don't want - or it could come from the intense amount of competition that is likely to come online in the coming years.\nThat, to me, is the biggest risk of buying Tesla today because it certainly appears this company is doing all the right things to win in an EV-dominated world. Thus, if you can look past the current valuation, if you're going to buy an automaker, you want to look at Tesla first.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349311121,"gmtCreate":1617541588363,"gmtModify":1634520592219,"author":{"id":"3580619930419591","authorId":"3580619930419591","name":"Jiemisi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99374deadaa1248ef76b2300cc483ac0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580619930419591","authorIdStr":"3580619930419591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"great","listText":"great","text":"great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349311121","repostId":"1172061871","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349530984,"gmtCreate":1617623324548,"gmtModify":1634297509751,"author":{"id":"3580619930419591","authorId":"3580619930419591","name":"Jiemisi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99374deadaa1248ef76b2300cc483ac0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580619930419591","authorIdStr":"3580619930419591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349530984","repostId":"2124273761","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2124273761","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1617354601,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2124273761?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 17:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Japan and United States aim to cooperate on chip supply -Nikkei","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2124273761","media":"Reuters","summary":"TOKYO, April 2 (Reuters) - The United States and Japan will cooperate on the supply of critical part","content":"<p>TOKYO, April 2 (Reuters) - The United States and Japan will cooperate on the supply of critical parts for chips, aiming for an agreement when the leaders of both countries meet later this month, the Nikkei newspaper said on Friday.</p>\n<p>(Reporting by David Dolan)</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Japan and United States aim to cooperate on chip supply -Nikkei</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJapan and United States aim to cooperate on chip supply -Nikkei\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-02 17:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>TOKYO, April 2 (Reuters) - The United States and Japan will cooperate on the supply of critical parts for chips, aiming for an agreement when the leaders of both countries meet later this month, the Nikkei newspaper said on Friday.</p>\n<p>(Reporting by David Dolan)</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2124273761","content_text":"TOKYO, April 2 (Reuters) - The United States and Japan will cooperate on the supply of critical parts for chips, aiming for an agreement when the leaders of both countries meet later this month, the Nikkei newspaper said on Friday.\n(Reporting by David Dolan)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349313444,"gmtCreate":1617541504488,"gmtModify":1634520592805,"author":{"id":"3580619930419591","authorId":"3580619930419591","name":"Jiemisi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99374deadaa1248ef76b2300cc483ac0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580619930419591","authorIdStr":"3580619930419591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑] ","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349313444","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<blockquote>\n You may not like the answer.\n</blockquote>\n<p>For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p>\n<p>But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p>\n<p>It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p>\n<p><b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p>\n<p>To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p>\n<p>However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p>\n<p>We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p>\n<p><b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p>\n<p>Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p>\n<p>Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p>\n<p>Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p>\n<p><b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p>\n<p>But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p>\n<p>As of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p>\n<p>To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p>\n<p>However, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p>\n<p><b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p>\n<p>To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p>\n<p>While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p>\n<p>The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.</p>\n<p>If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-02 20:22 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":792,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":349313192,"gmtCreate":1617541466216,"gmtModify":1634520593298,"author":{"id":"3580619930419591","authorId":"3580619930419591","name":"Jiemisi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99374deadaa1248ef76b2300cc483ac0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580619930419591","authorIdStr":"3580619930419591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349313192","repostId":"1188150614","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188150614","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366389,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188150614?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Beaten-Down Stocks That Could Double Your Money","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188150614","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Market rotation malaise has infected many investors. Last year, the growth stocks in theNasdaq-100index trounced the staid giants in theDow Jones Industrial Average. It's been a different story so far in 2021, though. The big money appears to be moving into so-called \"risk-off\" stocks.As a result, many of the high-flyers from just a few months ago are now stuck in the doldrums. Some are even down more than 30% from their peaks set earlier this year. There's a silver lining in this dark cloud, ho","content":"<p>Market rotation malaise has infected many investors. Last year, the growth stocks in the<b>Nasdaq-100</b>index trounced the staid giants in the<b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b>. It's been a different story so far in 2021, though. The big money appears to be moving into so-called \"risk-off\" stocks.</p>\n<p>As a result, many of the high-flyers from just a few months ago are now stuck in the doldrums. Some are even down more than 30% from their peaks set earlier this year. There's a silver lining in this dark cloud, however: Quite a few stocks with strong growth prospects are available at discounted prices. Here are three beaten-down stocks that could even double your money -- or more.</p>\n<p><b>DermTech</b></p>\n<p><b>DermTech</b>(NASDAQ:DMTK)markets an exciting product: a skin genomics test that can detect melanoma more accurately and cheaper than surgical biopsy. Its shares soared over 145% year to date by the third week of February. Since then, though, thehealthcare stockhas fallen more than 35%.</p>\n<p>Part of the problem was the aforementioned general sell-off of growth stocks. However, DermTech also provided disappointing guidance in its fourth-quarter update. The company expects first-quarter assay revenue of between $1.6 million and $1.9 million compared to Q4 assay revenue of $1.6 million.</p>\n<p>DermTech still faces some COVID-19 headwinds in reaching out to physicians. The company's long-term growth prospects remain bright, though. DermTech continues to pick up commercial payer reimbursement for its first product, Pigmented Lesion Assay (PLA). It expects to launch an at-home genomics test that identifies ultraviolet ray damage and skin cancer risk next year.</p>\n<p>The total addressable U.S. market that DermTech is targeting for all types of skin cancer is around $10 billion. With the company's market cap currently below $1.5 billion, DermTech should only have to capture a tiny sliver of this market to deliver huge returns for investors.</p>\n<p><b>Gores Holdings VI</b></p>\n<p>Special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) stocks were wildly popular not long ago. That's changed quite a bit. <b>Gores Holdings VI</b>(NASDAQ:GHVI)serves as a great example: The SPAC's shares skyrocketed more than 120% year to date by mid-February but are now down over 40% from those highs.</p>\n<p>Gores Holdings VI and spatial data company Matterport announced on Feb. 8 that they plan to merge in a deal that will take Matterport public at an equity value of around $2.9 billion. But Matterport should be able to grow much larger than that relatively quickly.</p>\n<p>Matterport pioneered the spatial data market a decade ago. The company's technology can create a 3D \"digital twin\" of any physical space. Consulting firm<b>Accenture</b>recently picked digital twin technology asone of its top five tech trends of 2021.</p>\n<p>The company already has over 250,000 customers, including 13% of the Fortune 1000. However, less than 1% of the more than 4 billion buildings across the world are currently digitized. This represents a $240 billion opportunity for Matterport. The company expects to nearly double its revenue in 2022 with growth accelerating in subsequent years.</p>\n<p><b>Skillz</b></p>\n<p><b>Skillz</b>(NYSE:SKLZ)stands as the biggest loser of these three beaten-down stocks. Shares of the mobile game platform provider soared nearly 120% by early February only to give up all of those gains and then some. The stock is now down over 5% year to date.</p>\n<p>Like DermTech and Gores Holdings VI, Skillz was negatively impacted by the market rotation away from growth stocks. However, the company's decision to sell 17 million shares in a public offering also hurt.</p>\n<p>Skillz's competition-focused approach keeps users more engaged than other leading online platforms. It's also driving tremendous growth. The company's revenue nearly doubled in 2020. Skillz is especially making inroads in converting users to paying customers.</p>\n<p>The mobile gaming market totaled $86 billion last year and continues to grow rapidly. Skillz should be able to increase its market share as it expands internationally and adds new genres of games to its platform. The company's multi-year agreement with the NFL could also provide a big boost.</p>\n<p>Skillz looks like a stock that could easily double your money and perhaps deliver much greater returns than that over the next couple of years.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Beaten-Down Stocks That Could Double Your Money</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Beaten-Down Stocks That Could Double Your Money\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-02 20:26 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/3-beaten-down-stocks-that-could-double-your-money/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Market rotation malaise has infected many investors. Last year, the growth stocks in theNasdaq-100index trounced the staid giants in theDow Jones Industrial Average. It's been a different story so far...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/3-beaten-down-stocks-that-could-double-your-money/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/3-beaten-down-stocks-that-could-double-your-money/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188150614","content_text":"Market rotation malaise has infected many investors. Last year, the growth stocks in theNasdaq-100index trounced the staid giants in theDow Jones Industrial Average. It's been a different story so far in 2021, though. The big money appears to be moving into so-called \"risk-off\" stocks.\nAs a result, many of the high-flyers from just a few months ago are now stuck in the doldrums. Some are even down more than 30% from their peaks set earlier this year. There's a silver lining in this dark cloud, however: Quite a few stocks with strong growth prospects are available at discounted prices. Here are three beaten-down stocks that could even double your money -- or more.\nDermTech\nDermTech(NASDAQ:DMTK)markets an exciting product: a skin genomics test that can detect melanoma more accurately and cheaper than surgical biopsy. Its shares soared over 145% year to date by the third week of February. Since then, though, thehealthcare stockhas fallen more than 35%.\nPart of the problem was the aforementioned general sell-off of growth stocks. However, DermTech also provided disappointing guidance in its fourth-quarter update. The company expects first-quarter assay revenue of between $1.6 million and $1.9 million compared to Q4 assay revenue of $1.6 million.\nDermTech still faces some COVID-19 headwinds in reaching out to physicians. The company's long-term growth prospects remain bright, though. DermTech continues to pick up commercial payer reimbursement for its first product, Pigmented Lesion Assay (PLA). It expects to launch an at-home genomics test that identifies ultraviolet ray damage and skin cancer risk next year.\nThe total addressable U.S. market that DermTech is targeting for all types of skin cancer is around $10 billion. With the company's market cap currently below $1.5 billion, DermTech should only have to capture a tiny sliver of this market to deliver huge returns for investors.\nGores Holdings VI\nSpecial purpose acquisition company (SPAC) stocks were wildly popular not long ago. That's changed quite a bit. Gores Holdings VI(NASDAQ:GHVI)serves as a great example: The SPAC's shares skyrocketed more than 120% year to date by mid-February but are now down over 40% from those highs.\nGores Holdings VI and spatial data company Matterport announced on Feb. 8 that they plan to merge in a deal that will take Matterport public at an equity value of around $2.9 billion. But Matterport should be able to grow much larger than that relatively quickly.\nMatterport pioneered the spatial data market a decade ago. The company's technology can create a 3D \"digital twin\" of any physical space. Consulting firmAccenturerecently picked digital twin technology asone of its top five tech trends of 2021.\nThe company already has over 250,000 customers, including 13% of the Fortune 1000. However, less than 1% of the more than 4 billion buildings across the world are currently digitized. This represents a $240 billion opportunity for Matterport. The company expects to nearly double its revenue in 2022 with growth accelerating in subsequent years.\nSkillz\nSkillz(NYSE:SKLZ)stands as the biggest loser of these three beaten-down stocks. Shares of the mobile game platform provider soared nearly 120% by early February only to give up all of those gains and then some. The stock is now down over 5% year to date.\nLike DermTech and Gores Holdings VI, Skillz was negatively impacted by the market rotation away from growth stocks. However, the company's decision to sell 17 million shares in a public offering also hurt.\nSkillz's competition-focused approach keeps users more engaged than other leading online platforms. It's also driving tremendous growth. The company's revenue nearly doubled in 2020. Skillz is especially making inroads in converting users to paying customers.\nThe mobile gaming market totaled $86 billion last year and continues to grow rapidly. Skillz should be able to increase its market share as it expands internationally and adds new genres of games to its platform. The company's multi-year agreement with the NFL could also provide a big boost.\nSkillz looks like a stock that could easily double your money and perhaps deliver much greater returns than that over the next couple of years.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":495,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
