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real大牛哥哥
2022-12-09
老马该把SpaceX搞上市了
抱歉,原内容已删除
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10:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"观点 | MS的麻烦可能大了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195857461","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"昨天晚些时候彭博发了这么一个消息,马斯克购买推特后面的银行财团(MS为首),正在考虑把马斯克的贷款给替换了,原来的利息太高。这样做的好处,是可以减少马斯克的负担。这个新闻表面上看上去平平无奇,但是逻辑","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>昨天晚些时候彭博发了这么一个消息,马斯克购买推特后面的银行财团(MS为首),正在考虑把马斯克的贷款给替换了,原来的利息太高。这样做的好处,是可以减少马斯克的负担。</p><p>这个新闻表面上看上去平平无奇,但是逻辑上却非常不对。银行不就靠着收利息赚钱吗,收的利息越高越好,什么时候突然想到为客户减轻负担,让自己少赚钱?下图是新闻截图。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1836dd4ad64a6fbf978703f82765162\" tg-width=\"542\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>根据这个新闻,马斯克现在每年的利息支出就是$12亿,这个比我之前的估计还多了$2亿。推特在马斯克手上就是个烫手的山芋,可以让世界首富变成世界首负。下面是我之前对推特收购案中的贷款的评论。</p><p><i>“马斯克一直对11月初卖股没有评论,也就暗示了他可能还会卖股。除了这些可能要退回的外国资金,马斯克收购中还有$130亿银行资金需要偿还,这是大头。目前美国的利率高企,所以这些贷款的年利息就会高达$10亿,再加上推特本身又是个赔钱的公司,所以马斯克现在拿着推特非常难受。屋漏偏逢连夜雨,广告商现在还纷纷退出推特,马斯克裁码农就能解决问题?应该是把问题越搞越大。”</i></p><p>现在回到核心问题,为什么MS要主动帮客户提出减轻利息支出?而且从彭博的新闻来看,MS的态度比马斯克更积极,更想推动给贷款降利息的工作,特别是去置换那部分没有抵押的贷款($30亿)。(The discussions have so far focused on how to replace $3 billion of unsecured debt on which Twitter pays an interest rate of 11.75%)。</p><p>一切都很反常,银行想为了客户降息,客户却不着急(不然这事儿也用不着曝光,很快双方就应该定了)。我能想到的一个合理解释是这样——</p><p>马斯克的特斯拉股票质押率非常高,下表是之前的统计。MS和他的关系最好,所以很有可能这些股票的绝大部分都在MS。根据当前股价来看(每股$170,2020年等同于每股$510),他2020年就质押了大约$450亿,考虑到之前的股价更高,实际套现金额说不定更高,这是个非常大的数字。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baf49d907cff4d938d3cef8d8240f016\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>现在特斯拉股价已经回撤了50%,按照规定,MS必须要马斯克质押更多股票或者是让马斯克还钱。但MS接受的特斯拉股票质押可能已经太多,风控部门已经不允许马斯克继续质押股票了(想想当年乐视老板质押的股票),所以只能让马斯克还钱。但是马斯克现在是没钱的,要还钱就只能大量卖股票,而卖股票对于MS来说就是快速死亡,会触发一系列Margin Call。</p><p>所以MS现在和马斯克绑定到一条船上了,这件事情对于MS非常不好。MS现在只能祈求马斯克自己能够度过难关,特斯拉股价能够挺住,不然风控到了最后肯定会要求清仓。现在唯一能够帮助马斯克的,就是帮他债务负担减轻一点。MS要想办法,把那笔没有抵押的$30亿换成有抵押的$30亿,至少在极端情况下,有些资产可以追溯回来。现在这件事没谈下来,可能就是马斯克不同意用资产去质押贷款,即使利息便宜一些,死猪不怕开水烫的样子。</p><p>MS麻烦大了。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1635821181494","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>观点 | MS的麻烦可能大了</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n观点 | MS的麻烦可能大了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-09 10:40 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TnWqCOudhAzzghKEUDkblA><strong>老虎锐评</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>昨天晚些时候彭博发了这么一个消息,马斯克购买推特后面的银行财团(MS为首),正在考虑把马斯克的贷款给替换了,原来的利息太高。这样做的好处,是可以减少马斯克的负担。这个新闻表面上看上去平平无奇,但是逻辑上却非常不对。银行不就靠着收利息赚钱吗,收的利息越高越好,什么时候突然想到为客户减轻负担,让自己少赚钱?下图是新闻截图。根据这个新闻,马斯克现在每年的利息支出就是$12亿,这个比我之前的估计还多了$2...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TnWqCOudhAzzghKEUDkblA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2c0b8b70e62c31099a0930308087d87","relate_stocks":{"TWTR":"Twitter"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TnWqCOudhAzzghKEUDkblA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195857461","content_text":"昨天晚些时候彭博发了这么一个消息,马斯克购买推特后面的银行财团(MS为首),正在考虑把马斯克的贷款给替换了,原来的利息太高。这样做的好处,是可以减少马斯克的负担。这个新闻表面上看上去平平无奇,但是逻辑上却非常不对。银行不就靠着收利息赚钱吗,收的利息越高越好,什么时候突然想到为客户减轻负担,让自己少赚钱?下图是新闻截图。根据这个新闻,马斯克现在每年的利息支出就是$12亿,这个比我之前的估计还多了$2亿。推特在马斯克手上就是个烫手的山芋,可以让世界首富变成世界首负。下面是我之前对推特收购案中的贷款的评论。“马斯克一直对11月初卖股没有评论,也就暗示了他可能还会卖股。除了这些可能要退回的外国资金,马斯克收购中还有$130亿银行资金需要偿还,这是大头。目前美国的利率高企,所以这些贷款的年利息就会高达$10亿,再加上推特本身又是个赔钱的公司,所以马斯克现在拿着推特非常难受。屋漏偏逢连夜雨,广告商现在还纷纷退出推特,马斯克裁码农就能解决问题?应该是把问题越搞越大。”现在回到核心问题,为什么MS要主动帮客户提出减轻利息支出?而且从彭博的新闻来看,MS的态度比马斯克更积极,更想推动给贷款降利息的工作,特别是去置换那部分没有抵押的贷款($30亿)。(The discussions have so far focused on how to replace $3 billion of unsecured debt on which Twitter pays an interest rate of 11.75%)。一切都很反常,银行想为了客户降息,客户却不着急(不然这事儿也用不着曝光,很快双方就应该定了)。我能想到的一个合理解释是这样——马斯克的特斯拉股票质押率非常高,下表是之前的统计。MS和他的关系最好,所以很有可能这些股票的绝大部分都在MS。根据当前股价来看(每股$170,2020年等同于每股$510),他2020年就质押了大约$450亿,考虑到之前的股价更高,实际套现金额说不定更高,这是个非常大的数字。现在特斯拉股价已经回撤了50%,按照规定,MS必须要马斯克质押更多股票或者是让马斯克还钱。但MS接受的特斯拉股票质押可能已经太多,风控部门已经不允许马斯克继续质押股票了(想想当年乐视老板质押的股票),所以只能让马斯克还钱。但是马斯克现在是没钱的,要还钱就只能大量卖股票,而卖股票对于MS来说就是快速死亡,会触发一系列Margin Call。所以MS现在和马斯克绑定到一条船上了,这件事情对于MS非常不好。MS现在只能祈求马斯克自己能够度过难关,特斯拉股价能够挺住,不然风控到了最后肯定会要求清仓。现在唯一能够帮助马斯克的,就是帮他债务负担减轻一点。MS要想办法,把那笔没有抵押的$30亿换成有抵押的$30亿,至少在极端情况下,有些资产可以追溯回来。现在这件事没谈下来,可能就是马斯克不同意用资产去质押贷款,即使利息便宜一些,死猪不怕开水烫的样子。MS麻烦大了。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":678,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}