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重演FTX崩盘前一幕：币安币BNB暴跌
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稳如老狗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/268438991364416","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1895,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":623682071,"gmtCreate":1671322507593,"gmtModify":1671322509255,"author":{"id":"3575083547919829","authorId":"3575083547919829","name":"大玉姐","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9f1319fd18ddddf3b495e8dab3749a1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575083547919829","idStr":"3575083547919829"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"空气价格也是起伏不定的","listText":"空气价格也是起伏不定的","text":"空气价格也是起伏不定的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623682071","repostId":"1139246929","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1139246929","pubTimestamp":1671251611,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139246929?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-17 12:33","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"重演FTX崩盘前一幕：币安币BNB暴跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139246929","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"赵长鹏费力安抚，而市场已如惊弓之鸟。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者：韩旭阳</p><p>距离FTX的崩盘危机已发生一个月，正当许多人以为其昔日的竞争对手币安可以在加密货币市场“独占鳌头”时，另一场危机似乎正在酝酿之中。</p><p>数据显示，截至目前，加密货币交易所币安的原生代币BNB在过去一天下跌了近15%，过去一周下跌近21%，是自7月以来的最低水平。</p><p>根据 CoinMarketCap 的数据，BNB于2017年首次发行，是世界上市值第五大的加密货币，市值约为390亿美元，仅次于比特币、以太坊、tether和USD Coin。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082596efd81a1e21a3270d65376054c6\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>FTX的崩盘并没有令币安高枕无忧，相反，币安面临的最大问题就在于此。</b>币安是FTX的第一个外部投资者，在去年退出FTX的股权时，币安获得了约21亿美元。</p><p>而FTX倒闭意味着，币安可能会被收回这笔资金。FTX提出破产申请后，受托人希望收回FTX向外部企业或投资者提供的任何欺诈性资金转移。</p><p>另外，区块链资讯平台 Nansen 的数据显示，币安在截至周三的24小时内资金净流出量达到9.02亿美元，不仅远高于其他交易所，更是第二高净流出量的9倍，是过去一个月内的最高水平。在截至本周二的过去7天里，币安的净流出资金一度达到了37亿美元，周一至周三的净提款达到了近60亿美元。</p><p>赵长鹏安抚市场</p><p>面对不断蔓延的市场担忧，周四，币安首席执行官赵长鹏在接受媒体采访时对公司的财务健康状况予以了肯定：</p><blockquote>我们在财务上没有问题。</blockquote><p>针对巨额净提款，赵长鹏在推特上表示：</p><blockquote>事态似乎已经稳定下来。我们的提款比LUNA、FTX倒台时还要来得多，现在存款又回来了。</blockquote><p>Nansen 的数据显示，币安在24小时之内又净流入约7.18亿美元，似乎验证了赵长鹏所说的事态已经开始缓解，这显示币安有足够的资金储备面对挤兑浪潮。 币安也强调，公司将客户的加密货币存放在单独的账户中，他们1:1保存用户资产，整体的资本结构是没有债务的。</p><p>币安的发言人在一份声明中向媒体表示：“我们通过了这场极端的压力测试，因为我们的业务模式非常简单——托管资产，并从交易费用中获得收入。”发言人补充称，币安还保留了10亿美元的应急基金，以保护极端情况下的用户提款。</p><p>但被问及是否准备返还这21亿美元时，赵长鹏回答称会把这个问题留给律师，而市场认为这是一种逃避的态度倾向。</p><p>市场对赵长鹏的安抚言论也持怀疑态度。在FTX倒闭之前，其高官们也知道该公司处于流动性危机之中，但创始人兼前首席执行官SBF也在推特上声称，公司资产状况良好。最终，该交易所仍未能幸免于破产。</p><p>市场究竟在害怕什么？</p><p>一个引发市场恐慌的可能原因，是近日传出美国政府正考虑对币安提起诉讼，认为币安可能涉及洗钱等罪行。</p><p>媒体去年就曾报道称，币安正在接受美国司法部和国税局的洗钱和税务调查。Chainalysis Inc.是一家区块链取证公司，其客户包括美国联邦机构。该公司在2020年得出结论称，<b>在其审查的交易中，通过币安流动的、与犯罪活动有关的资金超过了其他任何加密货币交易所。</b></p><p>虽然美国政府尚未确认将对币安提起诉讼，但媒体指出，<b>经历过币圈一连串的事件后，现在投资者对于在交易所置放资金这件事变得益发谨慎，如惊弓之鸟的投资者变得更为敏感，而币安近日爆出负面报导，也导致提款量突然上升。</b></p><p>数据显示，交易巨头 Jump Trading、Wintermute 过去一周里都从币安提取了大量资金，而Jump Trading更是最大的提款者，7天里提取了多达1.46亿美元，其中包括1.02亿美元的币安稳定币BUSD。</p><p>根据CoinMarketCap的数据，BNB的总供应量为2亿，其中流通供应量约为1.6亿。媒体6月曾报道称，美国证券交易委员会正在调查2017年的代币销售是否相当于提供证券，应该向监管机构登记。</p><p>区块链资讯平台 Arkham Intelligence 分析师 Henry Fisher 则强调，币安的总资产高达640亿美元，目前的资金流出并无异常，还没有什么好大惊小怪的。</p><p>币安“大而不倒”</p><p>周五，会计师事务所 Mazars Group 还停止了为币安和其他加密货币公司提供报告的工作，市场担忧再度加剧。这类报告旨在证明这些公司拥有必要的准备金，可以应对任何潜在的客户提款激增。事实上，可能正是市场对 Mazars 的储备证明报告缺乏信心，才导致该公司停止了所有此类工作。</p><p>在FTX崩盘之后，币安的市场霸主地位并没有给人们带来太多的信心保障，<b>币安已经成为了一个“大到不倒”的市场参与者。与传统金融不同，在加密货币市场上，没有央行作为最后贷款人兜底，也没有任何主体可以阻止潜在的崩盘、提供救助或缓解危机的蔓延。</b></p><p>去中心化交易所开发商 Shipyard Software 的首席执行官兼联合创始人 Mark Lurie 周五向媒体表示：</p><blockquote>我不认为币安是在试图制造问题，但这个组织现在对我们所有人来说都是一种风险。</blockquote><blockquote>任何时候，只要有一个参与者控制着大量的交易量，就会存在很多系统性风险。</blockquote><p>根据 CryptoCompare 的数据，随着FTX帝国破产，币安的市场份额已经增长到52.9%——是有史以来最大的，其衍生品的交易份额也增长到67.2%。</p><p>在周三美国参议院委员会关于FTX的听证会上，田纳西州参议员 Bill Hagerty 表示，假设币安也发生了类似的危机，对加密货币行业来说是灾难性的，对所有参与该行业的投资者来说也是灾难性的。</p></body></html>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>重演FTX崩盘前一幕：币安币BNB暴跌</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n重演FTX崩盘前一幕：币安币BNB暴跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-17 12:33 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3677716><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：韩旭阳距离FTX的崩盘危机已发生一个月，正当许多人以为其昔日的竞争对手币安可以在加密货币市场“独占鳌头”时，另一场危机似乎正在酝酿之中。数据显示，截至目前，加密货币交易所币安的原生代币BNB在过去一天下跌了近15%，过去一周下跌近21%，是自7月以来的最低水平。根据 CoinMarketCap 的数据，BNB于2017年首次发行，是世界上市值第五大的加密货币，市值约为390亿美元，仅次于比特...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3677716\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea40fdb4b6683a70ca9b2e997c9aadbc","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3677716","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1139246929","content_text":"作者：韩旭阳距离FTX的崩盘危机已发生一个月，正当许多人以为其昔日的竞争对手币安可以在加密货币市场“独占鳌头”时，另一场危机似乎正在酝酿之中。数据显示，截至目前，加密货币交易所币安的原生代币BNB在过去一天下跌了近15%，过去一周下跌近21%，是自7月以来的最低水平。根据 CoinMarketCap 的数据，BNB于2017年首次发行，是世界上市值第五大的加密货币，市值约为390亿美元，仅次于比特币、以太坊、tether和USD Coin。FTX的崩盘并没有令币安高枕无忧，相反，币安面临的最大问题就在于此。币安是FTX的第一个外部投资者，在去年退出FTX的股权时，币安获得了约21亿美元。而FTX倒闭意味着，币安可能会被收回这笔资金。FTX提出破产申请后，受托人希望收回FTX向外部企业或投资者提供的任何欺诈性资金转移。另外，区块链资讯平台 Nansen 的数据显示，币安在截至周三的24小时内资金净流出量达到9.02亿美元，不仅远高于其他交易所，更是第二高净流出量的9倍，是过去一个月内的最高水平。在截至本周二的过去7天里，币安的净流出资金一度达到了37亿美元，周一至周三的净提款达到了近60亿美元。赵长鹏安抚市场面对不断蔓延的市场担忧，周四，币安首席执行官赵长鹏在接受媒体采访时对公司的财务健康状况予以了肯定：我们在财务上没有问题。针对巨额净提款，赵长鹏在推特上表示：事态似乎已经稳定下来。我们的提款比LUNA、FTX倒台时还要来得多，现在存款又回来了。Nansen 的数据显示，币安在24小时之内又净流入约7.18亿美元，似乎验证了赵长鹏所说的事态已经开始缓解，这显示币安有足够的资金储备面对挤兑浪潮。 币安也强调，公司将客户的加密货币存放在单独的账户中，他们1:1保存用户资产，整体的资本结构是没有债务的。币安的发言人在一份声明中向媒体表示：“我们通过了这场极端的压力测试，因为我们的业务模式非常简单——托管资产，并从交易费用中获得收入。”发言人补充称，币安还保留了10亿美元的应急基金，以保护极端情况下的用户提款。但被问及是否准备返还这21亿美元时，赵长鹏回答称会把这个问题留给律师，而市场认为这是一种逃避的态度倾向。市场对赵长鹏的安抚言论也持怀疑态度。在FTX倒闭之前，其高官们也知道该公司处于流动性危机之中，但创始人兼前首席执行官SBF也在推特上声称，公司资产状况良好。最终，该交易所仍未能幸免于破产。市场究竟在害怕什么？一个引发市场恐慌的可能原因，是近日传出美国政府正考虑对币安提起诉讼，认为币安可能涉及洗钱等罪行。媒体去年就曾报道称，币安正在接受美国司法部和国税局的洗钱和税务调查。Chainalysis Inc.是一家区块链取证公司，其客户包括美国联邦机构。该公司在2020年得出结论称，在其审查的交易中，通过币安流动的、与犯罪活动有关的资金超过了其他任何加密货币交易所。虽然美国政府尚未确认将对币安提起诉讼，但媒体指出，经历过币圈一连串的事件后，现在投资者对于在交易所置放资金这件事变得益发谨慎，如惊弓之鸟的投资者变得更为敏感，而币安近日爆出负面报导，也导致提款量突然上升。数据显示，交易巨头 Jump Trading、Wintermute 过去一周里都从币安提取了大量资金，而Jump Trading更是最大的提款者，7天里提取了多达1.46亿美元，其中包括1.02亿美元的币安稳定币BUSD。根据CoinMarketCap的数据，BNB的总供应量为2亿，其中流通供应量约为1.6亿。媒体6月曾报道称，美国证券交易委员会正在调查2017年的代币销售是否相当于提供证券，应该向监管机构登记。区块链资讯平台 Arkham Intelligence 分析师 Henry Fisher 则强调，币安的总资产高达640亿美元，目前的资金流出并无异常，还没有什么好大惊小怪的。币安“大而不倒”周五，会计师事务所 Mazars Group 还停止了为币安和其他加密货币公司提供报告的工作，市场担忧再度加剧。这类报告旨在证明这些公司拥有必要的准备金，可以应对任何潜在的客户提款激增。事实上，可能正是市场对 Mazars 的储备证明报告缺乏信心，才导致该公司停止了所有此类工作。在FTX崩盘之后，币安的市场霸主地位并没有给人们带来太多的信心保障，币安已经成为了一个“大到不倒”的市场参与者。与传统金融不同，在加密货币市场上，没有央行作为最后贷款人兜底，也没有任何主体可以阻止潜在的崩盘、提供救助或缓解危机的蔓延。去中心化交易所开发商 Shipyard Software 的首席执行官兼联合创始人 Mark Lurie 周五向媒体表示：我不认为币安是在试图制造问题，但这个组织现在对我们所有人来说都是一种风险。任何时候，只要有一个参与者控制着大量的交易量，就会存在很多系统性风险。根据 CryptoCompare 的数据，随着FTX帝国破产，币安的市场份额已经增长到52.9%——是有史以来最大的，其衍生品的交易份额也增长到67.2%。在周三美国参议院委员会关于FTX的听证会上，田纳西州参议员 Bill Hagerty 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>老大的地位无法撼动。","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$老大的地位无法撼动。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85eb093c725376fa2938ecbe7064beed","width":"720","height":"1537"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692885326","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607178287,"gmtCreate":1639518635015,"gmtModify":1639518635015,"author":{"id":"3575083547919829","authorId":"3575083547919829","name":"大玉姐","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9f1319fd18ddddf3b495e8dab3749a1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575083547919829","authorIdStr":"3575083547919829"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"经验有时候未必靠谱，出人意料才是正常的。","listText":"经验有时候未必靠谱，出人意料才是正常的。","text":"经验有时候未必靠谱，出人意料才是正常的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607178287","repostId":"2191931329","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2191931329","pubTimestamp":1639474969,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2191931329?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 17:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴：当美联储开始加息，会发生什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2191931329","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"如果市场预期正确，明年上半年美联储将启动另一个紧缩周期。\n当美联储加息时，通常会发生什么？\n德意志银行研究部通过对过往历史上美联储加息后的市场变化进行回顾后发现，从首次加息算起，通常加息第一年经济增长","content":"<p>如果市场预期正确，明年上半年美联储将启动另一个紧缩周期。</p>\n<p>当美联储加息时，通常会发生什么？</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>研究部通过对过往历史上美联储加息后的市场变化进行回顾后发现，从首次加息算起，<b>通常加息第一年经济增长保持强劲，通胀继续上升，股市继续上涨，信贷紧缩，债券收益率曲线趋平；到了第二年，经济增长开始放缓，股市趋于平稳，信贷开始扩大，债券收益率下降。</b></p>\n<p><b>自1955年以来，一共有13个独立的加息周期，平均时间不到2年。</b>如果从宣布加息当天开始计算，<b>历史上的衰退则平均会在3-3.5年后出现。</b>不过，1980年的加息到1981年的衰退只隔了11个月，但1983年的加息到1990年的衰退则隔了86个月。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c31efda7cdde544625b45a04a91847f0\" tg-width=\"722\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>常见的一个模式是，<b>增长放缓通常发生在加息的一年后</b>。这与货币政策的滞后性有关，一般货币政策的全面效应可能需要几个季度才能显现。</p>\n<p>考虑到加息后最早出现衰退的时间是11个月，那么<b>从统计上看，2022年出现负增长的可能性很低</b>。如果历史可信的话，这种可能性将从2023年起不断增加。</p>\n<h2>加息周期中的宏观经济</h2>\n<p>在加息开启之后，<b>名义和实际GDP都会在第二年开始出现增速放缓，但通胀并没有这个趋势。</b></p>\n<p>平均而言，在加息周期的第一年，实际GDP增长为+4.8%，但在第二年放缓至+2.7%，第三年为+2.1%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8993e9e70f1a67a81fcd4c8aefc2ab7c\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>在紧缩周期开始后，名义GDP中也出现同样的现象。第一年平均增长8.5%，但第二年放缓至6.5%，第三年增长5.8%，这是一个主要的趋势。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e06d1d87d68cf5570c03d53192fab33a\" tg-width=\"715\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>然而在通胀方面并没有类似的现象。通胀可能是加息周期开始的主要原因，但历史表明，抑制通胀需要一段时间。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5108efa691e5735afce776a9feefe7\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>平均而言，通货膨胀率已经从第一次加息后一年的+3.8%上升到第二年的+4.5%。也就是说，这在很大程度上是一种相关性而非因果关系，因为加息周期开始的首要原因往往是通胀压力，而通胀具有惯性。</p>\n<h2>加息周期中的资本市场</h2>\n<p>加息周期开启后，<b>股指与债券收益率变化相似，通常在首次加息的9个月到一年后开始走低</b>。</p>\n<p>标准500普尔指数的平均价格在加息周期的第一年往往有坚实的增长，一年后的平均回报率为7.7%。<b>在紧缩周期开始后的253天后回报率开始走低，直到第452天后才突破这个最高值。</b></p>\n<p>平均而言，在13个加息周期中，标普500指数在周期开始后的9-10个月里平均回报均不为正，<b>但紧缩两年后，指数开始上涨。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3661883cf2b94b5451fc8dbc75d7b9d3\" tg-width=\"1076\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>10年期美国国债收益率也是类似的变化。在加息第一年，平均收益率上升超过111个基点，但不久之后收益率又开始下降。实际上加息周期的第二和第三年都在下降。</p>\n<p>值得注意的是，<b>在首次加息前的12个月里，收益率往往会下降，但在首次加息结束后又开始上升。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cd7733f4ae7e7deaeaf508f82c8ef5c\" tg-width=\"1180\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>而通常用作衰退指标的美国国债2s10s利差曲线斜率，<b>在加息的第一年有一个明显的趋平趋势，在之后转为稳定。</b></p>\n<p>在加息开始时，2s10s曲线以平均100个基点的绝对水平开始，在周期开始一年后，曲线趋于平缓。在13个加息周期的样本的6个案例中，该曲线在一年后发生反转。因为从反转到衰退通常只需要不到18个月，而从首次加息到衰退通常需要3-3.5年。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bddd3823d782476c112c09fcae4588ff\" tg-width=\"782\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>信贷方面，从历史上看，<b>BBB信用利差在加息第一年会收窄，大约收窄47个基点。之后利差趋于扩大，在加息周期开始三年后几乎回到原本水平。</b>在首次加息开始时，又会出现显著变化。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0faf41f9cb4fded40d7d067946114d89\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>因此，如果历史是可信的，当美联储在2022年上半年首次加息时，它将在随后的两到三年内对经济和金融市场产生影响。</p>\n<p>当然，这一次可能会有所不同，这是一个不寻常的周期，不过历史分析中已经出现了不容忽视的明显趋势。</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴：当美联储开始加息，会发生什么？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴：当美联储开始加息，会发生什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-14 17:42 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3647246><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>如果市场预期正确，明年上半年美联储将启动另一个紧缩周期。\n当美联储加息时，通常会发生什么？\n德意志银行研究部通过对过往历史上美联储加息后的市场变化进行回顾后发现，从首次加息算起，通常加息第一年经济增长保持强劲，通胀继续上升，股市继续上涨，信贷紧缩，债券收益率曲线趋平；到了第二年，经济增长开始放缓，股市趋于平稳，信贷开始扩大，债券收益率下降。\n自1955年以来，一共有13个独立的加息周期，平均时间...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3647246\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0771f6361d74a78ebbf8c2fdc55c6b7","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指反向ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3647246","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2191931329","content_text":"如果市场预期正确，明年上半年美联储将启动另一个紧缩周期。\n当美联储加息时，通常会发生什么？\n德意志银行研究部通过对过往历史上美联储加息后的市场变化进行回顾后发现，从首次加息算起，通常加息第一年经济增长保持强劲，通胀继续上升，股市继续上涨，信贷紧缩，债券收益率曲线趋平；到了第二年，经济增长开始放缓，股市趋于平稳，信贷开始扩大，债券收益率下降。\n自1955年以来，一共有13个独立的加息周期，平均时间不到2年。如果从宣布加息当天开始计算，历史上的衰退则平均会在3-3.5年后出现。不过，1980年的加息到1981年的衰退只隔了11个月，但1983年的加息到1990年的衰退则隔了86个月。\n\n常见的一个模式是，增长放缓通常发生在加息的一年后。这与货币政策的滞后性有关，一般货币政策的全面效应可能需要几个季度才能显现。\n考虑到加息后最早出现衰退的时间是11个月，那么从统计上看，2022年出现负增长的可能性很低。如果历史可信的话，这种可能性将从2023年起不断增加。\n加息周期中的宏观经济\n在加息开启之后，名义和实际GDP都会在第二年开始出现增速放缓，但通胀并没有这个趋势。\n平均而言，在加息周期的第一年，实际GDP增长为+4.8%，但在第二年放缓至+2.7%，第三年为+2.1%。\n\n在紧缩周期开始后，名义GDP中也出现同样的现象。第一年平均增长8.5%，但第二年放缓至6.5%，第三年增长5.8%，这是一个主要的趋势。\n\n然而在通胀方面并没有类似的现象。通胀可能是加息周期开始的主要原因，但历史表明，抑制通胀需要一段时间。\n\n平均而言，通货膨胀率已经从第一次加息后一年的+3.8%上升到第二年的+4.5%。也就是说，这在很大程度上是一种相关性而非因果关系，因为加息周期开始的首要原因往往是通胀压力，而通胀具有惯性。\n加息周期中的资本市场\n加息周期开启后，股指与债券收益率变化相似，通常在首次加息的9个月到一年后开始走低。\n标准500普尔指数的平均价格在加息周期的第一年往往有坚实的增长，一年后的平均回报率为7.7%。在紧缩周期开始后的253天后回报率开始走低，直到第452天后才突破这个最高值。\n平均而言，在13个加息周期中，标普500指数在周期开始后的9-10个月里平均回报均不为正，但紧缩两年后，指数开始上涨。\n\n10年期美国国债收益率也是类似的变化。在加息第一年，平均收益率上升超过111个基点，但不久之后收益率又开始下降。实际上加息周期的第二和第三年都在下降。\n值得注意的是，在首次加息前的12个月里，收益率往往会下降，但在首次加息结束后又开始上升。\n\n而通常用作衰退指标的美国国债2s10s利差曲线斜率，在加息的第一年有一个明显的趋平趋势，在之后转为稳定。\n在加息开始时，2s10s曲线以平均100个基点的绝对水平开始，在周期开始一年后，曲线趋于平缓。在13个加息周期的样本的6个案例中，该曲线在一年后发生反转。因为从反转到衰退通常只需要不到18个月，而从首次加息到衰退通常需要3-3.5年。\n\n信贷方面，从历史上看，BBB信用利差在加息第一年会收窄，大约收窄47个基点。之后利差趋于扩大，在加息周期开始三年后几乎回到原本水平。在首次加息开始时，又会出现显著变化。\n\n因此，如果历史是可信的，当美联储在2022年上半年首次加息时，它将在随后的两到三年内对经济和金融市场产生影响。\n当然，这一次可能会有所不同，这是一个不寻常的周期，不过历史分析中已经出现了不容忽视的明显趋势。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601349309,"gmtCreate":1638493994979,"gmtModify":1638493994979,"author":{"id":"3575083547919829","authorId":"3575083547919829","name":"大玉姐","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9f1319fd18ddddf3b495e8dab3749a1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575083547919829","authorIdStr":"3575083547919829"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"继续","listText":"继续","text":"继续","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601349309","repostId":"1128063365","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1128063365","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1638489207,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1128063365?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-03 07:53","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"昨夜今晨：美股大幅反弹！东南亚Grab首秀收跌超20%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128063365","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①美股三大股指周四大幅反弹，道指和标普500指数收复上一交易日的失地；②热门中概股涨跌互现，新能源汽车股普跌；③因OPEC+坚持其逐步提高产量的政策，原油V形大反转；④东南亚Grab首秀收跌超2","content":"<blockquote>\n 摘要：①美股三大股指周四大幅反弹，道指和标普500指数收复上一交易日的失地；②热门中概股涨跌互现，新能源汽车股普跌；③因OPEC+坚持其逐步提高产量的政策，原油V形大反转；④东南亚Grab首秀收跌超20%。\n</blockquote>\n<p>海外市场</p>\n<p>1、美股周四大幅反弹！道指涨近2% 热门中概股普跌</p>\n<p>美股三大股指周四大幅反弹，道指和标普500指数收复了上一交易日的失地，其中标普500指数11个板块全部录得上涨。截至收盘，道指涨1.82%，纳指涨0.83%，标普500指数涨1.42%。银行股集体上涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>涨近4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>涨近3%。</p>\n<p>2、热门中概股涨跌互现 新能源汽车股普跌</p>\n<p>美股三大指数集体上涨，道指、标普收复前一日跌幅，截止收盘，道指涨1.82%，纳指涨0.83%，标普500指数涨1.42%。</p>\n<p>热门中概股涨跌互现，新能源汽车股普跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>跌超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>跌超3%。</p>\n<p>3、奥密克戎不确定性太强 欧股或将持续出现涨跌交替行情</p>\n<p>欧洲股市周四下跌，追踪隔夜美国股市的下滑，主要原因还是对奥密克戎病毒变体的担忧以及美国加息时间可能早于预期。</p>\n<p>泛欧斯托克600指数收盘下跌4.40点，跌幅0.93%，报466.46点；德国DAX30指数收盘下跌210.91点，跌幅1.36%，报15261.76点。</p>\n<p>4、油价在动荡中上行 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>一致看高</p>\n<p>油价周四在动荡后走高。因为OPEC+坚持其逐步提高产量的政策，并且市场考虑了 Omicron 冠状病毒变种的严重性。</p>\n<p>截至收盘，美国WTI原油期货上涨144美分，涨幅2.20%，报67.01美元/桶；布伦特期货上涨141美分，涨幅2.05%，报70.27美元/桶。</p>\n<p>5、鲍威尔与耶伦唱双簧吓坏多头 黄金下挫至一个月低点</p>\n<p>周四，金价一度下跌逾1%，至一个月低点，原因是投资者注意到美国货币政策似乎趋于鹰派的迹象，这些迹象可能会在未来遏制通胀的上涨。</p>\n<p>美市尾盘，现货黄金收报1768.27美元/盎司，下跌12.70美元或0.71%，日内最高触及1783.28美元，最低触及1762.05美元，为11月3日以来的最低水平。</p>\n<p>国际宏观</p>\n<p>1、美国会计划延长联邦政府资金支持至2月18日以避免政府停摆</p>\n<p>美国众议院拨款委员会主席罗莎·德劳罗发表声明，称众议院已就一项短期政府拨款法案达成协议，该法案将延长联邦政府的资金支持至2月18日，以避免政府停摆。12月3日为联邦政府获得资金的最后期限，如果资金支持停止，部分联邦政府机构将因预算问题面临关门停摆风险。预计众议院最快将在2日当天投票并通过延长拨款的拨款法案，但消息人士透露，参议院的部分共和党议员正试图威胁拜登就疫苗授权问题达成妥协，否则将搁置该法案。</p>\n<p>2、美国发现第二例omicron病例 此前曾在纽约参加大型活动并打过加强针</p>\n<p>该名病例于11月19日至21日在Javits中心参加了纽约动漫展纽约市长称，“我们应该假设纽约市存在社区传播”</p>\n<p>美国明尼苏达州一位居民在最近到纽约市参加了一个大型活动后，被确诊感染omicron变异株。</p>\n<p>3、欧佩克与非欧佩克产油国决定明年1月日均上调40万桶石油产量</p>\n<p>当地时间12月2日，石油输出国组织与非欧佩克产油国第23次部长级会议在线上举行。会议重申了参与国在《合作宣言》中的持续承诺，致力于确保石油市场的稳定与平衡。各方再次确认欧佩克与非欧佩克产油国第19次部长级会议批准的产量调整计划和月度产量调整机制，决定2022年1月将总产量日均上调40万桶。</p>\n<p>4、美国两党主要议员就权宜支出法案达成协议 联邦政府有望避免关门</p>\n<p>美国国会两党领导人就权宜支出法案达成一致，以求在周五午夜之后避免政府关门，计划周四晚些时候交由众议院表决。不过仍有小部分共和党参议员威胁说不会让法案在最后期限前通过。</p>\n<p>该法案将为美国政府机构提供资金直至2月18日，必须周五午夜前获得参众两院表决通过才能避免联邦政府停摆。民主党希望借此获得更多时间，以便在12月表决通过约2万亿美元的税收，气候和社会支出法案，及提高美国债务上限。</p>\n<p>5、OPEC+意外维持1月增产计划 但同时也留了一道“后门”</p>\n<p>OPEC+同意继续推进1月增产计划，并暗示一旦omicron毒株对需求构成的风险变得更明朗，他们随时可能重新讨论产量决定。</p>\n<p>几位不具名代表称，OPEC+周四同意在1月按计划向全球市场每天增加40万桶原油。不过他们也留了道“后门”，即如果市场发生变化，可以临时调整产量政策。</p>\n<p>6、IMF警告称某些国家若无债务重组可能出现经济崩溃</p>\n<p>IMF警告说，除非世界上最富裕国家的债权人暂停一些低收入国家的偿债义务并帮助重新谈判新条款，否则这些国家将出现“经济崩溃”。IMF总裁格奥尔基耶娃和策略、政策和评估部门主管Ceyla Pazarbasioglu周四在博客中表示，约60%的世界最贫穷国家正处于高风险或已经陷入债务困境，这个比例是2015年的两倍。</p>\n<p>公司新闻</p>\n<p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1137519384\" target=\"_blank\">微博即将登陆港交所 定价每股272.80港元</a></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>香港IPO最终发售价为每股272.8港元，预计筹资总额约15亿港元。根据此前公告，微博计划为全球发售1100万股公司A类普通股，包括550万股新股份及550万股销售股份。全球发售初步包括香港公开发售的110万股新股份及国际发售的990万股发售股份，分别占全球发售中发售股份总数的10%及90%。</p>\n<p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2188517110\" target=\"_blank\">美国联邦贸易委员会提起诉讼以阻拦英伟达收购芯片设计公司Arm</a></p>\n<p>美国反垄断部门提起诉讼，以阻拦<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>以400亿美元收购Arm Ltd．，称这笔交易有损半导体市场的竞争。</p>\n<p>联邦贸易委员会周四公告称，这笔收购将使英伟达拥有对同行公司赖以开发芯片的计算技术和设计的控制权。</p>\n<p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2188517717\" target=\"_blank\">东南亚独角兽Grab上市首日高开逾18% 盘中破发收跌超20%</a></p>\n<p>东南亚最大的叫车服务和快递公司Grab周四正式在纳斯达克交易，代码“GRAB”，此前该公司与“特殊目的收购公司”达成近400亿美元的合并交易。</p>\n<p>Grab上市当日震荡激烈。开盘报13.06美元，较Altimeter周三收盘价11.01美元上涨18.62%。盘中高点一度达到13.29美元，涨幅20%。不过此后Grab盘中“破发”，且大体呈一路下行态势。全日最低8.13美元，意味着破发约26%，这一最低点也比IPO当日的日内高点13.29美元跌去近40%。Grab最终收盘大跌21%，收于8.75美元。</p>\n<p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2188022512\" target=\"_blank\">Omicron变种病毒引发投资者恐慌 却可能是这家公司的福音</a></p>\n<p>据投资研究公司Gordon Haskett称，Omicron变种病毒的出现可能给DoorDash的股东带来一线希望。Gordon Haskett分析师Robert Mollins将DoorDash的评级为从持有提高至买入，并在周三给客户的一份报告中表示，随着对新冠疫情的担忧再次出现，这家食品配送APP的股价可能会反弹。</p>\n<p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2188512017\" target=\"_blank\">莫德纳上诉失败 疫苗专利到底归谁</a></p>\n<p>靠新冠疫苗赚得盆满钵满的莫德纳，现在却面临着专利侵权的指控。当地时间周三，美国联邦上诉法院驳回了莫德纳对加拿大药厂Arbutus Biopharma提出的专利挑战。法官认为，Arbutus Biopharma指控莫德纳使用其专利技术用于研发新冠疫苗，相关诉讼成立，裁定莫德纳挑战专利委员会裁决的上诉失败。</p>\n<p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2188615517\" target=\"_blank\">因外汇串通交易 五家欧洲银行遭欧盟罚款3.44亿欧元</a></p>\n<p>欧盟委员会当地时间12月2日宣布，因参与外汇市场串通交易违反欧盟反卡特尔法规，欧盟决定对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>集团、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">巴克莱银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBS\">苏格兰皇家银行</a>、汇丰银行和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>银行处以总额3.44亿欧元的罚款。</p>\n<p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1100774989\" target=\"_blank\">押中股票大赚后搞实业 传沙特公共投资基金与鸿海商讨合作造车</a></p>\n<p>据媒体周四傍晚援引知情人士报道，鸿海科技集团与沙特阿拉伯接近敲定协议，设立合资公司生产电动车。</p>\n<p>报道称，掌管4500亿美元的沙特公共投资基金将设立一个名为Velocity的实体，这也将是新公司的控股股东。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>昨夜今晨：美股大幅反弹！东南亚Grab首秀收跌超20%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n昨夜今晨：美股大幅反弹！东南亚Grab首秀收跌超20%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-12-03 07:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n 摘要：①美股三大股指周四大幅反弹，道指和标普500指数收复上一交易日的失地；②热门中概股涨跌互现，新能源汽车股普跌；③因OPEC+坚持其逐步提高产量的政策，原油V形大反转；④东南亚Grab首秀收跌超20%。\n</blockquote>\n<p>海外市场</p>\n<p>1、美股周四大幅反弹！道指涨近2% 热门中概股普跌</p>\n<p>美股三大股指周四大幅反弹，道指和标普500指数收复了上一交易日的失地，其中标普500指数11个板块全部录得上涨。截至收盘，道指涨1.82%，纳指涨0.83%，标普500指数涨1.42%。银行股集体上涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>涨近4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>涨近3%。</p>\n<p>2、热门中概股涨跌互现 新能源汽车股普跌</p>\n<p>美股三大指数集体上涨，道指、标普收复前一日跌幅，截止收盘，道指涨1.82%，纳指涨0.83%，标普500指数涨1.42%。</p>\n<p>热门中概股涨跌互现，新能源汽车股普跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>跌超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>跌超3%。</p>\n<p>3、奥密克戎不确定性太强 欧股或将持续出现涨跌交替行情</p>\n<p>欧洲股市周四下跌，追踪隔夜美国股市的下滑，主要原因还是对奥密克戎病毒变体的担忧以及美国加息时间可能早于预期。</p>\n<p>泛欧斯托克600指数收盘下跌4.40点，跌幅0.93%，报466.46点；德国DAX30指数收盘下跌210.91点，跌幅1.36%，报15261.76点。</p>\n<p>4、油价在动荡中上行 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>一致看高</p>\n<p>油价周四在动荡后走高。因为OPEC+坚持其逐步提高产量的政策，并且市场考虑了 Omicron 冠状病毒变种的严重性。</p>\n<p>截至收盘，美国WTI原油期货上涨144美分，涨幅2.20%，报67.01美元/桶；布伦特期货上涨141美分，涨幅2.05%，报70.27美元/桶。</p>\n<p>5、鲍威尔与耶伦唱双簧吓坏多头 黄金下挫至一个月低点</p>\n<p>周四，金价一度下跌逾1%，至一个月低点，原因是投资者注意到美国货币政策似乎趋于鹰派的迹象，这些迹象可能会在未来遏制通胀的上涨。</p>\n<p>美市尾盘，现货黄金收报1768.27美元/盎司，下跌12.70美元或0.71%，日内最高触及1783.28美元，最低触及1762.05美元，为11月3日以来的最低水平。</p>\n<p>国际宏观</p>\n<p>1、美国会计划延长联邦政府资金支持至2月18日以避免政府停摆</p>\n<p>美国众议院拨款委员会主席罗莎·德劳罗发表声明，称众议院已就一项短期政府拨款法案达成协议，该法案将延长联邦政府的资金支持至2月18日，以避免政府停摆。12月3日为联邦政府获得资金的最后期限，如果资金支持停止，部分联邦政府机构将因预算问题面临关门停摆风险。预计众议院最快将在2日当天投票并通过延长拨款的拨款法案，但消息人士透露，参议院的部分共和党议员正试图威胁拜登就疫苗授权问题达成妥协，否则将搁置该法案。</p>\n<p>2、美国发现第二例omicron病例 此前曾在纽约参加大型活动并打过加强针</p>\n<p>该名病例于11月19日至21日在Javits中心参加了纽约动漫展纽约市长称，“我们应该假设纽约市存在社区传播”</p>\n<p>美国明尼苏达州一位居民在最近到纽约市参加了一个大型活动后，被确诊感染omicron变异株。</p>\n<p>3、欧佩克与非欧佩克产油国决定明年1月日均上调40万桶石油产量</p>\n<p>当地时间12月2日，石油输出国组织与非欧佩克产油国第23次部长级会议在线上举行。会议重申了参与国在《合作宣言》中的持续承诺，致力于确保石油市场的稳定与平衡。各方再次确认欧佩克与非欧佩克产油国第19次部长级会议批准的产量调整计划和月度产量调整机制，决定2022年1月将总产量日均上调40万桶。</p>\n<p>4、美国两党主要议员就权宜支出法案达成协议 联邦政府有望避免关门</p>\n<p>美国国会两党领导人就权宜支出法案达成一致，以求在周五午夜之后避免政府关门，计划周四晚些时候交由众议院表决。不过仍有小部分共和党参议员威胁说不会让法案在最后期限前通过。</p>\n<p>该法案将为美国政府机构提供资金直至2月18日，必须周五午夜前获得参众两院表决通过才能避免联邦政府停摆。民主党希望借此获得更多时间，以便在12月表决通过约2万亿美元的税收，气候和社会支出法案，及提高美国债务上限。</p>\n<p>5、OPEC+意外维持1月增产计划 但同时也留了一道“后门”</p>\n<p>OPEC+同意继续推进1月增产计划，并暗示一旦omicron毒株对需求构成的风险变得更明朗，他们随时可能重新讨论产量决定。</p>\n<p>几位不具名代表称，OPEC+周四同意在1月按计划向全球市场每天增加40万桶原油。不过他们也留了道“后门”，即如果市场发生变化，可以临时调整产量政策。</p>\n<p>6、IMF警告称某些国家若无债务重组可能出现经济崩溃</p>\n<p>IMF警告说，除非世界上最富裕国家的债权人暂停一些低收入国家的偿债义务并帮助重新谈判新条款，否则这些国家将出现“经济崩溃”。IMF总裁格奥尔基耶娃和策略、政策和评估部门主管Ceyla Pazarbasioglu周四在博客中表示，约60%的世界最贫穷国家正处于高风险或已经陷入债务困境，这个比例是2015年的两倍。</p>\n<p>公司新闻</p>\n<p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1137519384\" target=\"_blank\">微博即将登陆港交所 定价每股272.80港元</a></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>香港IPO最终发售价为每股272.8港元，预计筹资总额约15亿港元。根据此前公告，微博计划为全球发售1100万股公司A类普通股，包括550万股新股份及550万股销售股份。全球发售初步包括香港公开发售的110万股新股份及国际发售的990万股发售股份，分别占全球发售中发售股份总数的10%及90%。</p>\n<p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2188517110\" target=\"_blank\">美国联邦贸易委员会提起诉讼以阻拦英伟达收购芯片设计公司Arm</a></p>\n<p>美国反垄断部门提起诉讼，以阻拦<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>以400亿美元收购Arm Ltd．，称这笔交易有损半导体市场的竞争。</p>\n<p>联邦贸易委员会周四公告称，这笔收购将使英伟达拥有对同行公司赖以开发芯片的计算技术和设计的控制权。</p>\n<p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2188517717\" target=\"_blank\">东南亚独角兽Grab上市首日高开逾18% 盘中破发收跌超20%</a></p>\n<p>东南亚最大的叫车服务和快递公司Grab周四正式在纳斯达克交易，代码“GRAB”，此前该公司与“特殊目的收购公司”达成近400亿美元的合并交易。</p>\n<p>Grab上市当日震荡激烈。开盘报13.06美元，较Altimeter周三收盘价11.01美元上涨18.62%。盘中高点一度达到13.29美元，涨幅20%。不过此后Grab盘中“破发”，且大体呈一路下行态势。全日最低8.13美元，意味着破发约26%，这一最低点也比IPO当日的日内高点13.29美元跌去近40%。Grab最终收盘大跌21%，收于8.75美元。</p>\n<p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2188022512\" target=\"_blank\">Omicron变种病毒引发投资者恐慌 却可能是这家公司的福音</a></p>\n<p>据投资研究公司Gordon Haskett称，Omicron变种病毒的出现可能给DoorDash的股东带来一线希望。Gordon Haskett分析师Robert Mollins将DoorDash的评级为从持有提高至买入，并在周三给客户的一份报告中表示，随着对新冠疫情的担忧再次出现，这家食品配送APP的股价可能会反弹。</p>\n<p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2188512017\" target=\"_blank\">莫德纳上诉失败 疫苗专利到底归谁</a></p>\n<p>靠新冠疫苗赚得盆满钵满的莫德纳，现在却面临着专利侵权的指控。当地时间周三，美国联邦上诉法院驳回了莫德纳对加拿大药厂Arbutus Biopharma提出的专利挑战。法官认为，Arbutus Biopharma指控莫德纳使用其专利技术用于研发新冠疫苗，相关诉讼成立，裁定莫德纳挑战专利委员会裁决的上诉失败。</p>\n<p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2188615517\" target=\"_blank\">因外汇串通交易 五家欧洲银行遭欧盟罚款3.44亿欧元</a></p>\n<p>欧盟委员会当地时间12月2日宣布，因参与外汇市场串通交易违反欧盟反卡特尔法规，欧盟决定对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>集团、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">巴克莱银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBS\">苏格兰皇家银行</a>、汇丰银行和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>银行处以总额3.44亿欧元的罚款。</p>\n<p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1100774989\" target=\"_blank\">押中股票大赚后搞实业 传沙特公共投资基金与鸿海商讨合作造车</a></p>\n<p>据媒体周四傍晚援引知情人士报道，鸿海科技集团与沙特阿拉伯接近敲定协议，设立合资公司生产电动车。</p>\n<p>报道称，掌管4500亿美元的沙特公共投资基金将设立一个名为Velocity的实体，这也将是新公司的控股股东。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128063365","content_text":"摘要：①美股三大股指周四大幅反弹，道指和标普500指数收复上一交易日的失地；②热门中概股涨跌互现，新能源汽车股普跌；③因OPEC+坚持其逐步提高产量的政策，原油V形大反转；④东南亚Grab首秀收跌超20%。\n\n海外市场\n1、美股周四大幅反弹！道指涨近2% 热门中概股普跌\n美股三大股指周四大幅反弹，道指和标普500指数收复了上一交易日的失地，其中标普500指数11个板块全部录得上涨。截至收盘，道指涨1.82%，纳指涨0.83%，标普500指数涨1.42%。银行股集体上涨，摩根士丹利、富国银行涨近4%，高盛、美国银行涨近3%。\n2、热门中概股涨跌互现 新能源汽车股普跌\n美股三大指数集体上涨，道指、标普收复前一日跌幅，截止收盘，道指涨1.82%，纳指涨0.83%，标普500指数涨1.42%。\n热门中概股涨跌互现，新能源汽车股普跌，小鹏汽车、蔚来跌超5%，理想汽车跌超3%。\n3、奥密克戎不确定性太强 欧股或将持续出现涨跌交替行情\n欧洲股市周四下跌，追踪隔夜美国股市的下滑，主要原因还是对奥密克戎病毒变体的担忧以及美国加息时间可能早于预期。\n泛欧斯托克600指数收盘下跌4.40点，跌幅0.93%，报466.46点；德国DAX30指数收盘下跌210.91点，跌幅1.36%，报15261.76点。\n4、油价在动荡中上行 摩根大通、高盛一致看高\n油价周四在动荡后走高。因为OPEC+坚持其逐步提高产量的政策，并且市场考虑了 Omicron 冠状病毒变种的严重性。\n截至收盘，美国WTI原油期货上涨144美分，涨幅2.20%，报67.01美元/桶；布伦特期货上涨141美分，涨幅2.05%，报70.27美元/桶。\n5、鲍威尔与耶伦唱双簧吓坏多头 黄金下挫至一个月低点\n周四，金价一度下跌逾1%，至一个月低点，原因是投资者注意到美国货币政策似乎趋于鹰派的迹象，这些迹象可能会在未来遏制通胀的上涨。\n美市尾盘，现货黄金收报1768.27美元/盎司，下跌12.70美元或0.71%，日内最高触及1783.28美元，最低触及1762.05美元，为11月3日以来的最低水平。\n国际宏观\n1、美国会计划延长联邦政府资金支持至2月18日以避免政府停摆\n美国众议院拨款委员会主席罗莎·德劳罗发表声明，称众议院已就一项短期政府拨款法案达成协议，该法案将延长联邦政府的资金支持至2月18日，以避免政府停摆。12月3日为联邦政府获得资金的最后期限，如果资金支持停止，部分联邦政府机构将因预算问题面临关门停摆风险。预计众议院最快将在2日当天投票并通过延长拨款的拨款法案，但消息人士透露，参议院的部分共和党议员正试图威胁拜登就疫苗授权问题达成妥协，否则将搁置该法案。\n2、美国发现第二例omicron病例 此前曾在纽约参加大型活动并打过加强针\n该名病例于11月19日至21日在Javits中心参加了纽约动漫展纽约市长称，“我们应该假设纽约市存在社区传播”\n美国明尼苏达州一位居民在最近到纽约市参加了一个大型活动后，被确诊感染omicron变异株。\n3、欧佩克与非欧佩克产油国决定明年1月日均上调40万桶石油产量\n当地时间12月2日，石油输出国组织与非欧佩克产油国第23次部长级会议在线上举行。会议重申了参与国在《合作宣言》中的持续承诺，致力于确保石油市场的稳定与平衡。各方再次确认欧佩克与非欧佩克产油国第19次部长级会议批准的产量调整计划和月度产量调整机制，决定2022年1月将总产量日均上调40万桶。\n4、美国两党主要议员就权宜支出法案达成协议 联邦政府有望避免关门\n美国国会两党领导人就权宜支出法案达成一致，以求在周五午夜之后避免政府关门，计划周四晚些时候交由众议院表决。不过仍有小部分共和党参议员威胁说不会让法案在最后期限前通过。\n该法案将为美国政府机构提供资金直至2月18日，必须周五午夜前获得参众两院表决通过才能避免联邦政府停摆。民主党希望借此获得更多时间，以便在12月表决通过约2万亿美元的税收，气候和社会支出法案，及提高美国债务上限。\n5、OPEC+意外维持1月增产计划 但同时也留了一道“后门”\nOPEC+同意继续推进1月增产计划，并暗示一旦omicron毒株对需求构成的风险变得更明朗，他们随时可能重新讨论产量决定。\n几位不具名代表称，OPEC+周四同意在1月按计划向全球市场每天增加40万桶原油。不过他们也留了道“后门”，即如果市场发生变化，可以临时调整产量政策。\n6、IMF警告称某些国家若无债务重组可能出现经济崩溃\nIMF警告说，除非世界上最富裕国家的债权人暂停一些低收入国家的偿债义务并帮助重新谈判新条款，否则这些国家将出现“经济崩溃”。IMF总裁格奥尔基耶娃和策略、政策和评估部门主管Ceyla Pazarbasioglu周四在博客中表示，约60%的世界最贫穷国家正处于高风险或已经陷入债务困境，这个比例是2015年的两倍。\n公司新闻\n1、微博即将登陆港交所 定价每股272.80港元\n微博香港IPO最终发售价为每股272.8港元，预计筹资总额约15亿港元。根据此前公告，微博计划为全球发售1100万股公司A类普通股，包括550万股新股份及550万股销售股份。全球发售初步包括香港公开发售的110万股新股份及国际发售的990万股发售股份，分别占全球发售中发售股份总数的10%及90%。\n2、美国联邦贸易委员会提起诉讼以阻拦英伟达收购芯片设计公司Arm\n美国反垄断部门提起诉讼，以阻拦英伟达以400亿美元收购Arm Ltd．，称这笔交易有损半导体市场的竞争。\n联邦贸易委员会周四公告称，这笔收购将使英伟达拥有对同行公司赖以开发芯片的计算技术和设计的控制权。\n3、东南亚独角兽Grab上市首日高开逾18% 盘中破发收跌超20%\n东南亚最大的叫车服务和快递公司Grab周四正式在纳斯达克交易，代码“GRAB”，此前该公司与“特殊目的收购公司”达成近400亿美元的合并交易。\nGrab上市当日震荡激烈。开盘报13.06美元，较Altimeter周三收盘价11.01美元上涨18.62%。盘中高点一度达到13.29美元，涨幅20%。不过此后Grab盘中“破发”，且大体呈一路下行态势。全日最低8.13美元，意味着破发约26%，这一最低点也比IPO当日的日内高点13.29美元跌去近40%。Grab最终收盘大跌21%，收于8.75美元。\n4、Omicron变种病毒引发投资者恐慌 却可能是这家公司的福音\n据投资研究公司Gordon Haskett称，Omicron变种病毒的出现可能给DoorDash的股东带来一线希望。Gordon Haskett分析师Robert Mollins将DoorDash的评级为从持有提高至买入，并在周三给客户的一份报告中表示，随着对新冠疫情的担忧再次出现，这家食品配送APP的股价可能会反弹。\n5、莫德纳上诉失败 疫苗专利到底归谁\n靠新冠疫苗赚得盆满钵满的莫德纳，现在却面临着专利侵权的指控。当地时间周三，美国联邦上诉法院驳回了莫德纳对加拿大药厂Arbutus Biopharma提出的专利挑战。法官认为，Arbutus Biopharma指控莫德纳使用其专利技术用于研发新冠疫苗，相关诉讼成立，裁定莫德纳挑战专利委员会裁决的上诉失败。\n6、因外汇串通交易 五家欧洲银行遭欧盟罚款3.44亿欧元\n欧盟委员会当地时间12月2日宣布，因参与外汇市场串通交易违反欧盟反卡特尔法规，欧盟决定对瑞银集团、巴克莱银行、苏格兰皇家银行、汇丰银行和瑞士信贷银行处以总额3.44亿欧元的罚款。\n7、押中股票大赚后搞实业 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