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燚哥
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IP属地:湖北
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热门
燚哥
2021-03-16
真想你快速起飞
燚哥
2021-03-15
百度能起飞吗
燚哥
2021-03-14
错过百万的牛股
燚哥
2021-03-13
我90就out了。120的成本
抱歉,原内容已删除
燚哥
2021-03-13
什么垃圾股
燚哥
2021-03-12
这些日子的新股都是垃圾股
燚哥
2021-03-11
二天到800?
燚哥
2021-03-11
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
虎哥。啥时候起飞
燚哥
2021-03-09
送点金币给我好不好
燚哥
2021-03-09
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
虎哥雄起
燚哥
2021-03-08
还是虎哥 38美金
燚哥
2021-03-08
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
虎哥会好起来的
燚哥
2021-03-07
失败的人总是在懊恼
燚哥
2021-03-04
真令人失望
燚哥
2021-03-03
马上暴力起飞
燚哥
2021-03-02
还不错
@英为财情:“牛市女皇”、ARK Invest创始人警告美股回调风险
燚哥
2021-03-02
好计谋
@Ivan_甘灿荣:这时候要注意做好避险,我推荐三个策略
燚哥
2021-03-02
为什么[财迷] [财迷]
@交易员Owen:为什么这次跳水不简单,深入聊聊美债,美股和通胀的关系
燚哥
2021-03-02
AMC。大家快上。蒙眼上20美金
Amc。gme。好股。 好股。带大家财富自由
@fangqing0622
@你听得到333
@阳光财经
AMC。大家快上。蒙眼上20美金
燚哥
2021-03-02
欢迎吕菲特[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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Wood)上周在接受媒体采访时表示,如果收益率继续“大幅”上升,股票的回调风险将越来越高。伍德称:“我的确认为,如果利率急剧上涨,我们会看到估值将被重估。”她指出,“过去20年来,我发现了一件有趣的事情,标普的远期市盈率往往会在20至25倍左右达到顶峰。我认为原因是,大多数投资组合经理或者量化研究人员预计正常名义GDP增长率应在4-5%的范围内,这应该是长期利率的正常水平。我们认为,正常的GDP增长可能更接近3%。”“如果长期利率趋于在这个水平稳定,将20至25倍的市盈率看作1比4%-5%的增长,那这就是名义增长率的倒数,也是触顶的位置。我认为,估值会重设,市场会感到恐惧。” 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首先,长期关注我的朋友应该知道,我反复强调过今年的两个重要时间点,2月和8月,无论哪个月份,只要标普500指数收盘价跌穿20日均线就要做对冲或者离场的准备。这是风险收益率的衡量问题,当下的跌穿20日线后风险明显高于收益,所以请做好风险考量,这时候宁愿等指数反弹上去创新高再重新投入,也比盲目持仓要好得多。 什么是美债收益率,这个直播时再解释,总之现在全市场都在盯着这个数据。只要这个数据继续升高,美股的压力就越大,反之美股就反弹甚至继续新高。所以美股指的短期方向就根据这个收益率来判断即可。当然简单点就用20日均线作为评估依据,这个是我认为最简单而高效的评估方式。 美债收益率代表着无风险利率,无风险利率升高会影响股票估值。譬如说,一个公司年净利润率10%,在无风险利率为零的市场,那它的估值就会按10%的利润率来评估,但在无风险利率为3%的市场,那它的估值就会按10%-3%=7%的利润率来评估,从估值角度,后者比前者的估值少30%,那股价肯定会有影响的。 当下市场,是市场担忧通胀,预期美联储政策会转向所导致的应激反应。但当前根本未看到有任何政策层面上的转向,所以下跌幅度目前比较难评估。 所以当下策略层面的考虑更为重要。 首先仍有持仓股票的朋友,适当减仓。 第二,如果坚持长期看涨的朋友,请尽量持有传统道指类的股票,新科技类股票暂回避,逻辑在年度前瞻帖子里说过,疫情修复后的道纳比价修复。 第三,打算做空的朋友,请使用期权,例如SPX的看跌期权或者股指期货期权等。说不定周末1.9万亿方案投票通过后,市场有所反弹,期权方式损失确定收益易放大。 最后,喜欢做对","listText":"美股这两天大涨大跌,相信很多朋友不知道如何处理。3月4日晚8点,我有场直播讲座和大家聊聊美股指的相关情况,届时会有针对通胀率,美债利率和美股关系的更详尽的解读。现在先给大家聊聊当下紧急的情况。 首先,长期关注我的朋友应该知道,我反复强调过今年的两个重要时间点,2月和8月,无论哪个月份,只要标普500指数收盘价跌穿20日均线就要做对冲或者离场的准备。这是风险收益率的衡量问题,当下的跌穿20日线后风险明显高于收益,所以请做好风险考量,这时候宁愿等指数反弹上去创新高再重新投入,也比盲目持仓要好得多。 什么是美债收益率,这个直播时再解释,总之现在全市场都在盯着这个数据。只要这个数据继续升高,美股的压力就越大,反之美股就反弹甚至继续新高。所以美股指的短期方向就根据这个收益率来判断即可。当然简单点就用20日均线作为评估依据,这个是我认为最简单而高效的评估方式。 美债收益率代表着无风险利率,无风险利率升高会影响股票估值。譬如说,一个公司年净利润率10%,在无风险利率为零的市场,那它的估值就会按10%的利润率来评估,但在无风险利率为3%的市场,那它的估值就会按10%-3%=7%的利润率来评估,从估值角度,后者比前者的估值少30%,那股价肯定会有影响的。 当下市场,是市场担忧通胀,预期美联储政策会转向所导致的应激反应。但当前根本未看到有任何政策层面上的转向,所以下跌幅度目前比较难评估。 所以当下策略层面的考虑更为重要。 首先仍有持仓股票的朋友,适当减仓。 第二,如果坚持长期看涨的朋友,请尽量持有传统道指类的股票,新科技类股票暂回避,逻辑在年度前瞻帖子里说过,疫情修复后的道纳比价修复。 第三,打算做空的朋友,请使用期权,例如SPX的看跌期权或者股指期货期权等。说不定周末1.9万亿方案投票通过后,市场有所反弹,期权方式损失确定收益易放大。 最后,喜欢做对","text":"美股这两天大涨大跌,相信很多朋友不知道如何处理。3月4日晚8点,我有场直播讲座和大家聊聊美股指的相关情况,届时会有针对通胀率,美债利率和美股关系的更详尽的解读。现在先给大家聊聊当下紧急的情况。 首先,长期关注我的朋友应该知道,我反复强调过今年的两个重要时间点,2月和8月,无论哪个月份,只要标普500指数收盘价跌穿20日均线就要做对冲或者离场的准备。这是风险收益率的衡量问题,当下的跌穿20日线后风险明显高于收益,所以请做好风险考量,这时候宁愿等指数反弹上去创新高再重新投入,也比盲目持仓要好得多。 什么是美债收益率,这个直播时再解释,总之现在全市场都在盯着这个数据。只要这个数据继续升高,美股的压力就越大,反之美股就反弹甚至继续新高。所以美股指的短期方向就根据这个收益率来判断即可。当然简单点就用20日均线作为评估依据,这个是我认为最简单而高效的评估方式。 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/338364255\" target=\"_blank\">相比强烈的通胀预期,美股的开年黑其实算不了什么</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/336057536\" target=\"_blank\">国会遭受冲击,最重要的是这个变动</a> 只是点位上,我预测10年美债收益率到1%的时候会出现美股的小调整,但没想到市场的风险情绪在拜登上台和民主党统一国会和白宫后,被短时间激发,疫情的负面影响也到了后期,在1个多月时间里美股连创新高,没有对1%的美债收益做任何反应,美股的估值也是在那个时候被悄悄拉大。 我们看一下标普的席勒市盈率走势,在今年年初是34.8倍。这个只是表面上的间接估值法的一个结果。 实际上你要这么看,这相当于,我们用大约35单位的价格购得了1单位的每股盈利。那么1/35得到的以标普每股盈利为收益的收益率为2.5%多。 那为什么说这个估值是在被拉高?我们得看下平准通胀率,也就是长期市场对未来的通胀率的预测。10","listText":"快速而猛烈的下跌,乃至于触发熔断,然后花上几个月的时间修复,这样灾难性的暴跌我们一般叫崩盘,股灾啥的,在当下的市场环境下,这个可能性我们都知道不大。 但如果说一场调整,持续2到3个月,每天涨涨跌跌,总体上跌的要比涨的多,甚至像本周这样连续的大跌反复出现,几个月下来,你的收益会少于周期开始的时候,这样的市场阶段我们怎么定义呢?不是股灾也不是崩盘,那就是中长期震荡回调期。 当10年美债利率攀升到1.5%以后,如果持续向上,美股会不会进入一个赚钱选股都相对更难的长期回调时期呢?所以这点上,我们得小心。避险的意识必须要有。 这次分享,我就主要聊一下,为什么这次美股大跌不能当成一次简单的回调看待。这次跳水不简单。 其实关于美债利率对美股的影响,我在年初大选的时候就已经开始预警了。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/338364255\" target=\"_blank\">相比强烈的通胀预期,美股的开年黑其实算不了什么</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/336057536\" target=\"_blank\">国会遭受冲击,最重要的是这个变动</a> 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