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德育果
2022-06-07
$Visionary Education Technology Holdings Group Inc(VEDU)$
中盖涨不涨,美股涨也不涨,不知道这是个啥,能不能来几天猛拉
德育果
2022-06-06
$Visionary Education Technology Holdings Group Inc(VEDU)$
这……还要下吗
德育果
2021-09-28
玩的是个JJ
德育果
2021-09-28
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
玩个J,B
德育果
2021-07-28
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
跌起来好6
德育果
2021-07-27
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
666
德育果
2021-06-11
Tiger is here!
以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响
德育果
2021-06-11
Tiger is here!
以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响
德育果
2021-06-11
Tiger is here!
以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响
德育果
2021-06-11
Tiger is here!
一张图读懂滴滴招股书:遍布15国,日均单量4100万
德育果
2021-04-15
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
开始跌
德育果
2021-03-24
$Color Star Technology Co. Ltd(CSCW)$
🙈🙈难过
德育果
2021-03-24
$Color Star Technology Co. Ltd(CSCW)$
高位
德育果
2021-03-23
$Dolphin Entertainment, Inc.(DLPN)$
郁闷
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>666","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803066333","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1803,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":181483951,"gmtCreate":1623406724973,"gmtModify":1623406724973,"author":{"id":"3577744619982961","authorId":"3577744619982961","name":"德育果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d88f33d69d5ad921fb729ba1fe181c8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577744619982961","authorIdStr":"3577744619982961"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here!","listText":"Tiger is here!","text":"Tiger is here!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181483951","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156453091?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。<b>美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。</b>我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:</p>\n<p><b>1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次</b>(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。</p>\n<p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>:经济陷入衰退,但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在,通胀持续上升,美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1973/03-1982/11:</b>粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下,美国经济陷入滞胀,供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败,货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后,未能成功抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1987/08-1991/07:</b>走出滞胀后,美国经济经历了高速增长,但1987年开始经济增速放缓,并出现工资和价格上涨压力,美联储收紧货币政策。</p>\n<p><b>2007/11-2008/09:</b>油价飙升推升通胀,金融危机爆发,美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市,通胀不在其重点关注范围内。</p>\n<p><b>当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似,均为成本推动。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。</b>今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平),但是<b>从CPI指数角度,2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。</b></p>\n<p><b>对于今年通胀的演绎,我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。</b></p>\n<p><b>通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。</b>东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工,芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足,二手车需求剧增,价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据,2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外,5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大,交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%,增幅翻倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。</b>美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%),尽管相对于其它分项,房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%),但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4),我们<b>预计受到供给短缺的影响,未来房租将会持续温和地上升</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>通胀预期走势如何?</b></p>\n<p>从消费者的角度,密西根预期通胀率数据显示,2<b>021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5),但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。</b></p>\n<p>从政策制定者角度,如我们此前报告所述,美联储注重通胀预期的监测,关键指标为<b>共同通胀预期指数(CIE),CIE为季度数据,预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?</b></p>\n<p>我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中,CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2):<b>通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响,前者较为滞后,后者1个月内即有体现。</b>有趣的是,通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性,关于美债的研究框架,请参考我们此前的报告。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>风险提示:</b>美联储过快收紧货币政策,地缘政治风险加剧</p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母E,参与《老虎大搜查》活动,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币,如集齐7张图片并留言,还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。(详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 </a>了解)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 21:58 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09:经济陷入衰退,但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在,通胀持续上升,美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11:粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下,美国经济陷入滞胀,供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败,货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后,未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07:走出滞胀后,美国经济经历了高速增长,但1987年开始经济增速放缓,并出现工资和价格上涨压力,美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09:油价飙升推升通胀,金融危机爆发,美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市,通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似,均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平),但是从CPI指数角度,2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎,我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工,芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足,二手车需求剧增,价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据,2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外,5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大,交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%,增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%),尽管相对于其它分项,房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%),但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4),我们预计受到供给短缺的影响,未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度,密西根预期通胀率数据显示,2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5),但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度,如我们此前报告所述,美联储注重通胀预期的监测,关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE),CIE为季度数据,预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中,CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2):通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响,前者较为滞后,后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是,通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性,关于美债的研究框架,请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示:美联储过快收紧货币政策,地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E,参与《老虎大搜查》活动,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币,如集齐7张图片并留言,还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。(详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181415545,"gmtCreate":1623406528787,"gmtModify":1623406528787,"author":{"id":"3577744619982961","authorId":"3577744619982961","name":"德育果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d88f33d69d5ad921fb729ba1fe181c8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577744619982961","authorIdStr":"3577744619982961"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here!","listText":"Tiger is here!","text":"Tiger is here!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181415545","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156453091?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。<b>美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。</b>我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:</p>\n<p><b>1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次</b>(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。</p>\n<p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>:经济陷入衰退,但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在,通胀持续上升,美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1973/03-1982/11:</b>粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下,美国经济陷入滞胀,供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败,货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后,未能成功抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1987/08-1991/07:</b>走出滞胀后,美国经济经历了高速增长,但1987年开始经济增速放缓,并出现工资和价格上涨压力,美联储收紧货币政策。</p>\n<p><b>2007/11-2008/09:</b>油价飙升推升通胀,金融危机爆发,美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市,通胀不在其重点关注范围内。</p>\n<p><b>当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似,均为成本推动。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。</b>今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平),但是<b>从CPI指数角度,2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。</b></p>\n<p><b>对于今年通胀的演绎,我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。</b></p>\n<p><b>通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。</b>东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工,芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足,二手车需求剧增,价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据,2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外,5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大,交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%,增幅翻倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。</b>美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%),尽管相对于其它分项,房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%),但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4),我们<b>预计受到供给短缺的影响,未来房租将会持续温和地上升</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>通胀预期走势如何?</b></p>\n<p>从消费者的角度,密西根预期通胀率数据显示,2<b>021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5),但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。</b></p>\n<p>从政策制定者角度,如我们此前报告所述,美联储注重通胀预期的监测,关键指标为<b>共同通胀预期指数(CIE),CIE为季度数据,预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?</b></p>\n<p>我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中,CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2):<b>通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响,前者较为滞后,后者1个月内即有体现。</b>有趣的是,通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性,关于美债的研究框架,请参考我们此前的报告。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>风险提示:</b>美联储过快收紧货币政策,地缘政治风险加剧</p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母E,参与《老虎大搜查》活动,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币,如集齐7张图片并留言,还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。(详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 </a>了解)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 21:58 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09:经济陷入衰退,但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在,通胀持续上升,美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11:粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下,美国经济陷入滞胀,供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败,货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后,未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07:走出滞胀后,美国经济经历了高速增长,但1987年开始经济增速放缓,并出现工资和价格上涨压力,美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09:油价飙升推升通胀,金融危机爆发,美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市,通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似,均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平),但是从CPI指数角度,2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎,我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工,芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足,二手车需求剧增,价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据,2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外,5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大,交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%,增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%),尽管相对于其它分项,房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%),但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4),我们预计受到供给短缺的影响,未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度,密西根预期通胀率数据显示,2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5),但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度,如我们此前报告所述,美联储注重通胀预期的监测,关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE),CIE为季度数据,预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中,CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2):通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响,前者较为滞后,后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是,通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性,关于美债的研究框架,请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示:美联储过快收紧货币政策,地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E,参与《老虎大搜查》活动,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币,如集齐7张图片并留言,还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。(详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":622,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181415914,"gmtCreate":1623406514238,"gmtModify":1623406514238,"author":{"id":"3577744619982961","authorId":"3577744619982961","name":"德育果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d88f33d69d5ad921fb729ba1fe181c8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577744619982961","authorIdStr":"3577744619982961"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here!","listText":"Tiger is here!","text":"Tiger is here!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181415914","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156453091?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。<b>美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。</b>我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:</p>\n<p><b>1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次</b>(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。</p>\n<p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>:经济陷入衰退,但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在,通胀持续上升,美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1973/03-1982/11:</b>粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下,美国经济陷入滞胀,供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败,货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后,未能成功抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1987/08-1991/07:</b>走出滞胀后,美国经济经历了高速增长,但1987年开始经济增速放缓,并出现工资和价格上涨压力,美联储收紧货币政策。</p>\n<p><b>2007/11-2008/09:</b>油价飙升推升通胀,金融危机爆发,美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市,通胀不在其重点关注范围内。</p>\n<p><b>当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似,均为成本推动。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。</b>今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平),但是<b>从CPI指数角度,2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。</b></p>\n<p><b>对于今年通胀的演绎,我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。</b></p>\n<p><b>通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。</b>东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工,芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足,二手车需求剧增,价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据,2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外,5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大,交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%,增幅翻倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。</b>美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%),尽管相对于其它分项,房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%),但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4),我们<b>预计受到供给短缺的影响,未来房租将会持续温和地上升</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>通胀预期走势如何?</b></p>\n<p>从消费者的角度,密西根预期通胀率数据显示,2<b>021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5),但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。</b></p>\n<p>从政策制定者角度,如我们此前报告所述,美联储注重通胀预期的监测,关键指标为<b>共同通胀预期指数(CIE),CIE为季度数据,预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?</b></p>\n<p>我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中,CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2):<b>通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响,前者较为滞后,后者1个月内即有体现。</b>有趣的是,通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性,关于美债的研究框架,请参考我们此前的报告。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>风险提示:</b>美联储过快收紧货币政策,地缘政治风险加剧</p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母E,参与《老虎大搜查》活动,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币,如集齐7张图片并留言,还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。(详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 </a>了解)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 21:58 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09:经济陷入衰退,但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在,通胀持续上升,美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11:粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下,美国经济陷入滞胀,供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败,货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后,未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07:走出滞胀后,美国经济经历了高速增长,但1987年开始经济增速放缓,并出现工资和价格上涨压力,美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09:油价飙升推升通胀,金融危机爆发,美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市,通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似,均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平),但是从CPI指数角度,2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎,我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工,芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足,二手车需求剧增,价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据,2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外,5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大,交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%,增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%),尽管相对于其它分项,房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%),但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4),我们预计受到供给短缺的影响,未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度,密西根预期通胀率数据显示,2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5),但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度,如我们此前报告所述,美联储注重通胀预期的监测,关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE),CIE为季度数据,预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中,CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2):通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响,前者较为滞后,后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是,通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性,关于美债的研究框架,请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示:美联储过快收紧货币政策,地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E,参与《老虎大搜查》活动,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币,如集齐7张图片并留言,还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。(详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181418099,"gmtCreate":1623406396811,"gmtModify":1623406396811,"author":{"id":"3577744619982961","authorId":"3577744619982961","name":"德育果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d88f33d69d5ad921fb729ba1fe181c8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577744619982961","authorIdStr":"3577744619982961"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here!","listText":"Tiger is here!","text":"Tiger is here!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181418099","repostId":"1140839418","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1140839418","pubTimestamp":1623382205,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1140839418?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 11:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"一张图读懂滴滴招股书:遍布15国,日均单量4100万","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140839418","media":"腾讯科技","summary":"6月11日消息,美国当地时间周四,$滴滴出行 $的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会提交了IPO招股书,计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市,股票代码为“DIDI”。根据滴滴披露的数据显示,目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务,年活跃用户数量4.93亿,年活跃司机数量1500万,日均单量4100万,年平台交易总额3410亿元,2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。","content":"<p>6月11日消息,美国当地时间周四,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴出行</a>的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交了IPO招股书,计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市,股票代码为“DIDI”。</p>\n<p>根据滴滴披露的数据显示,目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务,年活跃用户数量4.93亿,年活跃司机数量1500万,日均单量4100万,年平台交易总额3410亿元,2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935c6b681f2f3744604b5596e29cac\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"13686\"></p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母I,参与《老虎大搜查》活动,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币,如集齐7张图片并留言,还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。(详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查</a> 了解)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba72fe98df37f49a4d31b0a0684a03aa\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<p></p>","source":"txkj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>一张图读懂滴滴招股书:遍布15国,日均单量4100万</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n一张图读懂滴滴招股书:遍布15国,日均单量4100万\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-11 11:30 北京时间 <a href=https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800><strong>腾讯科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>6月11日消息,美国当地时间周四,滴滴出行的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交了IPO招股书,计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市,股票代码为“DIDI”。\n根据滴滴披露的数据显示,目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务,年活跃用户数量4.93亿,年活跃司机数量1500万,日均单量4100万,年平台交易总额3410亿元,2018年至2021年Q1累计司机...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9f14473f3e986de32cc80f6fd80b679","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140839418","content_text":"6月11日消息,美国当地时间周四,滴滴出行的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交了IPO招股书,计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市,股票代码为“DIDI”。\n根据滴滴披露的数据显示,目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务,年活跃用户数量4.93亿,年活跃司机数量1500万,日均单量4100万,年平台交易总额3410亿元,2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。\n\n\n恭喜您找到了字母I,参与《老虎大搜查》活动,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币,如集齐7张图片并留言,还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。(详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344438918,"gmtCreate":1618423678034,"gmtModify":1618423678034,"author":{"id":"3577744619982961","authorId":"3577744619982961","name":"德育果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d88f33d69d5ad921fb729ba1fe181c8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577744619982961","authorIdStr":"3577744619982961"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>开始跌","listText":"<a 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Ltd(CSCW)$高位","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8344978a73f1f5c8e2bc5c074e6ef4ec","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351834493","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1959,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":617549617,"gmtCreate":1654524203544,"gmtModify":1704859621696,"author":{"id":"3577744619982961","authorId":"3577744619982961","name":"德育果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d88f33d69d5ad921fb729ba1fe181c8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577744619982961","authorIdStr":"3577744619982961"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VEDU\">$Visionary Education Technology Holdings Group Inc(VEDU)$</a>这……还要下吗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VEDU\">$Visionary Education Technology Holdings Group Inc(VEDU)$</a>这……还要下吗","text":"$Visionary Education Technology Holdings Group Inc(VEDU)$这……还要下吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/617549617","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1903,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":181483951,"gmtCreate":1623406724973,"gmtModify":1623406724973,"author":{"id":"3577744619982961","authorId":"3577744619982961","name":"德育果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d88f33d69d5ad921fb729ba1fe181c8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577744619982961","authorIdStr":"3577744619982961"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here!","listText":"Tiger is here!","text":"Tiger is here!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181483951","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156453091?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。<b>美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。</b>我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:</p>\n<p><b>1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次</b>(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。</p>\n<p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>:经济陷入衰退,但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在,通胀持续上升,美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1973/03-1982/11:</b>粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下,美国经济陷入滞胀,供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败,货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后,未能成功抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1987/08-1991/07:</b>走出滞胀后,美国经济经历了高速增长,但1987年开始经济增速放缓,并出现工资和价格上涨压力,美联储收紧货币政策。</p>\n<p><b>2007/11-2008/09:</b>油价飙升推升通胀,金融危机爆发,美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市,通胀不在其重点关注范围内。</p>\n<p><b>当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似,均为成本推动。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。</b>今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平),但是<b>从CPI指数角度,2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。</b></p>\n<p><b>对于今年通胀的演绎,我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。</b></p>\n<p><b>通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。</b>东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工,芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足,二手车需求剧增,价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据,2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外,5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大,交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%,增幅翻倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。</b>美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%),尽管相对于其它分项,房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%),但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4),我们<b>预计受到供给短缺的影响,未来房租将会持续温和地上升</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>通胀预期走势如何?</b></p>\n<p>从消费者的角度,密西根预期通胀率数据显示,2<b>021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5),但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。</b></p>\n<p>从政策制定者角度,如我们此前报告所述,美联储注重通胀预期的监测,关键指标为<b>共同通胀预期指数(CIE),CIE为季度数据,预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?</b></p>\n<p>我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中,CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2):<b>通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响,前者较为滞后,后者1个月内即有体现。</b>有趣的是,通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性,关于美债的研究框架,请参考我们此前的报告。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>风险提示:</b>美联储过快收紧货币政策,地缘政治风险加剧</p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母E,参与《老虎大搜查》活动,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币,如集齐7张图片并留言,还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。(详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 </a>了解)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 21:58 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09:经济陷入衰退,但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在,通胀持续上升,美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11:粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下,美国经济陷入滞胀,供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败,货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后,未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07:走出滞胀后,美国经济经历了高速增长,但1987年开始经济增速放缓,并出现工资和价格上涨压力,美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09:油价飙升推升通胀,金融危机爆发,美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市,通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似,均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平),但是从CPI指数角度,2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎,我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工,芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足,二手车需求剧增,价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据,2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外,5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大,交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%,增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%),尽管相对于其它分项,房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%),但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4),我们预计受到供给短缺的影响,未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度,密西根预期通胀率数据显示,2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5),但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度,如我们此前报告所述,美联储注重通胀预期的监测,关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE),CIE为季度数据,预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中,CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2):通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响,前者较为滞后,后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是,通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性,关于美债的研究框架,请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示:美联储过快收紧货币政策,地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E,参与《老虎大搜查》活动,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币,如集齐7张图片并留言,还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。(详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":617710413,"gmtCreate":1654609676533,"gmtModify":1704859879353,"author":{"id":"3577744619982961","authorId":"3577744619982961","name":"德育果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d88f33d69d5ad921fb729ba1fe181c8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577744619982961","authorIdStr":"3577744619982961"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VEDU\">$Visionary Education Technology Holdings Group Inc(VEDU)$</a>中盖涨不涨,美股涨也不涨,不知道这是个啥,能不能来几天猛拉","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VEDU\">$Visionary Education Technology Holdings Group Inc(VEDU)$</a>中盖涨不涨,美股涨也不涨,不知道这是个啥,能不能来几天猛拉","text":"$Visionary Education Technology Holdings Group Inc(VEDU)$中盖涨不涨,美股涨也不涨,不知道这是个啥,能不能来几天猛拉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/617710413","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862320563,"gmtCreate":1632838572836,"gmtModify":1632839466612,"author":{"id":"3577744619982961","authorId":"3577744619982961","name":"德育果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d88f33d69d5ad921fb729ba1fe181c8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577744619982961","authorIdStr":"3577744619982961"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"玩的是个JJ","listText":"玩的是个JJ","text":"玩的是个JJ","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862320563","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862367289,"gmtCreate":1632838516484,"gmtModify":1632839466613,"author":{"id":"3577744619982961","authorId":"3577744619982961","name":"德育果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d88f33d69d5ad921fb729ba1fe181c8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577744619982961","authorIdStr":"3577744619982961"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>玩个J,B","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>玩个J,B","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$玩个J,B","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862367289","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1775,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":803947624,"gmtCreate":1627404994368,"gmtModify":1627404994368,"author":{"id":"3577744619982961","authorId":"3577744619982961","name":"德育果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d88f33d69d5ad921fb729ba1fe181c8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577744619982961","authorIdStr":"3577744619982961"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>跌起来好6","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>跌起来好6","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$跌起来好6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803947624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1682,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":181415545,"gmtCreate":1623406528787,"gmtModify":1623406528787,"author":{"id":"3577744619982961","authorId":"3577744619982961","name":"德育果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d88f33d69d5ad921fb729ba1fe181c8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577744619982961","authorIdStr":"3577744619982961"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here!","listText":"Tiger is here!","text":"Tiger is here!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181415545","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156453091?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。<b>美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。</b>我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:</p>\n<p><b>1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次</b>(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。</p>\n<p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>:经济陷入衰退,但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在,通胀持续上升,美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1973/03-1982/11:</b>粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下,美国经济陷入滞胀,供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败,货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后,未能成功抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1987/08-1991/07:</b>走出滞胀后,美国经济经历了高速增长,但1987年开始经济增速放缓,并出现工资和价格上涨压力,美联储收紧货币政策。</p>\n<p><b>2007/11-2008/09:</b>油价飙升推升通胀,金融危机爆发,美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市,通胀不在其重点关注范围内。</p>\n<p><b>当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似,均为成本推动。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。</b>今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平),但是<b>从CPI指数角度,2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。</b></p>\n<p><b>对于今年通胀的演绎,我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。</b></p>\n<p><b>通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。</b>东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工,芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足,二手车需求剧增,价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据,2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外,5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大,交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%,增幅翻倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。</b>美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%),尽管相对于其它分项,房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%),但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4),我们<b>预计受到供给短缺的影响,未来房租将会持续温和地上升</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>通胀预期走势如何?</b></p>\n<p>从消费者的角度,密西根预期通胀率数据显示,2<b>021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5),但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。</b></p>\n<p>从政策制定者角度,如我们此前报告所述,美联储注重通胀预期的监测,关键指标为<b>共同通胀预期指数(CIE),CIE为季度数据,预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?</b></p>\n<p>我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中,CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2):<b>通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响,前者较为滞后,后者1个月内即有体现。</b>有趣的是,通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性,关于美债的研究框架,请参考我们此前的报告。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>风险提示:</b>美联储过快收紧货币政策,地缘政治风险加剧</p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母E,参与《老虎大搜查》活动,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币,如集齐7张图片并留言,还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。(详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 </a>了解)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 21:58 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09:经济陷入衰退,但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在,通胀持续上升,美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11:粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下,美国经济陷入滞胀,供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败,货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后,未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07:走出滞胀后,美国经济经历了高速增长,但1987年开始经济增速放缓,并出现工资和价格上涨压力,美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09:油价飙升推升通胀,金融危机爆发,美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市,通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似,均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平),但是从CPI指数角度,2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎,我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工,芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足,二手车需求剧增,价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据,2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外,5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大,交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%,增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%),尽管相对于其它分项,房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%),但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4),我们预计受到供给短缺的影响,未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度,密西根预期通胀率数据显示,2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5),但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度,如我们此前报告所述,美联储注重通胀预期的监测,关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE),CIE为季度数据,预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中,CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2):通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响,前者较为滞后,后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是,通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性,关于美债的研究框架,请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示:美联储过快收紧货币政策,地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E,参与《老虎大搜查》活动,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币,如集齐7张图片并留言,还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。(详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":622,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181415914,"gmtCreate":1623406514238,"gmtModify":1623406514238,"author":{"id":"3577744619982961","authorId":"3577744619982961","name":"德育果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d88f33d69d5ad921fb729ba1fe181c8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577744619982961","authorIdStr":"3577744619982961"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here!","listText":"Tiger is here!","text":"Tiger is here!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181415914","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156453091?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。<b>美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。</b>我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:</p>\n<p><b>1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次</b>(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。</p>\n<p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>:经济陷入衰退,但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在,通胀持续上升,美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1973/03-1982/11:</b>粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下,美国经济陷入滞胀,供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败,货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后,未能成功抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1987/08-1991/07:</b>走出滞胀后,美国经济经历了高速增长,但1987年开始经济增速放缓,并出现工资和价格上涨压力,美联储收紧货币政策。</p>\n<p><b>2007/11-2008/09:</b>油价飙升推升通胀,金融危机爆发,美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市,通胀不在其重点关注范围内。</p>\n<p><b>当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似,均为成本推动。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。</b>今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平),但是<b>从CPI指数角度,2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。</b></p>\n<p><b>对于今年通胀的演绎,我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。</b></p>\n<p><b>通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。</b>东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工,芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足,二手车需求剧增,价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据,2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外,5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大,交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%,增幅翻倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。</b>美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%),尽管相对于其它分项,房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%),但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4),我们<b>预计受到供给短缺的影响,未来房租将会持续温和地上升</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>通胀预期走势如何?</b></p>\n<p>从消费者的角度,密西根预期通胀率数据显示,2<b>021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5),但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。</b></p>\n<p>从政策制定者角度,如我们此前报告所述,美联储注重通胀预期的监测,关键指标为<b>共同通胀预期指数(CIE),CIE为季度数据,预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?</b></p>\n<p>我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中,CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2):<b>通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响,前者较为滞后,后者1个月内即有体现。</b>有趣的是,通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性,关于美债的研究框架,请参考我们此前的报告。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>风险提示:</b>美联储过快收紧货币政策,地缘政治风险加剧</p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母E,参与《老虎大搜查》活动,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币,如集齐7张图片并留言,还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。(详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 </a>了解)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 21:58 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09:经济陷入衰退,但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在,通胀持续上升,美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11:粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下,美国经济陷入滞胀,供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败,货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后,未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07:走出滞胀后,美国经济经历了高速增长,但1987年开始经济增速放缓,并出现工资和价格上涨压力,美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09:油价飙升推升通胀,金融危机爆发,美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市,通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似,均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平),但是从CPI指数角度,2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎,我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工,芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足,二手车需求剧增,价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据,2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外,5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大,交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%,增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%),尽管相对于其它分项,房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%),但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4),我们预计受到供给短缺的影响,未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度,密西根预期通胀率数据显示,2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5),但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度,如我们此前报告所述,美联储注重通胀预期的监测,关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE),CIE为季度数据,预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中,CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2):通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响,前者较为滞后,后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是,通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性,关于美债的研究框架,请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示:美联储过快收紧货币政策,地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E,参与《老虎大搜查》活动,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币,如集齐7张图片并留言,还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。(详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181418099,"gmtCreate":1623406396811,"gmtModify":1623406396811,"author":{"id":"3577744619982961","authorId":"3577744619982961","name":"德育果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d88f33d69d5ad921fb729ba1fe181c8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577744619982961","authorIdStr":"3577744619982961"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here!","listText":"Tiger is here!","text":"Tiger is here!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181418099","repostId":"1140839418","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1140839418","pubTimestamp":1623382205,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1140839418?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 11:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"一张图读懂滴滴招股书:遍布15国,日均单量4100万","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140839418","media":"腾讯科技","summary":"6月11日消息,美国当地时间周四,$滴滴出行 $的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会提交了IPO招股书,计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市,股票代码为“DIDI”。根据滴滴披露的数据显示,目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务,年活跃用户数量4.93亿,年活跃司机数量1500万,日均单量4100万,年平台交易总额3410亿元,2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。","content":"<p>6月11日消息,美国当地时间周四,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴出行</a>的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交了IPO招股书,计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市,股票代码为“DIDI”。</p>\n<p>根据滴滴披露的数据显示,目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务,年活跃用户数量4.93亿,年活跃司机数量1500万,日均单量4100万,年平台交易总额3410亿元,2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935c6b681f2f3744604b5596e29cac\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"13686\"></p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母I,参与《老虎大搜查》活动,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币,如集齐7张图片并留言,还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。(详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查</a> 了解)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba72fe98df37f49a4d31b0a0684a03aa\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<p></p>","source":"txkj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>一张图读懂滴滴招股书:遍布15国,日均单量4100万</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n一张图读懂滴滴招股书:遍布15国,日均单量4100万\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-11 11:30 北京时间 <a href=https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800><strong>腾讯科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>6月11日消息,美国当地时间周四,滴滴出行的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交了IPO招股书,计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市,股票代码为“DIDI”。\n根据滴滴披露的数据显示,目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务,年活跃用户数量4.93亿,年活跃司机数量1500万,日均单量4100万,年平台交易总额3410亿元,2018年至2021年Q1累计司机...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9f14473f3e986de32cc80f6fd80b679","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140839418","content_text":"6月11日消息,美国当地时间周四,滴滴出行的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交了IPO招股书,计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市,股票代码为“DIDI”。\n根据滴滴披露的数据显示,目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务,年活跃用户数量4.93亿,年活跃司机数量1500万,日均单量4100万,年平台交易总额3410亿元,2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。\n\n\n恭喜您找到了字母I,参与《老虎大搜查》活动,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币,如集齐7张图片并留言,还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。(详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351817200,"gmtCreate":1616584079000,"gmtModify":1616584079000,"author":{"id":"3577744619982961","authorId":"3577744619982961","name":"德育果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d88f33d69d5ad921fb729ba1fe181c8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577744619982961","authorIdStr":"3577744619982961"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCW\">$Color Star Technology Co. 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