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Amins

Amins

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2021-07-14

Im also stressed

Powell will stress patience in Capitol Hill testimony this week

2021-06-15

Pls like n reply for good luck

Warren Buffett and the Myth of the ‘Good Billionaire’

2021-07-18

Hmmmmm

The story behind the savvy ‘Mystery Broker’ and where he sees the market going now

2021-06-16

$Senseonics(SENS)$Still lots of room to grow!!!

2021-06-06

Like my comment for good luck!!

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2021-06-22

Like n reply back for good luck!

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2021-07-20

Niceeee

Biden says inflation temporary; Fed should do what it deems necessary for recovery

2021-07-05

Please like n reply for good luck!

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2021-07-04

Please like this comment for good luck!

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2021-06-12

Fed Up

Don't be fooled by some of the hawkish sounds coming out of the Fed next week

2021-06-27

Woohoo!Pls like n comment back for good luck!

Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict

2021-09-02

No god no please no!!

5 Reasons The Next Stock Bear Market And Recession Could Be The Worst Since The 1930s

2021-06-09

Not sure abt thatBut like and comment here for good luck!

Biohaven CEO says drug approval is ‘monumental’ for migraine patients

2021-08-11

Hmmmmm

Chinese Electric-Vehicle Maker Aiways Explores 2021 U.S. IPO

2021-07-10

Niooooo

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-14

Wow

Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays

2021-05-11

Damn!!

Markets tumble in Asia as inflation fears haunt trading floors

2021-09-19

Noooo

5 Reasons The Next Stock Bear Market And Recession Could Be The Worst Since The 1930s

2021-07-08

U sure bro??

3 Reasons To Stay Bullish On Stocks In The Second Half Of 2021

2021-06-24

Pls like n comment for good luck!

The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer

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,"listText":"Ya","text":"Ya","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865649791","repostId":"2165880909","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2165880909","pubTimestamp":1630973976,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2165880909?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 08:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These are the most important things to check on a stock's quote page before deciding whether to buy or sell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165880909","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Become a smarter investor by knowing these secrets\nMiramax/Courtesy Everett Collection\nThere's a lot","content":"<p>Become a smarter investor by knowing these secrets</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bd10c4b54d3dae1621221f7903db5c0\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Miramax/Courtesy Everett Collection</span></p>\n<p>There's a lot more investors can glean from a MarketWatch stock quote page than just the price and the change from the previous session. In fact, price may be one of the least useful research data available.</p>\n<p>Of course, you may want to know what is driving a big change in the stock price. Type a company's ticker symbol or name into the search field on MarketWatch.com to get the stock page (also called a ticker page) and look under the \"overview\" tab for reports from MarketWatch and other Dow Jones publication as well as company news releases and reports from some other contributors.</p>\n<p>But to become a smarter investor, you need to look at both the stock price and the underlying metrics used to evaluate a company and stock against both peers and over time.</p>\n<p>One way to do that is by using an \"advanced\" or \"interactive\" chart, which can be found on the MarketWatch quote page. The charts can extend the time viewed to more than 10 years, and can overlay, or provide in a lower chart, a number of technical or fundamental metrics. It also lets you compare the moves to other stocks and indexes.</p>\n<p><b>Here are 10 things more important than price that are available to investors, listed in alphabetical order:</b></p>\n<p><b>52-week high and low</b></p>\n<p>A stock's 52-week high or low is a price range that helps an investor see where the stock is trading relative to how it has traded over the past year. It can be found under the \"overview\" tab in a quote page.</p>\n<p>Although some might view a stock trading closer to its low over the past year as relatively cheap, Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities Corp., said he would prefer to invest in a stock that is trading closer to its 52-week high than its 52-week low.</p>\n<p>\"I'm not looking at what the market is getting wrong, I'm looking at what the market is getting right,\" Hogan said. \"It's near its high for a reason.\"</p>\n<p><b>Analysts' estimates for EPS and revenue</b></p>\n<p>Michael O'Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, likes to check the change in analyst expectations for full-year earnings per share and revenue, as that can provide a view on how Wall Street perceives the underlying strength of a company's business.</p>\n<p>Those and more can be found under the \"analyst estimates\" tab on a quote page.</p>\n<p>A look at the yearly numbers shows the EPS estimates for the current year as well as for the next two years, as compiled by FactSet, in both table form and as a chart. The page also shows how what a company reported on a quarterly basis compared with the average analyst EPS estimate, overall analyst ratings of a company and how the ratings have changed over the past three months, and the average stock price target and notable changes in ratings and targets.</p>\n<p>For example, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a> Inc.'s (FB) full-year EPS was expected to keep growing at a steady rate as of the start of the third quarter of 2021, and its reported quarterly EPS beat expectations in the previous four quarters.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50656942d689198af3b07d9daf23f6aa\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Facebook Inc. MARKETWATCH</span></p>\n<p><b>Competitors</b></p>\n<p>It's smart to compare a company's financial performance against its competitors when assessing its financial performance. Scroll to the bottom of the \"overview\" page to find that list -- companies in the same business and in some cases others in a similar broadly defined sector and within the same market-capitalization tier.</p>\n<p><b>Dividend yield</b></p>\n<p>Also on the \"overview\" page is the dividend yield, or the annual dividend rate per share divided by the stock price. It is best viewed relative to a company's peers, the broader stock market and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note.</p>\n<p>For example, Microsoft Corp.'s&nbsp;dividend yield as of the end of August 2021 was a little over half that of the S&amp;P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield. However, the yield is above that of Apple Inc., the only other company with a larger market cap, and above the yield of the SPDR Technology Select Sector exchange-traded fund.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd61d5b4cd852aa306853f533c4ce6e9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MARKETWATCH, BIGCHARTS</span></p>\n<p>To see if the company has consistently paid a regular dividend, select \"dividend\" under the \"events\" tab.</p>\n<p><b>Free cash flow</b></p>\n<p>Free cash flow is the cash generated from operations after expenses and capital investments. The more cash available to a company, the more it can spend to expand. It can be found under the \"financials\" tab, then click on the secondary \"cash flow\" tab.</p>\n<p>How free cash flow changes over time is useful in judging the current strength of a company's business and its potential for growth, said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Investment Management.</p>\n<p>The MarketWatch quote page provides a scale to see the change in free cash flow on an annual basis over the past five years or over the past five quarters.</p>\n<p>For example, free cash flow&nbsp;was a key metric analysts used to evaluate General Electric Co., as the company recovered from years of financial distress. The quote page shows how FCF turned positive in 2019 after being negative the previous three years and that it stayed positive in 2020.</p>\n<p><b>Gross profit margin</b></p>\n<p>Gross profit margin, and the change over time, is another important measure of a company's profitability. That can be found under the \"financials\" tab on a quote page.</p>\n<p>Gross profit margin is calculated by dividing gross income -- sales minus cost of goods sold (COGS) -- by sales. It should be viewed over time and relative to its peers.</p>\n<p>For example, the year-over-year growth rate for Microsoft's revenue has been higher than the COGS growth rate the past four years, which indicates that gross profit margin has improved in each of the past four years.</p>\n<p>Microsoft's 2020 gross profit margin also was more than double the S&amp;P 500's implied gross profit margin and nearly double that of Apple and Amazon.com Inc.</p>\n<p><b>P/E ratio</b></p>\n<p>The price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E ratio, is one of the favorite metrics of JonesTrading's O'Rourke. It is the price of the stock divided by earnings per share, gives investors a way to see what they're paying for each $1 on a company's bottom line, and to compare that cost over time and with a company's peers.</p>\n<p>To find it, click on the \"profile\" tab in a stock's quote page.</p>\n<p>For example, Google parent Alphabet Inc.'s stock&nbsp;(GOOGL) may at first glance appear to be a bit rich, given that it has advanced at triple the pace of an already booming S&amp;P 500 through the first eight months of 2021.</p>\n<p>In terms of P/E, Alphabet's could make the stock appear expensive, since it was about 6 percentage points above the implied P/E ratio for the S&amp;P 500.</p>\n<p>But despite the big gain in the stock price, Alphabet's P/E had declined by more than 2 percentage points since the end of 2020 as earnings have increased at a faster rate than price. Looking at it compared against other technology companies, it was several percentage points below Microsoft's and a little more than half that of Amazon's but a little above Apple's P/E.</p>\n<p>To chart the P/E, go to \"advanced chart\" and then within the \"lower charts\" pull-down menu, select \"P/E Ratio.\"</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/682c2646575b0581fe07d3602cc41cee\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MARKETWATCH, BIGCHARTS</span></p>\n<p><b>Price-to-sales ratio</b></p>\n<p>Price relative to sales is similar to the P/E ratio, but because it is based on the top line rather than earnings per share, the ratio can't be influenced by a change in the number of shares outstanding from share repurchases.</p>\n<p>\"The higher you go up on the income statement, the harder it is [for a company] to mess around,\" said Kingsview's Nolte.</p>\n<p><b>Return on invested capital</b></p>\n<p>Return on invested capital is calculated by dividing net operating profit, after tax, by invested capital. It's way to judge how well a company's management allocates capital to generate a return. That can be found under the \"profile\" tab on a quote page.</p>\n<p>For example, Apple's ROIC was a few percentage points above the S&amp;P 500's performance over the past 12 months, and nearly triple that of the 10-year Treasury yield.</p>\n<p>\"One of the most important [metrics I look at] is return on invested capital,\" National Securities' Hogan said. \"Anything more than 15% is spectacular.</p>\n<p><b>Short interest as a percent of float</b></p>\n<p>Short interest is the number of shares that have been bet by investors that the stock price will decline, while the percent of float is short interest divided by the number of shares publicly available for trade. That can be found under the \"overview\" tab.</p>\n<p>Short interest is a good way to gauge overall investors sentiment in a stock. It is often used as a contrarian indicator; the more short interest there is, the more shares that will have to be purchased to cover those shorts if prices rise enough for bears to abandon their bets or fall enough for bears to take profits.</p>\n<p>So a stock with a high relative short interest ratio and that is trading close to its 52-week high may have more potential for gains than a stock with a low short interest ratio trading near its 52-week low.</p>\n<p>There is also the potential of a \"short squeeze,\" for heavily shorted stocks, which include meme stocks AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.&nbsp;and GameStop Corp.</p>\n<p><b>Keep going</b></p>\n<p>There is a lot more on stock quote pages that can be very helpful in sizing up a company:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Board of directors, under the “profile” tab, gives a quick view of people making decisions for the company.</li>\n <li>Look at liquidity ratios, also under the “profile” tab. The current ratio is a measure of a company’s ability to pay short-term debt obligations; the quick ratio, also known as the acid-test ratio, provides a look at assets easily convertible to cash; and the cash ratio depicts a company’s ability to use available cash to pay off short-term debt.</li>\n <li>Charts, under the “charts” tab, provide an easy way to gauge a stock’s performance over time. The charts allow investors to change the frequency and type of display, while adding many technical studies such as moving averages, relative strength, volume and news density.</li>\n <li>The “financials” tab includes a look at the income statement and balance sheet over a five-year period. It also provides a list of a companies filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.</li>\n <li>A list of tradable stock option contracts can be found under the “options” tab, with all available maturities and strike prices, and prices for both bullish “call” options and bearish “put” options.</li>\n <li>Employee data under the “profile” tab includes the number of employees, revenue per employee and income per employee.</li>\n <li>Multiple valuation measures are under the “profile” tab, such as total debt to enterprise value, enterprise value to sales, price to Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization), price to book ratio and price to cash flow ratio.</li>\n <li>The most recent insider transactions are under the “profile” tab.</li>\n</ul>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These are the most important things to check on a stock's quote page before deciding whether to buy or sell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese are the most important things to check on a stock's quote page before deciding whether to buy or sell\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-07 08:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-are-the-most-important-things-to-check-on-a-stocks-quote-page-before-deciding-whether-to-buy-or-sell-11630783155?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Become a smarter investor by knowing these secrets\nMiramax/Courtesy Everett Collection\nThere's a lot more investors can glean from a MarketWatch stock quote page than just the price and the change ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-are-the-most-important-things-to-check-on-a-stocks-quote-page-before-deciding-whether-to-buy-or-sell-11630783155?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AAPL":"苹果","AMC":"AMC院线",".DJI":"道琼斯","TSLA":"特斯拉","AMZN":"亚马逊",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-are-the-most-important-things-to-check-on-a-stocks-quote-page-before-deciding-whether-to-buy-or-sell-11630783155?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2165880909","content_text":"Become a smarter investor by knowing these secrets\nMiramax/Courtesy Everett Collection\nThere's a lot more investors can glean from a MarketWatch stock quote page than just the price and the change from the previous session. In fact, price may be one of the least useful research data available.\nOf course, you may want to know what is driving a big change in the stock price. Type a company's ticker symbol or name into the search field on MarketWatch.com to get the stock page (also called a ticker page) and look under the \"overview\" tab for reports from MarketWatch and other Dow Jones publication as well as company news releases and reports from some other contributors.\nBut to become a smarter investor, you need to look at both the stock price and the underlying metrics used to evaluate a company and stock against both peers and over time.\nOne way to do that is by using an \"advanced\" or \"interactive\" chart, which can be found on the MarketWatch quote page. The charts can extend the time viewed to more than 10 years, and can overlay, or provide in a lower chart, a number of technical or fundamental metrics. It also lets you compare the moves to other stocks and indexes.\nHere are 10 things more important than price that are available to investors, listed in alphabetical order:\n52-week high and low\nA stock's 52-week high or low is a price range that helps an investor see where the stock is trading relative to how it has traded over the past year. It can be found under the \"overview\" tab in a quote page.\nAlthough some might view a stock trading closer to its low over the past year as relatively cheap, Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities Corp., said he would prefer to invest in a stock that is trading closer to its 52-week high than its 52-week low.\n\"I'm not looking at what the market is getting wrong, I'm looking at what the market is getting right,\" Hogan said. \"It's near its high for a reason.\"\nAnalysts' estimates for EPS and revenue\nMichael O'Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, likes to check the change in analyst expectations for full-year earnings per share and revenue, as that can provide a view on how Wall Street perceives the underlying strength of a company's business.\nThose and more can be found under the \"analyst estimates\" tab on a quote page.\nA look at the yearly numbers shows the EPS estimates for the current year as well as for the next two years, as compiled by FactSet, in both table form and as a chart. The page also shows how what a company reported on a quarterly basis compared with the average analyst EPS estimate, overall analyst ratings of a company and how the ratings have changed over the past three months, and the average stock price target and notable changes in ratings and targets.\nFor example, Facebook Inc.'s (FB) full-year EPS was expected to keep growing at a steady rate as of the start of the third quarter of 2021, and its reported quarterly EPS beat expectations in the previous four quarters.\nFacebook Inc. MARKETWATCH\nCompetitors\nIt's smart to compare a company's financial performance against its competitors when assessing its financial performance. Scroll to the bottom of the \"overview\" page to find that list -- companies in the same business and in some cases others in a similar broadly defined sector and within the same market-capitalization tier.\nDividend yield\nAlso on the \"overview\" page is the dividend yield, or the annual dividend rate per share divided by the stock price. It is best viewed relative to a company's peers, the broader stock market and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note.\nFor example, Microsoft Corp.'s dividend yield as of the end of August 2021 was a little over half that of the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield. However, the yield is above that of Apple Inc., the only other company with a larger market cap, and above the yield of the SPDR Technology Select Sector exchange-traded fund.\nMARKETWATCH, BIGCHARTS\nTo see if the company has consistently paid a regular dividend, select \"dividend\" under the \"events\" tab.\nFree cash flow\nFree cash flow is the cash generated from operations after expenses and capital investments. The more cash available to a company, the more it can spend to expand. It can be found under the \"financials\" tab, then click on the secondary \"cash flow\" tab.\nHow free cash flow changes over time is useful in judging the current strength of a company's business and its potential for growth, said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Investment Management.\nThe MarketWatch quote page provides a scale to see the change in free cash flow on an annual basis over the past five years or over the past five quarters.\nFor example, free cash flow was a key metric analysts used to evaluate General Electric Co., as the company recovered from years of financial distress. The quote page shows how FCF turned positive in 2019 after being negative the previous three years and that it stayed positive in 2020.\nGross profit margin\nGross profit margin, and the change over time, is another important measure of a company's profitability. That can be found under the \"financials\" tab on a quote page.\nGross profit margin is calculated by dividing gross income -- sales minus cost of goods sold (COGS) -- by sales. It should be viewed over time and relative to its peers.\nFor example, the year-over-year growth rate for Microsoft's revenue has been higher than the COGS growth rate the past four years, which indicates that gross profit margin has improved in each of the past four years.\nMicrosoft's 2020 gross profit margin also was more than double the S&P 500's implied gross profit margin and nearly double that of Apple and Amazon.com Inc.\nP/E ratio\nThe price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E ratio, is one of the favorite metrics of JonesTrading's O'Rourke. It is the price of the stock divided by earnings per share, gives investors a way to see what they're paying for each $1 on a company's bottom line, and to compare that cost over time and with a company's peers.\nTo find it, click on the \"profile\" tab in a stock's quote page.\nFor example, Google parent Alphabet Inc.'s stock (GOOGL) may at first glance appear to be a bit rich, given that it has advanced at triple the pace of an already booming S&P 500 through the first eight months of 2021.\nIn terms of P/E, Alphabet's could make the stock appear expensive, since it was about 6 percentage points above the implied P/E ratio for the S&P 500.\nBut despite the big gain in the stock price, Alphabet's P/E had declined by more than 2 percentage points since the end of 2020 as earnings have increased at a faster rate than price. Looking at it compared against other technology companies, it was several percentage points below Microsoft's and a little more than half that of Amazon's but a little above Apple's P/E.\nTo chart the P/E, go to \"advanced chart\" and then within the \"lower charts\" pull-down menu, select \"P/E Ratio.\"\nMARKETWATCH, BIGCHARTS\nPrice-to-sales ratio\nPrice relative to sales is similar to the P/E ratio, but because it is based on the top line rather than earnings per share, the ratio can't be influenced by a change in the number of shares outstanding from share repurchases.\n\"The higher you go up on the income statement, the harder it is [for a company] to mess around,\" said Kingsview's Nolte.\nReturn on invested capital\nReturn on invested capital is calculated by dividing net operating profit, after tax, by invested capital. It's way to judge how well a company's management allocates capital to generate a return. That can be found under the \"profile\" tab on a quote page.\nFor example, Apple's ROIC was a few percentage points above the S&P 500's performance over the past 12 months, and nearly triple that of the 10-year Treasury yield.\n\"One of the most important [metrics I look at] is return on invested capital,\" National Securities' Hogan said. \"Anything more than 15% is spectacular.\nShort interest as a percent of float\nShort interest is the number of shares that have been bet by investors that the stock price will decline, while the percent of float is short interest divided by the number of shares publicly available for trade. That can be found under the \"overview\" tab.\nShort interest is a good way to gauge overall investors sentiment in a stock. It is often used as a contrarian indicator; the more short interest there is, the more shares that will have to be purchased to cover those shorts if prices rise enough for bears to abandon their bets or fall enough for bears to take profits.\nSo a stock with a high relative short interest ratio and that is trading close to its 52-week high may have more potential for gains than a stock with a low short interest ratio trading near its 52-week low.\nThere is also the potential of a \"short squeeze,\" for heavily shorted stocks, which include meme stocks AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. and GameStop Corp.\nKeep going\nThere is a lot more on stock quote pages that can be very helpful in sizing up a company:\n\nBoard of directors, under the “profile” tab, gives a quick view of people making decisions for the company.\nLook at liquidity ratios, also under the “profile” tab. The current ratio is a measure of a company’s ability to pay short-term debt obligations; the quick ratio, also known as the acid-test ratio, provides a look at assets easily convertible to cash; and the cash ratio depicts a company’s ability to use available cash to pay off short-term debt.\nCharts, under the “charts” tab, provide an easy way to gauge a stock’s performance over time. The charts allow investors to change the frequency and type of display, while adding many technical studies such as moving averages, relative strength, volume and news density.\nThe “financials” tab includes a look at the income statement and balance sheet over a five-year period. It also provides a list of a companies filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.\nA list of tradable stock option contracts can be found under the “options” tab, with all available maturities and strike prices, and prices for both bullish “call” options and bearish “put” options.\nEmployee data under the “profile” tab includes the number of employees, revenue per employee and income per employee.\nMultiple valuation measures are under the “profile” tab, such as total debt to enterprise value, enterprise value to sales, price to Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization), price to book ratio and price to cash flow ratio.\nThe most recent insider transactions are under the “profile” tab.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":594,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":887678140,"gmtCreate":1632035723580,"gmtModify":1632803189282,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580565594783380","idStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noooo","listText":"Noooo","text":"Noooo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887678140","repostId":"1146170136","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146170136","pubTimestamp":1630576860,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146170136?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-02 18:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Reasons The Next Stock Bear Market And Recession Could Be The Worst Since The 1930s","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146170136","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe first reason we believe the next stock bear market and recession will be the worst sinc","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The first reason we believe the next stock bear market and recession will be the worst since the 1930s is due to extremely high asset valuations.</li>\n <li>The second reason is due to extraordinarily bullish investor sentiment.</li>\n <li>The third reason is due to weak economic fundamentals.</li>\n <li>The fourth reason is due to excessive debt levels.</li>\n <li>The fifth reason is due to limited policy options.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>With the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) at all-time highs and seemingly endless “free liquidity” being provided by the Fed, the last thing most investors can envision right now is a major bear market or recession - particularly ones that will be the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s!</p>\n<p>But the facts we will detail in this article show that is&nbsp;<i>highly likely</i>&nbsp;to be the case. This is an extraordinary statement, but we are living in extraordinary times! Investors need to understand the risks they are facing now in order to prepare and profit from them in the future.</p>\n<p>Here are the five key reasons we believe the next stock bear market and recession will be worse than the Great Recession of 2008-2009 (when the S&amp;P 500 fell 58% and it took about six years to recover), which will make it the worst since the 1930s (when the S&amp;P 500 fell 86% and it took about 25 years to recover):</p>\n<p><b>1. Extremely High Asset Valuations</b></p>\n<p>Informed investors know that we are currently in an “Everything Bubble” driven by massive and persistent central bank money creation. Virtually every major financial asset is overvalued and priced to deliver low - or even negative - long-term returns.</p>\n<p>For example, the Shiller P/E Ratio shown below is 30% higher than it was at the 1929 peak and is nearly as high as the all-time high in 2000. TheShiller P/E Ratiowas created by economist Robert Shiller and is calculated as the price of the S&amp;P 500 divided by the average past 10 years of earnings, adjusted for inflation. It attempts to smooth the cyclicality of earnings. Historically, high Shiller P/E Ratios have led to below-average long-term returns.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66f9a3f8fedee54d3a30a15b70138ab5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofShiller PE Ratio, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>Warren Buffett’s favorite valuation measure- and the one that best predicts future long-term stock market returns - is the Stock Market Capitalization To GDP Ratio, which is shown below. Based on this measure, stocks are trading 30% higher than the prior all-time high at the Tech Bubble peak of 2000! Stocks would have to fall over 60% for this ratio to return to the levels it reached at the stock market bottom in March 2009.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d270087f9958674d30bed139425fe08e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>It is not just stocks that are priced to deliver poor returns. US Treasury bills and bonds are trading at historically low interest rates not far above zero (and some countries have negative interest rates), assuring very low returns until maturity. Also, corporate bond yields relative to Treasury bond yields are at historically low levels.</p>\n<p>Real estate is also expensive, with REITs trading at historically low dividend yields. And as shown in the chart below of theS&amp;P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index, home prices are currently 27% higher than they were at the housing bubble peak of 2006!</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c011c579b31844dd761b260b1adb7600\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>Importantly, not only do high valuations lead to low long-term returns but they also usually lead to devastating bear markets on the path to those low long-term returns.</p>\n<p><b>2. Extraordinarily Bullish Investor Sentiment</b></p>\n<p>Along with high asset valuations, investor sentiment is at sky-high levels of bullishness. When investors are very bullish, that is a bearish contrarian indicator.</p>\n<p>The best investor sentiment indicators show where investors are actually putting their hard-earned money in anticipation of making a profit, not just what they say their “mood” is. For sentiment, we focus on investor<i>actions</i>, not<i>words</i>.</p>\n<p>One excellent sentiment indicator is the Equity Put/Call Ratio. When investors are bearish, they buy Put options in anticipation of profiting from a fall in stock prices. When they are bullish, they buy Call options in anticipation of profiting from a rise in stock prices. When the ratio of Puts to Calls is very high, that shows investors are very bearish, which is a bullish contrarian indicator. Conversely, when the ratio of Puts to Calls is very low, that shows investors are very bullish, which is a bearish contrarian indicator.</p>\n<p>The chart below shows the Equity Put/Call Ratio, using the 100-day moving average to reduce short-term noise in this indicator. Over the past year, it has fallen to extremely low levels - well below those seen at the stock market peak in 2007.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f4ac510219add2cccd009014b44162b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofStockCharts.com, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>The next chart is the Rydex Asset Ratio, which is the ratio of investor assets in all Rydex bear and money market funds (bearish positioning) compared to investor assets in all Rydex bull funds (bullish positioning). As you can see, investors have been very bullishly positioned in US stocks for over seven years! The last time investors approached this level of bullishness was around the Tech Bubble peak of 2000.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30902a5fd01f363fd7dc95147f34735a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofStockCharts.com, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>When the majority of investors are already very bullish and “all in”, there is no one left to buy and lots of potential sellers when something changes, as it always does. Most investors will be shocked when their bullish expectations meet the harsh reality of a major bear market.</p>\n<p><b>3. Weak Economic Fundamentals</b></p>\n<p>The US economy is not as strong as it used to be. That is certainly true in the wake of the Covid pandemic, but it has also been true for the past two decades. All of the taxes, regulations and other government interventions in the economy in recent decades have created a weaker and more fragile economy that will make the next recession even worse.</p>\n<p>The chart below of Industrial Production shows it is only 8% higher than at the 2000 peak and is 1% lower than at the 2007 peak. It has nearly flatlined over the past two decades. That is much weaker than the 3.9% annual growth in Industrial Production from 1920 to 2000.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3b30a4514e3707d1aaaf03a81dd5d3d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>Total Nonfarm Employment, shown below, grew at a 2.5% annual rate from 1940 to 2000. Similar to Industrial Production, Employment has nearly flatlined over the past two decades. It has increased only 10% since the 2000 peak and only 6% since the 2007 peak. Sadly, it is still nearly 4% below the February 2020 peak.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c7778bd8479e8800718b3abdcdf0dfb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p><b>4. Excessive Debt Levels</b></p>\n<p>The chart below shows the US Total Debt To GDP Ratio is near recent all-time highs at 3.8 times (or 380%), even higher than the high levels preceding the Great Recession. Global Debt To GDP is also at record high levels over 300%, as is US Federal Debt To GDP at 125%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/563808ddc51f6a6b821f4abde5f62d17\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"242\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>Excessive debt has been the problem with every financial crisis in history, due to prior money creation out of thin air. So the next one promises to be one for the history books given these unprecedented high debt levels. Debt liquidation and defaults will lead to deflation, particularly for asset prices, as we saw in the Great Recession and even more so in the Great Depression.</p>\n<p><b>5. Limited Policy Options</b></p>\n<p>The primary “bull case” for the stock market and economy over the past 12 years since the Great Recession ended has been “free liquidity” provided in seemingly endless amounts by the Federal Reserve. It is almost as though money really does grow on trees!</p>\n<p>But money created out of thin air does not create new goods and services that improve living standards. If it did, a place likeZimbabwewould be the wealthiest country in the world. However, newly created money can flow into financial assets, which helps explain why valuation levels are so high.</p>\n<p>The graph below shows “Austrian” Money Supply (AMS), the best measure of money supply that is consistent withthis Austrian School of Economics definition(although it no longer includes traveler’s checks, which have been discontinued in the Fed’s database due to limited use these days). AMS is up 40% since February 2020 and is up an astounding 225% since the Great Recession ended in June 2009!</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3844fc699c58ff48effcc5918378bfcd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>This is well above the money supply growth that drove the Roaring ‘20s and ultimately led to the Great Depression of the 1930s, as detailed in economist Murray N. Rothbard’s definitive history of that period in his book<i>America’s Great Depression</i>. In this book, heexplained the cause of the boom and bust business cycle:</p>\n<p><i>The “boom-bust” cycle is generated by monetary intervention in the market, specifically bank credit expansion to business…[B]ank credit expansion sets into motion the business cycle in all its phases: the inflationary boom, marked by expansion of the money supply and by malinvestment; the crisis, which arrives when credit expansion ceases and malinvestments become evident; and the depression recovery, the necessary adjustment process by which the economy returns to the most efficient ways of satisfying consumer desires.</i></p>\n<p>All this money creation has enabled the Fed to target theFederal Funds Rateat only 0.1%, as shown below. While that is above the negative interest rates prevailing in some countries, it doesn’t leave much room for the Fed to cut rates to try to prevent a recession, particularly with inflation at over 5% now. And as the chart shows, the Fed cut rates throughout the prior three recessions and bear markets and was not able to stop them, since the market is bigger than the Fed. This leaves the stock market and economy very vulnerable in the next downturn, with potentially no “safety nets” to protect them.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62449341ea09ce506389102e838a6cf4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>Lastly, for the Keynesian economists who still believe the dogma that Federal budget deficits can prevent a recession - despite any evidence or logical theory to support it - the current Federal Budget Surplus/Deficit To GDP Ratio of -15% is the worst since World War II, as shown below. Given record-high government debt levels and deficits, how much more deficit spending will bond investors be willing to finance? And what good will it do, since deficits did not prevent the Great Recession?</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26c9f09598045b1c92a037cc0e326f86\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p><b>Implications For Investors</b></p>\n<p>There is much more that can be said to prove our case, but hopefully, the facts provided in this article are sufficient for investors to understand the current risks in financial assets and the economy.</p>\n<p>While the exact timing of the next bear market and recession is unknown and there are currently no signs of it with stocks at all-time highs, now is the time for investors to seek out information on how to identify the tell-tale signs of bear markets and how to profit from them, rather than being decimated by them, as the majority of investors, unfortunately, will be.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Reasons The Next Stock Bear Market And Recession Could Be The Worst Since The 1930s\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-02 18:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452860-5-reasons-the-next-stock-bear-market-and-recession-could-be-the-worst-since-the-1930s><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe first reason we believe the next stock bear market and recession will be the worst since the 1930s is due to extremely high asset valuations.\nThe second reason is due to extraordinarily ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452860-5-reasons-the-next-stock-bear-market-and-recession-could-be-the-worst-since-the-1930s\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452860-5-reasons-the-next-stock-bear-market-and-recession-could-be-the-worst-since-the-1930s","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1146170136","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe first reason we believe the next stock bear market and recession will be the worst since the 1930s is due to extremely high asset valuations.\nThe second reason is due to extraordinarily bullish investor sentiment.\nThe third reason is due to weak economic fundamentals.\nThe fourth reason is due to excessive debt levels.\nThe fifth reason is due to limited policy options.\n\nWith the S&P 500 (SPY) at all-time highs and seemingly endless “free liquidity” being provided by the Fed, the last thing most investors can envision right now is a major bear market or recession - particularly ones that will be the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s!\nBut the facts we will detail in this article show that is highly likely to be the case. This is an extraordinary statement, but we are living in extraordinary times! Investors need to understand the risks they are facing now in order to prepare and profit from them in the future.\nHere are the five key reasons we believe the next stock bear market and recession will be worse than the Great Recession of 2008-2009 (when the S&P 500 fell 58% and it took about six years to recover), which will make it the worst since the 1930s (when the S&P 500 fell 86% and it took about 25 years to recover):\n1. Extremely High Asset Valuations\nInformed investors know that we are currently in an “Everything Bubble” driven by massive and persistent central bank money creation. Virtually every major financial asset is overvalued and priced to deliver low - or even negative - long-term returns.\nFor example, the Shiller P/E Ratio shown below is 30% higher than it was at the 1929 peak and is nearly as high as the all-time high in 2000. TheShiller P/E Ratiowas created by economist Robert Shiller and is calculated as the price of the S&P 500 divided by the average past 10 years of earnings, adjusted for inflation. It attempts to smooth the cyclicality of earnings. Historically, high Shiller P/E Ratios have led to below-average long-term returns.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofShiller PE Ratio, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nWarren Buffett’s favorite valuation measure- and the one that best predicts future long-term stock market returns - is the Stock Market Capitalization To GDP Ratio, which is shown below. Based on this measure, stocks are trading 30% higher than the prior all-time high at the Tech Bubble peak of 2000! Stocks would have to fall over 60% for this ratio to return to the levels it reached at the stock market bottom in March 2009.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nIt is not just stocks that are priced to deliver poor returns. US Treasury bills and bonds are trading at historically low interest rates not far above zero (and some countries have negative interest rates), assuring very low returns until maturity. Also, corporate bond yields relative to Treasury bond yields are at historically low levels.\nReal estate is also expensive, with REITs trading at historically low dividend yields. And as shown in the chart below of theS&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index, home prices are currently 27% higher than they were at the housing bubble peak of 2006!\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nImportantly, not only do high valuations lead to low long-term returns but they also usually lead to devastating bear markets on the path to those low long-term returns.\n2. Extraordinarily Bullish Investor Sentiment\nAlong with high asset valuations, investor sentiment is at sky-high levels of bullishness. When investors are very bullish, that is a bearish contrarian indicator.\nThe best investor sentiment indicators show where investors are actually putting their hard-earned money in anticipation of making a profit, not just what they say their “mood” is. For sentiment, we focus on investoractions, notwords.\nOne excellent sentiment indicator is the Equity Put/Call Ratio. When investors are bearish, they buy Put options in anticipation of profiting from a fall in stock prices. When they are bullish, they buy Call options in anticipation of profiting from a rise in stock prices. When the ratio of Puts to Calls is very high, that shows investors are very bearish, which is a bullish contrarian indicator. Conversely, when the ratio of Puts to Calls is very low, that shows investors are very bullish, which is a bearish contrarian indicator.\nThe chart below shows the Equity Put/Call Ratio, using the 100-day moving average to reduce short-term noise in this indicator. Over the past year, it has fallen to extremely low levels - well below those seen at the stock market peak in 2007.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofStockCharts.com, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nThe next chart is the Rydex Asset Ratio, which is the ratio of investor assets in all Rydex bear and money market funds (bearish positioning) compared to investor assets in all Rydex bull funds (bullish positioning). As you can see, investors have been very bullishly positioned in US stocks for over seven years! The last time investors approached this level of bullishness was around the Tech Bubble peak of 2000.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofStockCharts.com, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nWhen the majority of investors are already very bullish and “all in”, there is no one left to buy and lots of potential sellers when something changes, as it always does. Most investors will be shocked when their bullish expectations meet the harsh reality of a major bear market.\n3. Weak Economic Fundamentals\nThe US economy is not as strong as it used to be. That is certainly true in the wake of the Covid pandemic, but it has also been true for the past two decades. All of the taxes, regulations and other government interventions in the economy in recent decades have created a weaker and more fragile economy that will make the next recession even worse.\nThe chart below of Industrial Production shows it is only 8% higher than at the 2000 peak and is 1% lower than at the 2007 peak. It has nearly flatlined over the past two decades. That is much weaker than the 3.9% annual growth in Industrial Production from 1920 to 2000.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nTotal Nonfarm Employment, shown below, grew at a 2.5% annual rate from 1940 to 2000. Similar to Industrial Production, Employment has nearly flatlined over the past two decades. It has increased only 10% since the 2000 peak and only 6% since the 2007 peak. Sadly, it is still nearly 4% below the February 2020 peak.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\n4. Excessive Debt Levels\nThe chart below shows the US Total Debt To GDP Ratio is near recent all-time highs at 3.8 times (or 380%), even higher than the high levels preceding the Great Recession. Global Debt To GDP is also at record high levels over 300%, as is US Federal Debt To GDP at 125%.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nExcessive debt has been the problem with every financial crisis in history, due to prior money creation out of thin air. So the next one promises to be one for the history books given these unprecedented high debt levels. Debt liquidation and defaults will lead to deflation, particularly for asset prices, as we saw in the Great Recession and even more so in the Great Depression.\n5. Limited Policy Options\nThe primary “bull case” for the stock market and economy over the past 12 years since the Great Recession ended has been “free liquidity” provided in seemingly endless amounts by the Federal Reserve. It is almost as though money really does grow on trees!\nBut money created out of thin air does not create new goods and services that improve living standards. If it did, a place likeZimbabwewould be the wealthiest country in the world. However, newly created money can flow into financial assets, which helps explain why valuation levels are so high.\nThe graph below shows “Austrian” Money Supply (AMS), the best measure of money supply that is consistent withthis Austrian School of Economics definition(although it no longer includes traveler’s checks, which have been discontinued in the Fed’s database due to limited use these days). AMS is up 40% since February 2020 and is up an astounding 225% since the Great Recession ended in June 2009!\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nThis is well above the money supply growth that drove the Roaring ‘20s and ultimately led to the Great Depression of the 1930s, as detailed in economist Murray N. Rothbard’s definitive history of that period in his bookAmerica’s Great Depression. In this book, heexplained the cause of the boom and bust business cycle:\nThe “boom-bust” cycle is generated by monetary intervention in the market, specifically bank credit expansion to business…[B]ank credit expansion sets into motion the business cycle in all its phases: the inflationary boom, marked by expansion of the money supply and by malinvestment; the crisis, which arrives when credit expansion ceases and malinvestments become evident; and the depression recovery, the necessary adjustment process by which the economy returns to the most efficient ways of satisfying consumer desires.\nAll this money creation has enabled the Fed to target theFederal Funds Rateat only 0.1%, as shown below. While that is above the negative interest rates prevailing in some countries, it doesn’t leave much room for the Fed to cut rates to try to prevent a recession, particularly with inflation at over 5% now. And as the chart shows, the Fed cut rates throughout the prior three recessions and bear markets and was not able to stop them, since the market is bigger than the Fed. This leaves the stock market and economy very vulnerable in the next downturn, with potentially no “safety nets” to protect them.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nLastly, for the Keynesian economists who still believe the dogma that Federal budget deficits can prevent a recession - despite any evidence or logical theory to support it - the current Federal Budget Surplus/Deficit To GDP Ratio of -15% is the worst since World War II, as shown below. Given record-high government debt levels and deficits, how much more deficit spending will bond investors be willing to finance? And what good will it do, since deficits did not prevent the Great Recession?\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nImplications For Investors\nThere is much more that can be said to prove our case, but hopefully, the facts provided in this article are sufficient for investors to understand the current risks in financial assets and the economy.\nWhile the exact timing of the next bear market and recession is unknown and there are currently no signs of it with stocks at all-time highs, now is the time for investors to seek out information on how to identify the tell-tale signs of bear markets and how to profit from them, rather than being decimated by them, as the majority of investors, unfortunately, will be.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817717829,"gmtCreate":1630988261261,"gmtModify":1631890704069,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580565594783380","idStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yup","listText":"Yup","text":"Yup","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817717829","repostId":"2165880909","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2165880909","pubTimestamp":1630973976,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2165880909?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 08:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These are the most important things to check on a stock's quote page before deciding whether to buy or sell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165880909","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Become a smarter investor by knowing these secrets\nMiramax/Courtesy Everett Collection\nThere's a lot","content":"<p>Become a smarter investor by knowing these secrets</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bd10c4b54d3dae1621221f7903db5c0\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Miramax/Courtesy Everett Collection</span></p>\n<p>There's a lot more investors can glean from a MarketWatch stock quote page than just the price and the change from the previous session. In fact, price may be one of the least useful research data available.</p>\n<p>Of course, you may want to know what is driving a big change in the stock price. Type a company's ticker symbol or name into the search field on MarketWatch.com to get the stock page (also called a ticker page) and look under the \"overview\" tab for reports from MarketWatch and other Dow Jones publication as well as company news releases and reports from some other contributors.</p>\n<p>But to become a smarter investor, you need to look at both the stock price and the underlying metrics used to evaluate a company and stock against both peers and over time.</p>\n<p>One way to do that is by using an \"advanced\" or \"interactive\" chart, which can be found on the MarketWatch quote page. The charts can extend the time viewed to more than 10 years, and can overlay, or provide in a lower chart, a number of technical or fundamental metrics. It also lets you compare the moves to other stocks and indexes.</p>\n<p><b>Here are 10 things more important than price that are available to investors, listed in alphabetical order:</b></p>\n<p><b>52-week high and low</b></p>\n<p>A stock's 52-week high or low is a price range that helps an investor see where the stock is trading relative to how it has traded over the past year. It can be found under the \"overview\" tab in a quote page.</p>\n<p>Although some might view a stock trading closer to its low over the past year as relatively cheap, Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities Corp., said he would prefer to invest in a stock that is trading closer to its 52-week high than its 52-week low.</p>\n<p>\"I'm not looking at what the market is getting wrong, I'm looking at what the market is getting right,\" Hogan said. \"It's near its high for a reason.\"</p>\n<p><b>Analysts' estimates for EPS and revenue</b></p>\n<p>Michael O'Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, likes to check the change in analyst expectations for full-year earnings per share and revenue, as that can provide a view on how Wall Street perceives the underlying strength of a company's business.</p>\n<p>Those and more can be found under the \"analyst estimates\" tab on a quote page.</p>\n<p>A look at the yearly numbers shows the EPS estimates for the current year as well as for the next two years, as compiled by FactSet, in both table form and as a chart. The page also shows how what a company reported on a quarterly basis compared with the average analyst EPS estimate, overall analyst ratings of a company and how the ratings have changed over the past three months, and the average stock price target and notable changes in ratings and targets.</p>\n<p>For example, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a> Inc.'s (FB) full-year EPS was expected to keep growing at a steady rate as of the start of the third quarter of 2021, and its reported quarterly EPS beat expectations in the previous four quarters.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50656942d689198af3b07d9daf23f6aa\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Facebook Inc. MARKETWATCH</span></p>\n<p><b>Competitors</b></p>\n<p>It's smart to compare a company's financial performance against its competitors when assessing its financial performance. Scroll to the bottom of the \"overview\" page to find that list -- companies in the same business and in some cases others in a similar broadly defined sector and within the same market-capitalization tier.</p>\n<p><b>Dividend yield</b></p>\n<p>Also on the \"overview\" page is the dividend yield, or the annual dividend rate per share divided by the stock price. It is best viewed relative to a company's peers, the broader stock market and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note.</p>\n<p>For example, Microsoft Corp.'s&nbsp;dividend yield as of the end of August 2021 was a little over half that of the S&amp;P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield. However, the yield is above that of Apple Inc., the only other company with a larger market cap, and above the yield of the SPDR Technology Select Sector exchange-traded fund.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd61d5b4cd852aa306853f533c4ce6e9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MARKETWATCH, BIGCHARTS</span></p>\n<p>To see if the company has consistently paid a regular dividend, select \"dividend\" under the \"events\" tab.</p>\n<p><b>Free cash flow</b></p>\n<p>Free cash flow is the cash generated from operations after expenses and capital investments. The more cash available to a company, the more it can spend to expand. It can be found under the \"financials\" tab, then click on the secondary \"cash flow\" tab.</p>\n<p>How free cash flow changes over time is useful in judging the current strength of a company's business and its potential for growth, said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Investment Management.</p>\n<p>The MarketWatch quote page provides a scale to see the change in free cash flow on an annual basis over the past five years or over the past five quarters.</p>\n<p>For example, free cash flow&nbsp;was a key metric analysts used to evaluate General Electric Co., as the company recovered from years of financial distress. The quote page shows how FCF turned positive in 2019 after being negative the previous three years and that it stayed positive in 2020.</p>\n<p><b>Gross profit margin</b></p>\n<p>Gross profit margin, and the change over time, is another important measure of a company's profitability. That can be found under the \"financials\" tab on a quote page.</p>\n<p>Gross profit margin is calculated by dividing gross income -- sales minus cost of goods sold (COGS) -- by sales. It should be viewed over time and relative to its peers.</p>\n<p>For example, the year-over-year growth rate for Microsoft's revenue has been higher than the COGS growth rate the past four years, which indicates that gross profit margin has improved in each of the past four years.</p>\n<p>Microsoft's 2020 gross profit margin also was more than double the S&amp;P 500's implied gross profit margin and nearly double that of Apple and Amazon.com Inc.</p>\n<p><b>P/E ratio</b></p>\n<p>The price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E ratio, is one of the favorite metrics of JonesTrading's O'Rourke. It is the price of the stock divided by earnings per share, gives investors a way to see what they're paying for each $1 on a company's bottom line, and to compare that cost over time and with a company's peers.</p>\n<p>To find it, click on the \"profile\" tab in a stock's quote page.</p>\n<p>For example, Google parent Alphabet Inc.'s stock&nbsp;(GOOGL) may at first glance appear to be a bit rich, given that it has advanced at triple the pace of an already booming S&amp;P 500 through the first eight months of 2021.</p>\n<p>In terms of P/E, Alphabet's could make the stock appear expensive, since it was about 6 percentage points above the implied P/E ratio for the S&amp;P 500.</p>\n<p>But despite the big gain in the stock price, Alphabet's P/E had declined by more than 2 percentage points since the end of 2020 as earnings have increased at a faster rate than price. Looking at it compared against other technology companies, it was several percentage points below Microsoft's and a little more than half that of Amazon's but a little above Apple's P/E.</p>\n<p>To chart the P/E, go to \"advanced chart\" and then within the \"lower charts\" pull-down menu, select \"P/E Ratio.\"</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/682c2646575b0581fe07d3602cc41cee\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MARKETWATCH, BIGCHARTS</span></p>\n<p><b>Price-to-sales ratio</b></p>\n<p>Price relative to sales is similar to the P/E ratio, but because it is based on the top line rather than earnings per share, the ratio can't be influenced by a change in the number of shares outstanding from share repurchases.</p>\n<p>\"The higher you go up on the income statement, the harder it is [for a company] to mess around,\" said Kingsview's Nolte.</p>\n<p><b>Return on invested capital</b></p>\n<p>Return on invested capital is calculated by dividing net operating profit, after tax, by invested capital. It's way to judge how well a company's management allocates capital to generate a return. That can be found under the \"profile\" tab on a quote page.</p>\n<p>For example, Apple's ROIC was a few percentage points above the S&amp;P 500's performance over the past 12 months, and nearly triple that of the 10-year Treasury yield.</p>\n<p>\"One of the most important [metrics I look at] is return on invested capital,\" National Securities' Hogan said. \"Anything more than 15% is spectacular.</p>\n<p><b>Short interest as a percent of float</b></p>\n<p>Short interest is the number of shares that have been bet by investors that the stock price will decline, while the percent of float is short interest divided by the number of shares publicly available for trade. That can be found under the \"overview\" tab.</p>\n<p>Short interest is a good way to gauge overall investors sentiment in a stock. It is often used as a contrarian indicator; the more short interest there is, the more shares that will have to be purchased to cover those shorts if prices rise enough for bears to abandon their bets or fall enough for bears to take profits.</p>\n<p>So a stock with a high relative short interest ratio and that is trading close to its 52-week high may have more potential for gains than a stock with a low short interest ratio trading near its 52-week low.</p>\n<p>There is also the potential of a \"short squeeze,\" for heavily shorted stocks, which include meme stocks AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.&nbsp;and GameStop Corp.</p>\n<p><b>Keep going</b></p>\n<p>There is a lot more on stock quote pages that can be very helpful in sizing up a company:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Board of directors, under the “profile” tab, gives a quick view of people making decisions for the company.</li>\n <li>Look at liquidity ratios, also under the “profile” tab. The current ratio is a measure of a company’s ability to pay short-term debt obligations; the quick ratio, also known as the acid-test ratio, provides a look at assets easily convertible to cash; and the cash ratio depicts a company’s ability to use available cash to pay off short-term debt.</li>\n <li>Charts, under the “charts” tab, provide an easy way to gauge a stock’s performance over time. The charts allow investors to change the frequency and type of display, while adding many technical studies such as moving averages, relative strength, volume and news density.</li>\n <li>The “financials” tab includes a look at the income statement and balance sheet over a five-year period. It also provides a list of a companies filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.</li>\n <li>A list of tradable stock option contracts can be found under the “options” tab, with all available maturities and strike prices, and prices for both bullish “call” options and bearish “put” options.</li>\n <li>Employee data under the “profile” tab includes the number of employees, revenue per employee and income per employee.</li>\n <li>Multiple valuation measures are under the “profile” tab, such as total debt to enterprise value, enterprise value to sales, price to Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization), price to book ratio and price to cash flow ratio.</li>\n <li>The most recent insider transactions are under the “profile” tab.</li>\n</ul>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These are the most important things to check on a stock's quote page before deciding whether to buy or sell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese are the most important things to check on a stock's quote page before deciding whether to buy or sell\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-07 08:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-are-the-most-important-things-to-check-on-a-stocks-quote-page-before-deciding-whether-to-buy-or-sell-11630783155?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Become a smarter investor by knowing these secrets\nMiramax/Courtesy Everett Collection\nThere's a lot more investors can glean from a MarketWatch stock quote page than just the price and the change ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-are-the-most-important-things-to-check-on-a-stocks-quote-page-before-deciding-whether-to-buy-or-sell-11630783155?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AAPL":"苹果","AMC":"AMC院线",".DJI":"道琼斯","TSLA":"特斯拉","AMZN":"亚马逊",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-are-the-most-important-things-to-check-on-a-stocks-quote-page-before-deciding-whether-to-buy-or-sell-11630783155?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2165880909","content_text":"Become a smarter investor by knowing these secrets\nMiramax/Courtesy Everett Collection\nThere's a lot more investors can glean from a MarketWatch stock quote page than just the price and the change from the previous session. In fact, price may be one of the least useful research data available.\nOf course, you may want to know what is driving a big change in the stock price. Type a company's ticker symbol or name into the search field on MarketWatch.com to get the stock page (also called a ticker page) and look under the \"overview\" tab for reports from MarketWatch and other Dow Jones publication as well as company news releases and reports from some other contributors.\nBut to become a smarter investor, you need to look at both the stock price and the underlying metrics used to evaluate a company and stock against both peers and over time.\nOne way to do that is by using an \"advanced\" or \"interactive\" chart, which can be found on the MarketWatch quote page. The charts can extend the time viewed to more than 10 years, and can overlay, or provide in a lower chart, a number of technical or fundamental metrics. It also lets you compare the moves to other stocks and indexes.\nHere are 10 things more important than price that are available to investors, listed in alphabetical order:\n52-week high and low\nA stock's 52-week high or low is a price range that helps an investor see where the stock is trading relative to how it has traded over the past year. It can be found under the \"overview\" tab in a quote page.\nAlthough some might view a stock trading closer to its low over the past year as relatively cheap, Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities Corp., said he would prefer to invest in a stock that is trading closer to its 52-week high than its 52-week low.\n\"I'm not looking at what the market is getting wrong, I'm looking at what the market is getting right,\" Hogan said. \"It's near its high for a reason.\"\nAnalysts' estimates for EPS and revenue\nMichael O'Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, likes to check the change in analyst expectations for full-year earnings per share and revenue, as that can provide a view on how Wall Street perceives the underlying strength of a company's business.\nThose and more can be found under the \"analyst estimates\" tab on a quote page.\nA look at the yearly numbers shows the EPS estimates for the current year as well as for the next two years, as compiled by FactSet, in both table form and as a chart. The page also shows how what a company reported on a quarterly basis compared with the average analyst EPS estimate, overall analyst ratings of a company and how the ratings have changed over the past three months, and the average stock price target and notable changes in ratings and targets.\nFor example, Facebook Inc.'s (FB) full-year EPS was expected to keep growing at a steady rate as of the start of the third quarter of 2021, and its reported quarterly EPS beat expectations in the previous four quarters.\nFacebook Inc. MARKETWATCH\nCompetitors\nIt's smart to compare a company's financial performance against its competitors when assessing its financial performance. Scroll to the bottom of the \"overview\" page to find that list -- companies in the same business and in some cases others in a similar broadly defined sector and within the same market-capitalization tier.\nDividend yield\nAlso on the \"overview\" page is the dividend yield, or the annual dividend rate per share divided by the stock price. It is best viewed relative to a company's peers, the broader stock market and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note.\nFor example, Microsoft Corp.'s dividend yield as of the end of August 2021 was a little over half that of the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield. However, the yield is above that of Apple Inc., the only other company with a larger market cap, and above the yield of the SPDR Technology Select Sector exchange-traded fund.\nMARKETWATCH, BIGCHARTS\nTo see if the company has consistently paid a regular dividend, select \"dividend\" under the \"events\" tab.\nFree cash flow\nFree cash flow is the cash generated from operations after expenses and capital investments. The more cash available to a company, the more it can spend to expand. It can be found under the \"financials\" tab, then click on the secondary \"cash flow\" tab.\nHow free cash flow changes over time is useful in judging the current strength of a company's business and its potential for growth, said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Investment Management.\nThe MarketWatch quote page provides a scale to see the change in free cash flow on an annual basis over the past five years or over the past five quarters.\nFor example, free cash flow was a key metric analysts used to evaluate General Electric Co., as the company recovered from years of financial distress. The quote page shows how FCF turned positive in 2019 after being negative the previous three years and that it stayed positive in 2020.\nGross profit margin\nGross profit margin, and the change over time, is another important measure of a company's profitability. That can be found under the \"financials\" tab on a quote page.\nGross profit margin is calculated by dividing gross income -- sales minus cost of goods sold (COGS) -- by sales. It should be viewed over time and relative to its peers.\nFor example, the year-over-year growth rate for Microsoft's revenue has been higher than the COGS growth rate the past four years, which indicates that gross profit margin has improved in each of the past four years.\nMicrosoft's 2020 gross profit margin also was more than double the S&P 500's implied gross profit margin and nearly double that of Apple and Amazon.com Inc.\nP/E ratio\nThe price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E ratio, is one of the favorite metrics of JonesTrading's O'Rourke. It is the price of the stock divided by earnings per share, gives investors a way to see what they're paying for each $1 on a company's bottom line, and to compare that cost over time and with a company's peers.\nTo find it, click on the \"profile\" tab in a stock's quote page.\nFor example, Google parent Alphabet Inc.'s stock (GOOGL) may at first glance appear to be a bit rich, given that it has advanced at triple the pace of an already booming S&P 500 through the first eight months of 2021.\nIn terms of P/E, Alphabet's could make the stock appear expensive, since it was about 6 percentage points above the implied P/E ratio for the S&P 500.\nBut despite the big gain in the stock price, Alphabet's P/E had declined by more than 2 percentage points since the end of 2020 as earnings have increased at a faster rate than price. Looking at it compared against other technology companies, it was several percentage points below Microsoft's and a little more than half that of Amazon's but a little above Apple's P/E.\nTo chart the P/E, go to \"advanced chart\" and then within the \"lower charts\" pull-down menu, select \"P/E Ratio.\"\nMARKETWATCH, BIGCHARTS\nPrice-to-sales ratio\nPrice relative to sales is similar to the P/E ratio, but because it is based on the top line rather than earnings per share, the ratio can't be influenced by a change in the number of shares outstanding from share repurchases.\n\"The higher you go up on the income statement, the harder it is [for a company] to mess around,\" said Kingsview's Nolte.\nReturn on invested capital\nReturn on invested capital is calculated by dividing net operating profit, after tax, by invested capital. It's way to judge how well a company's management allocates capital to generate a return. That can be found under the \"profile\" tab on a quote page.\nFor example, Apple's ROIC was a few percentage points above the S&P 500's performance over the past 12 months, and nearly triple that of the 10-year Treasury yield.\n\"One of the most important [metrics I look at] is return on invested capital,\" National Securities' Hogan said. \"Anything more than 15% is spectacular.\nShort interest as a percent of float\nShort interest is the number of shares that have been bet by investors that the stock price will decline, while the percent of float is short interest divided by the number of shares publicly available for trade. That can be found under the \"overview\" tab.\nShort interest is a good way to gauge overall investors sentiment in a stock. It is often used as a contrarian indicator; the more short interest there is, the more shares that will have to be purchased to cover those shorts if prices rise enough for bears to abandon their bets or fall enough for bears to take profits.\nSo a stock with a high relative short interest ratio and that is trading close to its 52-week high may have more potential for gains than a stock with a low short interest ratio trading near its 52-week low.\nThere is also the potential of a \"short squeeze,\" for heavily shorted stocks, which include meme stocks AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. and GameStop Corp.\nKeep going\nThere is a lot more on stock quote pages that can be very helpful in sizing up a company:\n\nBoard of directors, under the “profile” tab, gives a quick view of people making decisions for the company.\nLook at liquidity ratios, also under the “profile” tab. The current ratio is a measure of a company’s ability to pay short-term debt obligations; the quick ratio, also known as the acid-test ratio, provides a look at assets easily convertible to cash; and the cash ratio depicts a company’s ability to use available cash to pay off short-term debt.\nCharts, under the “charts” tab, provide an easy way to gauge a stock’s performance over time. The charts allow investors to change the frequency and type of display, while adding many technical studies such as moving averages, relative strength, volume and news density.\nThe “financials” tab includes a look at the income statement and balance sheet over a five-year period. It also provides a list of a companies filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.\nA list of tradable stock option contracts can be found under the “options” tab, with all available maturities and strike prices, and prices for both bullish “call” options and bearish “put” options.\nEmployee data under the “profile” tab includes the number of employees, revenue per employee and income per employee.\nMultiple valuation measures are under the “profile” tab, such as total debt to enterprise value, enterprise value to sales, price to Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization), price to book ratio and price to cash flow ratio.\nThe most recent insider transactions are under the “profile” tab.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812697632,"gmtCreate":1630580445526,"gmtModify":1631890704070,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580565594783380","idStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No god no please no!!","listText":"No god no please no!!","text":"No god no please no!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812697632","repostId":"1146170136","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146170136","pubTimestamp":1630576860,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146170136?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-02 18:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Reasons The Next Stock Bear Market And Recession Could Be The Worst Since The 1930s","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146170136","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe first reason we believe the next stock bear market and recession will be the worst sinc","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The first reason we believe the next stock bear market and recession will be the worst since the 1930s is due to extremely high asset valuations.</li>\n <li>The second reason is due to extraordinarily bullish investor sentiment.</li>\n <li>The third reason is due to weak economic fundamentals.</li>\n <li>The fourth reason is due to excessive debt levels.</li>\n <li>The fifth reason is due to limited policy options.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>With the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) at all-time highs and seemingly endless “free liquidity” being provided by the Fed, the last thing most investors can envision right now is a major bear market or recession - particularly ones that will be the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s!</p>\n<p>But the facts we will detail in this article show that is&nbsp;<i>highly likely</i>&nbsp;to be the case. This is an extraordinary statement, but we are living in extraordinary times! Investors need to understand the risks they are facing now in order to prepare and profit from them in the future.</p>\n<p>Here are the five key reasons we believe the next stock bear market and recession will be worse than the Great Recession of 2008-2009 (when the S&amp;P 500 fell 58% and it took about six years to recover), which will make it the worst since the 1930s (when the S&amp;P 500 fell 86% and it took about 25 years to recover):</p>\n<p><b>1. Extremely High Asset Valuations</b></p>\n<p>Informed investors know that we are currently in an “Everything Bubble” driven by massive and persistent central bank money creation. Virtually every major financial asset is overvalued and priced to deliver low - or even negative - long-term returns.</p>\n<p>For example, the Shiller P/E Ratio shown below is 30% higher than it was at the 1929 peak and is nearly as high as the all-time high in 2000. TheShiller P/E Ratiowas created by economist Robert Shiller and is calculated as the price of the S&amp;P 500 divided by the average past 10 years of earnings, adjusted for inflation. It attempts to smooth the cyclicality of earnings. Historically, high Shiller P/E Ratios have led to below-average long-term returns.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66f9a3f8fedee54d3a30a15b70138ab5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofShiller PE Ratio, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>Warren Buffett’s favorite valuation measure- and the one that best predicts future long-term stock market returns - is the Stock Market Capitalization To GDP Ratio, which is shown below. Based on this measure, stocks are trading 30% higher than the prior all-time high at the Tech Bubble peak of 2000! Stocks would have to fall over 60% for this ratio to return to the levels it reached at the stock market bottom in March 2009.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d270087f9958674d30bed139425fe08e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>It is not just stocks that are priced to deliver poor returns. US Treasury bills and bonds are trading at historically low interest rates not far above zero (and some countries have negative interest rates), assuring very low returns until maturity. Also, corporate bond yields relative to Treasury bond yields are at historically low levels.</p>\n<p>Real estate is also expensive, with REITs trading at historically low dividend yields. And as shown in the chart below of theS&amp;P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index, home prices are currently 27% higher than they were at the housing bubble peak of 2006!</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c011c579b31844dd761b260b1adb7600\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>Importantly, not only do high valuations lead to low long-term returns but they also usually lead to devastating bear markets on the path to those low long-term returns.</p>\n<p><b>2. Extraordinarily Bullish Investor Sentiment</b></p>\n<p>Along with high asset valuations, investor sentiment is at sky-high levels of bullishness. When investors are very bullish, that is a bearish contrarian indicator.</p>\n<p>The best investor sentiment indicators show where investors are actually putting their hard-earned money in anticipation of making a profit, not just what they say their “mood” is. For sentiment, we focus on investor<i>actions</i>, not<i>words</i>.</p>\n<p>One excellent sentiment indicator is the Equity Put/Call Ratio. When investors are bearish, they buy Put options in anticipation of profiting from a fall in stock prices. When they are bullish, they buy Call options in anticipation of profiting from a rise in stock prices. When the ratio of Puts to Calls is very high, that shows investors are very bearish, which is a bullish contrarian indicator. Conversely, when the ratio of Puts to Calls is very low, that shows investors are very bullish, which is a bearish contrarian indicator.</p>\n<p>The chart below shows the Equity Put/Call Ratio, using the 100-day moving average to reduce short-term noise in this indicator. Over the past year, it has fallen to extremely low levels - well below those seen at the stock market peak in 2007.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f4ac510219add2cccd009014b44162b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofStockCharts.com, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>The next chart is the Rydex Asset Ratio, which is the ratio of investor assets in all Rydex bear and money market funds (bearish positioning) compared to investor assets in all Rydex bull funds (bullish positioning). As you can see, investors have been very bullishly positioned in US stocks for over seven years! The last time investors approached this level of bullishness was around the Tech Bubble peak of 2000.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30902a5fd01f363fd7dc95147f34735a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofStockCharts.com, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>When the majority of investors are already very bullish and “all in”, there is no one left to buy and lots of potential sellers when something changes, as it always does. Most investors will be shocked when their bullish expectations meet the harsh reality of a major bear market.</p>\n<p><b>3. Weak Economic Fundamentals</b></p>\n<p>The US economy is not as strong as it used to be. That is certainly true in the wake of the Covid pandemic, but it has also been true for the past two decades. All of the taxes, regulations and other government interventions in the economy in recent decades have created a weaker and more fragile economy that will make the next recession even worse.</p>\n<p>The chart below of Industrial Production shows it is only 8% higher than at the 2000 peak and is 1% lower than at the 2007 peak. It has nearly flatlined over the past two decades. That is much weaker than the 3.9% annual growth in Industrial Production from 1920 to 2000.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3b30a4514e3707d1aaaf03a81dd5d3d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>Total Nonfarm Employment, shown below, grew at a 2.5% annual rate from 1940 to 2000. Similar to Industrial Production, Employment has nearly flatlined over the past two decades. It has increased only 10% since the 2000 peak and only 6% since the 2007 peak. Sadly, it is still nearly 4% below the February 2020 peak.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c7778bd8479e8800718b3abdcdf0dfb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p><b>4. Excessive Debt Levels</b></p>\n<p>The chart below shows the US Total Debt To GDP Ratio is near recent all-time highs at 3.8 times (or 380%), even higher than the high levels preceding the Great Recession. Global Debt To GDP is also at record high levels over 300%, as is US Federal Debt To GDP at 125%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/563808ddc51f6a6b821f4abde5f62d17\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"242\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>Excessive debt has been the problem with every financial crisis in history, due to prior money creation out of thin air. So the next one promises to be one for the history books given these unprecedented high debt levels. Debt liquidation and defaults will lead to deflation, particularly for asset prices, as we saw in the Great Recession and even more so in the Great Depression.</p>\n<p><b>5. Limited Policy Options</b></p>\n<p>The primary “bull case” for the stock market and economy over the past 12 years since the Great Recession ended has been “free liquidity” provided in seemingly endless amounts by the Federal Reserve. It is almost as though money really does grow on trees!</p>\n<p>But money created out of thin air does not create new goods and services that improve living standards. If it did, a place likeZimbabwewould be the wealthiest country in the world. However, newly created money can flow into financial assets, which helps explain why valuation levels are so high.</p>\n<p>The graph below shows “Austrian” Money Supply (AMS), the best measure of money supply that is consistent withthis Austrian School of Economics definition(although it no longer includes traveler’s checks, which have been discontinued in the Fed’s database due to limited use these days). AMS is up 40% since February 2020 and is up an astounding 225% since the Great Recession ended in June 2009!</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3844fc699c58ff48effcc5918378bfcd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>This is well above the money supply growth that drove the Roaring ‘20s and ultimately led to the Great Depression of the 1930s, as detailed in economist Murray N. Rothbard’s definitive history of that period in his book<i>America’s Great Depression</i>. In this book, heexplained the cause of the boom and bust business cycle:</p>\n<p><i>The “boom-bust” cycle is generated by monetary intervention in the market, specifically bank credit expansion to business…[B]ank credit expansion sets into motion the business cycle in all its phases: the inflationary boom, marked by expansion of the money supply and by malinvestment; the crisis, which arrives when credit expansion ceases and malinvestments become evident; and the depression recovery, the necessary adjustment process by which the economy returns to the most efficient ways of satisfying consumer desires.</i></p>\n<p>All this money creation has enabled the Fed to target theFederal Funds Rateat only 0.1%, as shown below. While that is above the negative interest rates prevailing in some countries, it doesn’t leave much room for the Fed to cut rates to try to prevent a recession, particularly with inflation at over 5% now. And as the chart shows, the Fed cut rates throughout the prior three recessions and bear markets and was not able to stop them, since the market is bigger than the Fed. This leaves the stock market and economy very vulnerable in the next downturn, with potentially no “safety nets” to protect them.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62449341ea09ce506389102e838a6cf4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>Lastly, for the Keynesian economists who still believe the dogma that Federal budget deficits can prevent a recession - despite any evidence or logical theory to support it - the current Federal Budget Surplus/Deficit To GDP Ratio of -15% is the worst since World War II, as shown below. Given record-high government debt levels and deficits, how much more deficit spending will bond investors be willing to finance? And what good will it do, since deficits did not prevent the Great Recession?</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26c9f09598045b1c92a037cc0e326f86\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p><b>Implications For Investors</b></p>\n<p>There is much more that can be said to prove our case, but hopefully, the facts provided in this article are sufficient for investors to understand the current risks in financial assets and the economy.</p>\n<p>While the exact timing of the next bear market and recession is unknown and there are currently no signs of it with stocks at all-time highs, now is the time for investors to seek out information on how to identify the tell-tale signs of bear markets and how to profit from them, rather than being decimated by them, as the majority of investors, unfortunately, will be.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Reasons The Next Stock Bear Market And Recession Could Be The Worst Since The 1930s</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Reasons The Next Stock Bear Market And Recession Could Be The Worst Since The 1930s\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-02 18:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452860-5-reasons-the-next-stock-bear-market-and-recession-could-be-the-worst-since-the-1930s><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe first reason we believe the next stock bear market and recession will be the worst since the 1930s is due to extremely high asset valuations.\nThe second reason is due to extraordinarily ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452860-5-reasons-the-next-stock-bear-market-and-recession-could-be-the-worst-since-the-1930s\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452860-5-reasons-the-next-stock-bear-market-and-recession-could-be-the-worst-since-the-1930s","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1146170136","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe first reason we believe the next stock bear market and recession will be the worst since the 1930s is due to extremely high asset valuations.\nThe second reason is due to extraordinarily bullish investor sentiment.\nThe third reason is due to weak economic fundamentals.\nThe fourth reason is due to excessive debt levels.\nThe fifth reason is due to limited policy options.\n\nWith the S&P 500 (SPY) at all-time highs and seemingly endless “free liquidity” being provided by the Fed, the last thing most investors can envision right now is a major bear market or recession - particularly ones that will be the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s!\nBut the facts we will detail in this article show that is highly likely to be the case. This is an extraordinary statement, but we are living in extraordinary times! Investors need to understand the risks they are facing now in order to prepare and profit from them in the future.\nHere are the five key reasons we believe the next stock bear market and recession will be worse than the Great Recession of 2008-2009 (when the S&P 500 fell 58% and it took about six years to recover), which will make it the worst since the 1930s (when the S&P 500 fell 86% and it took about 25 years to recover):\n1. Extremely High Asset Valuations\nInformed investors know that we are currently in an “Everything Bubble” driven by massive and persistent central bank money creation. Virtually every major financial asset is overvalued and priced to deliver low - or even negative - long-term returns.\nFor example, the Shiller P/E Ratio shown below is 30% higher than it was at the 1929 peak and is nearly as high as the all-time high in 2000. TheShiller P/E Ratiowas created by economist Robert Shiller and is calculated as the price of the S&P 500 divided by the average past 10 years of earnings, adjusted for inflation. It attempts to smooth the cyclicality of earnings. Historically, high Shiller P/E Ratios have led to below-average long-term returns.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofShiller PE Ratio, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nWarren Buffett’s favorite valuation measure- and the one that best predicts future long-term stock market returns - is the Stock Market Capitalization To GDP Ratio, which is shown below. Based on this measure, stocks are trading 30% higher than the prior all-time high at the Tech Bubble peak of 2000! Stocks would have to fall over 60% for this ratio to return to the levels it reached at the stock market bottom in March 2009.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nIt is not just stocks that are priced to deliver poor returns. US Treasury bills and bonds are trading at historically low interest rates not far above zero (and some countries have negative interest rates), assuring very low returns until maturity. Also, corporate bond yields relative to Treasury bond yields are at historically low levels.\nReal estate is also expensive, with REITs trading at historically low dividend yields. And as shown in the chart below of theS&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index, home prices are currently 27% higher than they were at the housing bubble peak of 2006!\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nImportantly, not only do high valuations lead to low long-term returns but they also usually lead to devastating bear markets on the path to those low long-term returns.\n2. Extraordinarily Bullish Investor Sentiment\nAlong with high asset valuations, investor sentiment is at sky-high levels of bullishness. When investors are very bullish, that is a bearish contrarian indicator.\nThe best investor sentiment indicators show where investors are actually putting their hard-earned money in anticipation of making a profit, not just what they say their “mood” is. For sentiment, we focus on investoractions, notwords.\nOne excellent sentiment indicator is the Equity Put/Call Ratio. When investors are bearish, they buy Put options in anticipation of profiting from a fall in stock prices. When they are bullish, they buy Call options in anticipation of profiting from a rise in stock prices. When the ratio of Puts to Calls is very high, that shows investors are very bearish, which is a bullish contrarian indicator. Conversely, when the ratio of Puts to Calls is very low, that shows investors are very bullish, which is a bearish contrarian indicator.\nThe chart below shows the Equity Put/Call Ratio, using the 100-day moving average to reduce short-term noise in this indicator. Over the past year, it has fallen to extremely low levels - well below those seen at the stock market peak in 2007.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofStockCharts.com, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nThe next chart is the Rydex Asset Ratio, which is the ratio of investor assets in all Rydex bear and money market funds (bearish positioning) compared to investor assets in all Rydex bull funds (bullish positioning). As you can see, investors have been very bullishly positioned in US stocks for over seven years! The last time investors approached this level of bullishness was around the Tech Bubble peak of 2000.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofStockCharts.com, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nWhen the majority of investors are already very bullish and “all in”, there is no one left to buy and lots of potential sellers when something changes, as it always does. Most investors will be shocked when their bullish expectations meet the harsh reality of a major bear market.\n3. Weak Economic Fundamentals\nThe US economy is not as strong as it used to be. That is certainly true in the wake of the Covid pandemic, but it has also been true for the past two decades. All of the taxes, regulations and other government interventions in the economy in recent decades have created a weaker and more fragile economy that will make the next recession even worse.\nThe chart below of Industrial Production shows it is only 8% higher than at the 2000 peak and is 1% lower than at the 2007 peak. It has nearly flatlined over the past two decades. That is much weaker than the 3.9% annual growth in Industrial Production from 1920 to 2000.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nTotal Nonfarm Employment, shown below, grew at a 2.5% annual rate from 1940 to 2000. Similar to Industrial Production, Employment has nearly flatlined over the past two decades. It has increased only 10% since the 2000 peak and only 6% since the 2007 peak. Sadly, it is still nearly 4% below the February 2020 peak.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\n4. Excessive Debt Levels\nThe chart below shows the US Total Debt To GDP Ratio is near recent all-time highs at 3.8 times (or 380%), even higher than the high levels preceding the Great Recession. Global Debt To GDP is also at record high levels over 300%, as is US Federal Debt To GDP at 125%.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nExcessive debt has been the problem with every financial crisis in history, due to prior money creation out of thin air. So the next one promises to be one for the history books given these unprecedented high debt levels. Debt liquidation and defaults will lead to deflation, particularly for asset prices, as we saw in the Great Recession and even more so in the Great Depression.\n5. Limited Policy Options\nThe primary “bull case” for the stock market and economy over the past 12 years since the Great Recession ended has been “free liquidity” provided in seemingly endless amounts by the Federal Reserve. It is almost as though money really does grow on trees!\nBut money created out of thin air does not create new goods and services that improve living standards. If it did, a place likeZimbabwewould be the wealthiest country in the world. However, newly created money can flow into financial assets, which helps explain why valuation levels are so high.\nThe graph below shows “Austrian” Money Supply (AMS), the best measure of money supply that is consistent withthis Austrian School of Economics definition(although it no longer includes traveler’s checks, which have been discontinued in the Fed’s database due to limited use these days). AMS is up 40% since February 2020 and is up an astounding 225% since the Great Recession ended in June 2009!\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nThis is well above the money supply growth that drove the Roaring ‘20s and ultimately led to the Great Depression of the 1930s, as detailed in economist Murray N. Rothbard’s definitive history of that period in his bookAmerica’s Great Depression. In this book, heexplained the cause of the boom and bust business cycle:\nThe “boom-bust” cycle is generated by monetary intervention in the market, specifically bank credit expansion to business…[B]ank credit expansion sets into motion the business cycle in all its phases: the inflationary boom, marked by expansion of the money supply and by malinvestment; the crisis, which arrives when credit expansion ceases and malinvestments become evident; and the depression recovery, the necessary adjustment process by which the economy returns to the most efficient ways of satisfying consumer desires.\nAll this money creation has enabled the Fed to target theFederal Funds Rateat only 0.1%, as shown below. While that is above the negative interest rates prevailing in some countries, it doesn’t leave much room for the Fed to cut rates to try to prevent a recession, particularly with inflation at over 5% now. And as the chart shows, the Fed cut rates throughout the prior three recessions and bear markets and was not able to stop them, since the market is bigger than the Fed. This leaves the stock market and economy very vulnerable in the next downturn, with potentially no “safety nets” to protect them.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nLastly, for the Keynesian economists who still believe the dogma that Federal budget deficits can prevent a recession - despite any evidence or logical theory to support it - the current Federal Budget Surplus/Deficit To GDP Ratio of -15% is the worst since World War II, as shown below. Given record-high government debt levels and deficits, how much more deficit spending will bond investors be willing to finance? And what good will it do, since deficits did not prevent the Great Recession?\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nImplications For Investors\nThere is much more that can be said to prove our case, but hopefully, the facts provided in this article are sufficient for investors to understand the current risks in financial assets and the economy.\nWhile the exact timing of the next bear market and recession is unknown and there are currently no signs of it with stocks at all-time highs, now is the time for investors to seek out information on how to identify the tell-tale signs of bear markets and how to profit from them, rather than being decimated by them, as the majority of investors, unfortunately, will be.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":895061458,"gmtCreate":1628695095774,"gmtModify":1631890704069,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580565594783380","idStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmmmm","listText":"Hmmmmm","text":"Hmmmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/895061458","repostId":"1149859103","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149859103","pubTimestamp":1628694829,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149859103?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-11 23:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chinese Electric-Vehicle Maker Aiways Explores 2021 U.S. IPO","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149859103","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Aichi Automobile Co., an electric-vehicle startup better known as Aiways, is exploring a U.S. initia","content":"<p>Aichi Automobile Co., an electric-vehicle startup better known as Aiways, is exploring a U.S. initial public offering that could occur as soon as this year, according to people with knowledge of the matter.</p>\n<p>The Shanghai-based company is working with underwriters ahead of a listing in which it could raise about $300 million, said the people, who asked not to identified discussing information that isn’t public.</p>\n<p>An Aiways representative declined to comment.</p>\n<p>The company, which has its European headquarters in Munich, was seeking funding from investors including ride-hailing giant Didi Global Inc. to fuel its global expansion in a transaction that may have valued Aiways at more than $2 billion, Bloomberg News reported in January.</p>\n<p>Founded in 2017 by Chinese entrepreneurs Samuel Fu and Gary Gu, the startup has a manufacturing base in Shangrao, China, and has an initial production capacity of 150,000 cars a year. The automaker’s SUV, known as the Aiways U5 and currently available only in Germany, takes 35 minutes to charge to 80% from 20% and can travel more than 400 kilometers (250 miles) with one full charge, according to itswebsite.</p>\n<p>This week, Aiways said it would supply Finn.auto, a car-subscription company, with at least 500 Aiways vehicles. The company has said another vehicle, the Aiways U6, will be available in European markets in 2022 and that order books are open in Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, France and Israel.</p>\n<p>Electric-vehicle adoption is projected to steeply accelerate in coming years, with sales expected to jump to 14 million in 2025 from 3.1 million in 2020, according to areportfrom BloombergNEF. That would represent 16% of global passenger vehicle sales in 2025, though electric-vehicle sales are expected to be higher in Germany and China at almost 40% and 25%, respectively, BloombergNEF says.</p>\n<p>Other electric-vehicle makers have pursued U.S. listings through mergers with blank-check firms, including Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc., Canoo Inc. and Fisker Inc., though many stocks havetumbledfrom their peaks.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese Electric-Vehicle Maker Aiways Explores 2021 U.S. IPO</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese Electric-Vehicle Maker Aiways Explores 2021 U.S. IPO\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-11 23:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-11/chinese-electric-vehicle-maker-aiways-explores-2021-u-s-ipo><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Aichi Automobile Co., an electric-vehicle startup better known as Aiways, is exploring a U.S. initial public offering that could occur as soon as this year, according to people with knowledge of the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-11/chinese-electric-vehicle-maker-aiways-explores-2021-u-s-ipo\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-11/chinese-electric-vehicle-maker-aiways-explores-2021-u-s-ipo","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149859103","content_text":"Aichi Automobile Co., an electric-vehicle startup better known as Aiways, is exploring a U.S. initial public offering that could occur as soon as this year, according to people with knowledge of the matter.\nThe Shanghai-based company is working with underwriters ahead of a listing in which it could raise about $300 million, said the people, who asked not to identified discussing information that isn’t public.\nAn Aiways representative declined to comment.\nThe company, which has its European headquarters in Munich, was seeking funding from investors including ride-hailing giant Didi Global Inc. to fuel its global expansion in a transaction that may have valued Aiways at more than $2 billion, Bloomberg News reported in January.\nFounded in 2017 by Chinese entrepreneurs Samuel Fu and Gary Gu, the startup has a manufacturing base in Shangrao, China, and has an initial production capacity of 150,000 cars a year. The automaker’s SUV, known as the Aiways U5 and currently available only in Germany, takes 35 minutes to charge to 80% from 20% and can travel more than 400 kilometers (250 miles) with one full charge, according to itswebsite.\nThis week, Aiways said it would supply Finn.auto, a car-subscription company, with at least 500 Aiways vehicles. The company has said another vehicle, the Aiways U6, will be available in European markets in 2022 and that order books are open in Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, France and Israel.\nElectric-vehicle adoption is projected to steeply accelerate in coming years, with sales expected to jump to 14 million in 2025 from 3.1 million in 2020, according to areportfrom BloombergNEF. That would represent 16% of global passenger vehicle sales in 2025, though electric-vehicle sales are expected to be higher in Germany and China at almost 40% and 25%, respectively, BloombergNEF says.\nOther electric-vehicle makers have pursued U.S. listings through mergers with blank-check firms, including Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc., Canoo Inc. and Fisker Inc., though many stocks havetumbledfrom their peaks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801501405,"gmtCreate":1627521265307,"gmtModify":1631890704086,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580565594783380","idStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Niceeee","listText":"Niceeee","text":"Niceeee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801501405","repostId":"1166151449","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803108237,"gmtCreate":1627426634429,"gmtModify":1631890704087,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580565594783380","idStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lets beat cancer!!","listText":"Lets beat cancer!!","text":"Lets beat cancer!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803108237","repostId":"1123658607","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1123658607","pubTimestamp":1627347222,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123658607?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 08:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"TYME Stock: The Cancer Treatment News That’s Boosting Tyme Today","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123658607","media":"investorplace","summary":"While the focus for most of last week and today has been centered around cryptocurrency and public o","content":"<p>While the focus for most of last week and today has been centered around cryptocurrency and public offerings, biotech companies have been quietly making a killing. New deals, patents, expansions and clinical trial results have been pushing a great deal of medical stocks upward at impressive rates. Joining the ranks of big gainers today is&nbsp;<b>Tyme Technologies</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>TYME</u></b>). Thanks to the announcement of a patent approval, TYME stock is soaring quite high.</p>\n<p>Tyme is a Bedminster, New Jersey-based, small cap biotech outfit. The company develops cancer metabolism-based therapies, or CMBTs, which take advantage of cancer cells’ differing metabolic functions to kill them. The company is announcing today some great news in the form of apatent approval. The patent will protect Tyme’s development of its CMBT treatment product.</p>\n<p>The company’s CMBT therapy is an oral therapy that combines tyrosine with a therapeutic agent. In essence, tyrosine is one of the non-essential amino acids on which cancer cells feverishly consume. Cancer cells need far more of these compounds because they don’t produce enough of their own. Since cancer cells metabolize far greater amounts of these non-essential components than the average cell, the therapeutic agent is more easily introduced to these cells. The agent then kills the cell.</p>\n<p>TYME Stock Soars on Patent News</p>\n<p>According to Tyme’s CSO, Steve Hoffman, the company plans to move forward with the development of the therapy in a way that is even safer and more effective than its current formula. All in all, this news is great for investors; with a patent secured, and an already promising initial product in the books, there are further growth prospects for TYME stock, which will attract new investors.</p>\n<p>The news is already paying off nicely for TYME. The stock is up over 72% on the news, and volume is massively increasing. 214 million shares of TYME are changing hands today, far greater than the average 2.7 million.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>TYME Stock: The Cancer Treatment News That’s Boosting Tyme Today</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTYME Stock: The Cancer Treatment News That’s Boosting Tyme Today\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-27 08:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/07/tyme-stock-the-cancer-treatment-news-thats-boosting-tyme-today/><strong>investorplace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>While the focus for most of last week and today has been centered around cryptocurrency and public offerings, biotech companies have been quietly making a killing. New deals, patents, expansions and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/07/tyme-stock-the-cancer-treatment-news-thats-boosting-tyme-today/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TYME":"Tyme Technologies, Inc."},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/07/tyme-stock-the-cancer-treatment-news-thats-boosting-tyme-today/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123658607","content_text":"While the focus for most of last week and today has been centered around cryptocurrency and public offerings, biotech companies have been quietly making a killing. New deals, patents, expansions and clinical trial results have been pushing a great deal of medical stocks upward at impressive rates. Joining the ranks of big gainers today is Tyme Technologies(NASDAQ:TYME). Thanks to the announcement of a patent approval, TYME stock is soaring quite high.\nTyme is a Bedminster, New Jersey-based, small cap biotech outfit. The company develops cancer metabolism-based therapies, or CMBTs, which take advantage of cancer cells’ differing metabolic functions to kill them. The company is announcing today some great news in the form of apatent approval. The patent will protect Tyme’s development of its CMBT treatment product.\nThe company’s CMBT therapy is an oral therapy that combines tyrosine with a therapeutic agent. In essence, tyrosine is one of the non-essential amino acids on which cancer cells feverishly consume. Cancer cells need far more of these compounds because they don’t produce enough of their own. Since cancer cells metabolize far greater amounts of these non-essential components than the average cell, the therapeutic agent is more easily introduced to these cells. The agent then kills the cell.\nTYME Stock Soars on Patent News\nAccording to Tyme’s CSO, Steve Hoffman, the company plans to move forward with the development of the therapy in a way that is even safer and more effective than its current formula. All in all, this news is great for investors; with a patent secured, and an already promising initial product in the books, there are further growth prospects for TYME stock, which will attract new investors.\nThe news is already paying off nicely for TYME. The stock is up over 72% on the news, and volume is massively increasing. 214 million shares of TYME are changing hands today, far greater than the average 2.7 million.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177548684,"gmtCreate":1627255242048,"gmtModify":1631885615281,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580565594783380","idStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Netflix and chill!","listText":"Netflix and chill!","text":"Netflix and chill!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177548684","repostId":"1115106146","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115106146","pubTimestamp":1627182277,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115106146?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 11:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will Netflix Be a Trillion-Dollar Stock by 2030?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115106146","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Will the streaming leader join the 12-zero club within the next decade?","content":"<p><b>Key Points</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Netflix is the FAANG stock with the smallest market cap.</li>\n <li>It will face tough competition over the next decade.</li>\n <li>Its chances of joining the trillion-dollar club by 2030 are slim.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Netflix</b>(NASDAQ:NFLX)represents the \"N\" in the FAANG cohort of top tech companies, which also include&nbsp;<b>Facebook</b>,<b>Amazon</b>,<b>Apple</b>, and Google's parent company&nbsp;<b>Alphabet</b>.</p>\n<p>But with a market cap of $236 billion, Netflix is also much smaller than its four FAANG peers. Apple is worth more than $2 trillion, Amazon and Alphabet are both worth over $1 trillion, and Facebook has a market cap of $955 billion. Could Netflix also join the 12-zero club within the next ten years?</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a68592db9e2c6f47c122855a95129a4c\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1095\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: NETFLIX.</span></p>\n<p><b>The story thus far...</b></p>\n<p>Netflix has reinvented itself several times since it was founded in 1997. It initially offered DVD rentals by mail, then expanded that model into a subscription service, and accumulated five million members by 2006.</p>\n<p>Netflix launched its first streaming platform in 2007, which was subsequently offered on gaming consoles, set-top boxes, and Blu-ray players. It also launched its service internationally.</p>\n<p>That expansion boosted Netflix's audience to 25 million members by 2012. A year later it launched its first slate of original shows -- including&nbsp;<i>Orange is the New Blac</i>k,<i>House of Cards</i>, and&nbsp;<i>Hemlock Grove</i>-- to lock in its subscribers and reduce its dependence on licensed content.</p>\n<p>Netflix hit 50 million members in 2014, 100 million members in 2017, and 209.2 million members in its latest quarter. That massive audience makes it the world's largest paid video streaming platform.</p>\n<p>Between 2010 and 2020, Netflix's annual revenue rose from $2.16 billion to $25.0 billion. Its net income surged from $161 million to $2.76 billion.</p>\n<p><b>The challenges ahead...</b></p>\n<p>Netflix still enjoys a first-mover's advantage in premium streaming videos, but it currently faces a growing list of formidable competitors. The biggest threat is&nbsp;<b>Disney</b>(NYSE:DIS), which owns a massive portfolio of first-party content and offers its services at lower prices than Netflix.</p>\n<p>Disney+, the company's flagship platform, has already accumulated nearly 104 million subscribers since its launch in late 2019. By comparison, it took Netflix's streaming platform<i>ten years</i>to hit 100 million subscribers. Disney expects Disney+ to reach 230 million to 260 million subscribers by the end of fiscal 2024.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63d16de9232c81308fb95b1bfeeab68e\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p>\n<p>Disney also owns Hulu and ESPN+, which served 41.6 million and 13.8 million subscribers, respectively, last quarter. Hulu hosts more mature content than Disney+, while ESPN+ streams live sports -- a frequently requested feature that Netflix still doesn't offer.</p>\n<p>Other challengers include Amazon's Prime Video,<b>AT&amp;T</b>'s HBO Max, Apple TV+, and stand-alone streaming services from traditional TV networks. This ongoing fragmentation of the streaming market could limit Netflix's pricing power, make it more difficult to gain new subscribers, and force it to spend even more money on expensive original shows and movies to retain its existing audience.</p>\n<p>Netflix has already been exploring new ways to differentiate its platform. It's licensing more anime content and expanding its children's programming, and it even launched an&nbsp;online store&nbsp;to sell tie-in merchandise. It's also planning to expand into&nbsp;video games&nbsp;by offering free mobile games to subscribers.</p>\n<p><b>The road to $1 trillion</b></p>\n<p>Netflix's stock has rallied about 1,200% over the past decade. But to cross the $1 trillion mark, it needs to more than quadruple in value.</p>\n<p>Analysts expect Netflix's revenue to rise 19% to $29.7 billion this year, then grow 15% to $34.2 billion next year. Netflix's growth will likely decelerate afterwards, for two simple reasons: It's saturating its developed markets like the U.S., and it faces too much competition around the world.</p>\n<p>But let's assume Netflix continues to roll out compelling original content, locks in more users with niche content like anime, and expands its digital ecosystem with video games and online merchandise.</p>\n<p>If Netflix's revenue growth meets analysts' expectations for the next two years and continues growing at an average rate of 10% from 2023 to 2030, it could generate $73.3 billion in annual revenue by the final year. If Netflix is still trading at about eight times sales, it would be worth nearly $600 billion.</p>\n<p>If Netflix grows it revenue at an average rate of 15% from 2023 to 2020, it would generate $104.6 billion in annual revenue by the final year. At eight times sales, it would still fall short of the $1 trillion mark.</p>\n<p>But Netflix's&nbsp;price-to-sales&nbsp;ratio will likely decline if investors think its high-growth days are over, which would result in much lower market caps. Investors should take a look at Netflix's Chinese counterpart&nbsp;<b>iQiyi</b>, which trades at just two times this year's sales and about 30% below its IPO price, to see what happens when a high-growth streaming video platform&nbsp;loses its momentum.</p>\n<p><b>The key takeaways</b></p>\n<p>Netflix's growth over the past decade has been stellar, but much of its success can be attributed to its first-mover's advantage in the streaming market. However, that advantage will likely fade over the next decade as competitors like Disney carve up the market. Netflix should keep growing over the next decade, but its chances of joining its&nbsp;FAANG peers&nbsp;in the trillion-dollar club by 2030 are slim.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Netflix Be a Trillion-Dollar Stock by 2030?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Netflix Be a Trillion-Dollar Stock by 2030?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-25 11:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/24/will-netflix-be-a-trillion-dollar-stock-by-2030/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Key Points\n\nNetflix is the FAANG stock with the smallest market cap.\nIt will face tough competition over the next decade.\nIts chances of joining the trillion-dollar club by 2030 are slim.\n\nNetflix(...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/24/will-netflix-be-a-trillion-dollar-stock-by-2030/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/24/will-netflix-be-a-trillion-dollar-stock-by-2030/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115106146","content_text":"Key Points\n\nNetflix is the FAANG stock with the smallest market cap.\nIt will face tough competition over the next decade.\nIts chances of joining the trillion-dollar club by 2030 are slim.\n\nNetflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)represents the \"N\" in the FAANG cohort of top tech companies, which also include Facebook,Amazon,Apple, and Google's parent company Alphabet.\nBut with a market cap of $236 billion, Netflix is also much smaller than its four FAANG peers. Apple is worth more than $2 trillion, Amazon and Alphabet are both worth over $1 trillion, and Facebook has a market cap of $955 billion. Could Netflix also join the 12-zero club within the next ten years?\nIMAGE SOURCE: NETFLIX.\nThe story thus far...\nNetflix has reinvented itself several times since it was founded in 1997. It initially offered DVD rentals by mail, then expanded that model into a subscription service, and accumulated five million members by 2006.\nNetflix launched its first streaming platform in 2007, which was subsequently offered on gaming consoles, set-top boxes, and Blu-ray players. It also launched its service internationally.\nThat expansion boosted Netflix's audience to 25 million members by 2012. A year later it launched its first slate of original shows -- including Orange is the New Black,House of Cards, and Hemlock Grove-- to lock in its subscribers and reduce its dependence on licensed content.\nNetflix hit 50 million members in 2014, 100 million members in 2017, and 209.2 million members in its latest quarter. That massive audience makes it the world's largest paid video streaming platform.\nBetween 2010 and 2020, Netflix's annual revenue rose from $2.16 billion to $25.0 billion. Its net income surged from $161 million to $2.76 billion.\nThe challenges ahead...\nNetflix still enjoys a first-mover's advantage in premium streaming videos, but it currently faces a growing list of formidable competitors. The biggest threat is Disney(NYSE:DIS), which owns a massive portfolio of first-party content and offers its services at lower prices than Netflix.\nDisney+, the company's flagship platform, has already accumulated nearly 104 million subscribers since its launch in late 2019. By comparison, it took Netflix's streaming platformten yearsto hit 100 million subscribers. Disney expects Disney+ to reach 230 million to 260 million subscribers by the end of fiscal 2024.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nDisney also owns Hulu and ESPN+, which served 41.6 million and 13.8 million subscribers, respectively, last quarter. Hulu hosts more mature content than Disney+, while ESPN+ streams live sports -- a frequently requested feature that Netflix still doesn't offer.\nOther challengers include Amazon's Prime Video,AT&T's HBO Max, Apple TV+, and stand-alone streaming services from traditional TV networks. This ongoing fragmentation of the streaming market could limit Netflix's pricing power, make it more difficult to gain new subscribers, and force it to spend even more money on expensive original shows and movies to retain its existing audience.\nNetflix has already been exploring new ways to differentiate its platform. It's licensing more anime content and expanding its children's programming, and it even launched an online store to sell tie-in merchandise. It's also planning to expand into video games by offering free mobile games to subscribers.\nThe road to $1 trillion\nNetflix's stock has rallied about 1,200% over the past decade. But to cross the $1 trillion mark, it needs to more than quadruple in value.\nAnalysts expect Netflix's revenue to rise 19% to $29.7 billion this year, then grow 15% to $34.2 billion next year. Netflix's growth will likely decelerate afterwards, for two simple reasons: It's saturating its developed markets like the U.S., and it faces too much competition around the world.\nBut let's assume Netflix continues to roll out compelling original content, locks in more users with niche content like anime, and expands its digital ecosystem with video games and online merchandise.\nIf Netflix's revenue growth meets analysts' expectations for the next two years and continues growing at an average rate of 10% from 2023 to 2030, it could generate $73.3 billion in annual revenue by the final year. If Netflix is still trading at about eight times sales, it would be worth nearly $600 billion.\nIf Netflix grows it revenue at an average rate of 15% from 2023 to 2020, it would generate $104.6 billion in annual revenue by the final year. At eight times sales, it would still fall short of the $1 trillion mark.\nBut Netflix's price-to-sales ratio will likely decline if investors think its high-growth days are over, which would result in much lower market caps. Investors should take a look at Netflix's Chinese counterpart iQiyi, which trades at just two times this year's sales and about 30% below its IPO price, to see what happens when a high-growth streaming video platform loses its momentum.\nThe key takeaways\nNetflix's growth over the past decade has been stellar, but much of its success can be attributed to its first-mover's advantage in the streaming market. However, that advantage will likely fade over the next decade as competitors like Disney carve up the market. Netflix should keep growing over the next decade, but its chances of joining its FAANG peers in the trillion-dollar club by 2030 are slim.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":337,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171614586,"gmtCreate":1626741824445,"gmtModify":1631890704095,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580565594783380","idStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Niceeee","listText":"Niceeee","text":"Niceeee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171614586","repostId":"2152651282","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2152651282","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1626736933,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2152651282?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 07:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Biden says inflation temporary; Fed should do what it deems necessary for recovery","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2152651282","media":"Reuters","summary":"WASHINGTON, July 19 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden on Monday said an increase in prices was ex","content":"<p>WASHINGTON, July 19 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden on Monday said an increase in prices was expected to be temporary, but his administration understood that unchecked inflation over the longer term would pose a \"real challenge\" to the economy and would remain vigilant.</p>\n<p>Biden said he told Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell recently that the Fed was independent and should take whatever steps it deems necessary to support a strong, durable recovery.</p>\n<p>\"As our economy comes roaring back, we've seen some price increases,\" Biden said, while rejecting concerns the recent increases could be a sign of persistent inflation.</p>\n<p>He said his administration was doing all it could to address supply chain bottlenecks that had pushed up the price of cars, and noted that lumber prices were now easing after spiking higher early in the recovery.</p>\n<p>\"I want to be clear: my administration understands that were we ever to experience unchecked inflation in the long term, that would pose a real challenge for our economy,\" he said. \"While we're confident that isn't what we're seeing today, we're going to remain vigilant about any response that is needed.\"</p>\n<p>Biden said he had also made that point clear to Powell: \"The Fed is independent. It should take whatever steps it deems necessary to support a strong, durable economic recovery.\"</p>\n<p>Growing concerns about inflation dragged U.S. consumer sentiment in early July to its lowest level in five months, a survey showed Friday, after a 0.9% jump in consumer prices in June, the biggest increase in 13 years, but economists continue to believe that higher inflation is transitory.</p>\n<p>The Democratic president said his plans to invest more in infrastructure, as well as better care for older people and children, would help reduce inflationary pressures in the future by boosting productivity.</p>\n<p>\"These steps will enhance our productivity, raising wages without raising prices,\" he said. \"It will take the pressure off of inflation, give a boost to our workforce which leads to lower prices in the years ahead.\"</p>\n<p>He said critics had warned repeatedly that his economic policies would lead to an end to capitalism, but economists were now predicting the United States would hit its highest economic growth rate in 40 years.</p>\n<p>\"It turns out capitalism is alive and very well,\" he said. \"We're making serious progress to ensure that it works the way it's supposed to work for the good of the American people.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Biden says inflation temporary; Fed should do what it deems necessary for recovery</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBiden says inflation temporary; Fed should do what it deems necessary for recovery\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-20 07:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>WASHINGTON, July 19 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden on Monday said an increase in prices was expected to be temporary, but his administration understood that unchecked inflation over the longer term would pose a \"real challenge\" to the economy and would remain vigilant.</p>\n<p>Biden said he told Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell recently that the Fed was independent and should take whatever steps it deems necessary to support a strong, durable recovery.</p>\n<p>\"As our economy comes roaring back, we've seen some price increases,\" Biden said, while rejecting concerns the recent increases could be a sign of persistent inflation.</p>\n<p>He said his administration was doing all it could to address supply chain bottlenecks that had pushed up the price of cars, and noted that lumber prices were now easing after spiking higher early in the recovery.</p>\n<p>\"I want to be clear: my administration understands that were we ever to experience unchecked inflation in the long term, that would pose a real challenge for our economy,\" he said. \"While we're confident that isn't what we're seeing today, we're going to remain vigilant about any response that is needed.\"</p>\n<p>Biden said he had also made that point clear to Powell: \"The Fed is independent. It should take whatever steps it deems necessary to support a strong, durable economic recovery.\"</p>\n<p>Growing concerns about inflation dragged U.S. consumer sentiment in early July to its lowest level in five months, a survey showed Friday, after a 0.9% jump in consumer prices in June, the biggest increase in 13 years, but economists continue to believe that higher inflation is transitory.</p>\n<p>The Democratic president said his plans to invest more in infrastructure, as well as better care for older people and children, would help reduce inflationary pressures in the future by boosting productivity.</p>\n<p>\"These steps will enhance our productivity, raising wages without raising prices,\" he said. \"It will take the pressure off of inflation, give a boost to our workforce which leads to lower prices in the years ahead.\"</p>\n<p>He said critics had warned repeatedly that his economic policies would lead to an end to capitalism, but economists were now predicting the United States would hit its highest economic growth rate in 40 years.</p>\n<p>\"It turns out capitalism is alive and very well,\" he said. \"We're making serious progress to ensure that it works the way it's supposed to work for the good of the American people.\"</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2152651282","content_text":"WASHINGTON, July 19 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden on Monday said an increase in prices was expected to be temporary, but his administration understood that unchecked inflation over the longer term would pose a \"real challenge\" to the economy and would remain vigilant.\nBiden said he told Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell recently that the Fed was independent and should take whatever steps it deems necessary to support a strong, durable recovery.\n\"As our economy comes roaring back, we've seen some price increases,\" Biden said, while rejecting concerns the recent increases could be a sign of persistent inflation.\nHe said his administration was doing all it could to address supply chain bottlenecks that had pushed up the price of cars, and noted that lumber prices were now easing after spiking higher early in the recovery.\n\"I want to be clear: my administration understands that were we ever to experience unchecked inflation in the long term, that would pose a real challenge for our economy,\" he said. \"While we're confident that isn't what we're seeing today, we're going to remain vigilant about any response that is needed.\"\nBiden said he had also made that point clear to Powell: \"The Fed is independent. It should take whatever steps it deems necessary to support a strong, durable economic recovery.\"\nGrowing concerns about inflation dragged U.S. consumer sentiment in early July to its lowest level in five months, a survey showed Friday, after a 0.9% jump in consumer prices in June, the biggest increase in 13 years, but economists continue to believe that higher inflation is transitory.\nThe Democratic president said his plans to invest more in infrastructure, as well as better care for older people and children, would help reduce inflationary pressures in the future by boosting productivity.\n\"These steps will enhance our productivity, raising wages without raising prices,\" he said. \"It will take the pressure off of inflation, give a boost to our workforce which leads to lower prices in the years ahead.\"\nHe said critics had warned repeatedly that his economic policies would lead to an end to capitalism, but economists were now predicting the United States would hit its highest economic growth rate in 40 years.\n\"It turns out capitalism is alive and very well,\" he said. \"We're making serious progress to ensure that it works the way it's supposed to work for the good of the American people.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179703315,"gmtCreate":1626574744237,"gmtModify":1631893813439,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580565594783380","idStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmmmm","listText":"Hmmmmm","text":"Hmmmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179703315","repostId":"1123523681","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123523681","pubTimestamp":1626569903,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123523681?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-18 08:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The story behind the savvy ‘Mystery Broker’ and where he sees the market going now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123523681","media":"CNBC","summary":"“So, there’s this guy who emails me his market outlook every so often.”\nThat’s howmy Barron’s column","content":"<div>\n<p>“So, there’s this guy who emails me his market outlook every so often.”\nThat’s howmy Barron’s column started one week nearly a dozen years ago, introducing the canny and clear-thinking financial ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/17/the-story-behind-the-savvy-mystery-broker-and-where-he-sees-the-market-going-now.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The story behind the savvy ‘Mystery Broker’ and where he sees the market going now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe story behind the savvy ‘Mystery Broker’ and where he sees the market going now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-18 08:58 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/17/the-story-behind-the-savvy-mystery-broker-and-where-he-sees-the-market-going-now.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“So, there’s this guy who emails me his market outlook every so often.”\nThat’s howmy Barron’s column started one week nearly a dozen years ago, introducing the canny and clear-thinking financial ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/17/the-story-behind-the-savvy-mystery-broker-and-where-he-sees-the-market-going-now.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/17/the-story-behind-the-savvy-mystery-broker-and-where-he-sees-the-market-going-now.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1123523681","content_text":"“So, there’s this guy who emails me his market outlook every so often.”\nThat’s howmy Barron’s column started one week nearly a dozen years ago, introducing the canny and clear-thinking financial advisor who has come to be known in print and on Twitter as the Mystery Broker, whose market color and investment calls I share on the irregular frequency with which he sends them.\nHis predictions don’t always prove prescient, but he has been more right than wrong, with a particularly impressive record of bold calls around market bottoms and ahead of corrections.\nAs noted in that first writeup in Barron’s in December 2009: “This particular guy is unique in at least two respects. He has no interest in having his name placed in print or pixels. And he is the one commentator I’m aware of who both turned aggressively bearish virtually at the all-time market peak in 2007, then in April began insisting that the March market lows would not be challenged, and that a new cyclical bull market had a long way to run.”\nThis broker’s dispatch to me in April 2009 — just weeks after the ultimate low of a wrenching 18-month bear market and terrifying global credit crisis — was a 12-page single-spaced argument that the financial crisis was over.  This was far from the consensus at the time. A November 2007 piece had called for a brutal bear market, a month after the S&P 500 hit a peak it wouldn’t revisit until 2013 and before most investors even had a bear market on their radar.\nThe intention of airing his views was not to create some gimmick or generate cheap intrigue, but simply to offer the well-grounded thoughts of professional free of institutional constraints or the need to sell investment products.\nBut it did capture readers’ attention and imagination, to the point that requests for updates of the Mystery Broker’s market take come constantly. I continue it strictly because so many readers and viewers have followed his work for years and like to keep up\nAnd, yes, the whole exercise drives some people nuts, whether they think it’s irresponsible (which makes no sense, he gets no benefit and doesn’t hype small stocks that could move in his favor) or insist it’s a fictional alter ego (untrue).\nMystery Broker’s approach\nHe became a broker in the mid-’80s. While there’s long been a guessing game about MB’s identity, he is not someone who’s name anyone would know, he doesn’t otherwise comment publicly on investments.\nAs noted back in 2009: “He doesn’t claim any magic formulas or proprietary systems. His approach is eclectic and inclusive, ranging among economic, technical, historical, valuation and sentiment inputs.” He’ll cite Marty Zweig, Ned Davis and the Value Line Appreciation Potential indicators – fairly old-school inspirations – but doesn’t seem rigidly attached to any one model or style.\nI almost never solicit Mystery Broker’s take, preferring he check in only when it strikes him, often when he changes his market stance or is moved to reiterate his conviction in a prior call. Aside from the broad market commentary, he’ll sometimes make the case for or against individual stocks. He loved wells Fargo to start 2021, as well as GE, for instance.\nMystery Broker sometimes goes deep on a controversial emerging biotech name, the sort of thing I tend not to pass along. He was put off by CNBC’s heavy coverage of the “meme stocks” early this year and let me know it. He and I both have strong views on baseball, which we exchange via email. We’ve never met.\nHow he navigated the pandemic\nIn the past few months, Mystery Broker has been cautious on stocks and has missed a bit of upside. Specifically, he went to a sell (which tends to mean raising cash for clients and himself and hedging equity holdings with index puts) at the close on April 16, with the S&P 500 at 4185. The index went sideways for two months, then lifted to last week’s record up almost 5% from where he called for a correction.\nStill, he’s playing with a lot of house money, having been deftly bullish into the teeth of the March 2020 Covid crash. (He was negative on the market from January last year, though not because he expected either a pandemic or a crash).\nThe individual calls are viewable at the #MysteryBroker hashtag on Twitter, but to cite a few examples: He thought the March 4, 2020, low in the S&P 500 near 2900 would hold; it absolutely didn’t, plunging to about 2200 by the 23rd. But on March 26 he said the bottom was in, and within a month the S&P had recovered back to 2900.\nThen, this in mid-April 2020: He would normally look for a retest of the major low, but not then: ”“Because for the first time in stock market history the consensus is for a retest, a normal retest is not likely to happen.”\nThis was right, as was his preference for riskier cyclical stocks and his update June of last year: “We are in a new bull market...every correction should be bought...every time S&P 500 falls below its 50-day moving average is an extraordinary buying opportunity.”\nS&P 500 with 50-day moving averageFactSet\nAfter that and before predicting a correction three months ago that has yet to occur, he pegged the peak in FAANMG days before they topped last Sept. 1; said in late December the market had “entered the last hurrah for growth and speculative stocks” that would pressure the  overall market but not necessarily drive across-the-board losses; and predicted bitcoin would peak coincident with the Coinbase listing (it did). Not perfect, but not bad.\nHis current outlook\nHis is not a system, but a weight-of-the-evidence approach pursued with an open mind and a feel for market cadences earned over more than three decades of economic cycles.\nFollowing up onhis latest update this week, I asked for a broader take on historical echoes and longer-term probabilities. Mystery Broker offers this:\n“I think the current recovery is most similar to the recovery in 2003-04.  A big transition from hyper-growth to value.  Also, valuations are already high after only one year of stock market and economic growth similar to 2003-4, although more extreme now. ” He expects “muted returns for the rest of decade similar to the low returns of the first decade of the 2000s.  See leadership from industrials, healthcare and to some degree financials.”\n“Don’t expect technology to be a big outperformer and semiconductors will be a disappointment especially equipment semis that have benefitted from a few big trends over the last few years. Value, foreign stocks (expect dollar to fall over the next few years) and equal-weighted indices will outperform.  Inflation and interest rates will slowly rise which is different from the last decade.\n“The big surprise will be how old industries adapt to new technology and fight off some of the hot new entries.  There will be a lot of rebounds similar to how the New York Times came back from the dead last decade.”\nI also asked if he’s interested in being identified. The answer: not now, but maybe soon.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170100131,"gmtCreate":1626409015623,"gmtModify":1631893813462,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580565594783380","idStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"NooOoooOooo","listText":"NooOoooOooo","text":"NooOoooOooo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170100131","repostId":"1165176874","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165176874","pubTimestamp":1626387247,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1165176874?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-16 06:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Expect a 10% or worse correction in U.S. stocks by mid-August, says this forecaster with a proven track record","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165176874","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market breadth hasn’t been this poor since October 2018 and the start of a 20%-plus decline.Get ready for the most severe correction since the bull market began in March 2020.To be sure, predictions are a dime a dozen on Wall Street. But this one comes from Hayes Martin, president of investment advisory firmMarket Extremes. I was introduced to Martin’s work several years ago and since then I’ve found his predictions of market turning points to be impressive. . I devoted two columns to Martin’s f","content":"<blockquote>\n Market breadth hasn’t been this poor since October 2018 and the start of a 20%-plus decline.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Get ready for the most severe correction since the bull market began in March 2020.</p>\n<p>To be sure, predictions are a dime a dozen on Wall Street. But this one comes from Hayes Martin, president of investment advisory firmMarket Extremes. I was introduced to Martin’s work several years ago and since then I’ve found his predictions of market turning points to be impressive. (For the record: Martin does not have an investment newsletter; my newsletter-tracking firm does not audit his investment performance.)</p>\n<p>I devoted two columns to Martin’s forecasts over the past year, and both proved prescient. In May 2020, I concluded that “the stock market… is stronger than even the most bullish investors believe.” In January of this year, I wrote that the market was still “firing on all cylinders.”</p>\n<p>In an interview on July 14, Martin said the U.S. stock market today is most definitely not firing on all cylinders. In fact, he said, the market’s internal health is now worse than at any time since October 2018. That was the beginning of a 20% decline in the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.33%and a 26% decline in the small-cap Russell 2000 IndexRUT,-0.55%.(Martin anticipated that decline as well; seemy Oct. 4, 2018, column.)</p>\n<p>Martin hastened to add that the market’s internal health is not as bad today as it was in 2018. This time around, he is forecasting a decline of 10% or more for the leading U.S. stock indexes. As for timing, he says that the decline could begin at any time, but he anticipates that it will begin no later than mid-August.</p>\n<p><b>The source of the market’s ill-health</b></p>\n<p>Martin bases his sobering forecast on the increasing divergences within the U.S. market, as indicated by fewer and fewer stocks participating in the headline-grabbing strength of the leading indices. One indicator of these divergences is the growing number of stocks hitting new lows, for example. On Wednesday of this week, for example, even as the Nasdaq 100NDX,-0.71%and the S&amp;P 100OEX,-0.37%indexes were hitting new highs, many sectors were registering a plurality of new lows.</p>\n<p>This was particularly evident in the small- and mid-cap sectors, as represented by the Russell 2000 index. On July 13 there were more new lows than new highs within that index for the second consecutive day. In Martin’s data for the Russell 2000’s new highs and new lows, which extends back to June 2000, what happened this week has happened only three other times — in September 2014, July 2015 and October 2018. In all three cases, three months later both the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 were at least 10% lower.</p>\n<p>Martin reports that the only area of the market not showing dangerous divergences right now is the large-cap dominated S&amp;P 500. Except for that sector, he says that the “stock market’s current internals are some of the worst I’ve seen in decades.”</p>\n<p>Martin added that these severe divergences are occurring as equities are severely overvalued — with some stocks in bubble territory. This means that, when the market does decline, it’s likely to fall more than it would otherwise.</p>\n<p>Adding fuel to the fire, he continued, is the too-bullish investor sentiment that prevails right now. As contrarians remind us, such sentiment extremes mean that the path of least resistance for the market is down.</p>\n<p>To be sure, Martin concluded, stocks have been overvalued for some time now, and bullish sentiment has been at or close to extremes. The missing piece was market divergences. That piece is now in place.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Expect a 10% or worse correction in U.S. stocks by mid-August, says this forecaster with a proven track record</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nExpect a 10% or worse correction in U.S. stocks by mid-August, says this forecaster with a proven track record\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-16 06:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/expect-a-10-correction-in-u-s-stocks-by-mid-august-says-this-forecaster-with-a-proven-track-record-11626380633?siteid=yhoof2><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Market breadth hasn’t been this poor since October 2018 and the start of a 20%-plus decline.\n\nGet ready for the most severe correction since the bull market began in March 2020.\nTo be sure, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/expect-a-10-correction-in-u-s-stocks-by-mid-august-says-this-forecaster-with-a-proven-track-record-11626380633?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/expect-a-10-correction-in-u-s-stocks-by-mid-august-says-this-forecaster-with-a-proven-track-record-11626380633?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165176874","content_text":"Market breadth hasn’t been this poor since October 2018 and the start of a 20%-plus decline.\n\nGet ready for the most severe correction since the bull market began in March 2020.\nTo be sure, predictions are a dime a dozen on Wall Street. But this one comes from Hayes Martin, president of investment advisory firmMarket Extremes. I was introduced to Martin’s work several years ago and since then I’ve found his predictions of market turning points to be impressive. (For the record: Martin does not have an investment newsletter; my newsletter-tracking firm does not audit his investment performance.)\nI devoted two columns to Martin’s forecasts over the past year, and both proved prescient. In May 2020, I concluded that “the stock market… is stronger than even the most bullish investors believe.” In January of this year, I wrote that the market was still “firing on all cylinders.”\nIn an interview on July 14, Martin said the U.S. stock market today is most definitely not firing on all cylinders. In fact, he said, the market’s internal health is now worse than at any time since October 2018. That was the beginning of a 20% decline in the S&P 500SPX,-0.33%and a 26% decline in the small-cap Russell 2000 IndexRUT,-0.55%.(Martin anticipated that decline as well; seemy Oct. 4, 2018, column.)\nMartin hastened to add that the market’s internal health is not as bad today as it was in 2018. This time around, he is forecasting a decline of 10% or more for the leading U.S. stock indexes. As for timing, he says that the decline could begin at any time, but he anticipates that it will begin no later than mid-August.\nThe source of the market’s ill-health\nMartin bases his sobering forecast on the increasing divergences within the U.S. market, as indicated by fewer and fewer stocks participating in the headline-grabbing strength of the leading indices. One indicator of these divergences is the growing number of stocks hitting new lows, for example. On Wednesday of this week, for example, even as the Nasdaq 100NDX,-0.71%and the S&P 100OEX,-0.37%indexes were hitting new highs, many sectors were registering a plurality of new lows.\nThis was particularly evident in the small- and mid-cap sectors, as represented by the Russell 2000 index. On July 13 there were more new lows than new highs within that index for the second consecutive day. In Martin’s data for the Russell 2000’s new highs and new lows, which extends back to June 2000, what happened this week has happened only three other times — in September 2014, July 2015 and October 2018. In all three cases, three months later both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 were at least 10% lower.\nMartin reports that the only area of the market not showing dangerous divergences right now is the large-cap dominated S&P 500. Except for that sector, he says that the “stock market’s current internals are some of the worst I’ve seen in decades.”\nMartin added that these severe divergences are occurring as equities are severely overvalued — with some stocks in bubble territory. This means that, when the market does decline, it’s likely to fall more than it would otherwise.\nAdding fuel to the fire, he continued, is the too-bullish investor sentiment that prevails right now. As contrarians remind us, such sentiment extremes mean that the path of least resistance for the market is down.\nTo be sure, Martin concluded, stocks have been overvalued for some time now, and bullish sentiment has been at or close to extremes. The missing piece was market divergences. That piece is now in place.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":99,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170930984,"gmtCreate":1626398679848,"gmtModify":1631893813474,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580565594783380","idStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmmm","listText":"Hmmmm","text":"Hmmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170930984","repostId":"1126289564","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145804477,"gmtCreate":1626214553399,"gmtModify":1631893813488,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580565594783380","idStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Im also stressed","listText":"Im also stressed","text":"Im also stressed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145804477","repostId":"2151780560","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151780560","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1626212400,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2151780560?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 05:40","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Powell will stress patience in Capitol Hill testimony this week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151780560","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Fed chairman will let lawmakers duke it out over inflation, infrastructure.\n\nFed Chairman Jerome Pow","content":"<blockquote>\n Fed chairman will let lawmakers duke it out over inflation, infrastructure.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will use his two days of congressional testimony this week to stress that he is in no rush to exit the central bank's easy policy stance.</p>\n<p>\"Patience will remain the watchword,\" said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.</p>\n<p>The strong consumer price inflation report will lead to some more pointed questions, especially from Republicans eager to blame Democrats for the rise.</p>\n<p>Headline CPI beat expectations in June , rising 0.9% after a 0.6% jump in May.</p>\n<p>But Powell is not going to rewrite his testimony due to that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> report, economists said.</p>\n<p>\"If the last two inflation prints did not shift his views in a meaningful way, it is hard to see why this <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> will,\" said Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research.</p>\n<p>\"Powell's main job at this point will be to push back against the regional Fed presidents, who will only get louder in their calls to remove policy accommodation,\" Dutta wrote in a note to clients.</p>\n<p>The Fed is holding rates close to zero and buying $120 billion of Treasurys and mortgage-related bonds each month to keep interest rates low.</p>\n<p>Minutes of the Fed's June meeting show that officials had a lengthy discussion about when to slow down, or taper, the asset purchases. That is the likely first step in backing away from its easy policy stance.</p>\n<p>In general, economists think the Fed will announce its plans on tapering as soon as September and could start to taper by year's end. But economists don't agree on the timing.</p>\n<p>\"Powell doesn't want to make news, because if he's making news then it's because he said something different, something surprising,\" said Vine Reinhart, Mellon's chief economist, in an interview on Bloomberg Radio.</p>\n<p>\"He wants to say 'everything is on course.' They are worried about the pandemic, they're pleased with unfolding economic data, but there is a long way to go,\" Reinhart said.</p>\n<p>In a possible preview of Powell's message, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Tuesday she was unfazed by the strong June CPI report and that higher inflation was temporary. She said tapering could come at the end of the year.</p>\n<p>As always, lawmakers will be seeking to use Powell to score political points.</p>\n<p>Stephen Myrow, managing director of Beacon Policy Advisors, said moderate Democrats are worried that Congress is doing too little on infrastructure and will \"throw softballs\" to Powell about maintaining his dovish stance.</p>\n<p>\"I think Powell shares more in common with the Democrats than he does Republicans,\" Myrow said.</p>\n<p>Republicans will argue Democrat policies such as extra benefits for unemployed workers have actually slowed the overall recovery and increased the inflation risk, Myrow said in an interview.</p>\n<p>Stocks closed lower on Tuesday ahead of Powell's testimony, with the S&amp;P 500 index off 0.4%.</p>\n<p>The yield on the 10-year Treasury note moved up to 1.423%, still well down from the high of 1.75% reached at the end of March.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell will stress patience in Capitol Hill testimony this week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell will stress patience in Capitol Hill testimony this week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-14 05:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n Fed chairman will let lawmakers duke it out over inflation, infrastructure.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will use his two days of congressional testimony this week to stress that he is in no rush to exit the central bank's easy policy stance.</p>\n<p>\"Patience will remain the watchword,\" said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.</p>\n<p>The strong consumer price inflation report will lead to some more pointed questions, especially from Republicans eager to blame Democrats for the rise.</p>\n<p>Headline CPI beat expectations in June , rising 0.9% after a 0.6% jump in May.</p>\n<p>But Powell is not going to rewrite his testimony due to that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> report, economists said.</p>\n<p>\"If the last two inflation prints did not shift his views in a meaningful way, it is hard to see why this <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> will,\" said Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research.</p>\n<p>\"Powell's main job at this point will be to push back against the regional Fed presidents, who will only get louder in their calls to remove policy accommodation,\" Dutta wrote in a note to clients.</p>\n<p>The Fed is holding rates close to zero and buying $120 billion of Treasurys and mortgage-related bonds each month to keep interest rates low.</p>\n<p>Minutes of the Fed's June meeting show that officials had a lengthy discussion about when to slow down, or taper, the asset purchases. That is the likely first step in backing away from its easy policy stance.</p>\n<p>In general, economists think the Fed will announce its plans on tapering as soon as September and could start to taper by year's end. But economists don't agree on the timing.</p>\n<p>\"Powell doesn't want to make news, because if he's making news then it's because he said something different, something surprising,\" said Vine Reinhart, Mellon's chief economist, in an interview on Bloomberg Radio.</p>\n<p>\"He wants to say 'everything is on course.' They are worried about the pandemic, they're pleased with unfolding economic data, but there is a long way to go,\" Reinhart said.</p>\n<p>In a possible preview of Powell's message, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Tuesday she was unfazed by the strong June CPI report and that higher inflation was temporary. She said tapering could come at the end of the year.</p>\n<p>As always, lawmakers will be seeking to use Powell to score political points.</p>\n<p>Stephen Myrow, managing director of Beacon Policy Advisors, said moderate Democrats are worried that Congress is doing too little on infrastructure and will \"throw softballs\" to Powell about maintaining his dovish stance.</p>\n<p>\"I think Powell shares more in common with the Democrats than he does Republicans,\" Myrow said.</p>\n<p>Republicans will argue Democrat policies such as extra benefits for unemployed workers have actually slowed the overall recovery and increased the inflation risk, Myrow said in an interview.</p>\n<p>Stocks closed lower on Tuesday ahead of Powell's testimony, with the S&amp;P 500 index off 0.4%.</p>\n<p>The yield on the 10-year Treasury note moved up to 1.423%, still well down from the high of 1.75% reached at the end of March.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HIL":"希尔国际管理"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2151780560","content_text":"Fed chairman will let lawmakers duke it out over inflation, infrastructure.\n\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell will use his two days of congressional testimony this week to stress that he is in no rush to exit the central bank's easy policy stance.\n\"Patience will remain the watchword,\" said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.\nThe strong consumer price inflation report will lead to some more pointed questions, especially from Republicans eager to blame Democrats for the rise.\nHeadline CPI beat expectations in June , rising 0.9% after a 0.6% jump in May.\nBut Powell is not going to rewrite his testimony due to that one report, economists said.\n\"If the last two inflation prints did not shift his views in a meaningful way, it is hard to see why this one will,\" said Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research.\n\"Powell's main job at this point will be to push back against the regional Fed presidents, who will only get louder in their calls to remove policy accommodation,\" Dutta wrote in a note to clients.\nThe Fed is holding rates close to zero and buying $120 billion of Treasurys and mortgage-related bonds each month to keep interest rates low.\nMinutes of the Fed's June meeting show that officials had a lengthy discussion about when to slow down, or taper, the asset purchases. That is the likely first step in backing away from its easy policy stance.\nIn general, economists think the Fed will announce its plans on tapering as soon as September and could start to taper by year's end. But economists don't agree on the timing.\n\"Powell doesn't want to make news, because if he's making news then it's because he said something different, something surprising,\" said Vine Reinhart, Mellon's chief economist, in an interview on Bloomberg Radio.\n\"He wants to say 'everything is on course.' They are worried about the pandemic, they're pleased with unfolding economic data, but there is a long way to go,\" Reinhart said.\nIn a possible preview of Powell's message, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Tuesday she was unfazed by the strong June CPI report and that higher inflation was temporary. She said tapering could come at the end of the year.\nAs always, lawmakers will be seeking to use Powell to score political points.\nStephen Myrow, managing director of Beacon Policy Advisors, said moderate Democrats are worried that Congress is doing too little on infrastructure and will \"throw softballs\" to Powell about maintaining his dovish stance.\n\"I think Powell shares more in common with the Democrats than he does Republicans,\" Myrow said.\nRepublicans will argue Democrat policies such as extra benefits for unemployed workers have actually slowed the overall recovery and increased the inflation risk, Myrow said in an interview.\nStocks closed lower on Tuesday ahead of Powell's testimony, with the S&P 500 index off 0.4%.\nThe yield on the 10-year Treasury note moved up to 1.423%, still well down from the high of 1.75% reached at the end of March.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":174,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141628807,"gmtCreate":1625869518209,"gmtModify":1631893813499,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580565594783380","idStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Niooooo","listText":"Niooooo","text":"Niooooo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141628807","repostId":"2150434370","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141621542,"gmtCreate":1625869476286,"gmtModify":1631893813510,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580565594783380","idStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Spaceeeee","listText":"Spaceeeee","text":"Spaceeeee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141621542","repostId":"1155625151","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155625151","pubTimestamp":1625845018,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155625151?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-09 23:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Long-Term Prospects for Both Space Tourism and SPCE Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155625151","media":"investorplace","summary":"Virgin Galactic(NYSE:SPCE) stock bucked the broader market selloff today, as SPCE stock surged rough","content":"<p><b>Virgin Galactic</b>(NYSE:<b><u>SPCE</u></b>) stock bucked the broader market selloff today, as SPCE stock surged roughly 20% on a day when most of Wall Street bled red. That’s quite impressive.</p>\n<p>Why is this happening?</p>\n<p>Virgin Galactic is booming becausethey’re sending Richard Branson into space on Sunday. This will be the first passenger spaceflight<i>ever</i>.</p>\n<p>This is a huge deal. Virgin has been saying it is going to fly people into space for over a decade. On Sunday, it’s going to make that long-term dream a reality. This moment, this coming weekend’s flight, is truly the culmination of 10-plus years of scientific work.</p>\n<p>And just to be clear. We very well could see a “sell the news” event on Monday. But we don’t think that will necessarily happen.</p>\n<p>Instead, we see this first commercial spaceflight as such a momentous accomplishment that it only serves to spark more buying power in SPCE stock.</p>\n<p>We’re looking for a price above $60 by next week.</p>\n<p>SPCE Stock Is a Long-Term Winner</p>\n<p>Our bullish outlook is also supported by a favorable long-term outlook on the company.</p>\n<p>We firmly believe that the space tourism industry will unlock significant economic value, and that Virgin Galactic will capitalize on this value.</p>\n<p>For one, demand for space travel will be enormous. There are a lot of rich people out there who are willing to spend next to anything for a novel experience. And flying to space is just about as novel an experience as you can find these days.</p>\n<p>Supply will be extremely limited, since only about two companies in the entire world will be able to offer commercial space tourism opportunities in the coming years.</p>\n<p>Big demand for space tourism and low supply means attractive unit economics, high margins and loads of profits.</p>\n<p>The long-term potential for space tourism is clearly here, and so is the long-term potential for Virgin Galactic.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Long-Term Prospects for Both Space Tourism and SPCE Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLong-Term Prospects for Both Space Tourism and SPCE Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-09 23:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2021/07/long-term-prospects-for-both-space-tourism-and-spce-stock/><strong>investorplace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Virgin Galactic(NYSE:SPCE) stock bucked the broader market selloff today, as SPCE stock surged roughly 20% on a day when most of Wall Street bled red. That’s quite impressive.\nWhy is this happening?\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2021/07/long-term-prospects-for-both-space-tourism-and-spce-stock/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2021/07/long-term-prospects-for-both-space-tourism-and-spce-stock/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155625151","content_text":"Virgin Galactic(NYSE:SPCE) stock bucked the broader market selloff today, as SPCE stock surged roughly 20% on a day when most of Wall Street bled red. That’s quite impressive.\nWhy is this happening?\nVirgin Galactic is booming becausethey’re sending Richard Branson into space on Sunday. This will be the first passenger spaceflightever.\nThis is a huge deal. Virgin has been saying it is going to fly people into space for over a decade. On Sunday, it’s going to make that long-term dream a reality. This moment, this coming weekend’s flight, is truly the culmination of 10-plus years of scientific work.\nAnd just to be clear. We very well could see a “sell the news” event on Monday. But we don’t think that will necessarily happen.\nInstead, we see this first commercial spaceflight as such a momentous accomplishment that it only serves to spark more buying power in SPCE stock.\nWe’re looking for a price above $60 by next week.\nSPCE Stock Is a Long-Term Winner\nOur bullish outlook is also supported by a favorable long-term outlook on the company.\nWe firmly believe that the space tourism industry will unlock significant economic value, and that Virgin Galactic will capitalize on this value.\nFor one, demand for space travel will be enormous. There are a lot of rich people out there who are willing to spend next to anything for a novel experience. And flying to space is just about as novel an experience as you can find these days.\nSupply will be extremely limited, since only about two companies in the entire world will be able to offer commercial space tourism opportunities in the coming years.\nBig demand for space tourism and low supply means attractive unit economics, high margins and loads of profits.\nThe long-term potential for space tourism is clearly here, and so is the long-term potential for Virgin Galactic.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149410656,"gmtCreate":1625742017275,"gmtModify":1631893813520,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580565594783380","idStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"U sure bro??","listText":"U sure bro??","text":"U sure bro??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149410656","repostId":"1192592169","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192592169","pubTimestamp":1625728801,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192592169?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-08 15:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons To Stay Bullish On Stocks In The Second Half Of 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192592169","media":"Benzinga","summary":"The SPDR S&P 500 ETF(NYSE:SPY) is now up nearly 95% from its March 2020 lows, and it’s understandabl","content":"<p>The&nbsp;<b>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF</b>(NYSE:SPY) is now up nearly 95% from its March 2020 lows, and it’s understandable why some investors may be getting a bit uneasy about the big run after the S&amp;P 500 tacked on another 14.4% gain in the first half of 2021.</p>\n<p>Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier took a look back at the S&amp;P 500’s historical performance&nbsp;and found at least three reasons history suggests investors should still feel comfortable buying stocks heading into the second half of the year.</p>\n<p><b>1. Good First-Half Performance A Bullish Second-Half Indicator</b></p>\n<p>Historically, when the S&amp;P 500 has an above-average first-half return, it follows up with an above-average second-half return 77% of the time, Suttmeier said.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 has averaged a 6.3% second-half return following a strong first-half, well above its 1.7% average second-half return in years with below-average first-half returns. The average peak-to-trough S&amp;P 500 second-half drawdown following above-average first halves is -6.6% compared to an average drawdown of 10% after a below-average first half.</p>\n<p><b>2. First Year Of Presidential Cycle Bodes Well For Returns</b></p>\n<p>Historically, the second half of the first year under a new U.S. president has been underwhelming, generating an average return of just 1%. However, years in which the market performs well in the first half under a new president have produced an average return of 5.9% in the second half of the year.</p>\n<p>Following an above average first-half during year one of a presidential cycle, 67% of second-half drawdowns are in the 0% to 5% range and 78% of drawdowns were less than 10%.</p>\n<p><b>3. Strong First Halves Good News In Bull Markets</b></p>\n<p>During a secular bull market, the S&amp;P 500 has averaged a 9.1% second-half return following an above-average first-half return. In these years, the S&amp;P 500 has generated a positive second-half return 86% of the time. In addition, the S&amp;P has only experienced one historical second-half drawdown of at least 20% in these years, the Crash of 1987.</p>\n<p><b>Benzinga’s Take:</b>Looking back at market history can help investors keep things in perspective and provide some helpful insight into market tendencies. Unfortunately, past performance is not necessarily indicative of the future, and there are countless variables impacting U.S. markets in the near term.</p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons To Stay Bullish On Stocks In The Second Half Of 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons To Stay Bullish On Stocks In The Second Half Of 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-08 15:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/07/21881688/3-reasons-to-stay-bullish-on-stocks-in-the-second-half-of-2021><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The SPDR S&P 500 ETF(NYSE:SPY) is now up nearly 95% from its March 2020 lows, and it’s understandable why some investors may be getting a bit uneasy about the big run after the S&P 500 tacked on ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/07/21881688/3-reasons-to-stay-bullish-on-stocks-in-the-second-half-of-2021\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/07/21881688/3-reasons-to-stay-bullish-on-stocks-in-the-second-half-of-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192592169","content_text":"The SPDR S&P 500 ETF(NYSE:SPY) is now up nearly 95% from its March 2020 lows, and it’s understandable why some investors may be getting a bit uneasy about the big run after the S&P 500 tacked on another 14.4% gain in the first half of 2021.\nBank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier took a look back at the S&P 500’s historical performance and found at least three reasons history suggests investors should still feel comfortable buying stocks heading into the second half of the year.\n1. Good First-Half Performance A Bullish Second-Half Indicator\nHistorically, when the S&P 500 has an above-average first-half return, it follows up with an above-average second-half return 77% of the time, Suttmeier said.\nThe S&P 500 has averaged a 6.3% second-half return following a strong first-half, well above its 1.7% average second-half return in years with below-average first-half returns. The average peak-to-trough S&P 500 second-half drawdown following above-average first halves is -6.6% compared to an average drawdown of 10% after a below-average first half.\n2. First Year Of Presidential Cycle Bodes Well For Returns\nHistorically, the second half of the first year under a new U.S. president has been underwhelming, generating an average return of just 1%. However, years in which the market performs well in the first half under a new president have produced an average return of 5.9% in the second half of the year.\nFollowing an above average first-half during year one of a presidential cycle, 67% of second-half drawdowns are in the 0% to 5% range and 78% of drawdowns were less than 10%.\n3. Strong First Halves Good News In Bull Markets\nDuring a secular bull market, the S&P 500 has averaged a 9.1% second-half return following an above-average first-half return. In these years, the S&P 500 has generated a positive second-half return 86% of the time. In addition, the S&P has only experienced one historical second-half drawdown of at least 20% in these years, the Crash of 1987.\nBenzinga’s Take:Looking back at market history can help investors keep things in perspective and provide some helpful insight into market tendencies. Unfortunately, past performance is not necessarily indicative of the future, and there are countless variables impacting U.S. markets in the near term.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149858273,"gmtCreate":1625716726392,"gmtModify":1631893813531,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580565594783380","idStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Underrated company","listText":"Underrated company","text":"Underrated company","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149858273","repostId":"2149313796","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155537888,"gmtCreate":1625444364544,"gmtModify":1631893813546,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580565594783380","idStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like n reply for good luck!","listText":"Please like n reply for good luck!","text":"Please like n reply for good luck!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155537888","repostId":"1177847846","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":302,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155957096,"gmtCreate":1625371290315,"gmtModify":1633941156017,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580565594783380","idStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please&nbsp;like this comment for good luck!","listText":"Please&nbsp;like this comment for good luck!","text":"Please like this comment for good luck!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155957096","repostId":"1160702483","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":64,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152281529,"gmtCreate":1625296615461,"gmtModify":1633941621571,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580565594783380","idStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like n comment for good luck!","listText":"Pls like n comment for good luck!","text":"Pls like n comment for good luck!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152281529","repostId":"1140994998","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140994998","pubTimestamp":1625286969,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1140994998?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 12:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 of the Best Tech Stocks to Buy for July","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140994998","media":"yahoo","summary":"Tech stocks are back on the upswing.\nIt was a rough spring for the technology sector, as traders ins","content":"<p>Tech stocks are back on the upswing.</p>\n<p>It was a rough spring for the technology sector, as traders instead turned their attention to reopening stocks along withcryptocurrenciesand meme plays. However, now crypto has plunged and reopening stocks are taking on water as well amid a surge in COVID-19 virus variants.</p>\n<p>A recent Federal Reserve decision caused a big swing in interest rates, which has led to investors selling value stocks and buying growth stocks instead. As if that weren't enough, tech got another boost this week as a federal court blocked a key antitrust lawsuit against <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a> (ticker:FB). This has seemingly given the green light to other large tech companies to keep expanding their businesses as well. With all that in place, this is shaping up to be a good summer for tech stocks, including these five in particular:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a> (FB)</li>\n <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> (GOOG,GOOGL)</li>\n <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLKB\">Blackbaud</a> (BLKB)</li>\n <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKHY\">Jack Henry &amp; Associates</a> (JKHY)</li>\n <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a> (TXN)</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Facebook (FB)</b></p>\n<p>In late June, a federal court dismissed antitrust charges against Facebook. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) had claimed that Facebook was acting as a monopoly in social media. The FTC, if it had its way, would have tried to force Facebook to divest its other pivotal holdings, including WhatsApp and Instagram, to create a more competitive social media landscape.</p>\n<p>However, the federal court said the FTC failed to prove that Facebook was a monopoly. Facebook stock popped on the news and topped a $1 trillion valuation for the first time.</p>\n<p>Arguably, however, the stock should be up a lot more. Shares are still trading for just 23 times forward earnings while analysts forecast nearly 20% annual revenue growth in 2022 and 2023. Now, with the threat of government intervention gone, Facebook is even more compelling.</p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Alphabet</a> (GOOG,GOOGL)</b></p>\n<p>The court's ruling has broader implications. While Facebook was the target in that case, it's no secret that regulators have been looking at most of the tech titans as potential monopolies, perhaps none more than Alphabet.</p>\n<p>Google's search business has massive market share in online advertising. And the search business is hooked into its operating system and applications such as Gmail to extend its reach. Google's other ventures, such asself-driving carsubsidiary Waymo, could extend Google's domain into next-generation technology as well.</p>\n<p>In announcing a lawsuit against Alphabet last year, Texas' attorney general said that \"if the free market were a baseball game, Google positioned itself as the pitcher, the batter and the umpire.\" Now, however, with Facebook clear of antitrust concerns, it sets a precedent for Google to avoid a major regulatory punishment as well.</p>\n<p>Alphabet stock isn't as cheap as Facebook, but at 26 times forward earnings and approximately 15% projected annual revenue growth, it has earned its spot as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the best tech stocks to buy now.</p>\n<p><b>Blackbaud (BLKB)</b></p>\n<p>Blackbaud is a software company focused on charitable organization and K-12 schools. Its primary business is in providing software for charities to receive payments and manage their relationships with donors. The company estimates that 25% of charitable giving in 2020 occurred via Blackbaud's platform.</p>\n<p>Charitable giving was disrupted in 2020 due to the pandemic, though some organizations saw an uptick in activity as people donated in the wake of the twin tragedies of theeconomic recessionand health crisis. Still, 2020 wasn't a great year for Blackbaud. More broadly, Blackbaud has been in transition from on-premise software to a subscription cloud offering.</p>\n<p>Such transitions in tech stocks are often met with stock price weakness as investors grapple with less upfront revenue from the subscription model. That creates opportunity now, however, to buy a leading niche software player at less than 26 times forward earnings with a reopening tailwind as charities can start having in-person events once again.</p>\n<p><b>Jack Henry (JKHY)</b></p>\n<p>Jack Henry is a leading payment processing and informationtechnology company; its main clients are banks and credit unions. The company has an extremely stable business that barely missed a beat even during the financial crisis. Since then, Jack Henry stock has gone up more than 500% thanks to steady growth in the overall demand for payments and financial services.</p>\n<p>That said, Jack Henry stock has gone flat as investors fret over the health of the banking and financial system in the COVID-19 era. More recently, it has become apparent that credit-quality concerns didn't end up causing much material harm to banks. As the economy is picking up in 2021, the banks are roaring back; financials have been <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the top-performing sectors this year.</p>\n<p>With that risk now off the table, Jack Henry is primed to follow suit and blast off to new all-time highs. In addition, the company earns a significant chunk of high-margin business from mergers and acquisitions (M&amp;A) activity in the banking sector. Withbank stockssoaring, M&amp;A is on the rise, and this should directly boost Jack Henry's earnings.</p>\n<p><b>Texas Instruments (TXN)</b></p>\n<p>Texas Instruments is the leader in analogsemiconductor chips. This is a business that focuses on taking real-world parameters such as weather information and converting it into data for digital use. This line of chips is increasingly important as the Internet of Things grows and more devices than ever are online.</p>\n<p>Texas Instruments is making a particularly big push in smart cars, and should sell a large chunk of the chipsets that end up going into autonomous vehicles. In late June, Texas Instruments also announced that it's buying a fabricating unit in Utah from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a> (MU) for $900 million as the company continues to execute on its growth plan.</p>\n<p>Texas Instruments is benefiting from the current semiconductor shortage, which puts it in a good position for better pricing and profit margins going forward. The company has a prodigious growth record, having tripled its earnings per share over the past decade. Now, it trades for just 24 times forward earnings, which is quite reasonable in a bull market for the industry.</p>","source":"lsy1584348713084","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 of the Best Tech Stocks to Buy for July</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 of the Best Tech Stocks to Buy for July\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-03 12:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-best-tech-stocks-buy-171937180.html><strong>yahoo</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tech stocks are back on the upswing.\nIt was a rough spring for the technology sector, as traders instead turned their attention to reopening stocks along withcryptocurrenciesand meme plays. However, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-best-tech-stocks-buy-171937180.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TXN":"德州仪器","GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌","JKHY":"杰克亨利","BLKB":"布莱克波特科技"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-best-tech-stocks-buy-171937180.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140994998","content_text":"Tech stocks are back on the upswing.\nIt was a rough spring for the technology sector, as traders instead turned their attention to reopening stocks along withcryptocurrenciesand meme plays. However, now crypto has plunged and reopening stocks are taking on water as well amid a surge in COVID-19 virus variants.\nA recent Federal Reserve decision caused a big swing in interest rates, which has led to investors selling value stocks and buying growth stocks instead. As if that weren't enough, tech got another boost this week as a federal court blocked a key antitrust lawsuit against Facebook (ticker:FB). This has seemingly given the green light to other large tech companies to keep expanding their businesses as well. With all that in place, this is shaping up to be a good summer for tech stocks, including these five in particular:\n\nFacebook (FB)\nAlphabet (GOOG,GOOGL)\nBlackbaud (BLKB)\nJack Henry & Associates (JKHY)\nTexas Instruments (TXN)\n\nFacebook (FB)\nIn late June, a federal court dismissed antitrust charges against Facebook. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) had claimed that Facebook was acting as a monopoly in social media. The FTC, if it had its way, would have tried to force Facebook to divest its other pivotal holdings, including WhatsApp and Instagram, to create a more competitive social media landscape.\nHowever, the federal court said the FTC failed to prove that Facebook was a monopoly. Facebook stock popped on the news and topped a $1 trillion valuation for the first time.\nArguably, however, the stock should be up a lot more. Shares are still trading for just 23 times forward earnings while analysts forecast nearly 20% annual revenue growth in 2022 and 2023. Now, with the threat of government intervention gone, Facebook is even more compelling.\nAlphabet (GOOG,GOOGL)\nThe court's ruling has broader implications. While Facebook was the target in that case, it's no secret that regulators have been looking at most of the tech titans as potential monopolies, perhaps none more than Alphabet.\nGoogle's search business has massive market share in online advertising. And the search business is hooked into its operating system and applications such as Gmail to extend its reach. Google's other ventures, such asself-driving carsubsidiary Waymo, could extend Google's domain into next-generation technology as well.\nIn announcing a lawsuit against Alphabet last year, Texas' attorney general said that \"if the free market were a baseball game, Google positioned itself as the pitcher, the batter and the umpire.\" Now, however, with Facebook clear of antitrust concerns, it sets a precedent for Google to avoid a major regulatory punishment as well.\nAlphabet stock isn't as cheap as Facebook, but at 26 times forward earnings and approximately 15% projected annual revenue growth, it has earned its spot as one of the best tech stocks to buy now.\nBlackbaud (BLKB)\nBlackbaud is a software company focused on charitable organization and K-12 schools. Its primary business is in providing software for charities to receive payments and manage their relationships with donors. The company estimates that 25% of charitable giving in 2020 occurred via Blackbaud's platform.\nCharitable giving was disrupted in 2020 due to the pandemic, though some organizations saw an uptick in activity as people donated in the wake of the twin tragedies of theeconomic recessionand health crisis. Still, 2020 wasn't a great year for Blackbaud. More broadly, Blackbaud has been in transition from on-premise software to a subscription cloud offering.\nSuch transitions in tech stocks are often met with stock price weakness as investors grapple with less upfront revenue from the subscription model. That creates opportunity now, however, to buy a leading niche software player at less than 26 times forward earnings with a reopening tailwind as charities can start having in-person events once again.\nJack Henry (JKHY)\nJack Henry is a leading payment processing and informationtechnology company; its main clients are banks and credit unions. The company has an extremely stable business that barely missed a beat even during the financial crisis. Since then, Jack Henry stock has gone up more than 500% thanks to steady growth in the overall demand for payments and financial services.\nThat said, Jack Henry stock has gone flat as investors fret over the health of the banking and financial system in the COVID-19 era. More recently, it has become apparent that credit-quality concerns didn't end up causing much material harm to banks. As the economy is picking up in 2021, the banks are roaring back; financials have been one of the top-performing sectors this year.\nWith that risk now off the table, Jack Henry is primed to follow suit and blast off to new all-time highs. In addition, the company earns a significant chunk of high-margin business from mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in the banking sector. Withbank stockssoaring, M&A is on the rise, and this should directly boost Jack Henry's earnings.\nTexas Instruments (TXN)\nTexas Instruments is the leader in analogsemiconductor chips. This is a business that focuses on taking real-world parameters such as weather information and converting it into data for digital use. This line of chips is increasingly important as the Internet of Things grows and more devices than ever are online.\nTexas Instruments is making a particularly big push in smart cars, and should sell a large chunk of the chipsets that end up going into autonomous vehicles. In late June, Texas Instruments also announced that it's buying a fabricating unit in Utah from Micron Technology (MU) for $900 million as the company continues to execute on its growth plan.\nTexas Instruments is benefiting from the current semiconductor shortage, which puts it in a good position for better pricing and profit margins going forward. The company has a prodigious growth record, having tripled its earnings per share over the past decade. Now, it trades for just 24 times forward earnings, which is quite reasonable in a bull market for the industry.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":145804477,"gmtCreate":1626214553399,"gmtModify":1631893813488,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580565594783380","authorIdStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Im also stressed","listText":"Im also stressed","text":"Im also stressed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145804477","repostId":"2151780560","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151780560","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1626212400,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2151780560?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 05:40","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Powell will stress patience in Capitol Hill testimony this week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151780560","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Fed chairman will let lawmakers duke it out over inflation, infrastructure.\n\nFed Chairman Jerome Pow","content":"<blockquote>\n Fed chairman will let lawmakers duke it out over inflation, infrastructure.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will use his two days of congressional testimony this week to stress that he is in no rush to exit the central bank's easy policy stance.</p>\n<p>\"Patience will remain the watchword,\" said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.</p>\n<p>The strong consumer price inflation report will lead to some more pointed questions, especially from Republicans eager to blame Democrats for the rise.</p>\n<p>Headline CPI beat expectations in June , rising 0.9% after a 0.6% jump in May.</p>\n<p>But Powell is not going to rewrite his testimony due to that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> report, economists said.</p>\n<p>\"If the last two inflation prints did not shift his views in a meaningful way, it is hard to see why this <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> will,\" said Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research.</p>\n<p>\"Powell's main job at this point will be to push back against the regional Fed presidents, who will only get louder in their calls to remove policy accommodation,\" Dutta wrote in a note to clients.</p>\n<p>The Fed is holding rates close to zero and buying $120 billion of Treasurys and mortgage-related bonds each month to keep interest rates low.</p>\n<p>Minutes of the Fed's June meeting show that officials had a lengthy discussion about when to slow down, or taper, the asset purchases. That is the likely first step in backing away from its easy policy stance.</p>\n<p>In general, economists think the Fed will announce its plans on tapering as soon as September and could start to taper by year's end. But economists don't agree on the timing.</p>\n<p>\"Powell doesn't want to make news, because if he's making news then it's because he said something different, something surprising,\" said Vine Reinhart, Mellon's chief economist, in an interview on Bloomberg Radio.</p>\n<p>\"He wants to say 'everything is on course.' They are worried about the pandemic, they're pleased with unfolding economic data, but there is a long way to go,\" Reinhart said.</p>\n<p>In a possible preview of Powell's message, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Tuesday she was unfazed by the strong June CPI report and that higher inflation was temporary. She said tapering could come at the end of the year.</p>\n<p>As always, lawmakers will be seeking to use Powell to score political points.</p>\n<p>Stephen Myrow, managing director of Beacon Policy Advisors, said moderate Democrats are worried that Congress is doing too little on infrastructure and will \"throw softballs\" to Powell about maintaining his dovish stance.</p>\n<p>\"I think Powell shares more in common with the Democrats than he does Republicans,\" Myrow said.</p>\n<p>Republicans will argue Democrat policies such as extra benefits for unemployed workers have actually slowed the overall recovery and increased the inflation risk, Myrow said in an interview.</p>\n<p>Stocks closed lower on Tuesday ahead of Powell's testimony, with the S&amp;P 500 index off 0.4%.</p>\n<p>The yield on the 10-year Treasury note moved up to 1.423%, still well down from the high of 1.75% reached at the end of March.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell will stress patience in Capitol Hill testimony this week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell will stress patience in Capitol Hill testimony this week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-14 05:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n Fed chairman will let lawmakers duke it out over inflation, infrastructure.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will use his two days of congressional testimony this week to stress that he is in no rush to exit the central bank's easy policy stance.</p>\n<p>\"Patience will remain the watchword,\" said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.</p>\n<p>The strong consumer price inflation report will lead to some more pointed questions, especially from Republicans eager to blame Democrats for the rise.</p>\n<p>Headline CPI beat expectations in June , rising 0.9% after a 0.6% jump in May.</p>\n<p>But Powell is not going to rewrite his testimony due to that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> report, economists said.</p>\n<p>\"If the last two inflation prints did not shift his views in a meaningful way, it is hard to see why this <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> will,\" said Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research.</p>\n<p>\"Powell's main job at this point will be to push back against the regional Fed presidents, who will only get louder in their calls to remove policy accommodation,\" Dutta wrote in a note to clients.</p>\n<p>The Fed is holding rates close to zero and buying $120 billion of Treasurys and mortgage-related bonds each month to keep interest rates low.</p>\n<p>Minutes of the Fed's June meeting show that officials had a lengthy discussion about when to slow down, or taper, the asset purchases. That is the likely first step in backing away from its easy policy stance.</p>\n<p>In general, economists think the Fed will announce its plans on tapering as soon as September and could start to taper by year's end. But economists don't agree on the timing.</p>\n<p>\"Powell doesn't want to make news, because if he's making news then it's because he said something different, something surprising,\" said Vine Reinhart, Mellon's chief economist, in an interview on Bloomberg Radio.</p>\n<p>\"He wants to say 'everything is on course.' They are worried about the pandemic, they're pleased with unfolding economic data, but there is a long way to go,\" Reinhart said.</p>\n<p>In a possible preview of Powell's message, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Tuesday she was unfazed by the strong June CPI report and that higher inflation was temporary. She said tapering could come at the end of the year.</p>\n<p>As always, lawmakers will be seeking to use Powell to score political points.</p>\n<p>Stephen Myrow, managing director of Beacon Policy Advisors, said moderate Democrats are worried that Congress is doing too little on infrastructure and will \"throw softballs\" to Powell about maintaining his dovish stance.</p>\n<p>\"I think Powell shares more in common with the Democrats than he does Republicans,\" Myrow said.</p>\n<p>Republicans will argue Democrat policies such as extra benefits for unemployed workers have actually slowed the overall recovery and increased the inflation risk, Myrow said in an interview.</p>\n<p>Stocks closed lower on Tuesday ahead of Powell's testimony, with the S&amp;P 500 index off 0.4%.</p>\n<p>The yield on the 10-year Treasury note moved up to 1.423%, still well down from the high of 1.75% reached at the end of March.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HIL":"希尔国际管理"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2151780560","content_text":"Fed chairman will let lawmakers duke it out over inflation, infrastructure.\n\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell will use his two days of congressional testimony this week to stress that he is in no rush to exit the central bank's easy policy stance.\n\"Patience will remain the watchword,\" said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.\nThe strong consumer price inflation report will lead to some more pointed questions, especially from Republicans eager to blame Democrats for the rise.\nHeadline CPI beat expectations in June , rising 0.9% after a 0.6% jump in May.\nBut Powell is not going to rewrite his testimony due to that one report, economists said.\n\"If the last two inflation prints did not shift his views in a meaningful way, it is hard to see why this one will,\" said Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research.\n\"Powell's main job at this point will be to push back against the regional Fed presidents, who will only get louder in their calls to remove policy accommodation,\" Dutta wrote in a note to clients.\nThe Fed is holding rates close to zero and buying $120 billion of Treasurys and mortgage-related bonds each month to keep interest rates low.\nMinutes of the Fed's June meeting show that officials had a lengthy discussion about when to slow down, or taper, the asset purchases. That is the likely first step in backing away from its easy policy stance.\nIn general, economists think the Fed will announce its plans on tapering as soon as September and could start to taper by year's end. But economists don't agree on the timing.\n\"Powell doesn't want to make news, because if he's making news then it's because he said something different, something surprising,\" said Vine Reinhart, Mellon's chief economist, in an interview on Bloomberg Radio.\n\"He wants to say 'everything is on course.' They are worried about the pandemic, they're pleased with unfolding economic data, but there is a long way to go,\" Reinhart said.\nIn a possible preview of Powell's message, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Tuesday she was unfazed by the strong June CPI report and that higher inflation was temporary. She said tapering could come at the end of the year.\nAs always, lawmakers will be seeking to use Powell to score political points.\nStephen Myrow, managing director of Beacon Policy Advisors, said moderate Democrats are worried that Congress is doing too little on infrastructure and will \"throw softballs\" to Powell about maintaining his dovish stance.\n\"I think Powell shares more in common with the Democrats than he does Republicans,\" Myrow said.\nRepublicans will argue Democrat policies such as extra benefits for unemployed workers have actually slowed the overall recovery and increased the inflation risk, Myrow said in an interview.\nStocks closed lower on Tuesday ahead of Powell's testimony, with the S&P 500 index off 0.4%.\nThe yield on the 10-year Treasury note moved up to 1.423%, still well down from the high of 1.75% reached at the end of March.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":174,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184257408,"gmtCreate":1623716950304,"gmtModify":1634029729356,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580565594783380","authorIdStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like n reply for good luck","listText":"Pls like n reply for good luck","text":"Pls like n reply for good luck","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184257408","repostId":"1112731941","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112731941","pubTimestamp":1623716319,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112731941?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 08:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett and the Myth of the ‘Good Billionaire’","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112731941","media":"The New York Times","summary":"Illustration by The New York Times; Photograph via Getty\nWarren Buffett appears to be the safest kin","content":"<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/002912ff5cccdf9eee5a5197b6b82e93\" tg-width=\"1600\" tg-height=\"1600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Illustration by The New York Times; Photograph via Getty</span></p>\n<p>Warren Buffett appears to be the safest kind of billionaire: the good kind. Mr. Buffett is neither Zuckerbergian messiah nor Musky provocateur, neither Bezosist space cadet nor Sacklerian undertaker. He is, or seems to be, quiet, humble, indifferent to money, philanthropic and critical of the system that allowed him to rise. Years ago, a proposed tax increase was named after him.</p>\n<p>It’s easy for people to think: If only members of the Sackler family were more like Mr. Buffett, imagine how many lives would have been saved. If only the billionaires who haven’t signed the Giving Pledge would give away as much as Mr. Buffett has pledged to, imagine the impact on the world. If only more billionaires would make use of the system without feeling the need to pervert it, so many of our troubles would vanish.</p>\n<p>So I regret to inform you that Mr. Buffett is actually the most dangerous kind of billionaire we have. The worst billionaires are the Good Billionaires. The sort who make it seem like the problem is the distortion of the system when, in fact, the problem is the system.</p>\n<p>Actually malevolent and disastrously negligent plutocrats get most of the attention. And when we hear about these Bad Billionaire exploits, it is possible to conclude from them that the system needs better policing, updated regulations and maybe slightly higher taxes. The system needs to be made to work again.</p>\n<p>But as America slouches toward plutocracy, our problem isn’t the virtue level of billionaires. It’s a set of social arrangements that make it possible for anyone to gain and guard and keep so much wealth, even as millions of others lack for food, work, housing, health, connectivity, education, dignity and the occasion to pursue their happiness.</p>\n<p>There is no way to be a billionaire in America without taking advantage of a system predicated on cruelty, a system whose tax code and labor laws and regulatory apparatus prioritize your needs above most people’s. Even noted Good Billionaire Mr. Buffett has profited from Coca-Cola’s sugary drinks, Amazon’s union busting, Chevron’s oil drilling, Clayton Homes’s predatory loans and, as the country learned recently, the failure to tax billionaires on their wealth.</p>\n<p>The Good Billionaire myth took a hard blow in recent days when Mr. Buffett won a dubious distinction. A&nbsp;staggering exposé&nbsp;published by ProPublica revealed just how little the biggest plutocrats pay in taxes, despite mounting piles of wealth. And at the very top of that list of plutocrats — many of them with troubled reputations — was the cleanest, grandfatherliest plutocrat of them all: Mr. Buffett.</p>\n<p>ProPublica’s story was unusual in that, for once, it was the Good Billionaire at the top of the naughty list. This was helpful, because it served to indict the system that makes him possible, even when it is working perfectly, wholly lawfully.</p>\n<p>From 2014 to 2018, Mr. Buffett’s wealth soared by $24.3 billion, according to ProPublica. (To underline, this is just the amount the fortune grew.) The amount of taxes Mr. Buffett paid over this period? $23.7 million. If middle-class Americans in their 40s enjoyed such a low effective tax rate, they would have paid a few dozen bucks per household over this same time period. Instead, as the ProPublica story notes, they paid around $62,000.</p>\n<p>Imagine if Mr. Buffett had to pay the same fraction of the growth of his net worth that regular people do. Taxing that money could have helped pay for bridge repairs, mammograms, and free day care. More important — and this isn’t said enough — there is intrinsic value in shrinking gargantuan fortunes. The sway plutocrats have over public life is inconsistent with a one person, one vote democracy.</p>\n<p>The important point here is that Mr. Buffett’s tax payments as detailed by ProPublica are fully legal. Though Mr. Buffett has called for changing the tax system, while we have the one we have, he will continue to benefit from the madness of taxing billionaires for their income, rather than their wealth, when their income is pretty much just a number they can construct.</p>\n<p>I asked Mr. Buffett last week, via his longtime secretary, Debbie Bosanek, if he could think of even one tax or accounting practice that he has come to regret. Sure, he may have followed the letter of the law. But was there any aspect of his patriotism or humanity that left him feeling guilty for hoarding so much untaxed when regular people pay so much in taxes? Though Ms. Bosanek responded to an initial inquiry, she declined to offer any such examples.</p>\n<p>In a long statement last week, Mr. Buffett&nbsp;defended himself&nbsp;by pointing to his long advocacy for a fairer taxation system, and then he immediately told on himself by undermining the very idea of taxes in the same letter. “I believe the money will be of more use to society if disbursed philanthropically than if it is used to slightly reduce an ever-increasing U.S. debt.”</p>\n<p>In other words: I believe in higher income taxes on people like me, but I’m highly organized to avoid having income to report, and I don’t really believe in taxes because I think I should decide how these surplus resources are spent.</p>\n<p>And this points to another way in which the Good Billionaire is hard to deal with. The crooks and the scoundrels and the people manifestly looking for quick P.R. highs come to philanthropy for the marketing payoff. When Goldman Sachs announces a new initiative on fighting the racial wealth gap despite having done little to repair the damage it did to Black homeowners in contributing to the 2008 financial meltdown, some may be fooled, but, more and more, many are not.</p>\n<p>Supposed Good Billionaires like Mr. Buffett and his friend Bill Gates are more complicated because they give real money. They may benefit from marketing but also seem to many people to be motivated by more than that, and they apply their smarts to the work.</p>\n<p>Yet because of this, it is often the Good Billionaires who end up with the most illegitimate influence over public life. No one is asking members of the Sackler family for public health advice. But Mr. Gates has become a major policy voice on vaccines despite holding no elected position. Mr. Buffett, for his part, has shied away from that kind of lane hopping and richsplaining, but in donating his fortune to Mr. Gates’s foundation he has pumped up that undemocratic influence.</p>\n<p>Mr. Buffett is almost the perfectly made billionaire for this moment in which, at last, many Americans are beginning to question not only corruptions of the system but the matter of whether billionaires should exist at all. He doesn’t do the things the worst of them do. He isn’t in it for what they’re in it for. He clearly must care about money, but he also kind of doesn’t care about money. Even in his generosity, he has avoided the imperial lording over that others cannot resist.</p>\n<p>And this is what makes him so troubling, because through him we are tempted into believing that a system can be defended that allows a man to accumulate more than $100 billion while people are sleeping, in hock to him, in his mobile homes, shortening their lives with the beverages he’s invested in, scampering around the warehouses whose nonunion status has redounded to his money pile.</p>\n<p>It can’t. And who keeps us from seeing that simple, stark truth more effectively, more perniciously, than the Good Billionaire?</p>","source":"lsy1608616134662","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett and the Myth of the ‘Good Billionaire’</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett and the Myth of the ‘Good Billionaire’\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 08:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/13/opinion/warren-buffett-billionaire-taxes.html?searchResultPosition=1><strong>The New York Times</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Illustration by The New York Times; Photograph via Getty\nWarren Buffett appears to be the safest kind of billionaire: the good kind. Mr. Buffett is neither Zuckerbergian messiah nor Musky provocateur,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/13/opinion/warren-buffett-billionaire-taxes.html?searchResultPosition=1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/13/opinion/warren-buffett-billionaire-taxes.html?searchResultPosition=1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112731941","content_text":"Illustration by The New York Times; Photograph via Getty\nWarren Buffett appears to be the safest kind of billionaire: the good kind. Mr. Buffett is neither Zuckerbergian messiah nor Musky provocateur, neither Bezosist space cadet nor Sacklerian undertaker. He is, or seems to be, quiet, humble, indifferent to money, philanthropic and critical of the system that allowed him to rise. Years ago, a proposed tax increase was named after him.\nIt’s easy for people to think: If only members of the Sackler family were more like Mr. Buffett, imagine how many lives would have been saved. If only the billionaires who haven’t signed the Giving Pledge would give away as much as Mr. Buffett has pledged to, imagine the impact on the world. If only more billionaires would make use of the system without feeling the need to pervert it, so many of our troubles would vanish.\nSo I regret to inform you that Mr. Buffett is actually the most dangerous kind of billionaire we have. The worst billionaires are the Good Billionaires. The sort who make it seem like the problem is the distortion of the system when, in fact, the problem is the system.\nActually malevolent and disastrously negligent plutocrats get most of the attention. And when we hear about these Bad Billionaire exploits, it is possible to conclude from them that the system needs better policing, updated regulations and maybe slightly higher taxes. The system needs to be made to work again.\nBut as America slouches toward plutocracy, our problem isn’t the virtue level of billionaires. It’s a set of social arrangements that make it possible for anyone to gain and guard and keep so much wealth, even as millions of others lack for food, work, housing, health, connectivity, education, dignity and the occasion to pursue their happiness.\nThere is no way to be a billionaire in America without taking advantage of a system predicated on cruelty, a system whose tax code and labor laws and regulatory apparatus prioritize your needs above most people’s. Even noted Good Billionaire Mr. Buffett has profited from Coca-Cola’s sugary drinks, Amazon’s union busting, Chevron’s oil drilling, Clayton Homes’s predatory loans and, as the country learned recently, the failure to tax billionaires on their wealth.\nThe Good Billionaire myth took a hard blow in recent days when Mr. Buffett won a dubious distinction. A staggering exposé published by ProPublica revealed just how little the biggest plutocrats pay in taxes, despite mounting piles of wealth. And at the very top of that list of plutocrats — many of them with troubled reputations — was the cleanest, grandfatherliest plutocrat of them all: Mr. Buffett.\nProPublica’s story was unusual in that, for once, it was the Good Billionaire at the top of the naughty list. This was helpful, because it served to indict the system that makes him possible, even when it is working perfectly, wholly lawfully.\nFrom 2014 to 2018, Mr. Buffett’s wealth soared by $24.3 billion, according to ProPublica. (To underline, this is just the amount the fortune grew.) The amount of taxes Mr. Buffett paid over this period? $23.7 million. If middle-class Americans in their 40s enjoyed such a low effective tax rate, they would have paid a few dozen bucks per household over this same time period. Instead, as the ProPublica story notes, they paid around $62,000.\nImagine if Mr. Buffett had to pay the same fraction of the growth of his net worth that regular people do. Taxing that money could have helped pay for bridge repairs, mammograms, and free day care. More important — and this isn’t said enough — there is intrinsic value in shrinking gargantuan fortunes. The sway plutocrats have over public life is inconsistent with a one person, one vote democracy.\nThe important point here is that Mr. Buffett’s tax payments as detailed by ProPublica are fully legal. Though Mr. Buffett has called for changing the tax system, while we have the one we have, he will continue to benefit from the madness of taxing billionaires for their income, rather than their wealth, when their income is pretty much just a number they can construct.\nI asked Mr. Buffett last week, via his longtime secretary, Debbie Bosanek, if he could think of even one tax or accounting practice that he has come to regret. Sure, he may have followed the letter of the law. But was there any aspect of his patriotism or humanity that left him feeling guilty for hoarding so much untaxed when regular people pay so much in taxes? Though Ms. Bosanek responded to an initial inquiry, she declined to offer any such examples.\nIn a long statement last week, Mr. Buffett defended himself by pointing to his long advocacy for a fairer taxation system, and then he immediately told on himself by undermining the very idea of taxes in the same letter. “I believe the money will be of more use to society if disbursed philanthropically than if it is used to slightly reduce an ever-increasing U.S. debt.”\nIn other words: I believe in higher income taxes on people like me, but I’m highly organized to avoid having income to report, and I don’t really believe in taxes because I think I should decide how these surplus resources are spent.\nAnd this points to another way in which the Good Billionaire is hard to deal with. The crooks and the scoundrels and the people manifestly looking for quick P.R. highs come to philanthropy for the marketing payoff. When Goldman Sachs announces a new initiative on fighting the racial wealth gap despite having done little to repair the damage it did to Black homeowners in contributing to the 2008 financial meltdown, some may be fooled, but, more and more, many are not.\nSupposed Good Billionaires like Mr. Buffett and his friend Bill Gates are more complicated because they give real money. They may benefit from marketing but also seem to many people to be motivated by more than that, and they apply their smarts to the work.\nYet because of this, it is often the Good Billionaires who end up with the most illegitimate influence over public life. No one is asking members of the Sackler family for public health advice. But Mr. Gates has become a major policy voice on vaccines despite holding no elected position. Mr. Buffett, for his part, has shied away from that kind of lane hopping and richsplaining, but in donating his fortune to Mr. Gates’s foundation he has pumped up that undemocratic influence.\nMr. Buffett is almost the perfectly made billionaire for this moment in which, at last, many Americans are beginning to question not only corruptions of the system but the matter of whether billionaires should exist at all. He doesn’t do the things the worst of them do. He isn’t in it for what they’re in it for. He clearly must care about money, but he also kind of doesn’t care about money. Even in his generosity, he has avoided the imperial lording over that others cannot resist.\nAnd this is what makes him so troubling, because through him we are tempted into believing that a system can be defended that allows a man to accumulate more than $100 billion while people are sleeping, in hock to him, in his mobile homes, shortening their lives with the beverages he’s invested in, scampering around the warehouses whose nonunion status has redounded to his money pile.\nIt can’t. And who keeps us from seeing that simple, stark truth more effectively, more perniciously, than the Good Billionaire?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179703315,"gmtCreate":1626574744237,"gmtModify":1631893813439,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580565594783380","authorIdStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmmmm","listText":"Hmmmmm","text":"Hmmmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179703315","repostId":"1123523681","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123523681","pubTimestamp":1626569903,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123523681?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-18 08:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The story behind the savvy ‘Mystery Broker’ and where he sees the market going now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123523681","media":"CNBC","summary":"“So, there’s this guy who emails me his market outlook every so often.”\nThat’s howmy Barron’s column","content":"<div>\n<p>“So, there’s this guy who emails me his market outlook every so often.”\nThat’s howmy Barron’s column started one week nearly a dozen years ago, introducing the canny and clear-thinking financial ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/17/the-story-behind-the-savvy-mystery-broker-and-where-he-sees-the-market-going-now.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The story behind the savvy ‘Mystery Broker’ and where he sees the market going now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe story behind the savvy ‘Mystery Broker’ and where he sees the market going now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-18 08:58 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/17/the-story-behind-the-savvy-mystery-broker-and-where-he-sees-the-market-going-now.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“So, there’s this guy who emails me his market outlook every so often.”\nThat’s howmy Barron’s column started one week nearly a dozen years ago, introducing the canny and clear-thinking financial ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/17/the-story-behind-the-savvy-mystery-broker-and-where-he-sees-the-market-going-now.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/17/the-story-behind-the-savvy-mystery-broker-and-where-he-sees-the-market-going-now.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1123523681","content_text":"“So, there’s this guy who emails me his market outlook every so often.”\nThat’s howmy Barron’s column started one week nearly a dozen years ago, introducing the canny and clear-thinking financial advisor who has come to be known in print and on Twitter as the Mystery Broker, whose market color and investment calls I share on the irregular frequency with which he sends them.\nHis predictions don’t always prove prescient, but he has been more right than wrong, with a particularly impressive record of bold calls around market bottoms and ahead of corrections.\nAs noted in that first writeup in Barron’s in December 2009: “This particular guy is unique in at least two respects. He has no interest in having his name placed in print or pixels. And he is the one commentator I’m aware of who both turned aggressively bearish virtually at the all-time market peak in 2007, then in April began insisting that the March market lows would not be challenged, and that a new cyclical bull market had a long way to run.”\nThis broker’s dispatch to me in April 2009 — just weeks after the ultimate low of a wrenching 18-month bear market and terrifying global credit crisis — was a 12-page single-spaced argument that the financial crisis was over.  This was far from the consensus at the time. A November 2007 piece had called for a brutal bear market, a month after the S&P 500 hit a peak it wouldn’t revisit until 2013 and before most investors even had a bear market on their radar.\nThe intention of airing his views was not to create some gimmick or generate cheap intrigue, but simply to offer the well-grounded thoughts of professional free of institutional constraints or the need to sell investment products.\nBut it did capture readers’ attention and imagination, to the point that requests for updates of the Mystery Broker’s market take come constantly. I continue it strictly because so many readers and viewers have followed his work for years and like to keep up\nAnd, yes, the whole exercise drives some people nuts, whether they think it’s irresponsible (which makes no sense, he gets no benefit and doesn’t hype small stocks that could move in his favor) or insist it’s a fictional alter ego (untrue).\nMystery Broker’s approach\nHe became a broker in the mid-’80s. While there’s long been a guessing game about MB’s identity, he is not someone who’s name anyone would know, he doesn’t otherwise comment publicly on investments.\nAs noted back in 2009: “He doesn’t claim any magic formulas or proprietary systems. His approach is eclectic and inclusive, ranging among economic, technical, historical, valuation and sentiment inputs.” He’ll cite Marty Zweig, Ned Davis and the Value Line Appreciation Potential indicators – fairly old-school inspirations – but doesn’t seem rigidly attached to any one model or style.\nI almost never solicit Mystery Broker’s take, preferring he check in only when it strikes him, often when he changes his market stance or is moved to reiterate his conviction in a prior call. Aside from the broad market commentary, he’ll sometimes make the case for or against individual stocks. He loved wells Fargo to start 2021, as well as GE, for instance.\nMystery Broker sometimes goes deep on a controversial emerging biotech name, the sort of thing I tend not to pass along. He was put off by CNBC’s heavy coverage of the “meme stocks” early this year and let me know it. He and I both have strong views on baseball, which we exchange via email. We’ve never met.\nHow he navigated the pandemic\nIn the past few months, Mystery Broker has been cautious on stocks and has missed a bit of upside. Specifically, he went to a sell (which tends to mean raising cash for clients and himself and hedging equity holdings with index puts) at the close on April 16, with the S&P 500 at 4185. The index went sideways for two months, then lifted to last week’s record up almost 5% from where he called for a correction.\nStill, he’s playing with a lot of house money, having been deftly bullish into the teeth of the March 2020 Covid crash. (He was negative on the market from January last year, though not because he expected either a pandemic or a crash).\nThe individual calls are viewable at the #MysteryBroker hashtag on Twitter, but to cite a few examples: He thought the March 4, 2020, low in the S&P 500 near 2900 would hold; it absolutely didn’t, plunging to about 2200 by the 23rd. But on March 26 he said the bottom was in, and within a month the S&P had recovered back to 2900.\nThen, this in mid-April 2020: He would normally look for a retest of the major low, but not then: ”“Because for the first time in stock market history the consensus is for a retest, a normal retest is not likely to happen.”\nThis was right, as was his preference for riskier cyclical stocks and his update June of last year: “We are in a new bull market...every correction should be bought...every time S&P 500 falls below its 50-day moving average is an extraordinary buying opportunity.”\nS&P 500 with 50-day moving averageFactSet\nAfter that and before predicting a correction three months ago that has yet to occur, he pegged the peak in FAANMG days before they topped last Sept. 1; said in late December the market had “entered the last hurrah for growth and speculative stocks” that would pressure the  overall market but not necessarily drive across-the-board losses; and predicted bitcoin would peak coincident with the Coinbase listing (it did). Not perfect, but not bad.\nHis current outlook\nHis is not a system, but a weight-of-the-evidence approach pursued with an open mind and a feel for market cadences earned over more than three decades of economic cycles.\nFollowing up onhis latest update this week, I asked for a broader take on historical echoes and longer-term probabilities. Mystery Broker offers this:\n“I think the current recovery is most similar to the recovery in 2003-04.  A big transition from hyper-growth to value.  Also, valuations are already high after only one year of stock market and economic growth similar to 2003-4, although more extreme now. ” He expects “muted returns for the rest of decade similar to the low returns of the first decade of the 2000s.  See leadership from industrials, healthcare and to some degree financials.”\n“Don’t expect technology to be a big outperformer and semiconductors will be a disappointment especially equipment semis that have benefitted from a few big trends over the last few years. Value, foreign stocks (expect dollar to fall over the next few years) and equal-weighted indices will outperform.  Inflation and interest rates will slowly rise which is different from the last decade.\n“The big surprise will be how old industries adapt to new technology and fight off some of the hot new entries.  There will be a lot of rebounds similar to how the New York Times came back from the dead last decade.”\nI also asked if he’s interested in being identified. The answer: not now, but maybe soon.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169091032,"gmtCreate":1623808294726,"gmtModify":1631884680600,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580565594783380","authorIdStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SENS\">$Senseonics(SENS)$</a>Still lots of room to grow!!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SENS\">$Senseonics(SENS)$</a>Still lots of room to grow!!!","text":"$Senseonics(SENS)$Still lots of room to grow!!!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4ead75adaa1e2d2eb28139e8086b125","width":"750","height":"1068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169091032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":650,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112703654,"gmtCreate":1622912364978,"gmtModify":1634096939334,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580565594783380","authorIdStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comment for good luck!!","listText":"Like my comment for good luck!!","text":"Like my comment for good luck!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112703654","repostId":"1188570839","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120666760,"gmtCreate":1624321943250,"gmtModify":1634007886357,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580565594783380","authorIdStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n reply back for good luck!","listText":"Like n reply back for good luck!","text":"Like n reply back for good luck!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120666760","repostId":"1191349655","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171614586,"gmtCreate":1626741824445,"gmtModify":1631890704095,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580565594783380","authorIdStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Niceeee","listText":"Niceeee","text":"Niceeee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171614586","repostId":"2152651282","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2152651282","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1626736933,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2152651282?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 07:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Biden says inflation temporary; Fed should do what it deems necessary for recovery","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2152651282","media":"Reuters","summary":"WASHINGTON, July 19 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden on Monday said an increase in prices was ex","content":"<p>WASHINGTON, July 19 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden on Monday said an increase in prices was expected to be temporary, but his administration understood that unchecked inflation over the longer term would pose a \"real challenge\" to the economy and would remain vigilant.</p>\n<p>Biden said he told Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell recently that the Fed was independent and should take whatever steps it deems necessary to support a strong, durable recovery.</p>\n<p>\"As our economy comes roaring back, we've seen some price increases,\" Biden said, while rejecting concerns the recent increases could be a sign of persistent inflation.</p>\n<p>He said his administration was doing all it could to address supply chain bottlenecks that had pushed up the price of cars, and noted that lumber prices were now easing after spiking higher early in the recovery.</p>\n<p>\"I want to be clear: my administration understands that were we ever to experience unchecked inflation in the long term, that would pose a real challenge for our economy,\" he said. \"While we're confident that isn't what we're seeing today, we're going to remain vigilant about any response that is needed.\"</p>\n<p>Biden said he had also made that point clear to Powell: \"The Fed is independent. It should take whatever steps it deems necessary to support a strong, durable economic recovery.\"</p>\n<p>Growing concerns about inflation dragged U.S. consumer sentiment in early July to its lowest level in five months, a survey showed Friday, after a 0.9% jump in consumer prices in June, the biggest increase in 13 years, but economists continue to believe that higher inflation is transitory.</p>\n<p>The Democratic president said his plans to invest more in infrastructure, as well as better care for older people and children, would help reduce inflationary pressures in the future by boosting productivity.</p>\n<p>\"These steps will enhance our productivity, raising wages without raising prices,\" he said. \"It will take the pressure off of inflation, give a boost to our workforce which leads to lower prices in the years ahead.\"</p>\n<p>He said critics had warned repeatedly that his economic policies would lead to an end to capitalism, but economists were now predicting the United States would hit its highest economic growth rate in 40 years.</p>\n<p>\"It turns out capitalism is alive and very well,\" he said. \"We're making serious progress to ensure that it works the way it's supposed to work for the good of the American people.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Biden says inflation temporary; Fed should do what it deems necessary for recovery</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBiden says inflation temporary; Fed should do what it deems necessary for recovery\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-20 07:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>WASHINGTON, July 19 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden on Monday said an increase in prices was expected to be temporary, but his administration understood that unchecked inflation over the longer term would pose a \"real challenge\" to the economy and would remain vigilant.</p>\n<p>Biden said he told Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell recently that the Fed was independent and should take whatever steps it deems necessary to support a strong, durable recovery.</p>\n<p>\"As our economy comes roaring back, we've seen some price increases,\" Biden said, while rejecting concerns the recent increases could be a sign of persistent inflation.</p>\n<p>He said his administration was doing all it could to address supply chain bottlenecks that had pushed up the price of cars, and noted that lumber prices were now easing after spiking higher early in the recovery.</p>\n<p>\"I want to be clear: my administration understands that were we ever to experience unchecked inflation in the long term, that would pose a real challenge for our economy,\" he said. \"While we're confident that isn't what we're seeing today, we're going to remain vigilant about any response that is needed.\"</p>\n<p>Biden said he had also made that point clear to Powell: \"The Fed is independent. It should take whatever steps it deems necessary to support a strong, durable economic recovery.\"</p>\n<p>Growing concerns about inflation dragged U.S. consumer sentiment in early July to its lowest level in five months, a survey showed Friday, after a 0.9% jump in consumer prices in June, the biggest increase in 13 years, but economists continue to believe that higher inflation is transitory.</p>\n<p>The Democratic president said his plans to invest more in infrastructure, as well as better care for older people and children, would help reduce inflationary pressures in the future by boosting productivity.</p>\n<p>\"These steps will enhance our productivity, raising wages without raising prices,\" he said. \"It will take the pressure off of inflation, give a boost to our workforce which leads to lower prices in the years ahead.\"</p>\n<p>He said critics had warned repeatedly that his economic policies would lead to an end to capitalism, but economists were now predicting the United States would hit its highest economic growth rate in 40 years.</p>\n<p>\"It turns out capitalism is alive and very well,\" he said. \"We're making serious progress to ensure that it works the way it's supposed to work for the good of the American people.\"</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2152651282","content_text":"WASHINGTON, July 19 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden on Monday said an increase in prices was expected to be temporary, but his administration understood that unchecked inflation over the longer term would pose a \"real challenge\" to the economy and would remain vigilant.\nBiden said he told Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell recently that the Fed was independent and should take whatever steps it deems necessary to support a strong, durable recovery.\n\"As our economy comes roaring back, we've seen some price increases,\" Biden said, while rejecting concerns the recent increases could be a sign of persistent inflation.\nHe said his administration was doing all it could to address supply chain bottlenecks that had pushed up the price of cars, and noted that lumber prices were now easing after spiking higher early in the recovery.\n\"I want to be clear: my administration understands that were we ever to experience unchecked inflation in the long term, that would pose a real challenge for our economy,\" he said. \"While we're confident that isn't what we're seeing today, we're going to remain vigilant about any response that is needed.\"\nBiden said he had also made that point clear to Powell: \"The Fed is independent. It should take whatever steps it deems necessary to support a strong, durable economic recovery.\"\nGrowing concerns about inflation dragged U.S. consumer sentiment in early July to its lowest level in five months, a survey showed Friday, after a 0.9% jump in consumer prices in June, the biggest increase in 13 years, but economists continue to believe that higher inflation is transitory.\nThe Democratic president said his plans to invest more in infrastructure, as well as better care for older people and children, would help reduce inflationary pressures in the future by boosting productivity.\n\"These steps will enhance our productivity, raising wages without raising prices,\" he said. \"It will take the pressure off of inflation, give a boost to our workforce which leads to lower prices in the years ahead.\"\nHe said critics had warned repeatedly that his economic policies would lead to an end to capitalism, but economists were now predicting the United States would hit its highest economic growth rate in 40 years.\n\"It turns out capitalism is alive and very well,\" he said. \"We're making serious progress to ensure that it works the way it's supposed to work for the good of the American people.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155537888,"gmtCreate":1625444364544,"gmtModify":1631893813546,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580565594783380","authorIdStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like n reply for good luck!","listText":"Please like n reply for good luck!","text":"Please like n reply for good luck!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155537888","repostId":"1177847846","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":302,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155957096,"gmtCreate":1625371290315,"gmtModify":1633941156017,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580565594783380","authorIdStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please&nbsp;like this comment for good luck!","listText":"Please&nbsp;like this comment for good luck!","text":"Please like this comment for good luck!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155957096","repostId":"1160702483","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":64,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188795645,"gmtCreate":1623461269387,"gmtModify":1634032917183,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580565594783380","authorIdStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fed Up","listText":"Fed Up","text":"Fed Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188795645","repostId":"2142858202","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142858202","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1623453060,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2142858202?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 07:11","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Don't be fooled by some of the hawkish sounds coming out of the Fed next week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142858202","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Fed will remain dovish, economists say.\n\nThere are sixteen different types of hawks found in the Uni","content":"<blockquote>\n Fed will remain dovish, economists say.\n</blockquote>\n<p>There are sixteen different types of hawks found in the United States, according to birdwatchingh.com . While it may be tempting, it is too soon to add Federal Reserve policymakers to that list.</p>\n<p>Much will be made next week out of some potentially \"hawkish\" sounds from the U.S. central bank's policy meeting, economists said, while they stressed that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the majority of the voting members of the interest rate setting committee remain \"doves\" and fundamentally will be sticking to their \"patient\" stance on monetary policy.</p>\n<p>\"They are going to be a little bit less dovish than last time,\" said Jim O'Sullivan, chief U.S. macro strategist for TD Securities.</p>\n<p>U.S. inflation has been sizzling in recent months.</p>\n<p>But the recent decline in long-term Treasury yields allows the Fed to lean into the hawkish message, O'Sullivan said.</p>\n<p>While inflation has been surprisingly hot, the Fed \"is willing to wait\" until the fall to see how the labor market responds to the inflation spike, said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Wage pressures play a key role in determining the inflation outlook.</p>\n<p>\"We don't know how many people will come back into the labor market, how participation will rise, and will it be enough to dampen inflationary pressures,\" Shepherdson said.</p>\n<p>\"In the olden days, the Fed would have raised interest rates first and worried about what was going to happen afterwards. But this is a different Fed with a different strategy and a different approach,\" he said.</p>\n<p>The Fed is buying $80 billion of Treasurys and $40 billion of mortgage backed securities each month, along with keeping its benchmark interest rate close to zero, to support the economy.</p>\n<p>The central bank put itself in a bit of a box in December by guiding markets that it wouldn't slow down the pace of purchases until there had been \"substantial further progress\" in its goals of full employment and stable inflation.</p>\n<p><b>What will be the hawkish sounds?</b></p>\n<p>First, the Fed will give in to the reality that talking about tapering the size of its asset purchases makes sense. This is an important shift. Since December, Powell has managed to hold off such talk.</p>\n<p>But this is only the most preliminary of steps.</p>\n<p>Instead \"officials will talk in general straw-poll terms on what principles ought to apply,\" said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP.</p>\n<p>It won't be the Fed having a structured debate on a set of options game-planned by the staff. That might happen in July, but not now.</p>\n<p>To downplay the significance, the Fed won't say anything about the \"talks about tapering\" in its formal statement, next Wednesday afternoon, O'Sullivan said.</p>\n<p>Secondly, the Fed's dot-plot, or interest rate forecast chart, may show a shift forward for the first rate hike to come during 2023. At the moment, the Fed shows no rate hikes until 2024 at the earliest.</p>\n<p>At its March meeting, seven out of 18 Fed officials saw a hike before the end of 2023, and it could be nine or ten officials at the June meeting next week.</p>\n<p>Thirdly, the Fed will have to raise its forecast for inflation for this year. In March, the Fed penciled in a 2.2% core rate for the personal consumption expenditure index. While that may rise, the Fed won't move the core rate for 2022 much higher, a signal that it still believes the price gains seen in the last few months reflects \"largely transitory\" factors.</p>\n<p>During press conferences, Powell has said the economy is \"a long way\" from the Fed's goals and it would take \"some time\" for substantial further progress to be achieved.</p>\n<p>\"I wouldn't pound the table and say exactly what Powell is going to say but it is time to start getting away from that language,\" O'Sullivan of TD Securities said.</p>\n<p>At the same time, the Fed has got to say that while the economy has made progress, they still need to see a lot more,\" he added.</p>\n<p>When the Fed added the \"substantial further progress\" guideline, the economy was 9.8 million jobs short of its level in February 2020. At the moment, the economy is 7.6 million jobs short.</p>\n<p>None of these potentially hawkish noises will disturb the central message of Fed officials to the market -- that its benchmark interest rate will stay low next year.</p>\n<p>Even if the Fed starts to taper its asset purchases next January, economists think it will take months before the central bank is ready to take the next step and hike its benchmark interest rates off zero.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't be fooled by some of the hawkish sounds coming out of the Fed next week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't be fooled by some of the hawkish sounds coming out of the Fed next week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-12 07:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n Fed will remain dovish, economists say.\n</blockquote>\n<p>There are sixteen different types of hawks found in the United States, according to birdwatchingh.com . While it may be tempting, it is too soon to add Federal Reserve policymakers to that list.</p>\n<p>Much will be made next week out of some potentially \"hawkish\" sounds from the U.S. central bank's policy meeting, economists said, while they stressed that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the majority of the voting members of the interest rate setting committee remain \"doves\" and fundamentally will be sticking to their \"patient\" stance on monetary policy.</p>\n<p>\"They are going to be a little bit less dovish than last time,\" said Jim O'Sullivan, chief U.S. macro strategist for TD Securities.</p>\n<p>U.S. inflation has been sizzling in recent months.</p>\n<p>But the recent decline in long-term Treasury yields allows the Fed to lean into the hawkish message, O'Sullivan said.</p>\n<p>While inflation has been surprisingly hot, the Fed \"is willing to wait\" until the fall to see how the labor market responds to the inflation spike, said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Wage pressures play a key role in determining the inflation outlook.</p>\n<p>\"We don't know how many people will come back into the labor market, how participation will rise, and will it be enough to dampen inflationary pressures,\" Shepherdson said.</p>\n<p>\"In the olden days, the Fed would have raised interest rates first and worried about what was going to happen afterwards. But this is a different Fed with a different strategy and a different approach,\" he said.</p>\n<p>The Fed is buying $80 billion of Treasurys and $40 billion of mortgage backed securities each month, along with keeping its benchmark interest rate close to zero, to support the economy.</p>\n<p>The central bank put itself in a bit of a box in December by guiding markets that it wouldn't slow down the pace of purchases until there had been \"substantial further progress\" in its goals of full employment and stable inflation.</p>\n<p><b>What will be the hawkish sounds?</b></p>\n<p>First, the Fed will give in to the reality that talking about tapering the size of its asset purchases makes sense. This is an important shift. Since December, Powell has managed to hold off such talk.</p>\n<p>But this is only the most preliminary of steps.</p>\n<p>Instead \"officials will talk in general straw-poll terms on what principles ought to apply,\" said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP.</p>\n<p>It won't be the Fed having a structured debate on a set of options game-planned by the staff. That might happen in July, but not now.</p>\n<p>To downplay the significance, the Fed won't say anything about the \"talks about tapering\" in its formal statement, next Wednesday afternoon, O'Sullivan said.</p>\n<p>Secondly, the Fed's dot-plot, or interest rate forecast chart, may show a shift forward for the first rate hike to come during 2023. At the moment, the Fed shows no rate hikes until 2024 at the earliest.</p>\n<p>At its March meeting, seven out of 18 Fed officials saw a hike before the end of 2023, and it could be nine or ten officials at the June meeting next week.</p>\n<p>Thirdly, the Fed will have to raise its forecast for inflation for this year. In March, the Fed penciled in a 2.2% core rate for the personal consumption expenditure index. While that may rise, the Fed won't move the core rate for 2022 much higher, a signal that it still believes the price gains seen in the last few months reflects \"largely transitory\" factors.</p>\n<p>During press conferences, Powell has said the economy is \"a long way\" from the Fed's goals and it would take \"some time\" for substantial further progress to be achieved.</p>\n<p>\"I wouldn't pound the table and say exactly what Powell is going to say but it is time to start getting away from that language,\" O'Sullivan of TD Securities said.</p>\n<p>At the same time, the Fed has got to say that while the economy has made progress, they still need to see a lot more,\" he added.</p>\n<p>When the Fed added the \"substantial further progress\" guideline, the economy was 9.8 million jobs short of its level in February 2020. At the moment, the economy is 7.6 million jobs short.</p>\n<p>None of these potentially hawkish noises will disturb the central message of Fed officials to the market -- that its benchmark interest rate will stay low next year.</p>\n<p>Even if the Fed starts to taper its asset purchases next January, economists think it will take months before the central bank is ready to take the next step and hike its benchmark interest rates off zero.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142858202","content_text":"Fed will remain dovish, economists say.\n\nThere are sixteen different types of hawks found in the United States, according to birdwatchingh.com . While it may be tempting, it is too soon to add Federal Reserve policymakers to that list.\nMuch will be made next week out of some potentially \"hawkish\" sounds from the U.S. central bank's policy meeting, economists said, while they stressed that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the majority of the voting members of the interest rate setting committee remain \"doves\" and fundamentally will be sticking to their \"patient\" stance on monetary policy.\n\"They are going to be a little bit less dovish than last time,\" said Jim O'Sullivan, chief U.S. macro strategist for TD Securities.\nU.S. inflation has been sizzling in recent months.\nBut the recent decline in long-term Treasury yields allows the Fed to lean into the hawkish message, O'Sullivan said.\nWhile inflation has been surprisingly hot, the Fed \"is willing to wait\" until the fall to see how the labor market responds to the inflation spike, said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Wage pressures play a key role in determining the inflation outlook.\n\"We don't know how many people will come back into the labor market, how participation will rise, and will it be enough to dampen inflationary pressures,\" Shepherdson said.\n\"In the olden days, the Fed would have raised interest rates first and worried about what was going to happen afterwards. But this is a different Fed with a different strategy and a different approach,\" he said.\nThe Fed is buying $80 billion of Treasurys and $40 billion of mortgage backed securities each month, along with keeping its benchmark interest rate close to zero, to support the economy.\nThe central bank put itself in a bit of a box in December by guiding markets that it wouldn't slow down the pace of purchases until there had been \"substantial further progress\" in its goals of full employment and stable inflation.\nWhat will be the hawkish sounds?\nFirst, the Fed will give in to the reality that talking about tapering the size of its asset purchases makes sense. This is an important shift. Since December, Powell has managed to hold off such talk.\nBut this is only the most preliminary of steps.\nInstead \"officials will talk in general straw-poll terms on what principles ought to apply,\" said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP.\nIt won't be the Fed having a structured debate on a set of options game-planned by the staff. That might happen in July, but not now.\nTo downplay the significance, the Fed won't say anything about the \"talks about tapering\" in its formal statement, next Wednesday afternoon, O'Sullivan said.\nSecondly, the Fed's dot-plot, or interest rate forecast chart, may show a shift forward for the first rate hike to come during 2023. At the moment, the Fed shows no rate hikes until 2024 at the earliest.\nAt its March meeting, seven out of 18 Fed officials saw a hike before the end of 2023, and it could be nine or ten officials at the June meeting next week.\nThirdly, the Fed will have to raise its forecast for inflation for this year. In March, the Fed penciled in a 2.2% core rate for the personal consumption expenditure index. While that may rise, the Fed won't move the core rate for 2022 much higher, a signal that it still believes the price gains seen in the last few months reflects \"largely transitory\" factors.\nDuring press conferences, Powell has said the economy is \"a long way\" from the Fed's goals and it would take \"some time\" for substantial further progress to be achieved.\n\"I wouldn't pound the table and say exactly what Powell is going to say but it is time to start getting away from that language,\" O'Sullivan of TD Securities said.\nAt the same time, the Fed has got to say that while the economy has made progress, they still need to see a lot more,\" he added.\nWhen the Fed added the \"substantial further progress\" guideline, the economy was 9.8 million jobs short of its level in February 2020. At the moment, the economy is 7.6 million jobs short.\nNone of these potentially hawkish noises will disturb the central message of Fed officials to the market -- that its benchmark interest rate will stay low next year.\nEven if the Fed starts to taper its asset purchases next January, economists think it will take months before the central bank is ready to take the next step and hike its benchmark interest rates off zero.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124219285,"gmtCreate":1624766499047,"gmtModify":1633948866230,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580565594783380","authorIdStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woohoo!Pls like n comment back for good luck!","listText":"Woohoo!Pls like n comment back for good luck!","text":"Woohoo!Pls like n comment back for good luck!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124219285","repostId":"1137119316","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137119316","pubTimestamp":1624754401,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137119316?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 08:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137119316","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.With Ford  launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO  will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>\n <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>\n <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p>\n<p><b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p>\n<p>Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p>\n<p><b>Market opportunity</b></p>\n<p>In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p>\n<p>China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p>\n<p>Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p>\n<p>Turning to growth projections.</p>\n<p>With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p>\n<p>Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p>\n<p><b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p>\n<p>Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p>\n<p>Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p>\n<p>Winner here: Ford.</p>\n<p><b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p>\n<p>Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p>\n<p>Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p>\n<p>The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p>\n<p>The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p>\n<p>Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p>\n<p>Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p>\n<p>The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p>\n<p><b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p>\n<p>Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p>\n<p>Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p>\n<p>Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p>\n<p><b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p>\n<p>NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p>\n<p><b>Final verdict</b></p>\n<p>NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p>\n<p>Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p>\n<p>If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Or NIO? The Final Verdict\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-27 08:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137119316","content_text":"Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.\nNIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.\nFord vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up\nAlthough there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.\nMarket opportunity\nIn 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.\n(Source: Wikipedia)\nChina, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.\nBeijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.\n(Source:Schroders)\nTurning to growth projections.\nWith more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.\n(Source:McKinsey)\nSince China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.\nScale and manufacturing competence\nFord has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.\nSince NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.\nWinner here: Ford.\nDifferentiation and BaaS revenue model\nBoth Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.\nFord is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.\nThe difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.\nThe BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.\nFord and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.\nBattery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.\n(Source: Schroders)\nThe “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.\nSales growth and valuation\nFord’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.\nFord's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.\nData by YCharts\nThe difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!\nDue to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has larger risks...\nNIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.\nFinal verdict\nNIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.\nFord’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.\nIf you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":204,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812697632,"gmtCreate":1630580445526,"gmtModify":1631890704070,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580565594783380","authorIdStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No god no please no!!","listText":"No god no please no!!","text":"No god no please no!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812697632","repostId":"1146170136","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146170136","pubTimestamp":1630576860,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146170136?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-02 18:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Reasons The Next Stock Bear Market And Recession Could Be The Worst Since The 1930s","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146170136","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe first reason we believe the next stock bear market and recession will be the worst sinc","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The first reason we believe the next stock bear market and recession will be the worst since the 1930s is due to extremely high asset valuations.</li>\n <li>The second reason is due to extraordinarily bullish investor sentiment.</li>\n <li>The third reason is due to weak economic fundamentals.</li>\n <li>The fourth reason is due to excessive debt levels.</li>\n <li>The fifth reason is due to limited policy options.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>With the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) at all-time highs and seemingly endless “free liquidity” being provided by the Fed, the last thing most investors can envision right now is a major bear market or recession - particularly ones that will be the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s!</p>\n<p>But the facts we will detail in this article show that is&nbsp;<i>highly likely</i>&nbsp;to be the case. This is an extraordinary statement, but we are living in extraordinary times! Investors need to understand the risks they are facing now in order to prepare and profit from them in the future.</p>\n<p>Here are the five key reasons we believe the next stock bear market and recession will be worse than the Great Recession of 2008-2009 (when the S&amp;P 500 fell 58% and it took about six years to recover), which will make it the worst since the 1930s (when the S&amp;P 500 fell 86% and it took about 25 years to recover):</p>\n<p><b>1. Extremely High Asset Valuations</b></p>\n<p>Informed investors know that we are currently in an “Everything Bubble” driven by massive and persistent central bank money creation. Virtually every major financial asset is overvalued and priced to deliver low - or even negative - long-term returns.</p>\n<p>For example, the Shiller P/E Ratio shown below is 30% higher than it was at the 1929 peak and is nearly as high as the all-time high in 2000. TheShiller P/E Ratiowas created by economist Robert Shiller and is calculated as the price of the S&amp;P 500 divided by the average past 10 years of earnings, adjusted for inflation. It attempts to smooth the cyclicality of earnings. Historically, high Shiller P/E Ratios have led to below-average long-term returns.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66f9a3f8fedee54d3a30a15b70138ab5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofShiller PE Ratio, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>Warren Buffett’s favorite valuation measure- and the one that best predicts future long-term stock market returns - is the Stock Market Capitalization To GDP Ratio, which is shown below. Based on this measure, stocks are trading 30% higher than the prior all-time high at the Tech Bubble peak of 2000! Stocks would have to fall over 60% for this ratio to return to the levels it reached at the stock market bottom in March 2009.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d270087f9958674d30bed139425fe08e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>It is not just stocks that are priced to deliver poor returns. US Treasury bills and bonds are trading at historically low interest rates not far above zero (and some countries have negative interest rates), assuring very low returns until maturity. Also, corporate bond yields relative to Treasury bond yields are at historically low levels.</p>\n<p>Real estate is also expensive, with REITs trading at historically low dividend yields. And as shown in the chart below of theS&amp;P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index, home prices are currently 27% higher than they were at the housing bubble peak of 2006!</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c011c579b31844dd761b260b1adb7600\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>Importantly, not only do high valuations lead to low long-term returns but they also usually lead to devastating bear markets on the path to those low long-term returns.</p>\n<p><b>2. Extraordinarily Bullish Investor Sentiment</b></p>\n<p>Along with high asset valuations, investor sentiment is at sky-high levels of bullishness. When investors are very bullish, that is a bearish contrarian indicator.</p>\n<p>The best investor sentiment indicators show where investors are actually putting their hard-earned money in anticipation of making a profit, not just what they say their “mood” is. For sentiment, we focus on investor<i>actions</i>, not<i>words</i>.</p>\n<p>One excellent sentiment indicator is the Equity Put/Call Ratio. When investors are bearish, they buy Put options in anticipation of profiting from a fall in stock prices. When they are bullish, they buy Call options in anticipation of profiting from a rise in stock prices. When the ratio of Puts to Calls is very high, that shows investors are very bearish, which is a bullish contrarian indicator. Conversely, when the ratio of Puts to Calls is very low, that shows investors are very bullish, which is a bearish contrarian indicator.</p>\n<p>The chart below shows the Equity Put/Call Ratio, using the 100-day moving average to reduce short-term noise in this indicator. Over the past year, it has fallen to extremely low levels - well below those seen at the stock market peak in 2007.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f4ac510219add2cccd009014b44162b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofStockCharts.com, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>The next chart is the Rydex Asset Ratio, which is the ratio of investor assets in all Rydex bear and money market funds (bearish positioning) compared to investor assets in all Rydex bull funds (bullish positioning). As you can see, investors have been very bullishly positioned in US stocks for over seven years! The last time investors approached this level of bullishness was around the Tech Bubble peak of 2000.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30902a5fd01f363fd7dc95147f34735a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofStockCharts.com, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>When the majority of investors are already very bullish and “all in”, there is no one left to buy and lots of potential sellers when something changes, as it always does. Most investors will be shocked when their bullish expectations meet the harsh reality of a major bear market.</p>\n<p><b>3. Weak Economic Fundamentals</b></p>\n<p>The US economy is not as strong as it used to be. That is certainly true in the wake of the Covid pandemic, but it has also been true for the past two decades. All of the taxes, regulations and other government interventions in the economy in recent decades have created a weaker and more fragile economy that will make the next recession even worse.</p>\n<p>The chart below of Industrial Production shows it is only 8% higher than at the 2000 peak and is 1% lower than at the 2007 peak. It has nearly flatlined over the past two decades. That is much weaker than the 3.9% annual growth in Industrial Production from 1920 to 2000.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3b30a4514e3707d1aaaf03a81dd5d3d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>Total Nonfarm Employment, shown below, grew at a 2.5% annual rate from 1940 to 2000. Similar to Industrial Production, Employment has nearly flatlined over the past two decades. It has increased only 10% since the 2000 peak and only 6% since the 2007 peak. Sadly, it is still nearly 4% below the February 2020 peak.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c7778bd8479e8800718b3abdcdf0dfb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p><b>4. Excessive Debt Levels</b></p>\n<p>The chart below shows the US Total Debt To GDP Ratio is near recent all-time highs at 3.8 times (or 380%), even higher than the high levels preceding the Great Recession. Global Debt To GDP is also at record high levels over 300%, as is US Federal Debt To GDP at 125%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/563808ddc51f6a6b821f4abde5f62d17\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"242\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>Excessive debt has been the problem with every financial crisis in history, due to prior money creation out of thin air. So the next one promises to be one for the history books given these unprecedented high debt levels. Debt liquidation and defaults will lead to deflation, particularly for asset prices, as we saw in the Great Recession and even more so in the Great Depression.</p>\n<p><b>5. Limited Policy Options</b></p>\n<p>The primary “bull case” for the stock market and economy over the past 12 years since the Great Recession ended has been “free liquidity” provided in seemingly endless amounts by the Federal Reserve. It is almost as though money really does grow on trees!</p>\n<p>But money created out of thin air does not create new goods and services that improve living standards. If it did, a place likeZimbabwewould be the wealthiest country in the world. However, newly created money can flow into financial assets, which helps explain why valuation levels are so high.</p>\n<p>The graph below shows “Austrian” Money Supply (AMS), the best measure of money supply that is consistent withthis Austrian School of Economics definition(although it no longer includes traveler’s checks, which have been discontinued in the Fed’s database due to limited use these days). AMS is up 40% since February 2020 and is up an astounding 225% since the Great Recession ended in June 2009!</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3844fc699c58ff48effcc5918378bfcd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>This is well above the money supply growth that drove the Roaring ‘20s and ultimately led to the Great Depression of the 1930s, as detailed in economist Murray N. Rothbard’s definitive history of that period in his book<i>America’s Great Depression</i>. In this book, heexplained the cause of the boom and bust business cycle:</p>\n<p><i>The “boom-bust” cycle is generated by monetary intervention in the market, specifically bank credit expansion to business…[B]ank credit expansion sets into motion the business cycle in all its phases: the inflationary boom, marked by expansion of the money supply and by malinvestment; the crisis, which arrives when credit expansion ceases and malinvestments become evident; and the depression recovery, the necessary adjustment process by which the economy returns to the most efficient ways of satisfying consumer desires.</i></p>\n<p>All this money creation has enabled the Fed to target theFederal Funds Rateat only 0.1%, as shown below. While that is above the negative interest rates prevailing in some countries, it doesn’t leave much room for the Fed to cut rates to try to prevent a recession, particularly with inflation at over 5% now. And as the chart shows, the Fed cut rates throughout the prior three recessions and bear markets and was not able to stop them, since the market is bigger than the Fed. This leaves the stock market and economy very vulnerable in the next downturn, with potentially no “safety nets” to protect them.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62449341ea09ce506389102e838a6cf4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>Lastly, for the Keynesian economists who still believe the dogma that Federal budget deficits can prevent a recession - despite any evidence or logical theory to support it - the current Federal Budget Surplus/Deficit To GDP Ratio of -15% is the worst since World War II, as shown below. Given record-high government debt levels and deficits, how much more deficit spending will bond investors be willing to finance? And what good will it do, since deficits did not prevent the Great Recession?</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26c9f09598045b1c92a037cc0e326f86\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p><b>Implications For Investors</b></p>\n<p>There is much more that can be said to prove our case, but hopefully, the facts provided in this article are sufficient for investors to understand the current risks in financial assets and the economy.</p>\n<p>While the exact timing of the next bear market and recession is unknown and there are currently no signs of it with stocks at all-time highs, now is the time for investors to seek out information on how to identify the tell-tale signs of bear markets and how to profit from them, rather than being decimated by them, as the majority of investors, unfortunately, will be.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Reasons The Next Stock Bear Market And Recession Could Be The Worst Since The 1930s</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Reasons The Next Stock Bear Market And Recession Could Be The Worst Since The 1930s\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-02 18:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452860-5-reasons-the-next-stock-bear-market-and-recession-could-be-the-worst-since-the-1930s><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe first reason we believe the next stock bear market and recession will be the worst since the 1930s is due to extremely high asset valuations.\nThe second reason is due to extraordinarily ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452860-5-reasons-the-next-stock-bear-market-and-recession-could-be-the-worst-since-the-1930s\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452860-5-reasons-the-next-stock-bear-market-and-recession-could-be-the-worst-since-the-1930s","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1146170136","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe first reason we believe the next stock bear market and recession will be the worst since the 1930s is due to extremely high asset valuations.\nThe second reason is due to extraordinarily bullish investor sentiment.\nThe third reason is due to weak economic fundamentals.\nThe fourth reason is due to excessive debt levels.\nThe fifth reason is due to limited policy options.\n\nWith the S&P 500 (SPY) at all-time highs and seemingly endless “free liquidity” being provided by the Fed, the last thing most investors can envision right now is a major bear market or recession - particularly ones that will be the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s!\nBut the facts we will detail in this article show that is highly likely to be the case. This is an extraordinary statement, but we are living in extraordinary times! Investors need to understand the risks they are facing now in order to prepare and profit from them in the future.\nHere are the five key reasons we believe the next stock bear market and recession will be worse than the Great Recession of 2008-2009 (when the S&P 500 fell 58% and it took about six years to recover), which will make it the worst since the 1930s (when the S&P 500 fell 86% and it took about 25 years to recover):\n1. Extremely High Asset Valuations\nInformed investors know that we are currently in an “Everything Bubble” driven by massive and persistent central bank money creation. Virtually every major financial asset is overvalued and priced to deliver low - or even negative - long-term returns.\nFor example, the Shiller P/E Ratio shown below is 30% higher than it was at the 1929 peak and is nearly as high as the all-time high in 2000. TheShiller P/E Ratiowas created by economist Robert Shiller and is calculated as the price of the S&P 500 divided by the average past 10 years of earnings, adjusted for inflation. It attempts to smooth the cyclicality of earnings. Historically, high Shiller P/E Ratios have led to below-average long-term returns.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofShiller PE Ratio, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nWarren Buffett’s favorite valuation measure- and the one that best predicts future long-term stock market returns - is the Stock Market Capitalization To GDP Ratio, which is shown below. Based on this measure, stocks are trading 30% higher than the prior all-time high at the Tech Bubble peak of 2000! Stocks would have to fall over 60% for this ratio to return to the levels it reached at the stock market bottom in March 2009.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nIt is not just stocks that are priced to deliver poor returns. US Treasury bills and bonds are trading at historically low interest rates not far above zero (and some countries have negative interest rates), assuring very low returns until maturity. Also, corporate bond yields relative to Treasury bond yields are at historically low levels.\nReal estate is also expensive, with REITs trading at historically low dividend yields. And as shown in the chart below of theS&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index, home prices are currently 27% higher than they were at the housing bubble peak of 2006!\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nImportantly, not only do high valuations lead to low long-term returns but they also usually lead to devastating bear markets on the path to those low long-term returns.\n2. Extraordinarily Bullish Investor Sentiment\nAlong with high asset valuations, investor sentiment is at sky-high levels of bullishness. When investors are very bullish, that is a bearish contrarian indicator.\nThe best investor sentiment indicators show where investors are actually putting their hard-earned money in anticipation of making a profit, not just what they say their “mood” is. For sentiment, we focus on investoractions, notwords.\nOne excellent sentiment indicator is the Equity Put/Call Ratio. When investors are bearish, they buy Put options in anticipation of profiting from a fall in stock prices. When they are bullish, they buy Call options in anticipation of profiting from a rise in stock prices. When the ratio of Puts to Calls is very high, that shows investors are very bearish, which is a bullish contrarian indicator. Conversely, when the ratio of Puts to Calls is very low, that shows investors are very bullish, which is a bearish contrarian indicator.\nThe chart below shows the Equity Put/Call Ratio, using the 100-day moving average to reduce short-term noise in this indicator. Over the past year, it has fallen to extremely low levels - well below those seen at the stock market peak in 2007.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofStockCharts.com, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nThe next chart is the Rydex Asset Ratio, which is the ratio of investor assets in all Rydex bear and money market funds (bearish positioning) compared to investor assets in all Rydex bull funds (bullish positioning). As you can see, investors have been very bullishly positioned in US stocks for over seven years! The last time investors approached this level of bullishness was around the Tech Bubble peak of 2000.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofStockCharts.com, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nWhen the majority of investors are already very bullish and “all in”, there is no one left to buy and lots of potential sellers when something changes, as it always does. Most investors will be shocked when their bullish expectations meet the harsh reality of a major bear market.\n3. Weak Economic Fundamentals\nThe US economy is not as strong as it used to be. That is certainly true in the wake of the Covid pandemic, but it has also been true for the past two decades. All of the taxes, regulations and other government interventions in the economy in recent decades have created a weaker and more fragile economy that will make the next recession even worse.\nThe chart below of Industrial Production shows it is only 8% higher than at the 2000 peak and is 1% lower than at the 2007 peak. It has nearly flatlined over the past two decades. That is much weaker than the 3.9% annual growth in Industrial Production from 1920 to 2000.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nTotal Nonfarm Employment, shown below, grew at a 2.5% annual rate from 1940 to 2000. Similar to Industrial Production, Employment has nearly flatlined over the past two decades. It has increased only 10% since the 2000 peak and only 6% since the 2007 peak. Sadly, it is still nearly 4% below the February 2020 peak.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\n4. Excessive Debt Levels\nThe chart below shows the US Total Debt To GDP Ratio is near recent all-time highs at 3.8 times (or 380%), even higher than the high levels preceding the Great Recession. Global Debt To GDP is also at record high levels over 300%, as is US Federal Debt To GDP at 125%.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nExcessive debt has been the problem with every financial crisis in history, due to prior money creation out of thin air. So the next one promises to be one for the history books given these unprecedented high debt levels. Debt liquidation and defaults will lead to deflation, particularly for asset prices, as we saw in the Great Recession and even more so in the Great Depression.\n5. Limited Policy Options\nThe primary “bull case” for the stock market and economy over the past 12 years since the Great Recession ended has been “free liquidity” provided in seemingly endless amounts by the Federal Reserve. It is almost as though money really does grow on trees!\nBut money created out of thin air does not create new goods and services that improve living standards. If it did, a place likeZimbabwewould be the wealthiest country in the world. However, newly created money can flow into financial assets, which helps explain why valuation levels are so high.\nThe graph below shows “Austrian” Money Supply (AMS), the best measure of money supply that is consistent withthis Austrian School of Economics definition(although it no longer includes traveler’s checks, which have been discontinued in the Fed’s database due to limited use these days). AMS is up 40% since February 2020 and is up an astounding 225% since the Great Recession ended in June 2009!\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nThis is well above the money supply growth that drove the Roaring ‘20s and ultimately led to the Great Depression of the 1930s, as detailed in economist Murray N. Rothbard’s definitive history of that period in his bookAmerica’s Great Depression. In this book, heexplained the cause of the boom and bust business cycle:\nThe “boom-bust” cycle is generated by monetary intervention in the market, specifically bank credit expansion to business…[B]ank credit expansion sets into motion the business cycle in all its phases: the inflationary boom, marked by expansion of the money supply and by malinvestment; the crisis, which arrives when credit expansion ceases and malinvestments become evident; and the depression recovery, the necessary adjustment process by which the economy returns to the most efficient ways of satisfying consumer desires.\nAll this money creation has enabled the Fed to target theFederal Funds Rateat only 0.1%, as shown below. While that is above the negative interest rates prevailing in some countries, it doesn’t leave much room for the Fed to cut rates to try to prevent a recession, particularly with inflation at over 5% now. And as the chart shows, the Fed cut rates throughout the prior three recessions and bear markets and was not able to stop them, since the market is bigger than the Fed. This leaves the stock market and economy very vulnerable in the next downturn, with potentially no “safety nets” to protect them.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nLastly, for the Keynesian economists who still believe the dogma that Federal budget deficits can prevent a recession - despite any evidence or logical theory to support it - the current Federal Budget Surplus/Deficit To GDP Ratio of -15% is the worst since World War II, as shown below. Given record-high government debt levels and deficits, how much more deficit spending will bond investors be willing to finance? And what good will it do, since deficits did not prevent the Great Recession?\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nImplications For Investors\nThere is much more that can be said to prove our case, but hopefully, the facts provided in this article are sufficient for investors to understand the current risks in financial assets and the economy.\nWhile the exact timing of the next bear market and recession is unknown and there are currently no signs of it with stocks at all-time highs, now is the time for investors to seek out information on how to identify the tell-tale signs of bear markets and how to profit from them, rather than being decimated by them, as the majority of investors, unfortunately, will be.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180606548,"gmtCreate":1623200464484,"gmtModify":1634035910760,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580565594783380","authorIdStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not sure abt thatBut like and comment here&nbsp;for good luck!","listText":"Not sure abt thatBut like and comment here&nbsp;for good luck!","text":"Not sure abt thatBut like and comment here for good luck!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180606548","repostId":"1111279529","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111279529","pubTimestamp":1623200185,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111279529?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-09 08:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Biohaven CEO says drug approval is ‘monumental’ for migraine patients","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111279529","media":"cnbc","summary":"Biohaven CEO Vlad Coric told CNBC Tuesday a recent approval of the company’s migraine drug will “cha","content":"<div>\n<p>Biohaven CEO Vlad Coric told CNBC Tuesday a recent approval of the company’s migraine drug will “change the paradigm” of migraine prevention and treatment.The U.S. Food and Drug Administration last ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/08/biohaven-ceo-says-drug-approval-is-monumental-for-migraine-patients.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Biohaven CEO says drug approval is ‘monumental’ for migraine patients</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBiohaven CEO says drug approval is ‘monumental’ for migraine patients\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-09 08:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/08/biohaven-ceo-says-drug-approval-is-monumental-for-migraine-patients.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Biohaven CEO Vlad Coric told CNBC Tuesday a recent approval of the company’s migraine drug will “change the paradigm” of migraine prevention and treatment.The U.S. Food and Drug Administration last ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/08/biohaven-ceo-says-drug-approval-is-monumental-for-migraine-patients.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BHVN":"Biohaven Pharmaceutical Holding Co Ltd."},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/08/biohaven-ceo-says-drug-approval-is-monumental-for-migraine-patients.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1111279529","content_text":"Biohaven CEO Vlad Coric told CNBC Tuesday a recent approval of the company’s migraine drug will “change the paradigm” of migraine prevention and treatment.The U.S. Food and Drug Administration last week approved the medicine, Nurtec ODT, for preventative treatment of migraines. That comes about a year after Nurtec was first launched to treat the symptoms of debilitating headaches, making it the first pill approved for both acute treatment and prevention, according to Coric.\"This is a monumental approval for Biohaven and patients with migraine,\" Coric said in a \"Mad Money\" interview with Jim Cramer.\"I've been practicing medicine for 25 years, and this is the first time we have a single migraine medication that can do both of these things,\" Coric said. \"This is going to change the paradigm in which migraine is treated.\"The New Haven, Connecticut-based pharmaceutical company has recruited celebrity names like actress Whoopi Goldberg andmodel Khloe Kardashianto promote the therapy.Biohaven shares closed at $95.36 apiece Tuesday, up 6.5% from where it last traded before the announcement.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":895061458,"gmtCreate":1628695095774,"gmtModify":1631890704069,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580565594783380","authorIdStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmmmm","listText":"Hmmmmm","text":"Hmmmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/895061458","repostId":"1149859103","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149859103","pubTimestamp":1628694829,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149859103?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-11 23:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chinese Electric-Vehicle Maker Aiways Explores 2021 U.S. IPO","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149859103","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Aichi Automobile Co., an electric-vehicle startup better known as Aiways, is exploring a U.S. initia","content":"<p>Aichi Automobile Co., an electric-vehicle startup better known as Aiways, is exploring a U.S. initial public offering that could occur as soon as this year, according to people with knowledge of the matter.</p>\n<p>The Shanghai-based company is working with underwriters ahead of a listing in which it could raise about $300 million, said the people, who asked not to identified discussing information that isn’t public.</p>\n<p>An Aiways representative declined to comment.</p>\n<p>The company, which has its European headquarters in Munich, was seeking funding from investors including ride-hailing giant Didi Global Inc. to fuel its global expansion in a transaction that may have valued Aiways at more than $2 billion, Bloomberg News reported in January.</p>\n<p>Founded in 2017 by Chinese entrepreneurs Samuel Fu and Gary Gu, the startup has a manufacturing base in Shangrao, China, and has an initial production capacity of 150,000 cars a year. The automaker’s SUV, known as the Aiways U5 and currently available only in Germany, takes 35 minutes to charge to 80% from 20% and can travel more than 400 kilometers (250 miles) with one full charge, according to itswebsite.</p>\n<p>This week, Aiways said it would supply Finn.auto, a car-subscription company, with at least 500 Aiways vehicles. The company has said another vehicle, the Aiways U6, will be available in European markets in 2022 and that order books are open in Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, France and Israel.</p>\n<p>Electric-vehicle adoption is projected to steeply accelerate in coming years, with sales expected to jump to 14 million in 2025 from 3.1 million in 2020, according to areportfrom BloombergNEF. That would represent 16% of global passenger vehicle sales in 2025, though electric-vehicle sales are expected to be higher in Germany and China at almost 40% and 25%, respectively, BloombergNEF says.</p>\n<p>Other electric-vehicle makers have pursued U.S. listings through mergers with blank-check firms, including Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc., Canoo Inc. and Fisker Inc., though many stocks havetumbledfrom their peaks.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese Electric-Vehicle Maker Aiways Explores 2021 U.S. IPO</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese Electric-Vehicle Maker Aiways Explores 2021 U.S. IPO\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-11 23:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-11/chinese-electric-vehicle-maker-aiways-explores-2021-u-s-ipo><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Aichi Automobile Co., an electric-vehicle startup better known as Aiways, is exploring a U.S. initial public offering that could occur as soon as this year, according to people with knowledge of the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-11/chinese-electric-vehicle-maker-aiways-explores-2021-u-s-ipo\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-11/chinese-electric-vehicle-maker-aiways-explores-2021-u-s-ipo","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149859103","content_text":"Aichi Automobile Co., an electric-vehicle startup better known as Aiways, is exploring a U.S. initial public offering that could occur as soon as this year, according to people with knowledge of the matter.\nThe Shanghai-based company is working with underwriters ahead of a listing in which it could raise about $300 million, said the people, who asked not to identified discussing information that isn’t public.\nAn Aiways representative declined to comment.\nThe company, which has its European headquarters in Munich, was seeking funding from investors including ride-hailing giant Didi Global Inc. to fuel its global expansion in a transaction that may have valued Aiways at more than $2 billion, Bloomberg News reported in January.\nFounded in 2017 by Chinese entrepreneurs Samuel Fu and Gary Gu, the startup has a manufacturing base in Shangrao, China, and has an initial production capacity of 150,000 cars a year. The automaker’s SUV, known as the Aiways U5 and currently available only in Germany, takes 35 minutes to charge to 80% from 20% and can travel more than 400 kilometers (250 miles) with one full charge, according to itswebsite.\nThis week, Aiways said it would supply Finn.auto, a car-subscription company, with at least 500 Aiways vehicles. The company has said another vehicle, the Aiways U6, will be available in European markets in 2022 and that order books are open in Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, France and Israel.\nElectric-vehicle adoption is projected to steeply accelerate in coming years, with sales expected to jump to 14 million in 2025 from 3.1 million in 2020, according to areportfrom BloombergNEF. That would represent 16% of global passenger vehicle sales in 2025, though electric-vehicle sales are expected to be higher in Germany and China at almost 40% and 25%, respectively, BloombergNEF says.\nOther electric-vehicle makers have pursued U.S. listings through mergers with blank-check firms, including Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc., Canoo Inc. and Fisker Inc., though many stocks havetumbledfrom their peaks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141628807,"gmtCreate":1625869518209,"gmtModify":1631893813499,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580565594783380","authorIdStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Niooooo","listText":"Niooooo","text":"Niooooo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141628807","repostId":"2150434370","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182740968,"gmtCreate":1623624169654,"gmtModify":1634031188902,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580565594783380","authorIdStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182740968","repostId":"1185020128","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185020128","pubTimestamp":1623537503,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185020128?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-13 06:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185020128","media":"investors","summary":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ","content":"<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.</p>\n<p>The $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.</p>\n<p>That more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.</p>\n<p>Back to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each.&nbsp;Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.</p>\n<p>SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.</p>\n<p><b>GameStop Stock Leads</b></p>\n<p><b>GameStop</b>(GME),<b>Macy's</b>(M),<b>PDC Energy</b>(PDCE),<b>Resideo Technologies</b>(REZI) and<b>BankUnited</b>(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.</p>\n<p><b>Pacific Premier Bancorp</b>(PPBI),<b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>(BBBY),<b>Ameris Bancorp</b>(ABCB),<b>First Hawaiian</b>(FHB) and<b>Insight Enterprises</b>(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.</p>\n<p>GameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.</p>\n<p>Action had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.</p>\n<p>Could GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.</p>\n<p><b>Second Meme Stock In Top 10</b></p>\n<p>PDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.</p>\n<p>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.</p>\n<p>But the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.</p>\n<p>The rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&amp;P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.</p>\n<p>SLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis.&nbsp;SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.</p>","source":"lsy1610449120050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-13 06:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220><strong>investors</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.\nThe $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&P SmallCap 600...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PDCE":"PDC Energy","BBBY":"3B家居"},"source_url":"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185020128","content_text":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.\nThe $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.\nThat more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.\nBack to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each. Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.\nSPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.\nGameStop Stock Leads\nGameStop(GME),Macy's(M),PDC Energy(PDCE),Resideo Technologies(REZI) andBankUnited(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.\nPacific Premier Bancorp(PPBI),Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY),Ameris Bancorp(ABCB),First Hawaiian(FHB) andInsight Enterprises(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.\nGameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.\nAction had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.\nCould GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.\nSecond Meme Stock In Top 10\nPDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.\nBed Bath & Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.\nBut the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath & Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.\nThe rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.\nSLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis. SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199269348,"gmtCreate":1620708413384,"gmtModify":1634196927484,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580565594783380","authorIdStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Damn!!","listText":"Damn!!","text":"Damn!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199269348","repostId":"2134965203","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2134965203","pubTimestamp":1620704756,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2134965203?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-11 11:45","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Markets tumble in Asia as inflation fears haunt trading floors","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2134965203","media":"The Straits Times","summary":"HONG KONG (AFP) - Equity markets tumbled in Asian trade on Tuesday (May 11) following steep losses o","content":"<div>\n<p>HONG KONG (AFP) - Equity markets tumbled in Asian trade on Tuesday (May 11) following steep losses on Wall Street as investors grow increasingly worried about a surge in inflation that could force ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/markets-tumble-in-asia-as-inflation-fears-haunt-trading-floors\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"straits_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Markets tumble in Asia as inflation fears haunt trading floors</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarkets tumble in Asia as inflation fears haunt trading floors\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-11 11:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/markets-tumble-in-asia-as-inflation-fears-haunt-trading-floors><strong>The Straits Times</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>HONG KONG (AFP) - Equity markets tumbled in Asian trade on Tuesday (May 11) following steep losses on Wall Street as investors grow increasingly worried about a surge in inflation that could force ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/markets-tumble-in-asia-as-inflation-fears-haunt-trading-floors\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"00662":"亚洲金融"},"source_url":"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/markets-tumble-in-asia-as-inflation-fears-haunt-trading-floors","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2134965203","content_text":"HONG KONG (AFP) - Equity markets tumbled in Asian trade on Tuesday (May 11) following steep losses on Wall Street as investors grow increasingly worried about a surge in inflation that could force central banks to wind back their ultra-loose monetary policies earlier than forecast.\nAll eyes are on the release this week of crucial data on US retail sales and consumer prices, with expectations for a sharp rise as the world's top economy reopens and vaccines allow people to return to a sense of normality.\nNervousness ahead of the US data sent traders rushing for the doors on Monday. The Dow snapped a three-day streak of records and the S&P 500 lost more than one per cent, while the Nasdaq shed 2.6 per cent with tech firms considered vulnerable to higher borrowing costs.\nAnd Asia followed the lead, with Tokyo, Hong Kong and Taipei all down more than two per cent, while Sydney and Seoul shed more than one per cent with big falls also seen in Shanghai, Singapore, Wellington and Jakarta.\nSingapore's Straits Index was down 0.8 per cent at 10.29am local time.\nA massive miss on US jobs creation last week that indicated the recovery was not going to be as smooth as thought provided some relief from those fears but a rally in commodities - particularly widely used copper and iron ore - has markets concerned that costs will spiral.\nSigns that this is having an effect were seen in data from China that showed prices paid at the country's factory gates rose last month at their fastest pace in four years.\nThose worries continue to hover over trading floors, despite repeated assurances from the Federal Reserve that it will stick to its huge bond-buying and record-low interest rate position for as long as needed until it has unemployment tamed and inflation is running consistently hot.\nWhile Fed bosses have said they see inflation coming in high for a few weeks owing to the low base of comparison from last year, a high reading would ramp up pressure on policymakers to make sure they do not let it get out of hand.\n\"Inflationary concerns will dominate the focus this week, but the base effects are widely priced in and this upcoming reading will likely only serve as a baseline,\" said OANDA strategist Edward Moya.\nAnd there is a feeling that the issue will dog markets for some time, even as investors are confident the global economy is well on the recovery path.\n\"We're going to see volatility definitely over the next couple of months\" given uncertainty over the path of growth, Kristen Bitterly, of Citi Private Bank, told Bloomberg TV.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":396,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887678140,"gmtCreate":1632035723580,"gmtModify":1632803189282,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580565594783380","authorIdStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noooo","listText":"Noooo","text":"Noooo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887678140","repostId":"1146170136","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146170136","pubTimestamp":1630576860,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146170136?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-02 18:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Reasons The Next Stock Bear Market And Recession Could Be The Worst Since The 1930s","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146170136","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe first reason we believe the next stock bear market and recession will be the worst sinc","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The first reason we believe the next stock bear market and recession will be the worst since the 1930s is due to extremely high asset valuations.</li>\n <li>The second reason is due to extraordinarily bullish investor sentiment.</li>\n <li>The third reason is due to weak economic fundamentals.</li>\n <li>The fourth reason is due to excessive debt levels.</li>\n <li>The fifth reason is due to limited policy options.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>With the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) at all-time highs and seemingly endless “free liquidity” being provided by the Fed, the last thing most investors can envision right now is a major bear market or recession - particularly ones that will be the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s!</p>\n<p>But the facts we will detail in this article show that is&nbsp;<i>highly likely</i>&nbsp;to be the case. This is an extraordinary statement, but we are living in extraordinary times! Investors need to understand the risks they are facing now in order to prepare and profit from them in the future.</p>\n<p>Here are the five key reasons we believe the next stock bear market and recession will be worse than the Great Recession of 2008-2009 (when the S&amp;P 500 fell 58% and it took about six years to recover), which will make it the worst since the 1930s (when the S&amp;P 500 fell 86% and it took about 25 years to recover):</p>\n<p><b>1. Extremely High Asset Valuations</b></p>\n<p>Informed investors know that we are currently in an “Everything Bubble” driven by massive and persistent central bank money creation. Virtually every major financial asset is overvalued and priced to deliver low - or even negative - long-term returns.</p>\n<p>For example, the Shiller P/E Ratio shown below is 30% higher than it was at the 1929 peak and is nearly as high as the all-time high in 2000. TheShiller P/E Ratiowas created by economist Robert Shiller and is calculated as the price of the S&amp;P 500 divided by the average past 10 years of earnings, adjusted for inflation. It attempts to smooth the cyclicality of earnings. Historically, high Shiller P/E Ratios have led to below-average long-term returns.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66f9a3f8fedee54d3a30a15b70138ab5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofShiller PE Ratio, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>Warren Buffett’s favorite valuation measure- and the one that best predicts future long-term stock market returns - is the Stock Market Capitalization To GDP Ratio, which is shown below. Based on this measure, stocks are trading 30% higher than the prior all-time high at the Tech Bubble peak of 2000! Stocks would have to fall over 60% for this ratio to return to the levels it reached at the stock market bottom in March 2009.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d270087f9958674d30bed139425fe08e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>It is not just stocks that are priced to deliver poor returns. US Treasury bills and bonds are trading at historically low interest rates not far above zero (and some countries have negative interest rates), assuring very low returns until maturity. Also, corporate bond yields relative to Treasury bond yields are at historically low levels.</p>\n<p>Real estate is also expensive, with REITs trading at historically low dividend yields. And as shown in the chart below of theS&amp;P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index, home prices are currently 27% higher than they were at the housing bubble peak of 2006!</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c011c579b31844dd761b260b1adb7600\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>Importantly, not only do high valuations lead to low long-term returns but they also usually lead to devastating bear markets on the path to those low long-term returns.</p>\n<p><b>2. Extraordinarily Bullish Investor Sentiment</b></p>\n<p>Along with high asset valuations, investor sentiment is at sky-high levels of bullishness. When investors are very bullish, that is a bearish contrarian indicator.</p>\n<p>The best investor sentiment indicators show where investors are actually putting their hard-earned money in anticipation of making a profit, not just what they say their “mood” is. For sentiment, we focus on investor<i>actions</i>, not<i>words</i>.</p>\n<p>One excellent sentiment indicator is the Equity Put/Call Ratio. When investors are bearish, they buy Put options in anticipation of profiting from a fall in stock prices. When they are bullish, they buy Call options in anticipation of profiting from a rise in stock prices. When the ratio of Puts to Calls is very high, that shows investors are very bearish, which is a bullish contrarian indicator. Conversely, when the ratio of Puts to Calls is very low, that shows investors are very bullish, which is a bearish contrarian indicator.</p>\n<p>The chart below shows the Equity Put/Call Ratio, using the 100-day moving average to reduce short-term noise in this indicator. Over the past year, it has fallen to extremely low levels - well below those seen at the stock market peak in 2007.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f4ac510219add2cccd009014b44162b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofStockCharts.com, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>The next chart is the Rydex Asset Ratio, which is the ratio of investor assets in all Rydex bear and money market funds (bearish positioning) compared to investor assets in all Rydex bull funds (bullish positioning). As you can see, investors have been very bullishly positioned in US stocks for over seven years! The last time investors approached this level of bullishness was around the Tech Bubble peak of 2000.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30902a5fd01f363fd7dc95147f34735a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofStockCharts.com, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>When the majority of investors are already very bullish and “all in”, there is no one left to buy and lots of potential sellers when something changes, as it always does. Most investors will be shocked when their bullish expectations meet the harsh reality of a major bear market.</p>\n<p><b>3. Weak Economic Fundamentals</b></p>\n<p>The US economy is not as strong as it used to be. That is certainly true in the wake of the Covid pandemic, but it has also been true for the past two decades. All of the taxes, regulations and other government interventions in the economy in recent decades have created a weaker and more fragile economy that will make the next recession even worse.</p>\n<p>The chart below of Industrial Production shows it is only 8% higher than at the 2000 peak and is 1% lower than at the 2007 peak. It has nearly flatlined over the past two decades. That is much weaker than the 3.9% annual growth in Industrial Production from 1920 to 2000.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3b30a4514e3707d1aaaf03a81dd5d3d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>Total Nonfarm Employment, shown below, grew at a 2.5% annual rate from 1940 to 2000. Similar to Industrial Production, Employment has nearly flatlined over the past two decades. It has increased only 10% since the 2000 peak and only 6% since the 2007 peak. Sadly, it is still nearly 4% below the February 2020 peak.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c7778bd8479e8800718b3abdcdf0dfb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p><b>4. Excessive Debt Levels</b></p>\n<p>The chart below shows the US Total Debt To GDP Ratio is near recent all-time highs at 3.8 times (or 380%), even higher than the high levels preceding the Great Recession. Global Debt To GDP is also at record high levels over 300%, as is US Federal Debt To GDP at 125%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/563808ddc51f6a6b821f4abde5f62d17\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"242\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>Excessive debt has been the problem with every financial crisis in history, due to prior money creation out of thin air. So the next one promises to be one for the history books given these unprecedented high debt levels. Debt liquidation and defaults will lead to deflation, particularly for asset prices, as we saw in the Great Recession and even more so in the Great Depression.</p>\n<p><b>5. Limited Policy Options</b></p>\n<p>The primary “bull case” for the stock market and economy over the past 12 years since the Great Recession ended has been “free liquidity” provided in seemingly endless amounts by the Federal Reserve. It is almost as though money really does grow on trees!</p>\n<p>But money created out of thin air does not create new goods and services that improve living standards. If it did, a place likeZimbabwewould be the wealthiest country in the world. However, newly created money can flow into financial assets, which helps explain why valuation levels are so high.</p>\n<p>The graph below shows “Austrian” Money Supply (AMS), the best measure of money supply that is consistent withthis Austrian School of Economics definition(although it no longer includes traveler’s checks, which have been discontinued in the Fed’s database due to limited use these days). AMS is up 40% since February 2020 and is up an astounding 225% since the Great Recession ended in June 2009!</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3844fc699c58ff48effcc5918378bfcd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>This is well above the money supply growth that drove the Roaring ‘20s and ultimately led to the Great Depression of the 1930s, as detailed in economist Murray N. Rothbard’s definitive history of that period in his book<i>America’s Great Depression</i>. In this book, heexplained the cause of the boom and bust business cycle:</p>\n<p><i>The “boom-bust” cycle is generated by monetary intervention in the market, specifically bank credit expansion to business…[B]ank credit expansion sets into motion the business cycle in all its phases: the inflationary boom, marked by expansion of the money supply and by malinvestment; the crisis, which arrives when credit expansion ceases and malinvestments become evident; and the depression recovery, the necessary adjustment process by which the economy returns to the most efficient ways of satisfying consumer desires.</i></p>\n<p>All this money creation has enabled the Fed to target theFederal Funds Rateat only 0.1%, as shown below. While that is above the negative interest rates prevailing in some countries, it doesn’t leave much room for the Fed to cut rates to try to prevent a recession, particularly with inflation at over 5% now. And as the chart shows, the Fed cut rates throughout the prior three recessions and bear markets and was not able to stop them, since the market is bigger than the Fed. This leaves the stock market and economy very vulnerable in the next downturn, with potentially no “safety nets” to protect them.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62449341ea09ce506389102e838a6cf4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p>Lastly, for the Keynesian economists who still believe the dogma that Federal budget deficits can prevent a recession - despite any evidence or logical theory to support it - the current Federal Budget Surplus/Deficit To GDP Ratio of -15% is the worst since World War II, as shown below. Given record-high government debt levels and deficits, how much more deficit spending will bond investors be willing to finance? And what good will it do, since deficits did not prevent the Great Recession?</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26c9f09598045b1c92a037cc0e326f86\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.</span></p>\n<p><b>Implications For Investors</b></p>\n<p>There is much more that can be said to prove our case, but hopefully, the facts provided in this article are sufficient for investors to understand the current risks in financial assets and the economy.</p>\n<p>While the exact timing of the next bear market and recession is unknown and there are currently no signs of it with stocks at all-time highs, now is the time for investors to seek out information on how to identify the tell-tale signs of bear markets and how to profit from them, rather than being decimated by them, as the majority of investors, unfortunately, will be.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Reasons The Next Stock Bear Market And Recession Could Be The Worst Since The 1930s</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Reasons The Next Stock Bear Market And Recession Could Be The Worst Since The 1930s\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-02 18:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452860-5-reasons-the-next-stock-bear-market-and-recession-could-be-the-worst-since-the-1930s><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe first reason we believe the next stock bear market and recession will be the worst since the 1930s is due to extremely high asset valuations.\nThe second reason is due to extraordinarily ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452860-5-reasons-the-next-stock-bear-market-and-recession-could-be-the-worst-since-the-1930s\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452860-5-reasons-the-next-stock-bear-market-and-recession-could-be-the-worst-since-the-1930s","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1146170136","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe first reason we believe the next stock bear market and recession will be the worst since the 1930s is due to extremely high asset valuations.\nThe second reason is due to extraordinarily bullish investor sentiment.\nThe third reason is due to weak economic fundamentals.\nThe fourth reason is due to excessive debt levels.\nThe fifth reason is due to limited policy options.\n\nWith the S&P 500 (SPY) at all-time highs and seemingly endless “free liquidity” being provided by the Fed, the last thing most investors can envision right now is a major bear market or recession - particularly ones that will be the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s!\nBut the facts we will detail in this article show that is highly likely to be the case. This is an extraordinary statement, but we are living in extraordinary times! Investors need to understand the risks they are facing now in order to prepare and profit from them in the future.\nHere are the five key reasons we believe the next stock bear market and recession will be worse than the Great Recession of 2008-2009 (when the S&P 500 fell 58% and it took about six years to recover), which will make it the worst since the 1930s (when the S&P 500 fell 86% and it took about 25 years to recover):\n1. Extremely High Asset Valuations\nInformed investors know that we are currently in an “Everything Bubble” driven by massive and persistent central bank money creation. Virtually every major financial asset is overvalued and priced to deliver low - or even negative - long-term returns.\nFor example, the Shiller P/E Ratio shown below is 30% higher than it was at the 1929 peak and is nearly as high as the all-time high in 2000. TheShiller P/E Ratiowas created by economist Robert Shiller and is calculated as the price of the S&P 500 divided by the average past 10 years of earnings, adjusted for inflation. It attempts to smooth the cyclicality of earnings. Historically, high Shiller P/E Ratios have led to below-average long-term returns.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofShiller PE Ratio, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nWarren Buffett’s favorite valuation measure- and the one that best predicts future long-term stock market returns - is the Stock Market Capitalization To GDP Ratio, which is shown below. Based on this measure, stocks are trading 30% higher than the prior all-time high at the Tech Bubble peak of 2000! Stocks would have to fall over 60% for this ratio to return to the levels it reached at the stock market bottom in March 2009.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nIt is not just stocks that are priced to deliver poor returns. US Treasury bills and bonds are trading at historically low interest rates not far above zero (and some countries have negative interest rates), assuring very low returns until maturity. Also, corporate bond yields relative to Treasury bond yields are at historically low levels.\nReal estate is also expensive, with REITs trading at historically low dividend yields. And as shown in the chart below of theS&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index, home prices are currently 27% higher than they were at the housing bubble peak of 2006!\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nImportantly, not only do high valuations lead to low long-term returns but they also usually lead to devastating bear markets on the path to those low long-term returns.\n2. Extraordinarily Bullish Investor Sentiment\nAlong with high asset valuations, investor sentiment is at sky-high levels of bullishness. When investors are very bullish, that is a bearish contrarian indicator.\nThe best investor sentiment indicators show where investors are actually putting their hard-earned money in anticipation of making a profit, not just what they say their “mood” is. For sentiment, we focus on investoractions, notwords.\nOne excellent sentiment indicator is the Equity Put/Call Ratio. When investors are bearish, they buy Put options in anticipation of profiting from a fall in stock prices. When they are bullish, they buy Call options in anticipation of profiting from a rise in stock prices. When the ratio of Puts to Calls is very high, that shows investors are very bearish, which is a bullish contrarian indicator. Conversely, when the ratio of Puts to Calls is very low, that shows investors are very bullish, which is a bearish contrarian indicator.\nThe chart below shows the Equity Put/Call Ratio, using the 100-day moving average to reduce short-term noise in this indicator. Over the past year, it has fallen to extremely low levels - well below those seen at the stock market peak in 2007.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofStockCharts.com, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nThe next chart is the Rydex Asset Ratio, which is the ratio of investor assets in all Rydex bear and money market funds (bearish positioning) compared to investor assets in all Rydex bull funds (bullish positioning). As you can see, investors have been very bullishly positioned in US stocks for over seven years! The last time investors approached this level of bullishness was around the Tech Bubble peak of 2000.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofStockCharts.com, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nWhen the majority of investors are already very bullish and “all in”, there is no one left to buy and lots of potential sellers when something changes, as it always does. Most investors will be shocked when their bullish expectations meet the harsh reality of a major bear market.\n3. Weak Economic Fundamentals\nThe US economy is not as strong as it used to be. That is certainly true in the wake of the Covid pandemic, but it has also been true for the past two decades. All of the taxes, regulations and other government interventions in the economy in recent decades have created a weaker and more fragile economy that will make the next recession even worse.\nThe chart below of Industrial Production shows it is only 8% higher than at the 2000 peak and is 1% lower than at the 2007 peak. It has nearly flatlined over the past two decades. That is much weaker than the 3.9% annual growth in Industrial Production from 1920 to 2000.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nTotal Nonfarm Employment, shown below, grew at a 2.5% annual rate from 1940 to 2000. Similar to Industrial Production, Employment has nearly flatlined over the past two decades. It has increased only 10% since the 2000 peak and only 6% since the 2007 peak. Sadly, it is still nearly 4% below the February 2020 peak.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\n4. Excessive Debt Levels\nThe chart below shows the US Total Debt To GDP Ratio is near recent all-time highs at 3.8 times (or 380%), even higher than the high levels preceding the Great Recession. Global Debt To GDP is also at record high levels over 300%, as is US Federal Debt To GDP at 125%.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nExcessive debt has been the problem with every financial crisis in history, due to prior money creation out of thin air. So the next one promises to be one for the history books given these unprecedented high debt levels. Debt liquidation and defaults will lead to deflation, particularly for asset prices, as we saw in the Great Recession and even more so in the Great Depression.\n5. Limited Policy Options\nThe primary “bull case” for the stock market and economy over the past 12 years since the Great Recession ended has been “free liquidity” provided in seemingly endless amounts by the Federal Reserve. It is almost as though money really does grow on trees!\nBut money created out of thin air does not create new goods and services that improve living standards. If it did, a place likeZimbabwewould be the wealthiest country in the world. However, newly created money can flow into financial assets, which helps explain why valuation levels are so high.\nThe graph below shows “Austrian” Money Supply (AMS), the best measure of money supply that is consistent withthis Austrian School of Economics definition(although it no longer includes traveler’s checks, which have been discontinued in the Fed’s database due to limited use these days). AMS is up 40% since February 2020 and is up an astounding 225% since the Great Recession ended in June 2009!\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nThis is well above the money supply growth that drove the Roaring ‘20s and ultimately led to the Great Depression of the 1930s, as detailed in economist Murray N. Rothbard’s definitive history of that period in his bookAmerica’s Great Depression. In this book, heexplained the cause of the boom and bust business cycle:\nThe “boom-bust” cycle is generated by monetary intervention in the market, specifically bank credit expansion to business…[B]ank credit expansion sets into motion the business cycle in all its phases: the inflationary boom, marked by expansion of the money supply and by malinvestment; the crisis, which arrives when credit expansion ceases and malinvestments become evident; and the depression recovery, the necessary adjustment process by which the economy returns to the most efficient ways of satisfying consumer desires.\nAll this money creation has enabled the Fed to target theFederal Funds Rateat only 0.1%, as shown below. While that is above the negative interest rates prevailing in some countries, it doesn’t leave much room for the Fed to cut rates to try to prevent a recession, particularly with inflation at over 5% now. And as the chart shows, the Fed cut rates throughout the prior three recessions and bear markets and was not able to stop them, since the market is bigger than the Fed. This leaves the stock market and economy very vulnerable in the next downturn, with potentially no “safety nets” to protect them.\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nLastly, for the Keynesian economists who still believe the dogma that Federal budget deficits can prevent a recession - despite any evidence or logical theory to support it - the current Federal Budget Surplus/Deficit To GDP Ratio of -15% is the worst since World War II, as shown below. Given record-high government debt levels and deficits, how much more deficit spending will bond investors be willing to finance? And what good will it do, since deficits did not prevent the Great Recession?\nSource: Chart courtesy ofFRED, with annotations by Jon Wolfenbarger, CFA.\nImplications For Investors\nThere is much more that can be said to prove our case, but hopefully, the facts provided in this article are sufficient for investors to understand the current risks in financial assets and the economy.\nWhile the exact timing of the next bear market and recession is unknown and there are currently no signs of it with stocks at all-time highs, now is the time for investors to seek out information on how to identify the tell-tale signs of bear markets and how to profit from them, rather than being decimated by them, as the majority of investors, unfortunately, will be.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149410656,"gmtCreate":1625742017275,"gmtModify":1631893813520,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580565594783380","authorIdStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"U sure bro??","listText":"U sure bro??","text":"U sure bro??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149410656","repostId":"1192592169","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192592169","pubTimestamp":1625728801,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192592169?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-08 15:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons To Stay Bullish On Stocks In The Second Half Of 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192592169","media":"Benzinga","summary":"The SPDR S&P 500 ETF(NYSE:SPY) is now up nearly 95% from its March 2020 lows, and it’s understandabl","content":"<p>The&nbsp;<b>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF</b>(NYSE:SPY) is now up nearly 95% from its March 2020 lows, and it’s understandable why some investors may be getting a bit uneasy about the big run after the S&amp;P 500 tacked on another 14.4% gain in the first half of 2021.</p>\n<p>Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier took a look back at the S&amp;P 500’s historical performance&nbsp;and found at least three reasons history suggests investors should still feel comfortable buying stocks heading into the second half of the year.</p>\n<p><b>1. Good First-Half Performance A Bullish Second-Half Indicator</b></p>\n<p>Historically, when the S&amp;P 500 has an above-average first-half return, it follows up with an above-average second-half return 77% of the time, Suttmeier said.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 has averaged a 6.3% second-half return following a strong first-half, well above its 1.7% average second-half return in years with below-average first-half returns. The average peak-to-trough S&amp;P 500 second-half drawdown following above-average first halves is -6.6% compared to an average drawdown of 10% after a below-average first half.</p>\n<p><b>2. First Year Of Presidential Cycle Bodes Well For Returns</b></p>\n<p>Historically, the second half of the first year under a new U.S. president has been underwhelming, generating an average return of just 1%. However, years in which the market performs well in the first half under a new president have produced an average return of 5.9% in the second half of the year.</p>\n<p>Following an above average first-half during year one of a presidential cycle, 67% of second-half drawdowns are in the 0% to 5% range and 78% of drawdowns were less than 10%.</p>\n<p><b>3. Strong First Halves Good News In Bull Markets</b></p>\n<p>During a secular bull market, the S&amp;P 500 has averaged a 9.1% second-half return following an above-average first-half return. In these years, the S&amp;P 500 has generated a positive second-half return 86% of the time. In addition, the S&amp;P has only experienced one historical second-half drawdown of at least 20% in these years, the Crash of 1987.</p>\n<p><b>Benzinga’s Take:</b>Looking back at market history can help investors keep things in perspective and provide some helpful insight into market tendencies. Unfortunately, past performance is not necessarily indicative of the future, and there are countless variables impacting U.S. markets in the near term.</p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons To Stay Bullish On Stocks In The Second Half Of 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons To Stay Bullish On Stocks In The Second Half Of 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-08 15:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/07/21881688/3-reasons-to-stay-bullish-on-stocks-in-the-second-half-of-2021><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The SPDR S&P 500 ETF(NYSE:SPY) is now up nearly 95% from its March 2020 lows, and it’s understandable why some investors may be getting a bit uneasy about the big run after the S&P 500 tacked on ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/07/21881688/3-reasons-to-stay-bullish-on-stocks-in-the-second-half-of-2021\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/07/21881688/3-reasons-to-stay-bullish-on-stocks-in-the-second-half-of-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192592169","content_text":"The SPDR S&P 500 ETF(NYSE:SPY) is now up nearly 95% from its March 2020 lows, and it’s understandable why some investors may be getting a bit uneasy about the big run after the S&P 500 tacked on another 14.4% gain in the first half of 2021.\nBank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier took a look back at the S&P 500’s historical performance and found at least three reasons history suggests investors should still feel comfortable buying stocks heading into the second half of the year.\n1. Good First-Half Performance A Bullish Second-Half Indicator\nHistorically, when the S&P 500 has an above-average first-half return, it follows up with an above-average second-half return 77% of the time, Suttmeier said.\nThe S&P 500 has averaged a 6.3% second-half return following a strong first-half, well above its 1.7% average second-half return in years with below-average first-half returns. The average peak-to-trough S&P 500 second-half drawdown following above-average first halves is -6.6% compared to an average drawdown of 10% after a below-average first half.\n2. First Year Of Presidential Cycle Bodes Well For Returns\nHistorically, the second half of the first year under a new U.S. president has been underwhelming, generating an average return of just 1%. However, years in which the market performs well in the first half under a new president have produced an average return of 5.9% in the second half of the year.\nFollowing an above average first-half during year one of a presidential cycle, 67% of second-half drawdowns are in the 0% to 5% range and 78% of drawdowns were less than 10%.\n3. Strong First Halves Good News In Bull Markets\nDuring a secular bull market, the S&P 500 has averaged a 9.1% second-half return following an above-average first-half return. In these years, the S&P 500 has generated a positive second-half return 86% of the time. In addition, the S&P has only experienced one historical second-half drawdown of at least 20% in these years, the Crash of 1987.\nBenzinga’s Take:Looking back at market history can help investors keep things in perspective and provide some helpful insight into market tendencies. Unfortunately, past performance is not necessarily indicative of the future, and there are countless variables impacting U.S. markets in the near term.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128725920,"gmtCreate":1624533035360,"gmtModify":1634004795055,"author":{"id":"3580565594783380","authorId":"3580565594783380","name":"Amins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27267c412cea01bdd4a47d746ba7606","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580565594783380","authorIdStr":"3580565594783380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like n comment for good luck!","listText":"Pls like n comment for good luck!","text":"Pls like n comment for good luck!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128725920","repostId":"1187819280","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187819280","pubTimestamp":1624529642,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187819280?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 18:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187819280","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pan","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p>\n<p>Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p>\n<p>Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p>\n<p>And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p>\n<p>While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p>\n<p><b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p>\n<p><b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p>\n<p>Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p>\n<p>Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p>\n<p>The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p>\n<p><b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p>\n<p>Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p>\n<p>Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p>\n<p>What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p>\n<p><b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p>\n<p>Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p>\n<p>Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p>\n<p>Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p>\n<p><b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p>\n<p>For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p>\n<p>The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p>\n<p>Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p>\n<p><b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p>\n<p>Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p>\n<p>Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p>\n<p>But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p>\n<p>Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 18:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187819280","content_text":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.\nTake the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.\nLately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.\nAnd some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.\nWhile some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.\nHere are five big reasons why:\n1. The upgrade cycle is over\nLast summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.\nConsider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.\nThe same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.\n2. Valuations are stretched\nSpeaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.\nTake TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.\nWhat’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.\n3. Delays and shortages\nFuture growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.\nHome improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.\nEven if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.\n4. Inflationary pressures\nFor the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.\nThe cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.\nInflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.\n5. Home-equity hubris\nSpeaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.\nSome of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.\nBut here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.\nAnyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}