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Bbloh
2021-04-03
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How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?
Bbloh
2021-04-20
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Bbloh
2021-04-16
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2021-04-13
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","listText":"[财迷] ","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373755017","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":213,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":370800096,"gmtCreate":1618568156115,"gmtModify":1634292034676,"author":{"id":"3576451483053184","authorId":"3576451483053184","name":"Bbloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3242b5b662e707b1a33137bbe4c8494","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"E[开心] ","listText":"E[开心] ","text":"E[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370800096","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":345671439,"gmtCreate":1618314050121,"gmtModify":1634293786632,"author":{"id":"3576451483053184","authorId":"3576451483053184","name":"Bbloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3242b5b662e707b1a33137bbe4c8494","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷] ","listText":"[财迷] ","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345671439","repostId":"2126067559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2126067559","pubTimestamp":1618278385,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2126067559?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-13 09:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Reasons the Coinbase IPO Is a Risky Buy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2126067559","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"While its prospects are good, this cryptocurrency company does not belong in the portfolios of conservative investors.","content":"<p><b>Coinbase</b>, a leading cryptocurrency exchange platform, will make its stock market debut in a direct listing this Wednesday, trading under the ticker COIN. This public debut will be a historic moment for the crypto industry and its early proponents.</p>\n<p>The listing will also come just months after the total market value of all <b>Bitcoin</b> (CRYPTO:BTC) in circulation crossed the $1 trillion mark for the first time. <b>Ethereum </b>(CRYPTO:ETH), the world's second-largest cryptocurrency, is also trading around record highs.</p>\n<p>Obviously, Coinbase is betting that rising demand for cryptocurrencies will make its public offering and its business model a success. Certainly, it's listing at just the right time. But for more conservative investors, Coinbase looks like a very risky bet.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de4e309a22a978f8524b579aba016cb8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"463\"><span>Image source: Getty Images</span></p>\n<h2>An overreliance on trading to drive profits</h2>\n<p>Coinbase stands out among other recent hypergrowth IPOs like <b>Roblox</b> and <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a></b> because it's already in the black. The tech company booked a net profit of $322 million in 2020, against a net loss of $30 million in 2019. Revenue surged by 139%, and operating leverage kicked in -- Coinbase grew revenue faster than its costs, which resulted in expanding margins and an improving bottom line.</p>\n<p>That's all fine and dandy, save for <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> huge caveat. Coinbase generated 86% of its revenue last year from transaction fees -- mainly from cryptocurrency trading. And in 2020, trading volume shot up 142% year over year, producing a 137% rise in transaction fees. But investors should note that 2020 was a particularly great year for cryptocurrencies, during which Bitcoin's price rose fourfold from $7,184 per token to $28,972 per token.</p>\n<p>In other words, booming cryptocurrency prices can boost Coinbase's trading volumes. But the opposite also holds. In 2018, cryptocurrencies crashed -- and Bitcoin prices fell 72% from $13,850 to $3,747. That year, Coinbase's trading volume slid by more than 80%. Over the same period, the number of users making transactions on Coinbase every month fell by 67%.</p>\n<p>In sum, Coinbase's revenue is linked to cryptocurrency trading volume. Should trading activity drop in a big way, Coinbase could wind up back in the red. Though traditional exchanges like <b>CME Group</b> and <b>Intercontinental Exchange</b> are not immune to the volatility of trading activity, the latter two are way more diversified in terms of services and product offerings -- which minimizes the volatility that any single product can cause to the overall financials.</p>\n<h2>Priced for perfection</h2>\n<p>When it comes to Coinbase, there's much to get excited about. It has won the trust of retail and institutional investors alike, who have parked 12% of all cryptocurrency assets on its platform.</p>\n<p>As a leading player in its industry, Coinbase is in a sweet spot. The cryptocurrency economy has explosive growth potential, and if that potential becomes reality, the company can ride the wave while expanding its share of the market.</p>\n<p>But for investors, the chance to profit from these huge potential opportunities won't come cheap. Coinbase's direct listing could value it at $100 billion, or 77 times sales. This isn't too alarming. Recent cloud computing IPO Snowflake now trades at over 100 times sales. But it's still excessive by any measure. For perspective, <b>Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited</b> -- operator of the world's third-biggest stock market -- is valued at $76 billion.</p>\n<p>Investors might try to justify Coinbase's valuation by bringing up its impressive historical growth rates, as well as its exciting prospects. But if it fails to meet its rosy expectations, its valuation could easily collapse. Coinbase may also be dragged along in a tech stock crash -- corrections tend to hit pricey names the hardest.</p>\n<h2>Should investors buy the Coinbase IPO?</h2>\n<p>In the long run, Coinbase looks poised to grow along with the crypto economy. But buying in at such a steep valuation carries obvious risks. Most investors would be well-advised to stay on the sidelines, watch how Coinbase performs, and -- if they are interested -- await a more attractive entry point.</p>\n<p>If you're willing to take the risk of buying Coinbase the day it begins trading, it would be better to initiate with a small position, and add to it over time.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Reasons the Coinbase IPO Is a Risky Buy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Reasons the Coinbase IPO Is a Risky Buy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-13 09:46 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/12/2-reasons-the-coinbase-ipo-is-a-risky-buy/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Coinbase, a leading cryptocurrency exchange platform, will make its stock market debut in a direct listing this Wednesday, trading under the ticker COIN. This public debut will be a historic moment ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/12/2-reasons-the-coinbase-ipo-is-a-risky-buy/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/12/2-reasons-the-coinbase-ipo-is-a-risky-buy/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2126067559","content_text":"Coinbase, a leading cryptocurrency exchange platform, will make its stock market debut in a direct listing this Wednesday, trading under the ticker COIN. This public debut will be a historic moment for the crypto industry and its early proponents.\nThe listing will also come just months after the total market value of all Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) in circulation crossed the $1 trillion mark for the first time. Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH), the world's second-largest cryptocurrency, is also trading around record highs.\nObviously, Coinbase is betting that rising demand for cryptocurrencies will make its public offering and its business model a success. Certainly, it's listing at just the right time. But for more conservative investors, Coinbase looks like a very risky bet.\nImage source: Getty Images\nAn overreliance on trading to drive profits\nCoinbase stands out among other recent hypergrowth IPOs like Roblox and Snowflake because it's already in the black. The tech company booked a net profit of $322 million in 2020, against a net loss of $30 million in 2019. Revenue surged by 139%, and operating leverage kicked in -- Coinbase grew revenue faster than its costs, which resulted in expanding margins and an improving bottom line.\nThat's all fine and dandy, save for one huge caveat. Coinbase generated 86% of its revenue last year from transaction fees -- mainly from cryptocurrency trading. And in 2020, trading volume shot up 142% year over year, producing a 137% rise in transaction fees. But investors should note that 2020 was a particularly great year for cryptocurrencies, during which Bitcoin's price rose fourfold from $7,184 per token to $28,972 per token.\nIn other words, booming cryptocurrency prices can boost Coinbase's trading volumes. But the opposite also holds. In 2018, cryptocurrencies crashed -- and Bitcoin prices fell 72% from $13,850 to $3,747. That year, Coinbase's trading volume slid by more than 80%. Over the same period, the number of users making transactions on Coinbase every month fell by 67%.\nIn sum, Coinbase's revenue is linked to cryptocurrency trading volume. Should trading activity drop in a big way, Coinbase could wind up back in the red. Though traditional exchanges like CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange are not immune to the volatility of trading activity, the latter two are way more diversified in terms of services and product offerings -- which minimizes the volatility that any single product can cause to the overall financials.\nPriced for perfection\nWhen it comes to Coinbase, there's much to get excited about. It has won the trust of retail and institutional investors alike, who have parked 12% of all cryptocurrency assets on its platform.\nAs a leading player in its industry, Coinbase is in a sweet spot. The cryptocurrency economy has explosive growth potential, and if that potential becomes reality, the company can ride the wave while expanding its share of the market.\nBut for investors, the chance to profit from these huge potential opportunities won't come cheap. Coinbase's direct listing could value it at $100 billion, or 77 times sales. This isn't too alarming. Recent cloud computing IPO Snowflake now trades at over 100 times sales. But it's still excessive by any measure. For perspective, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited -- operator of the world's third-biggest stock market -- is valued at $76 billion.\nInvestors might try to justify Coinbase's valuation by bringing up its impressive historical growth rates, as well as its exciting prospects. But if it fails to meet its rosy expectations, its valuation could easily collapse. Coinbase may also be dragged along in a tech stock crash -- corrections tend to hit pricey names the hardest.\nShould investors buy the Coinbase IPO?\nIn the long run, Coinbase looks poised to grow along with the crypto economy. But buying in at such a steep valuation carries obvious risks. Most investors would be well-advised to stay on the sidelines, watch how Coinbase performs, and -- if they are interested -- await a more attractive entry point.\nIf you're willing to take the risk of buying Coinbase the day it begins trading, it would be better to initiate with a small position, and add to it over time.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":340876802,"gmtCreate":1617379864506,"gmtModify":1634521166274,"author":{"id":"3576451483053184","authorId":"3576451483053184","name":"Bbloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3242b5b662e707b1a33137bbe4c8494","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[流泪] ","listText":"[流泪] ","text":"[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340876802","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<blockquote>\n You may not like the answer.\n</blockquote>\n<p>For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p>\n<p>But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p>\n<p>It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p>\n<p><b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p>\n<p>To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p>\n<p>However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p>\n<p>We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p>\n<p><b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p>\n<p>Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p>\n<p>Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p>\n<p>Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p>\n<p><b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p>\n<p>But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p>\n<p>As of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p>\n<p>To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p>\n<p>However, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p>\n<p><b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p>\n<p>To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p>\n<p>While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p>\n<p>The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.</p>\n<p>If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-02 20:22 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":340876802,"gmtCreate":1617379864506,"gmtModify":1634521166274,"author":{"id":"3576451483053184","authorId":"3576451483053184","name":"Bbloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3242b5b662e707b1a33137bbe4c8494","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[流泪] ","listText":"[流泪] ","text":"[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340876802","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<blockquote>\n You may not like the answer.\n</blockquote>\n<p>For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p>\n<p>But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p>\n<p>It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p>\n<p><b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p>\n<p>To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p>\n<p>However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p>\n<p>We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p>\n<p><b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p>\n<p>Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p>\n<p>Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p>\n<p>Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p>\n<p><b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p>\n<p>But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p>\n<p>As of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p>\n<p>To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p>\n<p>However, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p>\n<p><b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p>\n<p>To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p>\n<p>While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p>\n<p>The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.</p>\n<p>If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-02 20:22 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. 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