+关注
于洪水期权实盘
暂无个人介绍
IP属地：山东
83
关注
1
粉丝
8
主题
0
勋章
主贴
热门
于洪水期权实盘
11-08
$NBIS 20241220 22.5 CALL$
于洪水期权实盘
11-08
$PINS 20241115 35.0 CALL$
于洪水期权实盘
11-08
$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$
于洪水期权实盘
11-05
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
期权女巫 | 超微电脑财报在即，是时候用期权策略进行对冲
于洪水期权实盘
05-14
$Faraday Future(FFIE)$
所以让我们 最后再相信一次贾跃亭吧
于洪水期权实盘
05-14
看好，马上起飞 敬请期待
于洪水期权实盘
2023-12-04
$Faraday Future(FFIE)$
老贾真是坑呀，不值得信任
于洪水期权实盘
2021-10-19
$FFIE 20220218 17.5 CALL(FFIE)$
搏一下
于洪水期权实盘
2021-03-15
我的实盘账户，欢迎大家围观
去老虎APP查看更多动态
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3578007854846765","uuid":"3578007854846765","gmtCreate":1615180062130,"gmtModify":1731006528767,"name":"于洪水期权实盘","pinyin":"yhsqqspyuhongshuiqiquanshipan","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d471a8d346b58e50781690f920b3c573","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":1,"headSize":83,"tweetSize":9,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":8,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":1,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-2","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"资深虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.12.04","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"93.50%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.20%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"山东","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":23,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":368496642580920,"gmtCreate":1731006483634,"gmtModify":1731015697550,"author":{"id":"3578007854846765","authorId":"3578007854846765","name":"于洪水期权实盘","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d471a8d346b58e50781690f920b3c573","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578007854846765","authorIdStr":"3578007854846765"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NBIS 20241220 22.5 CALL\">$NBIS 20241220 22.5 CALL$</a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NBIS 20241220 22.5 CALL\">$NBIS 20241220 22.5 CALL$</a> ","text":"$NBIS 20241220 22.5 CALL$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe7c089e958ebbfc256562de0a216882","width":"981","height":"1638"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368496642580920","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"24666311378648","authorId":"24666311378648","name":"gmh10086","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"24666311378648","authorIdStr":"24666311378648"},"content":"玩砸了？ [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","text":"玩砸了？ [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","html":"玩砸了？ [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368512564670832,"gmtCreate":1731006465270,"gmtModify":1731015697500,"author":{"id":"3578007854846765","authorId":"3578007854846765","name":"于洪水期权实盘","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d471a8d346b58e50781690f920b3c573","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578007854846765","authorIdStr":"3578007854846765"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PINS 20241115 35.0 CALL\">$PINS 20241115 35.0 CALL$</a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PINS 20241115 35.0 CALL\">$PINS 20241115 35.0 CALL$</a> ","text":"$PINS 20241115 35.0 CALL$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd972db102ef39da64313bc2d5365d4a","width":"981","height":"1638"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368512564670832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368512216945008,"gmtCreate":1731006380377,"gmtModify":1731006381232,"author":{"id":"3578007854846765","authorId":"3578007854846765","name":"于洪水期权实盘","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d471a8d346b58e50781690f920b3c573","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578007854846765","authorIdStr":"3578007854846765"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\">$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\">$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> ","text":"$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368512216945008","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":107,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":367734904733856,"gmtCreate":1730796777300,"gmtModify":1730796791335,"author":{"id":"3578007854846765","authorId":"3578007854846765","name":"于洪水期权实盘","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d471a8d346b58e50781690f920b3c573","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578007854846765","authorIdStr":"3578007854846765"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/367734904733856","repostId":"1124836961","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1124836961","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"期权策略分享","home_visible":1,"media_name":"期权女巫","id":"1020040791","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89"},"pubTimestamp":1730788015,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124836961?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-11-05 14:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"期权女巫 | 超微电脑财报在即，是时候用期权策略进行对冲","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124836961","media":"期权女巫","summary":"$超微电脑$将于周三盘后发布业绩， 这只股票当前面临巨大的不确定性，既有积极的一面，也有消极的一面。更具体地说，EY在10月24日通知董事会其辞职的决定。消息传出后，SMCI的股价下跌超过三分之一。潜在投资者可以考虑使用看涨期权。下图显示了一个将于2024年11月22日到期的SMCI看涨期权的信息，行使价为26美元。类似地，现有投资者也可以考虑使用看跌期权来对冲他们在未来1~2周的仓位。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">超微电脑</a>将于周三盘后发布业绩， 这只股票当前面临巨大的不确定性，既有积极的一面，也有消极的一面。</p><p><strong>积极方面</strong>，台积电最近的财报也让市场看到对AI相关芯片的强劲需求持续存在。这预示着SMCI在即将发布的财报中会有强劲的收益表现。然而，消极方面也存在不少重大不确定性。这一点从近期分析师对盈利预测的调整中可以看出。具体来说，在过去一个季度，有4个EPS（每股收益）预测上调和5个下调，显示出投资社区中存在较大的不确定性。</p><p>这种盈利不确定性因最近审计师安永（Ernst & Young，简称EY）的辞职而大大加剧。更具体地说，EY在10月24日通知董事会其辞职的决定。EY辞职的原因包括透明度和内部控制问题。</p><p>消息传出后，SMCI的股价下跌超过三分之一。尽管股价大幅修正，但仍建议投资者避免尝试抄底。像EY这样的知名审计师辞职应是任何投资决策中需要重点考虑的因素。其他近期的辞职案例（例如EY和德勤的辞职）都对投资者造成了不良影响。</p><p>因此，尽管由于最近的价格修正使得估值看起来吸引人，但并不建议潜在投资者尝试抄底。相反，投资者应该对当前的市盈率持怀疑态度，因为财务重述的可能性不容忽视。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c267bc36ef01b762338406a502b241fa\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>最后，基于以上分析，本文将讨论一些可操作的建议，利用期权来管理当前的不确定性。考虑到公司即将于2024年11月6日（周三盘后）发布2025财年第一季度财报，使用期权的时机尤其重要。</p><p>潜在投资者可以考虑使用看涨期权。下图显示了一个将于2024年11月22日到期的SMCI看涨期权的信息（即在即将发布的财报后大约两周），行使价为26美元（与当前价格相近的看涨期权）。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SMCI 20241122 26.0 CALL\" title=\"$SMCI 20241122 26.0 CALL$ \" class=\"immutable-element\">$SMCI 20241122 26.0 CALL$ </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0acc371c4334ef9b6e9f28a91c7e5df9\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"1340\"/></p><p>从图中可以看到，该期权最近的交易价格约为4.65美元。因此，约465美元的投资将赋予期权持有者以26美元的价格购买100股的权利，这相比于直接购买股票（100股需要约2600美元）所需的资金暴露要小得多。类似地，现有投资者也可以考虑使用看跌期权来对冲他们在未来1~2周的仓位。这些具有相同到期日和行使价的看跌期权最近的交易价格约为4.55美元。</p><p><strong>其他风险与最终思考</strong></p><p>除了前面提到的风险外，还有一些其他风险，既包括正面也包括负面的，值得一提。作为一种积极风险，该股票目前的前瞻市盈率（FWD P/E）仅为7.7倍，这个估值相当具有吸引力。此外，考虑到增长率后，市盈率的吸引力更大。例如，2025财年的共识EPS预测为3.37美元，代表着52.57%的显著同比增长。接下来的两年，预计增长率分别为31.73%和23.74%。根据这些预测，PEG比率仅约为0.25倍，而对于追求合理价格增长（GARP）投资者来说，理想的标准是1倍。然而，考虑到上面讨论的EY辞职事件，投资者在解读市盈率时应保持谨慎，并将财务报表重述的可能性纳入考虑。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>期权女巫 | 超微电脑财报在即，是时候用期权策略进行对冲</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权女巫 | 超微电脑财报在即，是时候用期权策略进行对冲\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1020040791\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">期权女巫 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-11-05 14:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">超微电脑</a>将于周三盘后发布业绩， 这只股票当前面临巨大的不确定性，既有积极的一面，也有消极的一面。</p><p><strong>积极方面</strong>，台积电最近的财报也让市场看到对AI相关芯片的强劲需求持续存在。这预示着SMCI在即将发布的财报中会有强劲的收益表现。然而，消极方面也存在不少重大不确定性。这一点从近期分析师对盈利预测的调整中可以看出。具体来说，在过去一个季度，有4个EPS（每股收益）预测上调和5个下调，显示出投资社区中存在较大的不确定性。</p><p>这种盈利不确定性因最近审计师安永（Ernst & Young，简称EY）的辞职而大大加剧。更具体地说，EY在10月24日通知董事会其辞职的决定。EY辞职的原因包括透明度和内部控制问题。</p><p>消息传出后，SMCI的股价下跌超过三分之一。尽管股价大幅修正，但仍建议投资者避免尝试抄底。像EY这样的知名审计师辞职应是任何投资决策中需要重点考虑的因素。其他近期的辞职案例（例如EY和德勤的辞职）都对投资者造成了不良影响。</p><p>因此，尽管由于最近的价格修正使得估值看起来吸引人，但并不建议潜在投资者尝试抄底。相反，投资者应该对当前的市盈率持怀疑态度，因为财务重述的可能性不容忽视。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c267bc36ef01b762338406a502b241fa\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>最后，基于以上分析，本文将讨论一些可操作的建议，利用期权来管理当前的不确定性。考虑到公司即将于2024年11月6日（周三盘后）发布2025财年第一季度财报，使用期权的时机尤其重要。</p><p>潜在投资者可以考虑使用看涨期权。下图显示了一个将于2024年11月22日到期的SMCI看涨期权的信息（即在即将发布的财报后大约两周），行使价为26美元（与当前价格相近的看涨期权）。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SMCI 20241122 26.0 CALL\" title=\"$SMCI 20241122 26.0 CALL$ \" class=\"immutable-element\">$SMCI 20241122 26.0 CALL$ </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0acc371c4334ef9b6e9f28a91c7e5df9\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"1340\"/></p><p>从图中可以看到，该期权最近的交易价格约为4.65美元。因此，约465美元的投资将赋予期权持有者以26美元的价格购买100股的权利，这相比于直接购买股票（100股需要约2600美元）所需的资金暴露要小得多。类似地，现有投资者也可以考虑使用看跌期权来对冲他们在未来1~2周的仓位。这些具有相同到期日和行使价的看跌期权最近的交易价格约为4.55美元。</p><p><strong>其他风险与最终思考</strong></p><p>除了前面提到的风险外，还有一些其他风险，既包括正面也包括负面的，值得一提。作为一种积极风险，该股票目前的前瞻市盈率（FWD P/E）仅为7.7倍，这个估值相当具有吸引力。此外，考虑到增长率后，市盈率的吸引力更大。例如，2025财年的共识EPS预测为3.37美元，代表着52.57%的显著同比增长。接下来的两年，预计增长率分别为31.73%和23.74%。根据这些预测，PEG比率仅约为0.25倍，而对于追求合理价格增长（GARP）投资者来说，理想的标准是1倍。然而，考虑到上面讨论的EY辞职事件，投资者在解读市盈率时应保持谨慎，并将财务报表重述的可能性纳入考虑。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd9b4b7cbec67c68f3fbf44b021799e","relate_stocks":{"SMCI":"超微电脑"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124836961","content_text":"超微电脑将于周三盘后发布业绩， 这只股票当前面临巨大的不确定性，既有积极的一面，也有消极的一面。积极方面，台积电最近的财报也让市场看到对AI相关芯片的强劲需求持续存在。这预示着SMCI在即将发布的财报中会有强劲的收益表现。然而，消极方面也存在不少重大不确定性。这一点从近期分析师对盈利预测的调整中可以看出。具体来说，在过去一个季度，有4个EPS（每股收益）预测上调和5个下调，显示出投资社区中存在较大的不确定性。这种盈利不确定性因最近审计师安永（Ernst & Young，简称EY）的辞职而大大加剧。更具体地说，EY在10月24日通知董事会其辞职的决定。EY辞职的原因包括透明度和内部控制问题。消息传出后，SMCI的股价下跌超过三分之一。尽管股价大幅修正，但仍建议投资者避免尝试抄底。像EY这样的知名审计师辞职应是任何投资决策中需要重点考虑的因素。其他近期的辞职案例（例如EY和德勤的辞职）都对投资者造成了不良影响。因此，尽管由于最近的价格修正使得估值看起来吸引人，但并不建议潜在投资者尝试抄底。相反，投资者应该对当前的市盈率持怀疑态度，因为财务重述的可能性不容忽视。最后，基于以上分析，本文将讨论一些可操作的建议，利用期权来管理当前的不确定性。考虑到公司即将于2024年11月6日（周三盘后）发布2025财年第一季度财报，使用期权的时机尤其重要。潜在投资者可以考虑使用看涨期权。下图显示了一个将于2024年11月22日到期的SMCI看涨期权的信息（即在即将发布的财报后大约两周），行使价为26美元（与当前价格相近的看涨期权）。$SMCI 20241122 26.0 CALL$ 从图中可以看到，该期权最近的交易价格约为4.65美元。因此，约465美元的投资将赋予期权持有者以26美元的价格购买100股的权利，这相比于直接购买股票（100股需要约2600美元）所需的资金暴露要小得多。类似地，现有投资者也可以考虑使用看跌期权来对冲他们在未来1~2周的仓位。这些具有相同到期日和行使价的看跌期权最近的交易价格约为4.55美元。其他风险与最终思考除了前面提到的风险外，还有一些其他风险，既包括正面也包括负面的，值得一提。作为一种积极风险，该股票目前的前瞻市盈率（FWD P/E）仅为7.7倍，这个估值相当具有吸引力。此外，考虑到增长率后，市盈率的吸引力更大。例如，2025财年的共识EPS预测为3.37美元，代表着52.57%的显著同比增长。接下来的两年，预计增长率分别为31.73%和23.74%。根据这些预测，PEG比率仅约为0.25倍，而对于追求合理价格增长（GARP）投资者来说，理想的标准是1倍。然而，考虑到上面讨论的EY辞职事件，投资者在解读市盈率时应保持谨慎，并将财务报表重述的可能性纳入考虑。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":94,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":305804670537992,"gmtCreate":1715693914953,"gmtModify":1715693916100,"author":{"id":"3578007854846765","authorId":"3578007854846765","name":"于洪水期权实盘","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d471a8d346b58e50781690f920b3c573","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578007854846765","authorIdStr":"3578007854846765"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ </a> 所以让我们 最后再相信一次贾跃亭吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ </a> 所以让我们 最后再相信一次贾跃亭吧","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 所以让我们 最后再相信一次贾跃亭吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/305804670537992","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":676,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":305522058178752,"gmtCreate":1715624988438,"gmtModify":1715629363845,"author":{"id":"3578007854846765","authorId":"3578007854846765","name":"于洪水期权实盘","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d471a8d346b58e50781690f920b3c573","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578007854846765","authorIdStr":"3578007854846765"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看好，马上起飞 敬请期待","listText":"看好，马上起飞 敬请期待","text":"看好，马上起飞 敬请期待","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/305522058178752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":248494027849752,"gmtCreate":1701705335176,"gmtModify":1701706347899,"author":{"id":"3578007854846765","authorId":"3578007854846765","name":"于洪水期权实盘","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d471a8d346b58e50781690f920b3c573","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578007854846765","authorIdStr":"3578007854846765"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ </a>老贾真是坑呀，不值得信任","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ </a>老贾真是坑呀，不值得信任","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 老贾真是坑呀，不值得信任","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bebdbf7296424eaef942de6cf56dc2","width":"1242","height":"2688"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/248494027849752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569060097038064","authorId":"3569060097038064","name":"桃大宝","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48dc25a72d7007bba8009ce04d3058f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569060097038064","authorIdStr":"3569060097038064"},"content":"模拟还是实盘","text":"模拟还是实盘","html":"模拟还是实盘"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":859337428,"gmtCreate":1634654661718,"gmtModify":1634654661718,"author":{"id":"3578007854846765","authorId":"3578007854846765","name":"于洪水期权实盘","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d471a8d346b58e50781690f920b3c573","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578007854846765","authorIdStr":"3578007854846765"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$FFIE 20220218 17.5 CALL(FFIE)$</a>搏一下","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$FFIE 20220218 17.5 CALL(FFIE)$</a>搏一下","text":"$FFIE 20220218 17.5 CALL(FFIE)$搏一下","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9037f77ccfe11a3271343e7dc907ad11","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859337428","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2935,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3541665425268897","authorId":"3541665425268897","name":"Max霸霸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e78e34dc9ec51acfd2dc83b21b6fc920","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3541665425268897","authorIdStr":"3541665425268897"},"content":"感觉不够远啊兄弟。我想买明年同期的","text":"感觉不够远啊兄弟。我想买明年同期的","html":"感觉不够远啊兄弟。我想买明年同期的"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":322499519,"gmtCreate":1615819198131,"gmtModify":1703493569690,"author":{"id":"3578007854846765","authorId":"3578007854846765","name":"于洪水期权实盘","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d471a8d346b58e50781690f920b3c573","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578007854846765","authorIdStr":"3578007854846765"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我的实盘账户，欢迎大家围观","listText":"我的实盘账户，欢迎大家围观","text":"我的实盘账户，欢迎大家围观","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322499519","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1007,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":368496642580920,"gmtCreate":1731006483634,"gmtModify":1731015697550,"author":{"id":"3578007854846765","authorId":"3578007854846765","name":"于洪水期权实盘","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d471a8d346b58e50781690f920b3c573","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578007854846765","authorIdStr":"3578007854846765"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NBIS 20241220 22.5 CALL\">$NBIS 20241220 22.5 CALL$</a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NBIS 20241220 22.5 CALL\">$NBIS 20241220 22.5 CALL$</a> ","text":"$NBIS 20241220 22.5 CALL$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe7c089e958ebbfc256562de0a216882","width":"981","height":"1638"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368496642580920","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"24666311378648","authorId":"24666311378648","name":"gmh10086","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"24666311378648","authorIdStr":"24666311378648"},"content":"玩砸了？ [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","text":"玩砸了？ [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","html":"玩砸了？ [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":248494027849752,"gmtCreate":1701705335176,"gmtModify":1701706347899,"author":{"id":"3578007854846765","authorId":"3578007854846765","name":"于洪水期权实盘","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d471a8d346b58e50781690f920b3c573","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578007854846765","authorIdStr":"3578007854846765"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ </a>老贾真是坑呀，不值得信任","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ </a>老贾真是坑呀，不值得信任","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 老贾真是坑呀，不值得信任","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bebdbf7296424eaef942de6cf56dc2","width":"1242","height":"2688"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/248494027849752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569060097038064","authorId":"3569060097038064","name":"桃大宝","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48dc25a72d7007bba8009ce04d3058f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569060097038064","authorIdStr":"3569060097038064"},"content":"模拟还是实盘","text":"模拟还是实盘","html":"模拟还是实盘"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":859337428,"gmtCreate":1634654661718,"gmtModify":1634654661718,"author":{"id":"3578007854846765","authorId":"3578007854846765","name":"于洪水期权实盘","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d471a8d346b58e50781690f920b3c573","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578007854846765","authorIdStr":"3578007854846765"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$FFIE 20220218 17.5 CALL(FFIE)$</a>搏一下","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$FFIE 20220218 17.5 CALL(FFIE)$</a>搏一下","text":"$FFIE 20220218 17.5 CALL(FFIE)$搏一下","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9037f77ccfe11a3271343e7dc907ad11","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859337428","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2935,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3541665425268897","authorId":"3541665425268897","name":"Max霸霸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e78e34dc9ec51acfd2dc83b21b6fc920","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3541665425268897","authorIdStr":"3541665425268897"},"content":"感觉不够远啊兄弟。我想买明年同期的","text":"感觉不够远啊兄弟。我想买明年同期的","html":"感觉不够远啊兄弟。我想买明年同期的"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":368512564670832,"gmtCreate":1731006465270,"gmtModify":1731015697500,"author":{"id":"3578007854846765","authorId":"3578007854846765","name":"于洪水期权实盘","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d471a8d346b58e50781690f920b3c573","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578007854846765","authorIdStr":"3578007854846765"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PINS 20241115 35.0 CALL\">$PINS 20241115 35.0 CALL$</a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PINS 20241115 35.0 CALL\">$PINS 20241115 35.0 CALL$</a> ","text":"$PINS 20241115 35.0 CALL$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd972db102ef39da64313bc2d5365d4a","width":"981","height":"1638"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368512564670832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368512216945008,"gmtCreate":1731006380377,"gmtModify":1731006381232,"author":{"id":"3578007854846765","authorId":"3578007854846765","name":"于洪水期权实盘","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d471a8d346b58e50781690f920b3c573","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578007854846765","authorIdStr":"3578007854846765"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\">$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\">$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> ","text":"$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368512216945008","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":107,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":367734904733856,"gmtCreate":1730796777300,"gmtModify":1730796791335,"author":{"id":"3578007854846765","authorId":"3578007854846765","name":"于洪水期权实盘","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d471a8d346b58e50781690f920b3c573","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578007854846765","authorIdStr":"3578007854846765"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/367734904733856","repostId":"1124836961","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1124836961","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"期权策略分享","home_visible":1,"media_name":"期权女巫","id":"1020040791","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89"},"pubTimestamp":1730788015,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124836961?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-11-05 14:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"期权女巫 | 超微电脑财报在即，是时候用期权策略进行对冲","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124836961","media":"期权女巫","summary":"$超微电脑$将于周三盘后发布业绩， 这只股票当前面临巨大的不确定性，既有积极的一面，也有消极的一面。更具体地说，EY在10月24日通知董事会其辞职的决定。消息传出后，SMCI的股价下跌超过三分之一。潜在投资者可以考虑使用看涨期权。下图显示了一个将于2024年11月22日到期的SMCI看涨期权的信息，行使价为26美元。类似地，现有投资者也可以考虑使用看跌期权来对冲他们在未来1~2周的仓位。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">超微电脑</a>将于周三盘后发布业绩， 这只股票当前面临巨大的不确定性，既有积极的一面，也有消极的一面。</p><p><strong>积极方面</strong>，台积电最近的财报也让市场看到对AI相关芯片的强劲需求持续存在。这预示着SMCI在即将发布的财报中会有强劲的收益表现。然而，消极方面也存在不少重大不确定性。这一点从近期分析师对盈利预测的调整中可以看出。具体来说，在过去一个季度，有4个EPS（每股收益）预测上调和5个下调，显示出投资社区中存在较大的不确定性。</p><p>这种盈利不确定性因最近审计师安永（Ernst & Young，简称EY）的辞职而大大加剧。更具体地说，EY在10月24日通知董事会其辞职的决定。EY辞职的原因包括透明度和内部控制问题。</p><p>消息传出后，SMCI的股价下跌超过三分之一。尽管股价大幅修正，但仍建议投资者避免尝试抄底。像EY这样的知名审计师辞职应是任何投资决策中需要重点考虑的因素。其他近期的辞职案例（例如EY和德勤的辞职）都对投资者造成了不良影响。</p><p>因此，尽管由于最近的价格修正使得估值看起来吸引人，但并不建议潜在投资者尝试抄底。相反，投资者应该对当前的市盈率持怀疑态度，因为财务重述的可能性不容忽视。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c267bc36ef01b762338406a502b241fa\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>最后，基于以上分析，本文将讨论一些可操作的建议，利用期权来管理当前的不确定性。考虑到公司即将于2024年11月6日（周三盘后）发布2025财年第一季度财报，使用期权的时机尤其重要。</p><p>潜在投资者可以考虑使用看涨期权。下图显示了一个将于2024年11月22日到期的SMCI看涨期权的信息（即在即将发布的财报后大约两周），行使价为26美元（与当前价格相近的看涨期权）。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SMCI 20241122 26.0 CALL\" title=\"$SMCI 20241122 26.0 CALL$ \" class=\"immutable-element\">$SMCI 20241122 26.0 CALL$ </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0acc371c4334ef9b6e9f28a91c7e5df9\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"1340\"/></p><p>从图中可以看到，该期权最近的交易价格约为4.65美元。因此，约465美元的投资将赋予期权持有者以26美元的价格购买100股的权利，这相比于直接购买股票（100股需要约2600美元）所需的资金暴露要小得多。类似地，现有投资者也可以考虑使用看跌期权来对冲他们在未来1~2周的仓位。这些具有相同到期日和行使价的看跌期权最近的交易价格约为4.55美元。</p><p><strong>其他风险与最终思考</strong></p><p>除了前面提到的风险外，还有一些其他风险，既包括正面也包括负面的，值得一提。作为一种积极风险，该股票目前的前瞻市盈率（FWD P/E）仅为7.7倍，这个估值相当具有吸引力。此外，考虑到增长率后，市盈率的吸引力更大。例如，2025财年的共识EPS预测为3.37美元，代表着52.57%的显著同比增长。接下来的两年，预计增长率分别为31.73%和23.74%。根据这些预测，PEG比率仅约为0.25倍，而对于追求合理价格增长（GARP）投资者来说，理想的标准是1倍。然而，考虑到上面讨论的EY辞职事件，投资者在解读市盈率时应保持谨慎，并将财务报表重述的可能性纳入考虑。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>期权女巫 | 超微电脑财报在即，是时候用期权策略进行对冲</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权女巫 | 超微电脑财报在即，是时候用期权策略进行对冲\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1020040791\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">期权女巫 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-11-05 14:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">超微电脑</a>将于周三盘后发布业绩， 这只股票当前面临巨大的不确定性，既有积极的一面，也有消极的一面。</p><p><strong>积极方面</strong>，台积电最近的财报也让市场看到对AI相关芯片的强劲需求持续存在。这预示着SMCI在即将发布的财报中会有强劲的收益表现。然而，消极方面也存在不少重大不确定性。这一点从近期分析师对盈利预测的调整中可以看出。具体来说，在过去一个季度，有4个EPS（每股收益）预测上调和5个下调，显示出投资社区中存在较大的不确定性。</p><p>这种盈利不确定性因最近审计师安永（Ernst & Young，简称EY）的辞职而大大加剧。更具体地说，EY在10月24日通知董事会其辞职的决定。EY辞职的原因包括透明度和内部控制问题。</p><p>消息传出后，SMCI的股价下跌超过三分之一。尽管股价大幅修正，但仍建议投资者避免尝试抄底。像EY这样的知名审计师辞职应是任何投资决策中需要重点考虑的因素。其他近期的辞职案例（例如EY和德勤的辞职）都对投资者造成了不良影响。</p><p>因此，尽管由于最近的价格修正使得估值看起来吸引人，但并不建议潜在投资者尝试抄底。相反，投资者应该对当前的市盈率持怀疑态度，因为财务重述的可能性不容忽视。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c267bc36ef01b762338406a502b241fa\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>最后，基于以上分析，本文将讨论一些可操作的建议，利用期权来管理当前的不确定性。考虑到公司即将于2024年11月6日（周三盘后）发布2025财年第一季度财报，使用期权的时机尤其重要。</p><p>潜在投资者可以考虑使用看涨期权。下图显示了一个将于2024年11月22日到期的SMCI看涨期权的信息（即在即将发布的财报后大约两周），行使价为26美元（与当前价格相近的看涨期权）。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SMCI 20241122 26.0 CALL\" title=\"$SMCI 20241122 26.0 CALL$ \" class=\"immutable-element\">$SMCI 20241122 26.0 CALL$ </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0acc371c4334ef9b6e9f28a91c7e5df9\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"1340\"/></p><p>从图中可以看到，该期权最近的交易价格约为4.65美元。因此，约465美元的投资将赋予期权持有者以26美元的价格购买100股的权利，这相比于直接购买股票（100股需要约2600美元）所需的资金暴露要小得多。类似地，现有投资者也可以考虑使用看跌期权来对冲他们在未来1~2周的仓位。这些具有相同到期日和行使价的看跌期权最近的交易价格约为4.55美元。</p><p><strong>其他风险与最终思考</strong></p><p>除了前面提到的风险外，还有一些其他风险，既包括正面也包括负面的，值得一提。作为一种积极风险，该股票目前的前瞻市盈率（FWD P/E）仅为7.7倍，这个估值相当具有吸引力。此外，考虑到增长率后，市盈率的吸引力更大。例如，2025财年的共识EPS预测为3.37美元，代表着52.57%的显著同比增长。接下来的两年，预计增长率分别为31.73%和23.74%。根据这些预测，PEG比率仅约为0.25倍，而对于追求合理价格增长（GARP）投资者来说，理想的标准是1倍。然而，考虑到上面讨论的EY辞职事件，投资者在解读市盈率时应保持谨慎，并将财务报表重述的可能性纳入考虑。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd9b4b7cbec67c68f3fbf44b021799e","relate_stocks":{"SMCI":"超微电脑"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124836961","content_text":"超微电脑将于周三盘后发布业绩， 这只股票当前面临巨大的不确定性，既有积极的一面，也有消极的一面。积极方面，台积电最近的财报也让市场看到对AI相关芯片的强劲需求持续存在。这预示着SMCI在即将发布的财报中会有强劲的收益表现。然而，消极方面也存在不少重大不确定性。这一点从近期分析师对盈利预测的调整中可以看出。具体来说，在过去一个季度，有4个EPS（每股收益）预测上调和5个下调，显示出投资社区中存在较大的不确定性。这种盈利不确定性因最近审计师安永（Ernst & Young，简称EY）的辞职而大大加剧。更具体地说，EY在10月24日通知董事会其辞职的决定。EY辞职的原因包括透明度和内部控制问题。消息传出后，SMCI的股价下跌超过三分之一。尽管股价大幅修正，但仍建议投资者避免尝试抄底。像EY这样的知名审计师辞职应是任何投资决策中需要重点考虑的因素。其他近期的辞职案例（例如EY和德勤的辞职）都对投资者造成了不良影响。因此，尽管由于最近的价格修正使得估值看起来吸引人，但并不建议潜在投资者尝试抄底。相反，投资者应该对当前的市盈率持怀疑态度，因为财务重述的可能性不容忽视。最后，基于以上分析，本文将讨论一些可操作的建议，利用期权来管理当前的不确定性。考虑到公司即将于2024年11月6日（周三盘后）发布2025财年第一季度财报，使用期权的时机尤其重要。潜在投资者可以考虑使用看涨期权。下图显示了一个将于2024年11月22日到期的SMCI看涨期权的信息（即在即将发布的财报后大约两周），行使价为26美元（与当前价格相近的看涨期权）。$SMCI 20241122 26.0 CALL$ 从图中可以看到，该期权最近的交易价格约为4.65美元。因此，约465美元的投资将赋予期权持有者以26美元的价格购买100股的权利，这相比于直接购买股票（100股需要约2600美元）所需的资金暴露要小得多。类似地，现有投资者也可以考虑使用看跌期权来对冲他们在未来1~2周的仓位。这些具有相同到期日和行使价的看跌期权最近的交易价格约为4.55美元。其他风险与最终思考除了前面提到的风险外，还有一些其他风险，既包括正面也包括负面的，值得一提。作为一种积极风险，该股票目前的前瞻市盈率（FWD P/E）仅为7.7倍，这个估值相当具有吸引力。此外，考虑到增长率后，市盈率的吸引力更大。例如，2025财年的共识EPS预测为3.37美元，代表着52.57%的显著同比增长。接下来的两年，预计增长率分别为31.73%和23.74%。根据这些预测，PEG比率仅约为0.25倍，而对于追求合理价格增长（GARP）投资者来说，理想的标准是1倍。然而，考虑到上面讨论的EY辞职事件，投资者在解读市盈率时应保持谨慎，并将财务报表重述的可能性纳入考虑。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":94,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":305804670537992,"gmtCreate":1715693914953,"gmtModify":1715693916100,"author":{"id":"3578007854846765","authorId":"3578007854846765","name":"于洪水期权实盘","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d471a8d346b58e50781690f920b3c573","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578007854846765","authorIdStr":"3578007854846765"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ </a> 所以让我们 最后再相信一次贾跃亭吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ </a> 所以让我们 最后再相信一次贾跃亭吧","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 所以让我们 最后再相信一次贾跃亭吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/305804670537992","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":676,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":305522058178752,"gmtCreate":1715624988438,"gmtModify":1715629363845,"author":{"id":"3578007854846765","authorId":"3578007854846765","name":"于洪水期权实盘","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d471a8d346b58e50781690f920b3c573","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578007854846765","authorIdStr":"3578007854846765"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看好，马上起飞 敬请期待","listText":"看好，马上起飞 敬请期待","text":"看好，马上起飞 敬请期待","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/305522058178752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":322499519,"gmtCreate":1615819198131,"gmtModify":1703493569690,"author":{"id":"3578007854846765","authorId":"3578007854846765","name":"于洪水期权实盘","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d471a8d346b58e50781690f920b3c573","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578007854846765","authorIdStr":"3578007854846765"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我的实盘账户，欢迎大家围观","listText":"我的实盘账户，欢迎大家围观","text":"我的实盘账户，欢迎大家围观","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322499519","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1007,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
