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2021-12-17

Hodl

Why AMD, Qualcomm, and Skyworks Stocks Crashed

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As of 4 p.m. ET, shares of Adva","content":"<p><b>What happened</b></p>\n<p>It's Thursday, and&nbsp;semiconductor&nbsp;stocks are in a funk. As of 4 p.m. ET, shares of&nbsp;<b>Advanced Micro Devices</b>(NASDAQ:AMD)have already lost 5.37%,&nbsp;<b>Qualcomm</b>(NASDAQ:QCOM)is down 5.88%, and&nbsp;<b>Skyworks Solutions</b>(NASDAQ:SWKS)is taking it particularly hard on the chin -- down 8.47%.</p>\n<p>I blame&nbsp;<b>Apple</b>&nbsp;for all of the above.</p>\n<p><b>So what</b></p>\n<p>Investors in chips stocks today have only a choice between bad short-term news and potentially worse long-term news, I fear. In the short term, the bad news is this:</p>\n<p>iPhone 13 smartphones are in short supply this holiday season, according to a report from an analyst at&nbsp;<b>KeyBanc Capital Markets</b>, relayed byThe Fly. Indeed, demand for the devices has outstripped supply since Thanksgiving. And despite reports that&nbsp;things had been getting better earlier this month&nbsp;as the delta COVID-19 pandemic switched over into an omicron COVID-19 pandemic, KeyBanc analyst John Vinh now observes that \"the majority of stores\" he has surveyed report not having&nbsp;<i>any</i>&nbsp;iPhone 13 Pro or Max phones in stock.</p>\n<p>Granted, he concludes that this news is ultimately only neutral for companies including AMD, Qualcomm, and Skyworks that supply chips for Apple devices -- but neutral isn't good. While suppliers can presumably charge Apple premium prices in a time of constrained chip supply, fewer iPhone sales still logically implies fewer chips being sold to build those Apple products.</p>\n<p><b>Now what</b></p>\n<p>At the same time, you have to figure that, at some point, Apple is going to get upset at its inability to obtain all the chips it wants. This, combined with the company's already-confirmed belief that it can&nbsp;design better chips itself&nbsp;than it can buy from third-party chipmakers, creates&nbsp;a longer-term risk&nbsp;of semiconductor companies losing Apple (and eventually, companies other than Apple) as dependable customers.</p>\n<p>In that regard, we note that Bloomberg is reporting today that Apple has begun hiring engineers skilled in building wireless communication chips, with the aim of \"eventually\" replacing suppliers&nbsp;<b>Broadcom</b>&nbsp;and Skyworks with wireless chips Apple designs in-house.</p>\n<p>Now, you might not think that bad news for Skyworks would necessarily affect companies like AMD and Qualcomm -- and today, Skyworks<i>is</i>in fact faring worse than the others. One reason: A decision by Apple to design its own wireless chips appears to be part of the same story that saw Apple oust&nbsp;<b>Intel</b>&nbsp;as its favored chip supplier&nbsp;last year.</p>\n<p>More and more frequently, it appears that Apple -- and eventually other companies -- may be deciding that it's better to design their chips in-house than buy off the shelf. Long term, that's a threat to all dedicated semiconductor companies.</p>\n<p>And it's why pretty much everyone associated with the chip industry&nbsp;is going down.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why AMD, Qualcomm, and Skyworks Stocks Crashed</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy AMD, Qualcomm, and Skyworks Stocks Crashed\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-17 10:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/16/why-amd-qualcomm-and-skyworks-stocks-just-crashed/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>What happened\nIt's Thursday, and semiconductor stocks are in a funk. As of 4 p.m. ET, shares of Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)have already lost 5.37%, Qualcomm(NASDAQ:QCOM)is down 5.88%, and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/16/why-amd-qualcomm-and-skyworks-stocks-just-crashed/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QCOM":"高通","AMD":"美国超微公司","SWKS":"思佳讯"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/16/why-amd-qualcomm-and-skyworks-stocks-just-crashed/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156042491","content_text":"What happened\nIt's Thursday, and semiconductor stocks are in a funk. As of 4 p.m. ET, shares of Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)have already lost 5.37%, Qualcomm(NASDAQ:QCOM)is down 5.88%, and Skyworks Solutions(NASDAQ:SWKS)is taking it particularly hard on the chin -- down 8.47%.\nI blame Apple for all of the above.\nSo what\nInvestors in chips stocks today have only a choice between bad short-term news and potentially worse long-term news, I fear. In the short term, the bad news is this:\niPhone 13 smartphones are in short supply this holiday season, according to a report from an analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets, relayed byThe Fly. Indeed, demand for the devices has outstripped supply since Thanksgiving. And despite reports that things had been getting better earlier this month as the delta COVID-19 pandemic switched over into an omicron COVID-19 pandemic, KeyBanc analyst John Vinh now observes that \"the majority of stores\" he has surveyed report not having any iPhone 13 Pro or Max phones in stock.\nGranted, he concludes that this news is ultimately only neutral for companies including AMD, Qualcomm, and Skyworks that supply chips for Apple devices -- but neutral isn't good. While suppliers can presumably charge Apple premium prices in a time of constrained chip supply, fewer iPhone sales still logically implies fewer chips being sold to build those Apple products.\nNow what\nAt the same time, you have to figure that, at some point, Apple is going to get upset at its inability to obtain all the chips it wants. This, combined with the company's already-confirmed belief that it can design better chips itself than it can buy from third-party chipmakers, creates a longer-term risk of semiconductor companies losing Apple (and eventually, companies other than Apple) as dependable customers.\nIn that regard, we note that Bloomberg is reporting today that Apple has begun hiring engineers skilled in building wireless communication chips, with the aim of \"eventually\" replacing suppliers Broadcom and Skyworks with wireless chips Apple designs in-house.\nNow, you might not think that bad news for Skyworks would necessarily affect companies like AMD and Qualcomm -- and today, Skyworksisin fact faring worse than the others. One reason: A decision by Apple to design its own wireless chips appears to be part of the same story that saw Apple oust Intel as its favored chip supplier last year.\nMore and more frequently, it appears that Apple -- and eventually other companies -- may be deciding that it's better to design their chips in-house than buy off the shelf. Long term, that's a threat to all dedicated semiconductor companies.\nAnd it's why pretty much everyone associated with the chip industry is going down.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":612,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828363943,"gmtCreate":1633845960425,"gmtModify":1633845960545,"author":{"id":"3576054263007646","authorId":"3576054263007646","name":"JinQuan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576054263007646","authorIdStr":"3576054263007646"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fingers crossed 🤞&nbsp;","listText":"Fingers crossed 🤞&nbsp;","text":"Fingers crossed 🤞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828363943","repostId":"1194780749","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194780749","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633828304,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194780749?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-10 09:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2022 Could Be A Great Year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194780749","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Economies are reaccelerating as the number of Delta cases and death have peaked.We could have a great year in 2022 if our government could get its act together.We have concentrated on the producers that will benefit from a robust global economy and tech companies benefitting from the digitalization boom.Even though we are rapidly putting the delta variant in the rear-view mirror, financial markets are struggling due to a lack of leadership in D.C. We have shortages and supply line issues that ha","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Economies are reaccelerating as the number of Delta cases and death have peaked.</li>\n <li>We could have a great year in 2022 if our government could get its act together.</li>\n <li>We have concentrated on the producers that will benefit from a robust global economy and tech companies benefitting from the digitalization boom.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Even though we are rapidly putting the delta variant in the rear-view mirror, financial markets are struggling due to a lack of leadership in D.C. We have shortages and supply line issues that hamper production and profitability. All of this will pass.</p>\n<p>What is the problem? Our government is dysfunctional, and we need leadership, especially now, to handle the myriad of domestic and foreign issues facing all of us. We will muddle through and finally get a much-needed traditional infrastructure bill and possibly a scaled-down $2 trillion social spending bill along with lower-than-expected punitive tax increases, this year but 2022 could be a great year, not just a very good year, if only we worked together.</p>\n<p>We have not altered our view that S&amp;P earnings could exceed $220/share in 2022 and $235/share in 2023 as operating margins hit nearly 14% in 2023, up from 11.5% in 2019. Why? Corporations have learned to do more with less during the pandemic; shortages and supply line issues will ease, and substantial increases in technology spending will go a long way, offsetting higher labor costs while improving operations/efficiencies on all levels. Powell will be right that higher inflationary pressures will be transitory, but it may take longer to normalize. We will continue to have accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in 2022. Not a bad market scenario, so use corrections as opportunities to add to your positions. So, as I've said before, invest, don't trade.</p>\n<p>Economies are reaccelerating as the number of Delta cases and death have peaked. Domestic cases have declined 23% and deaths 13% over the 14 days and 17% and 14%, respectively, globally. More than 6.43 billion doses have been administered globally across 184 countries at a daily rate of 28.7 million doses per day. In the U.S., 398 million doses have been given so far at an elevated rate of 931,983 doses per day.</p>\n<p>We still see over 75% of the global population vaccinated within six months and herd immunity sooner. Pfizer(NYSE:PFE)filed Thursday with the FDA its vaccine for children ages 5-11, bringing shots for all school-age children closer, which will boost the economy as parents can return to work. We expect that both Pfizer and Merck's(NYSE:MRK)filings with the FDA will be approved well before year-end. All good news!</p>\n<p>The Fed is itching to start tapering, ending its extraordinary monetary support, which is no longer needed as the economy is on firm footing, and it appears that the Delta variant is subsiding. Unfortunately, Powell and the Fed have been called out for oversight over board members' trading. Two governors have already resigned, and we expect one more may leave shortly. Tapering will probably begin before year-end if the next employment report improves from September and be finished by the third quarter of 2022.</p>\n<p>Again, tapering is NOT tightening, and we do not expect the Fed to start hiking the funds' rate until early 2023. The \"real\" funds' rate will be negative for some time which is NOT tightening at all. By the way, we disagree with Elizabeth Warren's criticism of Chairman Powell and hope that he is renominated next year. The bottom line is that the Fed will remain your friend for at least another 18 months. Don't fight the Fed!</p>\n<p>We are so frustrated by what is happening in D.C. It is all about politics, no surprise, and not about doing what is best for this country. Why do we always have to go to the brink before action is taken? That is precisely what happened this week when the Republicans caved and offered a two-month short-term debt limit extension letting the Dems off the hook from going the route of reconciliation. It passed Thursday night. Daily negotiations continue for the massive social infrastructure program. It will be much smaller than initially proposed, closer to $2 trillion rather than $3.5 trillion. We expect the individual and corporate tax increases to be much more reasonable than initially proposed, which is a clear positive for the economy and financial markets.</p>\n<p>The domestic economy is recovering from the Delta variant, which penalized growth during the summer months. The areas hit most over the summer; travel, dining, and leisure are coming back strongly, as evidenced by the recovery in the high-frequency data.</p>\n<p>Other recent data points include: initial jobless claims fell more than expected to 326,000; the index of consumer sentiment rose in September to 72.9, current economic conditions increased to 80.1, and consumer expectations rose to 68.1; the September Manufacturing PMI increased to 61.1, new orders to 66.7, employment up to 50.1, supplier deliveries to 73.4 and prices index increased to 81.2; the services index grew for the 15th month hitting 60.1, new orders at 63.2, employment at 53.7 and supplier deliveries at 69.6; new orders for manufactured goods increased 1.2% while shipments rose 0.1% and unfilled orders increased 1.0%; and the trade deficit widened to $73.3 billion as imports increased more rapidly than exports due to the strength of the domestic economy.</p>\n<p>Growth and profitability would be even more robust if not for shortages and supply line issues. But that will turn around in 2022 and be a big plus. The September employment data was disappointing with only 194,000 jobs created. The private sector did better adding 317,000 jobs while the public sector lost 123,000 jobs. Interestingly the unemployment rate fell to 4.8% which is the Fed's year-end target as the participation rate declined to 61.6. Hourly earnings rose 0.6% and are up 4.3% in the year through August. The Fed will most likely wait to see the next employment report before beginning tapering.</p>\n<p>The Eurozone economy has finally exceeded pre-covid levels, with most of the 20 indices that we monitor accelerating in recent weeks as cases/deaths have declined meaningfully. Shortages and supply line issues have hampered production while increasing inflationary pressures and won't ease until mid-2022. Energy costs are a real problem and may penalize growth next year. Unfortunately, OPEC opted against a big output boost lifting production by only 400,000 barrels/day, which will not be enough to limit further price increases, especially if we have a cold winter. And natural gas prices have gone through the roof, which will crimp consumer spending and hurt corporate operating margins.</p>\n<p>The global economy is improving as the number of covid cases, and deaths have peaked. Growth would even be more robust if not for shortages and supply line issues, but that will reverse as we move through 2022.</p>\n<p>Investment Conclusions</p>\n<p>Thursday, there was a massive sigh of relief when Congress agreed to extend the debt limit two months, ending the stalemate. We expect the Dems to coalesce around a roughly $2 trillion social infrastructure bill that will permit passage of the much-needed $1 trillion traditional infrastructure bill. What is a government? Fiscal policy will remain stimulative for years to come.</p>\n<p>Then we have a monetary policy. We expect the Fed to remain accommodative for a few more years. We do expect tapering to begin before year-end if the November employment report improves from the last one, but we do&nbsp;<b>not</b>&nbsp;see a rate hike until 2023, and even then, the \"real\" funds' rate will be negative, which is not restrictive at all.</p>\n<p>Shortages and supply line issues have played havoc on production and profitability for many industries/companies around the world in 2021, but this will reverse as we move through 2022, creating opportunities for investors willing to look over the valley.</p>\n<p>The bottom line is that we could have a great year in 2022 if our government could get its act together. The key remains keeping the coronavirus out of the picture, so we must vaccinate all the unvaccinated.</p>\n<p>While we have not seen many changes in our portfolio over the last few months, we have concentrated on the producers that will benefit from a robust global economy and tech companies benefitting from the digitalization boom. We recently added some financials and energy companies as we expect the yield curve to steepen more than previously anticipated. Higher energy prices are immediately ahead as demand outstrips supply. Next year, the big story will be the significant increase in dividends and buybacks well above the historical trend.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2022 Could Be A Great Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2022 Could Be A Great Year\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-10 09:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459137-2022-could-be-a-great-year><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nEconomies are reaccelerating as the number of Delta cases and death have peaked.\nWe could have a great year in 2022 if our government could get its act together.\nWe have concentrated on the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459137-2022-could-be-a-great-year\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459137-2022-could-be-a-great-year","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1194780749","content_text":"Summary\n\nEconomies are reaccelerating as the number of Delta cases and death have peaked.\nWe could have a great year in 2022 if our government could get its act together.\nWe have concentrated on the producers that will benefit from a robust global economy and tech companies benefitting from the digitalization boom.\n\nEven though we are rapidly putting the delta variant in the rear-view mirror, financial markets are struggling due to a lack of leadership in D.C. We have shortages and supply line issues that hamper production and profitability. All of this will pass.\nWhat is the problem? Our government is dysfunctional, and we need leadership, especially now, to handle the myriad of domestic and foreign issues facing all of us. We will muddle through and finally get a much-needed traditional infrastructure bill and possibly a scaled-down $2 trillion social spending bill along with lower-than-expected punitive tax increases, this year but 2022 could be a great year, not just a very good year, if only we worked together.\nWe have not altered our view that S&P earnings could exceed $220/share in 2022 and $235/share in 2023 as operating margins hit nearly 14% in 2023, up from 11.5% in 2019. Why? Corporations have learned to do more with less during the pandemic; shortages and supply line issues will ease, and substantial increases in technology spending will go a long way, offsetting higher labor costs while improving operations/efficiencies on all levels. Powell will be right that higher inflationary pressures will be transitory, but it may take longer to normalize. We will continue to have accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in 2022. Not a bad market scenario, so use corrections as opportunities to add to your positions. So, as I've said before, invest, don't trade.\nEconomies are reaccelerating as the number of Delta cases and death have peaked. Domestic cases have declined 23% and deaths 13% over the 14 days and 17% and 14%, respectively, globally. More than 6.43 billion doses have been administered globally across 184 countries at a daily rate of 28.7 million doses per day. In the U.S., 398 million doses have been given so far at an elevated rate of 931,983 doses per day.\nWe still see over 75% of the global population vaccinated within six months and herd immunity sooner. Pfizer(NYSE:PFE)filed Thursday with the FDA its vaccine for children ages 5-11, bringing shots for all school-age children closer, which will boost the economy as parents can return to work. We expect that both Pfizer and Merck's(NYSE:MRK)filings with the FDA will be approved well before year-end. All good news!\nThe Fed is itching to start tapering, ending its extraordinary monetary support, which is no longer needed as the economy is on firm footing, and it appears that the Delta variant is subsiding. Unfortunately, Powell and the Fed have been called out for oversight over board members' trading. Two governors have already resigned, and we expect one more may leave shortly. Tapering will probably begin before year-end if the next employment report improves from September and be finished by the third quarter of 2022.\nAgain, tapering is NOT tightening, and we do not expect the Fed to start hiking the funds' rate until early 2023. The \"real\" funds' rate will be negative for some time which is NOT tightening at all. By the way, we disagree with Elizabeth Warren's criticism of Chairman Powell and hope that he is renominated next year. The bottom line is that the Fed will remain your friend for at least another 18 months. Don't fight the Fed!\nWe are so frustrated by what is happening in D.C. It is all about politics, no surprise, and not about doing what is best for this country. Why do we always have to go to the brink before action is taken? That is precisely what happened this week when the Republicans caved and offered a two-month short-term debt limit extension letting the Dems off the hook from going the route of reconciliation. It passed Thursday night. Daily negotiations continue for the massive social infrastructure program. It will be much smaller than initially proposed, closer to $2 trillion rather than $3.5 trillion. We expect the individual and corporate tax increases to be much more reasonable than initially proposed, which is a clear positive for the economy and financial markets.\nThe domestic economy is recovering from the Delta variant, which penalized growth during the summer months. The areas hit most over the summer; travel, dining, and leisure are coming back strongly, as evidenced by the recovery in the high-frequency data.\nOther recent data points include: initial jobless claims fell more than expected to 326,000; the index of consumer sentiment rose in September to 72.9, current economic conditions increased to 80.1, and consumer expectations rose to 68.1; the September Manufacturing PMI increased to 61.1, new orders to 66.7, employment up to 50.1, supplier deliveries to 73.4 and prices index increased to 81.2; the services index grew for the 15th month hitting 60.1, new orders at 63.2, employment at 53.7 and supplier deliveries at 69.6; new orders for manufactured goods increased 1.2% while shipments rose 0.1% and unfilled orders increased 1.0%; and the trade deficit widened to $73.3 billion as imports increased more rapidly than exports due to the strength of the domestic economy.\nGrowth and profitability would be even more robust if not for shortages and supply line issues. But that will turn around in 2022 and be a big plus. The September employment data was disappointing with only 194,000 jobs created. The private sector did better adding 317,000 jobs while the public sector lost 123,000 jobs. Interestingly the unemployment rate fell to 4.8% which is the Fed's year-end target as the participation rate declined to 61.6. Hourly earnings rose 0.6% and are up 4.3% in the year through August. The Fed will most likely wait to see the next employment report before beginning tapering.\nThe Eurozone economy has finally exceeded pre-covid levels, with most of the 20 indices that we monitor accelerating in recent weeks as cases/deaths have declined meaningfully. Shortages and supply line issues have hampered production while increasing inflationary pressures and won't ease until mid-2022. Energy costs are a real problem and may penalize growth next year. Unfortunately, OPEC opted against a big output boost lifting production by only 400,000 barrels/day, which will not be enough to limit further price increases, especially if we have a cold winter. And natural gas prices have gone through the roof, which will crimp consumer spending and hurt corporate operating margins.\nThe global economy is improving as the number of covid cases, and deaths have peaked. Growth would even be more robust if not for shortages and supply line issues, but that will reverse as we move through 2022.\nInvestment Conclusions\nThursday, there was a massive sigh of relief when Congress agreed to extend the debt limit two months, ending the stalemate. We expect the Dems to coalesce around a roughly $2 trillion social infrastructure bill that will permit passage of the much-needed $1 trillion traditional infrastructure bill. What is a government? Fiscal policy will remain stimulative for years to come.\nThen we have a monetary policy. We expect the Fed to remain accommodative for a few more years. We do expect tapering to begin before year-end if the November employment report improves from the last one, but we do not see a rate hike until 2023, and even then, the \"real\" funds' rate will be negative, which is not restrictive at all.\nShortages and supply line issues have played havoc on production and profitability for many industries/companies around the world in 2021, but this will reverse as we move through 2022, creating opportunities for investors willing to look over the valley.\nThe bottom line is that we could have a great year in 2022 if our government could get its act together. The key remains keeping the coronavirus out of the picture, so we must vaccinate all the unvaccinated.\nWhile we have not seen many changes in our portfolio over the last few months, we have concentrated on the producers that will benefit from a robust global economy and tech companies benefitting from the digitalization boom. We recently added some financials and energy companies as we expect the yield curve to steepen more than previously anticipated. Higher energy prices are immediately ahead as demand outstrips supply. Next year, the big story will be the significant increase in dividends and buybacks well above the historical trend.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":860976304,"gmtCreate":1632128321008,"gmtModify":1632802666380,"author":{"id":"3576054263007646","authorId":"3576054263007646","name":"JinQuan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576054263007646","authorIdStr":"3576054263007646"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alright","listText":"Alright","text":"Alright","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860976304","repostId":"2168505195","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2168505195","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1632123300,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2168505195?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-20 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"4 Reasons Not To Worry About a Stock Market Crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2168505195","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"If you want to fare well during big pullbacks, it's best to have a plan in place in advance, and understand what's going on both in the market and in your head.","content":"<p>Will the market crash, or won't it? It's a question many investors are asking themselves now that the market's hinting that it may not be as resilient as it has been since March of last year.</p>\n<p>The <b>S&amp;P 500</b> (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) is only down a little more than 2% from its early September highs, but things feel different about this lull. Not only is this usually a tough time of year for the market, but a couple of indices (and some individual stocks) are starting to trade under key levels that technical analysts have been eying for a while. When those lines in the sand are crossed, they don't change long-term fundamentals, but those events can certainly signal -- and even start -- steep sell-offs.</p>\n<p>The thing is, even if a major correction is in the cards, don't sweat it. Here are four specific reasons why you don't need to panic.</p>\n<p><b>1. Corrections and bear markets happen, but they've never been permanent in the U.S.</b></p>\n<p>Just since the rebound from 2008's subprime mortgage meltdown and subsequent bear market, the S&amp;P 500 has fallen by at least 10% (from high to low) 11 different times. The index has also tumbled by more than 20% from peak to trough twice during that time frame -- bear markets in their own right by the most common definition of what constitutes <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>. That's more or less the same pace and rate of corrections the market experienced prior to 2008, going back nearly 100 years to the crash of 1929.</p>\n<p>The number of these big declines that didn't eventually get wiped away with rebounds back to pre-crash peaks and beyond? Zero. Nada. Zilch. Some of Wall Street's plunges have taken longer than others to unwind, but thus far, every single one has been followed eventually by a run-up to new record highs.</p>\n<p>For better or worse, corrections are the market's way of reassessing what investors are willing to pay for stocks relative to their risks. The underlying drivers of economic growth have never really gone away though, and the ability to benefit from that growth is ultimately what stock investments are meant to offer investors.</p>\n<p><b>2. Crashes are impossible to predict accurately anyway</b></p>\n<p>There's a famous quote from economist Paul Samuelson: \"The stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions.\"</p>\n<p>That quip has since become an overused cliche, but it's informative all the same. Investors tend to anticipate a great number of negative situations that never come to pass, missing out on opportunities as a result.</p>\n<p>That's not to suggest crashes and recessions don't happen. The fact is, however, we never really know the true condition of the economy at any specific time until well after the fact when the indicative data is published, at which point, it doesn't really help with making investing decisions anymore. Guessing about economic conditions and short-term directions is a game best left unplayed. Staying invested in stocks even when things feel scary is statistically the better bet.</p>\n<p><b>3. Stress causes you to make bad decisions</b></p>\n<p>Not only is predicting pullbacks difficult to do with any degree of accuracy, but the stress associated with trying to perfectly time your entries and exits into stocks can cause you to make ill-advised decisions.</p>\n<p>There's a science-based explanation of why this is so. A 2017 study performed by MIT researchers determined that chronic stress explicitly leads people to make higher-risk decisions, by over-activating the neurons in your medial prefrontal cortex. This effectively blurs the mental lines that divide good choices from bad choices.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/564620c11bfe4c4798ae44fcf0345747\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>\n<p>In a similar but simpler vein, consider the fight-or-flight dichotomy we all face when put into speed-sensitive, stressful, life-or-death situations (and financial ones, too).</p>\n<p>Your brain is actually doing something quite clever in these instances (from an evolutionary perspective), mostly to give your body its best chance of survival. Namely, it's limiting your focus to your two best accessible options given the circumstances. One them is fleeing via the safest route, and the other is fighting your threat head-on in a way that allows you to see everything you can about the danger. Your brain deliberately doesn't serve up more nuanced alternatives when you're feeling pressured, as simplicity translates into vital decision-making speed. For investors though, it's often one of the nuanced, in-between options -- like selling just some of your stocks -- that would be the wisest choice.</p>\n<p>So, take a breath, take a step back, and remember that choosing not to do anything at all is a viable choice. You just have to make that decision in advance and tell yourself to stick with it even when the market is plunging.</p>\n<p><b>4. Corrections are buying opportunities</b></p>\n<p>Finally, investors should keep in mind that pullbacks are buying opportunities for stocks that were previously too expensive to step into.</p>\n<p>Holding on to that idea is easier said than done. Jumping into new stocks while they're falling feels about the same as trying to catch a falling knife ... dangerous (not to mention stressful). Just keep reason No. 1 in mind though. Historically, U.S. stock market corrections have eventually stopped and reversed. Most of them stopped and reversed sooner than later.</p>\n<p>And if you're still struggling to view big dips as buying opportunities, here's one last tip that should help: Make your \"buy\" list beforehand. Pick the stocks you want to purchase and the top prices you're willing to pay for them before any marketwide correction. That way, once things start to fall apart, you'll have a plan in place that was crafted before you were being swayed by the emotions that swell up when the market is crashing. That's half the battle.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Reasons Not To Worry About a Stock Market Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Reasons Not To Worry About a Stock Market Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-20 15:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/19/4-reasons-not-to-worry-about-a-stock-market-crash/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Will the market crash, or won't it? It's a question many investors are asking themselves now that the market's hinting that it may not be as resilient as it has been since March of last year.\nThe S&P ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/19/4-reasons-not-to-worry-about-a-stock-market-crash/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/19/4-reasons-not-to-worry-about-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2168505195","content_text":"Will the market crash, or won't it? It's a question many investors are asking themselves now that the market's hinting that it may not be as resilient as it has been since March of last year.\nThe S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) is only down a little more than 2% from its early September highs, but things feel different about this lull. Not only is this usually a tough time of year for the market, but a couple of indices (and some individual stocks) are starting to trade under key levels that technical analysts have been eying for a while. When those lines in the sand are crossed, they don't change long-term fundamentals, but those events can certainly signal -- and even start -- steep sell-offs.\nThe thing is, even if a major correction is in the cards, don't sweat it. Here are four specific reasons why you don't need to panic.\n1. Corrections and bear markets happen, but they've never been permanent in the U.S.\nJust since the rebound from 2008's subprime mortgage meltdown and subsequent bear market, the S&P 500 has fallen by at least 10% (from high to low) 11 different times. The index has also tumbled by more than 20% from peak to trough twice during that time frame -- bear markets in their own right by the most common definition of what constitutes one. That's more or less the same pace and rate of corrections the market experienced prior to 2008, going back nearly 100 years to the crash of 1929.\nThe number of these big declines that didn't eventually get wiped away with rebounds back to pre-crash peaks and beyond? Zero. Nada. Zilch. Some of Wall Street's plunges have taken longer than others to unwind, but thus far, every single one has been followed eventually by a run-up to new record highs.\nFor better or worse, corrections are the market's way of reassessing what investors are willing to pay for stocks relative to their risks. The underlying drivers of economic growth have never really gone away though, and the ability to benefit from that growth is ultimately what stock investments are meant to offer investors.\n2. Crashes are impossible to predict accurately anyway\nThere's a famous quote from economist Paul Samuelson: \"The stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions.\"\nThat quip has since become an overused cliche, but it's informative all the same. Investors tend to anticipate a great number of negative situations that never come to pass, missing out on opportunities as a result.\nThat's not to suggest crashes and recessions don't happen. The fact is, however, we never really know the true condition of the economy at any specific time until well after the fact when the indicative data is published, at which point, it doesn't really help with making investing decisions anymore. Guessing about economic conditions and short-term directions is a game best left unplayed. Staying invested in stocks even when things feel scary is statistically the better bet.\n3. Stress causes you to make bad decisions\nNot only is predicting pullbacks difficult to do with any degree of accuracy, but the stress associated with trying to perfectly time your entries and exits into stocks can cause you to make ill-advised decisions.\nThere's a science-based explanation of why this is so. A 2017 study performed by MIT researchers determined that chronic stress explicitly leads people to make higher-risk decisions, by over-activating the neurons in your medial prefrontal cortex. This effectively blurs the mental lines that divide good choices from bad choices.\n\nImage source: Getty Images.\nIn a similar but simpler vein, consider the fight-or-flight dichotomy we all face when put into speed-sensitive, stressful, life-or-death situations (and financial ones, too).\nYour brain is actually doing something quite clever in these instances (from an evolutionary perspective), mostly to give your body its best chance of survival. Namely, it's limiting your focus to your two best accessible options given the circumstances. One them is fleeing via the safest route, and the other is fighting your threat head-on in a way that allows you to see everything you can about the danger. Your brain deliberately doesn't serve up more nuanced alternatives when you're feeling pressured, as simplicity translates into vital decision-making speed. For investors though, it's often one of the nuanced, in-between options -- like selling just some of your stocks -- that would be the wisest choice.\nSo, take a breath, take a step back, and remember that choosing not to do anything at all is a viable choice. You just have to make that decision in advance and tell yourself to stick with it even when the market is plunging.\n4. Corrections are buying opportunities\nFinally, investors should keep in mind that pullbacks are buying opportunities for stocks that were previously too expensive to step into.\nHolding on to that idea is easier said than done. Jumping into new stocks while they're falling feels about the same as trying to catch a falling knife ... dangerous (not to mention stressful). Just keep reason No. 1 in mind though. Historically, U.S. stock market corrections have eventually stopped and reversed. Most of them stopped and reversed sooner than later.\nAnd if you're still struggling to view big dips as buying opportunities, here's one last tip that should help: Make your \"buy\" list beforehand. Pick the stocks you want to purchase and the top prices you're willing to pay for them before any marketwide correction. That way, once things start to fall apart, you'll have a plan in place that was crafted before you were being swayed by the emotions that swell up when the market is crashing. That's half the battle.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128794674,"gmtCreate":1624530668898,"gmtModify":1631891859412,"author":{"id":"3576054263007646","authorId":"3576054263007646","name":"JinQuan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576054263007646","authorIdStr":"3576054263007646"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting&nbsp;","listText":"Interesting&nbsp;","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128794674","repostId":"1169475137","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169475137","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624527669,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169475137?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 17:41","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"China Boosts Short-Term Cash Injection to Ease Liquidity Worries","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169475137","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"PBOC injects 30 billion yuan with reverse repurchase contracts.\nMove ends Beijing’s practice of addi","content":"<ul>\n <li>PBOC injects 30 billion yuan with reverse repurchase contracts.</li>\n <li>Move ends Beijing’s practice of adding 10 billion yuan per day.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>China’s central bank increased its short-term cash injection for the first time since March as it moved to soothe market concerns about liquidity conditions ahead of the quarter-end.</p>\n<p>The injection of 30 billion yuan ($4.6 billion) marked an end to the People’s Bank of China’s practice of adding 10 billion yuan each trading day for the past three months. The move bodes well for liquidity prospects in the second half, as some 4.15 trillion yuan of medium-term policy loans will mature by December.</p>\n<p>“The market now believes that they know the PBOC’s cards -- it will keep liquidity reasonable for the remainder of the year,” said Wan Kelin, an analyst at Topsperity Securities. “Even though there may be some fluctuations throughout that course, the theme is the same.”</p>\n<p>China’s overnight borrowing costs posted the largest one-day decline in almost three months as PBOC’s injection eased money-market jitters fueled by quarter-end regulatory checks on banks and the issuance oflocal governmentbonds. The move also suggested that policy makers are matching action with rhetoric after a central-backed editorial recently criticized what it said are“baseless”predictions about a tightening in liquidity.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5e6902efd21f74ed3019ee6fb35abc4\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"343\"></p>\n<p>The overnight repurchase rate, a gauge of interbank funding costs, dropped 35 basis points to 1.83%, the largest one-day decline since April 2. The rate has traded in a 50-basis point range this month. The most actively-traded contract of one-year debt dropped four basis points to 2.39%. China’s benchmark equity CSI 300 Index rose 0.2%.</p>\n<p>Fears of a government bond rout have grown of late, with regional authorities expected to sell some 660 billion yuan of debt this month in a move that could drain interbank liquidity, according to Citic Securities Co. Chinese banks may also become less willing to lend toward the end of June as they prepare for regular liquidity checks by the authorities, reducing cash levels in the system which could be used to buy bonds.</p>\n<p>Investors will be watching to see if the central bank injects more cash into the system in the coming months with a swathe of loans set to fall due by December. The maturity of medium-term policy loans in the second half will be more than three times the size seen in the first six months, data compiled by Bloomberg shows.</p>\n<p>Short-term funding costs were not excessively high before the operation, and banks were willing to lend out overnight cash after the PBOC injected liquidity, according to a trader. Seven-day funding remains expensive as it covers the quarter-end period, said the trader, who asked not to be named as he’s not allowed to comment on the rates market publicly.</p>\n<p>For Becky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Plc, the injection could be aimed at keeping markets stable ahead of nationwide celebrations for the Chinese Communist Party’s 100-year anniversary on July 1.</p>\n<p>“It’s more of a pre-cautionary measure to make sure there’s no liquidity stress in the coming half year-end, even when interbank liquidity conditions aren’t tight,” Liu said. “The PBOC will be proactively managing interbank liquidity conditions to meet the policy stance of being ‘reasonably accommodative.’”</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China Boosts Short-Term Cash Injection to Ease Liquidity Worries</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina Boosts Short-Term Cash Injection to Ease Liquidity Worries\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 17:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-24/china-lifts-short-term-cash-injection-for-first-time-since-march?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>PBOC injects 30 billion yuan with reverse repurchase contracts.\nMove ends Beijing’s practice of adding 10 billion yuan per day.\n\nChina’s central bank increased its short-term cash injection for the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-24/china-lifts-short-term-cash-injection-for-first-time-since-march?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-24/china-lifts-short-term-cash-injection-for-first-time-since-march?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169475137","content_text":"PBOC injects 30 billion yuan with reverse repurchase contracts.\nMove ends Beijing’s practice of adding 10 billion yuan per day.\n\nChina’s central bank increased its short-term cash injection for the first time since March as it moved to soothe market concerns about liquidity conditions ahead of the quarter-end.\nThe injection of 30 billion yuan ($4.6 billion) marked an end to the People’s Bank of China’s practice of adding 10 billion yuan each trading day for the past three months. The move bodes well for liquidity prospects in the second half, as some 4.15 trillion yuan of medium-term policy loans will mature by December.\n“The market now believes that they know the PBOC’s cards -- it will keep liquidity reasonable for the remainder of the year,” said Wan Kelin, an analyst at Topsperity Securities. “Even though there may be some fluctuations throughout that course, the theme is the same.”\nChina’s overnight borrowing costs posted the largest one-day decline in almost three months as PBOC’s injection eased money-market jitters fueled by quarter-end regulatory checks on banks and the issuance oflocal governmentbonds. The move also suggested that policy makers are matching action with rhetoric after a central-backed editorial recently criticized what it said are“baseless”predictions about a tightening in liquidity.\n\nThe overnight repurchase rate, a gauge of interbank funding costs, dropped 35 basis points to 1.83%, the largest one-day decline since April 2. The rate has traded in a 50-basis point range this month. The most actively-traded contract of one-year debt dropped four basis points to 2.39%. China’s benchmark equity CSI 300 Index rose 0.2%.\nFears of a government bond rout have grown of late, with regional authorities expected to sell some 660 billion yuan of debt this month in a move that could drain interbank liquidity, according to Citic Securities Co. Chinese banks may also become less willing to lend toward the end of June as they prepare for regular liquidity checks by the authorities, reducing cash levels in the system which could be used to buy bonds.\nInvestors will be watching to see if the central bank injects more cash into the system in the coming months with a swathe of loans set to fall due by December. The maturity of medium-term policy loans in the second half will be more than three times the size seen in the first six months, data compiled by Bloomberg shows.\nShort-term funding costs were not excessively high before the operation, and banks were willing to lend out overnight cash after the PBOC injected liquidity, according to a trader. Seven-day funding remains expensive as it covers the quarter-end period, said the trader, who asked not to be named as he’s not allowed to comment on the rates market publicly.\nFor Becky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Plc, the injection could be aimed at keeping markets stable ahead of nationwide celebrations for the Chinese Communist Party’s 100-year anniversary on July 1.\n“It’s more of a pre-cautionary measure to make sure there’s no liquidity stress in the coming half year-end, even when interbank liquidity conditions aren’t tight,” Liu said. “The PBOC will be proactively managing interbank liquidity conditions to meet the policy stance of being ‘reasonably accommodative.’”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362995024,"gmtCreate":1614583916268,"gmtModify":1703478462048,"author":{"id":"3576054263007646","authorId":"3576054263007646","name":"JinQuan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576054263007646","authorIdStr":"3576054263007646"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😯","listText":"😯","text":"😯","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362995024","repostId":"1155083909","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155083909","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614581292,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155083909?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-01 14:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop, Dogecoin Rallies Fueled By Social Media Bots: Cybersecurity Firm","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155083909","media":"Benzinga","summary":"GameStop Corp and other so-called meme stocks may have been given the boost on major social media pl","content":"<p><b>GameStop Corp</b>&nbsp;and other so-called meme stocks may have been given the boost on major social media platforms by bots, according to PiiQ Media, a Massachusetts-based cybersecurity company, ReutersxSunday.</p>\n<p><b>What Happened:</b>&nbsp;Reuters noted&nbsp;— based on the bot revelation&nbsp;—&nbsp; that Reddit fueled frenzy in such stocks may have been the handiwork of “organized economic or foreign actors.”</p>\n<p>PiiQ Media analysis spanned<b>Twitter Inc</b>TWTR 2.98%,<b>Facebook Inc</b>FB 1.15%and<b>Alphabet Inc</b>GOOG 0.27%GOOGL 0.3%run social media platforms including Instagram and YouTube.</p>\n<p>The analysts at the security company found bots used the platforms to push GameStop and other meme stocks but there is no clarity on how much influence they exerted, as per Reuters.</p>\n<p>“We saw clear patterns of artificial behavior across the other four social media platforms,” said Aaron Barr, Chief Technology Officer of PiiQ.</p>\n<p>“When you think of organic content, it’s variable in the day, variable day-to-day. It doesn’t have the exact same pattern every day for a month.”</p>\n<p><b>Why It Matters:</b>&nbsp;PiiQ estimates tens of thousands of bot accounts were involved in the frenzy, which also extended to<b>Dogecoin</b>(CRYPTO: DOGE), according to Reuters.</p>\n<p>The firm did not analyze Reddit data but expects to see a similar pattern on the website.</p>\n<p>Last month, Reddit CEO Steve Huffman told Congress in a hearing that bots, foreign agents, or other bad actors hadnot meaningfully infiltratedthe r/WallStreetBets community that led the frenzy in GameStop,<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc</b>AMC 3.32%,<b>Nokia Oyj</b>NOK 2.84%and others.</p>\n<p>A retail trader on that Reddit forum, with the user name “Deep F---ing Value,” told Congress in his published testimony thathe liked the stockand that the market was “oblivious to GameStop’s unique opportunity within the gaming industry.”</p>\n<p><b>Price Action:</b>&nbsp;GameStop shares closed nearly 6.4% lower at $101.74 on Friday and fell 2.2% in the after-hours trading to $99.50. DOGE traded 0.36% higher at $0.049 at press time.</p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop, Dogecoin Rallies Fueled By Social Media Bots: Cybersecurity Firm</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop, Dogecoin Rallies Fueled By Social Media Bots: Cybersecurity Firm\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-01 14:48 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/03/19904554/gamestop-dogecoin-rallies-fueled-by-social-media-bots-cybersecurity-firm><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>GameStop Corp and other so-called meme stocks may have been given the boost on major social media platforms by bots, according to PiiQ Media, a Massachusetts-based cybersecurity company, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/03/19904554/gamestop-dogecoin-rallies-fueled-by-social-media-bots-cybersecurity-firm\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/03/19904554/gamestop-dogecoin-rallies-fueled-by-social-media-bots-cybersecurity-firm","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155083909","content_text":"GameStop Corp and other so-called meme stocks may have been given the boost on major social media platforms by bots, according to PiiQ Media, a Massachusetts-based cybersecurity company, ReutersxSunday.\nWhat Happened: Reuters noted — based on the bot revelation —  that Reddit fueled frenzy in such stocks may have been the handiwork of “organized economic or foreign actors.”\nPiiQ Media analysis spannedTwitter IncTWTR 2.98%,Facebook IncFB 1.15%andAlphabet IncGOOG 0.27%GOOGL 0.3%run social media platforms including Instagram and YouTube.\nThe analysts at the security company found bots used the platforms to push GameStop and other meme stocks but there is no clarity on how much influence they exerted, as per Reuters.\n“We saw clear patterns of artificial behavior across the other four social media platforms,” said Aaron Barr, Chief Technology Officer of PiiQ.\n“When you think of organic content, it’s variable in the day, variable day-to-day. It doesn’t have the exact same pattern every day for a month.”\nWhy It Matters: PiiQ estimates tens of thousands of bot accounts were involved in the frenzy, which also extended toDogecoin(CRYPTO: DOGE), according to Reuters.\nThe firm did not analyze Reddit data but expects to see a similar pattern on the website.\nLast month, Reddit CEO Steve Huffman told Congress in a hearing that bots, foreign agents, or other bad actors hadnot meaningfully infiltratedthe r/WallStreetBets community that led the frenzy in GameStop,AMC Entertainment Holdings IncAMC 3.32%,Nokia OyjNOK 2.84%and others.\nA retail trader on that Reddit forum, with the user name “Deep F---ing Value,” told Congress in his published testimony thathe liked the stockand that the market was “oblivious to GameStop’s unique opportunity within the gaming industry.”\nPrice Action: GameStop shares closed nearly 6.4% lower at $101.74 on Friday and fell 2.2% in the after-hours trading to $99.50. DOGE traded 0.36% higher at $0.049 at press time.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":324,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":828363943,"gmtCreate":1633845960425,"gmtModify":1633845960545,"author":{"id":"3576054263007646","authorId":"3576054263007646","name":"JinQuan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576054263007646","idStr":"3576054263007646"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fingers crossed 🤞&nbsp;","listText":"Fingers crossed 🤞&nbsp;","text":"Fingers crossed 🤞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828363943","repostId":"1194780749","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194780749","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633828304,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194780749?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-10 09:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2022 Could Be A Great Year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194780749","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Economies are reaccelerating as the number of Delta cases and death have peaked.We could have a great year in 2022 if our government could get its act together.We have concentrated on the producers that will benefit from a robust global economy and tech companies benefitting from the digitalization boom.Even though we are rapidly putting the delta variant in the rear-view mirror, financial markets are struggling due to a lack of leadership in D.C. We have shortages and supply line issues that ha","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Economies are reaccelerating as the number of Delta cases and death have peaked.</li>\n <li>We could have a great year in 2022 if our government could get its act together.</li>\n <li>We have concentrated on the producers that will benefit from a robust global economy and tech companies benefitting from the digitalization boom.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Even though we are rapidly putting the delta variant in the rear-view mirror, financial markets are struggling due to a lack of leadership in D.C. We have shortages and supply line issues that hamper production and profitability. All of this will pass.</p>\n<p>What is the problem? Our government is dysfunctional, and we need leadership, especially now, to handle the myriad of domestic and foreign issues facing all of us. We will muddle through and finally get a much-needed traditional infrastructure bill and possibly a scaled-down $2 trillion social spending bill along with lower-than-expected punitive tax increases, this year but 2022 could be a great year, not just a very good year, if only we worked together.</p>\n<p>We have not altered our view that S&amp;P earnings could exceed $220/share in 2022 and $235/share in 2023 as operating margins hit nearly 14% in 2023, up from 11.5% in 2019. Why? Corporations have learned to do more with less during the pandemic; shortages and supply line issues will ease, and substantial increases in technology spending will go a long way, offsetting higher labor costs while improving operations/efficiencies on all levels. Powell will be right that higher inflationary pressures will be transitory, but it may take longer to normalize. We will continue to have accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in 2022. Not a bad market scenario, so use corrections as opportunities to add to your positions. So, as I've said before, invest, don't trade.</p>\n<p>Economies are reaccelerating as the number of Delta cases and death have peaked. Domestic cases have declined 23% and deaths 13% over the 14 days and 17% and 14%, respectively, globally. More than 6.43 billion doses have been administered globally across 184 countries at a daily rate of 28.7 million doses per day. In the U.S., 398 million doses have been given so far at an elevated rate of 931,983 doses per day.</p>\n<p>We still see over 75% of the global population vaccinated within six months and herd immunity sooner. Pfizer(NYSE:PFE)filed Thursday with the FDA its vaccine for children ages 5-11, bringing shots for all school-age children closer, which will boost the economy as parents can return to work. We expect that both Pfizer and Merck's(NYSE:MRK)filings with the FDA will be approved well before year-end. All good news!</p>\n<p>The Fed is itching to start tapering, ending its extraordinary monetary support, which is no longer needed as the economy is on firm footing, and it appears that the Delta variant is subsiding. Unfortunately, Powell and the Fed have been called out for oversight over board members' trading. Two governors have already resigned, and we expect one more may leave shortly. Tapering will probably begin before year-end if the next employment report improves from September and be finished by the third quarter of 2022.</p>\n<p>Again, tapering is NOT tightening, and we do not expect the Fed to start hiking the funds' rate until early 2023. The \"real\" funds' rate will be negative for some time which is NOT tightening at all. By the way, we disagree with Elizabeth Warren's criticism of Chairman Powell and hope that he is renominated next year. The bottom line is that the Fed will remain your friend for at least another 18 months. Don't fight the Fed!</p>\n<p>We are so frustrated by what is happening in D.C. It is all about politics, no surprise, and not about doing what is best for this country. Why do we always have to go to the brink before action is taken? That is precisely what happened this week when the Republicans caved and offered a two-month short-term debt limit extension letting the Dems off the hook from going the route of reconciliation. It passed Thursday night. Daily negotiations continue for the massive social infrastructure program. It will be much smaller than initially proposed, closer to $2 trillion rather than $3.5 trillion. We expect the individual and corporate tax increases to be much more reasonable than initially proposed, which is a clear positive for the economy and financial markets.</p>\n<p>The domestic economy is recovering from the Delta variant, which penalized growth during the summer months. The areas hit most over the summer; travel, dining, and leisure are coming back strongly, as evidenced by the recovery in the high-frequency data.</p>\n<p>Other recent data points include: initial jobless claims fell more than expected to 326,000; the index of consumer sentiment rose in September to 72.9, current economic conditions increased to 80.1, and consumer expectations rose to 68.1; the September Manufacturing PMI increased to 61.1, new orders to 66.7, employment up to 50.1, supplier deliveries to 73.4 and prices index increased to 81.2; the services index grew for the 15th month hitting 60.1, new orders at 63.2, employment at 53.7 and supplier deliveries at 69.6; new orders for manufactured goods increased 1.2% while shipments rose 0.1% and unfilled orders increased 1.0%; and the trade deficit widened to $73.3 billion as imports increased more rapidly than exports due to the strength of the domestic economy.</p>\n<p>Growth and profitability would be even more robust if not for shortages and supply line issues. But that will turn around in 2022 and be a big plus. The September employment data was disappointing with only 194,000 jobs created. The private sector did better adding 317,000 jobs while the public sector lost 123,000 jobs. Interestingly the unemployment rate fell to 4.8% which is the Fed's year-end target as the participation rate declined to 61.6. Hourly earnings rose 0.6% and are up 4.3% in the year through August. The Fed will most likely wait to see the next employment report before beginning tapering.</p>\n<p>The Eurozone economy has finally exceeded pre-covid levels, with most of the 20 indices that we monitor accelerating in recent weeks as cases/deaths have declined meaningfully. Shortages and supply line issues have hampered production while increasing inflationary pressures and won't ease until mid-2022. Energy costs are a real problem and may penalize growth next year. Unfortunately, OPEC opted against a big output boost lifting production by only 400,000 barrels/day, which will not be enough to limit further price increases, especially if we have a cold winter. And natural gas prices have gone through the roof, which will crimp consumer spending and hurt corporate operating margins.</p>\n<p>The global economy is improving as the number of covid cases, and deaths have peaked. Growth would even be more robust if not for shortages and supply line issues, but that will reverse as we move through 2022.</p>\n<p>Investment Conclusions</p>\n<p>Thursday, there was a massive sigh of relief when Congress agreed to extend the debt limit two months, ending the stalemate. We expect the Dems to coalesce around a roughly $2 trillion social infrastructure bill that will permit passage of the much-needed $1 trillion traditional infrastructure bill. What is a government? Fiscal policy will remain stimulative for years to come.</p>\n<p>Then we have a monetary policy. We expect the Fed to remain accommodative for a few more years. We do expect tapering to begin before year-end if the November employment report improves from the last one, but we do&nbsp;<b>not</b>&nbsp;see a rate hike until 2023, and even then, the \"real\" funds' rate will be negative, which is not restrictive at all.</p>\n<p>Shortages and supply line issues have played havoc on production and profitability for many industries/companies around the world in 2021, but this will reverse as we move through 2022, creating opportunities for investors willing to look over the valley.</p>\n<p>The bottom line is that we could have a great year in 2022 if our government could get its act together. The key remains keeping the coronavirus out of the picture, so we must vaccinate all the unvaccinated.</p>\n<p>While we have not seen many changes in our portfolio over the last few months, we have concentrated on the producers that will benefit from a robust global economy and tech companies benefitting from the digitalization boom. We recently added some financials and energy companies as we expect the yield curve to steepen more than previously anticipated. Higher energy prices are immediately ahead as demand outstrips supply. Next year, the big story will be the significant increase in dividends and buybacks well above the historical trend.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2022 Could Be A Great Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2022 Could Be A Great Year\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-10 09:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459137-2022-could-be-a-great-year><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nEconomies are reaccelerating as the number of Delta cases and death have peaked.\nWe could have a great year in 2022 if our government could get its act together.\nWe have concentrated on the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459137-2022-could-be-a-great-year\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459137-2022-could-be-a-great-year","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1194780749","content_text":"Summary\n\nEconomies are reaccelerating as the number of Delta cases and death have peaked.\nWe could have a great year in 2022 if our government could get its act together.\nWe have concentrated on the producers that will benefit from a robust global economy and tech companies benefitting from the digitalization boom.\n\nEven though we are rapidly putting the delta variant in the rear-view mirror, financial markets are struggling due to a lack of leadership in D.C. We have shortages and supply line issues that hamper production and profitability. All of this will pass.\nWhat is the problem? Our government is dysfunctional, and we need leadership, especially now, to handle the myriad of domestic and foreign issues facing all of us. We will muddle through and finally get a much-needed traditional infrastructure bill and possibly a scaled-down $2 trillion social spending bill along with lower-than-expected punitive tax increases, this year but 2022 could be a great year, not just a very good year, if only we worked together.\nWe have not altered our view that S&P earnings could exceed $220/share in 2022 and $235/share in 2023 as operating margins hit nearly 14% in 2023, up from 11.5% in 2019. Why? Corporations have learned to do more with less during the pandemic; shortages and supply line issues will ease, and substantial increases in technology spending will go a long way, offsetting higher labor costs while improving operations/efficiencies on all levels. Powell will be right that higher inflationary pressures will be transitory, but it may take longer to normalize. We will continue to have accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in 2022. Not a bad market scenario, so use corrections as opportunities to add to your positions. So, as I've said before, invest, don't trade.\nEconomies are reaccelerating as the number of Delta cases and death have peaked. Domestic cases have declined 23% and deaths 13% over the 14 days and 17% and 14%, respectively, globally. More than 6.43 billion doses have been administered globally across 184 countries at a daily rate of 28.7 million doses per day. In the U.S., 398 million doses have been given so far at an elevated rate of 931,983 doses per day.\nWe still see over 75% of the global population vaccinated within six months and herd immunity sooner. Pfizer(NYSE:PFE)filed Thursday with the FDA its vaccine for children ages 5-11, bringing shots for all school-age children closer, which will boost the economy as parents can return to work. We expect that both Pfizer and Merck's(NYSE:MRK)filings with the FDA will be approved well before year-end. All good news!\nThe Fed is itching to start tapering, ending its extraordinary monetary support, which is no longer needed as the economy is on firm footing, and it appears that the Delta variant is subsiding. Unfortunately, Powell and the Fed have been called out for oversight over board members' trading. Two governors have already resigned, and we expect one more may leave shortly. Tapering will probably begin before year-end if the next employment report improves from September and be finished by the third quarter of 2022.\nAgain, tapering is NOT tightening, and we do not expect the Fed to start hiking the funds' rate until early 2023. The \"real\" funds' rate will be negative for some time which is NOT tightening at all. By the way, we disagree with Elizabeth Warren's criticism of Chairman Powell and hope that he is renominated next year. The bottom line is that the Fed will remain your friend for at least another 18 months. Don't fight the Fed!\nWe are so frustrated by what is happening in D.C. It is all about politics, no surprise, and not about doing what is best for this country. Why do we always have to go to the brink before action is taken? That is precisely what happened this week when the Republicans caved and offered a two-month short-term debt limit extension letting the Dems off the hook from going the route of reconciliation. It passed Thursday night. Daily negotiations continue for the massive social infrastructure program. It will be much smaller than initially proposed, closer to $2 trillion rather than $3.5 trillion. We expect the individual and corporate tax increases to be much more reasonable than initially proposed, which is a clear positive for the economy and financial markets.\nThe domestic economy is recovering from the Delta variant, which penalized growth during the summer months. The areas hit most over the summer; travel, dining, and leisure are coming back strongly, as evidenced by the recovery in the high-frequency data.\nOther recent data points include: initial jobless claims fell more than expected to 326,000; the index of consumer sentiment rose in September to 72.9, current economic conditions increased to 80.1, and consumer expectations rose to 68.1; the September Manufacturing PMI increased to 61.1, new orders to 66.7, employment up to 50.1, supplier deliveries to 73.4 and prices index increased to 81.2; the services index grew for the 15th month hitting 60.1, new orders at 63.2, employment at 53.7 and supplier deliveries at 69.6; new orders for manufactured goods increased 1.2% while shipments rose 0.1% and unfilled orders increased 1.0%; and the trade deficit widened to $73.3 billion as imports increased more rapidly than exports due to the strength of the domestic economy.\nGrowth and profitability would be even more robust if not for shortages and supply line issues. But that will turn around in 2022 and be a big plus. The September employment data was disappointing with only 194,000 jobs created. The private sector did better adding 317,000 jobs while the public sector lost 123,000 jobs. Interestingly the unemployment rate fell to 4.8% which is the Fed's year-end target as the participation rate declined to 61.6. Hourly earnings rose 0.6% and are up 4.3% in the year through August. The Fed will most likely wait to see the next employment report before beginning tapering.\nThe Eurozone economy has finally exceeded pre-covid levels, with most of the 20 indices that we monitor accelerating in recent weeks as cases/deaths have declined meaningfully. Shortages and supply line issues have hampered production while increasing inflationary pressures and won't ease until mid-2022. Energy costs are a real problem and may penalize growth next year. Unfortunately, OPEC opted against a big output boost lifting production by only 400,000 barrels/day, which will not be enough to limit further price increases, especially if we have a cold winter. And natural gas prices have gone through the roof, which will crimp consumer spending and hurt corporate operating margins.\nThe global economy is improving as the number of covid cases, and deaths have peaked. Growth would even be more robust if not for shortages and supply line issues, but that will reverse as we move through 2022.\nInvestment Conclusions\nThursday, there was a massive sigh of relief when Congress agreed to extend the debt limit two months, ending the stalemate. We expect the Dems to coalesce around a roughly $2 trillion social infrastructure bill that will permit passage of the much-needed $1 trillion traditional infrastructure bill. What is a government? Fiscal policy will remain stimulative for years to come.\nThen we have a monetary policy. We expect the Fed to remain accommodative for a few more years. We do expect tapering to begin before year-end if the November employment report improves from the last one, but we do not see a rate hike until 2023, and even then, the \"real\" funds' rate will be negative, which is not restrictive at all.\nShortages and supply line issues have played havoc on production and profitability for many industries/companies around the world in 2021, but this will reverse as we move through 2022, creating opportunities for investors willing to look over the valley.\nThe bottom line is that we could have a great year in 2022 if our government could get its act together. The key remains keeping the coronavirus out of the picture, so we must vaccinate all the unvaccinated.\nWhile we have not seen many changes in our portfolio over the last few months, we have concentrated on the producers that will benefit from a robust global economy and tech companies benefitting from the digitalization boom. We recently added some financials and energy companies as we expect the yield curve to steepen more than previously anticipated. Higher energy prices are immediately ahead as demand outstrips supply. Next year, the big story will be the significant increase in dividends and buybacks well above the historical trend.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":128794674,"gmtCreate":1624530668898,"gmtModify":1631891859412,"author":{"id":"3576054263007646","authorId":"3576054263007646","name":"JinQuan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576054263007646","idStr":"3576054263007646"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting&nbsp;","listText":"Interesting&nbsp;","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128794674","repostId":"1169475137","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362995024,"gmtCreate":1614583916268,"gmtModify":1703478462048,"author":{"id":"3576054263007646","authorId":"3576054263007646","name":"JinQuan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576054263007646","idStr":"3576054263007646"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😯","listText":"😯","text":"😯","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362995024","repostId":"1155083909","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":324,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":860976304,"gmtCreate":1632128321008,"gmtModify":1632802666380,"author":{"id":"3576054263007646","authorId":"3576054263007646","name":"JinQuan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576054263007646","idStr":"3576054263007646"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alright","listText":"Alright","text":"Alright","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860976304","repostId":"2168505195","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":699974191,"gmtCreate":1639744657432,"gmtModify":1639744657597,"author":{"id":"3576054263007646","authorId":"3576054263007646","name":"JinQuan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576054263007646","idStr":"3576054263007646"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hodl","listText":"Hodl","text":"Hodl","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699974191","repostId":"1156042491","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":612,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}