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chundonglin
2021-07-26
👌
@贾永吉:2021上半年投资总结
chundonglin
2021-06-24
对
@机构有话说:欧佩克+增产板上钉钉？耶伦和卡普兰的观点出现明显分歧
chundonglin
2021-06-24
哎 晋级之路
chundonglin
2021-06-23
赔赔赔，没头了
chundonglin
2021-06-20
已
@价值投资为王:奈雪的茶估值贵吗？会不会破发？
chundonglin
2021-06-14
端午节假期
chundonglin
2021-06-13
周天气人😡
chundonglin
2021-06-12
周六陪娃上学
chundonglin
2021-06-08
你好大家好
chundonglin
2021-06-05
周末休息 下周再战
chundonglin
2021-06-04
新的一天 周五
chundonglin
2021-06-02
只要我躺得足够平，资本家的镰刀就永远割不到我[得意]
chundonglin
2021-06-01
周二开市卖吗
chundonglin
2021-05-30
内卷与躺平
chundonglin
2021-05-29
周末愉快大家
chundonglin
2021-05-21
昨天回血一点
chundonglin
2021-05-19
中概有所抬头？
chundonglin
2021-05-18
02618来了
chundonglin
2021-05-09
周末休息一下
chundonglin
2021-05-05
假期即将结束
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欧佩克+正考虑在下周召开会议时，将该组织的原油日产量提高约50万桶，并且有可能在接下来的几个月里保持相似的增产量，这将小幅提振全球原油供应。 欧佩克+此前已同意将5月至7月的产量总共提高大约200万桶/天，该组织将于7月1日举行下一次会议，讨论未来几个月的产量政策。但代表们也表示，欧佩克+对增产的态度十分谨慎，因为他们担心全球经济复苏不平衡导致需求不确定。 昨晚公布的最新EIA库存报告显示，上周美国原油库存减少761.4万桶至4.591亿桶，减少1.6%；产量减少10万桶至1110万桶/日。 此外，美国6月Markit制造业PMI初值62.6，创历史新高。截至今日凌晨收盘，美股标普500指数跌0.11%，欧洲Stoxx50指数跌0.91%，美元指数涨0.10%。外盘商品期货方面，WTI原油涨0.27%，Brent原油涨0.89%，CME铜涨2.07%，LME铜涨2.36%，LME铝涨0.33%，LME锌涨1.28%，LME镍涨1.47%，黄金跌0.01%，白银涨0.39%。 耶伦：2021年年底美国的通胀率将低于5% 北京时间6月24日凌晨，美国财长耶伦表示，2021年年底美国的通胀率将低于5%，美联储的超额准备金利率（IOER）调整是技术性调整。美联储明确表示，货币政策立场丝毫没有改变。此外，被问及接近债务上限的最后期限时，耶伦表示，国家债务违约应被视为是“不可想象的”，敦促在接近最后期限前提高或暂停债务上限。并表示，美国可能在8月达到债务违约点。 美联储官员卡普兰表示，预计美联储将在2022年首次加息，2022年通胀将有所缓和，但范围会扩大。预计2021年PCE通胀将为3.4%，2022年将放缓至2.4%。美国经济可能比人们预期的更早达到美联储缩减资产购买规模的门槛。 国家发改委持续关注大宗商品保供稳价问题 监管层一直在关注大宗商品过快上涨带来的","listText":"最新期货市场情报梳理： 欧佩克+正考虑在下周召开会议时，将该组织的原油日产量提高约50万桶，并且有可能在接下来的几个月里保持相似的增产量，这将小幅提振全球原油供应。 欧佩克+此前已同意将5月至7月的产量总共提高大约200万桶/天，该组织将于7月1日举行下一次会议，讨论未来几个月的产量政策。但代表们也表示，欧佩克+对增产的态度十分谨慎，因为他们担心全球经济复苏不平衡导致需求不确定。 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昨晚公布的最新EIA库存报告显示，上周美国原油库存减少761.4万桶至4.591亿桶，减少1.6%；产量减少10万桶至1110万桶/日。 此外，美国6月Markit制造业PMI初值62.6，创历史新高。截至今日凌晨收盘，美股标普500指数跌0.11%，欧洲Stoxx50指数跌0.91%，美元指数涨0.10%。外盘商品期货方面，WTI原油涨0.27%，Brent原油涨0.89%，CME铜涨2.07%，LME铜涨2.36%，LME铝涨0.33%，LME锌涨1.28%，LME镍涨1.47%，黄金跌0.01%，白银涨0.39%。 耶伦：2021年年底美国的通胀率将低于5% 北京时间6月24日凌晨，美国财长耶伦表示，2021年年底美国的通胀率将低于5%，美联储的超额准备金利率（IOER）调整是技术性调整。美联储明确表示，货币政策立场丝毫没有改变。此外，被问及接近债务上限的最后期限时，耶伦表示，国家债务违约应被视为是“不可想象的”，敦促在接近最后期限前提高或暂停债务上限。并表示，美国可能在8月达到债务违约点。 美联储官员卡普兰表示，预计美联储将在2022年首次加息，2022年通胀将有所缓和，但范围会扩大。预计2021年PCE通胀将为3.4%，2022年将放缓至2.4%。美国经济可能比人们预期的更早达到美联储缩减资产购买规模的门槛。 国家发改委持续关注大宗商品保供稳价问题 监管层一直在关注大宗商品过快上涨带来的","text":"最新期货市场情报梳理： 欧佩克+正考虑在下周召开会议时，将该组织的原油日产量提高约50万桶，并且有可能在接下来的几个月里保持相似的增产量，这将小幅提振全球原油供应。 欧佩克+此前已同意将5月至7月的产量总共提高大约200万桶/天，该组织将于7月1日举行下一次会议，讨论未来几个月的产量政策。但代表们也表示，欧佩克+对增产的态度十分谨慎，因为他们担心全球经济复苏不平衡导致需求不确定。 昨晚公布的最新EIA库存报告显示，上周美国原油库存减少761.4万桶至4.591亿桶，减少1.6%；产量减少10万桶至1110万桶/日。 此外，美国6月Markit制造业PMI初值62.6，创历史新高。截至今日凌晨收盘，美股标普500指数跌0.11%，欧洲Stoxx50指数跌0.91%，美元指数涨0.10%。外盘商品期货方面，WTI原油涨0.27%，Brent原油涨0.89%，CME铜涨2.07%，LME铜涨2.36%，LME铝涨0.33%，LME锌涨1.28%，LME镍涨1.47%，黄金跌0.01%，白银涨0.39%。 耶伦：2021年年底美国的通胀率将低于5% 北京时间6月24日凌晨，美国财长耶伦表示，2021年年底美国的通胀率将低于5%，美联储的超额准备金利率（IOER）调整是技术性调整。美联储明确表示，货币政策立场丝毫没有改变。此外，被问及接近债务上限的最后期限时，耶伦表示，国家债务违约应被视为是“不可想象的”，敦促在接近最后期限前提高或暂停债务上限。并表示，美国可能在8月达到债务违约点。 美联储官员卡普兰表示，预计美联储将在2022年首次加息，2022年通胀将有所缓和，但范围会扩大。预计2021年PCE通胀将为3.4%，2022年将放缓至2.4%。美国经济可能比人们预期的更早达到美联储缩减资产购买规模的门槛。 国家发改委持续关注大宗商品保供稳价问题 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1. 奶茶品类竞争者众，奈雪不是老大。 高端现制奶茶目前的老大是喜茶，虽未上市，但喜茶主打小店，盈利能力略胜一筹，加上营销力不错，奈雪只能当老二。 除了喜茶和奈雪之外，茶颜悦色、乐乐茶、伏见桃山等品牌紧随其后。 奶茶是个好品类，但是一个没有门槛的品类，在商业赛道上，奈雪败了一道！ 2. 奈雪产品贵，但公司还在亏损。 一杯奶茶要25元+，卖的这么贵，消费者想当然认为这是一个暴利生意，但奈雪却连年亏损。 3. 340亿港币市值有点高！ 赛道上的缺陷，加上作为奶茶第一股，奈雪没有可以对标的公司，因此，多数抵制奈雪的人认为340亿港币的估值有点太高了。 从基石上看，奈雪这次引入的多是基金公司，确实没有实力靠前的机构，与喜茶腾讯、IDG和高瓴的阵容相比，确实差了些。 那奈雪的茶到底值不值得打新？首日又会不会破发？ 没有同行上市，因此，比估值只能拿星巴克来PK。 星巴克1992年6月登陆美股，PE在上市之后不久达到97倍，资本市场认为咖啡赛道极佳，加上门店快速扩张，估值一路上行。 在2001年，星巴克大举扩张海外，打开市场想象空间，估值最高达到141PE。 金融危机之后，星巴克的快速扩张告一段落，营收增速下滑，估值维持在30倍左右。 从星巴克发展历程看，在高速扩张阶段，公司估值将明显偏高，犹如奈雪的茶当下的定位。 根据奈雪的计划，其计划在2021年及2022年分别开设约300间及350间奈雪的茶茶饮店，且预期在2023年新开设的数量不低于2022年。 也即是说，未来2年，奈雪将处于高速扩张期间，估值恐将保持在高位。 由于奈雪尚未盈利，因此采用PS估值做对比，奈雪假设2021年店铺数量能达到791家，营收粗略估计为50亿人民币，则PS估值为5.6倍","listText":"奈雪今日开始招股，不同于时代天使，网上抵制奈雪的声音较多，主要理由有几个： 1. 奶茶品类竞争者众，奈雪不是老大。 高端现制奶茶目前的老大是喜茶，虽未上市，但喜茶主打小店，盈利能力略胜一筹，加上营销力不错，奈雪只能当老二。 除了喜茶和奈雪之外，茶颜悦色、乐乐茶、伏见桃山等品牌紧随其后。 奶茶是个好品类，但是一个没有门槛的品类，在商业赛道上，奈雪败了一道！ 2. 奈雪产品贵，但公司还在亏损。 一杯奶茶要25元+，卖的这么贵，消费者想当然认为这是一个暴利生意，但奈雪却连年亏损。 3. 340亿港币市值有点高！ 赛道上的缺陷，加上作为奶茶第一股，奈雪没有可以对标的公司，因此，多数抵制奈雪的人认为340亿港币的估值有点太高了。 从基石上看，奈雪这次引入的多是基金公司，确实没有实力靠前的机构，与喜茶腾讯、IDG和高瓴的阵容相比，确实差了些。 那奈雪的茶到底值不值得打新？首日又会不会破发？ 没有同行上市，因此，比估值只能拿星巴克来PK。 星巴克1992年6月登陆美股，PE在上市之后不久达到97倍，资本市场认为咖啡赛道极佳，加上门店快速扩张，估值一路上行。 在2001年，星巴克大举扩张海外，打开市场想象空间，估值最高达到141PE。 金融危机之后，星巴克的快速扩张告一段落，营收增速下滑，估值维持在30倍左右。 从星巴克发展历程看，在高速扩张阶段，公司估值将明显偏高，犹如奈雪的茶当下的定位。 根据奈雪的计划，其计划在2021年及2022年分别开设约300间及350间奈雪的茶茶饮店，且预期在2023年新开设的数量不低于2022年。 也即是说，未来2年，奈雪将处于高速扩张期间，估值恐将保持在高位。 由于奈雪尚未盈利，因此采用PS估值做对比，奈雪假设2021年店铺数量能达到791家，营收粗略估计为50亿人民币，则PS估值为5.6倍","text":"奈雪今日开始招股，不同于时代天使，网上抵制奈雪的声音较多，主要理由有几个： 1. 奶茶品类竞争者众，奈雪不是老大。 高端现制奶茶目前的老大是喜茶，虽未上市，但喜茶主打小店，盈利能力略胜一筹，加上营销力不错，奈雪只能当老二。 除了喜茶和奈雪之外，茶颜悦色、乐乐茶、伏见桃山等品牌紧随其后。 奶茶是个好品类，但是一个没有门槛的品类，在商业赛道上，奈雪败了一道！ 2. 奈雪产品贵，但公司还在亏损。 一杯奶茶要25元+，卖的这么贵，消费者想当然认为这是一个暴利生意，但奈雪却连年亏损。 3. 340亿港币市值有点高！ 赛道上的缺陷，加上作为奶茶第一股，奈雪没有可以对标的公司，因此，多数抵制奈雪的人认为340亿港币的估值有点太高了。 从基石上看，奈雪这次引入的多是基金公司，确实没有实力靠前的机构，与喜茶腾讯、IDG和高瓴的阵容相比，确实差了些。 那奈雪的茶到底值不值得打新？首日又会不会破发？ 没有同行上市，因此，比估值只能拿星巴克来PK。 星巴克1992年6月登陆美股，PE在上市之后不久达到97倍，资本市场认为咖啡赛道极佳，加上门店快速扩张，估值一路上行。 在2001年，星巴克大举扩张海外，打开市场想象空间，估值最高达到141PE。 金融危机之后，星巴克的快速扩张告一段落，营收增速下滑，估值维持在30倍左右。 从星巴克发展历程看，在高速扩张阶段，公司估值将明显偏高，犹如奈雪的茶当下的定位。 根据奈雪的计划，其计划在2021年及2022年分别开设约300间及350间奈雪的茶茶饮店，且预期在2023年新开设的数量不低于2022年。 也即是说，未来2年，奈雪将处于高速扩张期间，估值恐将保持在高位。 由于奈雪尚未盈利，因此采用PS估值做对比，奈雪假设2021年店铺数量能达到791家，营收粗略估计为50亿人民币，则PS估值为5.6倍","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0602f9b0b131c3f485964c48175e2be5","width":"945","height":"525"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166832841","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":185816047,"gmtCreate":1623640726689,"gmtModify":1623640726689,"author":{"id":"3575596357533629","authorId":"3575596357533629","name":"chundonglin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3e7fde812797a6712e48c0028af2939","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575596357533629","authorIdStr":"3575596357533629"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"端午节假期","listText":"端午节假期","text":"端午节假期","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185816047","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1879,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
