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2021-04-06

[思考]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-10

上上上!

XPeng Inc.: A Reawakening

2021-06-11

Totally agree with this article! Just like Buffer who loves saying this -"Get rich slowly" [美金]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-12

Too much relief packages from governments, so inflation increases along with interest.. [惊讶]

Inflation Is Running Hot. What It Means for the Stock Market

2021-04-06

I don't quite get it.. [疑问] Doesn't make sense to me[摊手]

Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time

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Just like Buffer who loves saying this -\"Get rich slowly\" [美金]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181586412","repostId":"2142221222","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":193776836,"gmtCreate":1620825153025,"gmtModify":1634196049199,"author":{"id":"3578189492032448","authorId":"3578189492032448","name":"DJJJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a34f7c7af1d13e4bd21ac607b159890","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Too much relief packages from governments, so inflation increases along with interest..&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"Too much relief packages from governments, so inflation increases along with interest..&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"Too much relief packages from governments, so inflation increases along with interest.. 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[疑问] Doesn't make sense to me[摊手]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343240997","repostId":"1101907559","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":343243361,"gmtCreate":1617720616753,"gmtModify":1634296908691,"author":{"id":"3578189492032448","authorId":"3578189492032448","name":"DJJJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a34f7c7af1d13e4bd21ac607b159890","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[思考]&nbsp;","listText":"[思考]&nbsp;","text":"[思考]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343243361","repostId":"1101907559","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346970466,"gmtCreate":1617984065055,"gmtModify":1634295362544,"author":{"id":"3578189492032448","authorId":"3578189492032448","name":"DJJJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a34f7c7af1d13e4bd21ac607b159890","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"上上上!&nbsp;","listText":"上上上!&nbsp;","text":"上上上!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346970466","repostId":"1142324412","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142324412","pubTimestamp":1617982207,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142324412?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-09 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"XPeng Inc.: A Reawakening","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142324412","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Valuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.Recent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.Company could breakeven and finally reach positive profits soon; major improvements seen in operating margins.Feared chip shortage  was not a disaster, deliveries are still strong.Government support, China's creation of an EV ecosystem.XPEV's strong deliveries describe not only excellent support from the private sector, but also the Chinese go","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Valuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.</li>\n <li>Recent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.</li>\n <li>Company could breakeven and finally reach positive profits soon; major improvements seen in operating margins.</li>\n <li>Feared chip shortage (i.e. supply disruption) was not a disaster, deliveries are still strong.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e0f3343d69719839f9b8f1d337c3984\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>The stock price of&nbsp;XPEV&nbsp;has been converging with the performance of the S&amp;P 500 since March 2021, as compared to its massive outperformance in 4Q2020. This could be view positively or negatively. On the bright side, this suggests that price performance would become more predictable with lower volatility, indicative of a broadening consensus on the fundamental prospects of the company. On the other hand, traders may be disappointed its lack of momentum. Therefore, this is probably a good time to stop viewing XPEV as purely a trade, but re-analyze its merits as a fundamentally-driven investment.</p>\n<p><i>The frenetic performance of XPEV has calmed down in recent weeks, allowing its one year performance to track the S&amp;P 500 more closely</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f04001d604ecc7892ef3a76c498578b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"236\"><span>Source: SeekingAlpha</span></p>\n<p><i>XPEV's G3 Super Long Range Smart SUV</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68446a741f9f97afc10f2149c4e13e13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source: XPeng Motors (G3、P7) Intelligent electric car with Internet DNA</span></p>\n<p><b>Industry and commercial positives</b></p>\n<p>Optimism on EVs and&nbsp;strong industry growth&nbsp;rates are common knowledge by now. The following points suggest specific positives for XPEV that remain intact despite relatively ebbing momentum on the stock's price (as compared to 4Q2020):</p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>Deliveries met despite fears on chip shortage.</b>While the stock's price momentum appears to have ebbed, recent news continues to remain positive. At an industry level, Chinese vehicle manufacturers XPEV andNIOmanaged to manufacture the expected numbers of vehicle deliveries, despite much feared chip shortages.XPEV chalked&nbsp;in record quarterly deliveries of 13,340 EVs in Q1 2021, +487% over the year and +130% over the month in March.NIO delivered&nbsp;20,060 +423% over the year while Q1 deliveries rose 15.6% to 20,060. The challenge these EV manufacturers face now is not so much the ability to deliver on its numbers, but on being able to meet high expectations for the stock price to gain further traction.</li>\n <li><b>Government support, China's creation of an EV ecosystem.</b>XPEV's strong deliveries describe not only excellent support from the private sector, but also the Chinese government's push to develop this part of its industry. XPEV has entered into an agreement with the city of Wuhan to build a factory with a capacity of 100,000 EV units. This is a very significant piece of news, considering its deliveries of just 5,102 in March 2021. Annualizing this number, the new capacity will be more than the whole of XPEV's total historical annual production. This news is interesting and significant since it was just released this week, suggesting it may have yet to be factored into analysts' forecast numbers. This is made more important as XPEV has always been considered a laggard in production capabilities to its larger cousin NIO. General Chinese government support for the EV ecosystem is strong, and the new facility in Wuhan echoes earlier provincial government financial support ($77m) in Guangdong. The reality is, for EVs to gain traction, government willingness to support infrastructure initiatives are highly important (e.g. permits for charging stations, creating incentives to convert from old polluting vehicles to green vehicles, etc.). With China's tradition of central planning, the EV ecosystem is placed on the right footing.</li>\n <li><b>Listing in Hong Kong adds to investor base and liquidity.</b>Going forward,XPEV,NIO, and&nbsp;LI&nbsp;intend tolistin Hong Kong this year. This is a strategic move, and makes the valuation of these companies less susceptible by US political bashing (e.g. the threat of being de-listed) should it occur, since it reflects a wider geographical base. The valuations of these companies may even get a boost given greater global liquidity due to added trading in the Asian time zone.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Of note, in late March, XPEV held an&nbsp;autonomous driving expedition&nbsp;covering eight cities in China and 3,675 kilometers. The exercise was successful, as minimal human intervention was needed during the expedition and adds another brownie point to XPEV's research and development efforts, placing XPEV on the&nbsp;competitive landscape&nbsp;against rivals such as TSLA and NIO on autonomous driving. Apparently, XPEV's autonomous driving results&nbsp;performed better&nbsp;than TSLA's with fewer human interventions per 100km and better navigation in complex situations.</p>\n<p><b>XPEV's improving financials</b></p>\n<p>Now that we have several quarters of financial data on XPEV, it is worth reviewing how its metrics have been performing. Firstly, market expectations aside, deliveries have been very good as abovementioned, and this is flowing through to revenue numbers. As shown in the below table, growth has been very strong, and revenues are expected to more than double in 2021 and continue to double in 2022. Such growth rates place XPEV at the top end of manufacturing firms, as expected of the fast-growing EV market.</p>\n<p>Another point to note is the improvement in operating margins. As with any \"new tech\" company, initial investments would cause hugely negative operating margins in the beginning. What's important is the company's ability to improve margins and reduce costs over time. In this respect, XPEV has done a good job, with operating margins improving sequentially each quarter. Of note, operating margins started to see major improvements between the Jun-2020 (-142%) and Dec-2020 (-39%) quarters as shown in the table below. Given this trend, the company is likely to breakeven and register positive profits soon, which could be a catalytic re-rating for XPEV. When we pair this analysis with the stock price, it appears that XPEV's recently soft stock price performance is not justified.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the balance sheet is expected to remain strong. Equity to total liabilities &amp; equity is 23% as at Dec-2020. As abovementioned, further capital raises with a forthcoming Hong Kong listing will add to XPEV's cash buffer.</p>\n<p><i>XPEV's performance improvement in both revenue and operating margin trends appear to have been ignored by the market due to recent the broad market capitulation</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8258dce0cc10e8118a23afce7655bed\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"737\"><span>*EST = estimate by analysts' consensus from SeekingAlpha</span></p>\n<p><b>XPEV's valuation: somewhere in the middle</b></p>\n<p>XPEV's stock price has done well over the last 6 months versus peers. On a TTM P/S, XPEV is near the middle although its FWD P/S is trading at a premium. However, there could be a general re-rating of the P/S of the sector if the Chinese EV manufacturers reach breakeven in 2021 and record positive profits (our base case belief, given the prevailing trend in XPEV's improving operating margins). This will then allow better price discovery when the companies can then be valued on their P/E ratios.</p>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa975ce545e950a20f809bcc7f698ef6\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"594\">\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr></tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>Conclusion and Risks</b></p>\n<p>XPEV's stock price may benefit from two key catalysts: (1) expansion of manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will concretely raise visibility of revenue growth which is expected to double; (2) a valuation regime change as it progresses from a loss making company to a profitable one, expected by this year. Furthermore, it is worth noting that the valuation is not lofty as compared to price levels in 4Q2020, having fallen over the last couple of months.</p>\n<p>Competition may exist and remain intense, but given the large size of China's market and that there are only a couple of notable players (i.e. NIO, LI), the market remains largely an oligopoly which allows XPEV to retain pricing power.</p>\n<p>Much feared risks of execution in the past appear to have materialized but not in a big way, i.e. the previously expected chip shortage. Given the progression to a post-COVID economy, supply chain links should improve and reduce similar risks in the future.</p>\n<p>On a standalone basis, XPEV's prospects appear bright, and now the key hurdle is whether the NASDAQ will find momentum and exceed previous highs. The base case for this should lean towards the positive as the market is merely in the first year of the economic recovery after the pandemic. Recent price consolidation appears to have created a technical setup for a reawakening of price momentum as consumer activity revives post-pandemic.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng Inc.: A Reawakening</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng Inc.: A Reawakening\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-09 23:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418326-xpeng-inc-reawakening><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nValuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.\nRecent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.\nCompany could breakeven and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418326-xpeng-inc-reawakening\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418326-xpeng-inc-reawakening","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1142324412","content_text":"Summary\n\nValuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.\nRecent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.\nCompany could breakeven and finally reach positive profits soon; major improvements seen in operating margins.\nFeared chip shortage (i.e. supply disruption) was not a disaster, deliveries are still strong.\n\nPhoto by Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nThe stock price of XPEV has been converging with the performance of the S&P 500 since March 2021, as compared to its massive outperformance in 4Q2020. This could be view positively or negatively. On the bright side, this suggests that price performance would become more predictable with lower volatility, indicative of a broadening consensus on the fundamental prospects of the company. On the other hand, traders may be disappointed its lack of momentum. Therefore, this is probably a good time to stop viewing XPEV as purely a trade, but re-analyze its merits as a fundamentally-driven investment.\nThe frenetic performance of XPEV has calmed down in recent weeks, allowing its one year performance to track the S&P 500 more closely\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nXPEV's G3 Super Long Range Smart SUV\nSource: XPeng Motors (G3、P7) Intelligent electric car with Internet DNA\nIndustry and commercial positives\nOptimism on EVs and strong industry growth rates are common knowledge by now. The following points suggest specific positives for XPEV that remain intact despite relatively ebbing momentum on the stock's price (as compared to 4Q2020):\n\nDeliveries met despite fears on chip shortage.While the stock's price momentum appears to have ebbed, recent news continues to remain positive. At an industry level, Chinese vehicle manufacturers XPEV andNIOmanaged to manufacture the expected numbers of vehicle deliveries, despite much feared chip shortages.XPEV chalked in record quarterly deliveries of 13,340 EVs in Q1 2021, +487% over the year and +130% over the month in March.NIO delivered 20,060 +423% over the year while Q1 deliveries rose 15.6% to 20,060. The challenge these EV manufacturers face now is not so much the ability to deliver on its numbers, but on being able to meet high expectations for the stock price to gain further traction.\nGovernment support, China's creation of an EV ecosystem.XPEV's strong deliveries describe not only excellent support from the private sector, but also the Chinese government's push to develop this part of its industry. XPEV has entered into an agreement with the city of Wuhan to build a factory with a capacity of 100,000 EV units. This is a very significant piece of news, considering its deliveries of just 5,102 in March 2021. Annualizing this number, the new capacity will be more than the whole of XPEV's total historical annual production. This news is interesting and significant since it was just released this week, suggesting it may have yet to be factored into analysts' forecast numbers. This is made more important as XPEV has always been considered a laggard in production capabilities to its larger cousin NIO. General Chinese government support for the EV ecosystem is strong, and the new facility in Wuhan echoes earlier provincial government financial support ($77m) in Guangdong. The reality is, for EVs to gain traction, government willingness to support infrastructure initiatives are highly important (e.g. permits for charging stations, creating incentives to convert from old polluting vehicles to green vehicles, etc.). With China's tradition of central planning, the EV ecosystem is placed on the right footing.\nListing in Hong Kong adds to investor base and liquidity.Going forward,XPEV,NIO, and LI intend tolistin Hong Kong this year. This is a strategic move, and makes the valuation of these companies less susceptible by US political bashing (e.g. the threat of being de-listed) should it occur, since it reflects a wider geographical base. The valuations of these companies may even get a boost given greater global liquidity due to added trading in the Asian time zone.\n\nOf note, in late March, XPEV held an autonomous driving expedition covering eight cities in China and 3,675 kilometers. The exercise was successful, as minimal human intervention was needed during the expedition and adds another brownie point to XPEV's research and development efforts, placing XPEV on the competitive landscape against rivals such as TSLA and NIO on autonomous driving. Apparently, XPEV's autonomous driving results performed better than TSLA's with fewer human interventions per 100km and better navigation in complex situations.\nXPEV's improving financials\nNow that we have several quarters of financial data on XPEV, it is worth reviewing how its metrics have been performing. Firstly, market expectations aside, deliveries have been very good as abovementioned, and this is flowing through to revenue numbers. As shown in the below table, growth has been very strong, and revenues are expected to more than double in 2021 and continue to double in 2022. Such growth rates place XPEV at the top end of manufacturing firms, as expected of the fast-growing EV market.\nAnother point to note is the improvement in operating margins. As with any \"new tech\" company, initial investments would cause hugely negative operating margins in the beginning. What's important is the company's ability to improve margins and reduce costs over time. In this respect, XPEV has done a good job, with operating margins improving sequentially each quarter. Of note, operating margins started to see major improvements between the Jun-2020 (-142%) and Dec-2020 (-39%) quarters as shown in the table below. Given this trend, the company is likely to breakeven and register positive profits soon, which could be a catalytic re-rating for XPEV. When we pair this analysis with the stock price, it appears that XPEV's recently soft stock price performance is not justified.\nMeanwhile, the balance sheet is expected to remain strong. Equity to total liabilities & equity is 23% as at Dec-2020. As abovementioned, further capital raises with a forthcoming Hong Kong listing will add to XPEV's cash buffer.\nXPEV's performance improvement in both revenue and operating margin trends appear to have been ignored by the market due to recent the broad market capitulation\n*EST = estimate by analysts' consensus from SeekingAlpha\nXPEV's valuation: somewhere in the middle\nXPEV's stock price has done well over the last 6 months versus peers. On a TTM P/S, XPEV is near the middle although its FWD P/S is trading at a premium. However, there could be a general re-rating of the P/S of the sector if the Chinese EV manufacturers reach breakeven in 2021 and record positive profits (our base case belief, given the prevailing trend in XPEV's improving operating margins). This will then allow better price discovery when the companies can then be valued on their P/E ratios.\n\n\n\n\n\n\nConclusion and Risks\nXPEV's stock price may benefit from two key catalysts: (1) expansion of manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will concretely raise visibility of revenue growth which is expected to double; (2) a valuation regime change as it progresses from a loss making company to a profitable one, expected by this year. Furthermore, it is worth noting that the valuation is not lofty as compared to price levels in 4Q2020, having fallen over the last couple of months.\nCompetition may exist and remain intense, but given the large size of China's market and that there are only a couple of notable players (i.e. NIO, LI), the market remains largely an oligopoly which allows XPEV to retain pricing power.\nMuch feared risks of execution in the past appear to have materialized but not in a big way, i.e. the previously expected chip shortage. Given the progression to a post-COVID economy, supply chain links should improve and reduce similar risks in the future.\nOn a standalone basis, XPEV's prospects appear bright, and now the key hurdle is whether the NASDAQ will find momentum and exceed previous highs. The base case for this should lean towards the positive as the market is merely in the first year of the economic recovery after the pandemic. Recent price consolidation appears to have created a technical setup for a reawakening of price momentum as consumer activity revives post-pandemic.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":181586412,"gmtCreate":1623401780336,"gmtModify":1634033725259,"author":{"id":"3578189492032448","authorId":"3578189492032448","name":"DJJJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a34f7c7af1d13e4bd21ac607b159890","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Totally agree with this article!&nbsp;Just like Buffer who loves saying this -\"Get rich slowly\"&nbsp;[美金]&nbsp;","listText":"Totally agree with this article!&nbsp;Just like Buffer who loves saying this -\"Get rich slowly\"&nbsp;[美金]&nbsp;","text":"Totally agree with this article! Just like Buffer who loves saying this -\"Get rich slowly\" [美金]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181586412","repostId":"2142221222","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":193776836,"gmtCreate":1620825153025,"gmtModify":1634196049199,"author":{"id":"3578189492032448","authorId":"3578189492032448","name":"DJJJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a34f7c7af1d13e4bd21ac607b159890","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Too much relief packages from governments, so inflation increases along with interest..&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"Too much relief packages from governments, so inflation increases along with interest..&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"Too much relief packages from governments, so inflation increases along with interest.. [惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193776836","repostId":"1188486043","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188486043","pubTimestamp":1620824363,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188486043?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-12 20:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Inflation Is Running Hot. What It Means for the Stock Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188486043","media":"Barron's","summary":"April’s inflation datawas released today—and it’s running very hot. That’s no surprise despite peopl","content":"<p>April’s inflation datawas released today—and it’s running very hot. That’s no surprise despite people acting shocked by the rise in prices.</p>\n<p>Inflation worries have been on the rise recently, with the prices of everything from food to cars to gasoline increasing. April’s consumer-price index, which rose 4.2% year over year, is unlikely to assuage those concerns.</p>\n<p>A little bit of inflation is a good thing, a sign that the economy is operating properly. High inflation, though, eats into savings and sucks the energy out of the economy. It also forces central bankers toraise interest rates, which slows the economy and causes stock valuations to fall. That’s why the Federal Reserve wants to keep inflation running at around 2%—not too hot and not too cold.</p>\n<p>Wednesday’s inflation rate doubled that level year over year. It can safely be ignored, however, because the economy was falling apart in April 2020 because of Covid-19 lockdowns.</p>\n<p>The month-over-month change is another story. It rose 0.9% from March to April, excluding food and energy—economists like to assume people don’t drive or eat—beating forecasts for 0.2%.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500slumped 0.8% on the news, but even a number this strong is unlikely to change the Fed’s plans, at least not in the short term.</p>\n<p>No matter what the market wants.</p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation Is Running Hot. What It Means for the Stock Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation Is Running Hot. What It Means for the Stock Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-12 20:59 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/inflation-is-running-hot-what-it-means-for-the-stock-market-51620823775?mod=mw_latestnews><strong>Barron's</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>April’s inflation datawas released today—and it’s running very hot. That’s no surprise despite people acting shocked by the rise in prices.\nInflation worries have been on the rise recently, with the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/inflation-is-running-hot-what-it-means-for-the-stock-market-51620823775?mod=mw_latestnews\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/inflation-is-running-hot-what-it-means-for-the-stock-market-51620823775?mod=mw_latestnews","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188486043","content_text":"April’s inflation datawas released today—and it’s running very hot. That’s no surprise despite people acting shocked by the rise in prices.\nInflation worries have been on the rise recently, with the prices of everything from food to cars to gasoline increasing. April’s consumer-price index, which rose 4.2% year over year, is unlikely to assuage those concerns.\nA little bit of inflation is a good thing, a sign that the economy is operating properly. High inflation, though, eats into savings and sucks the energy out of the economy. It also forces central bankers toraise interest rates, which slows the economy and causes stock valuations to fall. That’s why the Federal Reserve wants to keep inflation running at around 2%—not too hot and not too cold.\nWednesday’s inflation rate doubled that level year over year. It can safely be ignored, however, because the economy was falling apart in April 2020 because of Covid-19 lockdowns.\nThe month-over-month change is another story. It rose 0.9% from March to April, excluding food and energy—economists like to assume people don’t drive or eat—beating forecasts for 0.2%.\nThe S&P 500slumped 0.8% on the news, but even a number this strong is unlikely to change the Fed’s plans, at least not in the short term.\nNo matter what the market wants.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":343240997,"gmtCreate":1617720540119,"gmtModify":1634296910091,"author":{"id":"3578189492032448","authorId":"3578189492032448","name":"DJJJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a34f7c7af1d13e4bd21ac607b159890","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I don't quite get it..&nbsp;[疑问]&nbsp;Doesn't make sense to me[摊手]&nbsp;","listText":"I don't quite get it..&nbsp;[疑问]&nbsp;Doesn't make sense to me[摊手]&nbsp;","text":"I don't quite get it.. [疑问] Doesn't make sense to me[摊手]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343240997","repostId":"1101907559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101907559","pubTimestamp":1617672655,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101907559?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-06 09:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101907559","media":"marketwatch","summary":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management. Its reach and operating practices were","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p>\n<p>In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p>\n<p>Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p>\n<p>The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p>\n<p>A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p>\n<p><b>Unregulated money managers</b></p>\n<p>Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p>\n<p>This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p>\n<p>The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p>\n<p>But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p>\n<p><b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p>\n<p>This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p>\n<p>So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p>\n<p>One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p>\n<p>But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p>\n<p><b>Yellen on the case</b></p>\n<p>This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p>\n<p>Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p>\n<p>The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-06 09:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page><strong>marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101907559","content_text":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.\nIn 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.\nExactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.\nThe trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?\nA family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.\nUnregulated money managers\nHere’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)\nThis appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company GSX Techedu Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and Discovery Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.\nThe problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%, Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc. NMR,+1.87%.\nBut since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.\nDanger of counterparty risk\nThis is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.\nSo is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.\nOne peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.\nBut federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.\nYellen on the case\nThis issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”\nMost financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.\nThe Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}