燚哥的个人主页 - 老虎社区

燚哥

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：湖北

92关注

6粉丝

3主题

0勋章

2021-03-16

真想你快速起飞

2021-03-15

百度能起飞吗

2021-03-14

错过百万的牛股

2021-03-13

我90就out了。120的成本

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-13

什么垃圾股

2021-03-12

这些日子的新股都是垃圾股

2021-03-11

二天到800？

2021-03-11

$老虎证券(TIGR)$虎哥。啥时候起飞

2021-03-09

送点金币给我好不好

2021-03-09

$老虎证券(TIGR)$虎哥雄起

2021-03-08

还是虎哥 38美金

2021-03-08

$老虎证券(TIGR)$虎哥会好起来的

2021-03-07

失败的人总是在懊恼

2021-03-04

真令人失望

2021-03-03

马上暴力起飞

2021-03-02

还不错

@英为财情:“牛市女皇”、ARK Invest创始人警告美股回调风险

2021-03-02

好计谋

@Ivan_甘灿荣:这时候要注意做好避险，我推荐三个策略

2021-03-02

为什么[财迷] [财迷]

@交易员Owen:为什么这次跳水不简单，深入聊聊美债，美股和通胀的关系

2021-03-02

AMC。大家快上。蒙眼上20美金

Amc。gme。好股。好股。带大家财富自由@fangqing0622 @你听得到333 @阳光财经

AMC。大家快上。蒙眼上20美金

2021-03-02

欢迎吕菲特[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

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Wood）上周在接受媒体采访时表示，如果收益率继续“大幅”上升，股票的回调风险将越来越高。伍德称：“我的确认为，如果利率急剧上涨，我们会看到估值将被重估。”她指出，“过去20年来，我发现了一件有趣的事情，标普的远期市盈率往往会在20至25倍左右达到顶峰。我认为原因是，大多数投资组合经理或者量化研究人员预计正常名义GDP增长率应在4-5%的范围内，这应该是长期利率的正常水平。我们认为，正常的GDP增长可能更接近3%。”“如果长期利率趋于在这个水平稳定，将20至25倍的市盈率看作1比4%-5%的增长，那这就是名义增长率的倒数，也是触顶的位置。我认为，估值会重设，市场会感到恐惧。” 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什么是美债收益率，这个直播时再解释，总之现在全市场都在盯着这个数据。只要这个数据继续升高，美股的压力就越大，反之美股就反弹甚至继续新高。所以美股指的短期方向就根据这个收益率来判断即可。当然简单点就用20日均线作为评估依据，这个是我认为最简单而高效的评估方式。 &nbsp;美债收益率代表着无风险利率，无风险利率升高会影响股票估值。譬如说，一个公司年净利润率10%，在无风险利率为零的市场，那它的估值就会按10%的利润率来评估，但在无风险利率为3%的市场，那它的估值就会按10%-3%=7%的利润率来评估，从估值角度，后者比前者的估值少30%，那股价肯定会有影响的。 &nbsp;当下市场，是市场担忧通胀，预期美联储政策会转向所导致的应激反应。但当前根本未看到有任何政策层面上的转向，所以下跌幅度目前比较难评估。 所以当下策略层面的考虑更为重要。 首先仍有持仓股票的朋友，适当减仓。 第二，如果坚持长期看涨的朋友，请尽量持有传统道指类的股票，新科技类股票暂回避，逻辑在年度前瞻帖子里说过，疫情修复后的道纳比价修复。 第三，打算做空的朋友，请使用期权，例如SPX的看跌期权或者股指期货期权等。说不定周末1.9万亿方案投票通过后，市场有所反弹，期权方式损失确定收益易放大。 最后，喜欢做对","text":"美股这两天大涨大跌，相信很多朋友不知道如何处理。3月4日晚8点，我有场直播讲座和大家聊聊美股指的相关情况，届时会有针对通胀率，美债利率和美股关系的更详尽的解读。现在先给大家聊聊当下紧急的情况。 首先，长期关注我的朋友应该知道，我反复强调过今年的两个重要时间点，2月和8月，无论哪个月份，只要标普500指数收盘价跌穿20日均线就要做对冲或者离场的准备。这是风险收益率的衡量问题，当下的跌穿20日线后风险明显高于收益，所以请做好风险考量，这时候宁愿等指数反弹上去创新高再重新投入，也比盲目持仓要好得多。 什么是美债收益率，这个直播时再解释，总之现在全市场都在盯着这个数据。只要这个数据继续升高，美股的压力就越大，反之美股就反弹甚至继续新高。所以美股指的短期方向就根据这个收益率来判断即可。当然简单点就用20日均线作为评估依据，这个是我认为最简单而高效的评估方式。 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