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Takingstock
2021-04-21
Believe Tesla can turn profitable soon
Tesla Focus Shifts To Margins
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Despite having a large share of the luxury EV market, the company has posted several years of significant losses in its history. Investors are now hoping that the days of red ink are behind us, which is why the focus must now shift to ke","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Analysts expect non-GAAP profit to surge this year.</li>\n <li>Short-term situation could see a number of pressures.</li>\n <li>Stock at a key technical point right now.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00f300f39d8829850b2af6f83fa43c9a\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"999\"><span>Photo by Urupong/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>One of the largest criticisms of electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA) has been its inability to generate meaningful profits. Despite having a large share of the luxury EV market, the company has posted several years of significant losses in its history. Investors are now hoping that the days of red ink are behind us, which is why the focus must now shift to key margin metrics.</p>\n<p>Tesla's GAAP and non-GAAP numbers have always varied wildly due to stock-based compensation. That gap has been quite large recently thanks to Elon Musk's large bonus plan hitting a number of tranches in 2020. Analysts primarily use the adjusted numbers, and Tesla delivered $2.24 in adjusted EPS last year. As the graphic below shows, estimates for this year have been rising for more than a year, with the current average of $4.22 up a bit from the $3.98 average seen at the end of last year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efe7dc5dee0d26aa4c3862123e6bddf\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"103\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha Tesla analyst estimates page</span></p>\n<p>It will be very interesting to see the margin numbers reported when Tesla earnings come out on Monday, April 26th. While the company did beat estimates for Q1 production and deliveries, there was no production of the Model S or X in the quarter. Elon Musk had said on the Q1 conference call that the refreshed versions of those luxury models were in production already and would be delivered in February, but that obviously did not happen. With these being higher margin vehicles in the past, you would figure overall margins will be hurt.</p>\n<p>Q1 also saw sharp rises in key commodity prices like nickel and cobalt, as well as the initial ramp of the Model Y made in China. Tesla skeptics also believe that highly profitable credit sales will fade over time, but it remains to be seen in the short term how much they will contribute. There also were a number of price cuts during the quarter, like for the Model 3 in Japan and a number of European countries. For a time, Tesla also cut prices in the US on the Model Y and also had a much lower priced Standard Range variant that was sold for part of the quarter.</p>\n<p>As the graphic below details, Tesla's GAAP automotive gross margins have mostly been in the mid 20s percentage-wise over the past five quarters. Credit sales have helped quite a bit, but don't forget that this is only just part of the business. Tesla's energy business has seen low margins or negative margins in recent periods, and the services/other segment loses plenty of money each quarter. Overall for Q4 2020, the company's total GAAP gross margin figure was 19.23%, nearly 500 basis points below the automotive segment's GAAP gross margin figure.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c951c203e6189adb5a1cae8b1a41489e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"57\"><span>Source: Tesla Q4 2020 investor letter</span></p>\n<p>With almost no Model S/X vehicles sold during the period, company-wide average selling prices will certainly decline. The key question is was Tesla able to keep costs at a reasonable level, or are we going to see a significant drop in gross margins? Management spoke on the conference call about a number of supposedly one-time items that were headwinds in Q4, which if they truly dissipate could really help things in Q1.</p>\n<p>On the operating side, there shouldn't be as much expense given a shorter quarter, less coming from the CEO pay package, and Q4 having a larger part of expenses relating to the employee performance grant process. As a point of reference, the current estimates call for $10.12 billion in Q1 revenue and $0.74 in non-GAAP EPS, compared to $10.74 billion and $0.80 in Q4 2020.</p>\n<p>While the Street expects more than $4 in earnings this year, that number is forecast to surge into the low-double digits by 2024. It certainly helps that expected sharply rising deliveries over time should result in more revenue. However, if there are too many price cuts needed to achieve that growth, whether it be to competition or other factors like global economics, certain margin targets will not be met.</p>\n<p>Don't forget, Tesla's share count is rising over time, which is pressuring the EPS forecast for a given level of net income. The unit sales surge in Japan is a good example of how things can change, as it was driven by price cuts of 13%-17% for the Model 3. I can certainly sell more dollar bills for 90 cents each than I can for 95 cents, but it won't be good for my bottom line.</p>\n<p>As for Tesla shares, they are at a very interesting point right now. They closed Monday just above the 100-day moving average (green line below), but remain under the 50-day (purple line). The current Street price target average implies $60 of downside from here, and the stock's movement until earnings will likely be dependent on whether inflation data results in bond yields moving sharply higher or not. If the stock cannot break above the 50-day, that declining key technical level could provide more resistance, and it brings up the possibility of the stock seeing the dreaded death cross later this year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab48feaf079058dba48f4e221d0db55b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"271\"><span>Source: Yahoo! Finance</span></p>\n<p>Tesla certainly defied reduced expectations when it reported its Q1 delivery figures, but my primary Q1 focus will be on margins. How profitable will the company be when it is selling almost no Model S/X units, especially with commodity headwinds and the ramp of the China-made Model Y. Analyst estimates are certainly on the rise, with the Street now calling for a more than $2.2 billion improvement in non-GAAP net income this year. Tesla shares have come off their highs as a rise in bond yields have hurt growth names, but a good quarter in terms of margins could help the name get back above a key technical trend line.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Focus Shifts To Margins</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Focus Shifts To Margins\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-14 12:01 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418935-tesla-focus-shifts-to-margins><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAnalysts expect non-GAAP profit to surge this year.\nShort-term situation could see a number of pressures.\nStock at a key technical point right now.\n\nPhoto by Urupong/iStock via Getty Images\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418935-tesla-focus-shifts-to-margins\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418935-tesla-focus-shifts-to-margins","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1126332570","content_text":"Summary\n\nAnalysts expect non-GAAP profit to surge this year.\nShort-term situation could see a number of pressures.\nStock at a key technical point right now.\n\nPhoto by Urupong/iStock via Getty Images\nOne of the largest criticisms of electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA) has been its inability to generate meaningful profits. Despite having a large share of the luxury EV market, the company has posted several years of significant losses in its history. Investors are now hoping that the days of red ink are behind us, which is why the focus must now shift to key margin metrics.\nTesla's GAAP and non-GAAP numbers have always varied wildly due to stock-based compensation. That gap has been quite large recently thanks to Elon Musk's large bonus plan hitting a number of tranches in 2020. Analysts primarily use the adjusted numbers, and Tesla delivered $2.24 in adjusted EPS last year. As the graphic below shows, estimates for this year have been rising for more than a year, with the current average of $4.22 up a bit from the $3.98 average seen at the end of last year.\nSource: Seeking Alpha Tesla analyst estimates page\nIt will be very interesting to see the margin numbers reported when Tesla earnings come out on Monday, April 26th. While the company did beat estimates for Q1 production and deliveries, there was no production of the Model S or X in the quarter. Elon Musk had said on the Q1 conference call that the refreshed versions of those luxury models were in production already and would be delivered in February, but that obviously did not happen. With these being higher margin vehicles in the past, you would figure overall margins will be hurt.\nQ1 also saw sharp rises in key commodity prices like nickel and cobalt, as well as the initial ramp of the Model Y made in China. Tesla skeptics also believe that highly profitable credit sales will fade over time, but it remains to be seen in the short term how much they will contribute. There also were a number of price cuts during the quarter, like for the Model 3 in Japan and a number of European countries. For a time, Tesla also cut prices in the US on the Model Y and also had a much lower priced Standard Range variant that was sold for part of the quarter.\nAs the graphic below details, Tesla's GAAP automotive gross margins have mostly been in the mid 20s percentage-wise over the past five quarters. Credit sales have helped quite a bit, but don't forget that this is only just part of the business. Tesla's energy business has seen low margins or negative margins in recent periods, and the services/other segment loses plenty of money each quarter. Overall for Q4 2020, the company's total GAAP gross margin figure was 19.23%, nearly 500 basis points below the automotive segment's GAAP gross margin figure.\nSource: Tesla Q4 2020 investor letter\nWith almost no Model S/X vehicles sold during the period, company-wide average selling prices will certainly decline. The key question is was Tesla able to keep costs at a reasonable level, or are we going to see a significant drop in gross margins? Management spoke on the conference call about a number of supposedly one-time items that were headwinds in Q4, which if they truly dissipate could really help things in Q1.\nOn the operating side, there shouldn't be as much expense given a shorter quarter, less coming from the CEO pay package, and Q4 having a larger part of expenses relating to the employee performance grant process. As a point of reference, the current estimates call for $10.12 billion in Q1 revenue and $0.74 in non-GAAP EPS, compared to $10.74 billion and $0.80 in Q4 2020.\nWhile the Street expects more than $4 in earnings this year, that number is forecast to surge into the low-double digits by 2024. It certainly helps that expected sharply rising deliveries over time should result in more revenue. However, if there are too many price cuts needed to achieve that growth, whether it be to competition or other factors like global economics, certain margin targets will not be met.\nDon't forget, Tesla's share count is rising over time, which is pressuring the EPS forecast for a given level of net income. The unit sales surge in Japan is a good example of how things can change, as it was driven by price cuts of 13%-17% for the Model 3. I can certainly sell more dollar bills for 90 cents each than I can for 95 cents, but it won't be good for my bottom line.\nAs for Tesla shares, they are at a very interesting point right now. They closed Monday just above the 100-day moving average (green line below), but remain under the 50-day (purple line). The current Street price target average implies $60 of downside from here, and the stock's movement until earnings will likely be dependent on whether inflation data results in bond yields moving sharply higher or not. If the stock cannot break above the 50-day, that declining key technical level could provide more resistance, and it brings up the possibility of the stock seeing the dreaded death cross later this year.\nSource: Yahoo! Finance\nTesla certainly defied reduced expectations when it reported its Q1 delivery figures, but my primary Q1 focus will be on margins. How profitable will the company be when it is selling almost no Model S/X units, especially with commodity headwinds and the ramp of the China-made Model Y. Analyst estimates are certainly on the rise, with the Street now calling for a more than $2.2 billion improvement in non-GAAP net income this year. Tesla shares have come off their highs as a rise in bond yields have hurt growth names, but a good quarter in terms of margins could help the name get back above a key technical trend line.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
